Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Early WR Rankings Countdown: 20-11 + Dynasty Download - Fantasy Football Podcast for 4/9

Episode Date: April 9, 2024

Early fantasy football rankings for 2024! On today's podcast, find out which big name WRs did not make the top 10, and who looks like a draft day value. Plus, advice for dynasty managers deciding if it’s time to rebuild or keep fighting for a title! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for April 9th, 2024. Dynasty Pass content available now in the UDK+ at UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on Twitter Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,

including a new chance to win cash every minute in the app. Get into the game with Monopoly Double Play at McDonald's. While supplies last, one in five chances to win game piece prizes at outset, chances to win Double Play prizes based on time of code entry, and draw prizes based on number of entries in each draw. See rules in the app. Get a credit card annual fee waiver and earn C-plus points faster with the Scotiabank Ultimate Package and bank more entertainment. Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages. Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

Welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers. Back at it April 9th. Looks like the world did not end. Was it supposed to end with the eclipse? I don't know. The eclipse is... I think so. I think every eclipse is supposed to end with the eclipse i think so i think every eclipse is supposed to end the world it stopped all photosynthesis but the next one the next one

watch watch out i didn't get a lot of that it just was um it's just like captivating everybody does seem a very classic american take because this was a North American eclipse. They did call it. If any eclipse is going to ruin the Earth, it's going to be ours. Our eclipse. Yeah. And there is not another eclipse for another 22 years. I think for us.

But yeah, it's just for us. There's totally more eclipses, but not in my America. I think the next American eclipse only crosses Alaska. Oh, really? So maybe there'll be a big boon in Airbnbs up there. I don't think we even consider that. Part of the- Yeah, I know the technicality, but-

It seems like- There's a lot of Alaskan listeners offended right now. Contiguous US will be August 22nd, 2044. It does say contiguous, and this is north dakota in montana okay yeah maybe it's the one after that but i know that people were very excited it was it was very fun um so and and it uh it came and it went and they did see i did see it posted the great american eclipse is what it. I'm not joking. I saw that in a news story. The Great American

Eclipse. It's ours. It's the best one of all time. Anybody's eyes feel worse? Slightly? Yeah. Just a little bit? I had those 99 cent glasses that protect you, but I don't know if they did enough. It's a lot of trust you put

into some random Chinese manufacturer. Oh, that's a lot of good enough it's a lot of trust you put into like uh some random chinese manufacturer yeah oh that's how oh no that's how come on that's how they win the cold war they blind us all i did see uh day of a man one i think that was getting geopolitical but it was there was a recall there was There was like, don't use this brand. Well, at least they found out first. I mean. Let me ask you this, Jay. When you close your eyes, what do you see?

I just see like a. A circle? Two circles. I see the Cheshire cat smile. Well, whether you can see or not, we are counting down our early wide receiver rankings on today's show. Going to count it down from number 20 on our consensus. Early rankings, right?

I mean, it is very early. It is pre-draft rankings. But who doesn't love a ranking show? No, they're fun. And there is a difference here between how the rankings are made and kind of what they mean. So for instance, when I'm doing these really early rankings, it's a matter of kind of who would I draft? I try to take that approach like each one, like if I'm on the clock, would I draft this guy or would I draft that guy? Not necessarily where I think they will finish. Like when we stack guys out in the ultimate draft kit,

this is like where we project that if everybody hits their most probable outcome, that's where they will end. And it feels like a different practice and an important practice to do it this way. Yeah, it's a way to get a lay of the land, your first glance at what 2024 might look like. And so we've put all of our rankings together and we'll be counting them down on today's show. The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now,

ultimatedraftkit.com, or rather the Dynasty Pass is available right now. This is your pre-order chance for the UDK. It's one of the most fundamental keys to getting ready for your draft, setting that foundation for your team. And you can learn more about the Dynasty pass and the UDK at ultimate draft kit.com.

An announcement. That's my to announce our announcements. This is huge. Well, I did. We've been teasing. I've been saying we, we have big plans for the draft.

And I didn't just mean the food we're going to order while we watch the draft. Which will be plentiful. Yes. Instead, I meant, well, I wanted to share this, but we weren't allowed to share it until right now. The thing I'm about to share. Any minute. No, we are doing a very, special first time ever fantasy footballers draft special it will be live it will be on nfl plus and it will be starting right towards the very

end of round one thursday april 25th it will be our live and unique reactions to round one and how it impacts fantasy football. Yeah, the first time that the NFL media conglomerate is actually doing a fantasy featured reaction to the first round of the NFL draft and we get to participate

in that on NFL Plus. So excited. It's going to be great. So your NFL Draft Day just got better. That's true. Please come hang out with us. It's going to be a lot of fun. And, yeah, I mean, the draft is so close. We are, yeah, just mere weeks away and going to live.

I mean, the fact that it's live is going to be fun. The fact that it's on NFL Plus is just kind of a little cherry on top. So extremely excited for it. Yeah, it's going to be a blast. In previous years, we've done some live reaction stuff kind of the day after round one. Yeah, that's for cowards. No, this is going to be fresh.

Think about it. Instant reactions. Instant. And then we do have a quick question today. Dynasty download. One of the dumbest questions I've ever seen. I'm going to be honest. Philosophically, this could actually be one of the dumbest questions we've ever seen.

But we'll discuss. The question comes in. It says, how do you know when your dynasty team can't compete anymore? Do I sell? I have no idea. Because you've never been there. That's what we're saying here. The question says your dynasty.

My dynasty team always competes. So our dino league has been, what are we at, eight years, nine? Somewhere around there. And Andy's team has never been in rebuild mode, ever. I have torn down to the nubs once. I've never torn down to the nubs once i've never torn down to the nubs i i had one year where i traded a couple pieces to get younger but that was it you began a process yeah but like you you did yeah but it was one year but it's still it's that's a teardown you can rebuild over one year so you you made the decision at one point in time.

