Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Good Vibes, Bad Vibes + Waiver Strategy Talk - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/29

Episode Date: August 29, 2023

Preseason takeaways on today’s fantasy football podcast! Find out which teams are giving good and bad vibes as we enter the 2023 fantasy football season! Plus, a waiver wire strategy segment and NFL News! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for August 29th, 2023. Dive into the 2023 Ultimate Draft Kit + Draft Analyzer! UltimateDraftKit.com Compete in the largest fantasy football league! Megalabowl.com Connect with the Fantasy Footballers Podcast: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on Twitter Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Check out today's sponsors: News & Notes presented by USAA. Visit https://USAA.com/Insurance Welcome to the Waiver Wire, presented by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube and YouTube TV. Visit https://youtube.com/fantasyfootballers #ad Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. Hey, we got a great show for you today. And if you're drafting this weekend, don't forget to pick up the UDK or the UDK plus is the ultimate draft kit. The number one tool to help you win

at your draft set the foundation for your team we're talking sleepers breakouts bus we're talking cheat sheet you can print it out we've marked up all of our my guys all of those special position upgrades for your team check it out at ultimate draft kit.com Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. We're back. Tuesday, August 29th. The Fantasy Footballers. Jason Moore, Mike Wright, Andy Holloway.

Back in the building. I've just barely seen each of you this morning back from our trip to los angeles and it seems that you've recovered your voices uh mostly yeah we'll find out tbd how's it feel it still hurts a little bit. Yeah? Yeah. Everything in me feels like it hurts a little bit. I'm pretty tired. I'm going to be honest with you. We had a trip. Being old is overrated. But I still recommend it.

Being old? Oh, I highly recommend getting there. Yeah. Yeah, I guess it's better than the alternative. Yeah. We are back in business here in the studios the deuces are here judge giamatti alborlan the ramp scallion hanging out in deuces alley today um i believe brooks told me that he got back from the trip and slept

from 5 30 p.m till 4 30 in the morning so a solid 11-hour run. Yes, sir. Last night. Yeah. Nicely done. It wasn't as much sleep on the journey. So we drove into L.A., spent a whole day at the NFL, which was a cool experience. Hadn't done that before. Checked out, got to see SoFi, and then filmed a Dynasty episode of the podcast at the NFL

and some other hits around the NFL. Yeah, did a Rich Eisen spot. The NFL has a new headquarters at SoFi. And let me just tell you, the Foot Clan, in case there's any concerns, the NFL's doing very well. Just so everybody is aware, I think they're here to stay man because when we took that tour they are doing real real good didn't hit you like a uh a fledgling startup no no they got some cool stuff over there so we did that and then obviously on saturday we had

the megala show in los angeles thank you to everybody that came out. That was really cool. An amazing time. We're hoping Al Borland gets to rest up a bit. I mean, he did a few things for the show. He was the general. Everything! It was a lot of fun.

And the Rapscallion shared on our social, there's like a one and a half minute really well done edit of kind of the highlights of that trip. And it involved, my favorite moment of it was this very brief second that Al Borland was shown on camera. And he just kind of looked, he had his hands, I think, crossed and he just smiled. And it was like it had been done. That was the, are you actually recording me right now i know i know that's what it was but i want to believe it was it was peace with the

fact that the show went off very well oh no my favorite part was seeing the the camera angles from behind us mid-show and realizing wait when the heck was he walking behind us during the show i had no idea good job you were locked in i was locked in and jason did he he broke out the t-shirt canon yes uh which for the record times with t-shirts sometimes jason fired off a uh if you haven't seen the video middle of the show he's like i'm gonna be real cool here i'm gonna fire off a t-shirt in the middle of the show with my canon at least he didn't spend several moments setting up yes letting everyone know this was going to happen and then fired absolutely nothing into the air and realized he was sitting on the t-shirt

that was pretty funny uh but welcome and today we've got good vibes bad vibes we'll be reflecting on what's taken place over the preseason. Maybe some fantasy insights from what has taken place. We've got NFL news to cover today. We've got a new Waver Wire segment today. And, yeah, it's going to be a good show. There's a lot going on. We're not that far away from kickoff. No, I'm realizing it more and more how close we are.

I think the the thing that really helped me realize like oh man it is upon us is the fact that right now i'm in three different main league drafts like right uh it's yeah as we speak a couple of slow drafts that we're in the middle of yeah and i'm like oh my gosh this is this is not a mock draft anymore it's it's here. It's real. Jason, I'm going to warn you ahead of time. Be careful with the voice here. But the Megalobowl is open right now.

