Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - NFC North Breakdown + Surprise Team Picks - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/20

Episode Date: July 20, 2024

Which NFL team will be the most surprising in 2024? On today’s fantasy football podcast, a preview of the NFC North division! What is Justin Jefferson’s upside without Kirk Cousins? Which Packers ...WR to draft? Get a fantasy football breakdown for the Lions, Packers, Vikings, and Bears! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for July 20th, 2024. Intro - 0:00:00 Surprise Team Picks - 0:05:20 NFC North Divisional Breakdown - 0:16:50 Detroit Lions - 0:18:15 Green Bay Packers - 0:30:40 Minnesota Vikings - 0:43:45 Chicago Bears - 0:50:40 2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,
Starting point is 00:00:19 including a new chance to win cash every minute in the app. Get into the game with Monopoly Double Play at McDonald's. While supplies last, one in five chances to win game piece prizes at outset, chances to win Double Play prizes based on time of code entry, and draw prizes based on number of entries in each draw. See rules in the app. Get a credit card annual fee waiver and earn C-plus points faster with the Scotiabank Ultimate Package and bank more entertainment. Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages. Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
Starting point is 00:01:18 Welcome in. Saturday, July 20th, the Fantasy Footballers. Are you writing down the date, Jason? Yeah, wait. This is how he learns the date. This is the 20th? When the show starts. That's crazy. Where his calendar?
Starting point is 00:01:44 Because that's later than you thought? We're so close. We're so close to August. To everyday shows. To football and drafts. Are you ready for the everyday shows? Like, have you been... I am.
Starting point is 00:01:56 I am totally ready. I did my fasting, and I'm prepped. Okay. Well, I mean, it's coming quick. We've got camp, and then we've got preseason, and then I begin my title defense in our League of Record. I mean, you've got to be looking forward to that. I remember the feeling.
Starting point is 00:02:19 Which, have we talked about our draft? You mean the fact that our League of Record draft is happening the day of kickoff? That's what I'm talking about. We are giving that a go this year. First time ever. Look, scheduling, as you all know, scheduling your draft, an online draft can be extremely difficult. Add in that it's an in-person draft and people are traveling, even harder.
Starting point is 00:02:44 Well, we decided to take it up a notch and say, this is when it's going to be, so everyone figure this out. We decided on the draft last year of we're going to draft that Thursday. I guess when you run the company, we call it a half day, and we're bringing everybody in. We're drafting that day, having the big draft party, and then seeing players that night. It is so exciting.
Starting point is 00:03:12 I'm curious what does it do to strategy because there's going to be people who just – You think they just draft to watch the – Oh, people are going to reach on ADP to get a player in that game. Because we're going to be watching it together as a league. Yep. That will be fun. I'm so pumped for it.
Starting point is 00:03:29 We just need to make sure we get through the draft before the kickoff. I love that Mike's like, oh, we'll do a half day. There ain't no work that day at all. I was trying to save face for the people, Jason. We will have to record a show. It's a holiday. Yeah. I mean, it'll be fun.
Starting point is 00:03:46 It'll be record the show and then work's done. Hey, it's me, Jason. We will have to record a show. It's a holiday. It'll be fun. It'll be record the show and then work's done. Hey, it's me, Al. I've got a solo episode today. I'm hoping for a better year in Dynasty. Is that a good impression, Al? It was spot on. It's better than his other voice. It's me. Hey, guys.
Starting point is 00:04:04 Sorry, Al. We love you. Divisional breakdowns. We're into the NFC today, taking on the NFC North. So that'll be fun. We got a great quick question. I'm excited to talk through. It's a team question, so we'll get to that shortly.
Starting point is 00:04:22 The live show in Los Angeles coming up very soon as well, Jason. Once we hit August, that shortly the live show in los angeles coming up very soon as well jason once we hit august that'll be here before you know it saturday august 24th at palace theater ballers live.com for that and of course the ultimate draft kit available right now dominate your draft prep up get ready you know if you want to overcome all of the tilt and the tilt potential that comes with drafting, which it's real. Everybody's got a great plan. And then, you know, a pick or two in, you start to freak out. Jump into the Ultimate Draft Kit. The best thing you can do there is just kind of learn.
Starting point is 00:05:00 Like, we try to equip you with that tool to make decisions in the context of your league and league format. It's a lot different than it was 20 years ago when everybody played in the exact same league with the exact same type of format, limited scoring options. Everybody plays in nuanced leagues now. now and our job on this show every day and with the ultimate draft kit is to equip you to be able to make contextual decisions for your team which means things like the upside and risk rankings so when you make picks in the first few rounds you are balancing your team out with upside with risk with opportunity with depth and you're drafting based on tiers you're taking based on tiers. You're taking a look and making sure that it's not just like,
Starting point is 00:05:49 oh, this player is ranked three spots ahead of that player, but it's like, oh, this player is basically the same as five players later. Let me go to a different position. It's a good tool if you haven't used it in the past. I mean, we hear every year how much that has helped people. So, yeah, check it out, ultimatedraftkit.com. And just to the customizable settings side, you do import your league settings so that your rankings are specific to your league
Starting point is 00:06:10 and your league context, so it helps you a little bit better. Our quick question of the day is simple. It is which team do you believe will surprise for fantasy football? We are in the middle of the divisional breakdowns. There's a couple teams on today's show I thought about going with. Me too.
Starting point is 00:06:29 But I feel like we're going to talk about those teams, so I pump the brakes. Was that a chicken? That was like one lonely chicken with one breath left. It's dying. But I will go with a team that we've talked about already on the AFC Divisional Breakdown shows. You are a madman.
Starting point is 00:06:54 I'm going to go with Tennessee. That would be surprising. Tennessee is a team that, look, every year, I'm going to repeat myself all offseason, there's a handful of teams that you think are going to be terrible that provide not just medium, but tremendous fantasy football value. Last year, drafting a Houston Texan
Starting point is 00:07:17 was not something anybody wanted to do or tried to do, and there was value top to bottom on that roster, from the wide receiver core that surprised to a rookie quarterback to a tight end to Devin Singletary. This year's C.J. Stroud, according to Andrew Holloway, is Will Levis. Honestly? You heard it here. I don't mind that comp. I don't mind that comp because you've been the one all offseason talking about how C.J. Stroud's numbers weren't mind that comp. I don't mind that comp because you've been the one all offseason
Starting point is 00:07:45 talking about how C.J. Stroud's numbers weren't really that wild. I think those kind of numbers could be put up by Will Levis. You have an offensive coordinator there bringing this Cincy South with a high pass rate over expectation with two running backs that catch the football. When I look at surprise teams for fantasy, the fact that they're going to pivot to a pass-heavy offense with two borderline elite wide receivers,
Starting point is 00:08:11 with Hopkins at this stage in his career, Calvin Ridley, two running backs that can catch the football, Tajay Spears and Tony Pollard, and they're not a bad defense. They're a middle-of-the-pack defense. So I'm not worried about their philosophy being the old-school Vrabel. We're going to try to hit you in the mouth and then run the football down your throat. So to me, yes, I'm going to include Will Levis in that pack of five names that I think Will Levis will be streamed by people this year.
