Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - THE MEGALASHOW! Bold Predictions LIVE in LA - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/28

Episode Date: August 28, 2023

Bold Predictions for the 2023 fantasy football season and lots more! It’s the MEGALASHOW! Andy, Mike, and Jason give spicy hot takes Live at the Palace Theatre in LA! Plus, player and musician comps..., Mike’s Trey Lance trade reaction, Josh Jacobs returns, and Live Mailbag! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for August 28th, 2023. Check out the 2023 Ultimate Draft Kit + Draft Analyzer! UltimateDraftKit.com Compete in the largest fantasy football league! Megalabowl.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on Twitter Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Check out today's sponsors: News & Notes presented by USAA. Visit https://USAA.com/Insurance Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,
Starting point is 00:00:19 including a new chance to win cash every minute in the app. Get into the game with Monopoly Double Play at McDonald's. While supplies last, one in five chances to win game piece prizes at outset, chances to win Double Play prizes based on time of code entry, and draw prizes based on number of entries in each draw. See rules in the app. Get a credit card annual fee waiver and earn C-plus points faster with the Scotiabank Ultimate Package and bank more entertainment. Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages. Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
Starting point is 00:01:19 Welcome here! Welcome here! Y'all crazy! Welcome in to the Megalith Show. Mike can't even handle it. My heart rate's really high, guys. Your heart rate... Are you getting alerts on the watch? I didn't do enough Bellator. Oh, man.
Starting point is 00:01:42 I was not ready for this. Welcome to the Megalith Show live in Los Angeles. Thank you, everybody, for being here. The Megalith Show brought to you by our good friends, sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. We love them. How many basketball drafts are we doing, people? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:02:01 Yeah. Jason will be doing one in the middle of the show. I think I'm on the clock. Jason's on the clock. We've been very busy getting ready for the show. I think I'm on the clock. We've been very busy getting ready for this show. I hope I didn't auto-draft too much. Nope, I'm good. And your sweat level is maximum? It's out of control.
Starting point is 00:02:14 I'm sweaty. I'm overweight. I did not do any of the Peloton training. I did do burger training. I did sandwich training. I did steak. It went tremendously. I finished every course You powered through?
Starting point is 00:02:28 Powered through He's been spinning the last one hour In front of a big fan downstairs That's not No no no no no This thing Literally has a sign on it That says
Starting point is 00:02:36 The big fan It is a Industrial huge fan And I am a fan of it You're a fan of the fan I am a fan of that fan because I am hot. Do we have some people out here with the UDK?
Starting point is 00:02:52 What about, you said he gave us an ax. Does he give us a plus over there? Have you got the plus out there? What, the UDK plus? The UDK plus? Yeah, it's certainly going on out there. Yeah, these are our people. I know they're our people, but one thing that I wanted to say, thank you to all of you for picking up the UDK, for coming to the live shows, for contributing because we're hitting a mark.
Starting point is 00:03:14 We are. $250,000 raised for St. Jude over the last seven years. I mean, that's. And that's from the generosity of the Foot Clan, and we're really proud of that. Yeah, that's what your guys is doing. You guys, we really appreciate you. Well, we did some. We won some fantasy championships.
Starting point is 00:03:32 That is true. We did win some titles in some celebrity leagues and got some extra quiche. But for the most part, it's our fans. Thank you. Thank you very much. Actually, now that I think about it. Oh, God.
Starting point is 00:03:44 It's probably mostly us, Mike. I think you're right. But fans now that I think about it. Oh, God. It's probably mostly us, Mike. I think you're right. But fans, you guys are also great. Well, let's get it going. We got a quick question. Let's go. We're going to have some fun with this. Your job is to compare a player to a – Mike's already laughing.
Starting point is 00:04:01 Look, they know it's a live show, so they know that there's a ridiculous bit about to happen. Accurate. Compare a player to a famous band or musician. Nice. I guess I'm going to start it after I take this sip of water. Yeah. I guess I control everything, so I'm going to start everything. Gabe Davis.
Starting point is 00:04:22 Ooh, he's a babe. Gabe the babe. Babe Davis. Who's also going, he's a babe. Gabe the babe. Gabe Davis. Who's also going to be great this year. Gabe Davis is basically... You may not like this then. Smash Mouth! Oh!
Starting point is 00:04:42 Oh man, the beard on the beard. The beard on the beard. The beard on the beard. Look, Gabe Davis is like Smash Mouth because he's got a few hits. They're big hits. They're big hits. The four-touchdown game in the playoffs. Oh, they sucked me right in. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:04:58 Yeah, it plays in your head. There's children pressing. You've got the the 98 yard touchdown week five last year sure and just like smash mouth those songs that get stuck in your head and they play over and over and over again in fact uh what all-star has been played a billion times on spotify people just keep playing it impressive a few big, a few big plays. Hold on. That's Kyle's stat. A billion?
Starting point is 00:05:28 A billion. A billion streams for? A billion streams. Hey, now. Which? He's an all-star. What are we doing with our lives? But just like Smash Mouth, I don't want to buy the whole album.
Starting point is 00:05:44 Yeah, that's right. You just want to buy the whole album. Yeah, that's right. You just want to stream that one track. I'll just stream the hit, and maybe I'll play it at parties, but that's like best ball to me. Yeah, yeah, it's a great best ball pick. I don't want it added to my playlist this year. I don't want to buy the album, and I'm not going to that concert. So I'm afraid Gabe Davis is like Smash Mouth.
Starting point is 00:06:06 I'm sorry. And that beard, man. Good work, Schneider. It's beard. I've never seen like a soul patch upon a beard. This is a first for me. It can be done. So, Mike.
Starting point is 00:06:20 All right. What do you got for us? So, you know, sometimes there's an underground band, and they come out guns blazing. Just a great smash first record. You like those bands. Oh, we all do, but they're underground. And your friend's telling you, your friend's telling you,
Starting point is 00:06:36 then boom, radio's nonstop. Are you the friend in this situation? Of course I'm the friend. I know all the cool music before. It's cool. Man, that's my job. Look at him. And that's why Antonio Gibson is Green Day.
Starting point is 00:06:58 There he is. That's a look. I mean, he's not playing any chords. No, no, no. The technique on the guitar is questionable. Dare I say beginner level. I'm sorry, Antonio Gibson. But here's what I mean by that.
Starting point is 00:07:14 Underground, only your best friend was telling you you need to draft Antonio Gibson as a rookie. I pointed to myself for the people on the audio podcast. Superstar. Second album, you're like, it's pretty good, but I'm a little concerned. And then, Catastrophe. A couple good songs here and there, and you're like, oh, no. Oh, no. This band has absolutely fallen apart.
Starting point is 00:07:38 And you're trying to pitch them. Yeah. But you don't got the heart to do it anymore. And your original friend's like, no, just stay strong. Just stay strong. And then out of nowhere, American Idiot hits the airwaves, and they are back in such a big way that you cannot say that this is not one of the most famous and impactful rock bands of all time.
Starting point is 00:07:58 And that's my point, ladies and gentlemen. This year is American Idiot? 2023. My champion. Not your champion. Wait, you're. My champion. Not your champion. Wait, you're taking him back? Not your champion. He's my champion. He's my champion.
Starting point is 00:08:12 2023 is Antonio Gibson becomes an American Idiot and that sounds really bad. But it's really good. But it's good. Yeah, it's so bad that it's good. So there it is.
Starting point is 00:08:26 Okay. All right. I like it. I like it. All right. They were chanting your name, Jason. It's your turn. Well, it makes sense.
Starting point is 00:08:33 They know something good is about to happen. Well, something bad is about to happen. We'll find out. I want to bring up a player that I don't think we talk enough about. Doesn't get enough respect. Maybe we'll see. I want to talk about talk enough about. It doesn't get enough respect. Maybe we'll see. I want to talk about Geno Smith. Eh?
Starting point is 00:08:50 Do we like Geno? This is a mixed group. Well, that's fine. This is pretty obvious. I think you're all, you know, like clearly. Geno Smith, as a musician, is clearly Miley Cyrus. Yeah! Yeah! Look at that hair.
Starting point is 00:09:09 There he is. Look at that beautiful hair. Of course he is. Obviously. I know it's so obvious. Because he came in like a wrecking ball last year. He sure did last year. But there's a lot more than just the wrecking ball.
Starting point is 00:09:23 Okay, basically both Miley Cyrus and Go Smith started their career as someone else. You know what I mean? Like, Miley Cyrus was Hannah Montana, and Geno Smith sucked. That was his Hannah Montana years? That was his Hannah Montana. He was on the Disney Channel in New York? And they spent, you know, a large chunk of their careers mostly being made fun of. Oh, no.
Starting point is 00:09:45 Geno was the butt of a joke. But then this last season, he comes in like a wrecking ball. And here's the real comparison. Uh-oh. If I'm going to be honest. You should. There's a lot of people. Geno Smith is like Miley Cyrus in that he's actually really good.