If you go to Megalobowl.com, that is the largest in-season tournament, so season long. And we are up around 13,000 entries so far. We're very competitive. We want to break the record from last year, which was about 22,000. So head over there, megalobull.com. You'll learn all the details on how to enter.

And the winner, not only do you go down in the annals of history, but you receive a spot in the 2024 Listener League with us. So megalobull.com to check that out. Here's today's quick question. Good vibrations. All right, we're looking at good vibes or bad vibes from the preseason and how that might change the way things shake out for fantasy players because we spend a whole offseason with kind of narrative storylines,

assumptions about teams. Some of these transactions that took place they changed them so i i will start simply because yours yours was going to be mine was it yes i'm look it's been fun in a way in the kind of way where you you know self-deprecating way where to make fun of the Cardinals this offseason. That was their theme music from the offseason. And it continues. They cut Colt McCoy, who was the presumed starter of the Cardinals,

at the quarterback position with Kyler being on the PUP and not being available. So they just cut him, which makes more sense now in the fact that they traded for Joshua Dobbs. Which at the time made no sense. Yeah. And then Clayton Toon, their other rookie option at quarterback, and Dobbs are now in contention to start the season as the Cardinals quarterback and I don't know did you hear David Blau is still there no no no the clip yes where so Jonathan Gannon has come out and said he will not be revealing his starter due to competitive

advantage fired immediately you're not a fan of that line It's the stupidest crap in the NFL. There's the old adage, if you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks. And you're right now trying to say we have two potential options. You have no options. If I am a general manager and my coach ever does that, I'm immediately fired. Immediately. I think that's a bit much. No, no, it's not enough.

Like, I wish there was more I could do as an employer. You're in prison. I am firing you, and I'm putting you in jail. I will put you in front of a jury, and we're talking probably seven to ten years. Fired. Okay, so here's the deal. If it's Dobbs, who we watched play briefly last year with Tannehill out and the Malik Willis looking awful,

and then Dobbs pretty much just trying to survive in Tennessee, or it's a rookie in Clayton Toon, I think fantasy players have a legitimate concern at this point. James Conner is going to get all the work in that backfield. Hollywood Brown should get all of the targets in the wide receiver room because across from him is going to be a rookie in Michael Wilson. And yet, we are now at a level of quarterback play, at least at a level.

No, man, there's two potential starters. We're at a place where this could be potentially real bad. I'm talking Kellen Mond against the Packers. I'm talking Ian Book for the New Orleans Saints. You're not going to get a ceiling with either of these players. Cole McCoy had some games in Arizona, and I think he was pretty much toast. It's fine. They moved on.

He couldn't get the ball down the field. So at least in that regard, maybe Clayton Toon throws some of them up for Hollywood. But Hollywood and James Conner no longer have a floor that I thought they have. At least that's my take. I think the floor is lava, yes, for Hollywood and James Conner and late round uh last round pick michael wilson sometimes for zach gertz for trey mcbride um it's bad and the cardinals i i don't know if they are like in the building tanking but they i think they might be i think

it might be like very i mean they gave away isaiah simmons for a seventh round draft pick yes that part is is actually a big deal to me and because why would you possibly do that it maybe yes he's not the player that you thought you were drafting he was a top 10 pick linebacker he can still make plays for your defense like if he's on your roster he's still going to play to me that was a full-on salary dump. They're like, we don't want to deal with this. Which is what Colt McCoy's was too. I mean, you are settling up for next year.

We're going to be bad, so let's start saving some cash. And I heard Mike Jarecki out here in Arizona, he's talking about Kyler will definitely play this year. I don't know if that's true. It seems like he probably will in the back half of the year, but is that to put him on display for a trade in the offseason if they have the number one pick? I don't know.

The vibes are as bad as bad can be in Arizona. They are seven-point underdogs to start the year. Really? Seven-point dogs. Seven-point dogs to start. To Sam Howell. To Sam Howell and the commander. I forgot who it was. And so.

This isn't, you know, going and playing against Herbert. Yeah, I mean, and Buda Baker on the defense is the last man standing. And I don't think it's going to be very fun. So very, very bad vibes in Arizona. And enough to where i took hollywood brown pretty late in a draft it should have been fine it should have made me feel good and it made me feel like oh he has felt like a good pick all off season based off his adp being the number one guy hoping that kyler will be back sooner than later

and you have an adequate quarterback to support you in the meantime and now it's maybe maybe dobbs or tune actually comes through i think clayton tune if i'm remembering correctly was like pff's highest graded passer last year in college so maybe but i'm with you that the vibes are just now Jason you once owned a Max Hall jersey I sure did it seems like I still do this seems like your moment like a Clayton Toon jersey well the problem is Max Hall dominated preseason Clayton Toon hasn't even been that good no no one for the Cardinals has been great in the preseason, certainly not as good as some of the other later drafted quarterbacks. Can't remember the Raiders.