Starting point is 00:08:38 I agree with that. I think he will start to enter the territory of the ancient Jameis Winston days at minimum of like, look, this guy's going to chuck it down the field. And he's got players that are going to beat people down the field. You know, that is – he didn't have Calvin Ridley last year. And, you know, now he's got a full offseason, right? He took over during part of last year. This is a big step in opportunity. No, I actually really like – I love making fun of takes,
Starting point is 00:09:04 but at the same time, it's really smart take. If you look at where ADP is, and we know every year that there are teams like this that are just undervalued offensively, and then they take a step forward. There's a lot of reasons. The Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard change of head coach. Change of offensive coordinator. year two for the quarterback. There are so many of those. Like, those can all be yellow flags.
Starting point is 00:09:30 Like, if this was a really good offense the year before, you could be worried. But they weren't a great offense. And so I like that. Let me throw one more stat out there. Kyle mentioned this, and I'm not predicting Tennessee will win the division, but just to show the kind of turnover in the NFL, since 2015 at least one team drafting inside the top 10 has won their division the same year.
Starting point is 00:09:52 So that's nine straight years of somebody in the top 10 making the jump to first. Yeah, I'm going to go next. Mike, you took the team that I was really close to taking here, but I want to highlight the Chargers. I put it in after you, though. Well, but that's what I'm saying. I was between these two teams, so I obviously already love your take.
Starting point is 00:10:13 For me, it's the Chargers. The Chargers are – maybe it won't surprise you, but it will certainly surprise the average draft position of all these players because they are drafted like they are a bottom five offense right now. There's a lot made of the loss of weapons and a lot made of this is a team that wants to come in and run the ball with Harbaugh and Greg Roman. Ladd McConkie is their first wide receiver, and I'm seeing him being drafted as wide receiver 41.
Starting point is 00:10:44 He is in the eighth round. The eighth round is their first player drafted on sleeper. Gus Edwards is in the tenth round. Justin Herbert is in the tenth round. You're paying nothing. The first player on the Chargers is drafted in the eighth round. That's correct. For a team with almost, what, like a projected ten wins?
Starting point is 00:11:02 I think they are eight and a half. Some platforms have them at 9.5. But, yeah, this is a team that has a good coach. This is a team that has a great quarterback. No one is, you know, despite the lacking of playoff victories, Justin Herbert is a great quarterback. You have also an offensive coordinator here. When I look at history and things that are repeatable,
Starting point is 00:11:25 I like finding an offensive coordinator who has 10 seasons as an OC and 7 of his 10 years have been a top 10 scoring offense. When I look at my team-by-team projections in the UDK, I've got the Chargers as one of the most efficient offenses on a yards-per-play basis because I think this is going to be a hyper efficient team and so this is where I think at the end of the year we're going to look back and be like man Gus Edwards was a 10th round pick Ladd McConkie was an eighth or who that's the hard part for right maybe it's Palmer maybe it's Ladd maybe it's uh huge like if I just gave you one for free to pick from the roster that's the differenti differentiator between Tennessee and the Chargers. The Chargers are probably a better football team.
Starting point is 00:12:08 I think we all would acknowledge that. Tennessee, I can point at four guys and say, those are the four guys that I would take the shot on. I'm not sure who to take the shot on in Los Angeles. Yeah, I mean, for me, my belief in Ladd being the primary target, it's easier. But obviously, I don't think it's bad to take a shot on any of them because you're not paying a lot.
Starting point is 00:12:30 And one of these wide receivers will be a relevant top 36 wide receiver for sure. Take a late round shot at a surprise. Yeah, Palmer, Quentin Johnson. The team is going to be better than how we're currently drafting them in fantasy football. I think you should take Quentin Johnson. I team is going to be better than how we're currently driving them in fantasy football. I think you should take Quentin Johnson. I think that's who you should. I think that should be your deal.
Starting point is 00:12:48 Well, I will take him off of the waiver wire for free. Oh, man. I will pay you a lot to make Quentin Johnson your my guy. A lot. We'll have to talk. I've got a golden ticket here, Andy. I could change your opinion on anything. Okay.
Starting point is 00:13:02 All right. Mike, surprise team for fantasy. It can go either direction, by the way, if you want to pick it. I change your opinion on anything. Okay. All right. Mike, surprise team for fantasy. It can go either direction, by the way, if you want to pick it. I went with a positive one. Okay. It's the Seattle Seahawks. I think that their offense will be better than they are currently being valued like the Chargers,
Starting point is 00:13:17 where they have a higher drafted player in DK Metcalf, who is let me check it real quick. He is going as the wide receiver 23 in the fourth round meanwhile let's see where did DK finish he was the wide receiver 16 last year so in the year where everything was felt like it was terrible for Seattle he was still the wide receiver 16 18 the year before that so they are not being valued that way. And there is a way that you can look at the stats and go,
Starting point is 00:13:53 they just missed. Like Geno Smith's yards per game, passing yards per game, very similar. Ten yards different per game. His adjusted completion percentage, that's when you take out throwaways and things that were the wide receiver's fault. Basically identical to what he had two years ago when he led the league in completion percentage. They were 11th in yards per play, but they dropped from 9th as a scoring offense down to 17th because they were 32nd in time of possession. And they have made huge sweeping changes. More specifically to me, the OC, Jason, which you brought him up.
Starting point is 00:14:30 Ryan Grubb from the University of Washington. Many times. And it's the second year of JSN. They are fascinating to me. We've seen their quarterback be more than competent. We've seen him be very good. DK, maybe not everyone looks at him and says that's a superstar but DK Metcalf is regarded as a very good wide receiver
Starting point is 00:14:54 in the NFL Tyler Lockett had a down year yep they still brought him back right he got a yeah he got a contract he's on my dynasty team so I got him a deal he got a contract. He's on my dynasty team, so I got him a deal. He got a contract extension. It's year number two for the first receiver drafted in the 2022 draft. It's so wild. Who did come into the year injured last year? Yeah, he had the wrist problem. Didn't get a full season. This should be a really high-powered offense, and yet the drafters are not
Starting point is 00:15:25 treating them anything like that. We've been here before with Seattle two years ago. They were one of the most underrated. They were Siberia. They were one of the most underrated groups that benefited fantasy players the most when they took a shot on them.
Starting point is 00:15:41 It's not impossible, which by the way, we did a mock draft episode on thursday you can go back and listen to it kyle the borgogin participated with us tyler lockett was either uh i believe he was the last round of that draft and i and you're seeing him i mean we we're in scotty fish yeah uh which i think we took lockett we did it was like in the 59th round that's what it felt like and so but there's a world where like three weeks into the season, we're all shaking our head going, oh, yeah, Tyler Lockett is just the same type of player.
Starting point is 00:16:12 He had a bad year. And he's still good. And on top of all of those things, like Tennessee has a – I think they have a middle-of-the-road defense. The Chargers, could it be a middle-of-the-road defense? I thinkattle's defense is going to be stinky doo-doo and you get a high powered offense and in a bad defense brother that is where it is at yes uh we do root for bad defenses sorry in fantasy football so 30th and
Starting point is 00:16:40 yards allowed and dead last and first downs allowed. If they want to continue that. Yeah. Please and thank you. Oh, my goodness. Good thoughts, Jay. We will take a break. We'll come back with our divisional breakdown. Please and thank you. No, I believe it was peas.
