Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Regress or Impress? 2nd Half Studs + Age Cliffs - Fantasy Football Podcast for 3/27

Episode Date: March 27, 2025

Fantasy Football show for Mar 27, 2025. Which title winners will do it again in 2025? 2nd Half Studs edition of Regress or Impress! Plus, a look at fantasy football age cliffs, and more free agent signings including Stefon Diggs and Russell Wilson. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.Get the lowest price on the 2025 UDK at UltimateDraftKit.com - Instant access to the Dynasty Pass with the UDK+(00:00)  Introduction(03:50)  Quick Question - Dynasty Age Cliffs(13:10)  NFL News(20:40)  Regress or Impress: 2nd half studs(21:30) Jared Goff(28:20)  Jerry Jeudy(35:19)  Chase Brown(46:01)  Bucky Irving(52:05)  Jonnu SmithConnect with the show:Subscribe on YouTubeVisit us on the WebSupport the ShowFollow on XFollow on InstagramJoin our Discord

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Oh welcome in Any Mike and Jason the fantasy footballers Jason wearing the lightest blue he's worn It's matches my eyes in a long time Looking like an Easter luncheon. I'm not gonna lie to you. It's laundry day at my house I didn't know it looks good. Yeah I don't you look fresh as a searing breeze there was a time in which on laundry day You would have worn a dirty black shirt

And basketball shorts. Oh yeah, I'm not wearing any shorts today. Right, yeah. But that's the desk's problem. And job. It's to block that. Welcome in one and all. No, it looks good.

It's still your patented polo. I mean, you wouldn't be caught dead without. If I don't have a collar, I'm not a professional. No collars, no buttons on her shirt. What's she trying to hide? I don't know what I'm talking about. All right. It's Thursday, March 27th, and we are back.

We've got a Regress or Impress episode. This one's going to be a lot of fun. We're actually looking at five players that had amazing second halves to their season, fantasy-wise, and whether we believe they're going to continue succeeding or maybe it was just kind of a half a season wonder. Yeah, I mean, these situations are one of those where you always need to do your best to try to investigate and get it right. You've got the Almond Ross St. Browns

where you see the breakout, you see something special happen, and there was so much debate. You know, it was like, oh, there were injuries around him. It was the situation, but also he did what he did. And it turns out, with hindsight being 20-20, he good. And so this is, yeah, I mean, there's a handful of players on today's episode as well, where we're specifically

talking about people that I didn't know they were that good. What I saw was like, I believe it's real. And so we just hope we get that right. Also have some news to catch up on. I have a quick question that we'll get to momentarily. A reminder you can watch the show on YouTube. YouTube.com slash The Fantasy Footballer. Subscribe, click the bell.

You'll be notified when we have new episodes. In season we do live streams. Mike does a Sunday live every week and you'll want to watch it over there. Make sure you drop us a review. Follow on your podcast players, Spotify, Apple, wherever you're listening. And the DraftKit, the UDK, available at a discounted pre-order price. Releases June 1st in full. UltimateDraftKit.com to learn more about that. That'll be all of our rankings, including stat projections for every single player,

our sleepers breakouts, busts, and values, and player profile videos. All the tiers. Yeah, and the draft analyzer, a lot of things. It's our kind of pinnacle product. It's what we work, the team here, works very hard on every year, and you can learn about that at UltimateDraftKit.com.

The quick question we have is from Matt in Tacoma asks, in dynasty leagues, what are the typical ages to get maximum value trading away a wide receiver or a running back? Yeah, I mean, if you're playing in a dynasty league, getting those things right is critical. Timing the market. Timing the market. Timing the lifespan of the player is is critical. Timing the market. Timing the market, timing the lifespan of the player is especially critical. And obviously, this is an individual thing.

This is different for each player. So when we talk here in generalities, you've got to then apply kind of the logic to the individual players. This guy, an outlier, like Derrick Henry, is not like any other player that has been in the league for quite some time. Derrick Henry is not like any other player that has been in the league for quite some time Derek Henry is going to personally

Skew like ruin our average. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, we need to remove him take take the outliers out Just so we have a train more Fred Jackson Derek Henry Emmett Smith. We just don't worry about them. Yeah, exactly For me when I'm looking at running back and wide receiver Wide receiver. I'm pretty confident in when I like looking at running back on wide receiver, wide receiver I'm pretty confident in when I like to trade them on an age basis. That one's 28 years old. 28 is where, because what I'm wanting to do when I trade a player is I want to get a haul. I want to trade them while they're still valuable. 28 is not the age cliff. 28 is not, so this is for this year I was looking at all the wide receivers

that kind of fit this bill who can get a haul. There's only one this year that's going to be basically that age range who can get a haul and that's AJ Brown. AJ Brown's awesome. I'm not saying trade AJ Brown because he's going to fall off. What I am saying is AJ Brown will net you a haul. People will pay up. You will get a young, stud-wide receiver and a first round pick. And if that young, wide receiver ends up hitting and being very good and you get something with your first, you're retooled, you're still competitive, and then you fast forward two years from now, you're not going to get anything from AJ Brown once he turns 30. You might just hold onto him and get plenty of years of value.

