Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Early Breakouts & Sleepers - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/12

Episode Date: June 12, 2025

Fantasy Football show for June 12, 2025. Breakout and sleeper picks for the 2025 fantasy football season! Andy, Mike, and Jason each pick a player that is set up to be a big-time difference maker! Plus, forgotten players in fantasy football drafts that could be late round gold.  Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.2025 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com(00:00) Introduction(05:07) NFL News(16:16) Fantasy Football Breakouts(17:00) Josh Downs (24:13) Kaleb Johnson(29:38) Jameson Willliams(32:50) Fantasy Football Sleepers(33:00) Ben Sinnott(40:09) Cedric Tillman (45:00) Hollywood BrownConnect with the show:Subscribe on YouTubeVisit us on the WebSupport the ShowFollow on XFollow on InstagramJoin our Discord

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Welcome in! The Fantasy Footballers, Jason Moore, Mike Wright, I'm Andy Holloway. Thursday, June 12th. Our world out here. While focused on fantasy, football has yet to be entirely engulfed in flames in Arizona. The summer has been mild so far. Wait till this weekend. Yeah. But the time it's almost over. It's almost over. Yeah, it's all right.

But we are happy to be with you. We got early breakouts, early sleeper pics on today's episode. Always a fun show. Got a little bit of NFL news that broke right after we recorded yesterday to talk about, which means I mean, it's the kind of news that drives us back into the UDK 2025 projections and we made some changes. And that is a result of the Nick Chubb signing but also the news we'll talk about momentarily. J.K. Dobbins has found a new home in the NFL.

That was a real fast moment. Well see, Mike, I didn't say where. The where is later. Okay, okay. I can say the name. It's just a setup. This is a tease. Yeah, I was doing it real smart like. I thought we were just moving right into it.

No, no, no, I haven't hit a drop. Sign with the Broncos. I couldn't wait. I couldn't wait, man, it was the Broncos. You spoiled it. They all turned off the show. Yeah, the show that turned it off. Oh man.

He did, he signed with the Broncos. So we tweaked some of our, our projections for 2025. But we're not going to say who yet. The projections? Yeah. Was it RJ Harvey? Michael. Oh, I guess that's a good guess. Crap. We don't have anything left. That's it guys. The show's done. We got stuff. I am juiced. Are you? Of course he is. Mike Sleeper is...

Troutman? It's that level, baby. Jarwin? The most perfect Mike Sleeper ever and I'm thrilled about it. What I like about this, the UDK, we got Sleepers in there, for the most part, those, we try our best to have those be truly consensus picks. Yes, that we share, we either, at a minimum, two-thirds of us strongly feel a certain way. Sometimes, yeah, sometimes it's just the two of us, and usually we'll note that. But like these shows, it's just, I get to come in with all my my you know conspiracy theories of who I think is gonna be a good player this year you don't need any agreement

from us right I just get to say it and that's coming no one can stop me that's coming soon if you don't blurt it out well that'll come out that'll come up during the segment just hold on you can follow us on X at the FF Ballers, Jason at Jason FFL, Mike at FF Hitman. I'm at Andy Holloway. You can watch the show over on YouTube, youtube.com slash the fantasy footballers. Jason is wearing blue head to toe today. A little too much blue. Yeah. I think it was more, it was a little too one shade today. Just, uh, no, you're like, you're walking multiple shades of blue. You walk into the hardware store and you pick up one of those like, paint cards.

Yeah, you're checking four boxes. Four tiers. You're not in a matched uni. No, but it is four shades. You are just big blue today. Yeah, and YouTube, you can only see top half. Yeah, but it's everywhere. We even confirmed the underpants were Navy as well.

Underpants are blue. That was an accident, but sometimes, sometimes magic just happens. We even confirmed the underpants were Navy as well. That was an accident, but sometimes magic just happens. It used to be all black, so you are blue as a step up. The Ultimate Draft Kit available at ultimatedraftkit.com, like we said, updated as of this morning with some recent news and updated all the time. All of our consensus sleepers, breakouts, bus values, all the video player profiles, the draft analyzer in the UDK Plus is coming out July 1. You'll be able to input the team you draft, get a grade, get some feedback, analysis on your team, and this year we're going to also, we're gonna add some stuff to that. We're gonna get you a grade for all your league mates as well so that you can compare

your team to theirs and you'll be able to make some decisions on trades and where your position for the season inside of the draft analyzer. So that'll be fun. All right, let's jump right into the news. News and notes from around the league. The Broncos signed J.K. Dobbins to a one-year $5.25 million contract. Incredibly J.K.

Dobbins is 26 years old. Incredibly he ran for 905 yards, nine rushing touchdowns. So that is a 4.6 per carry clip, despite missing four full games last year. 260 of his yards were in two games. Yeah. He started the season on fire. Yeah. That being said, he is a clear, I believe,

upgrade over both Audrick Estimé and McLaughlin. Like this is, he is, you know, a $5 million contract, he's coming to play. I'm concerned it's a problem. You're saying it's a problem for RJ Harvey. No it is, I think it is a problem for Harvey. Because Harvey. This is how big of a problem.

How much does Dobbins weigh? We got a. 215, yeah I mean. He's thick. We know already that Sean Payton is gonna play a group of guys. Yeah. And he was willing to go through McLaughlin and Gervonta and Estimé and Beatty, like four guys played last year. Maybe not only four, there might have been a day. Thank you. Oh, that's right. But day, my apologies. So you already know that. Then you compound that with,

the excitement for Harvey is based on him getting a large workload in the offense, which seemed very easy to do, at least when compared, you know, Nomor Javante and McLaughlin, we know what he is, and then it's just estimated to compete with. And you're kind of like, okay, Harvey's probably pretty secure in a workload.