Starting point is 00:17:04 Oh, yeah. It was real cute. That is what I heard. It was please, but. You said please, I believe it was peas. Oh, yeah. It was real cute. That is what I heard. It was please, but... You said please. I did hear peas. I thought you said peas. Peas and thank you.
Starting point is 00:17:11 I heard peas. I thought it was one of those more household... Al said you said peas. All right. Do we have it unanimous? We'll have to check the tape on that one. Wait. No, hold on.
Starting point is 00:17:20 From my heart, it was please and thank you. You were telling me you believed you didn't say peas? I am saying I attempted to say please. My goal was- You missed a whole letter. Well, I'm going to have to rewind the tape. I genuinely thought this was another one of the more household- Yeah, I did too.
Starting point is 00:17:38 Phrases like his little- No tanks. Set my piggies free or whatever else he's got. All right, let's jump into the divisional breakdowns. Let's get divisional. Welcome to the NFC. We are starting with the NFC North, looking at a very fun division, I think,
Starting point is 00:18:04 to break down with lots of fantasy football players that are going to be relevant this year, taking a look at players heading onto these rosters and leaving rookies, coaches, offensive philosophies, and where we see this division at the end of the season. So, you know, Detroit was the story of last year 12 and 5 green bay at 9 and 8 the emergence of jordan love minnesota went through injury nightmares with jeff jefferson and cousins going down cousins out the door and then chicago you know number one pick in the draft
Starting point is 00:18:39 well that was the traded for pick correct yes uh they they had the opportunity to i mean that's the headline for them as caleb williams arrives justin fields departs and there's a lot of optimism right like the uh i mean spoiler alert for later in the show but coach of the year odds the number one most likely coach of the year right now guns mahs Mahoney? No, it's Matt Eberflus with Chicago. So there's expectations there throughout this division. And we'll start with the talk of the town last year, Detroit, 12-5. They were up by 17 points at halftime in the NFC title game. Yeah, this was – they were right on the cusp of the Super Bowl. Still a hugely successful year.
Starting point is 00:19:27 And I'm just going to tell you right now, like, if this wasn't the division we were covering today, I would have talked about them in that quick question about the team to surprise because I think that Detroit is going to be so unbelievably good this year. So you think they're going to surprise? Because their expectations are sky high for them. I just think, yes, because I think there are opportunities for surprise on this team.
Starting point is 00:19:55 So we have the tight end one. Laporte is number one in ADP, right? Amon Ra is what, like wide receiver five maybe? Gibbs is right around there too. Well, I just think you're going to have upper echelon performances in particular from Gibbs, Goff, and the surprise performance from Jamison Williams in a full season in an offense that I think will be the best in football.
Starting point is 00:20:17 I mean, we have talked extensively about the beginning of the season for Jared Goff and what this offense should be able to do. This is the fourth in points per game last year, eighth in pace of play. They had a top 10 fantasy quarterback last year. They had two of the top 12 fantasy running backs. They have a projected win total of 10.5 going into this year. It's coming together, and they have the coaching staff
Starting point is 00:20:43 to keep things. Much like Shanahan in San Francisco. We are no longer surprised when they just do what they do. The machine keeps going. I am expecting that. Sands injuries from Detroit. They fell short of their goal last year. Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator, who had overtures from lots of teams
Starting point is 00:21:06 he's on the way back the defense in my opinion will improve I I am just I'm enamored with Detroit from a fantasy perspective from from an NFL perspective I completely completely get it and and really fantasy I'm an you know I I'm a big fan as well This is a team that's favored at 13 of their 17 games and they have probably one of the greatest total number of continuity. Players, coaches like this is the same team running
Starting point is 00:21:35 it back. They just paid Jared Goff 200 plus million dollars. Yeah, they've got the second most expensive offensive line in the league, which is currently going into this season, PFF's number one ranked offensive line. And Jared Goff is...
Starting point is 00:21:52 Give him an offensive line. Exactly. Like, he is not the world's best quarterback. But if you protect him and give him a pocket, he's going to sure look like he's up there with the best of the best. And so, yeah, I do totally get it. But their defense, I think, will be improved. That will maybe help the running game, maybe hurt the passing game a little bit.
Starting point is 00:22:13 And there are some question marks here from fantasy. You said you – I don't know if you said you expect Jamison Williams to take a step forward. Absolutely. But, I mean, what does that mean, a step? Because a step forward could be like maybe he has 500 yards fantasy relevance beyond the world of do i start josh reynolds who their one departure like a meaningful a meaningful role with meaningful production uh not top 12 i mean i'm just talking about a regular expectation going into the week
Starting point is 00:22:45 that Jamison Williams is going to be a part of the game plan, which I think can happen. And I do think, I mean, I know that you're paying a premium on Sam Laporta. I think it's very possible that Sam Laporta delivers on that. Like, the reason we don't like him isn't because we don't think Sam Laporta is good. It's just because you have to pay so much, so you're making a bet about repeating
Starting point is 00:23:06 especially in the touchdown total. It's very difficult to do year to year and so you're saying hey, I don't want to take that risk when I can get value on Mark Andrews and get value on Kyle Pitts and Dalton Kincaid and these other guys. The return on your investment is lower because Sam Laporta
Starting point is 00:23:23 let's say he finishes again as as the tight end one is he blowing away the number two tight end by like multiple points per game i don't think so which he has probably not but if the number two tight end isn't the one you thought that it was going to be then then it might not matter you You know what I'm saying? If he blows away the next two or three. It would have to be that he'd have to beat out Kelsey, McBride, and Andrews by multiple points per game. And he's 2-12, right? We're not in the Gronk territory or Kelsey.
Starting point is 00:23:58 He's not a first-round draft pick. I'm just saying there's an outcome, in my opinion. You're attached to one of the best offenses in football. There's an outcome where Laporta is clearly the number one. one yeah that's why he's being drafted as the number one I find myself a little bit more out just based on like regression data this is a player who had 10 touchdowns on 889 yards his expectation was more like six and a half touchdowns and over the last decade every single tight end with 10 touchdowns under 900 receiving yards regressed pretty heavily in touchdowns the next year so that's my that's my only fear but you also have a rookie going into year two correct and at tight end who's to say you know that that he's
Starting point is 00:24:35 not going to take a leap forward as a player the opportunity is there without uh josh reynolds so and if you don't believe in jameson williams which i got the underlying thought that if you don't believe in Jameson Williams, which I got the underlying thought that maybe you don't, then Laporta's so sad for you. It's crazy because you and I loved him. That's why I'm sad. So you giving up on him just
Starting point is 00:24:57 shows your conviction is weak. Yeah, it shows my conviction is weak where I stay water and look at what happens in the NFL. Your conviction is rough and my victory lap continues. Yeah, I shows my conviction is weak where I stay water and look at what happens in the NFL. Your conviction is rough, and my victory laugh continues. Yeah, I mean, he's been on the field so much and done so little that it's very difficult. But, yeah, I loved him coming out of college. He's my number two wide receiver, and I'm 1 million percent fine taking a shot on him.