Who's the Raiders pick that they got? That quarterback has been tearing it up. I can't remember his name, but he's been great in the preseason. I want to switch gears here. Raiders quarterback? Aiden O'Connell. Thank you. Aiden O'Connell.

Aiden O'Connell. Thank you. Aiden O'Connell. Aiden O'Connell. I want to switch gears and talk about a positive good vibrations. The segment came in with a good vibrations drop, and then we hit them with the Cardinals. Sorry about that. I should have let you go first. To me, I think the winners of the preseason are the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their preseason has looked as good as it gets.

And I know, like this last game, they were playing starters against backups. You better look good. But they still did, right? So you can only play who's ever across the field, and there was the world where they come out and they look mediocre or average against second stringers, and instead, they just flat dominated them. It was like you blinked your eyes and it was 17 to nothing. And specifically, Kenny Pickett, to me, he is the question and the answer of how the

Pittsburgh Steelers offense will perform. I like Najja Harris. I love Jalen Warren for where he's going in drafts. I think Deontay Johnson is going to be a huge value this year. Pat Fryermuth, great late round tight end. There's a lot of weapons here. Even guys like Calvin Austin late in best ball drafts, I love. Of course, you've got everyone's favorite sensation

in George Pickens, the highlight reel. But it doesn't matter if Kenny Pickett's not good, if he doesn't take a step forward. And everything that I have seen in preseason looks good from him. The way he's reading, the way he's throwing the ball into tight windows, trusting receivers, leading receivers, running an offense, seeming like he's throwing the ball into tight windows, trusting receivers, leading receivers, running an offense, seeming like he's in full command of the leadership, like he's not a rookie anymore. And he doesn't look like a rookie anymore.

His preseason has been great. I think he's got two incompletions through all of preseason, a couple of touchdowns, no interceptions. So the vibes for me have just been really, really positive, and I think this is going to not be a top 10 offense, but I think it's between 10 and 16. It's a top half offense. And when you go from the putrid horse crap we saw last year

to a top half offense, that is a huge fantasy value sauce. All right. I mean, look, I – I had you till sauce. Yeah, I mean, that was a bad finish. What is it? It's a huge – that gap in value from when they suck last year to being positive this year.

I don't know if it's sauce, but it could be. It's like a secret sauce. Opportunity, yeah. It is. There we go. It is an opportunity, and I watched every play from Kenny Pickett this preseason a couple of times. You know, you go to last year, and he did complete 63% of his passes.

He had the occasional kind of play where he put, you know, you go to last year, and he did complete 63% of his passes. He had the occasional kind of play where he put, you know, he was able to move in the pocket or escape the pocket and find a guy downfield. It just wasn't – he wasn't able to sustain drives the way he was in the preseason, complete them, right? He was the field goal king over that back half of the run where they actually had won some games. But this preseason, that's been the impressive thing,

is the drives are being finished. They're actually getting into the end zone. And, you know, it's made me look, specifically Deontay Johnson and Pat Friar-Muse way more in drafts. And Deontay Johnson, if you haven't been paying attention, has been used a little bit deeper, a little bit further downfield this preseason, which is nice to see.

You don't want a guy finishing the season out here with, like, nine, ten yards reception. Yeah, and like Jason said, there's a lot of sauce there. Yeah, secret sauce for fantasy goodness. Mike. I will jump in here, and it's the Denver Broncos, and I have them down from weirdish yeah too bad hmm uh I agree it all I mean it it started off the offseason started off hot for the Denver Broncos it was

they may they ripped the band-aid off Nathaniel Hackett's out they trade the draft capital they give the cash to Sean Payton who was you know having was having a good life on television. He comes in. He's going to save everything. And then we get right into a really strange media fight where there is definitely an unspoken rule among the NFL of coaches. Just don't trash other coaches. You don't do it.

Sean Payton said, I don't care about that rule. And then he went after Nathaniel Hackett, which was like, why? Why are we doing this? And then if you start thinking about the human nature, you go, are you hedging, Sean Payton? Are you saying that this year is going to take me multiple years to climb out of? Yeah, are you saying that this team is going to be bad? Don't blame me.

I'm still cleaning up the mess from the other guy. That's kind of a strange way to start off the offseason. The injuries, that's no one's fault, but it's just they are piling up. Tim Patrick, a.k.a. Fireball Jones, I mean, he's out for the year. Who knows if his career is ever going to get back on track. This Jerry Judy hamstring situation, those are awful. That's an awful way to start the year because your chance of re-aggravating is always so high.

