Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Draft Value Picks + Trade Talk - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/21

Episode Date: August 21, 2025

Fantasy Football show for Aug 21, 2025. Players to target in fantasy football drafts! Andy, Mike, and Jason highlight their favorite value picks. Plus, fantasy football trade talk! Advice for making t...rades after your draft, and a common mistake to avoid. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.2025 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT + Draft Analyzer available now at UltimateDraftKit.comCompete in the largest fantasy football league! Megalabowl.com(00:00) Intro(06:05) Post-Draft Trades(08:00) NFL News(14:32) Fantasy Football Values(16:32) Andy's Pick(24:55) Jason’s Pick(33:08) Mike’s Pick(39:06) Mailbag (39:29) Drafting Late WRs(44:28) Baker Mayfield Bust pick?(47:30) Jahmyr Gibbs or Justin Jefferson(48:25) Dynasty Managers Turnover(50:31) What Coach Would be bad at FF(51:56) Kyle Pitts or Troy FranklinConnect with the show:Subscribe on YouTubeVisit us on the WebSupport the ShowFollow on XFollow on InstagramJoin our Discord

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Starting point is 00:00:00 All right, all right, all right, it's almost that time of year, the time when I set the foundation for supreme and total dominance at my fantasy football draft. How can I be so confident? Because I use the ultimate draft kit from the fantasy footballers. Man, it updates all off-season. never worry about using old busted information. Consistency charts, auction values, full projections. Oh, baby, this thing's got it all. If you want to keep it 100 for your draft, head to ultimate draft kit.com and get your copy today.
Starting point is 00:01:00 Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Thursday, August 21st, the fantasy footballers podcast, Andy Mike and Jason, back with you, another episode, talking values today, NFL news breaking every micro second, it seems. Yeah, it's been fun. Yeah, you've been just, it's nice to know when you open up the, you know, Twitter. It's so something There's a video to watch There's a headline There's a puff piece about a player
Starting point is 00:02:05 There's an injury Yeah that part's not fun That part's not as But when trades Depends on who you got on Dynasty Oh yeah I'm kidding I'm kidding
Starting point is 00:02:15 I'm joking When you open it up the Twitter machine You see a trade that like Benefit of one of the rookies You got you're like Oh okay Okay You would be referring to what happened
Starting point is 00:02:26 Yesterday with Devon Sky Moore. Oh, yes. I kid you. The second I saw that Sky Moore was involved in a trade, I literally was like breaking news, Sky Moore's in the NFL. I had no idea that this man was still on
Starting point is 00:02:39 a roster. I mean, we have spent the entire off season. He didn't know he was on a roster. We talk about Jalen Royals, right? You can go down the depth chart on the chief's wide receivers. Never did Sky Moore. Like, it feels like a key card that was meant to be blocked at the door, but it keeps working and he just keeps going
Starting point is 00:02:55 and trying not to get caught in the facilities. you're talking about last year three targets. Three, not three receptions. No. How many receptions? Oh, zero. Okay. That's why we forgot he plays football. So sky is the limit is, it's three. Yeah. That's the sky. Okay.
Starting point is 00:03:12 But we did score a touchdown. He did score a touchdown in the Super Bowl against the team that traded for him. Is that he was, he might have. I know he scored in a Super Bowl before. There's a 49er boy. We'll talk about all of the. It was me Cole Hardman. McCle Hartman. I thought Skymore did too. I thought they both did. I bet you Skymore scored in a Super Bowl might not have been
Starting point is 00:03:33 about against the 49ers. Yeah. So, yeah, that's a sweet. I can't keep track of all those Skymore touchdowns. Yeah, it's hard to keep track. But we welcome you in. We're happy to have you here. We're heading into the biggest draft weekend of the entire off season coming up. This Saturday, Sunday is the majority, or at least a lot of the drafts are happening this weekend and then the weekend after as well into Labor Day. But make sure you're prepared. The Ultimate Draft Kit
Starting point is 00:04:02 available right now, Ultimate DraftKid.com. We made the announcement earlier this week. I want to remind you the Megalobul. A lot of you had been asking. Is it going to come back this year? Of course it's coming back. In fact, over, what's the number now? We're over 8,000 signed up
Starting point is 00:04:18 ready to join a league. The leagues will be drafting here in a couple weeks right before the kickoff of the NFL season. And so, yeah, you can go to megalobole.com, join your league, pick which time slot you want, play with other Fookland members, and the winner will get not only a UDK for life, but even better than that incredible reward. They will be in next year's listener league with us. Yeah, so megalobole.com for there, all Fookland supporters, get a free entry into the
Starting point is 00:04:50 megalobole. It's going to be super fun this year. And we're looking forward to it. What else is going on? I did just find out that the first NFL touchdown of Skymore's career was in the Super Bowl. Ah, against Philadelphia. Against the Eagles. All right.
Starting point is 00:05:03 Now, was that also the last one in his career or does he, has he had any sense? Going with the three targets, zero receptions. Yeah. I think that's a strong possibility. You can go to YouTube, watch the show, YouTube.com. Oh, yes, too, Kyle? Slash the fantasy footballers, two in his career. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:05:20 There was a... Hey, that's two more than us, guys. that's true that's true yeah i have zero actually yeah uh you can follow us on acts at the f f ballers make sure you follow us on your podcasting app spotify apple leave us a review a lot of you jumped in there left a review for alborland it left them in uh tears really a gratitude right i mean absolutely i appreciate you you were bawling um but thank you for those reviews you're welcome wait what making me. All right, quick question.
Starting point is 00:05:57 What did I just agree to? I was looking up Skymore touchdowns because I'm only seeing one. One was in the Super Bowl. One was in the regular season. Ah, gotcha. Yeah, yep, that's it. All right, quick question of the day comes in on X.
