Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Shocking Stats + Fantasy Valentines - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/13

Episode Date: February 13, 2025

Fantasy Football talk for Feb 13, 2025. Shocking stats and fantasy draft implications! Will the Dolphins offense rebound this year? Can James Cook repeat his 2024 success? Plus, find out which players Andy, Mike, and Jason have early crushes on for the 2025 fantasy football season! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. Get the lowest price on the 2025 UDK at UltimateDraftKit.com - Order before March 1st for an entry to win a Listener League Spot!  Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When you sit on your aeroplan points, it's like you're sitting on your next trip, like a sunny getaway by the sea. But instead you're sitting on your aeroplan points. So the only sea you get to sit in is a sea of traffic. Use your points and go from smelling your ocean breeze air freshener to smelling the ocean breeze. So stop sitting on your next trip and start enjoying your Aeroplan points. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in!

The fantasy footballers Mike the fantasy hitman Jason Morrow Mandy Holloway welcome in for Thursday February 13th. Any big Valentine's Day plans gentlemen do you do the Valentine's Day yeah I do have big Valentine's Day plans. I'm flying to Kentucky! Oh, that's right. That's right. Is that a common Valentine's Day trip? This is the first time in my life I will be in Kentucky.

Probably the last time in my life. What are some facts you know about Kentucky? Well, a bourbon capital of the world, so I'm going to do some tours. You're gonna do some bourbon tours? Yeah, so... Whiskey. See you at the distilleries on Valentine's.

And this is just you by yourself? No, me and the- me and the missus. Okay. Gonna go taste some whiskey. Any other Kentucky, Kentucky facts you've got for us? Me and Derby's. There's a Derby that got grape fried chicken. Uh, that's about it.

I'm tapped out. Mike, anything, I know- About Kentucky? I did find out. No That's about it. Tapped out. Mike, anything? I know. About Kentucky? I did find out. No, not about Kentucky. Speaking of Kentucky, and this will sound really dumb

to those of you in the Midwest or the East Coast or that are educated, but I found out that Kentucky is significantly further east than I thought. That happens to us a little bit. Oh, where did you think it was? I thought it was Kansas, I think. You know, like.

I mean, yeah, Kansas, Kentucky, I see that. There's no way we don't, a lot of us here don't get that wrong. Oh, if you're a west coaster like us, I'm informing you right now that Kentucky's not actually dead center. The puzzle pieces could go wherever. Right, the center 80% just put them in a hopper.

Just to put you on the spot here, West Virginia, do you know where that is? I do. West Virginia is basically south of Virginia near the East Coast. Just making sure you know it's over. Yeah. Well, he just found out Georgia had a... It's by Oregon, right? He found out Georgia had a coast recently. No it doesn't. Still don't believe you. Oh, okay. I was like what? What are we talking about?

Not a coastal state. I know I was just asking about Valentine's Day plans, Mike. I know your son and Kevin Durant won't be hanging out anytime soon. No, no, they were getting into it. Which is just, was quite the surprise. You were at the Suns game and then I find out your son, well one, he goes to the Suns game

and roots for the other team. He was rooting really for Ja Morant. Yeah. You know what, that's fine. Yeah. That's fine. Yeah, okay. That's fine, were you at the game rooting for the Suns?

No, because they stink. That's true. But then he started mocking Kevin Durant. He was trying to pump up people from the Grizzlies. They didn't need it. No. They were going to win no matter what. For Valentine's Day, no.

I do not have anything planned. Yeah, me neither. Does that make me a bad husband? We have. Well, I don't know what your agreement is, but the agreement in the right household is don't worry about Valentine's Day. That's about where we are too, but if I tell people that, I do get a little embarrassed. Yeah, but now if

you're like, well Jason's bringing his spouse to Kentucky. Yeah, we're going to Tennessee. Yeah, I'm gonna go to Maine. Whoa. So I can be as far east as possible. Miles traveled equals more love. That's right. What do you think of that, Jay? I've been outdone. We have shocking stats on the show today.

It should be fun. We've picked out, I think, five or six interesting nuggets from the season. Hold on. This is for Kyle. Ah, shoot! I asked you if you knew where West Virginia was. I was just doing a bit to make sure you knew

it was on the east, despite it being called West Virginia. Oh, yeah. And I guess I tuned out, because you said it was. I said it was a little worse. A little bit south. It was a little bit north. I mean, it.

I mean, obviously it's on the western side. Yes, it's north. It's really just west. And in fact, Virginia goes all the way underneath West Virginia, so it can't be south. Well, right. It's the opposite of what I said. There must have been people listening going, oh my gosh.

And Kyle had to make sure we need to stop that. If we do add a couple of states here soon, um, do we think we can get the Dakotas to combine and like the Virginias to combine and maybe even the Carolinas? Like if we, if we want to keep around 50. Keep it at 50? Cause I think 50 is a good number. What? The 53 United States. I mean, that doesn't work. No, the songs won't be the same. And if you can't find some to combine, we will find some to get rid of. You States. I mean that doesn't work No, the songs won't be the same and if you can't find some to combine we will find some to get rid of you know

Oh, that's true. I don't know how bad we need Wyoming. You know, I don't know. I don't know either We've got to move on um, all right, we got a quick question of the day before we get into some of those stats It's a simple one. Do you have an early fantasy football crush, oh, because of Valentine's Day, for the 2025 season? Yes, I just realized that. Oh, good. Let's put that together. I'll kick us off here with mine.

I find myself higher than consensus on both the dynasty side and kind of the super early redraft ranking side on DJ Moore. He's someone that when I see where he's going I'm excited to take the shot on him. He's only 27 years old right now. He's coming off a season where this might surprise you. He caught the most passes of his career this year. Really? He did, yeah, 98th. Now, his previous high was the year prior at 96. Obviously, significantly fewer yards. Caleb Williams was not the rookie sensation that Bears fans and management had hoped, but he did show enough. I believe that Caleb Williams will figure it out.