Greg Dulcich was a very sought-after, a favorite late-round sleeper at the tight end position. And now with the starters, Adam Troutman has played 24 of 28 snaps with Russ Wilson. Dulcich down at 16. So it's not that it's gone for Dulcich. It's just – Yeah, you have more question marks of like are you going to get enough.

The upside of really being someone who breaks out, he can be useful here and there, but him turning into that week-in, week-out starter where you stole him at the end of the draft, that feels like that upside is gone as well. I still believe it is there. Personally, I think that the way that they're using Dulcich in preseason is more hiding him, but TBD.

I will say that the bad vibes with the injuries, they're good news for Marvin Mims I've been really rising on Marvin Mims realizing that his opportunity at the beginning of the season is basically the wide receiver too but he's going to be out on the field a lot the biggest the biggest problem is that a bet on him is a bet on this putrid offense bet on Russ It's a bet on Russ. It's a bet on Russ. I still don't know. My confidence that Sean Payton can fix Russell Wilson is not that high. I don't know that he can do that. I mean, I think Russ, last year, he had a handful of games

where he had decent fantasy outputs. It was a complete lack of consistency from throw to throw, play to play. You know, the running game, how much Javante do you get? How much Samaje? Like Javante in drafts right now, he's a scary pick because you may have some upside there. You probably do. But, yeah, if the offense is bad, then you don't.

So it's been murky. And then you're competing with the Chiefs and the Chargers, and I'm sorry. This has been a rough road for Bronco fans since the Russ trade. Yeah, so here's a good, if you want, like how we deal with Russell Wilson. Let's talk through something here. Okay. I am in a draft right now.

It is a limited uh it's a super flex draft uh with a lot of great people from the industry a lot of sharp minds in there i'm at the turn and me somehow i snuck in um and i'm at the turn the the the i drafted at the 12 spot we're going into the fourth round i'm'm almost on the clock. And I'm riding dirty in a super flex. I've got no quarterback. 16 quarterbacks already off the board. And I'm sitting here. I'm two picks away.

And Russell Wilson is still there. And I'm like, I don't think I want him. I don't think. I'm trying to decide between Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford. And I've got Cooper Cup. And I think if both are available when I'm on the clock, I think I'm going Stafford. And that just seems crazy.

But, I mean, do you think I should take the value of a dropping Russ and hope that Peyton fixes it? No, probably not. Mike, yes? No, I'd take my stack. Alright, quick break. Back with the news. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make

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to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. All right, we're going to dig into quite a bit of news. All of the cutdowns are happening for these rosters.

Which they are wild now because it's not the stair step down. You have all these players. Okay, this day – We're going to have to go from 93 to 53 and like – I believe that is correct. Something like that. Yeah. News and notes from around the league.

Presented by USAA Insurance. All right. I mentioned it earlier. Kyler onto the reserve PUP to start the season, missing at least four games. They released Colt McCoy. We talked about the quarterback situation. It's gross.

All right, the Seahawks. Rookie wide receiver Jackson Smith and Jigba, who just underwent surgery to repair a small broken bone in his wrist, expected to begin the season on the active roster, so not on the PUP. That does not mean he's playing in week one. That is great news. What it does mean is that they expect him to be back before week four,

and that is very important because, as Mike pointed out, Seattle has a week five bye week. So there's always the fear. It was like, will he be back for week one? I'm not sure. He might not be ready to start the season. Timeline seemed like he wouldn't be. But we were afraid that if it got too close to their

bye week then it would be like well now they're just going to hold him rest him make sure he heals up and we won't see him till week six that's too far to make him still a valuable draft pick for where he's going in drafts but this news says he will probably be back week two or three today is the deadline for the Colts to keep Jonathan on the PUP. Jonathan Taylor. No, just Jonathan. Or trade could happen. Sure.

Because they're either going to put him on the PUP to start the season or they won't, and so there is a chance the trade goes down today. We're recording this very early on Tuesday, so that's the latest on Jonathan Taylor. I don't know what in the world you do with him in drafts right now. Yeah, I mean, hopefully you can just wait a few more hours and figure this out because this is a pretty big deal. If he goes on the PUP, that means that we have a clear

and definitive answer to whether or not the ankle issue is still an issue. And if the ankle issue that should not have been an issue come training camp is still an issue to where you can't play games, I move him significantly down and then um you know if you get a trade eagles dolphins any of those rumored rosters i mean that changes everything for those uh for those teams and people are drafting and then all of a sudden i don't don't know, different players are going to be – different fantasy players are going to be disappointed. Traylon Burke's back to practice.