Starting point is 00:06:12 DMoney 24 writing in. What are your thoughts on making trades after your draft before week one begins? Sounds fun to me. I mean, anytime you're making a trade, you hope it's a good move for you. I don't think there's... It is the funniest trade to make because a lot of the time it is, you know, you're making a bet with no new information from the draft, right?
Starting point is 00:06:34 It's like everybody got drafted in specific spots and my different teams. I've done it before. We've done it before. We've done it on draft day. Like post draft, you're like, ah, shoot. I really wish I had gone. You know, sometimes there's that perfect match. The vibes of deteriorated.
Starting point is 00:06:48 Right after a draft where it's like, oh, you know, I gambled on my time. tight end and lost and then I wish I got this guy and the other guy's like oh I wish I did the opposite and they're like you want to be in the middle you want to swap ski those I've I've done that before but I nothing wrong with it nothing wrong with it what is wrong and you see players do and we get the question asked is it a good strategy and it is tax fraud no it is not a good idea not a good idea to participate in tax fraud yeah ask mr. Snipes uh you can go to jail but um I would not draft to trade. The players that are like
Starting point is 00:07:23 oh, I'm going to get... Yeah, don't do that. I'm going to draft both of the big tight ends and trade one of them or I'm going to get, you know, people did this in the past with defenses. I remember being in a league where it's like, I'm going to hoard all the defenses and trade them. And then the draft
Starting point is 00:07:39 is over and you're like, nobody's interested. Right, nobody's into the waiver wire. Enjoy your team with five defenses. Yeah. So, no, nothing wrong with it. Um, I guess there'd be the advantage of like if if you have somebody on free agency that you also want and you think you can two for one consolidate your roster with the trade and then add a free agent player. That's a way to do it. So just don't draft to trade. News and notes from around the league presented by progressive insurance.
Starting point is 00:08:14 Adam Schaefter reporting the Bucks are expected to activate Chris Godwin off the PUP list. and have him on the 53-man roster. This is exactly what they're doing with Tristan Worf's, their left tackle. It's weird. So he is not expected to play until October per Schefter. So basically they don't want him to miss four. If you put someone on the pop, then they've got to miss the minimum of four games. So I think they're thinking maybe he'll miss two.
Starting point is 00:08:40 And then there's rules about like practicing as well. So this keeps them available to practice. Yeah. We had two trades. You mentioned one of them. Skymore went to the 49ers from the Chiefs, a 6-7 pick swap for Skymore. Too much. The 49ers have no wide receipts.
Starting point is 00:08:57 I mean, that shows you how bad the 49ers receiving room is. You know, yesterday I think we had Ricky Pearsall as a sleeper's because there's no one to throw the ball to there. We had news in the receiver room for the 49ers yesterday. Jacob Cowing re-aggraveded a hamstring injury. Oh, that's not good. Good. DeMarcus Robinson, officially getting suspended three games. Shanhan came out and said, we're expecting three, but they're going to appeal it, so it could get cut down from three.
Starting point is 00:09:24 It is why I mentioned Robinson will be relevant at some point, I think. Russell Gage, apparently on that team as well, he's going to miss seven to ten, is that days? With a sprained MCL? Yeah, okay. So they've got Skymore. We've seen it. We've come back quick from that. We had a big move, the Broncos.
Starting point is 00:09:44 They got a fourth and a seventh. Which, what? That's a lot. Now, it was for Devon Veilay, who was a rookie, big slot-wide receiver that played for them last year. He played well. He seems like a good player. But this is a real- Andy.
Starting point is 00:10:01 Yes. Do you know how old Devon-Belay, last year's rookie? I do, actually. Oh, you do? Mike, do you? I know that he is much older. He's not a 21-year-old rookie. No, there's something like.
Starting point is 00:10:12 So how old do you think he is? I believe he is going to be 30 before the end of his rookie contract. So I will put him at 27. 27.7 years old. That is wild. Now, what did my guy... Guys, he's in his prime. What did my guy George receive for a trade?
Starting point is 00:10:31 George Pickens? Yeah. Oh, I don't remember. I think it was a third. So a fourth and a seventh for a 27-year-old valet. Or George Pickens, who's 24 years old. You don't pay your valet that. Yeah, you're going to have a third.
Starting point is 00:10:44 of money. But he goes to the Saints. Saints need help, a wide receiver, beyond Olave, and you know, Vela is going to provide that some help over there. But this is also a huge endorsement, I think, of Pat Bryant in particular. And then obviously, there's two possibilities here of, like. Well, from a, from a, I'm talking about the Broncos, yeah. Yeah, I mean, obviously Troy Franklin is going to have a role. No. But it's, it's either this, because this is opening up the slot. Yeah. So this is either. Pat Bryant or Evan Engram's about to get a bazillion targets. Yeah, no, I don't think it's Troy Franklin.
Starting point is 00:11:21 Franklin's a... What? Franklin will have, like, they have more confidence in Franklin to go play on the outside and catch some deep passes. But from a week-to-week standpoint, it puts Pat Bryant on the map as wide receiver, too. It does. Like, to me, that's the player that they went out. They aggressively pursued him in the draft.
Starting point is 00:11:40 You mean the new Michael Thomas. Right. Oh, yeah. Those are not my words, guys. This is the number one thing we do in fantasy, too, is we rebuild great teams with the coach when they move around. We just rebuild their good teams. Sean Payton, comped him. We know you can't rebuild what, Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush and those players with Javante Williams and Tyler Badee.
