Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - THE MEGALASHOW! Bold Predictions LIVE in LA - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/26

Episode Date: August 26, 2024

Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season! It’s our 10th Anniversary MEGALASHOW! Andy, Mike, and Jason give spicy hot takes, Live at the Palace Theatre in LA! Plus, player to TV show com...ps, Live Mailbag, and many fun surprises! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for August 26th, 2024. Get the 2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT and Draft Analyzer at UltimateDraftKit.com Compete in the largest fantasy football league! Megalabowl.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Check out today's sponsors: Ready to Roll presented by Nissan. Visit https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/crossovers-suvs/pathfinder/rock-creek-edition.html News & Notes presented by USAA. Visit https://USAA.com/Insurance Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,
Starting point is 00:00:19 including a new chance to win cash every minute in the app. Get into the game with Monopoly Double Play at McDonald's. While supplies last, one in five chances to win game piece prizes at outset, chances to win Double Play prizes based on time of code entry, and draw prizes based on number of entries in each draw. See rules in the app. Get a credit card annual fee waiver and earn C-plus points faster with the Scotiabank Ultimate Package and bank more entertainment. Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages. Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
Starting point is 00:01:20 Welcome in! Yeah, baby! Yes! Yes! Welcome in. Yeah, baby. Yes. Yes. I think they forgot the welcome in part. That's okay. Welcome in to the 10th anniversary Megalith Show live in Los Angeles. We rowdy tonight.
Starting point is 00:01:42 We are. And shout out to Sleeper for sponsoring this event, Pristine Auction. We're so excited. We got a bold predictions episode on the show today, but a whole lot more. We got news to talk about, some controversial news. So we'll talk about that. We've got – We do?
Starting point is 00:01:58 I am unaware of this news. Well, I guess I missed the news. We'll find out. All right. And how many out there with the UDK? Yeah, that's our people. That's good. That's good.
Starting point is 00:02:11 And you can get the UDK, ultimatedraftkit.com. A reminder, a portion of every UDK goes to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. We've donated in 10 years over $250,000 to St. Jude, and that was because of you guys. And us winning fantasy leagues. Come on. That doesn't hurt. Give us some credit.
Starting point is 00:02:33 And we have something fun. We like to do this for the live shows. We have a quick question today. And we've had a lot of fun with these over the years. But today, we're going to compare a player to a television show and mike is going to kick it off i am travis kelsey you may have heard of him wait people don't like this you said it's rowdy do you play fantasy football? You should be cheering. Oh, take it easy out there. Take it easy.
Starting point is 00:03:11 Don't make us send the Sharks after you. We'll bring them back out. I appreciate the hometown love, but you're telling me you didn't like Travis Kelsey on your team. You're a bunch of big fat liars. All right. All right. Only Antonio Gates for that guy. All right. Here we go.
Starting point is 00:03:23 Travis Kelsey, look, he's given us some of the best fantasy seasons of all time. His peak seasons will go down in history. I'm not sure there's any tight end coming in the future that will ever match what he has done. The run is probably the longest we will ever see, and that's why Travis Kelsey is... It's the Simpsons baby look and because here's the thing about the Simpsons we're coming to the end and that's okay it's okay look he may not be the difference maker
Starting point is 00:03:59 that he once was see the Simpsons yeah but it's like when the simpsons are on i'm still gonna watch it i'm still gonna enjoy it when we're you know what we're always gonna remember the lamin of troy aka travis kelsey 2018 oh marge versus the monorail kelsey 2020 look the show isn't what it once was but if you put the new ones on, you're still going to watch it and you're still going to have a good time. So that's why I try to discuss it. Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:04:33 What does it mean, though? What does it mean, though, if like, I don't really watch Simpsons. You're like, if you put the Simpsons on, I'm like, I'm going to walk out of the room. I don't really care. Hold on. Eat my shorts.
Starting point is 00:04:46 Hold on. The 90s? Hold on. Hold on. Yes, feed me. You're going to sit in front of a crowd of 1,000 people and say you don't watch The Simpsons? Yeah, I don't. I'm not saying I don't think The Simpsons is an all-time great show.
Starting point is 00:05:00 I just don't watch it anymore. Do you guys actually actively watch The Simpsons? Yeah, is there a saying? So did you take it as, like, bench Kelsey? No. No, I get it. I get what you're saying. He's an all-timer.
Starting point is 00:05:12 He's not at the top. But I just take umbrage with, like, I'm still going to watch The Simpsons if it's on because it's not true. And I'm a man of truth. That's great. I can't wait for you to go so I can take a dump on everything you just say. Yeah, try it. Yeah, go ahead. Go ahead.
Starting point is 00:05:28 Well, he's going last. Oh, okay. I'm jumping in. We're going to talk about Alvin Kamara, and it's a weird story. That is the correct response. Yeah, no, that is exactly what I wanted to hear because, get this, Alvin Kamara, he is Downton Abbey all right now just stay with me on this for a second and enjoy that picture of Derek Carr um
Starting point is 00:05:58 because he doesn't seem like something you should like in fantasy. The side characters are a bit much. I'm not here for a history lesson, right? I don't want to remember the magnificent past of Alvin Kamara. That doesn't help me in fantasy. And it seems like he's so boring to roster because he's going to be so boring to roster. Nobody takes him in the draft with a lot of joy. But you're going to watch and you're going to give it a try
Starting point is 00:06:37 and you're going to like it this year because this was a player who was so boring that he still ended up the number two fantasy running back from weeks four to 15 when he came back i can feel the crowd they're like do i admit that i like downton abbey this is my message i can't tell people that there's only two two types of people in the world there are people who have seen downton Abbey and they know it's great. And people that haven't yet seen it and they go, that looks so boring because it looks so boring. But what I'm saying is embrace that boring, embrace the history lesson and just don't tell your friends you drafted him.
Starting point is 00:07:17 Right. Just like you don't tell them you watch Downton Abbey. Yeah. Downton Abbey is full PPR. That is like Downton Abbey is 100% like point per reception. It's more valuable than you think it should be. For sure. All right.
Starting point is 00:07:30 I'm up. Yeah, yeah. Mike's ready. Yeah. You ready to – Oh, you will boo this one because once you understand it, maybe not right off the bat, but Justin Jefferson is The Office. Yeah, baby.
Starting point is 00:07:50 Justin Jefferson is one of the best ever. He is awesome. The Office is fantastic. I think it might be my favorite comedy show of all time. But there's bad news for a clan when michael scott left yeah what happened it wasn't the same it wasn't as good and and captain kirk is leaving and i'm telling you right now i know look at that i know justin jeff Jefferson is great. Obviously. It will be bold takes later.
Starting point is 00:08:28 He's great. But he's not going to be great for fantasy in the middle of the first round without a quarterback the same way that the greatest comedy show of all time was not as good. It wasn't bad. But no one out here is like, oh, dude, I think the season's without Michael Scott were the best. No, that's why it got canceled. What about the Lizard King?
Starting point is 00:08:52 There are a lot of Justin Jefferson dynasty managers out there that were very sad a minute ago. Yeah, well, they're sad. They're going to be sad this year, too, because you got Sam Darnold. And at least you had a bright spot in J.J. McCarthy. And that stinks that he's gone. You're not a a big Sam fan I'm not a big Sam fan the more that I've dug into the numbers and seeing his touchdown rates over his career it's putrid and that's where like Justin Jefferson's gonna be fine between the 20s it's gonna have a lot of yards he's going to be I'm not saying he's like the wide receiver 40 but he can't return on middle
Starting point is 00:09:26 of the first round value it's almost impossible unless you're up at you know 9 10 11 touchdowns and Sam Darnold's not doing that Sam Darnold is not a good quarterback here's look no no Sam Darnold has played oh no mark of the beast Okay, he's played 66 games over six seasons. Mark of the Beast. This can't be your thing, man. My thing is the Mark of the Beast. I'm the Mark of the Beast guy. Tell me another podcast that references the Mark of the Beast.
