Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Favorite Stacks + ADP Risers, Megalashow! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/11

Episode Date: June 11, 2024

Stacks to target in 2024 fantasy football drafts! On today’s podcast, find out which running backs will rise up draft boards this offseason. Plus favorite QB/WR stacks, and a big LIVE show announcement! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for June 11th, 2024. 2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com Get MEGALASHOW tickets at BallersLive.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,

including a new chance to win cash every minute in the app. Get into the game with Monopoly Double Play at McDonald's. While supplies last, one in five chances to win game piece prizes at outset, chances to win Double Play prizes based on time of code entry, and draw prizes based on number of entries in each draw. See rules in the app. Get a credit card annual fee waiver and earn C-plus points faster with the Scotiabank Ultimate Package and bank more entertainment. Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages. Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

Welcome in one and all. Well, you just time out the space? You could have jumped in at the normal spot. I did. You just missed it. You went to a... I welcomed everybody in. A supersonic frequency that human ears cannot perceive?

It was there, Mike. All right. I promise. Welcome in. perceive it was there Mike all right I promise welcome in the fantasy footballers podcast Tuesday June 11th happy to have you with us Jason Moore is here black shirt today black yeah I went black shirt black hat today and if you want to watch YouTube stay tuned for Thursday because I'm not gonna tell you what I'm gonna wear but it might shock you it wasn't always this way no it wasn't always this way you had much more variety far fewer hats yeah and then i got much bigger and much less hair so it's like this is

perfect but you i mean obviously at some point in time you decided this was the best way to deal with both of those issues. It's just the best I can do. You know, we're all out here trying to do our best. And that's all. I'm just a man of the people. It's just people can't tell the difference between this show and any other show. No, no, no.

It was the exact same. It was funny to see the montage of like weeks of me very quickly changing. And it just, it doesn't look like a montage it doesn't just looks like there's some choppy video uh mike wright is here with us indeed excited for today's episode we have an adp question a quick question of the day we'll get to momentarily but first it's a big one go ahead it's a big one. Go ahead. It's a big one, people.

It is. Why did I say go ahead? Not just a live show. Not just a Megala show. It is the fantasy footballers 10th anniversary live megalith show in la we are doing it up special we are doing it up unique and we want you there at the palace theater for our our 10th birthday like yeah this 10th birthday is a big birthday and we want you there double digits you don't even have to bring presents no just be there

man yeah be there you are our present exactly and by the looks of the 10th anniversary of Megalith show graphic we will be wearing cowboy outfits riding a giant shark yeah or at least that's the theme of the event because that is we show. We gotta get a price check on, can you rent Jaws from Universal? The old one? Like, does he still, do they still have that tour thing where Jaws comes out and he, rarrr

We can borrow him one day. See, the deucer said if you had gone with your presence is our present, that would have been like a fun play on words. They're very proud of that. Yeah, I'm sure they took 30, 40 seconds to figure that one out. Good job, guys. It is our 10th anniversary Megalith show live in Los Angeles,

Saturday, August 24th at the Palace Theater. Tickets available now at ballerslive.com. They will sell out. We want you there with us. So please go grab the best seat in the house and come join us which is basically every seat which is any seat i i hate how they uh full disclosure the the mezzanine when you go to ballerslive.com it looks like oh that's super far away the way they display it it's not there's no bad seats in this place it doesn't mean sits above the other seat therefore

they're in the same depth. Exactly. Which means you can catch a t-shirt. I was going to say, I'm not firing my t-shirts to the front row. Kill a man. Yeah, the mezzanine gets the shirts. And yeah, ballerslive.com. Tickets available now. We want to see you there. Very exciting.

Looking forward to that. That'll be towards the end of August. August 24th at Powell's Theater. Great venue. Should be a lot of fun. It will definitely. What is this should nonsense? It's just conversation.

It's not a good pitch. It will be. It's a 10th anniversary. We will have special things planned. It's a special show that we don't want you to miss. We will spend money we shouldn't. Oh, we're going to lose so much money on this. To do something we shouldn't. Again, price check on Jaws.

We can look into that. We can look into that. I don't know if you need to go to one of those movie memorabilia websites, the auctions. Somebody has to have the original Jaws for now. And I will ride him into the Palace Theater. Oh, man. Quick question of the day.

What player do you expect to see rise the most in average draft position throughout the offseason? Which we've had a couple of mock drafts in recent weeks. There are players whose values are currently, you know, not very high that we know aren't realistic for the way they're going to end up in the midst of draft season in August. You have the primary one that I think when we're on the mock draft show, we just know. Like, we know from experience.