And there's also the Ben Johnson arrival That's a big deal. That's a really exciting part Yeah, that is you know, I I think that Ben Johnson who was the belle of the ball for offensive hires this offseason and even the last two off seasons he proved with the Lions as their offensive coordinator with a Average to above average quarterback, bringing out MVP type of offensive numbers from Jared Goff. I think he can get the most out of Caleb Williams. And specifically, if you look at that slot role that is up for

grabs at Amon Ross St. Brown role, you're gonna have Odunze on the outside. I don't think Keenan Allen's gonna be back with this team. So DJ Moore should be the central first read target I I project in this offense, you know, if you look at the last two years only five wide receivers have more receptions One of them is Amon Ra St. Brown only seven wide receivers have more yards. One of them is Amon Ra st. Brown So I that role While I don't want to take anything away from Amon Ra St. Brown. So that role, while

I don't want to take anything away from Amon Ra, part of the role is being awesome. Yes. I just think DJ Moore is also a pretty awesome player, a talented guy where if you get the ball in his hands in the right situations, lead him, get him in space, we know he can do amazing things. Kind of like what we've hoped and wanted for Tarrin McLaurin forever, and we finally got there. I'll come next here. It is rookie season. I'm going to go with Trevion Henderson running back. He's out of Ohio State. No, I don't know where he is going to be drafted. I don't know when he will be drafted in the NFL draft. I would project pretty high here, at least a day two pick.

But he is so exciting. We have a lot of really good rookie running backs that are going into the league here. And Henderson is just, besides Gentie, Henderson is the one that is the most exciting to me, that if we get him with a really creative offense, that he is really going to be successful. He is so explosive.

He had a 10 plus yard gain on 24% of his attempts. That's number one in the class, even ahead of the almighty Ashton Gentry. So I'm really excited. Jason got to talk about him on the dynasty pod here. I didn't get to do it because it was last week. So I'm here proclaiming my love. Right now, he's my number two rookie prospect until we get more information. Yeah, Henderson's not my number two running back in this upcoming draft class yet. That

could change based on the NFL, but it's- All are welcome to join me. Yeah, the thing that I do love about Henderson is he has extreme explosiveness. His speed is there. And so if you're just shooting for upside, you know, he was like, when I watched him, there were a lot of flashes of Jameer Gibbs. He's not as good as Jameer Gibbs by any means,

but he had those plays that were like, whoa, no one's catching him. So yeah, he's very exciting. I think he has, I mean, he's a little bit smaller, so that will be the thing to watch. Not that that's the end, as we've seen here. You know, like Gibbs, Bucky, there's guys who are a little bit smaller and it's working,

but he just, to me, he has everything except for an extreme amount of power, which his body archetype is not one that's gonna have a bunch of power, but contact balance, he's got it, vision, he's got it, burst, top to end speed. I am so pumped for Henderson. Yeah, I think he's my running back four right now.

I don't have him in front, but for those of you that are new, maybe you haven't been listening to the Dynasty show or you're not familiar with this year's rookie class yet all four are better than like they score better in you know all my scouting than the number one running back of last year this is a much better running back draft class and it's really flip-flopped. Really? You like these guys more than Brooks? Yes more than Brooks and more than Benson from last year. I think it's a significantly better running back draft class.

And then the flip side is the wide receiver draft class. I'm not excited yet. Yeah. I was shocked that DJ Moore was on, like I hadn't seen your name pop in. I had seen he put Estin Gentian, but DJ Moore is like, he's been a player difficult for people to get excited about. Yeah, mean I get it it's it's hard to get excited about a

player who just had what appears to be a really down year with a quarterback that you're now very unsure you know going into last year you were unsure but excited going into this year you're unsure, but you're scared. I would say excited and scared would be a good combination of words for the name that I have. Jamison Williams. I'm so scared. Jamison Williams is, he's a player that when the ball

is in his hands, there is no question or doubt that he has just next level NFL talent. He's had problems being consistent, being healthy, being featured. Not betting on sports. So, you know, that's just, you know, just the normal problems. So there have been some obstacles.

There's been some bumps in the road. There's been some obstacles, but last year over a thousand- There's some parlay's in the road. There's been some obstacles, but last year over a thousand. There's some parlays in the road, Jimmy. Over a thousand yards receiving so explosive on his 58 receptions. I do think there's the opportunity for him to become more and more valuable for fantasy football.

He still finished as the wide receiver 18 missed two games due to that suspension you talked about. And very young, high draft capital, explosive, kind of fits the mold of the type of player that makes a bigger fantasy impact, even than what Amon Ra does. Amon Ra kind of has managed to be the receiver, the slot receiver, the PPR receiver that still produces for fantasy, still gets into the end zone, but not necessarily the prototype, right? The Jamar Chase, the Jefferson, a Metcalf,

those type of guys. Jamison Williams is the Jalen Waddle, the Tyree Kill. He will score on end of rounds the way Jayden Reed does, or Tyree Kill has. So I think I'm very excited about Jameson Williams moving into the future because I could see a season where you go from 58 and a thousand to, you know, maybe it's 75 and 1400.

I don't think that that's a, with 10 touchdowns, like he could score 10 touchdowns. So to me, that's a player I am consciously optimistic about. Yeah, I mean, the arrow is pointing up. It took a while because he had that large suspension early in his career. Then the smaller suspension, he had injuries, and this was such a good team. They didn't need Jameson Williams. Now he's like an active core part.

I think going into this off season and next year, he'll be better this coming season than he was this last year. And like you said, he finishes the water receiver 18 the interesting thing to me is where he's going to be drafted come August right now on early best ball ADP on underdog he's the water receiver 23 so that seems like a pretty good value yeah I'm interested in that all right let's talk some news in that. All right let's talk some news. News and notes from around the league.

Well we know it to be certain now, Kellen Moore the head coach of the New Orleans Saints. What a wild ride for Kellen Moore. I mean the fantasy nerds we were so excited for Kellen Moore, got a couple of really good years. Or like, hey, he could be another up and coming offensive mind here in the NFL. And then Dallas is like, nah, we'll see you later. He goes to the Chargers. It's not that great. And then immediately gets picked up by Philadelphia,

seemingly helps resurrect their offense from the ashes that it was a couple years ago. And now he's a head coach. I'm saying he was hot, and then it was, oh, Kellen Moore, it's going to fade into the mist. And now he's head coach. Yeah, I think the coaching carousel season worked out really well for him in the sense that everybody was scooped up first.

