Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - AFC South Breakdown + Broken Promises - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/11

Episode Date: July 11, 2023

Trevor Lawrence breakout in 2023? AFC South preview on today’s fantasy football podcast! Do Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry still have upside to be the RB1? Who from the Texans can be relevant for fantasy football teams? Plus, the best spots to pick from in 2023 fantasy football drafts. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for July 11th, 2023. Dive into the 2023 Ultimate Draft Kit + Draft Analyzer! UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on Twitter Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. Unless one has an affinity for looking ridiculously foolish, it is wise not to stumble aimlessly into a fantasy football draft. The Ultimate Draft Kit from the Fantasy Footballers contains all the information you need to avoid the jeers of your enemies and to snuff out any glint of hope in their souls. Imagine the gasps those trouser-wearing turnips will emit as you make yet another triumphant draft selection. Thank you. When you enter the draft room, you'll feel as if you were a monstrous beast let loose in a chicken coop. Head over to UltimateDraftKit.com today. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. With your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

Welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers Podcast, Tuesday, July 11th. And I got to admit something. I'm a little on edge today. Oh, okie dokie. What's going on? Well, if you glance over in the direction of Deucer's Alley, which we try not to do very often. It's light.

But if you look over there, look, my relationship to Jay Grizz is changing tremendously these days. Yeah. Is that because he insists that we call him Jay Riz now? No, that's not it, Mike. That doesn't help. Yeah, that's pretty ridiculous, Jay.

But I think it's more a matter of the bear problems we've been having in our lives. Oh, yeah. That's just not a sentence most people have to say. No, on bearstagram. Well, you see, what happened was... The algo got you. Yeah, like we go up north here in Arizona, which, believe it or not, I know that the storylines that have been all over Twitter

has been the magma hot days that we have been having. Yeah, you go up north so that it can be only 100. Yeah, 90 to 100, which is just right. And so you go up north a couple hours, and we have a lot of wooded areas. And I had heard my whole life that there were bears. Never seen one. 39 years of life, never seen a bear. In the last three months, the bears are back in town.

Yes. And we've had big bears crossing property up there. We've had bears attacks. Yeah, breaking into houses, going back into houses. I mean, bears are going. Eating people. I mean, it's a real bad problem baby bears roaming around uh scouting i'm assuming they're just looking for places to play uh they are really cute that's the problem the baby bears are really cute looking for the picnic baskets yeah those two um but no brooks none of this

means anything for the chicago bears this year but it could if you want to take that as an omen bears fans which i look why not maybe the bears are out because it's a big season for justin fields i'm all for it i'm sure that brooks is all about that because khalil harbert's like his uh my guy already yeah so uh i'm just saying jay grizz is i'm looking over my shoulder with a little bit more apprehension than years past. I have never carried bear spray around on me as much as I did this last weekend.

Oh, I thought you were carrying it now. No, you should have it for Jay. But when I look up and I see a giant grizzly bear, I feel like, where's my bear spray? He's coming right for us. It's a little different. We have an AFC South breakdown episode today. A little bit of news to talk about a quick question on today's show.

And we thank you for joining us once again on the fantasy footballers podcast three days a week right now in July. Just got done with a mock draft, including the deuces. Oh, great success. Saw a lot of positive feedback there. I came away from the Mac, that mock draft, great success. Saw a lot of positive feedback there. I,

I came away from the Mac, that mock draft, very tired. Um, good. Doing the narration of a mock draft with six people, uh, was more demanding than three.

And you guys did a good job. Like your team was especially well built Brooks. Thank you. It was a lot of fun. Uh, so we just got done with that we've got a another divisional breakdown today and on thursday you can find us on twitter at the ff ballers over on tiktok as well is what i'm told we're over there oh we're doing great things over

there um jason does a lot of dances i think yeah i mean that's sometimes people just you know want sexy time and so they go they're looking for me dancing classy bougie ratchet yeah that's that there you go uh join the foot.com that one's still popular no no mike it's not but i enjoy it because everything is that one stupid song i'm sure we've done that one too. We don't know what we've done on TikTok. It's really, we'll find out with you. We're going to go there after the show and find out what we've done over there.

The communities that join the foot.com. I encourage you to check that out. It's an opportunity for you to become a part of the foot clan. 30,000 plus. You get access to the discord server where you can find leagues and people to play with this is the time of year you're kind of building those leagues out or looking for people to come fill in a spot in your league a ton of other perks including the foot cast an extra weekly episode and those are always a lot of fun right now this

time of year here's the quick question of the day michael in iowa i lost my league last year i'm sorry michael punishment awaits me also you really lost but i also get to choose my draft spot for a 12 team league should i take the one spot and what slot do you prefer to draft from? I have two different answers for that question now. Because in a neutral situation, my favorite spot's the 103. That was going to be my answer. And I just take one of the wide receivers, Chase or Jefferson, or I take McCaffrey. But if I was Michael in Iowa, I would draft from the one spot.