We know from, you know, what's about to play out that one of these guys is just completely mispriced. So why don't you bring that up? So should I not even mention my guy? No, you should. It's too obvious? You should mention him first because he's the true like if you're in drafts right now this will not be his price later i will mention him with an asterisk to include some other players jonathan

brooks rookie running back of the carolina panthers currently drafted in the ninth round we know the facts around rookie running backs and opportunities and the fact that two at least two rookie running backs have finished inside the top 24 every year since 2012. So he has good odds of being one of those two. The depth chart, it's not intimidating in Carolina. He fits the mold of what Dave Canales wants to do with a pass catcher, somebody who's versatile like rashad white and so jonathan brooks right now not even close to where he's going to be drafted assuming you know his injury doesn't have an extra issue or something weird at camp but jonathan brooks ninth round is going to be much much higher

but i will say that like this is going to be true of several rookies whether it's uh depth chart battles and where you figure out where they actually stand on each of these teams, opportunities like that. Hype train. Yeah, those things are just going to happen. Yeah, you start seeing Keon Coleman being reported that he's got a great rapport and he's dominating in the red zone drills. All of a sudden, he's going to be flying through it.

When I look through it, I try. Yeah, he's right now and he's almost directly next to Jonathan Brooks. Yeah, I tried to avoid a rookie simply because, I mean, it's kind of a cheat code right now if you're in other drafts. Draft rookies, because they're not where they're going to finish. The guy that I am going to bring up as an ADP riser is just the guy I've believed in for as long as I've been alive. Zach Moss, superstar running back for the Cincinnati Bengals.

Right now he's the running back 31, just one spot ahead of Jonathan Brooks as the running back 32 in the ninth round. And this is a player that I think right now, people don't want to say that he is the starter, that he's going to be the primary dominator of touches. They're not sure. Maybe it's Zach Moss, and maybe it's – who is it? Chase Brown? Chris Brown.

Chase Brown. Chase Brown showed a lot of juice in very few plays last year. I just cannot believe that it's going to be Chase Brown. He was, I mean, he had an opportunity to get use. He didn't. They go out and they sign a guy that fits their system perfectly in Zach Moss. So I think as we get closer and it becomes more established, I think beat reporters will start saying this is zach moss's backfield brown will mix in a little bit but uh it'll be primary moss breaking news i was gonna bring it up it's pretty important yeah uh we have our research team is

just outstanding are we sold out at the palace No, that's like 10 minutes from now. The original Jaws animatronic shark, nicknamed Bruce the Shark, is on display at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures in Los Angeles. Based on Mike's research, Mike, break it down. 9.6 miles from the Palace Theater. That's where Jaws is. It's a 25-foot pound shark so logistically it's gonna take the whole foot clan to get it over there when they made jaws they made him 1200 pounds animatronics in the 70s you kidding me that's pure steel inside baby i was gonna say they only had steel probably but if there's someone who works at the academy museum of motion pictures in los angeles and you want to parade jaws down the street just 10 miles i was gonna say the easiest way to get him there is to parade down the street

gonna ride him yeah make it a big deal this is supposed to happen everybody so do that i imagine it takes a little while to get pushed 9.6 miles on a mechanical shark. Academy Museum of Motion Pictures. It's almost next door. Okay. So close. I'm asking chat GPT how we can get this done. Oh, really?

Yeah, they said they can't assist with that. It's illegal. Oh, it's illegal. Yeah. Well, we're borrowing. We're not going to keep it. Yeah, no, no. This is nothing illegal.

We're just borrowing it. Whenever you have to announce it's nothing illegal at the top. I'm not trying to keep it. It says even borrowing without permission is still illegal and unethical. We're getting permission. Bodying me on my morality? You're a robot. It doesn't say at the end.

Take a look in the mirror, pal. Yeah. Mike, who is your ADp riser somebody that you think is going to shoot up draft boards so i believe we've kind of mentioned him recently in passing but it's jerome ford is right now the rb42 he's going in the 12th round we have he's there right now because people are leaving margin and hope for Nick Chubb to come back from his devastating knee injury.

I'm just on the side of I don't think that Chubb's going to be ready to start the season. Who knows if he's ever going to be good this season, like back to being anything close to Nick Chubb. And last year, Jerome Ford was the RB17. He was a top 24 running back 11 times.

11 times. And with the information we have right now, Ford would project to be the guy who gets the most work. He's been with the team for years. One, they keep bringing him back. Two, he was pretty good for them last year. He was third on the team in targets per route run, so he's getting those

targets that are super valuable on top of all the work that he got on the ground last year. I think Chubb's going to be one that moves up too. He could. Potentially, because two videos of Nick Chubb running and he's going to shoot up draft boards. Which we will see before the season starts. Yeah, you'll see Nick Chubb running, and he's going to shoot up draft boards. Which we will see before the season starts.

Yeah, you'll see Nick Chubb running, but we saw Javante Williams running. This is why just beware. Beware of these injuries. There are Adrian Petersons in the world. They exist. There's some Wolverine blood going around for some of these elite athletes, but most of them it takes real time to recover, and that's why as of right now I'm betting against Nick Chubb,

and Jerome Ford in the 12th feels like just a free running back. Matthew Betts, our injury expert, he just posted a chart on the injury dip. Do you guys have that accessible um yeah it was it was it was it was like 71 percent yeah basically um we had him we've done this for years now um we've we've asked him to compile the guys who are lower in adp uh because of being injured or recovering from an injury and then we look after the season, what that expected ADP was versus how they finished. Buying the injury ADP last year in 2023 resulted in 71.4% of the time