I remember it because you said it out loud. You said, I can't win the championship this year. I'm going to forego a playoff run. You gave up playoffs one year, and you rebuilt. I mean, you have B. John and Breece Hall. You don't get those guys without that approach. Yeah, and I will say that that – so I guess the answer to this question when we're not just joking and we're saying like, you know, for me, when did that process exist?

It was mid-season. You know, because, you know, I think if you know before the season that like your team just flat can't compete, you're not asking this question. This is a question – Yeah, you already know. Yeah, you already know. You're like, you've've got nothing nobody wants to trade for any of your assets you're gonna be in it for the long haul I think primarily most dynasty managers might not know when and for me in my experience the only time that I did make that decision was when it looked like the playoffs

aren't gonna happen for me this year and so because of that, it's like, I'm, I'm out of the running. Let me focus now shift before the trade deadline to focusing for next year. So I think it's very important though, since your team is being brought up to, to let people know in the dynasty community that it's not necessarily this multi-year rebuilding process all of the time i you know i i see this so much people like they'll unload everything and then the process has to take multiple years like there is a uh i don't know like a shortcut to a rebuild that's possible with a team as well and um you you know, you don't, I mean, to answer the question, do you know whether your dynasty team can compete?

There is a point when you're not sure. Like Jason went into that year going, maybe, and then like halfway through, it's like, no. So, I mean, there is some discovery there. And to Jason's point earlier, like if you know for a fact you can't compete earlier in the season you're not asking this question and I think if you're not entirely sure then you should err on the side of you can compete uh I I've seen in a lot of different leagues people that have a team that can compete and they they ruin their chances at a title because they're

like I'm not talking about anyone in this room are you no i mean papa josh definitely did it okay uh but it's not just focused on his idiocy he was an idiot but that was i'm talking about a broader spectrum of like you do see it a lot where people are like they're hemming and hawing, and I think sometimes it's just fun. You know, I wonder if that was the itch for Josh, Papa Josh. If it was like, I think it would be fun to tear it down. For me, fun is in championships. Sure. I think when you're looking at your roster, you have to have at least a few impact players. If you just have a whole bunch of steady players on your team

and you don't have someone on that roster, in your starting roster, I would say at least two where it's on any given week, these can be the guys who can just take over, and if they go off, I win. Because in my opinion, if you don't have those, and that's also in redraft, if you don't have a few of those types of players, then when you get into the playoffs, you can't win. Let me ask you this, though. You know my team in Dynasty.

I have an older team. Christian McCaffrey, Josh Allen, but then, you know, Mostert, Kamara, Evans, Lockett, Keenan Allen, Kelsey. Did I, in your opinion, did I wait too long? In your opinion. If you were me, like last year, this team outscored everybody else in the league by hundreds of points, but nobody wants those players now. I mean, even McCaffrey to a degree.

Like people aren't. Right. I'm not getting offers of like the world for McCaffrey. So did, if no one wants those players, is that past that point for you? So if I were you, I would have done the same thing because your team was absolutely good enough to win a title and you've got to go after that title. If you're always trying to play that game of, well, I want to get younger. I mean, it's always good to stay good and get younger when you can.

But when you are really, really close to a dynasty, that's when you need to be a buyer, not a seller, or to a championship. And you had a very good team. Unfortunately for you, fortunately for everyone else, you did not win the championship. You know, and eventually for Mike, eventually you're going

to be holding the bag. Like Mike and I's co-managed team is, the answer to this question, is when they all retire at the same time, which our roster is going to do in about three years. I'd say the hard part, especially for Andy's team, what you will have to navigate, the challenge, is because your team is so old and you are always kind of on that verge of should I go for it or should I not, and the way that you play,

you have no draft picks. Correct. So there could be a masterful move up your sleeve that you just don't know about it right now, but there's also the possibility that you make one more run for it and it completely falls apart, and now you have all old players and you have no picks. Here's the truth.

So rebuilding is like it is far away. You can compete for nine straight years. I did it. I mean, for some people, they think that you have to reset along the way. At least so far, I haven't paid the tax bill. Nope, not yet. I've been told I will, so we'll find out. All right, we're going to jump into the rankings right now.

We don't have any – oh, we do have a bit of news. Just one quick bit of news. So if you joined us for our surprise Saturday show, it was surprise live on Friday. It was a ton of fun. Thank you everyone for coming in here. During the show, we were getting live, more

updated information about the Rasheed Rice situation and that he had a certain amount of marijuana in the car and what was being reported was in Texas, this will end up being a felony. That was misreported so that what was in his car is just a misdemeanor so that there is a difference

there is there is a pretty big difference in in punishment between ounces and grams so we just want to make sure that we got that information after we were done with the show and just passing it along i believe we're talking about him on today's show yeah as well so um let's jump into it wide receivers all right as i said at the top we're counting it down from 20 to 11 half ppr rankings that's what we based it off of and um we'll talk about the range of outcomes for these players this is the way that they ended up in our very early rankings this is not the rankings that we have in the Ultimate Draft Kit. Those will come out after the NFL draft and after we stat out every player from every team like we do every single year.

