Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - NFC South Breakdown + Stinky Treasures - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/19

Episode Date: July 19, 2025

Fantasy Football show for July 19, 2025. NFC South preview for the 2025 fantasy football season! Get a full breakdown for the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, and Saints! Will Baker Mayfield dominate ag...ain? Can the Panthers take a step forward? Plus, Rashee Rice legal news and more. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.2025 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT + Draft Analyzer available now at UltimateDraftKit.com(00:00) Intro(05:30) NFL News(19:30) NFC South Breakdown(20:00) Tampa Bay Buccaneers(36:25) Atlanta Falcons(45:00) Carolina Panthers(53:20) New Orleans SaintsConnect with the show:Subscribe on YouTubeVisit us on the WebSupport the ShowFollow on XFollow on InstagramJoin our Discord

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Oh, it's Saturday. Oh, vroom vroom. Hop on that lawn mower, Jason. Did we get you in on the idea, Jay, of the riding mower? Ohower? I still live in Arizona. No. No way. You know how hot that lawnmower is? My skin is seared. No, no, no, no, no. Inclosed with air conditioning. Oh, absolutely. I'm in. Yeah. Do they make any of those?
Starting point is 00:00:55 Like the Pope Mobile. Right. Like, I'll go mow the grass of, like, the Cardinal Stadium. He's just being displayed. I know, but I was saying, like, put some blades on the bottom of that thing. I haven't looked at a picture of the Pote Mobile in a while. It's got to have blades, right? Yeah, it's multifunctional. No, is it just glass though up top?
Starting point is 00:01:15 I think it's Saran Wrap. Like a fishbowl? Oh, Saran Wrap. I don't know. No idea. When's the last time the Pote Mobile went out for a ride? I don't know. It's a fun word to say
Starting point is 00:01:32 Happy Saturday everybody. It's the fantasy footballers podcast back with you NFC South breakdown episode So enjoy your weekend shores with us We're excited to talk about this division. There are There are questions. There are hopefully some answers on today's episode in terms of players that we're into as we look at all the changes and, you know, it's, it's going to be interesting in Atlanta in particular with a quarterback change. And now I'm getting bombarded with Pope mobile pictures. I've moved on to the booger mobile and just reminiscing about that. Oh man, what a tragedy. The booger mobile blocking everybody's view. ESPN had booger on there and they were like,
Starting point is 00:02:10 we gotta get this guy out of here. And they're like, what do we do? Put him on this contraption on the sideline that blocks all the big paying customers. The older I get, the more I realize how dumb people are in every single field. Right. There are a lot of them. The older I get, the more I realize how dumb people are in every single field. Right, there are a lot of them. Like production, like I watched the MLB,
Starting point is 00:02:33 I saw a brief clip of the MLB home run derby and somebody there thought that what we wanted to see was a whole lot of the pitchers, which are like the coaches the coaches that are in the in the derby in the derby shot We got like a huge view of the net and their arms and then and a little view of the batter hmm, and then like what the NBA the NBA on ESPN with the the graphics that look like they came from 1994 where instead of showing me the replay you are burning so many bridges for us right now you show me a claymation animation of the replay where I want to watch the replay these opinions are only shared by Andrew
Starting point is 00:03:11 Holloway right oh you are his own you brought up the booger mobile that was yes it was great what an idea bring it back oh my goodness all right well it's so big and they're like yeah just slap a television on the back of it So that so the fans won't miss anything booger flying up and down the sidelines Good well good good. Thank you for joining us If you want to watch this show you can do so on YouTube YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers Make sure you subscribe subscribe and click the bell That'll let you know when Mike's going live Sunday live coming soon. Oh, yeah, it is the NFL season The Fantasy Footballers, make sure you subscribe and click the bell.
Starting point is 00:03:45 That'll let you know when Mike's going live, Sunday live coming soon. Oh yeah it is. With the NFL season. We're coming in hot. We've got the ability to follow us over on Spotify and Apple. Drop us a five star review over there if you got a couple extra minutes this weekend.
Starting point is 00:03:59 That would be awesome, that would help the show out. This Find Independent podcast, you can make sure Al Borland over there, she keeps getting a paycheck. You know? And Smirky Smirkerson. Yeah, Papa Josh. We appreciate you.
Starting point is 00:04:11 Papa Josh is on a big road trip this week, took the week off to go on a big, big road trip. A virtual road trip. Virtual road trip. I believe he's. He'll be back next week. Who knows where Josh is? You know, the problem is,
Starting point is 00:04:24 when he needs time off, I'm not giving it. That's all I'm saying. He's on his video game machine week who knows where Josh is you know the problem is he needs time off I'm not giving it that's all I'm saying you game machine that's that's his video game machine well are you 80,000 years old well sometimes Nintendo's what are you doing But no one's ever called him. Just pick one. Burn him down, Mike. All right, let's move on. Your video game machine. Oh man. Goodness gracious. You know what, Mike? What?
Starting point is 00:04:51 I hate myself. Thank you, thank you. You did it. You did it. All right, well. Happy Saturday. Quick reminder, all of you, the ultimate draft kit, that's a fun tool to, you know,
Starting point is 00:05:06 you can pull that open this weekend and start looking at all of our rankings for 2025, all of our sleepers breakouts, busts, and values. Take a look at the draft analyzer, which you can break down mock drafts as well. You can load those into the draft analyzer and that's all available at ultimatedraftkit.com. Yeah, and guess what had to be changed?
Starting point is 00:05:26 Some projections. Cause uh, it's lawyer time. It's lawyer time. News and notes from around the league. Well, we barely missed this news on our last episode of the show, but here we go. Rashi Rice. We didn't know if his legal troubles, his legal situation was going to be taken care of ahead of the 2025 season, or if we'd be waiting for another year
Starting point is 00:05:58 before a potential suspension. However, news came in early on Thursday. suspension. However, news came in early on Thursday. A Dallas County judge has sentenced Rashi Rice to five years probation and 30 days of jail time that can be served anytime during the five years of probation. That's nice. All stemming from his role in a multi-car crash in Dallas during the 2024 off season. That means that it is highly likely, although not official as of this recording, that he will serve his suspension in 2025,
Starting point is 00:06:29 and that that suspension from everything that, my initial reaction to it, I took four games away from Rashe Rice, everything I'm seeing right now from more well-trained legal experts and CBA experts, and Jason even ran it through the AI overlords looking at the CBA. Had a deep dive. The precedent set, but it looks like four games
Starting point is 00:06:49 is right in that sweet spot of what we can expect. It could be more. I mean, the league has to look at, they don't just look at what the courts determine when they determine their punishments. They also look at extenuating circumstances, mitigating circumstances, and the actual events that transpired. You know, Rashi Rice fled the scene of an accident, caused an accident, was charged with assault. Doesn't matter
Starting point is 00:07:12 what he pleads down to, if the league determines that they want to hit him harder, that could happen, could be an appeal, yada yada yada. It seems like it would be a minimum of two games, a maximum of six games is the broadest strokes. That seems like the range. And then whatever it comes out as, when it comes out, it could be challenged and if it comes out as six games, it could end up being four games once the appeal process has gone through
Starting point is 00:07:38 if Rice decides to do that. But the good news is, this should all happen in time before most drafts. Like by the time we get to do that, but the good news is this will all this should all happen in time before most drafts like by the Time we get to draft season we should know rossi rice is missing the first x games Yeah, shout out to the best ball bros out there who? Overdrafted rice said yeah, you know the worst part of this. I mean not the worst part. Let's be Yeah, the worst part is what happened to pretty bad part. Where's part happened to like the people in the end? Yeah, but the second worst part is that for the first time
Starting point is 00:08:08 in the whole dang off season, I draft Rashi Rice in a mock draft last week, like a show ago, and you guys are all like, Kyle's going, finally, you're on board. The fantasy reaper. Well, I'm not on board anymore. Let me put it that way. And this is gonna throw into flux Travis Kelsey.
