Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - AFC South Breakdown + Follow the Money - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/11

Episode Date: July 11, 2024

AFC South preview on today’s fantasy football podcast! Is C.J. Stroud worth a high pick in fantasy drafts? Get a full breakdown for the Texans, Jaguars, Colts, and Titans headed into the 2024 fantasy football season! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for July 11th, 2024. Intro - 0:00:00 Draft strategy based on league size - 0:07:30 AFC South Breakdown - 0:09:00  Houston Texans - 0:13:16 Jacksonville Jaguars 0:26:50 Indianapolis Colts - 0:36:25 Tennessee Titans - 0:45:25 Division Predictions - 0:53:10 2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Scotiabank you're richer than you think. There is a fifth dimension beyond that, which is known to fantasy football losers, a dimension where championships flow freely and celebrations are commonplace. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, science and superstition, analytics and film.

The easiest road to this place is the ultimate draft kit. Imagine stealing a breakout player while your opponent falls for another siren of catastrophe. Your preparation from over 100 player profile videos will be the difference between the pit of man's fears and the summit of knowledge. This is the dimension of Foot Clan titles. Commit this website to memory and dominate your draft. UltimateDraftKit.com Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

Welcome in. Man. I had this, the weirdest dream, guys. You did? Yeah. Tell us about it. I mean, it's not really weird for everybody else, but for the three of us, I had this dream that we were doing shows and I was on the other chair.

No. I was where Andy was. That would be weird, man. It was a nightmare. Were you tripping out? Everything was mirrored. Like an alternate universe? Yeah. Like the alternate universe? Yeah. Like the Twilight Zone?

I'm so glad that it didn't actually happen. No, I have no clue what you're talking about, but it sounds harrowing. Welcome into the Fantasy Footballers. Mike Wright is here in the proper chair. Jason Moore, we know he don't do no profile. I don't do profile. We're not playing musical chairs here. I am locked and loaded front and center. profile i don't do profile as you know you we're not playing musical chairs here i am

locked and loaded front and center so you're saying when faced with like if you get a tooth knocked out oh you're gonna have to see it you're just gonna show it off or you hold the microphone right in front of your face yeah i'll just toggle right here or alternatively go on vacation yeah i'm not you know we'll see um Back in our normal, regularly scheduled seats today, we have another divisional breakdown episode going through the AFC South today. The young guys. Yeah. The AFC South is the youngest division I can remember.

Well, the quarterbacks in particular are, I mean, the bets on them are, I mean, it's the future for each of these teams. So we'll talk through that fantasy football context. I don't think we have a whole lot of news. I mean, Leonard Fournette, he's in the best shape of his life. What? What is he wanting to do with that great shape? He is intending to sign with the team.

I will tell you this. He should have done this like three years ago. Gotten in the best shape of his life? Wouldn't it be more valuable when you're at the right playing age to be in the best shape then? Oh yeah, the dump truck.

The dump truck, listen. That means that his dump truck. The dump truck. Listen. That means that his dump truck has got to be just buoyant and firm. I am not participating in the riffing. You don't want to talk about Fornette's bum bum? It's the ark. Yeah, he intends to sign with a team before the season. He will not sign with a team before the season.

Yeah, he will. He will sign with the Raiders. You think so? Yeah, he'll sign with the Raiders and ruin all the Zemir White talk. I don't know, man. Have you seen Zemir White's biceps? He's in the best shape of his life. That's not even a good shape, man.

That looked like he was about to pop. I think Fournette will go somewhere and make it annoying. Yeah. I think there's a few guys that will make you confused. I mean, I know he was technically on the bills, but, I mean, how much did he actually? He didn't play hardly at all. Yeah, so he played 18% of the snaps in week 16 and 21% of the snaps in week 16, and 21% of the snaps in week 18. It's because he was in the worst shape of his life back then.

Oh, man. Now, I mean, the offseason, look, here's some breaking news for you. All the NFL players, they got biceps and quads and muscles. You know? Yeah. They all got them. So it must be something more than that to succeed in the NFL level.

Youth. He does not have that. He's not in the best age of his life. That's exactly what I'm saying. He's not in the best age of his life. He's got an unbelievable human body that is no longer the best of the best.

He's irrelevant. Did you see David Johnson work out for the last three years before he retired the videos and how good of shape David Johnson was in? Yeah. Not good enough. Not matter. So maybe he won't, maybe he won't sign with the Raiders.

Maybe the Raiders will leave Zamir alone, but a couple of things here at the top, before we jump into everything else. The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now at ultimatedraftkit.com and the UDK Plus, you can jump in there right away. Get access to

everything that we got. I saw some more updates go through for you yesterday, Jason, on your rankings. Yep. Today we went through a lot of Dynasty rankings as well. Updated that. Yeah, I mean, we're rankings. Yep. Today we went through a lot of Dynasty rankings as well, updated that. And, yeah, I mean, we're always in there. So ultimatedraftgate.com if you want to jump in. It's also available on the app on iOS and Android.

We're going to be live in Los Angeles Saturday, August 24th, at the Palace Theater. It's going to be our 10th anniversary Megalith show. So if you want to come see us. We have a lot of surprises in store. At least that's what I'm assuming from our producers. The producers, yes. Can't wait to see what they're doing.

