Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Early Busts + Draft Values - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/17

Episode Date: June 17, 2025

Fantasy Football show for June 17, 2025. Bust and value picks for the upcoming fantasy football season! Andy, Mike, and Jason each pick players they are worried about. Plus, players who look like major values in 2025 fantasy football drafts! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.2025 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com(00:00) Introduction(03:10) NFL News(11:09) Fantasy Football Busts(12:22) Patrick Mahomes(19:32) Cooper Kupp(26:11) David Montgomery(34:20) Fantasy Football Values(35:40) Joe Mixon(41:46) Travis Etienne(48:26) George PickensConnect with the show:Subscribe on YouTubeVisit us on the WebSupport the ShowFollow on XFollow on InstagramJoin our Discord

Hey, this is Patrick Mahomes, quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers back again. Mike the Fantasy Hitman, Jason Moore in the building. I'm Andy Holloway and it is Tuesday, June 17th. It is hot here in the valley of the sun. Finally, very, very, very hot. Children, if you're outside for hours. We named our basketball team just the Suns.

Yeah, put sunscreen on. Oh yeah, Jason is... It's a little hard to tell right now, powdered up, but I am burnt. My back is burnt. We all... How many sunburns a year do you average? Jason's got the most. One.

Jason's got the most. One, one. Jason's got the most. Probably one and a half. Every summer, you need to be reminded how terrible, you're like, you think, it's not gonna happen this time. He thought maybe Father's Day, celebrating that, you could get out of it by being a dad. Yeah, swimming with the kids.

At like noon. Right. At 115 degrees out. Yeah. And you're paying the price. Oh yeah. My back hurts. Welcome in one and all.

We've got early values and bust picks on the show today. We don't want you to get burned, so. Okay, well done. Our bust picks. And so we'll break those down. We've each picked a name for each of those categories, continuing what we did with sleepers and breakouts. On the last episode of the show,

we got some news to catch you up on as well. You can follow us over on Spotify and Apple, the podcast. Click that button so that the latest episode shows up in your pocket. You can watch the show, youtube.com slash The Fantasy Footballers, subscribe, click that bell. We are a couple weeks out from the draft analyzer officially joining the Ultimate Draft Kit July 1st

where you can import your draft and get a grade and a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses of your team, have a plan of attack for the season. UltimateDraftKit.com you can get over there right now. Check all of the perks and things that will help you with your draft. What else is going on? I think we're gonna skip the quick question today and jump right into some news. Nice. News and notes from around the league. Okay, apparently the Saints have signed Cam Akers. Okay. Nine lives, that one.

This kind of sucks a little bit just because, I mean, I know the team, Kendra Miller, you know, seven strikes you're out type of situation, but Devin Neal was a running back that I know both myself and Mike really liked pre-draft process. After the NFL draft, it's like, well, he, was he like a sixth round pick? Yeah, it was the third day. So it was like, it just didn't matter, it's not gonna work out, but I still liked the talent.

And the fact that there was just Kamara there and then really not much else, I was like, that's not the worst landing spot. But now that Cam Akers is here. I still have Clyde on my Dino Squad. Cam Akers, Clyde Edwards, Allaire, Devon Neal, Kendra Miller, Alvin Kamara. I mean, it's, that's a mess. It is a mess of knowing who to roster for an insurance. Beyond Kamara, yeah. James Cook fully participated in the three-day mandatory minicamp.

It's good. It is mandatory. It's good. It is mandatory. Still hasn't been paid. Anthony Richardson, the latest report from Ian Rappaport, quote, expected to be fine by the beginning of training camp in July. Just really meaning he doesn't need surgery. Well this is, I mean it seemed like there was a fear. This has been kind of one of those snip snap snip snap. I still have fear So he was told he doesn't need surgery went to get a second opinion that second backup opinion confirmed

Yeah, you're good. So I think what they're trying to tell Anthony Richardson is you need you need play through some pain It's the opposite of Mac Jones he's like most, most guys would play through this, but I really want the surgery. He was the quarterback that walked off when he was tired. Yes, he took himself out of the game. I forgot about that. He's like, why weren't you there on that down? He's like, I was tired. You're the quarterback. You don't get to walk to the sideline and let the backup come in. Never before seen. Yeah, that was weird. Yeah, so I don't know, man.

Uh-oh. But I guess it's good news. Yeah, I guess. It's got a chance to win the job still, although it does sound like it's almost an uphill battle right now. Well, Mike brought up Josh Downs as a sleeper candidate who is really undervalued in drafts right now and I

think that's true of whatever quarterback starts there I don't think that's gonna play a part in I think you're in on down yeah I mean I would if if Josh Downs is my target I'd rather have Daniel Jones throwing in the ball but if it's Richardson okay Jeremy Fowler reporting that Travis Kelsey is down 25 pounds from last season. Feels like a lot. 25? He did. I mean he looked slow last year but we all just chalked it up to age I think. Yeah I mean I don't have the data but perhaps was he up 25 last year? It's possible. This would be great news then. Coming off a second Super Bowl I could put 25 on after a Super Bowl.

Oh, I could, yeah. Dad? I could even after missing the playoffs. No problem. Dad is a lot. It's a lot. It is a lot. I mean, obviously you've got the hopes

that it's gonna be faster and healthier. Obviously you're not losing weight at his age very easily. So he's putting in work. That's all, those are good signs. Josh Reynolds, the clear cut favorite to be the number two wide receiver in New York for the Jets, who have a bunch of names

beyond Garrett Wilson that aren't attractive for fancy. There's a lot of targets. Lazard and Corley. That are available. So yeah, 186 targets vacated by Devonte Adams and Tyler Conklin. Jack Bash, currently second year. Oh, okay, you're booing the news.

We don't like this. That I haven't said yet. The people don't like this. Preemptive boo. Jack Bash has seen the majority of his reps with the second team right now. Jacoby Myers, Trey Tucker, and is it Taekwon Thornton? No.

