Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Early Busts & Values, Three-Headed Arguments - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/27

Episode Date: June 27, 2024

Players to avoid in 2024 fantasy football drafts! Andy, Mike, and Jason each make bust picks on today’s fantasy football podcast! Find out which players have little margin for error at their draft cost. Plus, undervalued players to target in drafts! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for June 26th, 2024. 00:00-Intro 06:35-News and Notes 11:05-Fantasy Busts (00:00) Intro (06:35) Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk (11:05) Fantasy Football Busts (12:30) Davante Adams (21:45) CJ Stroud (31:05) Zay Flowers (36:25) Fantasy Football Values (37:30) Jayden Daniels (43:30) Raheem Mostert (48:00) Quentin Johnston 2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,

including a new chance to win cash every minute in the app. Get into the game with Monopoly Double Play at McDonald's. While supplies last, one in five chances to win game piece prizes at outset, chances to win Double Play prizes based on time of code entry, and draw prizes based on number of entries in each draw. See rules in the app. Get a credit card annual fee waiver and earn C-plus points faster with the Scotiabank Ultimate Package and bank more entertainment. Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages. Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

Welcome in. Well, that's not quite there yet. No. Oh. Well, that's not quite there yet. No. I'm fine, but I think I had some permanent damage or something. Yeah, I haven't even thought about your former illness. Yeah, it's been a couple weeks. Yeah, you don't seem sick at all until that.

No, and I'm not. I'm not sick, but I think something got broken. I don't know. Guess we'll try again next week. Welcome into the Fantasy Footballers. You've got until training camp. Are you going to be at full go for training? Yeah, that's a good point. Yeah, I mean, we can...

When does that start? I don't know. A couple of weeks? Yeah, good insight. Well, why don't you tell us? Welcome in Thursday, June 27th, the Fantasy

Footballers podcast. And Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway here with you. You can follow us over on X at the FFBallers, at Jason FFL, at FFHitman, at Andy Holloway. If you want to follow us over there,

you can watch the show on YouTube, youtube.com slash the fantasy footballers. Did you get us a date, Mike? I did. Thank you. The Cardinals will start. I mean, it's different times. Cardinals are the 23rd. Let's see.

This is alphabetical, so it looks like the earliest team would be Houston on July 17th. That's fine. I'll be fine by then, apparently. Bills are the 16th. Can we get a 15? No, no. That's rookie report date.

Oh. You're using bad information. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Well, but that is the start. Oh, get out of here. Is there an advantage to starting earlier?

Yeah. Do you get more tired? More injuries in the offseason? More prep time. That's what I dread in the offseason, because this is all anticipation and excitement. But the first real injury, it's always a shock to the system. And it will happen. At least it always has, historically speaking.

So we've got early busts and values on the show today. So we'll be talking about some individual picks for, you know, players that we think could let you down. Jason's smirking. Do you know what I'm smirking about? No. Your value pick. Oh. I'm just so – I can't wait, man.

I can't wait. His value pick and my bust pick. I don't want to do this. I don't know what your bust pick is, so I'm excited to find out. I don't want to be the one who has to tell everybody what's going to happen. Oh, I did see it. But I have. Yeah, Mike's going to make you sad.

Because you know what? I made myself sad. Oh, I did see it. But I have... Yeah, Mike's going to make you sad. Because you know what? I made myself sad. Oh, wow. Yeah. I don't think we have any NFL news to cover on today's show. I did want to mention with the Ultimate Draft Kit

available right now, we're doing a kind of a unique and special giveaway. We did this last year as well. It's an opportunity to come and play in the very now famous Scotty Fish Bowl, which raises money for Fantasy Cares. But you've probably heard of the Scotty Fish Bowl before. We'll be playing in it. And we've got five spots that Scott Fish has been kind enough to bestow

upon us that we can give away to our listeners. And so we're going to give away five spots. We will choose them. These guys don't even know. We're going to choose them next Monday, by next Monday. Okay. And it's going to come from anybody that has an Ultimate Draft Kit. You can get that at ultimatedraftkit.com. Five spots in the Scotty Fish Bowl to play with us and many others.

It's a great opportunity to be a part of one of the the biggest leagues out there yeah it's a combination of casual players and industry people such as us and and scott fish is just he's the best yeah tremendous human yeah he's just so strong you know it's like robocop what a human like robocop i don't know that is not very human he's half robot all i did was think about like a super human and robocop came to mind that's where i'm at that's interesting you got a deep dive on that robocops you think i need to talk to pinnacle humanity yeah robocop's your go-to? Pinnacle humanity. Robocop.

It's like a super person who could do everything. Not Superman. It's Robocop. I was trying to think of an upgraded body. You made it sound like he's a superb human. I figured he's got an upgraded body. Scott Fish

went into a lab they upgraded him and now he fights police with no dexterity all right well if you want to play in that man's league uh which we are playing in get your uh ultimate draft kit which you're gonna want anyways because it is an incredible tool and we're gonna work with fantasy cares this year as well um it helps raise money for a variety of charities. The bulk of it goes to shopping trips around the country, purchasing toys for tots around Christmas time. So there you go.

Anything else that we need to cover here at the top? Anything I'm forgetting, Mike? Anything RoboCop related? I like RoboCop. I'm just surprised that that's what happened. I would have gone like Bruce Wayne. You know? He's not all human.

That makes no sense. What are you talking about? You put those two in a room. You see who comes out. Give me a break. I mean, why is Bruce Wayne your standard for human? But he wants an upgraded human. Yeah.

He's upgraded himself. When you think of a human that's like a superhuman, you're like Bruce Wayne. Yes. No. He's a superhero that's a full human. That's terrible. Yeah. Mike, who do you got?