But this will be a quick overview sharing some positives about these players, some concerns, range of outcomes, and then we'll get to the top 10 on Thursday. But at number 20 DJ Moore who will be playing at 27 this year his best ball average draft position right now is 15 so we've got him a little bit below that for redraft Jason is the lowest right now at 24 I am at 21 Mike at 18 and last year he was the wide receiver six so all of us are staring down that uh spectacular fantasy finish and saying uh maybe a bit of fool's gold it was difficult to know when you could play him last year because he had such humongous games

uh to that degree uh just to speak to his humongous games, his top three performances accounted for just under 100 fantasy points. On the course of the entire season, he scored 238 fantasy points. So that just shows you, okay, you won those three weeks, but he had a lot of duds uh that that you know were uh actively hurting your team obviously finishes the wide receiver six so you know if you're in best ball you've got a ton of those points um added to your roster it was an absolutely great pick in best ball but um I think it was a rough process if you had him knowing when you could start him and hopefully um you know i mean he was in your lineup most every week so you're going to start him but you're taking a lot of l's and it's a completely different team this will be a rookie quarterback throwing him the ball

maybe caleb williams and cj stroud i i would put my bet against that. And then as you guys are talking, I'm trying to go through the Rolodex here. Has DJ Moore played in his career ever with another really, really strong wide receiver? Like he will be playing with Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen, to me, will be far and away the best wide receiver he's ever had to compete for targets with. Yeah, for context, last year, because DJ Moore had 136 targets, the second wide receiver target leader was Darnell Mooney with only 61.

I mean, their fourth wide receiver was Chase Claypool with 14. He did play with a great one. Yeah, baby. Devin S. Scrup. Devin Funches. Well, his rookie year was Funches and Curtis Samuel. Okay. I thought you were going to bring up Christian McCaffrey.

I was worried. I'd be like, okay, that's a fair point. But the point being, rookie quarterback, another number one, maybe a rookie number one coming up with the draft. DJ Moore is a really volatile pick here, but he's a great player. It wasn't fluky that he finally had a breakout. He is a stud, and I want it clear. I've got him down at wide receiver 24.

I'll talk about why. It's really the combination of Keenan Allen and a rookie quarterback. Those two reasons make me a little bit skeptical, but obviously he's a super talented athlete, can help you win weeks, and if they get him open in space a little bit more as defenses don't have to completely focus on him, it could be a really good thing for him. But we talk a lot on this show about rookie quarterbacks and how the support of their number one wide receiver historically has been really, really bad.

It's rare for them to have a top 24 wide receiver, but we wanted to update this. You know, things have changed and it brings up all the time, like the last few years, you know, the NFL is always changing. and when you look at too long of a timeline uh you get outdated information so we kind of updated our study here what is this yeah what is this welcome to new information i feel like this could be a setup to dunk on me but go go on it might be uh teams are certainly letting rookie quarterbacks throw the ball more. From 2011 to 2018, eight of the 25 rookie quarterback-led teams were in the top half. So that's like 32% of those quarterbacks were top half and passing. Since 2019, 10 of the 14 are top half. So 71%, almost the exact opposite.

Wow. So they are letting rookie quarterbacks throw the ball more. Their completion percentage has gone up from 58.9% to 62.6%. So those are really good. Yeah, but give me fantasy numbers. Yeah, and so the wide receiver floors are higher than 2019. Rookie quarterbacks are sustaining more wide receiver 24 through wide receiver 36 production. So that's still not like those aren't great fantasy football league winning numbers, but the floor has raised a little bit with rookie quarterbacks.

I still worry about ceiling. I mean, I've still got DJ Moore at 24. Do you have the names, though, of the wide receivers? I can grab them. Because I'm thinking through it. Part of the equation is going to be, yeah, maybe they're throwing a bit more. You're going to need a massive target share, though, where DJ Moore with Keenan Allen is anybody.

Maybe both of them are just like taking all the targets like the Miami Dolphins and then it's okay. I've got a big question. Maybe this will help. Okay. What if Minnesota had the number one pick? How would you view Justin Jefferson?

With Caleb Williams being the dude. If he was their quarterback. He would probably be. Would you? He'd be in the top five wide receivers. He would not be the number one. Isn't he in the top five right now? Yeah.

Not for me. I don't think he's in my top five. I think he's outside of it. I guess I just wonder if how much of it is trust in DJ Moore, the talent versus trust in the, you know, if it was Justin Jefferson, do you trust that more like to demand the target show? you know Justin Jefferson will get it yes with a rookie the question will be whether DJ Moore can when you have Cole commit Keenan Allen um you know DeAndre Swift will catch the football and um you know that's kind of why we have him ranked where he's

ranked yeah I get it obviously DJ Moore's great he's ranked. Yeah, I get it. Obviously, DJ Moore's great. He's no Justin Jefferson. DJ Moore, since his rookie year, has not finished outside the top 24 at wide receiver. So he's got that kind of good baseline. He was the McLaurin until last year, just always around 20. And he's done it with poor quarterback play. So if Caleb Williams comes in and is allowed to throw more, which it seems like modern day NFL is allowing you to do that, then it could work out really well for you. What's the stat with Chicago? Don't they have, like, they've never had a 4,000 yard passer. Ever. It's

something insane like that. I don't know if it's 3,500. I think it's 4,000, but that's just wild. That is wild. I'm unfamiliar with that stat, but even just 4,000, if that's what it is, that seems darn near impossible. Kyle will dig up the leading passer in the history of the chicago bears and uh send that to me his name is eric kramer

with 3 838 yards wow that's your that's your like benchmark so let me ask you this he will not is caleb williams the best quarterback they've ever had? Not like will he be. Yeah, I mean, we'll find out. It depends on how you define best, I guess. Most prolific? It probably will be. The Jim McMahon people. Yeah, that's why I said that.

They're not listening here. Let's be honest. No one's coming here with a pitchfork over Jim McMahon. All right, all right. We'll take a break. Come back with number 19. Number 19. Finished at wide receiver 34 last year.

Just 25 years old. Hugely disappointing season in fantasy production. I have him the highest at 17. Jason at 21. Mike at 19. It's Jalen Waddell of the Miami Dolphins. 72 for 1,004. Played 14 games, limped off the field in all of them. 14 of them.

I mean, it was kind of a running joke. Paul Pierce, every single game. He would limp off. You'd be like, oh, no. And then he'd come back, and it's definitely not 100% the rest of those games. But coming off of a big fantasy production year, obviously it was great for Tyreek last season, but he went from number seven to number 34. And points per game went down.