No. No, it's not Taekwon. It is Dante Thornton. Dante Thornton. Thornton. Thornton. It is another Thornton. Thornton.

That's why I got me. Yes, and is in the name. But the sad thing here is this is another rookie. Like, Jack Bass is a wide receiver that we really, really liked, and the opportunity here to go play that second wide receiver behind Jacoby Myers is great for a rookie, and it's kind of weird, and I think what it is is it's just position, right?

Dante Thornton is a 6'5", 200 pound wide receiver who runs 4'3", so I think they're just seeing him, they want him on the outside to stretch the field, to open things up, but it does suck that he's going to seemingly so far, so early. But right now he's running ahead of second round pick Jack Cash. There are a lot of situations where we want to see rookies get opportunities, and a bunch of more annoying veterans will get them at least to start the year.

We're talking. Yeah. Not Dante, Dante is a rookie. Well, no, I'm talking about Trey Tucker, who was an everyday starter for them. Or Tyler Lockett in Tennessee, when you'd rather see, they have three rookie wide receivers that we want to get play over there,

but instead you're gonna get snaps from Tyler Lockett. So there are just a bunch of situations like that where guys are established starters, the Jets. I mean, Josh Reynolds goes out there, he's going to be the number two. It is just part of the game and you have to trust that the young talent gets to break through at some point, but you don't always get the payoff that you want. Like Jack Bash would be a good example

of somebody you love, who you might not get to see from day one do everything that you want him to do. And you just have to hope he's not the worst case scenario, which is Jalen Polk, who might not make the team. So. Also a second round pick, and he is buried. I was just looking at. He legit might not make the team. Mm-hmm. So. Also a second round pick, and he is buried. I was just looking at- He legit might not make the Patriots.

I was looking at the depth charts, because I was curious how most people are seeing the starters, because it could go, I mean, their depth chart is absurd. They've got like eight of the same player at wide receiver, and I'm like, so is Booty the starter? Is it Pop Douglas? You know, obviously Diggs is there. Mack Hollins is there, Kendrick Bourne is there,

Javon Baker's still there. The last I saw, Jay, maybe you saw a Beat reporter was saying, so Diggs, Mack Hollins, Pop Douglas, Kyle Williams, those are considered right now the locks for the active roster everybody else is gonna be fighting for a couple spots and that's where and chiseled even got some buzz oh yeah after chiseled yeah I I hope he makes the team don't waste your time with Jalen Polk any other news that you guys

have that you want to mention mmm anything else Cedric Tillman sidelined at Browns minicamp with what is believed to be a minor injury? Yeah, but part of that report that showed up was, this is from the athletic, of saying, no, but Tillman is locked in. He's the starter. I hope so.

I know. I feel like that's like a, oh, of course. But for them to come out and say, I mean, he missed that time. He's already, he's kind of hurt again for the beat reporters to have confidence that don't worry about this. It's nice to hear.

And Brandon Bean, if you want some hype for somebody that I know Jason isn't a huge fan of, but Brandon Bean came out and said, Dalton Kincaid has added both strength and bulk to his frame this off season. It was more of an injury thing last year, which I do agree, I mean, he has struggled with that. Yeah, there was also some Bills news out about the injury for Keon Coleman last year, slowing him down.

So there's been some hype. Week nine, I think he had some sort of. Chipped bone. Yeah that's not good. I like my bones fully intact. All right let's jump right into it. Bus. All right we defined bus as not players

that are guaranteed to fail but have some things working against them They represent high risk for fantasy football players. They might look Very you know, the outside looks like an attractive situation but beware basically like guys being overdrafted or people we think have the potential to bust and let you down based on their draft position last year CJ Stroud was the name we brought up on this show. And you know, nobody really wanted to hear that. Mike kept bringing it up over and over and over again with.

It was sad to even talk about. Because he was exciting for the actual Texans and Texans fans, brought them to a playoff burst surprise win of the division. But the numbers back behind it there were a handful of elite games last year first or two years ago for Stroud but then there was a lot of mediocrity and and things didn't work out for Stroud last year for fantasy right so we got some names we're bringing up today it looks like we have a quarterback a running back in a wide

receiver where do you want to start well I guess since he opened the show, I will go ahead and continue to talk about Patrick Mahomes. Thank you for being with us, Mahomes. But you are a great quarterback. I'm not sure you are a great fantasy quarterback anymore. I do think that there will be seasons in the future. We've talked about this in the offseason. When you talk about these all-time greats, you know, Aaron Rodgers wasn't the number one quarterback for fantasy every year. He'd have down years. Tom Brady would go back and forth from completely different styles through his career,

where sometimes they had a great defense, and sometimes they had Randy Moss. So it's like, which Tom Brady are you getting? Well, right now, I think we're not getting the Patrick Mahomes that is going to be dominant for fantasy. He doesn't have his Randy Moss right now. His Tyree Kill is gone. Exactly right.

So he's 29 years old, entering his ninth NFL season. We were streaming him last year. He didn't have a top 12 weekly finish until week 9 last year. So if you drafted him, he was a bust last year. And yeah, he's drafted a little bit lower this year, but he's still being drafted a little too high. You have some really concerning data. I mean, everybody's felt it. Everybody's... I mean, the Chiefs are on primetime so often, and it's infuriating watching them win these close games and dink and dunk. And, you

know, it's like his average depth of target target this is a neat stat it's gone down every single year of his career nine point one eight point five eight point one. Every year of his whole career? Since since he became a starter yeah. Wow. Seven point four seven point two six point five six point four last year I mean he's just throwing you know a ton behind the line of scrimmage. He's only one of six quarterbacks that had more than 19% of his throws come behind the line of scrimmage. And it's working. That's the thing. It's like, he's not a bad quarterback. He's not not winning games. He's not not getting to the Super Bowl. This is not like, hey,