That's like at least Wolverine or something. Yeah. Or like Captain America. Captain America. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Captain.

Okay. All right. Whoops. Honestly, shut off the podcast. All right. Whoops. Honestly, shut off the podcast. All right. Everybody out there, just turn it off. Any news? We're not doing anything for you.

No news. We do have a quick question. Jimmy in St. Louis writes in, if you could grab two stud running backs in the first rounds, are you comfortable with Debo as your wide receiver one? Right now, his average job position is the late third third so that would be why the question's there not really no um i'd be nervous i i i am nervous you know you don't know exactly where he's going to be this this last year he finished as a wide receiver one finishes the wide receiver 12 was consistency of only a b but we've seen over the last couple years that it you know there there

are the tendencies of players to be able to disappear you add Ricky Pearsall to this as of right now Brandon Ayuk is you know part of the team and there's a lot of mouths to feed this is the lowest passing volume offense in the NFL last season at least and so comfortable like I like having Debo Samuel. This is not an anti-Debo Samuel take. I mean, Ricky Pearsall doesn't get me off of Debo Samuel. I'm simply talking about consistency. That's all I'm talking about. Debo Samuel's a man amongst boys.

He's a great player. But when I'm looking at my wide receiver one for fantasy, I want someone who I feel like is going to consistently go out there. And, you know, I want him to I I feel like is going to consistently go out there and you know I want him to have 160 plus targets and so I think in the third round there are there are other options I would prefer you're saying for your wide receiver one you want that many targets you're never getting close to that with Debo that's what I'm yeah that's exactly what I'm saying but he finished RB wide receiver two with 120 targets so that's in his range of outcomes sure yeah I mean

he he can have incredible explosive games we'll have a ton of rushing attempts rushing touchdowns all that jazz but i mean if i'm i'm looking at that and i'm saying okay you know right next to him let's just talk about who's going there yeah that's what i was going to go look at to see if there's somebody you prefer as your wide receiver one instead of him this four pack that's going right next to each other nico collins mike Evans, Debo Samuel, and DJ Moore. And who would you rather have? Put them in order of who you want as your wide receiver one most, Mike?

Nico. Okay, and then number two on that list? Debo. Nico, Debo, then Evans, then... Yes. What was the last name? DJ Moore. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. I think I'd rather have Nico. I'd rather have Evans as well. Over Debo? Yeah. So is that because we're struggling with the order and the confidence, does that say something about his question? It does.

That's the situation you will be in if you go running back, running back. Therefore, you will have to make that call. And it doesn't sound like any of us are like. No, we're not thrilled. Mike might be with Nico. If I'm coming out with two elite RBs and I get Nico, I'm happy with that build. Okay. I think the San Francisco wide receiver room right now is pretty interesting

going into the year and how we projected in IUK and the whole – I mean, we don't have news today to talk about, but some of the news is just the rumor mill of Brandon IUK. He's taking these negotiations personally. Obviously, there's some public negotiation going on with – I mean, this is not the first time that we've had things leak from Brandon Ayoub's social accounts. Has he deleted the 49ers from his socials yet?

I imagine he must have. Because that's the next step. I haven't seen it reported, but it's on the way. Boy, that sends quite the message, doesn't it? On the way. I mean, he's definitely going to get a contract if he does that. Yeah. on the way i mean it's definitely gonna get a contract if he does that yeah what if kyle the borgogin stripped his profile of fantasy footballers like would you we'd let him go and

replace him easily oh okay you wait that's not a good negotiating tactic no it's not kyle i know you're listening okay love you um so yeah not not a whole lot to talk about like he said not news you know any headline news so brandon iuk were paying attention to it he's supposed to have met with the 49ers at his request and we'll go from there um confirmed that his instagram has pictures of him in san francisco gear okay so he's still got another card to play right also only has 12 instagram posts what about his his uh twitter does is there uh that one i'd have to go find stay tuned yeah the big news all right if you guys don't have anything else to chat about? Let's jump right in. Bust.

What do we mean when we're talking about a bust? Somebody that is not a guarantee to fail, of course, but maybe has some things working against them, represents a higher risk situation for fantasy managers, kind of a beware. there is a path for disappointment here yeah anything you want to add to that yeah it could be for a bunch of different reasons maybe it's because of where they're going maybe it's because of you know it's not always that we think this player is terrible and you should not be picked at any cost it's it's a matter of

you know you you look at Tony Pollard last year. He might have been the biggest bust outside of injured players that there was. He wasn't bad or worthless. He was just like, you know, the seventh pick in the draft, and he was a terrible pick. It didn't return what you expected because of what you invested. He was a bust even though he was still a relevant fantasy asset i feel like uh i want to let one of you guys begin this uh segment on the show today uh because i had started on our last episode so who wants to go first with a one of their own

bust picks i'm gonna let jason go yeah i'll hop in because honestly earlier when i just was swiping through the show doc here to see what was going on i thought that you this was your value pick it is not it is not this is my bust oh and i am fine with it i believe it i have not drafted him at where he is going and that is one of the best wide receivers of this generation davante adae Adams, wide receiver for the Las Vegas Raiders, I believe is a bust pick in fantasy football this year. Let me explain. It's kind of a three-headed argument, right?

You've got the age. The best kind. An argument with three heads. You have the age, you have the team, and you have the draft cost. The draft cost is a big, big part of this. This is not like Mike Evans last year where he was dropping down into the middle rounds because he was older and there was a little bit of name fatigue. And then you have the option of him finishing as a top 15 wide receiver and being a phenomenal pick.

