Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - AFC West Breakdown, Hunches & Haunches - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/16

Episode Date: July 16, 2024

Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Chargers! AFC West preview on today’s fantasy football podcast! Which Chiefs WR will have the best season? Are the Raiders a team to avoid all together in fantasy football ...drafts? Andy, Mike, and Jason break down the division with insights to how these offenses may function in 2024! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for July 16th, 2024. Intro - 0:00:00 NFL News - 0:04:55 AFC West Divisional Breakdown - 0:09:35 Kansas City Chiefs - 0:11:32 Las Vegas Raiders - 0:24:25 Denver Broncos - 0:41:16 Los Angeles Chargers - 0:53:15  2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:51 Conditions apply. Scotiabank, you're richer than you think. The Ultimate Draft Kit is live right now and it is still being updated. In fact, this thing will be updated to the point of NFL kickoffs. Get ready for your drafts, sleepers, breakouts, busts, a bunch of tools on here to help you make the best decisions you can make for your fantasy football team. Get in on the action right now, ultimatedraftkit.com. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in.
Starting point is 00:01:57 Tuesday, July 16th. Back in the building. Welcome in, Foot Clan. Back in the building. That's going to be what a lot of NFL players are saying this week. As rookies show up, training camps are kicking off, boys. The rookie dates are approaching? Yes, sir. Yes, sir.
Starting point is 00:02:16 Which means we will have more camp hype, and the hype train will be riding through. They're laying down the track right now. It's a good time. It's a good time. It's a great time. I have been watching Receiver on Netflix, so I've seen three episodes of that. I know the Hard Knocks thing is going on right now with the Giants, and then camp's about to start.
Starting point is 00:02:38 But this happens every year. You know, the draft is very fun. Free agency is a good time time but right now just watching three episodes of that show of receiver yeah i've just seen football i'm like you know what i'm i missed that a whole lot oh for sure i whenever this time of year rolls around and you see a play you're like oh man i do love this game um i'm caught up on the hard knocks as well the offseason okay and i think it's i think it's way better than the than the than the regular one see i'm so much more interested in all the offseason transactions
Starting point is 00:03:18 but we're the nerds like right yeah so i'm so are the people listening to this show yeah i'm just saying like the mainstream i don't well we'll see if they get enough numbers to keep this going. I mean, they are going for it because it's the – is it the Bears? Yeah. And then did I hear an in-season – I think there's an in-season Hard Knocks, too. Which there has been. There's been an in-season.
Starting point is 00:03:41 An official Hard Knocks? There's been an official Hard Knocks the last two years. Really? With your Arizona Cardinals. Cardinals were the first year. Oh, I didn't remember that. That's hard knocks. I thought I was thinking of flight plan, but that's our local thing.
Starting point is 00:03:51 Yeah, there's local things everywhere. But look, football is coming. The point was, there's too much hard knocks. This season, in season, they're going to follow an entire division. Oh, okay. Which we already covered on the divisional breakdowns, the AFC North. Okay. So they're going to cover multiple teams this year on the in season one which will be interesting
Starting point is 00:04:09 but I've enjoyed that receiver show I know a lot of people watch the quarterback show I know Papa Josh you were watching that as well but I mean it's fun you get to know players you get to know the personalities and what makes them go so it's it's
Starting point is 00:04:26 been a good time today we we're talking through the afc west which i believe if the chiefs win it for two more years they do have to rename the division after the chiefs right as if it's 10 years right if you do 10 straight and his naming rights how many years was the the patriots 150 you talking about the patriots division yes Are you talking about the Patriots division? Yes, I am talking about the Patriots division. Yeah, I think it was 13 for what it's worth. But at the top, before we jump in, we got some news to talk about. I'll go, unfortunately.
Starting point is 00:04:58 The UDK, Mike mentioned it, ultimatedraftkid.com, available right now. Go check that out and if you are near the la area or the united states or i don't know the northern hemisphere just like wherever there's an airport the 10th anniversary megalo show our live event is saturday august 24th at the palace theater you can get tickets to come see the live show we're also going to do uh after the show is over, which that'll be a podcast episode, so you'll be a part of a live episode. And then right after the live show,
Starting point is 00:05:32 those that are there will enjoy a half hour to an hour AMA with... Brooks will be back in the building. So Brooks will be hosting that, and you can get tickets at ballerslive.com. That is going to be super fun. We were at that venue last year, and it was a great time.
Starting point is 00:05:49 I wanted to do a quick question, but we got to talk about news. Hmm. News and notes from around the league. Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison was arrested on Friday on suspicion of driving under the influence. Last summer, he was guilty to a misdemeanor speeding charge where he was driving 140 miles an hour. Not good.
Starting point is 00:06:15 This year, he was driving zero miles an hour and sold out on the freeway, allegedly passed out on the freeway. Now he's been arrested. Now he has no signs of Vikings memorabilia on his Instagram. Yeah, I mean, it's a real knucklehead type of move. A couple days after losing a rookie teammate to a drunk driving incident. As far as how this affects fantasy football. Oftentimes with these cases, they'll let the entire legal procedure play out and then the suspension.
Starting point is 00:06:53 So it would potentially be the following season, assuming that he is guilty. But I think the fact that he had a driving incident last offseason, there's really been a couple big spotlights on the NFL because of driving incidents recently, including the Henry Ruggs. Catastrophe? Yeah, I couldn't find the right word. Thank you. So the fact that we're now on a second strike here for Addison,
Starting point is 00:07:31 they might come in early with the suspension. But, yeah, Jason's right. They usually wait. But now it is up in the air of he could miss a handful of games to start. Yeah, so the legal proceedings will have to take place. We don't know if Addison would be pleading earlier or whether it's a long process. Just don't know a whole lot, but that has happened.
Starting point is 00:07:55 Keaton Mitchell was placed on the PUP to start training camp. As expected, yeah. And then T. Higgins did not reach an extension by the deadline. As expected. He will be a free agent next year. He's going to play on the franchise tag. I believe he's already signed that, right? He's not going to be back in Cincinnati.
Starting point is 00:08:14 Correct. That would be really, really surprising if they find a way to keep him in 25. It is one of the reasons why I think Jermaine Burton is really interesting. All right. Any other news that we need to discuss? It is one of the reasons why I think Jermaine Burton is really interesting. All right. Any other news that we need to discuss? No, sir. With the season approaching so quickly, Jason,
Starting point is 00:08:37 has it given you time to kind of sit back and reflect on my title in League of Record? I haven't thought one moment about it. Really? I hear many people are thinking about it. I'm still not thinking about it. Really? Right now as you're bringing it up I think you are. I think deep down. Not even rolling around in there. Mike's thinking about it. Jason, with the season approaching
Starting point is 00:08:53 has that given you time to think and reflect of my dynasty championship? What dynasty championship? Oh, okay. Okay. You did take a vacation those last three days i'm assuming to kind of forget about it for a little while um but you didn't quite hit all the spots with the suntan lotion uh no my back i've got two wings um you got the devil's
Starting point is 00:09:19 wings i've got the devil's wings on my back there's just like you know the haunches i don't know i don't know what you call them. I think you think everything's a haunch. That's what I think. But there's. It's towards the back, right? Yeah, it's the haunch. He's referred to 10 to 12 parts of his body as his haunches over the years.