This was the last remaining job. He goes to the Super Bowl and wins. I do think it's a good hire. I've been excited about Colmo. I think he's a very competent offensive mind in the NFL. I mean, you've had him- It's always, sorry. Go ahead.

Yeah, you've had him lead really good offenses for now three different franchises, essentially in three years in a row. So he'll be on his fourth franchise in four years, fourth different quarterback, but he's had success everywhere. It hasn't necessarily been overwhelming, like, oh, they were top five offense, but he hasn't been bad anywhere. It's a big transition for him. And we saw this literally, the head coach they could have hired that they wanted to hire, it's been reported ahead of Kellen Moore who turned it down was Cliff Kingsbury. Cliff Kingsbury, great offensive mind, turned it around with Jaden Daniels in Washington,

and yet maybe the head coaching job wasn't for him. Being focused on the offense and not leading a locker room. So that'll be new. Brandon Staley's gonna take over the defense, I believe, in New Orleans. So it will look different there. So see, wait, so Brandon Staley, Brandon Staley was the head coach

when he was the offensive coordinator. Right. Right? And so now, have we ever seen that? I don't know that we have now that you're mentioning it. I didn't realize until this second. Were those aligned? I think those were aligned, yeah, right? Because, yeah.

Wow, yeah, so they flipped jobs. So you used to work for. I'm the captain now. Kyle, you've got to see if this has ever happened before, at least in such quick succession. It's not like, oh, a decade later, I bring someone back that I used to. This is two years. This is, yeah, the year after next,

you will work for me and I will be that coach. How funny. That's wild. Bobby Slawick, who he went from the hotness to the nutness, is now the senior passing game coordinator for the Dolphins, who we will talk about on today's show in the Shocking Stats. Oh man.

And we won't talk about them positively. Yeah, do you believe that when it is, say, second and 11, as the passing game coordinator, he will recommend not passing? Will he say, like, we should run? Because that's sure what he did as an offensive coordinator. Yeah, we hope not, we hope not. Travis Kelsey says he's gonna take some time to decide whether he'll return to the Chiefs. You guys have a early gut... you know, guess

for what's gonna happen. I don't know if I have a full early gut, but if you actually listen to the quote, I mean it's Kelsey on his podcast talking to his brother, and he just lost the Super Bowl. And it wasn't a, like they got him thoroughly embarrassed. And I think he's just, I mean, he's still really feeling the emotions of the loss. So he had, what was it, like a week before the Super Bowl, he was talking about how he has so much football left in him.

So I think that it is a, it's just dealing with the weight of that massive loss and I don't know that he's actually ready to retire, but like when you're listening to him do this quote, it sure sounds like he's ready. Yeah, I mean, I don't think he wants to go out like that. I mean, not just losing the Super Bowl. I think he could go out on a season

where they don't get to the Super Bowl and whatever, but it was a really bad game for him. I mean, there's been so many, you know, if you're on Twitter, you see all these clips. There's a handful of them. Some are not fair to him, but there are some that's like, wow, he missed on this, he whiffed on that, he looks slower.

A missin' whiff. A missin' whiff, but on that podcast, he talks about how it was a really bad game for him. Not just on his play, but on the sidelines, like motivating, lifting people up. Yeah, he said I needed to be a better leader. Yeah, and so it's like, I don't think that is why he wants his final game of his career to be.

I expect him to play. I do expect him to continue naturally to get worse. I think he'll retire. That's your call? It's the first time I've thought that. Right now I think he'll retire. Your odds of getting to the Super Bowl, I know you're the Chiefs, but they're not high.

So if you wanna go out in a Super Bowl, I mean, I know you didn't win it, but if your skills are declining, if you don't have the fire. I believe the odds of getting to the Super Bowl are 85% in the Patrick Mahomes era. Maybe it's, maybe not anymore. Yeah.

Maybe we're gonna enter the burrow zone. I mean, if anyone is set up for a- Getting the zone. Burrow zone. Sorry. What? You hijacked my point for that? When you're going to interrupt with a great joke, I'm for it every single time. That was a bad joke. I will concur and I will agree. I need an apology. But I won't apologize because I assume you were saying something that wasn't important.

So you know, it's like we're even. That's fair. Talking about Travis Kelsey is set up. Most of these guys, I'm sure, have absolutely no idea. Football has been your life, and now football's gone? What do you possibly do? Travis Kelsey has some stuff lined up. Oh, yeah. I mean, he'll have whatever he wants. Yes.

Jordan Addison filed for a continuation of his DUI case, pre-trial hearing March 12th. Don't forget Addison, big year, really got it going, but still has to deal with this DUI case. Mike McDonald, Seahawks are working through whether Lockett will be on the roster in 2025. I know you guys had talked about him leaving. I had assumed

that he would restructure. I don't think he's at 33 years old, a prime candidate for being picked up and having a role somewhere else. We'll see what happens. His cap hit is way too high. Yeah, it's up to the Seahawks as to whether they want to pay for more of Tyler Lockett's services. Because if they do, they'll have to restructure, kick the money out a little further. But I'm not sure if they're- It looks like that's what they're figuring out. It's working through whether both sides can agree to something.

Yeah, when they evaluate the play, I don't know that it's in their best interest. I mean, right now he's a $30.9 million cap hit and only $13 million in dead cap. That's still a pretty big dead cap number, but I feel like if I was the general manager 600 yard receiver yeah I would just cut ties and move my franchise forward you guys see baby cubes talking about Ken bone Walker no but that's I know what that I know what that does to you I mean it's uh we're living in the permanent state of canine hype. Yeah. Well. We only get hype.

That's well, he's a hype machine. It's exciting. The bone zone. And this is, it's that time of the year. I mean, that's all we are going to be doing now is breaking down what coaches are saying about their players. And I am very excited. Well, yeah.