But now, because you combine combine Dobbins production last year, the contract isn't nothing. And you combine that with the fact that Harvey was not this like unanimous top targeted talent at running back. He was a surprise from Denver. And then you're like now hearing news that maybe Dobbins is gonna fill a role on third down. Yeah. Which seems like a real problem. So for I think all of us, still excited about Harvey in the long term being the guy, even in the short term having a big role, but there's still there's just more murky. Yeah there's I mean it was a clear path. That's why there was a lot of excitement for RJ Harvey. I would still say that RJ Harvey is coming in here

as the current version JK One leg is not as explosive a player as Harvey. So all of these rookies outside of Ash and Gentie have someone else to compete with. It is now a more difficult job for RJ Harvey, but they all, you know, Amarian Hampton has Najee, Trayvon Henderson is, you know, going in there where you've got Ra'mondra. You just have to basically accept that it might be a slow start for some of these rookies, but all of

these rookies are pretty much better than their veteran counterparts on their roster. So I'm not going to completely shy away from RJ Harvey because of this news. I mean, we'll have to see where he settles. There was a small tick down for us, I think. I think his ADP is at RB24. For me, he's at 27, probably similarly placed. For you guys, I'm not sure. But yeah, I'm a little bit lower than that. It's just the who, which, what are the roles?

How are these split up? Is Dobbins the grinder on first and second down, then Harvey's the pass catcher? Is it flipped of that? Because they both have skill sets to do it, and I don't think that this will do drive by drive. If you told me that the team was going to give Estime a bunch of carries,

I wouldn't say that's going to work for them. If you told me that they were going to give McLaughlin a ton of carries, I wouldn't say that's gonna work for them. If you told me that they were gonna give Mc, you know, McLaughlin a ton of carries, I'd say that probably doesn't work for them. With Dobbins, there's a chance it just works. There's a chance it works in the offense. And because that chance exists, and Harvey's a rookie who has to establish himself

and be able to pass protect, it just throws a little bit more concern in there for me in year one. Yeah, and I mean, you are, so what is it? 2023, that's when Dobbins tore his Achilles. Now he missed another four games this year with an MCL spring, but I'm saying he is, I think there's, like there is a world

where he was young enough that he comes back from the Achilles injury, which is a destroyer of careers. But man, it's a really tough situation. What do you believe? How much does J.K. Dobbins have left? Is he actually going to be back? How many legs? Right, that's the question. If he's back to J.K. two legs. That's a big problem for Harvey Maybe there is also the world here where Audra Castamange, Leo McLaughlin has seen last year aren't it They aren't good enough for this offense And so they go out they draft a running back and they sign a running back and now it's these two guys if it's four guys

Playing and really all mixing in it's gonna be terrible JK Dobbins was 3.8 a carry after the first two games of the season. Right. So those two were incredible, but the rest of the way, the reason the Chargers went out and got Najee and Hampton and didn't just bring Dobbins back was because they saw a declining player. They should get compensation now for Dobbins signing. Because it was an undrafted tender, so I don't think it's anything Tyree kill caught passes during individual drills

first time since wrist surgery and had been reported he may not catch passes till training camp so he is ahead of that schedule oh my gosh I forgot about this we didn't even get to talk about this. Yeah, this is. Coach, Mike McDonald said Tuesday that Kenneth Walker has been limited this off season due to an ankle injury, but the running back quote should be fine. Yeah, okay. Why can't I have nice things, guys?

This is the liar liar, oh come on GIF. Like, oh come on. You can't just always do this. For this show, the breakout show, I thought about Ken Walker. I was, look, they got a fullback. They're going to run the ball more. He has obviously shown the talent,

but the dude cannot stay healthy. He just, he is not capable. You know what's a lie that he's here to do than betting on him? Betting against him? Betting against him. It's super casual over here on this side of things. Sometimes he's good, sometimes he's bad,

sometimes he's healthy, sometimes he's not. You're like minus 160 on that? I'm living life, dude. This stuff doesn't bring me down. It's just the way it is with Ken Walker. And the problem is, yeah, OK, he should be fine for regular season. But the head coach who dealt with an injured

Kenneth Walker all last year isn't dealing with an injured Kenneth Walker in the off season while other running backs get play, while other running backs get opportunity. So it's discouraging. I hate it. And it makes it a rough bet. Like I don't know, in one of our mocks

you ended up CMC Ken Walker, that's a torture chamber to me. That's a torture chamber. As of right now, yeah. I mean, it could be cool. Yeah. But it's of fear and wondering what's gonna happen, that's just scary to me. Colson Loveland, rookie tight end, first round tight end.

Ben Johnson came out and said he isn't sure if he'll be a full go for the started training camp, which a bummer. Yeah it is a big bummer. If you saw the the so this is the second rookie he's been conversing about from the podium injured Luther Burden has been injured as well their second round wide receiver pick and then Colson Loveland their top ten pick at tight end and the way that he talked about Luther Burton was frustrated, was pessimistic. It was like, look, if you're not there,

he didn't say we're moving on without you, but that was what he was describing. He's like, we're building this up. The Roman Wilson mindset. Yeah, exactly, he was frustrated. And then when you hear him talk about Colston Loveland, also a rookie, also not able to do the things He's like, ah, he's gonna be good. He's good

You know, it's like the difference in draft capital really matters from the team has a plan for him Well was this injury also pre dating the draft selection believe so. Yeah, so I know that he definitely injured his drafted him with the knowledge Yeah, he injured his shoulder in college, missed some games for that. I did not realize that that was just a full carryover, like drafted him currently injured. I must have missed that. There were comments from Aaron Glenn, head coach of the Jets,

about the three-headed running vet committee, just saying a lot of positive stuff about all of them. Brice Hall kind of responded and said, "'Hey, I feel like I'm a three down back. But if you watch the press conference, it didn't really seem adversarial to me. Brice Hall just seemed like he was saying, hey, I feel like I can do all that stuff.

