Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Old, Bland, and Undervalued Players + Hot Dog Decisions - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/13

Episode Date: June 13, 2024

Which older players are being undervalued in 2024? On today’s fantasy football podcast, Andy, Mike, and Jason discuss veteran wide receivers and their ADP in mock drafts. Can Mike Evans do it again? Will Cooper Kupp bounce back? Plus, NFL News and draft strategies for the onesie positions! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for June 13th, 2024. 2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com Get MEGALASHOW tickets at BallersLive.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Scotiabank you're richer than you think. And now we turn to the world of sports. The football season is upon us, and that means it's time to get ready for your fantasy football drafts. The ultimate draft kit from the fantasy footballers is the cat's pajamas, and only tool you need. The best rankings in the business, sleepers, breakouts, values. It's even got a free companion app.

Don't be a pigeon-livered foosler the ultimate draft kit will keep you on the up and up and keep all the hornswogglers at bay don't even think about entering a fantasy football draft without it don't be a square head to ultimatecraftkit.com today day. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in one and all. Not quite back yet. Someday, the lion will roar again.

Saw a lot of people very unhappy with your lack of an intro. No respect for the sickness. I lost my voice. Well, you didn't lose your voice. I lost some of my voice. Yeah, I mean, honestly, first words out of the gate here, wasn't sure if the volume would be there, if it would sound like me. I'm kind of okay with where it's at.

Yeah, it sounds enough like you. And it wasn't, you know, it's like when you start where it's like you don't like it anyways, does it really matter? Probably not. Right. Probably not. Hi, Jay. Hey, what's up, dude?

Mike's here. Chillo. There was a moment earlier, Jay, when I thought, like, you didn't have a hat on to start the show, and I thought you were going to, like, finally, I thought you were going to do it. It's not haircut day, my man. When I get a haircut, you'll see these luscious locks. You do it for one day? Yeah.

Oh, because you prep up for the... That's right. Out of respect. Out of respect for my Tinder. Okay. Okay. So, when you're at home, what is the hat ratio? Good question.

Yeah, that's a great question that our audience really wants to know. And I would say that it's- The people do. Yeah, the people want to know. I would say it's usually 70% of the time no hat. No hat. Yeah, walk in, hang my hat by the door, and just live in my shame within those walls. If you have a guest coming over, have you ran to get a hat?

100% my man. Yes. 100%. If a guest is over, my ratio is more like 95% hat. Oh. Okay. Well, it's good to know. I feel like once that hits or once it dips to a certain percent, nope, goes up, is like

that's when you just shave the head. Yeah. You did that once. I did that once. I don't think I got the right skull shave. I think I know. But you weren't a hat man back then. Oh, you're saying shave and cover.

I'm saying now, if all you'd ever do is wear a hat. What's the difference? Then why go get haircuts and just be free? Instead, give yourself a haircut every day. You don't have to do it every day. How often do you, speaking to the bald one back there, how often do you have to, like, is it every day? No, every, like, three days.

Like in the shower? Yeah. He keeps it real close. Are you a straight razor? They make a special, like, it's called like a head blade or like a head razor. All right. You can look into that. No, thank you.

We have a great show for you today. We are talking through old, bland, and undervalued players and whether there are some opportunities there for fantasy football. It's been a funny offseason because my dynasty team, speaking to our leagues, there are those of you out there that are probably more like Jason and Mike, who have some young studs on their dynasty roster. Yeah, we have the young bucks.

But it's been kind of a funny offseason for my dynasty team because I'm known as the guy with the old players, who all seem to be getting contracts. You have the golden touch right now. Your roster, if they're on there. Like, for instance, Alvin Kamara's on your roster. I haven't heard a peep about any kind of contract extension whatsoever. I know it's coming.

Only because every other elder statesman that you think is like an expiring dynasty asset on your team has received some sort of extension. It's pretty wild so uh today we'll talk about some old players that get devalued due to age and whether you think that they have some seasons left talk through some news we made an announcement on the tuesday show letting people know that we have our 10th anniversary live event on saturday August 24th at the Palace Theater in Los Angeles. Tickets are available at ballerslive.com, our 10th anniversary Megalos show. So you can go over there.

And there was one website question submitted by Andrew in relation to the Megalos show that he wants us to answer. He said, hello, ballers. My sister's wedding is on August 24th as well. How do I explain to her that I cannot make her wedding? You don't explain that you don't miss her wedding. They need to move the date.

Uh, this is a both and she's going to want to come to the show too. She didn't know. She didn't know what, you know, we just announced the show on August 24th. That's not her fault. But now she understands. She can move her date.

Now it's her fault? Well, now it's her problem to solve. So, yeah, just change the wedding date. Go to hers. Go to ours. Bring her along. She can't get married at the show? I will allow that.

I will absolutely allow that. Yeah, so that's an option, too. The Ultimate Draft Kit available right now at ultimatedraftkit.com. Also, ballerslive.com if you want to come to the show. Yeah. No, I mean, it never hurts to hear it twice. Now I'm imagining people actually trying to have a ceremony during the show. I mean, it would have to be like 90 seconds.

I mean, you couldn't do a long ceremony. We wouldn't probably. Just a do you, do you. Yeah. Actually. Get out of here. Can any of us officiate? Yeah, I can.

I can do an online course in minutes. Okay. All right. You can follow the show over on X at the FF Ballers. Jason is at Jason FFL. I'm at Andy Holloway. Mike at FF Hitman. Quick question of the day.

This comes in from Sean. I have heard you say to avoid picking the onesie positions, so quarterbacks and tight ends, back to back. These would be positions where in most leagues there's only one that starts for you as opposed to running backs, normally a couple, wide receivers, two or three. Could you elaborate on why you advise against taking onesie positions back-to-back? I would love to hear your thoughts.