The comments were just alluding to throwing the ball to the running back position. There was that, yes. Which he is one of them. Yes. So. But it wasn't like they were, he was specifically talking about Ken Walker. This wasn't, you know, we're going to get Ken going, we're going to get Charbs going. It was, it was Ken Walker propaganda.

And I accepted. Didn't we, I mean, we just got that from Grubb. Yeah, and I think Grubb told the truth. I mean look how much Ken Walker actually caught the ball this year. On the truth episode we did see that when Kenneth Walker was playing he was very good. He was obviously dealt with injuries. That's a huge issue for Kenneth Walker who's not been able to stay healthy. But he was good for fantasy. A reminder the Ultimate Draft Kit pre-order available right now at

ultimatedraftkit.com you get instant access to the dynasty pass all of our rookie rankings and a whole lot more available for the dynasty players ultimatedraftkit.com if you order by March 1st you can enter you'll be automatically entered to win a listener league spot and get some other sweet pre-order perks again by March 1st, ultimatedraftkit.com. We'll take a break and we'll jump into some shocking stats from 2024. Get groceries delivered across the GTA

from real Canadian super store with PC express. Shop online for super prices and super savings. Try it today and get up to $75 in PC Optimum Points. Visit superstore.ca to get started. All right, let's do it. How'd you do that? I'm not even mad. That's amazing. How'd you do that? It's actually, I'm not even mad. That's amazing. That's a pretty good graphic right there

for those watching. The first time that I saw that, I really stayed quiet. Except for the part where it like went. There was like a real long black screen there. It did go to black, it went to black. What was that? Hard fade there. No fade. A wipe.

Hard cut to black. Well, won't be fixing that in post. Oh, I forget Al. No faith. A wipe. Hard cut to black. Well, won't be fixing that in post. Oh, I forget. Al's always like, please, just don't say anything. Just don't mention it. Don't talk about it. We don't have to show our warts. Yes, we do.

Do we? All right, shocking stats from 2024. We'll start here. We'll call it Miami Vice or Miami's vice, the dolphins. Listen to this 31st in the NFL with 45 total plays of 20 plus yards. That is 31 fewer explosive plays compared to last year. In fact, when you think of that team,

you always thought about explosive plays. Tyree Kale had 19 targets of 20 plus air yards that ended up with five receptions and one touchdown which means that these players had more 20 plus air yard receptions than Tyree. This is unacceptable. A 32 year old Keenan Allen. Wow. A 33 year old Adam Thielen. I still got it. A Jalen Tolbert. Jalen. An Andre Yoshivas. A 2-2 Atwell and a Kayshaun Bouté. Yeah. So. So the question is. Are they a by low offense? Unacceptable. Or the beginning of a boring offense. Right and you know. They saw what the Chiefs did and they're like,

we gotta get in on that. Yeah, it's a back to back Super Bowls by just dinking and dunking. You know, most of the time recency bias wins and you say whatever happened last year is what's going to happen next year, just mentally. I think in order to have that take, there has to be additional reason.

And here it seems like there is. One is the end of Tyreek Hill's playing career. He is clearly closer to that than ever. It looked like he slowed down a bit. Certainly the stats bear that out considering he didn't miss any games and had about half the yards of the season prior, but the other is the change of the offensive mindset with Tua where he gets the ball out way too quickly. I mean, it's just like the ball is snapped and it's out, and I guess it works. It especially works against bad teams, but I don't know how much of that is to protect from the concussion, protect from the poor offensive line play.

Maybe if the offensive line was more trustworthy, they'd give him time in the pocket to air things out. Right now though, it's like Tyree Kill is going to be older and you're still going to forever worry about the concussion issues. So I think it's more of the same this next year. There is a difference between what works and what we want as fantasy players. We clearly have a Kansas City Chiefs football team that has distinguished between the two. We don't get what we want in Kansas City very often, but it has worked for them. 65% of 2-as-attempts were fewer than 10

yards. To me it seems like a bit of an experiment by a franchise saying hey we'd rather have this version of the offense but a competent Tua who's on the field and healthy and not getting hit all the time than a more explosive offense which might fit Mike McDaniel's offense better but would require a different quarterback because they committed money to Tua. And Tua can execute an offense, whether it's, you know, he could execute the deep pass offense too, but it seemed like they made a cognizant decision. And so do we get what we want?

Sounds like you're saying no. I believe we will not get what we desire with our hearts, which is massive explosivo offense. This is also a team that was second place in the division. In Miami's splits, when they play good teams versus bad teams are wild. You know, they're three and 14 versus teams with winning records in their three years

with him as head coach. He's gotta be on the hot seat. He'll definitely be on the hot seat this year. Yeah, he will. I mean, he's been forgiven a lot because of the two injuries, but that being said, the franchise, the general manager, it seems like they don't want to go and sign a really good backup quarterback because they want to not just protect two to physically in the game, but mentally, this is to his franchise.

We're not gonna go out, we don't need a prolific backup, someone that could come in and compete for the job, but that's the wrong. That's beyond stupid. It's so dumb. And I think it will, it has to change after this past year's experience, right? I don't think it will change.

I certainly agree that, I mean, if I was the general manager, that would be one of the number one things I'd be looking at is who's a backup quarterback that can come in here and get us to the playoffs, because that's my job as a general manager is to win football games, should another injury happen, which if another one happens. Yeah, you need a Mariota maybe. Yeah. Somebody like that.

Yeah, I mean, I would hope they might. They're not a lot of them. I mean, it's easy to criticize, but I mean, it's hard to find. Is Flacco. Your Flacco, your Sam. Ah, I don't know. Andy Dalton, you know, those guys are few and far between.

I mean, Flacco could do the check down offense. Tua's under contract until 2029. What? Yeah. It's contract until 2029. What? Yeah. It's that long? Yeah. Who? But I think two is a really great player.

It's just philosophically, we saw a complete change over in that offense, which look, if you believe that about the offense, then maybe you have your question marks around, can Jalen Waddle be a prolific fantasy player or not? This is going to have to do a lot with short area targets. I think the nice thing will be ADP. All right, you know, all we have to quote right now is best ball ADP, but like Tyreek is at wide receiver 12 going around pick number 22.