We'll see what the offense decides to do. There was some nice conversation regarding his pass catching, not only from him. I mean, he talked about that's really important. He wants to be ready to have that three down skill set and catch the ball But then there was also some comments from Justin Fields talking about what soft hands He has like receivers hands are very good. The Jets vibes right now are very good Justin Fields Garrett Wilson. Oh man

My Garrett Wilson propaganda is flowing boys. We are having a good time My Garrett Wilson propaganda is flowing, boys. We are having a good time. We? Yeah, the Garrett Wilson truthers. We need something. I mean. You already hurt Ken Walker. Leave Garrett alone.

We just talked about Garrett Wilson. I don't think, it's tough, because it's like, I'm actually rooting for the Jets. So it is a, it is contrary to maybe how we project Justin Fields fantasy-wise. Or Garrett Wilson is projected fantasy-wise, but I want them to succeed. I'd like to see Justin Fields succeed.

We all like him coming out at Ohio State. Yeah, it would be so great if he could be Darnold. You know, if he could a former high pick that was supposed to be a franchise quarterback, kind of been through the ringer, gone to a couple of teams, did whatever he needed to do. I mean, he was four and two as a starter last year and then got replaced for Russell Wilson. If he actually just comes in this year and is good, like, you know, just an average quarterback, that would be awesome.

Yeah, I mean, we've seen it, Geno Smith, you know, but the gap from what he's produced in the passing game and where he needs to get to, to be super fantasy relevant to me for Garrett Wilson and company, it would be something new. And that's possible, but it's just not, I think, a great bet, but that's me personally. But the vibes are good. I'm excited about it.

We'll take a break, unless you guys have any other news that has come out. Anything new over there? I don't think so. All right. We'll take a break and we'll jump into some early breakout selections. ["Breakouts"] All right, we're gonna each select one of our own, our own breakout picks here, and we define a breakout as a fantasy player

that is primed to become a fantasy darling, somebody that has shown flashes or signs of success, and we think with another year under their belt could emerge as one of those surprise seasons or make a tier jump, right? If you talk about tier-based rankings and drafting, maybe you get an incredible season out of this guy. Yeah, who is not currently being drafted as a star,

who next year will be? So we've each picked a name to throw out there, and Mike, I'm gonna let you start. Oh! I'm gonna let you start, and I am super in on this name. Hey! I have, I saw the name in here earlier today, didn't know who you were gonna go with. It surprised me a little bit,

but it's a name that deserves more attention on the show. And I made like five trade offers for this guy in Dynasty. Over the last week, got declined on all of them, offered Kyle Pitts straight up for this guy got But go ahead Mike It's a player who is ADP wise going much later We're talking on underdog wide receiver 48 and over then on sleeper currently wide receiver 46 in the ninth round it is Josh Downs from the

Indianapolis Colts. And you got a... Wide receiver. Yeah, and look, I get it. The quarterback situation, that's where you kind of have to start the conversation with the Colts. We don't know what it is for sure. With the news of Anthony Richardson's shoulder being a problem already and they're saying hey you know heading into training camp we hope he's good there I I haven't made an

official switch on my projections yet but like it it's feeling like it's gonna be Daniel Jones which to me that's already a much better situation for Josh Downs but the true fact is Josh Downs with Anthony Richardson last year in games with Richardson and games without him. He was actually the same fantasy points per game. So it was Anthony Richardson didn't destroy the value of Josh Downs. So remember the story of him. He's a third round draft pick. So it's a day two guy.

He's not 24 yet. And we had a stretch. We had an eight game stretch weeks, four through 11, where he was the wide receiver eight over that time span. And that's, that's a good amount of games for the, especially the environment he was in. And then looking forward for this year, the most stable statistics for wide receivers, there were more talking talking about fantasy points repeating, you know, it's targets.

That's not wild to say, but it actually like, that is the number one correlated metric of next year's future success. But the overall, the most predictive stats are target share, first downs and first read target percentage. And Josh Downs usage last year is that of a wide receiver one. His target share 26%. It's right on par with Jamar Chase. Targeted on nearly 30% of his routes. That's right by Drake London. 30% of Indianapolis' first read

targets went to Josh Downs. That's the number that CD Lamb was just at. Yards per route run right next to Malik neighbors. 11.4% of his routes are first downs. That's right next to Lad McConkie's number of 11.6. Like he has all of these markers and look, I'm not saying that Josh Downs is turning into those guys, but it's saying his usage and things that often project what success will be coming, he's right up there with some big boy names. He's on a team and his ADP is being impacted in part by the quarterback controversy.