Really? I would. I would just take Christian McCaffrey at the one spot yes so I am I personally prefer the 104 uh you brought up Jefferson and Chase I put Cooper Cup right there with them and then Christian McCaffrey I want one of those four what I found uh just today I joined a new uh underdog league and I got the 101 and I was disappointed because I was like I don't want to like I was like do I take Christian McCaffrey again that's who I usually take at the 101 do I almost went Jamar Chase I really didn't care which one of those four I got like I I just experienced that where I was like I wish I got a better second rounder because I'm

just as happy with any of those four and And I've been thinking lately, like, maybe we are dumb. Well, that's a given. Well, right, right, right. But maybe we as an entire fantasy community are dumb for not having Jamar Chase be the 101 consideration. Yeah, like the 101. I mean, he, you know, Justin Jefferson's the best wide receiver. You sure about that? You sure about that you sure about that because pretty sure I know he was the best last year he's obviously amazing I'm not trying to take anything away from Justin Jefferson but Jamar Chase you

just want him to be considered yeah I mean he's he's he's a freak and his quarter he's not having Kirk Cousins throw him the ball you know how dare you you want to talk about a a guy who could level up again Justin Jefferson's not leveling up from what he did last year but I could actually see that happening for Jamar Chase well it's just my thought yeah sorry sorry it kind of reminded me when we were questioning like Matthew Stafford and Cooper Cup with Sean McVay like that should really work and that's kind of how I feel about this Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, just coming into the prime of their career. Yeah, and it's that type of thinking that makes me want him to take

McCaffrey with the 101. Because you were in last place last year. And the biggest thing that's going to prevent that this year to me is power at the running back position. We like these wide receivers because we've had so much to molt with different running backs, but I feel like the biggest difference maker is – I don't think you guys disagree.

If you can lock in a good running back with the position scarcity issue, I imagine if you knew that McCaffrey would be what he was last year, that wouldn't be in doubt. Almost every season, the most powerful fantasy asset is a running back. Just their higher risk. It's hard with Chase because I think it's fair to consider him in that spot, but I do wonder why we wouldn't just give Jefferson the nod. Chase could level up.

Jefferson's not going to level up from the finishing at one, but last year Chase was hurt. He's never had a 90 reception season at least, so it does feel like he should. He had 87 with injury last year. Yeah, he was 87,046

at nine. No, I get it. I don't think you're wrong to do it. I don't think any of us would say that. Chase, Jefferson, Cup, McC was 87,046-9. No, I get it. I don't think you're wrong to do it. I don't think any of us would say that. Chase, Jefferson, Cup, McCaffrey. And if you wanted to say Eckler, I think you're fine doing that too. See, for me, it's Hill. I think we've had this discussion a few times, and I think Tyreek Hill is in that for me.

So anywhere from 101 to 105 is where I want to be. If you want to lock in McCaffrey that I have no problem with that go 101 otherwise hit that 105 and then you I mean your second player would then you get a little bit of a bump there too do you think that essentially you can't screw up with those top four that's that that's what it feels like to me I mean anyone can get injured but as far as like will their ability or talent or situation fall off or change or not be successful for fantasy no barring injury they're they're locked all right I'm going to give you some NFL news I need your thoughts on this is the uh kind of the second positive report in this off season. I mean, there've been kind of articles that have followed up events,

but Javante Williams, he said himself, the plan is for him to be clear for training camp. He says, I feel like I'm ready to go. It's about the valuation. Now the Broncos feel about it. Just seeing how I feel and how I'm moving is trying to get my speed back to

normal things like that. Javante Williams, that storyline is huge because it has an impact on, obviously, his ADP, where he's going to go in drafts. Samaj AP Ryan, we trust Sean Payton with the running game. Javante is a very talented player. This recovery never seemed really feasible, but positive report number one,

he was participating in OTAs positive report number two he expects to be cleared not for the season but for training camp so we're watching right but this would have huge ramifications if you know like Adrian Peterson he was a quick healer from an injury like this and was able to get back out on the field yeah it's part of the whole offseason has been for me at least when i'm thinking about giovante williams i know that this news is going to happen because this happens with everybody jk dobbins promised like that he would be ready for day one for training camp so much as Ian Rappaport had a source from the Ravens who said he's not going to be there for day one. Rappaport put that out.

J.K. Dobbins had some choice words for Rappaport saying, no, I will be there. Was not there. And then it's just then looking at the season of what happened to J.K. Dobbins, because their injuries are very similar. J.K. Dobbins wasn't ready to go at the beginning, then got re-hurt, which is a huge problem. That's a huge red flag for Javante Williams. It's not just, is he actually ready to go? It's, he's ready to go, but the chance that he injures something else in his lower body because of he's still trying to recover from such a devastating knee injury he becomes he

he's a really really risky pick but I but I know that the news is going to be positive because it's because it's almost always positive of these guys are they're ahead of schedule he's going to be there for training camp and then even if he's not there at the beginning of training camp, we expect him soon. And we're really hopeful he won't be on the pup. Oh, we're hopeful he's going to be able to start week one. So when you're drafting Javante or Samaj P. Ryan, you're making your bet.

And I'm going, yes, Adrian Peterson destroyed. He is the standard. He tore ACL, MCL after 12. Last week of the season, I think. It was after 12 weeks, and he rushed for 2,000 yards the next year. But he's not the only one. Frank Gore came back from his ACL two times collegiately, younger. Jamal Charles tore his ACL, came back for 1,500.

Sure, but those were just acl tears to my memory i i just i wanted to to color in the fact that like if the reports are positive like we don't want bad reports so if they're positive and he can play week one it will be a current surprise to us i'm saying if if it was javante had just torn his acl and not acl lcl uh what do we got posterior lateral corner like i mean he he wrecked his knee really unfortunately if it were a clean acl tear i would be willing to take the risk on javante williams does that mean you're out on him regardless of these reports this summer? Currently, yes. Yeah, I actually lean towards Mike's side.

I mean, obviously, if he's full participant in all of training camp, then that's out the window. You look at what's going on with Brees Hall's ADP, and you compare that to Javante's, and it's like no one seems to care that much about Brees Hall he's fine he's you know a very highly drafted pick and he had you know it's a couple weeks difference in the timeline uh for their injuries the the big issue here is what Mike was saying it's more than just the ACL um it was a it was a much more egregious injury although Brees was

more than the ACL as well. I'm guessing that right now Brees' ADP is too high, Javante's ADP is too low. They will settle somewhere nearer to each other. Brees was ACL and meniscus, so it wasn't multiple ligaments. So when I look at the bets that you make in fantasy, I find that the best odds is to bet against a guy off of the injury Javante has. Yeah, right now that bet is not an expensive bet. Fair.