Jason will be throwing slash shooting things into the crowd. Yeah, shooting only. Ballerslive.com if you want to grab tickets to that event. And the community, as always, the incredible, spectacular Foot Clan is over at jointhefoot.com. Papa Josh is with us today in Deucer's Alley. Now, Papa Josh, what was going on on the Discord yesterday? There was a live rookie draft and a bunch of people participating.

So what we're doing. I know, right? He just got down with the pipe yeah clear the throat before you turn on that surprised me so the moderators are doing a foot clan for foot clan uh type of events where they were actually reviewing people's drafts and teams for dynasty and helping them kind of figure out where to go, where their weak spots are, stuff like that. So kind of like a live draft analyzer for UDK. Good stuff.

Yeah, I had hundreds of people in there. It was great. Awesome. Any other headlines here before we get into the quick question? You guys have anything you want to mention? Here is the quick question for today. How does your draft strategy change for different league sizes? We do get that question a lot.

Like if you're in an 8-team league, 10-team league, 12, larger leagues, how do you think about your draft strategy? Because people want to make sure they're doing the right thing. Yeah, if you're just talking about size of the league, I tend to focus more on the onesies in a smaller league. If you're in an eight-team league, everyone's team is going to be awesome. Not everyone's team is going to have Josh Allen to really be a difference maker. When everyone has a good quarterback, not everyone's going to have Sam Laporta or whoever you think this year's number one tight end is. So I'll usually focus a little bit earlier on those, whereas on the flip side, if I'm in a 16-team league and you've got multiple, you know, you're starting two running backs,

two wide receivers, and a flex, those get dirty. Those are where the nasty boys are. So I'm going to focus on the running backs and wide receivers for days. Yeah, because if you're in a 16-team league, you're facing Josh Allen once, Jalen Hurts once, and a bunch of other quarterbacks for 14 other weeks, right? So that is not as much of an advantage to have the high-end piece there. Yeah, and when you take the high-end piece in those leagues,

you end up losing so much important depth at the deeper positions where it's not really cost effective to, to waste a running back or wide receiver slot on a quarterback or tight end. Any other thoughts, Mike? Nope. You're in the same boat. I'm in the same boat.

A hundred percent. All right, let's jump in. Let's get divisional. All right, like I said, we're doing the AFC South today, and we look at, on these divisional shows, we look at off-season personnel changes, coaching staffs, which come with scheme changes for the offense,

the rookie classes of these teams, how the offenses could function, which players we think will take a step forward, whether we like the pricing of players right now in fantasy drafts, and then ultimately we'll weigh in on the win-loss totals because, you know, that's kind of a big deal, right? Like, especially in this division, and what we talked about on the last show

with Derrick Henry, we know what Derrick Henry's production was like when a team was winning games. There are players that are obviously going to have a lot of correlation to winning and the running games and the success. So, you know, in this division, Tennessee finished out last last year. And they will again, but, you know, know it's like week 18 you had three of these teams that were going you know going at it to try to see who's who's winning the division who's making the playoffs I mean it was it was really compelling football between those three I'm I'm

interested to see how you guys rank them the Texans Jaguars and Colts you can make an easy and obvious argument I think for all three of those teams and you could make an easy and obvious argument, I think, for all three of those teams. And you could make an underdog argument for Tennessee, in my opinion. Oh, yeah. You could do anything you want. Yeah. No, that's true. You could be like, I think another team from another division is going to win the AFC South.

We'll let you. You can do whatever you want. You guys do not have open mics. I did. It's almost like you think that the division plays out the exact same way every year. No, it's more of Kyle the Borginoni tweeted out

a he tweeted out all the Will Levis plays and it's a long watch. Look, I guess nothing's impossible, but it seems like a really wide leap to get from where he was last year to a winning football team. They also don't have a good defense. It's not just Will Levis. I'm not saying that they can't take a step up from where they were last year,

that Will Levis can't be good, but to win the division would be really surprising to me. This would not be, like every year there's a division where the last place team goes to first. Right. Right? I mean, that was this division last year, the Houston Texans went from worst to first. That's such a good point.

Yeah. I'm saying this ain't one. Well, let's not put the colt before the horse here. We'll go through all the teams. We'll break it down, and then maybe we'll have a different perspective. Maybe. I can't wait to see where you rank the Titans. Last year. Yeah, that first word was correct.

Houston was 10-7. Jacksonville and Indianapolis were both 9-8. Tennessee was 6-11. Three teams were in contention going into the final week. It was a fun end of the year. The Colts, if you remember, they had that devastating play where they targeted Tyler Goodson on fourth down. They had one yard to go.

He dropped the ball. I mean, sort of. It would have been an incredible catch. Oh, man, I don't agree with that. It would have just been a catch. Oh, man, I don't agree with that. It would have just been a catch. Yeah. I'll have to watch it again. That would have been a good catch.

My memory of it was it was not a great pass. If you play football for a living, it was one I thought you should have made. But that meant they lost to the Colts. I'm watching it right now. The pass was a little bit behind him. He had to completely turn around, man. It was fourth down. You have to do whatever to catch that ball.

It was a bad throw and a bad attempt at catching the football. But the point was Jonathan Taylor was off the field, and you lose with your decision sometimes. So, you know, it was Gardner Minshew. It was an interesting year with the Richardson injury. Jason mentioned it at the top. It's super young, the division, because the quarterbacks. C.J. Stroud, 22 years old.