Starting point is 00:09:59 It's me. So Warren Sharp points this on on qualified completion rates um sam donald's completion rate on his career is 59.7 percent his career his career that ranks 47th out of 48 qualified quarterbacks kirk cousins is number four of 48. That's going to change things, people. Why are we still drafting Justin Jefferson ahead of A.J. Brown and other guys who have good quarterbacks? It's not saying that he's bad to use logic and be smart. Now, see, Mike, you don't have to dump on his take
Starting point is 00:10:37 because his take is kind of like a dump in and of itself. Yeah, it is negative. It is negative. I apologize. I know. And honestly, look, I was looking at the show doc today. I'm like, man, I am a hateful dude. My bold predictions are really negative.
Starting point is 00:10:53 We brought them here to disappoint them. I want more positivity in the show. I got you. But I want, I think, Andy, why don't you talk about how much you love Kyle Pitts? Make it positive. Why don't you bring Kyle Pitts up? You love him. Well, no, hold on.
Starting point is 00:11:10 Hold on. Wait a minute. Hold on. Because I seem to remember. I've got a golden ticket. I've got a golden ticket. Yeah! You know how long I've been saving on to this for this show, baby?
Starting point is 00:11:39 I know. Yeah. I love Kyle Pitts. Yes, you do. Let me tell you how much you do, Andy. Why don't you? Oh, no. Why don't you read the people what you think about Kyle Pitts?
Starting point is 00:11:53 This is a novel. Andy has no idea that this is happening right now. Yeah. We knew he was in the dark, baby. I wondered what was happening when you brought the name up. Yeah. I was ready to move on. Let's listen to...
Starting point is 00:12:06 Oh my goodness. It's basically another take swap. Golden ticket version. Let's go. It is the golden ticket, so I guess I have no choice. I'm glad everyone's here. It's time to come clean about something that has been bugging me for quite a while. I love Kyle Pitts, and I want the world to know it. Nice. Oh, okay.
Starting point is 00:12:29 Because Kyle Pitts is Parks and Rec. Come on. You gotta be kidding. How did you pull this up? All right. I refuse to watch Parks and Rec forever. Everyone said it was great and I was snooty. That's true. I refuse to watch Parks and Rec forever. Everyone said it was great, and I was snooty. That's true.
Starting point is 00:12:48 I was slow to listen. I said, nah. I said, I'm too cool for that. Yeah, you really did. And then one day I came to the realization that maybe, just maybe, I was missing out on something great. So I watched. And the beginning of that show sucked.
Starting point is 00:13:02 It did? Yeah, first season was pretty rough. Season one was not funny. It was like they had a bad director, like Arthur Smith was in charge. Oh, what a good cop, Andy. Yeah, this is good thoughts of mine. But after season one, they cut some characters, reshaped others, and it literally turned into one of, if not the best, comedy show of all time.
Starting point is 00:13:22 Oh. And that's what I think is going to happen with kyle pitt really i really think that a slow start with a bad cast of characters and then you exit arthur smith exit left and desmond ritter goodbye and enter the rams offense and kirk cousins kyle pitts will finish his career as one of the all-time greatest ever to play. Wow. That's bold, man. Because Pitts is not even 24 years old,
Starting point is 00:13:53 and Travis Kelsey caught his first pass in the NFL when he was 24. I'm glad I thought of that. Kelsey had his first 1,000-yard season at age 27. Yeah. Pitts did that at age 21. Whoa. Clearly better. It's a big difference.
Starting point is 00:14:10 Buckle up. Please keep going. Do not turn off your TV. Kyle Pitts will break out this year like season two of Parks and Rec. He is the steal of the draft, and you heard it from me, Andy Holloway. Yeah, there we go. Yeah, that's great. That's big of you.
Starting point is 00:14:29 I'm not sure why you. Oh, the crowd loves it. Yeah, Andy. Yeah. Does that mean that golden ticket is gone? Yeah, tear that thing up. Woo! Tear it up.
Starting point is 00:14:38 Tear it up. Krip. Why did you tell people. I can't believe you pulled that off Why'd you tell people to don't turn off your TVs Well like that's what you do when you're done with a show And then he's saying turn it back on Some people stopped watching Parks and Rec
Starting point is 00:14:53 After one season Yeah but we're a podcast Well it was more about watching Parks and Rec Okay I'm just saying it was a bad reference Have another drink Mike We're ready to roll. We're ready to roll. Welcome to Ready to Roll, presented by Nissan. You got animations I didn't know about.
Starting point is 00:15:22 Mm-hmm. Yeah, pictures and scripts, and you broke it out and you broke it out. At the live show. Time for some ready to roll. I thought this would be very interesting. We have looked at some very eye-opening stats, stuff to get you ready to go for the season. We looked at
Starting point is 00:15:40 juicy opening schedules. This is literally ready to roll. We look at those that are going to... you talk about jared golf all the time how the start of the season yeah it's it's really good but we also know that there's turnover on the defensive side so sometimes bad defenses become better and vice versa so we wanted to look at every position and whether there were some players and this is just going to be fascinating are there players that just start hot independent of the schedule year after year like they're just they're hot starters the opposite of derrick henry and
Starting point is 00:16:19 naji harris who finished strong and james connor. So I'll start. We've got two quarterbacks that have been hot starters. I brought one up frequently. He goes late in drafts, but Tua. Tua Tungavailoa. You had – those are like late-season booers because you can't be a first part of the season booer. There's not a name I can say. Seriously, we're hot tonight.
Starting point is 00:16:45 But Tua, if you remember two years ago, that 40-point-plus – there's not a name I can say seriously. We're hot tonight. Yeah. But to, uh, if you remember two years ago, that 40 point plus S you know, the six touchdown game started as the quarterback seven through the first 10 weeks of the season. And then last year he was the quarterback one in week one. He was the quarterback five through the first eight weeks.
Starting point is 00:17:00 And then I traded him to Mike and then, yeah, I cooled him off and then he cooled him off so say grab an icy dude and then another player that's not being talked about because of the injury and because I think people are hesitant but Kirk Cousins oh you love him he's gonna be one of the greatest of all time yeah because of pits um but over the last three years he's averaged over 20 fantasy points per game through the first half of the season. And we even forget how good he was before the injury last
Starting point is 00:17:30 year. He was a quarterback six in fantasy. He has my favorite player, Kyle pits. He's got B John. He's got Drake London. You talked about Darnell Mooney is like a late value. So those are two hot starters at the quarterback position that we've seen for multiple years. Sure. And that wide receiver Tyreereek Hill, I mean, it makes sense because Tua has been such a hot starter. But over the last two years, he's averaging over 120 receiving yards per game. Like, that is an outrageous pace. I think that people forget how fast Miami is every start of the year.
Starting point is 00:18:03 Yeah. Like, they think, okay, you know, they can't be that fast. I mean, it makes sense. I mean, you're in Florida, right? When the cold weather comes in, you just don't know what to do. You're used to the heat. And then Stephon Diggs, we all remember last year. Yeah, this one's interesting.
Starting point is 00:18:17 This one is pretty fascinating. Weeks one through nine, almost 18 points per game, wide receiver three in that span. Last year. Wide receiver 10 or a week 10 on just absolutely terrible and this has actually been something that that he has done to us it was really magnified this past year but stefan diggs has been a hot starter and not not not as hot at the end yeah 16 fantasy points per game in september 15 in october 13
Starting point is 00:18:43 in november 11 in December. Yeah. For whatever reason, he has slowed down over the course of the season. So I don't know what's going to happen in Houston. He feels like one of those players that we're not drafting a lot of, but I still think we acknowledge that that could be a situation where they do find a lot of fantasy value early. He could definitely get off to a hot start. Another guy that I'm not drafting much of, but when we're looking at this data where i saw man i'm like am i gonna get you don't want to draft i don't want to draft him but i'm starting to think i'm wrong here and the data
Starting point is 00:19:13 says it and what's going on around the team says it's josh jacobs the running back for the green bay packers he has yeah i mean okay people are in people are in so here's here's the data in 2021 he had over 13 fantasy points per game he was the only running back not to bust in the first half the first half no bust games obviously he was great that year but i don't think we realized last season he was actually the running back seven in the first half before you know it didn't feel like last year as a whole didn't feel good yeah well 20 2022 rb7 the first half last year rb5 in the first half before you know it didn't feel like last year as a whole didn't feel good yeah well 20 2022 rb7 the first half last year rb5 in the first half before the wheels fell off and so you're going like okay are the wheels gone is is he on blocks you know is he is he a car raised up
Starting point is 00:19:59 and he's just keep him going he's done or he's been stolen does he just start fast and you know when you start fast right now report came out today that both AJ Dillon and Marshawn Lloyd are questionable for week one with the hot starter of Josh Jacobs was like okay goodness gracious is is he gonna work so now I'm I haven't done my main drafts yet and I'm moving Josh Jacobs up and I'm going all right maybe there are some players you don't draft to trade. You don't draft them only to trade them. But you go, like these players, I know that they can start hot and have the wheels fall off, so maybe midway through the season I'll trade them.