Yeah, it's not costing you a lot. So the upside represents a lot more than where his ADP is. So, I mean, RB29 on underdog right now, 26 on sleeper. Are you taking Monty over him, Mike? Yes. Rashad White? Yeah, probably. Okay.

Alexander Madison for sure. Yeah, this news wasn't to say – I'm not making a declaration that he's going to be healthy. This was just passing along a second positive report of the offseason to say keep your eyes open because if he starts making progress like mike said in training camp he looks good he's taking first team reps this is not i mean this is going to be like kind of a quick swap swap to a different mindset for the denver backfield than i've been approaching it with like i've been looking at samaj a p ryan as a value late in drafts and if week one is giovante out there, I don't think the P Ryan value is there anymore at all.

No. If, if that training, you know, trying to stay water and be willing to, but it's just, you're like at this point of this recording, I am,

I'm not taking him at his ADP. I'm very happy for him. If this is the case, because it was, it was a major injury. Yeah. And for him and he's come back. He said, you know, I only have one way that I know how to run with violent intentions.

I'm going to be going as hard as I can possibly go. So I do expect if he's back out there to be himself. It's just a matter of is that four weeks in? Is that three weeks in? Do they take a lot of pressure off of him with P. Ryan to start the year? I mean, these are all things we don't know yet. We don't even know what this offense is going to look like under Peyton. So it should be interesting.

Let's get divisional. Well, it is our second divisional breakdown episode this year. Talking about offseason changes between 2022 and 2023. Looking at how these offenses could function today. We're in the AFC South. And we'll close it out like we do every divisional breakdown and make our predictions for who's going to win the division. Maybe the order of the division like we did last week.

Yeah, the order is going to be a little bit more important than the division winner, I'm guessing, at the end of this episode. We did the AFC North, which we all had Cincinnati winning. I believe both of you went Baltimore as the two. I went Cleveland as the two. Yep. Which, actually, you two were going opposite of the sportsbooks on that one. Mm-hmm.

And then you guys had the Browns in the basement with Pittsburgh above them. And I obviously, according to Twitter, hate Pittsburgh. And Baltimore. Don't forget that. And Baltimore. And all the teams that I didn't say are going to win the Super Bowl, to be fair. Yeah. Hater.

Last year in the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars won it at 9-8. Tennessee was 7-10, Colts 4-12, Texans 3-13. Just took overwhelming control of the division. Yeah, this was a bad division last year. Tennessee dealt with significant injuries. They could not get it going as the perennial favorite in that division of late. Colts had a disaster of a season. They did everything they could to lose.

Yeah, they were bad not just on Sunday, but on Saturday too. And then Houston, 3-13. So, they combined outside of the division to win four times total against playoff teams. That's not good.

Yeah, and it was the Colts, despite having four wins, they had beaten Kansas City in week three. Jacksonville were the other three. They beat the Chargers, Baltimore, and Dallas. So they were 4-21 against playoff teams last year. So we just talked about one of the best divisions at the AFC North, and last year this was one of the best divisions at the afc north and and last year this was one of the worst so um fantasy points wise this is worth noting good insight here from kyle

outside of jacksonville wide receiver fantasy points were severely lacking in the division jacksonville had the eighth most right because christian kirk was pretty darn good Zay Jones spot start Indianapolis 20th Houston 28th and Tennessee 32nd at the wide receiver position that's how Houston likes it though so I mean really you had but that was still Rabel's like I can bring that down it was still what Pittman Brandon Cooks and then Traylon Burks those were the three names we would have been paying attention to. Didn't add up. Quarterback play was a huge part of that. Yeah, the division sucked. You had injuries to Tennessee.

Obviously, Indy and Houston were just dumpster fires. But we could start with the Jaguars, who got good. They are a good team. I know that they're going to be a lot of people's darlings this season, but if you remember last year, they started two and six. They were not that great, and then they finished the year eight and three in their final 11 games, including a five-game winning streak. And it wasn't a situation where they just kept accidentally winning the close games. They're one-score games. They were still sub-500. So there's room for improvement here, and the improvement is going to come from T-Law.

Trevor Lawrence either steps up and is a superstar, and then this division is completely owned by him. They all get the Trevor Lawrence tattoo, the long hair. Every team has to get that tattoo on their back because I think he's going to own it for a while. Or he isn't a superstar and this entire division just sucks. You see that as a binary situation? Yeah. You're pretty black and white about this. Yeah, that was, I mean, couldn't he just be kind of pretty good and then Tennessee's pretty good and it could be more competitive?

I think if he's pretty good and Tennessee's pretty good, then this division still stinks. But my belief, I've shared this before, I've drafted this way in my drafts, but I believe Trevor Lawrence is going to do it. I think he's going to take this team to the heights that they have really not been at since. Well, you're going to get them on showcase week two at home, Kansas City. That's going to be a fun game.

They start on the road against Indy. So they'll get to see potentially Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew. Nine and eight last year, but ended eight and three. And that's where a lot of the optimism comes from. The five-game winning streak, the playoff victory against the Chargers. Last year, their win total was six and a half. This year, it's at nine and a half, although it's been bet down from ten and a half. So the division is theirs for the taking, that is for sure.