Yes. He's on a team though where the headline was like Anthony Richards' failure last year and the team's failure, where Shane Steichen was under the gun. And it was lost, how valuable Josh Downs was at times. And for me, he passes the eye test with flying colors. Yes, he does. He to me looks like their best receiver. I mean, I've never been a huge Michael Pittman fan, but I think Josh Downs is their most versatile receiver that brings the most to

the table. So, I like Josh Downs. I think he's a good player. I don't know, you know, when we talk about breakout, like what is, you know, what, how high can you break out? I see him and coming out of college, these guys were often linked together because of their size and the same, the same draft year. But Zay Flowers is like he, Zay, I think that's what Josh Downs can become. A very solid wide receiver too, who is consistent, great for their offense,

but similar to the conversation we were having about Zay Flowers recently, I don't know, you know, the touchdown utilization, especially with Tyler Warren here now, as a bigger bodied end zone target. What's Zay Flowers' ADP? Oh, that's the best part. They are much different and I can tell you. More points per game for Downs than Flowers. Yeah, in my notes, you know,

he had the same points per game as DK Metcalfe and Tyreek Hill. He had more points per game than Zay Flowers and Jaden Reid. And again, looking at trying to predict, project what's going to happen next year. Over the last decade, looking at year two wide receivers who averaged seven and a half targets per game, like Josh Downs, who were a day one or day two pick, like Josh Downs, into year three, what happened with those players? What that means, seven and a half targets per game is, that's wild. Those guys who meet those two criteria 70% of them were top 24 wide receivers in year three and 46% of them made the jump into being a top 12 guy

I think he's such a good bet to out produce where he's going. I mean to me Like I I just said is a flowers and Josh Downs. They are so similar I mean obviously the Baltimore Ravens have a better offense But they also have more other targets to throw to. But four rounds of fantasy football draft. Yeah, I mean, you're talking about a fifth round pick. In the fifth, he's the player 51 on average, Zay Flowers, or player 103rd drafted Josh Downs,

and they probably both finished near each other. They almost put up the same numbers last year. Yeah. And Josh Downs missed three games due to injury. So he was 72, 803, and 5. Flowers are 74, 1059, and 4. More yardage. Three more games played.

And let's say it is Daniel Jones. I mean, recall the beginning of last year when it was Daniel Jones. They were like, is it going to work for Malik Neighbors? And the answer was, he's just going to throw him the ball on every single play, and Malik Nabors is going to look like an absolute dominant fantasy football pick.

So I'm in on Josh Downs. He's a player who's kind of just been floating nebulously where You can talk about him every day on this show for the next two months, and he will not move in ADP. Right. And this guy is moving up, and in rankings he's not gonna be that high for me. You know, this is a, taking a swing at who can

really make a jump, not just a median outcome. So I think that he is moving up tremendously of someone who I will be targeting. Of not just like, oh, I'll take Josh Downs here. No, I'm going to, you know what? In the eighth, I'll take Josh Downs. I think that I think he is looking like a more and more attractive draft pick. All right, Jay, I'm going to, since I selected a wide receiver, I'm going to let you go first because you chose a running back for your breakout.

Okay. Well, I sure did. I chose a player that I really believe in. I think he's currently my favorite rookie running back to draft based on where they're going. Obviously, I mean, Gentie. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think he's gonna break out. But Caleb Johnson is not getting the run that Omarion Hampton is, who's fighting with Najee Harris.

Caleb Johnson, the rookie running back for the Pittsburgh Steelers, he really got kicked in the junk at the combine, man. He was talked about with all the big boys. Not really though, right? That was more of a figurative thing? It was figurative, yeah. Also, your numbers? Was it literal?

Your numbers will go down. Yeah, you try and run a 40 after someone gives you a Rochambeau. I will not. But Caleb Johnson, as a prospect, I absolutely adored him. I loved his film.

Patient, good vision, and then explosive. Had so many breakaway runs on film. And he checks basically every single box that we care about for fantasy football metrics from a production standpoint. All of the things you care about for future RB 1s and fantasy, he has them. He had a whopping 43% of Iowa's total yardage last year by himself as a running back. That is a 52% dominator rating, which is better

than every other running back, including Ashton Gentey. He's also he's a solid veteran style mature player. He didn't fumble the ball once. Mike Tomlin says this was an easy evaluation for him. He was his type of player. He plays an NFL type of scheme and he's already in that black and gold. I think he's gonna come in and be very good. Now his biggest wrench to fantasy success for truly breaking out is Jalen Warren. Yeah. I mean. Which is, I mean it is a problem for me.

I'm really split on Caleb. Sure. Because I feel like I can make one argument to myself where like if you gave Caleb first and second down and told him to be nausea and don't play third down, I think he could still be really productive for fantasy. My biggest concern is Warren is an elite pass blocker. Caleb was a below average pass blocker in college and a below average pass catcher in college

in terms of the amount of targets relative to the mean. If you look at the numbers, he was below average. So he's come out and talked about that, what his weaknesses in his game is, being a pass blocker, being able to catch the football on a consistent basis, those are the two areas that worry me, because if you don't give him third down or he doesn't get, if he gets an Aaron Rodgers glance

at the wrong direction. Yeah, Aaron Rodgers can scare you if you get on his, yeah, if you get on his bad side. He's not as great a pass protector. In fact, that's what they are working on the most in camp right now, which to me is good news in the sense that they want him out there as a three down back at some point in time.