Yes, you get to the point where you- The Mike Evans of the- Yeah, it's not worth trading those guys anymore because the value to your weekly roster is greater than someone's going to trade for. Yeah, so that's kind of for me- It's just the degrees of might, okay? It's what am I getting and how confident

am I in what I am getting? Yeah, that's the biggest challenge because you don't want to like this is not a that's the age you like to trade them But that's not a prescription to trade them at all costs No, same because it's like you can make you can go trade AJ Brown and get a haul but make sure that you're very strongly Convicted about the players you're receiving Absolutely. I mean we've we've personally done this in our main dynasty league several times. Like my best trade was I traded away Julio Jones at the peak. Like he was as hot as possible. I think he was about 28 somewhere around there. Maybe 29. I got CD Lamb, a

young rookie, and a first-round pick that turned into a great pick. And obviously Julio Jones Poof and evaporate and disappeared Andy. You did this many times. Yeah, you did this with you've done this with quarterbacks you traded away I believe it was it my homes and for for Josh Allen plus or you had one of those you also did it with Todd Gurley you traded away him after his hot start. You got Dalvin Cook plus picks. And so I do think that there is a place in Dynasty Leagues where that is the right methodology. With a running back, it's less to me about age. It's more about contract situation. It's worth noting some data that early breakouts, 21 to 24, peak performance for running backs

are 24 to 26. That's the age where they really are monstrously hot. Which for wide receivers is 25 to 29. Right. They go a little older. So maybe a 26-year-old running back, you make that trade. You trade away Jonathan Taylor. It's not to say he's not going to have a great season coming up. It's just if you can get a ton and retool in dynasty, fill

the coffers and still have talent, you usually should. Mike, how do you feel about looking at running backs in more of a one-year basis in dynasty? Like in one-year windows? Like is there a world where it's advisable to kind of, because the shelf life for their peak is so small, because the age cliff is so young that maybe the prescription for dynasty at running back position is just looking in one year windows.

Because planning ahead there can be difficult on, you know we have draft picks every year that fill out. Yeah, situations blow up. I mean, Travis Etienne was a top tier dynasty running back. Right. That wasn't above an age cliff, that also now has a different maybe outlook. And so I just wonder if you should,

I'm thinking about this for myself, it's like at running back outside of a true outlier special talent. And there's only a handful of those in the league at a particular time. Is there a world where we're less trading to plan for multi-year runs of a player and more trading to plan for one year or maybe two year windows

where, look, last year you could have gone and got Joe Mixon and used them for a year and been happy and you move on and you go set yourself up for a one year window somewhere. It's just a thought I'm having. I'm in that would align with how I think about the position where, you know, people, what's ... I need startup dynasty draft advice and the quick go-to one is always start your draft with wide receivers because they will be on your team for multiple years

and they wear running backs it just it it can vanish so quickly that the actual dynasty peak age is smaller the the age where they decline it's younger so it's just it's not a true foundational, to me, is not a good way to build the foundation of your team because you will have to rebuild sooner as opposed to stock up on blue chip wide receivers and then just fill in the cracks with older running backs. You're like, no, I still see value for this player.

Alvin Kamara is going to have value this year. He will Will the cliff hit him this year? I don't know like you If you're in a startup draft and you're going really really late and you started early with wide receivers you can grab Someone that's gonna matter for your team like an Aaron Jones, right? He's gonna be like people don't even an Aaron Jones, is gonna be, like, people don't even want him. He'll be playable. He'll be a playable asset, you know, or if you're not in your startup and you're wanting

to trade like Andy's saying for a one-year rental, there will be someone who, this coming year, if they're not a championship contender, Derek Henry again is like, I wanna get something for him. I know it's not gonna last forever. Those are the type of players that you can just kind of get on the cheap to fill in those gaps. Yeah, so they're not the foundation because I've seen too many teams.

They build their team that way. And for two years, you're like, holy crap, this team. When I pull it up on paper in the offseason, I look at my team and I go, why am I even going to try? How can I possibly compete with this? And then that team is in full rebuild before the end of the season. How could anyone last year have competed with my sensational team of Bijon Robinson, Breece Hall and Travis Etienne? I had three, like, top six start-up running backs, and now Travis Etienne is dead. Breece Hall is only dead to me.

If there's any silver lining of your situation is that you get to talk about it to millions of people and be an example of the fact that you can look like you are invincible and the thing is you and you would have been just to be clear you would have been beaten by somebody that was rolling out Juba Hubbard James Connor and Chase Brown last year yeah that trifecta of players would have been a better situation they wouldn't it would have beats the snot out of me and I'm not saying you can't win with those with with that going on but if you've been playing dynasty for any amount of time, rebuilds are, it's rocky, man.

Sometimes a team can rebuild in one to two years. Sometimes you look at your league, you're like, that team has been rebuilding for five seasons. And so it's- I'm a retool guy. I'm not a rebuild guy. Yes, you are the Rams, the New Orleans Saints, where you just keep pushing the salary cap forward,

hoping that the salary cap grows enough that you'll be able to handle the hits to your personal salary cap. But as we've seen for the Saints and the Rams to a lesser extent, the Rams had a period where it looked like things might be going sour. The Rams were able to pick up the pieces much quicker. Yeah, I'm hoping on that one. And then look at the Saints.

Look- They're stuck in mediocrity. When the credit man shows up, you hide under the bed. You know what I mean? Is that correct? You don't answer the door. Don't answer the door. Don't answer your mail.

Draw the shades. Don't say your name. Hide under the bed. But, um. He is not home. No, no. Hello. I haven't lived here in years.

All right. Moving on. News and notes from around the league. Well, I believe on our last episode, when we were trying to have the fun discussion about Jameis Winston I was like yeah but Russ is gonna be their quarterback and Russell Wilson signs a one-year deal. The people hate it! They're so angry. We hate it! There's no more. Oh that's a long boo.

There's no more opposite. We hate it! Locker room speech than the Russell Wilson speech versus the Jameis Winston speech, then the Russell Wilson speech versus the James Winston speech. I have Russell Wilson's... Russell Wilson's locker room speech. Do you? Unlimited diarrhea. Unlimited. How?

I don't care, man. James Winston, crazy and authentic. Russell Wilson, crazy inauthentic. But he's now the starting quarterback for the Giants. Or presumably. I don't, look, the Steelers infamously made the switch from a winning season with Justin Fields over to Russ, and it started awesome. The egg was all over my face because I thought it was a silly move.