Starting point is 00:20:36 We'll talk about one of those guys later. And a tight end, I just want to remind you guys, Mark Andrews has been a model of consistency. What? What's that? Yeah. Did you reboot halfway through the sentence? Was that a bit?
Starting point is 00:20:52 Powering down. That's just how I say consistent. See. All right. In 2021, he was the tight end two. I don't know. Through the first six games. In 2022, he was the tight end two. I don't know. Through the first six games. In 2022, he was the tight end two through the first six games.
Starting point is 00:21:08 In 2023, he was the tight end two through the first six games. So he's pretty good. And trade him before he gets injured is basically it. But he's a hot starter. And, you know, I think right now I'm scooping him up in the fifth round sometimes. That's an amazing value. And you can't draft guys to trade them unless they do well. You don't trade between your draft and kickoff very often.
Starting point is 00:21:32 So it's like you want guys that start hot. I think Mark Andrews is a great pick for that. Yeah, no, it makes sense. And I was a little disappointed you didn't take him in our last mock draft because I didn't know if you were starting to fade, but I guess you're not. You're very consistent. See. About him.
Starting point is 00:21:49 Yeah. All right. That was Ready to Roll, presented, as always, by Nissan. Find your path in the 2024 Nissan Pathfinder Rock Creek. Whether that's rocky trails or snowy roads, there's plenty of places to show off this SUV. Learn more at NissanUSA.com. Intelligent four-wheel drive cannot prevent collisions or provide enhanced traction in all conditions.
Starting point is 00:22:10 Always monitor traffic and weather conditions. Yeah. Let's get into the news. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. All right, we do have some fun stuff to talk about. Maybe not fun. Maybe we should have gotten you a deck of cards, Mike.
Starting point is 00:22:36 But Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. Michael. Michael. He said he's not going to name a starter at quarterback Michael until the end of the work week the work week wait is that a true is that what it says Michael what is the work week for them is that Friday I mean here's here's the thing guys book it week one Steelers slaughter their opponents because they have no idea who this they have no clue that Russell Wilson's about to be the starting quarterback for the Steelers Mr. Tomlin what are you doing
Starting point is 00:23:10 this is an embarrassment you don't question Mr. Tomlin I do I do not he has what is this like 17 years in a row of him being over five he's he's one of the best coaches in the league i think that this says something yeah i mean i i mean i i watched his interviews this week before this quote came out and he was still saying like nothing has changed with the order of my quarterbacks now he's saying in the work week is there is there any chance it's not russell? No. Yeah, okay. That's why this is dumb. All right, I see that point. This is budget magician material. Yeah. Now, Matt Nagy's like, oh, man, Tom was about to crush.
Starting point is 00:23:55 There was a point. What an advantage. This offseason where it seemed like they stole Russell Wilson and they stole Justin Fields and that they were going to fix situation at quarterback. How do you feel about that now? I think they're going to play good defense and try to run the ball so it brings up points about George Pickens too because what's the latest on Brandon Ayuk nothing anybody know yeah anybody in California here with insight y'all Y'all live here. What's going on? I believe the last report we saw was an active report of there's nothing to report.
Starting point is 00:24:30 That's not a joke. They were reporting nothing to report. And we're drafting now. This is like the biggest draft weekend of the year. Who's drafted their league of record? Okay. Is there anybody drafting right now during the show yeah we got a handful yeah you got a handful and a couple of liars they said yes
Starting point is 00:24:52 but they don't have phones out no liars all right um but but this was fun in games when it was like oh we'll just wait to see what happens and then we'll figure out debo and we'll figure out kittle and then on the other side, I love George Pickens. If he's the guy in Pittsburgh, what do you do now if you're actively in a draft and at any moment, because the report that nothing's happening also said the trade's still on the table. Like the 49ers, if they can't work a deal out, they can just click the accept button, basically. So what do you do with Pickens?
Starting point is 00:25:22 My honest opinion is find your stance. Don't sit on the fence because when you sit on the fence, you know what goes right in the crotch? You don't want that. The fence. You ever done that? I think they get it. It's not good.
Starting point is 00:25:36 Especially don't sit on the pole. You want to go to the whole wide part. Yeah, I got it. I got it. Yeah, thanks. Pick your stance how it's going to end up one way or the other to me it's iuke plays for the 49ers and that's how i am drafting so wait wait i want to i want to challenge that for a minute okay because you're
Starting point is 00:25:56 drafting that way i i presume you think it is worse for him fantasy-wise if he changes right if you go to the steel if he goes to the Steelers I do okay so right now he is going uh on sleeper at the 302 he's going he's going like I love I love Brandon Ayuk I I legitimately in my heart watching him play I think that he is a you're a believer a top tier player who deserves the contract that is that I think he will sign and if he goes to somewhere like Pittsburgh over time he will become a true elite fantasy football player but at this point if you're switching right now that's rough like it it's brutal for this season so and I thought he was being overdrafted as a 49er I think he will be a top 20 guy easy and he'll give you spike weeks but I
Starting point is 00:26:43 think like he's being drafted above Debo he is he is he is wide receiver 13 Debo is wide receiver 14 and as much as I believe in Brandon Ayuk I wouldn't do that right I wouldn't either the the entire round other than Stefan Diggs in the third I would not draft any of those guys over Brandon Ayuk as of today which is Mike Evans Nico Collins Jalen Waddle like I would rather have those guys over Brandon Ayuk, as of today, which is Mike Evans, Nico Collins, Jalen Waddell. Like, I would rather have those guys over Brandon Ayuk with the unknown of, we don't know where he's playing football. Does the situation change how you view Kittle? So, it is a little bit of the flip, right?
Starting point is 00:27:16 Debo Samuel, I think, is right now being drafted at a good spot if Brandon Ayuk shows up. Kittle is being drafted at a good spot if Ayuk is on the roster if he leaves there is built-in value that that is is already there so I'm I'm in love with those two picks right now in fantasy because if Brandon Ayuk resigns and he's there week one I I don't think I made a mistake and if he gets traded I've got incredible value all right and then uh one one more piece of information here the preseason week three, there've been some games played and normally we wouldn't report on this player. Oh, Jason, that was a full spin take. Were you remembering? I literally spit on my laptop.
Starting point is 00:27:57 I just remembered what happened today. So it was awesome. It was awesome. Trey Lance. It was awesome. It was awesome. Trey Lance. Trey Lance Hive. Played a full game. Yeah, he did. Do you got some numbers for me? I do. Okay, let's see how we did. Trey Lance, 323 yards, a passing touchdown, 11 for 90 on the ground with a 46-yard rushing touchdown.
Starting point is 00:28:20 This is exactly what the Trey Lance Hive has signed up for. Those are elite fantasy numbers. I do have one more. Five interceptions. Five interceptions. And two fumbles in one game. Well, in the preseason, against preseason the whole game, meaning against backups.
Starting point is 00:28:42 How do you throw five interceptions against backups? Those guys are spicy, man. They're playing for a job. What happened, man? 11 for 90 on the ground. What happened is... It's over. It's over, everybody.
Starting point is 00:28:56 He's not good. All right. That was today's News and Notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Are you guys ready for some bold predictions? Let's do it. Ridiculously bold predictions. All right.
Starting point is 00:29:23 I'm scanning the audience here because I wanted to make sure that this guy's... No one's wearing his jersey in the first few rows because I'm not sure you're going to like what I'm going to say here, but... Brace yourselves. No, he loves Kyle Pitts. I know. Clearly, I love Kyle Pitts.
Starting point is 00:29:43 Yeah. He's the best. I'm surprised you didn't get me a jersey to wear the rest of the Pitts. I know. Clearly, I love Kyle Pitts. Yeah. He's the best. I'm surprised you didn't get me a jersey to wear the rest of the show. I should have. Here's bold prediction number one for me. And I'm not excited to say this. I just believe it. Anthony Richardson is not going to be a top-ten quarterback in 2024.