I would push back completely on the not a good pass catcher. He was very good. His production profile and utilization for the percentage of targets on this team that went to him, yardage that went to him, is a different system, but he was very involved in the past catching game. This is a back that Andy,

you are probably the least optimistic for or the most concerned with the opportunities. You have him statted for the fewest opportunities probably the least optimistic for or the most concerned with the opportunities, you have him statted for the fewest opportunities of the three of us, which is 251 combined opportunities between rushing and passing. But here is a perfect example of how he could break out. 251 opportunities, very, very much in the realm of possibility here. I mean, you had Najee Harris averaging 319 opportunities. He's gone. And three of those seasons, Jalen

Warren was there. So 250. Let's take it down to 220. Since 2013, every single rookie running back drafted on day two, who gets 220 opportunities, finished as a top 25 running back. He's not being drafted there. So I think that his, I feel like he is a relatively safe but with a monstrous boom potential. We've got to keep in mind that the system he is going into is one that wants to run the ball, not just Mike Tomlin, but also Arthur Smith. Arthur Smith, you're talking about five of the last six years, he's top 10 in rushing attempts. And not just top

10, he was number two in Tennessee. He number one number three and number four the last three years in rushing attempts and And two of those one was last year with Naji one was with Tyler Algear when he was the number one rushing attempt in the league So they're going to have opportunities for him, and I just think his explosive nature He's a young player and everything right now is positive from OTAs. In fact It was the Pittsburgh Gazette I believe said he was the rookie that stood out the most in camp based on the opportunities that they're seeing him get so I'm very bullish on him. I liked him as a prospect

I think he lands in a good situation and all the I love I mean one of my favorite things to do here is just Be Smirch Aaron Rodgers But it is it's mostly for fun. Like I enjoy it. Because yeah, because you have a good time doing it. I'm not taking that away from myself. Okay. I was a little concerned for you. I will allow myself to continue, but Aaron Rodgers passes to the running back. He's good for this offense. This could be a team that has a lot of scoring opportunities.

And so yeah, Caleb Johnson will be on a lot of my rosters. All right, probably unsurprising, especially if you watched the last accidental mock draft selection. To me, Jamison Williams stands out as kind of the premier breakout pick for my offseason. I think, you if you're unfamiliar wide receiver Detroit high draft capital One of the more interesting things we brought up lots of different reasons why Jameson Williams Has the potential to break out you saw it last year. He had big games for fantasy. This was a frequent occurrence He's a sixth round pick right now Wide receiver 30 and redraft wide receiver 24 in basketball

He's a great basketball candidate because he has those kind of breakout games that go wild He is a 200 yard potential type of player in a single game, but trying to give you a different Set of information on Jamison and why I think he's one of those breakout guys Let's take a look at the type of routes he runs and what he's most successful at. His highest percentage of runs are the highest value for fantasy. Posts, go routes, crossers. That's what he runs. That's what he's done well. He was over 50% of all routes on those three specific, the posts, the go, the crossers. The only other fantasy wide receiver that was over 50% was Tyreek Hill on those three routes. They're high value routes and they

design plays and routes to take advantage of what he does best, which is kind of like Jaylen Waddle, kind of like Tyreek Hill. If he gets downfield, he has space. That's just what he does. He has a ton of space between him and the defender and if you get the ball in his hands on time Jared Goff he runs he just run golf just needs to learn how to severely under throw the ball Yeah, can come back like Tyree kill those the two. Yeah. Yeah, he just he runs wild after after the catch So I I just think he is an elite player. I really do. Uh, we got, you know, Amon Ra has his spot and his role, but I think that there is more ceiling for Jameson Williams in this offense. The offensive coordinator, no longer Ben Johnson, it's John Morden. He's come out and

been very public about saying, look, we want to get the ball downfield more where already Jameson Williams is 50 plus percent of his routes, high value downfield routes. They were not great last year in terms of getting the ball downfield. Third lowest percentage of their attempts, 20 plus yards downfield. So for Jameson to put up over a thousand and do what he did last year with that level of efficiency on a team that just didn't prioritize downfield throwing, I think that that's interesting from the breakout projection standpoint. And look, he was the wide receiver 19 last year. So your margin for breakout, I'm talking he can get to 12, he can get to 11, he can get to 15, 14.

I think he makes a step forward this year and I don't think it's hard to do when you only had 60 or what is it? 58 catches last year. That can go way up. There's room for him. He can catch another, you know, he can be eight to 10 touchdowns on a given year and get ball, you know, he gets the ball

in the running game quite a bit. So for me, you're gonna hear me talk about him quite a bit. I like the value on a player that I think could be a wide receiver too type of guy. So Caleb Johnson, Jason, Josh, Downs, Mike, I'm gonna go with Jameson Williams for the breakout. We got Sleepers. Sleepers.

Now, do we still want me to go first, even though mine is the deepest of the Sleeps? I don't care who goes first. I've been waiting. I am the Senate. Yeah baby we are so back. If you're following me on Twitter I've sent a public apology that I have not been backing my guy Ben Sennett the Senator Washington. You better say where he plays what position. We're getting there. We're getting there. He plays tight end for the Washington commander. So this is all just projection and this is the role in that offense. Look Zach Ertz is still, they brought him back. Zach Ertz is still there. Oh look at those stats up on the screen yeah oh yeah get those up there way to go

Josh you know what you don't have targets you know it's not up there 100% catch rate for his career guys how many catches does he have yeah don't worry about that don't worry about that can't have more than five there's also one in the playoffs guys oh six yeah 100% I can't believe it I feel like that was not a stat line you wanted to throw up but I did Josh just took he just put it up there and also unfortunately we don't have Yeah, 100% catch rate. I feel like that was not a stat line you wanted to throw up on the screen. Josh just took, he just put it up there. And also, unfortunately, we don't have it up there. But 100% dog meter.