Starting point is 00:10:06 And so is Miley. Look, you can hate all you want, but Miley's a genius. You've admitted so much in that last sentence. Yeah. Wow. So, yeah, Geno Smith's going to have a great year. He's got great weapons. Miley Cyrus is just going to keep coming out with bangers, you know.
Starting point is 00:10:31 Talent knows talent. I think they agree with you yeah it doesn't Mike does because he's drafting him everywhere yes yes I'm in on Geno Smith he's good I don't know about the Miley part what you're saying you don't know if Miley Cyrus is good I mean I'm aware of wrecking ball. All right. Hey, we have, by good fortune, some serious news to talk about. No, we don't. Hit it, Al. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. Now, I'm not going to say that I'm pleased that we get to have this discussion in front of a thousand people But I'm very pleased that we get to have this discussion in front of a thousand people
Starting point is 00:11:13 Okay We could all comment on the Trey Lance situation But there's one person I really want to hear from Trey Lance To the Cowboys Not not for a third-round pick. Oh, yeah, I was way off. For one of those measly fourths. Let me get your thoughts, Mike.
Starting point is 00:11:39 Oh, yes. Take the spotlight. So, it's not great. He gets a fresh start. There's a starting quarterback, Dak Prescott, who's pretty good. The team likes him. What about, like, dynasty teams? What do they do?
Starting point is 00:12:02 Well, just, I mean. Just, well, here, I'm going to give you a quote from Jerry Jones. Jerry Jones said, the idea of Lance playing a significant role this year for the Cowboys is unlikely. Quote. Hold on. Wait, that's not the big. No, it gets so much worse.
Starting point is 00:12:26 Okay. All right. Quote, I don't want to plan on, count on, or wish for help from him this year. Oh, no! Oh, get bodied. You just traded for him, dude. Pump the guy up. The guy needs some confidence.
Starting point is 00:12:45 And Trey wanted out. So here's my actual fantasy advice. He was in a much better situation in San Francisco. He would have played. Like, we all think that Brock Purdy is the guy and is good, but there is a chance that Brock Purdy falls on his face. Like, there is a chance. their backup is Sam Darnold zero percent chance that what could go wrong what could go wrong with Sam Darnold is your backup so now he's buried on the Cowboys for
Starting point is 00:13:15 multiple years Dak Prescott I looked at the contract there's no way out there is no way out for the Dallas Cowboys not that they want want out. They brought Trey Lance in. They're hoping that he could become a backup who they, quote, don't want to plan on or wish for help from. I had not heard that until this moment, and I'm literally sad for Trey Lance. Why has Jerry got to do that? We don't wish for help? You brought him in to help your team this poor guy
Starting point is 00:13:46 so if you're in dynasty it's over yeah so so let me let me i've got two points to make here the first is you were talking about how a week so ago before he became the third string yeah you were let's call it half joking that if you were to cut him in a dynasty league you would basically be putting a landmine out for someone else to pick him up and have to clog their roster with him but then he became third string and it was like i don't even know i don't even know if it's worth that right now do you try to trade him away for anything? You get a third-round pick or – Fourth?
Starting point is 00:14:28 Yeah. Or move on from him, or are you just holding? What's the prescription here? You get a fourth when you – Yeah, you get a fourth in a three-round rookie league. Yeah, three-round rookie draft, ask for a fourth. So let me ask you this. You can probably get that.
Starting point is 00:14:44 Are you clamoring to to roster cooper rush in your dynasty leagues he's not on my single quarterback leagues no sir no well then trey lance look the here's the honest truth is i have no freaking idea he's he's on my roster for now what's wild is those two guys shanahan and lynch would be fired yeah if they didn't hit on purdy in the seventh round yes and now they're probably gonna win a super bowl the other point i want to make is more addressed to the foot clan because my goodness y'all were salty on on x um there were two groups there were the mike lovers and the Mike detractors when this trade went through. No, no, no.
Starting point is 00:15:29 They were on both sides, Michael. No, it's all Mike love on Twitter. All the time. In your timeline, sure. Yeah. So some people were saying, Andy and I. It took me until just now to realize you were talking about Twitter. Yeah, sorry, on Twitter.
Starting point is 00:15:43 I was like, whose x is here twitter.com yeah um go on but like you know andy and i were saying there's no way he'd get a a third round pick a day two draft capital and then you know like like i'd offer a seventh or a sixth round pick and then he got a fourth and so some people came to your side and were like yeah you were so close you said he got a fourth yeah and then other people were fighting those people in threads and being like they did they were right they didn't get a day two draft cap on here's what i want to say take lock here's what i want to say andy and i were totally right. You know what I mean? And here's why. Because there was apparently interest from a lot of different teams.
Starting point is 00:16:33 Buffalo was in? Yeah. I think there were five rumored teams that had made offers, and they were all sixth-round picks, conditionally a fifth. Dallas came in to win the day by offering a fourth, which was better than what everyone was offering. Yeah. And that's a day three draft capital.
Starting point is 00:16:52 It's so – I know that, like, we talk about with rookie running backs. There's a lot of talk to prove how right he is. Yeah. It's important. I hear you. And so we talk a lot about the difference between a day two pick and a day three pick for running backs, the third and fourth. But I just want people to know we were right. Yeah. Everybody understands that now.
Starting point is 00:17:07 Yeah, yeah, yeah. Y'all understand? Nope. Yeah. They get it. Okay. More unfortunate news before some good news. Jerry Judy.
Starting point is 00:17:18 Yeah. You had to talk him up, Andy. You had to talk him up. Reaper's going to reap. It was just so weird because you made me profess that I believed in him. Yeah, well, that was the question. Hamstring is going to miss several weeks. It could be bad.
Starting point is 00:17:39 No Tim Patrick. Is the renewal of Russell Wilson even possible? What do we think? It's far less likely now. Russell Wilson. But here's the actual fantasy thing is, look, don't buy the second string tight end for the Denver Broncos. Oh, no. Good luck.
Starting point is 00:18:00 Dulcich is going to be just fine. Good luck. But for Jerry Judy, the real actionable advice is like this this sucks it's really bad to get a uh a multi-week hamstring injury right at the beginning of the year because he's gonna be doing everything he can he's gonna force his way back on the field your risk of re-injury is massive and it's just the it's not that he can't it's that the probability is so against him as we've seen with players time after time after time who have the big hamstring injury right now so it's it it really just it it feels bad it's not to say that that he can't come back and be
Starting point is 00:18:39 very good this year if he was going to be good he's going to be good we saw that with Keenan Allen last year right Keenan Allen came back the second half of last year. That was so painful. It's so miserable. If you drafted Keenan Allen, it was miserable. You had to wait way too long. He came back, got re-injured. So this is where it's like I think Jerry Judy can have a really good second half
Starting point is 00:18:58 of the season, but I don't want to participate in the road to get there. I'll pick him up on waivers. Corlin Sutton? Corlin Sutton seems like he could actually be very relevant now. Tim Patrick is down. Jerry Judy is down. I think at this point, they're just going to stink again. I mean, Sean Payton was like. He's hedging.
Starting point is 00:19:22 Yes, that was the biggest takeaway of all the – we didn't really talk about it on the show, but all of his attacking Nathaniel Hackett, and then we had Aaron Rodgers come to his coach's defense. But it's like you're pretty much a Hall of Fame coach, and you're at a brand-new team. You took a whole bunch of cash to go there, and immediately you're like, well, this other guy messed things up so bad.
Starting point is 00:19:46 So if I'm not good, you blame that guy. I know. I know. It was ridiculous. And could have used Tim Patrick and Jerry Judy. Yeah. You want good news? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:19:59 Josh Jacobs is back, baby. Oh, yeah. Get it, Mike. Get it, baby. Oh, yeah. Get it, Mike. Get it, Mike. Hey, I like it. Get it, Mike. I like it. Okay.
Starting point is 00:20:12 Josh Jacobs is back. He's been paid a little bit more money. Okay. He even tweeted he's back, so he's excited. Yep. He's back for Fantasy, Jason, just like you predicted. Yeah, I mean, we were saying with the new CBA, people don't really hold out. I'm a little bit more scared of Jonathan Taylor, not because of the holdout,
Starting point is 00:20:34 but because of the unknown around the injury. Maybe he's not injured at all. Maybe he's super injured. We just don't know, and that scares me, and there's other good players there. With Josh Jacobs, it was just he's holding out. And it's like, well, he's not going gonna hold out he's he's gonna play football it's going to happen and it's going to be for the raiders so we told people draft them i hope you did when you had your opportunity for him drop into the second and third do you think he goes back to the first i think he'll be i think he'll be no by by, it's funny because this is so close to the draft weekend,
Starting point is 00:21:07 this weekend and next weekend, he probably will stay in the second round. And so I think he's going to be a phenomenal value. If you're drafting this weekend or next weekend and he's in the second round, I would absolutely grab him. He's on a one-year contract where they're going to give him the same workload. I don't think he's going to rush for 1,800 yards and be some unbelievable monster. Last year was the best year of Josh Jacobs' career.