This is a guy who right now is the wide receiver 10 um in sleeper an early second round pick this is being drafted as a as an elite definite hit a dominant guy um you know a long long time ago when he was starting his career we used to joke that he stunk because he was supposed to be good it wasn't a joke joke. Well, that's true. Remember how many years I reminded you he had never hit 1,000? But even before that, he started really slow. Well, he was historically bad on a per-route basis through two years. But then the last eight years, he's been awesome. He's averaged 151 targets, 98 receptions, 1,200 yards, and 11 touchdowns,

including this last year where he was really, really good. 103 for 11, 44, and 8. And so right now, Devontae Adams is 31 1⁄2 years old. He will turn 32 on Christmas Eve. Please remember ChristmasFootball.com, one of the greatest websites that is out there. But if we look back at the last couple of years, whether it's situational or age or whatever, he has actually declined, right? He went from Aaron

Rogers to Derek Carr to Aiden O'Connell and company, and his catch rate went from, you know, high 70s to 50s. Now, his yards per catch have gone from, you know, up in the 12 to 15s. Last year was down at 11. His yards per route run for the first time in a long time was sub two. His yards after catch, which has always been, you know, he's been great at that. He was down at 3.3 yards after catch. And they changed how they utilized him and stopped putting him in the slot that much last year. Now, he was hyper targeted. He had a ton of targets, but they were coming from Aiden O'Connell,

who very well currently is being projected to have the upper hand, but it's him or Gardner Minshew, right? 63% of Devonta Adams' targets last year were catchable. That is like, okay, great. You need 175 targets to just be okay. Only Garrett Wilson had a lower catchable target rate and the quarterback situation has not been improved or fixed here for the Raiders. If you look at this Luke Getzey offense coming in as the new offensive coordinator, it's music to Antonio Pierce's ears.

They are, I mean, in 2022, 27th in neutral pass rate he was. 32nd in neutral, or 27th in neutral pace, 32nd in neutral pass rate. This last year, 31st and 30th. I mean, this is not. Slow and not passing a ton. Slow and not passing a ton. But it's really, so you've got the team and the quarterback issue that I'm not in love with. You've got the age that I'm not in love with. And now let's look at the ADP where you have to select him over the last decade. There have been 11 wide receivers, 31 years or older

that have been drafted in the first three rounds. Now, if you're being drafted in the first three rounds at that age, you're a star. You, you just dominated last year, right? The list is full of Hall of Famers, Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, like nonstop studs. Three, three of those 11 finished among the top 20 wide receivers. Only Jordy Nelson, who was the wide receiver one in 2016, and then the following year completely fell off a map, Julian Edelman, and, of course, last year's Devontae Adams.

However, last year's Devontae Adams is the perfect example of Jordy Nelson had it and then it went away. And so I just feel like you've got a combination of a couple of things here. One, what is his ceiling? Devontae Adams with Aiden O'Connell and Gardner Minshew is not a top five. You can't. No way. No way. He can't have enough touchdowns to be a top five wide receiver in 2024. So you're drafting a guy who he very well might have to have another 175 targets

might be okay and so but you're drafting him at that ceiling right now like that he's gonna finish you know hope maybe he'll finish his wide receiver 12 and sneak out what he did last year barely I mean you said what's the ceiling my My answer to that would be 6-12. Yeah, I mean, last year, 175 targets finished 12th. Now they add Brock Bowers, another offensive weapon. They still have Jacoby Myers. So this is like, I just feel like right now you're drafting him at his ceiling. But this isn't the case where, you know, some guys are drafting him at the ceiling,

but the floor is not too far away. This could be the expiring asset remember when when julio jones was unbelievable just non-stop every year he's old he's never gonna stop and then all of a sudden he went from i mean look at this names just i'll let you go julio jones julio jones was one of these guys who was drafted super high finished as the wide receiver 52 that year Jordy Nelson the year after that great year Finishes the wide receiver 46 Brandon Marshall finishes the wide receiver 47 Andre Johnson the wide receiver 28

Like the floor is Actually low I will defend Julio because points per game that year He was on pace to be a stud He just missed a bunch of games Let me make the more Can I weasel in and help your argument that year he was on pace to be a stud. He just missed a bunch of games. Let me make the more – He's old. Yeah, part of that being old.

Can I weasel in and help your argument? I'll allow it. Last season he finished as the wide receiver 11. From week 10 on he had 191 target pace, so they even went up. But his consistency was a C. He had 47% of his games where he was above 10.5 fantasy points. That is a sub 50-50 shot at 10.5 points from Devontae Adams, who was formerly the most guaranteed player to deliver on a week-to-week basis. To me, you can make the argument that last year's performance is not worthy of the pick. If you've got an identical

season, I don't know if you're happy. I mean, I think that that tells you something about the bus potential, which does exist due to age, quarterback, offense, all of those. I mean, I think Devontae Adams is loud enough to get 175 targets.

But does the yards catch go down again? Do the touchdown variables exist? I think so. And even if he gives you what he gave you last year, look, it was really cool in championship weekend. That was amazing. He had 21 targets. He had 13 receptions for 126-2, and he still caught eight touchdowns last year with that hodge

podge of quarterbacks but he had a really rough stretch i mean i had that i went on the ride like i had i picked him up and he scored no touchdowns for like seven straight weeks in the middle of the year he had a five-week stretch which he was on pace for 60 and 598 so and i'm thinking he was loud during the five weeks that it didn't work out. Yeah, the floor for this offense, you know, you look at the playoffs. Well, he was great at the end, but in week 16, he stopped you from getting to the championship when he had one catch for four yards.

He had four games that finished inside his fantasy finish. So he finished at wide receiver 11. He only had four games where he finished inside the top 11. So I think consistency is the strongest argument against Devontae Adams. And then you add on all the things you just said. It makes it like if he was a third or fourth round pick, I'd be really cozy. Exactly. I am not saying Devontae Adams has definitely lost it.