Trevor Lawrence, 24 years old. Anthony Richardson, 22 years old. The oldest, Will Levis at 25. I saw this in preparation. I just didn't I didn't believe it I could not believe that Will Levis is older than Trevor Lawrence who's going into year four yeah it's wild and Houston was the biggest surprise of all one of the bigger surprises in all of football they had a projected win total of six and a half, which by the way, that's where Tennessee is this year. That's where Houston was last year. They won 10 games. CJ Stroud took over. They're projected for nine and a half wins. They do have a tougher schedule. They have some tough matchups on the road against Kansas City,

on the road against Dallas. They play Baltimore this year. Eleventh in pace of play, twelfth in points per game. Oddly enough, with a rookie, they were number one in the league in terms of turnovers per drive. And what I mean by that is the least amount. Like, they didn't turn the ball over. They took care of it. It was something you don't normally see with a young quarterback at the helm, but they did that.

Really good against the running game on the defensive side of the football. Tenth in points per game given up. You saw the impact of D'Amico Ryan's right away on this offense, and then they know their window is now. So they went out and they spent money this offseason on the defensive side of the football. On the offensive side, they took some chances. Daniil Hunter coming over from Minnesota,

Danico Autry, a couple of edge rushers. And Stephon Diggs and Joe Mixon. They went out and got four proven veteran Pro Bowl players to add to both sides of the ball. It'll be really, really interesting. So, you know, there's a lot of excitement around this team. For fantasy purposes, C.J. Stroud's going in the fourth round as the QB5. Mike mentioned him on the bust episode, not because he doesn't like him,

but because the cost, I mean, you're baking in a lot of things for C.J. Stroud, so you're saying be cautious. It's simply a C.J. Stroud is a pocket passer and for pocket passers to return on being a fourth round pick, being drafted as a top five quarterback,

they have to have just truly outrageous years. 3,500 plus passing yards. You're talking at least over 30 passing touchdowns, really more in the mid-30s for them to return the value. So, I mean, Stroud could be one of those guys that makes it happen. It's just the taking probability of C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, if Jordan Love continues on the path he was on last year.

Those guys, to me, they're all in a pretty similar archetype and bucket of a player of, I think they're all good players, and they could all hit those marks, but to spend your fourth rounder as your bet into that pool is not how I play. Yeah, I think all three of us are unanimously there. Like, there's no way I would spend a fourth rounder on C.J. Stroud, even though I love him. He's one of the most fun players to watch. I think he's great. He's got a great, you know, team around him. But I mean, you're talking about rounds and rounds later, you can get Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott. I mean, Brock Purdy way outperformed him last year. And that's not a sexy name, but it's like that's double-digit rounds.

Well, and they're both pocket passers, and the weapons are very good in San Francisco. And the price is expensive for Stroud in fantasy right now. They bring in Joe Mixon. They let go of Devin Singletary. Mixon somehow, some way finished at RB5. I mean, he's the only running back in fantasy to finish top 12 in each of the last three years.

He was good last year. He actually was. And this was, you know, he was performing very similar to James Connor where when the quarterback went down and defenses are really, you know, focused on you and you've got backup quarterbacks you know that are handing you the ball still have success he still had success so

they won games he carried that team a lot he wouldn't have that stat if he wasn't like healthy and reliable too so you look at it from that perspective like there are other guys that would have done that if they stayed healthy but mix Mixon did stay healthy. They brought him in. Damian Pierce's time in the sun seems to have come and gone, but he'll be the complement, the depth piece. I think that the value on Joe Mixon is incredibly good. This is a team that traded for him. They didn't give up a ton in the trade because he was going to get cut, but then when they had him, they signed him to a long-term deal. He's on a great offense.

And he's going in a place in drafts where, depending on the platform you're on, I see him on underdog in the sixth round. The trouble for him is what the trouble was for Damian Pierce to start the year. The offensive line looked just horrific, run-blocking to start the year. Stroud made a lot out of nothing. They lost the most games due to injury on the offensive line. They come in ranked 22nd on PFF's 2024 rankings. They're very expensive.

They're the most money invested in an offensive line, but the injuries really hurt them last year. That would be something you hope they can have some time to kind of become a unit this year, protect Stroud, and give Mixon opportunities. Yeah, when Singletary took over the role down the stretch the second half of the year, he was a top 10 running back. And so the opportunity for this run game, the scoring opportunities

for a team that you expect to do great between the 20s, you know, I like Mixon as value. Just real quick, what's funny, because I saw the tweet from Jacob Gibbs today. He just tweeted out, Devin Singletary has recorded a higher PFF rushing grade than Joe Mixon in every single one of his five seasons. So it's just, look, and watching this hard knocks that's on right now

because it's just behind-the-scenes stuff. For the Giants. Yeah, for the Giants. And this is just taking one team and spreading it across 31 others, but it's like, no, these guys can become just as infatuated with name value, like the name. The general managers of these teams. They're just as susceptible as we are and like joe mixon is has been correlated to like oh that's a great player he's part of the bangles made a super bowl run and devin singletary is just

like yeah he's this guy who's bounced around from a few teams so it's just he's not nearly as interesting um so i just i found that tweet to be very like yeah it kind of makes sense of how i feel about joe mixon the runner and the biggest question is targets where joe mixon has been like i mean he's really he's been a boss in terms of he just he brings you strong ppr. 52 receptions last year, 60 the year before that. Decently efficient on the catches as well. But at least last year, the Texans, they were not a team that checked it down to the running back.