listen, my homes, these fancy guys are pretty upset. So I know our fans are like, you know, selling out, you're getting all the ad revenue, but you gotta do something for these players, you gotta throw it deep. It's just not realistic to change right now. It's so strange because, you know, and you look at it, his first six years of his career

he's a 6.5 percent touchdown thrower. That's great. And the last two years he's been 4.5 and 4.5. That is exactly average. But the first year without Tyreek Hill he was the number one overall fantasy quarterback with 5,200 yards 41 passing touchdowns and then the last two years have been nearly identical. It's kind of you know do whatever the coach and the team and the players need me to do on a weekly basis but for fantasy players it's been tough and it's an adjustment because you go on a run like that of 6.5 percent for six years. You kind of were in a place I I mean I remember last year, you thought he'd bounce right back

because that was the consensus. He had so many finishes, so it seemed like an outlier year, now we've got two in a row. Right, and you look at the roster and the talent, it's like okay, Kelsey still gets a lot of targets, he's doing less and less with each one of the targets, so that's not going to change. Rushie Rice is great, but the way he plays is that little

screen, you know, get the ball in his hands early, let him have yards after the catch. Same with, you know, you got Xavier Worthy here, who's another, you know, get the ball in his hands early so fast. That's just not the way for giant fantasy success, not the way for a lot of passing touchdowns to come. And if you look at where he's being drafted, this is really what it's about. Like right now, he's being drafted in the fifth round. And in the fifth round, there are so many running backs and wide receivers that I am

targeting. You know, you've got a lot of the rookies there. You've got R.J. Harvey and Trevion Henderson, and you know, you've got players that I think are impactful. And then several rounds later is Bo Nix, is Kyler Murray, is players who have just as good a shot to finish ahead of Mahomes' here. I think the biggest problem with drafting him is your commitment to him. It's not like it's a late round pick.

So he's your starter. Exactly. Which means that you aren't gonna pivot off of him even though he hasn't been worthy of being an every week start for two straight years. His defense, the Chiefs, they're forced. They were fourth in points against. And second the year before that.

I mean, if you look at a chart, it is an exact crossfade of, hey, when the defense was middle of the pack, our offense was the best in the league. Well now our offense is ranking in the middle because the defense is at the very top. We need your defense to stink. We need Joe Burrow and the Bengals

to instruct your defense on how to support Xandis. If Chris Jones goes down to an injury, go trade for Mahomes. As soon as it happens, you know what I mean? Because if they had to go out there and put up 35 points every single time with Andy Reid and Mahomes, they would do it. It's not like they're not trying to score, but the way that the game scripts work, they don't need to do it. They do what they need to win the game. Yeah, and that is what Brady was like. When you needed to score a lot of points and you

had the personnel to do it, he could do it. When you didn't need to do that. Well, unless you're playing the Eagles elite defense, then it did not work. Yeah, well. Couldn't turn it on. The valve was already off, man. Well, yeah, I think Mahomes is a super dangerous pick for fantasy because if you take him, you are taking him high enough to guarantee that that's your quarterback for the year. And you don't need to box yourself into my homes at quarterback. You know, there've been a couple of times

on mock draft shows, you guys are brought up going back to back late in drafts on a couple of shots, whether it's like a fields in a purdy or a fields in a Dak. Like you, you get more flexibility. You don't want to be locked. I remember this happening, I think it was to Russell Wilson

at the end of the run in Seattle or shortly thereafter. He was the middle round. He had been really good for a long time and people wouldn't sit him down and he'd kill you week after week. That's the hardest place to be. Well, and I think that people,

when drafts come around and your actually push comes to shove, the name Patrick Mahomes, it feels good. I mean, it's one of those things where at the end of the draft, you finish your draft and you look at your roster and you go, okay, I got these running backs, these wide receivers, and I got Bo Nicks. That doesn't feel as good as at the end of it going, I've got my homes leading my team. That sounds great, but it's like, you still have to score fantasy points. He doesn't do it.

In his last 17 games, his consistency score from the fantasy footballers is an F. He is as bad. It's the lowest grade possible. It's the lowest, we don't go below it. So yeah, bypass him in the draft. All right, we'll take a break, and I've got another player

that is benefiting from name value, I think, in average draft position. All right, I did not think that this player was going to be appropriate for this segment originally. But then I went and I looked at where he is going in fantasy drafts and he is going ahead of wide receivers like Stavon Diggs and Jaden Reid and Ricky Pearsall and Josh Downs who we just talked about and Matthew Golden a rookie with some upside in Green Bay and

a number of other players that I think are better bets in the eighth, ninth round of your drafts. And that is the once great, always a friend of the show. Yes. Cooper Cup wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks. Cooper Cup of coffee. He just turned 32 years old on Father's Day. And look, it was an amazing ride. That sucks to have to

share Father's Day and your birthday on the same day like you know what I mean you don't get two celebrations. Oh yeah it's the Christmas birthday. Yeah that's not I'm so sorry. No that wouldn't be every year. No it wouldn't be every year but that you're saying it sucks this time. Yeah, this year you don't get Father's Day gifts and birthday gifts. I mean, they might say, like, this one is... but you know the truth. It's a combo.

Oh, so you spend, like, what, two times? 1.1. Right, exactly. Anyways, I'm so sorry, Cooper. Yeah, Cooper Cup, the decline across the board, it's not like the Rams didn't know what was going on when they made a change. It's been painful to watch his routes per game,

his snap rate is receiving yards per game. It's yards after the catch per reception, his contested catch rate. Everything has been on a downward trend. And the real problem here is that you just, you don't get 32 year old wide receivers that change teams in year nine and suddenly pay off for fantasy football. If you look at the players that change teams, like we're talking fantasy legends that change teams at 31 or older, you're talking like Jordy Nelson going to the Raiders, right? Or Michael Crabtree to the Ravens or Golden Tate to the Giants or AJ Green to

the Cardinals or Robert Woods to the Titans. Like, and all of those seasons, it's like wide receiver 50, 55, 43, 62. You have two cases in the last 12 years where it worked out. Brandon Marshall moved at age 31 and was awesome his first year with the Jets. And you had Devont. Oh, is that the fifth Patrick here? Yes.

