Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Surprise Show! Explain Yourself + UDK Day! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/1

Episode Date: June 1, 2024

A surprise episode on UDK Day! On today’s fantasy football podcast, Andy, Mike, and Jason are forced to defend their rankings! Get a full range of outcomes for DK Metcalf, Derrick Henry, and Malik Nabers! Plus, reactions to the Jaylen Waddle contract extension. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for June 1st, 2024. 2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,

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Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages. Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. The time is coming swiftly. The middle rounds are now close for the unskilled. Yet here you are, unprepared, you fools.

This season you will find all kinds of foes, eager to watch your draft crumble with wasted picks. There can only be one ultimate draft kit. Only one that can bend them to its will. And it does not share power. You must wield the UDK and send your opponents back to the shadows. You shall not pass

on this chance to send your league mates into the deep. Fly, you fools, to OuterDraftKit.com. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. We got a surprise for you. Surprise, surprise. It's me. It's more than just us today.

A bonus episode of the show. That's right. What do you mean it's more than just us? It's more than just the three of us. It's a special day. Well, the UDK is not a surprise. Nor a person. Well, it's UDK day, so we're doing a special bonus show. Okay.

Yeah, we are. Yeah, we're here. I just don't understand how there's more than the three of us on camera right now. It's not just us. It's me, Mike, Andy, and the UDK. Okay. Yeah, no, that was clear. Very obvious.

Very clear. Welcome in, Saturday edition of the Fantasy Footballers. It is June 1st, which means the Ultimate Draft Kit is live. It's available. You can go and spend the entirety of your day and tomorrow and the day after perusing the fine contents. I mean, pop open a bottle of UDK and take a sip. I was going to say, you're probably going to need some acetaminophen

or something by the end of this. Because of just overload? Yeah. You know, like after a good workout, you're sore. Not a doctor, but it is my- I can prescribe ibuprofen, guys. I feel pretty okay with that. To be fair, you prescribed Tylenol there.

Yeah, you did. Oh, did I? You want to say something? So very obviously not a doctor. I can do both. And look, it's a Saturday edition. We've got the deucers in here. In deucers alley.

What? He tried to power through. It did not work. I threw the camera over to the Ducers because, I mean, they're celebrating the UDK today. And obviously, the Falcon has got his Saturday shirt on. Oh, man. Because he is.

Oh, yeah. Yeah, let it be visible. Are you in Hawaii? That's a Jimmy Buffett UDK type of day. He's also got sandals on, guys. Does he? Yeah. The outfit is complete.

Think I didn't see those sandals? And swim trunks. Yes. Head over to ultimatedraftkit.com. Very excited. The last word count I had as of right now is 67,000 words and counting. There will be more. There will be more.

This thing is robust, to say the least. We just went through and kind of fine-tuned our tiers yesterday for our tier-based rankings. We've got the stat projections. So you can go see. The neatest way to use it is to go import or plug in your league settings, take a look at what the rankings look like, considering your league setting.

Maybe it's a PPR. Maybe it's a PPR. Maybe it's a standard league. We play in half point per reception. But plug that in. See the updated stat projections and rankings. 100-plus player profile videos. That's so important because you say all those words that's in there, and I'm like, well, if you're like me and you don't like reading,

we got video. It's all right. Yeah, that was the first response from Al Borland. He's like, that is too many words. Like, you don't have to read them all. They're available to you. It's got something for everybody. Yeah.

Some people can read well. Today's going to be an explain yourself episode, so we're going to dig into one player ranking for each of us that is a little bit different and kind of explain why we have them ranked outside of the consensus. Because we each put together our rankings for the draft kit, for the website. You can see the free rankings on the fantasyfootballers.com. And you'll notice that there are players that we have agreement on. And then there are players that we have ranked pretty dramatically different

and we talk about them all off season we're always tweaking the rankings but we'll we'll give each other a chance to explain yourself today obviously i will explain very well i think i'll explain pretty well as well, Andy. I think I will sway you. Jason's holding up his golden ticket. Today. See, the thing about giving you one golden ticket for one argument is that when it's gone, it's gone. Oh, I know.

I will never use it. He's using the – It expires this season, but, you know, I'm playing a long game here. It's just tough because you don't know when you'll really need it. Yeah. Like, you'll think you need it. I won't need it today because when I explain myself, you're going to be like, oh, yeah, I was wrong. You were right.

I am ugly. You were handsome. We'll change our rankings right on the spot. Yeah, for sure. So, welcome in. Surprise episode of the show. Happy to be with you. Give you a little extra content for the weekend.