Okay. That's great. Okay. Dalvin Cook, practicing. He's been a very interesting potential selection in drafts. Like, you see him there, and I haven't pulled the trigger yet, but I've just – there's definitely a spot where I will. Yes, oh, certainly.

Even if I get a strong three or four weeks, five weeks to start the year. That's massive. That's super valuable. And if you ended up like, I don't know, with Jonathan Taylor, and you could get a few good weeks while you wait on Jonathan Taylor's situation to pan out? I don't know. It could be worth it.

One of my favorite tips that we've ever done when we do our top ten shows is making sure you don't just look at the season in totality. Break it down. Look at these little chunks of the season, like the first four to five weeks, then the middle, and getting ready for the closeout, which all of these sections of the fantasy season, they all have a very different preparation that you take for them. And so I love taking Dalvin Cook.

That's a little too hyperbolic. I think that Dalvin Cook is a solid pick where he is going usually in drafts I'm not reaching but I'm letting him fall to me and I think he's a good value right now uh Jason I don't know if you've been sweating a little bit but Mark Andrews hasn't practiced in three straight days but John Harbaugh says he expects him to practice this week and play in the opener well that's good um yeah no i i've been not practicing either yeah i've been very very uh sad at this news obviously i have so much exposure uh to mark andrews and i have encouraged everyone to draft him in the third round and the the only issue that i see with mark andrews truly is just making sure he's on the field so I hate that he's not on the

practice field right now um CJ Stroud officially named starter this is so dumb there are 10 point underdogs against Baltimore in week one you named CJ Stroud the starter when you drafted him with the number two pick in the draft yes everyone knew it sure glad he didn't get all the reps, you know, of first team practice. It's not hard being a quarterback. He didn't look good this preseason relative to some of the other opportunities. Oh, but he had to earn it. How did he earn it? By not looking good.

He did not have to earn it. Just because you say someone has to earn a job. Yes, Jason. If you're going to say Fired! Fired! Fired! Imprisoned! Fired and job yes jason it's your if you're gonna fire fired in prison fired and in jail immediately right to jail that's another one that i think this one upsets me so much more i hate it this one is the other one look competitive advantage there is actually potentially a competitive advantage no there's yes no listen if you're trying to prepare for a mobile quarterback or i didn't Competitive advantage. There is actually potentially a competitive advantage. No, there isn't. Yes, there is.

If you're trying to prepare for a mobile quarterback or a pocket passing quarterback, there is an advantage of saying, I don't know who we're playing. Absolutely. Maybe it's not a significant one. Maybe it doesn't move the needle, whatever. But there is an actual negative and only a negative thing. Yeah, competitive disadvantage. Competitive disadvantage for your team to say,

yeah, I'm not going to let you practice with the starters because of some old curmudgeon-y thought process of like, oh, you've got to earn it. And if you're going to take that curmudgeon-y approach, then make them earn it. You just gave it to them. Yeah, tell the truth. Yeah, tell the truth.

Well, Stroud's going to start, and if I had an opportunity to draft the Baltimore defense for week one, I would jump all over that. I like Stroud. I like him being able to emerge as a quarterback, but it's going to be a rough start. Wandale Robinson activated off the PUP. Jameson Crowder released by the giants

that that's at least some good we've heard nothing about wandale this entire offseason and he was he was like a a waiver wire uh dartling basically last year of it when is it going to happen when's wandale going to be in here be the guy second by the Giants. His tape is he's so shifty. Has his breakout game and then tears his ACL. I believe ACL, yes. I'm not I haven't turned the page on Wandale, but it's just

been an entire offseason not hearing a single thing about him. Yeah, I mean I have more confidence in Slayton, Hodgins. Oh yeah, those are the starters. Miles Gaskin goodbye oh the gas man he has been he ran out released along with albert aguabon offseason darling for a minute last offseason tight end for the broncos will lutz has been traded to those broncos there you go the kicker drama that's been it's been pretty wild yeah i mean the uh chargers just named cameron dicker yeah the starter and let go of dustin hopkins

yeah right i mean with a name like dicker you knew he was gonna win a job you just you just just make him why is that rhymes with kicker obviously yeah yeah and hopkins was traded to the browns which the browns drafted a kicker they drafted a kicker wait well like with their seventh round pick and dunked on people with it wait what six round pick i i honestly don't remember in my head it's a fourth it is it was a, it's a fourth. It is a fourth. It was a fourth. It's a fourth round pick. They drafted a kicker on the fourth, and the guy didn't make the team. Like, what are we doing here? What are we doing here? Even the NFL doesn't draft kickers.