failing to meet that ADP. And keep in mind, that ADP is the bargain ADP. It's already a depressed ADP. It's already a depressed ADP. And keep in mind that ADP is the bargain. It's already a depressed ADP. It's already a depressed ADP. So, I mean, sure. Sometimes it's not a hundred percent, 71%. So, you know, 29% of the time they are meeting it. But if you're just going to end up needing to, we talk about this all the time on the show, we're, we're making calculated bets that we are just trying to get better and better odds of being right this is like a clear clear cut bet that you make if you can be up at 71 percent of the time being correct

on a take then don't draft guys you know the the they're coming off the the training camp hamstring injury that's kept them out all summer but they're're back. They'll be fine for week one. Adrian Peterson is the one that ruins the situation is because, you know, or even like, like Brees Hall is one of those players that technically outperformed their ADP due to injury dip, but it wasn't a fun ride. Like the ride, it took a while to really get what you wanted. So, you know, don't let the outlier be the rule and leave you disappointed because it's going to take high draft capital selection sometimes there will be outliers but

it's finding edge and a 70 percentile edge in fantasy football is that's massive and to speak to jerome ford you know obviously they brought in deonta foreman and so there could be some debate as to whether you know Foreman will will take that big-bodied chub role but Ford was pretty darn good and I don't think he's by any means some sensational running back but he is very serviceable very capable he's 210 pounds runs a 4-4-6 he's not he's not a bum that can't handle it obviously we saw him thrust into that role and we have to keep it my cream hunt cream hunt was a part of this last year and he's gone yeah yeah yeah so it's almost hard to remember that feels like it was you know forever ago but last year cream hunt got a

ton of work and he's not on the roster all right let's talk about some news news and notes from around the league it was very uh enjoyable to me to watch kyron kyron williams return to the field and run through drills that's because you traded for him yep that's how it works um last thursday he he came back to field, so that was good because he had a minor issue that was, you know, I mentioned a trade offer to you, Jason, and you were afraid by his injury. It worried me for a little bit because he had dealt with a foot injury before and Kyron's only knock has been injuries. He's awesome when he's on the field, but he has a smaller back

and has an extreme workload. I'm still very, very much in on Kyron Williams. Uh, big offensive line upgrades there. Yeah. Yeah. Uh,

Shane Steichen said, Anthony Richardson is dealing with some soreness. This made headlines. He was throwing with his left hand, not his right. Um, he said, quote,

rest assured. If we had a game on Sunday, he'd be out there throwing with his left. Yeah. I mean, he's, he's ramping up, but you just don't want to hear about it at all. Right, you don't want to hear about it. The timeline was that he's supposed to be okay by training camp. We're not there yet. So the OG timeline is like he's still in recovery,

and we have seen him throwing powerfully with his right, but obviously he's getting sore right now because he hasn't been doing it through the entirety of the recovery so this is somewhat to be expected I will say this I I don't know if you guys watched the video of him in the camp because it was he throws at the end of this big long drill where he's you know doing all this footwork exercise looks great at at it. But I'm telling you right now, if he has to play lefty, it's not going to work. That throw was terrible. It was like full 10 yards over the guy's head. Still a powerful arm.

Breaking news, can't throw with opposite hand. And so I just want us to be aware. Maybe that's why he's practicing. We don't have left-hand rankings for all the right-handed quarterbacks on the UDK. The offhand? Yeah, the offhand. Darren Waller, guys. Oh, we have another announcement.

Ugoo goodbye. Darren Waller has finally, officially retired from the NFL. This will be the last time we announce his retirement, I hope. Can you retire a retirement statement? Because that's what I'm going to do today. He is gone. One year in New York. Yeah.

Drafted in 2015. It's a sad day for the show. It's a bummer. Darren Waller was, the year it happened, it was so much fun. It was a big hit for the show. The Walleris is a nickname that will hang from the rafters. And sad to see him go, but his body is done. His body's not playing football anymore.

It is funny to think he had a nine-year career, and he only had two seasons that were actually decent. Yeah, yeah, a lot of potential. And was in the upper echelon for a little while there. What else do we have? We have really important announcements. Mediocre signing of the week. The drop might be longer than in tenure with the team,

but Sterling Shepard, Shepard one year deal with the Bucs, and the Chiefs have re-signed McCall Hardman. The Bucs are doing weird things because we had the announcements that we're going to move Chris Godwin back into the slot. When Chris Godwin was great for fantasy football and looked like he was actually the number one wide receiver on the Bucs he was playing in the slot yeah and then like they're making all these moves where I'm like don't well they drag this

Jalen McMillan's a slot player yeah yeah Sterling Shepard yeah I would think that he should be in the slot he could play outside but he's great the slot honestly I think Sterling Shepard. Yeah, I would think that he should be in the slot. He could play outside, but he's great in the slot. Honestly, I think Sterling Shepard's just a really great NFL wide receiver or has been for – Yeah, before his body broke. He's 31 years old. A long time ago he was. Yes, yes, yes.