Ben Sennett is off the charts. So just, so Zach Hertz. You have been a big, a big Ben Sennett fan. Zach Hertz is still there. But here's the thing about Zach Ertz. He is the second oldest starting tight end in the league behind only Travis Kelsey. And yet last year, Zach Ertz played every single game. I cannot take that away from him. But the previous four years, he was averaging playing 11 games a year.

Zach Ertz was having a massive injury problem, especially with the Arizona Cardinals. And it's- Let's see those Ertz stats up on the screen there. You want to get those, Josh? I can tell you some of Zach Ertz's stats. He had the ninth highest red zone target share among all pass catchers.

Jaden Daniels looked for him. Then he led all tight ends. Andy, you were talking about high value routes. Zach Ertz led all tight ends with horizontal breaking routes almost 50%. These are like this is Trey McBride type of stuff and so this is a this is a projecting of... there's the Earth. Yeah imagine that's that's Ben Sinnott and the points were game. Oh my gosh that's the best analysis I've ever heard in ten years on this show. You see those stats now imagine it's the other guy. Oh my god that's the best. The point is everything that Ertz did, Ertz was very involved. Ertz is a shell of what he was. Ben Sinnett is a an up-and-coming player. He Sennett is an up and coming player.

He was the second tight end drafted two years ago. You had Brock Bowers in the first and then Ben Sennett went in the second. Let me get you going. My commander's head coach Dan Quinn said Ben Sennett has been among the young players who has stood out the most in off season practice. Yeah, he called him a leader. Says he has the potential to put up stats similar to Zach Ertz if he was indeed Zach Ertz. But I don't think any of us doubt the Senate would be productive

without Zach Ertz existence. But just to talk about how productive. I'm saying if he gets the Zach Ertz role, the thing that correlates the most to fantasy points for a tight end, wildly enough, it is athleticism. Where we overrate athletic ability for wide receivers and running backs, we get enamored by it. We love it because it just feels better. You're like, oh this player's got juice. But the things that point to a potential breakout for a fancy tight end is the 40-yard dash, the broad jump, and the vertical. In 40 time, Ben Sennett is a 74th percentile athlete. Broad jump and vertical,

so that's your short area explosiveness. Sennett was a 98th percentile athlete. He turns 23 this Saturday. Hey, happy birthday, Ben. And that's the year. That is the age that we see. Do you think he thought he'd have more than six targets by 23-J? I think he dreamed a dream.

He dreamed a dream. Yeah, we definitely did. There's no way they'll bring Zach Ertz in here, will they? Yes. A wild thing is he was helping the team. He was being a dominant blocker, which was like, that's part of his game. That's what I mean.

He is a dog. This is like George Kittle. When you go back, because obviously there's not a lot of targets to go watch of his pro production, but watching him in college, he seeks out contact. He wants to punish people. Zach Ritz wants to catch the ball and fall down. Because he's so old. In the end zone, preferably.

He would like that. So, I'm bringing this up more of as a make sure that this name is in the back of your head because as of right now is he's in a redraft. He's probably not really draftable like in a if you're playing underdog and best ball I'm gonna want to get some exposure to him. Like I said, Zach Kurttz has had an injury problem before this past year. It is obviously not the same thing,

but it is shockingly lined up to be the Trey McBride career arc of- Sent it with second round? Yep, second round pick, just like Trey McBride. Zach Ertz was in front of him for a full year and a half, just like Trey McBride. I think it's very important to this show that this works out at some point, Jason.

I do too, and it's weird because I would usually- And Cliff is involved too. I would usually really not like bringing up a tight end who had five targets in their entire rookie season that they didn't miss their entire rookie season of, but I can see the path for this. If Zach Ertz pulls something and Ben Sennett gets out there, the offense probably takes a step up. I don't think Ben Sennett is a bad player. The opportunity is

ahead of him. The truth is, it's going to take that injury, though. It will, because they brought Ertz back on purpose. Yeah, but that is what happened with Trey McBride. Like, like, Zach Ertz came back and even though Trey McBride was that dude, he, it wasn't like he wasn't that dude. Right. Zach Ertz still played ahead of him until he got injured. That's a perfect example because Zach Ertz was productive in Arizona, not nearly as good as McBride, but still took all the snaps. Right, but once, once Ertz went down, once Ertz went down in Arizona and you had a true, talented wide receiver go and play that role, that, you know, Zach once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once,

once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, once, come back with a couple more sleepers. I'll give you a chance to put your waiver wire claims in in dynasty right now. Saw somebody picking up Senate for some fab

earlier this morning. So, deep sleeper for sure, but an athletic second round tight end with upside if Ernst gets hurt. We'll be back in just a second. ["Sleeper Pick"] Jason, I'm gonna let you go. You can bring up your sleeper pic. I am now, you've mentioned his name enough to where I'm...

Oh, yes, good. I'm starting to think you were just like, this is your dude. Like, this is... Yeah. He is probably my favorite end of the draft wide receiver to get. Which is... I wanted it to be... I wanna hear it.

I wanted it to be Roman Wilson because I loved his film, but the fact that he is not establishing anything so far in his second year. Yeah, because they said Calvin Austin is the wide receiver too on this team. Exactly. Like, that's not good. But Cedric Tillman, wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns, he's going into his third season, is a good wide receiver, I believe. And I think we saw that on the

field. He reminds me a lot of Nico Collins. He is that 6'3", 215-plus pound wide receiver. He's a rare body type. And we saw a very slow career arc for Nico Collins, right? First year goes out there, plays 60% of the snaps, was on the field, did pretty much jack squat, Nico did, well it was very similar for Cedric Tillman. His rookie year went out there, he got injured, dealt with some hip stuff, but did nothing. And it just seemed like at that point both guys

were just busts, and today's modern NFL, you come out your rookie year and you're not good, you're a bust. You come out your sophomore year and you're not good, Nico wasn't good his sophomore year until the second half. The second half we started to see flashes of Nico Collins emerging. He had a stretch of games that was really special. Then all of a sudden, boom, he's Nico Collins, the fantasy superstar in his third year. With Cedric Tillman, we saw this transition

happen to him, and it happened when opportunity was given to him. Amari Cooper was traded between weeks six and seven. And then starting in week seven, until he got injured with a concussion, I mean, it's four games, but those four games were absolutely incredible. He had 300 yards, three touchdowns, he had 24 receptions in three.