Starting point is 00:09:36 How many haunches you got? Yeah, and they're very bright red. That's a new nickname. Just little wings. Just two spots forgotten. It was the spray areas right yeah i think you need a phone a friend yeah you know what i mean for the haunches it it's said best that sunblock is a team sport yeah like i thought i knew what it was but i wanted to make
Starting point is 00:09:56 sure which it is a buttock and thigh considered together so you are that's what i thought you're talking about i knew it he's talking about his tricepp butts he's talking about way up where his shoulder blades are also known as jason's haunches oh my back butt that's what i'm talking about my upper back butt i thought he's been using different body parts for this you like that word i do like that word it's it's a good word when it's when it's you know when it's thick that's a good word. When it's, you know, when it's thick, that's a haunch. Oh, boy. I guess we have to move on. Let's get divisional.
Starting point is 00:10:43 All right. We are in the AFC West. This is our final AFC divisional breakdown. And we'll look at players, coaches, rookies, offensive situations, how things can function for the upcoming year. Don't look at the show doc. Neither of you. Okay. Okay.
Starting point is 00:11:04 All right. Tell me how the division finished last year. Oh, I am aware of this because, because second place was the Las Vegas Raiders with a losing record. And you go, well, the Raiders were so,
Starting point is 00:11:18 so bad last year. They had to fire their coach midway and they were second place. That's how bad that division was. But they were 8-9. They didn't feel like an 8-9 team. You're saying they felt worse than that. Yeah. Yeah, I think both.
Starting point is 00:11:32 Because of dysfunction? They got it going. Yes, they did. If you remember, over the back half. Both the Broncos and the Raiders had such calamitous beginnings to the season that you didn't remember that they actually were getting things going a little bit at the end of the season for both teams. The Raiders 8-9, Broncos 8-9, Chargers were 5-12. Chiefs have won this division eight straight seasons six with Mahomes and they had two with Alex Smith the two prior
Starting point is 00:12:09 years to Mahomes existing so uh it is their division they've owned it for a while they were 11 and 6 that was a bit of a surprising year for them. They had some ups and downs. And when we look at Kansas City, we've seen the adjustment in the way the offense has functioned. Jason, you've spent the offseason talking all about Isaiah Pacheco. Yeah, I think this is a team that I expect to bounce back to scoring more points. However, not all the way back to where they were when they had terrible defenses. Their defense is legit, and they just won a Super Bowl on the back of a great defense.
Starting point is 00:12:51 Like the number one points per game defense? Exactly. That seems pretty legit. That seems pretty okay. And so you're not going to need to score 40. And when you've got Pacheco and a strong offensive line as one of your best weapons, you're just going to run the clock out at the end of the game. It's going to be easy.
Starting point is 00:13:09 I mean, just because you have Mahomes doesn't mean you have to use him downfield. He really didn't go downfield this last year. Only five of their games hit the over. So there weren't the shootouts of days of old. So that was an adjustment. Now you went into your rankings. the shootouts of days of old. And so that was an adjustment. Now you went into your rankings, I know, so far this offseason, Jason. You were very high on Patrick Mahomes. They added Hollywood Brown.
Starting point is 00:13:33 They added Xavier Worthy. First-round draft pick, Hollywood, coming over from Arizona, one-year deal. No more MVS. No more Jarek McKinnon. Don't know how long it'll be without Rashi Rice. Yep, that's still up in the air. And then, obviously, we've got Travis Kelsey signed a new deal. Obviously, I got that done for him.
Starting point is 00:13:55 He's on my Dynasty team. Still working on a couple more guys. Yeah, good work. But how do you see, you know, they're going for three in a row. Do we see some balancing here? I think you've still got, obviously, a great offense here. They're the Super Bowl champs. I want to read to you their points per game over the Mahomes era.
Starting point is 00:14:19 Okay, in 2018, they were scoring 35 points a game. That's outlandishly high for an entire season. However, since that point, 28.2 points per game, 29.6, 28.2, 29.2. So they're always at the 28, 29 points per game as a team. And this past season, they were down at 21.8 points per game. We felt that in fantasy football. You felt that with Mahomes, especially the second half of last year. And while I don't necessarily think, I mean, I was just saying their
Starting point is 00:14:49 defense is better. They're going to be able to run the ball more. I don't, I think they will be, you know, they'll land in the middle there. Their points should go up this season. And I think that most of the players on the Chiefs are a little undervalued right now. I think they're going to beat their current projections or their, based on ADP. Same exact win total as last year, 11 and a half going into this season. It's just pretty massive. What are we thinking, Mike, about the emergence of the rookie, Xavier Worthy. Everyone wants the higher upside targets for Patrick Mahomes. Yeah, I kind of wanted to start the conversation with Rasheed Rice, which the legal situation is, as of talking right now,
Starting point is 00:15:37 it is still all up in the air. And we have no idea what the suspension is going to be. It could be, what is the high end that we'd have heard? I can't remember from Davenport. Probably eight. So it's like anywhere from one to eight, which that's a huge variance. But right now, going as the wide receiver, 39. And before all of this
Starting point is 00:16:06 if Rasheed Rice had a clean off season, was heading into the draft this year, he's probably a what? Wide receiver 15 somewhere around there. I'd say like a third round pick or so right around there. So
Starting point is 00:16:20 at this point, if you want to take on the risk, wide receiver 39, it is really, really baked in there. Maybe the suspension comes in and it's four games, and you're waiting just four games for a guy who really, really turned it on there at the end of the season when he became the primary guy, yeah, he's not like an elite route runner, but he was an elite yards after catch guy. Only one of his touchdowns came from further than 11 yards out, and they were utilizing him, and his yards per route run is at a place that is very exciting. So I think that's the – what is your appetite right now
Starting point is 00:17:02 with his suspension and where he is going? Let's have that conversation then. Let's have the conversation that let's go outside the suspension because let's pretend it's four, three, two, whatever. Go outside of that scope because I'm telling you, if it's two or three games, the conversation about Xavier Worthy is completely different. I agree.
Starting point is 00:17:21 And so let's pretend they're all on the field. Right. That recipe, because Kelsey's still going to be your premium target. Rashi Rice, they utilized him in a ton of different ways. They brought back Nicole Hardman. Xavier Worthy is there.
Starting point is 00:17:36 Hollywood Brown is there. Justin Watson is still there, right? Yep, and they're going to have packages for all these guys. You saw Rashi Rice get the pitches around the goal line and the end rounds and the little plays i guess i'm just wondering how you would maybe the suspension is is making it more difficult to analyze everything which it obviously is but just because you're never looking at it as one big picture right and and you know it takes some of these wide receivers like even rashi rice last, took him some time to get used to this system and to be.