Targets went down. Ironically, it seems kind of funny to me because we know how good Jalen Waddell really is. Jalen Waddell's targets have dropped three consecutive years. He peaked as a rookie. In totality, yeah. As opposed to. I'm saying last year, 14 games, 104 targets. 14 games.

And then 2022 and 17 games, 117 targets. I'm just saying give him three more games, and he's going to be right around that 117 mark, if not higher. Okay. That's all I mean. This is a fun fact, Mike. You don't need to break it down. Well, this is part of my argument for Jalen Waddell,

that he had a higher catch percentage than his sophomore season. He actually had a higher target share this year than his sophomore season by a couple points. I think it was a weird outlier year for Jalen Waddell. Perhaps while Tyreek is there, the hopes and the dreams of when he was the wide receiver seven, like here comes the new, Debo Samuel's not the right archetype, but that player, you know, with McDaniel coming over, we're going to feed this guy.

That ceiling is gone, but I think that it was just a very bizarre season for Jalen Waddell that he will have a bounce back from. To the tune of range of outcomes for him. To the tune of being back to being a solid wide receiver too. All right, Jason, you have him at the lowest of the three of us. It's all really close together. Obviously, this is not really 1A, 1B. Tyreek is the 1A plus.

Tyreek is the 1A. I've got him the lowest because I had him in experience. You're mad. This is just the experience. He's got a consistency rating in his last 17 games played of a C, basically scoring 10.5 half PPR points only 41.2% of the time. So it's been a bad experience. The one thing that I could say in his, you know, if I'm defending him with hopes and dreams of brighter days. Obviously, we've seen it two years ago where he was great. And in that, he played on average 74% of the snaps.

This last year, while he was struggling with every game injuries, he was down to 68% of the snaps. So it leads me to conclude. I don't think that they want Jalen Waddell on the field sub-70% of the time. That wasn't how they used him a couple of years ago, and I expect if he's healthy and doing well, he'll be better for fantasy. Does he have the potential to be a wide receiver one in your book? Yeah.

Potentially, yes. If it worked out the right way? I think so. Because of his athleticism, the game-breaking speed and over-the-top touchdowns, he could absolutely finish. And if DJ Moore or Waddle was your wide receiver too, who would you be more comfortable with? That's an interesting question.

That is a really good question. With at wide receiver too, do you swing for the fences and hope that DJ Moore is incredible? I think Jalen Waddell is such a safer pick for a bounce back. To me, Jalen Waddell is... I didn't hear a good answer. I'm trying to think of that through it out loud.

Jalen Waddell, to me, is one of the most obvious bounce back guys from last year's wide receiver 34, which is his ADP reflects that. People aren't buying that he's a low end wide receiver. which is his ADP reflects that people aren't buying that he's a low end yeah like which one do you want uh I'll go Jalen Waddle I think I'll go DJ Moore um as far as hoping for the upside you you've got one guy who's coming off of a wide receiver six season versus a down season you say well who's got the better quarterback if things

hit right could be Caleb Williams um and then you say well maybe they're both the number two target on their team but Tyreek definitely is the alpha Keenan is great but Keenan could be you know closer to done than than Tyreek is moving over so I think I lean on the more side you always lean on the more side well I, I mean, yeah. When you got a surname like that, Rashi rice number 18. Yeah. I didn't give you nothing. Mike's got him at 14.

I've got him at 22. Obviously this one is incredibly difficult with, let's not even consider that right now. That's what I'm saying. I have him ranked currently not trying to guess. Is he going to miss games? How many games will he miss? This is like, just he suits up for a, uh, 17. Yeah. This is to me, currently not trying to guess. Is he going to miss games? How many games will he miss?

He suits up for 17. Yeah, this is, to me, the rise of Rishi Rice over the second half of really taking over and becoming the focal point, or at least the 1B focal point for the Kansas City

Chiefs. After the bye week, he was, let's see, he was averaging almost nine targets a game and was the wide receiver 4, 12, 10, and 16 in that time period. A couple not great games, but he was a rookie. So he, to me, looks like he will be locked in to be the number one wide receiver. But it's also strange because you watch him play and it's not prototypical wide receiver stuff. There's still plenty of, we've got to figure out how to get Rice the ball. Just let him go.

That's why I kind of disagree. I think he'll be the number one fantasy-producing wide receiver for the Chiefs. But I don't think at all he'll be schemed the way that a prototypical number one is schemed or Tyreek was. Like game plans could not include him. And that's not the way you describe a CeeDee Lamb or Tyreek or Jamar Chase. So that's my hesitation. You added Hollywood Brown.

Hollywood Brown, who has, you he's he's been a one before uh on a couple of different teams so i i'm a little less uh i guess excited about that because a lot of his production was uh yards after the catch and being schemed open in the in the flat and things like that very he'll be used a lot by Andy Reid, but I could definitely see some consistency issues. I've got him at 19 and I am factoring in, we didn't really sit down and talk about prior to this, how are we factoring in off-field things. I took a look at right now, if I were to draft him today, where would I draft him? It would be at 19 because there is a little bit of worry there. If I knew for sure he was playing 17,

I would have him higher than my ranking of 19. After the bye week last year, and they weren't all great games, but he was very involved. His snap percentage went up, which is what you want to see in the second half of a rookie wide receiver. You want to see more and more involvement as they go, kind of pointing towards year two, taking that next leap. But he was already the wide receiver 14 during that stretch. And, you know, you saw that. You've seen this with this team and coaching staff. And you've got Tyree Kill, rookie year, had 83 targets. Next year jumps up to 105 targets. This was a player who they were still learning how to get involved in this offense

who is clearly right now a very important, maybe the best piece of their wide receiver core. So I like him taking a step up from where he finished last year, and he finished pretty good. Okay. Finished well. Superman. That was good. Okay. Finished well. Superman, that was good. Thank you. And his yards per route run against zone was pretty excellent,

which is what Patrick Mahomes is going to have to deal with probably for the rest of his career. Does Travis Kelsey take a half step down moving forward? With all the moving pieces, I think that Rasheed Rice is – I think that he would be great for fantasy, assuming games played. One touchdown of his seven were beyond 11 yards. So I'm looking at some notes about his yards after catch per reception might be unsustainably high.