It comes down to just supply-demand. This is economics. It's called a onesie, O-N-E, because you're playing one of them. This is not super flex. We're not talking about tight end premium, just regular scoring leagues. You start one of them, and every single week, you're starting at least two wide receivers, at least two running backs. That's not even taking into account three wide receiver leagues

or the flex position. So you need more of them each and every single week. That means during injuries and bye weeks, you need more and more of them. Why not back-to-back? Well, it's not so much back-to-back. That's not the advice we give, just both early. Yes. If you were to take them back-to-back 9-10, great.

That's not the issue. The issue is when you're spending a premium, it's not so much about like, oh, we don't want you to have a great tight end and a great quarterback. It's the opportunity cost you give up for in the third round. You're giving up a prime, very important running back or wide receiver. You're going to need more of them. You're going to need them more with bi-week fill-ins, with injuries and all of that. And so when you, if you, if you take your third and fourth pick, and so now, and you go quarterback and tight end, great, you got those positions on lock, but you're going into

the fifth round with presumably, you know, either zero running backs or wide receivers or one of each. And that is really hard to, to play a position that is the most important, which is running back and wide receiver, without premium assets. It's just very, very difficult. Is there an aspect, too, of risk aversion with, obviously, high draft capital pick on a onesie position, that player gets hurt, wipes out that position for you? Right, yeah, absolutely.

If you're investing in Mahomes or in a Kelsey early and they get injured, your gap to the next fill-in is enormous. Your cost is there. But obviously with the position where you're going to roster many more of them, you can take those hits a little easier. I'm curious, are there ADP situations right now, average draft position, that people are going to be tempted by the, like where's Mahomes and Kelsey right now? That's the one for me.

Is that third and fourth? That's third and fourth. That's the one for me where I am actually genuinely for the first time in like, I don't know, seven or eight years, I've been tempted because not only – Oh, yeah, Kelsey 303, Mahomes 402. Not only is it a value on each one of those players over the previous several years, last year Kelsey was the fifth overall pick.

Now he's in the third round. You can get him. Usually Mahomes is a second-round pick. Now he's in the fourth round. So you're getting a value on those guys, but you're also getting the stack. Lamar is going at 404, Andrews at 411. There's a chance he would slip into the fifth.

If you took Lamar early, you might be tempted if Andrews was there in the fifth. Well, each round that you get later, it's more and more agreeable to do because the difference between giving up a fifth-round running back or wide receiver versus a third-round running back or wide receiver is massive. So, yeah, I mean, Lamar, Andrews, you're starting to get okay. I think both of those can be okay. This is not a hard and fast rule written in stone. It's just a risk situation.

It's one of those things we want you to be aware of when you're on the clock. If all of a sudden it turns out that in the fourth round, even though you took Kelsey, the clear and obvious best player available is Mahomes, great. But if there's running backs and wide receivers, it's a matter of who's on the board. There are really, really quality players that have dropped there to sacrifice one of those for a onesie when you already rostered one.

It's just, it's not usually a winning strategy. News and notes from around the league. Well, let's talk about some Browns minicamp updates. Jerry Judy dealing with a minor injury, and Amari Cooper did not report to Browns minicamp. He's in the final year of a deal. I just looked at this. He gets paid $23 million this year.

But he would like... He sees what's going on. I honestly, at 30 years old, after the way he played last year, this is your chance to get it again. I mean, you're not going to get it at 31 or 32. So, you know, Amari Cooper staying away from minicamp right now looking for a deal. He has all my dynasty team.

Probably going to get a deal. We know he'll get it. Probably going to get it. T. Higgins did not report to Bengals minicamp, but I believe Jamar Chase did. Yeah, Higgins is going to do what the franchise players often do, which is I'm not going to sign my tender and not going to have to go to all those offseason stuff

that I don't have to do when you're not giving me a contract, and then hopefully he doesn't show up like Fat Thor last year. That's what Jacobs did. Brees Hall working off to the side. and then hopefully he doesn't show up like Fat Thor last year. That's what Jacobs did. Yeah. Brees Hall working off to the side. There have been some Jets updates in general. Still dealing with a minor lower body injury. He missed time at OTAs as well.

So precautionary right now. Yeah, not concerned yet. But you'll be really excited when you see him go through drills, right? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. I mean, there's no different than Kyron, it's like oh we're not concerned and then he shows up it's like oh thank god i was super concerned i might not have let on but i was terrified yeah i mean you are a little bit it you are it is always that way i mean no matter how minimal it is you you know when when anthony richardson was saying, you know, he's not 100%, he's 95%.

He's like, oh, that's good news, but you're always going to be like, I just want everything to be great. You know, Joe Burrow had a quote this last week. It's like, you know, that it's a process coming back from injury. There'll be good days and bad days and all that. That's just the truth. I don't want that truth. I just want it to be all good days.

Yeah, don't tell me that. Right. Mike Williams expected to be fully cleared from his ACL injury in August. Okay. And then, I mean, Aaron Rodgers has been missing minicamp, unexcused. It's not excused per the head coach but they knew he had a previous engagement

that was important to Aaron Rodgers that he's at but it's not excused you do not have permission but you're going to do it anyway right it's a weird story this thing got spun out of control.

Yeah, it doesn't matter that much, but if somebody decided they're not going to be there, even if you wanted them to be there, what's your best PR move? Your best PR move is, yeah, it's fine with me, though. It's not to say I'm upset and then mess up your offseason. He's at an event that's important to him. I will say this.

