Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Explain Yourself! + Rankings Debates - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/3

Episode Date: June 3, 2025

Fantasy Football show for June 3, 2025. Rankings debates for 2025 fantasy football! Andy, Mike, and Jason are forced to defend a player ranking that stands out. Get a season outlook and range of outcomes for Ladd McConkey, Jaylen Waddle, and Baker Mayfield. Plus, NFL News, and quick tips on how to recover from a regretful pick in fantasy football drafts! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.2025 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com(00:00) Introduction(03:30) Draft pick regrets(07:05) NFL News(21:10) Explain Yourself!(21:15) Baker Mayfield(33:50) Ladd McConkey(42:00) Jaylen WaddleConnect with the show:Subscribe on YouTubeVisit us on the WebSupport the ShowFollow on XFollow on InstagramJoin our Discord

Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. Hey, you went for it. Good for you. And not only that, I thought it was totally fine. Oh, welcome in. Hey, you went for it. Good for you. And not only did I thought I was totally fine. Hold on, let me do it again.

Well, if you thought I was fine. Yeah, then you weren't listening. Yeah, I was going to leave it. I was proud of you because it was so bad at the beginning. Here's the you pushed through. Here's the problem. I will explain this. Before the show began, you were in the bathroom. Yes. And once upon a time we started the show with you in the bathroom.

I remember that. And so Al Borland has the genius idea. He goes, just do a welcome in while he's in the bathroom. We'll scare him again. And I do it. Oh, and it worked and it sounded fine. So I went in with less hesitation. No fear. No fear. And I should have had so much fear. You should have had more fear. You only have one per day. You wasted it on a bit. Yeah, yeah I wasted it on a bit, but here we are. and I know that's not gonna get redone so Tuesday June 3rd the fantasy footballers podcast Andy Holloway Mike Wright Jason Moore back with you it's exciting it's gonna be a fun day we've got some explain yourself rankings debates on the show today because the UDK is live all of our

rankings are live the ultimate draft kit and so there are three players today that we have kind of a big difference in our rankings you know one individually much different than the other two so we'll go through some explain yourself we've got a lot of NFL news to catch you up on. Good quick question and some mail bag if we have time. But yes, the UDK, it is alive. UltimateDraftKit.com. Toilet season got an upgrade.

Yes, that's one of our bigger marketing phrases. Like when you're my age, I'll get on the app store. I'm like, I gotta find a game. For the bathroom. Yeah, and I'm like, no, none of it needs, this doesn't work for me anymore. I need something to do. The games? Yeah. Yeah.

I, the mobile games, it's like, I. You're not into that. I just, I can't. No candy crush while you're crushing it on the toilet. No, no, my own personal candy crush. Candy crush that toilet. Like, no, I don't crush candy crush that toilet like no I don't know why I can't get into any of them. It is this disappoint you are you guys?

You're just not like a fun guy anymore. Well, I look you know, what dare you hold on I think I know what people do in your situation. Okay, so doku. I think that's what they move on I think Person game I can run 100% get down on some Sudoku. That's a good game. There you go. It's a good game. It's a good game.

We're there. We're there. We're there. Because jigsaw puzzles is rapidly approaching. Yeah, it is. Oh, no. And bird watching. Well, that's already here, because that's awesome.

You're already into bird watching. OK, good. We'll be collecting plants soon taking care of gardens I don't know what else old people do but we're gonna Quick question of the day from Brandon writing in on X Have you ever made a draft pick and then immediately regretted it last year in a live super flex draft? I took a second quarterback and immediately regretted it as I left AJ Brown out there on the board. Yeah So first of all, have you ever done that?

Second of all, how do you avoid panic and tilt when you feel instant regret during the draft? I think we've all. I'm sure I have. Yeah, I don't have a memory of, oh my gosh, I left this player and I took that player. I think what has happened before, and maybe this is more in mock drafts

or in drafts that in, you know, drafts that I'm not specifically prepared for this draft is when you grab the same team. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know what I mean? I remember doing that now with Alfred Morris back when he was having his run with Washington. And it was probably like Terry. Just having players, because in fantasy they're're so isolated in our cheat sheets and stuff, sometimes it's individual breakdowns

that you're not putting the pieces together on the teams in the moment because of tilt. Yeah, no, it happens. And right after that, you're reminding me now, Jay, after I took two people from Washington, I went, oh, this can't be good. Yeah, I mean, how you avoid that, it's really just preparation.

Like, the more you're prepared beforehand, you're listening to this show, you're, you know, if you've got the UDK, when you go into your draft prepared, it's very rare that you're going to make a pick and immediately regret it. I would say the times that it happens, and we've said this before, like, you always have to have, when you're one pick away, you have to have two players.

Yeah. You can't just have one. If you had three, three picks away, and now you're down to two, and now you're down to one, before you're on the clock, figure out who that second player is that you want. Because when you've only got one guy left you want, and that guy goes right before you, your brain goes toast.

Your brain's just gone. Don't let one bad pick become four bad picks. Right. If you go into a draft with a plan, you might make a mistake, you might take a pick and then you see somebody else on the board or you realize, like Mike was saying, you drafted two guys on the same team,

don't let that compound itself into missing on four or five picks in a row. Because you go in with a plan, you mess one up, go back to the plan. Draft the rest of the pieces of a good team, figure it out from there. You set the foundation of your team at the draft, but you're not, nobody's taking that drafted team

and going all the way without tons of great moves throughout the way, free agency, waiver wire, trades, all of the above. That's why our show doesn't stop in the end of August. Yeah, you don't win your championship at the draft. You only set a foundation. It's a season-long game. Dude, Alfred Morris appeared in nine seasons.

We were busy talking, Jay. And this dude was deep diving Alfred Morris. I had moved on, man. You'd move back. Sure. Alfred Morris is most famous to me for driving the same beater car even when he got a paycheck. It was awesome.