I saw something on film that makes me think this is the beginning of the end. But what I know is that the end comes for everyone eventually. And he is being drafted at a ceiling. I don't want to die. A terrible, terrible pick for his current draft cost. How did you make this about you? He said the end's for everybody. It's about all of us.

We all want to die, Mike. I mean, he just, existential crisis. We'll take a break. We'll come back with Mike's pick. All right, we're back. We'll shift to Mike's bust selection here because it will pivot us off of the wide receiver spot because my bust pick is a wide receiver as well.

So why don't we take a little break here, and why don't you break everybody's hearts? So this reminds me of, this was years ago, to tie it into what Jason was talking about, the year that Julio Jones went to Tennessee, and I said, this brings me great pain to say that Julio Jones is going to be a bust pick for fantasy football this year. And look, that's toot toot over here, but that was the year where it just,

it was gone. Collapsed. It absolutely vanished for him. And so this is not that saying that it's going to vanish for this player because he's an up-and-comer. But it's C.J. Stroud, seemingly America's quarterback from the Houston Texans, and he's just – this is an ADP problem. And it is – to me, it's a massive ADP problem.

Is that Coleridge Bernard Stroud, the fourth? You've got to talk to Kyle on this one. Kyle, is that his real name? That's his name. Coleridge Bernard Stroud? You've got to talk to Kyle on this one. Kyle, is that his real name? That's his name. Coleridge Bernard Stroud. Coleridge? I've never heard that. That's a fancy name. That's regal. Yes. I don't even know where he got the J.

I know where he got the C for Coleridge. Coleridge. He's just taking the sound. He's just a J. He's just taking the sound. Coleridge. just taking the sound ridge cj yeah that makes sense math checks out look go on mike it's one of those robert is bob type of situations yeah coleridge is cj so here's the problem it's completely about his ADP. Right now, going as a QB5 on the sleeper platform, that's the middle of the fourth round, the QB6 for underdog and best ball drafts.

And he is an up-and-coming quarterback. He's a great player. The future is so bright. He's turning into a superstar. But his archetype, he is a pocket passer. And to me, I'm not drafting a pocket passer in the first four rounds of a fantasy football draft. I need a player who has a ceiling that is not contingent on this guy having an out-of-control season, and he throws 35-plus passing touchdowns.

Look, looking at what C.J. Stroud actually did, because the excitement is not matching that. Last year he was a consistency score of C in our rating, so that means 46% of the time he hit our threshold that we want to see. Top five games, so ceiling games see top five games so ceiling games top five games for cj stroud last year two games with three or more passing touchdowns with if you're a pocket passer and i'm gonna hit a ceiling you better have a bunch of these one one against tampa bay who everyone was throwing multiple touchdowns against tamp Bay. His splits were, if he was at home and against a bottom 16 defense,

that's when he really came to play and gave us a bunch of fantasy football points. But he doesn't run. On average, guys who are giving us elite production at the quarterback position, on average, 28% of their fantasy production comes via rushing cj stroud was under 15 last year so like this is like my argument for anthony richardson it's because i know that he's going to run a ton and i'm chasing the ceiling but cj stroud is he's not going to give that to us remember when baker mayfield had a historic rookie season broke breaks the the passing touchdown record at that time gets juiced up all the way to qb4 and then everything just falls apart it's and then like the guys who are going

like going after him you know and just let's i'm gonna ask you guys what you think of this player's season okay last year was this what is it A good season or a bad season? And you have, uh, so Patrick Mahomes, was that a bad season for him? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It was. And he was 0.5 points behind CJ Stroud, Justin Herbert within half a point of CJ Stroud. Kyler Murray was right there. Russell Wilson guys, Russell Wilson was scoring one fewer fantasy point on average per game than C.J. Stroud. Brock Purdy outscored him. And, yes, I understand the projection part because you have to do that

in fantasy football. You have to take your guess on who's going to elevate. Stephon Diggs is in town. It's year two. But you're taking a player who it's just like Joe Burrow you're if the touchdowns come then he's going to be great for fantasy football and you are risking such a high pick on a player who to me top three is it's not even in the range of outcomes for CJ Stroud well that that would be him just turning into the next Patrick Mahomes. Yes.

And or having one of those Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow years where you throw a bunch. That is in the range of outcomes, but to me it's like... Here's what's tough for me to go against a guy that I really like. What were you going to say? I was going to say

Burrow and Stroud have an identical range of outcomes to me. They're 100%. Who's going to have the better season? I don't know. I'd probably lean Burrow, but Burrow's a couple rounds later. What's the ADP for Stroud? What quarterback?

Quarterback 6 on underdog, quarterback 5 on sleeper. He is going just a couple picks behind Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. And where did he finish last year? Last year. I know he missed. Did he miss a game?

He missed some time. Let me get the. In points per game, he was the quarterback nine. So here's my worry, okay? And you tell me whether it's founded or not. And I think I'm with you. I think we all agree on this. The Stroud is just being – people love him.

And it sounds like at QB 6 and 5, it's priced in, the jump. Yes. Because I'm looking at, like, all the top fantasy quarterbacks, literally all the ones that had breakout seasons, right? Like, highest pedigree type of situations. So Allen, Hurts, Mahomes, Lamar, Herbert, Burrow, Kyler, Lawrence. Okay?