Trevor Lawrence showed that he could in kind of over, not just one game here, one game there, he could step up and, and be a fantasy force. And he's going to be one of those quarterbacks in that range. We were in the mock draft on Saturday where it's like, you know,

middle rounds, the Trevor Lawrence and Tua and Deshaun Watson. And, and, you know, maybe you throw Lamar in there, maybe he's above, but that group of quarterbacks has a lot of upside. Tua and Deshaun Watson and maybe you throw Lamar in there, maybe he's above,

but that group of quarterbacks has a lot of upside. Yeah, I mean, it's just a matter of who you believe in. I know you like Deshaun Watson a lot. I don't. I like Trevor Lawrence a lot, but that's why they're in those middle rounds. You're trying to take a shot on upside and talent. The reason that I believe in the upside of Trevor Lawrence, it's not just because he was drafted at the 101 to be a superstar, but it's because of the coaching staff and the players around him. Calvin Ridley, we haven't seen in a long time. We don't know if he's still great,

but we do know that he has been a great wide receiver. You add him to what we just talked about that was the number eight wide receiver core last year in fantasy points. There's a lot of weapons on this offense. And when you play in this division and you get to play the Colts and the Texans and the Titans six times, it's a good baseline. Travis Etienne, let's talk about him. Last year, explosive, 5.11 to carry nine yards per reception. Uh, but the big question mark is can this Clemson duo that had such a rapport in college

kind of, uh, in the passing game, can, can that be the source of improvement for Travis CTN? Cause only 14% of Lawrence's targets went to running backs last year. That was the second lowest in the NFL. Obviously, he is a mobile quarterback, so when a play breaks down, he's capable of kind of taking off as opposed to dumping it off. But to me, that is an area of opportunity for this offense. It's certainly an opportunity, but now you have – it seems like this is more likely to continue than to see a gigantic increase in targets.

ETN targeted on 12.7% of his routes, second worst at the running back position. They bring Tank Bigsby in. This is – like, Travis ETN is is I think a a very risky pick as in the upside is there but I think that the downside is there as well the beginning of the year started off they were the Jaguars were really working James Robinson in and Robinson was like Robinson was having fantasy success he didn't necessarily look fantastic on the field, which is why they eventually pulled him and then traded him away.

But Travis Etienne took over there. They didn't have another plan because James Robinson was so much in their plans that Etienne was getting the bulk of the work. But I think that Tank Bigsby is a threat to put this into far more of a committee. Seemingly, the way that Doug Peterson has done things, that's what Doug Peterson would prefer. So that's why I think that your...

I don't know that the targets are going to go up for Travis Etienne. Meanwhile, I believe that Tank Bigsby will take away more work from Etienne than over the second half anyone was taking away from him before. Not that ETM will be terrible for fantasy at all, but just rankings-wise, our consensus has him six spots below where he's currently being drafted. He's being drafted as the running back 13. Our consensus has him at 19.

You didn't mention Dearness Johnson either. Michael Hastie was involved last year. Yeah, Hastie was involved. They added Dearness Johnson and then obviously spent a pretty high draft pick on Tank Bigsby. That's why I was focused on Tank. Yeah, and if you look at the game log for ETN last year, there was a stretch when they realized, oh, James Robinson's toast

and he was gone, that he's playing 80%, 79%, 81%, 78%, 88%, 75%. These are numbers that very few running backs in the league are on the field for that snap percentage. And when they come out and say, we want to get more backs involved so we can keep ETN healthy, and then they go and do it, he's not playing that percentage of snaps. Now, he's super explosive. So when you get a young, explosive guy on a good offense that projects for nine and a half wins, I'm fine with the draft pick, but I don't see him having this show to himself. Well, one of the problems is he only had one touchdown over the last eight weeks of the season.

And we should remember those first four games last year, he was coming off of a major injury that cost him the year before. So it made sense that they were going to ease him into the offense all good points that you guys are making calvin ridley we'll find out oh man we'll find out he's 28 turning 29 final year of his rookie deal but he'll join christian kirk and zay jones it does push uh even if you don't you know have the confidence to invest a high pick on Ridley, which you can take that shot, it does push down my expectations for Zay Jones to be a regular contributor with the return of Evan Ingram,

with Travis Etienne's involvement. You mentioned Bigsby, but Ridley and Kirk. It seems like predictability on Zay Jones' involvement is going to be very difficult. I would agree. I think it also personally impacts Evan Ingram. You just add another piece where you're splitting the pie four ways. And Calvin Ridley is someone that I'm willing to take a bet on, but I am also willing to admit I think it's a bad bet

in the sense that historically you're talking about a 28-year-old turning 29 who hasn't played in a long time in an offense with other very capable wide receivers. He's being drafted as the clear wide receiver one. You're calling your shot there if you're taking that draft pick, and I'm fine trying that, but my advice for most people would be the odds say that it's probably not the right pick. Yeah, and I don't want to like

fully put these two situations together but like there were huge expectations for the return of josh gordon because josh gordon had put up the kind of season that was like wide receiver one capable yeah right like his physical ability and his talent like they're not like parallel circumstances obviously but a long wait finally a return and then not necessarily like you know if calvin ridley is number one and the and the go-to guy in the most receptions won't be surprised but if he's also just a guy that gets like four targets a game and there there's a bunch of deep threats and they work a bunch of other people into the offense that wouldn't surprise me either so there's a bunch of deep threats and they work a bunch of other people into the offense that wouldn't surprise me either so there's a lot of potential upside but he's

being drafted fairly high yeah I mean he's a fourth round pick the wide receiver 19 he's being drafted to do it and I think that there is a world where he ends up as the number one and it's still not good like the number one for this offense but that's just not enough target share with the other guys and it not only is the part of the story is calvin ridley's being drafted for sure like the adp and the crowd says we know that calvin ridley's the guy meanwhile the wide receiver 11 of last year yep who still is continuing to get that gigantic bag of money. Christian Kirk is being drafted in the back of the sixth as the wide receiver 32, which I get it. I get that.

