Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Busts & Values + Fantasy Fisticuffs - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/23

Episode Date: August 23, 2023

Which players are being over and undervalued in 2023 fantasy football drafts? Busts and values on today’s fantasy football podcast! Find out who Andy, Mike, and Jason are avoiding! Plus, the latest NFL News and more. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for August 23rd, 2023. Dive into the 2023 Ultimate Draft Kit + Draft Analyzer! UltimateDraftKit.com Compete in the largest fantasy football league! Megalabowl.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on Twitter Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Check out today's sponsors: News & Notes presented by USAA. Visit https://USAA.com/Insurance Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Here's your opportunity to play in the biggest, largest fantasy football tournament in the known universe and all the parallel universes. Head over to megalobull.com right now to find out how you get in. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Welcome into the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Jason Moore, Mike Wright,em, Andy Holloway. Great show for you today.

Excited to have you with us. Oh, it's spicy. If you're a fan of watching us agree with one another, this is not the show for you today. Some polar opposite opinions shall be shared. Just some dumb ones. You know, just wrong ones. I completely agree. Yeah.

As do I. I will highlight which ones to obey. We are sharing. This is not like a show built around disagreeing with one another. It is the bust bus and values episode, but the bus picks and the value picks that we have selected will provoke, dare I say, some fisticuffs on the show today. Yeah,

this is not unanimous agreement. So we will make our cases and then should they be disagreed with, you will hear the counter argument. And the judge isn't here today to even declare a ruling so this is going to the jury i will play i will play judge i'll step in i will do it for i'm not sure that's how the legal system should work where one side of the argument plaintiff also what do you decide yeah that i think i know what they decide like if the judge is running behind if the judge is late at all it's just whoever calls it yeah whoever gets to the front first

and puts a wig on um busting values today nfl news to talk about a good quick question so a jam-packed fantasy football show if you're joining us for the first time, welcome into the Fantasy Footballers. This show is about equipping you to win at every facet of fantasy football, whether you're new to the game, because I know there's a lot of people that have joined leagues for the first time, whether you're an experienced player that needs an edge. Our goal is to equip you with all the information that you could possibly need so that you can make decisions based on your league, the dynamics of your league context, and be better every single week. That's the whole point.

That's why we have differing views. You can decide whether to go with the wrong one in Mike or the right one. In me. Yeah, in Jason. There you go. But that's the point of this show. We're with you all year round. We're a year-round podcast, and we're every day of the week from now through the end of the season.

So you're going to have new content every day. Just refresh that phone. The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now at ultimatedraftkit.com. It has all of our player projections. So we have stat projections for every single player updated daily. It's got our sleepers, breakouts,outs busts and values that we do agree on those are our consensus uh it's got the draft analyzer which lets you import your team and then see what we think of it and where you can improve and give you a game plan for going into the season it's got a hundred plus player profile videos where we kind of break down and talk about these players. That's great toilet time watching where you can actually know our

takes, our agreements, our disagreements on all these players. We've got blurbs, write-ups, injuries, every single thing that you need to make sure you're not making a dumb pick. You know, we talk about this all the time. Like, you don't win your championship at the draft, but you can it you're building a foundation so stick with us through the season build a good foundation with the ultimate draft kit and let's get championships this year absolutely so that's ultimate draft kit.com and then mike said it at the top but the megalobole is open right now that's our uh largest ever tournament megalobole.com for all the details you You can go, enter. It's going to be a blast this year. I am in it. Jason. Yeah.

Jason is in it. Yeah. We're playing, Mike. You're going to get in. I will never tell. Mike might be in it. I'm a gentleman. I don't draft and tell.

Doesn't draft and tell. Also, the winner plays against us in the Listener League next year, no matter what. Shout out to Reverb, last year's winner. Oh, my goodness. Who is playing against us this year in the Listener League next year no matter what. Shout out to Reverb, last year's winner. Oh, my goodness. Who is playing against us this year in the Listener League. All right, Instagram, quick question of the day. It comes from Zipkicker.

So not sure his feeling on actual kickers, but seems positive. How much weight do you put on yardage bonuses? So you have leagues that have like one point for a 40-plus yard play, for example. What are your thoughts on yardage bonuses so you have leagues that have like one point for a 40 plus yard play for example what are your thoughts on yardage bonuses yardage bonuses are awesome they are super fun they give you a little bit of we are two in our league of record we are two points for a 40 yard rush rushing touchdown uh passing touchdown, and receiving touchdown. Awesome is your vote. Judge Moore. Yeah, awesome is a lot of fun.

A two-point bonus for like a 40-plus yard touchdown. And this is just coincidental timing. I didn't even know that this was the connection, but that is the scoring we have in the Megalobowl as well. There are bonuses for 40-plus yard touchdowns. You didn't know the scoring format in our largest tournament no i knew i made the scoring format i didn't know that this was the quick question oh i'm sorry that it relates to that but um it's a good question of like you know you're you're going to get uh more explosive plays out of you know the the old school deshaun jackson's now you

know a tyler lockett that you assume is going to catch a bomb touchdown or a Jamar Chase. And I factor it in, absolutely not at all. I have never once made a draft pick thinking, you know, I might get two extra points one of those weeks because he's explosive. I am, of course, trying to focus on explosive players. So it automatically goes together. Like, if you're trying to focus on explosive players, younger athletes, those are the ones usually more inclined to break away for 40, 50, 60 yards. There's only a handful of players that are on some level of, like,

you can count on those plays. Like Tyreek Hill is the name that kind of comes to mind in that regard. But I'm not deciding on Tyreek Hill over, you know, I guess just Jefferson has big plays too, but over like a Cooper Cup, just because I think it'll be more bonus points. I just think it's fun for fantasy. Yeah, I'm in full agreement.