With him out, it has lifted my spirits of Garrett Wilson quite a bit. Wait, him being out? Yeah, because it reminds me that Tyrod Taylor is now a capable backup there. He's been having really good drills with Garrett Wilson in the absence. That doesn't make me feel better. It makes me feel better because what we saw, the basement with Zach Wilson last year when Garrett Wilson was trying to play football with him,

was so far down, and I'm worried about Aaron Rodgers. I'm worried about his health. I'm worried about his capability. It's just nice to know that it's not going to go to an incompetent backup. Tyrod Taylor is a competent backup. He's a competent backup, but if I told you today he's starting the season, enjoy watching Garrett Wilson's ADP. Oh, I mean, you're going to take an L at the ADP,

but if you then said, just kidding, it's Zach Wilson, I'd be like, enjoy putting him on your bench. Yeah, no, that makes sense. It's knowing, because you had the rookie year, you had some games. Flacco, am I remembering that right, no, that makes sense. It's knowing because you had the rookie year. You had some games like Flacco. Am I remembering that right, Kyle? Oh, yeah. Like Flacco and Mike White where it was –

The problem with Tyrod – As long as the quarterback doesn't suck, then Garrett Wilson will still be okay. Because it's a risky – it feels like a risky pick right now, drafting Garrett Wilson where he is because you're so reliant on Aaron Rodgers. But it could be so much worse than Tyrod. So I'm on Jason's side. It's nice to know that someone is there. It's a reminder that Tyrod is there.

Okay. Yeah, I mean, it can't get worse than last year. It could have stayed the same. It can be bad, though. It can still be bad. Tyrod's such a weird player because he's had good games. He's had games where he likes to – Who's behind Taylor?

Yeah, because he's an injury risk. He's going to get hurt. They drafted one, didn't they? Let me see. Jordan Travis. Oh, yeah. Okay. Yeah. Not good. No. We Travis. Oh, yeah. Okay. Yeah.

Not good. No. We're really close here again. Yeah, you're taking a quarterback risk. It's a risk, yeah. And then we did get news that Jonathan Brooks, who we talked about on the Tuesday show, may not be ready for the start of training camp.

Jason, I'm trying to read your expression running back for the Panthers yeah I mean he's coming off of a an ACL during his final season in college I thought it was going to drop him more in the NFL draft than it did it did not the team invested in him I love that he may not be ready because this is not a setback situation this is a take your time don't rush him back he is the future this is not a team that needs him out there incredibly early i think jonathan taylor's or jonathan brooks is going to be a fantastic pick this year second half when you so let me push back though okay yeah because we had a conversation about jonathan brooks the adp is going to go up then we had a conversation

about buying the injury debt it's not the same as you know when bets built out our chart 71 of the time underperforms adp it wasn't factoring in collegiate injuries but this is still coming back from an acl i i think it is a unique and different case than an injury dip because this isn't the this isn't a situation where you've got Saquon and he's had this year or that year and now he's injured and he's dipped in ADP. No one knows what Jonathan Brooks is anyways. There isn't really a set ADP where he was established. And so if he starts the season looking like he's going to be the backup, his ADP is going to be so low that it's not really an ADP dip. It's just no risk. No, that makes sense. Low risk, and what I would project for Jonathan Brooks,

even though he should be better next year. We know this, running backs especially, the second year after the ACL recovery, then they get back into who they used to be. But Jonathan Brooks for the Panthers over the second half should see so much volume. Unless they have to manage him. Yeah. that Brooks for the Panthers over the second half should see so much volume. And as long as he's – Unless they have to manage him. Yeah. It's just the projection would be you're talking about volume.

So then just real quick, then, Jay, do you have interest in Chuba as a later round – I mean, is Chuba even being drafted? A guy who just for those first three to four weeks that you may have someone that can start yeah I mean I I think it's okay I mean I I'll have to wait and see I'm not I'm not personally positive that it's Chuba that would be the starter versus Miles Sanders I think both those guys are neither one is who this team wants to be the primary ball carrier so I'm not I think there are other options out there later in drafts.

I'd rather grab a Devin Singletary, who I know is the starter and can fill in for a couple weeks to pair with Jonathan Brooks than the presumed starter for Carolina. From week 12 on, he was the running back nine, averaging more points than Jameer Gibbs in that time span. Yeah, he had a great stretch of games. I will certainly be betting against that to repeat. Okay.

And might as well break this out for Mike's sake. Oh, what do we got? Well, we got our coach speak, Mike. How do we not love the coach speak? I mean, I do. Is this one for me? I don't remember if the train stops on its own. No, you stop the train.

You are the conductor. Good. Good to know. John Harbaugh, Ravens head coach, talks about – Oh, yes. He was talking about whether Derrick Henry can maintain the same workload he saw in Tennessee. Can he?

He said, well, I do believe that he can. I mean, I watched the wear and tear he put on defenses, ours included. Yes. I can't wait to see him in action. Good. Good. Good. So for those of you that have him, that's great news. I love a good outlier.

I love a good outlier. You know, Derrick Henry was for four seasons a mathematical fantasy football outlier where you go, I don't draft early first round running backs that don't catch the ball unless it's Derrick Henry right because he's literally a lot of unlesses with him yes there's a lot of unlesses I'm gonna keep unlessing Derrick oh he's too old unless it's Derrick Henry's a yeti yeah exactly I will keep unlessing derrick henry okay well there you go uh we'll take a break come back with old bland and undervalued options all right before we jump into derrick this segment i did want to get a quick status update.