Starting point is 00:08:27 Yes. Patrick Mahomes, any hopes of like a real resurgent Patrick Mahomes year. I'm not excited about that potential right now. Xavier Worthy's draft spot is going to change. Hollywood Brown's total targets, you know, our projections for the Chiefs can be completely renovated.
Starting point is 00:08:42 Yeah, when I watched the Chiefs last last year especially take the first like six games the first three with rice the next three without him And you saw the same area of the field that Travis Kelsey's operating Kelsey got off to a really slow start last year They they are vying for those same type of targets So I think the biggest beneficiary here is Travis Kelsey. I expect him to get off to a strong start this season while Rushie Rice misses games. Yeah, which makes sense too, which is an older player. The late season or late career Larry Fitzgerald and Heinz Ward, they had such stronger front halves of the season.
Starting point is 00:09:19 But now you have to think about, you know, you take the shot on Rushie Rice in a draft and we'll get the amount of games suspended. But this is not an IR eligible player. Correct. This is now gonna be a player that, let's say it's six. Oh man.
Starting point is 00:09:31 If it's six games, you're holding Rashi Rice on your bench for six games. I don't think so. He was really, really good last year, but I want to stress, it was three games, and it was three games where you had Pacheco injured, no Hollywood Brown, or Hollywood Brown, not Brown, Brown, and it was a little different, right?
Starting point is 00:09:49 Like, Xavier Worthy was a brand new rookie who had barely had any snaps, like. Put it this way, before this news, when there was an assumption that he would be healthy and play the entire season, there was plenty of debate on whether he was a decent draft pick or not. So it's not like this is Justin Jefferson missing four games or six games. You're going to have to hold on to someone and take up a bench spot and
Starting point is 00:10:12 whatever draft capital to spend on him. You know, he's dropping down to the fourth now. Will he go later? Will he be sixth? I don't know what it is yet, but it's going to be a very risky pick. And you better believe you're right if you take him, that he's gonna be a superstar. Gonna have to send somebody to law school here at the company.
Starting point is 00:10:32 Seriously. Can't be one of the deucers, they'll never pass the bar. Oh. I don't think we need them to pass the bar though. Oh really? Oh are they just auditing classes? Yeah, they just take some courses. It'll be cheaper for us.
Starting point is 00:10:43 If they pass the bar, they're leaving the, then they're going to go be lawyers. No, that's true. We don't pay them anything. They could go under the bar. Yeah, that's true. Especially Matt. Jordan Addison, guess what? My goodness gracious.
Starting point is 00:10:56 Pled guilty to a lesser included vehicular offense. We are children. We're children. The technical term, is this what you'd like me to just call it? I think, is this technical or is this slang? This is technical. OK. It's wet reckless.
Starting point is 00:11:16 He pleaded guilty on a wet reckless charge. We find you guilty. So I'm seeing. Of wet reckless. I'm seeing the official. Guilty as charged. I'm seeing it as wet and reckless. Whoa. I don't know which one's worse.
Starting point is 00:11:31 That one's worse. Wet and reckless? Wet and reckless. Your honor. Your honor. Often shortened to wet reckless is a type of plea bargain where a prosecutor in Arizona agrees to, or in whatever state, agrees to reduce a misdemeanor driving other influence
Starting point is 00:11:47 to a ridiculous name. Jordan Addison is wet and reckless. We should all be laughing. No, this is a serious offense. Really bad. Serious and reckless. And then we gotta give names out like this and it's just.
Starting point is 00:12:00 Really throws us off. It is, because it's objectively funny. Yeah, it is. So look, he's going, the TLDR, two to three games. Two to three games Jordan Addison's likely to miss as a suspension for being wet and reckless. Danifil was reviewing it. So, are we done with that?
Starting point is 00:12:19 Yeah, I could go all day. Oh, I will. So let's just move on. I don't wanna make light at something that is a very bad decision. Yes. Okay, how about this? We've got Jefferson, nicknamed Jet. Jet and Reckless.
Starting point is 00:12:32 Jet. Reckless is Addison. That's a combo. Jet and Reckless? Jet and Reckless? Mike is not in. Because I don't want to say the other one. Okay.
Starting point is 00:12:42 The Chargers officially placed Najee Harris on the NFI, the non-football injury list to begin training camp. Still waiting for that photo. I really want to see. You want to see his eye. I want to see his eye. Yeah. I think we all do.
Starting point is 00:12:58 Yeah, I mean, there's no joke to it. I want to know that he's okay. Yeah, exactly, Mike. Trey Harris has now agreed to terms. We'll sign his rookie contract. They're flowing in. All the second rounders are gonna start signing now. Yeah!
Starting point is 00:13:10 Oh. Yay! And in conjunction with Trey Harris, rookie wide receiver for the Los Angeles Chargers, Mike Williams officially retired from the NFL after eight seasons. He's only 30 years old. Was the seventh overall pick in 2017.
Starting point is 00:13:33 I mean, it's time, I guess the injuries are just piling up for Mike Williams. He, he, no player jumped higher and landed harder than Mike Williams throughout his entire career. So many like sports center style catches from Mike Williams, but he just couldn't stay healthy. He's a special guy. There's not a lot of 6'3", plus 210 pound wide receivers out there, and so I don't know where they're gonna find a 6'3", 210 pound receiver to replace him. Oh wait, they just signed Trey Harrison? Yeah, baby! Jason is the highest in the entire office on Trey Harris 7.
Starting point is 00:14:07 In the world. He's at 59 in your wide receiver rankings right now. Very bullish, obviously. It could be Keenan Allen coming back to Los Angeles, too. There's some rumors about Keenan coming home. That'd be fun. That would help. If Keenan came, though, that would be really hard, I think, more on Ladd.
Starting point is 00:14:24 That would be bad for Lad. Bad for Lad. Make me sad. Yeah. That was pretty bad. It's got a Saturday vibe here, guys. The, like, you know what? Look at that shirt Al's wearing.
Starting point is 00:14:36 That's a Saturday shirt right there. Back to the main camp. My Henley. Oh God. I gotta unbutton a couple of these. The leisure. Yeah, I'm relaxing today. I'll just say about the Chargers news,
Starting point is 00:14:46 because everything else is speculation, but where as we stand right now, Quinton Johnston does need to be paid attention to. Yeah, yes. And that's our Quinton guy over there. The best part of Keenan Allen signing to the Chargers, should that happen, is I could never do that again. No, Mike drafted him in the last mock draft
Starting point is 00:15:04 and then reminded us again today, if you want to associate Quinton with a person here at the show, Mike's volunteering. That's, someone's gotta do it. If I. He was on pace for nine touchdowns last year, 9.1. Who was? Quinton Johnston.
Starting point is 00:15:18 Over 100 targets, nine touchdowns. You know, it was very. Is that, so he missed some games you're saying? Yes, he did. It was very sporadic, but the tot- So he missed some games, you're saying? Yes, he did miss a couple. It was very sporadic, but the totality of the season was better than you remember. It'd have been funny if he'd played a full 17 and you said he's on pace for what he got.
