Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Mid-Round Madness + Fraud Offenses - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/2

Episode Date: August 2, 2024

Value picks and "fraud" NFL offenses for 2024 fantasy football! On today’s podcast, a handful of players with ADPs that don’t make sense! Plus, offenses that could be a trap for fantasy football managers. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for August 2nd, 2024. 2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Check out today's sponsors: News & Notes presented by USAA. Visit https://www.USAA.com/Insurance Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Conditions apply. Scotiabank, you're richer than you think. Before we start today's show, I have a very special invitation for all of you out there. We want to see you live in Los Angeles at the Palace Theater on August 24th for our 10th anniversary Megalashow. This is going to be your chance to come be a part of a live podcast episode presented by our friends at Sleeper. And it is going to be, dare I say, a great time. It's going to be fantastic, friends, fun. And we're also working with a partnership with Pristine Auction and Fantasy Cares. There's going to be some giveaways at the show.

We're going to be throwing out some signed jerseys, and there will be a grand prize giveaway live at the Megalus show. Must be present to win a Cooper Cup signed helmet and a signed jersey. And you can get tickets right now at ballerslive.com. They will sell out. This is coming up very, very, very soon, and we genuinely thank you. We want to see you. We want to give you that fist bump, answer your questions,

and have a crazy time. Ballerslive.com. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers back with you. Jason Moore, Mike Wright, Andy Holloway. It's Friday.

I was... You were holding it back? No, I was actually typing to Al. See if he could throw that Friday drop on my to see if he could throw that drop on my board. Do we still have that drop? Of course we do. Welcome in. A very extensive library. Nothing falls through the cracks. Yeah, we are back to five shows a week,

which is why we're here on this fine Friday morning, August 2nd. Fantasy football is, well, it's here. We're reaching the preseason. And, you know, you hold your breath for the injury reports this time of year. You want everything to go well. And, look, I don't know how to tell you this, Jay, but I'm going to win another championship this year. Oh, that's awesome.

I assume that's some home league you're in I'm not in? It's actually a league of record, and it's not about you so much. It's just you'll be one of 11 other people to not win it. Interesting. So you'll have a bunch of people to kind of commiserate with. Well, that is what happens in every league. It is. Most people don't win, and one does.

There we go. I knew it was there somewhere. Al dug it out of the archives. Thank you, Al. Put it back in the box. Wheel it away. Al's not going to be at the live show, right? Oh, he'll be there.

The whole crew's coming. Everybody's going to be there, so that'll right? We're not. Oh, he'll be there. The whole crew's coming. Everybody's going to be there, so that'll be fun. What else do we got going on today? We have a pretty entertaining quick question, I think, talking about fraudulent offenses and making our predictions on the offenses that people are counting on. They might go south. And then it's a mid-round madness episode.

So we'll be mentioning a couple names, each of us, a couple names that we think are values in the middle rounds. And if you hit on one, like if you really hit on one of those middle round players, that can make such a difference for your team. Absolutely. The Ultimate Draft Kit,

available right now at ultimatedraftkit.com. If you want to go jump in, it is August, so don't be a fool and, uh, fall behind when you get ready for your draft ultimate draft kit.com for that. You can follow us on X at the FF ballers, and we are updating our timeline with lots of articles and information and news and breaking news and videos and things like that over on X. I think that about covers it. You guys want to jump into the quick question?

Yep. Yes, sir. Well, Danny Walsh. Good old Danny. Old Dan Walsh. Oh, we call him Dan Walsh. He goes by Danny on IG. Mom calls him Daniel.

Yeah. Yeah, that's how he was born who is your fraudulent offense of the year so this is a you know it's kind of a scary prediction it's a scary prediction

to make it happens every year there's teams that let you down I mean I remember the Cleveland Browns with OBJ and Jarvis Landry and Baker coming off his rookie season and all the hype going into the year and Njoku, and they let people down. They sure did.

And teams like the Patriots this year can't really let you down. So when you're talking about a fraudulent offense, it's one that has to look good right now, has to have pieces that are important for fantasy that are maybe overdrafted, and it's not going to work out as well as maybe we hope. Yeah. Look, I can go first because you brought up the Cleveland Browns. That was a team led by Baker Mayfield,

and the team that I want to highlight, they are led by Baker Mayfield. It is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think that there is a a true regression coming for this team they've had uh you know some turnover it feels at this moment like Dave Canales is a magic man as we have seen him two years in a row uh resurrect the careers for two separate quarterbacks and some offenses. He is now gone from Tampa Bay. It's not that I think that Tampa Bay is going to completely fall on its face. I just think that Baker really overproduced last year.

He struggled immensely against Mann. In fact, he averaged 33 passing yards per game versus man. And now the league has a whole year of tape to kind of study the tendencies of what was going on down there. Where did Baker struggle? I think that will absolutely factor in the inefficiencies of Rashad White. They kept getting away with those things last year. I think there's just, there's too much against Baker. And this is not a, I'm not drafting Mike Evans, or I'm not willing to take a chance on Chris Goblin. I just think that they will.

I don't think you're going to get Mike Evans that you saw last year where it was, what was he, 13? 13 receiving touchdowns up from six the year before. I think that Evans can still be an 8 to 10 range, but where he was the top five guy, and Baker was this streaming darling in certain situations, I think that that is going to be harder this year. Very logical, Mike, unfortunately.

Very logical, probably very true. That team is – I think they did more for fantasy than they did make their mark as a top tier offense and so you know evans evans was great in part because of how late you had to draft him too now you're gonna have to pay up and bank on it jason what's the uh the offense you want to throw out there yeah the offense that you know when we're looking at these for me and i'm trying to predict how could it go wrong it's usually kind of like what mike just did it's looking at a quarterback that maybe isn't as great as touted. And so for me, that's the Jacksonville Jaguars. I'm still not convinced that Trevor Lawrence is worth the money he just received. He is a fine NFL quarterback.