Jason, you made a choice at lunchtime to go double hot dogs today. Double chili dog. Double cheese chili dog. Chili cheese dog. That's implied. You had been eating well for a long time but you said that today you noticed the impact a little bit more severely than in years past yeah i've spent my life uh abusing my body uh nutritionally and i've spent the last several

weeks uh taking care of cleaning. Cleaning it up. And then I was like, oh, check out them chili cheese dogs. Those look delicious. And to be fair, very egged on by Andy over here, which I don't blame you because they were delicious. And I am feeling every ounce of that chili flowing through my veins right now. I feel them hot dogs trying to come back up. Was this a chili with bean or without? No bean. No bean.

No bean. Now, I only brought it up because this was a topic of conversation just before the show, and he was really noticing. He needed some medicine. I got my Pepsi complete. He said that he had noticed. He's's like i've eaten dogs before and this time it's really i'm just surprised yeah i think your body doesn't want this stuff and i i think what it is because i started to give the argument that like wow it's crazy how your body can get used to

you know i've eaten poorly and i don't always feel like this and i think what the truth is is i always felt like this so i never noticed yeah you've just been feeling a little better now I'm just feeling not not better just normal like I should wow okay um speaking of being old old bland and undervalued Old, Bland, and Undervalued. Apparently we had our first Old, Bland, and Undervalued episode in July of 2017. What a year. It included players such as Phillip Rivers, Jason Witten, Frank Gore, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrence West.

Oh, Terrence West. Not a name I was expecting to remember today. Terrence West and Jonathan Stewart. Yeah. Yeah. Nice. Every year there are a handful of guys that make a massive impact on fantasy football that their ADPs are completely nerfed because they're old, they're bland, and therefore

undervalued. Last year, one of Andy's my guys, Mike Evans, fits the bill where it was like, you're just used to him. You think his situation, he's not going to have a career year and he didn't necessarily have a career year. And yet it was awesome. It helped people win fantasy championships. It was a great resurgence. So we're going to go through a bunch of all the old players and basically say, do we think they're undervalued? Yeah, this is not a message to go draft the old guys. This is a message of, like, let's have a discussion about some players that we can push back against the bias.

And over the last decade, we've averaged 3.8 wide receivers, age 30-plus that finished in the top 24. So about four wide receivers a year in that age range, 30-plus. Last year, there were six of them. Mike Evans finished at seven at the position. Keenan at eight. Stephon Diggs at nine. Devontae Adams at 10.

Adam Thielen. Adam Th Keenan at eight. Stephon Diggs at nine. Devontae Adams at 10. Adam Thielen. Adam Thielen finished at 18. In fact, he was one of the best players over the first half of the year. And then I got tired. And then he got tired. And DeAndre Hopkins as well was in the top 24 last year. So it happens. Now Cooper Cup's the first name I want to bring up.

He's going to be 31 in the season. He's 30.9 years old right now. He's being drafted as the wide receiver 22. So he's one of the guys that the community is already expecting to be one of the four that makes it in. However, you know, you look at Cooper Cup, you can talk about the injuries. They have been a huge problem for two straight years. He's ended up with 812 receiving yards and 737 after his almost 2,000-yard season.

But all the peripheral metrics on Cooper Cup have gone down in a big fashion, whether it's his yards per outrun in general, dropping from 3.1 to 2.4 to 1.8. His yards per outrun against zone defenses has dropped 2.1 to 2.4 to 1.8. His yards per outrun against zone defenses has dropped 2.7, 2.5, 2.2. Target per outrun has dropped fantasy points per target, which I love that metric. I think the fantasy points per target metric is one of the most consumable, stand, easy to translate, 1.9, 1.5, 1.4, doing less with less. So where are you with the Cooper Cup experiment in drafts right now? He's going in the late fourth, middle to late fourth. Are you going to be targeting him?

I am 100% fine getting Cooper Cup in the late fourth. I expect Pukunukua to be the one for this team and Cooper Cup to be the two. But this is a team led by Sean McVay that year after year after year after year after year has had incredibly powerful wide receiver performances. Now, the last several years, it has been Cooper Cup, and then it has been Puka Nakua. But prior to that, you saw Cooper Cup and Robert Woods have multiple seasons where both guys were top 13 fantasy wide receivers. Cooper Cup is very, very good. He's been dealing with injuries. Now, that's really it, right?

Even on a fantasy points per target basis, if you look at some of that, you look at the touchdowns per game played, and that's really gone down. I don't think that that is indicative of, I don't think that's prescriptive for the future. Cooper Cup around the goal line is still an incredible, strong asset, and he had so many targets last year in that area that didn't connect. I think that Matthew Stafford's still going to go to him. So at the back of the fourth, if he falls to the back of the fourth, I'm fine grabbing Cup there. I actually think – You're probably taking him over to Vontae Smith, Jason, and DK Metcalf,

two players that I know you like. Yeah, I mean, obviously who's on the board is going to make a big deal to me. He's going – Yeah, he's going a couple spots ahead of them. Sorry. Yeah, I mean, I personally, I still believe in DK Metcalf a little bit more,

so I would be taking Metcalf over him. But I'm not out on Cooper Cup this season. To me, it's just a matter of injury. Do you think he is going to continue struggling with injuries, which is fine to think that. He has the last couple years. He's older. All the reports, I mean, to think that. He has the last couple years. He's older. All the reports,

I mean, they're stupid. It's worthless to even bring it up. All the reports are he looks so healthy and all that jazz, but they always do, right? Yeah, of course. Best shape of his life. I will take him here. In the fourth?

Yeah, because I believe the ceiling is higher for him than the smith metcalf situation i have so much more confidence in what they've done on the offensive line in los angeles the quarterback play of matthew stafford um and the fact that cooper cup could kind of re-emerge i think that you've got a year. I've got a year where I'm happy to go grab Cooper Cup in the fourth because the ceiling's a little bit more significant to me than some of the other options.