Starting point is 00:18:08 Yeah, you've got to earn the trust of Mahomes. Get on the field, get in all those different snap packages. And so if he is there, I believe he's the clear number two target, Rushie Rice. Kelsey will be the number one target. Rushie Rice will be the number two target. Then you'll have packages for Xavier Worthy, who I really am confident is going to work. I think he is going to work. I think he's going to have a successful career. All the metrics, my personal belief on the film, everything was good. The only thing that was bad is he's a little bitty baby boy. But by good, do you mean a good
Starting point is 00:18:39 NFL player or you think it will work for fantasy football? I mean that all the metrics that we care about for working for both fantasy football and the NFL, you know, breakout age, college dominator, touchdown shares, all those type of things. He pretty much checks almost all those boxes. So if he is a successful NFL wide receiver and he's with Andy Reid and he's with Mahomes he's going to be decent for fantasy football now this season it's going to be a little bit harder because you've still got Kelsey soaking up the number one targets and he's a rookie I can tell you real quick of with my projections because right now I have him at 11 games I just took the the high and the low that we're hearing about suspension, so I took six games off.
Starting point is 00:19:29 If I gave him a full season, he's in my top 20. And if it somehow comes out that it's only a four-game or fewer suspension, people will have gotten a huge fantasy discount. Is there any chance that it's pushed into 2025? I probably, I mean, I, the NFL, sometimes they move quick. Sometimes they move real slow. But this is this conversation. We haven't even really discussed Hollywood Brown, who I, I don't know how much he has
Starting point is 00:19:59 left anyways. But, you know, if he's in that MVS role, whether you're going in on Rushie Rice or whether you think Xavier Worthy is going to, you know, he's going to have his big plays, but maybe he won't be consistent. And you got Hollywood there and you've got Kelsey. This is why I like Patrick Mahomes so much this year. He has significantly better weapons. Because you don't have to decide. And you don't have to decide who it's going to be. You know he's going to throw a ton of touchdowns. And he's discounted from the past few seasons. Hollywood's 27. Just turned 27.
Starting point is 00:20:30 He's been disappointing, man. That's an old 27. It feels that way. He just hasn't been good in a while. He hasn't been healthy as well. The last time he played a full season in Baltimore, he was a top 24 wide receiver. Arizona, he played 12 games and he played 14 games out of 17. And when he was on the field, I mean, he was clearly hampered by that heel.
Starting point is 00:20:51 Yeah, for sure. I mean, if you look at the first five games before he got hurt last year, he would have been on pace for 85 for over 1,000 and 10 touchdowns. That's great. Which would have been, you know, a lot better. But I just wonder wonder is he a dark horse in the whole equation um i think there's a chance but i i would put a very low odds if rice is off the field and what we've seen of rookie acclimation in kansas city holds true i think
Starting point is 00:21:20 hollywood brown's first four or five weeks could be very interesting because where else is the ball going to go? You're telling me where are these going to come in on day one? McCall Hardman? That's where it's like Hollywood looks like a sneaky start of the year. I think you get just an absolute round table of the guys there. Everyone's getting snatched. That's what it's been. And then Kelsey, what are your expectations for, you know,
Starting point is 00:21:45 he signed a two-year deal in extension. He's getting up there. They're going for three. He's going to have a worse season this year than he had last year. And last year felt really, really bad because it was the first time in however long that he wasn't the number one tight end. He still has probably the best odds to be the number one tight end it's just going to progressively slow down a little bit but he's you know if you look at his you know his yards per out run his
Starting point is 00:22:13 average depth of target his snap percentages everything has come down a little bit but he's still great and right now he's at a discount from you know you were drafting him with the number five pick last year and now he's not even the first tight end off the board. He only scored five times. He had 12 touchdowns the year before. That's an area where, like, you could have a similar fantasy finish even if his total stats production-wise go down, but the touchdowns come up.
Starting point is 00:22:38 I guess, do you believe in him still being a difference maker? For your fantasy team? Yeah. Like at a onesie position. Yeah. So then, okay. I think he'd be worth the draft then. Baltimore, Cincinnati to start the year,
Starting point is 00:22:53 then Atlanta and L.A. on the road. But they're at home for their first two games. It's going to be a fun year to watch and see what happens with this offense with Andy Reid. And back to Isaiah Pacheco pretty quick. Yeah, we should. Because he's being drafted as the running back 12. I'm with Jason
Starting point is 00:23:12 and I think that he's being underdrafted at the running back 12. He's at the back of the third right now on sleeper. Over the second half of the season, he was seventh in running back red zone touches. And he was seeing so much work. As of right now, Jared McKinnon is not back.
Starting point is 00:23:29 That was in games played. McKinnon was at about 7% target share. I think there is a world where Pacheco gets that huge, the Kareem Hunt-sized workload. They won't be a complete and total run first team like some of the Kareem Hunt-sized workload. They won't be a complete and total run-first team like some of the Kareem Hunt years, but I think there's a chance that he is everything for this team. I think the reason his ADP is there is because there are people like me
Starting point is 00:23:58 that have a weird hesitation giving him the push up into the upper echelon because he was 20 opportunities a game after the bye. We only got to see five games of that. Before the bye, he was 17 opportunities, and he wasn't the player that people hoped he was going to be, fantasy-wise, before the bye week. So I have this, like, I think it's because it was such a small run. Obviously, the playoffs are involved, and that is part of the picture. But because it wasn't a full season
Starting point is 00:24:28 sample of that kind of a workload, obviously you guys are saying, hey, we're going to get there. Yeah, that's the bet that's being made, is he going to become the real true bell cow usage? And I believe he is. And should he receive that in this offense offense he'll be great I'm looking at um I'm trying to look at the post season stats here I guess he was all right he got a lot of work um 24 for 89 15 for 97 24 for 68 18 for 59 so So majority work. So there you go. Let's take a quick break.
Starting point is 00:25:09 Come back with more of the AFC West. All right. The Las Vegas Raiders. Just talked about them. 8-9. Started out 3-5. If you're watching a receiver in Devontae Adams, he was unhappy. He was as unhappy a person as we were fantasy managers of Devontae Adams. And then they went 5-4 with Antonio Pierce. Then they started hyper-targeting Devontae Adams.
Starting point is 00:25:43 He is a really, really interesting conversation, in my opinion. Adams? Yes, Adams. I mean, you're talking about the alpha of alphas at the position who came there, who had the famous comment about
Starting point is 00:26:00 it's not just wins and losses, I'm about greatness, which some people turned on him because of that comment. I'm probably not on that side when your offense was as bad as it was before the transition. You know, they have a great defense last year. They were 11th in points per game.
Starting point is 00:26:16 People need to associate the Raiders and a good defense. They need to associate those things in their minds. When you think about them going into the year. If you believe that the Jets are going to have a competitive season, you're believing it on the back of that defense. Yes, I know Aaron Rodgers,
Starting point is 00:26:36 we hope he can be everything. Or why the Steelers? You believe the Steelers can have success. Well, last year they fought through horrible offensive play. The Raiders defense was elite over the back half of the year under Antonio Pierce.