He's not a bad NFL quarterback, but I don't believe he's a superstar and losing Calvin Ridley and replacing him with Brian Thomas, a rookie, um, Gabe Davis, you know, who is in his own right, not been very fit, very, very good at cardio and running super good at running routes. Um, you know, this is a team that struggled down the stretch last year. If you remember, they started out, they were on pace for the number one seed and get that playoff bye week, and then they completely collapsed down the stretch, lost, what was it, like six of their last seven games. I feel like their offense got a little bit figured out. Their run game became inefficient.

And so if things start to go poorly, if they were figured out. Their run game became inefficient. And so if this, if things start to go poorly, if they were figured out at the end of last year and it continues into this season, I don't know that, you know, I don't see this offense taking a step forward. So at best it's going to be neutral. And I can see a world where this offense just struggles. You know, Trevor Lawrence is a first read type of thrower. You knowua had a faster time to throw and a higher first read target percentage rate. This is kind of like a scripted, here's what you're going to do, and if the defense figures it out, obviously it works for Tua pretty well. If Tyreek Hill were on my team, I would have a lot of first read targets. Yeah, where is he? Go to him.

So I just see how it could go poorly if um if some of these wide receivers that they're banking on don't step up then i think it could be in store for a disappointed so you said jacksonville um fraud might be too strong a word for my pick for this uh quick question but yours is sizzling. I think let down. Like a fresh plate of fajitas. I think let down is the right word for it. It's Buffalo. Thank you, Mike.

Very good sound effect. Look, a lot has been made of whether Stefan Diggs has lost it, but the conversation with Buffalo has nothing to do with what stage of Stefan Diggs' career he is in. The conversation with Buffalo has nothing to do with what stage of Stephon Diggs' career he is in. The conversation with Buffalo is can you take Jefferson off of Minnesota and have the same production from Cousins? Can you take Amon Ra away from Goff and have the same production? There's only one quarterback.

I mean, can you take Chase away from Burrow and expect the same kind of production on offense? No. No, and what made Buffalo prolific was the fact they had an alpha in the offense you talk about wide receivers with jacksonville right now we're sitting here with keon coleman curtis samuel and kalir shakir those are not foundational pieces of a wide receiver room those are wide receiver two threes that you know patrick mahomes could figure out how to make sure it works he's the one we've seen lose tyree Hill and still figure it out. But we're expecting Dalton Kincaid to take a step up,

whereas Kelsey, when he lost Tyreek, Kelsey was already the GOAT. Right. And Buffalo, their identity changed over the back half of the year. Yes, they won some games, but yes, there were some flaws, and Joe Brady offenses get figured out over time. They went from third in turnover rate to 15th under Brady. The more pressure you put on Josh Allen, which is going to be a natural byproduct of taking away an alpha from this roster, there's not always a guaranteed great outcome. And so, you know, weeks 11 through 18 with Brady, they were 31st in pass rate.

Teams adjust, and then they get adjusted too, and then you have to adjust again, right? Like this is what's happened time and time again for New England when they had Brady and for Kansas City with Mahomes. The question will be can Josh Allen adjust well enough under the pressure when they start locking down James Cook a little bit out of the backfield? Like there's a big difference between a mid-season transition that kind of works out and prolific fantasy numbers. So I think the Buffalo offense as a whole might not have as many players to deliver for you. I've started hesitating a little bit with even how high I

have Dalton Kincaid ranked because the team has come out and once again put their emotional backing behind Dawson Knox, and it just puts a little fear in you. There is not a Dawson Knox competing for Travis Kelsey and Sam Laporta and Mark Andrews and George Kittle's targets or opportunities on the field. I just have some hesitation with Buffalo. It's why I went out and I put my money where my mouth was. I traded Josh Allen away in a dynasty league where he has been dominant. I could totally pay the price for that.

I hope you do. It was the time to cash in and get a player like Kyler in a first-round pick. I just have question marks around Buffalo. You get to the end of this year and you know we don't know which one of these wide receivers is going to make the biggest mark and not knowing it now means that you know Josh Allen's gonna have to figure it out too yeah that obviously with the change in their offensive philosophy at the end of the year

which is not usually good for fantasy and the the loss of their clear-cut wide receiver one for this team, there are definitely yellow flags to overcome. I think most people, and I'm with most people, believe Josh Allen can figure it out and will figure it out. So that's really what it comes down to is how good is Josh Allen? That's it. And I think he's pretty darn good. Yeah, and I think it's okay to carve him out a little bit

because we know he can get the production even if the team isn't a top five offense. Josh Allen can still be the number one quarterback. We know that to be true. But if the offense struggles a little bit, maybe you don't get as much ceiling, maybe you get a down game here or there, and maybe you can't predict who else to start in the offense.

Although I know James Cook should have every opportunity to really have a breakout campaign. He's still got to get it done. And their identity from the end of last year, it has to work. Going into this year and not be adjusted to. I am very excited to watch Buffalo. It's like, wow, we heap the praise. Oh, Patrick Mahomes figures it out. And, yeah, football-wise, wow, we heap the praise. Oh, Patrick Mahomes figures it out.