The beginning of his career, three straight thousand yards. Rookie season was 1613 touchdowns on the ground as an undrafted. Sixth rounder. Oh, I'm saying he was around sixth. I'm undrafted in fantasy. Oh, right. Like no one we weren't drafting out for Morris It was right before that season happened all sudden whispers started to come out true And then he was and he was a six round pick in the NFL draft. Yeah. Yeah, I mean that's nine years ago, man

Good for you out for Morris pretty pretty legendary season. Thank you for that Mike You're welcome. All right, let's talk some news. News and notes from around the league. Ah, welcome to the news. That was much better. Yeah, yeah, I got some regrets. Ricky Pearsaw, hamstring injury,

likely won't return to practice until training camp, says Kyle Shanahan. You know, off season injuries right now. Yeah, I mean, there was a corollary report just about Jawan Jennings being targeted all over the field. Yeah, well he's all that's left. Yeah, well Johnny Smith conveys he wants a new contract with Miami, he is due 4.8 million and his agent and his bank

account would like to cash in on a career year. Miami's been seeking a trade partner instead of agreeing to the request for a new contract. Stealers have expressed interest. Mr. Arthur Smith has an addiction to John New Smith. So we'll see where he ends up. It's tough. We just did player profile videos for Johnny Smith in the UDK and right now we're moving forward, projecting him on Miami because.

Cause he's on Miami. Cause he's on Miami. Somebody asked why we didn't have an Amari Cooper player profile, it's cause he's on nobody's team. Oh man, ain't nobody want Amari Cooper right now. Yeah, John-u is going to be quite an important piece, because I think that John-U Smith, as a dolphin,

is actually a really important fantasy tight end relative to the position. He's not in that upper tier. But then if he leaves, I mean, he was the amount of targets and receptions he had, especially once Tua came back, that is probably really good news for the Tyreek truthers and the Jalen Waddle truthers if John Woo is not

on the roster. So we're on John Woo watch now. Yeah, maybe some foreshadowing for a segment later today talking some dolphins, but we also have some Kyle Pitts news. Many teams reaching out to the Falcons about the availability of Kyle Pitts. Says Kyle Pitts' agent probably. Nope, Jordan Schultz of Fox News. But Kyle Pitts is not practicing right now, he's not at OTAs, dealing with an injury. Wink wink. Oh my goodness. The best thing for Kyle Pitts would be a change of scenery, which might not be the best, it might not be a good thing at all, but to me that's the best, because if somebody goes out and tries to acquire him, there's

two things that are going to be true. One, they have a plan for him. Two, they have a plan for his contract. Like you're going into your final year, if both of those things, you know, he's still very young, right? Oh yeah. I mean, him or R.J. Harvey. I think they're months apart.

Yeah. Him or RJ Harvey. I think they're months apart. Yeah, so you're you're talking about a reclamation of potential that another team might That we would talk ourselves into believing. I Don't know man. I think we need to hold the line here. Yeah, I know that he just seems so disinterested on the field I you know but you've sent me to trade two or three trade offers for Kyle Pitts in our dynasty league because there's part of me That's like trying to buy the by the the lowest you could buy absolutely Small part of you that believes because it's 24 years old. Yes, you know, he's 24 years old

You know, he had a thousand yard rookie season He showed flashes but but then you know when I went to make those trade offers from you, Andy, I started with a second round pick, and then I looked at Kyle Pitts again. Did you send it? No, I had it. Oh, okay. I was like, that's what I'm going to offer a second, and it was more than just Pitts in there.

You should see what I would do. But I'm just saying like... If you send it. Yeah, and then I'm like, whoa. He's going to run an experiment. I forgot that he's played four full seasons. I dare you. I feel like that's an auto except from Andy.

Oh, for sure it would be. I'm not offering a second. Let me tell you, maybe this will entice you, Jay. It will not come. Year one, one touchdown. Year two, two touchdowns. Year three, three touchdowns. Year four, four touchdowns.

Oh my gosh, year five? Five touchdowns. Whoa. So in about six years Oh my gosh, year five? Five touchdowns. Whoa. So in about six years, we're gonna be talking top tier tight end. Yeah, so we don't know. I mean, Kyle Pitts right now, not practicing, not traded. And not under contract after this season.

CJ Stroud dealing with a minor shoulder muscle issue. No concerns from their offensive coordinator about him not throwing. And then Joe Mixon, lower body injury, did not participate in Friday's OTAs. It was reported that he had a minor workout injury. Nothing serious is the quote. I believe he was in a walking boot.

Mm-hmm. Mm, ah, yes. Should've been a running boot. Ah, yes. My minor injuries that I put on a walking boot. Mm. Well, they said he'll be ready for training, Keough. We'll follow along.

All right. It is one of the concerns of any of the aging running backs. That is suspicious. So we had a report for all of the madness going around Stefan Diggs. One of the radio pundits talked about the fact that cutting him is on the table. He just signed a three year, $69 million contract,

and then he showed up at OTAs and he, we're in a world of- Well, he was there and then he was gone. Yeah. And then this, then the video came out, the boat video, and now he's back. Here's the confusion around Diggs. There were a lot of, there were like people in the know,

in New England, talking about wishful thinking as him being back on the field by week four of the NFL season. Now prior to that report, this show, the three of us, identified Diggs as a value for the UDK. He would have been in our UDK value. He was, we removed him before the release

of the ultimate draft. Yeah, wrote the blurb up and everything, looked at him based on where he's being drafted, Drake made his potential, the contract as a value. Then this news report comes out and it says, oh, you know, he might not be available till week four, we're not gonna recommend a player that you shouldn't draft. Yeah, must be really behind in his recovery,

not even behind, it's just, he's just the timeline for him. If he's not ahead of the timeline, then Jason, he is in fact behind. And then the video comes out, and he's without a brace. Today. And he's running around with Keishan Butey, and he looks totally spry and fine. And it's June 2nd.