Here's a quick question. Came in from YouTube. Which New England wide receiver do you think will finish higher than their current average draft position? New England's in the category of teams that are not fun to think about this offseason. That's a fair point. But that also can afford an opportunity. I think the Giants are a little bit in that category. I think

there's a handful of teams where the wide receiver rooms or all of the pass catchers combined with the quarterback situation. It's garbage. Yeah, it just doesn't look good. I mean, and every year we are surprised

at times so um here are the adps right now for the receiver the receiver room in new england wide receiver 68 off the board right now which is that's the top that's the top of the new england list right jaylen polk is sitting there 37th pick in the draft which by the way that is the latest over the last 6 years for a wide receiver 1 as in the first receiver drafted from this team

is going at pick 68 that's insane our best guess of this will be their number 1 wide receiver is going at 68. Not far behind to Mario Douglas. Wide receiver 77 was a rookie last year. Definitely flashed at times.

I think we all kind of liked what we saw on the field when he had opportunities. Yeah, I would say he popped, but yeah. Popped? Oh, man. Come on, man. Isn't that his name? Yeah, that's his nickname Popped? Oh, man. Come on, man. Isn't that his name? Yeah, that's his nickname, brother. Oh, man.

Mario Pop Douglas. It's Saturday. He doesn't flash. He loves that soda pop. Yeah. Sorry, I guess. He's a sugar fiend. Javon Baker at wide receiver 82.

Kendrick Bourne at wide receiver 99. This is why, when I saw this quick question, I almost just canned it. I almost just said, yeah, this is too boring of a discussion. But at the same time, Mike, what did you say? It's garbage, but sometimes there's delicious garbage. And look, oh, nasty boys are all over the place. You got to find them. My thought is DeMario Douglas will 100% outperform wide receiver 77.

Now, that's a caveat because there's a caveat there. He could end up the wide receiver of 57 and not matter for fantasy. But I think Demario Douglas is the most guaranteed to see consistent snaps. He's versatile, so they can use him in screen game. They can use him down the field. He averaged almost eight targets last year. Seven targets and 56 receiving yards a game. They can use him down the field. He averaged almost eight targets last year. You know, seven targets and 56 receiving yards a game.

That's not too shabby. That's not the end of the world. No. And the two veterans, Demario Douglas, I feel very confident he outperforms his ADP. And Kendrick Bourne at wide receiver 99, who just signed a new three-year deal. Yeah, it's only five and a half

guaranteed but it has some inflated stuff kendrick born will outproduce wide receiver 99 like that's i will lock that in but it's the same argument of will that actually turn into something i don't know we just when is when is a player a veteran? Because Mario Douglas is not a first-year player. I feel like he's a second-year player. Really? Yeah. That's all it takes? You're not like a second-year player?

Based on the Dynasty show, you're really not in a position to talk about who's a year two player, year three player. My point is I just don't feel like all year two players are considered a veteran. No, they're not. They're not veterans, but relative to the other guys we're talking about, they they are i think that's what mike meant like baker and polk are rookies so by extension to mario douglas is a is the most experienced on the team outside of an injured born so would you define it so you're a rookie you're a second year player you're a vet yeah that's that's how i see it i think i think you're not really a true vet until you're in the third year.

Because your second year, you're learning how to not be a rookie. You're learning how to lead. You're learning how to like, oh, wow, I'm not at rookie mini camp. You don't have to learn how to not be a rookie. You just aren't. You know what I mean? Look, this was an open question for conversation. We just had a discussion on the Thursday episode of the show. If you're not

the number one overall pick and you're a rookie, your average line for your number one receiver was not fantasy like super fantasy relevant. It was like kind of wide receiver three or worse range.

Because of that, you could have Jacoby Brissett. That is still way up in the air. I think there's a pretty decent chance Brissett's their guy for the beginning of the year. But the real question to me is, will they outperform it by a little bit? It's like...

Who are you taking the shot on? Yeah, who's got the best chance three weeks into the year because you took them with your last pick or you picked them up off the waiver wire right after the draft to still be on your roster? Who's the most likely to still be on your roster three weeks into the year? That would be Jalen Polk probably just because he's a rookie. You think he should grow into that role as the season goes on. He had good film.

I really liked him. I saw he's more of a slot slot player but he can go down the field he's got great hands I saw when I watched him like some Anquan Bolden to him I don't think that this quarterback situation is going to allow any wide receiver here to really be uh very very relevant what if it's Jacoby for eight games? Then I would lean towards Demario Douglas. Yeah, saying Polk in the beginning, I would say you said to grow into it. Like, he'll be off your team then. Well, I'm saying you don't usually.