And yeah, they, I mean, football-wise, yeah, they figured it out. But fantasy-wise, the second half of the year, they did not figure it out. Nor was Mahomes good for fantasy in that stretch. That's what I'm saying. Yeah, the team, the Kansas City Chiefs, but we're not playing NFL football. We're playing fantasy football. So those doubts have started to just kind of creep into the back of my head of is, like Josh Allen's still my number one quarterback for redraft,

but there's that instead of it being a full 100% conviction, of course we're going to go with this. It's if there's really no number one, if no one makes the jump to be their go-to guy, which we're going to talk to Don Kincaid here in a second, if no one makes that jump, does Josh Allen figure it out? We talked about him a little bit at length, Josh Allen, in this week's Dynasty podcast of if a pretty easy comp for Josh Allen's career is Cam Newton. They're both big, strong, Superman-type players, and this is when Cam Newton disappeared. Now, I don't think Josh Allen's going to disappear the way that Cam Newton has because of injuries. Cam Newton got way, way more hurt than Josh Allen has been thus far in his

career. So maybe that took the toll, but I just saw Josh Allen talking to Kay Adams about running the ball and it was, you know, hinted out of maybe I need to do that a little bit less. He's still going to run, but it's just, if he's thinking about that more and more and no one is taking the leap out there, is he the locked-in number one guy? It's just a weird math equation to figure out when Josh Allen has had four straight years of 4,500, 4,400, 4,200, 4,300 yards passing. Yes, exactly. And even if you just take a big 1,100-yard basket

and throw it to Dalton Kincaid, and then you say, well, where's the other 3,000 yards going? Where's the other 3,300 yards going? And then hilariously, not by much, he's throwing a ton of touchdowns, but they have gone down four straight years. So it's just in the back of my head saying, hey, Khalil Shakir, does he profile as a one? Is Coleman going to do it as a rookie?

You know, Curtis Samuel, we've seen enough Curtis Samuel to know that he will be helpful. Probably not fundamental. Yeah, I think that's fair. We might disagree on this, but here in a little while we're going to talk about Dalton Cacato, who I think will emerge

as the clear number one receiver for this team. They might need him for all 4,300 yards, so that in a little while we're going to talk about Dalton Cacato, who I think will emerge as the clear number one receiver for this team. They might need him for all 4,300 yards, so that's a good point. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. Alright, we're jumping into the news, and we do have

the Ducers here over there in Ducers Alley. Putting the deuce in Ducer's Alley over there. Falcon. But we got everybody in the building today. Falcon dump. Did we enjoy the Hall of Fame game, everybody? Can I get some nods over there? What?

It's a big. Oh, that's a big yawn from Josh. Oh, Josh yawns. Josh the Axor. What is happening back there? That's pretty good. Pretty good. No, we had-

Get your SAG card? What's going on? We didn't get a football time yesterday for good reason. We couldn't. You're reserving it. Yeah. But we are underway in the preseason, and we got some preseason news yesterday.

Justin Herbert week-to-week with a plantar fascia injury. Uh-oh. I've been about year to year on that same injury. Doctors have recommended two weeks in a boot followed by a graduated return to playing with the expectation he'll be ready for the start of the season.

Does he get like a diploma when it comes time to play? Yeah, you like that? I told that joke in my head. I don't know if I even. He graduated, returned. Yeah, no. I'm sorry.

Even I held that one back. Jesus, swish. The Ladd-McConkie hype train has been building steam, picking up steam. But Herbert missed time last year. Here's Herbert with another injury. Is this just kind of like a pause and wait and see and hope and pray? Yeah, I mean, it's certainly not good news. It raises the risk rating of Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkie

and the whole offense. That being said, the expectation is he should be ready for the regular season. So it's better now than if it was three weeks from now, then it would be a real problem. When I'm looking at my drafts, like we're going to talk about Ladd here in a little bit, I'm still in on Ladd until if we hear that there's a setback or something happening that will cause actual on-the-field problems.

I will, however, adjust herbert a little bit you know to account for risk yeah he's in a range right now late in drafts where sometimes i've i've snagged him and hopes that he has a monstrous season but if he's dealing with you know a nagging plantar fascia injury i'm worried about his fococaccia. Focaccia. Ooh, delicious. That sounds so good. One of the reasons we have... A little olive oil on that. Yeah. Is that the remedy? Yeah, I think you just rub some more olive oil in it, you'll be fine, Justin. Get back out there.

I have not tried that. We have risk ratings in the UDK for a reason and I've adjusted mine a little bit just because you know, Herbert, like if I told you Herbert was going to miss two games, he's off the board. There's other quarterbacks to make a decision on. Because, you know, Herbert, like if I told you Herbert was going to miss two games, he's off the board. Right. There's other quarterbacks to make a decision on.

And my hope for Herbert, look, he's an awesome player, but my hope with this Greg Roman Harbaugh offense is that they are going to unleash his wheels a little bit more. He is mobile. He is very able to put that focaccia on the field, show you how delicious it is, but if that hampers the running game for him,

the mobility, it makes me a little sad. Josh Jacobs didn't practice. He's dealt with a couple of off-season soft tissue issues. He's fat Thor with the groin injury now and missed the first week of OTAs with a hamstring injury. Is he?

Is the website updated? Groinindex.com. I'm checking it right now. One of the more illustrious websites. The first. Okay. The first edition to groinindex.com. In 2024?

Yeah. The groin. There'll be more. That is the quote from Josh Jacobs jacobs i do have a question i got a question for our resident packer fan over there because not only did josh jacobs miss practice but they announced some white alternative helmets for the packers did you see those no i'm gonna go look right now i uh i sent them to you al i think they look good so i wanted to get your official out of 10 rating for that alternate uniform.

So have you found them? Not yet. Okay. Well. Cheap looking. Guess I should have tagged you in those. But Mike, you saw them? I did.

They're fire. I thought they looked. Did you like them? I did like them. I don't like the helmet. Those are clean. I feel like it looks. The helmet was the whole thing. Yeah. Well, that's what I'm saying. I don't like them? I did like them. I don't like the helmet. Those are clean. I feel like it looks. The helmet was the whole thing.

Yeah. Well, that's what I'm saying. I don't like it. So when they announced the helmets, you're like, it's the helmets I don't like. It makes their logo look like they're Georgia, the college. Like, that's all I see. Okay. I'm going to go six and a half or seven.