We don't have football until September. And this guy looks very, very healthy to me. I'm not a doctor. I was saying this. I was saying this before the show that I don't understand. Like I still think that he might go on the pop and miss the first four weeks like the B reporters are saying

because that's being reported, but I don't get how that's humanly possible. He's running full routes. No brace. He looks fine. I know that's, you know, that's a far cry from necessarily being in NFL shape, but it's like, but the season doesn't start tomorrow, or next week, or next month. You've got months from now before, like, I watch that video and I don't know how he is not ready for week one. Unfortunately, one of the ways he's not ready for week one is if he wasn't on the team and there's some consequence of these.

It's boat related. The boat related suspensions. I think it's less about the boat there, Mike. This is not the first boat related conversation in the off season. Remember Zeke in a boat? Stay away from boats. Look, you would.

Very dangerous. Bad things happen on a boat. You remember Tom Brady getting off the boat? Oh yeah. Oh man, that was a weekend in Bernie's. That dude was. After celebrating his. Yeah, he had celebrated.

He had really celebrated. He got after it. Boats are, yeah, where it's at. Joe Flacco right now being reported by the Athletic Sac Jackson. What? Is the favorite to win the job. What? It's going all over the place. Hold on, hold on. So it's that Joe Flacco right now being reported by the Athletic Sac Jackson favorite to win the job what it's going all over the whole Donald so it's a full this is news to me well this is full circle the offseason began and I was completely convinced that Joe Flacco as was I I held off for so long on on my

projected stats then they draft get Dylan Gabriel and should do our Sanders and trade for a Kenny Pickett. And trade for Kenny Pickett. And they traded for Kenny Pickett. And now the way it's being discussed. They traded for Kenny Pickett first. Sure. Yeah, the way it's being discussed is there's two battles right now.

There's the battle for the starter job, Flacco and Pickett. And there's a battle for the top rookie. Now, if Flacco doesn't win the starter's job, I don't know if he's in Cleveland. That's how I'm looking at this. Right. I don't think they're. He'll probably ask for a release. They're not gonna keep four quarterbacks on this roster.

So to me it's like, if Flacco, and I think both rookies are staying. Yeah. So it seems like one of those two picket or Flacco would be gone. It's still up in the air. Now Flacco, if he won the job, I'm already on the side of like,

I'm a little bit more pro-Judy, a little bit more excited about Najoku. I assume Flacco being in that starter role would change everything. It changes my entire outlook of the Cleveland Browns. Is it because he's a professional quarterback? Yeah. It's because he is, and it's because even though the days,

you know, the couple year ago run that Joe Flacco had on the Browns, I don't, I think we're probably, that's gone, but Joe Flacco could throw for 4,000 yards. Can Kenny Pickett throw for 4,000 yards? I doubt it. Can Kenny Pickett throw? Across a couple of seasons, yeah.

Can Kenny Pickett, like, what's Kenny Pickett's high for touchdowns? Doesn't he, kind of doesn't he? One of the lowest-? Let's guess, let's guess. I'm gonna guess 17. I think you're too high. 15.

15 is all I'll go with. You guys guess, I'm pulling it up. I'm gonna say 18. That does feel high. You guys are so off. Was it like nine? Andy, you need to take 10 off of your guess. Five?

Seven touchdowns. That's his career high pass. As a rookie in 12 starts, seven touchdowns. He followed it up in 11 starts with six. Lowest touchdown rate of all time through 25 starts. That's what I'm saying. This has been a problem for me when I'm trying to evaluate the Cleveland Browns is.

This is why you can't pick, can he pick it? You can't. If you're the Browns, you can't pick him as one of these options. Oh my gosh. Unless you want. Did we say the part of want to have the first pick. So the report that came out from the athletic

that was mentioning they think Joe Flack was the favorite, it did say it's not gonna be one of the rookies. At least as a starter for sure. That's what I mean. That's my point is there's two battles. There's the best of the rookie backups. Making sure that was communicated. And then there's the starting job.

And we all know that all these guys are gonna play because this is gonna Be a terrible year. Yeah, we will see all we'll see all three that are on the roster. That's how I feel Yeah, this is huge news probably should have led with this the Lions All-pro center Frank rag now Announced his retirement He was only 29 years old four-time Bowler, was the number one blocking center in the game last year. I think he's a top three, or now was a top three center in the NFL.

He missed very few games since they drafted him in 2018. He's an enormous part of... You look at the strength of this offense. The Lions are a great offense, the literal number one scoring offense last year, and the strength, it's not Jared Goff, it's not Amin Rah, it's not even Jameer Gibbs. It's their offensive line. The offensive line is what makes everything else work. It's what lets David Montgomery and Jamal Williams score 15 touchdowns a season. This is a brutal loss. Now, they did spend a second round draft pick on a rookie guard who right now in camp has been playing the snaps at center. I mean, we saw last year, we saw the Eagles

lose an all-world Hall of Fame center, and they were fine. They had a plan in place. That being said, I feel like they knew that, you know, Kelsey every year was like, are we gonna have Kelsey back? They kinda had a plan in place. I'm not sure that the Lions had enough time to know exactly what they.

I think they had an inkling at least, cause they took him in the second round. Well, but he wasn't a center. He was a guard at Georgia. Yeah, yeah, that's fair. He was a three year starter there, but they did bring him in cause he's versatile and he could play center and they brought him in a rookie campus to center So I think that's when the inkling began. We thought this was contract related 29 year old all-pro a team that's on the rise

Did you guys read the his little message? I read I read it seemed like it was health It was 100% and it was just it felt It felt kind of sad for him to be at the age he's at and he's like, I thought I had more football, but I don't, I'm hurting, my body is, you know, like, oh man. Your body's toast. It's not forgiving.