They are, yes. It's like I said, it was more gimmicky stuff for Rice. This wasn't true. I'm a really clean tactician, Keenan Allen, running great routes. There's not a lot of downfield stuff. Yeah, but what blew my mind in that is i'm looking at the yards uh after catch per reception leaders over the last five years uh and it was debo samuel mccall hardman right debo samuel yeah debo samuel aj brown and debo samuel followed by mccall hardman and debo Samuel. Goodness gracious. Yeah. I'll tell you who's not unsustainably high.

Debo Samuel. Yeah, he's unbelievable. I'm reading through this list. I was like, wait, how could you? I feel like he is on there six times in five years. We got to move on. Number 17 is Stephon Diggs, 30 years old, now in Houston. The big trade.

Last year, 160 targets, only caught 107 of them. 1183 in the yardage, 8 touchdowns, finished as the wide receiver 10, but the story was the second half. Commanded a bunch of targets, didn't do much with them, changed an offensive

coordinator. They didn't like him. Didn't come down with that many contested catches in that span, and catches in those, in those, in that span. And he did have, I mean, if you remember, he had the big drop late in the season.

And so his targets per route run was still similar over the back half. We will see him with CJ Stroud. And a lot of people want to know how that whole situation breaks down. Saw a little promo video of Stefan Diggs with the Houston houston helmet on today you know doing workouts for the camera um yeah we've had more time to digest it since the last time we talked about digs landing here i'm a little less bullish than i was initially i still believe he'll be the number one target at the very least to start the season i love that this is a high flyingflying, down-the-field passing attack, and I think that that will utilize him better than the Joe Brady version of the

Bills offense used, Stephon Diggs. So in those ways, it's good, but you can't really be like, this is a quarterback upgrade. No matter how great you think C.J. Stroud is, he had Josh Allen. And then you go, well, now there's more competition for targets. You know, he was competing with Gabe Davis. Now you've got legit Nico Collins, Tank Dell, whoever's open, C.J. Stroud's going to throw the ball to. So I've got him at 16. He finishes the wide receiver 10 last year.

He's getting older. I got him at 19. He's a wide receiver 2. Yeah, yeah, I think so. And he could surprise. He could make the transition and have one more great year in him. He could. Part of the problem is it's terrifying. It's a really scary pick

when wherever you're drafting him there's going to be great players with certainty around their situation. Right around the ADP of Stephon Diggs. He's going to be a difficult draft button push. So let me ask you this, because this is really what it comes down to.

If you have to place a $1 bet or all your money, you've got to put your house on. He exceeds. That's very different. Yeah, yeah. We're going, because I want it to matter. He either. Started with a dollar, and then he went like, yeah, let's go house. He either exceeds expectations and is a really

good fantasy asset or he completely fails and is a bust of a pick which one is more likely exceeds if it has to be a complete disaster i guess i would go exceeds but I would put my house on. He will finish probably behind what his ADP is. Oh, okay. We'll talk a lot more about him. I know it. Number 16, Brandon Ayuk, 26 years old, finished at 14 last year. Current San Francisco 49er. Presently a 49er, although his social media would tell you he may not be for long.

Super efficient. That was something that I think was unique about Brendan Ayoub is that he doesn't have to touch the ball that much to make an impact. You'll see this every time you watch the 49ers. I mean, 75 catches for 1,300 yards, played 16 games, seven touchdowns. Touchdowns could, you know, the kind of plays he makes down the field, they could be higher. He could have a higher touchdown season.

He's much more of the lower volume, big yardage, yards per catch type of guys. So that comes with a little bit of fear, I think, for fantasy players, myself included. Yeah, I mean, we talk about he was very consistent. He was. We talk about he was very efficient. He was.

But when you have to be, you know, when you talk about the percentage of deep balls that he caught, it was awesome. Like, really great numbers. Those things are all scary to me. They outline what a talented wide receiver he is, what a great season he had. But I don't want to have to have outlandishly high yards per outrun numbers to be happy and outlandishly high catch percentage on deep targets and bank on this repeating. So to me, I see those as yellow flags. Not to take anything away from the talent of the wide receiver, but I was surprised while looking up some stats for the Bears,

I did not realize that the 49ers led the league in fewest passing attempts, also known as were last in fewest passing attempts. No, they were last in passing attempts. They weren't last in fewest. They led the league in fewest. They can't be last in fewest. They did lead the league in fewest passing attempts. And that's how I'm going to say it. No, that's

fine. You can't take it away from me. They led the league in fewest. My point is he has to be super duper efficient. And he was. Congratulations. But that makes me really scared of drafting him locking in a repeat. Is it just the Shanahan system? Because you read all those Debo numbers,

and the Debo numbers were, I mean... Debo ebbed and flowed, though. Right, but I'm just saying they exceed on these types of things. Well, here's the deal. Two years in that Shanahan system, almost the exact same receptions. Year one, 1,015 yards on 78 receptions. This year, 1,342 yards on 75 receptions year one 50 uh 1015 yards on 78 receptions this year 1342 yards and 75 receptions so almost the same touchdowns and if you tell me 13 yards per reception or 18 yards per reception

which one is the outlier based on the whole of the nfl it's definitely the 18 which was this i think that's just highlighting you know he's had three straight years where he's right around 13 to catch and then he jumps up to 18 with some big plays that maybe it could come down a little bit he also beat up on bad defenses as one should yeah that that's it's not a huge knock but it's like when if you're juicing your numbers against the the bad defenses where the their the opponents of their schedule is out. So you can go look all that up. And as long as things are still trending from last year, it's going to be a really tough schedule.