Starting point is 00:30:05 I think it's mixed. I think, I think it's mixed. I think it's mixed out there. And I am, I'm sorry, but this is not happening this year. And he is being, he,
Starting point is 00:30:14 he is unproven, inaccurate and overdrafted. And in fantasy, this might work out at some point in time. I think it probably will. Like, I'm not stupid. Trey Lance any day, baby. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:30:29 Any day. This has a lot of Trey Lance vibes. But here's the problem is that last year he was a rookie in Indianapolis, and he was the 108th player off the board in fantasy. Tenth round. This year, after two games played, which they lost. Two full games. Two full games, two injuries, and two losses in the full games that he played, by the way.
Starting point is 00:30:51 He's now the 52nd player off the board. So two games, five rounds. Yeah, we like what we saw. For Anthony Richardson. People, yeah, I mean, that is true. People are, they're excited about the potential. But here's what blew my mind. He has started 17 total games since high school.
Starting point is 00:31:11 No. That is not true. Double check your work. Double check your work. It's confirmed. Whoa, that was quick. AI is good. No, do not check AI for fantasy takes.
Starting point is 00:31:28 It says stuff that's just factually wrong nonstop. 477 total passes he's thrown since 2019 as a quarterback. So when you talk about inexperienced, like Trey Lance could teach him a thing or two is what I'm saying and then and then I'm telling you he's also historically inaccurate like in college he was a 54 percent passer that's bad you take away over half man you take away the screen game this blew my mind you take away just screen passes he's under 50 percent oh that's under half, man. You take away the screen game. This blew my mind. You take away just screen passes. He's under 50%.
Starting point is 00:32:06 Oh, that's under half, Mike. Crap. Yeah. I have no rebuttals. Last year, there wasn't a top 10 fantasy quarterback under 64%. Okay? And over the last, like, five years, the lowest was 60%. Now it was Jalen Hurts, and you're hoping for that season out of him.
Starting point is 00:32:25 But their schedule is rough. They're favored in four of their first 13 games. So, rusty Anthony Richardson, who didn't get to play, who's basically like a rookie with an asterisk there, a sophomore with an asterisk. Who's also looked like trash in preseason. You take it easy. He's looked really, really bad.
Starting point is 00:32:43 And now you have to spend a fifth-round pick for him. So Tank Dell, goodbye. You don't get Tank Dell. Yes, I do. George Kittle, see you. Goodbye. T. Higgins, nope, not on my team because I took Anthony Richardson. And so he has to take that big leap forward.
Starting point is 00:32:57 And I think the ride is going to be – there's going to be games when you're like, oh, my gosh. Like, he has everything. He's going to run and he's going to get into the end zone just like he did in a couple of those games last year. But I think you're seeing it with where Michael Pittman's being drafted. I think there are doubts about the accuracy. So you know how many games that – so he has 17 games played since high school.
Starting point is 00:33:20 Sure. You know how many games Jaden Daniels has? 18. 55! 55! 55! We don't make it up, people. 55 games played. He is five rounds later.
Starting point is 00:33:34 He is a prolific runner. He has the same opportunity, I think, as Richardson because they're both basically rookies. To me, this is the most overdrafted player in fantasy. I'm sorry, but that's my bold prediction. I actually like it. I'm saying no. I,
Starting point is 00:33:51 I hate that. Things are going great for me this year. My bold prediction was all booze last year. It was. Yeah. To Ruth out. I'm done. To Ruth out. I'm done.
Starting point is 00:34:06 I'm leaving. All right. I'll do your second one. Yeah. All right. All right, Mike. It is, like, it. Does it give you pause?
Starting point is 00:34:18 It's unfortunately statistically compelling. But, I mean, as you learned on the show the other week, I don't care about stats. Right. You're high-t. Very high-t. But he runs enough. Maybe you'll be in. It's all about feel. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:34:30 Fire in your gut. All right. I have a savior for your running back room, everybody. Oh, do you now? I've been talking about him all offseason. My faith has not trembled one bit. No, Joe Mixon. The guesses are coming.
Starting point is 00:34:47 No, no, no, no, no. This man is being drafted as the RB45. He is suave. He will save your teams. Mr. Rico Dowdle. That's quite the introduction. Rico Dowdle. I don't think they like it.
Starting point is 00:35:09 Rico Suave. I don't care. You know what hurts the most, Jason? The truth. Rico Dowdle finishes this season as a top 20 running back despite being drafted in the double-digit rounds. And here is why. He has a massive opportunity coming up for the Dallas backfield.
Starting point is 00:35:29 He's only 26. He has the size, the frame, 5'11", 213. I like it. Look, I wish it was 215, but I'll accept it. Just eat a burger. That's what I'm saying. Right before game day? Yeah, just drink a gallon of water.
Starting point is 00:35:46 Hydrate up. Look, he can handle the workload. In college, he was a true three-down guy. Last year, he was explosive. Dowdle, last year, per-player profiler, ninth. Ninth among running backs in yards created per touch. Last year, despite the lack of snaps, Dowdle had four games of double digit fantasy points that's the tame the same as Tajay Spears who people seem infatuated with
Starting point is 00:36:13 on a crappy offense like Tajay Spears look that is their voice last year well that's the Tennessee voice that's the accent I think I nailed it yeah last year 50% of the Dallas drives resulted in a score they were averaging 30 points per game Tony Pollard is vacating 16 carries inside the five and despite uh the wisdom of Jerry Jones saying hey we're all in I I mean, those are words. Those are not actions. He meant the grave. Those are not actions of Jerry Jones.
Starting point is 00:36:52 His big action of all in was I'm going to bring in 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott, who may as well be 39 years old at this point because he's carried the ball over 2,000 times. His yards per carry. 2,000? His yards per carry. 2,000? His yards per carry the last three years. 4.2, 3.8, 3.5. Do you see where this is going?
Starting point is 00:37:13 It's going in a negative direction. Look, it is an ambiguous backfield. In preseason, Rico Dowdle was the guy. You know, first six snaps with the the starters and then he was put on ice because they believe in Rico Dowdle all reports out of Dallas training camp Dowdle is the player who has the most juice at the running back position the athletic he has to be the favorite to lead the team in rushing I shared the stat in the 10 tips and tricks of over the last five years, eight and a half teams per year, they don't have a top 24 running back drafted. And yet on average,
Starting point is 00:37:52 we see five running backs from those teams break into the top 24. And I think that is Rico Dowdle who will lead the Dallas Cowboys in rushing and Ezekiel Elliott it's done man it is absolutely over I don't care how much power his name carries when they start playing football and they can't move the ball just like last year eventually they're like this isn't working go to Dak go to Seedy and it will work with Rico Dowdle who will finish as a top 20 guy and he will save your running back room but oh goodness gracious but but but mike voice of public opinion yeah yeah yeah um how come last year they went away from pollard and he finished as the running back 50 doubt all did that was last year your voice is struggling i don't know i over screamed in the intro look over the last five years a top 20
Starting point is 00:38:48 running back they averaged 900 yards and nine rushing touchdowns zeke just a couple years ago when he was still not great and he was 27 he was still a top 20 back when he was averaging 3.8 yards per carry you give rico dowdle more work more work inside the five which I think that they will do. Fookland find find somebody that loves you like Mike loves Rico Dowdle. Oh man excuse me we're here to help you excuse me Rico Suave put some respect on his name okay all right that's fair we could call him Rico Suave but I think I think what I think you're you're you're you know you you talk about you're correct the statistics making sense for Andy and I think you're, you know, you talk about the statistics making sense for Andy, and I think the statistics do actually make sense for Ezekiel Elliott here to finish as a top 20 back.
Starting point is 00:39:32 Oh, no. Go ahead. Go ahead. Waste your picks on Zeke. I dare you. I think we've got to have a Zeke v. Rico Suave water bet. We've got to do it. Water bet. Easy Suave water bet. We got to do it. Water bet.
Starting point is 00:39:47 Easy money. All right. All right, Jason. All right, all right. Let's have my first bold prediction that I think the entire world is behind. Yes, yes. Foot clan, prepare yourself. Dennis Allen, the head coach of the New orleans saints will be fired after week five
Starting point is 00:40:08 the biggest cheer of the night freedom you don't like that guy this dude uh sucks This dude sucks. Okay, look, it's fun in fantasy. We've had a long lineage of head coaching villains, right? Oh, yeah. We used to love dunking on. Oh, yeah. Adam Gase, number two. Jeff Fisher.