Wait till you're 40, man. Yeah. I got bad news for you. Jason hasn't played center in years. No, I used to be a center. So there you go, I mean bad news for you. It gets worse. Jason hasn't played center in years. No, I used to be a center. So there you go. I mean, that's significant. It will be a change.

They do have still foundational pieces around him. For sure. You know, Routledge stepping in. But no, there's just a lot that a top tier center does. Well, and especially. You mentioned Philly. They went out and won a Super Bowl when they lost Jason Kelsey.

I'm not going to overreact to this. I think the Lions are going to be a good offense. But I do look at the specific piece, the center being gone and how that affects Jared Goff. Jared Goff is not one of those guys that likes to make things on his own. He's an in-system, awesome player when everything is working right. And so like Jameson Williams, he's a guy I know, Andy, an in-system awesome player when everything is working right. So like Jameson Williams, he's a guy I know, Andy, you're pretty bullish on. Yep.

That's the one player that I think almost gets hurt the most. Probably David Montgomery, followed by Jameson Williams because you want the plays to develop, that downfield passing they've talked about with Morton coming in, that they want to push the ball down the field more. Well, you've got to protect Jared Goff. So it's just a little worry on the back, you know, the hair stands up a little. Yeah, it'll be interesting if it affects the running game more, and if that leads Goff having to throw the ball more, and I don't know. Right now it's just fresh, brand new news, but a big loss, no doubt. We'll take a break, we'll jump into some rankings,

explain yourself. I'm quite well, thank you. No, clearly you are not. No rational person would do as you have done. Explain yourself. I think I'm rational, Mike. Sometimes. I thought I was a rational person. No, we all think that.

We all think we're rational when we're putting in our projections. And then the captain of this show, Andrew Holloway, decided he's gonna put Baker Mayfield at quarterback six. We're talking about Baker Mayfield, Layser, I'm sorry. Yeah, no, no, for this argument I can't call him that. Right, yeah. When I call a guy his cool nickname, it does not help me. Yeah, he's trying to set up the negative.

I'm trying to be- I'm trying to get back in the kitchen, you're a baker. So a player who had never surpassed 28 passing touchdowns, jumps all the way to 41, jumps 500 passing yards, even though he played every game two years ago for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Andy's like, oh, pocket passing Baker Mayfield. I got him ranked real high, so you explain yourself. This one's so fun to me. It's a good discussion.

Baker, by the way, I didn't place him at six, to be clear. The way we do rankings here at the Fantasy Footballers. I didn't choose the stats, the stats chose me. The stats are the stats. And in fact, when you look at kind of how the three of us project Baker, we're not too far off. No. I do have him at six, he ended up at six.

I think that the discussion that I wanna have is one that I feel like one player is being omitted from. We have a repeated refrain on the show about the pocket passer touchdown variability. But there's one quarterback, not Baker, there's one other quarterback, that seems to get a pass on this. And it's true in drafts. And so to me, Baker is discount Burrow.

And that's the situation, that's the discussion I wanna have because Burrow is a fourth round draft pick right now. Which means that if you're sitting in the fourth round and you're saying I've got to have Joe Burrow, right? I've got to have that guy instead of somebody like Baker in the sixth round. That means I'm not getting George Kettle in the fourth round, right? I'm not getting Joe Mixon in the fourth round. I'm not getting Rashi Rice. I'm not getting Alvin Kamara. These are, this is who I'm going to pass on to get Joe

Burrow, who to me, I just don't understand really functionally how all the arguments that you would make against Baker Mayfield, most of them apply to Joe Burrow, except for the fact that Baker runs for more yards, which is a, it's a bit of an equalizer for the variability at touchdown, in the touchdown numbers. Now I didn't go out and project Baker for 41 touchdowns. I projected him for 30.

But he ran for 378 yards last year. If you look at the last two years in the NFL, Baker Mayfield is number one in the league in passing touchdowns over the last two years. He's the number one most effective passing quarterback. And one of the things that really rubs me the wrong way is any argument around Baker Mayfield that is historically based on previous seasons

with different organizations in the past and touchdown rates in the past. Those are misleading in my opinion and a huge mistake for fantasy players. I disagree. That's why I'm explaining myself. I think that's just really fundamentally not valuable to our analysis of Baker Mayfield,

because this was not, this was a guy almost running out of the league. That was part of, you know, the Cleveland organization that was dysfunctional. He struggled there, had his one game in Los Angeles. Goodness, they got him out in Watson Inn, right? In Cleveland? Yeah.

Oh my gosh. Yeah, I mean, but those years are so incomparable on so many levels. I mean, from the touchdown percentage to just his consistency, his completion percentage in Cleveland, he had years of 59%, 60%. You know, he's better than Burrow.

He was at 71%. Burrow was at 70% last year. Oh, what else? Oh yeah, he's better than Burrow. He was at 71%. Burrow was at 70% last year. Oh, what else? Oh, yeah, he's in A in consistency. So his last rolling 17, you can throw the injuries in for Burrow. His rolling 17, 64% of the time he's in our, you know, our metric for consistency at the quarterback position. Burrow's at 52%. So you got to give, you got to give Baker his due, his credit. And the fact that 40 plus touchdowns is now in the arsenal is now in the range of outcomes for him.

Like we've talked about Jamar Chase. That's probably Jamar Chase's peak season. Like you just went out and you just set the, a triple crown for Jamar Chase is not every season. Right. And you took Baker Mayfield and you gave him another rookie weapon. He's got two elite pass catching running backs.

You got four elite pass catching wide receivers, and you've got an elite pass catching tight end. And you have the same foundation to the offense. Like from a repeatability standpoint, this is why I was on Team Baker last year. Because last year was a call for regression for Team Baker. And you want to know what the basis of that was? His historical touchdown percentage and everything he's ever done on these other teams, he wasn't the same player.