I'm showing a 15% target share to the running back position as a whole, which was, for us, that would be 30. I don't think that will change. When you add, you bring back Dalton Schultz as a whole, which was for us, that'd be 30th. I don't think that'll change. When you add, you know, you bring back Dalton Schultz on a contract, you add Stephon Diggs, you get an injured Tank Delbeck, you extend Nico Collins, like there's just not a lot to go around there.

And that's my largest issue with Joe Mixon. You have to spend a higher pick on Stroud right now than Mixon in fantasy drafts. That's wild. But it's for Mixon to come through, the receptions still have to be there. I think he can be okay, but for me, I'm not in agreement. I think Joe Mixon is too rich for my blood right now. Mixon's receptions will come down.

That is a valid and fair point. But Singletary, when he had that role last year, he was on pace for 40 receptions. So it's not like you're going down to 25 receptions. They're still going to check it down sometimes. But, man, why check it down when you have three wide receivers who are always open? And just like the – it seemed like Stroud's philosophy,

like while he doesn't take off and run, he's like, if I extend this play, one of my two guys is going to be open wide open just down the field well and now it's three collins digs tank dell each had really interesting storylines for last year nico collins breakout campaign got paid warren sharp mentioned he caught 100 of his catchable targets 15 plus yards down the field. He was the only wide receiver to do that. Tank Dell had a window where he was the wide receiver three last year, 20 points a game from weeks nine through 12. And then Diggs had the incredible beginning of the season, terrible end of the season. I've seen the quotes and the discussions of just like Josh Allen

froze him out. It was like a decision by this team to stop integrating Stefan Diggs so extensively into the offense. I don't know if that's because they knew the team was going to move on. I don't know if it was a personal conflict. Or if they thought they were better not focusing on one guy because they did win a lot of games when they made that offensive coordinator change

I mean it wasn't like they lost because of that strategy you're correct and the other thing is Diggs has been problematic in locker rooms for two different teams and you know what you tolerate you tolerate that when the player is better than everyone else in the league.

But if you've lost a step and you still want the ball every second, those players bounce around. That just happens. The end of careers for superstar wide receivers, they go to a bunch of different teams because they've lost a little bit, but they still think that they're the same exact dude. And that's what I think happened with Diggs. I think it was both. It was team strategy, and it was you've lost a little bit.

And so now that factors into how we're ranking these guys, and I don't want Diggs. I don't want to spend the price on Diggs. I'd rather have the upside of the lowest-ranked guy in Tank Dell, who I believe has such a great rapport with C.J. Stroud, or if I'm not – I have no problem spinning up on Nico Collins anymore. Yeah, nice. Welcome to the party.

Yeah, Nico and Tank Dell, I am happy to pay the price for both of them. I am wary of Stephon Diggs. We have, looking at his numbers, when there are three or more wide receivers, commonly three on the field, and it's just simple math. There or more wide receivers, commonly three on the field, and it's just simple math. There's three wide receivers. Now we have an extra wide receiver target for the quarterback to find on the field or a play to be designed for.

And two of the last three years, Stephon Diggs' yards per route run when it's three or more wide receivers, it's bad. It's not it's three or more wide receivers. Like, it's bad. It's not just worse than the two wide receivers. It goes to a bad match. Yeah, it goes to a number where you're not pleased with that, which, I mean, the story is, okay, when there's only two wide receivers, he can earn targets more.

And, you know, when this trade initially happened, my gut reaction was, man, will Tank Dell kind of be the third guy, the odd man out, where the Texans ran? They ran a lot of two wide receiver sets. You have to imagine that changes. When you make a move for Stephon Diggs and you have these other two guys, you adjust your offense. But, like, is Stephon Diggs, does he end up, honestly,

is he the slot guy? And the other two are the outside players. It seems strange to be like Tank Dell, the tiny, thin guy, is the outside player, but he dominates on the outside. Why would you put Stephon Diggs out there? Let the veteran play in the middle. I just watched every single target from Tank Dell. I posted that on my Twitter, and he's so good.

He's so good. You can't guard him. You cannot guard him. He's too fast and shifty in a short area. Remember how mad you were when I traded for him last year? Oh, I was very mad. But then he got hurt, but then I won the title anyway. I do remember that.

Do you remember that story? Yeah, I do. I remember very mad. But then he got hurt, but then I won the title anyway. I do remember that. Do you remember that story? Yeah, I do. I remember that story. Here's an exciting beginning of the year. Goes to Indianapolis, plays against Anthony Richardson. At home against Chicago and plays against Caleb Williams. Those are the first two weeks for C.J. Stroud next year. Fun.

So then he goes to Minnesota. Could be, you know, probably Darnold. And then Jacksonville in division. So nice start to the year for Houston. Always tough when you're a team that has expectations. It comes with a totally different attitude. It comes with a totally different defensive mindset for the teams you're playing against.

I do feel like Houston is right on the edge of that. I love you, but it could be a trap season type of situation. That's how I feel. They're built to win. It's just expectations are different. Well, and sometimes when the defense gets significantly better, the offense does less. They're going to run more, throw less because they need to.