Starting point is 00:40:41 Yeah. Last year was Arthur Smith. This year, it's Dennis Allen, the short-term head coach of the New Orleans Saints. He is maybe the worst coach I've ever seen, but also Dennis Allen is so unlikable I can't believe it. This dude sucks. His persona is that he's high and mighty and that he is the brightest shining star, and instead he is the biggest whining excuse maker I've ever seen at head coach. This dude sucks.
Starting point is 00:41:14 Hold on. I feel like 75% of your argument so far is this dude sucks. It should be 90%. My guy will work on that. We joked about a month ago on the footcast, I think it was, that Dennis Allen is clearly he's driving a Vette. He's got a Corvette, right? Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:41:31 He's one of those guys driving around his Vette. I looked into it. We were wrong. He drives a bus, and he drives it over his players, and he drives it over his coaching staff. Okay, every single time he is at the podium, all he does is blame everyone else. Beep, beep.
Starting point is 00:41:49 Beep, beep. You suck. Beep, beep. My teammate, my player, you suck. Unless you're Taysom Hill. Oh, yeah, he loves Taysom Hill. In love with Taysom Hill. Oh, my gosh.
Starting point is 00:42:00 But, like, if you look at the offensive coordinator from last year. Oh, wait, no, he got fired. But the defensive coordinator also got fired. Not Dennis Allen's fault. Not his, the coordinator's. Okay, so here it is. Look, I'm saying he gets fired after five weeks. Here's why.
Starting point is 00:42:15 I've got a three-tiered process. Tier one, his coaching sucks. Tier two, his personality sucks. Okay, all right, we're up to tier three his schedule sucks all right okay let's talk about tier one he's not a good football coach uh he was you might not remember this and he will be so grateful if you don't he was the Raiders head coach for three years back in 2012 uh he went 4-12 year one. We're building.
Starting point is 00:42:47 We're building. Yeah, we're building. He didn't get fired. Next year's going to be great. Despite going 4-12, didn't get fired. Came back another year. He went 4-12 year two. Consistent. And obviously got fired.
Starting point is 00:42:56 No, he didn't get fired. Instead, he went 0-4 to start the next year. Finally got fired. You know who his quarterback was then? This is wild wild Derek Carr his current quarterback he locked into getting the Saints head coaching job he didn't like win the gig Sean Payton left this franchise where in a in a tissy and like it was like hey you he's the head coach okay so now what has he? He's been sub 500 with a great defense and good talent.
Starting point is 00:43:29 He has the lowest winning percentage of all 32 head coaches in the NFL. He's won 34% of his games as a head coach. After going 9-8 last year, which is his greatest accomplishment of all time, also he did have the league's easiest strength of schedule. Saints fans were literally raising money online to put up fire Dennis Allen billboards in New Orleans.
Starting point is 00:43:53 He's that likable? He's that likable. They tied for the second best turnover margin at 11, and yet he had just one win against the playoff team. He's just a bad coach. That's tier one. Yeah, thatoff team. He's just a bad coach. That's tier one. Yeah, that's tier one. Nobody has a bad coach. Dude, I can't stand this guy.
Starting point is 00:44:10 Have you filed legal documents? If it's not clear, I can't stand this guy because – I think it's clear. I watch how he talks about – I would hate being a player for a coach like that. You look at how players rally around. Yeah. Jamis got out.
Starting point is 00:44:26 Yeah. We'll talk about that in a second. Okay. Number two, his personality sucks. Every interview, he looks like a stressed and disappointed uncle, not a dad,
Starting point is 00:44:37 an uncle. He's like, you have no respect here. Why are you talking? Here's what he said about Kendra Miller this off season. It's hard to make the team when you're in the training room all the time also quite frankly since we drafted him there hasn't been a whole lot of new information other than what i saw on college tape because he hasn't been
Starting point is 00:44:54 available you whiny baby the guy's been hurt i don't know if he could pick up the system because i haven't seen him out there you whiny baby look. Look, Harbaugh has Justin Herbert go down and Ladd McConkie go down. You don't see him up at the podium being like, I don't even know if Ladd can do it. He's been injured. Jay, Jay, the man has Quentin Johnston on his team, and I don't hear him. No. And he's defending Quentin Johnston.
Starting point is 00:45:20 Yes, because he's trying to build up his team um yeah i don't know that player sucks at perry here's what he said about another young player at pair he's been fine doing fine in anything is not going to end up cutting it he has to do some things catch our eye and impress us and so i'm still waiting for that from him that was when he was doing good things oh my this dude uh sucks all right tier three oh no his schedule sucks so if you are a saints fan please root with me for them to lose against the panthers in week one this is for the good of your franchise yeah it could be week one because you should win you should beat the panthers so your four point favorites okay but if, oh, it'll be so good. For the future of your franchise, week two, on the road in Dallas.
Starting point is 00:46:11 Week three, against the Philadelphia Eagles. Week four, against the division-winning Atlanta Falcons this season. Week five. Did you just reference the future in your argument? Yeah, he did. I did. Okay, just making sure. Bold prediction, 1.5.
Starting point is 00:46:27 And then week five, on the road against Kansas City. If he doesn't get fired by then when he is 1-4 or 0-5, we're in luck because two weeks later, Sean Payton comes back to the bayou. Ooh, that will be fun. And I promise he will send him home with a pink slip. You want to know why Sean Payton personally installed this guy, Dennis Allen, as the future head coach? Because he knew he was coming back to coach, and he's like,
Starting point is 00:46:57 dude, I would love one team to be coached by that guy. That's an easy dub. That's one last thing to worry about. That's an easy dub. I mean, last year, I don't know if you guys know the details of this story but you know against Atlanta last year this year's future champion of the division they were up it was like 41 to 17 and and the the whole team wanted to get Jamal Williams a touchdown and it came to Dennis Allen. And Dennis Allen said, no, victory formation.
Starting point is 00:47:27 And so the team goes, no, victory formation. And so the team goes out there. Jameis Winston was behind center, and the whole team decides in the huddle, we want to get him the touchdown. So they disobey the coach, which, first of all, huge sign of respect. Yeah, big time. Clearly the coach has respect and just loves working with his team and his team loves working with him.
Starting point is 00:47:52 And then afterwards when they got the touchdown for Jamal Williams and the whole team was happy, Dennis Allen came out after the major victory, one of his few, and said, I can't. He threw Jameis Winston under the bus he threw James Winston under the bus through the team under the bus apologized profusely said that was you know wrong of them he just doesn't care about his he doesn't care about his teammates and his players the way and his coaching staff the way that he should and that will result in him getting fired I think after week five wow and I think all Saints fans want that what do we we think? I love it.
Starting point is 00:48:26 They love it. Tell us what you really think, Jay. Yeah. It's emotional for me. Yeah, no, I pick up on that. Week five is intense. I just think, like, I watch all these press conferences. It's my job.
Starting point is 00:48:40 I watch 32 coaches talk. And there's only one that I'm like this dude sucks i mean just like i would not want yeah that's tough yeah i mean i wouldn't want to be his friend is that too far no no i think i got great you crossed the line so long ago so long ago like 15 minutes he doesn't want to be i don't think he's going to want to be your friend. No, I think we've got to not get that out there. Alright, bold prediction number two. You ready? Oh my goodness.
Starting point is 00:49:18 You thought you liked me. Yeah. The Rams are back. They win the NFC West. Puka and Cup, they're both top 10 wide receivers in 2024. Now, I'm not going to pretend.
Starting point is 00:49:50 They love it i'm not gonna pretend it doesn't hurt as a cardinals fan to have this near me because it does but is it sweaty wearing a rams jersey under your shirt over there the rams are back the rams are back okay tell me why and people can't see it but the rams are back this year and it means that both of those wide receivers that you're trying to decide between they're both finishing in the top 10 this year when when kyron returned from ir from week 12 on the rams averaged 31 points a game in this offense that's a lot sean mcveigh came out and said, he literally said, I can't believe I ever considered retiring. He loves this team.