He wasn't the same player at all. So I think the floor is 30 touchdowns on this roster. It's a great team. Jason's constantly talking about Bucky Irving breaking down and not being able to be, like you can't build the offense around Bucky Irving exclusively. It's a Baker offense.

Mike Evans is an elite wide receiver still. Chris Godwin, you brought him up last week. He was the number one fantasy producer during his active weeks. He was the number one fantasy wide receiver. And then you've got McMillan, and you have Ibuca, and you have Otten, and you have these other guys. I just feel like the case, oh, and by the way,

you have slightly a bit of an offensive line. Like he took fewer sacks than Joe Burrow did. They both fumbled the same amount of times. He threw more picks. And again, I'm not saying he is Joe Burrow. I'm just saying the arguments that are being made against Baker are not made against Burrow. And I don't think that's fair,

because Burrow's a pocket passer that's gonna run for 200 or fewer yards and Baker's gonna go for three to 400. Yeah, I would disagree with that of, Because Burrow's a pocket passer that's going to run for 200 or fewer yards, and Baker's going to go for 3 to 400. I would disagree with that. And we'll start off. We all like Baker. I think that he is a good pick.

He's OK if you want to take the discount. Joe Burrow was at 200 rushing yards, which he's done two times in his career. Baker ran two fewer times last year than he did two years ago and put up over 200 more rushing yards. I think that was more of a just a flukey thing for Baker. So I'm not necessarily in on the rushing, but I'm in on that he can throw in the 30s. It's an ADP argument to me too, right? Yeah, oh yeah.

21.9 fantasy points we're getting for Burrow last year, 21.5 for Baker last year. I get to draft players in the fourth round like Marvin Harrison and combine them with Baker. If that was my, like, I'm probably not taking those guys, either of them, I'm probably just gonna wait a little bit longer, but I'd rather have two rounds of value because the guys I'm getting in the fourth round at other positions are better. Yeah, I understand everything

you're saying. When I said I disagree with the the historical touchdown rate, I think that is probably the most important thing to look at with a pocket passer is what is their historical touchdown rate. With Joe Burrow, you know, since his rookie season, he's at 5.9% over the last four years. This is not, was last year higher than it will be this year? Sure, probably, but he is always someone that is throwing a ton of touchdowns, always, year after year after year after year. Three fully healthy years for Joe Burrow. Yeah, he's the lowest. He's been at 34 passing touchdowns. Right. And so, whereas on the Baker side,

when I say I disagree, what I disagreed with was specifically that, let's just look at the last year in Tampa Bay. He was at 4.9% touchdowns. That's really good, that's a above league average. That's solid, and that was with that same team. His average in Tampa Bay is 6.1. Well, that's because you're including last year's 7.2.

Which is completely fair to include, to get an average. Yeah, it is, it's fair. That's how you get an average in Tampa Bay is 6.1. Well that's because you're including last year's 7.2. Which is completely fair to include, to get an average. Yeah. That's how you get an average in Tampa Bay. Okay. You don't just count the bad year and not the good year. No. So the average is 6.1. I'm talking about league average is 4.5 and we see all the time. We see this every single year. We're going to see it this coming year with Lamar Jackson. Whoever has that crazy high, like 7.5 or or higher touchdown percentage, it always regresses. It doesn't matter if it's Peyton Manning or anyone. Aaron Rodgers would... So Joe Burrows is going to regress is what you're saying because it doesn't matter? Yes. Joe Burrows is going to regress. They're both going to regress. That's where I look at, OK, well, then

what are they regressing to? What is their mean? And so Joe Burroughs' mean is much higher. Well, Joe, if you do your strategy and throw out the most recent year, his mean is 5.1. So Joe. Joe. You're saying over the last three years.

And Baker was 4.8 in Cleveland. So it's just not that different. Sure. And you don just not that different. Sure. And you don't pay as much. Yeah. So I just feel like we are really enamored with Joe Burrow. And so you're paying,

if Joe Burrow doesn't deliver that season and that round, which he definitely couldn't, it definitely could go the other way. It's higher risk. Do you worry about Joe Burrow this year? Like, are you willing to draft him where he's going in drafts? No.

Okay, then. No, I'm not. That feels intellectually honest. Yeah, no, I don't think I am. Because I don't think you're going up. I don't think any of us would think he's going up. No. So, you know, his career highs, 34 and 35 touchdowns.

So like, and then two injured years. So the injury, like the durability factor doesn't even get, I didn't even talk about it. Like Baker is resilient and never gets hurt and takes a ton of sacks and never gets hurt. Joe Burrows missed two seasons. Yeah. So it's just, it's one, it's a conversation

I think is interesting. And again, it's more about that conversation between those two than it is about any disparity, me and you, or like we have, because. Yeah, we're not that far apart. We're not that far off, I mean, I think I have them for more passing yardages than both of you guys, because I'm giving,

like I love the structure of the offense. This was, they had a top five quarterback, a top 15 running back, another top 24 running back, a top 12 wide receiver in Evans, and Godwin was the wide receiver too, I said one before, number two in fantasy before injury, and then a top 12 tight end. I bet it's just rushing.

That was the only team to do it since the 2012 Patriots, to have those stats, for those positions. Over the last decade, 48 quarterbacks have had 30 or more passing touchdowns, and a five and a half percent touchdown rate or higher, 40 of the 48 decreased in touchdown rate the following. Oh, he's not throwing for 41. Yeah.

That's why I have him for 30. But 30 somehow ended up at six. Yeah, I think the- Because when you move beyond the top tier of guys, it's just kinda like- The issue is like, two years ago he had a great season. He looked good as, you know, like you talked about. You were in on him coming into this year

because he was really good in Tampa two years ago. Two years ago he was the quarterback 10. Well, everyone's afraid of the offensive coordinator change. Yeah, but I mean, he was the quarterback 10, which was a good season. He had a very good season. But at the quarterback 10 for where he's being drafted, that's the issue.