All right, let's get into the news news and notes from around the league presented by usaa insurance yeah davante adams had a ton of those last year that's for sure he would just disappear in the secondary. And he will not this year. Yeah, he will because he's great. He'll be fine. I am not saying he's going to have a bad season. I think he's going to be awesome, 170 targets.

I just think they're going to be closer to the line of scrimmage with Jimmy Garoppolo. Nope. Okay. The judge ruled. I'm the judge. As the defendant, I am the judge. News for the fantasy football world. Ian Rappaport saying the MRI revealed no significant injury to Terry McLaurin.

There's optimism for week one. Okay, okay. That also means that he could not be available week one. It's going to be down to the wire, but that's good news. Yes, we were holding out some optimism, expecting expecting the worst but we got some good news I still do believe that there will be some ramifications early in the season even if he's there week one to push off to kick off to get off the line of scrimmage properly it's going to you know he's not going to be at 100 percent Jackson Smith and Jigba slight fracture fracture in his wrist. Seeing a specialist.

Has not had surgery yet. Oh, really? Yeah, so that was misreported yesterday. But it's not looking good for week one, for Jackson Smith and Jigba. No, it's less than three weeks until week one. The timeline that was being thrown around there optimistically was three to four weeks. I think that that is not a timeline we should be banking on. Sometimes these fractures could take six weeks. The point is you're not going to have him the first, you're not going to start him, I don't believe, the first three weeks of the season. That's how I view it. So when you draft him, you need to know he is not a starter

week one, but I'm absolutely fine with that still maybe there are other players around where he was going that you're like well now knowing I can't possibly start him in the first three weeks I'll select you know player x but um I'm still fine grabbing him for the second half of the season yeah you get to put him on your ir which is nice and then I'll be the I'll be the dark cloud of doom just doom because we have to look forward. Again, this is just complete speculation, but looking at the timeline of the injury, if it's going to go longer than we think,

the Seattle Seahawks are on bye in week five. You can put a player on IR and have them miss four games in return. That timeline is pretty nice for Seattle should they choose to go with that method. I'm not saying I have any inside information that this is going to happen, but it's something that you need to pay attention to. Hopefully we get some more news

over the next couple of days. All right, that was today's News & Notes presented, as always, by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Bus. I did forget that the graphic, Mike, here on YouTube for bus. I had looked down. Was it the Humpty Dumpty one?

It is the Humpty Dumpty, and you are the Humpty. I mean, I fell off the wall, and I had a great fall. What are you going to do about it? I'm going to try and knock you off the wall right now. I'm going to try my darnedest. You can't, because I am soaring through the atmosphere hand-in-hand with this man. This is identical to my conviction on the positive side for Mike Evans, is my conviction on the negative side for J.K. Dobbins, who is my bust here in the show,

which I stand alone because I looked at you guys' rankings. Yeah, you're the cheese. And you're both stinky, stinky cheese. You're both crazy people. We're too low on them. You're way too high on them. Oh, should we move them up, Jay? Probably, yeah.

I mean, I don't know if you both have him on one of your rosters together. I don't know if you both have him on one of your rosters together. I don't know if you have bets placed somewhere that is distorting your views. But J.K. Dobbins is unequivocally going to be a bust based on ADP this year. J.K. Dobbins, I will make the case every which way and see if I can persuade you at least to adjust him back a spot or two. This is a player through three years that has played in less than 50% of his game. So you have this overarching reality that J.K. Dobbins has not stayed healthy. This is a player who benefited from a run first system with Greg Roman. And I have been relentlessly pelted with the darts of

Todd Monken from both of you all off season. The optimism around the passing game, around a one tight end system, three wide. The relentless truth that Todd Monken is going to change how fast they play and how often they run the football. In his career, he has been extraordinarily touchdown dependent. J.K. Dobbins has had 14 of 23 games without a touchdown. So of the 23 games, remember, that's less than half of all the games he ever could have played because he's been hurt. In 14 of the 23, he's averaged six fantasy points per game

when he hasn't scored. So he doesn't catch passes. He averages less than one per game in his career. And here's a stat that I think will be eye-opening to you in a legitimate fashion in the three years that todd monken spent in tampa bay his running backs ranked 28th 30th and 32nd in fantasy points so you have a player in jk dobbins care to give me their names uh i do not have them in front of me well we'll pull those up. I'm assuming if they're not J.K. Dobbins, they couldn't have done well. But the truth is he doesn't catch passes.