When I think about drafting Christian Kirk, it's not an exciting proposition. But to be the 32nd wide receiver off the board, if you believe in Lawrencerence if you believe that's exactly what i was going to say is in many there are many many trevor lawrence believers i think you should be thrilled to get yet another value where does t higgins go right now third round uh yeah right around like he's a i think he's in the top 12 or so so the question is do you believe in kirk the way it has the potential to be

like Higgins and Devontae Smith like he's not those guys but if you believe Lawrence can throw for 4,500 yards where's it going well I mean you saw this two years ago where Christian Kirk was the number two for his offense he was the wide receiver 26 in football in in fantasy so that you know he's already out good yeah he's already out producing his wide receiver 33 draft cost. One quick Evan Ingram question before we move on, Mike. Would you take him in the eighth round? I'd be willing to, yes. Jason? No.

All right. Quick break. Back with the Titans. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially,

giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. Alright, time to move on in the AFC South to the Tennessee Titans. A strange and bewildering sight. 7-10. A projected win total before last year. A more Mike Vrabel-esque 9.5. And this year it's only a 7.5 because there are question marks on this team.

It almost feels a little bit like a team hanging on to its identity from the edge of a cliff, and everyone's like, just let go. Just let go. It's over. And then maybe they're like, no, we can climb this mountain again. It feels like a really, really nice go-kart that's kind of made out of aluminum foil. And you're really worried. That's nice and light, man.

Exactly. You get that speed. Oh, the acceleration will be there. Just don't have anything go wrong. Because if you hit a bump, it's all going to collapse. You've got Ryan Tannehill who can be efficient. He can be a good quarterback. I've seen it.

He could also just end up getting binged for banana rama. You've got Derrick Henry, one of the best running backs in all of football for the last five, six, seven years. And he's old enough and has enough wear and tear on his tires that it's like, that could be, this could be the end. This team just seems like best case scenario is they win the division. They're a 10 win team. They're super well coached.

Banana Rama never sees the field. It doesn't need to. Worst case scenario is the wheels just fall off and this team could be, you know, by mid-season playing for the number one pick. What helps them is the division they're in because I think that they're going to be able to hang on. They started so strong last year and it just fell apart. Do you need to read the numbers? The Tennessee Titans finished the season at 7-10. Heading into Week 12, they were 7-3. They were 7-3.

They lost seven games in a row to end the season. They had the third most. The wheels fell off. Games lost due to injury last year. They also were minus 54 in fourth quarter point differential, according to warren sharp it was a disaster but in the midst of it of disaster which by the way i believe their offensive line is ranked 32nd after being 32nd last year in the midst of disaster can sometimes

be opportunity i think derrick henry who's being drafted as the RB7, maybe had the most casual near 2,000 total yard season that anybody has ever had. I mean, he had another 349 opportunities on the ground for over 1,500 yards, and oh, let's just throw in almost 400 receiving yards. So the question of whether derrick henry could still in the year is the widers or the running back one i think is still

i think the answer is he still could absolutely he could and the fact that they started getting him involved in the passing game i mean we've said this forever like derrick henry is great he's the only running back i'll draft that doesn catch the ball. Except what if he does catch the ball? Because he did last year. You know, prior to last season, he had never been out of the teens in receptions. And then last year, he was at 33 receptions, was actively involved. Now, some of that could have been the fact that they had absolutely no one else to throw the ball to. Traylon Burks was injured. Kyle Phillips was injured.

There just was nobody obviously robert woods was there was like like like like we said there's they didn't really have anybody just saying robert robert woods was on the alan robinson playing last year yeah i mean he had he had 90 targets mike robert woods had 90 he caught 53 of them for 500 yards that's the Allen Robinson was like nice that was a great season Robert yeah so do you think join me do you think they found something to get him more involved or do you think that was just necessity and he'll go back to the teens in receptions no I don't think they have other weapons I mean they have the most bewildering wide receiver room they're putting a tremendous amount of faith in Traylon Burks, which for a fantasy sake is worth a great, I mean,

he's definitely worth a shot. Like this offense to succeed with Mike Rabel might just need Tannehill, Burks, and Henry to get enough done. If it succeeds, it will be those three. And if that happens, that's fantasy gold. because whenever you look around at the end of seasons and you see a real valuable asset in fantasy it's usually very consolidated you know it's like yes cooper cup just gets everything so traylon burks if if he is you know it's him and henry that's great for fantasy and because the rest of the wide receiver room is Nick Westbrook, Akine, Kyle Phillips, Chris Moore, and Rayce McMath, Chika Conquo will have an opportunity to break into this offense.

Yes, he will. And we've seen success at the tight end position on these rosters. Before, he's super athletic. He led all tight ends in yards per route run, second in targets per route run. I love him. He's one of those players that I think just stood out to me towards the end of the season. And I had a quick couple games of watching film on Chigga Conqua to say,

this is a wide receiver that's running around out there. So it's tough to put a lot of eggs in the 28th ranked point per game offense from last year. And it's a machine that if you lose one part, the whole machine's going to break. That go-kart is going to crumble. And it's like you can't take Tannehill out. You can't take Henry out. And you can't take Burks out. No.

Which, like, Burks may not be ready for that level of responsibility. He's going to get it. There's not a choice. And the reports have been very positive. So it just feels like a fragile team. Yeah, I would agree. I think it is fragile. There's value to be had.

I would still like i mean trailing burks right now is the wide receiver 35 in adp i love that i've got him as my wide receiver 25 i'm well ahead of adp on trailing burks burks or christian kirk i would take because they're both drafted almost at the same spot i'd go upside pick of burks okay yeah that's where i would be too and then just we we're way too early, generally speaking, to even consider playoff weeks. Yeah, it's worth mentioning. However, Houston, Seattle, Houston for Mr. Derrick Henry

should he still be toting the ball in those weeks. So we have to wait for the playoffs to get Houston Derrick Henry? I mean, or you get to wait. That's true. Depends if you've drafted him or not. We'll have to remind people. They might not remember right now. The Colts went 4-12.