I will just say, I think one of the differences when we look at old fantasy assets is, do they still have a ceiling outcome? Because that's really where I think you want to start fading the veteran. Cooper Cup still does have a ceiling outcome. Cooper Cup could end up with... Even with the yards per outrun and the fantasy points per target? Yeah, because the fantasy points per target, I think,

are primarily like touchdowns per game. His utilization around the goal line was there. So I think you could still have a top 10 fantasy performance the way that Mike Evans did last year. If you look at him on just what he actually did, which it was a very hot, very cold season, he still was at 11.2 points per game, and that was like, I guess we're back onto injury,

but he was recovering from a major injury to start the year. Again. Yeah. But when it happens in training camp, it's generally a really bad sign, and yet he was still able to give you five really good weeks. Oh, go six. Yeah, six free weeks. And three week-winning performances.

So I think that you laid it out great of just does he still have a ceiling? And I think he still does. If Stafford is still there, I think that both him and Puka can be top 20 guys. I'll still take the bet on Puka before Cooper Cup, but Cooper Cup for me will not be a player I'm drafting like I'm trying to get him on every single squad. Like I'm not going to overload, but I'm going to make sure that some of my teams do have Cup.

Well, and one of Cup's worst games last year where he only caught two passes, that was a game Matthew Stafford didn't play in. So that goes to some of those targets per outrun numbers and everything on this season. I think the tough part with an older, former star is the consistency you're talking about. They don't come out and do it every week. They come out and show flashes on a good week when they're feeling good.

It's like Hopkins last year. Hopkins had weeks where he was the number two, four, eight, but it was few and far between it wasn't the old every week but um what about adam thielen this year last year adam thielen i know i know i know you love the voice everyone loves the voice but the uh i'm a little sad we didn't get the voice to be honest you just did it like two minutes ago it's's too long ago. Adam Thielen from weeks two through six had this outrageous run where he was on pace for like 160 catches, 1,700 yards, 14 touchdowns. He was seeing 30% of the targets.

It showed that if you target him frequently, you get production. There wasn't like a – having that correlation is encouraging. This year he'll be almost 34. But he did it last year. He is like, we act like having Deontay Johnson solves their wide receiver room. This is one of the worst wide receiver rooms you had ever laid eyes on outside of Adam Thielen. Incompetence through and through. Yes, they brought in Xavier, Liget.

I don't know how much they'll trust him. Feeling to me is the trustworthy, late-career, Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona situation where you're going to have more snaps than you thought he'd get, more first downs than you thought he'd get. He won't be drafted by anybody. He won't be drafted by me. That's for sure.

But I want to examine the why. Okay, let me tell you the why. The why is because you actually just said it and you don't realize you said it. Deontay Johnson coming in to one of the worst wide receiver rooms we've seen in forever outside of Adam Thielen. Adam Thielen was competing with no one

during that stretch where he was competing with no one during that stretch where he was competing with no one and acquiring 30 plus percent target share because you had to throw it to Thielen. There was no one else to throw the ball to. He had good numbers. He had a good stretch because volume mattered there. But now with Deontay Johnson there, can you imagine Deontay Johnson and Adam Thielen in this core where Adam Thielen is demanding 30% market share? No. If you look at weeks 12 on, that's where all of a sudden he didn't hit 30% market share, and that was without Deontay Johnson last year.

During that stretch where he was under 30% market share, he was on a 17-game pace of 699 yards and no touchdowns. So it's like Worthless can't play him yeah but you also have the worst quarterback play in the game i think that's i'll take 25 target share 23 target share of better performance i'm just saying that that do you think deontay johnson is worth rostering i would rather roster deontay johnson ahead of feeling uh uh player still in his prime feeling is you know i'm not saying you would take him over deontay Johnson ahead of Thielen, a player still in his prime. Thielen is, you know. I'm not saying you would take him over Deontay.

I'm just, the arguments that you made about this offense. I personally. Deontay's not getting 30% target share here. I'm not crazy about any pass catcher here. I'm not a Bryce believer. So you're not a Canales believer. I'm more of a Canales believer than a Bryce Young believer. So hopefully he can do what he did for Baker, do what he did, you know, for Geno Smith and get the most out of him.

The reports have been good, but the reports are always good. You also need to – look, this is a psychology aspect of the game. But, like, through – the heater was weeks two through six, and it was incredible. It was like a really strong run. Then you have the bye week. And it's not uncommon for older players like Adam Thielen to have a hot start and then everything falls apart.

But how long did you keep playing adam feeling after everything fell apart waiting for things to bounce back like no he had five straight weeks in a row it's going to come back and it was just it was a fool's errand to keep playing adam feeling so i think that that should factor in. What was Chris? Sorry. And I'll be looking for that again next year of Deontay Johnson. It could take him some time when they're on the actual NFL field to get a connection with Bryce Young.

I think it's possible that Adam Thielen comes out of the gates pretty hot, but it's more important to remember that if he does that, I'm not going to be fooled by it. I'm going to either pick him up off the waiver wire and try and move him, or I'm not going to buy in that this is going to be an entire season.

And they also spent a first-round pick on another wide receiver with a brand new coaching staff coming over that wasn't there for Adam Thielen's heater.enan Allen 32 years old wide receiver four and points per game last year switches teams right now being drafted in the fifth round it was the third highest fantasy points per game for any 31 plus year-year-old wide receiver since 2011. It was so good. Like, Keenan Allen, Keenan Allen's career will come to an end at some point.

