Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - The 2023 “My Guys” Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/18

Episode Date: August 18, 2023

It’s that special time of year! “My Guy” Picks on today’s fantasy football podcast! Find out which players Andy, Mike, and Jason don’t want to leave 2023 fantasy football drafts without! Don...’t miss the annual Footballers tradition! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for August 18th, 2023. Dive into the 2023 Ultimate Draft Kit + Draft Analyzer! UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on Twitter Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Check out today's sponsors: News & Notes presented by USAA. Visit https://USAA.com/Insurance Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,
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Starting point is 00:00:51 Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. Foot Clan, here we are, the My Guys episode of the show, and I'm excited to reveal some big names on today's episode. A reminder, we're giving away the UDK for Life. All you have to do to be eligible to win, go to ultimatedraftkid.com, pick up the 2023 UDK, and we're going to give away a UDK for Life this afternoon on the live stream. Do not miss it. Enjoy the show.
Starting point is 00:01:23 Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in! Friday, August 18th. Welcome into the My Guys episode of the show. Mike Wright is here. I am here. I did not. It's My guy time. Jason wants everything to be a time now. I'm so proud of what you did. I had to restrain. I called him off.
Starting point is 00:02:13 Yeah. No, you're right. You saw me. I wanted it. It's my guy time. I think that the people want that as well, but you are correct. You can't just do it all the time. The reason we want it is because it's special. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:02:26 It's because he says no most of the time. He denies it. It builds up demand. I cannot wait for it's Monday time. He just wants every day of the week. Welcome in one and all. It is our My Guys episode of the show. Very excited to dig into nine players that we have strong flag-planting conviction on going to make
Starting point is 00:02:50 the case for each of our my guys today and uh look i don't i don't know how you guys feel about the names that i'm throwing out and vice versa. So I think there'll be some agreement, some disagreement, some prove it to me sentiment here on the show. Jason Moore, present and accounted for as well. And I'm Andy Holloway. So excited to have you with us. You can find us on X at the
Starting point is 00:03:18 FF Ballers. Follow Jason at Jason FFL. Mike at FF Hitman. I'm at Andy Holloway. The Deucers are in the building. They will also be helping us out this afternoon because we have a very special live stream, 6 Eastern, 3 Pacific, giving away the UDK for life. It's our yearly giveaway. Also a signed Derrick Henry jersey,
Starting point is 00:03:43 a signed T. Higgins mini helmet. That giveaway will take place at the end of the live stream. Throughout the live stream, we're going to be answering your questions, interacting with all the listeners. Whatever you want to talk about, that's what we'll be doing. Just having a good time. Having a good time. Having a good time.
Starting point is 00:04:00 Bob, Bob. All right. And then the only thing you need to do to enter is go to ultimate draft kit.com and pick up the UDK by 630 PM Eastern. And the winner, like I said, it'll be announced today. So I'm excited. That's coming this afternoon and the show, the, my guys episode, one of the most anticipated of the season.
Starting point is 00:04:20 It's here. We did it. But first let's talk some news. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. Not a lot to talk about. But Sam Howell has been named the commander starting quarterback for week one. Darn right he has.
Starting point is 00:04:43 Very excited about that. We might be talking about him in the next segment. commander starting quarterback for week one darn right he has very excited about that we might be talking about him in the next segment sam howell yeah okay just a little tease he might be my my guy oh okay are you gonna say that about every player we talk about before the my guys no just sam howell because i love if you'd switch to sam howell i I'll be, I mean, if you, if you. Jason loves Sam Howell. Look, I've been a believer since college. I just don't know how much of it is the Howell. That's the problem with you.
Starting point is 00:05:12 Right. No, I get it. If his name was more benign, if it didn't give you the chance to literally Howell at the moon, would you like him? Less, for sure less. But I do think that he can be, I think he can be an actual NFL starter. There's no way he likes this guy if he's Jim Smith. If he's Jim Smith, this guy's a loser. But, no, he's played great in camp.
Starting point is 00:05:34 He's earned the job. I mean, we have preseason football yet to come, and he has established himself, built some excitement. We have an offensive coordinator change in Washington, so lots of reasons to be excited. And guess what? They get to play Arizona week one. We will definitely be talking about that later.
Starting point is 00:05:51 It's a good place to be. The Athletic is projecting Malik Davis being left off the roster for the Cowboys backup running back. Rico Dowdle is currently the number two behind Tony Pollard. Who is Rico Dowdle? That could be one of the things you've said out loud recently very much so uh he is a a player who's been kind of on and off the the Cowboys roster I mean really no investment the the only difference here for Rico I mean you have you have Deuce Vaughn which I don't know maybe Deuce Vaughn is a real thing, but it would certainly be an outlier.
Starting point is 00:06:28 But Dowdle is, he's the only beef boy on the roster. And he's not even that beefy. No, I know. Six foot, 215. Beefy. He's the only beef boy. Surprise. What?
Starting point is 00:06:44 Saints running back Kendra Miller returned to practice. He is wearing a brace on his right knee, but he's back, but it's good to see him out there. And it means the injury doesn't seem to be long-term. We thought it was more serious than apparently it was. Cause they didn't say he's out indefinitely. That's correct. Had they said that I would know, Oh, he could be back tomorrow. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:07:02 My guys will be revealed in an indefinite period of time. One other update that is similar to this with Kendra Miller is that Taron Armstead, who was carted off yesterday, we talked about in the news for the Dolphins, their left tackle. It looks like his injury is not going to be a season ender. He's going to be out a little while, but he will be back for the majority of the season. Yeah, and so big news for Tua, who needs to avoid taking as many hits as possible this season.
Starting point is 00:07:34 I don't think we have anything else unless, Al, you got anything for us? No, sir. All right. That was today's News and Notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Nothing you can take can tear me away from my God. The vintage video drop. How have we not updated that?
Starting point is 00:08:02 Because we will never update that. Is that where it's reached now? Yes. And I know most people are listening, so it means nothing to you. But it's bad. Just be happy you're a listener today and not a watcher of the show. Every year we have to go. I have to make an actual physical trip to the Smithsonian.
Starting point is 00:08:21 Oh, to retrieve that? Yeah, I've got to give them a bunch of tickets and things, and then they hand me an old eight millimeter film and that's where that's from. Yeah. Some great CGI. All right. Uh,
Starting point is 00:08:34 but that's not the important thing here. We are planting our flags on our favorite players heading into the year. Um, instilling some confidence for the listeners out there to select these players where they're being drafted. Talk to me, Mike, about, before I reveal my first one, what makes a my guy? So a my guy is, it's a player that no matter what their ADP is, you are targeting them.
Starting point is 00:09:03 Now some of these players are going to maybe feel a little bit scary because this is an early round pick, and this is a high draft capital pick, someone that has to come through. Sometimes it's just your favorite value in the draft. I know that I have one of my guys is just, I think he's just an incredible mid-round value, and then one of them just happens to be my favorite player at the position when you factor in everything from their ceiling, their floor,
Starting point is 00:09:33 their draft position, their ADP. So it's a whole range of variables that put together just our favorite players and players that we are heavily targeting where we can possibly get them in drafts. Yeah, and again, it's trying to, you know, we've talked a lot. We've been doing the show since 2015, the My Guys episode, and they've certainly, we've had some big-time hits, we've had some big-time misses throughout the process. That is normal when you are attempting to identify players
Starting point is 00:10:03 that aren't necessarily the, community has been getting wiser over the years. There's a lot of information out there, and we are looking to break the mold and give you an advantage with these players. Well, I think in fairness this year to make sure that I hit and get these right, my three, my guys, they just so happen to be the first three ADP off the board. CMC, Jamar Chase, and Justin Jefferson. I'm planting my flag. I'm going to be bold. I think they're going to have great seasons. So Jason, that's it.