Is like, if you're drafting him at quarterback six and he finishes at quarterback 10, you know, in his ADP he's not a double-digit round quarterback right now. Based on what he did last year, people are drafting Baker much higher than, you know, we would hope to get a deal on him. Yeah, yeah, I mean, you're right.

And so that's my whole worry. It could be too expensive for him too. What's wild is if you look at passing attempts the last two years in Tampa Bay, I hadn't seen this till just now. 566 last year, 570 this year, okay? So literally almost the exact same amount of attempts. 364 completions last year, 407. Completed 7% more of his passes. Far more accurate and his yards per attempt was almost a full yard higher. So yeah, I mean you've got arguments where like, you

know, Evan's big playability, does that diminish? But I don't know. I don't know. I think it's a fun one to talk about. Yeah. Baker's always fun to talk about. But let me just say this. I don't like talking negatively about Baker,

because I love Baker. Mm-hmm. Yeah. No. That didn't feel good. No. And I know this one's not going to feel good for you. No, I hate this even more.

Yeah, because this sucks. I saw this name pop up for the show and I said I know I was talking about Baker and I'm like oh who are you gonna be talking about Jason and and he says I'm gonna be talking about Lad McConkey on the show and I said well oh great just another Jason. Sure thing Benedict Arnold. Another Jason loves Lad McConkey argument. I can't wait can't wait to hit play on that, I see this, like I got him a nine. Mike, you got him a nine. Jason has his little Lad down at a little spot,

outside the top 15 at wide receiver, he's got him at 16. So Jason, as much as it hurts, explain yourself. Yeah, I mean I love Lad McConkey. I went back and I watched film on Lad, and he is so doggone good. If their goal was to have Lad McConkey lead the league in receptions, even in yardage, I think they could do it, if his body can keep up with it.

He's obviously a little bit more undersized. The issue I have here is team identity. This is a team with Harbaugh and Giro that want to establish it. They want to come out and run the ball. You know, last year to start the season, you had J.K. Dobbins looking awesome, right? Comes out 10 for 135 on the ground,

17 for 131 on the ground. It looked like this was a running team. And we talk a lot about Justin Herbert's splits between that first month of the season and then the rest of the season. And for just cause, because he sucked the first four games of the season, they weren't throwing the ball a lot.

They were running the ball a lot. J.K. one leg, J., JK Dobbins over here, the gas ran out. After those two weeks, it was like, okay, he doesn't have it. They weren't able to run the ball successfully with him and Gus Edwards. And so they had to turn the ball over to Justin Herbert is the best option for them, and they did, and they had success. And they could definitely continue that this year to great success because Herbert is great. The issue is I don't think they're going to have to and I'm worried that they're going to choose not to and that they're going to look they went out and got Najee Harris

that is right off the bat that is a humongous upgrade over Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. But then they went out and got Omarion Hampton they spent a first round pick on that they've improved their offensive line. Like this is a team that's saying, hey, what we want to do we weren't able to do last year. Let's go do it better. Let's run the ball more. They've got a good defense. This is one of those issues where now I'm looking and if they're going to be winning these games and running the clock

out, Harbaugh does not need to get the passing stats up. He wants to get the Ws. And I think they're going to get a lot of Ws by running the ball. Then you add in the fact that you add Trey Harris. I know I'm pre-NFL draft, I was very high on Trey Harris. I think he was my wide receiver four in the pre-NFL draft. They spent a day two pick on him. They also brought in Mike Williams. So there's more target competition and I believe there will be less volume. So that's my main argument. This is not a talent or a capabilities thing. I mean, if you look at the second half of last season with Lad McConkie, I'm sure one of you have those numbers pulled up. No, I got them up right now.

Oh, say it because I get hot-bothered. I can mention from week 11 on and tell you he's 109 for 1,607. Oh yeah. But I can also tell you that I remember, like my, I loved the film, we were off-season Lad McConkey brothers. Then he goes to this team, and I was pretty down on him for the first half of the year

because basically the equation was this, Lad gets in the end zone, you're happy. If he doesn't get in the end zone, you're mad. And you can look at the first 10 games of the year. It's exactly the case. If he didn't get into the end zone, you're met. And you can look at the first 10 games of the year. It's exactly the case. If he didn't get into the end zone, you're talking about, you're finishing at wide receiver 64 or 55 or 49 or 37 or 36 or 43. It was irrelevant.

It was only that last stretch, which, you know, weeks 11 through 18, when they needed to transition the offense, when they didn't have that foundational running game. That he could give you a fantasy week regardless of a touchdown which he did often 123 yards 117 yards 87 94 95 and so I mean it's it's compelling because if there's a question about identity you taking him over Trey McBride no you taking him over Josh Jacobs probably not what. What about T Higgins? JSN? Kyron? Yeah so I mean that's the decision you will have to make about lad. And that's where I've got him I've got him lower than where he's being drafted. I've got his

ADP lower. Now that's the we're not making the bowl case here or you guys might obviously he's he was a rookie he finished at 12 as a rookie and now coming into year two I've seen the training videos. He's looking awesome. So maybe he levels up and becomes that keen and Alan for Herbert that was basically on a per game basis like the wide receiver one or two in fantasy But I've got his projections almost Almost exactly what they ended up being last year. Yeah, Mike and I have significantly more targets than you currently have projected,

which would match an identity argument where like we both have him pushing 100 catches. Yeah, and- And you're in the 85 range. And if he does what he did last year where he finished as the wide receiver 12, last year was a weak year for wide receivers like 10 through 20 fantasy wise. Like if you take his points that he scored last year and you look at what

that would have been the previous four years, he would have been the wide receiver 15, wide receiver 14, wide receiver 16, wide receiver 14. Right. So and that's where I've got him. I've got him at wide receiver 16. I think he's a great player. I would love to have him on my team, but where he's being drafted, I think he's being drafted to level up and I'm worried he's gonna level out. Well, it's compelling in the sense that we know

you love him unconditionally. And you still were willing to let the truth come out in your statistics. It hurt. Mike doesn't like it. No, no, I certainly do not. I like Lad a lot this year. Those are all extremely fair arguments to me.