Oh man. And again, he was age 31, not 32. Devonte Adams last year when he switched to the Jets. Those ones worked out, but Brandon Cooks and Beckham and AJ Green and the names that I mentioned, Deshaun Jackson, when they moved at this age, it's very, very hard, because you've got a skillset going another direction,

and now you're going to have a brand new offensive coordinator and offensive system you've never played with, Clint Kubiak in Seattle. You can have a new quarterback in Sam Darnold, who, well, maybe it works out, maybe it doesn't, but how much is it going to work out, and how much can it sustain? And then you've got the injury history.

He's played nine games, 12 games, 12 games the past three years. It just seems like as hard as it was for fantasy players and fans to watch the Rams say goodbye to Cooper Cup, which I think it was really hard for Matthew Stafford. That was some of the feedback coming out was like, how could you let this guy go?

The writing was on the wall, and I know he wants to go to Seattle, and he's a hard worker and wants to make it work, but it feels a lot more like a Jordy Nelson Raiders type of season. He'll be valuable for the team. He's not done, but for fantasy purposes, you named a bunch of wide receivers

who have the chance to elevate and be, you know, Ricky Pearsall to step forward to be that first round draft pick. Yeah, is Jaden Reid going to step up this year? You know, these are Josh Downs, Mike's sleeper pick, or you go with kind of on the way out Cooper Cup. By the way, the only two players to even have those years, they moved to the Jets. So if he had gone to the Jets, I would feel much different about them. Yeah, totally.

So now you're bringing up another problem. And maybe this should be on the Bust episode instead. I know he was one of the two names, but everything you said applies to the Devontae Adams this year, changing teams as a year older. Yes it does. Not going to the Jets. Right. Which is the only place where it's worked. Not going to the Jets. Right.

Which is the only place where it's worked. No, that is all true. And being drafted way higher than Cooper Cup right now. I'm not worried about it. And you're not worried, Mike? I'm not worried about Devontae Adams. I am a little worried. Are you?

Well just, look, he looked great. Well look, that math says you should be a little worried. I will say this. Yes. The one thing that was in common with, you know, you got that giant list of players who at this age changed teams. The one thing that was in common with, you know, you've got that giant list of players who at this age changed teams. The one thing that was in common with Brandon Marshall and Devontae Adams succeeding outside

of it being the Jets is that they were awesome the year prior. You know what I mean? Like, you didn't watch them and go, oh, I'm not sure. At the end of last year for Cooper Cup, you had a little bit of, I'm not sure. Right. So now he's changing teams and there's that fear. But at the same time, you can't do it forever. How old is Devontae Adams now? 32. Okay. He's the same age as

Cooper Cup? Yeah. Wow. That's shocking. Devontae Adams is an outlier. I also have terrible news for Cooper Cup and Seattle fans. When asked about being surprised by anything he's learned about Sam Darnold, we're talking about Cooper Cup here, Cooper Cup says, Sam isn't a good golfer and has basic food taste buds. Ooh. So breakfast, if they're having it, it's basic. Two traits that Cooper says are atypical of quarterbacks. Okay.

Apparently all quarterbacks known for their golf game. That is so weird. That is so weird. Apparently all quarterbacks know for their golf game. That is so weird. These are leaders and they lead by their taste buds. Let me ask you this to close it out before we get Mike's bus pick. What are you looking for when you take somebody in the ninth round? Upside. You're looking for someone that can become a third round or higher pick next year. Right, what's worthy of a higher pick.

So that's the hard part is you've got all these variables working against them and then you ask yourself, what's the real ceiling? Yeah, the ADP is what gets me. Because Cooper Cup is a player. Wouldn't have brought him up if he was being drafted in the 10th. If Cooper Cup is later on in the draft,

I can see a world where I go, yeah. Stabilize. Let's see what happens in two weeks with Cooper Cup here but that's a pick that you're hoping is a is at the very least a bi-week filling. All right Mike this one your pick I think he's gonna ruffle. I didn't like one man's feathers. And it's the sunburned man sitting next to me. So the name is David Montgomery running back for... Are you trying to find the blue box? Here we go. That's what the people think of this pick.

This is fun. I am the people! And I am bringing him up not like ranking wise. I have I have him right now at RB23. He's RB23 on underdog. He's RB21 on sleeper. I'm bringing his name up because what I have wanted to do is just copy paste last year. And it's like, oh man, look, a couple years ago, Jamal Williams, all those touchdowns, last year it was just, it was Dave Montgomery. Last two years.

Yeah, okay, sorry, the last two years, thank you. And it is a combination of what the Detroit Lions were able to accomplish last year plus change. So like some statistical regression change that's probably gonna happen. And then actual change with the offensive coordinator. So last year, Dave Montgomery, 6.5% of his carries went for touchdowns.

That was the second highest rate in the NFL. Felt like 98% when you're watching the first quarter. I get it. All he does is score touchdowns. But over the last two years, 37% of his points have come via touchdown. That is a red flag of numbers that are over 35% is where you start to be very concerned about regression. So looking at the team level, the offensive coordinator is gone,

their all-pro center is gone, and the team was just so good last year they became one of seven teams over the last decade to average 3.8 or more touchdowns per game. And then if you look at the teams that we have data on, what happened the next year, you have Matt Ryan's Falcons, they dropped from 4.1 down to 2.2. Mahomes Chiefs in 2018, 4.4 down to 3.5. Like Aaron Rodgers in 2020, 4.1 down to 3.1.