I'm like, you're winning with Fields. Roll with Fields. Put Russ out there. Offense improves. you're winning with fields. Roll with fields. Put Russ out there. Offense improves. They're looking fantastic from week 7-14. They go 6-1 in that time with Russ. And then Owen Ford end the season. And Russell Wilson looks like he shouldn't.

He doesn't belong on a football field anymore. And I'm not so like, yes, he can play. But what is the point? What is the point is the Giants? You're not your coaching staff. You're not saving your job with Russell Wilson You're not saving your job with job with Jamis. So why even invest money into Russell's? There's different just get Jamis and fix other stuff So I don't disagree and you can easily say look Pittsburgh this deal. It's a 10.5 Guaranteed deal if Pittsburgh thought that Russ was their best open-market option

They would have brought him back immediately Which means that they genuinely believe that Aaron Rodgers or somebody else that they find will be better than Russell Wilson for this team Because it's not like Mike Tomlin's not up against it, right? Like he's he's he's facing I mean, I know he keeps coming up with these winning seasons, but there's a fatigue growing in Pittsburgh with the kind of. They don't win in the playoffs. Yeah, we don't win in the,

we haven't won a playoff game in years. We haven't found our solution post-Big Ben. We know that we can't win a Super Bowl, much less a playoff game right now. And yet Russell wasn't the choice. It might be Aaron Rodgers or somebody else. But there's also the side with the Giants where you're like, okay, fill in the blank

outside of Russell Wilson. I mean, you're picking at six. There's a good chance that- That could get Shadoor. Maybe, but Shadoor's probably not bringing you further than Russ this year. Mind you, their win total did not change from three and a half wins. It went all the way to three and did not change from three and a half wins.

It went all the way to three and a half wins. And we looked at the schedule. Three wins is, I think they'll get three. Yeah. And they're picking at three, speaking of three. No, they're picking at six. The Giants? The Giants? The Giants are three. Six is the Raiders. Oh, you're right. I think you have have a very it's a gamble. Of course, when you're talking about quarterbacks, I think there is a near 100% chance that Sanders is available at three. Well, maybe they take it. I would agree that he's available. Whether they'll pull the trigger on that is very questionable. This is a coaching staff that really wants to win

now to save their job, which is why they're going out and getting veteran quarterbacks. They've said this is not stopping them from taking a quarterback at three, and I could see that happening. It's just what... I mean, how do we not have cameras in there? If a rookie has to come in under the tutelage of these two caricatures, what must-see TV that would be? All right, can we get the Giants locker room for Hard Knocks? Just even a live cam. Again? Again?

I don't think the Giants will ever sign on to do that show again. No, they won't. They'll be like, no, you are under official orders from Roger Goodell, and they'll say, no, we're still not going to do it. Stephon Diggs, three-year deal with the New England Patriots, 26 million guaranteed. He was the wide receiver 11 last year before injury, averaging 8 targets, 62 receiving yards per game. He is 31.2 years old. This is the New England Patriots paying a stink, you

called it a stink tax. Stink tax. This is the way that you acquire players when you are at the bottom of the league sometimes. Your Stiggs is at the end of his career. Remember the Christian Kirk contract? All you are at the bottom of the league sometimes? When you're Stiggs, Stiggs is at the end of his career. Remember the Christian Kirk contract? All good players at the end of their career genuinely have to make the choice. They genuinely have to say, do I take a discount to go play for a contender, try to get my Super Bowl? This is my last contract. Or do I take that money?

And this was a three-year deal worth up to $69 million. That's a pretty nice deal for Stefan Diggs So I don't blame him and and the truth is for the Patriots I don't like this is a bad like I can't believe how much money someone's giving out for this version of Stefan Diggs Coming off a week 8 ACL But I don't blame them because they have all the money to give their the salary cap was wide open to have to pay players They need wide receivers so bad. It's a huge upgrade for them.

It is an upgrade for them. And it wouldn't be an upgrade for every team. No, it's great for Drake May. I think this makes a lot of sense. For fantasy purposes, you have to be more, I'm not bullish on Stephon Diggs just changing Drake May into a fantasy superstar, but it's certainly a positive for Drake May certainly I'm open-minded for Drake May

I'm open-minded for Drake May this year. I already was yeah, that's for so but I'm also I'm also scared because I Was a guy that thought Will Levis might be able to get it done with a new head coach and that didn't happen but I I like the fact that they added somebody finally to a receiving room that needed it desperately and we'll see what happens. I mean, Diggs they say is healthy. They were healthy, he's healthy enough for them to-

Oh, he's gotta be ahead of schedule. It was reported that he is exactly on schedule, which is ahead of schedule. Being ahead of schedule is now on schedule, which is ahead of schedule. Being ahead of schedule is now on schedule. But they also said that he's supposed to be ready for week one. Original timeline from that surgery date, we would not have put it, we would have said,

good chance to start on the pop. But what's been reported since the signing is that it looks like he will be ready for week one. All right, what else do we have? Chris Godwin hitting all the milestones in his rehab. We knew he was doing well. And Rodgers likely to play for the Steelers if he doesn't retire.

Stop talking about him. It is. I mean, the only holdout now has to be on Rodgers' side. He still thinks that he can weasel his way into the Minnesota Vikings and play for a Super Bowl contending team. But dude, it's the Steelers. This is it.