Starting point is 00:15:33 That's what I wasn't sure. I didn't remember if he was missing time. If he played a full 17 and I said he was on pace for 9.1, that'd be super weird. He was at a 23 and a half percent target for a route run, which is very strong. I think he should be a my guy, Mike. That's what I'm hearing.
Starting point is 00:15:48 I'll put him on the board for you. He should be ignored. But I still don't think he is very good. What's the in-between of ignored and paid attention to? Glance that? Darn El Moony. OK. You went with the name?
Starting point is 00:16:04 You went with the person? Yeah. Alright, Anthony Richardson is believed to have been recovered and starting to throw again? Okay. Dude, that's aw- I- every quarterback I draft I want them to be able to throw. Goodness gracious. Jason is just- I'm here for one reason today. What are you doing? He unbuttoned the shirt, Mike. The point. Don't make me take it off. The point of this blurb was we were on reports of we didn't know if Richardson was gonna be ready
Starting point is 00:16:30 for training camp. And if Richardson's not there to start training camp, that is a huge head start for Daniel Jones. Albert Breyer believes Stefan Diggs is trending towards playing in week one. This is. That's very aggressive. That's also very important. Yes. People need to understand how bad the rest of the depth
Starting point is 00:16:47 chart is because Stefan Diggs can soak up targets. If you believe in Drake May in any capacity, you have to believe in Stefan Diggs in some capacity. That's my math equation in New England. It doesn't mean he's a super high draft pick. It just means he's kind of a sneaky draft pick. I don't disagree. it's just the injury, like the historical injury of the ACL,
Starting point is 00:17:11 research is it's a nine to 12 month recovery to return to a game, the end of August will be nine months. That's what I mean, it would be pretty aggressive. It would. It's not impossible. We saw him running routes. A while ago. Like two months ago. And he looked just like Keishan Boan booty who was running right next to him I will be currently surprised. I think that's very good Keishan booty is a very young athletic wide receiver
Starting point is 00:17:35 Okay, and so to be at that stage I'm a like I think right now Stefan Diggs is a clear value in the draft we they also have a good opening schedule We talked about that when we covered their division, but you're talking Raiders and Dolphins. Favored by three in week one, aren't they? They're playing the Raiders. Yeah, so look, Diggs was in our, I think, values list. We pulled him when we got conflicting reports
Starting point is 00:17:59 of his availability, but he's right on that edge. He's not the same Stefan Diggs. You can't put that into your, like a top 10 type of wide receiver but but he might not be drafted or very close to not drafted in a lot of leagues and big news TJ Watt has become the highest non-paid quarterback in NFL history. It's the second time that's happened for him. Three year, $123 million extension, 108 million guaranteed.
Starting point is 00:18:31 I like TJ Watt. I like to imagine that draft year, like the first round's almost over and the stealer's like, who do you want to take? I just take JJ's brother. I mean, TJ Watt. And then you're like, oh, hey, look, the other Watt is awesome.
Starting point is 00:18:50 Yeah, the questions around him was like, are you, he's 30? And is he worth $108 million? Yeah, this is. I mean, he kind of took a little step back last year. Did he? Yeah, I mean, he's a Saxon from 19 to 11. I mean, that's not like little step back last year. Did he? Yeah, I mean his sacks went from 19 to 11. I mean that's not like, 11 is great, but.
Starting point is 00:19:09 It's just giving that much money to his age. But he was 13, 14, 15, 22, 19, and then it's what you gotta do. I mean they're all in, so it's what he needed and they gave it to him and that's it for news. So we'll take a break and we'll jump into our divisional breakdown. Let's get divisional. Into the NFC, NFC South we go. Yes.
Starting point is 00:19:46 And we will talk through Tampa Bay in Atlanta and Carolina, New Orleans, look at the players, rookies, coaching changes, how their offenses, defenses have changed, offensive lines, and we'll give our take on how we think this division will play out, which I think, again, this is one where you could definitely see it going some different ways, and we'll start with, we'll start with Tampa Bay.
Starting point is 00:20:05 I mean, last year was the second year in a row that the NFC South title was not decided until the literal final week of the season. And it went to Tampa Bay, 10 and seven. Now they were, you know, very good for fantasy. Like the Baker story, Mike Evans, Godwin Welley was healthy, McMillan at times as a spot star,
Starting point is 00:20:26 Kate Otten at times, and then Bucky Irving. Like there were lots of fantasy storylines in Tampa Bay and you can go watch her Halloween show and see Jason dressed up as Laser Mayfield himself. This was a very fun, go ahead. Busted! Oh well, that's not the, I gave you the chance, Jay. Laser. And now you're chance, Jay. Laser.
Starting point is 00:20:46 And now you're busted, so... What is happening? He is... What'd you drink with lunch? Yeah, seriously. I had an Amino energy drink, and I'm feeling it. I've got so much energy. Look, they were 10 and seven,
Starting point is 00:20:59 but they were only three and five and one score games. So they weren't one of those teams that like kind of outkicked what it looked like they were supposed to do. They have hit the over on their Vegas win total in five of the last six years. And last year it was seven and a half, this year's nine and a half. They have the 10th easiest strength of schedule
Starting point is 00:21:16 according to our friend at the show, Warren Sharp, in his breakdown of the season. They were number four in points per game, number three in yards per game. I mean Baker was amazing. They had a top five quarterback. They had a top 15 running back in Bucky with another top 24 in Mr. Rashad white Rashad white made it into the top 24. They had a top 12 wide receiver. They had a top 12 tight end and only the 2012 Patriots can match those numbers. Yeah, Rashad White kinda. He did.
Starting point is 00:21:46 Yeah, he feels like he didn't exist, but he did a little bit. And they're the first team in NFL history to complete 70 plus percent of their passes, average five plus yards per catch. This was an amazing, amazing offense. And that's a big win total, nine and a half for them going into this year.
Starting point is 00:22:05 Todd Bowles, I believe he got an extension this off season, and it's going to be interesting. They added a very highly touted first round rookie wide receiver to the mix, and then they paid Chris Godwin this off season. So in my opinion, they're one of the more loaded offenses in football. And so when you talk about the possible outcomes
Starting point is 00:22:31 of the season, biggest question maybe being, can Baker work his magic again with a third offensive coordinator in the last three years? I mean, the Buccaneers are the the example of why hiring a defensive head coach can be difficult. Yeah. Because you have a great, we all love Todd Bowles, we all think he's a really good head coach. He had a tough time in New York because it's the Jets, that's why. But often as a coordinator it was Dan Kanellis, then it was Liam Cohen, And now? The Grizzler. Josh, Grizzard.
Starting point is 00:23:06 Grizzard. Grizzard. We saw, allegedly, people are saying it Grizzard, but no. No, thank you. No, thank you. We deny your pronunciation. Yeah, we have a show to run here.
Starting point is 00:23:18 And how you were born, what you're named, really irrelevant to us. This team adding Iguca is, it's absurd. I don't know if, I think with the Godwin contract, it was even more. I don't mean absurd in like, I can't believe. It was more surprising. I'm like, as in like this, this trio of wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:23:36 Like an abundance of riches? Yeah, of if, I, will Egbuka be a week one starter? It might take some time. I know McMillan had, youan had his end of season run, but ceiling wise, McMillan is not Egbuka. And if you're seriously running out, those three guys of Evans, Godwin, Egbuka, it will be very, very difficult to stop
Starting point is 00:24:00 any sort of passing attack. So Baker, let's start there with, you know, you can say all the great things about how the offense performed, you got a change at OC, but you have all these weapons. He had eight finishes inside the top five at the position. He was amazing for fantasy players. Yeah, he was, 4540.