But the Bears went out, added this security blanket for their young quarterback. Do you believe in one more year of Keenan Allen at this price? Where's he going? Fifth round, wide receiver 27. So you're talking guys right behind Keenan Allen right now. Pickens. Would be T. Higgins, George Pickens,

and then right in front of him would be Zay Flowers. Yeah. I hate being negative on two guys in a row, and especially Keenan, because Keenan's so good. Keenan's good now. He's a special player. He's always where the quarterback knows he's going to be. For this, though, last year you had Keenan Allen.

You had Mike Williams go down early, and then it was the Keenan Allen show. And Eckler wasn't there. Yeah, you had the Eckler injuries, too. Yeah, and so it's like okay he looked great but now you're you're not the one for this team DJ Moore is the one for this team are you the two or is Roma Dunzey the two and and probably Keenan is the two but my worry you know is is that what you're going to see is a very poor utilization behind the line of scrimmage really really short stuff the way that you saw Shane Waldron use JSN last year for the Seahawks that slot guy with just let's get him let's get him the ball short I just don't like that I don't if

if they did that I know it's if they're seriously putting old Keenan in that situation it will be a colossal failure. It's one of those where it's like we talk about, okay, with these old guys, does he still have a ceiling? Can you make the bowl case? Caleb Williams? No, because the ceiling for Keenan has always been massive reception volume. Exactly.

So it's harder to make the case that, like, is 110 receptions in the cards for a rookie quarterback to Keenan Allen? No. The targets have to be insane to reach. All his best seasons, 159 targets, 136, 149, 150. If you want to

give him just 100 targets, which is not the end of the world, you're not ending up with anything close to last year. Yeah, I mean, I have him with 130. Unless he scores a bunch of times, which he doesn't do. That's not his usual forte, and that's not the forte of rookie quarterbacks. Even good rookie quarterbacks, touchdowns are the thing that they lack the most. I've got Keenan down for 130 targets,

and that equates to the way that I see the offense playing out. The wide receiver 31 so in the fourth round ahead of someone like T Higgins that's just not home we don't play that let's just set an in living color reference yeah homie the clown sure yeah don't play that goodness gracious he's digested's the hot dogs talking. It's not my fault. Blame Andy. Do you have anything to add on Keenan Allen?

For the most part, no. But the only pushback I would say is I think that DJ Moore is an excellent wide receiver. I think he's the number one. I do. I'm going to leave a little margin that Keenan Allen actually is the number one wide receiver for this team. The dude, he is a target earner.

Like he – just the way that he plays, when you look up, like would you rather throw down the sideline of a – to DJ Moore who's streaking down the field of like he's kind of got DB on him a little bit or Keenan Allen who's literally wide open in the middle of the field. I don't know, man. Maybe you didn't see the quote from Rome. Roma Dunze is coming for Puka Nakua's receiving rookie record.

Oh, we all need goals. It's like, good for you, man. I am most excited to talk about this player because I think that there has not been enough discussion in the last four or five months about what to expect from Mike Evans after last year it was incredible his ADP on the my guys episode last year was wide receiver 33 Wide receiver at 33 in the seventh round. Yeah. It seemed insane to me at the time. And then this year. It seems insane again. He's the wide receiver 16.

I think part of that is a third round pick. So four rounds ahead. He was the wide receiver five last year on the year. So obviously Mike Evans deserves all the praise in the world first ballot um first ballot second ballot he will be a hall of famer not on the first ballot got paid consistency at quarterback um you know where are you with mike evans right now mike he was finishing his census where are you with mike Evans right now? Mike? He was finishing his sentence.

Where are you with Mike Evans right now, Mike? He's 80-piece sandwiched between Nico Collins and Deebo Samuel. Two players that I would take a full round ahead of Mike Evans. See, that's so... But I think you need to dig in there because

the why to that is, like Mike Evans, obviously every year, forever, literally without exception, is essentially a top 12 wide receiver. Yeah. I mean, the only times he didn't do it, he played fewer games. Maybe I'm allowing it to impact things just too much, but the Canales factor

is in my viewpoint of what's going on with the Bucs of having that be an almost carbon copy of the success from Seattle, like where we saw Gino

resurrect his career and be great. We saw the same thing with Baker last year, and then Dave leaves Seattle, things fall apart. So that could be oversimplifying it, but that's really how I'm looking at it. Mike Evans is, we joke about all the time, but I literally believe Mike Evans is a first-bound Hall of Famer who's going to have many, many more great seasons. But for fantasy football this year, I'm going to bet against it where he's of those other guys. I don't like that argument.

You don't like the argument? I don't like anything to do with Canales as the argument. That was the problem last year about why he was undervalued was it was a different quarterback coming in, and Mike Evans, of all players anywhere, has had the most change of everything. He's had six offensive coordinators. So is the seventh one going to make a difference?

I do think it's not a matter of will it make a difference for Mike Evans, but will it make a difference for Baker. This is also a bet on Baker to some degree. It was a bet on Baker last year. If you bet on Baker, you got paid out because Mike Evans was great. The way that I've got him right now, I've got him down for nine receiving touchdowns. That's like as much as I can give him. Last year he had 13.

If he gets 13 in my stats, he jumps to my wide receiver nine. So he's still got that ceiling in him. I'm not opposed to drafting Mike Evans. But this is a question of like like is Baker going to throw as many touchdowns as he did last year without Canales with the new coordinator all that I mean obviously Canales was a new coordinator for him last year uh this is year two with Mike Evans you can make an argument either way but let's say he got eight eight touchdowns he drops like wide receiver 17 in my rankings that's where he's being drafted. Yes. Really? He's that low?

Yes. He's wide receiver 16. I'm fine. I am fine taking him there. And again, my bet against Mike Evans is just the players around him. I have him right around 14. The Nico comment is interesting. My chips are all in on Nico. But top five finish potential?