Go sign your contract if you actually want to play. Go to the Steelers. You have a chance to win. Stay away from my Vikings. We'll find out in the next six to eight months where he's going to play. All right, that is going to be it for the news. We'll take a break. We'll hit regress or impress. I

Don't know what are you doing? I don't know what I mean the podcast listeners Sometimes it's a blessing to only listen because whatever we just saw but not today today. Today. What was that? You wanted to see a very good unimpressive Andy Holloway. Oh, I thought I looked great. I mean, I was gold plated. You were gold plated. I mentioned it at the top. We're talking about some second half studs. Regress or impress. Will they keep up their second half pace? What do you guys believe and will they deliver on their ADP? Most importantly, right? Will they keep up their second half pace? What do you guys believe and will they deliver on their ADP most importantly, right? Where they're being drafted? We'll start with the quarterback, Jared Goff. This was a player, you know, Goff was 17.6 points per game in the

first half, QB 15. In the second half of the season, he jumped up to 23.7 points per game. Good enough for the quarterback four. In fact, Goff had the kind of year that is very worthy of an MVP. I was so close, guys. You did, that was your- I went bold prediction, top five, and he was the MVP, and he was the quarterback six,

and he had a resume that frequently wins the MVP. If you had gone top five finish and top five MVP voting, you would have been there. There you go. Yeah, quarterbacks with four. Not very bold though. Eh, fair enough. Quarterbacks, yeah, he's gonna be- He's gonna finish top five in the voting. I mean, but golf, top five in MVP voting, that's, I don't know, that seems bold still. But- Yeah, I mean, teams with 14 wins, whose quarterback threw for 4,635 which Jared Goff checks that box You've got a handful of them Dan Marino Kurt Warner Tom Brady Aaron Rodgers Patrick Mahomes

Every single one of those players won the MVP Patrick Mahomes did it twice one of those years He didn't win it and Jared Goff didn't win it this last year, but you were close this was a year in which the dominator term was not as pronounced as in when he's at home in a dome He was still three points a game better, but like you go back two years He was ten points a game better than he was six points a game better. So more even play home and road. Um, it was an impressive year. I am a, you know, we all love Amon Ra. We like Sam Laporta. We like Jameer Gibbs in the passing game.

We like Montgomery in the passing game. And I'm a big Jameson Williams fan. So all the weapons, the offensive line, everything is in place for, you know, the Lions, I think, have the coaching staff or a head coach, I should say, at this point to maintain a level of excellence and aggressiveness and all, you know, I just feel very confident that they have a system in place that goes beyond losing their offensive coordinator. Do you guys feel like that second half was just a little run for Jared Goff? Or is he gonna be in fantasy consideration? He'll always be in streaming consideration

based on the matchup, but I'm gonna have to, I would call this one a regress as the, when it really turned on for Jared Goff in the offense was when the offense had no choice but to go full throttle because of all the losses on the defensive side of the football. I know they had a couple games here in the middle where they're holding opponents down but generally speaking if like when they're winning these games where they're they're scoring in the 20s which like

that's still a lot of points. I mean the the Lions scored so many freaking points per game in this season it was outrageous so you just naturally I would start my expectations saying they're not gonna hit that again because teams usually don't but when the Lions are scoring you know 20 something points a game Goff is fine. He's just fine. It's when things really explode that you get the, you don't have to worry as much about all the rushing

touchdowns. David Montgomery, like six points from every single game, that goes to David Montgomery because he's getting a rushing touchdown. That's just how the team operated last year. And so with the rest of the points, you have to hope that Goff gets all the touchdowns. So I don't know that he's going to hit 37 again.

Yeah, I mean, losing Ben Johnson and other offensive coaches is a slight problem. But it really is, if you just look at the data of history, the teams that finished number one in scoring don't usually do that again the next year. And if you look at how they did this year, they scored 33.1 points per game. That is wildly high.

The gap between them and the number two team is about the same between two and seven. So they really did kind of lap the field with their points scored. It's just very unlikely that they repeat such a magical offensive system. Even if they're great, they could be top three next year in scoring, but that would still- What were they in 2023? Because- I believe they were number three. They were high, and then if you had made the bet that they were going to regress

They were numbers in correct. They were number five I got I just bring that up as the devil's advocate because you've got a top They were great in 2023, right? Right. Yeah I mean he was he was the quarterback seven in 2023 is the quarterback six last year, right? So you've got two consecutive top ten years being drafted as the quarterback 11 If you buy the fact that this system, this team, the structure, the players, the talent are not going to go far off the mark, right? Because there's other things than just total points per game, right? There's a, there's

big place, right? There's Jameson Williams not being suspended for parts of the year or being more integral for big plays. And Sam Laporta going back to his touchdown total of 2023. And less rushing touchdowns maybe. Montgomery's not as effective. There's just other ways. Yes, there are ways. I look at them like Baker Mayfield

and the Buccaneers offense. You've had two consecutive years with that system. The offensive coordinator's changed, but the structure of the team and the talent is the same. I mean- The difference is consistency. Like I know the home road splits talent is the same. I mean, the difference is consistency. Like, I know the home road splits were a little bit better for Goff,

but this year, which was his better year, where he was amazing and number six in fantasy, he was not actually, like if you had him, if you started him every week, that wasn't a good process. It was tough. 41% of his games hit 20 points. He was a C in consistency. He had some big games at down the stretch when their defense was bad. Moore had to go on his shoulders without

David Montgomery. I just don't think he's drafted a quarterback 11. Yeah, I don't mind that discussion. I'm thinking of it in terms of fantasy finish. I wasn't thinking of it in terms of do I want to start him every week or anything like that? More just do I think over 17 weeks that he's going to have the kind of games with this offense and the talent to get to quarterback eight, quarterback seven? I think probably. So if you're asking at quarterback 11, will he finish ahead of that ADP, fantasy finish wise on the course of the season, I would say probably.

He'll probably be top 10. He's been top 10 the last three years in a row. That doesn't make it a good pick. It would be a bad pick if you picked him at quarterback 11 and he finishes a quarterback eight with a season like he had this year. That's not going to help you win championship games. That's why we have the Truth series. Yeah, the bigger discussion is just do you want him as an every week starter or a streamer? And I think we're all

in the streamer category. Yeah. Jerry Judy, though. This was an absolutely amazing story. You're talking about irrelevance in the first half of the season last year. 7.2 points per game. Wide receiver 50. SOJ.

Same old Judy. Yep. I had no idea where that was gonna go. He was the wide receiver 50 the year prior ah so Soj soj but the bye week After the bye week Why do she were five seventeen point three points per game pure magma? I?