Starting point is 00:24:18 So then it's like, you know, I've said it, I've put it on record before, I don't like looking at all of his history in averages to determine Baker now in Tampa Bay because I think he's, he has leveled up several levels and it is just different situations, different weapons, but obviously putting up, what was the touchdown total? 40.
Starting point is 00:24:42 Yeah, putting up 40 is just, you know, take Baker out of the equation, just look at averages. 41. 41 passing touchdowns? Oh my goodness, I apologize. 41. Oh, then I think he can get to 40. Okay. No.
Starting point is 00:24:57 But I mean, it was 28 the year before in Tampa. Which was his career high before 41. It was his career high. I know what you're saying. But I think mid-30s is very, very, like I'd bet on it. Mid-30 touchdown? Yes. Okay.
Starting point is 00:25:12 I'd bet on 35. Because he's early 30s, age-wise. I need a button to hit, I don't even know what button to hit. Here's the thing, you can say, okay, I don't buy into the early Baker career stuff because he had different wide receivers, different poorly run organizations. That stuff is true. However, he played 89 games before this last year for a number of different teams and offenses and offensive coordinators. And through that time, his touchdown rate was 4.6%, which is basically just – don't just take his history, take
Starting point is 00:25:49 the history of all quarterbacks. That's basically what the NFL does. It's a very normal rate. Will he be above 4.6? Yeah, probably. I mean, he was 4.9% the previous year with, you know, Evans and Godwin and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he jumped to 7.2% last year. And it is not uncommon for this to happen for quarterbacks throughout a career to have a year with an outlier touchdown percentage. This is like the easiest regression to spot coming. And so I, you know, mid-30s, I'm fine with that. I think he can. 7.2 is extreme, for sure. Yes, and his. And 4.9 was a bit low for, I mean, he's had 5.6, 5.3.
Starting point is 00:26:30 The truth of the matter is, I think what I'm pushing back against a little bit, and I'm doing this with a lot of these regression candidates, is Baker Mayfield, this was the storyline of last offseason. We did this already. We did it. We did the Baker Mayfield regression storyline
Starting point is 00:26:49 all off season. Different offensive coordinator. He was over 4,000 yards and he never done that before. And we got the other side of the coin is all I'm saying. And so I think it's very reasonable. Like I don't see anything in this offense. Great offensive line, great running game, great passing game, amazing weapons,
Starting point is 00:27:04 depth when weapons go down. Baker lost weapons last great running game, great passing game, amazing weapons, depth when weapons go down. Baker lost weapons last year and still put up those numbers, right? Godwin was gone in the middle of the season. So, I think that Baker, you know, I don't think he finishes at quarterback three again. No.
Starting point is 00:27:17 But I don't think he finishes at 10. I think he finishes 10 or lower, personally. And part of that is because we know the touchdowns will come down. He's not throwing 40 touchdowns this year. So take away five of them. That's still a lot of touchdowns. If he scores 35 passing touchdowns, then he'll be among the league leaders. But that's a big drop in fantasy points, but then it's not just that, it's his rushing.
Starting point is 00:27:42 I mean, he had 378 rushing yards, almost like double his career high. His career high before that was 165, and it's not like the attempts changed. He had a year with 54 rushing attempts, he had a year, the year prior, with 62 rushing attempts, more than he had this last year, but somehow he went from 163 rushing yards to 378.
Starting point is 00:28:02 He did not get more athletic, he had a bunch of big runs, it was great, awesome, fantastic. It was really fun. But it not get more athletic. He had a bunch of big runs. It was great, awesome. It was really fun. But it just feels like if I had to say, well, who is Baker? How does he run? What can he do on the ground? I'm definitely going to bet with what he's done throughout his career than last year's, you know. Well, the year before he was a quarterback 10 with all the lower numbers. Right.
Starting point is 00:28:22 So, I mean, I think that's why I have him between 10 and 3. I think around 10 is very fair. If he plays 17 games he should be a quarterback 1 but I you know right now he's being drafted. Quarterback 7. Yeah. It's perfect. I think it's a I think it's an okay fair shot. It's just the where I would push on the regression is we I won't argue that it has Baker seemingly really improved or or you could even just actually he's returning the promise of what he was which was the number one overall pick and then he and then he overcame the circumstances so we're seeing the real Baker but we see Hall of Fame quarterbacks
Starting point is 00:29:05 have these types of seasons where they're throwing up in the, you know, the seven percentile per attempt for touchdown rate, and then they just, they drop at least a full percentage, and these are guys who will go right into the Hall of Fame. The best thing we can do though is approach it from the perspective on all these quarterbacks of what are your highest odds of getting success at the position. Yes.
Starting point is 00:29:29 Because those variants for everybody. But not just highest odds of general success, but you have to add with that highest outcome of success. Like can they be a league winner? Not just can they beat quarterbacks? He was in A, inconsistency, 64% of the time above 17 points per game. Week in and week out he was a valuable fantasy player
Starting point is 00:29:47 and I do believe that's what he will be again this year. Okay. But look, what that regression looks like, touchdown wise, all we've said is what they've added this off season. You're taking a Baker Mayfield that didn't have a Bucca or Godwin. Would you rather have Baker in the sixth or Jordan Love in the ninth?
Starting point is 00:30:06 I'll take Baker. Yeah, I feel very, very safe with Baker. I think he's shown us the last two years. And great schedule, great offensive line. So I feel very safe with Baker in the sixth. I think it's perfect price, QB seven, and I'm not intimidated by offensive coordinator changes. Yeah, I mean, that is normal for Baker.
Starting point is 00:30:26 We like Bucky, but Bucky is the RB8 off the board right now. I feel like we could get stuck in Tampa Bay arguments for the rest of the show, because, you know, I'm a big Bucky fan. I think we're all fans. Yeah, we're all big Bucky fans. His draft price is a little scary. Not that we don't have him ranked very close. I'm like a quick look.
Starting point is 00:30:51 It seems like I have him at nine, Andy is at nine, Jason's at 11. So we're all just as a group, a little bit behind consensus. And he is... He's in a tier right now on our UDK where he shares the tier with Chase Brown, Josh Jacobs, Kyron Williams, and Jonathan Taylor.
Starting point is 00:31:09 It feels right. But he's the highest, most expensive. Yeah, and that's the thing. Which is why it becomes a challenge for all of us to draft him. That's a perfect snapshot of his situation. Yeah, clip that. Clip that, that was good.
Starting point is 00:31:19 There you go, so. That was good work. Rashad White pretty much being ignored in drafts, 10th round pick. Which, you shouldn't. Yeah, in double digit rounds, I mean, Rashad White is not their future. He's probably going to be gone after this year. And he's going to feel so gross to draft him.
Starting point is 00:31:34 But this is a guy who is absolutely involved, had over 200 opportunities last year. We brought it up, he was the running back 24. He's not great, but he is. He's the kind of player, there's a dude in our league that just drafts the nastiest dudes in the late rounds. Yeah, he does. And they always provide value, and Rochelle White fits right in there.
Starting point is 00:31:54 Yeah. How do you see the wide receiver room panning out, Jason, with Mike Evans, right now a late third, Godwin in the sixth, Egbuka and McMillan share an 11th round. You've got Kate Otten who did have a really necessary portion of the year. He's only a Mr. Necessary though.