Okay. Okay. That was today's News and Notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Welcome to the Waiver Wire, presented by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube. All right. This year, the Waiver Wire segment, one of the most important each and every week. We're kicking it off early because we want to talk about some trends and some kind of

some strategy. Yeah, some philosophical ways to approach it including an article by uh our very esteemed writer matt de sorbo who went and and looked statistically at unrostered players so players going 13th round or later is what we're calling an unrostered player and those players breaking out early in the season and how you should approach those pickups. Because I think a lot of times, and maybe for good responsibility reasons, people don't jump on their fab budget early. Maybe they want to save it for the rest of the year.

But you should read this article and some of the highlights here unrostered players that break out in week one historically have a higher points per game total the rest of the season you define breakout real quick a breakout we're just saying scored 15 plus points in a half point league so if you get that out of week one and then they become the go-to waiver wire pickup historically speaking those players that have a week one breakout, they are better than players that break out later. So players that pop here and there throughout the year, which those players pop into the waiver wire as well, it's more of a trend indication in week one when that happens.

And that doesn't mean that every week one player that scores a bunch of points is not going to regress horribly that happens all the time we make fun of the ogletree situation from years gone by but they still on average score more than uh players that break out later in the year so just what i what I do with that information personally is I take that information and say, if I have a, if I have a conviction about a player's performance in week one, which is generally not just looking at the box score and saying it's 15 fancy points because they caught two touchdowns. Normally it's looking at the box score and saying, wow, this player played 80% of snaps or this player lined up in this position that I didn't expect, or this quarterback

was going to this guy, or this guy was getting separation that I didn't expect or this quarterback was going to this guy or this guy was getting separation that I didn't see coming he's taking a step forward like he was the goal line back all of those type of all of those type of things that's what you're looking for in week one and you know we're watching every single game every single week so you can come to the waiver wire segment and we can tell you which ones we believe just lucked into touchdowns or whatever, and which ones should be good. But the research shows that when they break out in week one, they are better than when they break out in week two, three, four. That's not to say that the best breakout will always come from week one.

This is just averages over a long period of time. We've seen it. And so week one is really really important that's why a lot of times in the drafting season we talk about grabbing a player at the end of your draft that you're totally fine cutting you're just grabbing someone to say I want to see if he is in this new projected role or not and then if not you cut him because you're going to want to pick up people week one yeah and a good example of that kind of player you know this year might be the paris campbell you know just not knowing what the offensive involvement is take them with your last pick cut them if it's not what you think

it is last year we had a handful of these where week one you kind of learned something new geno smith was out there on waiver wires ended up with a solid year uh jamal williams like yeah uh you know 17 touchdowns he was 46 percent rostered heading into the year last year and ended up being one of those players that if you had believed early it paid off in a big way uh garrett wilson was 60 percent rostered after week one last year so that that was one that flipped the other direction evan ingram not rostered heavily in week one so you want to pay attention to more than just the box score but know that historically taking a shot on some of these

players early it pays off and uh my you know my example from the past was in 2018 and if you've been listening to this show long enough you know a kiddo you know what a kiddle means and i dropped a kiddle on george kill that was equal to 44 fab dollars that is aggressive very aggressive and this was after um he had nine targets in week one he flopped in week two and was not good two catches 22 yards and people dropped him and victory left the fact that he was terrible and then he finishes the tight end three on 136 targets with over 1377 yards and i spent heavy because my mindset in that moment was yes there is a chance this doesn't work out but the value to my roster after seeing George Kittle's involvement on the team in a couple weeks was that the value is so immense.

Like I could not acquire this any other way. And so it was worth the 44, and thankfully that one worked out. Yeah. For me, the example that came to mind from kind of a week one, you saw how a player was being used, was Naeem Hines in 2020. Sure. He came out week one and was the running back five, scored 23 fantasy points, and that was kind of out of nowhere.

No one was like drafting Naeem Hines, expecting him to be great. I believe he was on my roster, Jason. Well, I mean, experts, sure. But he was available, and he finished the season as the running back 20. It was a bumpy ride. It wasn't super consistent but what you saw in week one eight targets that was he was super involved in the passing game he played the majority of snaps and you go okay this this is going to be someone who's relevant for fantasy this season he might not be a superstar but he will absolutely be relevant and and, finish the season as the running back 20.