Starting point is 00:12:07 So does it, do you move Evan Ingram up at all? I bumped them up a little bit It makes sense that you would move him up a little because the confidence level I think was maybe not there that he could put up the big PPR numbers but taking a target away
Starting point is 00:12:25 Yeah I think PPR numbers are where I have more confidence I think he'll be involved My lack of confidence in Evan Ingram is more what he's going to do with the targets whether they're going to be efficient whether he's going to score touchdowns etc but you know you look at this team He's the Joker
Starting point is 00:12:40 Yeah I mean he already has his wings. I'm joking. According to Sean Payton. And the reports recently have been that he is very, very involved in the passing game. This move of valet is the same area of the field that Evan Ingram is going to work. So, yeah, I mean, Pat Bryant, massive endorsement and Evan Ingram more targets to come his way. So what else do we have?
Starting point is 00:13:05 We got Jordan Addison. The Vikings need wide receivers. Yeah, the Vikings are in need of wide receivers. Addison and Ty Felton arm injuries in Wednesday's practice. Not supposed to be severe, but Addison's out for three weeks. Yeah, well, we'll see. Jalen Wright exited practice today with an apparent injury. Dolphins running back.
Starting point is 00:13:24 They were already the leader in terms of the rumor mail for Brian Robinson with Devon A. Chan injured, with Madison out for the season, with Jalen Wright, you know, now hurt. It looks like they're going to be a landing spot for some running back at some point. because otherwise you're going, I mean, otherwise Ollie Gordon is your starter in week one potentially. Yeah, A. Chan might not be available week one. So that's something you need to pay attention to in your
Starting point is 00:13:50 drafts. For sure. Like, Ollie Gordon becomes a pretty high priority late target. Should they not go get Robinson, of course? He manned almost all of the Dolphins running back reps in practice today after the injury. A. Chan's not out
Starting point is 00:14:06 there. So, Ollie Gordon looking sneaky as the season gets ready begin. That was News and Notes, sponsored by Progressive Insurance. Quote today at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and third-party insurers, not available in all states or situations. Coverage subject to policy terms, limits, and conditions. We'll take a quick break. And we'll come back with some values for the 2025 fantasy football season. Values All right gentlemen
Starting point is 00:14:48 It is time for some individual value picks Good draft A values is what we're looking at, players that, you know, we're not necessarily saying you go reach for them, but guys that will drop to places that we don't think they belong. This is kind of, you know, one of the big features we had to do the UDK this year was the Value Scout tool
Starting point is 00:15:07 where we take our projections and rankings for players, and we compare them to a platform's average draft position. So you can go into the UDK, you can open the tool, and you'll see where we believe a player's true value is in a draft versus where they're going. And then you can use that information to kind of adjust your strategy and drafts on your platform. Today we picked out some individual value picks,
Starting point is 00:15:34 my name that I'm going to bring up. This is a player that I briefly talked about, I think a couple days ago, maybe in passing, that I thought was being undervalued. But it's time to talk about him. Wow. It is Debo. Going right to the drop is bold. It is Debo Samuel, wide receiver one for the Washington commanders.
Starting point is 00:15:57 That is currently true. I think it might be true all the times, all the times. Even if the player comes back, even if Terry McLaren comes back, Debo Samuel, there was a little bit of the, offseason goofball fantasy analysis, and if we associate being slow in the offseason with fantasy success, so far it is a very good hit rate because last year's off season was Keenan Ellen. Oh, Fat Keenan. Looks like he can't run. That was fun. That was really fun. And then he had a great season in Chicago. Debo, obviously. Fat Debo. Fat Debo. He was real slow on the field last year,
Starting point is 00:16:33 though. Well, let's talk about that. That's what we're talking about. Debo, Samuel, I think we would all agree isn't the same Debo necessarily that we saw years ago always dealt with some injuries, had prolific what number two overall fantasy finished in San Francisco one season. He's 29 years old. They traded a fifth round pick for him. Again, there's another example.
Starting point is 00:16:53 You traded a fifth for Debo. You traded a four and seven for Velae. Okay. Yeah. But the biggest question that we have is does he still have it? Now, if you, I mean, just yesterday I think all the beat riders in Washington were pulled to say who was the most impressive player in camp for the Washington Commanders,
Starting point is 00:17:09 no no what oh it wasn't bill it wasn't bill crossy it wasn't bill croskey it wasn't oh bill croskey can unscramble scrambled scrambled eggs i should have known that if i brought up a commander player i was in deep trouble trying to get through oh i'm just shocked that that the washington beat reporters are not also in on no the the most impressive player in training camp was debo samin that is the okay number one player named and Debo, we saw him briefly. We saw the jet sweep. We saw classic Debo in the preseason game on Monday.
Starting point is 00:17:45 He looked very fast once again. But this is about scheme, right? If you get past the, hey, is Debo, maybe he's not the same Debo. But the question is, is Debo done? And I don't think Debo is done from what we've seen on the practice field in training camp or in the preseason. And if he's not done, then you literally dropped Debo Samuel into the best possible offense for Debo Samuel. There is no better situation than Debo with Cliff Kingsbury. Behind the line of scrimmage targets is what...
Starting point is 00:18:15 You're talking about the route push? It's what Cliff does. 20% of Jaden Daniels targets were behind the line of scrimmage. Fifth highest in the NFL. Kingsbury's wide receivers rank, here's their ranks on screen targets over the last three years. First, second, third. That's what they do. And Debo averages two plus fantasy points per target on the screen passes.
Starting point is 00:18:37 This is a match made in heaven, and we don't even have Terry McLaren in camp. And we already know Terry McLaren's regressing in touchdowns anyways. He was not a volume. He's not a 120 catch guy. And so then you ask, well, Debo, what's the, does he still have it when it comes to yards after the catch? Because that's the, you know, this was a player that led the NFL in yards after the catch for four of the previous five years before 2024. Guess what he was last year? Second.
Starting point is 00:19:05 Second in the NFL in yards after the catch. Debo Samuel. Mims was the only one ahead of him, believe it or not. Marvin Mims of the aforementioned Denver Broncos. So, you know, Debo last year tied Garrett Wilson, most evaded tackles at the wide receiver position. Nobody wants to draft it.