Starting point is 00:32:15 But how do you see the wide outs? Yeah, I mean, Chris Godwin was essentially the alpha before he went down to injury, but I've still got Mike Evans clearly ahead. I want more information on Chris Godwin coming back. Ironically, my target share for both of those guys is identical. For who? For Evans and Godwin.
Starting point is 00:32:33 Okay. But the valuable targets, if they're both going to get 130 targets, they're going to be very different for Chris Godwin than for Mike Evans. I'd rather have the double-digit touchdown upside upside of Evans the downfield, you know big explosive plays We have Godwin. He's been hurt before and his return from injury was really depressing But then I feel like we're getting that wash that scare washed away by the contract this offseason So and his ADP is ADP is the risk is already in there. It's six round in the sixth round Like I struggle six rounds. So you taking, Baker or Godwin?
Starting point is 00:33:09 I mean, I don't know. It's a trick question, Jameson Williams is in the sixth. Yeah, that is a trick. I personally struggle with the Evans versus Godwin because it was not a, they're going back and forth in those, when Chris Godwin was doing what he was doing at the beginning of the year. The first seven weeks, Chris Godwin had put up, you know, he's averaging nine
Starting point is 00:33:31 targets. So seven receptions and 82 yards per week. That is what Chris Godwin was averaging in that exact same time period. I'll cut one game out because Mike Evans got hurt also in week seven, but he was averaging four for 51. This was not a, we're 1A, 1B. It was the Chris Godwin show. But if you just think about it, I mean, all the years that Godwin's been a part of Tampa Bay, Mike Evans, wide receiver, eight, 12, 10, eight. It doesn't matter how it happens. But it's a very large gap in for a small time period of their no no no no they're their ADP oh yeah yeah I thought you were saying a large gap between their production when they were
Starting point is 00:34:14 playing together I'm both both of those things but he Mike if you had to bet your house uh-huh and everything you say for your children's future college on Mike Evans getting a thousand yards or not getting a thousand yards this season. Of course I'll take the thousand yards. But is that like, which he barely surpassed. You're making me talk bad about Mike Evans right now and I don't appreciate that. My point is you shouldn't. He's been great. This team manufactured him the
Starting point is 00:34:46 thousand yards to keep that streak going if you remember that at the end of the season. The final couple weeks they did. He missed a handful of games and it seemed like he was not gonna be able to get there and they're like... I don't think I'm drafting Godwin. Yeah are you? I don't think I'm taking him in the sixth round. I'm fine with Evans but you've got Iqbuqa that represents a huge portion of the future and Godwin could start really slow. And maybe not have, I mean, Liam Cohen's not there. Liam Cohen was the difference between Canales and Liam Cohen was that magic beginning for Godwin. So I don't know. That is very, and we have like his particular injury, we have seen players recently poor like performing poorly right when they came back from it and we've seen players who get that that
Starting point is 00:35:31 same injury and they're just fine so it's do you care more about your family or Mike Evans oh my Kevin's yeah makes sense they start against Atlanta in Atlanta and their favorite in week one and then at Houston then the Jets then Philadelphia so should be should be an interesting reroll of this offense again and the offensive line ranked sixth they they are gonna be without Tristan Wirfs for a little while right they? They are. So that's worth mentioning. Atlanta. Worth mentioning. Yeah, worth mentioning. I can't believe you let that one go.
Starting point is 00:36:09 The way that this podcast is going? On a Saturday of mine. Jason is controlling the vibe of this podcast very carefully. Buttons, if he could unbutton anymore, he would. You're lucky I didn't wear a full button up shirt today. I mean, he would be, I'm surprised he doesn't grab scissors and start cutting that thing off.
Starting point is 00:36:26 Atlanta was 8-9. We're going to move on to Atlanta. They were 7-6 in one score games. They have not had a 500 or better season since 2017. And yet, they are projected for 7-1-2 games. Yeah, they're not projected for... I mean, last year they were projected for nine and a half in the Kirk Cudson's experiment. Well that, that was a bad experiment.
Starting point is 00:36:50 It didn't work. His mobility after the injury, then he, I mean he had the Achilles recovery, but then he had a shoulder injury and he played even worse after that. In fact, he started much better. There were six and three to start the year. Then he collapsed, was throwing interceptions
Starting point is 00:37:09 all over the place, passing yards went down, it looked like he couldn't throw at all. And there have been some resurgent rumors, by the way, of cousins to Cleveland yet again. Oh my gosh. Which was my original prediction was, but I had all but given up on it because they drafted 16 quarterbacks in the draft.
Starting point is 00:37:27 But Michael Penick Jr. took over. They averaged double the points per game when he was under center over the last three weeks. They didn't win those games. They were one and two. But... And as a reminder, because I know a lot, we're gonna talk about those three games
Starting point is 00:37:43 with how it related to Drake London and Penick's and Bichon because that's the future, but those three games were against three of the worst defenses in the league, the Giants and the Panthers. The Washington commanders were in there, they're average. Their strength of schedule according to Warren Sharp is the fourth easiest in football and yet just seven and a half wins in a softer division. So that is at least a little bit of a, a nod to all the doubts and questions that we're going to bring up here when talking about Atlanta, which, you know, it begins with the quarterback.
Starting point is 00:38:16 This team didn't perform on offense the way they wanted to last year. Bottom third, um, Zach Robinson came over with a lot of fanfare from the McVeigh universe and kind of gets us a slight pass with just what happened with Kirk Cousins but you know. Yeah I will judge him harshly after this season. Yeah and you're gonna have a top 10 quarterback pick. You better put a show on. Yeah, the pick was, I mean, when the pick happened of Michael Pinnix, it was ridiculed everywhere. But it seems like maybe, I know we've talked about this.
Starting point is 00:38:55 I stand by it. You can't really fix a mistake with a mistake, but it wasn't an insurance policy that they needed quickly. They have a top 10 offensive line ranking on PFF heading into the new year. That's great for Bijon. Yeah, Bijon is, he's a player that we're not gonna have to. We can't let Jason talk about Bijon anymore.
Starting point is 00:39:17 We don't have to discuss that length. I mean, from week six on, he scored 17 plus fantasy points in all but one game. It was outrageous. He was everything that you hoped he could be. And he belongs at the tippy top of your draft. If you wanna take him one on one, that's fine. That's totally fine.
Starting point is 00:39:34 Good offensive line, peak of his career for running backs. He's a game script proof back. If they get down, they throw him the ball. If they're up, they run the clock out. So you love that. One of the true workhorses, they throw him the ball. If they're up, they run the clock out. So you love that. One of the true workhorses, an A inconsistency. There's literally nothing to criticize with Bijon. When it comes to pass catchers,
Starting point is 00:39:54 it's kind of like Drake London and then what do you have? Like is Kyle Pitts even worth bringing up on a fantasy football show anymore? Darnell Mooney kind of slots in as what he is, right? Like he's a wide receiver too that's probably better than his draft spot. Yeah, he's in the 10th round, wide receiver, 49. He'll outproduce that.
Starting point is 00:40:14 Michael Pennex only completed 55% of his passes. 55! You know, they've talked a lot about not changing him. If you've seen recent comments from the offensive staff, it's like, we like the things that make Michael Pinnock special, which is taking chances. Oh, that dude airs it out. Airing it out.