Starting point is 00:21:30 But he's going to touch the ball 350 times. So long as he comes in in shape, I think we're good to go. Which, speaking of that, Ian Rappaport just tweeted out. We have a picture of him working out. Coming back? Yeah, yeah. Do we have that?
Starting point is 00:21:45 Is he signing the contract? Do we have that? It's such a stupid bit. It's such a stupid bit. What are you talking about? The light smattering of applause tells me that the people love that bit. The light smattering. Oh, there it is.
Starting point is 00:22:00 There it is. For those listening at home, Mike threw up a Fat Thor picture. Oh, that's Josh Jacobs. I, Mike threw up a Fat Thor picture. Oh, that's Josh Jacobs. I told you. Wow. Fat Thor is on the screen. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:22:15 I just wonder if Fat Thor is going to keep the ADP in the second round. You're spreading this dirty rumor about Josh Jacobs. He's in great shape. 2,000 yards. I'm just asking questions, guys. To be fair and to be honest, which I don't think, Mike, you're being. Well, Fat Thor's still up there. Well, my point is if you watch the whole movie, Fat Thor gets in shape and dominates. Oh, that's true.
Starting point is 00:22:35 So he's fine. Okay. Josh Jacobs is back. My Dynasty team is breathing easier. Yeah. Who's got Josh Jacobs in their Dynasty roster? Congratulations. And who overpaid for Samir White when they were a little scared? Yeah. Who's got Josh Jacobs in their dynasty roster? Congratulations. And who overpaid for Samir White when
Starting point is 00:22:47 they were a little scared? Yeah. Just you. Just me. Alright, that was today's News and Notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. It is time for some bold predictions. Whether in the game or Or some bold predictions. designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters.
Starting point is 00:23:28 Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. Ridiculously bold predictions they didn't know what was going to happen no that i mean that's a they didn't know we were about to get spicy no real spicy and one of the things about this show and we love doing this show live we've done the show live a handful of times one of the things that this show, and we love doing this show live. We've done this show live a handful of times. One of the things that's great about it is it's always been perfectly accurate. Yeah. Every one of our bold predictions historically have come true.
Starting point is 00:24:12 I crushed last year. Did you? Yeah. Let me guess. You remember. Yeah. It was Chris Olave over Michael Thomas. That worked out.
Starting point is 00:24:21 Okay. To be fair, we've had some. Oh, yeah. I said Brady was going to stink. We actually did. We have had some hits on this. Wow. To be fair, we've had some. Oh, yeah, I said Brady was going to stink. We actually did. We have had some hits on this. Historically speaking, I've called a lot of teams that implode. You had Austin Eckler's breakout when he was unknown.
Starting point is 00:24:37 We've had some hits, and that's all we'll focus on because these are both. We're trying to be spicy here, people. Yeah. So what is happening? We're singing a song? Like, is there a flash mob happening right now? I can't tell because I can't see them. You're up first, Andy?
Starting point is 00:25:00 I'm going to go first with my super accurate, guaranteed, correct, remember you heard it here, bold prediction. We're on the wrong coast. This team hasn't had a quarterback with a winning record in more than a decade. This team, in their 64 years of history, has had one head coach who stayed more than one season and had a winning record. This team has been a basement dweller.
Starting point is 00:25:27 They've been easy fodder for the jokes. But the New York Jets are going to win the Super Bowl! They're going to win it all! Yes. Yes. Fill your hearts you mean yes i ain't no panda bear i just tell the truth it's on it's on the newspaper all right all right let's okay all right let's hear. First, there's no way to overcome that reaction.
Starting point is 00:26:05 Second of all, what this means for fantasy, when they win the Super Bowl, is that every single one of their key players is going to outperform their ADP, which means Aaron Rodgers in the 10th round with the darkness retreats, draft him. You wait, you draft him. Dalvin Cook, 7th round pick, draft him. They think I'm in a darkness retreat.
Starting point is 00:26:40 No, we're supporting you right now. Thank you, Mike. Let's go. I didn't realize there was this much Jets hate. I told you we're on the wrong now thank you mike let's go i didn't realize there was this much jets hate i told you we're on the wrong let me ask you this hold on hold on did you hate the red socks before they won anything we hate them to this day all they did was lose did you hate the cubs when they had no World Series? Also, Jason. They just hate out here.
Starting point is 00:27:08 Sidebar. I'm cutting Andy out of this conversation. Who is he talking about? I have no idea who these teams are. It's baseball. These people love baseball. To answer your question, no, I did not hate these random made-up names you're talking about. The Dragons. Did you hate the Dragons?
Starting point is 00:27:28 Yeah. Look, you can even, and I'm going to tell you, Mike, who's your nasty boy at the end of the draft? Fergalicious. It's Jake Ferguson, right? You know who else is a nasty boy? Tyler Conklin. Tyler Conklin's a nasty boy. Hold on.
Starting point is 00:27:47 Do you want to win your league or do you want to just boo? See, this is the problem. Yeah, they just want to boo. We don't want to win the league. They want to do both. That's fair. Okay, fine. I'm going to skip to a wild stat that will persuade you.
Starting point is 00:28:04 Probably not. But I'm going to try. Over the last three years, I don't know if you guys even know this, an Aaron Rodgers pass attempt is worth more fantasy points than any other quarterback at all. Over the last what timeline? Over the last three years. And that includes. Boo your facts.
Starting point is 00:28:24 Boo facts. Oh, now we're talking. That includes last year in Green Bay, which you did not enjoy that experience. No, I didn't. Aaron Rodgers per pass attempt, 0.69 fantasy points. Nice. Yeah, thank you. Better than Mahomes, better than Allen, better than Cousins, better than Mahomes better than Allen better than Cousins better than everybody which means
Starting point is 00:28:47 when they go on this Super Bowl run you're going to want to put them on your team and the NFL wants them to succeed I'm going to tell you that it's not just the hard knocks bump okay and I know I know you disagree but they've been given the best rest edge, which is the amount of cumulative days rest, which is very indicative of teams that outperform their win total. In their history, in the entire NFL, you don't get to the Super Bowl unless you're projected to win more than nine games. Their win total is at nine and a half.
Starting point is 00:29:22 Ipso facto, they win the Super Bowl. Yes, of course, of course. Remember where you were. Okay? And I want letters from each of you when they win. All right. Brooks will get you the address. Apologies from all of you.
Starting point is 00:29:41 So am I up? Yeah, please. Yeah. Go for it up? Yeah, please. Yeah. Go for it, Mike. Be bold, but not that bold. I am calling my bold prediction the changing of the guard at the wide receiver position. It piggybacks a little bit off of you
Starting point is 00:29:55 because I have three sophomore wide receivers in my bold prediction. Three sophomore wide receivers finishing in the top 12. We're going to start at mild, and we're going to work our way to spicy. Yeah, I would start mild with these guys, honestly. They could not handle that.
Starting point is 00:30:15 So here's the deal. Since 2015, we've had three sophomore wide receivers in the top 12 only twice. We had it in 2015, which included – you guys remember when Al Robinson was good? That was a great time to be alive. Where's all the Rams fans at? That was a great time to be alive. Mike, I just came off the booze.
Starting point is 00:30:36 I'm sorry. I'm sorry to open that wound. And last year we had four. So I'm going to start at the top. Garrett Wilson. He's being drafted. Yeah. Cheer for drafted. Yeah. Cheer for me.
Starting point is 00:30:49 Yes. Just so you know, he plays for the Jets. He plays for the team I just talked about. Now we remove that. Yeah. So here's the deal. Great point, Mike. Garrett Wilson, this is really mild because he's being drafted at wide receiver 10.
Starting point is 00:31:05 Yeah, so your take is he's going to be good, real bold. He's got Aaron Rodgers. I don't have to convince you. I don't have to convince you. Second one, my guy, Christian Olave. You're just saying names of good players. Andy, we haven't gotten to the third name yet so that one they might not cheer here's the thing is adp wide receiver 12 i don't have
Starting point is 00:31:31 to convince y'all that we believe in chris olave and what he's going to do olave targeted on 27.6 percent of his routes second highest among rookies since 2014 he's the the dude. Here we go. Grab the Pepto-Bismol. Drake London. Drake London finishes inside the top 12. No, he doesn't. And here is my case. Here is my, let me make my case. Okay.
Starting point is 00:32:04 Remember where Drake London, remember where we came from drafted eighth overall drake london was drafted in front of garrett wilson he was drafted in front of chris alabe and he did everything that he could as a rookie behind the scenes metrics 29.3 percent target share that is the highest among rookie wide receivers since 2014. What was that percentage? Above 29% target share. Okay, on the three passes per game. I will get there.