Mike, I need your take on number 15, Mike Evans, 30 years old. Why do you hate him? That's what we want to know. Because Jason and I, we still believe in another season of Mike Evans. Last year he was the wide receiver 5, for 12 55 and 13 almost a uh iuk number just doubled the touchdowns and you've got him at 20 you're basically giving him the middle finger just putting him into the dust uh what do you what do you think well he's got the quarterback change oh no he doesn't oh they re-signed Baker? Yeah.

But they added, who's the wide receiver they added? They traded for, oh, no, that was nobody. That was nobody. So he's just exactly what he was last year with wide receiver five. This is normally the opposite because you say he doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame, and Mike normally does. Yeah, why do you hate Mike Evans, Mike? Wide receiver 20, ferocious hatred for him.

That would be a very disappointing year, year I think for where he'll be drafted but maybe not because he's best ball 18 right now also time out I do not believe Mike Evans should not be in the Hall of Fame I've never seen him he's not a first ballot he's definitely a Hall of Fame I don't know the people know what you said this is not

I'm guessing Mike is not endorsing Baker Mayfield I am more freaked out by the loss of Dave Canales. Okay. That's fair. That's what it is. I've seen the success. The two years now of that man being in Seattle,

seeing Geno Smith becoming one of the better quarterbacks in the league that year. Go down here, Baker kind of has a bit of a resurgence mike evans is great and now he's gone so like metcalf yes what happened you know what's funny even though metcalf was better this year than he was last year or this past year than two years ago oh that was he was trying to set him up yeah i set him up yeah but you set him up with like he was still kind of bad both years um here's the deal mike evans i made this point like a tyler lockett there you go when i made the point last year of why Evans would be great and everybody

wanted to point out different quarterbacks different system different whatever it was that Mike Evans been through that a million times I'm not intimidated by Mike Evans surroundings the only thing I'm intimidated by personally is his age and decline if those things happen which they will they happen to Frank Gore and Fred Jackson and you know

Julio Jones all of these players that eventually went from superhuman to not. That's what concerns me. I'm not really worried about one offensive coordinator when he's had 20 in his career. But tremendous risk. I don't disagree with that because they had an outlier season. Baker has not been a world beater forever. Is that what happens to these NFL players when they get near the end of their career? They just become

human? They do become like, oh man. Honestly, that's completely true because if you see these players. Humans can't play in the NFL. You have to be superhuman and then once they become human, it's like, ah, they aged out. They're just a

human. Alright, we got a, ah, they aged out. They're just a human. All right, we got a city to visit after the break. All right, hit the button. Me? I don't even do it. Okay. We built this city. Wait, that's not mine.

That's everybody. Michael Pittman at 14. I feel like I just got trapped. Well, you are in the middle on the rankings. I should be on there as the highest ranker of Michael Pittman. Yeah, right now, Jason, inside the top 12. The current mayor is whoever has him ranked higher. Yeah, that'll just end up with one of us at number one. It'll be one, two, three. Pittman coming into his age 26, 27 year, 156 targets, 109 receptions,

1,152 yards, four touchdowns. I've got him the lowest. No surprise. I always do. And look, I am still concerned. I'm sorry. The targets were amazing. I don't know how thrilled I am at catching 109 of 156 of them.

It was Gardner Minshew for most of the year. He only scored four times. Anthony Richardson, like we can't. Wait, you're not sure about a 70% catch rate? I'm not sure that a 70% catch rate on the targets he'll get from Richardson. Oh, okay. If Richardson is running the football. That's fair uh i i just have a little bit of hesitation because for whatever reason and i don't know

what it is michael pitman he's just never really been a guy that i think can go out there and put up eight nine touchdowns and so then you rely on volume yeah Yeah, he's at 1, 6, 4, 4. So he scored eight times on 207 targets, eight touchdowns on 207 targets the last two years. Do I think it changes because of Richardson? Nope. So then what kind of volume numbers do you have to put up? Like Pittman is the most cozy wide receiver to ever. Like I would love that.

I have him at 16. I'm not disrespecting him Jason has him at 11 Mike at 15 I think you have to believe a lot of things about Anthony Richardson to get to the top 12 for Pittman so I think that's well stated because the reason I have him in the top 12 is because I am pretty bullish on Anthony Richardson I believe he comes out and has a very good season this year. His rehab is great. They talk about how he's pretty much already recovered.

How's his schedule? He's throwing – oh, super ahead of schedule. I mean, he's – I thought you meant like a schedule for the season. He's working on, you know, advanced mechanics. He's already basically healed. He's throwing 40 passes a day is what I saw. Yeah, exactly.

Yeah, I just read that article. Michael Pittman is one of those guys where you know the volume's already going to be there. He doesn't have the target competition and he has the money to say that is the true number one. So the volume's there, right? So you draft him at wide receiver 16 or wide receiver 15

or wherever he goes ADP, which is going to be closer to wide receiver 2. It'll either be a back-end 1. I'm not sure what goes ADP, which is going to be closer to wide receiver two. It'll either be a back-end one. I'm not sure what his ADP is right this second. Wide receiver 20 in best ball. Oh, mercy. But that's all best ball. But my point is, if he's already got that volume locked in,

and he's right, he's never been a – I don't think he has the volume locked in, though. You don't think he's got the target market share of this offense? Well, target market share is a percentage. A percentage. So, yes, I think he will have the percentage of a lower pie. market share of this offense as who well target market share is a percentage a percentage so yes i think it will have the percentage of a lower pie but even if you look at a player like if you think richardson's going to be jalen hurts well hurts you know through for 3100 3700 3800 yards

so you're not getting to the 4000 yard mark your touchdowns are probably not going over 20 so i think ceiling is a concern you talk about pie, and that was a big fear coming in last year. You expected or feared a Lamar Jackson-esque, this is not going to be a fast-paced. We did not get our answer yet. We didn't get our answer, but the very first game of his career, he threw the ball 37 times. And through the season, Shane Steichen had a very fast pace of play.