If you're drafting rookies, you're not going to cut them when they don't pop right off the bat. You're going to give them time. No, I'm not giving him time with my last pick in the draft. He's on the way out. That is part of the issue for rookies. Rookie wide receivers, they historically do much, much better over the second half of the season once they have acclimated,

once they've learned how to be a rookie. Then they start turning it on at the end of the year. So for the question of the first three weeks, who's still on your roster, it's Douglas because he will put up some points and he'll look like a player that, hey, maybe in a pinch for my second flex or when the bye weeks hit me, I could put Douglas in. But second half for me, it's the bets on Polk. And let's, I mean, Juju Smith-Schuster and KJ Osborne and Demario Douglas

could be the top three wide receivers to start the year on the field. Yeah, very possible. So, you know, people are really excited about Javon Baker. I've seen the Javon Baker quad pictures showing up all over the internet because this is his quad season. Oh, yeah. I didn't know that Javon was on the quad squad. He's on the quad squad.

I'm going to look that up. Take a little quad look a little quad. Look, glance. Um, Javon Baker quads. Yeah. I mean, he's got some,

he's got big quads. He does. Impressive quads. That dude squats. So, uh, was that discussion? I'm going to pull out Borland over there.

Was that discussion worth anything? Oh my God. That's a tough question. All right. I don't like talking about Patriots wide receivers at all. Okay. Yeah. Well, we won't have to anymore.

News and notes from around the league. I knew we should have cut that out. Yeah. I knew that was a waste. That's all right because we paid the price. Yeah. And now we got it out of the way. We won't have to talk about them as we get closer to the season.

The next person asks, you just point him to this Saturday bonus episode. That's what the people want. They want the bonus Saturday New England wide receiver deep dive. You're welcome. How about this? Jalen Waddell just signed a three-year

$84 million extension with $76 million guaranteed. Get paid. I believe that makes him a top five wide receiver in terms of the contract. Correct. Yeah, no, I mean, this is great. It doesn't make you feel better. As a Dynasty Waddell manager who has really made the wrong choice in his trade. Remove CeeDee Lamb from the conversation.

Jalen Waddell, how do you feel about him moving forward for Dynasty? Jalen Waddell's a really good Dynasty player. I've got him as a top 15 wide receiver. He's one of the top 15 on your roster? Well, certainly on my roster. Yeah, I mean, this is a player who has already in his career, you know, been the wide receiver seven. We know he has that in him.

He was hobbled a lot last season. Tyree Kill probably has two seasons left. Now they're signing him long-term. So Waddle is great. I think people are overblowing his down season this past year. It was disappointing, but that's not the new normal. I see him as a very, very solid wide receiver, too. With wide receiver one upside, should injuries happen, or especially if you're talking dynasty long-term,

he should develop into a wide receiver one for fantasy. The numbers of, you know, as a rookie, wide receiver 16 as a rookie that's sensational averaged 12.1 points per game in a half point scoring format was on the field for 78 percent of snaps in games he was playing this past year 11.6 points per game i mean that's not that far off from that wide receiver 16 pace he was on and he was only on the field for about half of the snaps. Yeah, I think the rookie year I throw out for Waddell from utilization standpoint because they brought in a different head coach

and they threw the ball downfield. Okay, so you like the sophomore where he was 13 points a game. Yeah, I do. I do like that. I just think that Jalen Waddell in this offense is a 75-catch player. I don't think he's a 100-plus-c catch player because that's just not how it's designed. But last year was definitely not a right representation

of his value in fantasy. I agree. He missed games, so his end of season ranking was below average. He hobbled out of games oftentimes and he didn't have the touchdowns that he had the year before. And that made a tremendous difference. And he's probably – he should be a 6-8 touchdown type of player

in this offense, no question, if not more. So, yeah, I don't – you know, a lot had to go right to be wide receiver 7 in terms of the big plays, putting up almost 1,400 yards. But a lot had to go wrong for him to be the wide receiver 34. I think he's being undervalued. Yeah, but Andy, he's a 75-catch guy. He had 72 last year in 14 games playing 56% of the snaps. That's a good point.

To me, I think he's an 80-plus reception guy. How about 85? Sure. 88? Let's take it easy. Let's take it easy. 18 yards per catch is outrageous. Like, that's – you can't get there.

But 14 last year. You give me 14 a catch in the 80s is – give that – I'll take that all day. With his speed and this system, you can see 15 being very reasonable, very normal, very repeatable. So, if you're at 15 yards a catch and you're at 80, 85 receptions, that's going to be a wonderful fantasy season because you know if you're at that yards per catch, some of those went to the house.

Yeah. Yeah, he's more volatile than other receivers, but he also can win you a week, and so he signs a big deal. And that's kind of exciting for those dynasty managers like Jason. You guys make me hate Jalen Watt. That just want you to know trade him to me sure i will do the trade yeah you i will make an offer right now oh mike evans uh no thank you all right broncos fifth round running back audrick estimate is part of the competition for that running back room. Yep.