Starting point is 00:32:34 Okay. And I get it. Marcus Mariota was the guy last year for most of it. It didn't look great. They averaged just over 24 pass attempts per game. Disgusting. Well, what happens historically when teams pass the ball that little? Since 2017, we've had –
Starting point is 00:32:52 We cry. Oh, yeah. We try our backs on Kyle Pitts. We have those no Sean Moreno tears. Oh, the big tear? The tears that – it's inhuman how large the tears are. But since 2017, 13 teams averaging fewer than 30 pass attempts per game the next year. All but two, all but two increased their passing volume.
Starting point is 00:33:17 And the average increase was an extra 51 pass attempts per season. Oh, dang. I wanted that stat to be better. It's not the Tom Brady Buccaneers. So just an example, Seattle, right? 2021, they were throwing the ball 29 times a game. We're all out because it's Miley Cyrus is the quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks. The big hits have not come out yet.
Starting point is 00:33:44 He's still in the Hannah Montana phase. They jumped from 29 to almost 34 pass attempts a game. That's actually a big increase. Let me ask you this, right? Last year, last year, and moving forward, do you project that San Francisco is going to have good fantasy wide receivers? Uh-oh. Because they only threw the ball 29 and a half times per game.
Starting point is 00:34:11 Uh-oh. Atlanta was at 24. Okay? That's not a – so I'm saying we can absolutely get an increase for the Atlanta Falcons. I'm projecting that they will have one. Drake London saw 117 targets. That turned into 866 receiving yards.
Starting point is 00:34:27 He was historically good. Since 2014, we've had 11 rookie wide receivers hit 50 receptions and the yards per route run that Drake London was at. Mike, if you don't mind, Jason, can we chat? Let's sidebar. I'm tuned out. Earmuffs. Do you think he believes in Desmond Ritter?
Starting point is 00:34:46 I do not think he believes in Desmond Ritter. You're supposed to put your hand on the other. You put the hand on the other side. Yeah, I can see your lips. I do not think he believes in Desmond Ritter. Okay, all right. Never mind. Go on, Mike.
Starting point is 00:34:54 But here's the thing. Those marks that I told you, 50 receptions in the yards per route run that Drake London saw, sophomore year, 8 of the 11, 8 of the 11, top 12 the very next year. And the three that didn't, you know the three that didn't? Mike Evans, who had 1,200 yards that year, but only three touchdowns. Debo Samuel,
Starting point is 00:35:16 a big fan, he got hurt. He got hurt. You like Debo? Do we like Debo in this room? Yeah, we're too far south for Debo. We're too far south. Too far south for Debo. But the point is on Debo, he got hurt. It didn't happen. The very next year, wide receiver two. Terry McLaurin, 1,100 yards, but only four touchdowns. So that's the only reason that they did not make it into the top 12. But all three really good wide receivers. Absolutely. That's
Starting point is 00:35:41 the point. And Drake London, Drake just watched Drake London play football. He is very, very good. We're all too far down on the Atlanta situation. And we're too cemented in to the idea that, well, they're a run first team. What if they throw it a little bit more? And those numbers I talked about, we've seen the increase. The average increase is 50 pass attempts per year. You ever been around somebody that's about to go
Starting point is 00:36:07 through what you've already gone through? This is a Kyle Pitts take. I was you, man. I was you a year ago. Right-eyed and bushy-tailed. Talking into cameras about Kyle Pitts and how their passing
Starting point is 00:36:24 volume was going to go up. Oh, to be young again. I will say this. I think you bring up compelling arguments for the talent of Drake London, and I buy into those. I don't know if I believe Desmond Ritter can hit wide receivers regularly enough downfield.
Starting point is 00:36:45 Now, obviously, I love Bijon, but Bijon's passes are like, here you go, just a little scooch. Just tap that pass. You got to tap that pass. Tap that pass. You got to tap the pass. Really, I mean, let's be honest. Your bold prediction is that Drake London is going to deliver
Starting point is 00:37:02 for fantasy football. That is my bold prediction. And then your my guy is going to be good, too, and Garrett Wilson, who for the future Super Bowl champs scored a touchdown tonight. Yes, he did. From Sir Aaron Rodgers. Sir? Did he get knighted?
Starting point is 00:37:16 Did I miss something? He did. He did. You sound like you're from London. Shout out to. Oh, yes. Shout out to someone who traveled that far. The doctor.
Starting point is 00:37:31 Hey, if you've been listening to this podcast for any length of time. The man, the myth, the legend that started the bonjour bit. Nine years ago. I started it, but he's fromland and he flew in just for this show just for this show so so if you're listening to the podcast after it releases monday and you're like oh man i'm in nebraska that's weak shame on you your stuff's weak all Shame on you. Your stuff's weak. All right, Jason. All right. Let's hear your madness. I am up, and I'm going to talk about.
Starting point is 00:38:09 We're going with this one? We're going with this one. I'm going to talk about running back. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. You haven't said it yet. Correct.
Starting point is 00:38:17 You have a chance to pivot. I would never. Okay. Because this one is so clear and obvious it's gonna happen i'm saying that the running back 44 right now on average will finish as a top 20 running back this season and it is than Cartavious Tank Bigsby. Top 20 running back this season. This is – Can I ask you a question? You can ask.
Starting point is 00:38:55 One, that's pretty spicy. Yeah. Two, how much of this is because his name isn't Cameron and it's Tank? Look, Tank's going to get it done. Okay? Tank is a dude. When your nickname is Tank, you're just set up for success. Yeah, you're either tiny or you're a tank.
Starting point is 00:39:16 Yeah. And Tank Bigsby's body is ready for an NFL workload. Whoa. He's 6'2", 15. A real 2'15". Yeah, a real 2'15". He's not foot 215. A real 215. Yeah, a real 215. He's not like soaking wet 215.
Starting point is 00:39:40 Oh, yes. I didn't even ask for it. But now I do. Hold on. I rip off a killer zinger and people start chanting jason yeah the people know keep going it's because of that yeah yeah so here here's here's my belief in tank bigsby first of all coming out before the nfl draft he was my running back four in the in the pre-NFL draft scouting process. You guys know I love Tank Bigsby.
Starting point is 00:40:08 I love Zach Charbonnet. And then, of course, Jameer Gibbs is a machine and electric. Agreed. My next favorite running back was Tank Bigsby. Why? Because he's got ideal fantasy football body weight. He has ideal time. He runs a 4-4-5 at 215. That's what we want. I love size-speed combinations. He has ideal time. He runs a 4-4-5 at 2-15.
Starting point is 00:40:25 I love size-speed combinations. He catches the ball. He caught 30 passes in his final year at Auburn in the SEC. That's a great number for college. He's also really good. He's a beef boy.
Starting point is 00:40:40 He's a beef boy. He's a beef boy. He's really good. Not a nitty-bitty boy. I don't know how many people in this room or listening have had the chance to watch preseason. But if you watch Tank Bigsby this preseason, he has straight-up dominated. There's literally not one play you can show me where he didn't do something better than what should have been done on that play.
Starting point is 00:41:09 Even the fumble tonight? He fumbled today. I haven't seen that one. We're here recording. But after that, he ripped off another big run and had a great game. There's only one play you can show me from preseason. It's the fumble. But he is really good.
Starting point is 00:41:28 And here's what we know about Doug Peterson. Doug Peterson has always run a committee, wants to run a committee. At the end of last year, he talked about getting Travis Etienne some help. He wants to keep Travis Etienne healthy. Travis Etienne is an electric, explosive athlete. But he has his own problems. Okay, despite his explosive plays, but he has his own problems. Despite his explosive plays, he's not a tackle breaker. He was stuffed for three or fewer yards at the sixth highest rate among running backs, and on 35 receptions, Etienne forced a missed tackle. One, single, uno. He
Starting point is 00:42:02 forced one missed tackle on 35 receptions he was also unfortunately very inefficient near the goal line 14 carries inside the five only three rushing touchdowns the depth chart behind etn was just a bunch of jags and i don't mean jaguars yeah i mean you're correct in both of those yeah all of those things i mean You're correct in both of those things I mean just a Guy a Jag Jemichael Hasty is You don't have to name them now that's just rude
Starting point is 00:42:32 Yeah I'm sorry I'm sorry Mrs. Hasty I was rude to your son You know like if I Saw him in life I'd be like That's not just a guy that's a man Yeah But when I see him on an nfl field i'm like yeah okay go go sit on the bench when i'm safe on my couch also dougie doug peterson here
Starting point is 00:42:53 i don't know yeah you looked down the crowd like he was here i don't know if doug peterson's here oh no they had a preseason game tonight yeah yeah he's not gonna be here but when you're listening later this week he'd skip that for the show right he could please don't play jamaical hasty and i mean that only for fantasy purposes of both etn and tank bigsby but tank bigsby is really good they brought him in and they're going to run a committee here that's what they're going to do i'm not like i'm not sure they're going to have both of these players very involved. Travis Etienne's going to get goal line opportunities. Tank Bigsby's not coming in and stealing all the goal line opportunities. Travis Etienne is going to get work in the passing game. Tank's not going to get it
Starting point is 00:43:33 all, but Tank is going to get goal line opportunities. He is going to be involved in the passing game. He is going to get a lot of carries, and he's going to get enough usage with his talent and that offense to be a top 20 running back this year. And you can get him as the running back 44. Every single year, there are multiple, at least two top 24 rookie running backs. On average, there are three. Some years, like just a couple years ago, 2020, there were five rookie running backs that were in the top 24. Tank Bigsby is that dude.