But they just – they're doing some weird stuff. Yeah, I mean, what do you trust? I don't trust that Chris Godwin's going to rejuvenate his entire career. I trust the fact that they're making moves that are contingency plans could be trust uh actions not words and McCall Hardman back and I you know that matters in as much as he's gonna be one of the active game day wide receivers for this team so you know they have a whole bunch of players at wide receiver and when hardman's there that means the justin ross truthers are going to be let down or whatever you know whatever the case may be it's going to be like hardman's just hitching a ride man yeah maybe he's going to be

their kick returner or something i am so excited yes Yes. For the return of the new rules. I am so excited to see the new kick return stuff. I forget it. It's happening this year. It's completely different now. The kickoff has been modified. Listening to coaches talk about how they – well, let me re-clarify. Listening to really smart, good coaches talk about how much they're working

on the kick return and all the data that they're getting on how they think that successful kick returners will have, what, like over 100 touches in that aspect of the game. I mean, this is going to be a big part. And it's funny because every year, every single season, you wait all year. Fantasy football season kicks off in August. September comes around. You got preseason.

And then you all gather for the kickoff, the first play of the season. To watch it go into the – To just not – Now it's like, okay, we'll be back after commercial. It's like now we get to see something. Mike McDaniel came out and said that he would not be surprised if within three or four weeks all the wide receiver ones and the skill position players were begging to have opportunities to return kicks because it's

the league has set up the new rules in a way where the stat the statistics show that injuries are not going to be a a disproportional aspect of the play and you're going to have it's more beneficial for the kick to land and be you know be received and run back and so because they're moving it out to what now isn't it like if it's a touchback yeah yeah it goes back further i don't know if you have the exact number here kyle it goes basically back to the i think it's a 25 or the 35. I thought it was something crazy like the 35. We'll look that up. It's been a while since it was announced. But I'm just excited for the opportunity for skill position players

and other players to produce plays that matter for fantasy. And yeah, most leagues don't count return yards, and it's going to be touchdown specific. But if my guy gets 100 chances to score a touchdown, I'll be excited. Yeah, it goes to the 30-yard line. Okay, 30. So that just means if you're a special teams or head coach, one of those coordinators, you're saying,

we got 30 yards to get a guy to tackle him to where it's a net positive for us. So you're going to be kicking it to the player over and over. And if you've got a Devon Achan back there returning kicks, that's going to result in a couple touchdowns. So look at your league scoring settings because some, I think every league should reward special teams touchdowns to the player, but I think it's still in the minority that do that, but there's a healthy amount that do. Even rookies with opportunities on kickoffs, like Trey Benson in Arizona, does he get a chance to do that like David Johnson did?

It'll be fun to see, fun to watch. All right, quick break. Back with some mailbag. All right, let's jump into it. Mailbag. Mailbag. All right, if you have a question for the show, go to the website, dfantasyfootballers.com,

click the submit a question button, or dial our voicemail hotline, 302464-TFFB. You got a voicemail today, Al? We do. All right, let's do it. Ballers, this is Bradley from up in Canada. Super curious to know your guys' favorite stack going into the 2024 season. Appreciate it, fellas.

Bonjour. Yeah, favorite stack. Is this including ADP? Yeah, no, this is including ADP like if you're looking at the 2024 season what have you been targeting I could say that the one I have the most right now is that I think we we I think Andy did you do this on the mock it was that three four turn of grabbing Jalen Hurts and Devante Smith together it's easy to do and you're not grabbing two onesie positions so I like that.

I will throw out that I think it's the best year ever, even though you don't know where to target it. There's going to be success with Mahomes. Mahomes is cheaper than ever falling to the fourth round. You don't usually get that in the last couple years. He's been a second-round pick. And then his wide receiver options, because they are a little bit more nebulous and you're not sure if it's going to be Hollywood Brown or if you want to wait on Rushie Rice or whatever, but all of their values, they don't cost a lot.

So it's an actual easy stack to pull off that could be very valuable down the road. And even though I don't like to do the two early onesie positions, like the cost right now on the Kelsey Mahomes and just own that and hope that the chiefs have you know a bounce back to what they have just just near just near what they've been averaging the previous five years and touchdowns per game that could be very valuable for fantasy i could see jayden reed jordan love happening sure for later round stacks where you know you get a more upside my my favorite stack considering you get a little bit of a later quarterback it it's jamar and joe burrow like joe burrow is going right now as qb7 over on sleeper uh so i like if for high and wide receiver budget quarterback the kyler marvin harrison

junior stack is very interesting as well and then i if I leave, I've talked about Jared Goff as kind of my safety net at quarterback. If I can leave the draft with Amon Raw and Jared Goff, I'm happy. At least the first two weeks, maybe Jared Goff isn't my entire answer at the quarterback position, but I have the confidence to at least those two games, that's fine. I'll start with Goff. Amon Ra is the seventh pick off the board. So is that something where if you ended up in that position

where you could draft Amon Ra, you were actively changing your quarterback strategy? I don't know that I would actively change it. To seek out the stack? I'm going to make sure that whatever, if I'm using the UDK or if I'm using an old man printed sheet like andy like i'm making sure that i have a note that i'm not going to forget that like before you select your quarterback make sure you like this adp you got almond wrong you

can get golf later if you want yeah and that's one of those things where it doesn't change your strategy like now i'm i'm absolutely targeted, but it is, oh, should you go through the draft and now you're in late quarterback mode, then yeah, if you're like, oh, like I'm looking at ADP and it's like, oh, Justin Herbert and Jared Goff are going near each other, well, complete that stack. It does work in redraft leagues as well. It's not just a best ball tournament. I mean, if you're playing best ball, you pretty much have to stack, but we had one of the DeSorbo brothers do a study on this for redraft leagues, and it proved to be valuable in redraft to have that stack.

