Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - The Overreaction Episode! + Pickens Trade Reaction - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/8

Episode Date: May 8, 2025

Fantasy Football show for May 8, 2025. Don’t freak out! Find out which situations will cause fantasy football managers to overreact in 2025! Overvalued players, hype checks, fantasy football draft traps, and more. Plus, reactions to George Pickens being traded to Dallas! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.Get the lowest price on the 2025 UDK at UltimateDraftKit.com - Instant access to the Dynasty Pass with the UDK+(00:00) Introduction(02:52) Quick Question - Abandoning kickers(08:05) NFL News(08:10) George Pickens trade(18:45) Overreactions(19:10) Breece Hall(25:41) The Bears(30:50) Abnormally high TD percentages(36:05) Saquon Barkley(41:30) Year 2 WR breakouts(50:15) Last year’s rookie classConnect with the show:Subscribe on YouTubeVisit us on the WebSupport the ShowFollow on XFollow on InstagramJoin our Discord

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Welcome in! Throat's clear today, Jay? Yeah, no, I'm doing well. Okay, all right. Forgot about that. Only one man can...

Just music is in his veins. It's like a coughing scat. Ooh, that's a good idea for this footballers. Oh yeah, there you go. All right. Thursday, May 8th, the Fantasy Footballers. Are you just gonna cough? You know it.

You just gave me permission. Welcome into today's podcast, Mike Wright, the Fantasy Hitman is here, Jason Moore, present and accounted for. I'm Andy Holloway. Got a deuces alley full of deuces. Producers. Yep.

And we have a good show for you today. We have overreactions for 2025. We're gonna talk about, I think basically two each. We'll talk about some overreactions we think might happen. We do have news. We got big news. Yes, we do. Big news to talk about and you can.

You are forgiven. Yeah, I think there's more people gonna be on my side now. I think you're right and we would be talking about George Pickens and we'll get into the big trade. Mike had just talked about him erroneously on the last show. Nobody agreed with him. You sound so foolish now if you listen to that episode. Yeah. But he knew what was coming. Yeah. He's a very wise man. Yeah, I talked exactly about how I think the trade is not gonna happen anymore. You did. But so we got a lot to go go with on today's show a reminder

You can watch the show youtube.com slash the fantasy footballers Make sure you subscribe make sure if you are just getting back into fantasy Catching up on everything you click that follow button on Spotify or Apple so that the latest episodes show up in your pocket that'd be cool and That'll get you tuned in for everything that you need. A reminder, we are two shows a week through the rest of May and June. And then we move to three shows in July and five shows a week, August through December. Oh, yes. And if you want an extra extra show every week, all year long. The footcast comes out every Thursday. It

is for supporters of the podcast over at join the foot dot com. So you can check that out. Here's the quick question for the both of you comes from Instagram. Alex writes in should more leagues abandon the kicker position or is that in and of itself an overreaction? Hmm interesting. None of my leagues can ban a kicker because I would never have one in it. So I am unable to react or overreact to this. Mike, what say you? I am on the side of I prefer not to have kickers. I understand why there are players out there who want them in your fantasy football. They want, like hey we need all the positions. I like that randomness. I don't, like I

think that kickers can, on any given week a random kicker can score way too many points and it's, we just,, there are, there's of course strategy. You can, you can get an edge. Like if you follow the right schedule, the right statistics to point you in the path of this is going to be a better kicker. But the thing is we just don't care. We don't. That is the issue.

It's the last you spend your entire draft season just obsessed scouring, who are those late sleepers that I'm going to get in the final three rounds? Then I'm going to get a kicker, which I hope he's on a high-powered offense. Go ahead, Jason. If you compare that to a similar position in defenses, where it's like we don't look super deep into defenses during the draft season. You're drafting them near the end of your draft. Okay, they are fun. Kickers

are not fun to play. No one is like, oh man, this is the best. Making sure I draft this guy and I'm going to play the waiver wire actually. That just doesn't actually happen in reality in most of your leagues. I think for me, there are kickers that are very, it's very predictable that they're gonna have a good season. Justin Tucker for many years, right? Good offenses, right? Yeah, that's what I'm saying.

There's edges to be had. Sorry, to finish the thought, the difference to me is that on the high end, yes, you can be predictive about kickers, they always get drafted last in your draft, but it's also rare for, like there's a level of randomness where the worst kickers in the league can have the biggest week, right? The rank 28, 29, 30, at any moment they could have the biggest week, right? It's a little bit more random in the way that that plays out that differentiates it from other positions where that

doesn't happen as often. And there are other offensive positions we don't draft we don't draft the dedicated fullback right we have we love Kyle Juszczyk right we'd love to you know he fits into the running back spot because it's part of the bigger picture of watching football and what you enjoy about the game when a drive ends and a kick has to happen you're sad a drive is over you know what I mean you're sad negative it's a negative thing. It's a negative thing. So I think, you know, there are a lot of arguments if people like it, whatever, you can do things

to minimize the negative impact of kickers on your league, which could be like, you know, don't overly reward long kicks, make them all worth just three, no matter where they're at, or don't take off a bunch of points on a miss kick or something, any of that stupid stuff. I like defenses. I like having them in there.