He underwent a small knee scope and should be available for the start of training camp. Well, they estimate he'll be back by training camp. All right. Come on, no! No, that was so good! You had to call Swish. You didn't call Swish quick enough.

I didn't have to call Swish. Everyone saw that go in. I didn't even touch the net. That busted that is it for news we'll take a break and come back with some of our more interesting rankings from the udk okay we're back um before we get into this segment, I realized that I have messed up. Uh-oh. And Al knows I've messed up. Al's just sitting over there, and he put some work into it.

I mean, this is UDK Celebration Day. Yeah, special bonus episode. I mean, I'm surprised he hasn't walked out of the studio. Al, are you doing okay? I'm good, man. All right. We,

he, we prepared something special. It's going to be even better for the YouTubers out there, but, um, in the world of, I haven't seen this yet. What do we got?

We just have like a, you know, Jason, he's a man of many talents. Oh no. And, um, you know,

he celebrates the UDK in his own way and we've had different songs and different special bits to celebrate the udk so we got another little big shimmy yeah udk Little Big Jimmy. Yeah. UDK. Oh. Oh. UDK. UDK. UDK.

UDK. UDK. UDK. UDK. UDK. Oh. UDK. UDK.

UDK. UDK. UDK. I don't know when you had the time to make that performance, Jason. You can draw a crowd, man. There's a lot of people there. You're darn right. I got the moves. I mean, Al's putting that together all day yesterday.

And again. Let's not exaggerate. He was putting that together for some of the day. But I just, he couldn't get it out of his head. He'd just be walking around the office and all of a sudden you'd hear. UDK. UDK. And you'd do the voice and everything.

Everybody that just heard that will be doing the same thing. I hope so. Sorry for making you wait. Do that every time you open the app. When you go sit down on the toilet and you're like, oh, what do I want to look at? Little Big Shimmy. Oh, UDK. The lyrics are super easy to memorize.

Yeah, they're not complicated. Let's jump in. I'm quite well, thank you. No no clearly you are not no rational person would do as you have done explain yourself well well well we've got some rankings, disparities, differences of opinion. And we begin with, I think, I think this one stood out more than most when we looked at the rankings. When we got done with our individual stat projections. And there's, it's a player that's, he's been around the block. You know what I mean?

Like he's on his way around the block again. We've seen, I think. Make him sound like he's 30. Yeah, I mean, he's not 30. But we've seen a lot of him. And I thought we knew what he was. And then we get to the rankings. And Mike slides a minute at wide receiver 24.

Right with ADP. Yeah, I mean, and you've got the last three years for this player, wide receiver 16, 18, and 12. I've got him at 19. I don't feel like that's the end of the world. But DK Metcalf, Jason has slotted in as his wide receiver 10, which if that's a prophetic reality, that'll be his highest finish since back in 2020. Right, also known as not his highest finish.

Yes. Because he's finished higher if you go back to 2019. I mean, you're trying to set me up for failure, brother. 2019, he was wide receiver 32, so you're very, that's not accurate. But in 2020, he was the wide receiver seven. Hold on. Hold on. I'm confused.

All I said was the highest finish since then. He's finished than 10 already i know the time warps a thing but how soon do you think like how recent was 2020 i believe it was four years okay just making sure jason with a wide receiver ranking of 10 for dk mccaff explain yourself dk mcalf has name fatigue right now you guys are living in the name fatigue you you you started by saying he's been around the block we know what he is well neither one of you have him ranked even to where he's finished the last four seasons he's finished above both your rankings the last four seasons in a row he's finished above ADP the last four seasons in a row. He's finished above ADP the last four seasons in a row. And I think there are major upgrades for him coming this season. So let me explain myself. First of all, he's the clear alpha among these three wide receivers. Yes, I know you've got Tyler Lockett and you've got

the, you know, the five, the fifth year player, uh, Jackson Smith and Jigba on the, on the roster, but he's the alpha here. He's best against zone among these three wide receivers, and he's the best among man in the entire NFL. He's the best among all men. Well, he is. He's a man among men. Man coverage. Yes, man coverage. He is best in yards per outrun among the entire NFL. He's best against zone among this receiver core. He does what you want for fantasy. Okay. Not all targets are the same. We talked about that with running backs. Like a target is worth so much more than a carry. Well, not all targets are the same for wide receivers. For a target, a target's worth a target, right? A red zone target's worth 1.7 targets.

Inside the 10, it's worth 2.1 targets and in zone target. When you're targeted on that paint, that's where 2.6 targets, he leads the NFL and in zone targets since being drafted in 2019. And sometimes they just don't get caught. And sometimes they do. You've seen him have double digit touchdown, uh, you know,. And you've seen him last year where he was under his expectation for touchdowns. He should have had more touchdowns. I'm not saying like, oh, I think he should. I'm saying based upon the targets he had, the end zone targets, he literally should have had more.