Starting point is 00:10:38 That's it. I am done. Which is hilarious because it's a joke that's right there, but it's actually, that actually scarier than you think. No. Because the odds that one of those guys has an offseason or has an unfortunate injury, they exist. All right.
Starting point is 00:10:56 It is time to get to it, and I'm going to kick it off with my first MyGuy, a player that I have the greatest conviction on of my three MyGuys, my absolute number one favorite pick of the season, MyGuy number one. Mike Evans. It's Mike Evans, wide receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yesterday in the office when I was talking about Mike Evans to Al Borland himself, I mentioned my great conviction on how wonderful a pick Mike Evans will be this year,
Starting point is 00:11:31 who presently is going as the wide receiver 33 on sleeper. And he goes, you know, how old is Mike Evans? He's like 31, right? He's 29 years old.? He's 29 years old. Mike Evans is 29 years old. Last year was a bumpy ride. And when you look at the game logs for Mike Evans, it really came down to a stretch beyond the first half of the season.
Starting point is 00:11:57 It was the run-up to his monstrous league-winning number one overall in the week, three-touchdown performance. Thank you, Mike. It was the decline of Tom Brady. It was the farewell tour of Tom Brady as they sub-500ed themselves into the NFL playoffs. So it was a rough ride. There's a lot of burns.
Starting point is 00:12:18 There's Kyle Pitts-level burns with Mike Evans over that last stretch of the season. But here's what I want you to know about Mike Evans over that last stretch of the season. But here's what I want you to know about Mike Evans. And here's why you should not doubt Mike Evans heading into the 2023 season. It wasn't his fault last season. Mike Evans graded higher last year as a receiver. According to Pro Football Focus in the wide receiver grades. He graded higher last year than he had in each of the prior Tom Brady seasons. That's number one. Number two, he's at a thousand straight yards in nine years, averaging 9.44 touchdowns per year in that stretch. Last year, which wasn't a good
Starting point is 00:12:58 ride, had him finish in 15 games played, not 17, as the wide receiver 16, and he's being drafted literally twice as far back in drafts right now at wide receiver 33. Previous seasons, 8, 10, 12, 8, 18, 2, 24, 12, never even been close to wide receiver 33. The problem that people have with Mike Evans right now has to do with the quarterback situation. So let's say the teacher has come to you and says, here's the test that you have to pass,
Starting point is 00:13:30 Mike Evans, for me to draft you. And there'll be extra credit at the end of the test. But here's question number one. Can you handle having a quarterback that isn't Tom Brady? There's literally nobody else in the National Football League who has proven that he is immune to quarterback play more than Mike Evans. He has played with Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston, Ryan Griffin, Blaine Gabbert, Tom Brady, and yes, this year he gets Baker Mayfield and maybe Kyle Trask. I'm going to say it's possible, right? Baker is not locked into that spot. But here's what I like about this situation. Mike Evans is the best friend a quarterback can possibly have. He is a physical beast. He beats you down the field. And when you look at Baker
Starting point is 00:14:17 Mayfield, here's the next question on the test. Baker Mayfield is a really, really good deep ball thrower. In 2021, when he was with Cleveland, he was ranked sixth in terms of deep ball passers. He had a 112 passer rating going deep. It was better than Cousins, Herbert, Josh Allen that year. And then you go, well, okay, that's 2021. What about last year? Last year, he played for two different teams. Last year he had a better deep ball adjusted completion percentage than Josh Allen. He actually had more 20-plus yard touchdowns last year than Patrick Mahomes did. That's impossible.
Starting point is 00:14:56 Despite having half the attempts down the field. Baker Mayfield can throw the ball deep, and Mike Evans makes it so your margin of error throwing the ball deep is so you can make mistakes, and he's actually good at doing it. They have a defense that's going to set the table for this offense to have to throw the ball all the time. And then here's the extra credit on the test. Just the superlatives coming out of camp.
Starting point is 00:15:22 Best shape of his life? No. Jason, the general manager, said he expects him to get a ton of targets russell gage just went out when we have to talk about kate otten as a target in this offense which no disrespect to him but like it's going to be the mike evans in the chris godwin show and i like mike evans the most as a, my guy, because he's generally going around or two later than Chris Godwin is. This is a player that wants to be a legend in the sport. He's come out and said, he wants to break the thousand yard consecutive streak that Jerry Rice has. He's come out recently and said, he wants to break the Randy Moss, 23 touchdowns in a season number. So you're talking about a player that can get to double digit touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:16:04 You're talking about a player that is going to be filled up with targets all season long. I just don't understand the ADP at wide receiver 33. I still think he has top 15 potential at the wide receiver position with Baker Mayfield, with Kyle Trask. There's my Mike Evans case. And I know for a fact that Jason is not in the Mike Evans camp. And I also know he's been burnt. I know he's dealing with the Kyle Pitts type of feelings because last year he didn't enjoy the ride. It's really tough because I own a signed Mike Evans jersey thanks to his Week 17 championship gift that he gave me.
Starting point is 00:16:40 And so I do love Mike Evans forever and always for that. But the path getting there was so rough. He had, I think, 43 points in one week and 36 points in another week. And then, you know, you take those two games out, the consistency wasn't there. And I know you say, well, he's quarterback proof. But then the argument is like, well, it was Tom Brady's fault last year. It was seven bad games. That's really what it was for Mike Evans.
Starting point is 00:17:07 You're going to wipe out nine years of 1,000-yard season. I started him in all seven of those. He had seven bad games. The pace for the first nine weeks of the season was 1,300 yards, six touchdowns, same old, same old, and you forget. I mean, he still had 77 for 1,106 last year. I just don't. That's like a low Mike Evans line.
Starting point is 00:17:29 Yeah, I get it. And I do think that where he's being drafted right now is a good value on yesterday's mock draft. Yeah, yesterday's mock was a good example. Mayhem show where Mike was able to get him was unbelievable. He will probably beat his ADP. The question that I was going to ask is one of your final statements, which is what is his ceiling?
Starting point is 00:17:49 Does he still have top 15 potential? That's where I question it, but obviously he's done it so many times that I can see it happening again. If he wasn't a touchdown scorer, if that wasn't part of the equation for him, like an Amon Ra or Keenan six touchdown is kind of where you settle. I would agree that with this quarterback situation and where this team might be this year, I don't think that ceiling exists, but Mike Evans could put up 12 in this offense.
Starting point is 00:18:16 I think that's very possible. And so that that's where I sit. That's my conviction. And you can ride or die with me if you want to. I think that Mike Evans is a good pick at his ADP because he should beat it. He should get to 1,000 yards. This is who Mike Evans is as a player.