Mean this was this was one of if not the best wide receiver you could have had during that time I mean this was one of, if not the best wide receiver you could have had during that time. So, you know, wide receiver four, 21-1, 19-11, peak performances, consistency, target share, yards per game, over 100 yards per game from weeks 11 through 18. James did not play in weeks 16 through 18, still had a top 24 finish with basically nobody a quarterback. This was the guy that when they went and made the acquisition of Jerry Judy, and we're all kind of going, well, why are you doing that? This is what you hope you get from a player of that draft pedigree and talent. Drafted to be great, top 15 pick in the first round.

Who started week 17? Was it DTR? I believe it was. Or was it somebody else? It was DTR. Wasn't? I believe so. Jerry Chudy had 18 targets. It took him 18 targets to get to 94 yards. That game? Yeah. Yeah. Like that is, is is anyone I still believe is anyone gonna make the case for him? Cuz I would be oh you t I'm not gonna nobody's gonna make an impress if it means wide receiver five No, not even wide receiver, but I think But do I do I think he could be a wide receiver too. I do I think it could be a wide receiver too in Cleveland I mean Marty Cooper is long gone. He showed

from weeks 11 on When he had that opportunity What he could do with target volume. There's this is not the Nick Chubb show anymore. I still believe Kirk Cousins will be a Cleveland Brown So that you're going with that the the projection. Yeah, I mean, I think why don't know who's thrown to them Yeah, it's a far cry from wide receiver 50 to wide receiver 24 Which would be a wide receiver to and I think he's in that that kind of a jump well, he's been there the year prior to being wide receiver 50 the SOJ he was the wide receiver 20. So we know that's in his range of outcomes

He can finish as a wide receiver to he's done it before 25 point nine years old he is. Yeah, he's young, he's not a bad wide receiver, but let's just talk about his talent. Did you see, did you believe that he was more talented during the second half of last year, as far as his ability, his, you know, did he grow up on the NFL field, or did he just have different quarterback play?

Like, was it both, or just one of- It was definitely not just one. I mean, I think it was both. I think he was a more consistent player on a snap-to-snap basis yes and I think it came with confidence it came with big performances I mean he was on pace for 121 receptions for 1700 yards and six and a half touchdowns in that stretch hundred and had a 80 target he target. He had 142 yard game, a 235 yard game, a 108. This was, oh, I can do that.

Yeah, that's what I saw. The Browns threw the ball 661 times last year. Like that's not, that's not Stefanski football. That's not Cleveland Browns football. I would, I want, I want. His ADP's gotta be low. I want Jerry to be good. I will say this, his ADP right now is wide receiver 35.

Okay, I'm happy, okay. He should absolutely beat that. I'm happy with that. I mean the real question here is quarterback, and we don't have the answer, whether Kenny Pickett's gonna be playing, whether it's gonna be Shidwar Sanders, whether it's whoever, we don't know who's throwing the ball.

And it makes a humongous difference. Is there anyone? But will ADP change with any of the answers that you just possibly said? Well, not with the answers I said. But there's still rumors of Kirk Cousins being the one to eventually land there. If Kirk Cousins were there, Jerry Judy should be great.

I don't think he's skyrockets though in ADP. Probably not high enough. I mean, if I could get him in the wide receiver 30 or below, I feel like I'm stealing. Because not many players being drafted at that level could perform at the rate we saw last year. And maybe it's just Jamis. You could say that. I think it's just Jamis. You could say that. But... Yeah, I think it's just Jamis. Yeah, I'm more on that side of the Jamis Plus passing volume because the team had lost control of itself. I mean, this was year five. I feel like Jerry Judy didn't level up halfway through year

five when his quarterback changed. He just didn't become a better player. What quarterbacks did he have in Denver? Well, the... Rusts? Yeah, I would have to go back and look. Not impressive so far. Well, the Rusts year, there was a lot of touchdowns, if I'm remembering it right.

Yeah, was Drew Lock thrown in the ball? I would have to look all this up. I mean, to answer your quarterback question, he's not had it. No, that's fair. And he had been banged up and falling out of favor I I just think at 25 is not over. So what Jerry Judy entered the league in 2020 so the leading passers since then you had Drew Locke, Teddy Bridgewater, and then you had two years

of Russ. And Rippin Farts farts Good old Brett there was there was quarterback carousel there for sure yeah, so I don't know I mean the regressor impressed. I think I'd all be on the regression from the second half I'm gonna be honest guys I have no memory of Teddy Bridgewater being on the Denver Broncos when I said it was like I'm going to quadruple check this Do you remember this You verified it? Yeah, this happened. 2021. 2021.

No one remembers this. I have no answer for you. Yeah, it was sort of pandemic time. Who remembers anything? Was there a crowd in the audience? 21 there would have been, yeah. Yeah, I mean- You went seven and seven as a starter.

Judy's one of those- You played 14 games? He was their leading been, yeah. Yeah, I mean. You went seven and seven as a starter. Judy's one of those. You played 14 games? He was their leading passer, man. Can I, I mean, look, this was a player that was on a team with Kendall Hinton starting a game. Oh, the Hinton game. With Jeff Driscoll and Drew Locke and Brett Rippon and Teddy Bridgewater.

Like, there is nobody, I mean, Russell Wilson's the best quarterback he had had until Jameis went wild. Yeah man that Judy's gonna be a tough one but if the ADP stays where it is then some of my teams I'll sprinkle them in. Sprinkle some Judy? Yeah. Chase Brown.

That's what they say. Chase Brown was the running back 19 in the first half of the year which was you know that was great relative to draft position still. However, he was the running back eight in the second half of the year with just a ton of top 10 finishes. He had- Once they stopped the Moss experiment.