Aren't you anti, Are you anti Judy? No, I'm not anti Judy. Oh, I couldn't remember which one of you were so Mike I'm I'm I know Judy. I know the anti Judy's ADP. Okay I just wanted to figure that out because I know Winston was quarterback for yes He was it is yeah, it is part of Cedric Tillman story Yes, so some of those numbers like, you know the, the pace, 1,200 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 102 receptions, those are juiced Jamis numbers. However, they weren't all Jamis.

The first game that Cedric Tillman got that snap count up, that was actually Deshaun Watson. And then Deshaun Watson got injured, and then it was Dorian Thompson Robinson. And then Dorian Thompson Robinson got injured, and then Jamis played like a couple snaps at the end of the game. So this was like, and how did he do?

He had 12 targets, he was eight for 81. I think he's a good wide receiver. And you look at this depth chart, and he is a full-time wide receiver, I believe. I think it's gonna be Jerry Judy and Cedric Tillman here. On a team that's gonna have to throw the ball so dang much. Now, the obvious bad situation here is, who's the quarterback?

I don't know, Kenny Pickett's not going to make a superstar. Now, if it's Joe Flacco, heck yeah, man. We don't know yet. This early, we're not sure who it's going to be. Maybe one of the rookies can step up. But I do know that he's going to be on the field in every two wide receiver set. I do believe he is a good wide receiver. I think this team is going to be throwing the ball a lot. Last year, I believe they were number one. So it's like this is a situation, an option, a young rising player where he missed once he got concussed at the end of his sophomore season last year, they shut him

down. They didn't bring him back. They were playing for, you know, a quarterback pick in the draft, as high as they could get. And so they just, they shut them down, but I don't think that was like a catastrophic injury. I don't look at it the same as Chris Olave, who's had so many concussions that I worry every time he gets on the field. So if you've got talent and opportunity, youth size, this is a pretty explosive athlete, 85th percentile explosion rate as a big bodied

wide receiver. I really like Cedric Tillman and I think he did level up. I think we saw the level up, but because of the injury he didn't get a chance to just cement that. So he's last round in your fantasy picks. If he played the rest of last season, I feel like he'd be right there with Jerry Judy, because when they were both playing together, he was right there with Jerry Judy. Yeah, they were both very productive. Yeah, it'll be, I forgot it was a sophomore season.

Yeah, it feels like forever. It felt like a rookie season. Yeah, that's because he did nothing in his rookie year. I realized while you're talking, and again, a sleeper is somebody that I think we would categorize as maybe you didn't see it coming. Right. Because this is supposed to be like the,

if everybody saw it coming, their draft capital, they'd be drafted, you know, Cedric Tumman's undrafted and redrafted right now, Ben Sennett's undrafted and redrafted right now. Ben Sennett's undrafted and redrafted. I realized about halfway through you guys talking, I don't even want to talk about my sleeper pick. But I think it's because of the fact that he fits that category of just like kind of,

I mean he is drafted technically, he's about a 13th round pick. But I mean, I'm not, we've said so many negative things about the Chiefs passing game. And we haven't really had value in the Chiefs passing game other than a couple games of Rashi Rice and a few games of Worthy, but a lot of seasons without Tyree Kill where we're going, okay, Juju caught a touchdown

and Watson caught a touchdown and oh gosh, now Noah Gray is catching touchdowns in this game, in that game but. So who is your not sleeper? My not sleeper that I don't wanna talk about is Hollywood Brown. Oh dude, I am intrigued. Hollywood Brown. I am intrigued. I am very like a hard stance of I am Rashid Rice over worthy, but I think Hollywood Brown here sitting at the end of drafts. There's Hollywood drop.

We don't have many opportunities to play this. That still exists. He's probably in the wrong jersey. Holy Lord though, look at those stats. So, 91 receiving, Ben Sinnott wishes he had 91 yards on the year. Well, Hollywood barely played last year. He was the free agent signing. This segment brought to you by Ambien, this is, we sleeping. Yeah, I mean, he barely played. We're just getting out in front.

So he played, here's what he did last year, he played two games and he had 27 and 40% of the SNAS. He basically was non-existent. He got hurt in training camp, played two games for the Chiefs, and Rashi Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Hollywood never played a single game together. That never happened.

So we don't know what it's gonna be like in Kansas City. And the most likely outcome here is that Hollywood Brown will have four games where he pops off for a big play and be irrelevant. However, at this stage of his career, he is 28 years old and he is, I believe, still the most polished of all the receivers that they have. Yeah, he probably is.

Rashi Rice has his thing, and he does it well. He's a gadget player. He's very good at it. And worthy, similarly, he can run in a straight line, he will mess up catching by the sideline, but he will take a screen pass to the house, and it's so, like those are the two athletically gifted guys.