And if he doesn't score, he doesn't produce. And that's in a historical system that has been extremely run friendly. The efficiency of J.K. Dobbins has been matched by the efficiency of Gus Edwards and most players that have played in that backfield. I'm not saying he's not talented. I haven't projected for 200 carries and 1,100 yards and six touchdowns. That's 29th in fantasy production because we've talked about how valuable a target is. Will he get every goal line? No, you got a quarterback who's going to steal opportunities around the red zone. In fact, here's another stat for you. Over the last five years, if you have a quarterback that rushes for

700 rushing yards, here's what the running back reception rank is for the team. 30th, 31st, 17th, 29th, 28th, 24th, 30th, 32nd, 20th. You don't finish in the top half of the league even in receiving opportunities so you have no statistical reason to believe jk dobbins who's not a receiver will somehow become a receiver in an offense that won't have receiving running backs justice hill great great camp preseason probably profiles as the third down back for this team, actually with the minimal opportunities in the passing game. I believe if you draft JK Dobbins where he's going, you're drafting Brian Robinson and you don't realize it. Because Brian Robinson is going to have a ton of opportunities

in an offense that is going to be a lot better. It's not the Baltimore Ravens. I think they're going to be a really good offense. I believe you. I'm basically saying I believe you about Todd Monk. But if JK.K. Dobbins doesn't score, he ain't going to catch the ball and he ain't going to make you happy because he's going to score about five, six, seven points. He's going to be Brian Robinson last year when he didn't score. So I somewhat agree with a lot of what you're saying. And I think that the big disagreement

is actually the touchdowns. You know, you talk about, well, what about when he doesn't score touchdowns? He's scored a lot of touchdowns. He's touchdown dependent. He's been really good at that skill, if you want to say. Now, that's not a sticky stat, but you've got him down for six touchdowns. I have him for nine touchdowns. We both have him for about, we're in the 1,100 yards. I only have him with 26 receptions.

So I don't think he's going to have a wild PPR season but I do think that when you look at this offense the scoring opportunities his history when he's been on the field this is a guy who could end up with 10-12 touchdowns and so if he ends up with the same stats you're saying but because it's a good offense with scoring opportunities he ends up with double digit touchdowns then it's going to be a great pick. I have a note that says there isn't a case for J.K. Dobbins to have a great season unless you give him 15 touchdowns on the ground. Because...

15's hyperbolic, but... Well, look, so is... If you project... You said this yourself. This is from your own lips. That's going to sound good. You didn't have a player projected as double-digit touchdowns in your projections at one point in time

because you said you had a hard time projecting that kind of a number for a player. So if the case for J.K. Dobbins, a player who's played less than 50% of his games, who scored in what? What's 23 minus 14? That's nine? He scored in nine games in his career.

So nine of 50 possible games he's scored. If the argument is, I think he'll score a bunch more touchdowns, at a minimum you have to admit that that is a leap for the player when I think that there are other players on the board that it's not such a leap to say they'll get there. So that is my case against J.K. Dobbins, is that you have to project something you have never seen in a pass-first offense, right?

We all admit this is going to be a different offense. It will. And so if this was Greg Roman and this was a player that, you know, he was 100% healthy and you knew that he was going to be the running back, I could say, all right, he's going to get to 10. He's going to get to 12. This is my case for the J.K. Dobbins bust. Now, you guys have him way ahead of ADP.

I have him way below ADP. And so maybe ADP is just right. Maybe that's the case in the argument here. But there you go. So that's my case for Dobbins. And I know that Mike and I, who often agree, are diametrically opposed here. I am more in the middle. I'm not as hot and bothered by Dobbins as Mike is.

Can I get you to ADP then not all the way not all the way to ADP I think I you know I'm looking at where I have Dobbins right now I've got him currently sitting at running back 14 that is ahead of ADP I am pretty comfortable with where it's at I mean there are some players behind him that I might take the gamble on a bigger opportunity. We're actually going to talk about another player here maybe right this second that I've got near him and behind him. So Mike, why don't you, unless you want to talk about J.K. Dobbins, why don't you bring up your bus pick? Sure. My couple notes for J.K. Dobbins Dobbins one pulled up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers which because it's it's a frightening stat when you say that but then you say it was Doug Martin

Jacques Rogers and Peyton Barber and your fears certainly subside a little bit that those guys didn't have success uh in Todd Monken's offense J.K. Dobbins as a rookie who started the first half of the year behind Mark Ingram played in 15 of 16 games he finished as the running back 21 that year that's one spot behind you were in your 30s back then Mike I was imagine definitely I definitely was uh but I'm saying I don't lean on rookie years three years ago I'm sorry he was a he wasn't even started till the second half and yeah he has missed a bunch of time due to one catastrophic injury. The injuries that he had last year, to me, are completely related to his recovery,

which is part of why the Javante Williams recovery is absolutely just so insane to me. But Dobbins, while there are the fears, Lamar Jackson is a mobile quarterback, and mobile quarterbacks simply do not check the ball down to J.K. Dobbins, while there are the fears, Lamar Jackson is a mobile quarterback, and mobile quarterbacks simply do not check the ball down to J.K. Dobbins, or I'm sorry, to running backs. But Dobbins, in his collegiate career, like in his profile, he caught over 20 passes a year as a college player. It's been too long. It's been way too long.

The point is he can do it, and I think that he receives a stronger opportunity this year to catch passes. He had seven catches last year. Yeah, well, how many games did he appear in? Eight games. Yeah, that was rough. He had 18 as a rookie. Yeah.

So let's get – Look, 18. I'll give you 18 catches. I just feel like you made such – I want him to get up to 30. You made such a strong argument against a so much more proven player in Jonathan Taylor. I mean, the case against Jonathan Taylor was made profoundly. And he's won fantasy leagues as the number one overall player and has caught the ball a bunch.