Starting point is 00:40:35 So that's gonna come with some good and bad. Also, their defense is going to dictate a lot of things. They were not a great defense. So, you know, where are you from the fantasy perspective on this team? Like, is Drake London, he's drafted so highly, he's a top of the second round pick, but I haven't taken him in a mock. And I don't know if you can, I mean, can you talk me into why I need to be just ultra confident in Drake London regardless of how much Michael Pennex Jr. we've seen. Yeah, I mean, he is...
Starting point is 00:41:08 The reason you should be ultra confident is, like you said, their defense is not good, and he has no other wide receivers to really truly compete with. Darnel Moon is on the other side, great, but he proved that he could be kind of an alpha wide receiver. He was the wide receiver six last year in fantasy, and that was with the old busted version of Kirk Cousins. So let's say Michael Penick's- It's pretty juiced from that Carolina game in week 18.
Starting point is 00:41:32 Sure, he had an incredible 187- 10 for 187 and two for 35 points. That'll jump you up a couple spots. Yeah, but the counter argument to that is that was one of the Michael Penick's games. So you're going, oh, okay. So Michael Peninnix is willing to just throw him the ball a ton. Even before that, you're on target taking that crazy game out, which is dumb to just take out his best game.
Starting point is 00:41:56 But without his best game, he's still on 100 target pace, 1100 yards. Target or catch? Reception, sorry, 147 target pace. If you're saying he's 100 target pace. You should not draft him. So he's a young in his prime Alpha wide receiver with no competition for targets and a bad defense like I'm all about pretty potent Kyle Pitts is yards per outrun over the last four years have dropped every single year He he had 38% of his snaps in line three times his rate from 2023. He just, it's like the air's let out of the balloon at this point. It's hard to talk about. He's the oldest 24-year-old on planet Earth.
Starting point is 00:42:37 He's Greg Oden. Ah, that's a good comp. That's how it feels. He's like, and like Greg Oden, he's just, he's on his way to being just a trivia question like one of the biggest bus in a long time Is there any help for him this season? I mean you just literally talked about them having nobody but Drake London There is always hope I mean that's because he's 24 and that's how he gets. Yeah, he's 24 He was the fourth pick in the NFL draft like I got this candy bar Yeah, let me ask you this is he in a contract year, I don't know NFL draft. This is like I got this candy bar over here. A football athlete. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:05 Let me ask you this. Is he in a contract here? I don't know. Is he? Kyle? I think so. He is, unfortunately. Yeah, there he is.
Starting point is 00:43:15 All right, baby. So now that motivation is there. This is a fool me, couldn't topple times situation, four times. I tried to figure out what the phrase is. It's couldn't topple We'll take a break. We'll talk Panthers. Oh, by the way, they start the season against Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Carolina and Washington Are you surprised that their wind totals at seven and a half no I've been higher Even in this division. No that easy of a schedule? When I first looked at the Falcons here, I saw their win total at 9.5 and I was blown away.
Starting point is 00:43:50 But I was looking at last year's win total projections. Because you expected it to be lower? Yes, because I expected it to be right. They're not favored in a game until week 8. Yeah, that'll dictate some things. See, that's why you need cousins gone. I'm serious. You can't have them on that bench. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:44:05 This is too, he's too- When they start losing games. Yeah, he's too experienced of a player and like, look, if those numbers are accurate, if it was a lot of shoulder issue situation, I mean, weeks one through nine, they were playing well. They were scoring 25 points a game. Didn't he have a game where he threw 500 yards
Starting point is 00:44:21 that were like five touchdowns? There was a prime time game that was awesome. Yeah, that overtime game he won. So like, you can't have him there if you want Michael Pennings to be your future. I don't know if Kyle, Kyle, do you want Cousins going? Are you on the mic? I'm just sad.
Starting point is 00:44:36 Okay. You're sad for Kirk? Just sad in general. Just sad as a Falcons fan. 72% completion percentage, four touchdowns, 509 passing yards and that was against Tampa Bay. Yeah, where do they start the year? So we'll take a break, be right back. Well I think a lot of people would have expected us to not be talking about Carolina yet because
Starting point is 00:45:07 Carolina was one of the worst teams in football. But they got to play in a division with the Saints. But here they are. They're the third team we get to talk about. Five and 12 Carolina. Last year, the win total, five and a half. So they were right on it. You see that point differential from last year?
Starting point is 00:45:25 What was it? Negative 193. Ah. Here's their last seven years win total, seven, five. This is how many they accomplished, not Vegas totals. Seven, five, five, five, seven, two, five. So Kyle, as a Falcons fan, you gotta feel much better. Yeah, do you feel good now Kyle?
Starting point is 00:45:51 It's still a terrible division. Yeah, yeah, they also allowed the most points of all time 534 it was a dream to play against the Carolina Panthers defense because they give up the most points you talk about the defense that ranked 32nd points allowed 32nd yards 32nd and second in EPA, and 30 second in EPA per rush? I am. Yeah. They are projected for one more win this year, six and a half. I am actually really excited for this team. Because this is exactly, not exactly, let me phrase it better, their defenses is going to stink.
Starting point is 00:46:24 Maybe they're not dead last again historically though allowing the most points of all time, but they will not be able to turn that thing around. Not to an upper echelon defense for sure. Meanwhile after Bryce Young came back from the benching, whatever happened, Bryce Young was so so much better as a player and as a quarterback. From week 12 on, Carolina averaged 25 points per game, that's 12th in the NFL. Bryce was seventh in fantasy points per drop back. He was second in quarterback scrambles. He was like, he looked like a completely
Starting point is 00:47:01 different person. And then their first pick is Ted O'Rourke McMillan, who you can't be, you know, Jamar Chase excited about McMillan, but I think that he'll be a true number one in the NFL. And that lets their last year's first run pick, Xavier LeGette, go be just a number two wide receiver. Which is really what he is. Yeah, which is really what he is.
Starting point is 00:47:26 And the canalist offense is going to be able to run. No problem. So you give this team a better improving offense with a horrifically bad defense. You're saying the fantasy. This is the combination where you find some just stinky treasures for fantasy football. Some stinky treasures. Well, you've got to wash them for fantasy football. Some stinky treasures.
Starting point is 00:47:45 You gotta wash them off, man. I get it. I know what you're saying. It's not coming out pristine. Name the treasure. Chuba is a treasure? Chuba is interesting. He's a fourth round, late fourth, maybe early fifth,
Starting point is 00:47:57 because nobody wants a stink of Carolina. I like McMillan. I think that where he is going in drafts is... Late six. Is a place that I'm happy to draft a top 10 NFL draft talent. And I think that Bryce Young really could surprise and not jump into a top five situation, but jump into a place where we're all making the jokes
Starting point is 00:48:21 in week six, like, oh man, Bryce Young, he's still doing it. Can we count on him? And then by the end of the year, we're like, look at Bryce Young. Jason, we gotta get Mike a third my guy because we already know Bryce Young and Quinton Johnson are his first two. So we'll find the third.
Starting point is 00:48:34 We'll find the third one soon. Doudle? Probably from the next team. Doudle is on this team. Doudle's on this team. Yeah, you would never do two Panthers as a my guy. I'm sorry, my mistake. So just, it's a combination that I like.
Starting point is 00:48:44 I don't mind having optimism because I think this is an easy situation a my guy. I'm sorry, my mistake. So just, it's a combination that I like. I don't mind having Optimism, because I think this is an easy situation to root for. I love Dave Canales. I'd love to see Bryce Young kind of save his career, which he started to do. What I'm saying, like, often we'll have a team like this, and in the divisional breakdown, we'll be like, this team stinks.