Out of 10? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. It's hard when you change an iconic uniform. Like, the Packers are probably the number one most iconic uniform packers cowboys bears what other teams am i stealing steelers there's a few that like when you change them a little bit like for instance if you make the

steelers into like a bumblebee or something it's a little disruptive. I know you love the Bumblebee. I do love it. I do, too. And that was also a throwback. Yeah, I know. So it's an OG. All right, Joe Mixon also recovering from a minor quadricep injury. Deonta Foreman, we got news that he was released from the hospital after he went to the hospital with a neck injury. That would be Brown's running back, part of the committee mix over there in Cleveland.

I don't think I have any other news. I think that's all I got. So catching you up. If Deonta Foreman wasn't there, if, you know, this, let's say this was long-term or whatever, does that change your view on Ford? Because I know we've had some debate, Mike, and I, you know, think Jerome Ford will be very involved

to start the year a good late round um it value pick it doesn't change like i think i agree with you on the pick i think the pick is fine with jerome ford i think it doesn't change my view of his ceiling like jerome ford had every opportunity every game most of last year and he's he's okay you know that's my view sure i mean i it's not like when kareem hunt wasn't there before they brought him back that jerome ford was like top five top ten back or something i i just think he's got a cap that's all yeah well he he does he's not an elite superstar athlete um by the way you see tarik co Shout out to. Yeah. That's not in the news. The dinosaur hunter. The dinosaur hunter has retired.

Yeah. And he tried to come back. He's only 29, but the major, major. But he's 209, and that was the problem. Oh, yeah. Literally the problem. He did. Literally the problem.

He says he was up at like 207, 208, 209. We're talking to LBs. He was playing at 188 when he was this, you know. Quote, I let myself get fat. Yeah, so. That's a quote. Been there. It happens to the best of us, bro.

That was today's News and Notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. We'll take a break, come back with some Mid-Round Madness. All right. Value picks in the middle rounds. I've got two names I'm going to throw out. I want to get your guys' feedback. I want you to press me on these guys, and we'll do some ADP this or that with these names because right now, the word out of Dallas has got me. I was already pretty firmly on the Ezekiel Elliott side

of the backfield rotation, and then now with talk of Royce Freeman being the number two and Rico Dowdle battling it out with Malik Davis and all the other names seem firmly behind him. So Zeke is the first name. Zeke is a 10th round draft pick right now. And this is a top five offense. So Zeke is one name. The other one is an eighth round pick.

Also had some camp buzz to kind of be the exclamation point on the end of last season when he was a league winner for my team and many others. And that would be the tight end 10 off the board right now in the eighth round, David Njoku of the Cleveland Browns. So those two names, I think, are players that I will be targeting. We've got a League of Record team, or I do, where it traded a lot of early picks away. So I'm looking for diamonds in the rough, right? There are situations like that out there where you're really needing to not take a big chance but get some more guaranteed production. I think both of these guys are values at their ADP. I'll jump in here. I'm in on the Zeke pick as well.

It is super nasty. This is a stinky, stinky pick. It doesn't feel good. When we're looking at running backs in the double digits, if you can attach that to a team that projects to be a really good offense, that should be an edge that you're looking for, and the Cowboys would project to be at least a top 10 offense. To me, they're a top 10 offense if things go wrong. So I'm in on Zeke.

The situation behind him is it's so murky. We went literally one day, the report was Royce Freeman, who recently, like, he's brand new to the team just a couple months ago. Royce Freeman sounds like he could be positioned to be the backup, the number two on this team, while Dowdle and Davis battle it out for the next. And then the very next day, you had a Cowboys beat reporter come out and say, it's not a question.

Rico Dowdle, once the pads went on, Rico Dowdle is the best running back on the team right now. He also followed up with, I don't think that they turned him into the RB1. He's just giving his observation of the guy's talent. 26-year-old. Yeah, what I'm looking at

right now, Dowdle's the best. So it is a mess. Hopefully we get the backup situation figured out. But in the meantime, Zeke will be the number one guy. He is nothing remotely close to the elite fantasy football Zeke that we all loved and drafted years over years. However, with opportunity in front of him, he's shown he can still take that.

Like last year from weeks 13 on, he was getting 21 opportunities a game. He was the RB9 in that stretch because volume is the king at the running back position. And that was the ability was availability of, I can handle this. And I think that Zeke can still handle it. It's just how well will he actually produce with that

at a 10th round draft price to me. It doesn't matter. He can easily pop up into being a top 24 running back. Yeah, I mean, it is kind of gross, but he shouldn't be as low as he is in ADP. Not with the offense he's attached to. And the opportunities he's going to get at the end of the year, when they got down into the red zone, the Cowboys threw the ball. They threw it and threw it and threw it when they got down near the end zone.

And they did that at the end of the year because they failed at the beginning of the year. Tony Pollard was given so many opportunities. Well, if Zeke can still do that one thing and score those touchdowns down near that, that's what they're going to start the season trying to do. They're going to try to run it in. That's the better thing to do when you get into the red zone to the five zone. That's where offices usually work a little bit better. This offensive line should be better this year than last year. And if you look at the depth chart around him, Rico Dowdle might be a better running back than him but he's not going to usurp the veteran best friend uh the quintessential cowboy because he's not it's not like he's twice as good as Zeke

and there's just no way to keep Rico Dowdle off the field he's you know he's he'll he'll spell him and if you look at who he's going near in ADP the the four running backs there's a lot in common you got these are the four back to back to back Austin Eckler Nick Chubb Ezekiel Elliott and Gus Edwards and all of them are kind of they're older they have big problems but it's like okay what about the offenses the commander's offense isn't going to be good. We don't expect Nick Chubb is coming off a devastating knee injury and won't be ready to go. Zeke is literally on a top five offense. Yeah, and they were number one in red zone plays per game last year.