All those guys. Higher fantasy finish in year two than year one. For all of them. So if you believe that the player is... The only one that I could find that had a worse fantasy finish after a kind of like I would say uh popped on film type of situation was Dak because Dak went from like uh six to ten in his second year

I would imagine Baker as well right um oh Baker got worse that's what I'm saying Baker didn't Baker was a tough one because he didn't play till the second half of his his rookie season so you didn't have like right the ability to go and look and see that. But per game, I'm sure you're right. But in recent years, if you showed it, you did get better, but QB 6 and 5 is already baking in the better. So if he finishes at QB 6, 5, 7. If he's at 7, that's the problem.

The margin for error of being a bust pick. Would you feel happy? No. If he is the quarterback 7 or quarterback 8, that's going to feel like a catastrophic pick because, meanwhile, a guy's going multiple rounds. If he's there, Joe Burrow's probably ahead of him. You know what I mean?

Like, one of these, the pocket passers who, so let's go, like, Stroud, Herbert. Yeah, I'm not going to put Burrow. But Jordan Love, which Jordan Love had more fantasy points per game than C.J. Stroud and is going after him. Those guys are just put him in a mixer and pull one out because to me, odds-wise, they're all really, really close. And again, it hurts because C.J. Stroud is such a good player, but we know historically, here's another one for you.

Historically, quarterbacks drafted in the first round who had a touchdown rate over 4% in year one, on average, they declined the following year. And if he has any kind of decline in his passing touchdown rate, then it is a disaster. Yeah, right now I have a hard time imagining C.J. Stroud throwing fewer touchdowns in year two with additional weapons and health. Like Dell was gone, no digs, missed Schultz for periods of time,

was a rookie. Yeah, rookies, the number one hardship for rookie quarterbacks is touchdowns. So I don't think that's changed. I'm just trying to give the other side. We have been a universal three-pack saying Stroud's being drafted too high. So I wanted the opportunity to kind of think through it a little bit more on my end of, like, you know, we all know what we see with our eyeballs. One of the better quarterbacks of the next generation.

He's great. All right, I'm going to go with Zay Flowers as my bus pick. Yeah. And it's a weird one. I'm going to be honest Zay Flowers as my bus pick. And it's a weird one. I'm going to be honest with you. He's a weird player, one of the weirdest I've ever seen. In fact, I'm going to start with just a wild stat comparison situation because he was a blend, Zay Flowers was,

and this is why you saw the highlights and then you went and looked at your fantasy stats and you were like, this wasn't the year that I thought I had. He was a weird blend of all or nothing where 27% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage. Okay, that was the sixth highest. But then 20% of them were 20 plus air yards.

And there were only a handful of players that had that type of mix where you had a super high AOT, which is average depth of target, or a super low and a super low, and it was these players. Listen to this. This will make sense. Rondale Moore. Okay?

Yeah. Rondale Moore in Arizona. Bombs, behind the line of scrimmage, kind of depressing, not fun. Jackson Smith and Jigba was one. Yeah. Marvin Mims was one Calvin Austin Jalen Hyatt Chris Moore so it's kind of it's kind of an athlete that a team doesn't know how to use in the right way maybe and also doesn't have prototypical wide receiver one route tree skills

or something to that extent. Now, I'm not saying Zay Flowers can't advance into that, but he is an undersized guy. He is much more Rondell Moore, right, than a Devontae Adams is because he's not built like Chase or Adams or one of these big-bodied guys. He's quick twitch. He's kind of used the gadgetry behind the line of scrimmage. And he's a respectable receiver that I think will be extremely important for the Ravens. And yet when Andrews was on the

field last year, his pace was 82 and 900 with no touchdowns. So you're undersized. You don't have that normal route tree. You're used in gadget ways. If you don't have a big play, you're disappointed. And you had a lot of opportunity without their number one, who is Mark Andrews, out on the field last year. And so to me, like right now he's going ahead of Amari Cooper. He's going ahead of George Pickens. He's going ahead of Kirk and Ridley and Tank Dell. So Zay Flowers is a player, I think,

that doesn't even have a necessarily defined home on the offense in terms of how they're going to utilize him. You bring in Derrick Henry now. I am just scared of that touchdown variability in the big plays. When they don't happen, I'm not sure Zay Flowers is a player you're happy you started that week. Because I don't know if a bunch of behind-the-line-of-scrimmage targets with no touchdowns is going to add up to what you would hope it added up to yeah flowers to me is a tremendous nfl player

and i think in an excellent wide receiver who will have four to five spike weeks so it's it's not that he will be useless for you but when he doesn't have the spike weeks it So it's not that he will be useless for you, but when he doesn't have the spike weeks, that's when it's going to be rough. To me, it's the easiest, it's the low-hanging argument, low-hanging fruit argument of

he did everything with Mark Andrews off the field. But that is everything to me. Mark Andrews is the number one target for the Ravens. He's the number one target for Lamar Jackson. And Zay Flowers was de factoed into that when Mark Andrews was missing for the second half of the season. Again, the spike weeks will happen.

The end of season four, Zay Flowers, the final five games, three of them he was top 10, four he was top 15. So the spike weeks will happen, but if it's not a spike, it's not going to be a well, it's, Zay did okay for me this week. You're going to have a

lot of weeks where you look, you took an L, and you'll look at Flowers' output and go, that's the reason why. Unfortunately, in the Lamar Jackson era, big ADP bets on wide receivers have also not turned out very well, whether it was Hollywood or Torrey Smith or who was I thinking of? Bateman.