Well, he- Well, Moss stopped it. The Moss got, yeah, he got hurt, but it was kind of, you could see it happening by around week four that Chase Brown was gonna take over. Let me put it in context for you. His points per game was 17.4 points per game. If you stack that up on the year,

that would be good enough points per game-wise to only trail Saquon, Gibbs, Henry, and Bijon. That's it. Yeah, he was awesome. That would be running back five in points per game. Oh, maybe I'm wrong about the hold on Let me double check the the points per game. The 17 was his points per game. I believe in the second half Yeah, yeah, I'm saying the second half that we're talking about would put him in that category Yeah, it would be running back five in points per game So do you believe that that continues with what they have on offense? They're spending money. The odds of them, I mean, they're not adding somebody

in free agency at running back. They could add a rookie, but this is a team that is probably not entrusting a ton of backfield share to a rookie who has to pass protect for Joe Burrow. And Chase Brown proved that he could play with Joe Burrow and be that outlet and be that effective player. They need defensive players. They might be spending more money on, by the time this show releases, who knows, maybe Trey Henderson has a contract. There's some rumors abound.

Everything is the NFL draft. I lean that they're not gonna actually spend any high draft capital on a running back. Like early on in the off season, Chase Brown was a player. I'm like, I think I wanna trade him away because someone's gonna be out there and they will give me a ton for Chase Brown. Over the last month, you know,

I've revisited that and I've changed it. And my stat for Chase Brown is I went back and looked at all running backs drafted since 2014. Okay, so that's my player pool. Running backs who broke out in year two, meaning they finished as a top 24 running back, the next year, their hit rate at ADP is 68%. That's great.

This is one of the best bets you can make at ADP. And when I say ADP, I'm talking about, they're drafted as running back 10. What do I expect the running back 10 to score on points per game? And guys who break out in year two, they hit at a high rate, and on top of that, 40% of that

pool exceed their ADP by two points per game. These are big time hit players. Chase Brown, assuming that the NFL draft goes, as I now feel it's going to go for the Bengals, Chase Brown will be one of my premier draft targets. There are players that enter this strange draft position category where they kind of, you know, his ADP is RB 13. That's fine, I'll take it. And they kind of either are going. Really, is that low?

They're either gonna disappoint off of it. I think that's low. For the way that he finished. I think it's high. And I'm with you on that. And he's on the bangles. But a lot of the times, because we're not willing to crown them on half a season,

their ADP slots into this spot where it's like, okay, it's not really representative of what they could do. It's just representative of risk. And it's like, if Chase Brown is the starter, RB13 makes no sense. He will be higher than that probably. But if Chase Brown is supplanted, he'll probably be lower if he underwhelms.

But being RB13 doesn't seem like it's the range of outcomes. Yeah, it's a really, really tough situation because if this was last year's NFL draft, I would be very bullish going in on Chase Brown. It is worth noting that Chase Brown was really a volume king. He wasn't efficient.

I like it. I like it. Swish. Okay. He called the swish for it. Yeah. I mean, among 46 qualifying running backs with 100 or more carries, he was 33rd in yards after contact, 26th in forced missed tackles. And then as a receiver, he had a good stat line, but it really was middling, you know, 35th out of 67 running backs in yards per outrun, 61st out of 67 in yards after catch per reception. So it was volume. Is this on the whole year? Or is that on just the second half?

That's the whole year, but it's efficiency numbers. So it really shouldn't, it should be worse as he gets more volume. The thing is is he had over the second half of the year twenty four point four opportunities per game. Yes sir. Only Saquon was higher than that. He was averaging eighty six percent of snap. So if they bring remind you of anybody Kiron no. The guy who used to be the running back for the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Mixon? Yeah. Yeah, inefficient, but got all the volume and finished great. The question is with this year's draft, let me just throw some names out there because

this is a deep draft class and they don't have to spend a first or second round pick. They can get Devon Neal. They could get Quincyon Judkins. They could get- Ah, you're not getting Judkins on, are you talking day three? No, like a third round. Third round pick. Yeah, but that's what-

Caleb Johnson? That's what I'm saying. I think it'll be wild for the Bengals to use a running back. But keep, sorry, keep going. So Caleb Johnson, Cam Scataboo, Devon Neal, Judkins, and let's throw RJ Harvey in there as well. If they grab one of those five, there's just a there as well. If they grab one of those five, there's just a lot of options. If they grab one of those five, will you still be bullish on?

Impressed. You're going full Impressed. Yeah, my man. I watched him. It's beyond the stat lines. If you just look at the second half stat lines, the volumes there, the Kyron numbers, like you said, you'd be over 1,300 rushing yards. This would be, the more impressive number of me is seeing what he did in the passing game for Joe Burrow. On the second half of the season, he's on pace for 80 catches. And he will do that again if he's a starter.

And so to me, this is like, this is like Eckler before he's Eckler. If they believe in him, those names you said don't scare me. If you say Omarion Hampton or something that I'm scared. But those names don't scare me because I don't believe that the way that this team is organized. I mean people thought that Khalil Herbert was going to get play on this team when he got traded over but he's had good performances for Chicago. They couldn't see the field. They don't want to do it. They want the guy they trust.

So I'm trying to do my best to kind of talk you out of it to see if you're not there. I'm equally on the impressed side. I remember- You fooled me. Tricky, tricky man. I remember last year watching as a, as a Breeze Hall manager, watching Chase Brown play and being like,

dude, you can make some plays? Like he did things that looked special. And I realized some of those efficiency numbers might not be great, but when you watched the film- Bruce, that's a fifth round pick on the field. You stink. When you watched the film, it was like he was making moves. He was reliable.

He was a very important piece of an offense that had great success. They don't look at it and see these inefficiency numbers and think that he was- Oh, no, they don't. ... not effective. I think they look and they say, this was a great player for us. He's only in year two. They've got him two more years under his rookie contract.