Like that's still a great offense. Like they're giving you points. But if you take away nearly a touchdown a game, all those elite teams are regressing by at least 10 total touchdowns. If you're taking away a touchdown a week or so, that is a big deal. I know that Montgomery has the upside should Jameer Gibbs miss time. I will not deny that fact, but you're having to take David Montgomery there in the fifth round.

Fifth round. And then another thing on top of that was, he's an older back, he's 28, and he's not completely inefficient, but big time stuff is simply not happening. Last year, 185 carries, his longest run was 21 yards on 185 carries over the last five years. Running backs with 185 or more carries

to not have a longer run, 29-year-old Kareem Hunt, 37-year-old Frank Gore. Like he just. 37-year-old Frank Gore? Did you just say 37-year-old? Yeah. Like because. The Iron and the Stone.

Yeah. The explosion, it wasn't there in terms of on the ground, and then he actually overproduced in the receiving game. His yards per reception was very high. He caught 95% of his passes that were thrown on it. There's some things where the Lions themselves and David Montgomery, especially in the passing game, overproduced, and it makes me feel like there just, there could be more fragility to the David Montgomery pick. He was 13 for 55 on average.

55. 55. That's what you got from him on the ground per week, but he scored in 10 separate weeks. So it really, it is a lot of touchdown dependency. Which, and you're like, hey, they're gonna do it again. Maybe. To me, the argument.

But historically, these teams, they lose touchdowns because to stay that hot, you can do it over a season. It happens, you catch fire, you're magic. But then the next season, you're like, oh, hey, we're not as good as we were last year. The compounding issue to me would be this. Let's say you have two outcomes. The offense is humming and cruising

like it was last year, right? And so Montgomery's fine and it's touchdown dependent, but he's fine. The other option is the one that is more scary to me, which is the offense is not doing what it did last year. It is not humming and cruising. They are not scoring as much. The answer to that equation.

It could just be cruising. The answer to that equation is not more David Montgomery. It's more Jameer Gibbs. It's more Jameer Gibbs to spark the offense. So if it does go bad it could go worse in my opinion because you need Gibbs who is the, I mean you just talked about those numbers, the 20 yard, 20 plus yard runs. You need Jameer Gibbs. You almost need him out there more if your offense isn't working. So that would be the gamble I I think. And then he also, he misses games. He has missed a handful. He's missed a few, I feel like he's pretty.

He's never played a 17 game season before. For real? Never. How about a 16 game season when that was the full season? 2019. 2019. Ha ha! But he did it. 15, 13, 16, 14, 14. Also known as his worst fantasy season ever, Jason.

So here's what I'll say, is that in the fifth round, I think he is a decent pick still, and you alluded to it, because he's going to be a solid running back who you can plug and play and more often than not I think he'll be okay. He definitely has a lot of these regression things, but he always has the built-in upside of the Jameer Gibbs injury to launch him forward to where now he's a steal in the fifth round. Most people don't necessarily have that. I agree.

However, the one thing that I think is the scariest part about David Montgomery, and I think is the, like you buried the lead, it is the number one thing as a David Montgomery manager in our league of record, I was terrified. I don't think you mentioned it, but Frank Ragnau. Yeah, I did. Oh, I mean that.

I said the offensive coordinator is gone. Their all-pro center is gone. Frank Ragnau is the highest rated run blocker over the last several years. He's a very good, well-rounded player, but he is a run blocker, like elite run blocking center. That's why three years in a row you've had double digit massive, like way more than double

digit touchdowns from whoever their goal line back was, whether it was Jamal Williams or last two years David Montgomery. And it's like... Yeah, it's a big loss. You miss that big center run blocking monster and all of a sudden maybe you've got to get more creative around the goal line and you can't just run it up the middle the same, which is what David Montgomery is doing. That's my biggest fear with a more fragile type of a selection where he is in dread. He had 12 touchdowns last year 13 the year before you won't be happy with eight or six. Yeah and eight is like that's still a good year. What's weird though is I will say this I still think when you look at who's behind him in the draft there are running running backs. If you're not a rookie and you're being drafted behind Montgomery, I think Montgomery's the best value

between the fifth and seventh rounds. And what I expect... Because Pacheco, Jones, Tyrone, Tracy, Pollard, I mean you could take your shot at Harvey or Judkins or Henderson, that's fine, but I... By the time drafts come around, I think that those rookies will be ahead of Montgomery. That's possible. I think Judkins and all those guys, when push comes to shove. So yeah, TBD where the chips fall on average draft position.

Yeah, I mean, there's a path. I mean, you don't, when you have a running back that finishes high as he's finished the last two years, there is a clear path to regression there. And I think that that was on the table last year, probably brought up in the off season, didn't happen. No, and then they were like even better. Yeah, but there are some variables there

and we'll see how the Lions, I mean, the Lions offense were really kind of counting on that to be real, real good. All right, let's talk some values. Values. Alright this is one of my favorite areas for fantasy is just players that are kind of being forgotten about. Not necessarily players you go reaching for in drafts, but guys that are dropping to areas that they shouldn't be

and where we feel they may be a steal in your drafts. You hit on a couple of value picks. It makes a tremendous difference to the depth of your team and your flexibility in making trades throughout the year and taking your team from being in the top half to being a top tier squad. flexibility in making trades throughout the year and getting, you know, taking your team from, you know, being in the top half to being a top tier squad. Yeah. And I think one of the most important positions you could do that with is a

running back. If you get a good value on a running back, that's, you know, going to solidify your roster for a chamber trip run. One of the guys, usually most years, some of the values are in the veterans that no one wants to be caught holding the bag when they're no longer good. And so, kinda like what I was just talking about with Montgomery, I think by the time the draft comes around,

all these rookies will be drafted ahead of Montgomery. I think it might happen with this guy as well, who I think is a value where he's going in the drafts right now, it's Joseph Mixon, Mike's favorite player. I'll hit the button. You're hitting the full name to see if you can trick him? Yeah. Because Joe Mixon's already triggering? Dude, you should check out this Joseph Mixon guy. He's 28 years old, and I think that especially

with the addition of Nick Chubb being added to the roster, his ADP is not going north. Right now, he's right up basically the beginning of the fifth round, and I could see it going lower, but when I'm there I think it's a very good pick. And if you don't remember how good he was, last year, I mean, from weeks one through 11, he was the running back one. And that's not like weeks one through four. That's the majority of the season for fantasy season, all the way up to week 11. He was averaging 23.3 fantasy points per game. He had over 100 rushing yards in seven of his first 10 games. He's just a workload monster. He is tied with Kieron Williams for the fifth most weighted opportunities per game. And he had the fourth most total red zone touches