Starting point is 00:25:18 He's in the 10th round as the wide receiver at 48. He's got explosive speed on one of the best offenses as the number two wide receiver there's plenty like i'll i'll draft plenty of jameson williams i assume no i will not let you i assume it's not going to work for him but the the risk reward is 100 there there's almost no risk and the reward could be a really exhilarating season mike talk about that early season schedule. Oh, brother. So we open up at home against the Los Angeles Rams. And look, if you've been in fantasy football, Jared Goff at home in the Dome is that you know you can play him.
Starting point is 00:26:01 And then especially if you add in, this is a defense that we expect you'll be able to beat. That's when Jared Goff really thrives. You open at home against the Rams. Then week two is at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which maybe they fixed some things, but at least last year, that was a team that was a secondary that you knew you could exploit for crazy yardage.
Starting point is 00:26:24 Week three, on the road against Arizona. Week four, against Seattle, the defense I just proclaimed to be doo-doo. So this four-game stretch is really set up for the Lions as a whole and for Jared Goff if you are waiting. And we've kind of talked about the strategy of we really like Jaden Daniels as a sleeper quarterback because he's going so late. But if you're not comfortable going into the season only with him as your guy, going a combo of Goff and Daniels, it's such a good start to me.
Starting point is 00:27:01 Jared Goff has three. Like the Lions have three total outdoor games in the year. That's what I'm talking about. So he's always been better home and dome, as you said. His games at Ford Field over the last two years, his pace was 4,700 yards and 43 passing touchdowns. That's insane. So let me flip it to the other side because it's Detroit.
Starting point is 00:27:22 So sometimes things can go wrong. And so if there's a player that is going to be drafted with expectation that does not perform, is it David Montgomery? Is it Jared Goff? What is the name for you? I mean, in truth, most of the time when a player really, really turns out to be a very bad pick. It's an injury. Jameer Gibbs is an undersized running back that you're drafting in the first round. So he probably carries the most risk, right? David Montgomery is a sixth rounder.
Starting point is 00:27:53 And while David Montgomery, you know, I've got him projected to lose quite a bit of work to Jameer Gibbs. I've got Jameer Gibbs as my running back three this season. The passing volume that I expect Jameer Gibbs to have in this offense is outstanding. The fact that Jameer Gibbs, I didn't even realize until prepping for the show, he had 10 rushing touchdowns. That's crazy. He was outstanding as a rookie. Most rookies who perform well as a running back in rookie season, they increase in the next year. And I don't see how you don't give him more work. So really it's injury risk with him. I think when he's on the field he's going to be outstanding,
Starting point is 00:28:31 and I'm not going to shy away because he's so fast, sometimes he doesn't get tackled. He's like running out of bounds past people. Only 316 receiving yards for Gibbs. So again, if you're out on Jamison Williams and you look at where vacated targets can leak into, it can be the running back position historically where we saw the workload increase for Jameer Gibbs
Starting point is 00:28:52 over the back half of the year. I think the – and this is just devil's advocate because I'm in on Jameer Gibbs with you guys. Gibbs, to me, is a player with the talent and the opportunity to finish RB1. That's in the range of outcomes for him. The way it goes bad to me, not just injury, it's the team decides, nah, we need to get back to, if we're in the five, it's only David Montgomery, which that's not what happened after the bye week
Starting point is 00:29:18 when both guys were back on the field. Montgomery's still getting a bunch of work, but Gibbs was seeing far more than he had before the roles really switched. So that's the only concern to me with Jameer Gibbs, and I don't think that's going to happen. Yeah, last four games of the season, inside the five-yard line,
Starting point is 00:29:40 Gibbs had at least one or two carries in all four games. So he wasn't taken off the field 100% of the time. One other thing to factor in is that last year Gibbs missed two games due to injury. Monty missed three due to injury. If either player is out on a top five offense, you've got gold at the position. So you not only are, you know, Gibbs is going to be good, I think,
Starting point is 00:30:03 regardless, but Monty becomes upper echelon if Gibbs goes down. Yes. The Green Bay Packers, we'll talk about them. Amon Ra is – Do we have to talk about him? Just real quickly, wide receiver four, third most receptions through the first three years of his career. And draft him.
Starting point is 00:30:22 He is great. There's nothing else to add for Amon Ra. Okay. Are you with that, Jason? No, we did not need to talk about him. He is great. There's nothing else to add for Amon Ra. No, we did not need to talk about him. Draft Amon Ra from Mike Wright. I am 100% with that. He's and thank you. He's he is the
Starting point is 00:30:37 center of this passing game and imagine what he could do if he takes his father's advice and starts down and uh refreshing coca-cola classic at the half hashtag non-sponsor refreshing coca-cola classic at halftime yeah yeah i mean i um i hope it's like a 64 ouncer and a big styrofoam cup on the sidelines and his dad dad is just like, take this. He's got a big gulp.
Starting point is 00:31:08 Well, the nice thing about that receiver documentary is that. Vomiting Coke everywhere. Amon Ra is an alpha in personality. Like this is a player that it's unacceptable for him to not receive a quantity of targets. Which you love to see. You want a player that's going to go out there and be loud enough. And, yeah, they don't have options outside of him in the wide receiver room yet.
Starting point is 00:31:37 All right, Green Bay, 9-8 last year, coming in with a 7.5 win total. This year it's up to 10.5. It was the coming out party for Jordan Love. So impressive. They ended up 13th in points per game over the course of the entire year. There is some turnover here. Aaron Jones is out the door. That is a name that has been synonymous with the Packers for so long, but their stability as well
Starting point is 00:32:04 and their head coach, Matt LaFleur, someone we trust so much with the offense. Jordan Love. I don't think he has a deal yet. It's coming. Like, Jordan Love is getting his money. And then you have a group of wide receivers that has been the talk of much of the offseason of how you break down. Like, this is where I don't want to be trapped.
Starting point is 00:32:23 I don't want to be so I don't want to be so unsure of which wide receiver is going to perform that we ignore what could be a top five offense in football and just I mean literally I mean not to I mean just to highlight it Jason we were in the middle of a draft yesterday in the mock draft now it was
Starting point is 00:32:40 late but you didn't take one guy you wanted in Dontavian Wicks because you were worried it would be Romeo Dobbs yeah it would be wrong to take him ahead of Romeo Dobbs so you took Dobbs and I think that that could happen that could happen earlier in the draft right for people that are looking at Jayden Reed are looking at Christian Watson where oh gosh am I making oh am I making the wrong move with this guy at this spot? I don't think you're going to feel comfortable drafting Packers wide receivers. And that's the headline to me is that they're going to be very good.
Starting point is 00:33:14 Jaden Reed currently is the earliest wide receiver, 34 in the back of the sixth. Yeah, I mean, you talk about Jason, you just brought up the Chargers. The first Charger player is in the eighth round. Well, the first wide receiver for a team in which you look at what Jordan Love did over the back half of the year is being drafted in this late sixth round. You're going to have Packers in the top of the wide receiver rankings. Yes. And so the real question is, are we getting ourselves distracted with Dobbs and Dontavian?