So that would be just my vehement. Yeah, he costs a lot more, though. I mean, we're not telling people draft J.K. Dobbins way ahead of ADP. We're saying at ADP we think he can beat his... We think he can beat his... I mean, I'm not ever taking J.K. Dobbins as the 14th running back

off the board. Am I wrong that Mike has him ranked ahead of Jonathan Taylor? That could be true. Which I guess is based on on maybe more the uh situation for jonathan taylor yeah jonathan taylor has more red flags than the red flags you're bringing up for dobbins and to me yeah dobbins you do not though you do not i want to give you a fair it's 11 it's 11 and 12 okay so you got them back to back uh None of us have gone that far, although Jonathan Taylor's situation, which has no resolution,

which Josh Jacobs has no resolution either. I mean, the optimism around Jacobs, I've been around the block enough to know that unless I see a real thing produce itself, both of those players are scary draft picks right now, personally. Certainly, and I will say there will be more pro propaganda for J.K. Dobbins later on. Oh, I know. Stay tuned, everybody.

But I'll jump in with my bust pick because I hate the ADP for this player. My ranking is – it might be a little too rough, a little too savage, but I do not like the ADP of Travis Etienne, the running back of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He is also a player, if you want to knock people for missing time, he missed an entire season. He missed his entire rookie campaign. Last year, he finished off as the running back 17, and we all remember the middle of the season when it looked like, holy crap, Travis Etienne is in fact the next best thing at the running back position. He's getting all the snaps. He's ripping off 40 plus yard runs

every single week. But look at the entire picture of what the Jacksonville Jaguars have done, including last year. James Robinson coming off the Achilles injury was the guy. And I know ETN was coming off of his own injury, but the fact that James Robinson off an Achilles still held off Travis ETN as the starter for the first month of the season, I don't know, that's a little bit of a red flag for me. And Robinson was coming through with some big-time fantasy performances, even though it did not look great for James

Robinson on the ground. Eventually, they trade him away. From Week 10 on for Travis Etienne, he was the running back 34. Five games outside of the top 24. Concerns in passing work? Is Travis Etienne a pass-catching bag? It is, I think, one of the great mysteries of fantasy football because he did it in college

with Travis Etienne. As a senior, 48 receptions with over 12 yards of catch. That's ridiculous. Then Urban Meyer, who is the coach and the caller for that team, they draft him in the first round

and immediately Urban Meyer says, well, Travis Etienne's going to be our satellite back. And you're like, what is going on here? I think the truth is with players like that, it is about will they be in this offense, right? Because his numbers last year as a receiving back, they were like Josh Jacobs' numbers the first two seasons, Josh Jacobs' career.

I think the capability is there the question that we have to answer is are they going to utilize him in that way right with all the weapons that they have because they did not only 14 of trevor lawrence's targets went to running backs that was the second lowest in the nfl in fact that tied jalen hurts if you don't like jalen hurts checking the ball down trevor Trevor Lawrence wasn't doing it either. And this is an old quote, but to be fair, it still haunts my dreams. This is a quote from Travis Etienne when he's talking about catching the ball. I feel nervous, I guess, because the ball is coming and I always feel like the defender's right there. So I run before I catch the ball and I get spooked by my surroundings.

Now he had tremendous success in college when he said this, but it's still like, are we sure this guy is really someone that the team wants to count on as a pass-catching running back? And last year, near the goal line, these have been documented, 14 carries inside the five, only three rushing touchdowns. And, yes, I did see the – Did you go watch them all? I did watch every single snap. There was a really good thread highlighting Travis Etienne at the

goal line where some of it's his fault, some of it's the offensive line fault, some of it's someone else. It's not all Travis Etienne's fault, but in the NFL, coaches don't necessarily care.

Kenneth Walker was inefficient at the goal line. What'd they do? They drafted a big bruiser in the second round. Travis Etienne was inefficient by the goal line. What'd they do? They drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round, who is also a very versatile running back. And coach Doug Peterson has said, I don't want to overload tank early, but I'm going to see his role expand as the season progresses. And I think that Tank Bigsby is a very, very good player. A day two draft capital on a running back is still a big deal. So I just think that if the receptions are where they were last year,

if ETN is splitting goal line work, he's not going to come through at his running back 13 ADP. I'm not saying that. 13 is very high. ETN can still finish as a top 24 running back. I don't think that's a wild thing to say, even though I have him slightly. Did you see Peterson say you wanted him to have 1,600, 1,700 rushing yards? Yeah, but that's nonsense.

Who doesn't want that? Yeah, I would love my all. I would love Tank Bigsby, my other running back, to also have 1,700 rushing yards. It matters to me if the if the coach is saying that he's going to have that kind of workload to sustain that yeah but again this is following the actions of the team not the the flapping lips of the coach which those things have gotten people in trouble many many times um like we all remember i'm going to give uh

buffalo the uh the buffalo running back his name is escaping me right now cj remember, I'm going to give, uh, Buffalo the, uh, the Buffalo running back. His name is escaping me right now. CJ Spiller. I'm going to give CJ Spiller the ball until he pukes. That turned into like 10 opportunities of game. So we can't always follow what they say, follow what they're actually doing. So I just, I am concerned about Travis Etienne as the running back 13. We all have them below ADP for what it's worth.