So, you know, put them together. All right. By the way, I do my cheat sheets on typewriter, actually, Mike. It's typewriter. Okay. Grant says, is Drake London off your board if you drafted Bijon? If not, is adding Kirk Cousins late in the draft too many players from one team? Someone

likes their Falcons. Yeah. If I start my team with Bijan, that's so difficult to have such overexposure to pure hope where the Falcons have not,

we don't have a track record here of like this is the Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers where you're like, yeah, I'm going to load up. Like Prime Rodgers, everyone on that team was great. Or like the Peyton Manning years when he was on the Denver Broncos. You could be just overexposed to that team because you know it's going to be great. Drake's a second-round pick. You can't do this. Yeah, you can't do this.

He's really in the second? 2-0-6. There's no reason to do this. No, I can't do it. It's not to say that there isn't a world that exists where both those players end up beating their ADP at the same time, and it works out. Again, we're just trying to bet on probability and probability says that that both those guys don't outstandingly outproduce

their ADP and in a way you know we talk about the stack because you get double touchdowns at the same time so it's a weak winning performance that you get when you've got a running back and a wide receiver from the same team they're going to kind of inverse correlate because you know every Bijon touchdown is a touchdown that won't be scored by Drake London. But the problem with Drake London is right now, let's take Bijon out of the equation. I'm okay drafting Drake London, but he is darn near being drafted at his ceiling already. You know, he's sandwiched right now between Marvin Harrison Jr. and Devontae Adams. If you go wider, you're talking about Chris Olave and you've got whatever Texan wide receiver you want.

There's no reason to put all your chips in the Falcons' basket. All of a sudden, Kirk Cousins has a problem with the Achilles, doesn't come back, and now your first and second round pick are just toast? No. doesn't come back and now your first and second round pick are just toast no yeah if you told me it was a flyer on a guy in the eighth round that happens to be on the same team I don't care at that point these are two have to depend on them selections yeah so when the question is like is he off your board well no he's not off my board if he falls to the fourth but he won't fall to the third so yeah he's off my board yeah

he might be off my board regardless of the bijon question where he's going like drake london this year just seems risk i can't see myself drafting him right i can see myself drafting him but i i will fully admit that the risk reward balance scale is far more on the risk side when the when you factor in where he's going and and what you could take instead of him i can't imagine you on the board with marvin harrison jr oh no no way there's a couple there's there's still a couple um at adp i have other wide receivers ahead of them right right yeah youtube question from jj he says will Pat Frymuth have a career year due to Arthur Smith? Probably not.

Will he get loose? Probably not. I think absolutely yes. Mike? The question is because last year, 34% of Atlanta's targets went to the tight end position. Now, that was number one in the NFL. It was mostly split up

between Jonu Smith and Kyle Pitts to the point of not really pleased with either of those guys if you were starting them on a continual basis. And is that what Arthur is going to do again? Will he find another player on the team that you end up losing. If Friar Muth could somehow see a 20-plus percent target share, then yeah, he'd have a career year and he'd be great for fantasy football. I think he's a good tight end who he has enough skills as a receiver that if he gets featured, he can come through. But I don't know that he's going to get that featured role.

Yeah, I mean, when I say absolutely yes, I think he has his best season of his career. That's not to say that he's still good for fantasy. So his number eight finish was 63 for 732-2. Exactly. That's a pretty solid year. That's solid, but that's two touchdowns. That's not that great for a fantasy finish.

I mean, I know he finishes the tight end eight. I'm not sure I want you to say absolutely yes about me at some point in time. You just said absolutely yes, and then now you're taking it all back. I'm saying that he has his career year this season. I think that's absolutely true, but he can have a career year. He can

get to 750-4 he can have a career year. He can get to 750 and four. That's his career year and still not really be a difference maker for fantasy is what I'm saying. But with, I mean, you've got Deontay Johnson is gone. And so the amount of targets vacated, you've got a quarterback change and an offensive coordinator change that seems like it should be improvements for Friar Muth and he was dealing with injury last year so I if I have to you know push my chips somewhere I believe he has a bounce back season I think they need him to like this offense really needs him to be a quality weapon in the past I think I think the big question is just you know going into year

four who is Pat Friar Muth really sure you know is he is he capable of going ingram and nojoku later in his career i think or is he is he more middle of the road where we just accept like you're not going to build your offense around him he might score some touchdowns he might be kyle rudolph that's a tough thing to predict with arthur smith and pittsburgh the projected he's also been hurt every year. The projected wide receiver starters for the Steelers right now are George Pickens, Van Jefferson, and Roman Wilson. Yeah, they need him.