Keep in mind. He missed three games and he had the fourth most that wasn't like per game. That's total you also have a scheme change here going from Bobby sloak who I think Everyone loved two years ago. And then last year I don't know why his play calling was so bad But it was so yeah, and everyone knew it and they fired him. Very strange. And they're going to Nick Kaley, who is coming over, and he's basically more of a man gap scheme than the zone scheme that we saw last year.

And if you look at the splits for Mixon between zone and man gap, and this goes back including the bangles, he is way better at the ManGap scheme. So it's just, I think it's a good transition for him. Yards for Kerry, 5.05 in ManGap versus 3.71 in Zone. Yeah, exactly. And this is a player who, the Texans have given a ton of money. I mean, he is their lead back, and I feel like people are a little bit worried that now they're bringing in Chubb, now this is gonna be a rotation that's like a one-two punch.

They paid Nick Chubb pennies, nothing. J.K. Dobbins just went out and got $5 million. I don't have the number in front of me for what Nick Chubb. I think he's got incentives up to that amount, or up to four point something but like his actual one year two and a half Yeah, so half the money JK Dobbins got You know this is this is Joe mixin's backfield and also Nick Chubb is 30 years old coming off of multiple injuries a devastating knee injury Yeah, so this is a guy guy I think is being forgotten how good

he was last year. Well, 4'11 is a steal. He's going to stay a steal for me as well. I agree with you completely. The Packers with Josh Jacobs, the Texans with Joe Mixon, there were conversations last off season that were centered around how good Devin Singletary was in Houston and why would you go do this when Singletary could run well? Then they showed you the difference in offensive philosophy. Now I think Mixon had to carry the load maybe a little bit more than they would have hoped last year just with respect of Diggs' injury and Dell's injury, but... And he had his own injuries.

He's the guy for at least another full season, and you're not paying I mean, where's Jacobs going right now? Oh, Jacobs is much higher than that Like I just it does it blows my mind that this guy who is the number one running back in the second round He's the number one running back in fantasy for the first 11 weeks Yeah, and then he got a meaning right before the playoffs start. Is it a high ankle spring? Well, you had one early in the season. The sprain was early, and then he got something else later. He re-aggravated it and dealt with something else. So there are risks, but not at 4'11 to me.

Yeah, ironically we're talking about a lot of the guys here in that fifth round area, about who you would draft. I think that there is upside and safety in a volume monster. Running back, I want someone who I think is going to be in the top 15 running backs in total opportunities. And then you have the chance here,

the CJ Stroud kind of bounces back and looks more like what we hoped he looked like last year. This is an offense that could be good. They're in a weak division. So there's a lot of ways that this could work for Joe Mixon. He had quite a few big runs. I mean, I had him on my team. I was watching him a lot of ways that this could work for Joe mix. He also had he had quite a few big runs I mean I had him on my team I was watching him a lot less here 59 yard run a 45 yard run 30 yard runs like he had more breakaway runs than he

Eventually got caught right, you know, he didn't take them all the way to the house But there were more explosive plays from him where you know, I I like the value there It looks like his he's RB 16 off the board on underdog 17 on sleeper. I have him ranked at 14. He's the perfect RB 2 for any team. If you end up snagging like a you know whatever Gibbs or some high upside big play guy you get the get the veteran to go out there and put up 85 yards in a touchdown at the four or five turn where he's going he can easily be your third running back. I have Horrifying news. Oh, no You're the highest I am NOT the highest oh no, but I am NOT the lowest

No, I am aware that I that I come in last on total current stats But I still look at him as, I mean obviously I brought him up because I think he is a. I'm moving him down. I think he's a value. Just because. Just because.

The reason he is. He is, he's a value. This is why the Joseph thing, get Joseph into his head. He's a fresh player, just look at the stat lines from last year. I'm not always current where you guys' rankings are and I was very surprised to see that. I did see that. I have a name that I'll bring up here in a minute. He is not living around the

fifth round though. So we'll talk about somebody that is just barely being drafted that it's time to look. give him another look well last year it was it was really really rough for this running back in fact it's hard to argue that there was a bigger bus there wasn't I don't think there I think he was the biggest but. I mean, Christian McCaffrey. Doesn't matter. I got mixed and wrong. I got this guy right. That's true. Yeah, and no one stepped up, but he stepped down.

It's Travis ETN, and he is here on the values episode. He's already accomplished the bust. He's already accomplished the bust. People are so mad at Travis Etienne, it's crazy. I am one of them, Mike. Here's the nuts and bolts of what happened last year. He was coming off a finish at running back three overall. Over 1,000 yards, 58 receptions on 73 targets.

It was, this is first round pick. This is second round pick. And he ends up going from 15 points a game to 7.4 a game, and this was not an injury lost season. This was not Christian McCaffrey the bus. This was not, this was, I'm going out there every week and giving you half of what I gave you last year. This was RB 37 from a first or second round pick.