Starting point is 00:18:33 And the upside case to me for Mike Evans is the target share comes back. I know target share is relative to the piece of the pie and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the last couple years with Tom Brady have been throwing pretty much more than any other team in NFL history, but the target share reflects that. So it's like 20% last year, 2021, 16%, and 18%. What happens if the pie shrinks but we get back to Mike Evans
Starting point is 00:19:03 seeing 26%, 27% of of the targets and then it just completely balances out the the lack of volume and the unfortunate injury to Russell Gage I think that that puts that back in the conversation yeah you'd have to go back to 2015-2016 when he was up at 30 percent I mean I did I couldn't even bring myself to mention the 30%. Yeah, but 24%, 22%, 22%. If he gets a 30% target share this year, he might be the best pick in fantasy football. And don't let this be a Baker Mayfield case in terms of go get Baker Mayfield.
Starting point is 00:19:39 I just like the fact that Baker, we saw it last year with the Rams. He'll chuck it. He'll throw the ball up. I mean, that's something he's willing to do and he's been successful with. Who's up next? I'll go next. Congratulations
Starting point is 00:19:51 on getting Baker Mayfield as your first MyGuy. Is this the Sam Howell pick here? Yes. It is. Sam Howell is my first MyGuy. He is so talented and he will win fantasy championships for people. Oh, that clip is perfect.
Starting point is 00:20:10 That is not the truth. No, my first my guy should surprise nobody who's been listening to the show this entire offseason or even recently because it's a common comment to say that this player is an automatic in the third round for me mark andrews mark andrews all season i have been banging the drum i have been the drum the drum has been banged against me for mark andrews you have become the drum every single mock draft every single real draft when i'm in the middle of the third round, I love grabbing Mark Andrews. I think he is discount Travis Kelsey.
Starting point is 00:20:50 And I think sometimes when I say that, people say, oh, that's nice, Jason. You're very handsome. I respect you. I don't say those things. But Mark Andrews is not Travis Kelsey. And okay, maybe he isn't, but I am going to make the case that I actually think he can be the number one tight end, and he has a really good shot this year to do that. So for my guy dissertation, because that's what this is, we're getting PhDs for this,
Starting point is 00:21:18 I want to give the case of how good Mark Andrews can be. He can be a smash home run league winning pick this year. Last year, he sucked down the stretch. He got injured. You lost Lamar Jackson, and that is why he's in the middle of the third round. You know, you got to remember what happened. He gets injured in week eight. He misses week nine. After week 10, you have the bye, and Lamar plays in two games and then gets injured, and Andrews' season was blah. But before that, when you had Lamar and you had healthy Mark Andrews, through the first six weeks, he was on pace for 161 targets, 110 receptions, 1,289 yards, and 14 touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:22:02 He was being the Mark Andrews that he was the previous year when he was the number one tight end in fantasy football. It wasn't Kelsey. It was Andrews, and then he just kept being a terror, and then those unfortunate injuries happened. If you're on Yahoo, goodness gracious, he's dropping into the fourth round. His average draft position right now is 312. I think the value there to get a difference maker at the tight end position is incredible. Here's the special case I want to highlight about Mark Andrews that we haven't really talked about before. We've been discussing new offensive coordinator Todd Monken coming in for the Baltimore Ravens,
Starting point is 00:22:43 the change in their pace, the fact that they're going to throw the ball a lot more. They ran three wide receiver sets, 81% so far in the preseason, which is a drastic change from the low 12% that we saw last year. And we say, oh, that's great for the wide receivers. But what does that mean for Mark Andrews? You know, will they turn him into a blocking tight end since he's the only tight end on the field? Nope. No, no, no. I mean, goodness. No. Mark Andrews has blocked in the passing game 27 times in his career. Wait, what? Mark Andrews. That can't be true. Yes. As a Raven, he passed block 27 times in his entire five-year career. You want to know how many times he passed block last season? How did we figure this out? You know how many times he passed block last season?
Starting point is 00:23:36 Once. One time. He is the wide receiver one for this team. Gotcha. This is kind of the piggyback of if Dalton Kincaid was a rookie wide receiver you might be okay with it Mark Andrews is not a tight end is what you're saying Mark Andrews is not a tight end he is not there to block 27 times in his career in his career that's from PFF yeah yeah the data's from PFF he ran a route on 90 of the ravens drop backs last year that was tied for number one at tight end he
Starting point is 00:24:06 was targeted on 25 of his routes last year that is number one among tight ends to put that number into perspective it is better than any travis kelsey season ever i hope he was asked to pass block over 500 times i hope he literally passed he just literally olayed the guy through i want to run route zay flowers has been dominating looks great in camp i love it but the number one target still out of camp the reports are mark andrews is still the guy he's the number one guy they're going to pass more he is in the third round not the first round round. You're sacrificing taking Travis Etienne or Aaron Jones instead of sacrificing taking Austin Eckler in the first when you go with Travis Kelsey.
Starting point is 00:24:52 Let me ask you a question, genuinely, because the case is there. I absolutely see the discounted Travis Kelsey. If you want the advantage at a onesie position, your best dice roll is going to be Mark Anderson III versus the guarantee of what you have to have with kelsey i know that kelsey's going to finish one or two at the position historically are you unhappy if you got four or five out of mark andrews super unhappy if mark andrews finishes at at four or five assuming it's not because of injury well if he plays a whole season and finishes a tight end five,
Starting point is 00:25:25 yeah, I won't be happy. Well, you wouldn't be happy with injury either. No, no, no. Well, I mean, but yeah. But I'm actually making that point. I'm saying like three of the past four years, he's been four or five at the position. So it's been a ton of variables.
Starting point is 00:25:36 It's been injury, quarterback, but it's still been the reality. So would you be unhappy with him at four or five? That's all I was asking. I think that at the end of the season, he will be the tight end 2 or the tight end 1, period. Okay. Anything to add there, Mike?
Starting point is 00:25:51 No. Mark Andrews is a sensational pick in the third. All right. We're going to be back with Mike's My Guy momentarily. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially,
Starting point is 00:26:18 giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. We're back with MyGuy. This is my favorite MyGuy when I calculate, or when I factor in everything that's going on around this player. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:26:45 I mean, they say you don't like have a favorite child, but everyone knows that's not true. You just can't tell your children who the favorite is. Right. And we don't tell our my guys who a favorite is, but I do because I put him in the wide receiver one spot. We're talking about Tyler Lockett. Tyler Lockett of the Seattle Seahawks much like Mike Evans is being extremely disrespected when it comes to ADP currently on sleeper the wide receiver 30 going at the back of the sixth round the player who has finished top 15 five straight years is being drafted as the wide receiver 30.
Starting point is 00:27:25 And he doesn't even have a quarterback problem. Were those your top two wide receivers in the mock draft, Tyler Lockett and Mike Evans? They were. They were. And I realized that when I took Evans yesterday, I was like, oh, Andy will appreciate this big. Yeah, a little premonition.
Starting point is 00:27:40 But like where I'm not out on Mike Evans, but Mike Evans, maybe you are out because you're like, ah, he's a Baker Mayfield problem. Ty Lockett has Geno Smith, who was literally the most accurate quarterback in the NFL last year as a starter. And he gets it done year after year after year. I understand they spent a first round pick on Jackson Smith and Jigba, the first wide receiver of this year's draft, a truly electric player who I think is going to have a fantastic career.