Starting point is 00:26:53 They're going to be in the mix to be... Who's your second favorite team in this division right now? Are you handing it over to the 5-12 Chargers because of the head coaching change? Yeah. Was that rhetorical?
Starting point is 00:27:07 No, it was real. I mean, I knew your answer ahead of time. Yeah. But I don't think personnel-wise they're – I mean, the Chargers defense for years has struggled. You've seen the maturation. Max Crosby in this defense with Antonio Pierce, they bring him back. Yeah, I mean, the issue usually always in the NFL is quarterback.
Starting point is 00:27:27 Who's your quarterback? I'll bet on the quarterback over a good defense. You know, the Jets didn't do well last year with their unbelievable defense when they had no quarterback to throw. So is Gardner Minshew no quarterback? I think Gardner Minshew and Aiden O'Connell are absolutely not good enough to – they're not good enough to give me trust that they're going to have a magical season. I don't think they've got the skill set and the tools to do it.
Starting point is 00:28:00 They're able to manage a game here and there. Colts were 9-8 last year. Raiders a better defense. And the Colts had 9-8 last year. Raiders are a better defense. And the Colts had a decent offense last year. Like, we're not thinking magical season, but realistically
Starting point is 00:28:13 this offense, I think it's going to be Aiden O'Connell, but that could change very rapidly. But let's say it's Aiden O'Connell. Are they a bottom 10 offense? Or very rapidly. Let's say it's Aiden O'Connell. Are they a bottom 10 offense? Or are they in the middle?
Starting point is 00:28:31 Where do you think that could finish? Last year they were 27th in points per game among Brian Hoyer, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Aiden O'Connell. I bring that up because of some historical data that I've been trying to gather here. Over the past five years, guys who were drafted in the top 24, they end up finishing on a team with a bottom 10 offense. So going into the year – You're talking about running backs?
Starting point is 00:28:56 These are wide receivers. Say that all again. Okay. So these are guys drafted top 24 ADP. Wide receivers. Wide receivers. Okay. And then at the end of the year, it ends up they're on receivers. Wide receivers. Okay. And then at
Starting point is 00:29:05 the end of the year, it ends up they're on a bottom 10 offense. Okay. What percentage? I'm just, so the amount I hope he does. I hope he goes, I have no idea. I'm like, I'm trying to figure this stat out because you're not giving me the numbers. Oh, you're setting up the numbers. Yes, I'm setting up the table. I thought you just
Starting point is 00:29:21 omitted it twice. No, no, no. It's a little convoluted, so I want it to be understood what I'm saying. Whoops. Drafted top 24. Their offense finishes bottom 10. You have 23 players fit that category.
Starting point is 00:29:38 Seven succeeded. So basically saying that if you end up on a bottom 10 scoring offense, we already know that offense matters, but it matters more than you realize. And I'm talking about meeting their ADP, because last year while Devontae Adams finished as the wide receiver 11, he was drafted as the wide receiver 8. When you're drafted that high to finish three spots behind your ADP
Starting point is 00:30:03 is a negative impact to your team. Well, and people didn't. If you had Devontae Adams, it was not a great experience. Yeah, then there's consistency. He finished as the wide receiver 11 on the back of, you know, 8 billion targets, but he still wasn't consistent. He has a CNR consistency rating. The majority of his games were actually unhelpful. Obviously, he did have monstrous huge games and still looked the part. He's always open, but can he get a quarterback that can throw him the ball while he turns 32 years old?
Starting point is 00:30:33 It's easier for me to bet against this. There's just enough yellow flags, and obviously he's a great, great wide receiver, but when you're being drafted as a top 10 wide receiver, so is everybody else around you. It was better consistency-wise after the departure of Josh McDaniels. And at least with Devontae Adams, it wasn't a lack of capability. It was a lack of targeting and giving opportunities. I mean, he had a number of these games where,
Starting point is 00:31:14 I don't know if you remember the Green Bay Packers game where he was on Monday Night Football against the Packers, and he had like one target in the first half of that game. And it's like there's some unexcusable, like a five-game stretch that it just went right in between where he got Josh McDaniels fired, where he was on pace for a five-game stretch for 60 catches and 600 yards and no touchdowns. But outside of that five-game stretch,
Starting point is 00:31:40 he was a lot more consistent over the course of the year. I just think you saw the result of Antonio Pierce coming in, and the targets were outrageous. Like 180, 190 target pace. So if you tell me right now you're getting 180 targets, I don't care who's throwing him the football. He has a place high up in the wide receiver ranking. Yeah, I mean, he finished as the wide receiver 11 last year. If he's going to get 180 targets, which it could happen, he should be a low-end wide receiver one.
Starting point is 00:32:11 But when you're drafting these guys in that range, you're hoping that they've got the ability to vault themselves up into the top five. I don't know that the quarterback play here and the touchdown specifically can make him a top five pick. Is he a somewhat safe low and wide receiver one? Sure, but that's not what I want to draft at that point that early in draft. Josh Jacobs is gone.
Starting point is 00:32:36 They were 30th in rushing yards last year, the Raiders, a season after Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing yards. They draft Brock Bowers. So they bring in one of the highest, most heralded young rookie tight ends. They bring in no other big-name running backs. Alexander Madison is so upset at you right now. No, he's not. No, he's not.
Starting point is 00:33:08 He's just thrilled he got a job. He was happy to be called not in that category. He goes, whoa, whoa, whoa. Do I have to be the starter? And they're like, no, no, no. Zemir will be. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm in.
Starting point is 00:33:19 I love being the backup running back. So the keys are going to be Zemir White, Alexander Madison. And when you say those two names and then you say two quarterbacks, that means you don't know which one's going to start, which means you have none, as Madden would formally say. That combination doesn't seem great. No, you would expect them to be like mike was saying it probably near a bottom 10 offense they're not going to be one of the worst of the
Starting point is 00:33:52 worst but they're not going to be a top half give me your projected win total do you know what it is my projected win total for do i raiders do you already know what vegas has no i don't do you mike i don't i would give. Give me the number based on this conversation. I think it should be seven and a half. I would set their line at six and a half. Six and a half is the number. Okay. Which is not a lot.
Starting point is 00:34:13 Not a lot. So, Zemir White, you know, Mike, you gave a stat about those wide receivers. I mean. I have the same in the same stat. Oh, please say it differently, though. No, the Zach Moss stat. I still don't know that number. Here's the too long. Say it differently, though. No, the Zach Moss stat. I still don't know that number. Here's the too long didn't read on the wide receiver stat is
Starting point is 00:34:31 if you're on a bottom 10 scoring offense, chances are you're not going to hit your ADP if you're drafted in the top 24. That was well said. Give him a round of applause, Mike. That was very, very good. The people love it. Look at that. That was so concise.