Starting point is 00:50:30 He loves these players. He says Cooper Cup is the reason that he coaches. They went out and found Puka Nakua, who broke every record. Both guys healthy, both on the field. The defense, everyone wants to pay attention to the fact that Aaron Donald is gone. And that is huge. That's a big deal. But this was a defense that was coming along already.
Starting point is 00:50:47 They made great draft picks. They put Jared Verse into that defense, and they are making great strides. And here, unlike the Saints, they are favored in every single game from weeks 5 through 13 this season. Every single game in that stretch. What about the first four? I am selective in my bold prediction, Mike.
Starting point is 00:51:09 But this idea of them being both top 10 receivers, this is not as uncommon as you think it would be. Antonio Brandon Juju did it in 2018. Evans and Godwin did it in 2019. Adam Thielen did it twice. What?
Starting point is 00:51:25 That's right. Once with Diggs, once with Godwin did it in 2019. Adam Thielen did it twice. What? What? That's right. When? Once with Diggs, once with Jefferson. I don't remember. Yeah, well, it happened. Tyreek and Waddle did it in 2022. A.J. Brown, Devontae Smith did it in 2022.
Starting point is 00:51:38 Wait, who? Jalen Waddle? Jalen Waddle did it. Oh, that guy's good. No one did it last year. I think both of these guys do it this year and how does it happen consolidation of targets these are the two best weapons in the offense when they played together they both were on pace for over 140 targets each that'll get it
Starting point is 00:51:57 done they are a dominant pair what was this just the one clap one clap what okay all right yeah oh no now you're happy it was one person fantasy players trying to decide who is going to be the one they're both going to be wide receiver ones this year and even though it goes against everything that i believe and want to believe as a cardinal fan i have to acknowledge the rams are back and they're winning the division. They're winning the division. All right, Pander Bear. It doesn't feel like pandering. The Harbaugh fans out there don't like it.
Starting point is 00:52:38 A new Pander Bear emerges from the shadows. How does Los Angeles butt taste? Tastes delicious. It does. I've been there. All right, Mike, what do you got? All right. Well, speaking of Los Angeles quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:52:57 Okay. Once upon a time. Jared Garth. Top five quarterback, and he's going to win the mvp of the nfl this season oh my goodness motor city mvp that's right i appreciate garth jared i appreciate that the crowd look you can see beyond the stripes of your own team that was your guy once upon a time and seeing him have success it's great look jared golf the lions have gone from meh right no i think they went from me oh yeah okay why didn't go My sound effects were not all the way back, backdated. Look, exciting upstart.
Starting point is 00:53:46 NFC North champs should have won the NFC championship, and they're putting it all together. Jared Goff, he finally does it. A magical season for both the Lions and fantasy football. When Jared Goff, when he's got the suds after the game, because he's shirtless, you know what's tattooed across that chest? Home and dome games, baby. Home and dome.
Starting point is 00:54:08 Home and dome because that's what he needs. Look, he's played 17 games at Ford Field the last two years. Do you know what his full – that's a full season of games. 17. 17, yeah, you got it. What he has put up, over 4,700 passing yards and 43 passing touchdowns. He should play only home games. What is he doing going on the road?
Starting point is 00:54:30 When we say Jared Goff dominates at home in the Dome, that is not an understatement. Look, six of seven top 12 finishes last year. They were indoors. The Dome. And this year, 14 of the Lions' 17 games will be played indoors that hair the air conditioning it will be flowing the elements are the enemy of jared goff but that's what's great about this enemy he is he is inside look last year qb7 4500 yards 30 passing touchdowns two
Starting point is 00:55:02 rushing touchdowns we looked at top at top five quarterbacks since 2018 who are not mobile guys that's why this is bold to get in the top five it is extremely difficult Brady Stafford Rogers Matt Ryan Barry Roethlisberger Brady look an average of 4,700 passing yards and a TD rate of 6 plus percent. Guess who averages 6 plus percent on his touchdown or on his passing attempts for touchdowns when he's indoors? Jared Goff. Dude, you got it. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:55:36 You absolutely nailed it. Knew it. Nice guess. Reminder, 14 of 17 games are indoors. The Lions, look. He just said that a minute ago yeah because i got to drive the point in man it's just it's a it's a speech giving technique yeah so nice you say it twice exactly uh right now every lions game every lions game has a projected total of over 47
Starting point is 00:56:00 points the over unders are absolutely six sick for the Detroit Lions. Now let's talk about MVP. He's a quarterback. Quarterbacks win. And you're the guy who says he's going to win the MVP. That's right. I am that guy, unfortunately. He's a quarterback. Check, 11 years in a row, double-digit win team. Yeah, that's going to happen. I'm going to check that box off for him. And look, the Lions are going to lead the NFL in scoring because, did you hear this part, 14 of 17 games. No, look, in all seriousness, it really matters to Jared Goff that he's playing indoors.
Starting point is 00:56:43 This is not anti-Jameer Gibbs by any means. Jameer Gibbs is an elite pass-catching weapon. This team can be high-T because of their coach, and yet that dude up there, Dan Campbell, guns Mahoney. He respects the pass. Jared Goff is going to put up great numbers, and I'm calling for an outlier season. I'm calling for a top- five finish and the league MVP.
Starting point is 00:57:08 Thank you. Was he in out of curiosity? I don't know this answer. Was he in my guy consideration? No, because this is called a bold prediction. Yeah, that's fair. This is not called a prediction. Okay.
Starting point is 00:57:24 Okay. There's the bold. Got it. Why don't you take it down a notch, Jay? Yeah, I will. Tighten up them cheeks. It's called a bold prediction. However, this is one that I sadly actually believe in.
Starting point is 00:57:40 So I will go so far as being bold and call this a prediction no josh allen goes from hero to zero yeah that's not gonna come back to bite you this is a really really hard case to make against Josh Allen. I mean, over the last four years, Josh Allen was the quarterback one, the quarterback one, the quarterback two, and then the quarterback one. So you're like, and he's drafted as the quarterback one now. He should be. He's a hero.
Starting point is 00:58:19 In most people's rankings, he's the quarterback one. I mean, it makes makes sense he is a great passer and he is mobile he has a lot of rushing upside but I want to go over a couple of things now this bold prediction of hero to zero is really mid-year we talked about earlier how players often have a great start to the season and a bad finish look at Patrick Mahomes last year he was unbelievable the first half of the season he looked like he was going to be winning everybody fantasy championships him and Kelsey were on fire how many people had Patrick Mahomes last year did you draft Patrick Mahomes I see people covering their eyes raise your hand there's some people
Starting point is 00:59:02 crying raise your hand if you won a championship with Patrick Mahomes last year we got one over here okay two people in the world three liars we have three liars in here incredible I mean my point is like he was terrible the back end of the the season and he's the greatest quarterback on the planet. This isn't to say Josh Allen isn't good. It's to say his season, his setup, is going to work against him at the end of the season. I don't even mind drafting him. I would draft him where he is at ADP, but I'm going to look to unload him for value. Here's why. The first six weeks of the season, he's the quarterback six. The rest of the season is strength of schedule. He has the easiest schedule. He starts with the Cardinals. Yeah, baby. Yeah, that's pretty good. The rest of the season is strength of schedule he has the easiest schedule he starts with the Cardinals yeah baby yeah that's pretty good the end of the year is brutal it's the 26th
Starting point is 00:59:50 schedule and the fantasy playoffs is even worse but let's go over his setup for 2024 he has a new offensive coordinator midway through last year and Joe Brady Joe Brady historically we've we've brought this up a couple of times Joe Brady's been in the NFL a lot, and he always ends up getting exposed. Now, he didn't have time last year. It was great. They won a lot of games. But if you look at him as a passer with Joe Brady, weeks 11 through 18, he went from a 70% completion percentage passer down to a 61% passer.
Starting point is 01:00:22 He went from a touchdown pace of 32 touchdowns down to 24 with joe brady anthony richardson's dreaming of that completion percentage 4400 yard pace to 4100 yard pace if you're drafting him as the quarterback one and he finishes as the quarterback five that's an l yeah that is it's not going to work you have to have someone like how he's been lately, who's been lapping the field and you're going to say, Oh, Josh Allen will be fine, but it's not that easy. You, you have someone who lost so many of his targets. Stefan Diggs is gone. Gabe Davis is gone. They, they can be the butt of jokes. We could say no, but, but it still matters. You just talk about total vacated targets, and it's tough. 284 vacated targets for the wide receivers is the most associated
Starting point is 01:01:09 with any quarterback drafted in the top five since 2018. In that sample, 70% of quarterbacks with just 100-plus vacated targets failed to meet their ADP. And this is the first time ever that the quarterback won in ADP, which is what Josh Allen is has all of his wide receivers drafted outside of the top 40 it's never been done before then you look at that end of season schedule and specifically the playoff weeks where he plays New England outside in cold weather last year in New England in the fantasy playoffs, Josh Allen completed 50% of his passes.