Starting point is 00:28:10 But the Seattle Seahawks are not done with Tyler Lockett. There was nothing on film, nothing that we watched of Tyler Lockett last year. We go, uh-oh, uh-oh, Tyler Lockett may not have it. Top 15, like I said, five straight years. Tyler Lockett will be the starting outside wide receiver in two sets. It's also not uncommon when they're in a one wide receiver set for it to be Tyler Lockett. Last year, Seattle was a big play offense.
Starting point is 00:28:36 This is surprising information from what we know of Pete Carroll, but last year they ranked eighth in pass rate over expectation, eighth in explosive pass rate. Last year, they had 30 touchdowns of 10 plus yards. That was the most in the NFL. 71% of their total touchdowns came outside the 10 zone. When you have DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, that absolutely makes sense. Over the last two years, Tyler Lockett has 11 touchdowns of 20 or more yards that is tied with Devontae Adams for the most in the NFL. And it's just Tyler Lockett started this train back in 2018, and I remember that season because Russell Wilson
Starting point is 00:29:14 had a perfect passer rating going to Tyler Lockett, and it was, he can't keep getting away with this. No one can keep doing this over and over and over, and yet here we are. Tyler Lockett just keeps getting doing this over and over and over and yet here we are Tyler Lockett just keeps getting it done over and over if you want to project into the future that that Jason is going to take over and be the number two target for the Seattle Seahawks that's fine but it is not happening this year where with Tyler Lockett on his contract with still plenty more to give you want the one thing two things I'll add to your argument,
Starting point is 00:29:47 if you don't mind. One, no receiver's probably better at working back to the quarterback when a play is developing than Tyler Lockett has been over the past few years. And the one other area where, like, I've wanted to throw the shade on Tyler Lockett because JSN is that good. He's had that good of a camp. He is. He is a tremendous player.
Starting point is 00:30:02 He's had an incredible camp. But what I haven't really considered, and you know how bullish I am on DK Metcalf, is I haven't necessarily thought that JSN could negatively impact Metcalf because of Metcalf's age. It's easy to be discriminatory towards the older Tyler Lockett and think, oh, DK Metcalf won't be affected, but Lockett will be. Right.
Starting point is 00:30:23 Whereas Tyler Lockett has kind of proven narratives wrong for the duration of his career, and this is a team that's going to have to throw the ball a lot. And it's just he, Tyler Lockett, is an outlier player. At this point of his career, you have to look and say a guy who last year was playing in his year 30 season, and he was still fantastic. He just is an outlier of a player.
Starting point is 00:30:48 In fact, over – I never thought that you'd be able to use Geno Smith as a point in his favor compared to Baker Mayfield. Here we are. You're like, this guy, you have a Baker Mayfield problem, but guess what? I got Geno. Here we are. In fact, over the last five years on a per target basis
Starting point is 00:31:07 he is in fact the most valuable player in the NFL over the last five years on a per target basis the targets are still going to be there I don't think this team completely morphs away from what they were having success on offense this past year. And like I said, wide receiver 30. Maybe you aren't as bullish on me that Tyler Lockett can once again finish as a top 15 wide receiver. Well, that's okay. You don't have to be. What if Tyler Lockett finishes as wide receiver 22, 23?
Starting point is 00:31:46 He's still an absolute smash pick at wide receiver 30 going in the back of the sixth round it's just it is it is an automatic pick for me it was an automatic pick most for most of the offseason for jason i believe yeah ty lockett is one of your highest exposure he is my most he's my highest exposure i had to make a rule to stop drafting him because i i just couldn't you know if he got injured he would ruin all of my leagues. How will you be able to handle the inevitable actual decline of Tyler Lockett? I'm not talking about this year. I'm saying like when he – like Frank Gore was eternal until he wasn't. Like Tyler Lockett will hit.
Starting point is 00:32:20 Certainly. Like could you two handle that? I think we will be able to predict it. I think we'll see it on the field. We'll see some of the decline, and then the following year we'll be out. That's my guess. Oh, I hope you turn on him the way you did Adam Thielen. Oh, exactly.
Starting point is 00:32:34 I hope you hate him. He is a perfect, perfect example because of how terrible and putrid Adam Thielen was last year. Yeah, you saw the decline of Adam Thielen. We have not seen the decline of Tyra Lockett. And then just another feather in his cap, which NFL people may cringe when they see it, because Tyra Lockett catches the ball, and he says, You shall not hit me. And he just goes out of bounds, or he dives to the ground.
Starting point is 00:33:02 Literally lays down. He paid Mannings. This is part of his success. Why is Tyler Lockett still wide receivers? Why is Lockett still this great when he's going to be 31? Because he doesn't take big hits. He's also little, so it's a smart move. He says, I don't want this in my life.
Starting point is 00:33:17 The whole Darren Sproles had his big goodbye essay. I don't know what to call it, but he brought up getting hit is just terrible. That's why I tried not to get hit. And Tyler Lockett read that and goes, Mr. Sproles, you are on to something. So Tyler Lockett, Mike's first my guy. Let's move on. I'm going to reveal my second my guy. And I'm very excited about this player i am entering territory that
Starting point is 00:33:47 is very dangerous here on the fantasy footballers podcast i'll explain why or maybe you'll understand it inherently but my second my guy is jameer gibbs running back jameer gibbs of the detroit lions in fact when we put out a few uh social media messages asking the Foot Clan to try to guess my guys, this was the one most often mentioned around my name. And I don't feel like I've gone on monologues about Jameer Gibbs. Yeah, I thought it was interesting. I think what has happened is that every single mock draft we've ever had this offseason,
Starting point is 00:34:24 it's organically been a target to pick up jameer gibbs like i mentioned him and i prefer him and i take him above other players because it's his gravitational pull you can't you can't get out of it which historically on this show and historically in life uh running backs for the Detroit Lions not named Barry Sanders. It has not gone well. Whether it's the Abdullah Express. Yeah. Hey, still in the league.
Starting point is 00:34:54 Or that Kerryon Johnson guy. Oh, my gosh. Abdullah's in the league. Yeah, you're doing right. He is. And Kerryon isn't. But listen, the Jameer Gibbs, I'm going to have the guts of steel. I'm going to go out on the limb and I'm going to have the guts of steel. I'm going to go out on the limb, and I'm going to take a shot.
Starting point is 00:35:12 I'm going to target the late third round number 12 overall pick for the Detroit Lions, Jameer Gibbs. He's a rookie. I know it. But what I love about this pick in fantasy is that you're not just drafting a floor player. You're going to get a guaranteed floor with Jameer Gibbs. What you're drafting is a ceiling. You're drafting the potential to be a massive impact player
Starting point is 00:35:31 for your fantasy team, and you're getting him late in the third round. It is not outlandish to believe that Jameer Gibbs will be talked about as a top five draft pick in next year's draft. That is a possibility, and this is the only time you're going to get to do what I'm doing, which is taking him in the third round of drafts. He was drafted at 12 overall, and the history we have with running backs taken
Starting point is 00:35:57 that high in the draft, your floor is so incredibly high. We had Gurley, Zeke, McCaffrey, Saquon, Jacobs, Clyde, and then this year, Bijon and Jameer Gibbs. So you're talking about since 2015, those are the first round running backs. Clyde and Jacobs were the worst first year performers, but they were picked 24 and 32 in the first round. And they still gave you the floor I'm talking about at 12.2 fantasy points per game for Clyde and 14 fantasy points per game for Josh Jacobs. The other guys that were drafted up near the Gibbs range, Zeke was 20 a week.