All right, we've got to take a break, come back, talk about the enigmatic Jacksonville Jaguars. All right. I never know how to feel about this team from year to year. You're always hoping for the best and getting the worst. Yeah, it's just, yeah, it's a Jekyll and Hyde thing. Jacksonville was 9-8 last year. Their projected win total before the season was 9-1⁄2.

This year, it's eight and a half. What were they after week 12, Andy? You don't see it there? Eight and three. They finished nine and eight. Eight and three to nine and eight. That's one and five in the last six. And their big collapse was what happened in the last week. All they had was the second last week of the year, they had a layup matchup, and they got hammered.

Let me pull this up real quick. Because I remember they were the shoe-in to make the playoffs. They were in contention for the bye. It was like at one point, and then, yeah, the playoffs were pretty much a guarantee. It was Tennessee. That's what it was. It was the final week of the year.

They lost to the 6-11, at the time 5-11, Tennessee Titans. And it shocked everybody. And it's just. And then they were like, let's give this guy all the money. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a microcosm of Trevor Lawrence, who is sometimes he shows up, sometimes he doesn't. He was dealing with a ton of injuries. Legitimate, real injuries towards the end of the season,

where you thought he was going to miss a significant amount of time. He didn't. I don't know how much we can excuse that or not, but that is the excuse given. It's like they were doing great and then Trevor Lawrence had a lot of injuries and they they failed down the road can do you think it's a legitimate excuse no I don't either no not really and it's because of the historical evidence of Trevor Lawrence long term is the fact that they committed a ton of turnovers they were you know 27th and turnovers per drive, so they were one

of the worst teams in the league turning the ball over. The way the end of the year was disappointing. The offensive line, you can look at that in the equation of excuses, where they had players that lost time in the beginning of the year, at the end of the year. But to be dead middle and points per game with what you thought you were coming into the season with ETN Ridley, um, it's, it was disappointing. And you do have a little bit of a reworking of the offensive side, at least at the wide receiver position where you lost 33% of your targets where Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones are gone. You bring in a rookie and Brian Thomas. You bring in Gabe Davis. Both of those players, to some, profile to be identical.

I believe in Brian Thomas to be more than the deep threat that gets three targets, and if he comes down with them, you're thrilled in best ball, and if he doesn't, you didn't remember he played, which is Gabe Davis. But it's a little bit of unpredictability to factor here on what you expect from trevor lawrence and company yeah the wide receivers are very very interesting and i'm going to throw evan ingram in the mix as this conversation like i'm talking about all the pass catchers because evan ingram you know he had did he break he did not break the

record right but he got close to it. They were trying. He was a couple of receptions short. They were trying. They gave him 13 targets in the final week to hit that number. Didn't get there. But if you look at the splits of Evan Ingram when Krisha Kirk was on the field and when Krisha Kirk was not on the field, they were very, very significant. Krisha Kirk is the primary target when he was on the field.

And he also, I mean, we've seen him two years ago. Christian Kirk was the wide receiver 12 in this offense when he didn't have Calvin Ridley there. So Christian Kirk is a really hard pick because I don't think anyone has ever. Kirk or Ingram? Christian Kirk is a really hard pick because no one clicks draft and pumps their fist. Yeah. No one claps.

Oh, yeah. Christian Kirk fell to me. I've drafted a lot of Christian Kirk, and every time I do, I go, okay. All right. Yeah, I'm fine. Because he doesn't have that upside. You don't think of him as someone that- Let me quantify the lack of upside for you.

Two times in the last 19 games, he finished in the top 20 on a week. Two times in the last 19 starts that he finished top 20 in the week. He's really... I guess I should say top 19 based on how you define it. He's a 20 to 24 type of guy. That's why you feel that way. Yeah, but eight times that he finished inside the top 20 within the previous season where he was

the wide receiver at 11 with Trevor Lawrence and without Calvin Ridley. So, I mean, we have seen... But it's been a long run. I'm saying a 19-game stretch is a long stretch to not see upside. And then they go out and bring Brian Thomas in and Gabe Davis. Christian Kirk is not... I don't think any of us would argue that

Christian Kirk can hold the whole offense together without anybody else. He's not like, he's not CeeDee Lamb and he's not Jamar Chase. He's just tried and true reliable. He's a good player. He's a great player. But he's also, you don't pump your, you made the point, you don't pump your fist. No. Because you know that you can't put him in your lineup and win the week because of him

very often. You can put him in your lineup and get 10 to 12 points and maybe a big play here or there, but he's also dealt with some injury. That is a factor. You are coming back off of that. It's not sexy, man. It's not. And then you have to rely on Trevor Lawrence when you draft him.

I think he's a great flex option. And when you're going to the sixth, if that's what you're looking for is just a reliable plug and play, like I said, I've drafted a lot of Christian Kirk, but it's not when I'm trying to go for upside. It's when I'm trying to fill out a veteran depth piece. Here's a question I'll ask about Jacksonville. What happens if the Brian Thomas rookie experiment

and then the Gabe Davis free agent experiment aren't on the good side of the equation what is this team offensively they throw the ball a ton they're in the top 10 in passing but you are having to bet on new contributors right that that bet would be specter if that outcome would be spectacular for Kirk or Ingram. I mean, they would see so many targets. And I agree, you know, you have to think about Evan Ingram, a.k.a. Schmevin Schmeingram, on this show. You have to think about it in the right way where he turned into a league-winning player,

but that did, like Jay said, that correlated when Christian Kirk was out the field. But through that point, Christian Kirk got hurt in week 12, so weeks 1 through 11 in 10 games, Ingram was still pacing for 100 receptions. So he's still a solid PPR fantasy tight end, but I don't think he's the, what happened at the end of the season, you would need some wild stuff to happen. They play Miami, Cleveland, Buffalo, and Houston to start the year. That's bad.