And then let me scroll. We're going to find Jaylen Waddle. Where are you at, bro? Oh, he's going at 55. Jaylen Waddle. Where you at, bro? Oh, he's going at. 55. Jalen Waddle right now is going as wide receiver 30. So the risk is being baked into the ADP, which for me means that I'll take some shots on that. Where it's not being baked in, though, is we saw HN was at 4.

Oh, yeah. So could Devon HN in this offense be the number one overall running back? I doubt it. I don't think so. Can't give you an Eckler year in this offense? I mean, certainly with the past- 100 receptions. Yeah, with the past catching volume, he can be top five. I think for all parties here, for the avoiding the quick release, protecting Tua, helping the run game, they have got to make this off season

about the offensive line. Their offensive line needs to be, that needs to be the primary focus. If they want to fix their offense, they have to fix their offensive line. Shocking stat number two, we'll call it James was cooking in 2024. James Cook, fantasy points via TD, the percentage of fantasy

points via touchdown, 43%. We had a brief moment, I think, three or four weeks ago, where I had the, I made a statement about James Cook-In, how I'd be out on him for next year. Very strong reactions, as though I thought he wasn't a good player, which was not my point. It was cost in the draft, the fantasy drafts, versus likelihood of receiving a level of production

as great as we just received from him. He had fewer opportunity snaps and yards than last year, which is shocking because you had a season last year where you knew you were moving on from competition and you thought you would be getting a more full-time role. Instead, we had weeks where we were like, oh, that's a lot of Ty Johnson, you know? And then Ray Davis.

Like, Ray Davis seems to be the guy that at a minimum this past year was your salt away the game guy, right? Like you're up by a lot of points. Let's just let Ray Davis have the fourth quarter. Ray Davis had six touchdowns on his own. Three passing, three rushing, and eight into the passing work.

Like, James Cook is a really good passing, pass catching back. Two years ago, he had 63% of the running back target share for this team, and that fell to 48% this year because they had a three-way committee. James Cook had 16 rushing touchdowns. 43% of his fancy points came via touchdown. He was the number one in the NFL

in terms of the highest percentage of attempts were turning into a touchdown. He was the number one in the NFL in terms of the highest percentage of attempts returning into a touchdown. So all of that, look, it speaks to the fact that he's an explosive player, big runs were in the repertoire, 7.7% of his attempts returned into a touchdown. But over the last six years, that high of a percentage was a direct signal in fantasy for regression the following year. For points coming from touchdowns? Yeah, and so you look at that and you say, what odds are you playing here?

Can you score 16 more times? And if you can't, it necessitates your volume increasing or your pass catching increasing. Like something has to get you back to that point if you're not scoring 16 times. And look, it doesn't matter who you are. If 16 times for Derek Henry, you've got a chance of being down at 11 or 12. Yeah, there's no way you would bet for a repeat of that. I mean, if you put the line at 10 and a half touchdowns for James Cook, it would be very difficult to take the over there. So there's gonna be significant regression there.

On the plus side for James Cook though, and what we need to give him credit for for doing this here is he was very explosive and he's a super good running back. He made a difference. He is. I mean, we saw it through the playoffs, right? The commentators, the world at large realized

James Cook is their second best offensive player, period. It's Josh Allen is the leader and their next best weapon is James Cook. So if you're saying that there is a weapon that can score touchdowns, can catch the ball, can rush for over a thousand yards on a great offense, right now he's being drafted as the running back 13 at this point for early best ball you know he's out produced that spot the last two years two years

ago he was the running back 11 even though he only had two touchdowns this last year running back eight with all these touchdowns so will you still be out I did did the did the any of the arguments online sway you at running back 13 next year for you to consider being in on James Cook, or you still feel like now his role has gone down and the touchdowns won't be there? I think it's just a matter of whether you believe he can ascend to being one of those top tier, whatever you want to say, the Saquansans, Gibbs, Bichon, Kyron, from a workload perspective, is that in his future?

No. And I don't currently have a conviction watching him play football that, that's how they're gonna utilize him. I look at it more like Aaron Jones in Green Bay, where look, you could, on the right year, you will end up around the number five, six at the position, but the team has shown they're willing to use a rotation of backs. They did it to great success. They won the division.

I don't know. I mean, that was one of the problems in the playoffs. Aaron Jones is the best comp imaginable because he wasn't a guy that went out there and was getting 350 opportunities a year. This is a guy who was usually 264, 232, and finished as the running back two, five, 12, nine, kind of these same finishes as James Cook. And he even had a season with 16 rushing touchdowns, Aaron Jones did. The following season, he had nine rushing touchdowns.

So he was, obviously it's obviously it's going to be difficult, if not basically impossible for the average back to go back to back 15 plus rushing touchdowns. It's tough to just be out on James Cook though. All right, shocking stat number three, we'll call it the target packing order. I don't know if I like that title. I get it.

You know what I mean? Well, once you explain it, yeah, it's the Packers. Kyle, not my favorite. The Packers were the only team in the NFL without a single player seeing a target share above 19%. Did we bring up the Josh Jacobs quote? Yeah, Josh Jacobs quote, it was a headline maker. If you listen to him say it, it's softer than the way it came across in the headlines because he gives a lot of credit to the receiving corps and the talent that they have. Before he drives the bus over. It wasn't even that to me. It was more like... Like a light pickup truck?

It was like, these are guys. And again, let me read that stat again. The Packers are the only team in the NFL without a single player above 19% of the target share. In fact, Jayden Reed had the fewest receptions, which was 55! of any player to lead a team with 11 plus wins since 2015. But his point was more like, here's a bunch of guys that might be able to ascend

to become a number one, but it would be nice if we had a number one already. That was kind of the point. Like it'd be nice if we had somebody that was a proven commodity, and everyone keeps hinting about Devontae Adams coming back home, coming back home, coming, because he's probably gonna be dropped by the Jets.