Especially when you, Najee plus Hampton in the first round, like that's a really strong signal by this team of, this is who we wanna be. Greg Roman offenses are always at the top. J.K. Dobbins is still hanging around. He might be on the roster, too. There is that. For me, a lot of it is, you know, where his ADP is,

which is at least where I'm seeing right now, is like fringe second, third, all right? He was 1,157 touchdowns. That's what he did as a rookie. All right. He was 1150 and seven touchdowns. That's what he did as a rookie. Now, obviously a couple of fewer games here. Malik neighbors, 1207. Brian Thomas, 1282, 10. So far more touchdowns.

But those two guys- They're going way higher. They're going in the first round. I think it's wild. The fact that Ladd hasn't been steamed up to like an early second round pick. These are these are the best bets in in fantasy football. Rookies who break out and finish as a top 24 wide receiver their first year they are like the odds of their the bet hitting returning value on

ADP is so incredibly high with, and Ladd gives you ceiling where the other two guys do not. So I just, I am loving drafting that. Does it make any difference if the Chargers are still tweeting out cool videos of Justin Herbert connecting with Quinton Johnson? Does that? That makes me feel even better. They are still sending those videos out, and I'm seeing them. Any, I'm not even joking when I say this,

because you will not believe me because you haven't seen the tape, he caught it. No, I don't believe you. Quinton Johnson caught it. Nothing's on the line. There's too much AI now, AI videos. You don't know that that was real. Did you run that?

Did you do an AI check? I did not run it through AI. Yeah, come on, you gotta zoom in on the faces. He also had robot hands? Yeah. Crap. You're right. You got got.

All right, we'll take a break and come back with Mike's explain yourself candidate. ["Song of the Night"] All right, Michael. Yes. There is a player out there. He might have a tattoo of this guy by now. That apparently you love. He might have a tattoo of this guy by now that

Apparently you love he will never give up on you will not give up on him You absolute killer ranking on consistency This is a player look at that last year consistency rank of an F with 23% of his games being good. Yeah, well it stands for friendship for me He finished as the wide receiver 46, missing only two games. He did, if you just go points per game, he got eight of them.

Yeah, he did. He got eight points per game. He got eight of those points. And Jalen Waddle, you have ranked as the wide receiver 28. Like I said, real. That's really not that crazy. It's not that crazy, but it's, you have ranked as the wide receiver 28. Mm-hmm. Like I said real It's not that crazy, but it's you know, it's a whole lot better than he did last year Also better than he did the year prior to that so Coming off of two really down years for Jalen Waddle. You've associated yourself with it

Yeah, tell us why you believe well, I would I would I'd start by saying two years ago He was over a thousand with four touchdowns and 14 games played. So he was on his way to having a very fine fantasy season. Now, last year, absolute disaster, absolute disaster for Tyreek Hill. And my ranking at 28, the reason it's on the show is because you guys have him in the 40s, which, it's not that I love Jalen Waldodle, but I think ranking him the 40s is a little bit too egregious for a player with his talent, with his actual ceiling

ability, and his year is tough. You actually have to get your detective hat on and get some science equipment to go see what really happened in the year for Jalen Waddle. And last year in when games where he was healthy and when Tua was healthy, like I said there's not a lot of crossover here but in those games... Has that ever happened before? Both those guys healthy in the same game? It has actually. I mean overall in his career where 49 games for Jalen Waddle were in those games, he averages 15 PPR points a game, when Tuah is his quarterback as opposed to sub 10,

when it is not him. For clarity, those numbers you just said are the career with Tuah, not last year with Tuah. Correct, that is his overall career. Did not play 49 games with Tuah last year. Last year specifically, Jalen Waddle was actually almost five catches a game, about 67 yards per game, so that puts his pace about 80, 1100, basically, you know, essentially the Lad McConkie numbers. And Ty

Riek, last year in healthy games with Tua, five receptions a game, 67 yards a game. Like these guys were neck-and-neck. Now it came, it was, it was not consistent. Like there were, there were games where Watto played with Tua and it was bad. And then he had a couple of games where it was just, it was fantastic. It's, this is more of a note of, this is a year five player who in 49 career games is averaging 15 PPR points a game. And we, the fantasy community kind kinda wants to just be done. Completely with Jalen Waddle.

Yeah, they wanna do that because his targets and receptions have gone down for three straight years. They wanna do it because even when he plays, he looks like he's limping on and off the field and it feels like everything has to come, like last year's season game log, that's one of the worst flops in fantasy.

So the burns are severe. Yeah, and I went before their show, I watched every target for Jalen Watto, because I'm like, what happened where, and even that doesn't paint the whole picture, because you watch him in on, a lot of times, he's just like, oh he's he's so much faster than everybody some of his routes need to be crisp I'd saw a lot of lazy out

routes that led to issues with the catch the screen game with with Jalen wattle was not working at all and my dude had oh he had a bit of the drop seas did last year yeah so it not everything is the external's fault when it comes to Jay and the Waddle, but a player who was three straight years at a thousand yards to start his career that has a horrifically bad year, I think that dropping him to the 40s is just a little too extreme for me. I actually agree with you that I think we're probably both on too much of the extremes here. When I looked at statting out Waddle, I focused at when Tua came back.

Because week one, Tua had a bajillion yards, looked awesome, everything was great. Then he got concussed in week two. So when he got back in week eight, so weeks eight through 15. 15, Waddle got hurt. It's not in my sample. I actually have it not in mine as well. I said that, but it is through 14. So weeks eight through 14, that was when Tuah got back and Waddle was there.