Starting point is 00:33:48 Should we kind of toss them out a little bit and focus on these other two players? Because Wicks took advantage, yes, over the last five games of the year. Two of those games, there was no Christian Watson. One of those games, there was no Jaden Reed. Should we try to hone in on a couple of guys so we don't miss the boat i think the hard part with jayden reed and we discussed him on the footcast a few days ago of
Starting point is 00:34:14 jayden reed is a very good player but if you're looking for ceiling, he doesn't seem like a player that can make that jump into being a top 15 wide receiver. So to me, it's identifying the player who can do that. I think Christian Watson has the physical ability if he can stay on the field, and when he was on the field and everybody was healthy, he was the alpha in terms of target share. I think it was like at a 21%, but that's right off the top of my head. So Jaden Reed is a safe pick for depth, but the ceiling's not there. Christian Watson,
Starting point is 00:34:57 far riskier, but has the ceiling. And I think then between Dobbs and Wicks, it's almost like it's the untapped ceiling that we haven't seen from Wicks. I think then between Dobbs and Wicks, it's almost like we – it's the untapped ceiling that we haven't seen from Wicks. I think Dobbs is more going to be like a Jane Reed type of a player where great depth piece, very usable player because he'll have whatever, eight-plus touchdowns. But I don't think that he can make the jump into being there. So working through it, I think I would narrow it down almost.
Starting point is 00:35:25 It comes down to team build, but if I'm shooting for the Stars, I'm going to go Watson or I'm going to go Wicks. I actually really like the way that you broke that out. Thank you. I agree with that. I think that Dobbs and Reed are safer, lower ceiling options, and when you're in the back half of the draft where all these guys are i'm shooting for i'm you know i'm i'm shooting for the moon yeah i the problem with watson has
Starting point is 00:35:52 been staying healthy yeah being on the field to fulfill the great potential that we see i'm leveling out his hamstrings yeah well we all want to do that don't we i don't care i'll take one real strong hamstring honestly yeah i was with uh i was doing some workouts with a trainer and he told me that my hamstrings are genetically so inflexible that it defies the way he understands a human body to work which jason and i have been in training together before and we both share the same DNA. Like if 23andMe ran it on my hamstrings, they'd be like, he doesn't have any. No, there's something genetically wrong with us.
Starting point is 00:36:35 And we used to have hamstring offs of like who could not stretch the best. If you're laying on the ground and the trainer picks your foot up off the ground, how early does your knee bend? Because mine is right away. Yeah, Jason's might be worse than mine, but went such a direction that I thought you were seriously going to come in hot. I was working out with the trainer guys, and he said genetically, my hamstrings are incredible. They're so beautiful. No, no.
Starting point is 00:36:53 They are flawless. Apparently, I have very special shoulder flexibility. Okay. Because you do those tests where can you grab your arm behind you, and my shoulders are good. Wherever the flexibility for my shoulders. Self sunscreen, not a problem. No, I get it all. No devil wings.
Starting point is 00:37:11 Here's what I'll say about Jordan Reed real quick. This was a rookie season for Jordan Reed where he put up Jordan Love and Jaden Reed combined. For Jaden Reed, 64 for 793 and 8.
Starting point is 00:37:25 Missed time due to injury at the end of the year. Very impressive rookie season. My eyeballs told me all last year this is the best wide receiver they have on the team. I'm going to stay with that. That's my pick. I don't have the injury dance with Christian Watson, and I do think Wicks and Dobbs indict the production of Watson
Starting point is 00:37:44 more than they do Reed in terms of the type of player. So in that regard, I do think Wicks and Dobbs indict the production of Watson more than they do Reed in terms of the type of player. So in that regard, I do agree he's safe. I think he has a little bit more of a crack door for upside than you guys do. But it's a good talk through. We'll do it again. I know it. And to highlight that, Reed ran two routes with two wide receivers on the field.
Starting point is 00:38:05 He is their third wide receiver. Yep. Yeah, no question. Now, do you just take Jordan Love and say, I think he's got one of the best wide receiver cores in the league? We haven't even talked about Musgrave, who looked great as a rookie at the tight end position. So many places he could throw a touchdown.
Starting point is 00:38:26 Bo Melton. Or are you saying – Butterman. Butterman, yeah. Or are you saying that, you know, if you take the wide receivers out and you just look at what a great season, you know, Jordan Love finishes as the quarterback five, but he's not really a mobile quarterback.
Starting point is 00:38:45 He's not going to add a lot on the ground, and we talk a lot about pocket passers needing to throw a ton and have a very high touchdown rate, which he had last year to be successful. So where are you on him? Was that his first season, and he kind of broke out and showed he is special, or was that kind of the best? Because Derek Carr had a season just like this. Yeah, he's great. No, he's better than Derek Carr.
Starting point is 00:39:07 And you have now talked me into adding Jaden Reed and Jordan Love to my stack list. That's what you've talked me into. Because Jordan Love's an eighth-round pick. I can go five rounds, pick my favorite five players, and then I can go Jayden reed wait around jordan love have a stack on an offense i believe in or even i mean if you have watson if you wanted to i was gonna say you even you have the buffer of like in the seventh if you want to just make
Starting point is 00:39:37 sure you get the jayden reed jordan love stack take love around early that's. That's nothing. No, I think we should always be smart about pocket passers that have kind of outlandish seasons. Jordan Love was cooking last year. I mean, this was awesome. He was, I think, the second highest in passing touchdowns, air yards, red zone pass attempts. They were amazing as an offense, throwing the ball in the red zone. They were tied for the second most
Starting point is 00:40:05 red zone passing touchdowns. 18 touchdowns, zero interceptions, which who does that remind you of? Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, it's crazy. Yeah, they done it again. Al might get a hard time from us all the time,
Starting point is 00:40:22 like every minute of every day. Yeah, I do. but none of it could compensate for how blessed he is as a packer fan al can't be hurt because he's gone from five to rogers to love so just remember that when you're crying in the corner of the office al i will thank you um the running backs yeah we're to talk running backs now. So they went out and surprised everybody, spent the money on Josh Jacobs. Last year, four rushing touchdowns for this team
Starting point is 00:40:55 on 368 attempts between Jones and Dillon. Get it together, Aaron Jones. That's like an outlandish, worst in thecade type of number on that many attempts. So are there running backs due? I mean, Josh Jacobs has a nose for the end zone. When you go look at what he did last year, even when he was inefficient,
Starting point is 00:41:16 he still had a good year because he scored a bunch. He had a nose for the buffet last year. Okay. All right. He wasn't that fat. No, I know. He was super shredded. He was shredded. But Jacobs arrives.
Starting point is 00:41:31 Marshawn Lloyd was the third round investment at running back. We like the offense. We've talked a lot about Josh Jacobs being somebody we're very afraid to draft. Risk and reward. I mean, this is a guy who led the league in rushing a couple years ago. The only thing I will caution is that Matt LaFleur has said this
Starting point is 00:41:53 a billion times before. He is a committee coach. He wants to keep his guys fresh. So you're looking for the most efficient running back in a committee. You're not looking for just who gets the ball first. Now that's what made Aaron Jones so great. He was so electric on a per-touch basis. It back in a committee. You're not looking for just who gets the ball first. Now, that's what made Aaron Jones so great. He was so electric on a per-touch basis. It worked in a committee.