I think they're gonna roll him next year and he should be great for fantasy. We will take a break momentarily. We got a couple more names to get into before we close things out. But yeah, I'm with you and I think none of us went into last season thinking Chase Brown was a special talent necessarily.

He had juice. He had juice, but not a complete talent. And I think that changed for me watching him and it changed for the team. I don't know if they knew that they could trust him to the degree that they did last year. Sometimes players gotta get on the field and then all of a sudden you're like, wow,

that's like a legitimate running back. I think we thought undersized, complementary back. Yeah, I mean, it's funny because he looks undersized, but he's like, he's 210 pounds, he can take the work. Well, that's fine, that's better than Kyron and some of those other backs, so I. He's bigger than Kyron? Weight-wise.

Interesting. I know, it doesn't look like it. Dude, the color of your uniform messes with you, man. I know it doesn't it doesn't look like it dude it Called the color of your uniform messes with you, and I'm serious like it was Like when Pierre Garçon went from the Colts to Washington is like that guy gained 50 pounds what? Interesting What uniform should I be wearing? Well, it's usually a black polo. This was if you want to be slim. Oh yeah.

Kyle, deep dive on uniform color about who looks bigger. It's right. The people need to know. Find the database of looks. I guarantee Kyle has this database. Yeah, give him 10 minutes. All right, let's take a break and then we'll talk about Bucky Irving

and another interesting name that we didn't think would be relevant but was super relevant. All right we are resuming our regress or impress segment. Just to rehash here, Jared Goff we were all on the regress side. It's just a high bar. Yeah, don't want to be but I think so. Jerry Judy, I think we're all in the regress compared to the second half wide receiver five,

but I certainly believe he'll be much better than the first half numbers. Chase Brown, we were all on the impressed side. We think that RB1 season is in store. Current landscape of the Bengals. Don't play that sound bite if they draft a superstar running back and then Jay where are you? When I heard the RB 13 I'm I just I felt like that was low where where the market would place him

I but like thinking through it So I'm gonna like because you're on we're all on the same side here if we want chase Brown and our team Mm-hmm, and it's like chase brown or Breeze chase brown or Johnny Taylor like I think I'm taking chase brown over those guys I would definitely take Jonathan Taylor over chase brown, but I Can't do breeze anymore It's just okay can't do it all right You know, it would be a really good drop for Breeze?

If I could. No, no. I was going to see if I could. I mean, I got to go to archives to find this thing. Oh, we're diving deep? Yeah, I'll see if I can find it later. But let's talk about Bucky Irving first. Bucky Irving in this category is a little weird because first half, second half contrasts

with a rookie. I expect it to be pretty vast, right? Even if you're a premier rookie, you should have, we've seen progression, right? We've seen players that they get more work, they get more opportunity. He was the RB27 in the first half. That's not bad as a rookie that wasn't expected to do great things. You're not a day one or day two pick. But RB 6, that was the second half.

17.9 points per game. And do you believe, as a player being drafted now as RB9, that you're going to get the same type of performance? So we know that the offense is, it's gonna be, I mean, look, OC, not withstanding of that, but the offensive piece is, it's gonna be the same guys, and I am super bullish on Bucky moving forward. It feels kind of like a weird place to be of that player

with his arc type, his body size, and then his... Draft capital. Draft capital, and then, and the combine numbers for him. We're not, like, you didn't blow anybody away with how overly athletic he was. Just got on the field and was an absolute stud among all running backs from 75. Like Kareem Hunt as a rookie?

Kareem Hunt was a third round pick at least. What was Bucky? Fourth. Okay. He was a fourth. I feel like we can still compare them. And Kareem Hunt was a sturdier fellow where Bucky was a 195.

But from the run in the 40, the combine numbers, obviously neither player sold themselves into the first and second round. And yet on the field, speed and agility stuff translated differently. So he's fifth in yards per carry, an eighth in explosive rush rate, third in force missed tackles per attempt.

And that stat I was giving you, the ADP study of the year two breakouts for running back, it is only bested by year one running back breakouts. Guys who break out in year one, who finish in the top 24, heading into year two, they hit their ADP expectation almost 70% of the time, and 42% of the time you get the big time breakout. So it.

And that has to include injuries. Like when a player goes out and at no fault of their own gets injured and they don't return on ADP, you would expect those numbers. But these are points per game. This isn't just your finish. It's how when you're on the field, how are you actually performing? Well, people don't want Phillip Lindsay. They don't want Steve Slayton,

they don't want One Year Wonder with Bucky Irving, and you don't expect it to be a One Year Wonder. I do not at all, and then a hat tip to Matthew Barry, who every year at the Combine, he gathers as much intel and rumors as he can, and he often brings us really good stuff. And he said, I'm talking to people who are associated with the Bucks and their love for Bucky Irving

is through the moon, as it should be, but it's just, it's great to. That's not through the roof, that's through, that's way up there. Yeah, you know how much further away the moon is than your roof? He said through the moon. Yeah.

The moon cannot contain their love no not no rocky planet big rock No roof can normally contain the love sometimes you break the roof now you can go through Well, she imagined how much harder it is to break through the moon than a roof Yeah, if anyone could do it at least three times harder Three yes But he's gonna he's gonna be awesome. So RB9, regressor impressed. I'll take him in RB9.