You've got to go after those guys when the utilization is right. And the player I wanted to bring up is – he's a combo platter for us because it is Alfred Morris of the Washington Manders. Yes. Because he was both the number one pickup after week one because I think he was like the running back five. But if you were locked in, like you didn't just do your draft, look at your team, smile at what you have accomplished,

log out and say, well, I'm ready for week one. If you kept locked in, all of a sudden the news right before the season went, oh, Alfred Morris is going to be the starting running back for Washington. You didn't know if he was going to be good, but it was the fact that it was such a late piece of information of, this is a starting running back who is on your waiver wire. No one knew who he was until that week or so before the season started. So some people did pick him up right before right before week one even started it paid off uh it paid off huge and i mean 1600 yards 13 touchdowns later i mean he was

like he was the steal of that season yeah and if you pick up somebody early that you do believe and you do add a trade chip to your team and or you have the ability to trade other players on your team because you've added depth so there is a flexibility right you get you get the maximum amount of possible output for your team because you didn't wait uh if you hit early because you've got all of your maximum amount of weeks that you could play that player um you've got a trade chip immediately and this is not saying go all in i mean it goes players overreact as well but if you have the conviction about the opportunity combined with the performance just know that historically those players that do

break out early have the longest sustained opportunity and every week we do we cover the waiver wire uh gyms uh each and every week players that we're picking up we have waiver wire rankings on the website now where we put them in order every week so that you get a guidance a guide to what to do and next week we're going to talk about some undrafted gyms those are kind of like what mike is describing in alfred morris where it's like you might be done with your draft and there's someone better than who you picked at the end we'll bring up some names next week so that you can pick them up before week one yeah stay locked in and I that just reminded me because he wasn't a week one

pickup but it was I looked at the end of my my bench a just a handful of years ago it's like you know what I think all this buzz on darren waller it seems like it's turning into something so i dropped my last pick or if you're in a league this i don't think that we've talked about this strategy piece if your league doesn't force you to draft a kicker or a defense i usually don't like yeah i it's it's not as helpful now that we don't have all four weeks of the preseason but having a having two late round guys just stashed just waiting these last couple weeks of news uh and see if someone gets an upgrade like things do happen so it's nice to have an extra couple chances but yeah Darren Waller right before week one picked him up you're like wow this is

like this is a league changing pickup and the and the year hasn't even started yeah so for to give an example of what Mike's talking about if you don't have to draft the defense or kicker instead of grabbing your kicker in the last round that you don't really care about you could pick up like a Kareem Hunt and just wait yeah sure ends up getting a job and obviously if he doesn't get a job yeah or four net uh you know just someone that their tides could change really quickly overnight um and then obviously if they don't get a job when it's coming close to week one then just cut them and pick up a kicker yeah or deon jackson yeah who might be the starting running back for the colts and no one talks about it but right um and this is not to say you don't play a kicker in defense.

You're just holding these players and then making decisions on your roster and signing a kicker in defense right before week one. Exactly. All right, thanks again to our sponsor, NFL Sunday Ticket, on YouTube and YouTube TV with NFL Sunday Ticket. It's never been easier to keep up with all of your fantasy players. For $50 off your subscription, sign up at youtube.com slash fantasy footballers, which I am proud to say we have nine televisions set up.

Yep. For week one. And I cannot wait. We're ready. We're ready. Let's get into a couple of mailbag questions. Mailbag. Mailbag.

Ooh. Voice still isn't there. Yeah, well. I did my best. You did okay. If you have a question for the show, you can go to the website, the fantasyfootballers.com. Click the submit a question button.

You can dial the voicemail hotline, three zero two four six four TFFB. You can also join our free discord channel, which will give you the ability to chat with thousands of like-minded fantasy football players, listening to the show and get advice that way as well. Our first question comes from dylan in san francisco what are some light-hearted punishments for last place that can also be done in a league with members in different states hmm so the first thing that came to mind you would you would need someone else to go with because you need someone to document it and of course it's way more fun if everyone can be in person but you can still

document it seeing a good bit of it this year is forcing someone to go to like a fancy restaurant with a big stuffy as their date and they just have to endure that whole dinner with a giant teddy bear or whatever. I did see that. Across from them. I thought that sounds like a delightful, lighthearted punishment. I just shared with Jason there was a punishment where a gentleman had to go to a kind of like a public area and earn $20 in tips. Oh, yeah, playing like the recorder or something.

$20 in tips to be released playing the recorder as a fantasy football punishment as well. We do the in-person draft, so we force the last place player. They end up spinning the wheel of water and get 12 cups of water poured on them in embarrassing ways, and then they draft soaking wet in a sweater. In a turtleneck sweater in a turtleneck sweater um which uh from what i've observed is an unpleasant experience mike you've had to do that i have and how was it it was in fact unpleasant okay will in syracuse which running back would you prefer to draft in the second round, Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs? It's a 12-team full PPR, and that does change the pick for me.