Starting point is 00:36:39 McCaffrey Barkley was 21 a week. McCaffrey was at 11.8. So he was a little bit lower as a floor but Gurley was 15.2 so you're talking about super young age 21 season running backs with first round draft capital we've talked a lot
Starting point is 00:36:56 about the fact that targets are going to be the name of the game for Jameer Gibbs targets are worth two and a half times a rush attempt which means that in a full PPR league, which is especially enticing for Jameer Gibbs, if you have 125 rush attempts, which I think Jameer Gibbs will absolutely get to 125, and you have 70 targets, that's worth 335 carries. So if I told you you got 335 carries from a running back, you're taking it 312, 310, 311 in a fantasy draft.
Starting point is 00:37:26 You would scoop that up. The unknown of the rookie performance is what puts a lot of fear into people. And I think Jameer Gibbs is just that guy. I think Jameer Gibbs from a talent perspective is that good. You look at the Lions offense. Last year, they were fifth in points per game, fourth in total yards. They averaged in home games 58 plus total points per game in terms of fantasy production. And here's the biggest stat, maybe because we've all kind of revealed something a little
Starting point is 00:37:58 unknown about a player we've been talking about. The Detroit Lions backfield led the entire NFL in fantasy points per game last year they were better than every other team and that was with Jamal Williams and DeAndre Swift and they literally upgraded both of those players this offseason Jameer Gibbs was targeted in the draft by the Lions it surprised people but they went out and basically said we're going to draft you at 12 and we're going to build an offense around you and so I think this is the one chance you're going to get to have a discount on a player that's going to make you at 12 and we're going to build an offense around you. And so I think this is the one chance you're going to get to have a discount on a player that's going to make a huge impact.
Starting point is 00:38:27 And you're going to get big games from it. You're going to get a floor, but you're going to get huge games. You're going to get the screen pass that goes 74 to the house. You're going to get, I mean, the baked-in upside that Mike mentioned on some situations yesterday where, you know, what if David Montgomery gets big? Yes, exactly. If David Montgomery was not there right now, where's Jameer Gibbs in draft? He's high second round, late first.
Starting point is 00:38:48 Yeah, late first. Yeah, I mean, he's big. He'd probably be drafted right after Bijan. Yeah, I mean, you look at Bijan was, what was he, eighth in the draft? 108, Gibbs was 112. There's a little bit of that. You have to spend the first round pick on Bijan.
Starting point is 00:39:02 You get to spend a late third on Jameer Gibbs. Both players drafted with the intent to build an offense around him. So to spend a late third on Jameer Gibbs both players drafted with the intent to build an offense around him so I'm a big fan of Jameer Gibbs and I think he's going to be a great fantasy pick this year young explosive super athletes are usually really good picks for fantasy football rookie running backs are usually really good picks for fantasy football. First round rookie running backs are almost always good picks in fantasy football. Detroit Lions RB1?
Starting point is 00:39:35 It gets scary. Does that one red flag just stop everything from happening? Carry on my wayward son. All right, let's move on. Yeah. Do you realize what you've just done to yourself, Andy? Oh, I'll take it. The fantasy reaper. I'm willing.
Starting point is 00:39:53 No, I was saying hitting the drop. Yeah. That's poking the bear. I'm brave as a lion. All right. I am going to stay in that division. And my next my guy is someone that I just had a bug in me. I had to have this guy. Welcome aboard. As a my guy.
Starting point is 00:40:15 Justin Fields. Justin Fields, at the end of last year, when I was leaving the season, I was like like I just can't forget how dominant he was I can't allow anything to get in the way of that that was like one of those things to remember as I left the season and what happened last year if you if you remember or maybe you don't I will remind you there was a a philosophical shift in the offense and how they used Justin Fields. The coaching staff came out and literally said, because they were like, what changed? We went and looked at the other great mobile quarterbacks, the Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and we saw how they were used, and so we started doing that.
Starting point is 00:41:00 And it was really cool. It was really good for fantasy football. They changed everything to make him better. It was the coolest, man. Here's what they did. They gave him more designed runs. So a designed run is basically his rushing attempts minus scrambles and kneel downs. The first six weeks, 2.17 designed runs per game.
Starting point is 00:41:20 From that point on, 7 through 18, it was up to 5.3 designed runs per game. From that point on, 7 through 18, it was up to 5.3 designed runs per game. He averaged 7.1 yards per carry, highest in the NFL. He averaged 10.6 rush attempts per game and the most quarterback scrambles of all time. He tied Lamar Jacks for the most rushing games of 80 plus yards with seven of those, and he is just getting started. We haven't seen the best Justin Fields yet. Over the last decade, 13 quarterbacks have had more than seven and a half rushing attempts per game and started at least 15 games. Okay. Remember he just averaged 10.6. I'm setting the bar here at only seven and a half. I think that he definitely hits seven and a half rushing attempts. So if we assume that that, which I think is fair, if we assume that let's take a look at the 13 quarterbacks that have had that many rushing attempts, they average 22 and a5 fantasy points per game in four-point leagues. There are guys like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts. Here are their fantasy finishes for quarterbacks who have had that rushing baseline.
Starting point is 00:42:36 The quarterback two on the season. The quarterback one on the season. Four, three, two, two, three, one, five, and five for Justin Fields. It's all top five. The only finishes outside of the top five, well, you had quarterback six in 20-21 Hertz, and you had quarterback seven in 20-20 Lamar. They're all great. And there's Patriots Cam Newton.
Starting point is 00:43:05 Oh, yeah, we don't want to talk about that. But this not you know those are design jogs right exactly so that he doesn't jaunt design jaunt he doesn't count that version of Cam Newton was toast already um and on a bad offense that's not what what Justin Fields is Justin like I said, a young, explosive athlete. It's going to be a great pick. And then they upgraded his passing. They upgraded his offensive line. They got him DJ Moore, which we already saw a screen to the house, two screens to the house from this offense in training camp. And the reports out of camp are just absolutely awesome. The wrap-up article from The Athletic just said this, said you could see the difference in how he runs the offense. This is his team.
Starting point is 00:43:50 He is in charge. They aren't going away from designed runs. He has a better receiving core. He easily could be the quarterback one. He's basically, I mean, last year. He's the Jalen Hurts of this year. That's what I was going to say. Last year it was Jalen Hurts for me.
Starting point is 00:44:04 That worked out really well. This year, it's Justin Fields. A couple things. Based on the math that you just laid out there, the worst fantasy finish of players with that seven rushing attempts per game was number five. He's being drafted as a quarterback six right now. Below the floor, theoretically.
Starting point is 00:44:21 Secondly, you love Justin Herbert, too. I want to give you the chance to share on the Justins, but what you don't get with Justin Herbert is a kind of built-in, almost like the rushing is, it's like you got an insurance policy on the draft pick, right? Because Justin Herbert, if the touchdowns aren't what we hope, which look, I went back and looked at my bold predictions from last year.