And he already had a good season. He has weeks that he can do things like where he was the number one wide receiver with 124 yards and three touchdowns. Yeah, he did that against me, and he did it against Dallas, and it made no sense, and I was really sad. But he's also consistent. He's a B in our consistency range. He is a really, really good wide receiver.

Nobody's saying DK Metcalf isn't a good wide receiver, right? You guys have him ranked as wide receiver two. On a fantasy points per target basis, he is up there with the best, with Cooper Cup, with CeeDee Lamb, with Devontae Adams. The selling points for Metcalf are very simple. He is still in his prime. He's 26 years old. He's entering year six.

Historically, year five and six, compared to the others, have the highest ceiling for fantasy wide receivers. The offense just hit the wrong side of variance last year. They ranked fourth in pace, seventh in pass rate, but dead last in time of possession. Their defense is not good, which is a great problem to have. The thing that I love looking at him when I started him out for the UDK, when I was doing the research, it's Ryan Grubb. I do not like Shane Waldron. I don't think Shane Waldron is a great offensive coordinator.

It's some of what scares me about the Bears hiring him over, even though they've got so many great weapons there. Ryan Grubb is coming over from the University of Washington, and their record-setting offense, they rank number one in the nation in passing with 369.8 yards per game. But if you look at their system. Shout out Michael Penix Jr. Yeah, absolutely.

If you look at their system and their players and their personnel, it lines up identically with Seattle. And this isn't just me talking. This is actually Grubb saying that when he came over, he said, quote, there's no question when I was looking at who is here and the tools that are here in Seattle, I thought there was a lot of familiarity in what would be applicable in the system. And then he goes on to say, you got the big bodied X in DK and Rome. So he's putting DK Metcalf in the Roma Dunzey role where he was the clear alpha. And he talks up JSN as perfect for that Jalen Polk role.

Like, these roles are established. He had three great wide receivers last year. He's got three great wide receivers this year, but there is a one. There is an alpha. There is an X. This is how Grubb has talked about him. So you've got a wide receiver in his prime who's already been a top 10 wide receiver in the past, has been higher than his ADP the last four years running,

now has a new system in place that I think is going to highlight him even better. And if you compare the passing game emphasis on deep posts and vertical routes between what Adunze did and what DK Metcalf does well, they're almost identical. Like they, it's exactly perfect for this system. So when I was statting him out for the UDK, I'm like, okay, he's going to be the primary target in this offense. He's going to get the most valuable type of targets in this offense. I don't see how it goes wrong, especially like, let's say he doesn't finish as the wide receiver 10, where I have him ranked. He's being drafted as the wide receiver 24 outside of being injured there's no way he drops that far so you're drafting a player at his floor and I do think he has the ceiling of of being the wide receiver 5 I don't think wide receiver 10 is absolutely his ceiling he's a guy

that can go out there and catch 13 touchdowns and if that happens with everything else that he does I think you guys are the ones really who need to explain themselves. Well, look, you have him higher than ADP. We have him slightly lower than ADP. To your credit, the second half of last year, even though it was a struggle for Geno Smith, his pace from Week 10 on was 71 for 12, 46, and 11. So he's on the touchdown pace.

The kind of counterpoints, briefly, that would factor into the decision would be things don't always go well coming from the collegiate game to the NFL and trying to implement a system. Yeah, does he? Cliff Kingsbury, Matt Rule, and Urban Meyer. But he didn't have to move. Joe Brady.

No, he did not have to move. You see, because he has the same house. Yep. Just different team. Does DK get to play against college DBs? It's going to make him look like it, yeah. And then the other part would just be like Geno Smith is a question mark. Like, can he bounce back to form?

That's not like – you know, you're banking on Geno Smith. It's part of the equation. Geno Smith had a very down year last year. He did. DK Metcalf, everyone thinks, has a very down year last year. He was the wide receiver 16, and he missed a game. So it's like, okay, so that's the down year? Yeah, I mean, if you started the year with DK Metcalf,

it was, yeah, it was a down year. Well, I mean, he was really good the first three weeks, and then he got injured a couple weeks after the bye and then took a couple weeks to get back i mean you had a stretch that was bad but it started good and then it finished awesome once he was back from injury and again on the season he was a consistency of a b and the wide receiver 16 so it wasn't like it all came in one it was he was really good it we'll see how defenses play against that scheme because the you can't argue with the numbers of how good DK is against man coverage,

but teams aren't doing that as much, and he was not nearly as good against zone. So if they're getting more zone against him, then we'll see. The argument of you're drafting him at his floor is compelling. I will agree he is not as good at zone as he is at man, but I want to make sure that that is not mistaken to be he's not good against zone. He's great against zone, better than the other two wide receivers on his team, but not as good as he is against man.