Starting point is 00:44:04 He's looked great. He's going to earn his way on the field he's going to break tackles he's going to score touchdowns he's going to catch the ball and then as an insurance option I don't want Travis Etienne to go down he's on my dynasty roster Etienne have a great season make you feel like you can like tank and you don't have to dislike Etienne no you got him on your dynasty team look I think both of these players are actually good. This is not an anti-ETN. This is not an ETN gets injured. Where's ETN right now?
Starting point is 00:44:31 This is too high. I agree he's probably too high right now for where he's drafted. 13 or something? But this is a Lindell White and Chris Johnson situation. Chris Johnson comes in, rips off 1,200 yards, nine touchdowns. You know what Lindell White had that same year? Fifteen touchdowns. Yeah, but he had them on 15 yards.
Starting point is 00:44:49 This is a Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara situation. Beef boy. Beef boy. Yeah, that's a beef boy. That's a beef boy. That's a beef man. And he was – wasn't he USC? You don't know?
Starting point is 00:45:03 I would think Los Angeles would be be aware so that is my prediction and i you know i think some people will look at it and say man that's really spicy the running back 44 is going to finish top 20 i think other people smart people be like of course he is jason of course he is well they chanted for you during it. I expect one more crowd. I expect one more today. Oh, there it is. It's over. I expect 17 more. You don't.
Starting point is 00:45:33 I mean, the problem now is that I know what your second bold prediction is. Yeah, baby. You're going to love it. And you are going to be the favorite, not just because you have a t-shirt cannon that you said you were going to buy with your own money, but then you used the company credit card. I did not. I used your money. Our money.
Starting point is 00:45:51 Our money, yeah. I paid for a third of it. Yeah, you did. You did. My second bold prediction. This is hot. It's not a team you hate winning the Super Bowl. It's actually, which, I i mean that was a surprise reaction
Starting point is 00:46:07 um because the jets haven't been in the playoffs but listen we haven't had a 15 touchdown year from a wide receiver since cup in 21 and it was cooper cup thank you okay he's good hey we're back i see cooper cup jerseys we're back but I see Cooper Cup jerseys everywhere. We're back. But here's the thing. We haven't had three wide receivers do it in the same season since 2007. That is a 16-year wait, and it ends this year. Three wide outs with 15 or more touchdowns. Now, see, they're booing because one of them isn't Cooper Cup. Okay.
Starting point is 00:46:51 Okay. We've got some people. How's that feel? It feels great. Yeah, it feels real good. Honestly, much better than the boos. Am I chopped liver? What am I doing wrong?
Starting point is 00:47:02 We'll see. We'll see, Drake London. Here's the deal. Three wideouts. 15 touchdowns for Drake London. It's too late. It's too late. I don't believe you.
Starting point is 00:47:16 Three wideouts, 15-plus touchdowns each. Jamar Chase, DK Metcalf. Hold for applause. AJ Brown. Okay. We got some big AJ Brown fans in the house. It is crazy to me. The Eagles fans are like a virus.
Starting point is 00:47:35 They're everywhere. It's crazy to me that you have three wide receivers getting 15 touchdowns and it's not Cooper Cup and it's not Tyree Kill. No. That's not Justin Jefferson. It's going to be, and it's not Tyreek Hill. No. That's – It's not Justin Jefferson.
Starting point is 00:47:46 It's going to be a legendary prediction. Let me ask you real quick. If, let's say, three wide receivers score 15. I'll take partial credit, yes. But it's Chase Hill. You'll take credit? Yes. I will show the clips from the show without the names.
Starting point is 00:48:01 Look, I would. Yeah, you would. Three wide receivers justin jefferson hey i could do this for me cooper there have been 17 15 plus receiving touchdown years since 2000 and some wild names randy moss is three of them cool three of those seasons including what 25 that was a good year um but braylon edwards anybody remember braylon edwards oh yeah how about duane bowe we had jordy nelson who did it on 96 targets remember i said those are valuable yep here's the thing 76 of those six foot one inch or taller oh no so you gotta be big gotta be strong gotta be beefy gotta be a
Starting point is 00:48:48 beef boy um the nfl it's that bustling diner and you want people to cook up those delicious gourmet touchdown burgers for you are delicious and you gotta find these chefs that can cook them up. Jamar Chase is really the easiest one to project. Now, I don't know if you know this. Who do you think is the number one, according to Vegas, in terms of odds to have double-digit touchdowns? Is it Jamar? Yeah, it's Jamar Chase. Okay, all right.
Starting point is 00:49:19 It's Jamar Chase. Cooper Cup is second in that list. But Jamar Chase, literally, he's on pace for a touchdown every 11.9 targets. And that's 15 every 180. And he was on pace for 190 targets last year. So his basic being a part of the NFL math adds up to 15-plus in a season. He's got 22 of them in the last two years. Check that box.
Starting point is 00:49:46 But what about the old teammates, you know, the ones that took those pictures together where it made A.J. Brown look small, but he wasn't? Former college teammates, Ole Miss. Here's the thing. When you were a true alpha in year four, which I'm defining that as being over eight targets in a game, which both of those guys are if you do it again the next year and you're over six one your path to 15 touchdowns is actually it's pretty simple because anybody who does that two straight years you're four year five
Starting point is 00:50:16 eight plus targets you average 12 touchdowns right you average 12 touchdowns the next year Cooper Cup did it Devante Adams did it Hopkins Devontae Adams did it. Hopkins did it. Des Bryant did it, which is kind of my comp. People like Des Bryant. People hate Des Bryant. Continue. Yeah, yeah. Look, I'm going to be brief with these two guys,
Starting point is 00:50:43 but DK Metcalf led the NFL. 21 end zone targets last year. We went back. We watched every single one of them. He only had six touchdowns on them. That's going to swing the other direction. He is the Des Bryant of this generation. The end zone targets, no JSN, I'm sorry to say, to start the year most likely.
Starting point is 00:51:02 And then A.J. Brown is really close to what jamar chase did he averages a touchdown every 12.6 targets jamar chase was just around 11 right behind him he's got tyler lockett to compete with but or i'm sorry he's aj brown's got davante smith to compete with but he is a big man 3 15plus touchdown wide receivers this year. That's a lot. Book it. That's a lot. Cooking them juicy burgers.
Starting point is 00:51:31 I think the bold part to me, even though it hasn't been done in, what did you say, 16 years, that's pretty crazy. Like, that's a bold prediction. Just having three? Just having three in general but the fact that you specifically named the three yeah that seems just like calling your own shot that you didn't need to do i know it was dumb um like uh babe ruth you don't have to point yeah you could just go crush the ball but when he crushes it to where he pointed that's a baseball reference
Starting point is 00:52:02 yeah and he also called me Babe Ruth. I like that. Can I leave for yours? Seriously? Like, do I have to stay here? Oh, I forgot about this one. Here we go, ladies and gentlemen. You want the t-shirt cannon? You could just point it right at Mike.
Starting point is 00:52:18 No, no. I'll point it at myself. Here's the deal. Jason had a top 20 running back from the depths. Boo this man. I have a running back who's going in the fifth round right now who is going to finish as a top 10 running back because he has not only one strong leg.
Starting point is 00:52:42 He has two strong legs. Yes. Feed me. Oh, they don't like it. They don't like it. J.K. Dobbins, top ten fantasy running back. Have you been drinking? Not yet.
Starting point is 00:53:07 Here's the deal. So let's look at last year. And you saved, to be fair, I went on a rant against J.K. Dobbins. Yes. Which I thought was just like an incredible argument, very persuasive. I listened to some of it. You listened to some of it. And you held back.
Starting point is 00:53:24 I did. Because you knew you were going to be here tonight. Yes, I held back most of the argument last year. Let's talk about the story of J.K. Dobbins. Last year, coming off the injury, gets into Twitter beef with Ian Rappaport, promises that he'll be there day one for training camp. With two legs. With two strong legs.