They had a 9.5 win total last year. Give them their tie. 4-12-1. This year their projected win total last year. Give them their time. Four, 12, and one. This year, their projected win total is six and a half. You taking the over or the under there? Excuse me. I mean, I think it's like six or seven, so I think it's a good line. What do you think?

I ask the questions here. Yes, yes, seven, so I think it's a good line. What do you think? I ask the questions here. Yes, yes, yes. Honestly, it's such a great line. I will take the O. I wanted to see how you lean there because I think that is the right line. The coaching last season was a purposeful calamity upon this team. The men were led, Jason. The men were led by Jeff Saturday

after they, I believe, incorrectly sacrificed Frank Reich, got rid of him, didn't bring in a head coach to coach this team, and then they went hard after that great pick, which ended up in Anthony Richardson. Yeah, say, between Jeff Saturday and Frank Reich, one of the guys is still a head coach in the NFL.

Right, and one of the guys never was. Well, they lost the final seven with Saturday after he won his debut, which hurt Mike, I'm sure. Oh, it was tough. It was tough, but we came out on top everybody we go ahead jay shane steichen's coming over as the new head coach this was uh last year's offensive coordinator for jalen hertz and the eagles it seems like a really nice pairing with anthony richardson at quarterback it's going to be a raw offense. So when I look at the win totals, I'm thinking...

I'm switching to under. Yeah, I... I really am. I lean towards the under with a first-time head coach and a very inexperienced and raw quarterback as a rookie who I think will start the vast majority of games. If he's not out there week one, he will be out there soon. And if you're drafting Anthony

Richardson one of the things that it gives you a little bit of comfort is that even if he's not the starter week one he'll be in on goal line packages they're gonna work him into those games where he's not the starter so you can have some fantasy points I'm speaking more of like best ball leagues uh but yeah I do lean the under for this team. It'll come down to, you know, can Anthony Richardson, if he gets in there, does he run the football? Because we know that's going to be a cheat code in fantasy. There's only four rookie quarterbacks with 600-plus rushing yards ever, and that was Cam, RG3, Josh Allen, and Lamar.

But every rookie quarterback over the last 20 years with 80-plus total rushing attempts finished top 10 in fantasy points per game. Don't underestimate that. That's 4.7 carries a game. If Anthony Richardson's starting, I will be shocked that he's not above 4.7 carries a game. And so that's like hiding in plain sight. Ranked, being drafted as the quarterback 12. We've got him lower. We don't know if it'll be Gardner

to start but if he runs the ball more than 4.7 times a game every single rookie quarterback has been a top 10 and fancy points per game and it's also it's what Trey Lance would have been and he got to start as a rookie who was also a goal line package guy that year so don't underestimate that, but it does seem like the, like you said, the rest of the offense, it's, it's not impressive. Michael Pittman last year, he did his best, but, but it wasn't, it wasn't great. And you lose Paris Campbell, who was a reliable pass catcher in the offense last year. And you replace him with Josh Downs and Isaiah McKenzie. The ancillary pieces don't excite me.

You've got Anthony Richardson, who I think in his own right is going to be awesome for fantasy football. I'm not drafting a ton of him because I think he'll get off to a slow start. But I think I'm going to be picking him up off of waiver wires. If you do draft him, don't drop him to the wire. You look at Josh Allen's rookie season. He started the year just horrendous, worthless for fantasy. And yet he finished, like you said, as a top 10 per game because he ended the year awesome once they figured out how to utilize his skill sets. But he's going to hurt Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor's going to be good, but not great.

He's not going to be the running back one because you're going to have rushes vultured, and you're not going to have Matt Ryan, Phillip River dump-offs. You're going to have Anthony Richardson rollouts. So that hurts. And then Michael Pittman, you're taking a pie that was 4,500 yards or at least 4,000 yards with some of those veteran quarterbacks, and you're going down to, I don't think he throws for 3,000 yards. So if that's the case, it's just you're not getting a ton,

even if you're 25% market share. My biggest concern, too, is, like, is this the kind of rebirth of the Colts' identity as an offense? Because Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman are both in contract years this year. Josh Downs was a draft pick that they invested in. They have a young Alec Pierce who I think is really talented. So is Michael Pittman a part of the future for the Indianapolis Colts? Because I'd be shocked that they would invest heavily on Michael Pittman

as they're trying to turn this roster over and go youth with Anthony Richardson. I think they have to, though. I'll be shocked. If they invest. I think it's much more likely they bring Jonathan Taylor back on a contract than Michael Pittman, yes. I believe that they need to set Anthony Richardson up for success. They don't have the wide receiver core beyond Pittman, in my opinion, to let Pittman go.

They may be in play for Harrison. Sure. I mean, we'll see how bad it goes. But you could do both. I mean, you get to take advantage of the rookie contract. Like, when you have a rookie quarterback, that's when you have the room that you can pay or overpay, I should say, for a wide receiver.

Let's spend a minute on Jonathan Taylor before we move on because I feel like we've probably talked about him. I think Jay Grizz is making noise back there. Was that Jay Grizz? Maybe. Okay. Nope. Get in there.

No, Al. You've been called. Get in there. Oh, Al. Get Al. You've been called. Get in there. You're on the show now. Put the camera in Deucer's alley. Oh, yeah. Because let me just explain what happened here in the shame. Go ahead and hide behind wherever you want.