Starting point is 00:49:01 They're gonna stink again. Like, I think we got a chance here with Carolina. Yeah I'm having Kyle look up some numbers because I'm trying to find a really easy way to communicate the level of turnover that happens at the NFL level year over year and quantify it in a simple way. We're kind of looking into some ways to do that but one of the stats that jumped out was like 23% of NFL teams on a yearly basis improve their win total by three or more games. So a quarter of the league improves their win total
Starting point is 00:49:29 by three or more games. That's an interesting reality in the NFL where you can't come in here and just say what was will be. It's not, there's so much parity at the NFL. Yeah, that's what I was gonna say. It's easily among all major sports, has the most parity. You always see teams go from last place to first place in a division every single year.
Starting point is 00:49:51 This is a very soft division. The Buccaneers look kind of entrenched at the top. They've been there for a while and they clearly have the best roster. But the next three, they're all pretty soft. Even LeGette is just, he is completely abandoned. Correct. Yeah, and look, I love Chuba, I really do.
Starting point is 00:50:12 He defied the odds, right? You don't like running backs on teams that don't win games, and yet you like this running back on a team that doesn't win games, and then they went and gave him a contract, and then we know that, you know, Jonathan Brooks is gone for the year and like Chuba's workload is going to be there. You know, will Dowdell spell him?
Starting point is 00:50:31 Yeah, but so did other players last year. I think the workload for him, I mean, this was the RB seven for a stretch from weeks three to 16 last year. He can handle a ton of opportunities. I think he passes the eye test when I watch him like. On the ground he does. On the ground he does. On the ground, yes.
Starting point is 00:50:46 His work in the receiving game leaves a lot to be desired and that would be the... If I had any hesitancy drafting Chuba where he is going, that would be it. I'm not going to proclaim that Rico Dowdell is just so much better at that part of the game than him, but Chuba was Quite bad at it this past year Jason ceiling for Ted Arowa McMillan Fantasy finish wise the things go right ceiling if everything goes right and he's the alpha one would be like wide receiver 15 And he's at 34 in drafts right now I
Starting point is 00:51:19 Think the person that's gonna play a spoiler for Ted Ar' McMillan as well as Xavier LeGate. No, no, no. Yeah. Adam, wake up. No. Look, Adam Thielen was injured for part of the year. Bryce Young was benched for part of the year. When those two were back together on the field, I don't know if you guys even remember because
Starting point is 00:51:39 it felt like the Panthers were irrelevant. You kind of moved on. But the last seven games they played together, Adamielin was on pace for 97 receptions, 1,228 yards and 10 touchdowns. He was averaging 13 and a half fantasy points per game. I know he's- I have him in Dicey, you want him? No.
Starting point is 00:51:55 Sure, I proclaim he will not do that. Anything, literally anything you want. Okay. I don't care. It will- You agree, if I can make you an official offer you will accept it? It can't involve any of your players. Okay, deal. All right. He was it. Like, Ligette wasn't ready to be a number one. I don't know that
Starting point is 00:52:16 Ligette will ever be ready to be a number one, but I guess if anyone's gonna mess it up for McMillan it would be Thielen, but I don't think Thielen's gonna mess it up for him. At Jacksonville in week one, at Arizona in up for McMillan, it would be Thielen, but I don't think Thielen's gonna mess it up for him. At Jacksonville in week one, at Arizona in week two, then Atlanta, then New England. So that's the start, and we still have a team to talk about in this division. All right.
Starting point is 00:52:40 I expect you to be a man of your word, Andy. Did you send something? Yes, offer has been made. Okay. Mike, introduce our next team while I go take a look at man of your word, Andy. Did you send something? Yes, offer has been made. Okay. Mike, introduce our next team while I go take a look at this sweet Adam Thielen offer. Okay. Yep, be a man of your word.
Starting point is 00:52:51 You agreed if it did not include one of my players. What is it? You would accept the trade. Is it like a dollar of fab? I mean, in front of hundreds of thousands of people. I didn't think about the fab. I'll be honest with you. You agreed to a trade. Are you one of those guys that backs out of trades that you think about the fab. I'll be honest with you. You agreed to a trade.
Starting point is 00:53:05 Are you one of those guys that backs out of trades that you agreed to? Not with normal people, but with you, I think I might. Oh my goodness, wow. Get him, Foot Clan. You could've got him, Jay. You could've sent over. Hold on, I'll make you a counter.
Starting point is 00:53:17 We'll get this done. Oh, okay, it's the New Orleans Saints. Last year they were five and 12. Last year their projected win total was seven and a half and remember those first two weeks with Derek Carr and Rashid Shaheed and it was holy crap look at what it was so exciting look at what this team is doing Jason was gonna have to shave his head the yeah yeah we had we had the shave ahead meter we had a beat down of the Dallas Cowboys in week two and then they lost seven straight games after that.
Starting point is 00:53:47 Yeah, it was a five and 12 season that just turned sour quickly, and now Derek Carr is gone. Now, what's incredible is, you know, they had a seven and a half win total last year. This year it's at five and a half, and that's with the third easiest schedule on the books, according to Warren Sharp.
Starting point is 00:54:05 It's a time of change for New Orleans, a time of they hope rebirth and rebuilding and a new quarterback and a new head coach, Kelly Moore taking over, who's been very good on the offensive side, something that they weren't last year. But rebirth does not normally come alongside like Brandon Cooks and Alvin Camara. Yeah. Like aged veterans. Remember when I was talking about the Panthers of like we might come on here and just dunk on a team? I mean it is hard to be optimistic about the Saints. He has upped the offer to 2FAB so far. I doubled my offer. I doubled an offer that you already said you would accept. A 2028 third. That's what I'm looking for.
Starting point is 00:54:43 The last possible, worst possible pick you can trade. I just, I know. I might need to start it, so I'm not taking it. You might want the fab to grab players, and later in the year you're gonna regret having not taken it. I'm not taking off season fab though. You only have off season fab right now. Ooh, you gotcha. I need in season fab.
Starting point is 00:55:02 We'll talk about it. I'm still a man of my word if they take it for one fab at any point in the future. Is that true? I don't know. I don't know if it's true or not. Well, the Saints defense was not good. They gave up the most rushing yards
Starting point is 00:55:16 that they've ever given up since the year I was born, 1984. So start your running backs against the Saints was the story last year. It's gonna be a whole new scheme and there's gonna be a whole lot of questions. Like Chris Olave has come up in so many mock drafts because he's one of the few players on the Saints that you can talk about with any sort of potential fantasy outcome, but it's gonna become reliant on a new quarterback, Tyler Shuck most likely, rookie second round quarterback. Yeah, I mean fill it out.
Starting point is 00:55:45 Doctor. Doctor Shuck? What? He went to school, he better be a doctor. It's six years of school. Six years of college. Is this a Tommy boy joke? Basically, yeah.
Starting point is 00:55:57 Is this a Tommy? I mean, if he's not a doctor or a lawyer, he's gotta have a masters, right? I mean, two years at Oregon, three years at Texas Tech. Dr. Shuck. Yeah, Dr. Shuck. Okay. Well, the quarterback situation is either Dr. Shuck or it's Spencer Rattler. So it's Dr. Shuck because we've seen Spencer Rattler.