Starting point is 00:53:47 It doesn't happen. No. misses just kidding he misses the beginning of the year and he comes back and it is bad right gets on the field week three for about four games he averages 3.5 yards per carry just this is not this is not the jk dobbins that we saw as a rookie. Gets a cleanup surgery, and he heals up. Takes his time, and he comes back, and we have four more games of J.K. Dobbins. He was the running back 14, averaging seven yards per carry. His first game back. His first game back. Come on, Azam and Dynasty over there. he was a top 10 running back his first game back over that month he averaged 100 rushing yards per game and you might say well look i need a pass catching running back we have to have that for the upside and yes for the true yeah i'd like
Starting point is 00:54:38 that yes that's why we've i stopped the number at top 10 I couldn't get any spicier than that. Looked back over the past five years. Here's the guys that finished in the top 15 and what they did. Mixon, Chris Carson, Nick Chubb, Cordero Patterson. That was a fun year. And Jamal Williams. Their averages over that time, we're talking just over 1,000 rushing yards and 11.6 total touchdowns. That's the total that you need to make it to the top 10. And you're like, 1,000? 1,000 rushing yards and 11.6 total touchdowns. That's the total that you need to make it to the top 10.
Starting point is 00:55:07 And you're like, 1,000? 1,000. And then 11.6 touchdowns? Correct. Total touchdowns. And you're like, but Lamar Jackson, he's a running quarterback. He's going to steal all the touchdowns. Is he?
Starting point is 00:55:21 Is he? You sure about that? You sure about that? You sure about that? You sure about that? Because over the last five You sure about that? You sure about that? Because over the last five years, teams with a quarterback who rushed for 700 yards, I'd call that a prolific running quarterback. Sure.
Starting point is 00:55:33 Their running backs had 15 total touchdowns on average, and four of those teams were Lamar Jackson teams, where the Ravens running backs averaged 16 total touchdowns. Can I tell you something real quick? Please. I did see this part in your notes and I totally ignored it. I was not a fan. Did you think I would ignore it?
Starting point is 00:55:56 No. Yeah. I tried to delete it. So look, double digits. That's what we need from JK Dobbins. There's all the Todd Monken stuff. Of course, we talk about, we love the speed of the game, higher pass rate. Well, what did Todd Monken do for Cleveland for Nick Chubb?
Starting point is 00:56:11 Well, Nick Chubb went from 192 carries to 298. Nick Chubb saw 49 targets that year. Is Nick Chubb a pass catcher? No, he is not. No, but the year that he had Tom Monken, 49 targets. Now, I'm not saying that J.K. Dobbins is Nick Chubb, because then I'd be like,
Starting point is 00:56:32 J.K. Dobbins is going to be a top three running back, but I stopped it at a top 10. Here's what I admit. Dobbins in the top 10, it's spicy, it is a projection, but he's really freaking good. Players since the NFL merger.
Starting point is 00:56:48 I thought you were going to just say players that are really good historically have been good. And in my opinion, he's very good since the NFL merger. So I went back. You went to the merger. I went into the time machine. What year was that? The 70s? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:57:04 Who pays attention? Running backs with 130-plus attempts who averaged over six yards per carry in a season. Barry Sanders. Okay, good guy. Excuse me, Mike. The NFL merger was June 8, 1966. Continue. Oh, okay.
Starting point is 00:57:21 So even further back than I thought. It was super far ago. No one remembers the 60s. Before the beginning of time. Here's those names. Barry Sanders, Adrian Peterson, OJ Simpson, Jamal Charles, CJ Spiller. CJ Spiller is the outlier.
Starting point is 00:57:38 Move on. Move on. We're past OJ. Mercury Morris. To his credit and mine, I don't know who he is. Great name though. Yeah. Oh, it truly is. And JK Dobbins. And you might say, Mike, 130 attempts. That's quite the convenient cutoff point. And you're right for a bold prediction show that you're certainly is because all those guys had way more than 130 carries. But let's talk about, let's go to the pass catching. Mark Ingram, running back eight in 2019 with 29 targets.
Starting point is 00:58:13 J.K. Dobbins comes to town, and those targets absolutely vanished, and Dobbins had 24 as a rookie. And again, Nick Chubb with Todd Monken, 49 targets. And you're like, you guys even remember this? You know DeJuan DeFre Freeman was on the Baltimore Ravens? Oh, I remember, yeah. 42 targets for Devonta Freeman, who was washed at that point. He was very clean.
Starting point is 00:58:36 Yes. Just like head-to-toe sponge bath, taken care of every day. Just premium soap. Soups washed. But the point is, it's not actually feeling no you don't you don't wash ghosts it's me adam feeling hold on hold on i'm peeling back the curtain for a second for me first sound check he did this for like an hour he did like an hour of his adam Thielen impersonation. It was good. My bones are brittle, boys. Don't throw me the ball.
Starting point is 00:59:09 He did score yesterday. Yeah, he had a very good game. Me and that guy love him. The point is we've seen a running back for this Baltimore Ravens team in the old busted offense get 42 targets. So 42 targets is not impossible for J.K. Dobbins to unlock some of that upside. Plus, I just need 1,100 on the ground for a player who's crazy talented, like I said, in a month when he finally had two – well, actually, no.
Starting point is 00:59:37 That was one strong leg. One strong leg averaging seven yards per carry. He's a great player. He's going to be on a great offense, and I think that top 10 bold prediction is in the range of outcomes. What do you think, Jay? Pretty stupid, huh? Yeah, there it is.
Starting point is 00:59:56 There it is. He's so handsome. He's so cool. Oh, the chance stopped immediately. He's so handsome. He's so cool. They they're like I don't want him to think that everyone be quiet um you know I I do believe J.K. Dobbins is an actually really talented running back I do believe in the Baltimore Ravens offense there's a lot to be scared of when it comes to the mobile quarterback, the passing volume. But I want to bet on the Ravens' offense and the talent
Starting point is 01:00:29 and actually the depth chart. Justice Hill's had a great preseason. Don't scare me. I mean, Justice Hill is irrelevant. What about Melvin Gordon? Yeah, like J.K. Dobbins is head and shoulders above everyone else in that room, and I think that if they're playing fast, which is the Monken way, you just don't have guys come out as often.
Starting point is 01:00:52 I think J.K. Dobbins is going to be on the field a lot. So, I mean, obviously it's bold to be like top ten. I wouldn't see that as the probable outcome, but I'm in on Dobbins. Fifteen touchdowns and he'll do it. 15 touchdowns and he'll do it. 11.6 and he'll do it. Listen, I will say this. I had the decency in all of my anti-Todd Monken, Ravens, hype train situation to not bring up the Cleveland years
Starting point is 01:01:18 because that was a Freddy Kitchens offense, and then you used that for Monken? Sorry. He was there. Jason, it's Panda Bear time. Actually, it's not. This is just what the heart wants and what the heart believes. Going into the My Guys episode, and you guys can attest,
Starting point is 01:01:39 I had such a hard time because here's who I actually wanted my three My Guys to be. Oh, now he wants credit for four guys. Look, I know this. I really wanted it, but I couldn't allow myself to do it. You're the one in charge, chicken. This is what happened. You guys were there. This is a real story.
Starting point is 01:01:58 I wanted Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, and Mark Andrews, but I didn't want three onesies. And so I took out Justin Herbert so that I could talk about his true ceiling on a bold prediction because my bold prediction right now is that this season, Justin Herbert has 50 total touchdowns and finishes as the quarterback number one. What? They're standing up, Jason. Yeah, they're standing up.
Starting point is 01:02:26 No, not that guy. He's leaving. He's leaving. That guy's leaving. But to be fair, he is still standing. That's a guy that had Justin Herbert last year, and he walked off. I've heard enough. All right, Justin Herbert, 50 total touchdowns.
Starting point is 01:02:42 50 total touchdowns. That finishes as the quarterback number one. That's not. No. You didn't add touchdowns to that drink? This is from the Russian motherland. All right. How many people have had 50 total all-purpose touchdowns in the past?
Starting point is 01:03:01 There have been four. Tom Brady. You didn't even give us a chance to answer it it was rhetorical bro Peyton Manning Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers and the fifth time happens this season those are dream seasons those are seasons that win fantasy championships Andy do you remember personally the Peyton Manning 50 touchdown season? Well, let me ask Mike. Do you remember the Peyton Manning 50 touchdown season? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:03:29 Why do you guys remember that season? Because I lost in the championship. Why did you lose in the championship? Because Peyton Manning probably threw eight touchdowns. That was fun. That was a really good time. When you have those type of seasons. How is that possible?