And the Burns are now swinging that pendulum to a place that is sitting, he's at RB 34 on Sleeper. And. Think that's too high? Well, yeah, I don't, I don't. I think what's wild here is we are waiting for the dust to settle a little bit on Liam Cohen and what's gonna happen at running back,

and we're starting to see a little bit of what the plan might be. And so he's in no man's land in drafts now, but I think he has a value because right now, this is the starting running back for a team with a new offensive coordinator that I think we should start out pretty excited about. Liam Cohen, his offense, last year in Tampa Bay,

you have two top 24 running backs. You're a team that was second in running back fantasy points, second in running back reception, something that ETN's proven he can do. First in total running back receiving yards. So putting Travis ETN in a position where he's not just running it up the middle is important. Whenever we've seen Travis Etienne in space,

that's where his special gifts shine. And he has a first round draft pick that went out and put up an RB17 and an RB3 season. And then last year, it's like, last year could have been his last, like Jacob's last season with the Raiders, where people are like, what in the world is going on and we're giving up?

Sometimes seasons just go really, really poorly. And it doesn't mean that Ethan's gonna stay the starter the whole year. But if you invest a ninth round pick on him and he does succeed in this offense because they build stuff around what he's able to do, you stole in your fantasy draft. And that's the thing is you're getting him at the lowest possible price.

And Liam Cohen is a good offensive coordinator. He came out and talked about, you know, they don't wanna trade Travis ETN. ETN's very excited about what they've done with the offensive line. They've invested in both free agency and the draft. You know, they were ranked 31 and 32 in run blocking. So you can go out and say,

oh, you know, Travis Etienne, you were a humongous bust. Yeah, that's true. You had no offensive line. You lost a bunch of offensive weapons and you lost your quarterback during part of the year. Throw the season at least partly out, in my opinion, and say if they name him the starter and they give him those

opportunities there's just no way for him to not deliver better than a ninth round selection. You can look at like part of a downer for it is Tank Bigsby just looked like the better runner last year and that's not to say Tank Bigsby was flawless last year. He was the better in between the attackers runner for sure. So it's and he's running on, that's the same team that Tank is playing for. So that kind of hurts the optimism for Travis Etienne. I think that is completely a part of it.

But watching the way that Cohen has talked about Travis Etienne thus far is the market is wrong, I think. And I don't love Travis Etienne the player, but I think that the market is wrong of guessing who's gonna get the production. And guys, I mean, he's coming from Tampa Bay, right? We know, like Bucky, but I think he liked Rashad White. Guys, 3.7 a carry, six and a half per catch.

Who does that remind you of? That sounds like Travis Etienne. Yeah, like, 6.5 per catch. Who does that remind you of? That sounds like Travis Etienne. Yeah, like, Cohen's gotta love that. If you put Rashad White on the team in place of Travis Etienne, I think he'd be going ahead of the ninth round. Yeah, yeah, I think that's true. And I don't think that Etienne's a worse runner than Rashad White. That'd be really hard to do. Rashad, what Rashad White managed to average those numbers with a much better

offensive line. So, look, this is not this is not make Travis Etienne, you're my guy territory. Because I know you guys will sneak him in like Bigsby, but this is like, hey, you just need to stay water with like the the base. Yes, we do tootin excitement and and take bigsby I give if calm Well, I thought there was a sound Problem, and it was you I mean into the microphone. Well, I was like, oh that was a glitch No, it was just you I said Bayshall tootin

Yeah, it just happens just happen. What who was was that? Is that Matt, the child in the room? Yeah, just the erasers. We found that too funny. To give you one more quote, ETN said Thursday at minicamp that Liam Owens, Liam Cohen's offense has been getting him into a lot of space, puts him in a position to make plays.

And then they came out, Sports Illustrated's John Shipley said he will start as the team's RB one. So you're gonna get your first shot at success and you look at those other two, you know, Tutin's gonna have to overcome, thank you, being a rookie and Bigsby is not as versatile in the passing game. So.

With the podcast needs. And more. Etienne or Bigsby to. Yeah. To be the starter. We did confirm that Travis ETN is an official footy award winner for last year's Poopiest Pants. Oh, he was?

Yes, official. He was the official winner. So it's in the mail, did he get it yet? No, it's in the mail. Still in the mail. Yeah. Most of the footies stay in the mail. They stay in the mail. Every day they're walking out opening that mailbox

thinking it's today the day. So day they're walking out opening that mailbox thinking, it's today the day. So that's my value pick, Mike. You have a name that I feel like is, like you have a great deal of conviction about this player. It has been building. He gets brought up a decent amount on this show, but I wanna actually make a case for George Pickens

of the Dallas Cowboys, or as Jason refers to him, George. That's a pretty, On a first name basis. That's a pretty lazy nickname, if you just take the last name off. It just helps me remember who it is. That's just his name, that's not a nickname. He's George, baseline stuff here, he's 24,

he's going into year four. He's only 24, huh? He's only 24, his sophomore year was 1140 yards, five touchdowns. So yeah, there was excitement for this past season with Fields and Russell Wilson, and it did not work out. You only had 300 yards. But Pickens appeared in 14 games. He had 900 receiving yards in 14 games, and NFL.com, they just put out a thing of players who lost the most yards because of penalty.

It got called back. George Pickens is one of four players last year who had over 100 yards negated by penalty. Like, you tell me George Pickens in 14 games puts up 1,000 yards in 3? Like, people are more excited about that. Yes, he has been inconsistent. I mean, he's a C last year, a D before that, C before that. Inconsistency. Inconsistency. So it comes in big games. I don't know if you want George being your one, but he is just a nitro boost to your fantasy lineup.

He's been over 15 yards of reception each of his first three years. I've got one, like, I'm gonna be on your team for a second. Okay, welcome aboard. And give you something that. He said for a second. I don't know. Well, the last time, So Dak was hurt last year.