Starting point is 00:44:42 I thought 5,000 yards, 45 touchdowns was going to happen for Justin Herbert. It didn't happen, so you're disappointed. Justin Fields gives you so much more protection, even if the passing game doesn't take the elevated step forward that we hope it does. Yeah, I had Justin Herbert locked on our board as my my guy for the last month he was he was gonna be it and then I just I said I can't I cannot not have Justin Fields I think they're both absolutely great picks they're the quarterbacks that I want in that uh fourth fifth
Starting point is 00:45:18 round okay I'm jumping in here with my number two wide guy. Wide guy? Wide guy. I like it. He's the widest. He's a big fatty. What's that? What did you say? The beef eater?
Starting point is 00:45:31 The beefy boy. Beef boy. Beef boy. Whatever. It's a wide receiver that I really like, guys. Oh, he's a wide guy. Chris Olave. Chris Olave, which I got to apologize.
Starting point is 00:45:41 I've been calling him Christopher. He's apparently Christian Olave. Oh, really? My sincerest apologies. Christian Olave, second-year wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints. Now, this one, it's a little tougher to have a my guy when they're this high up in the ADP. He is currently going at the 305 on sleeper. But my conviction of Chris Olave turning into an elite wide receiver, like Andy's making the case for Jameer Gibbs of like, you aren't going to be able to draft Jameer Gibbs there anymore after this year.
Starting point is 00:46:16 Chris Olave will not be anywhere close to this. 23 years old, heading into year two. And I'll start with the big comp because Garrett Wilson, last year's offensive rookie of the year, plays for the New York Jets, got himself a nice quarterback upgrade, got Aaron Rodgers now throwing him the ball. The excitement for Garrett Wilson is real, and I think it is justified. But remember this, last year, Olave outpaced him in points per game. On the season, Garrett Wilson appeared in all 17, Chris Olave appeared in 15 games, and yet Olave was just 12 total points fewer on the season than Garrett Wilson, and he's going a full round later
Starting point is 00:47:01 on ESPN. Looking at all the rookie wide receivers since 2014. And we got heavy hitters in this group. We got Beckham, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase. Only Tyreek Hill had a higher targets per route run than Christian Olave. This team already loved him as a first-year wide receiver, and he is truly the number one guy out of camp. They're talking about Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas just doesn't look like 2019 Michael Thomas,
Starting point is 00:47:34 which, yeah, of course, that's what we would expect a player to be. That was a long, long time ago. That was a very long time ago. That's multiple season-ending injuries ago, but I think they're making it clear. Chris Olave is next. You have Nick Underhill, beat reporter for the Saints, tweeting, Chris Olave looks like a expletive superstar.
Starting point is 00:47:58 The same Saints observation. The first fight of training camp. Yeah, we got that. And Chris Olave looks unstoppable. And these aren't just like Chris Olave is looking good out of training camp. It's holy crap. Chris Olave looks like he's about to take the leap and become the true next superstar. And he, while Olave was much better in the beginning half of the season when they had
Starting point is 00:48:22 Jameis Winston and when they turned to Andy Dalton, that was was a downgrade for him he has an upgrade at quarterback it's not an it's not as a sexy of an upgrade as getting Gino Smith it's not what I'm saying is Aaron Rodgers is for Garrett Wilson but Derek Carr while he has never come through for big time fantasy points himself he has given us fantasy weapons a ton in the past. Last year, the trade for Devontae Adams. Oh, crap. Can Adams do it without Aaron Rodgers? Yeah, wide receiver three.
Starting point is 00:48:53 The year before that, some guy named Hunter Renfro, which is a joke. Hunter Renfro is a good wide receiver, but wide receiver 11 on the year. Multiple years of Darren Waller being the tight end three, tight end two. Jared Cook. Remember the end two. Jared Cook. Remember the Jared Cook?
Starting point is 00:49:06 Jared Cook. The Jared Cook years. He finishes the tight end five. You can go back even further. You had Michael Crabtree years. You had Amari Cooper years. Derek Carr finds the target that he likes, and he's not afraid to go to that player over and over and over.
Starting point is 00:49:22 And that is sensational news for fantasy football. People doubted the downfield prowess of Adams last year, and they were proven. That was a mistake to doubt that. And Devontae Adams has the best year in success of going downfield that he's ever had. Derek Carr, I think Derek Carr with Chris Olave, we're talking about a superstar.
Starting point is 00:49:44 I want to play against Tampa. I want to about a superstar. I want to play against Tampa. I want to play against Atlanta. I want to play against Carolina for six of my games as well. That is also baked in that the preseason strength of schedule in our ultimate draft kit, if you go look at who's got the best schedule for the wide receiver position, boom, Christian Olave. So that's just an extra bonus point for a player that I see as a true emerging superstar.
Starting point is 00:50:07 This is my favorite my guy that is not one of mine. It's your favorite your guy? Christian Olave is going to dominate. I don't see any world where he doesn't. I mean, he's just too dang good at football. Not going to get an argument from me. But we're going to talk about another sophomore wide receiver for my third and final My Guy.
Starting point is 00:50:31 Jahan Dotson. Chris Olave was the 11th pick in last year's NFL draft. Jahan Dotson was the 16th pick in last year's NFL draft. Chris Olave is being drafted at 305. Jahan Dotson is being drafted at 801 right now. Dodson! Dodson! We've got Dodson here! Thanks, Al. Thank you. You got it. Dennis Nedry call out. Last year, Jahan Dodson
Starting point is 00:51:00 was at 14.9 yards per catch. Olave was at 14.5. I bring these guys up in comparison because there's a lot of similarities. Both of them had very impressive stretches of the season, disrupted by injuries. Olave's disrupted by quarterback play, and so was Jahan Dotson. The quarterback roulette in Washington has been ridiculous over the past few years. Both players would be way more hyped if they had a full season of football
Starting point is 00:51:22 last year. They'd be higher draft capital picks. But Jahan Dotson is at such an extreme discount in fantasy drafts. He started last year extremely on fire. All you need is eyeballs to watch what this guy is capable of doing on the field. Started his NFL career with two touchdowns in week one. Had a great four-game stretch, then missed five weeks due to a hamstring injury. And when he came back, this has been repeated this offseason,
Starting point is 00:51:50 but over those final five weeks when Jahan Dotson, who was a rookie, right, so he missed time as a rookie, still came back and still outpaced Terry McLaurin in terms of target share. 119 target pace, 1 receiving yards 10 touchdown 71 reception pace over the final five weeks with relative ineptitude at quarterback for this franchise so the discount to me is absolutely wild you want to take that discount to the next level hop over to espn if you're drafted on espn he's going at 907 which is the wide receiver 42 off the board, which is absolutely insane to me. And, you know, Mike is investing in a sophomore wide receiver. I'm investing in
Starting point is 00:52:31 a sophomore wide receiver as my, my guy, you should too. It's always all the rage. It's a great bet in fantasy. It is Jason. Actually you wrote an article a number of years ago called The Sophomore Bump. Mm-hmm. And it's real. It happens. Of the sophomore wide receivers with an average draft position of rounds four through eight, which is the Dotson zone, 90% of them beat their rookie fantasy points per game. 85% of them outperformed their ADP. The connection in camp with Mr. Howell, go ahead. How has been strong. And so you have an opportunity here to,
Starting point is 00:53:10 after you've built the core of your team to invest in Jahan Dotson and legitimately have a chance at, you know, 75 to 85 receptions over 1100 yards receiving. And last year we saw the touchdown upside in Jahan Dotson. He can get into the end zone and so i it's not a knock on terry mcclure and it's a 1a 1b that you're getting this late in the draft and if chris howell has any of the talent that jason has professed that he does which
Starting point is 00:53:36 so far this earning the job in camp over bursette is a great chris howell did i you did shout out to chris howell one of our longest lifetime listeners makes an appearance sam howell it's better this year howell upside jacoby floor that provided value to mr amari cooper last year so your two options right now look a lot better than they did last year um i've got them ranked as a wide receiver, too, that you're getting in the eighth or ninth round. Yeah, and I can easily see the path. He has really been dominating in camp. And it seems like when we did our first rankings post-Ultimate DraftKits statting things out, my research showed me that I really believe there was going to be a consolidation of targets here.