Yeah, it's not – And not to mention Miami and Buffalo are on the road. I mean, and Houston, three out of four games on the road. That is a – That's tough. That is a scary start to the season. Like if you are looking at ETN versus somebody else that you have ranked closely, if you're looking at Kirk, you're looking at Lawrence.

If you're looking for how is a rookie wide receiver going to start his career in Brian Thomas Jr., that doesn't look great to me either. It looks a little bit scary. And so ETN, we can talk about 340 opportunities. Most forced missed tackles. Looks great all year. Was way better against bad defenses. You mentioned the injuries for Lawrence.

I'm going to mention the injuries for the offensive line over the back half of the year. He pass blocked more than any other running back in the game. Most total pass blocks. He was a true workhorse back who I think the focus has been on the polarity of the first half and second half of the year. But look, I love Travis Etienne in drafts.

I think that this offense cannot work without him. Yeah, he's a very, very explosive, good player. And they need him. They talk all the time about we're going to dial back his carries, his utilization, but Etienne is so significantly ahead of the rest of the running back core as far as just talent goes that I think Etienne is a pretty safe pick, but you have to then assume.

Obviously, you correlate how good Etienne was in the first half of the year, how bad he was in the second half. But we talked about they were winning games in the first half, and they were losing games in the second half. It's really a matter of are they, you know, this is, he needs touchdowns. He needs the team to do well. So if you, it kind of feels like you believe. He beat up bad defenses.

It kind of feels like, Andy, you believe in Etienne, but don't believe in the Jaguars. And I feel like that kind of doesn't correlate. I believe in the workhorse situation for him. And yeah, I mean, you're right. Last year he was much better in games they won. But if he's the only guy back there with his versatility, I still have confidence in him the way I did with Saquon in New York the last few years.

This is just a weird setup for this team, in my opinion, because Indianapolis, on the way up. We're talking about them now. Houston on the way up. Tennessee, we'll see. But the Colts were 9-8 as well. They were projected for 6.5 wins last year. They lose their starting quarterback in Anthony Richardson.

They end up with 9 wins, projected for 8.5 this year. They had it pretty easy over the back half of the year. Faced a bunch of rookies and backups, weeks 13 through 18. It was a rookie or a backup every week, but really impressive job, I think, by the coaching staff. Shane Steichen, they did not have a defense. They got it done, 30 firsts and points per game given up. So they had to piece it together with Gardner Minshew, the return of Jonathan Taylor.

I think the expectations are through the roof for this team this year. I mentioned, it seems like the Anthony Richardson hype is one of the key bullet points of the offseason. Where are you with this team in having a breakthrough?

I lean towards it happening. I really do. It's scary when you look at what their second half was last year and those quarterbacks that you mentioned. I mean, just reading the names of who they faced, Bryce Young, Mack Jones, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, Jake Browning, Mitchell Trubisky, Taylor Heineke, Aiden O'Connell. You should probably win some games on accident against

those guys. But I believe in Anthony Richardson as an NFL player. Obviously, everyone believes in him as a fantasy football asset because he runs the ball so much, should be good around the goal line. But I actually think he's going to be a solid NFL quarterback. If that's the case, they have the seventh easiest strength of schedule coming out this year. I really like the offense that Shane Steichen ran. They push the pace of play. They're very modern. I think this is a team that is – I think it's going to work for them.

I really do. We have never got to see Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor together. Right? Mm-hmm. Joe Flacco's the new backup, right, in Indianapolis? That is correct. So if Richardson deals with injury issues, that's who you have behind him. They drafted Adonai Mitchell in the second round,

a player that I really like, especially for a team that runs 11 personnel, the fifth most in the league. Opportunities should be coming his way to get on the field, along with Josh Downs, along with Alec Pierce, along with Michael Pittman, who just got paid. Alec Pierce ran the most routes in the NFL. Alec Pierce did. I believe, I don't have the stat in front of me, I believe it was the most in the last six years. That means he caught the most passes, right? No, he made Allen Robinson look like a good target per route run player last season. But my point is Adonai Mitchell is a player I was not bullish on. I believe that he shouldn't have been a first round pick. He wasn't. But in the draft

season, it seemed like he was a lock to be a first-round pick. But he is much better than Alec Pierce, who was on the field and running routes. There is opportunity, I think, there for Adonai. It must be annoying to run a lot of routes and take the top off of defenses and not get

opportunities. That would feel so bad. I know targets are earned, but backup quarterback, an offense protecting, and he has to run down the field alec pierce doesn't just and you know you're not getting i'm going deep and you're not getting the ball i mean yeah but at this at the same time his cardiovascular health has to be so right he's gonna live a long life gonna live a long time because of that yeah he's a thanks-stykin. They play Houston, Green Bay, Chicago, Pittsburgh to start the year. They get Jelani Woods back,

the big tight end, one of their big tight ends. And no more Zach Moss, so Jason, you have to get used to him in a different uniform. But there's a lot of, if you have confidence in the coaching staff, the division's winnable. So there's a lot of optimism with Jonathan Taylor and Richardson

finally getting a chance to start the season together. Yeah. Taylor has to deal with Anthony Richardson as a mobile quarterback, which traditionally is not great. Yeah, that turns into goal line vultures and then quarterbacks scrambling instead of extending the play and then dumping it off. Phillip Rivers, the king of that, was always delightful for for fantasy running back so he does

he has an issue with probably hitting a true ceiling this year I still think that John Taylor yes John I think Taylor's still going to be great but knowing when you draft him of like it's the the true chance of him being back to number one, it seems like it's a real low probability thing right now, which is not your favorite, but still a great player. And his floor is really high, too. It's like you assume he's going to finish between 6 and 12, which is really, really good.