And I do think that he's – Who's their other tight ends? Because that's who I would bank on. You have Darnell Washington. Darnell Washington is the monstrous beast. Career year. But I don't see him having – i don't think he's a superstar where you build your offense around him but sticking with the steelers like a heath miller type who

was very good for a long time um i i think that that is in the easy range of outcomes for fryer buth all right a question from nathan he says do says, do running quarterbacks really take away from overall running back production? They obviously take away volume, but I would expect running back efficiency to be boosted. So we do have data on this. Yeah, I mean, the running back efficiency sometimes is boosted, but in the end, we've got a whole article on this.

But since 2015, only one running back has scored 15 fantasy points per game alongside a quarterback who scored 100 plus total rushing fantasy points. So it is rare. The ceiling gets lower. Exactly, because the rushing touchdowns from those quarterbacks is one thing, but then also you've got scrambles that don't turn into dump-offs. I think that's the more continuous throughout the game, because you might finish a game where the quarterback didn't have a rushing touchdown, he didn't vulture a rushing touchdown,

but what he did do is on all these plays where a Kirk Cousins would just check the ball down to the running back because the pass rush is getting there. Lamar takes off or whoever takes off. Anthony Richardson should take off running. It's probably their best play. Yeah, Lamar's teams, they are bottom five in running back target percentage. And then over the last two years, Jalen Hurts, the Eagles have been 28th in targets to the running back position.

It's one of the reasons i did move saquon in our league of record was fear of that situation i i guess i'm just asking jonathan taylor with how how you guys feel about anthony richardson and then you know saquon barkley with Jalen Hurts like do you factor this question into the considerations there I do of it again this is really ceiling where Jonathan Taylor to me I well at least what I watched last year was that's a guy who could still be the RB1 in the framework around him, it'll be really difficult for him to get there because of receptions. You have to have receptions. But for me, like Saquon,

the fact that you have so many Jalen Hurts one-yard touchdowns, at least we did last year, and not even just the one yard of sometimes they'll get to the two and they say, we're going to do this two times in a row and see if it works.

You have that combined with low target share plus Saquon's age. Barkley's an interesting fantasy player for me this year where I can see every single path and talk myself into it. But at the end, I don't like his ADP and I don't think he's going to be on a lot of my teams I will say this the one running back who had 15 fantasy points per game with the Russian quarterback Saquon Barkley yeah Daniel Jones also so that the full clan has good context here when we say that we really are just talking about upside not whether they're good for fantasy last year for context and half ppr there were only five running backs who scored 15 fantasy

points or more on a per game basis one of which was alvin camara who obviously you got to go per game because he missed a big chunk of the season so i mean you're talking about the best of the best who get to that point in half ppr so like can uh, can Jonathan Taylor be the number one running back? Probably not. Can he still be outstanding for fantasy football and, you know, the running back five or six? Yeah, I think he can. For the fun of it, I wanted to look back at last year's stats

and see the rushing leaders at the quarterback position. Okay. Number one. This is where I'm going to fill in the blank. Oh, okay. What are we doing? Yardage. Yardage?

Yeah. Because I was just saying you could think real quick about what the running backs did. Rushing yardage for quarterbacks? Yeah. Like Lamar? Lamar was one. Okay. Fields was two. Oh, Fields was two.

Yeah. Hurts was three. And we're at 605 yards. Josh Allen was four. Yeah. Joshua Dobbs was fifth. Yeah. That's why you could stream him sometimes.

Taysom Hill counted in our stats as sixth. Then it was Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Okay. Russell Wilson still at eight last year with 341 yards. You did not have – I mean, that's like less than a third of the quarterbacks at 300 or above yeah i mean obviously no richardson we add in anthony richardson and jayden no kyler for the season yeah so i think it it should have more of an impact this season unless three of them just

get knocked out hurt every year sure i mean one of those wasn't hurt last year yeah yeah all right quick break back with some more questions. Instagram question from Evan Randall. Says, Josh Jacobs or Stefan Diggs? Right now they're going back to back in ADP on sleeper. Right now. Top of the third. They are both being drafted much higher than we think of them. I would much rather, like if I had to take the gamble,

I'm taking the gamble with Josh Jacobs. I feel like, and Jason, you've said this, like I can see, I can see the path for Jacobs to have a great year. Yeah. I think it's. And I guess I could see that path a Jacobs to have a great year. Yeah. I guess I could see that path a little bit for Diggs too, but it's much riskier because of one team tried to get rid of Stephon Diggs and he's on the older side of the prime. The other team went out and pursued Josh Jacobs to give him opportunities.

Yeah. I saw one player be terrible the whole season, and I saw one player be terrible for like half a season. So does that mean that you – Between these two, I would take the chance on Stephon Diggs. It's crazy. For a terrible season for Josh Jacobs, he had a heck of a middle. Fifth, sixth, tenth, second.

These are both players that I'm generally passing on in my draft i like other guys around where they're going and i i see the pathway for them to be unsuccessful at their draft position right now but if i had to pick one of these guys it would be josh jacobs i know i've poo-pooed a lot on um you know is that an absolutely yes josh jacobs or just a regular yes that's just a regular yes on josh j Josh Jacobs. There is a clear and obvious path towards fantasy success. He's replacing someone who almost every year was a top 12 running back. He's going to a great offense. Two years ago he led the league in running,

and he's getting paid a lot of money. So the options for Josh Jacobs to have a great season are certainly there. ETN is two spots behind him Etienne has two spots behind him. Henry has five spots behind him. Yeah, I'd rather have both of those. Pacheco's around behind him. Yeah, this is why. Chad White's around behind him.