But a pure wide receiver standpoint, please don't forget how talented Hollywood Brown was in Baltimore and Arizona in that capacity. And they paid him last year. He finally gets to play with him this year. You know, Patrick Mahomes came out and said that the role would be expanded. It was really hard when you start in week 16 or whatever for the very first time to give that guy a role in the offense. It's just almost impossible to do. And they were going for a third straight Super Bowl. But I think this is a super late round. You know, we always talk about drafting a guy

and see what happens for the first couple weeks in case you need to drop him and use it on the waiver wire. If you take Hollywood and you go out there, and this is an 80, 90% snap wide receiver, Hopkins is gone, right? He's competing with Rashi Rice, who's coming back, will have a role, a declining Kelsey, worthy. I just want to see what happens. Here's what needs to happen, genuinely. They need to start the progress of Kelsey's retirement.

I love Travis Kelsey. Zeus is awesome. He's an all-timer. But they need to do what Baltimore did with Mark Andrews and say, you know what, it's not working as well to make him the 25% target share. Let's use them around the goal line, that's fine, but they need to stop with the 24% target share to Travis Kelsey and use these other wide receivers. Let Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown and Rushie Rice go out there because you know Patrick Mahomes can go out and throw for 40 touchdowns and have a great offense, but I think they need those targets to go away from Kelsey for this because we all want the Chief's offense to be great.

We want to see something exciting and fun and downfield. I think they have the humans to do it. It's just will they choose to throw to them because it's a lot riskier to throw downfield to Hollywood than a quick little short dump off to Kelsey. Well, they finally, I agree with you, I think the other personnel and I think Hollywood on the field at a minimum helps everybody else. Like if you, if he's out there and he can get downfield, look they were 29th in the league in market share to wide receivers. So they didn't throw it to the wide. That was 50% of all.

That's what I want to see change. 50% of all targets. The two appearances he actually had, week 16, he is on the field for 27% of the offensive snaps, and he got eight targets. The next week he's on the field for 40% of the offensive snaps, and he got seven targets. He got eight targets and 27% of the snaps. That is where it is intriguing to me of real, real small sample and the playoff run.

He wasn't used in the Houston game and then five targets and six targets. I was just gonna look that up. It didn't fully, it didn't go from that into an explosion, but I feel like there's something to that. Yeah, it's targets per route run on net. Oh, it's gotta be elite. Through the roof, so look, sleeper, right?

And like I said, nobody. 43% target per route run in those games. I mean, that is. Yeah, and you saw it. I mean, you went out there and it was like he was being targeted all over the place, so. Because they have weapons, but you still have to have a wide receiver on the tee.

I just don't know how Andy Reid's gonna move the chess pieces. We don't know what Kelsey still has, and Gray and Worthy and Rice, and you know, the Juju's there, I mean it's. That's weird that Juju's still there. I know, I know. Why?

Well, he needs to be somewhere, doesn't he? I don't know, but there's this. What a, wait a, what a. Breaking news. Just since we had all the RJ Harvey talk, an elite quote here from Sean Payton on RJ Harvey. Oh boy. He's looked good with his receiving, but hasn't earned his Joker wings yet. Joker wings?

Yeah, you know Sean Payton is always talking about the Joker. Who's going to be the Joker in the offense? Sean Payton better have an entire back piece of a Joker card. The way that this guy is like... We know who the Joker is. Yeah, he's the Joker. Sean Payton. Let's, let's, uh, let me tell you some more wide receivers on the Chiefs. Okay. So they got Juju. They got Jalen Royals.

Who's been... New draft pick. I mean, at least offseason stuff. His name's coming up. Would you believe that Justin Ross is still on the roster? Of course? Yeah 53 about Sky more Come on for real. Yeah, I do what about what about former? Superstar Taekwon Thornton Thornton Thornton. He's got that weird in in there I don't know why they because he's a thorn in the butt cheeks of this yeah yeah in other words rice worthy in Hollywood are the main guys I mean they have a bunch of nothing but Justin, yeah. Justin, yeah. Oh, okay. I wasn't sure if it was Hopkins. We all have our guys. Who it was.

Yeah, yeah. Leave us alone. Okay, well, there you go. There's some deep sleepers to annoying, kind of hesitant dimension sleepers there for you. Well, we've got all of our consensus sleepers in the UDK. We're always keeping that up to date. So, you know, sleepers are really, really important to get a few right.

You're not gonna get most of them right. There's a reason that Cedric Tillman is being drafted in the 19th round, which is more than most rounds in your drafts, but when you get those right and you get that free money, it takes you to the playoffs. Yeah, and you do wanna, in the later rounds, you wanna give yourself a shot at a week one or two explosion from those players so you can leverage that

and trade, even if you don't use them. Because I love, the first thing I wanna do is I don't wanna drop one of my picks to go get a waiver wire guy. I wanna trade two of my players for one, and then go get a waiver wire guy, and leverage that first week of you know whether Tillman had a break maybe Tillman has two touchdowns

in week one maybe Hollywood catches a bomb in week one oh he's the guy I don't know if I'll believe he's the guy after one week but I sure as heck will tell people I do so that is gonna do it. This guy's so good for your team. Remember I mentioned him on the sleeper episode? But UltimateDraftKid.com if you want to check out all of the other breakouts and sleepers and values and busts that we've picked together and we'll get into an early values and bust show

that's coming up on our next episode. We'll do some underrated, overrated and an AMA episode, another mock draft all on the docket very very soon. So thanks for tuning in Thanks for listening. Make sure you click that follow button on Spotify Apple wherever you're listening helps the show out We'll catch you next time. Goodbye Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at theFFBallers.