I don't think Adams wants to do that. No, he wants to stay in California. Yeah, he's like, I've been in the snow. But they, you know. But hey. That would be a reuniting of Josh Jacobs. Put a roof over Lambeau and Devonte Adams is in. So it was you know I think there were some strong reactions I think Jaden Reid and Dontavian Wicks in particular were vocal about their displeasure with the quote. Oh I did not see that I am totally there for that. Go ahead and take a scan of that, to which I say,

go be a number one, and then he will not have said that. Go demand a target share above 19%. It's really hard to criticize someone for telling the truth. Yeah. I mean, it's not always kind. Sometimes it's insulting. I don't think he intended to be insulting, but if the truth is insulting,

you can't be too mad at someone. You could say like decorum, that you don't say that to the media. But he's still, is he wrong? I guess, let me ask you that. Is he wrong? Do the Packers already have a true Alpha wide receiver one? No, they do not have a proven number one wide receiver. Can one of these guys become a true Alpha wide receiver one? No, they do not have a proven number one wide receiver.

Can one of these guys become a true Alpha wide receiver one? I don't think so. All he did was say what everyone sees. You don't do that to your family out in the public with the quote of. Yeah, I get that. Because to say, quote, they all have the potential to be a number one, but we need a guy that's

proven to be a number one. Yeah. need a guy that's proven to be a number one Yeah, like that's why I don't you don't like that comment. It's a it's a backhand a compliment to me Here's here's the thing you could be it But I guess we need someone who is like my kids could do their homework all the time But I would love to have a kid that did their homework all the time. You know, you're gonna bring that one home I'm just saying I'm testing it out To put my family bad exactly. I'm putting them on black. it out how it feels to put my family on. Exactly. I'm putting them on blast. Yeah, that sounds like you need a new kid. I think that's a little

apples and oranges. I'm just saying I'm trying to think, you know, if it's my team. If there's a free agent kid out there that did their homework, you might sign them? Just saying. It would be great to have one on the team that like just, you know, I could trust did their homework. Proven number one kid. A proven number one kid. That's what I'm saying I'm saying if you're not wide I love my kids and they could all they all have the talent the ability to be my Favorite but they're like number two. I just wish it was like a proven favorite, you know, I Think you figured out a lot. I don't think Jayden Reed can be that guy if you look at the the pathway I think Jayden Reed is it is he's number. And I think the only one on the entire roster that could actually do it would be Dontavian Weggs.

I think he's the only one. If he could catch. We're at the career place for Romeo Dobbs where you're not going up, you're just what you are. I think Romeo Dobbs is a strong supporting wide receiver. And they seem to have a team of supporting wide receivers. Yeah. So I agree with the comment, but I, you know,

the big question is will this change? Are you bullish for the, would you be bullish about the Green Bay offense going into next year with Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs if they don't have another person? Or do you, are you always gonna be playing the roulette at wide receiver with this group? If they don't do anything to help

with the Christian Watson injury, I will be more concerned. But I feel like I've seen enough of Lafleur and his offenses and Jordan Love's ability to say that the Packers will still be a strong offense. With these guys that it feels like we're crapping on, but we're trying to say that they're still competent players. With that group, they were still top ten in most major statistics, eighth in points scored, fifth in yards gained, sixth in passing touchdown, right? Sixth in expected points per pass attempt, this was a strong offense.

And you can put Tucker Kraft in there of maybe not a number one tight end, but it can be very helpful to an offense. So overall, I'm still going to be in on the Packers, but I do hope they add. I do hope they add a number one guy. How excited would you be for Jordan Love if Devonte Adams came to that roster? Or somebody of that pedigree?

Yeah, I'd be much more excited. I'd be very excited. I'd trade for DK Metcalf. Don Tavian Wicks is a really interesting name. Is DK Metcalf a number one wide receiver? Yeah. I really do. I think he is. I think if he had a really good quarterback, yeah. He's at least an alpha wide receiver one from like a capability standpoint. In muscles, yeah. Yeah, just a capability standpoint. I like maybe- So Romeo just got to go, he's got to get the HGH and bulls up? I don't think there's some things you can't do. You just don't grow as tall.

There's a lot of DK McCaff trade rumors again. I am- The team seems ready to move on from him. I'm glad that you brought up Dontavion Wicks as the one guy who maybe could do it because I think this season We all wanted him to do it. He's got the talent. He's always open. He earns the targets He doesn't catch them very well. 39 of 74 targets. I'm not sure what well how many were catchable I would assume most but he is he does have a lot of traits that appear Really good and it's hard

You know when you're a packer to not see and especially with the quotes from LeFleur about how he reminds him of Devonte Adams. Do you remember when Devonte Adams first thousand yard season came? What year it was? Yeah it was the year four I think. I think four. Year five. Five. Yeah because I spent four years insulting He's not the rule no no no he is the exception, but you know his first two years 446 yards 483 yards sometimes we are quick to just Kill a player's career. I think Don Tavion wicks if he could catch the football

He's got everything else. Yeah, exactly. So he's just got to learn one thing Just learn this just learn how to catch just thing. Get this man a jugs machine. He's got, and he's the receiving part. They're way more expensive. We looked that up once. Did you look into a jugs machine? Yeah, I mean... What do you mean we?

What you guys did together? I think we looked it up once. We were talking about this at some point and found out there, it's a machine that does very little. It seems... There's two little tires. It seems not complicated to build, and they're like, yeah, it'll be a couple thousand dollars. There's two little tires, you know what I

mean? And then it's like... Oh Jordan, yeah, because Jordan Mason bought one so we went into that discussion. You know, poles that go to the ground, the material cost is like, I don't know, was it 50 bucks? You're gonna charge me thousands for this? Well you gotta, you know, gotta sync the tires up real science-like. Did someone's got a good patent on that and they're holding out? Pat Riley does. It's Pat Riley's patent.

All right, we'll take a break. We got some more stats for you. ["The Three Peaks"] You know, before we went to break, I brought up Pat Riley's name because he has the- He's always up to no good. He's got the three-peat trademark. But then I realized he had come to an agreement

with the NFL and others to be able to use it, but I also thought when he signed that, it's all contingent upon the Chiefs winning. You're not printing up stuff. Pat Riley's pretty upset. So he lost. Did he have all the money he was about to make? That was a big bet on Kansas City.