This is why I'm not drafting either of those guys, but the pathway is there. Stephon Diggs is tough because even if Stephon Diggs has a good season, and this is kind of my hardest. This is why I'm drafting Tank Dell if I grab one of the three, because I could see all three having good seasons. But the problem is, if all three have good seasons, they're coming in inconsistent formatting. You know what I mean? It's not like all three are going to have good weeks every week. It's going to be this is a Nico week, this is a Diggs week, this is a Dell week.

You taking Mike Evans over Stefan Diggs? Yeah, I think, yes, I would take Mike Evans over Stefan Diggs. You too, Mike? Yeah. A Dell week? Sorry. No, that's all I heard too. I heard it.

Hello? Yeah. I couldn't find the joke though. Is it me you're looking for? That's Lionel Richie. Oh, yeah. Why did you sing that, Jay? Because Adele has a, hello.

Oh, that's right. It's me. That's a Lionel Richie week. Oh, man. Guys, I've been sick all weekend. Can we get Adele to cover that song? Because she's awesome. I just sang Lionel Richie.

That song's great, though. I know it is, but it has nothing to do with Adele. They both say hello. It's the hello from the other side. Yep, that's the one. Oh, dang. Are we going to do a mashup? Are you getting that going, Al?

Yeah, I can handle that all right we're moving on uh telio crown says what do you three gentlemen look at when making tiers for players jason you're the man to answer this yeah so we we look at a lot of different factors we're trying to group players together with the the most likely range of outcomes it's not just so when we stat people out for the UDK, we've got their kind of median expected projection in there. We give a risk rating. We give an upside meter with them.

But when we group them for tiers, there might be two players who are actually pretty close. You might look and you're like, well, these guys are only projected to be two points apart. And there's a tier break between them. That's because we're making intentional efforts to group the players together where we feel like when you draft one of those guys in the tier at the front versus the back, you've got a similar enough range of outcomes between them. It helps you take the right position every round because you can look and say, I'm maximizing my value.

There's so many people left that have the same range of outcome. There's only one guy left at this position with that range of outcome. I'll take that one. All right. Instagram question from Bwieland says, Am I crazy for being all in, all capitals, on Troy Franklin? Hey, it's Franklin. I forgot we had that.

Crazy mate. If you're all in, that's crazy. What does it even mean to be all in on? Drafting him on every single one of your squats. But he costs nothing. Yeah, but there's other guys who cost nothing. So this is wild, okay? 4% of the 165 wide receivers drafted on day three over the last decade have hit 10-plus fantasy points in year one.

The 4%? 4%. Do you remember earlier this episode when we said a 71% bet is a great bet to take? This would be a 96% bet against Troy Franklin being good this season. However, let's just make it a little worse because he's got a rookie quarterback. And so the combination of how a rookie quarterback helps sustain a wide receiver one for redraft purposes. I mean, look, I love Troy Franklin.

I'm the Troy Franklin Stan here. I don't remember how you – I liked him not as much as you were the captain. I loved Troy Franklin. Absolutely, Captain. I'll stamp that. I'll tattoo that. I was pre-NFL draft.

Absolutely, yes. I was an absolutely yes on Troy Franklin. I still love his traits. I hope that he works out. I'm 100% betting against Troy Franklin working out this year. Gotcha. He's going to be in the gym?

That's what I heard. That's what I heard. Because we're dumb. We hear dumb things. I don't like it. Swish! Hello from the other side. Happy offseason, everybody.

Just imagine what our live 10th anniversary show will be i don't like troy franklin i didn't like him pre-nfl draft however i've i think that's that's kind of misleading because how so because day three spans the fourth round through the end of the draft and so many of those when you're talking about 6th and 7th round picks, they're all special teamers. Like we should be looking at least at the 4th round and then we should look at the hit rate is like the guys

who do it. We could get up to 10% here. The guys who actually have overcome, they're mostly 5th rounders. Oh, Puka. Puka, Tyreek, Slayton. So that's an Amon Ross St. Brown. I said mostly. Okay.

Stephon Diggs was a fifth rounder. Like I said, not misleading at all. Terrible odds. And I did see Sean Payton talking about Mims again. Oh, no. He talks about him all the time. No. He does talk about Mims a lot.

He talked about him all last year. I'm going to get him more involved. You liar. Yeah, but it was as soon as Jerry Judy's gone, I can get Mims on the field. Some coaches are going to be so happy that they can just ostracize some of these players on that kick return play I was talking about.

And then think about the conversation you have with the, hey coach, why am I not getting any wide receiver snaps? You are just too important. You are so important. Except it might be true now. I know. But like Mims, I bet you Mims is returning kicks.

Oh, and he'll be exceptional at it. And Franklin will be dying to do it. Yeah, Franklin, get on the field, buddy. Show what you got. Show them afterburners. Honestly, him working out in the way that we said would be good for him. That's true. He's a raider.