But, yeah, I see what you're saying with the ceiling. The biggest conversation to me is it's michael pitman who last year for real reasons when anthony richardson was a rookie and he was in charge of the team michael pitman's adp last year was like he was he was banished to the phantom zone no one wanted to draft him i mean mean, I have been a huge supporter of Michael Pittman, the player. That's why he builds the city. And even I didn't want to draft him. In our League of Record draft, is it still around? No, I don't know.

In our League of Record draft, it got to the point and it was like, okay, I'll draft Michael Pittman. And it felt awful. We built this city. That is on time. And then it was awesome. Michael Pittman, even though he wasn't really a ceiling player, he was consistently very good for your roster.

But so, Jay, I'll throw to you because my belief in Anthony Richardson is fantasy related. I still don't know if I'm in on him as a quarterback. But do you, like Michael Pittman going in the fourth, wide receiver 21, just got paid. Are you comfortable with that price? Are you happy to draft him there? Are you willing to go up a little bit on Pittman?

I'm not willing to go up on Pittman I I you know this is a team that is going to look very different with Anthony Richardson than with Gardner Minshew um you know this is essentially going to be Richardson's full you know first full season but which he is the alpha to color it in, we saw his first game, Anthony Richardson's first game, which Pittman had a good game. He threw the ball 37 times. And then in his other full game, he threw the ball 25 times. We still have –

One of those is great. One of those is terrible. We don't know. This is why I do not – I'm not willing to use anything he did last year as any evidence for the future because he didn't have Jonathan Taylor and he barely played football. And it just feels like you need a clean slate here.

He's going to have different wide receiver weapons. It's going to be very, very interesting to watch. I think the big thing like you brought up with Jonathan Taylor, it's like the goal line, the shotgun. I mean, they were in the shotgun a ton. That's not something that Taylor's always had to do or done well so I'm I'll be honest I'm not settled on this team yeah it's this has probably the widest range of outcomes um you know if you wanted to say which team other than Tennessee finishes last, I think the Colts would be next up to finish last because the range of outcomes is Anthony Richardson isn't good.

You have as unproven a quarterback there as possible. I mean, you can't know less about a quarterback than him. Yeah, I mean, I feel like you do have the – there's like three buckets you can put Richardson in. There's the bust bucket. And again, these are not proportional that's a possibility there's the justin fields bucket where he he just isn't as a professional he's a fantasy quarterback he's a great fantasy quarterback but as a passer you know you obviously the time ran out on justin fields um which we don't know you know he had game with a 40-something percent completion percentage.

He had another game where he was good, so throw it all out. And then the other is MVP. I mean, the other is Lamar Jackson. The other is RG3's rookie year. There's those three outcomes, and I do like the coach, and I think he can stabilize things and put him in a position to succeed. So we'll take a break. We'll come back with Will Levis. All right.

We are back with the Tennessee Titans who finished 6-11. And it begins. Bananarama season begins. Will Levis. Last year, the Titans, totally different looking team, different quarterback, seven and a half win total. They end up six and 11. This year, they're projected for six and a half.

They have a tougher schedule than they'd like for Will Levis, but they couldn't score I mean they're 26 points per game 31st in pace not a fun team to watch play football and they're handing the reins over to Will Levis for his first full season in the league now I watched all the Will Levis plays too and what I see in Will Levis is a player that if the offensive line can improve protections for him, I think

he has a lot of the intangibles to extend plays and do great things down the field. Yeah, I can agree with that. And adding Calvin Ridley and having Pollard out of the backfield and Sharp out of the backfield and Hopkins as a stabilizer still there, and athleticism at the tight end position with Chigokonkwo,

his problem was getting himself into a lot of trouble by doing too much, trying to do too much, putting the team on his back. But I think the physical skills for Will Levis are there, and I think Tennessee is a team that I believe could surprise. Brand new head coach Brian Callahan coming in. Tons of weapons on offense. I do believe that Tennessee has the potential to

compete in this division. I think that they have the potential to compete as well. Will Levis, he's fun to watch. I am rooting for him to win the offensive line was improved they spent the uh the number seven overall on jc latham projects to be a a very good offensive lineman that'll help the last this is the last place offensive line from last year right where he

was under pressure 45 of the time pff has moved their ranking up from 32 to 30 so it still does not project where these trends continue it doesn't project to be a great offensive line but also last year he you know he didn't have calvin ridley to throw the ball to he was a rookie he didn't have tyler boyd to throw the ball to so he's got a veteran group of wide receivers i hope they're not too veteran no it's a good point they there are they are some names that would have looked real sexy five years ago. Oh, man, five years ago, this would have been the Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyler Boyd would be like, that's the best receiving core in the league.