All right, speaking of man, we need to talk about a man who, in most years, might have been the number one wide receiver drafted because he's so talented, goes to a place with no target competition. We're talking about the wide receiver 19 above DK Metcalf in average draft position, who I've got at 22 and he's got at 18. The man, the myth, the legend, Malik Neighbors.

Mike, you've got him at wide receiver 37. It's time for you to explain yourself. I'm not even angry about this ranking. I'm just disappointed. Right. Yeah, you're the father. I'm just disappointed. And that hurts Mike the most.

Because I thought that you could see things clearer. And you've rubbed Vaseline all up on those eyes. I have seen clearly that Malik Nabors is an incredible prospect. I think the introduction helps highlight the problem that's going on with Malik Nabors. Why'd you call him a legend? The man, the myth, the legend. Why'd you call him the man the myth why'd you call him a legend who has taken zero snaps in the NFL is being drafted as the man the myth the legend you said it wide receiver 19 on sleeper right now wide receiver 20 over on underdog he is being drafted as the second highest

rookie wide receiver in ADP ever and he's number two because right now Marvin Harrison is going also extremely high. So I'll just start it off here. Where he is in my rankings, 37, sounds absolutely abysmal. Agreed. It is. But my point being, guys right around there, the point differential is it's very small.

If I just give him another touchdown, he jumps up four spots. It doesn't take – How many touchdowns did you give him? Well, I will get to that. I have him sitting at 5.6 touchdowns right now based off of his statistics. Yes, he's an incredible prospect. And I projected him out with really solid numbers. I gave him a 25% target share.

That would be tied with Mike Evans for the sixth highest for a rookie over the last decade. And that turned into 127 targets. The problem is the ADP versus the Giants. Last year, Giants 30th in points per game, 31st in passing yards per game, three and out on over 40% of their drives. Sounds like

they needed Malik neighbors. Yes. You see, there's nowhere to go but up. We've discovered many times on this show, that's not true. You can go to the side. Maybe you don to go but up. But we've discovered many times on this show that's not true. You can go to the side. Maybe you don't go further down, but you can move laterally forever and ever and ever.

They have a quarterback problem. Is it Daniel Jones coming off the ACL? Is it Drew Locke? Right now it certainly sounds like it's going to be Daniel. Seems like Jones. Right now it sounds like it's going to be Daniel Jones, who, again, will be coming off of an ACL tear. The best fantasy finish for a wide receiver for Daniel Jones is wide receiver 35. That was Darius Slayton back in 2019. I'm not comparing the talent

level of Malik Nabors to Darius Slayton. There is a massive gap, but I am saying that this offense with Daniel Jones and his passing prowess is a problem. Over the last decade, we looked at every single rookie wide receiver over the last decade. If a team is in the bottom 10 of passing yards per game, we have one. One rookie wide receiver in the top 30. Top 30. And look, I've got the Giants projected in the bottom 10 of passing yards you guys aren't that far off from my projections when you actually dive into it Mike Evans got there because he had 12 receiving touchdowns so there is an outlier that can happen for him but overall I'm really

really worried about his situation in this first year. And just being the number one target of a team, volume is incredible. Jay, you said, but targets are absolutely different. Garrett Wilson, the most targets ever through the first two years of his career. Have we been happy with the Garrett Wilson ride for fantasy football? Absolutely not. So if you put Malik neighbors like back where we used to draft rookies, I would be all

about it. All about that upside. But he's being drafted as a top 20 guy. It's frustrating. And he's being drafted. Here's your choice. ADP. If you're going on a wide receiver, ADP. Debo. Michael Pittman. Jalen Waddle. Devonta Smith.

Cooper Cup. Oh, who's this guy? DK Metcalf. Yeah, I'm not taking him. I'm not. Look, I'm not taking him over, DK. But if you want him on your team, these are the guys. These are the wide receivers that you will have to.

That's redraft ADP right now? Yes. You will actively be choosing your opportunity cost for Malik Nabors is Jalen Waddell. It's Debo. There was a point in time where I thought Malik Nabors would probably end up on my guy. And that was because I thought that the fantasy community would factor in all of these negative things. They are not. Everything you say is true about the Giants.