Oh, that's who I was actually thinking of, Bateman, from years gone by. It's a tough bet because the offense just, you know, good defense. Some games they win on the legs of Lamar Jackson, and nobody has a big game. So, again, it's good to put a bow on it where these busts don't mean that these players suck. It doesn't mean that they're guaranteed to fail. It means that some things are working against them,

and it might not represent a good value on your draft day. i certainly like a lot of wide receivers going after zay flowers the ones you mentioned were like i would take most all of them cooper for sure amari cooper being behind him is is nonsensical but he is the scariest one to me where it's like i could you know a year two wide receiver who i think is exceptionally talented who's got to compete with Bateman and Nelson Aguilar as the primary wide receiver like you could see a leap forward and we could eat crow on this. I do agree with you but he's a scary

I'm not wanting to bet against him but I've been avoiding him. You're letting me do it instead. Yeah. Cool. Alright let's jump into some values. Values. All right, Jason, you're up. And please say Devontae Adams. Devontae Adams is my value if he drops into the sixth round.

Okay, he's got a ways to go. Otherwise, my value that I want to bring up is the antithesis of mike's bust and maybe maybe mention what a value is to the new listeners here sure just in terms of what the context is of what we're talking about a value to me is someone that represents like you're you're you're drafting a player at their floor and it is a really sure bet that they are going to outperform what you're having to invest to acquire this player and that they're just kind of mispriced in ADP. That's how I look at it. Someone that I think when you look at who's going around them or where this player archetype usually

slots in is significantly higher and right now it's just not happening for that player. Those are the values I try to find and when I say it's the antithesis of Mike's bust pick that's because Mike feels like there's an a too high of an ADP on a pure pocket passer well I have too low of an ADP on an exceptionally mobile rushing quarterback and that is rookie Jaden Daniels for the Washington Commanders. Right now, he is being drafted in the double-digit rounds as the quarterback 15. You can easily take him as the second quarterback on your roster if you aren't bullish on him. I am perfectly fine taking him as my number one. I have drafted him, you know, multiple rounds ahead of ADP because I think that's where he belongs, not going crazy and taking him in the fifth or anything. But like in the fifth right now is where

Anthony Richardson is being drafted. This is a, why is he being drafted there? Because mobile quarterbacks can break fantasy football. They can have exceptional spike weeks. They can finish as the wide receiver one, especially if they could combine it with passing. When you see those great, like Lamar Jackson's, you know, record breaking season was because he excelled as a passer and he was as good a rusher as we've seen in the NFL. Jaden Daniels is a remarkable rushing athlete. And even though it took him a little bit of time in college, his season you know when he won the Heisman over Caleb Williams was outstanding he looked like a great passer there there's more evidence that we've already seen to say he's a better passer than Anthony Richardson Anthony Richardson's a projection

going forward um Anthony Richardson has the size and the girth on Jaden Daniels. Yeah, he's got it. But at the same time, you know, Lamar Jackson's always been more of a Jaden Daniels type. And when I look at where he's going, you know, this is a discount Anthony Richardson. This is the only, you know, real true dual threat quarterback you're getting in the double digit rounds. You know, fantasy scoring is broken. I hate that mobile quarterbacks are so important for fantasy football when they might not be as good in the NFL. You know, Justin Fields was so great on so many weeks and then can't even be a starter in the NFL. But here's how good Jaden Daniels is at rushing. Daniels was 43% of his team's rushing yards last year. That's the third highest ever for a first-round quarterback.

At LSU, he posted the highest scramble rate of any college quarterback in their final season with 250 attempts. Scramble is what I want. Be careful, Jaden. Oh, I know. Be careful. He's made of popsicle sticks. The one thing I would say, if I could give Jaden. Be careful. Oh, I know. Be careful. Here's the one thing I would say. He's made of popsicle sticks.

The one thing I would say, if I could give Jaden Daniels a piece of advice, when you break and you run, which you are exceptional at, and you make people look foolish, next time, after you make that first guy miss, just keep your eyes open, dude. Just keep your eyes open. Oh, you think he's closing? He has to be. He has to be because

after he makes that first dude miss, he just runs right into an insane tackle. So there are some things to work out with here. But while he's active, while he's healthy, while he's on the field, I don't see him not being a good quarterback. The comp to me for Jaden Daniels in his final season has always been Kyler Murray. It's that combination of he's not the best rusher in the league. He's not Lamar Jackson, but he's so much better of a passer than a lot of these pure rushing quarterbacks. And so when you combine them both, Kyler's the comp. Well, Kyler came in in his rookie season and was the quarterback seven

with, you guessed it cliff kingsbury the offensive coordinator that now i did not guess that i was talking to the audience they're so much smarter they're like oh it's cliff it's cliff kingsbury uh look cliff kingsbury how the teams function under him number one in no no huddle right for four years first in neutral pass in each of kyler's first two years the fantasy community has gotten smarter and we know that we need to draft mobile Russian quarterbacks. For some reason in 2024, we are letting Jaden Daniels slip behind Caleb Williams, which I look dynasty. Okay. Long-term outlet outlook. Great. But I want a rookie quarterback who's going to run the ball.

That's what Jaden Daniels is going to do. if i can get him in the double digit rounds as the quarterback 15 my first or second quarterback i'm happy to do it i think he's a smoking value there i feel like the last big conversation that we had to have that was similar to the jayden daniels discussion i guess it was anthony richardson last year but before that it was trey lance year. But before that, it was Trey Lance. We haven't had that conversation in a while about if they get on the field, even if it takes them a while to acclimate as a passer, which we knew Richardson probably would. He had a game where he completed 11 of 27 passes or something like that.

It still doesn't matter, right? It still translates to fantasy value, and you just, you know, you accept the obnoxious scoring, and turn away and you close your eyes yeah take advantage man if he closes his eyes play play by the rules of your league and dominate all right so jayden daniels i look i've risen uh statistically you know what i have in in my projections on him recently as well so i'm with you on that i think it's something we can't ignore. I don't know if you know this. You actually are the highest on Jaden Daniels. He is your quarterback. There you go. 11. Yeah, I knew I'd

moved him up quite a bit. I didn't know where he landed. But yeah, if he's on the field and is the starter, which he's already taken first team reps in camp. Yeah, I mean if he doesn't get exploded. Well, right. Quick break. Back with Mike's value pick.