So you talk about opportunity. I think the Gus Edwards v. Zeke question is a really good one. Both of them are past their prime as running as running backs go both of them are grinders um both of them pose or position themselves as huge red zone threats like i think that'll be a really tough decision for people to make especially if things sift out depth charge wise for both teams like in practice gus and Dobbins, their first one together, they split first-team reps. It's pretty easy for me because Gus does not usually catch passes.

And Zeke Elliott will. So you're very Zeke on that. I'm easily Zeke on that. So Zeke. I'm not bullish about Zeke. I do think that there is a limit to his ceiling. He won't be on a lot of my rosters. But if I'm, you know, this is another

one of those zero RB type of guys, you know, if you're going seven, eight rounds without getting a running back, and then all of a sudden in the 10th round, you can get a starting fine running back. Like that's, that's a strong total fantasy points at the end of a week build that you can do. If I've got a bunch of running backs ahead of them, I would rather, you know, I'd rather be taking a Jonathan Brooks type that could surprise and have some unknown ceiling because he's really young, talented, explosive player. I think Gus Edwards versus Zeke comes down to, do you think that Gus Edwards will have so many more touchdowns than Ezekiel Elliott? Which, like, that guess not impossible that there's going to be so much volume for the Chargers. And when they get in close, they're going to try and run it in.

Will, can his touchdowns outpace the production of Zeke catching the ball? That's the question you have to ask yourself when debating the two. And I do want to mention for Njoku, I just think that the opportunity for him to continue the breakout is there. I want to put that out there. It should. Because not only did he have one of the most prolific endings of the season where like, you know, that matters. Like it matters to show what you can put on film.

But also like a lot has been made of like his splits are worse with Deshaun Watson. Now Watson wasn't there during that stretch. That's true. But like his Watson splits were like you're still over Watson. Now Watson wasn't there during that stretch. That's true. But like his Watson splits were like, you're still over 600 yards. You're still at five touchdowns. And without him, you were a lot better. But like, if that's your floor, is that you're a plus 600 yard, five touchdown player with the upside that we saw at the end of the year

to take over the league. I just think tight end 10 is kind of floor for Njoku. Where are you guys with him when you look at Bowers going ahead of him or the Goddards in that range? I don't feel like Njoku is getting vaulted to this place where it's just everybody is riding four weeks of last year. Well, there's a player who's going right around David Njoku that I'm going to talk about later that i would take over him the the hardest part for me what david nojoku

is he is a player where it's it should work like this isn't i don't have the conviction of of a full season of of evidence or at least just even even some glimpses of when he was playing with Watson of, oh, yeah, Deshaun Watson, a.k.a. Voldemort, will utilize David Njoku like Joe Flacco did at the end of the season. So because of his age, when the breakout is coming of, like, he's entering year eight, and that was really the first time where you've seen David Njoku dominant for a stretch of time. You've seen plays and games and things like that. Because the dude is, he checks so many boxes of what you want

for a breakout tight end. But because he is in this position of it should work, and I have one more tight end that I'm a little more confident in, I'm probably passing on New Jersey. His target pace was 156 targets. Not the final four weeks. The final 11 weeks, his pace was 156 targets. So you talk about intentionality or listening to the head coach say,

I'm going to get him the football. Well, the thing about that quote with the I'm going to get him the football, which is great to hear from, you know, you want manufactured touches for tight ends. You want a design game plan where you're saying we are trying to get the ball in the hands. But as he did talk, he talked about how, you know, the quarterbacks have different tendencies. As the play goes on, you've just got to, you know, go where you go. And that is a big difference between what we saw with Flacco versus what we saw with Deshaun Watson. And, you know, you can give that longer stretch, but the truth is when Deshaun Watson left,

from week 11 is when he was injured and gone. So 11 through 17, which is seven games, I mean, he was on pace for 167 targets. That's elite wide receiver. He was on pace for 104 receptions. I mean, this was unbelievable usage from Flacco just constantly. You know, if there's pressure, boom.

Outlet, outlet, outlet, outlet. That was probably two other guys, too, in that stretch. Sure. Because Flacco was only a part of it. But you also, like, like, not taking away what Njoku did, but there was only a part of it. And you also, like, not taking away what Njoku did, but there was also a – you could look at that time of the schedule of seeing which teams were struggling against the tight end position.

It was something like – I mean, Andy, you identified – look at David Njoku's schedule. Yes. No, you're right. This should happen. Tight ends, it's a place you can do that with so because that was a part of it as well I mean

it should work it's really hard for me because I know the name you're going to is it part of today's show yes so we'll pivot it's funny today's almost it's a tight end show because we're talking about the who's the value in the middle rounds and you kind of have to pick your tight end poison in the middle rounds often.

Yeah, and ours are later than yours, Jason, but Jake Ferguson is the name. Yes. We can go into Mike's two picks, but that is such a dichotomy of ability. Ferguson was red zone touchdown efficiency. Najoku is athleticism targets. Even with Watson, he's at 100 target pace like you're talking about two totally different types of tight ends going in the exact same spot yes so talk about your two names so i would i would 100 agree with that of that if it works for david no joku like

if it if if watson was on the sideline and went, I didn't realize that guy could do that, I'm going to feature him. Njoku is someone who can make a gigantic leap and legit finish as a top four tight end. I don't know that Jake Ferguson can make that type of a jump, but he was Dak Prescott's second favorite target last year. 102 targets. It was the second most on the team. That's a good number.

He finishes the tight end number eight over 760 yards, and it comes down to just how they utilize him up the seam. He gets moved around a lot. He gets used in the slot a good amount, and then there's just a fact of where Njoku's going into season eight. This is season three for Ferguson, and essentially it's his second year as a starter. His first year it was Dalton Schultz, and Ferguson was barely on the field. So for game action, that was the first time that Ferguson's ever been the focal point,

almost similar to a rookie. And looking at can he get better over that time, I guess you do have technically you have Luke Schoonmaker, who was a second-round pick tight end who was just hurt all of last year. Maybe he somehow gets worked in more. But Jake Ferguson, he led all tight ends in red zone targets. He is an absolute go-to player. Number three in the NFL of all receivers in red zone targets. He is an absolute go-to player. Number three in the NFL of all receivers in red zone targets.