And even if you look at Daniel Jones and the kind of yardage he puts up, like two years ago it was like 3,200 yards. Last year pace in the games he played not even counting the one he went out early if you just take the games he played full it's like a 3,000 yard pace now it's a little chicken and egg right because you can't throw for a lot of yards with no receivers you also had an offense built around Saquon Barkley where that was the fundamental kind of way that you try to execute your offense but i wish that the fantasy world was trying to drive that price down more effectively because i i would if he was the wide receiver 35 oh beautiful then we're not having this conversation of course i mean that that would be awesome and that the issue here displaying yourself is not should he be going

at adp i don't have going at ADP I don't have him at ADP I don't have him ranked there I think he's being drafted too high for like I'll go in not much but you've got him at 37 so when you talk about those other names no I'm not taking him over DK but when I'm looking at ADP you've got him around you know yeah let's bring some names up there Chris Godwin Mar marquise brown jordan addison ahead of them like the yeah i wouldn't take i take neighbors over all those of course you would there is the upside case to go with malik neighbors there and is the 37 it's don't get hung up on the 37 like jay you have him at 11.4 fantasy points per game. I have him at 10. Right.

It's not a drastic difference. The actual numeric ranking of him, he could be, like, by the time the season starts, maybe he'll be up in the low 20s for me. But that still won't change the fact that it's – yeah, this is why we tier-based draft, by the way, because he's going to be in a bucket with a bunch of other guys and just make sure you're paying attention to tiers. I don't think I – the names you mentioned, maybe.

Maybe I would take him over one or two of those guys. Maybe. Right. Depending on roster construction. Like, if I have no volatility at wide receiver one and I want volatility – like, I think Malik Neighbors is going to have a 200-yard game this and i want volatility like i think malik neighbors is going to have a 200 yard game this year like something like that if i want some more volatility then maybe i'm taking them over one of the steadier players around his adp but it's it's a

compelling case it is against and let me be clear this brings me pain i love it brings us pain i love malik neighbors i think that long term. I love Malik Neighbors. I think that long term, Malik Neighbors, it's going to be incredible. But this first year, with the way that everything is sitting right now, I want to get on board, but based off of what the market is doing, I can't get a ticket. I'm priced out. Yeah, and I'm not sure you really want to get on board with that ranking.

I got to be honest. What, 37? Because you ranked him there not sure you really want to get on board with that ranking. I got to be honest. What, 37? I think because you ranked him there, you don't want to get on board. You want to get off board, whatever that means. All right, quick break. Back with another. It's time to turn the spotlight away from me and my egregiously low ranking of Malik neighbors

and focus on something idiotic and stupid. Oh, boy. Oh, man. That the fearless captain of this show, Mr. Andrew Holloway, is doing. Jason, our king. Everyone's king. Yeah, not just our king. The king of fantasy football running backs, King Henry,

coming off a very solid season. He was on a bad team, though. He was. He was on a bad team. Still had a solid season. Now he's on a great team. Some may say a Super Bowl contending elite team. They don't do rushing touchdowns there.

No, they just do the most. They do all the rushing touchdowns. Whoops, I was wrong. I got King Henry. Get a room, guys. I got King Henry at 10. Oh, I got him at 10. Jason, you got him at 10.

You're being reasonable. Andy's over here saying he's just a bum. He's a wide receiver. He's running back 18. He's barely holding on to being an RB2. Yeah, I mean, my ranking is low for Derrick Henry. I agree with that. Now, I know that I don't know how much of a historical man you are, Mike, or like if you're, you know, the archaeologist. Oh, I'm a man of history.

Yeah. I mean, they dig and they find relics from the ancient past. And I have yet to find a king whose reign has lasted forever in those ancient relics. So at some point in time, a reign comes to an end. And my ranking of Derek Henry is more indicative of where I think there's a wider range of outcomes for the player this year than there has been in years past like the entirety of the offense in Tennessee was we literally would joke it's the Tennessee Derrick Henry's we would call them the Derrick Henry's because they he had the ball so often, and that was their identity. Now, he goes to Baltimore, a team that was on the cusp of Super Bowl contention last year, without it, by using a hodgepodge of other running backs. And so I acknowledge the realistic chance that Derrick Henry could have 15 touchdowns in this offense.

But I do think you are entirely going to be dependent on those type of numbers in terms of touchdowns, and that's going to be what makes or breaks Derrick Henry's season. And we can point to how many short yardage Gus Edwards touchdowns there were. That's great. But you also have an offense that the identity is Lamar Jackson. The identity is going to be some Zay Flowers, some Mark Andrews. The defense, right?

These were not elements in play in Tennessee. Last year, Derrick Henry had a good season, 12 touchdowns in Tennessee, had a great run in the year. He's 30 years old now. That's going to be a factor. The king is getting older, and he's not going to catch passes in this offense. How dare you? That's one of the fundamental realities. We all actually, you say how dare you, but we all have him catching fewer than 30. Of course he's not going to catch passes. It's very difficult to see it not being a touchdown-dependent season for him. I don't think he's going to run the ball as often as he did in Tennessee

because the offense is going to be built around, you know, we talk about Lamar Jackson losing weight and being more agile. Like, Lamar Jackson's going to have a yardage total that's pretty significant at the position. His efficiency, Derrick Henry's, has been going in the wrong direction. I've got him down at four a carry. You guys have him down at 4.4 a carry. So I do think that there's just a little bit more risk, and that's baked into how I'm drafting these players.