All right. We are going through the busts and values, individual picks on today's show. We just got done with the bust picks, and then Jason shared his first value pick for the show, which is Jaden Daniels. Mike, who you got? What if I told you there was a guy that finished last year as the running back two? Like a running back two? The.

The. The second best running back? Yeah. Okay. As in the running back two who finished with, let me do some quick calculating here, 21 touchdowns, and he's being drafted outside of the top 24 running backs. It's Raheem Mostert of the Miami Dolphins, and that's being egregiously hyperbolic and loud of, look, he's not going to be the

running back two, but he's being drafted in the back of the seventh round. RB25 on sleeper, RB28 on underdog in best ball. And here's Devon Achan, explosive young player, one of the fastest guys in the league. But right now Raheem Mostert is being drafted completely, completely like it's locked in. A-chan's going to have the vast majority of the work. It will not be a timeshare in the slightest. It's just going to be A-chan, A-chan over and over. And I think that that is just a very silly thing to think about Raheem Mostert. Sure, he's old, but the Miami Dolphins, with their actions, they gave him a two-year extension. They said, we're going to roll this thing back. They have a day three rookie, which I'm not going to factor him into the plans because they had other depth

that they needed to replace. But the fact that Raheem Mostert is going so, so late, and even if he's nowhere, even if he's not in the top 10, it doesn't matter. You're getting a tremendous value of a running back that you can play. Going back and look, I don't know why the Miami Dolphins would look at what Devon H and his health through last year's training camp till the end of the season and say, yeah, this is the guy. We're going to give him just 20 plus opportunities every single week. They're not going to do that. In the final two weeks, the final week of the season, Raheem Mostert was not playing for the Miami Dolphins.

Devon Achan was the starter. He played 63% of the snaps. He got 11 opportunities. Why? Because Jeff Wilson got opportunities as well. And so for the thought process that the Dolphins are going to completely flip and move to Devon H., I think it is absolutely crazy. The offense is going to be spectacular.

I don't like talking about that offense at all with the idea of them just handing the keys to somebody. I think that's just such a – I'm with you on that. If you listen to Mike McDaniel talk, he talks about the fact that like Raheem leads the room. Like he talks about it this off season, like Raheem's the leader of the room and then we've got great players in the room. So, you know, the age is what scares people off.

There's a bit of a efficiency problem with the most season that reminds me of Debo finishing number two, right. When he got all those running back opportunities and like he wasn't being drafted as number two either because we all looked at it and said boy that was just that was a special year and i think we have that with most yeah and it's it's 100 it's it's age and hn and we've seen this uh just historically running backs with 15 or more total touchdowns. If you're young, your ADP just gets on a rocket ship and takes off. If you're older, people are like, eh, I'm going to overlook it. And honestly, the truth is, for a lot of old running backs, I would overlook it as well.

Except this is the same thing. This is a run back. This is not a new team where the old running back, we're going to see if he can take over. This is the exact same team with the exact same offensive scheme and for the most part the same offensive players. They had 20 carries inside the five. A-chan's not going to get 80% of those.

Raheem Mostert is going to be involved. He's going to be involved in the passing game. So for him to be going outside of the top 24, I think it is – it's a free starting running back. Yeah, a free starting running back. And they will – I mean, yeah, he's older. They just signed him to a two-year extension this offseason. Oh, yeah.

Yeah, I got that done. Yeah, thanks, Andy. All right, you yeah. Yeah, I got that done. Yeah. Thanks, Andy. All right. You wanted me to talk about my value pick. Yes. Yes, I do. This is a tough one. No, you can't use a ticket on this.

We got to hear what's going on. All right. All right. This is actually a really tough one to talk about. I got about halfway through your value pick, and I was like, I don't want to do this. I was like, I do not. I was like, I got to pick somebody else. So somebody else so I did no no I'm sticking I thought you made a mid-show look the the name that Jason is uh just hold on hold on can you use it can I get the nasty boy oh no steel underpants

you need a brother giving me the steel it's Qu giving me the steel. It's Quentin Johnston, all right? It's Quentin Johnston. Yeah. Hey, the value opportunity is there. He's undrafted in most leagues, if not the last pick in your draft. I'm going to ask you some questions. I'm going to try to set the table so that you can at least just accept two seconds worth of Quentin Johnston as a value.

Okay. I'm going to clear my biases and just listen. Yeah, I would clear out all the film from last year as well because he did not have a good season. He was terrible. But Mike Williams gone. Keenan Allen gone. Let me ask you some questions to set the table.

Did the Panthers have a good passing offense last year? No. Did the Broncos have a good passing offense last year? No. Did the Broncos have a good passing offense last year? No. How about the New England Patriots? Did they have a good passing offense? No. What about the Chicago Bears? No. And neither did the next team you said. What about the Jets?

No. Wait, they had a passing? Listen, those are terrible, awful, and any of those have good quarterbacks that I mentioned? Any of those teams? Wait, they had a passing? So, listen, those are terrible, awful. And any of those have good quarterbacks that I mentioned? Any of those teams? I mean, you could argue Justin Fields-ish, but he's gone. So, you know, Bryce Young and then Russ, gone. Okay.

The Patriots? Yeah, gone. Not very good. So, bad quarterback, bad offenses. And yet, there were diamonds in the rough. There were nasty boys. Oh, you want that? Yeah. Adam Thielen in Carolina.