We're sitting here. I think we're probably breaking down this team as excellent as anybody could. Yeah, has ever done. And then I hear just clank, blonk, blonk sounds over there. And I'm thinking Brooks is making all the noise. And instead, Al Borland, who's now hiding behind a bear, what happened? Somebody explain themselves. He just ran into something over here.

He ran into something. He's trying to work on something. Yeah, I did put that in there, though. The other deuces sign that we have. explained themselves he just ran into something over here you ran into something yeah yeah i did put the other deuces sign that we have yeah well impressive good work al making his one contribution to today's show that was his worst nightmare by the way oh yes you guys know yeah oh yeah yeah well he can you know we suck it up buttercup we really enjoy taking as big a bus as you can drive and then rolling that right over your friends and then backing that up and then putting it right into you ever seen a quadruple decker bus oh yeah we drive it what did you say's like a squash, except it's way worse. It's got an R in there?

Yeah. Squash. Speaking of buses. Yeah. Talk about Jonathan Taylor for a second. He is a bus. And I'm going to let Mike, I'm going to give you the moment here because Jason kind of shared his thoughts about the way this season may play out.

But Jonathan Taylor is, let's not forget, the number six and the number one overall fantasy finisher last year. Lost season in a lot of respects due to the injury and re-injury. Yep. So he still ran for four or five a carry. Half of it was on an injured ankle. Do you agree with Jason's take on his ceiling? Does he not have running back one potential?

Because in our mock drafts recently, we've seen him as the second running back off the board. Yeah, right now RB4 in ADP, and I'm not willing to go RB4. We have him as a top 10 guy, but there's just so many things stacked against him. How good is this team? And because that's compounded by you're going to have a rookie quarterback

in there sooner than later. Maybe Gardner, maybe they give him week one because he gets to go to a revenge game against the Jags, but Anthony Richardson is the future of the team, and he'll be in there sooner than later. Anthony Richardson is a mobile quarterback, so that takes away all the, like the team, and he'll be in there sooner than later. Anthony Richardson is a mobile quarterback, so that takes away all the, like Jason said, the Phillip Rivers checkdowns and the Matt Ryan checkdowns.

Those will not be flowing for Jonathan Taylor. And then you have goal line being taken away from Johnny Taylor. And running backs just, when a running back is on a team that's not great, more often than not, it takes away from their fantasy upside because that team's not putting up points. So I'm not concerned at all with Jonathan Taylor's ability, but his situation is not great. And for him to be taken as the running back for, I don't think that's factoring in enough of his,

the situation that he finds himself in. All right. I want to talk about the Texans. Really? And I was going to bring up the fact that I think they are going to be much, much better than they were last year. And then I went and I looked and the projected win total reflects that. So the opinion last year, they were four and a half this year. They're six and a half. That and the projected win total reflects that. So the opinion, last year they were 4.5. This year they're 6.5.

That's the same as the Colts. I think they're going to make huge strides this year. C.J. Stroud arrives. The future, I think, is very, very bright with the transition to D'Amico Ryans at head coach who will fix the defense. That's going to happen in Houston. They invested, obviously, early draft picks to bolster the defense, to add a quarterback in C.J. Stroud.

It's been a good offseason. They added Devin Singletary and Mike Boone to the running back room. They added Dalton Schultz as the tight end. They added Robert Woods and Noah Brown, lost Brandon Cooks, a wide receiver, but they also drafted two guys, Nathaniel Dell and Xavier Hutchinson. Well, one and a half. Is that because of Tank

Dell's so teensy-teensy? Yeah. To me, there's a lot of addition this offseason that I like with Houston, and I would take the over on the six and a half. I think there'll be a seven-win team this year, and I do not think they'll be the basement dweller.

You know, what's funny is whether or not this team or the Colts team is going to go over or under probably will be dictated by who wins the series of those two games. Like, do the Texans beat the Colts in their matchups or vice versa? This team should be significantly better. Will Anderson on defense, they traded back up to grab. It was like, oh, they're going to take Will Anderson. They're going to take C.J. Stroud.

Why not both? And thank you for that, by the way, as a Cardinal fan, because I want a good pick next year. I would take the under on the Texans. I think that the elite talent, if I had to say who's going to win the heads-up matchup between the Colts and the Texans, I think the Colts win those games. But for fantasy purposes here, there's a lot of question marks. Damian Pierce last season was a revelation.

He was the best fourth-round rookie running back that we have seen ever, or at least back to 2000 where most of my data comes from. But he was really good on film. He was really good for total fantasy points. But there were a lot of problems and inefficiencies there too for having an offensive line that is very expensive and should be good. This now is a new regime that comes in, and they bring in Devin Singletary as a free agent.

This team is not heavily invested in Damian Pierce. And Damian Pierce last year when he was having great success, he was it. His market share of the running back room was a stranglehold over the position. So I find myself pretty much out on Damian Pierce, even though I loved the film last year. I don't know if you guys agree or disagree with that. I think that there's an argument to be made on both sides. Yeah, I'm okay with the draft price.

I think Damian Pierce is a much better running back than Devin Singletary. I think both will be involved. And I think he overperformed because of what you said, the amount of volume. You know, you talk about it, it's the Travis Etienne argument to a degree, where because of the situation they were in, the snap counts were extremely high.