Starting point is 00:19:21 He feels like the Cooper Cup pick. He feels like old busted. But we love Washington. We love Jane Daniels. We love what the offense did. Who in the world is going to catch passes for this team? Are you, is it Zach Ertz, Mike? You want to go with Zach Ertz? Oh, he'll catch passes. He will not have yards after
Starting point is 00:19:37 catch, though. I just think that, and this is obviously value is correlated to draft cost. Right now Debo Samuel is way down the board. 38 at wide receiver. Late seventh round pick. He is literally next to Cooper Cup. So he's next to Jacoby Myers.
Starting point is 00:19:53 He's next to Diggs. Like, if you're old, you get drafted at 38, 39, and 40, apparently. That's where the retirement festivities are happening. So, look, the upside is tremendous because you have so much confidence in the team. Like, Debo could be their one. Debo could be their one.
Starting point is 00:20:10 I think the real question is, is he washed? That's the issue. The reason that he's dropped is because what we saw on the field last year looked bad and efficiency-wise was not that great. And so as an older wide receiver, the question is just as does he not have it anymore? Because if that's the case, then it'll be a wasted pick. But I don't think there's a world where it's just an average pick. Like if Debo still has it.
Starting point is 00:20:39 And honestly, I know it's one play and I don't want to overdo it. You know, I just talked about you don't want to, one of the tips was don't overreact to preseason hype. But that's usually more about the young. That would be more about Bill than it would be about Debo. Debo was just, I saw physicality. That cut, you know, he basically got a jet sweep, looked fast, had a great. great cut that was classic Debo, went down the field, you know, was hard to tackle. And it was like, oh, that was, that was what Debo always looked like when he dominated. So if he hasn't
Starting point is 00:21:14 lost it and he's on this offense, then yeah, it's a great pick. I just have a hard time, like, if you play out how a game, a game plan goes for a commander's offense, I have a hard time seeing them not put the ball in his hands a ton because of what Kingsbury does. And then you're like, well, did those metrics support that he was still good after the catch? Last year they did. And so to be the most impressive player in camp as well, I think he is being
Starting point is 00:21:41 undervalued because we're done with him and we want to take shots on other players. But, you know, Roma Dunza is going a few picks ahead of him. I would understand that one. But, you know, when you're talking about is Jacobi Myers upside, what Debo's is in Washington? Probably
Starting point is 00:21:57 not. Where it's difficult for me, like the eighth round is that's fantastic the speaking of scheme that's where it's where i don't know exactly what to do with debo because he i mean he was the bell of the ball you know for years with san francisco and last year they really needed debo samuel with with brandon i yuk suffering the season ending injury after the by week so you're talking uh eight games where he's playing a full allotment of snaps. You're talking an average of 79% of the snap. So he's playing that game.
Starting point is 00:22:34 In that time, in those eight games, he was averaging three catches for 33 yards per game. And he, like, Kyle Shanahan was done with him. So that, that's what scares me off of, of Debo. But again, we, we do try to relate, like, if risk is built into ADP, then you aren't, you aren't risking anything in the eighth round. Like, I'm not nearly as bullish as Andy.
Starting point is 00:23:00 is i'd like i would probably say i'm more out like i'm considered myself more out on dbo but in the eighth if he does still have something i like even if terry comes back i don't love that terry mcloran is going to be missing the essentially the entire training camp and off season i know he's a pro and he knows the office everything but you you can't just walk onto a football field in week one and say I'm ready to play so he is I think he's interesting uh despite me just despite what I watched last year was was a player who was not a part of the San Francisco offense yeah and I don't think he's ever played a full season maybe was it were they playing 16 in 2021 if so that was his only full season in six years in the NFL so that's always a risk
Starting point is 00:23:50 debo takes a lot of punishment on the field but I do think that maybe he's being undervalued especially in light of the McLaren situation. So other value picks, I don't know which one of you guys want to take a shot first. I'll hop in here. My value pick is D.K. Metcalfe for 2025. This is a player who, it makes no sense to me that he is being drafted where he's being drafted in the fifth round as the 22nd wide receiver off the board. I know why, and it's because of the end of last year.
Starting point is 00:24:20 The end of last year, D.K. McCaff, he disappeared. He was pretty irrelevant. But we don't remember the cause. Do you guys remember the cause of what happened to D.K. Metcalfe last year? Eating too much candy. Maybe. He does love himself some Skittles. However, that wasn't it.
Starting point is 00:24:36 He hurt his knee in the middle of the season. Mist week eight, missed week nine came back and wasn't very good. He had, I believe it was a MCL sprain. I'll look that up. But if you look at the splits between when he missed a chunk in the middle of the season and came back kind of injured. And the beginning, you forget that he started the year on pace for 150 targets, 1,400 receiving yards, seven touchdowns. Like, he was really good. He was, you know, what he's been his whole career, which is basically a top 15 wide receiver. Then he gets traded
Starting point is 00:25:12 becomes the guy for Aaron Rogers. They ship out George. They give him a four-year 132 million dollar contract. There's no question from any human on the planet who leads this team in targets. None. There's not even a possible debate. There's not even another player that could accidentally come to the same target share. And if you look at what Aaron Rogers has done with his wide receiver ones, it doesn't matter whether it was Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb or Devante Adams or Devante Adams over and over. He hyper targets them. Last year, this version of Aaron Rogers had Garrett Wilson as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver at the same time that he had Devante Adams as a top 15 wide receiver. The target market shares for wide
Starting point is 00:26:03 receivers. We just did, if you haven't seen the Just the Tips episode of the fantasy football, there's a little mini series we're doing. I talked about wide receiver metrics that matter. And targets are the primary most prescriptive, you know, stat that. eludes to success. And the target market share for a player, if they're about 30%, if they hit that number, they are almost a virtual lock to be a top 12 wide receiver. And you look at like, okay, Aaron Rogers number one wide receiver, you've got years of 31%, 32%, 34%, 31%, 31%, 29%, 28%. And there's no one else to throw the ball here to. Pat Friermuth and Roman Wilson and- I cannot tell you how much I love D.K. MacGF this year. I am in 100% agreement.