I'm at 16, Jason at 18, Mike at 26. He's going on sleeper at 308. He is more reasonable in underdog in a best ball format at 405. And then ESPN is the same as sleeper. So he is being invested in. I think it's because of the youth. I think it's because of the explosive ability. I think it's because this is a running back for a winning football team that

should take the division or has a chance to take the division to compete for it, which is something you invest in, but the, uh, it's all baked in, right? It's all built into the draft price and you,

there is a case for it not happening, which could cost you at, if you spend up on it. And on top of that, Doug Peterson in Philadelphia was an absolute nightmare for running backs for fantasy football. You never knew who it was going to be because his committee was so strong. Yeah, this is one of those things we're going to leave the season saying we need to remember and learn a lesson here because

Kenneth Walker, Travis ET, and these are guys where it's like, do you draft the young, super explosive, already proven on the NFL field talent? Because of course you should. And they're going to be great because they are great. Or when they bring in competition who can eat away at valuable fantasy touches, did that ruin them? Like, I think we're going to learn a big lesson here with these two guys. I agree.

Back with Jason's bust. His stupid bust in a minute. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters.

Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. Alright, back with my stupid dum-dum bust, according to Andy. I wish I had a drop for that. Andy tells me before the show, he's actively targeting this player that I think is going to not produce where he is being drafted right now, which is the wide receiver 20 on sleeper.

We're talking about DeAndre Hopkins, superstar wide receiver over the course of his career. Now the wide receiver one for the Tennessee Titans. He was traded to the Titans. Actually, he was cut and signed with the Titans at 31 years of age. So he is an older player changing teams. That's not necessarily best, but he still looked great last year. Last year, Hopkins averaged 10.7 targets per game. And in Arizona, he really lived off pure volume for fantasy. He was good when he played. Obviously, he had the suspension to start the year, but he was a volume machine averaging over 10 targets a game.

In 2023, at 31 years of age, that ain't happening. It's not happening when you play for the Tennessee Derrick Henrys. This is not a team that is going to have enough passing volume to make DeAndre Hopkins really the dude. I mean, we have Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee starting exactly 55 games. And in those games, he's averaged 29.5 passing attempts per game. And his wide receiver one has been nowhere near 10.7. And you go, well, yeah, but he didn't have DeAndre Hopkins. He had A.J. freaking Brown.

Like, A.J. Brown obviously can be used in a volume way. He just was for the Philadelphia Eagles. But A.J. Brown, a young, explosive athlete, was 7.6 targets per game, eight targets per game, valuable targets deep down the field where he'd break a tackle and have amazing yards after the catch. I just don't think that a young A.J. Brown can, you know, that an old DeAndre Hopkins could do what a young A.J. Brown can do. He's not going to have the volume.

And, you know, I just brought up on the the tips and tricks episode when we were talking about wide receiver won't um well like we yeah we please leave me out of that we were talking about that great no we weren't um anyways the point was when you look at bottom five teams and pass rate over expectation of which tennessee has been and projects to continue to be, their corresponding wide receiver one during that time averages 95 targets, 10 fantasy points a game, and finishes as the wide receiver 35. Now, that's the average. DeAndre Hopkins is above average. He will beat wide receiver 35. I'm not saying he's a bust as in he's Adam Thielen, don't draft him, he's not going to be able to do anything this year, but he's being drafted as the wide receiver Adam Thielen, don't draft him, he's not going to be able to do anything this year.

But he's being drafted as the wide receiver 20, and I don't think when you take him there that he has upside. You know, there's a lot of good wide receivers on the board when you're drafting around wide receiver 20. And you say, well, does he have the chance to be this volume player, this young explosive athlete play that will really dominate for fantasy? No, I don't think so. Can he have a solid season and end up with enough touchdowns to be relevant at the end of the year? Okay, I'll grant you that.

But also, could he just not have enough volume and enough touchdowns in this offense that goes to Derrick Henry where it's like, eh, he just wasn't really worth it. He still had it, but pretty much a bust pick. And I think that's what's going to happen. I think he's being drafted off of name recognition alone primarily. You still have Traylon Burks there who, you know, is dealing with his own injury, but he's going to be there this season. He's not out for the year. And where he's going, you know, I'd rather take a shot on,

if you're going to go low volume, I want the young explosive athlete like a DJ Moore, a Terry McLaurin. You know, I would rather take a shot on Christian Watson. You know, I know Andy loves Brandon Ayuk. There's just players that I think have more upside and are in better situations for volume or offense than drafting the name recognition of Hopkins that just doesn't you know it's like maybe he'll just be the wide receiver 20 that you're drafting a wide receiver 20 but that's it's not what I'm looking for in those early rounds but in the fourth round no no thank you okay so where are you targeting him Andy I'm comfortable with him at ADP.

I mean, I don't see a lot other than the offense. Obviously, the passing volume is a case that differentiates these two players, but I would see Hopkins in the same vein as the value of Keenan Allen in terms of in the offense. Keenan Allen is not an explosive player. Keenan Allen is a 10 a catch. DeAndre Hopkins is big enough to still bring in touchdown numbers, and they don't have Traylon Burks for maybe the first six weeks of the year. So when I say I'm targeting him, it's opportunistic because of the Burks injury

and because this offense functions really well in a play-action situation where Hopkins has shown no difficulty in getting separation. But I'm comfortable at 20. You would say Hollywood? You would take over Hopkins? Oh, that's a good question. That one's really interesting. Former teammate?