Starting point is 01:03:43 Yeah. It's crazy. those are outlier seasons but they are special and there is a mixture happening here for Justin Herbert both good and bad that I think is a perfect fantasy recipe for success the bad is what happened last year last year he threw 25 total touchdowns. So you're looking at double. I'm looking at double what he did last year. Last year he threw the third most passes in NFL history, 477,
Starting point is 01:04:14 and somehow only threw 25 touchdowns. And you say, well, you know, maybe that's outlier. It's an outlier for him. He came in and threw 31 touchdowns as a rookie. He is good at throwing touchdowns. How many is 31 as a rookie? Oh, I don't know. 31.
Starting point is 01:04:29 The all-time NFL record. No one has ever done that except for Justin Herbert. Andy was right. 31's 31. 31 is the answer. Great answer, Andrew. Thank you. He is really good.
Starting point is 01:04:43 I don't think I need to make the don't need to make the case no you watch the film and you go man that guy's good quarterbacks with 12 000 passing yards through their first three seasons peyton manning andrew luck justin herbert end of list he's that good here's what's crazy is if you believe it it's your your bold prediction, so you're against the odds. But you've got to remember Demarius Thomas and Eric Decker and Julius Thomas and how good the other weapons were. Could they all be good if your dream comes true? That is the point.
Starting point is 01:05:17 The point is he has the weapons and the cast to do it. No one has ever done it without a smorgasbord of guys who can score touchdowns. Peyton had it. Aaron Rodgers had it. And truly, Justin Herbert has it this year. Last year, you want to know why he only threw 25 touchdowns? It's because he lost half the season of Keenan Allen. He lost a quarter of the season of Mike Williams.
Starting point is 01:05:43 He lost the entire season of Jalen Guyton. He broke his ribs in week two. He didn't run for any touchdowns, which that's part of this. It's not just passing. This is all-purpose touchdowns. He averages four touchdowns a year. He had 300 rushing yards the year before on the ground. He had zero last year. That is legitimately a pretty outlier. 14 quarterbacks had 50 rushing attempts last year. He's the only one who didn't have a rushing touchdown. He will have rushing touchdowns added to his list. If he gets up near 7% touchdown rate with Kellen Moore, with Mike Williams, with Keenan Allen, with Austin Eckler, a-round draft pick in Quinton Johnston, a great red zone option in Gerald Everett.
Starting point is 01:06:27 You still have Josh Palmer. You have Jalen Guyton. I don't even know what they're cheering for. I think that was a Gerald Everett cheer. Oh, God. All right. Yeah, yeah. What's that?
Starting point is 01:06:41 What's that, baby? For those at home, Jason is now arming a t-shirt cannon. The first ever on podcast recording explosion of a t-shirt cannon. You didn't put a t-shirt in it, Jason. Jay, there was no t-shirt in there. You didn't put a t-shirt in the t-shirt cannon. You left it out. I was sitting on the t-shirt
Starting point is 01:07:06 Yes I need more Jasons I need more Jasons He shot nothing Good Oh this is good audio This is good audio Let me get the mic
Starting point is 01:07:22 The mic picked it up. Is that how your prediction's going to go? No, no, it's not. The limp? So, I think with... Oh, they booed the teacher. You're going to have to load up later. I am really upset right now.
Starting point is 01:07:39 Continue. After this show, I am going to really cost some insurance money with this. I'm going to load it with this I'm gonna load it I'm gonna crank it um so I I think with Kellen Moore's arrival um there is get back into your point there is a path to it and I I did the math because I I thought about this beforehand I was like is this actually doable is this is this actually realistic can it happen and obviously for it to happen everyone has has to have a good season. But Big Mike, he's had double-digit touchdowns before.
Starting point is 01:08:08 Give him 10. Keenan Allen last year, second half of the season, he was on pace for 8.5. Give him 8. Okay. Austin Eckler has averaged over the last two years, I believe, seven touchdowns. Give him six receiving touchdowns. Quinton Johnson is a first-round rookie. First-round rookies that play the whole season average,
Starting point is 01:08:27 I think it's 6.5 touchdowns per season. Give him six. Gerald Everett's a touchdown machine. Give him seven. Josh Palmer has averaged over the last two years four. Four rushing touchdowns is his average for Justin Herbert. If Donald Parham gets two, that means between Jalen Guyton, Isaiah Spiller, Trey McKitty, whoever, just need two more.
Starting point is 01:08:49 I mean, you realize that his sophomore season, Justin Herbert had 41 touchdowns, and then he comes out week one, looks like a superstar. Week two, loses all his weapons, breaks his ribs. He is a great value this year because he was a display. Why don't you go up to 60? If I went up to a number, Andy, you know what that number would be. 55!
Starting point is 01:09:17 Yeah. How did you not go 55? Oh my goodness gracious. I just did. I just gave a 55 shout-out. Let's move the show along. You love Justin Herbert. I hope it works out for you.
Starting point is 01:09:31 It was hard last year. The expectations were there. Before we get into the mailbag, which I hope everybody out there is ready, I do have to get one quick bonus. Jason Moore, bold prediction because historically you have picked the nfl team that is being hyped that will let everybody down yeah and you have been pretty correct on that mostly you did say it would be the beginning of the end when Brady won a title. Yes, that was.
Starting point is 01:10:08 But their fantasy options weren't all great. So do you have that team before we get into the mailbag? Yeah, so I would have gone with the Jets, right? But I wouldn't do that to you on the bold prediction where you say they win the Super Bowl. They already did it. Yeah, they shamed you. You're all going to remember, every one of you. you i was looking around and i don't think you're gonna like this team either andy but i do think that there is more fragility to a team that right now
Starting point is 01:10:33 is the i believe second highest odds to be in the super bowl they are assumed to be great all their weapons are great they are drafted to be great blah blah blah weapons are great. They are drafted to be great. I think there's a lot of fragility to the San Francisco 49ers. Wow. That's the biggest pop of the night. Yeah, because you've got we're in California. We've got lovers and haters here. Sure.
Starting point is 01:11:00 But you have a Mr. Irrelevant quarterback that isn't really proven and is also coming off of a huge elbow injury. And should something happen to him, Sam Darnold is not the answer. That is spicy. So I just think there's a lot of mouths to feed. You don't believe in Sam Darnold anymore, huh?
Starting point is 01:11:20 No, no. All right. Are we ready for the mailbag drop? We need everybody. Everybody. Al, are you ready? Lights right. Are we ready for the mailbag drop? We need everybody. Everybody. Al, are you ready? Lights up. Are we ready?
Starting point is 01:11:29 Are we ready? We're going to get the lights. Let's go. The lights on the people. Let's go. The house. Mailbag. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:11:45 Yeah. That was pretty good. Yeah. That was pretty good. Beautiful. That was awesome. Into the mailbag we go. Nice hat. Thank you. My name is Aiden.
Starting point is 01:12:00 I'm here from here in Los Angeles, California. Whose house? Anyway. whose house anyway so last year jamal williams was an rb1 in fantasy uh being the ground and pound guy for the detroit lions sure so now to bring up my my guy of the year david montgomery sir this is not your podcast because i think he has the same upside because he is an even better running back playing the same position and he's in the seventh round do you think he has that level of value and upside and if so if so or if not what yeah sure yeah no it's a good question yeah david montgomery yeah i mean the counterpart to the the uh thunder to the lightning of jameer gibbs yeah for jamal to do what he did last year,
Starting point is 01:12:45 and I'll toss to you guys for your thoughts, but you have to have one part. He's a good goal line running back. Sure. But you also have to have some luck on your side to have that many opportunities. We're not pretending Lindale White of beef boy yesteryear. He wasn't a
Starting point is 01:13:01 superstar. He had a outlier type of season. I view Jamal more that way but Montgomery's a different player I think he's probably a more well-rounded more talented back than where Jamal is in his career I don't know if you'd agree with that I put him on pretty equal footing uh Deva Montgomery has been a volume running back for fantasy purposes he's been you know fine but he's he's also been inefficient. And I think it just comes down to the luck of, like, guys don't get that many opportunities from the goal line.
Starting point is 01:13:35 And the fact that Jameer Gibbs was drafted where he is, sure, he's smaller. Montgomery projects as the goal line running back. What if they say, we're not going to run? We're going to pass because we have Jameer Gibbs. So I think that there is an opportunity. David Montgomery is a very interesting draft pick who I think is, like I like his ADP, but I'm not going Jamal for him. Yeah, when I started to stat people out for the UDK,
Starting point is 01:14:04 I was pretty bullish on David Montgomery. As time has gone on, I have cooled quite a bit because two reasons. One, I've realized the importance of really, really, really going for upside in your draft. Not just like he's going to only finish good in games he has a touchdown in, but I want someone that could just be awesome. Right where he's going is Javante Williams, is James Cook, guys who could break out, break out, not just fall into the end zone a handful of times. And the second reason is that the touchdowns for David Montgomery inside the five, he's never really been great. You know, rookie or 18 attempts,
Starting point is 01:14:41 only five touchdowns, 14 attempts, only four touchdowns 12 attempts five last year he does have a much better offensive yes a much better offensive line i do think he'll have a lot of attempts he will be the goal line back that's not jameer gibbs it's just not the type of player i want to maybe maybe jameer gibbs was the goal line back though maybe maybe i think both of them could be on the field at the same time. Good question. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Next question. All right. What do we got here? Hi there.