Starting point is 00:42:10 Josh Jacobs has found success when he got massive volume. You know, this is where I lean towards if you want a piece of the running game. Super late in the draft, Marshawn Lloyd, explosive rookie coming in, and some of the stuff that the coaches are talking about, about whether they're going to take it slow like they did rookie. They asked their OC, are you going to take it slow like you did with A.J. Dillon? He said, no, I'd like to get him out there as much as possible. He's got a skill set that's a bit different from A.J.'s as far as his speed.
Starting point is 00:42:42 Be nice to get him his points. I know, A.J AJ's just not bad. Did he say that without laughing? I'm watching the video. He did say that without laughing. Impressive. Let me flag something we've never talked about with Marshawn Lloyd when you look at how things could work out in that backfield.
Starting point is 00:42:57 He will be a compliment to Jacobs no matter what. Correct. Or like Jacobs is a solidified piece, right? Lloyd is going to have to take advantage of early opportunities on that team, which you said that they're eager to give him. Here's the one caveat with Lloyd I want you to put in the back of your head. Eight fumbles over 291 career attempts. Second smallest hands of any running back in the scouting combine.
Starting point is 00:43:19 Oh, no. So if you want to understand how that – and they have Dylan on the roster, right? Currently. They are not forced. And they have other players, right? Who contributed? Patrick Taylor? Small, I know.
Starting point is 00:43:33 These hands? Oh, we're bringing it back? Oh. Let's get that done. Got a new baby hands here. Oh, baby hands. I guess. I didn't know this about his small, tiny baby hands. He's got little bitty
Starting point is 00:43:45 baby hands, and he's fumbled eight times on 300 attempts. Little jewel hands. You fumbled twice as a rookie? Oh, it's a problem. See you later. So just keep that in mind. I'm not trying to throw cold water on his talent, but just as a rookie on a team with expectations, it's always about
Starting point is 00:44:01 can you start the season not like Tank Bigsby? That's what I call it. Try not to Bigsby. Which is called volleyballing the ball into the other team's hands. Bigsby's like, I was going to fumble it. Maybe I'll just throw it up in the air. See what happens. Their opening schedule, week one.
Starting point is 00:44:19 Tough one on the road against Philly. Don't love that. But then Indianapolis at home, on the road against Tennessee, at home against Minnesota, that's not too bad. That's great. All right, we're going to take a break. Come back with Minnesota. All right, it was a tough year for the Vikings, 7-10.
Starting point is 00:44:42 Injuries plagued this team. It was really hard for the first time for fantasy managers to deal with. 7-10. Injuries plagued this team. It was really hard for the first time for fantasy managers to deal with no Justin Jefferson. It was a bad time. And then it was also hard to not have Kirk Cousins
Starting point is 00:44:57 and to be going into the year without Kirk Cousins. The win total last year was 8.5. This year it's 6.5 from Vegas. They have the sixth most difficult schedule and a brutal division. Yeah, I mean, the Bears should be legitimately good this year. And the other two teams we talked about
Starting point is 00:45:18 are both in contention to win the division and go on maybe a Super Bowl hunt. So, yeah, this is not going to be easy sledding for the Minnesota Vikings this season. So that, I mean, that's the overview. Now, we don't know who the quarterback's going to be, Darnold, McCarthy. Some of what you just said,
Starting point is 00:45:38 like looking like they might be the worst team in the division, is one of the reasons that I am the least bullish of our three-pack on Aaron Jones because you're having an older running back that a team you know we can debate how much they wanted him back I always go with the if you really wanted him back you bring him back you know situation um price was too much for them they moved on to Josh Jacobs whatever But if this team is not moving the football the way we want them to, if they're not an efficient offense,
Starting point is 00:46:10 if the quarterback is changing halfway through the year, those are some of the things I'd be concerned about, especially if Ty Chandler and what he did last year gets worked into the mix. There's a lot of questions, I think, beyond Jefferson. Jefferson, we're all in the opinion of
Starting point is 00:46:24 draft him, play him. He's a superstar. Maybe you need to ignore all the peripheral around him and just do that. But Jason made a good point on the mock draft show of what he really sees the ceiling as compared to some of these other top tier options. Jefferson ended up going late in the first. Yeah, and that's probably where he should go. This is a guy that is almost guaranteed to be a wide receiver one
Starting point is 00:46:49 and almost guaranteed to not be a top-three wide receiver with the quarterback play and the expected touchdown availability he'll have. So, you know, a low-end wide receiver one, that's great. Well, sorry, I am distracted, Jason. Were you going to hit the breaking news? I was going to hit the breaking news, but it's not a – this is news to me. I have just found out right here on the show,
Starting point is 00:47:11 after all of this off-season of talking Aaron Jones down, Mike is one spot lower than I am on Aaron Jones. I got him at – I didn't know that either. No, I got him at 25, Jason at 13, Mike at 26. Now, was this something that was inverting? I didn't even – I just went to check. Or were you listening?
Starting point is 00:47:29 No. I've kind of been in the middle of the two of you guys, but I feel the way that the coaches talked about Ty Chandler, like that kid is going to play, and it would shock me if this is a full Aaron Jones-led situation for an offense that is probably going to struggle. So a committee with all that, it's like Aaron Jones will be,
Starting point is 00:47:55 he'll have some huge spike games for sure, but he's not a target for me. Yeah, I will just throw this out. The last time we saw Aaron Jones, he was great. This wasn't a player like the last time we saw Josh Jacobs where he was struggling and then got injured. He was the running back one on the week to start the year last year. He got injured, dealt with injuries throughout the season. When he came back the last four weeks, he was 13 for 53, 21 for 127, 20 for 120, 22 for 111,
Starting point is 00:48:26 and he works in the passing game. Rookie quarterbacks aren't usually great for their wide receivers, but rookie quarterbacks are pretty good for running backs. They tend to lean on the run a little bit more. It's not necessarily the high upside, but a high floor for that. So this is a team that has been massacred by Aaron Jones for years. They were surprised that he came to the market and they went and got him. And so this is a smart offensive system. I didn't see him lose a step. And so I think he is going to be very relevant.
Starting point is 00:49:01 Whether he can be a running back one on this team, maybe not. But you're not drafting him like that. So I do think it's an okay pick where he's going right now. Where is he going? Fifth, sixth round? Fifth round. Yeah, RB18. The first five weeks of the season, they're heavy underdogs in most of those games.
Starting point is 00:49:17 They go to New York to face the Giants. Then they play San Francisco, Houston, in Green Bay against the Jets. Yo. What? Do you think that was their GM's reaction to the schedule release, Mike? Did they just go, yo? I think they went and they wrote down week six by week quarterback change. That's what they wrote down.
Starting point is 00:49:42 That's why Darnold's starting. Darnold will start. Oh, he is being sacrificed. Hawkinson won't be there. Addison, who knows? Yeah. I mean, I would love to have this conversation about, hey, go give me another pass catcher. I mean, that's your
Starting point is 00:49:56 best argument for Aaron Jones. Find me a pass catcher outside of Justin Jefferson that I have to start in week one. Go. If Addison is suspended by any chance, then it is Aaron Jones. I mean, right now, I brought him up. Is it Jalen Naylor? He's profiling as the three slash two if Addison's gone.