Starting point is 01:01:46 Anthony Richardson could hit that. Zero touchdown passes. And then in week 17 in the championship, it's the Jets. Like he's not going – I really do think he's an okay pick. But the second half of the year, there is an easy and obvious path for him to be, let's say, the quarterback eight why are you so mean yeah I think something happened in my heart made him so mean um so look I mean Josh Allen's great player I think he'll figure things out I mean he had 15 rushing touchdowns last year
Starting point is 01:02:21 if he repeats that obviously he's going to be great now he's stupid I would I would look stupid this is a guy who's never had double digit rushing touchdowns in his career If he repeats that, obviously he's going to be great. You're going to look stupid. I would look stupid. This is a guy who's never had double-digit rushing touchdowns in his career. It's not like Jalen Hurts, who, yeah, he had 15 rushing touchdowns. Why aren't we talking about that? But Jalen Hurts, as a starter, has never not had double-digit rushing touchdowns. This was like I have Josh Allen currently slated for nine rushing touchdowns, which would be the second highest of his career. And that's great, but that's a huge gap.
Starting point is 01:02:48 And if you're drafting him number one, he gets off to a hot start. I guess really what I'm saying is if you got him and he has the hot start, capitalize and trade him. That's what I will be doing. Thoughts, Mike? It's persuasive. It's persuasive.'s persuasive it's dumb yeah okay it the hard part about fantasy football is you can't like seeing something that hasn't happened right it and then and then once the once history reveals itself and we look back and you go,
Starting point is 01:03:26 oh, it was so obvious. Like when you call your shot on something like this, you sound like a lunatic. We'll see if you're a lunatic. Hero to zero. Hero to zero, Josh. The margin between genius and insanity is. How mad will you be if like the Saints have a great year? Oh, my gosh. I'll be so upset. How upset are you going if the Saints have a great year? Oh, my gosh.
Starting point is 01:03:45 I'll be so upset. How upset are you going to be if they run the table? If Josh Allen finishes as the quarterback one, I'll be cheering. I'll be happy. I will have forgotten this bold take. But if the Saints are good, oh, my gosh. Oh, man. I'll shave my head.
Starting point is 01:03:58 I will shave my head. Oh, we're back to this. If the Saints win 10 games, I will shave my head on air. That won't take long. The only problem with me saying that is now people are rooting for T. DeSalle and I don't like that. To shave your head,
Starting point is 01:04:15 that's just like a light breeze. Right, right, right. I just use a towel and I just scrub hard. Then it's gone. You guys want to do some mailbag? Oh, yeah, we do. Y'all ready? Y'all ready for the drop? Mike, you getting them ready?
Starting point is 01:04:35 Can we get some lights? Can we get some lights on the house? All right. Mailbag. That was an all-timer. That was outstanding. It was harmonized. Outstanding.
Starting point is 01:04:52 All right, we're going to do some live mailbag here on the show before we give away this beauty. Oh, is that a Papa Josh call-out? Don't do that. No, we don't need. Papa Josh doesn't need any attention. Oh, man. All right.
Starting point is 01:05:09 How you doing? What's your name? Carlos. Carlos, what do you got for us? Nice to meet you. Good evening, gentlemen. Good evening. My question is, in a dynasty rookie draft,
Starting point is 01:05:17 how do you decide between best player available and a positional need? Did you hear that? You want me to repeat it? So that was in a dynasty rookie draft, best player available or position of need. How do you make that decision? What is the differentiator for you? Well, I mean, I can tell you from maybe, look,
Starting point is 01:05:36 maybe this is just my experience. It is not, Mike. But many years in the first round, I have gone, I got to get this running back. I got the position. I am so shallow. Yeah, sure. There's this, what, top five NFL draft pick, Jalen Waddell.
Starting point is 01:05:57 Sure. But you know what? I really need a running back or I really need a quarterback. And it has been a disaster each and every time. In Dynasty, you got to follow the money. Look, it's all about probability. Of course, not every first-round wide receiver is going to be a hit. We know that.
Starting point is 01:06:20 We've seen the NFL long enough. But the probability of a first-round wide receiver being awesome in the NFL versus a bust for for fantasy football it's a good bet to make and so it's and then in the long term once that player turns on there's so much more valuable than this like RB2 on your bench I just think the burn hurts more when you feel resigned to take a position versus the players that you believe in never if it does work out okay it worked out but if it doesn't you know you made the mistake at the time because you wanted you had a conviction about another player but you felt like you had to fill a gap i never i never do it anymore i take the best player available on the board no matter regardless of position team needs are
Starting point is 01:07:05 obviously very very important they're the devil they are that they are the devil in the sense that like i mean i've done this i drafted trey sermon way too high because i was desperate for a running back you drafted royce freeman way too high because you were you were desperate for a running back and then let's be honest i had no picks when you're saying do i draft team need or best player we're just talking about running back we're just like I need a running back yeah and so it's like do you overdraft them and I promise you this this is the real takeaway a bad running back will never be a good pick I mean that's just the truth like if you draft a crappy running back it's not going to help
Starting point is 01:07:40 your team so so don't do that if you don't believe in that player if you actually don't believe in them don't push them over a wide receiver you believe in it it won't work in the end best player available is the way to go always i've never made a draft mistake next question you can't make this i've never been in a draft you miss every shot you don't take all right bonjour guys bonjour bon. This is Buckwheat from Germany. Germany. All right. Down the street. Hold on.
Starting point is 01:08:08 Hold on. Hold on. Shout out to my dynasty league. Okay. Like, did you come here just for the show? Yeah, I flew in yesterday. I'm half awake. What time is it in Germany right now?
Starting point is 01:08:20 6 a.m. All right. My man. Make some noise. The man from Germany. Yeah, I'll do it. Thank you. With the crowd control. What's All right, my man. Make some noise. The man from Germany. I'll do it. Thank you. With the crowd control.
Starting point is 01:08:28 What's your question, my friend? All right. So do you guys have like any weird rituals or superstitions that you swear help you win your week? Do we have any weird superstitions or rituals we do? Yes. Yeah. There are things that have developed over the years there there are things that exist in this world in the metaphysical and one of the things they
Starting point is 01:08:54 work every single time yeah one of the things that has happened over time for whatever reason is that oftentimes specifically jason and myself because we've had this divisional rivalry for years. It is insufferable. And the second the week starts, for whatever reason, if something goes wrong, one play, one moment, we'll congratulate the other person on the victory. Instantly. And sometimes we've taken that to a pre- congratulations card or gift i have but i have i
Starting point is 01:09:26 have gotten a card and put money in it because no one wants to get don't give people cards without money okay don't do that that's you know what i mean that's not gonna get you a win no you gotta open that card you gotta have money if it's like a birthday or a victory card i've gotten a card before the week began like congrats on your victory this week with a $20 bill in sight. I find, I really do find this, and this is anecdotally scientifically proven, that people that talk a lot of trash the week leading up to a matchup, say the biggest loser who's here and is named that for a reason, you freaking loser, they end up losing. But alternatively, if, like, when i went up against brooks in the
Starting point is 01:10:09 championship matchup instead decide to dote on him and buy him pizza delivered and give him gifts did he buy you a pizza he didn't and i won so treat your opponents with kindness. You talk all that trash post-victory. Okay, don't hear what I'm not saying. Be a monster. But wait until you're a victor first. Kill them with kindness. Kill them with kindness. And pizza.
Starting point is 01:10:35 And pizza, yeah. Thank you for coming to the show. That's incredible. Yeah, give it up. Bonjour. Next question. Thank you. I forgot.
Starting point is 01:10:48 What's your name? Jose. Hi, Jose. Oh, Jason's black polo. Very nice. He's wearing Jason's black polo. I was missing that shirt. I was missing it.