Now it's an elder statesman. But he can also dump the ball off to both Tony Pollard and Tajay Spears. Good pass catching backs. I'm rooting for them. I mean, you know, I do think they can take a step forward, but I don't believe they have a good defense, which could be great for fantasy, and I don't think their offensive line is

fixed enough for Will Levis. It'll be interesting, Mike. Give me your take on the interchangeability of Tony Pollard and Tajay Spears at running back and your expectations for fantasy purposes between the two, I I don't want I don't want fantasy players to just wash them both out thinking that they're the same player or the the exact same outcome because

they're not they're not the same player they don't have the same experience same um explosiveness but how do you see yourself approaching them in the drafts because they're late picks yeah they are tony pollard is going a couple rounds ahead of of tajay spears tony pollard in the eighth spears in the 10th and it's just you know it's got to start with okay remembering tajay spears rookie campaign which was i think really ended up much better than you would have imagined for a third-round rookie to be behind Derrick Henry. He finished with 70 targets. 52 for 385 through the air, 100 carries. Only that makes more sense with Derrick Henry, but for 453 yards.

His issue, his long-term issue, I think it was like a knee. There's like a degenerative knee situation where he's probably not long for the NFL. He became the, me just, a dynasty darling for a pretty small amount of time when it was confirmed Derrick Henry wasn't coming back and you didn't know Tony Pollard was coming to town. So then just but specifically talking between the

two of them, I'm going to follow the money. They gave Tony Pollard enough that I believe that he's firmly the starter and while we're all upset with Tony Pollard for not coming through last year for fantasy, he got better over the second half.

Still recovering from that injury. We have said it a few times on the show of his rushing grade from PFF. From the moment he said he was healthy, it was very good. His elusiveness was much better in terms of metrics of, you know, essentially jukes per attempt, those things. But where the concern comes in is that the coaching staff does talk about them as interchangeable, and I don't project this to be a good team. I don't normally want a running back from a bad team unless I know that that is a workhorse running back.

And if you have a platoon that is not the 60 40 then it's i think they both just probably cannibalize each other to the point of you're on a week-to-week basis you won't be comfortable starting either of them well i'll keep talking about calvin ridley i think he's gonna have a fantastic season brian callahan has talked to him in the context of the Jamar Chase type of opportunities and ability to be given the ball down the field. Will Levis loves to chuck it. And so I'm excited about him. I feel like I'm doing good work here because I think Ridley and Hopkins were more neck and neck in ADP like a couple months ago.

Now they're about a round apart. Are you guys taking the discount on Hopkins versus Calvin Ridley or am I doing any work here? No, I think if I'm that late, if I'm at the eighth round, the ninth round, and those two guys are there, I would prefer Ridley. Like Mike said, you follow the eighth round the ninth round and those two guys are there i would prefer ridley uh like mike said you follow the money this is they gave him an insane amount of money that says they are bringing him in to have him play that number one reckless amount of money that is yeah when i say insane i don't mean like whoa so much it's like no that is that an insane person that's

too much money yeah calvin ridley was like i thought I was going back to the Falcons, but did you see that money? Well, Ridley had two of his biggest games against this team last year. Oh, that makes sense. I will say this. You have made me stop and pause when I'm on the clock and I see Calvin Ridley's name and thinking, okay, maybe there is an avenue where he has a very, very good season. Those deep targets from Will Levis, but I usually still bypass him. I feel like DeAndre Hopkins on the other side of the field,

Will Levis at quarterback, Calvin Ridley a year older, new team. There's a lot of – I would rather invest in Pollard or Spears. I feel like those are more explosive, younger athletes that if either one of them were to get injured, the other one becomes really, really, really valuable. And in the meantime, you could probably flex either one in a pinch. All right, I want to hear your predictions for the division. I'm going to go Houston wins it. So they hold on.

I'm going to take Indianapolis second. I'm going to take Indianapolis second I'm going to take Tennessee third and I think I think this is the downfall look with Doug Peterson teams don't get better over time they get worse he wins the locker room he inspires them and then over time it doesn't get better I'm going to take Jacksonville slip in all the way to the bottom which Jason said the two teams that he thought he could potentially finish last were Indy and Tennessee but I think Jacksonville ends up in the basement

this year. Houston, Indy, Tennessee, Jacksonville. I think Houston is the best team in this division but I'm actually going to take Indianapolis to finish ahead based on the strength of schedule and kind of some of the splits we saw last year on good teams versus bad teams

with Houston. Houston will then finish second, Jacksonville third, and I'll have the Titans coming in in fourth. I'm going to be boring, and I'm going to re-roll it the way that they finished last year. Okay. I'm going to make you pick a winner between

the two 9-8 teams. Jacksonville and Indy were 9-8, so who wins the tiebreaker there then? Jacksonville. Okay, so literally the exact same thing. All right, that'll do it for today's episode of the show. Check out the Ultimate Draft Kit at ultimatedraftkit.com. We do have a Saturday episode. We're three shows a week in July, so we'll have an AFC East episode then,

AFC West on Tuesday, and we'll flip over to the NFC after that with a mock draft episode in between. So lots coming your way from the fantasy footballers. YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers. If you want to watch it over there, click the bell. Find out when a new episode is hitting. Goodbye, everybody. Thank you for joining us. Man, that dream.

I can't shake it, guys. You were here. i was there goodbye sounds scary thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.