Starting point is 00:26:51 I think he is probably the best pick in fantasy or close to it. There are players in the NFL that like I never think like you talked about like why are you out on D.K. Metcalfe I don't even think
Starting point is 00:27:03 like he's not a player that I look at the box score and decide if he's a good player or not legitimately. Like there are do you guys like George Pickens this year? Yeah. He's been the wide receiver
Starting point is 00:27:16 36 26.46.41. George, is he good? I think we all think George Pickens is good. You can watch the game and you can see certain players, the physicality, the skill and ability, and you don't, you know, you don't lay it all at their feet on whether they're productive. Sometimes you have to look at the quarterback situation, the offense, what's going on, and you mentioned the injury. Everybody knows D.K. Metcalf could be one of the most physically dominant receivers in the game of football, and it was proven with the paycheck.
Starting point is 00:27:46 Yeah. The paycheck is the, it's the same as Josh Jacobs after the bad metrics in Los Vegas. It's like everybody on earth knows that that guy is better than everybody else on the field. It just takes a scheme and targets. So I could not agree with you more. It's a great value pick and he won't be moving. Yeah, he's not going to move up. People are kind of tired because he's going into his seventh season and it was a disappointing last year. He has disappointed his ADP for at least three straight years. Yeah, it feels like it. But he's, you know, he's not old. he's 27 he's still in his prime obviously based on the contract with the target share i i feel like his floor if he doesn't get the touchdowns this year which which for him sometimes they come sometimes
Starting point is 00:28:32 they don't he has weird positive regression coming he he scored zero fantasy points inside the 10 last year which based on his utilization was was strange but his floor to me feels like higher than what he's being drafted as the wide receiver 22. I feel like his floor is like wide receiver 2018 if he ends the season with three or four touchdowns. But if he ends the season with eight or nine touchdowns, he's going to be
Starting point is 00:28:58 a top 15 wide receiver easy. How does he not hit his target? I mean, is it a Arthur Smith problem? Like, is that the way he doesn't hit his target all time high? Because he's at 141 for an all time high. I can't imagine he's not above that. I mean, it's injury. Injury is how he doesn't hit it.
Starting point is 00:29:14 There's just last evening. Last he was on pace to beat his all-time high before he injured his knee. And this year, I mean, I know that the Steelers are going to run the ball a lot for sure. They're not going to throw the ball as much as Aaron Rogers wants to throw the ball. But the percentage of the passes that will go to D.K. McKaff will be 28 plus percent. And that's just one of those stats where it points to success almost always. So then my question comes in.
Starting point is 00:29:46 of like your confidence has to also then be coming from Aaron Rogers because last year like Andy you read through you like hey George Pickens finished this like he was the wide receiver 41 averaging just under 10 fantasy points in 14 games last year talking about George Pickens he was the number one of the the office for the Pittsburgh Steelers yeah it doesn't help that he's the example right because they play for the exact same team but so it has to be 100% the quarterback switch I mean, me talking about George as my my guy this year was I brought up the fact that he's played with Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph. And that, shockingly, the worst combo was last year in Fields and Ross as far as catchable target percentage. So I don't feel like it was his fault.
Starting point is 00:30:33 Aaron Rogers is going to put that ball where D.K. Metcalf can catch it. Yeah, and he does go to one guy when he has confidence in one guy. Like there have been a lot of, like they're still looking for a wide receiver potentially outside of Metcalfe. have to help support D.K. The nice thing is, is DK is not like this. Like, he can go and take on a double team. He can get off the line of scrimmage and be physical. You know, it's not an undersized guy, at least,
Starting point is 00:30:57 if you need to hyper-target somebody. So, yeah, I think he's going to be one of those interesting players for sure. We'll take a break and we'll come back with Mike's value pick and we'll jump into some mailbag. All right, Mike, you've brought this name up a lot this offseason. Your value pick today is Jordan Mason. Jordan Mason running back for the Minnesota Vikings, and you got to remember the story of Jordan Mason. Of course, we all know Christian McCaffrey, the legendary.
Starting point is 00:31:29 He's going to be okay for week one, and then he is not. And it's Jordan Mason. He ends up being the guy, and it was not just a, you know, hey, out of boy, you filled in for the running back position for our team. He was fantastic on the ground. Not so much catching the ball, but on the ground, it was awesome. In the first seven weeks, he was averaging 95 rushing yards per game. And they put the offense on his back at that moment, and he really delivered. You know, 41% of his carries went for five or more yards, which last year, that would be a top five mark.
Starting point is 00:32:10 You know, you're talking about the percentage of carries going for five, those. Those chunk plays? Who's the names in that list? Oh, Bucky, Gibbs, Derek Henry, Bejohn Robinson. And then there's Jordan Mason in there with that. And so it was a great season before then, unfortunately, Jordan Mason went down. I think the same week as Christian McCaffrey to the point we're like, okay, the season is over.
Starting point is 00:32:35 We got to shut him down. Then the offseason hits. What are they going to do here with Jordan Mason, who was like they had to figure out, Are they going to pay him? Are they not? They put a second round tender on to Jordan Mason saying this guy is going to be a part of our plans. But then the Minnesota Vikings swooped in and said, no, we would like to trade for Jordan Mason. So we're going to, let's upgrade your draft capital. It's not a huge draft pick swap or anything like that.