Now he was on pace for 77 receptions of 1,000 yards. That's not terrible. Five Tuddies. Yeah, that's not terrible. It's not great. It's like 10 and 1 half fantasy points a game. It's a flex player. But it's the process. It's the way that it comes. Because he had a game where he had

144 yards in a touchdown, and another game where he had 99 yards on 12 targets and 9 receptions. Those two were great. Those two are the reason why you're getting this 17 game pace of 1,000. But the process? how about four for 45? Two for negative four yards. Two receptions for negative four yards. Two receptions for 37 yards. Four receptions. The majority of his games are just disappearing acts. It looks like that year in 2022 when he was on fire, 1,300 plus yards, that one's standing out as an outlier now. That's what it's 18.1 yards it catches that year.

18.1, then it's down to 14.1, then it's down to 12.8, the eight touchdowns, right? The year since then, four and two. I know some injuries, but don't count on them for 17. So it does feel like we kinda hit our, like that was the explosive, incredible offensive year. And part of it is the off it, the 12.8, I think that's low,

that was an outcome of how Miami was running their offense against defenses. Ship Johnu out. Ship Johnu out and get me into Watto. Get me into Watto. I don't think that Johnu is the issue. I think it was, Kyle had pointed out to me of just how often the Miami Dolphins were against zone. So they're playing that shell game

where they're saying, you won't hit a big play on us. And good quarterbacks. That just works though. I'm saying good quarterbacks figured out how to do it. Like they figure out how to make sure that explosive things are are like Josh Allen, it's figuring it out. Where Miami just said, okay, we're gonna go short stuff.

And maybe a part of that is the concerns for Tua, they don't want him to get hit. But then the defense is like, good, go ahead, take all this short stuff. We don't care. That's dumb, inefficient football. That's not winning football when you can't hit an explosive play. Now, does it come back? It's one of the biggest questions

of this fantasy football season. What is the Miami Dolphins offense? Jason has his target share at 17%, which tells me that John New departing would matter a lot. Oh my gosh, I was just gonna bring that up. John New Smith, I think that is the, you say it's the defensive coverage, you're right. However, if they do that again, it's going to be John New in the middle of the short area stuff.

Oh yeah, probably. They can replace that with Waddle, which they should. If you remember on the show last year, I was so pissed at John New, I was sick of it. Because they're getting, he did nothing wrong and he wasn't bad, but he is not the athlete, the explosive guy that can ever be 18 yards. He's just a great mismatch. Yeah, and so it's like. He's a great mismatch on defensive linebackers.

I would have loved to see them get Waddell more involved. If you look at those games that Tua came back from the concussion and whatever coverage or whatever Tua, whatever, the reason is you had a pace of 103 receptions for John O'Smith and a pace of 101 receptions for Devon Aitcham. Everything was just.

Yeah, that's gonna end those other two guys. Yeah. That's 200 receptions. And so hopefully they cannot play that way, but it's hard to imagine with his concussion issues with the terrible offensive line and the way that defenses are playing them, I feel like their hand is a little bit forced.

The one thing when you're watching it that you can't fully piece together, I talk about myself, is, because even in those healthy games with Tua, I mean, he's an 1,100 yard type of receiver, his target share in games with Tua was still down at like 16, 17%. And it's, you, Brooks brought up a point of, right around this time, last year,

we're reacting to Jalen Watto getting so much money. And then they just, then they can't figure out how to get him the ball. To me, to me, to me. Very weird. And this is another, I don't know if you guys agree, disagree, Tyreek Hill's like regression hurts Waddle to me. Yeah, that could be true.

In the way this offense works. I mean, Tyreek Hill demanded so much, there's so much open field for Waddle to work in that I wonder if he suffers and we haven't had to see him, you know, it's like Juju when he had AB on the other side. Like, I'm not saying he's going to disappear like Juju, but boy, Juju looked like the next great thing until Antonio Brown wasn't taking away coverage

and you didn't ever get a season like that again. It's hard to project a season for Waddle like his sophomore year, but I think the ambiguity of this offense right now is scary. Is there a risk rating in the UDK? I think he's lower. Jason and I would probably both, it's kind of like lame having him in the 40s

because it doesn't really seem like that makes sense, but at the same time, two a risk, waddle injury risk, offensive risk, John Yoo and A-chan risk. It's really one of those offenses where you just got to call your shot and you hope you're right. Because if they get back to downfield passing, the two biggest values in this entire draft might be both Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. No, that's fair. They should be amazing values because they're not being drafted anywhere near their ceiling. If you just wanna make the case,

ceiling and where people are drafted, draft those to them. Did you see Tyreek Hill in that party bus or whatever with the quote a couple days ago? Oh no, no. It was a bus, not a boat, right? Not a boat, it wasn't a party boat. It doesn't matter, anything I hear about Tyreek,

I'm like, oh. No, he just said he was gonna knock McDaniel out in one of the games last year because he wasn't getting the ball. He's like, I almost knocked out our head coach. Hey, look, every clock, even a broken clock is right twice a day, right? All of our tiered rankings with customizable scoring

settings are in the Ultimate Draft Kit at ultimatedraftkit.com. You wanna see all the breakdown of where we have guys projected. We keep them updated. We update them nearly on a daily basis. Yeah, look, I said wide receiver 28. Is it gonna be 28 by the time you hear this show?

I don't know. Yeah, that's true. You know, this episode, the way that we're discussing and breaking down individual players, that's a lot like what those 100 plus player profile videos are that we just recorded. So if you've got the UDK, check those out in that. Yeah, see if we said the same stuff

about Jan Waddle in the video. Hope so. All right, that'll do it for today's episode of the show. Thursday, very special mock draft episode coming your way. Do not miss it. Thanks for listening. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF Ballers.