Starting point is 01:10:58 Yeah, I'm pretty much got the whole get up right now. Shout out to the Toe Clan. I just want to let you guys know um so my question is if you only got to keep one my guy the my guy is my guy who would it be okay all right keeping one my guy of the three my guys the my guysiest yeah maybe kyle pitts is sneaking in you didn't make me do that right no no i can jump in first because I know it's – for me, it's Kyler Murray. My faith that Kyler Murray is going to come through for fantasy football. A smattering of applause.
Starting point is 01:11:31 Thank you so much. Kyler managers. I really believe in Kyler. I mean, I believe in all of my guys, but certain players carry higher risk than the others and kyler to me is he is in that perfect spot of low risk incredible reward you're gonna be booing when you're playing against kyler murray so that's my my guy so i completely understand that right we always have different levels of confidence in our my guys.
Starting point is 01:12:06 And sometimes we're just really sure of one or two, and we're searching for others. My my guy is my guy. I'm going to go with Devon A. Chan. But it is not because I have extreme confidence. I am confident, but I'm much more confident in the floor and ceiling outcome of like Isaiah Pacheco. He's safer? He's safer.
Starting point is 01:12:34 But when it comes to like who's really the my guy-iest one, it's like I'm willing to take the risk. I'm willing to go and say like I don't want to be burned if I'm wrong here, and so I'm all in. And it's really one of those things where early in the offseason, I just went back and forth. Like, there was a point where I was like, I am too afraid to take this guy. And I really – I came around and I said, I don't want to be the one –
Starting point is 01:13:01 because I believe in him. I think he's super talented. I watched him dominate last year and if he comes out and dominates, I will be so mad at myself if I didn't just follow my beliefs. So he is like a my guy.
Starting point is 01:13:16 My guy. My guy. Are you doing Matthew McConaughey right now? Matthew McConaughey did me. My God. All right. Yeah, my people. Can you guess mine?
Starting point is 01:13:30 Calvin Ridley. Yeah, it's Calvin Ridley. We have a whiteboard at the office, and we start jotting names down, and sometimes they have a little lock next to them when you have a strong conviction. And Ridley's just been down there the whole offseason. He really has. I mean, for me,
Starting point is 01:13:45 it was Evans with that conviction last offseason. So we'll find out if I'm dumb or not. Peel back the curtain a little bit. He went to CVS. He bought nail polish and he wrote it on the board of nail polish. Super weird, but that's how strong. He ruined our board. I don't know why I did that. I had to get a new whiteboard. Thank you, sir.
Starting point is 01:14:01 Thank you for your question. Thank you for coming. Next question. Hey, Ballers. How's it going? What's your name? Good. Chris from Thank you, sir. Thank you for your question. Thank you for coming. Next question. Hey, Ballers. How's it going? What's your name? Good. Chris from Jacksonville, Florida. What's up, Chris?
Starting point is 01:14:10 Oh. Yeah. Got a Keep Trade Cut Nasty Boys edition for you. Oh, you don't like them nasty? With Jerry Judy, Jacoby Myers, and Hollywood. Oh, gross. All right. Nasty Boys.
Starting point is 01:14:22 Oh, no. Oh, Andy. Oh, look at this. Oh. Look at this. Oh. gross. All right, nasty boys. Oh, no. Oh, Andy. Oh, look at this. Oh, look at this. Oh. For the podcast listening audience, and please turn around for our live audience. This man is wearing a shirt. I got golden ticketed, and I got T-shirted today.
Starting point is 01:14:42 This man is wearing a shirt with Andy Holloway's face missing a tooth. Yeah, you get both sides. No? It's not happening. Okay, all right. Nasty Boys edition. All right, Nasty Boys edition. That is a bright t-shirt.
Starting point is 01:15:01 Yeah. That is bright. Keep trade cut, Nasty Boys. There's one dark spot on it, though. It's where there should be a T. These are nasty boys. Jerry Judy, Jacoby Myers, Hollywood Brown. Hollywood Brown is actually another one of those hot starters,
Starting point is 01:15:17 but he's injured going into the year. Yeah. I mean, did you hear they're starting to call the three wideouts in Kansas City? Fahrenheit 451. Did you see that? No. What are they, burning books? Those are three numbers.
Starting point is 01:15:28 Oh. You got Rashi Rice and Hollywood and Worthy. Have they read the book? It doesn't seem like a great idea. They might want to catch up on some literature. Hollywood is nasty. Yeah. Jacoby Myers.
Starting point is 01:15:42 If you already think Devontae's risky, Myers with those quarterbacks, nasty. Yep. And Jerry Judy has never not been nasty. Yeah, this is gross, man. Why did this question get in here? Yeah, you don't have any better questions? You know, Hollywood is the clear best player of this group, but I feel like you have to cut him because you're not drafting an injured guy.
Starting point is 01:16:02 I think Judy's a better player. You think Jerry Judy's a better player than Hollywood Brown? Yeah. Based on what? I think the opportunity is here. College film? I just think Hollywood, we're already seeing the problem with Hollywood. The last two years has been injury riddled and then one play in.
Starting point is 01:16:22 At least they gave Judy the money and he's going to be on the field every play yeah uh jacoby myers is the best player this is nasty okay look jacoby myers is the best player of this bunch he's look i it fell off at the end of the year with aden o'connell because do we have three different answers we do i'm keeping jacoby myers a gardner men's shoe and that magnificent mustache will do enough for Jacoby Myers. And then I will trade Hollywood Brown and Jerry Judy as my cut. I actually think I'm going to keep Jacoby Myers as well. Yeah, you are because he's the best of the three. I will trade Jerry Judy and I'll cut Hollywood because I didn't believe he was going to be good enough before the injury to draft a player who is actively injured going into the season.
Starting point is 01:17:10 So I'll let someone else grab Hollywood. And I'll be that guy that keeps Jerry Judy despite everything he's ever done. Hopes and dreams. All right. Thank you for the question. Thank you so much. And no thank you for the shirt. No, that shirt was fantastic.
Starting point is 01:17:27 All right. We have one more big thing to do here on the episode, which is to give away a signed Cooper Cup helmet and a signed Cooper Cup jersey, which will also come along with this. And we're going to do that. Shout out to Pristine Auction for giving us that stuff. this. Shout out to Pristine Auction for getting us that stuff. And all the stuff that we've been throwing out
Starting point is 01:17:49 and all the stuff that they donated for the silent auction for Fantasy Cares. So, big friends of the show. Here's what we're going to do for the giveaway. We already gave it away. Because we threw a lot of stuff out there and if you caught a hat, there is one hat that has a golden star under the bill.
Starting point is 01:18:11 And if you have that hat, you are the winner. People are checking the giveaway. Everyone check your bill. Do you have one? You got it. You got the golden star. We've got a winner over here. All right.
Starting point is 01:18:26 But we want the hat back. Hey, number 10. Number 10. Congratulations. No, congratulations. No, no, no. Hold on. Stay in your seat.
Starting point is 01:18:36 At the end of the show, you just come up and we'll get you the stuff. We'll get you the stuff. So, again, round of applause, Christine Oxen. Can I get a round of applause for Sleeper? I know a lot of you play on Sleeper. They sponsored this event. They got this event going. And appreciate everybody that participated in the silent auction,
Starting point is 01:18:55 ballersauction.com. You can keep bidding on that silent auction up until 11.30 p.m. tonight, and all proceeds go to Fantasy Cares. And so thank you to anybody that has done that. And thank you all. Yes.30 p.m. tonight. And all proceeds go to Fantasy Cares. Yes. And so thank you to anybody that has done that. And thank you all. Yes. Yes. Thank you.
Starting point is 01:19:09 We love you, Foot Clan. You guys are undefeated. 2,000 shows over the last 10 years. 2,000 shows. Thank you. Yeah. Glasses up to the Foot Clan. A toast to the Foot Clan.
Starting point is 01:19:22 Thank you all out there. We will be back in a few minutes to come out and do a live Q&A. Anything you have, any question you have, fantasy or not, we'll be back out here in a few minutes to spend that time with you. And Jason, I believe it might be time to pick up that T-shirt cannon one more time. Thank you, everybody. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for listening to another edition of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Don't forget to visit us on the web at www.thefantasyfootballers.com
Starting point is 01:20:40 and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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