Yeah, so highly utilized where exactly in the green area or the red zone and then turns into the green zone. And he actually underperformed in terms of how many touchdowns he should have scored. He should have scored over seven. Meanwhile, all five of his touchdowns came into the red zone. Where are you guys with Jake Ferguson before I bring up my other name? He is one of the later guys.

I'm fine pulling the trigger on either one of those players. Pick one, Njoku or Ferguson. They're going in the same spot. Same spot. 805. 805. I think I would take Njoku over Ferguson simply because of the extreme athleticism and the hope that he does become a hyper-targeted number two in the offense.

I like both. Both over Bowers? Definitely. Bowers is going ahead of him. Yeah, in some leagues. I mean, you know me. I don't do the rookie tight end. I just don't do it.

And obviously, I'll take an L on Sam Laporta last year. And then I will take no other L's in my life so far. So I'm 99-1. You've been doing this a long time. I'm fine with either of those guys. I think they both have avenues. And I had Ferguson a lot last year. I watched when they – I mean, he is a very, very vital piece

of how they work in the red zone. He should have had so many more touchdowns, and so maybe that's a talent issue and he's just not good enough to come down with those balls. But also he's going into third year, getting better, more acclimated. And, you know, those things just bounce the wrong way some years and bounce the right way other years. He will have opportunity to score touchdowns.

It's ironic because if Zeke does really, really well, if Zeke is a good value, Ferguson won't be. Because both of those guys to me are coming on the backs of touchdowns. It's pretty interesting to see them tied together like that. Right. So it's like do you think their running game is going to work in the red zone or do you think they're going to have to rely on the backs of touchdowns. It's pretty interesting to see them tied together like that. Right. So it's like, do you think their running game is going to work in the red zone, or do you think they're going to have to rely on the pass game in the red zone again? The other name I want to talk about, and he keeps getting talked about on this show

for good reason, and yet his ADP still holds pretty strong in the sixth round at the RB19. It is James Conner of the Arizona Cardinals. Where's he at? Our 602 on sleeper, running back 19. Yes, James Conner has a lot of red flags that we like to avoid of how old he is. He's going into year eight.

Like these are being 29 and going into year eight. These are – that's the age cliff. That's season cliff. But it doesn't – it hasn't mattered yet for James Conner. I think we were scared when he was 27 going into year six. We've been scared every year of James Conner's career. And I want to start the conversation of talking about what is going on with the backups for the Arizona Cardinals. Trey Benson, exciting rookie.

He was my number one rookie running back. I liked him more than Brooks. And they took him in the third round, and yet we still haven't heard. It's still a jumble. They have Michael Carter there. They have Trey Benson there. Amari DiMarcato, the fab dumpster

that is DiMarcato. Oh my gosh. The fab dumpster? Guys, he took all my money last year. He burned all your fab last year. He took all of my fab and I needed him. And he did nothing. He just threw it

in the garbage. His name is still in the garbage. Oh, my gosh. His name is still in the mix. Everything about the backup running back situation is all up in the air, which it points further to. James Conner for this year is solidified. He is the guy. This was his first season of over 1,000 rushing yards,

which is pretty wild because he just keeps getting close and over the final five games of the season he was averaging over 22 fantasy points nearly 24 opportunities 100 rushing yards and one and a half touchdowns in that stretch this is an absolute dominant player over that time and the last two years really we've seen James Conner add on top of that, the Cardinals offense is going to be one of those that takes one of the biggest steps that we've seen from the previous year of a full season of healthy Kyler, an addition of a true number one alpha in Marvin Harrison Jr. James Conner, to me, where he's going in round six is just it's a free top 20 running back to me he is uh with with room to be even higher those five game stretch he would have he would have had 353

attempts they just rode him he's gonna miss a couple games I understand that he was great when Kyler came back was awesome last year this team relies relies on him. He is a leader of the team. When we first were putting together our mid-round madness and who we like in those middle rounds, he really stood out. I just didn't want to pick him as, you know, oh, you're a homer, you're a cardinal, whatever. He is a good pick. He's going to score. He's going to be involved.

And he is an exceptional running back for his age right now. So, Conner or David Montgomery? I would rather have Conner. I think we've talked about this in the past. If I'm relying on this player as a starter, and probably in the sixth round it's going to be important, like at least a flex, then I would rather have Conner. If for some reason I'm loaded at running back, then I still love the upside of an injured Gibbs down the line

that would vault David Montgomery to a league winner. Connor or Jones, Aaron Jones in the middle rounds? That's James Connor by a lot for me. That's Connor for me as well. Swift? Oh, really? DeAndre Swift? It's Connor.

So, yeah, I mean, where he's going it seems seems like a seems like a good value um so my my two mid-round madness guys are Dalton Kincaid and Ladd McConkie so this is a little bit of a of a tight end show because that's where you're you've got to mine the the earth and and find the right tight ends to get I find myself ending a lot of mock drafts with Dalton Kincaid I've said it many times for the offseason. I want one of those top five guys, and I don't want to be the one to pull the trigger first. I don't want to spend the most on Sam Laporta. I'm fine with where Kelsey's going. I love where McBride is going, but when you're in those rounds, you don't always get to dictate who falls to you,