Starting point is 00:54:26 It's why I like Terry McLaurin so much. And it's also why I like Jahan Dotson. Jahan Dotson is so much cheaper. You can get him late in your draft. That sometimes it makes me question whether I want to take Terry McLaurin. Who, you know, a lot of people said, well, he'd be my guy. But the better value is Dotson. And they're both extremely
Starting point is 00:54:45 talented they'll have a ton of targets a ton of value you guys just went back to back second year sophomore wide receivers so who do you got wide guys I'm going not so old as you old losers I'm rookie Jordan Addison Jordan Addison is a really good wide receiver that's the core of my case case club case closed um onto you Mike he's the 2021 Bolitnikoff award winner that's the best wide receiver in college football uh that was when he was playing with Kenny Pickett. Just absolute astounding route runner, polished, ready for the NFL. You know, when it comes to drafting young players for fantasy, you're looking for a trifecta. You want draft capital, you want talent, and you want opportunity. Well, the draft capital obviously is there. The Vikings took him 23rd overall, despite how desperately they need defensive players. They're like, this guy's too good.
Starting point is 00:55:50 They also desperately needed a wide receiver, if we're being honest. The talent, to me, is very similar to Devonta Smith. When you're just another Bulletin of Cough award winner, when you're just so good at route running, at setting up defenders, you've got great hands in this modern NFL, this, you know, pass happy timing, rhythm throwing, especially with a Kirk Cousins style of quarterback. It's he's perfect. He's perfect for this modern NFL. And one of the things that I actually kind of like, because I really liked him in my scouting process, is that the Vikings took him. Because the Vikings are the same ones that scouted Justin Jefferson. And they're like, yeah, that's the guy we want to target. They look for certain traits that are similar. And every single report about Addison,
Starting point is 00:56:47 I was reaching out to some of my Minnesota contacts as well. Every single report is he's outstanding. The only knock on him was that he drove really, really fast when he shouldn't have been in his car. Outside of that, the reports are glowing and awesome. Now let's look at the opportunity. Does he have the opportunity to step in? The Minnesota Vikings desperately needed to upgrade the corpse that was out there on the field last year. Oh, my gosh. Adam Thielen, who finished as the wide receiver 30.
Starting point is 00:57:19 It wasn't a terrible finish. He was. Can a corpse do that? Well, he was a lifeless vessel for cardio. And, you know, like Weekend at Bernie's type of stuff. He ran the second most routes
Starting point is 00:57:35 in the NFL last year, Adam Thielen did. In fact, he was tied for the third most routes run by a wide receiver over the last decade. He was out there on a pass happy offense. He saw 103 targets, meaning that he was only targeted on 15.2% of his routes, which is also known as dead last among players with a hundred plus targets, dead last in targets per route run, dead last in yards per route run. There is a huge opportunity here for a talented, young, ready-for-the-NFL player
Starting point is 00:58:11 to step into a role where you can have 100-plus targets. And I do want to say this. I don't expect Jordan Addison to hit the ground running. I don't even know that he will be in the Adam Thielen role come week one when you're drafting Jordan Addison he doesn't cost you much he's behind Jahan Dotson in ADP and you just talked about how nice that is you're grabbing a player who I think by week three will have earned that role the second half of the year we see this with rookie wide receivers like if he finishes as the wide receiver 30 this season, Jordan Addison,
Starting point is 00:58:47 it's going to be because the second half of the year, he's basically a top 20, top 15 type of wide receiver. It's funny. I have no recollection of this whatsoever, but somebody went on, I think it was YouTube or Twitter, and they were thanking us for the show, and they said, I followed Andy's advice and picked up Justin Jefferson off the waiver wire a few years ago. There was a two-week period of time in his entire career where that was a possibility that you could have done that. I didn't even remember that that could have been done.
Starting point is 00:59:15 But it was because Justin Jefferson took two weeks to get in there, and then he was Justin Jefferson. You mentioned that KJ Osborne is ahead of him in the depth chart momentarily. My only question about Addison is going to be touchdowns. It's going to, you know, because he's not 6'2", like Adam Thielen was. And you have Hawkinson and Jefferson that, look, if I'm Kirk Cousins, I'm looking at those guys around the red zone right now ahead of Jordan Addison. But the coverage that's going to be drawn away from Jordan Addison, it's going to put defenders in a Jordan Addison, it's going to
Starting point is 00:59:45 put defenders in a really, really tough spot where full PPR leagues, the offense without Dalvin Cook, let's not pretend. Alexander Madison is not going to do what Dalvin Cook could do in the passing game. Pump your brakes. Pump the brakes over there. He's not. He's just not. Let's take it easy. He's not that good. All right. Let's take it easy. He's not that good. All right. Let's take it easy. But, yeah, I mean, that's my only fear is that, you know, if Jordan Addison scores three times this year, would you be disappointed? Yeah, I think you'd be disappointed. Just for context here, since 2014,
Starting point is 01:00:17 wide receivers drafted in the first round that played at least 12 games, they averaged 5.6 touchdowns. They averaged 100 targets, 854 receiving yards. Basically, they average being the wide receiver 30 statistically around there. But again, it doesn't come over the course of the whole season. You get a more potent version of that player towards the end of the year, and it is worth holding on to those rookies over the last couple years. We just see it over and over and over where these rookie wide receivers are making big fantasy impacts at the end of the year, and it is worth holding on to those rookies over the last couple years. We just see it over and over and over where these rookie wide receivers
Starting point is 01:00:46 are making big fantasy impacts at the end of the year. There's also the chance that he does hit the ground running. Right, right. There's a chance that week one we're all going, oh, my gosh, like this guy was basically in the undrafted category or getting close to it in the 10th round, and then you're very happy. And things like concussion protocol and speeding tickets can drive a price down yeah all right mike you get to round out our final my guy of the show darren waller so no disrespect to my esteemed colleague over here
Starting point is 01:01:19 with his his mark andrews love because i i totally understand it, but Darren Waller has become my favorite pick at the tight end position. Mark Andrews, third rounder. Then you have Darren Waller right now on sleeper going at the back of the sixth round. The last two years for the Wallerists have been not great. He's had injury problems. He's only appeared in 20 games, but it's look at the situation. Now the New York giants gave up a third round pick to get Darren Waller. They weren't worried about the injuries. They weren't worried about the age. And then look at what else is going on for the New York giants. Who's the, who is the wide receiver one for the New York Giants? We did this experiment, I think, a couple weeks ago, and it was just there's so many names that it could be the wide receiver one
Starting point is 01:02:11 for that team. It might just be Darren Waller. And here's what we've seen for the tendencies for Daniel Jones. Since Daniel Jones was drafted in 2019, the Giants wide receivers have seen less than 60% of their targets every year. 59, 56, 57, and then last year, 51. That was 30th in the NFL. They're just not throwing it to the wide receivers because, again,
Starting point is 01:02:41 who is the number one wide receiver out there that just demands targets? I'm not saying that they're bad players out there, but you don't have a true number one. It's the go-to receiver mentality. It's the, I need a first down, I need a big play. There hasn't been a player that's kind of your go-to receiver in New York yet. Yeah, you don't have a player who goes in the huddle and as they're calling the play, it can be like,
Starting point is 01:03:06 no, you're throwing me the ball, and then your quarterback's like, oh, all right, you got it, Devontae Adams. This ball's coming to you, my friend. And I do need to give you breaking news, since this is apparently a stat we can acquire. Darren Waller blocked five times last year. So when you talk about drafting a wide receiver, wink, wink. These numbers are insane
Starting point is 01:03:26 but so it was pass blocking yes to be clear you did only have nine games yeah pass blocking but here's what's so important about that um wide receivers seeing less than 60 of the targets because that means going back to 2014 those teams have averaged a 24% target share for the tight end one position. How does that do? A 24% target share? Well, since 2015, we've seen 19 tight ends that have had a 24% target share, minimum 14 games played. All 19 of them finished in the top five.