Hope he didn't start spending that money. All right, number four on our shocking stats today. I think Pat Riley's okay. He's probably okay. Welcome to the Lazer Show, Baker Mayfield's eight finishes. Who? Baker Mayfield's eight finishes.

Laser. Inside the top five were the most among all quarterbacks more than Lamar more than burrow more than Josh Allen this is my favorite part in fact that is tied for the most my homes has ever had in a season eight finishes inside the top five at the position on a season in which 4541 was the accomplishment. And it's wild because I've been thinking about Godwin, right? Like Godwin has the injury, he's a free agent. To me, like the injury might be the pathway to coming back.

I think he's back. To Baker Town. Then you'd have quite the group for Baker for another year, Godwin coming back at some point, and then Evans and McMillan and Otten and company. So it's interesting to say, is Baker going to have more than one elite year when you're a pocket passer? Sure, there's a lot of variability, but he ran for 378 yards this past year. He scored three times on the ground. He's 29 years old.

How many more top five finishes do you think he has as a starting quarterback rest of his career? Like a rest of season top five? No, really? No, the rest of his career, how many times does he finish on the week in the top five? Not that, I didn't mean that either. All right, hold on, hold on. I meant what I said, which is how many. All right, well, okay, hold on, hold on.

I meant what I said, which is how many- Okay, say it again. Do the play call. How many more top five fantasy seasons does he have as a starting quarterback? Got it, so end of season he finished. That's what I was saying, so end of season. Yeah.

Yes. Zero. So the- You think never again. I think never. So the thing I agreed with you. All right, you're never, you're never. Back in think never again? I think never again. So the thing I agreed with you. All right, you're never, you're never. Back in the top five?

Yeah, I don't think he's gonna be top five. You're forgetting about the dog. He's got that dog in him. The dog is there. The dog is barking, is angry. Not all pocket passers have the dog. That's true, but. That's an angry dog.

This is his seventh season. This was his first season in the top five as a fantasy finish ever, and he did that on the back of... This is the one stat that is very predictably unsustainable for everyone, even the superstars. We talk about this when Patrick Mahomes does it it we talked about this back in the day when Aaron Rodgers when your touchdown passing rate the percentage of your passes that turn into touchdowns is Outlandishly high for your career average That doesn't stick that doesn't just that's not a stat. That's like well because he did it last year

He has leveled up seven point two percent seven point two and the years prior four point nine three four point one five point three four Point one five point six like we know who Baker is and it's not a bad quarterback. He's a good quarterback Even if he's leveled up, he's not gonna throw seven point two percent touchdown percentage next year House on it. I agree with that but his His career is so bizarre. Yeah, I don't like the seven year argument. He's got two years that we can pay attention to. His first three years in Cleveland,

he was at 5.6, 4.1, and 5.3. So I'm going to put him closer into the five. Sure. Which that's above league average. I don't think he's going to get to 7.2, but we've now seen him as a starter in Tampa Bay for two years. He was over 4,000 yards in both of them.

The first year was just 28 touchdowns, then it jumped up to 41. I think we're somewhere. I think 28 would be. If I set the line at 34 touchdowns next year. 34 touchdowns do you take? I would take the under. That's a really good.

I think I'd take the over. I think it's a really good line. I think he'll throw a 35. But it's going to, like, if he only threw 28 touchdowns and played a full season and he's at 4,200 yards or whatever, that would surprise me. That was good enough for a quarterback 10 for what it's worth in 2023.

Nice thing about Baker, 17 games played, two consecutive years. They're always fighting for their playoff spot at the end of the season. Right. And he plays through injury. Yeah, he just, because of the way- I'll say it one more time, though.

The way that his career has gone. One more time. Maybe not next year. I like Baker. I like him. I think I have him much higher in dynasty startup rankings than most people do. So you're saying, because I love Baker,

I love watching him, I love rooting for him, and I think he's a very good quarterback, but you're saying you love him specifically for fantasy. Like you are higher than consensus on what you believe he'll score for you. Yeah, I mean, I like this situation. Got a first-bound Hall of Fame wide receiver, Jay. I have Kyler Murray, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield on my dynasty team and I genuinely

I look at Baker who is a throw-in backup in a trade as my better quarterback. I man Baker Kyler, so that's a crazy conversation. You pulled up a stat yesterday Jay Or Mike did with the all-time. I think it was you Mike the all-time completion percentage Leader oh, yeah, it was burrow. Yeah, it was a good berry tweet. Yeah, it was something with the minimum Games played he's actually currently if Joe burrow Joe burrow of his career was to be over right now would be the all-time Completely a leader in completion percentage and kind of reason number two and then Kyler was at three Yeah, so Mike final answer then.

How many more top five seasons the rest of his career? I went with one. I think it is at least one. I will go, man, top five is so tough. That's a tough one. I'll probably say one, but. And you're at zero, Jay? But very useful for fantasy.

Yeah, and that is not, I don't want it to come across as me saying that he's not good for fantasy but top five is It comes really though. You hate Baker and you know How many times all year and they know how much I love Baker may how many top lives for laser for Justin Herbert How many top fives for Justin Herbert left in his career? Yeah, it's a good question That's a that's a good question. That's a great counter argument, because I certainly would. I would not put it at zero at all.

I think he has three more top fives. Wow. Three more? Yeah. Huh. So Herbert. Better get to it. Herbert's about to be 27.

And currently has one top five finish. I would I would probably say one more for Herbert But did I bring him up to just yeah, he's a pocket passer Herbert runs a little bit like Baker. How many more for burrow? Oh Quite a few well you have to assume he misses every other season so That's gonna that's gonna lower that number and then he gets the comeback player of the year every other season every other season Do I burrow out here? non-stop publicly putting the pressure on his team is So delicious like he just did it again

He's talking about the Eagles because they were like talking you know how salary cap works And he was talking about the Eagles, because they were talking how salary cap works, and he was explaining, well, I can, if we convert some of my contract and move things around, he's like, they should just do what the Eagles do. They're paying everybody, and it seems to work. Yeah, that's a tough sell on certain ownership groups. You saw, I mean, they just literally had another player request a trade today, so.