Yeah, I think I would take Hollywood. I would rather have Hollywood. Would you take Mike Williams? When you talk about explosiveness? I would rather have Mike Williams. Chris Godwin, who's in an offense with probably middle-of-the-pack passing volume. The Baker-Nears? Godwin doesn't have necessarily.

I think Godwin and Hopkins are pretty equal to each other, so that's like a roster construction build. If I need more volume and safety and consistency, then I'd go Godwin. If I wanted bigger upside, more touchdowns through the season for weak winning performances than Hopkins. I am curious. Oh, he was suspended for six games. Yeah.

I was trying to remember his ADP the last time we saw him in the kind of this time of year. Two years ago? Yeah. I wonder if the name recognition, if it still was there for Hopkins, I feel like he'd be was there for Hopkins I feel like he'd be higher than 20 I don't know because this was a this was a perennial top five player at the position for so many years but I guess that has worn off yeah it's it's worn off and

I think the Titans the boiling it down to just real simple volume is when when DeAndre Hopkins came off of the six game suspension and you weren't really sure what you were going to get, and he was actually fantastic for fantasy football. I mean, wide receiver 10, 2, 20, 15, 15, 12. In that stretch of games, though, he was seeing 10.7 targets per game. That's really, really strong. Hopkins, we're talking about basically a 30% target share. If you give him that 30% target share off of the numbers Jason just mentioned, the 29 pass attempts a game, the 10.7 targets drops to 8.7.

And if he's seeing between 8 and 9 targets versus between 10 and 11, that's a pretty big deal for his offensive output. Not only that, but if you look at how he performed last season Hopkins, Hopkins came back from his suspension and dominated. Week 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, he was the wide receiver 10, 2, 20, 15, 15. Almost like I just said that. Almost. Well, I was giving the specifics,

but all of those games, every single one, was without Marquise Hollywood Brown. Right. So he was the only guy. And maybe to start the season, you don't have... He's always done that. He's always had those targets. Sure.

Well, when Hollywood came back, he was the wide receiver, 34, 37, 100 and something. But I can't remember if Kyler was there for those games. So that might not be fair either. Still had 11, 11 and 10 targets. I do think that with Traylon Burks and Hopkins, Chig, Akonquo coming up with a smaller passing volume, I just don't think the upside's there for Hopkins.

To me, it's just the pie. Hopkins, I think, can still be a 30% target share player, which is absurd if hopkins had gone and signed with the chiefs this isn't like anti deandre hopkins this is more anti the role for the titans because if he signed with the chiefs i'd be drafting them at 80 no way above where he is now i'd be what wide receiver 10 drake london or deandre hopkins based on since you have a passing volume situation there we go i will go that i will go with hopkins there i i do have worries about drake london values

all right uh let's talk about some players that actually represent good draft day value All right. Let's talk about some players that actually represent good draft day value in fantasy football. We're not saying reach for them, but we're saying these are guys that are going to drop to places they shouldn't be dropping to. And you're probably going to get a player that deserved to be drafted around or two higher when the season is all said and done. And this player has had a tumultuous, difficult offseason in a lot of respects. He had to take a pay cut. He had to go to court. He got to make headlines in the worst possible ways. And because of that, you get to draft him a lot later than he should be drafted another finalist for the my guy but joseph mixon running back for the super bowl threatening cincinnati

bangles is being drafted in the fourth round of fantasy drafts what are they doing to the super bowl they're threatening to destroy it they They are an assembly of villains. No. Look, Joe Mixon, do you remember how many targets Joe Mixon had last year? It was not the number, but it was so many. No, 96. He was on pace for 90 targets. He had 76 targets or 74 because he missed a handful of games.

He still caught 60 passes last season despite missing three games. A reception, a target to the running back is worth two and a half times a carry. They have no one. I looked at my offseason projections this morning and I adjusted them because Chris Evans is now the leader in the clubhouse to be the third down involved back. Travion Williams, Chase Brown, Chris Evans is now the leader in the clubhouse to be the third down involved back Travion Williams Chase Brown Chris Evans these are back row running back room names Joe Mixon is literally stepping into more opportunity with less competition Samaj AP Ryan who was capable is gone on a team that is going to be great, where you could see touchdown variation trend back in his direction,

I just don't understand it. I don't see why he is going where he's going. I have him ranked at RB9. You guys are with me on this one as a value. And, you know, he got a not guilty in the courtroom, which will not have an imminent effect on his availability. Uh, so to me, he is just kind of sticking out like a sore thumb. I think players are fatigued, uh, on taking Joe Mixon.

They, they want to go with the sex. Like a good example is, is Travis ETN. Like they want to go with a younger, sexier, more explosive player. Joe Mixon's days of being the next Adrian Peterson are over. But he's still the current Joe Mixon, which I think is going to provide a lot of value because he's a great pass catcher. He has the explosive game possibilities.

You get a couple of Jamar chases dragged down on the goal line this year. You're going to have touchdown variation come back into his favor um where was he total i'm pulling this up total touchdowns he had seven rushing touchdowns last year versus 13 the year before almost double the rushing touchdowns uh the year prior yeah the great and disappointing joe mixon um also was the running back discrepancy though well he missed he missed three games so this is a player who finished at RB 12 missing three games last year and is being drafted as you know

a fourth round pick so keep your eye on Joe Mixon in your drafts he's a great option specifically for players that go in on a onesie so if you go in on a tight end in the first or the third round Kelsey and Andrews you go in on hertz alan mahomes because you're like i gotta have that guy now you got joe mixon who's a possible top 12 back

in the fourth round yeah no he he is a very good value it's it's kind of easy sometimes there are certain things where you can look at and say okay okay, well, this guy will clearly be of value and beat his ADP. And two of them sometimes that are easy to predict are positive touchdown regression, meaning when a player last year was inefficient on touchdowns specifically, then they're probably going to bounce back because that's just what happens with touchdowns. And that's something for Joe Mixon. His opportunities inside the five, I mean, the opportunities are there. The touchdowns didn't come, and that's just the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. So he drops an ADP.