Starting point is 00:33:02 But we know that veterans often go for cheaper than they should unless you're the New Orleans Saints. Then you pay a four and a seven for Devon Valle. but the Minnesota Vikings trade for him and then they immediately give him a two-year contract that has $7 million guaranteed. He's a part of their plan. Aaron Jones is coming off of a year that he saw the most work that he has ever seen.
Starting point is 00:33:24 And Aaron Jones is 30, right? Let me tell you something that just happened in our point. Let me just confirm my Experts League, Mike. Aaron Jones is going to be turning 31 this year. Okay, go ahead. The last two picks in the expert league draft just so you know how things are going, 902
Starting point is 00:33:42 Jordan Mason 903 Aaron Jones Whoa okay So I was actually When I got into the Aaron Jones is about you at that point Well look I got into the ninth
Starting point is 00:33:53 In the eighth round I almost took Aaron Jones at 808 Yeah okay And then I was hoping he'd I was like everybody's out on Aaron Jones this much Maybe he'll slip around to 905 he did And he just went But I but Jordan Mason one pick ahead of Aaron Jones
Starting point is 00:34:04 That is Now this is a best ball So you're playing some upside And Aaron Jones does not seem to represent upside in people's minds? Because when they, you hear Kevin O'Connell talking about it, he says, quote, we feel like we've got one of the best combinations of a 1A, 1B running back in the NFL. The goal is to keep them both fresh. The goal is to keep them both 10 of 10. And then it's been talked about Jordan Mason will be our short area, short yardage guy and our goal line guy.
Starting point is 00:34:34 So while, you know, this is not me banging the drum saying Jordan Mason is, Jordan Mason's taking this job. He's going to be a three down back. No, he is going to be in a time share for one of the most potent offenses in the league. And he's going to be the goal line running back. It would not shock me to see Jordan Mason at eight plus rushing touchdowns by the end of the year. And you're getting him in redraft, you know, in not expert leagues, but at home leagues. Running back 40, almost the 11th round for that amount of touchdowns. He's just not a name that people know for sure. So I do. I wonder if you put Jordan Mason up against Would you rather Jordan Mason or Caleb Johnson? Don't ask me. That is an easy Caleb Johnson.
Starting point is 00:35:22 That is That's tough. I think that's a really tough call between the two of those guys. Scataboo or Jordan Mason? Jordan Mason. Charbonate or Jordan Mason? Sharbs, but they're very similar. Yeah, they are.
Starting point is 00:35:36 They're in similar situations where they are the presumed backup, but you're probably going to be playable with the huge upside should the running back ahead of them that projects to not play a full season. Like Ken Walker doesn't ever play a full season and a 31-year-old running back. Aaron Jones usually does not play a full season. I've jokingly on Twitter, I call these guys it's a flex with benefits because this is, this is a player. You can put him right in the flex.
Starting point is 00:36:02 You can play them on a weekly basis and then should because it's not, you know, Oh, he's only the backup. No, he literally play him. And then those couple games where Aaron Jones is missing and it's just Jordan Mason, then holy crap, you'll probably have a top 12 running back that week. It is a bet that the Vikings offense stays successful.
Starting point is 00:36:21 It is a bet. It is definitely a bet on that, but that's just how I'm betting on the Vikings right now. Some of the popular answers on the Foot Clan Discord, so we got some value picks that they threw out there. Calvin Ridley, completely agree on that one. Do you guys agree? Yeah, for sure.
Starting point is 00:36:34 He's very undervalued. Yeah, they mentioned. Jordan Mason, they mentioned Drake May as a value in their mind, and they mentioned DAC Preska as a value as well. I am so in on Dak, where he's going. I took Dak so high above, I'm in a Super Flex League near a turn in an expert league right now, and I took Dak way ahead of ADP where he is in quarterbacks, because I just, I believed he was going to be better than a lot of the quarterbacks that were being drafted after him, and
Starting point is 00:37:03 you know, this was going to be a run. So I had to pick the guy I wanted, and I, I, I, I do think, Dak, is a good value this year. We have more value picks in the Ultimate Draft Kit at Ultimate DraftKit.com. Let's jump into some mailbag. Mailbag. Oh, yeah. Welcome into the mailbag. You can submit your question to the show by going to the website,
Starting point is 00:37:25 the Fantasy Footballers.com. Click that submit a question button. Or you can dial our voicemail. Hotline 302464 TFFB. We'll begin today's mailbag with a voicemail. what's up ballers i was wondering what you guys think is too late to draft a wide receiver in a 12 team full ppr love the show thanks guys i i guess we're presuming two wide receiver spots here that's a big difference but let's go too wide so was this a like a a zero wide receiver
Starting point is 00:37:56 type of a strategy yeah i mean imagine that you like you start off and you get value and you go running back, running back, running back? Are you wrecked? Are you ruined? Or you go running back, running back, and I'm the next pick, you know, McBride falls and you take a tight end. Is that too far? Well, for me, it's, wide receivers are always the place that I can find the most value later in drafts. So like if I, if I, you know, there's so many guys going late, like Jacobi Myers could be a viable wide receiver too. He could end up that way. There are a lot of players in that category. We just talked about where Debo is going. So I always feel like I can get, I can pile up a handful, right? It's also where you can take some mystery bags,
Starting point is 00:38:37 the rookies, you know, maybe Pat Bryant, you know, you put them on your roster late in the draft. I can take more shots at wide receiver. There's more of them on the field. There's more of them with potential upside that we don't know how the situations are going to go, whereas the running backs thin out so quickly that you really feel like you're in a tough situation. You know, how late is too late? That's a tough question to ask. I would want one certifiably reliable known target commodity that wide receiver. I'll give you some hypotheticals of what could shake out.