Starting point is 01:15:12 My name is John Ortman. Hey, John. Fellow Arizonian. Oh, I'm so sorry. A little cooler here. Yeah. So my question is, we all did hear your My Guys episode, hopefully. Everybody's heard it.
Starting point is 01:15:24 Yes. Of course. The world heard it. question is uh we all did hear your my guys episode hopefully everybody's here hit it yes of course the world hurts so my main question is from each of you who is the one player that you're drafting regardless of adp just to make sure that he is on your team okay so in 80 the question is this is an adp question who are you willing to essentially reach around? Reach one round on reach for reach for one single round. You're going to draft them earlier than other people are drafting around the ADP universe. Yeah. Stop doing that with your hand. So I'll jump in because look in the first four rounds. I don't want to reach drastically.
Starting point is 01:16:06 Agreed. For my guys, you know, like Chris Olave, I'll be really aggressive. But for me, it's – Well, they're being drafted so high already that moving up a round is kind of difficult. So, to me, like once you hit round six, go get the players that you want to get, the ones that you think have the upside. And for me, it would be Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears running back, who's going, I think, thank you, thank you, thank you.
Starting point is 01:16:35 He's going in, I think, like around the ninth, but it's like he's a starting running back. And if you went really wide receiver heavy and you're in the seventh, you're like, no, I got to start making sure I have guys who will get touches. Draft Khalil. I'll say Dalton Kincaid. Okay. Simply because if I have to draft him in the ninth instead of the
Starting point is 01:16:54 tenth, I'm getting upside maybe the number two target and I'm not drafting the kind of pedestrian numbers of like a Komet or maybe an Everett or maybe a Higbee well Everett's apparently having seven touchdowns is what I've yeah we figured that out so for me it's Kincaid I'd reach a round singular Jason um this is a player we talk about in fantasy football in
Starting point is 01:17:20 analysis stay water there's a player I was not in on in the offseason and I have completely changed she's in the fifth round right now and if I need a running back in the fourth round I'm willing to take him there to make sure I get him right now and it is surprisingly Damian Pierce okay this is a full it's a full 180 I mean I was I was really out on Damian Pierce coming in to this offseason but what we've seen from camp his utilization his talent from last year I think that a fourth round draft capital is replaceable that doesn't guarantee he's replaced and right now he's he looks like absolutely not replaced he's the guy and he's he's talented enough he's also been in on passing down so I mean if you want to talk about a guy in that fourth, fifth round that could finish as an RB1, I don't love the team,
Starting point is 01:18:11 but his talent and opportunity is there, so that would be the guy I would reach on. Thanks for the question. Thank you, gentlemen. Appreciate it. Next question. Oh, okay. Oh, the Muth is loose.
Starting point is 01:18:26 The muth. What's up, buddy? What's your name? Hey, my name's Travis. Actually, I'm from Kansas City, but I flew in from Tennessee. Awesome. I don't know if anybody else came here from very far, but I wanted to ask you guys a question. There's a guy from Scotland, so.
Starting point is 01:18:39 Scotland? Yeah. I hear there's somebody from farther. Really? Farther than Scotland? Farther than Scotland. What's farther than Scotland? I thought that's the from farther. Really? Farther than Scotland? Farther than Scotland. What's farther than Scotland? I thought that's the end of the earth.
Starting point is 01:18:49 The end of the earth? Well, we'll get there. What's your question, buddy? So when you're in a three-team keeper league, what should you look at as a draft analysis for valuing future for kind of players such as like youth, contracts, and just kind of the teams that they're on and how they'll evolve? What are the keeper penalties?
Starting point is 01:19:07 Do you pay the round you drafted them in? Do you pay ADP? Specifically in our league, we don't actually have a penalty around these keepers. It's free keepers, so you can usually look at top of the draft boards. That's how ours is as well. I'll hop in first you give absolutely zero farts um you don't care at all in a three professional advice keeper league draft derrick henry and don't worry about his next season there are so many players like a damian
Starting point is 01:19:38 pierce that will come out of nowhere that's going to crack your top three that you need draft the best players it's so rare that the three players that you think at the beginning of the year going to be your keepers end up your keepers even if you have guys that are youthful and have great potential like you end up with that changing you know trades players that you drafted later in the draft that end up developing it's just so rare to have that happen that i think over focusing on youth or like having them on your roster now do you do you get to keep them indefinitely do you have to give them back after a couple years so we don't have any restrictions based off of it so you are able to
Starting point is 01:20:14 continue for the career so like if i draft bijan i can have him for the entire life of his career sure so i want yeah bijan's a little different but like it it really doesn't bother me if in a redraft not a keeper if someone wants to call their shot and say i'm taking bjohn at the 101 i don't think it's like a ridiculous thing to do so in a in a keeper league yeah you draft someone like bjohn whenever you want all right thank you thank you guys All right. Thank you. Thank you, guys. Next and final question. It's the final question. It's an empty microphone. Who do we got, Josh?
Starting point is 01:20:53 There we go. He's approaching. We need walkout music here. Got the Keenan jersey on. All right. Before you jump in, hey, shout out to the people who have the courage to come up here. There's a spotlight on this person in front of a thousand people of their peers. So just want to say I commend the courage.
Starting point is 01:21:13 Now don't screw up. Yeah. Also, what's your dumb question? A lot of pressure. Like a million people listening. What's up, fellas? What's up? My name is Kyle.
Starting point is 01:21:22 What's up, Kyle? And my question has to do with whether or not you're comfortable with drafting multiple rookies as foundational pieces of your roster. For example, I love both Bijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs. I've drafted them as my RB1 and RB2, and part of me likes that, but part of me also wonders if that's too risky because they're both rookie running backs. So I'm curious what your guys' thoughts are on that. I mean, I would say that that really does not scare me in the slightest. People like this question.
Starting point is 01:21:56 Because, look, we've rattled off the stats of running backs with that draft capital at that age. It just works out. They both have a pass-catching superpower. So anyone, like any player both have a pass catching uh superpower so in anyone like any player can have a bad year so go for the players who can have elite years well i was just gonna say it's a lot easier with bijan and jameer gets who are both top 12 picks yes in the nfl draft so you know that they're gonna have day one opportunities traditionally some rookie running backs it takes a while.
Starting point is 01:22:25 So if you draft them to be foundational, you better have some pivot options because you might get what you wanted back half of the year. Yeah, but those are the only two foundational options in this year's draft. The next highest drafted rookie is seventh round Jordan Addison. And I am fine. If you watch our mock drafts, I load up on just rookies in general. The concept is seventh round Jordan Addison. And I am fine. Like, if you watch our mock drafts, I load up on the rookies. I will leave every single draft with four rookies.
Starting point is 01:22:52 If I can get Tank Bigsby and Kendra Miller along with a Jordan Addison and one of those two stud running backs, I'm thrilled to do that. But you wouldn't start maybe Addison and Flowers week one. No, no. If they're foundational, you might not have that chance to lock them in to start the year. Right, but if I'm drafting those two players, it's the seventh round, the ninth round. I have other players to start, and I want the upside at the end of the season that those rookies bring. And really, truly, rookie draft picks are usually where success is found.
Starting point is 01:23:24 And if they're not, I mean, most of these rookies are ninth round or later. If they don't hit, whatever, move on. But there's usually the people next to them that you're drafting that aren't rookies that you've seen for a while. They break out at a lower rate. Another way to answer it would be if you drafted Bijan first and then you're coming up on a pick. I'm not avoiding Jameer Gibbs just coming up on a pick. I'm not avoiding Jameer Gibbs just because I drafted a rookie. You're not really considering that.
Starting point is 01:23:50 Thanks for the question. Alright, we want to thank Underdog Fantasy for helping us put on this amazing event. We want to thank Spotify and the NFL this past week and for their hospitality. Got to spend some time there.
Starting point is 01:24:08 Saw SoFi for the first time. It was awesome. Working with them on a media partnership for the Dynasty Show, if you guys have checked that out. And don't go anywhere. Because if you're here in the building, we're going to come back out in a little while, do a Q&A for anybody who wants to hang around.
Starting point is 01:24:26 It's going to be a lot of fun. And for those listening at home, that Q&A is going to be part of the footcast this upcoming Thursday. It's probably time for Jason to use the t-shirt cannon again. Make sure you put a t-shirt in. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Starting point is 01:24:41 Thank you. Thank you so much, everybody. We'll be right back. Thank you for listening to another edition of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Don't forget to visit us on the web at www.thefantasyfootballers.com and follow us on Twitter at The FFBallers.

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