but it seems like Dalton Kincaid continues fall. Uh, Dawson Knox, you brought him up earlier. He's got, you know, he's, he's getting pub. He's getting some juice. He's getting the GM loves them. The GM is going to love everyone on the roster because they drafted them. You don't see the GMs talking too much smack against, uh, players that they drafted. Usually it's, um, the coach, but the wide receiver depth chart that besmirched Buffalo earlier this episode is the reason why Duncan Cade was an awesome prospect. Like I know I was out on him last year because he was a rookie, but he had an awesome for a rookie tight end season. Like one of the, one of the top 10 best. It wasn't great for fantasy because it almost never is. But what he showed on the field was he's he's got it he is

what they drafted him to be which is a sensational pass catching tight end and now they need him and he's tied to Josh Allen not as like most of these most of these guys are the the number two target right like Trey McBride it's great to be the number two target you hope David Njoku you know is the number two target ahead of Jerry Judy because that would be really, really good. There's only a handful of guys that are the number one. The Kelsey, even Laporta's not the number one. There's Kelsey,

there's Andrews, and there's Dalton Kincaid who has a legitimate shot of being the primary target. So in the fifth round as the final tight end of the guys who I could see take that leap forward to becoming a league winner status, I like him there. Yeah, I think Kincaid is, just get a little bit of the hesitation with Dawson Knox because this was a player that like,

if Kincaid had not been surprise drafted by the Bills, Knox would have been receiving the same levels of hype and excitement as Najoku and Ferguson because he broke the franchise record for touchdowns in 2021. They gave him a big bag of money. He had 40, 50-plus receptions in those games. I'm just worried about the occasional disappointment, but Kincaid has the ceiling to be the best tight end in football if that's the way that the team

chooses to funnel the football you know through him so i'm very excited at it it is your choice there is to take the last of the five though yeah his adp is the last of the five great ones that's right and so you're saying that's why i end up with him often because when i'm in the fourth third second rounds there's there are super super duper valuable wide receivers and running backs that I usually can't get Trey McBride, who I want. I don't think he's a bad value where he's going, but it's like, yeah, I just want this running back. I want this wide receiver just so much more. And in the fifth, I go, well, I don't want to go week to week streaming the tight end position this year, and I got a chance. He's four picks behind where Andrews is going.

How big is that gap to you? Between Andrews and Kincaid? To me, if they were... Yeah, that's massive. To me, if they were... There's only four picks in ADP. Yeah, so if they were at the exact same spot, if they were... You know, I'm on the clock. I'm definitely taking Andrews.

Andrews is more proven. We know he's the number one. We know he can do it. He's a touchdown machine. Obviously, injury injury risk but I would I would take him you know the mid-round madness looking I I pretty much was looking in the fifth round Andrews is on the fourth they're close together and I think they're both good values um but yeah I I do end up like I I mean we've seen it we could go back to the mock drafts

it's just over and over and over and over when I am on the clock wherever I am it's him left I don't I've never had the chance to go oh should I do Andrews or Kincaid here when when I get to that round what are you hoping for like like oh yeah I'd like 1400 yards and 12 touchdowns no but like what are you realistically hoping that Dalton Kincaid's improvement is of like last year what was he 589 yards uh yeah he was at uh he had to be higher than that 673 673 sorry um my hope is that he is involved around the end zone that is my hope that that's what's going to move the needle he he will have a ton of targets a ton of receptions and plenty of yards in this offense to be a top tight end. I hope he gets 100 receptions.

I've got him for 90 receptions. That's how I've got him status. We both have him that high. The splits are interesting, though. First, he was a rookie first six weeks with Thawson Knox just under four targets a game. Then he went week 7 through 10 without Knoxson Knox just under four targets a game. Then he went week seven through ten without Knox, goes up to eight targets a game.

Joe Brady took over, right? So we want to project that forward to James Cook, but the targets did go down. The production went down only six fantasy points per game with Brady. So you expect a big step forward, but that's where that slight – I think it's a big four. The Dawsonox splits are very very concerning and legitimate the tough thing with that is that it was the first six

weeks of dalton kincaid's career sure yeah i don't care about those weeks i care about the last ones you you care about the joe brady weeks week 11 through 18 correct yeah i mean that's fair those are the ones i care about because digs wasn't really part of the offense and James Cook was majorly part of the offense and it's the current coordinator and there was no Dawson Knox. Yeah, you talked about it earlier but they were, what, 31st or something in pass rate. Yeah, passing.

Sometimes that's going to happen but you can't always do that. They lost some pieces on defense. They went down the stretch last year and just won a bunch of games. Alright, I want your second name but not yet after this so I mentioned uh oh you did mention him briefly I did mention him briefly Ladd-McConkie I still won it oh yes I look I love Ladd-McConkie I he is um you know when you look at the rookie wide receivers rookie wide receivers are usually over the last you know five six seven years in the new higher

flying NFL more pass happy NFL rookie wide receivers are usually a good bet now maybe it takes a little bit of time to come on yeah so, second half. So ADP-wise, people have totally caught on to this, right? I mean, Marvin Harrison is a one-two turn pick. Malik Neighbors is the highest any rookie wide receiver has ever been picked by ADP other than Marvin Harrison, who's already ahead of him. Ladd McConkie isn't getting that treatment. He was a second-round pick. Keep in mind, this is a team that traded up to get him.

They traded up a couple spots. This was the very very beginning of day two so they went after him ahead of Coleman right like Coleman was on the board for them do not believe I think Coleman was the first pick by backwards that the bills chose Coleman over McCall correct so um but you know you go after day one and you see this all the time right like the first day the NFL draft is over, all the teams go, and they say, who are our targets? Who are we trying to get at the very top of that draft?

They have time to think about it, and they came in to the next day saying we have to get them. They traded up. They got Ladd-McConkie, and all the reports from training camp. You know, you look at a lot of these guys as like, is Coleman running with the ones? Sometimes. Sometimes not. You know, we're not sure if he's going to be a lot of these guys as like, is Coleman running with the ones? Sometimes. Sometimes not.