Yeah. He played a full season in 2023 as everybody's fantasy darling. I just want to know if you can remember off the top of your head how many touchdowns Brandon Cooks scored for the Dallas Cowboys in 2023 because most people consider Brandon Cooks' Dallas career to be kind of

unremarkable, never in the headlines. No, Brandon Cooks was like, he be kind of unremarkable, never in the headlines. No, Brandon Cooks was like, he had that stretch at the end of the year where he was catching a touchdown per game. I would guess, I'm gonna go seven, I'm gonna go eight. He had eight. Eight touchdowns, Brandon Cooks had eight touchdowns.

Back half of his career with Dak, across from CD Lamb. I just, the opportunity is right in front of you. In fact, the Cowboys have ranked in top 10 for total wide receiver fantasy points in five of the last six years. Dak Prescott is a good quarterback. In the absence of Blake Jarwin, they've thrown to the wide receiver position.

And we all do this. Oh, well, he's playing with the best quarterback of his career that that is a very Go to move for fantasy analysts. It is so unbelievably true at this point though for George Pickens To who gets to go to play with that who over the last three years Seventh in past success rate sixth and completion completion percentage, eighth in passer rating. DAC is a good quarterback. From all accounts, everything is going very well. And then-

Well, it's because he hasn't been not targeted yet. As of right now, and then where George is going in the draft and looking at all the players around him, it's good players, but you have real question marks like Chris Olave, okay, quarterback and health. Xavier Worthy? I take my shot on Pickens. Like Xavier Worthy? I think. Maybe, like maybe you want to be in on Worthy. I have some scheme questions but maybe you want to be on Worthy. Pickens there. That's fine. Jalen Waddle, quarterback questions. Jamison Williams see Pickens there. That's fine. Jalen Wattle. Quarterback questions. Jamison Williams. We'll try Pickens there. Jamison Williams, that's a great pick. Chris

Godwin. Injury concerns. Jordan Addison. Some quarterback questions and there was a tiny blurb coming through about Jordan Addison. If you recall back in 2024, I think it was, he got citated for a DUI. So there's some stuff going on with his trial. So that's all still up in the air. Then right after that's Jerry Judy. Oh, hey, look, another quarterback problem. In this range of wide receivers, there is. There's not a lot of players

with that level of upside in use. Jamison and George Pickens who are wide receiver twos, but they have their own offenses where we can feel good. Like, if they're off... Imagine rolling those two guys out together? On one team? You better have a one.

On one team. But so point being, I'm very confident that George Pickens maximizes this year. Like I said, 900 yards last year with over 100 yards lost to penalty in 14 games. He was almost 1,200 yards the year before that. Having that on the resume, the 1,100 plus. Yeah. I mean, Jason, do you think he's priced right? Yeah, I mean, I look at the wide receiver, too, for

Dak Prescott on a team that can't run the ball. And I think- Yeah, that too. I think, yeah, that should be a top 20. They have Miles Sanders now. Should be a top 24 wide receiver if the wide receiver's good. So the question is, is George good? I think he, that should be a top 20. They have my old Sanders now. Should be a top 24 wide receiver if the wide receiver's good. So the question is, is George good?

I think he's good. I think he's good too. And the fact that he's only 24 years old, it goes a long way because he's not, we should not have seen the best of his career yet. I think that genuinely what gets in George Pickens' way is gonna be George Pickens. It's gonna be you are certifiably not in a position

to be the one on this team. That is just, and he should know it. I think he knows it. When he's on the Steelers, he was the number one guy. And he's like, you will treat me like the number one, not with C.D. Lamb there. You can certainly hope some of the on the field maturity is forced upon him by knowing his role in this offense

and embracing that and not, you know, because you want to see consistency from him in some capacity. That's been part of the problem. It's just like you don't play him and he breaks off a 70 yard touchdown. You do play him, it's a week, he's two for 15. That was some of the troubles, but again,

bad quarterback play is putting it nicely. he's two for 15. That was some of the troubles, but again, bad, you know, bad quarterback play is putting it nicely. But a fun stat here, is George Pickens good? There's only two wide receivers in NFL history who have totaled more than 2,800 receiving yards while averaging 16 or more yards per reception before turning 24. He has not signed another contract. He has not. So that is interesting. It's almost like, do you just George?

Hold on, do you want the name? Yeah, go ahead. George Pickens and Randy Moss. No, he's not Randy Moss, but point being. No, I don't want the name. He has accumulated a lot of yards and he's a big yards per catch guy. I mean, he's 24.

Do you want him to sign? With Dallas? In redraft. Would you want him signed? For this year? I don't think it makes any difference in redraft. I think I would not want him signed. Yeah. George Pickens. I think he's the type of player that... Payday Pickens. I want payday Pickens. Yeah. Which, oh man, that would be, that would be, George Pickens could do just something incredible this year of go out, have a monster season, be great for fantasy football, and go get a gigantic bag of money the next year. It's like if he has a big season he's not a cowboy. No. No. Because Liam already has that big deal. And that works for the Cowboys because then they'll get compensation

back for losing him in free agency. And a good year of football. Yeah. All right we have a brand new show coming up. We've got undervalued or overvalued, underrated or overrated actually is the name of the show. On the next episode we've got another mock draft coming up in the next couple of weeks. We've got a footballers AMA show a lot going on and you can check out the Ultimate Draft Kit. Prepare yourself for the big drafts coming up. The most fun time of year. Everybody's undefeated. Set the foundation for your team ultimatedraftkit.com. The app is available on Apple, on Google Play, and we are adding features and upgrading that thing all

the time including the draft analyzer coming out very soon Which we have big plans for so if you want more information ultimate draft kid calm for that any parting words gentlemen Do you have anything to? Say to the people Jason how are you? Oh, I'm in a lot of pain in a tremendous amount of tremendous amount of what I tried to walk after lunch Around our building as I do is too hot What a guy. I tried to walk after lunch around our building as I do and it was too hot. You just didn't think after all the years of knowing there's on a sun like sunscreen

on day one would have been a good. He's tougher than the sun. I forget every year. All right. Goodbye. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF Ballers.