Starting point is 00:56:20 Or Jake Hayner. I mean, there's like, there is... So I'm gonna be honest, I'll put myself out there. It is very, very rare for a player to go the path of Tyler Shuck and succeed, almost impossible. I wanted- The Brandon Weeden path? Yeah, exactly, exactly. Brandon Weeden tried to do it, that's like the best comp. We're talking about Brandon Weeden. To be fair, not a lot of people try to do it.
Starting point is 00:56:44 That is true. So you don't have a lot of people try to do it. That is true. Because when you're good, you come out of college and you get drafted by the NFL. You don't stay there forever. He was injured a lot. And I went into the scouting process and I will admit, I don't believe I am the best scout of quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:56:58 He has a master's degree. Two of them. Thank goodness. Oh no, two regular degrees and a master's. Yeah, he just kept going. He's piling it up. He was really working on that backup plan. I wanted to really hate him. I like Tyler Schuck. I think the dude can play. Coming in with experience lately in the NFL has worked.
Starting point is 00:57:19 You had a couple of these players, like Jaden Daniels was one of those guys who wow he was in college forever you know he was throwing passes to Brandon Iuke back at you know ASU and it turns out a lot of the time to develop was good for him and I I think Tyler Shuck could surprise so when we're talking about what if I give you this statistic though that since 2014 we have 24 day to quarterback selected and per our research we have three of note for fantasy football. Jalen Hurd is obviously the the smashing success and that is Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo. Yeah no I mean the odds are there are so many things against if you just look at like data points of success yeah and if we just wanna be completely
Starting point is 00:58:08 spreadsheet warriors, which a lot of times I'm happy to be just that, there's no chance. It's like a 90% against Tyler Shuck working. But if Tyler Shuck is just good, if he's actually good, he was injured every single one of those years. There's a reason, he never really got the opportunity to play a full season in college until year six. And then he was great.
Starting point is 00:58:29 If you're kind of good, this is the worst situation you could be in. Bottom third offensive line, lack of trustworthy pass catchers, because I don't put a lobby in the trustworthy category right now. And a running game that you really aren't sure what you're gonna get out of it,
Starting point is 00:58:46 because you got a tough offensive line. Like I just struggle to see how this season goes different than we expect. So are you not feeling good about Alvin Kamara, RB 16? Alvin Kamara has proven that he can kinda just. Catch a million passes. As long as he's on the field, which he will be, he just accumulates fantasy points,
Starting point is 00:59:04 albeit slowly with small chunks and half a point per reception or whatever the case may be. So I'm fine with Kamara, especially love him in full PPRs, fourth round pick in full PPR leagues. I can deal with that. And look, if you have me bet on a wide receiver, it's gonna be Olave,
Starting point is 00:59:21 but that doesn't mean that it's impossible for Rashid Jaheed to have a better fantasy season than Olavi, for Olavi to get knocked out due to injury. Like it's just, we're at this point now with Olavi that you're, like all the peripherals are not exciting for him. And then you've got the injuries. And so you've just, the shine is off.
Starting point is 00:59:41 Is it being discounted enough in the price? I don't know. I don't know if the wide receiver 26 off the board is enough of a discount to make me feel like, like Mike, you almost took him in one round of our mock and you waited till the next round to take him. Oh, remember that? Yeah, yeah. You were going to think you thought about taking him. You didn't take him. He came back
Starting point is 00:59:59 to you. Like I think that will be a lot of a lot of a lot of drafts. And if he, if he slips. Was that the pick you regretted at the end? It just because of my particular build of that Deandre Swift won a couple of picks after and I was like, oh man, that this team really could have used. Is there any chance Joanne Johnson is a sneaky player this year because of the question marks? I am so happy that you brought it up. Is that your third my guy? And I didn't have to. There it is. there it is.
Starting point is 01:00:26 Joann Johnson, Bryce Young, Quentin Johnston. Here, let's have a fun thing to talk about for the New Orleans Saints. So, Kellen Moore has taken over for this team. He is an offensive coach. Joann Johnson, if you don't know who he is, he is the tight end for the New Orleans Saints who just signed a three year, $30 million dollar their deal in the offseason. So he's not a nobody. He's also had some,
Starting point is 01:00:51 you know, stints where he was a real startable fantasy tight end. But Kellen Moore is in. Kellen Moore's offense has often given us just goodness from the slot position. Now it's an embarrassing name of riches when you list it off like, hey, Devontae Smith moves into the slot. He's got five touchdowns in that area, those fourth most in the NFL from the slot. You had Keenan Allen, averaged the most slot receptions per game. You had C.D. Lamb lead the NFL slot receiving yard.
Starting point is 01:01:21 So obviously, Jawan Johnson is not those guys. But he led the team in slot routes and slot recept yards. So obviously, Jawan Johnson's not those guys, but he led the team in slot routes and slot receptions last year, and we have gone over who are the wide receivers here, like Rashid and Olave should be outside wide receivers. There's a chance that Jawan Johnson plays a lot in the slot. Every bad team gets the football, you know? Like to get offensive possessions. And you know, I just threw it out there as like a deep sleeper. Yeah, you know I love me some Jawan Johnson. You've always believed.
Starting point is 01:01:53 They play Arizona in week one, likely with a rookie under center, then San Francisco, Seattle, and Buffalo, Seattle and Buffalo on the road. Yeah, that's a rough start, man. That's a rough, rough start. But we expect that from New Orleans this year. So, here we are at the end of the breakdown show trying to predict the division in order. What do you got for me? Do you want me to go first? I mean, do you guys want to
Starting point is 01:02:19 go? I can start it because I know what mine is. I'm going Tampa Bay at the top. I just think they are the best team. Then we're gonna go Carolina Panthers second. I'm gonna put the Falcons in third, and I will put the Saints at the bottom. Yeah, I hate what I'm gonna say, because I want something to be different,
Starting point is 01:02:42 but it does to me feel really obvious what happened last year. He's gonna crush it up and throw it up in the air and just bathe in that chalk. Tampa Bay will finish first in this division. I think the next best team is the Falcons, followed by... Carolina and New Orleans.
Starting point is 01:03:01 Yes. Yeah, I'm with you. Yeah, I mean, as chalky as it gets, but sometimes there's a reason. Of all the divisions we have talked about yet so far, though, this is the one where we can come back and be like, whoops. Definitely.
Starting point is 01:03:15 I mean, look, two straight years. Two straight years, they didn't settle it until the week 18. Yeah. And they have done this. I know Tampa Bay's, like, since the Brady trade, like, they've kind of figured some things out, but before that, like this division would just flip-flop who would win.
Starting point is 01:03:29 Atlanta is the surprise division winner for me. I mean, that would be the one. Okay. Because I think they have enough personnel, they did enough on the defensive side of the football. If Michael Pinnix. If Pinnix is. If Pinnix is really good, they got the pieces.
Starting point is 01:03:41 Bijon's an elite player, good offensive coordinator. That's the surprise division winner, and I think that that could happen, but it's hard not to like the stability of Tampa. So we've got upcoming NFC East and West shows, another mock draft. We've got Ice and Fire coming up soon, which means August is almost here.
Starting point is 01:03:59 We got ranking shows. We got the Ultimate Draft Kit at ultimatedraftkit.com and the community at jointhefoot.com, and we would love you to be part of that community here as we go into what is this year? 11 11 year 11 of the fantasy footballers podcast. So thank you for tuning in. We love you. Shout out to the deuces back there. I love one of you too. You guys can fight over it. Catch you next time. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at theffballers.

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