His next game, he was 11 for 25 in his next full game so i i'm just saying we i'm not saying you're right or wrong i'm just saying i don't think we should draw conclusions from either of those games which is what i've been saying all off season my point is we can't conclude that his and you agreed his target market share his target market share will be a a very very healthy slice of whatever size this pie is it will be the largest his touchdowns touchdowns are are not a sticky stat and so you know he hasn't had a huge touchdown season yet but that doesn't mean he can't score eight nine ten touchdowns i i think the targets and the volume is secure and the touchdowns can come up but if he's already being the wide receiver 20 in drafts like what how how low can

he finish if he only has four touchdowns but he's the number one target i i think it's not about how low he can finish it's how high you can finish that's my only that's my why i'm dissuaded but i always will be that's the thing you can trust me. It's weird. It's just weird. I can't wait. Three or four years from now, he's going to be a my guy. One of the reasons is because statistically he always ends up exactly where I'm telling you he is going to be, which is not a top 12 guy. Yeah, he could be a value. I'm not disagreeing. His range of outcomes are not the kind that get me as excited as you you guys like kind of middle of the road stuff i'm more of like a ceiling guy okay i like like high potential people all right that's fair you guys are settlers you settle in pity city i move on for greater cities have you seen the plumbing there not good not good you know it's not good

it wasn't but then all the money started flowing oh the town. Oh, are they working on it? Oh, yeah. He is a champion of the city. He's upgrading everything. Michael Pittman's ceiling finish. What is it? Then we'll move on. Ceiling is? The highest he could finish. Water Super 6.

Oh, gosh. 8. Wow. Okay. Yeah, I got him at like 13. And the lowest he could finish? For me? Like probably Wow. Okay. Yeah, I got him at like 13. And the lowest he could finish? For me? Like probably 20.

Okay. Yeah. I just give him proper respect right in the middle. I agree with what you said first, which is you love him being a wide receiver too. Yeah, I do. And I do too, and that's where you're drafting. I'd rather have him, I think, than Jalen Waddell at two. Me too.

I definitely would. Much more comfortable. At 13, Chris Olave. I think you could almost call it a year of lost potential. 87 for 11, 23, and 5. That doesn't look that bad, but it felt way worse than that.

He finished at 19. He was drafted much higher. This year, we've all got him almost equally ranked right on the edge of wide receiver one territory he's good he's very good he's good you stupid Derek Carr

well and he to be you stupid stinky Derek Carr stupid stinky son of a making your bad faces when you threw the ball poorly look they both made faces at each other. That was the problem. There was not a...

Do you bite your thumb at me, sir? You want your potential wide receiver one that you have to draft that wide receiver run range. Is that the first Shakespeare? I think that might be our first Shakespeare reference on the show. I'd be surprised if it was. Yeah, we've done thousands of shows. No, it's not.

I want to know that my wide receiver, Juan, on my fantasy team, has a great rapport with his quarterback. I still don't know if that's going to be the case. Derek Carr loved throwing the football to Rashid Shahid this year. He loved throwing it to Alvin Kamara this year. I don't know if he always loved throwing it to Chris Olave this year. For whatever reason, or last year, he struggled with that. And the talent is there.

He definitely had a couple of weird games, though, right? I mean, we watched it for the first time. I think it was the first time that I saw the bubble burst in my mind of like, Olave's a locked-in guaranteed stud. But then you had a couple games where you're like, what is going on? Is he, he's making mental mistakes. There was a drop here or there. So that that's in the back of my mind.

It's, it shows me that I could draft him at this high of a position at 13 and end up with 20. Yes. And that sucks. You know, like he's a too good of a player to end up there, but I don't want the next Terry McLaurin on my team. I want the next Jamar Chase. That makes sense. So you're afraid that this is kind of –

you're just going to continue seeing what you saw in his sophomore season. He's got a fork in the road. He has to choose which direction he's going to go. Is he going to settle in at that DJ Moore in Carolina area? Because that could happen. It seems even more likely that that happens. Than to step up to be a top five guy. Yeah, because stupid Derek Carr.

Well, Derek Carr has not topped, what is that, 25 ever? No, no, no, he has. Oh, one time in the past seven years over 25 touchdowns. Is that right? That seems right. His peak was. I i'm sorry is that what you're saying brooksie yeah i'm saying his so derrick car's peak was his sophomore season when he had uh 32 passing touchdowns then 28 do you know how many eclipses ago that was that was like

12 eclipses ago but yes the the 25 24 23 24, 23, that's not going to get the job done. Well, and touchdowns are the problem here. For Chris Olave, he's one of 21 wide receivers with 2,000 receiving yards in their first two years. And only Hopkins and Garrett Wilson had fewer receiving touchdowns of that group than Olave, and you just don't see Derek Carr giving him a 10-touchdown season next year. No, and he's not the physical stature to necessarily just be a, like, out-muscle you down there.

I feel like the fork in the road insinuates you're going to get worse or better. This is like he's just going to keep going straight, and you want him to take the left turn and go north? It's not going to happen. More likely to finish where he did last year at wide receiver 19 or to finish inside the top 10. Definitely 19. That sucks.

It does. It does. It was an improvement. Yeah. And he's super good. Yeah. Like, this is a quarterback issue. Dear car.

I hate that guy. Don't send in the car. Stinks. Smells bad. So this is the new thing, huh? Yeah. This year there's an odor. Yeah.