And then the other way to find a discount is a lot of bad publicity and question marks around someone's name, especially with suspension looming, the questions of will he miss time. Well, that was scary. That pushed his ADP down. That meant that when he was in the third round and you're looking to draft him or someone else, you go, well, I don't know what's going on with his legal situation.

He could get suspended. I'm going to go with the other guy. So his ADP keeps falling. Now we've got clarity there that he's almost certainly not going to get suspended for this. Will, just to throw in, I haven't heard anything about a suspension, but due to the player conduct, whatever it is. Player conduct policy. Policy.

I couldn't think of the last word. The NFL, guys have been ruled not guilty in the court of law and then still receive a suspension for giving the NFL a very public situation. Yeah, that is definitely true. But, I mean, if you go back and look at the times where they've been found not guilty but then a suspension has come, it's usually a very – it's a much more significant crime being accused that's kind of been thrown out. So I don't expect a suspension.

If we had video of it, I'd be more worried. Yeah. Alvin. Joe Burrow, third and check down rate in the league yeah Burrow loves checking it down I think I'm in agreement I think Joe Mixon is a value uh I get people not wanting to draft him and I I get people for his off the field stuff and I get people not wanting to draft him for on the field it's like is is Joe he's a good pass catcher but is he a great running back I mean I don't know I mean he's essentially like when you look at his his efficiency over the last four years of his decline for sure it's he's sitting right at four yards a carry and and that includes two seasons under four.

One of them was six games, so maybe he had time to get that 3.6 up. But it's like this is – he feels more like Najee Harris when it comes on the ground, but his pass-catching role is – hey, the numbers are the numbers. But the pass-catching role, his is much safer, I think, than Najee's. You know what's crazy is part of the sell to me is that you have a football team with Joe Burrow, who's not yet paid, right? Correct.

Yeah, he hasn't. Herbert got his. So you have this team that's in the hunt, and their entire administration decides they don't need to go get a running back. Like there's something to be said about that. That is a little bit surprising. Yeah, especially when there have been running backs out there that they could have acquired.

I'm going to hop in because I just talked about the way to find a value is positive touchdown regression versus people that underperformed. No one has ever underperformed no one has ever underperformed in touchdowns in the history of the NFL the way that Deontay Johnson did last year uh that is a historical fact everyone knows that he got the goose egg zero touchdowns he had 147 targets and zero touchdowns I mean that should be in the Guinness book that's like Jacoby Myers would hang with him yeah I mean how do you do it Jacoby Myers is such a good example here because Jacoby Myers the year prior was that dude he had so many you know the storyline

that was a storyline it's like is this the week he's gonna finally catch a touchdown then eventually he did and all of that and so you go well he's not a touchdown guy he's he's a guy that you know can get a hundred and whatever targets and get no touchdowns. Well, Jacoby Myers last year had six touchdowns. You know, it bounced back for him. Um, Deontay Johnson is a very talented player. He was my bust pick on last year's, uh, episode. And that was good. It was on the basis of the fact that rookie quarterbacks don't support a top 36 wide receiver. 70% of the time, a rookie wide receiver, the rookie quarterback's wide receiver one is the wide receiver 39 or worse on average. So if earning targets is a skill, as we often say,

then Deontay Johnson is as skilled as it gets in the NFL if you look at players who have had a 23 percent target share over the last three years it is a list of superstars and Deontay Johnson it's Keenan Allen, Debo Samuel, Stephon Diggs, AJ Brown, Devontae Adams, Justin Jefferson, Cooper Cup. He would have really liked it if you had just said it's a list of superstars yeah I know he would have appreciated the period at the end of that sentence. It would have been great. I do think that Deontay Johnson is limited versus those other guys. Those other guys have some physical traits and talents like Debo Samuel and A.J. Brown

and just a much bigger, stronger athlete than what Deontay Johnson is. But you've got Keenan Allen on that list too, a guy that's just much more similar, just always getting open, always a great route runner, catching the ball, doing great stuff, and in a PPR league, he's going to be outstanding. But last year, he finished as, I believe, the wide receiver 39, and that's almost where he's being drafted right now. He's being drafted at the wide receiver 34, and that was with zero touchdowns. Can he pick it? We haven't talked about him, but he's looked good this preseason. He's had a really, really good preseason.

I think his reads, his throws, he's had touchdowns in preseason. And when you look at rookie quarterbacks versus sophomore quarterbacks, that is always the biggest jump. The biggest leap for them is their touchdown percentage rate. If that goes up and Deontay Johnson just stays as a primary target, which he will, and he gets touchdowns, there's no way he's going to be the wide receiver 35. He's going to beat that ADP. People are ripping their pants off for George Pickens right now too. And I think that that is affecting the stability and the ADP of Deontay Johnson.