Starting point is 00:50:13 And then Brandon Powell in Dynasty could be involved as well. Those are two names for deeper. Hit that nasty boys drop if I'm saying Jalen Naylor's name. But those are guys that could see the field. How about some Johnny Munt? No. No. Johnny Munt making more money at the tight end position than Trey McBride
Starting point is 00:50:34 this year. Johnny Munt is such a tight end name. Yeah, so look, not promising. Not promising to have a quarterback you can start. The running back room we'll see, but could be very committee-based on low opportunities around the red zone. We do like Kevin O'Connell. I mean, I like the opportunity for them.
Starting point is 00:51:00 I think he's going to want to do stuff in this offense he won't be able to execute because of the personnel. That schedule is so rough for drafting Minnesota Vikings. You want to add something to the Jefferson conversation? Yeah, I mean like Jefferson still... He drafted him in the first round.
Starting point is 00:51:18 He's the greatest wide receiver in football right now. But that is... You want me to add to it? I read five games. They're not favored in their first nine. but that is... You want me to add to it? Sure. I read five games. They're not favored in their first nine. So you go beyond the five games I just read.
Starting point is 00:51:30 Sixth most difficult strength of schedule. That's not fair. That's not great. Let's talk about Chicago. All right. Fun. Last year, seven and a half win total. There were two and six in one score games.
Starting point is 00:51:43 The Justin Fields experiment is over. This year, projected win total of eight and a half win total. There were two and six in one score games. The Justin Fields experiment is over. This year, projected win total of eight and a half. They have the third easiest schedule for 2024. And, you know, I could sit here and give you all their numbers on offense last year. I don't care
Starting point is 00:52:00 about them. Yeah, you throw them away. And this was a defense that was number one in rushing yards per game. It took major steps. It's going to continue to improve, I think. And like I said, Matt Eberflus is currently the betting favorite to win coach of the year. And we got Shane Waldron in as the offensive coordinator.
Starting point is 00:52:18 He also looks like my number one pick to coach an Icelandic hockey team. Yes. That is where I'm looking at the picture, and he is from Mighty Ducks too. Give me the name, Kyle. Wolf the dentist Stanson. Oh, he breaks in with his. Kyle is always on the draw for Mighty Ducks or recently Angels in the Outfield statistics from the movie.
Starting point is 00:52:46 Impressive. Wolf the dentist? Come on, man. This is Pat Riley's haircut. It's like Ibraflux saw that movie and was like, that's the look. This is Pat Riley on the sideline. We're doing it again. I will avoid the sun and I will grease my hair.
Starting point is 00:53:01 I mean, is this Showtime in Chicago is the question because caleb williams jimmy just posted the picture it's the same guy it is the same guy wait this is the actor yes is the this is the actual matt eberflus and his imdb played wolf the dentist yeah yeah um caleb williams just signed his deal they said let's equip him as well as we possibly can veteran pass catcher extraordinaire keenan allen welcome to the bears dj moore breakout campaign with justin fields despite the struggles we um we've got deandre swift to help you in help you out of the backfield. I mean, Gerald Everett's there. Roma Dunzay. Cole Komet's there.
Starting point is 00:53:48 Roma Dunzay's there. They spent the ninth pick. They went out and got a great veteran. They traded for one of the best wide receivers while they already had a good wide receiver, and then they said, nah, not done. Number nine pick. We're drafting one of the best rookie wide receivers in a loaded top heavy class you can't enter a better situation you know what it reminds me of than Caleb Williams it reminds me
Starting point is 00:54:10 of when Cincinnati made the pick on Jamar Chase when we were all sitting here going you know we recognize T Higgins could be the one of an offense you have Tyler Boyd who was contributing at a high you know what I mean and you need Panay Sewell because your offensive line is trash and they said you know what let's double down on making sure our rookie is successful and uh you know what I mean and they need Penae Sewell because your offensive line is trash and they said you know what let's double down on making sure our rookie is successful and uh you know Penae Sewell is amazing but um but Jamar Chase is as well so they have equipped him they have a good defense they said goodbye to Darnell Mooney I think they have three running backs that will contribute in this office to what degree that? That is yet to be seen. I just don't want people to... DeAndre Swift is going to be their higher volume piece of the committee.
Starting point is 00:54:52 No question. But I don't want people to forget about like Roshon Johnson. And there's been positivity around him so far. Roshon Johnson is one of my favorite best ball picks. He's going so late, I don't really understand it. He's being drafted like Khalil Herbert is the clear backup, and then Roshon Johnson is not a part of this
Starting point is 00:55:14 offense. And I think Roshon Johnson will be the number two running back for this team. He's great on third downs. He's a quality back. I prefer the younger, more explosive guy. I would firmly bet Cleo will be the RB2. As do the average person because –
Starting point is 00:55:35 Oh, he called you average. Yeah. He just said you're ordinary. How's that feel, Mr. Normal? Basic. Basic Mike. It feels fine. I mean, Roshan Johnson had many times throughout the season where he should have taken over.
Starting point is 00:55:50 And he did not. And they were like, nah, this Deontay Foreman guy. And then Foreman comes in and has great games. And then Foreman has banished himself to Siberia. And they're like, should we put the rookie in? They're like, nope. Back to Khalil Herbert. Well, to be fair, he was a rookie.
Starting point is 00:56:08 He was just getting in there and he led all Chicago running backs in third down snaps and snaps and pass protection last year as a rookie. That sounds like DeAndre Swift. I haven't made the judgment call on him yet. I think we can see how this year goes. 4.3 a carry as a rookie. Limited opportunities.
Starting point is 00:56:24 Didn't earn it. Didn't earn the top job. I get it. The wide receiver room is really interesting. It's heavily dependent on a big year from a rookie quarterback, Caleb Williams. We had a show a couple months ago
Starting point is 00:56:38 where I was talking about expectations for rookie quarterbacks. Really looking at what's a fair expectation to provide your receiver room if you're the number one pick versus being just a first-round pick versus just being a rookie quarterback in general. It definitely lent itself to you're the number one overall pick. Your number one wide receiver numbers are much better. It's around 1,000 yards.
Starting point is 00:57:03 It's around seven touchdowns. So, you know, if it was just DJ Moore and no one else, it would be easy to say, okay, Moore's going to be that guy. We're getting the murkiness of, well, Odunze is really talented and Allen is really experienced, and DJ Moore had a really good year last year. Yeah, I mean, when you dug deep on that research, which was great, you did find that most of those really great wide receivers
Starting point is 00:57:26 connected to 101 quarterbacks, like Steve Smith. Steve Smith was awesome, but also it was like him and no one else. And so here, you're going to have rookie numbers, and I think they're going to be prolific rookie numbers. I think Caleb Williams is going to have one of the better rookie wide receiver seasons, or rookie quarterback seasons of all time. But even that is not. I think that's like, sorry to derail the conversation, but that's like, that's it. Caleb Williams is being drafted as the QB 11, which is like, that's not the worst thing in the world. Like he's, he's not being steamed up to being, you know, like a top eight guy. I like that phrase.