I think he can, yeah. Okay. I mean, that is chips all in that's like two bags of chips all the way in you know if i had three bags of chips i'd have three bags of chips on the table yeah i mean all in means whatever you have like if i had five bags you can't you can't have five bags and then be like all in and then put three in they'll say sir yeah you owe me two bags. That's just poker. This is poker chatter. Just poker bags. Homie, don't play that.

Okay, look, I'm just trying to tease out both sides of the discussion. Yeah, that's fine. So you're in on Mike Evans again. No, this is why I'm curious. By the way, I started with the I'm teasing this out before you called me out on it. No, I'm not. By the way, I started with the, I'm teasing this out, before you called me out on it. No, I'm not all in on Mike Evans. I think the variable there is the touchdowns.

It's massive. He's never going to catch 100 passes. But I also don't like doubting Mike Evans because you know what you're going to get. To bring Nico Collins up as an example, like Stefan Diggs is a complete unknown in this situation, right? We like Tank Dell. Nico played a lot of games without Tank Dell last year, right, and without Noah Brown last year.

Like, he had an opportunity when those guys were off the field. CJ Stroud, is it a sophomore slump? Does he do the exact same thing in year two? We always think they will. Baker didn't. Baker had a great, you know, freshman season in the nfl and the sophomore year was tough so from a variable standpoint you look at mike evans and what do we call this old bland and undervalued there's a blandness to taking mike evans in your draft

where you don't receive the kind of like adrenaline rush of drafting nico collins george pickens or somebody that's exciting with the unknown and yet you could just go win your league because of it. That's kind of where I'm at. So to give you an answer, if he slips a few picks, if he's top of the fourth round and he's the wide receiver 18, 19, 20 off the board, it's a no-brainer guarantee you didn't make a mistake with that pick. He doesn't get hurt. He has a great rapport with the existing quarterback.

I don't really care about the offensive coordinator personally because you just chuck it up to Mike Evans, just like the last six offensive coordinators you did that with. So last year, like wild numbers. So on the season, because we think of Chris Godwin having a very poor year. Last year, Mike Evans was 25% of the targets. Chris Godwin was 24% of the targets. Mike Evans was 31% of the wide receiver yards.

Chris Godwin was 25. Touchdowns. Chris Godwin, 7% of the receiving touchdowns. Mike Evans, 46%. Yeah. So, like, when you're the thought experiment of, like, well, Nico had these guys out the field. He had a – Mike Evans had Chris Godwin out of the end zone completely.

I will say – Like, he always does. Of the four oldies that we've talked about so far on today's episode, I like Kup more than Evans. And if he's going a full round behind today's episode, I like Cup more than Evans. And if he's going a full round behind, I mean, I like them about this. I like them about the same. And so I like him more based on the fact that he's going a full round behind. When you said, well, if Mike Evans slips and slides to the fourth round,

Cooper Cup's at the back of the fourth right now. And I don't want to load up on too many old guys, you know? Sure. Not my jam. Yeah. I just think... I don't think there's been a lot of talk about why Evans is where he is at in current drafts. Because he... There's other players that people like talking about more.

So, it's just going to be very interesting to me to see if he becomes a value again because that's what happens these guys end up being values over and over again and he did get paid sure yeah and who's more likely like if you had to bet your house on double digit touchdowns you're going to do it with nico are you going to do with mike evans this year evans yeah i mean that so in that respect that's why I wanted to talk about it. All right.

We'll take a break. Got one more name for you. Like I said, I got two more names for you. Oh. In the break, we got one more. Yeah, one more name did appear in the break. Brandon Cooks. Let's start there. I've started to see that name percolate in the undervalued category mike is nodding like a man who agrees i do um it was not a great start last year for brandon cooks i think there

was a lot of hope, anticipation, all the offseason chatter, and then he comes out, wide receiver 76, 88, 61, 82. Forget about him. He did more over the second half of the year after the bye, but after the bye, it wasn't great.

I mean, it would have been a pace of 63 receptions for 846 yards and 11 touchdowns. After the bye, he averaged 11 fantasy points per game, good for wide receiver 15 during that stretch. Yeah, but that was touchdowns. Yeah, that is the problem.

It was all touchdowns. 63 for 846 won't get it done, but the touchdowns were there. He was catching – he almost – man, he caught a touchdown almost all the games. Yeah, he had a touchdown stretch to to end the season but his yardage was comical at times 45 37 10 14 60 39 for the last six weeks he had a monster week 10 which is what we expected to see more of more blow up games for Brandon cooks. Now, Mike, you like him at wide receiver 44 as a flyer late in. Yeah. It's the,

I mean, you saw, yeah. So right now he's going, the wide receiver 65 last year, the, all those games at the beginning when you were like Brandon cooks had poor games.

So to Dak Prescott and for fantasy purposes and like it's it's hard to remember now it's because it can be very difficult to remember game script of what happens but there was the cowboys were blowing everybody out at the beginning except for the one game where they got crushed by the Arizona Cardinals somehow in week three, which was essentially a blowout in the other direction. You just had really, really wild games where even in that stretch, CeeDee Lamb, who's in alpha, CeeDee Lamb had three games under 10 points in the first six weeks.

Why didn't they use Brandon Cooks to blow people out more? At the beginning? Yeah, or at all. What do you mean? At the end? Well, not every game. Why didn't you use Brandon Cooks a lot? Why should we not blow them out? He's got too many similarities to Quentin Johnston in terms of

getting a billion snaps and not a lot of involvement. I'm just asking why he's not a fundamental part of the offense. That was what was disappointing me. He wasn't like a billion snaps, and not a lot of involvement. I'm just asking why he's not a fundamental part of the offense. That was what was disappointing me, is it wasn't like he wasn't like a 1A, 1B, or 1A and a solidified 2. I think he was the 2. He was the 2. I mean, he was.