We're not sure if he's going to be a part of this offense to start his career or not. They're going to work him in there. What role is he playing? He's got to work on the playbook. You've got Brian Thomas. Is Brian Thomas going to be a starter week one, another first-round rookie wide receiver? I don't know. Maybe it's Gabe Davis.

They paid him a lot of money. They bring him in Ladd McConkie from day one from the from the word go he's on the field he is absolutely like every reporter has been saying he's the number one target almost every practice they're saying they're not just using him in the slot they're using him as the z receiver they're moving him around when you match that with the need i mean quentin johnston isn't even right now he might not even be running with the ones maybe we're not running with the twos right um it's all bad they need they need him online and the film and i know he didn't have college production if you're just now coming around

the knock on lad mcconkey is this dude, he shouldn't have been a second round pick. He had no production in college. And it is legitimately very rare for people to be unproductive in college and then dominate with production in the NFL. Like that's just not common. It happens sometimes, but it's an outlier. But the film lad mcconkey was outstanding i remember when we first started scouting we hadn't started the process yet i didn't know the names of a lot of these rookies because you know i'm not a huge college guy as soon as the you know super bowl hits we just college in general we see yeah learning get out of it you like that cafeteria though eh it's quite the joke it's quite the joke to make to the only guy who has a degree in here, right?

Oh, yeah. That is true. I have a degree. Oh, Mike's the only one. I have a college degree. You do? You have a college degree? Do you have a college degree?

Yeah, I do. I thought you dipped early. I dipped early, and then I went back and got it. This uneducated swine is our host? Yeah. College dropout? I just jokes about being dumb, guys. Wait, you have a degree?

Yes, I do. Is this in a bit? No, this is not a bit. I do have a degree, yes. I now regret bringing all that up. Yeah, get bodied. Sorry, go on. He threw the pie and it boomeranged right back into his own face.

Yeah, so it's just one of those things where when we first got when we first got to the scouting process andy just said he's like he just started talking up this oh lad lad mcconkie just watch out he's gonna be a star he's gonna be sensational and in the early days like this was we weren't even talking rookies yet no one one, even the hardest core listener, no one really knew how much Andy loved Ladd McConkie because we weren't talking about rookies yet. He just said he, you know, that was from watching, that wasn't from scouting and watching film. That was from watching the games. That was like you were watching college football or whatever.

And the senior bowl. And the senior bowl. And you're just like, that dude is awesome. And I feel like you've almost forgotten that. Your own opinions of him early on gotten your love you have forgotten your love but my point is this he is a talented rookie wide receiver who's on the field from snap one and will probably be a 75 snap player for a great quarterback and Justin Herbert the opportunity is there and I want to take shots on something like that. So you're going to plantar your flag on him?

Oh, yeah. Look, I had this name in here before the Justin Herbert news. I'm not going to pivot too drastically on this yet, but I don't love this. Kyle sitting here saying, return to your first love, Andrew. I never fell out of love with Ladd-McConkie. I wanted to see how – I believe I said this. I want to see how the offseason progressed with Quentin Johnson and Palmer and Chark and, you know –

Perfectly for Ladd-McConkie. It has. It has. I am returning. I am returning to where I once was. I am with you, Jason. I believe he is – he's just set up to be foundational for the offense. And by the way, Josh Palmer also getting some very positive. Like I think Greg

Roman was talking all about how good Josh Palmer has been. You want to know why? Do you want to know why? Because Josh Palmer is an exceptional wide, too. He is not a wide receiver one. And now they got a wide receiver one. I hate to say it because I love McConkie, but I still don't believe that. Yeah. You don't believe that he's a one. You believe he's a Hunter Renfro slot wide receiver. Yeah. You could throw all the little middle names out there. You can be the Golden Tate.

So you could be like we just brought up or Landry or whatever. Like those names are what I think he'll really be in this league but maybe i'm wrong maybe he'll now uh just because he'll have to because no one else there can do anything absolutely just to remind myself so golden tate was the comp for the fire jayden reed guy yeah okay and this guy could be like a golden tate lad mcconkey yeah i mean i see what I'm doing there. I mean, I see what I did there. That's a college degree right over there. It's up here. You just got psyched. Yeah.

Enjoy your education. The fact that we're already getting reports of McConkie is seeing every position in the wide receiver room, that is humongous to me of to hit a ceiling, you have to play in three wide and you have to play in two wide. So the fact that he's there. He should be really good. Yes. He should be really, really good.

It's just touchdowns, which I think is what, I think that's what you're saying with all those golden tape types, those wide receiver two, fantasy wide receiver two. Keenan. I mean, Keenan's a Hall of Fame level wide receiver, right? Yes. So would we say that Keenan Allen is better than Ladd McConkie? Yes.

So Keenan Allen in that kind of a role has lived most of his career peaking around eight or nine, more of a 12 to 14 finisher. That's pretty good. It's great good it's great it's great yeah it definitely is but it's bit that what cost him was um you know not necessarily being a guy that could get double digit touch ends or something but right keenan is a is a great reason for like lad is very keenan like he's just a great crisp um route runner route runner that great hands he's going to be in the right spot every time defensive reader exactly and so college degree oh wait that is what keenan was and keenan last year was the wide receiver eight in 13 games he's like the wide

receiver three all year until he got injured with justin herbert obviously different system they're going to run the ball more rookie not as good not as good as Keenan Allen, but I do love the similarities for the quarterback. We have five shows next week and throughout the entire NFL season. It is here five days a week, Monday a mock

draft. We'll get into wide receiver rankings early in the week as well, so please join us. Please click that follow button. Also, final reminder, our friends at Sleeper, they're presenting the 2024 10th anniversary Megalith show in Los Angeles. Come hang out with us on August 24th. Ballerslive.com for tickets.

Don't miss it because Jasonace is going to be shooting a lot of stuff into the crowd and you're going to be very happy. Some signed jersey related. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy

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