It does. It does for me as well. So that means we're all Josh Jacobs. But let's talk half PPR. That's the format we usually play in. That's much closer. Who would you take, Josh Jacobs or Derrick Henry, in a half PPR? In in that event it's not a wide margin but i would go derrick henry i have derrick henry and a half ppr one spot higher right now and um yeah it might

come down to how the wind is blowing yes that day what are your vibes that day honestly that that's going to end up a second round pick right uh but probably yeah or late first the second round pick so i am probably one of those players on the back half of the first round and i might pick based on my first pick i mean if i'm being completely honest that may change it a little bit so what would change it? Obviously, if you drafted Devontae Adams, then you would want to go Henry. Sure. Yeah, so I feel like Henry is slightly more risky this year with the age. And so if I felt really stable in the first round with my selection,

maybe that changes the equation a little bit. I've got Josh Jacobs one spot ahead, so either half PPR or full ppr i'm going to take josh jacobs over derrick henry i don't blame anyone for going the opposite and obviously in a full standard league where pass catching isn't involved i think we all swing to the derrick henry side i i like this question from colby here because this happens in leagues all the time colby in in Vancouver says, hey, guys, simply put, is Jameer Gibbs too expensive for the first round? I know my league, and that's my only chance. Whoa.

And the thing I like about this question is the fact that you like Jameer Gibbs and you want him, but you know he's going to be overpaid for it. So this is an emotional decision for you because you wanted the chance to draft him, but your league is overvaluing him relative to the other players. And so in a league like that, you legitimately cannot draft them at an appropriate value. And what the right thing to do is,

what the unemotional thing to do is, is wave Bon Voyage to Jameer Gibbs and say, you're not an option for me this year because what you represent instead of a player for my team is a player that will be drafted to push other players down the draft to me. Yeah, I mean, there is a limit. I mean, Jameer Gibbs is very good. He's one of Andy's my guys.

We like him a lot. But that doesn't mean that we're going to take him over Nick Chubb or someone like that that just we have so much more data. He's going to get so much more work. Yeah, more opportunity. We have a history. It's like there is a place where you just go and you get your guy, but it's all about the opportunity cost of what you're giving up.

And if you're talking about first-round options, first-round running backs, there's just better players than Gibbs. And so, you know, you can grab them. You can have fun. But I think you're going to have the most fun when you get a W and then another W and another W. That's my recommendation. All right, last one here.

Mitch in New Jersey. Yo, yo, yo, ballers. Yo, yo, yo, ballers. Yo, yo, yo, yo. Is there any concern that Isaiah Likely, with the second-year leap projected, expected, is there any chance that he reduces Mark Andrews' expected production? I think it's a good question to ask. I mean, anytime you have talent on the roster,

there's really only one area that I would have slight concern about Isaiah like Leon. And that would be the fact that he is a capable, large pass catcher near the goal line, because he is a good player. I think he is going to take a step forward. And I love it. If my pass catching tight end is all alone. I mean, if, if you have more options around the goal line, maybe it represents, I don't know, two touchdowns Mark Andrews doesn't end up with over the year. I don't really personally view it as more than that. Yeah, I don't either.

And then it's, yes, likely is an emerging player, but how much will he actually be on the field if they are actually running 11 personnel, which the one and the one means there's going to be one tight end out there. And that one tight end is going to be Mark Andrews for the foreseeable future. So I like Isaiah Likely. He's a very interesting player, but I don't think it's his time yet. I will say this. If Mark Andrews does miss time, but I don't think it's his time yet. I will say this.

If Mark Andrews does miss time, if he doesn't get back with whatever's going on, if I've got him, if that's the draft I've done, I'll cut whoever my last pick is and pick up Likely, and I'll start him week one because he is a talented player if you're not familiar with him. Yeah, you were saying kind of where I was headed, which is that if Andrews ever went down during the year, Likely would be highly competed for on the waiver wire because he is a capable pass catcher.

And we saw that. He had some good games last year when Mark Andrews missed time. So, all right, that is going to do it for today's episode. We have a fantasy time machine and a fantasy MVP episode coming this week. Please check out the Ultimate Draft Kit at ultimatedraftkit.com. Get ready for your drafts. This is another big draft weekend coming up, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Labor Day.

That's when our League of Record draft is going to be a very, very fun week. And maybe we'll get some resolution to the Jonathan Taylor situation. Maybe you'll know a resolution by the time you're listening to this. Maybe. We'll comment on it tomorrow. All right, thanks for tuning in. Thanks for listening and supporting the show. We'll be back with you tomorrow.

We will. Goodbye. Bye-bye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.