Starting point is 00:34:46 I understand. Sometimes you've got to give the numbers, though, so people know what you're talking about. I mentioned the numbers for Zach Moss of it's maddening. Historically, it should not work for Zach Moss, but he has all these things pointing of it should
Starting point is 00:35:02 work for Zach Moss. Well, Zemir White is in a somewhat similar situation. Since 2014, running backs drafted since 2014, 71 of them have finished at least once in the top 24, but only 11 of those 71, the first time they finished the top 24 came in year three. These guys hit in year one or year two or they or they don't hit at all and then when you throw in his draft capital it's it's Naeem Hines yeah I was gonna say when when you get the hits later it's usually pass catching running backs those those are the ones that kind of surprise after a couple years fluky outlier year where you you catch 60 passes
Starting point is 00:35:41 exactly and that's not what zamir white projects to be so you've got a you've got a guy who's getting great opportunity you saw him in a four game stretch when he was given the opportunity last year be really really good he touched the ball 93 times yeah and he was never uh worse than a running back two for fantasy but these things just don't work when you're when you're a a non-elite running back who hasn't done it for a couple years in their career on a not great offense, it just doesn't work for fantasy. He couldn't remind me more of Alexander Madison from last year coming into this season. The incumbent, who was a star, Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, leaves. The team says we're good enough with the backup that had some success only when the incumbent was hurt.
Starting point is 00:36:31 Right. Same situation for both of them. And now you go into the season and, ironically, Alexander Madison comes in to be your backup slash who knows if it's committee. It's just such a small sample last year on a team you don't have confidence in. Does that mean only Alexander Madison can work? Once Zemir White goes down, then the backup that goes in can actually have small stretches. They only can succeed if they come in for someone.
Starting point is 00:37:00 Exactly. So it would be best for Zemir White if they put somebody else at the top of the depth chart. 100%. Yeah, I'm out on this backfield. I don't really want to play around with this. This is the definition. Sounds like you're out on the quarterback and the wide receivers too. Correct. Let's talk tight end because I'm out. I know that a lot of people love Brock Bowers and I loved him as a prospect. I don't think there's a great landing spot for him. Rookie tight ends, despite Sam Laporta last year, don't usually do a lot. And then you find him going to a team. They drafted best player available. They looked at
Starting point is 00:37:38 their board and they said, wow, Brock Bowers fell to us. We're going to take him. This was not a team that was like, we know how we can use Brock Bowers. You know, we're targeting us. We're going to take him. This was not a team that was like, we know how we can use Brock Bowers. You know, we're targeting him. We need him. They took Michael Mayer last year. And if you look at a quote from the tight end coach of this team, he says, first things first, I tell our guys, they're going to earn their opportunities in the past game by blocking in the run game. That might be an old school mentality, but that's my approach. Tight ends are blockers first, and then we can go make plays in the past game. That might be an old school mentality, but that's my approach. Tight ends are blockers first, and then we can go make plays in the pass game. That's just the icing
Starting point is 00:38:08 on the cake. Well, for fantasy football, that sucks. And I don't like you. For building a team, that's dumb. Take a lineman. I think Brock Bowers will be fine as a rookie. But I don't think... What is
Starting point is 00:38:23 fine? A top 10 guy? Competing for top 10, yeah. But I don't think – What is fine to top 10? Competing for top 10, yeah. But I don't think – I mean, last year's all in Kincaid. Successful rookie season, not reliable enough. Flashes of greatness when opportunities present themselves mixed in with just the learning process of a tight end. I think that that's what you'll see. I think you'll see. I would probably handicap it at six
Starting point is 00:38:47 extremely fantasy-relevant games. I think the Dalton-Kincaid comp is great. I really do. You've got a situation where you're coming in and you've got one dominant wide-receiving option on the roster and you kind of already had a somewhat incumbent tight end on the roster.
Starting point is 00:39:04 The problem is you don't have josh allen you've got bad quarterback plays next yeah and he's not getting drafted appropriately like brock bowers if you told me you could take him with your last pick to see what happens in the first few weeks like you could have with like a laporta last year cool but like he's going in the seventh round in the top 10 already. If you think his ceiling is tight in 10 or 9, which is what I'm saying, and you're drafting him at 9, that's the worst pick you could make.
Starting point is 00:39:34 That's the worst fantasy pick you could make. Because you won't pivot from a guy you drafted, and you won't get what you wanted. He's a super talented player, but he's going to take some time. Yeah, and redraft, don't draft him. Other discussions. That can't possibly come back to hurt me. No, never, never.
Starting point is 00:39:53 But, yeah, their offensive line got downgraded by PFF over the course of the offseason as well. Michael Gallup's there, no more Hunter Renfro, whatever. Honestly, this conversation is not that – this has not been a great, exciting conversation, and I wanted to believe. And we got to throw one more thing out there because, guys, Jacoby Myers was the fantasy wide receiver 24.
Starting point is 00:40:18 Like, he had – He was so awesome with Jimmy G. He was like – He had a grip of really good games. Sorry, you're just totally back out. I mean, he's just their Tyler Boyd. That's the category for me.
Starting point is 00:40:33 For Jacoby Myers. If you can't like Devontae, you can't like Jacoby. I don't like Devontae's ADP. That's the problem. Jacoby's just... Jacoby had a big difference. Once AOC took over and started, you know, Jimmy G went away.
Starting point is 00:40:50 What week was AOC? I don't know. You'll have to look that up. I don't have that off the top of my head. But what we saw is the targets really shifted away from Jacoby to Devontae Adams. I think that is like the one comforting piece of Devontae Adams. 62 for 705 was the numbers for those last nine weeks. That was his pace for Jacoby Myers.
Starting point is 00:41:17 Like 60 catches 700-something yards. Yeah, I mean, I like... And now you bring Brock Bowers into the equation yeah I like that the Raiders have a personality now you know they you you know they're going to be this hard fought run the ball play good defense uh I think they could beat their their Vegas win total but for fantasy purposes I just don't see a lot that I love here because when things are going to beat their ADPs, they're still not going to be league winners. What was the Steelers record last year?
Starting point is 00:41:51 Exactly. They were nine wins. Ten? Was it? No. Was it? Weren't they ten and seven? We just talked about this.
Starting point is 00:42:00 Or nine and eight? Ten and seven. Yeah, they're ten and seven. Oh, man. Did you enjoy starting any options there very often not really okay so that's what you're saying is maybe their yeah potential outcome uh the broncos eight and nine last year didn't really feel that way either uh they were five and four and one score games they had a projected win total of eight and a
Starting point is 00:42:23 half what do you think their projected win total is now? I'm aware. All right, Mike, have you looked yet? No. Let's go. So the Raiders were at six and a half. I'll go seven and a half. Five and a half.
Starting point is 00:42:38 Oh, they think they're worst. Well, they don't have Russ anymore. And so the quarterback position is in flux. It's a tough situation trying to compete in this division. Eighth hardest strength to schedule, according to Warren Sharp. Last year, they were one of the slower teams in the league. 17th in points per game. They've still got to pay for Russ.