You know, this was the running back 13 from weeks 3 through 13. So we know he can get it done for fantasy. And last year's team, Houston, they were 30th in points per game. This is not a good team, 31st in total yards, and yet he ran very, very hard. That's what he does. He's a violent, vicious runner. Singletary is much more, I think, at this stage of his career,

a tried-and-true runner, a guy that just gets the job done. But I think there's a difference between them. And so, you know, if you believe that, like the sports books say, that they're going to be a little bit better this year, can you improve that points per game as a team overall, or are you going to be stuck because of this rookie quarterback? That's a big question. It will be interesting because this is now, you know,

this is Central America in the middle of the country, but it's San Francisco. Like these are, like D'Amico coming over from San Francisco. Bobby Sloak, the offensive coordinator, has been a Shanahan guy. Like since 2017 when Kyle Shanahan was the head coach of the 49ers, Bobby has been there, you know there in one way or the other. He started as a defensive quality control, but then he moved into an offensive assistant,

then a passing game specialist. And the Shanahan system, if he's going to bring that run scheme over, very valuable. We see a lot of players who you don't think they're like, oh, that's a jag running back. You put them in the Shanahan system and incredible things happen. But also for Kyle Shanahan before McCaffrey, this would be a running, a very, very running back by committee.

And you don't even necessarily know for sure who's going to have what role at what time. So I think that that needs to also be a factor of if you're looking at Damian Pierce, he needs an overwhelming amount of volume, and I don't think he's going to get that. Running back 27, that's not an ADP that says he's for sure going to be locked in and do what he did last year, So maybe he's worth that draft price. No, no, no. He's the running back 19 right now.

We have him as the running back 27. Okay. Flip that. Reverse it. Actually, I read that RB27 is ADP as well when I said that I would approve. Oh, did we? That I would approve that. Whoops-a-doozles.

I would approve an RB27 ADP. Yeah, that's why I agree with that. That-a-doozles. I would approve an RB27 ADP. Yeah, that's why I agree with that. But that's not where we are, apparently. And if he's going in the fifth, there's going to be other players at different positions I want more than him. Yeah, and I do want to say, yes, they're spending a ton of money on their offensive line. No, it wasn't good last year.

That's true. So if that can improve, if he can get into the end zone more, I think he only had, what, four touchdowns or something. Those would be areas where efficiency would transform that a little bit. You know, you have reason to be confident in the running game in general because of the things you talked about coming over from San Francisco. So I think this team is going to be fun to watch. And I think that there are underrated options elsewhere.

I think Nico Collins, in so far in practices is by far the number one target i think he has some sneaky value i mean he's not being considered in any draft which is wild it's wild because you have some of these offenses where like you know they they get to play the same amount of uh opportunities that the other team does you know carolina hou, this division's awful, or was last year. You know, there's going to be spot start opportunities for players like Jonathan Mingo or Nico Collins or Adam Thielen.

And I just don't want them to be forgotten about. I think Dalton Schultz is underrated. Yeah, I think it's worth knowing the names, because then you have John Meche who was a second round pick out of Alabama this past year. Unfortunately had to deal with his health issues, but he's back. He's good to go.

And Robert Woods is there to at least give some a veteran presence. So yeah, I don't mind bringing them up just so everyone's cool and aware of what's going on with the Texans. But we've harped on rookie quarterbacks don't carry a good fantasy starter, let alone like a top 36 option most of the time.

And I love C.J. Stroud. Look, believe me, he was my guy. But 70% of rookie quarterbacks don't support a top 36 wide receiver. And so that makes it – these are long shots, but I don't expect any of these guys to have regular value each and every week. Yeah, I mean you just said it. 70% of rookie quarterbacks that start week one, they don't have a top 36 wide receiver.

So you're already talking about a 30% outlier sliver that do have them, and those players aren't the Nico Collins and Robert Woods of the world. They get massive, massive Keenan Allen volume. Exactly. Nico Collins would have to see a 25-plus percent target share to even get close to being inside that top 30 all right give me your division top to bottom i i'm going with the jaguars at top uh i think that the the go-kart is just too dangerous here um in tennessee but i'll take tennessee second the Colts third, and I'm going to put the Texans at the bottom.

I will go Titans take the division. I think it all fell apart. To start seven and three and then fall apart, I think they can get it going again. Jags easily in second, and then I'll take – I'll go C.J. Stroud and company at third and the Colts at the bottom. That is my order.

Tennessee winning the division, Jacksonville, Houston, Colts. I think Derek Henry's got one more. Yeah, I do too. I love it. I don't know what the odds are, but I would imagine that it – Jacksonville's the favorite. No, but I would imagine they're – Plus 425 for Tennessee.

It's a good bet. It's a good bet. Plus 425, yeah. Mike,'s a good bet exactly plus 425 yeah that's mike you want to get together after this and yeah we'll uh yeah what is it with in the parking lot oh okay yeah not on uh nfl not on nfl grounds yeah all right uh brooks out of curiosity who do you have one in the division let's hear from you i got the jags okay boring yeah i regret asking no I'm just kidding. Yeah, look, Jacksonville to me is a lot like Detroit.

I'm rooting for them. But Doug Peterson teams, does it wear off? You know, first season's always great. Does it wear off with Doug Peterson? Is Trevor Lawrence got it? I hope so. But Tennessee is still the giant to kill. I think if they're at full strength,

that's going to be an intimidating couple of games for Jacksonville. If they beat them, they're going to win the division, right? Well, I don't know if we mentioned this, but an insane stat. Ryan Tannehill, despite everything that's gone on in the career of Ryan Tannehill since 2019 when he became the starter for the Titans, he has won over 65% of his games. There are certain teams and certain coaches that they get their players to play tougher. Baltimore is going to play tougher. The 49ers, they just hit so hard. That's probably why they're all injured all the time. Perhaps. And Tennessee, they just are, they're brutalizers

under Vrabel. And so I don't, I certainly don't blame you thinking that they could win the division. Check out the ultimate draft kit to get an edge on your upcoming fantasy football drafts. Everything you need to dominate, including a cheat sheet creator, sleepers, breakouts, a whole lot more at UltimateDraftKid.com. Until next time. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com

and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers. Hey, thanks for listening to today's episode. You want more? Check out our fantasy football community at jointhefoot.com.