Starting point is 00:39:06 Let's say you're in the back half of the first. And you start McCaffrey for me, but let's we'll put you in the middle. You get you mere Gibbs, right? It's a PPR, so wide receivers are going to be pushed up in the top. You're starting with Gibbs in the first. It comes back to you. You get either Bucky or Chase Brown. And then you get
Starting point is 00:39:25 McBride or George Kittle. That's how you have started. Yeah, give me your fourth round wide receivers. then you go look at the where 80p is right now you're talking um devante marv maybe as so so as your one that would be it would be considered your one but you got when you go zero of these guys in the first few picks you're you're frankenstining you're building a conglomerate of wide receivers to to be it so you said marv and who so adams and marv could be your wide receiver one what's the next round then the next round is dk mackath or see i'm fine with I would be. K. Meck. Every then in the sixth round, it's like George, Tett McMillan.
Starting point is 00:40:04 If you end up with Metcalf and McMillan, but you have five, four rounds of talent? Like, what are the running backs by Marv and Devante Adams? Let me go pull that up for you. Because that's what I'd love to know. So that would be in the fourth. That's the... It could be a quarterback, too. That's the Breece Hall, Ken Bone Walker, Alvin Camara area. But the quarterback there is who? It's Hertz or Daniels?
Starting point is 00:40:26 In the fourth is Burrow. It hurts is the end of the third. So do you want Burrow, Metcalf, Tett, or would you rather have Marv, you know, Metcalf and late-round quarterback? Metcalf. I would probably go late. I would either take the tight end in the third or Burrow in the fourth. Yeah, I mean, this is really, it's not necessarily what round, and this is what you've got to pay attention to in your draft, right? Because they don't always go according to ADP.
Starting point is 00:40:56 This is why the ultimate draft kit, we've got them broken down into tiers. What matters is like you still have to have a certain tier, a certain caliber, a certain class of wide receiver as your first wide receiver. And I think we named some of those. D.K. Metcalf, to me, I'm fine with him being my first wide receiver. And then you've got to keep loading up and find that value and find that talent. But if your league is going crazy wide receivers, let's say you are in a three wide receiver full PPR and wide receivers are going way earlier, don't just be like, oh, I can wait till the fourth. The baller said I can wait till the fourth. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a matter of... DJ Moore. Is he, oh... I would not personally love him as my one.
Starting point is 00:41:34 I'm getting spooked, man. Okay. It's funny, DJ Moore 96, 98 receptions the last two years. Yeah, I mean, he... When I look at my rankings, it says I should be fine with DJ Moore as my one. My range of outcomes for him, though, I think he's a little bit riskier with O'Donzee, with the new coordinator, and, you know, I still have DJ Moore as the clear cut leader of this uh offense at wide receiver 41% consistency rating but i can see how it doesn't go well
Starting point is 00:42:05 you know devante adams is someone that i think you know he's got the stafford risk we've talked about but he is fine to be your wide receiver one you know the volume will be there when you got those other guys yeah yeah i mean obviously that's not who you're hoping for but if you got true studs elsewhere you know so long as you're getting the best value in each round you should you should be fine. Yeah. Yeah, no, that makes sense. Let's jump into another mailbag question here. All right, Brent writes in
Starting point is 00:42:35 on X. In the UDK, you have Laser Mayfield as a bust, but at quarterback 10. Why is that? So, spoiler. No, what it is, Baker is in there as a regression candidate. So we do have some
Starting point is 00:42:52 in the bust section. Sometimes there are some different things to pay attention to, some, yeah, He has some labels for players. James Cook is the same situation. It's just that Baker was up over 40 touchdowns. It's hard to repeat unless you have another magical season. Right now you've got multiple injuries at wide receiver. We love Baker.
Starting point is 00:43:10 I think quarterback 10 is, it's a good ranking. It's not where he finished, right? He was, what, quarterback five last year? Yeah. It's not where he's being drafted as the quarterback seven as well. If you draft the quarterback seven and spin that six-round pick where there are good players there. And then he ends up at quarterback 10 and throws, you know, 29 touchdowns,
Starting point is 00:43:31 which is not a bad season, but is, then you're, then you're wrecked for fantasy. Exactly. And if you, you know, it's a good example of how the numbers dictate the way you look at players, not just your affection for them. We love Baker. We would love to see Baker throw 50 touchdowns. I would love that. I'd love that for a Mecca, Buka. I think you'd love that. Oh, yeah. But we have to be intelligent about the way numbers. You know, even the Aaron Rogers' of the world ping ponged from 40 touchdowns down to 25, you know, that type of thing. Yeah, two years ago, Jordan Love was the quarterback five like Baker and threw a ton of touchdowns. It was awesome.
Starting point is 00:44:10 And then last year, it went down to nothing. And they profile pretty similarly Baker and Jordan Love and one cost you a six-round pick and the other is where's Love going? Double digits? Yeah. And just for some content. here. In NFL history, we've seen 22 times where a quarterback has thrown over 40 or more touchdowns. Now, it's 11 in the last decade, because obviously it's like
Starting point is 00:44:38 one a year. It's like one a year. We had three last year. In 23, we did not have one. In 2022, there was one. It was my homes. In 21, there was two. So it's like, you know how you get there? You have a fifth quarter. Hey, I'll take it. But it's the, yeah, it's the that's the what we talk about the the danger of the pocket passer is for them when they get boosted at ADP they have to do those types of things or they because where was what did Baker finish as quarterback wise I thought he was a quarterback five I can I can double check it was higher than that but it could have been four point is could have been it could have been three could
Starting point is 00:45:16 have been two he was the quarterback three okay but the point being 4500 passing yards 41 passing touchdowns. He is not the number one quarterback. Like this is just how you got to play the game. You got to play fantasy football. You got to have rushing yards or you got a ball out like MVP level.