Starting point is 00:43:05 I think he's got 19% of their cap this year is going to a player not on the team, which just makes it hard to— 19%? Yeah. Someone can check my math. That's what I believe is true. 67 million in total dead cap in 2024, the most in the NFL. And so it's one of those things where it's like,
Starting point is 00:43:24 you know where that hits you the most in the NFL and so it's one of those um one of those things where it's like you know where that hits you the most it hits you with kind of your your offensive lineman depth and you're you know you're just not you're not you're not signing guys to have the same level suddenly Jair Stidham's atop your depth chart you know what I mean right who is um clearly the quarterback too right now is that the latest well it latest? You're saying with Bo Nix? Yeah, with Bo Nix. It's just Zach Wilson was terrible. He got to the team and all the reports were like...
Starting point is 00:43:53 Oh, you're talking about Zach Wilson. But what about in the... We're looking at J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota. We're looking at Drake May in New England. Bo Nix is forgotten about. And where is the Stidham versus Nix competition going to be over the next few weeks? I was reading a lot on this.
Starting point is 00:44:12 Stidham had the best camp so far. So he was – Yeah, that's what I was curious about. And nothing was bad about Bo Nix. Stidham obviously has an extra year in this offense, so he should kind of have a leg up. Stidham and Nix. But they drafted Bo Nix. be their future in the first round,
Starting point is 00:44:31 and unlike someone like J.J. McCarthy, who wasn't even doing offensive line protections and has a handful of starts and is very young, Bo Nix is 24 years old. He started an NCAA record 60 games. Like if this guy can't come in and start week one, what are you doing? Well, but that could be detrimental to him. If you're projected to win five and a half games, that would be maybe the worst thing you could do to him is have him be the guy that brings you five and a half games versus giving him some time. Yeah, I mean, perhaps, but I do think that Bo Nix will be starting week one.
Starting point is 00:45:05 The expectation for most of the beat reporters is that he will be the week one starter, and we just don't know how long it's going to go into training camp, into preseason before that's named. You can't go from Nix to Stidham. You can go from Stidham to Nix. So I'm going to cast my lot in that side of where they start. It might be two or three weeks. They're going to lose some ballgames.
Starting point is 00:45:25 Yeah. But we'll know a lot in camp here soon. I just feel like Sean Payton's really going to want to install his guy as soon as possible and get him up to speed. He believes in him. And I love Bo Nix. I'm so fascinated to see if it will work in the NFL because he's not the toolsy guy.
Starting point is 00:45:46 He's not the rocket arm. You just got a feeling about him? A lot of stuff made about him. In your haunches? Deep in my haunches. Was he the most accurate QB last year? Yeah, he set the NCAA record with 77.4% completion rate. Fun fact, 100% of his passes were behind the line. or the NCAA record was 77.4% completion rate. Now, he did throw –
Starting point is 00:46:05 Fun fact, 100% of his passes were behind the line. Yeah, I was going to say he did throw a lot of screens, RPOs. So there's people saying, oh, it's just the system. But still, 77% is pretty good. I've seen quarterbacks run a system where they're not allowed to throw the ball down the field and they still can't complete passes. Yeah, I just – it it'll be very interesting year they struggled so much last year their defense struggled immensely don't forget the 70 point week when they gave up
Starting point is 00:46:35 more points to what hn and most that you've ever seen in your entire life that was that was a fun time it kind of saturated their entire numbers for the year. It did because if you look at the end of the season, what their defense gave up, they gave up 27 points. They gave up 9 points. They gave up 7 points. They started locking it down a little bit towards the
Starting point is 00:46:57 end. Now, we haven't even talked about the running back room or the wide receiver room, both which have huge question marks. Javante Williams, final year of his contract, struggled last year. Career low, 3.8 yards per touch. Was tough to watch play football. Julio McLaughlin,
Starting point is 00:47:14 electric, had the receptions. They also had a ton of receptions because Russ either threw it way down the field or he dumped it down to either McLaughlin or Javante or Samaj P. Ryan. I mean, that does seem to be Peyton's system. Sure.
Starting point is 00:47:30 And Bo Nix's system. Yeah. So it's a very difficult backfield to navigate. ADP-wise, people are not taking huge chances on this. Javante is the highest in the back of the eighth, the running back 29. But there are a lot. So you have Javante, you have McLaughlin. Pirine is still there.
Starting point is 00:47:51 Oh, he caught 50 passes. He's not going to be gone. They like Pirine more. They like him more than we like him, by a lot. Then they drafted Audrick Estime in day three of the draft who's more of a big body, like would take early down maybe goal line work should he work in.
Starting point is 00:48:11 But it's like – I think I don't want a piece of it. That's the problem is I don't think anyone wants a piece of it. And I don't know if there's value. This is a backfield I think you should throw a dart or two at. Like in the back of the eighth, so like the early ninth. I mean, everything I have had this offseason has been against Javante Williams. That's the only dart I'd throw. It's not impossible.
Starting point is 00:48:35 Another year returned from the ACL was awful, but he still currently has the job, which is a huge step in the year two recovery. Just walk through the logic of these four players. Williams is the only one worth taking the shot at. If you take a shot on him and he's back, then you have a great player. If you take a shot on McLaughlin, committee. Estimate, committee. Pirine, committee.
Starting point is 00:48:59 Those guys are not going to – there's no world where McLaughlin takes over a five-win team, a six-win team, and you're happy you have him every single week. That's my opinion. No, I think you are correct that the other guys would only be massive committee timeshare type of pieces.
Starting point is 00:49:18 The only way that it works out for one of the other guys is Jahlil McLaughlin. If he were to become the pass-catching back and have more of a James White-esque type of season because they're down and they've got to dump the ball down and he's catching four or five balls a game, that can work for fantasy.
Starting point is 00:49:36 It's just hard with Pirine catching 50, thinking he's not going to be that role. Yeah, I mean, Pirine... Well, we'll see because, I mean, if you look up Samaj P. Ryan and just news, basically every single article is potential cap casualty. So we'll see if he's on the roster. Thanks, Russ. You know who's still on the roster?
Starting point is 00:49:57 Cortland Sutton plays football for the Broncos. He's a wide receiver. Maybe you've heard of him. You know who's still on the roster? Tim Patrick. Yeah, fireball. He's a wide receiver. Maybe you've heard of him. You know who's still on the roster? Tim Patrick. Yeah, Fireball. He's a wide receiver. Maybe you've heard of him.
Starting point is 00:50:07 Do we need to call him something different this year to protect him? Because two years of Fireball Jones did not end well. Do we need to do the inverse nickname? When someone's real big, so you call them Lil? So do we need to call him something? Something boring? Yeah, or just like- Like Paul Perkins?
Starting point is 00:50:30 What are you talking about, Lil Tim? Yeah, Lil Tim or like Brittle Bones Jones. Oh, gosh. He said he's got a new number, 12. This is a new me. Tim. Oh, Timmy. We call him Timmy.