Like the target share goes CD Lamb at 30%, Brandon Cooks at 13. 54 for 657 on the year. So, Jay, you're right. Ferguson would be the number 2 in terms of target share. So he's the number two pass catcher. But then it was Brandon Cooks, and then no one else above a 10%. So he could be the number three then. I like him as a bet on the Dallas Cowboys to continue what they did last year

of we're going to air the ball out. We have one geriatric running back, and then with the other guy who is at this point been in the league for a while but still feels like he's unproven. So it's just take some bets that Dak Prescott's going to have another great year. And if Dak has a great year, then I think that Cooks can – well, he's not going to be 1100 yards or probably even a thousand yards, but you get up over 800 and you get me six to eight touchdowns.

I'm happy with that. I don't think there's a ceiling here anymore. He's, he's over 30. Dak just had maybe the best year he's ever had. And Cooks finished as the wide receiver 36. So as a late, late pick in best ball that where you're going to have touchdown opportunities sure but in my redraft i this is i wanted this to go differently because he got thrown into a trade that came my way and i thought i would get into this conversation yeah i acquired

him he was just a an extra player added on and i wanted to get to the point where I was really in on that. But, you know, last year, 54 for 657 playing every week in Dallas. Yeah. And now he's older. How do you even play that? Homie don't play that. Homie don't play that. As a second flex, I think you're going to see Brandon Cooks in there. Not on my lineup.

Well, not your lineup. He's not on your team. That's right. He's on old man's team. Speaking of old man's team there's one other you said i'm gonna play brandon cooks because i don't have enough good players is that what you're telling me no i'm telling you you got old guys and brandon cooks is one of the better ones on my bench you've got one other i also have feeling you oh man oh yeah really do it do you really we should track how many weeks i start either one of those players.

Dude, let's go. I hope a lot. Don't worry, guys. I won't play either because I got to lock it. Lock it down. Yeah. Yeah. But do you have Amari Cooper?

Yeah. Okay. That's an actual undervalued old guy that's being disrespected. You love him. I do love him. I think he is a super solid player right now. He was good this last season. He's been drafted like Evans last year almost. I mean, wide receiver 30.

Oh, I thought you were saying he was being drafted like Evans this year, which was like wide receiver 17. That would be crazy. But if he's being drafted as the wide receiver 30, and this is a player who finished as the wide receiver 18 last year. I think it's the fears of Deshaun Watson. I've brought this stat up in the past, but there were five games that Amari Cooper played with Deshaun Watson.

That was a pace of 95 for 1,632 yards and seven touchdowns. He's the clear-cut one for this team. I think he is right now being completely undervalued in drafts. Last year was, I mean, the one big week was amazing. 11 for 265 and two. You had quarterbacks dancing all over the place. Not a lot of touchdowns. I agree.

I agree that he's undervalued. I think the Watson stink rubs off a little bit. Yeah, I don't see him him as having the the upside of a Cooper Cup or you know even a Mike Evans here but at the same time you don't have to draft him like those and he even last year keep in mind that all wide receivers that are past the top like six guys they're all inconsistent if you look at wide receiver consistency compared to wide receiver consistency he has a consistency score of a b so he has monstrous games but they not all of his production came in those like a like a dj more he was actually pretty consistent his target volume is assured and he played well with deshaun watson so i for wide receiver 30 i think i think he's going to outproduce that this season you agree mike yeah jason's talked me into him i don't

like it good work jay i don't really like it i hate playing with waltemort you know what i mean but you know the math is what the math is uh do you guys real quick um well we won't dig into each one but i just want to know do you believe at all in the value for Mostert in the seventh? Yes. Yeah. James Conner in the sixth. Yep. Yeah.

Kamara in the fifth. Yes. In PPR for sure. I think so. Zeke in the 11th. The 11th? Okay. Zeke is just, for fantasy football, I'm pretty out. Okay.

I thought you were going to be in. I'm going to say I'm out. Even in the 11th, though? Even in the 11th, I think he's not going to impact my team in a way that takes me to further wins and championships. No. Is Travis Kelsey belonging on this episode? Sure.

Yeah. I mean, he's still my tight end one right now. And he's... He's not bland. No. No. The Kelseys are never bland. Third round for Travis Kelsey.

Cheapest you've been able to get him in a long time. And for just cause. He's going to be playing at 35 years old after a down year for him and Mahomes. And you assume they're going to save him a little bit, save his body through the season and not run him into the ground. All that being said, I do think that he has a good shot of finishing one, but unlike years past where when he finishes one, he's lapped the field and there's like a four-point gap to number two,

if he finishes one this year, there's going to be three guys that are pretty close to him. Will they be the same three guys we think they are? Yeah. That's important. I think this is an important stat also to call out. Travis Kelsey, points per game,

identical as Sam Laporta last year. The tight end one, I get career trajectory and all that stuff. That has to factor in. But in points per game, The tight end one, I get career trajectory and all that stuff. That has to factor in. But in points per game, he was tied with the tight end one,

and he's going later. Okay. So undervalued? I mean, I like the four. I like the four tight ends at the top, but I don't like Samuel Laporte as ADP. 209? No. No, I don't like it. That is as ADP. 209. No.

No, I don't like it. That is going to do it for today's episode of the show. We got a mock draft coming next week and an AMA episode. BallersLive.com if you want to come see us in Los Angeles. UltimateDraftKid.com available now. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on twitter at the ff ballers