Cortland Sutton in Denver. Kendrick Bourne, before he got hurt, had big games in New England. You had, when Cooper Cup was out, this was one where you did have a good quarterback, but you saw Tutu Atwell have big games before Cooper Cup returned and Puka broke out. DJ Moore in Chicago, a bad passing offense. He obviously is a much more talented player than

Quentin Johnson. And obviously Garrett Wilson got a baseline level of stuff done in New York. So my argument for Quentin Johnson is you have the best quarterback in Justin Herbert that any of those teams, minus maybe Matthew Stafford of all the teams I mentioned. I always mention it this way, which is they get the ball. Every team gets the ball half the time. You get offensive possessions no matter how bad you end up on the stat sheet, and then you end up with these players that are going to be started on your fantasy rosters, which is what happened last year with Cortland Sutton. He got started.

That's what happened with Thielen. He was on fire to begin the year. Quentin Johnson, here's what I know. Justin Herbert's a good quarterback. Yes. Harbaugh's a good coach. Yes. And he's going to play every down.

Yeah. Because you don't have a choice. And you could take every bit of offseason talk about quentin johnston which is you know they're they're trying to talk them up and be positive and look you could throw it all out the window they're going to give them the shot they invested a first round pick that they are pot committed on quentin johnston being part of their future and i don't think any of us believe Joshua Palmer is the kind of player that just can take over an offense.

And Ladd McConkie's a rookie. He may end up being the best player that you have. But I think Quentin Johnston, for free, is one of those players that is in the category of he'll probably be on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues, and he'll probably be picked up in week one or week two by almost every single person because they're going to give him the opportunity to do it. And he is a first round pedigree guy. I went and watched every single snap of him last year. We talked

about it earlier on the show. You might not have listened earlier in the offseason. Congrats on that. You didn't have to hear me talk about Quentin Johnston again. But they look for big plays in the Greg Roman offense. Roman's come out and talked about being more balanced. I've been saying all offseason you're probably undervaluing the passing game in terms of the chargers because you have a great quarterback and you don't run every play, especially if your defense gives up points.

So to me, it's a starting wide receiver that may be the best starting wide receiver fantasy wise on this roster that's free so you're talking about an offense that has like no one being drafted a wide receiver so i'm gonna be the guy that said his name i me i jason moore am the one that said it i actually love every single thing you said and i agree with every single thing you said I this is why I honestly I was maybe going to make Ladd-McConkie my value pick because I agree with all the things behind that's fine yeah that's fine the the the system and the reality that Quentin Johnson finds himself in that's what I agree with I just don't think Quentin might be good enough to actually succeed. I'm a huge Ladd believer.

So everything you said, I agree. I just shift the person. Yeah, I mean, you have to pay an eighth-round pick for Ladd, and you get Quentin for free if you want to do the bet. Both of those are value spots if they do break out. And, you know, it'll be very interesting to watch what that offense does because it's being disregarded. There's,

they're saying the right things to you're hearing about. He will be used more, not just as a downfield threat, but we're going to use them as a playmaker. Like he made plays after the catch last year on a handful of times when you're like, okay, that's a skillset.

And because, because he had that and that was one of his trump cards in college. He was great after the catch. They didn't focus on using him that way last year. So that's

the hope for me. He's also their biggest touchdown target physically and also a player that is 22. So I'm going to give him just a small, tiny bit of margin at 6'4", 215, 22 years old with a great quarterback that maybe, just maybe, he's draft-worthy in fantasy at some point in time. I will say the value to drafting him is that you're going're going to see what this team what this offense what this system looks like week one how he comes across he's the type of uh pick you want to make your last pick in a draft where week one you're going to learn information you know if if he comes out

and has seven eight nine ten targets and they're utilizing him in a great way or if you come out week one and all of a sudden lad mcconkey's got a 30 percent target share you're gonna know enough information to go into that week one waivers and be like i i gotta hold this guy or i've got something here or he's expendable and so i i like that i i do think the real value pick here is that the chargers passing offense is undervalued. That doesn't mean that it's great or going to be a complete league winner, but right now a Justin Herbert-led NFL offense is being completely left for dead, and that's dumb. And Kyle pointed out the hilarity that one of the best comps to the situation you could ever have is Mike Williams with the Chargers

because Mike Williams with the Chargers played 10 games as a rookie. He had 95 yards as a rookie. He came back the next year and was the wide receiver 24. So it's not often a situation that you're looking for. A bum first year. Yeah.

But you've also had players that have emerged and it's ironic that Mike Williams, a big-bodied Los Angeles Charger rookie, who was a first-round pick, right? Yes, he was. Maybe these big guys, maybe his uniform didn't fit right. I don't know. Devontae Adams needed some time. He's like, I'm too big.

Let me develop. So we'll see. That's the best I can do, guys. That's the best I can do with Quentin Johnston, and that's the best we're going to do on today's episode because we'll see. That's the best I can do, guys. That's the best I can do with Quentin Johnston, and that's the best we're going to do on today's episode because we are done talking about Quentin Johnston, and that's over. So ultimatedraftkid.com.

Get in on the opportunity to win five spots to the Scotty Fish Bowl. We'll be giving those out. If you already bought the UDK, just be rest assured you're, like, entered to win those as well, and that giveaway we'll pick some names on Monday. You'll have a little bit of time there. We'll get into a mock draft next week.

I think our Thursday is 4th of July. Correct. Next week, but then guess what? We're on to three shows a week, so you're getting a Saturday show next week. It's July, Mike. Then it'll be August. It's every day.

Say goodbye to your family. Alright, that'll do it for the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Shout out to Al Borland over there. The Falcon, Inducers Alley, thank you guys. We'll catch you on our next episode. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on twitter at the ff ballers