Starting point is 00:50:43 Oh, Timmy Patrick. Timmy Patrick. Okay, let's go get him let's keep him healthy timmy just tim wait little timmy isn't that the guy from lassie no no that's uh christmas carol christmas carol with the crutch oh now it fits even better so i just in case this audio lassie tiny lassie reference from al tiny tim if this ever gets to tim patrick we're this is for you yeah yeah yeah yeah this is this is your fireball jones on the show we want you to succeed so so tiny tim patrick to me the emerging upside player is marvinims in this offense.
Starting point is 00:51:29 Cortland Sutton survived on the touchdown numbers, which, Jason, you've said it many times. That is not an easy stat to produce as a rookie. Yeah, not only is that not going to come his way from Bo Nix, but he was the wide receiver 35 with double-digit touchdowns. Like, woof. I mean, if you have double-digit touchdowns, how are you not a wide receiver one? How are you not a wide receiver two?
Starting point is 00:51:54 Cortland said, let me show you. Yeah, he did. So, no more Jerry Judy, Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin, Josh Reynolds, Tim Patrick. Reynolds and Patrick will play way more football than you want them to. Yes, they will. And Mims and Franklin will play a lot. And so why are we talking more happy things?
Starting point is 00:52:13 I am actually happily hopeful that Troy Franklin is installed because Troy Franklin was the wide receiver for Bo Nix. So when Bo Nix is coming along, there's hope there. Oh, and he'll be a wide receiver for this year. I see what you're saying. He is a fourth-round pick, pick 102. They traded up 19 spots to get him. But if you're drafted in day three, I mean, it pretty much doesn't hit.
Starting point is 00:52:39 Four percent, four percent of all day three wide receivers drafted hit 10 fantasy points per game in their rookie season. So the odds are way against Troy Franklin. But they don't know how to sit on the Knicks to throw them the ball. Right. But I – I would put a lot of money on Mims over Franklin.
Starting point is 00:52:57 Like I'd do that bet, that's for sure. Just Mims versus Franklin? Oh, yeah. For this year? Oh, yeah. Let's do it, baby. Can we make that $100? Water bet. Yes. Alright, $100
Starting point is 00:53:08 bet because I want the free money. You guys are disgusting. It's Franklin. Also, shame on you Mike for not hitting that. It's Franklin. He had to wait three rounds to hit the button. Greg
Starting point is 00:53:24 Dulcich, Adam Choutman, do we care? Greg Dulcich, probably not because he is always injured, but he has the traits that you want in a breakout title. Adam Troutman, no. Seattle, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and New York to open the year, three or four games on the road. That seems like a troubling stretch of four games. If I'm honest in Seattle,
Starting point is 00:53:48 then Pittsburgh, then at Tampa, then at New York, I guess that's why five and a half wins is the projected total. Let's take a break. Do you think that helps sit them start? Yeah, I do.
Starting point is 00:53:59 I think it'll be a sit-em start and a Knicks finish, but let's take a break. Come back with the Chargers. The Chargers. It fell apart last year. Five and 12 after being projected for almost 10 wins. Three and eight in one score games, the Chargers have a way of just crushing your soul.
Starting point is 00:54:32 For a few years, yeah. Yeah, I mean, what is this? Since 2015, they're 37 and 58 in one score games. That's a 38% win rate. What is their projected win total this year, boys? Nine and a half? You didn't know that already? No, I didn't. Yeah, year boys nine and a half you didn't know that already no i didn't yes nine and a half oh man second easiest strength of schedule in football that helps including uh las vegas carolina pittsburgh kansas city to start the year um it's hard to talk about last year's Chargers in the context of expectations.
Starting point is 00:55:07 Yeah, they dealt with an insane amount of injuries across the board. Obviously, they lost Mike Williams early. They lost Keenan Allen late. They lost their main quarterback halfway through the season, towards the end of the season. This was just a colossal failure of a season, but it wasn't long ago, you know, that Justin Herbert was thought of as the, you know, the next Patrick Mahomes, the best quarterback. And the fact that you've got him there, you've got a winning proven head coach
Starting point is 00:55:40 building their system here. They're going to run the the ball they're going to play defense the way that justin herbert hasn't had yet i mean obviously the the vegas win total here is where it's at because they think it's going to work it does to me and correct me if you feel differently but it feels like a process over player situation in some regards going into this season. Yeah. Where the wide receiver room, it's very fluid in terms of who's going to contribute, how often they'll get to contribute. The running back room, it's retreads. I mean, it is. It's players that have had opportunities that have been hurt.
Starting point is 00:56:18 Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins. They even said, you know what? Let's bring this guy in. Woo-hoo! Don't go anywhere, Big Will Disley. Big Montana goes Hollywood. Oh, nice. We got to update that drop.
Starting point is 00:56:39 The video drop. We need a camera crew following him around. Will Disley? Yeah. Well, you know, because of Hollywood. Yeah. So, to me, it's the process is what brings people to the place where they're like, hey, this team is going to do things the right way
Starting point is 00:56:56 and they're in a division with, what, six-and-a-half projected Raiders, five-and-a-half projected Raiders, five and a half projected Broncos, looking like they could be the one team to make a run towards Kansas City. And that trust right now has to be in the coach, in the quarterback, right? Yeah. That's where it's coming from. In the OC. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:57:18 And Greg Roman. You got to factor in Giro. Yeah. He's averaged 10 plus wins per year. It's so wild. How can a guy have that much success and just be still kind of floating around? They have the most total vacated targets, 395 of any team over the last five years. Let's not forget, it's not just Keenan and Mike Williams departing in their wide receiver room.
Starting point is 00:57:43 Right. It's Austin Eckler, who's been their number one target. It's their number oneenan and Mike Williams departing in their wide receiver room. It's Austin Eckler who's been their number one target. It's their number one tight end, Gerald Everett. It's their number three wide receiver, Jalen Guyton. They're all gone. This is a new team. It is a completely new team. Ladd McConkie, rookie wide receiver coming into
Starting point is 00:57:56 the most total vacated targets in football. Joshua Palmer's going to have an opportunity. DJ Chark's going to have an opportunity, and we'll see if Quentin Johnston can get it together. Quentin Johnston, I mean, he will have the opportunity. He will never look back at the retirement home, you know, 40 years from now and say, they didn't give me a shot. No, no, no.
Starting point is 00:58:19 It will never be like the guy that's stuck at the bottom of the depth chart. Like, you're at the top. We didn't want you there. He's going to be on the guy that's stuck at the bottom of the depth chart. Like, you're at the top. We didn't want you there. He's going to be on the field and have the opportunity, still with a great quarterback. What he showed on the field rookie year was very, very, very disappointing. Andy, I know you've gone back. You've watched all of his plays.
Starting point is 00:58:37 Yeah, I put one of those devices on. Yeah, where you hold your eyes open. Sockwork orange. But doing that, I believe, if my memory serves, you came out a little bit more optimistic for Quentin Johnston's future. Well, yeah, I mean, everything surrounding the storyline of Quentin Johnston is just the basement. It's dumpster on fire discussions, and that's not the reality.