Absolutely impressed. I'll take him. So 5.42 of Kerry, when you talk about Chase Brown, Chase Brown was at 4.2. I often caution people from going too hot on. Yes, yeah, Damian Pierce. Exactly, so Damian Pierce, it's hard to remember now, but going into his sophomore year, everyone was hot and bothered for him. He was such a sensational rookie, but he didn't have the

draft capital and it was like, he's going to break out. And the thing is, is we've seen it a lot. Like the data on that is very, very bad for, you know, Andy, you talked about, you think you compare the third round and the fourth round, it really is massively different because that's the difference in draft day, right? Like day two picks when general managers are putting their boards together, the way that they value a day two pick versus day three, four, five, and you know, the rounds four, five, six, seven, they're all, you know, lumped together versus two and three on day two day four and beyond picks rookie running backs who break out do not often repeat and so I was banging the table to

like be cautious with Damien Pierce to me Bucky Irving is too good to do that I am retracting the data and saying he is an outlier on talent. Data retraction? Data retraction. He was just, he was genuinely the best running back on the team by a wide margin. The team had a guy that they trusted, that they liked in Rashad White, and they just were forced to continue to put Bucky Irving on the field more and more and more and now this offseason you're hearing that that's their dude. I love the Buccaneers offense. Yeah. For fantasy I

love it. Yeah. I love watching it. It's not just one that gives you numbers that you don't like watching. It's just fun. They are. Bakers in complete control of the offense. It's not just luck. Yeah, it's funny, like, when I watch the Buccaneers offense, I like watching the Lions. They're great. But I don't have as much fun watching the Lions offense, which scored more points. I enjoy the Lions quite a bit.

But Jared Goff doesn't give you the shenanigans of Baker mania. Baker, he's fun to watch. All right, let's make this one quick, guys. Regressor impressed John U. Smith, who went from the tight end 20 to the tight end one over the second half of the year. Yes, that is the tight end one. 14.8 points per game in the second half.

Tight end two, three, three, five, two, 10, 13, five, to finish the year. Seven top five finishes. The old year eight breakout. I mean, look, I mean, there's part of, there's part of. He was top 10 in 2020. I was gonna say, there's part of me that always, on a per play basis, we always have believed in Johnny Smith.

Yeah. It's just that Johnny Smith somehow never profiled as an every play kind of guy. And the signing in New England was supposed to be exciting and fun because of what Bill Belichick had done with tight ends in the past, and we didn't get that from Johnny Smith and part of it was you know sharing time. They brought Hunter Henry in at the same time they brought him in and then in Atlanta we're

like why is he getting snaps ahead of the superstar Kyle Pitts and now we're like oh that's why because Johnny Smith's good and Kyle Pitts isn't. So you know this Miami offense if we either we either have to believe that they'll return to something that we saw two years ago, throw the ball down the field, and then Tyreek and Waddle will be great, or we have to believe that they're intentionally gonna protect to, that this offense of 70 plus percent

completion percentage is the way that they wanna do things, in which case I feel like you have to say you believe in Johnny Smith. I do believe in Johnny Smith. Really, so you're an impress. I'm an impress. What's his draft position at tight end? Can't be that high.

I don't have. Tight end seven. I'm surprised he's that high, but we saw this before, once ever, and it was when a year nine breakout happened for a tight end who switched teams and it reminds me a lot of the same because it was a player that was good but just wasn't given the opportunity was Delaney Walker talking about Hubert Hubert I just found out that his name is Hubert Delaney Hubert Delaney Walker Wow eat that Kyle I see why he would go by Delaney. Yeah, you don't wanna be Hubert.

When Delaney is an upgrade, I mean Delaney's not a great name. Oh, Delaney's a good name. It's not great. But Hubert? Hubert's worse. I feel like Delaney's a better name. Not Herbert?

Delaney's a better last name. I agree. Delaney Walker. Would you wanna be Hubert? I mean, no. That's not how you say it, is it? That's how I say it. Hubert?

Or is it Hubbert? Well, that doesn't sound right either. H- that's how I say you boys or is it Hubbard well That doesn't sound right either. That's you H. You you Bert I want you I mean if I've said it so many times it doesn't sound right old arcade game you yes Qbert Thought of it immediately But Delaney Walker had a year nine breakout You could maybe say a year eight when he switched to the Tennessee Titans and then had a long stretch as an important pass catcher for them

because he was a good player. And John who was a good player and he proved that. He switched teams, he's under contract. I think that I was impressed and I will continue to be. All right, so obviously you're not gonna impress above tight in one over the second half But you're saying you'll buy in at that ADP. Yeah tight in seven. I don't I'm right at that. What are what is the halfway point between regress and impress? Neutral there you go the Hubert rest the Hubert

guys I have Horrifically bad. Oh, I have horrifically bad news. Oh no, do you need to retract it? His name is... No, Hubert? His name was Jonathan. No, no, but Delaney, like, how old do you think Delaney Walker is? Is, right now? Yeah.

Oh, right, I bet he's our age. 40. He's younger than us. What?! What?! Delaney Walker's so old! Delaney Walker has a... has a Walker. I mean... Oh my gosh. That also means that the Hubert was being considered at the time when we were being born.

Oh no. And God blessed us with... avoiding Hubert. And now to make us feel bad, Kyle pulled this up an athletic article in 2019. No, we don't need to share this. No, we do because we're talking about Hubert. But he was named after his estranged father and he'd been teased by kids in elementary school about the name. Of course he had. That's not the kid's fault. Oh man, I couldn't get it out. We're going to hear from the Hubert's guys. Yeah, the Hubert's. There are dozens of them. The dozens of Hubert's. Please let us know. If your name is Hubert, the Hubert. Oh yeah. There are dozens of them. The dozens of Huberts. Please let us know. If your name is Hubert, the first five real Huberts that reach out, I'll have Papa Josh

send you a swag pack. Get a swag pack. I want a driver's license. Oh yeah, we need to see. And we're checking that thing for Chad GPT. We know your tricks. And we're not talking about hiding Hubert as a middle name. No, no, no, no, no.

This is first name Hubert only. First name Hubert. And you want to know how we'll know that you're here you that you're Hubert because it will come from an email that says something like Robert Timothy at gmail.com. Oh, we know you're not going by Hubert Oh, I just say they're in aol.com for sure. Oh my boy if they're if they're going by name is really Hubert All right, we will not be hearing from anybody did not expect this Thank you for joining us on today's episode. Back next week, Footcast tomorrow.

Take care. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF Ballers.