Starting point is 00:45:36 Brandon in Miami, Florida, would you rather draft Gibbs or Jefferson from the four spot and half PPR? Gibbs. Yeah, I'll take the shot on Gibbs there. There isn't a like some years,
Starting point is 00:45:52 I think there have been a number one overall pick where you're just like, that guy has to be it. Like Christian McCaffrey after a number one overall season had to be it. Right. But I don't really, I don't look down on anybody taking, like if Jefferson went number one, I do not think that's wrong. No, it's okay. I think Chase is kind of the name we throw out there.
Starting point is 00:46:09 Chase, Bejohn, Gibbs, Sequin, Jefferson, those five are fine, right? Is there anybody else in that category? You want to take Henry number one? Yeah, I mean, if you did, I wouldn't, I'd be like, Whoa, that's surprising, but that could work. I would throw C.D. Lamb into the same mix with Jefferson and Chase as far as range of outcome to finish as the number one. All right, question from Taco Mark on X.
Starting point is 00:46:34 How do you handle managers dropping out of dynasty leagues? And then also, what if it's mid-season? Oof, mid-season. Number one, shame on that person. Mid-season. Unless life event, right? Yes. Better be a candid event.
Starting point is 00:46:51 Like, this better be a life-changing. If you're going to bail- You are in jail. Yeah, right. Even then, you can probably still make it work. So you get to make, right? For sure. Never been in jail.
Starting point is 00:47:01 Can't tell you. You get at least one, right? Yeah. Lawyer-s-moyer. I'm calling the phone call? I'm calling the commission. To put the roster in. Yeah, be like, oh, dude, you got to set that thing up for me.
Starting point is 00:47:10 I'm not going to make it this week. Yeah, I mean, so how do you handle it? Obviously, some different thoughts. Midseason, you're going to be forced to kind of play maybe a roster for a missing manager until you find a replacement. I think you just set by the, take the projections of the, of the platform you're on and just do your best. As far as replacing someone, like we, we have a passionate horde of supporters of the show. We call them the Foot Clan, and we offer Foot Clanleagues.com, which is number one, we probably haven't mentioned it for a bit.
Starting point is 00:47:48 So it's a good time to bring it up of the, it's a great place to meet people because you're like, oh, I want to do this league. I want a dynasty league or I want another keeper league. Foot Clan Leagues, these people are passionate about fantasy football. It's also a good place to find someone to take over your orphaned dynasty roster. Yeah, and you can go to Footclanleagues.com. It'll connect you right with that Discord server that we have. It's easy to jump on there.
Starting point is 00:48:14 I think there's about 5,000 people online right now. 60,000 are a member of that group. So, yeah, you want to find somebody that's going to kind of commit some time and make the league fun. And if you, you know, if you need to, like if you have multiple people drop out, sometimes it's better to just play the league with two less managers if you can't find two committed people to join. Okay, I don't know if Jason has an answer for this one. Joe writes in, what NFL coach would be the worst fantasy football manager and why? What NFL coach would be the worst fantasy football manager? Hmm
Starting point is 00:48:48 What does it take to be a good fantasy football manager that a coach doesn't have? Because I think the OCD coaches would do great. I think Sean McVeigh would dominate a fantasy football. I think it's just a matter of... Dan Quinn with the backwards hat, you think he's taking care of fantasy? Yeah, he would crush. Oh, really?
Starting point is 00:49:04 Yeah, I think he'd be fine. I want to know who's... Let me see you with the backwards hat. Let me just confirm. Well, it's not just... If you look like you could handle your roster. It's not just, oh, Colin Coward is furious right now. You should maybe do a little Dan Quinn Halloween.
Starting point is 00:49:18 You know what? I'm going to tell you something. I heard Dan Campbell who would crush. Oh. Now you know. Dan Quinn's a pretty good answer. Oh, is a bad manager? Yeah, you don't look like a guy right now that could handle the roster.
Starting point is 00:49:32 It's. It's Arthur. Yeah, he's just not a head coach right now. I don't think Tomlin would freaking, he would, he wouldn't do nothing. No, he'd set it and let it ride. Yeah. yeah he'd auto draft yeah he's like but you know he'd be fine at the end of the year he's that yeah yeah that's like he'd get in the playoffs you made no transactions you did nothing why are you
Starting point is 00:49:55 in the playoff it would just be he'd lose week one in the playoffs every time yes as he does uh all right uh jason maybe this is a good one for you alec wants to know you can only draft one kyle pits or troy franklin i mean it's kyle pitts come on it's kyle pitts but also What if it was like Troy Franklin or Lil Bill? Oh, it's definitely Lil Bill. Who's Lil Bill? Bill Crosky.
Starting point is 00:50:24 Oh, thank you. Bill Crosky once counted to infinity. I don't know if I enjoy the joke myself as much or just hearing Alborna lose it every time you say one. Tomorrow we have a mock draft episode. so do not miss it busts episode coming up next week bold predictions time machine MVP shows so much going on we want to wish you a lot of luck heading into the weekend as well and make sure you have the ultimate draft kit make sure you join the megalible and one of the cool things that we do i
Starting point is 00:50:56 don't know if we mentioned it recently but we do give you a dollar for dollar credit so if you've bought the udk and you want to be an ultimate foot clan member which is a year round subscription one price for the entire year it's less than 40 cents a day it gives you every premium product that we have and we will credit your full UDK cost towards an ultimate subscription. So if you want to never worry about another separate purchase or what's in what premium package, we made this super easy last year. Autopilot forever. And it's going to have all of our in-season resources. You've got the ultimate dashboard for in-season stuff, which we keep adding to. We're adding trade stuff this year. Manage all your leagues. It's a really good platform. You get it all. Yeah. So if you want to
Starting point is 00:51:38 sign up to join thefoot.com and as long as you're logged in on the website, it'll automatically apply the credit for your UDK if you want to do that. Otherwise, if you just want the UDK, that's Ultimate DraftKit.com. That'll do it for today's show. Shout out to the cackling deucers over there. Thanks for holding it down today. We'll be back with another episode tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com.
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