Starting point is 00:58:59 It was a mistake. Tons of mistakes, but you still had plays after the catch you still had um some you know big time receptions it's just a matter of can he become a consistent contributor because the patience level of this head coach if you can't do it that's why they brought dj charke in because you can put him right in the lineup and you're going to get a professional wide receiver so since 2014 first round rookie wide receivers who finished that first year with no top 24 finishes yeah let's hear this great list josh dachshund which boston to be fair he got hurt for a lot of it uh laquan
Starting point is 00:59:37 treadwell boston mike williams all right there we go. John Ross. Boston. Nikhil Harry. Boston. Jalen Rager. Boston. Yeah. Oh, man. Yeah. Well, that's not good. As a first-round rookie, he really had no top 24 games. You got to just luck into one.
Starting point is 01:00:00 You're the number one wide receiver. Lost his quarterback. Lost his, what's the sticky stuff they put on the gloves? Stick them? Yeah, lost that stuff too. Yeah, I mean, he had two touchdowns on the entire course of the season. He played 65% of their snaps. This is why you like Ladd-McConkie,
Starting point is 01:00:20 because the confidence levels in the other options are not high, and none of them, like, they don't profile as high-volume wide receivers even when they succeed. Like, Chark's not going to be high-volume, right? No, big play. Joshua Palmer probably – I mean, he could be a 6-8 guy if he's having a good season. Johnston, I think he could be high-volume if they use him the right way.
Starting point is 01:00:42 But McConkie profiles as the target monster. Yeah, Ladd McConkie is very intriguing of can he be Keenan Allen light and his tape at Georgia, he looks like that pro who finds the spot, gets the mojo working with the quarterback. The quarterback knows this wide receiver is going to find the soft spot in the zone and give me a wide open target, and he's going to run good routes. The practices that were open to media early on that have already taken place, it's been reported that he was clearly the number one target for Justin Herbert
Starting point is 01:01:23 at most of those practices. So the fact that I like the player, I like the opportunity, I like the quarterback, and he's completely necessary as a day-two drafted wide receiver, I'm in on that. He could be – I think you should know quickly. Yeah. With Vlad Mikhalki, I think you'll know very fast. And he very well might have a capped ceiling as a slot possession receiver
Starting point is 01:01:46 that just is good and has a place for fantasy but is never going to win you a championship. But he showed a lot on film that made me go, he could be the type of guy that gets 150 targets and catches 120 of them. All right, any other thoughts on this offense? What about Herbert? Give me the fact that he is QB 16. I put out our list of top 10 according to the UDK, Mike,
Starting point is 01:02:16 and I asked who's missing, and Herbert was the number one answer. Yeah, it's hard to see a world where he bounces back. And you're like, elite fantasy football Justin Herbert is back. That's difficult. But QB 16, it feels like if you are – if you're punting your quarterback, you're in on – you're like Goff's opening schedule because it's super nice. Leaving the draft with two late-round quarterbacks and one of them being Justin Herbert.
Starting point is 01:02:49 He finished as QB2. Am I remembering that right? I believe that is right. If you have the number. Again, I don't think he's going to make it to QB2. Not last year, by the way. No, no, no, no. Once upon a time.
Starting point is 01:03:01 He has the talent and the abilities to be that type of a guy. Maybe he goes – he has like a Brock Purdy type of a season where, yeah, the volume is incredibly low, but it just ends up being incredibly efficient throwing touchdowns. Or like Lamar's MVP season. That's not a high-volume throwing, but you are hitting on your high-value plays. The Gus bus is profiling as the starter right now. Gus Edwards, go ahead and hit that drop.
Starting point is 01:03:35 Thank you. Number one, fantasy football running back from week 7 through 11 last year. He had 12 catches last year, which was a career high. This is not Austin Eckler. In fact, when he was with Greg Roman in 2022, he had two snaps on third down. And even out of camp, you're hearing, Gus, he'll be the starter.
Starting point is 01:04:00 If J.K. Dobbins is healthy, he could have the inside track on third down. And yet,bins is healthy, he could have the inside track on third down. And yet this is weird because you're going into this season with an offense that we know wants to run the football, but with an older running back leading the way. Since 2000, only 16% of top 24 running back seasons came from RBs above the age of 29. That's not surprising.
Starting point is 01:04:26 No, it's not surprising. Because there's very few that get that opportunity. But what is surprising is that those who get the opportunity are usually much, they have much bigger, greater careers than Gus Edwards. He's like old and hasn't really been a sensational, you know, he's not Adrian Peterson making it to 30 at the running back position. So it's really tough to be like, well, who do you want here? Who's Gus?
Starting point is 01:04:49 Who do you draft? Because there should be value here. If they're going to win nine and a half games, they're going to score a lot of touchdowns. And that's probably Gus Edwards. I think it would surprise people that last year was his most prolific in every way, shape, and form. From an opportunity perspective, carries,
Starting point is 01:05:05 obviously had the wicked touchdown totals. Last year was Gus's best year, and they brought him over immediately. So he missed all of 2021. We were excited about him going into that year. Comes back, hurt, didn't play a whole season. Last year was the running back 20 in fantasy. But he's not going to catch passes. Yeah, correct.
Starting point is 01:05:28 And the historical evidence we have for it, like the Jim Harbaugh years in San Francisco, it was all Frank Gore. Those four years of 2011 to 2014, it was Frank Gore averaging like 260-plus attempts where the backup. So in 2011, Kendall Hunter had 112 carries. Haven't heard that name in a while.
Starting point is 01:05:53 The next year, Kendall Hunter was second. He had 72 carries, then 78, and then he was replaced by Carlos Hyde as a rookie. Hyde only had 83 carries. Is there a world, Gus, you should take him at a two-round discount over Zemir White? Yes. Yeah, I think so.
Starting point is 01:06:13 I think that if you're in – it's difficult if you play in like, say you're a one-league player. That's a little more difficult. But all these late-round starting running backs, I want them in at least one league. Roman's running backs have averaged 13.7 combined rushing touchdowns over his 10 years as an offensive coordinator. And when you get to the goal line, it's going to be Gus Edwards.
Starting point is 01:06:42 Yeah. All right, division. Break it down for me. Top to bottom. Chiefs. Don't copy me. Hello. I'm going Chiefs, Chargers, Vikings.
Starting point is 01:06:58 Vikings? Wow. Vegas. That is a surprise pick. I really want to. I'm out on the next two. I'm out of here. I will take Vegas and then the Broncos.
Starting point is 01:07:10 I got the same thing. I will go Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders. All right. In between the AFC and the NFC, we're going to take a break, do a mock draft episode on Thursday. So do not miss it. Again, three shows a week right now. The Fantasy Footballers throughout July, Tuesday, Thursday,
Starting point is 01:07:30 Saturday. In August, boys, it'll be five days a week. Let's go. And the season will be here so soon. YouTube.com slash The Fantasy Footballers. Check out the draft kit. UltimateDraftKit.com, the number one tool to get you ready for draft day, help you dominate your draft. Goodbye, everybody. Thank you for tuning tuning in don't miss the mock draft on thursday we will
Starting point is 01:07:50 see you then stay safe all the best players goodbye thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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