Cooper Cup at 12. Range of opinions here. Mike has them at nine. I'm at 11. Jason at 15. Hate that. Early rankings. Cooper Cup is going to be 31 years old.

Super disappointing last year. Injury riddled. I thought you were saying it was super disappointing. He's going to be 31 this year. He's going to be 31 this year. Super disappointing. He's trying 40 on for size. That's even more disappointing.

Still posted a very high-end wide receiver, too, on a per-route basis. So don't let the fantasy finish kind of talk you out of Cooper Cup and working him into your draft plan. So I see a concern here. He's old and clearly not the number one read on the offense. I don't agree. I think healthy Cooper Cup and healthy Pukunukua is genuinely a whoever's open guy.

I don't think it means that he's not the number one. Just because he was injured a bunch, so Puka took advantage. I think both guys could be the primary focus of an offense. I think there's a chance that Puka is just the new Robert Woods, but maybe a better version that is definitely TBD. But I'm not ready yet, especially with the flashes of Cooper Cup that we saw last year, like some actual big week winning type of performances, like right when he came back from the injury.

We kind of talked about Cup on the last show, but wide receiver 12, wide receiver 3, just right out the gate. So the greatness is still there. The world does not believe that. The world believes that he does not have a ceiling anymore, and you can see that because in best ball his ADP is a redonkulous wide receiver 26. So we may not. I'd scoop that up. Are we blind?

So we did. We just talked about him a lot on the previous episode. I do not think he is done. He was in the full games where he played and Stafford played the majority of the game, 95% of snaps or more for Cooper Cup. He had 12.5 fantasy points per game. That's very good. That's not great.

That's like wide receiver. I think it was 16 somewhere around Amari Cooper last year. He should finish better than wide receiver 25. I disagree that I don't think – I think he is the two. I think Puka has replaced him. Whichever way it goes, Cooper Cup is a value if you're talking about a fourth-round pick. His targets per game when averaged out was 134.

He would have been at 134 to 140. Scored in four of his final five games. Cooper Cup's awesome, and he's a spitwad. Loves the spitballers. Yeah. That's reason enough to put him in your top 12. I mean, I really don't like where I have him ranked, which what was it? Oh, not your top 12. Watertrooper 15. That feels low. really don't like where i have him ranked which what was it oh not your top 12

water shooter 15 that feels low i don't like that i i do think he finishes there's close to around there but when you're talking about drafting him as the water shooter 25 26 i am all about that my current best ball leagues i've got him in did he like almost every single you missed four games to start the year he missed missed four, yep. So last year you could have – last year was the example of why this year he could be ranked lower. It's because everyone thought they were going to get a bargain, drafting the guy.

Oh, once he comes back, he might be the one. That's the reason to keep – he just wasn't. He had to come back from an injury and then be the one. Instead, he came back and kept getting hurt and not producing and then playing hurt. So 11 is Dev davante adams 31 years old as well i got him at eight mike's got him at 12 jason at 13 he finished at 11 103 for 11 44 and 8 definitely a situation that could be massively different depending on a quarterback that they find in the draft, 175 targets.

He was actually a huge, huge fantasy championship deliverer. Oh, yes. If you made it through the game before. Him trying to destroy you in the semi-trips. Thankfully, I did. Yeah, he was at eight in week 15. He had one catch for four yards in week 16 against Kansas City, which was the Snead debate.

Hold on. He played 91% of the snaps. He played the whole game. He had six targets. And then he followed that up championship week with 21 targets. 21 targets. You guys realize that he had two games with 20 with 21 targets. 21 targets! You guys realize that he had two games

with 20 or more targets. So 40 of his 175 targets came in two weeks. 175 had to be near the league lead. Oh, that is an outlandishly high number, especially for a team that wants to run the ball so much. You think about the pace of play the Colts played with and how much they threw

the ball and how much of the target percentage went to Michael Pittman Jr., and Michael Pittman only finished with 156 targets. CeeDee Lamb at 181, Andy. Devontae was number two. Number two. And Gardner Minshew is now the quarterback here. For now. TBD.

For now. Which I do think they're going to get one of them. CeeDee Lamb turned 181 targets into 1,749 yards. Devonta Adams turned 175 targets into 1,144 yards. One of those things is not like the other. One of those things is a lot older, Mike. Yeah, how many total receptions for CeeDee? 135.

Yeah, 103 for Adams. I mean, there was changing quarterbacks, right? You got Aiden O'Connell and Jimmy Garoppolo and disgruntled Adams throughout the season. 63% of his targets were catchable. So he did great work with the catchable targets. I think we all know the talent of Devontae Adams, if it doesn't decline, which it could at 31,

but when he had the ball in his vicinity, he was still the same guy last year. It was just disappointing to have no consistency at the quarterback position. He is the kind of guy that I think a head coach like Pierce listens to, and that's why you saw that force feeding of targets

at the end of the year. He's coming off number one, number three, number three. He said, Pierce, I won't be here next week. If you don't give me 20 or more targets, I'm not coming back. And so he gave him 21. Yeah, so I mean, he listened to him. Yeah, I mean, Adams is good.

His quarterback is not. We don't know who his quarterback is going to be, but we know he's not going to be good. That's brutal. Yeah, I mean, it's fair, brutally fair. Similar questions about some of the guys in the top 10 we'll have to talk about. That'll do it for today's episode of the show, counting it down from 20 to 11. On Thursday, we'll jump right in to our top 10 wide receivers,

early wide receiver rankings. And a reminder, one more reminder at the end of the show. Join us on draft night, round one reactions, immediately following round one on NFL Plus, the Fantasy Footballers Draft Special. Make sure you are there. It's going to be great. I agree.

Some of my opinions that night, outstanding. I can feel it. Take care, everybody. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com

and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.