Starting point is 00:58:06 Being steamed up. Yeah, we never used that before. He is being drafted in, what, the eighth round? And the price is palatable. Jason. But what does prolific look like to you? That's what I'm asking. I'm going to put you on the spot.
Starting point is 00:58:22 Jason Moore,iams over under 4108 passing yards i would take the under based on history touchdowns over under 23 passing touchdowns i've got him exactly at 23 that's that's my projection for him is not been fun prolific my butt yeah i mean no no that's that's what I say that is CJ Stroud's two numbers so if he doesn't Stroud was the quarterback 11 with 4,100 yards and 23 touchdowns if you throw 4,000 yards and 23 touchdowns for an NFL quarterback for fantasy purposes that sucks for a rookie quarterback that is prolific that those are you're in the top ten of both of those numbers. That is an unbelievable rookie season.
Starting point is 00:59:09 So that's where, let's say he throws 4,325. That's one of the best, not necessarily fantasy, because the best fantasy rookies are mobile running quarterbacks. But as far as a guy that's going to just put up a ton through the air, that's as good as it ever gets. Then you split that up three ways. Yeah, I don't know if you split it up three ways, man. Well, that's the question, is what's the pecking order of the wide receiver? Yeah, and that would also make him the best quarterback the Bears have ever had
Starting point is 00:59:36 statistically by a wide margin. I do think that's possible. 17-game season, amazing peripherals, like the defense, the coaching, the receivers. I think Caleb Williams could go do that for sure. But, you know, who becomes his favorite? Right?
Starting point is 00:59:56 Like, is Keenan Allen have a long play? I mean, you have to pay up for DJ Moore compared to the other guys. Roma Dunze, you're a rookie. There's a lot of question marks about whether you're going to – I mean, you're not out-snapping DJ Moore and Keenan Allen in this offense. So three wide, that's your situation, right? And you do have – What's their 12 personnel numbers?
Starting point is 01:00:20 I probably have that. It's hard to say because you've got Shane Waldron coming over who has been the Seattle offensive coordinator. And if you look at what Seattle did last year, they had three similar players. numbers well it's hard it's hard to say because you you've got uh Shane Waldron coming over from who has been the Seattle offensive coordinator and if you look at what Seattle did last year they had three similar players right you had a a speedster in Tyler Lockett don't say that that's kind of like uh DJ Moore you had your really great slot route runner in JSN that's Keenan Allen and you had your big bodied guy like DK Metcalf and um so so if they're implementing a similar offensive system to what we saw in Seattle Keenan scares the crap out of me
Starting point is 01:00:51 because the amount of catch the ball 40 yards behind the line of scrimmage yes exactly his average depth of target is going to be zero they were 11th and 12 personnel last year by the way Seattle was with that's that's a compelling compelling argument because I was just about to say I think Keenan's the one I'm going to take. I don't want to pay up for DJ Moore and I don't want to do the, well, I'll just take the last one because I'm not going to bet on the rookie. I definitely
Starting point is 01:01:15 have softened on DJ Moore from where I was in February and March and looking forward to the season. Maybe not February and March, but a couple months ago. Because of just the fact that you have three talented players, you've got a really talented tight end, you've got a pass-catching running back, and then
Starting point is 01:01:32 you have a cap on rookie production, historically, where we've never seen a double-digit touchdown year. So it's not like I can say, okay, he spreads it around, but DJ Moore puts up 10 or 11. That's really, really unlikely. But this could be a really, really good team where they win a lot of games and they're more disappointing for fantasy.
Starting point is 01:01:50 I think that's what's going to happen. I think they're going to be a very exciting team. I also believe that there will be massive games where Caleb Williams does go out and throw 350 and four in a single week, and you're thrilled and excited. But it's probably going to be a little bit of a learning curve here it's time it's time for uh well no it's not i'll wait a second i want to hear about deandre swift real quick because we don't we don't talk about him enough or a lot sixth round pick right now i think we're all a little lower than adp on him why is that because 47 of his yards came before contact last year behind the
Starting point is 01:02:26 Philadelphia Eagles offensive line. He had, I mean, you saw those cameras, those Madden angle cameras from behind the quarterback where it's like, dude, I could have got one yard through that line. Because it was like five yards to the left, five yards to the right, the holes he was running through. Now, this isn't a bad offensive line, and obviously you're not going to be stacking the box against the running game with all these wide receivers. I think DeAndre Swift is going to be okay. They went after him immediately in free agency. He fit the scheme perfectly.
Starting point is 01:02:54 This was clearly a desire, so I think they have a plan for him. He'll be involved. He's being drafted as the running back 21, which doesn't feel too bad. If you want to take a shot on him, everything I said about rookie quarterbacks being bad for wide receivers but good for the floor of a running back applies here to DeAndre Swift. I just don't – Has Mike forgiven him?
Starting point is 01:03:16 Are you ready to jump back in? I was going to ask the question of what do you make about a player – I know the money's there, but it's his third team in three years, right? Yeah, the Brandon Cooks of the running back position. People, they tire of it. It has happened. That is, and maybe it was just a situation of Philadelphia would have loved to get him back, but he played his way into a contract,
Starting point is 01:03:44 and they were able to get Saquon Barkley. Maybe that is literally the entirety of the explanation, but it's hard, man. I mean, Detroit did that. We know who he is. We know who DeAndre Swift is. He's a good running back who can help a team in trunks. He's not going to be great. He's not going to be a top fantasy.
Starting point is 01:04:00 Here's his four seasons as fantasy finish. Running back 18, running back 19, running back 22, running back 23. He's been drafted as a running back 21. Sounds about right. That's the Terry McLaurin of the running back spot. I think that he's actually positionally not a good running back. I think that he is an extremely talented human being, an athlete, and a competent football player.
Starting point is 01:04:27 But just the way that Jameer Gibbs couldn't get on the field because he was doing boneheaded things that we can't necessarily see, I'm guessing that has an influence on it. All right, I'm going to be boring. Are you? Yeah, Detroit, Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota. I am going to be boring. Are you? Yeah, Detroit, Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota. Okay. I am going to be less boring.
Starting point is 01:04:48 I'm going Packers, Lions, Bears, Vikings. I'm so happy to hear you say that, Jason, because if you both had the Lions at the top, I'm like, someone has to have the courage to put the Packers first. So you did it. I don't have to do it. Lions, Packers, Bears So you did it. I don't have to do it. Lions, Packers, Bears, Vikings.
Starting point is 01:05:09 All right. Tuesday we will cover the NFC South. A reminder on, yeah, Jeremy's already correcting or congratulating Jason on his pick of the Packers at the top. Nobody picked Chicago, obviously. Very close in
Starting point is 01:05:23 the odds with Green Bay in terms of the betting on they certainly could win this division yeah but guns Mahoney could beat up all the other coaches that's fair that's true that's Dan Campbell everybody the NFC South on Tuesday ultimate draft kid calm head over there right now pick up the ultimate draft
Starting point is 01:05:43 kid to help you dominate your draft get ready for what's coming very soon, draft day. It's almost here. All right, that is going to do it for us. If you want to watch the show, go over to YouTube, youtube.com slash the fantasy footballers. Subscribe, click the bell over there. Back with another show on Tuesday. Enjoy your weekend.
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