He's 176 pounds. Although I think he was like 180 something at his pro day. Wow. This question comes from Instagram Nick C. Mitchell. Can you explain why you believe in Brian Thomas so much? It's directly towards Andy. Yeah. Andy, you have the floor.

Let me see his ADP right now. 904. Okay. So I'm very... Unlike when we had the discussion about Malik Neighbors, a player that we all love and we believe in, Malik Neighbors is being drafted very, very high.

What do you mean, like top five in the NFL draft? No. He's being drafted third round. Okay? Malik Neighbors is a third round pick. You don't get a discount on taking the chance on the rookie. Brian Thomas being in the ninth round is one of the reasons that I love him. He's got huge opportunity in front of him.

He is the best athlete on that team at wide receiver already. Like, that's just, it's done. Like, they don't have Calvin Ridley anymore. Christian Kirk is a great player. He's a great wide receiver. He's a tactician. He's a route runner. He's not a better athlete than Brian Thomas. Gabe Davis, not a better athlete than Brian Thomas. So I believe that the cream rises to the top and that he's going to have opportunity from the jump and he'll take advantage of that opportunity. So to me,

that is a good bet. Now, if you told me Brian Thomas was being priced at the ceiling, we're not having many conversations about Brian Thomas anymore. So that's my number one reason I love him is that right now he sits there as a late eighth, early ninth flyer pick. He's probably one of the guys like in our quick question that'll rise up the draft boards and ruin this entire discussion. But as of today, that's one of the reasons. And I loved what I saw on film from him. He was one of my favorite players. He was ranked very high in my rookie ranking.

So if you go to straight opportunity, I'm going to fall in love a little bit. Yeah, and there's like the cut up of Trevor Lawrence just missing on so many opportunities for huge plays, which Kyle just dug this up. Lawrence was second in the NFL in 20-plus area yard touchdowns last year behind Brock Purdy. But there was so much meat left on the bone, and maybe Brian Thomas clicks with Trevor Lawrence, and those start to connect more often.

The bet to me on Brian Thomas, ninth round, he was the first round, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yes. When we talk about targeting rookie-wide receivers in your fantasy draft, that's what we're talking about. It's guys who were in the first round who are being drafted as afterthoughts, as sleepers. Those are the players that you really should load up on those guys. I didn't like Brian Thomas nearly as much as Andy, but I know my strategy of going after

rookies in a certain position, so that's where I'm going to do it. But my point being, it's more a bet on can Trevor Lawrence take the step that we've been waiting for him to take. Yeah, and it's really touchdowns. Touchdowns to me are the – that's what hasn't clicked for Trevor Lawrence, and that's going to be what makes Brian Thomas actually a star. How do you feel about Jermaine Burton? Redraft possibilities for Jermaine Burton in Cincinnati. Because you loved him on film.

Yes. Alabama. Yep. Yeah, there was so much about his profile to love. Tyler Boyd. Drops into the third round, presumably because of off-the-field stuff, which, look, that's a red flag go like if you're if you if some scouts are saying you're a first round talent and you drop into the third because you have already

gotten into it with two different coaching staffs that's a problem but you can overcome those like people evolve they mature but in terms of redraft I put the odds lower because I I think that T plays out the year yeah and he's a deep like best ball if you want to take some shots in a best ball league um on Jermaine Burton I love that late in your draft because he's someone that could catch a few over the top top behind the defense balls from burrow you know he averaged over 20 yards a catch his last season um alabama but i redrafted does feel difficult behind you know without an injury to t higgins or obviously chase isaac in california says hey ballers my girlfriend beat me in fantasy in her first year in our league. Did knock me out of the playoffs and put her into the playoffs.

She brings it up any time we talk about football. Is there any coming back from this? I have been playing for 10 years, and this was her first time ever. I would say I don't think you have to, man. That sounds great. The losing part, not great. But the fact that you have somebody that you're with who it seems to be like entering a very passionate phase of being a fantasy football

player and you guys you can share that together she brings it up every time we talk about football that's awesome congratulations yeah but also you can't come back you can't come back i mean i agree with mike like this is really cool but now you are you come back. You can't come back. I mean, I agree with Mike. Like, this is really cool, but now you're just a loser. What is death may never die. You've now got a wonderful partner, you loser. You know what I mean? Like, that's kind of how I feel.

Forever. Someone still wants to be with you. Right. That's crazy. You know what I mean? Why would she stay? Oh, that's a good point. No, it's a good point. That's the actual argument know what I mean? Why would she stay? Oh, that's a good point. It's a good point.

That's the actual argument here. She could do better. She turns you into a loser, and she still sees redeeming qualities about you. Oh, man. Good for you. For now. What an angel. She goes back to back.

She's out of there. Not going to last. No, good luck, man, finding somebody new. All right, that is going to do it for today's episode of the show. Come and see us live in Los Angeles, August 24th at the Palace Theater. Ballerslive.com. Head there right now and grab your tickets. We are excited.

It's going to be fun. Celebrate our 10th anniversary. My goodness. We've got to get that shark. Goodbye. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast.

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