Starting point is 01:04:01 Now, Darren Waller is being drafted right at that. That's a monumentally large sample size and it I mean it's Jordan Reed Walker Greg Olson of course Travis Kelsey Zach Ertz Mandrews is in there and then Darren Waller is in there a couple times because when he was with the Raiders he was he saw 24 percent he saw 28 percent of the targets the age is not a it's not a concern 31 years old it's look it's nothing for the tight end position we have a sensational article up by our own marvelous marvin where he talked about this the the life cycle of the dynasty tight end recommend going and checking
Starting point is 01:04:36 that out the fantasy footballers.com and then training camp again try not to get too hot and bothered by training camp quotes but the quotes for for Darren Waller have been unpreventable. Yeah, you can't avoid them. You at least want validation in camp that the player looks like the player they acquired. It could be going the other direction in terms of Waller's not heavily involved or the age is showing. So we referenced this tweet from Connor Hughes just the other day, but it appears the Giants have taken Darren Waller out, some say for a breather.
Starting point is 01:05:07 I think it's to force Daniel Jones to throw elsewhere. And then a quote from The Athletic. This is my eighth season covering the Giants. There are only three offensive players who simply moved different on the field that made teammates take notice. Odo Beckham, Saquon Barkley, and now add Darren Waller to that case or to that study. The beat reporters are madly in love.
Starting point is 01:05:29 It seems like Daniel Jones is madly in love. We saw rookie Daniel Bellinger make some splash plays here or there when that didn't seem like a player who should be put in that position. And the Giants said, yeah, we're going to upgrade that,
Starting point is 01:05:46 and we're going to make that a focal point of our offense. So Darren Waller going in the back of the sixth is someone to me that could – Oh, there we go. Goo-goo-ga-joo. I mean, people must have been not listening to a word you said saying, how in the world was that drop not smashed? I believe that Darren Waller can easily challenge Mark Andrews for the tight end two position by the end of the year.
Starting point is 01:06:09 At a discount. At a discount. Relative to him. It's like you've been saying discount Kelsey is Andrews. Discount Andrews is Waller. Discount Waller. We don't want to talk about that. Discount Waller is Tyler Higbee.
Starting point is 01:06:23 Okay. A ton of targets. Discount Her is Tyler Higbee. Okay. A ton of targets. Discount Higbee. Jake Ferguson. All right. That trickled down. We can stop it. Mike Evans, Jameer Gibbs, Jahan Dodson, my three, my guys, Jason went with.
Starting point is 01:06:36 Mark Andrews, Justin Fields, and Jordan Addison. And Mike rounded it out with Tyler Lockett, Chris Olave, and Darren Waller. Waller was certainly on my short list. When I was looking for that third guy, you know, throwing out some, like, quick names of players we were considering down the stretch, like Jason's Justin Herbert, you know, was in the short list, it was tough for me to decide between Jameer Gibbs, James Cook, and Joe Mixon.
Starting point is 01:07:03 All three of those players I was looking at closely, along with Debo and Ayuk, which we'll talk about later this offseason. Those are kind of some of the other guys that were in contention for me. Sure. I'll throw out my short list, of course, involved Alexander Madison, as I'm sure people at home are screaming for. Zay Flowers is very much on that short list for me. then I don't know if you've you have sensed my agitation over the offseason for J.K. Dobbins continuing to hold out be hurt whatever it is yeah you really believe and the my relief that he was finally back on the field this week but it was just I don't have enough yet from J.K. Davos to know that he's truly ready to go,
Starting point is 01:07:46 but he was on my short list. Yeah, I definitely wanted Justin Herbert. I wanted Chris Olave, but he was on your board forever. Yeah, he's been up there, I don't know, since like April. He's so good. And Terry McLaurin I love, but, you know. Wide receiver one. Yeah, the wide receiver one in fantasy football.
Starting point is 01:08:06 Well, that means you got Howlett one at quarterback, and you got McLaurin at one at wide receiver. That's right. Yeah. What could go wrong? Cole Turner, is he your tight end one? For sure. He's got Sam Howlett quarterback.
Starting point is 01:08:17 Okay, makes sense. Howell! All right, one final reminder. This is going to be your last chance to enter to win the ultimate draft kit for life along with a signed Derrick Henry jersey and a a t higgins autograph mini helmet we're going to pick three separate winners we're going to do it today all you have to do to enter is pick up the 2023 udk or udk plus by 6 30 p.m eastern today tune into the live stream and if you can't tune in guess what that's okay we're picking one of the people that have purchased this year and we'll
Starting point is 01:08:44 let you know we'll let you know. We'll email you. You can still win. I mean, we'll be a little bit disappointed in you. Yeah, that you're not there. You'll be disappointed. You'll be disappointed in yourself. Because you didn't get to hear it live and then rip your pants off
Starting point is 01:08:55 and dance around the house. I don't need these anymore. Or the office. Or the office. Yeah. We'll check with HR. UltimateDraftKid.com. And here, i don't want
Starting point is 01:09:05 to bury the lead here yes you could win a udk for life but also by getting the udk you get the you get the udk which um look i was doing some like back of the napkin math this morning for the amount of shows that we put out and the cost of the udk and it equated to like 1.9 cents per episode of what you'd be paying to get the UDK into your life, which will help you with your draft and support the podcast. For just 1.9 cents? Yeah. And that math was, again, back in the- We'll call it two.
Starting point is 01:09:38 We'll call it two cents. It could be wrong. It could be completely wrong. Which we are giving- I think it might be wrong. We're giving you our two cents in the UDK. Nice. Hope you enjoyed the My Guys episode.
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