I don't know if you heard this, but George Pickens is a highlight machine. So he gets posted around on Twitter and it's easy to find videos of George Pickens' greatest hits. Ryan Clark just called George Pickens more talented than Justin Jefferson on national television. What are you doing,

Ryan? And so when I say that, like players like that are exciting. I've heard it from the sealer fans and I'm not saying George Pickens is incapable of giving you some great games, but you are kind of passing over the guaranteed target share for the, I don't know, excitement, one-handed catches, backflips of George Pickens,

and Pickens wasn't a player that was able to demand targets last season. Yeah, I mean, it's simple math. You know, the wide receiver 35 is where he's being drafted over the last decade. That player averages 100 targets. The wide receiver 35. I mean, Deontay Johnson is going to have 140 targets, but he's guaranteed at least 120. And at 120 targets, that should be 10 spots higher in ADP.

You had the most Sly Stallone pause in your speech ever. I am the law. Oh, man, two Sly Stallone pause in your speech ever. I am the law. Oh, man. Two Sly references in a show? All right, Mike. I am very excited to hear this value pick that you have selected for today's show because I want to – I'm willing to receive. I have no opposition or excitement for this player thus far this offseason.

I have been very neutral. I am sitting, me and Jason, both right around ADP. or excitement for this player thus far this offseason. I have been very neutral. I am sitting, me and Jason, both right around ADP. I want to hear the case for your guy. And my excitement lies only in his ADP. Is this player good? I don't know. I do not know.

But I know that he's going to have a massive opportunity, and you aren't paying up. This is not a dead zone running back like in the back of the third or the fourth that you're just like, well, is this player good? I don't know, but I like his opportunity. He's going in the seventh on sleeper as the running back, 28, and it is Rashad White. Rashad White, a third-round pick just last year, so he's coming into his sophomore season.

He was behind Leonard Fournette, a.k.a. the dump truck, which we've all been behind a dump truck, and it's hard to pass them on the road because they're very large vehicles. Over the second half of the year, though, he was starting to get used a bit more. But here's where it's exciting. From weeks 10 through 17, 53% of the snaps, 17 opportunities a game, five top 24 finishes for Rashad White. And the offense just was not exciting at all this past season.

It's not really exciting this year. So you can kind of wash those out. But we're talking about looking at rookie running backs with 50 plus receptions and what did they do in their sophomore year and it's actually a pretty strong hit list of of players who game through uh it's really basically just like duke johnson and naeem hines who are truly satellite running backs, that they failed. But Gio Bernard, 50 receptions, finished as a top 24 running back the next year. Kareem, Alvin Kamara, McCaffrey, even Tariq Cohen is on this list. So it's just players who get used in the passing game, we know it.

Two and a half targets, like Andy said, two and a half times more valuable than a carry. Rashad White should get a whole bunch of targets. The Buccaneers, much like the Bengals, who lost a big piece of the running back room and then did really nothing about it and it was kind of confusing, Rashad White is the guy. I do like Sean Tucker, who was an undrafted free agent,

but he was an undrafted free agent. He had a heart condition that led to that as well, but Rashad White is set up so much to see all the opportunity. He's set up to be the goal line running back, the pass catching running back. He's currently set up to be everything for this team, the absolute main guy. Will Baker target the running back position like Tom Brady did? Well, Baker checked it down 11.9% of his attempts with Carolina and Los Angeles last year. That was the highest in the NFL.

So expect Rashad White to see a whole bunch of work. Is he actually good? That's kind of TBD, but the fact that his draft price is where it is, I think he represents a great value at the running back position. I feel like Rashad White has kind of withstood potential challenges all offseason, where this is a team that we said, oh, they'll add somebody. I mean, they're a target to add somebody.

It hasn't happened, right? And then, like, when your biggest competition is chase edmonds right you know then then you don't have any competition you know rashad white kishon vaughn is still there yeah and he's fallen behind chase edmonds which tells you everything you need to know about him rashad white is going to have opportunity in this offense. And they've also – Exactly. Full stop. I mean, that's it. I mean, you lost Russell Gage. You know, like the distribution tends to lend itself to running backs

when you lose valuable targets in the receiving game at wide receiver. So, look, he's a fine flyer where he's going. Exactly. I am blind to him i i'm which i don't i was i spent most of the offseason like i'm not i don't want anything to do with rashad white because i figured he'd i figured his adp would get pumped way up yeah and he hasn't happened he'd be a dead zone running back and yet he has just stayed i think because because of the stink of the quarterback competition it has depressed the the ADP of everybody for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers I do completely understand your argument like I

I fully fully get it he's got opportunity that you can't usually get in the eighth but I just went and I checked my underdog exposure um I don't know how many 50 60 leagues I've got and I was like I wonder because I I just I'm blind to him I 60 leagues i've got and i was like i wonder because i i just i'm blind to him i just i never want him and i was like how many leagues have i taken him in zero yeah i don't know because you don't see his name in the list yeah exactly it's like i've never had the opportunity to draft which i don't blame you all. I've never had the opportunity. You've had many, many opportunities. No, I've never seen his name. It just skips.

There's a black line over his name. Which means that if any of you out there would like to play against Jason in the Megaloball, you will have every opportunity to draft Rashad White that you would like. He's a great value, I hear. Please head over to Megaloball.com for all the entry details. And we will be back with another episode tomorrow for you. Thank you for joining us today.

For all the debates, disagreements, sliced alone. We'll catch you tomorrow. See ya. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.