I think there's more upside with some of the other guys in my ranking. So that's kind of where I have him. It's lower because I think that there's a chance that you're disappointed with the draft selection this year, which has not been a reality in the past. So that's kind of where I have him. Like in the last decade, just to give you another number. Oh, I was hoping you'd bring this up.

There are only four running backs that are age 30 plus that hit double-digit total touchdowns. It's a rare thing. Along with fewer than 30 receptions. And that is AP did it. And he was drafted to do it. Yeah. But the other three guys were not even drafted.

It was just like incidental. It was LeGarrette Blunt. It was Mostert last year who was late round drafted. And then Mark Ingram. And how they finished. What do you mean? Well, what was like the finish of the guys that did, that had the fewer than 30 receptions?

Oh, the outliers? Yeah, the outliers finished really well at 2, 8, 8, and 2. So if he does something that is very low odds to do, he will have a very low odds great season. Like would you say Raheem Mostert was – I mean you drafted him in the first last year right no no sir okay okay so you didn't see that coming no I know nobody there has been one age 30 running back drafted where you guys want to draft him that pulled it

off that's all I'm saying the one one in in history so if one in history is the kind I mean I'm sure there was one king whose reign lasted a little bit longer than the rest. How did he finish? Running back two. Yes, the one guy. Yeah, I'm just saying. If you're going to bring up the example. So you're telling me...

Just let me get your argument straight. If he has a great season, he'll finish great. That's your argument right now. That's a good argument. If he has an amazing season statistically, you're saying that will translate to fancy points. Yeah, try poke holes in that one. Yeah, that one seems hard to break. Well, fewer than 30 receptions is a barometer that we're all conceding here and isn't a good thing.

Over 30 is something everyone's conceding because it's called a fact. So the real question is just touchdowns. Does he get 10? Right now, his DraftKings Sportsbook line is 10.5. That's the over-under. So it's not really this crazy outlier situation we're hoping for. We just need him to get 10.5 touchdowns. And then apparently you finish top 10 according to those four.

And one of the running backs was Mark Ingram on the Baltimore Ravens in a somewhat similar offense. Yeah, we know Lamar's not going to throw it to him. I believe that we talk a lot about Travis Kelsey. He's older. Your worries about him and the reason neither of you have him ranked number one, I think. Do you have him at one? I do have him at one, I believe.

Okay. One of the concerns about Travis Kelsey that was being made was what is the goals of the, of the team to win a bunch of regular season games. Do you want to stretch Derek Henry out in the first eight games of the season when you need to close strong and go into the playoffs and play extra football games? Like that is a strong consideration.

Like the Yeti, like sometimes the Yeti gets saved. Like he doesn't come out until the games matter and I am concerned about that like if I am the Ravens and I'm going into the season with a 30 year old Derrick Henry my plan is not to depend on Derrick Henry to the degree that Tennessee did because I want him for the first and second and third round of the playoffs I don't want to give him 25 carries a game and then lose him for the back half of the year. So I think his range

of outcomes is more extreme than you two have factored in. And I've ranked him as the king. That's fine. That's acceptable. It's understandable. I'm going to hit this button again. Oh, yeah, let's go! Jake, can you do it live?

I am doing it. UDK, cool. Yeah. Little Big Shibby. Yeah. Yeah. UDK, cool. UDK.

UDK, UDK, UDK. UDK, UDK, UDK, UDK, UDK, UDK. Those are very athletic dance moves. Thank you. He's surprisingly athletic. That's what they say. For the podcasters, you know, the listeners at home, you really need to watch this. Because Jason's got, he's putting the moves on display.

Well, and you really need to get the Ultimate Draft Kit. So go to ultimatedraftkit.com, check it out. You can download the app. It is up. It is released. Not just the UDK Plus. All of it is out there for your perusal. I thought you were going to say free.

I thought you were about to say it's out there for free. It is 100% free after you buy it. So just get the UDK Plus. One low price and it's free the rest of the offseason. That's right. UltimateDraftKid.com. I think we need to shut this down. Hopefully you enjoyed the surprise episode today.

We wanted to celebrate with you. Mock draft episode on Tuesday next week. Thursday we're doing some keep trade cut, which should be a lot of fun. And if you want to watch Jason dance, that's youtube.com slash the fantasy footballers. That will do it. That was pretty fun. I don't know how many minds were changed in here, but hopefully two of the information's out there.

Goodbye. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.