Yeah, but they have so much cap. Yeah, they don't like to spend it. Certain ownership groups are better than others. Yeah. They don't hear cap, they hear profit. Figure it out, man. Get T back there. That'll be our last one for today, then.

Bungling Bengals. The Bengals were leading or tied on 69% of their offensive plays in 2024. That is absurd. That's pretty nice. Only the Vikings had a higher rate and they were the only team in the NFL at 60 plus percent that did not make the playoffs.

So they were leading and playing well and just one in seven in one score games. Woof. It's the anti-chiefs there. That was before three and oh in their final three games. But look, their defense, atrocious across the board in every category. They lost their defensive coordinator

or let him go this offseason. You know how Mike Tomlin is too good of a coach to allow the Pittsburgh Steelers the opportunity to draft a top five future quarterback? Yeah, to miss the playoffs. So he kind of nerfs them in the playoffs because they don't have a Super Bowl caliber team, but he always takes the caliber he has and gets them to the playoffs.

So people are mad that he's not winning in the playoffs. He's a great coach. He's just kind of hurting them because he's not bad enough. This is the exact opposite situation with the Bengals. The exact opposite. Joe Burrow is too good to allow Zach Taylor to get fired. But what needs to happen is, you know what I mean? Wait, is this the new guy?

No, Zach Taylor is not a putrid, stinky coach like the new guy like the Dennis Allen. I don't hate Zach Taylor. I don't think Zach Taylor is a good enough coach to, like, it's doing a disservice to Joe Burrow. I want to see him have, you know, someone that comes in who knows how to help a franchise win. I couldn't be on the more opposite side of you than-

So you love Zach Taylor. The problem was the defense. Zach Taylor was a promoted quarterbacks coach He's got the best quarterback in football on an amazing offense the defense was bottom five so you can blame Zach Taylor for not firing a heralded head coaching candidate and are Why am I forgetting his name? Oriamo are

Goodness gracious where we don't lose the fire. It It's morning the fire defensive coordinator Kyle help me out here Lou and a rimmo and a room. Oh not or not origami Samsonite Lou and a room. Oh was the fault so to me it's like you got the best freaking offensive football You're doing all the right stuff I know what you're saying there and obviously the defense was the issue for this team. And they went to the Super Bowl with Zach Taylor. But there are still, just on a game by game basis, play calling and decision making and cowardice that I think is... You've never forgiven them for P. Ryan.

Oh, the Super Bowl? That's one of a hundred, man. I didn't even remember that one. Yes, you did. You bring it up all the time because you have particular plays you don't like. And maybe, right, maybe this is one of those teams that needs to make the change to take further advantage of Joe Burrow. I mean, the Bulls did it with Jordan, right?

They moved on from winning seasons. Yeah, from a good coach to a great coach. To a great coach, the Warriors did it, right? They won a lot of games with Mark Jackson, went on to Steve Kerr. Like Harbaugh coming into the Chargers feels like what I want to have happen for the Bengals. But to be fair, I don't know that there's a Harbaugh

sitting out there. Yeah, I was gonna say, is there a great coach that doesn't have a job? I mean, Bill Belichick was available. I do not want Bill Belichick coaching my team. I think everyone thinks that, including NFL teams. Yes, they have proven that. It's like you're the best, but no thank you.

He's just, he's so old. Yeah, he is quite old. But Pete Carroll got a job. Didn't stop Pete Carroll, yeah. And I expressed. Would you have been more excited for the Raiders with Carroll or Belichick? Oh, that's a good question

That's funny cuz I might my answer is I think it's Carroll Yeah mine too. Carroll because Pete Carroll is more willing to do something like bring Chip Kelly in where Belichick will come in and I mean like Greatest coach of all time Bill Belichick with no Tom Brady. The end there. One of them went and won a Super Bowl. The other one faded into the mist. I wish, why can't you just have like co-head coaches?

Like two. Brilliant offensive mind, brilliant defensive mind. That's kind of what the coordinators are. No, but that's all there is. There's just two. So there's no coordinators, It's just two head coaches. No, two head coaches. It's like Taylor and Spags from the Chiefs. Co-head coaches. I don't know. That'd be awkward locker room speeches. What is the phrase where it's like when you have too many ... When you have two quarterbacks, you have none. Exactly. I think that would be the issue.

You have two head coaches, you have none. Exactly. I think that would be the issue. You have two head coaches, you have none. But there are a lot of situations where you're like, you know, you want Zach Taylor's influence on the offense maybe. I don't know. Burrow lost season. It was a lost season for the Cincinnati Bengals. It was not lost for fantasy teams.

No, it wasn't. We were having a great time with Joey B. Do we need their defense to be bad? It helps. We want their defense to be bad, that is for darn sure. Leading or tied on 69% of all of their plays didn't make the playoffs.

That is a shocking stat. The Bengals made the playoffs. The Bengals were, or I'm sorry, the Broncos. The Broncos made the playoffs. And they were leading 44% of the time. That is, I mean, that's wild. That's almost like they had a better head coach than Sean Payton.

Yeah, I mean, that's what we do. I mean, you got, what, 31 teams that need a new head coach after their failure of a season. One doesn't. And he seemed like he was going to get fired in the first quarter of the year. So, all right, we'll wrap it up. One more reminder, head to ultimate draft, get dot com order by March 1st, get into to win a listener league spot,

come and play with us in 2025. And if you want an extra episode of the show, you can go to join the foot.com become a supporter you get that extra episode every Thursday the footcast for answering your questions getting you ready for the off season. And if you want both of those things that is the ultimate foot clan membership and you'll get the UDK and everything we have all season long and never have to think about it again. So you can do that at jointhefoot.com as well. That'll do it for today's episode but don't worry we'll be back. Thanks for joining us. Thank you everybody. Goodbye.

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