They possess some of the same qualities though. They possess some of the same qualities, but it is fun and you can target them and you can target the other offenses. And the waiver wire is an exciting part of defenses. Because you can play a bad defense in a good matchup. And so there are defenses that are just always out there because they've got a bad schedule, so no one's going to play them for a couple weeks. So you're playing that game against your

league mates. Who's going to grab him a week ahead of time for the great matchup in week 15 or whatever it is? There's strategy and fun there that just never comes into question with kickers. Kickers, you draft them at the beginning of the year in the order you think and you go, I hope I did it right. And then eventually if one gets injured, you're like, okay, I'm going to swap them out. And this is just boring. Well, and how often are kickers a part of a trade? That should tell you everything. They're not parts of trades in fantasy almost ever. So if they're not parts of trades, they're

not being, you know, you're not like, it's not party trade. It's your, it's almost always the final pick of, of your draft. in fantasy almost ever. So if they're not parts of trades, they're not being, you know, you're not like... It's not part of your trade. It's almost always the final pick of your draft. And if you cut them, this is the more important thing, if you cut them out of your league, you can add a flex position. Yeah, more fun. You can add more enjoyment to your league. So that's the side we lean on. You know, I'm not bent out of shape.

It's the side I stand on. Yeah, Jason stands on it. I lean on it. Mike? I would say I lean on it too because if that's fun for you in the league, okay, go ahead. That's why we play. But I think it is not just not fun. I think it

creates frustration. Well, it certainly did for Mike long ago. Yeah, he's got burns. Yeah. He has a playoff defeat. When you lose in the semi-championship. Timey. Yeah, Fairbairn. Fairbairn.

More like Unfairbairn. Makes five field goals and I think some extra points. You're just like, what is this? Your kicker outscored your RB1. And that was the last straw. This is not ever happening again. All right let's talk about that big news. News and notes from around the league. Well it happened yeah. George Pickens is no longer a Pittsburgh Steeler been

traded to the Cowboys they get Pickens in a 2027 sixth round pick. They give up a third in a 2027 fifth round pick. And so, you know, it's kind of like, it's kind of like trading them for a soft second situation. Sure. You move up a round later and you get a third and George Pickens is not going to be the running mate with DK Metcalf. So there's two sides of the discussion, right?

There's the, you know, clearly DK Metcalf will be everything in the passing offense in Pittsburgh, which is good. I mean, like... No, this trade is incredible. For both sides. For fantasy. Yeah, that's what I mean like it's this trade is incredible like this for both sides this trade fantasy Yeah, that's what I mean for fantasy purposes this helps

Pretty like everybody who's involved except other than a Mari Cooper a Mari Cooper is like ah crap I thought I was gonna be a cowboy other than whoever Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback ends up being but like George Pickens and DK Metcalf are two similar archetype of wide receivers and so it was it felt like as we were going and you can't be overly confident with either of them you're gonna lean to DK because he they traded a bunch for him and they just gave him the money so he's the number one but what does the number one mean when you have George Pickens doing really similar stuff to you on a low passing volume offense? Well, now he goes to, we're talking George Pickens goes to Dallas.

He's mashed up with Dak, which is like, this is perfection. This was a tweet from Warren Sharp Dak Prescott the last two years. Number one in most passing yards on a, on 15 yard go routes. Number two, most attempts of 15 yard go routes. George Pickens the last two years, the most receiving yards on 15 yard go routes, and the second most catches on those types of plays too. So this is, and this is exactly what the Cowboys need. And it's not bad for C.D. Lam.

No, it is even better for C.D. C.D. can move around, he can keep being underneath in the slot and being a yards after catch guy where they where defenses is not Brandon Cooks or Jalen Tolbert on the outside. It's George Pickens you actually have to worry about. Yeah. You're going to have to make sure you're paying attention to the other half of the field and not just taking your entire defense and saying let's slow CD down. Now the CD down. There it is. There it is. Yep. The target market share probably comes down a few percentages. You know, I had him originally at 31% market share.

Maybe that comes down to 29, 28, but he's still, CD is still going to be a target hog, but now the defenses aren't going to be as difficult. So I agree. I mean, this is really across the board. It's a wonderful thing for Dac. It's just a fantasy., it's great for Dak. Dak is huge. It's huge for Dak. He needed another target. They didn't get it in the draft. Do you like just right out of the gate, someone like Darnell Mooney, someone like George Pickens in Dallas, are you on the Pickens side of that equation? Oh, go Pickens. Yeah. Just for the upside potential? Yeah. For the upside Pickens is if you go watch George Pickens' highlights. And I know you can't judge a player

completely on their highlights, but it's like, he does things on go routes that very few wide receivers in the NFL can do. You got something, Jay? Well, I just wonder, because I know you are in tune with this as well, do you have any concerns about the fact that whenever a Steeler wide receiver is traded, they go and die?

There definitely is that of... The Mike Tomlin era has been... Or just the stealers in general, they've been very good at calling their shot when a wide receiver leaves. There are... Because it's like Claypool, they absolutely fleeced the Bears there. Antonio Brown. Yeah, we got rid of Antonio Brown at the right time. Deontay Johnson. Yes, Deontay.

But the thing about is like- George Pickens. People are like, well, you got also Mike Wallace. And you gotta remember the context was, the Steelers wanted Mike Wallace. And then Mike Wallace- Yeah, Wallace was okay. But I'm saying Mike Wallace didn't want that contract so that contract ended up going to Antonio Brown which turned into

a huge hit and then you have you have San Antonio Holmes. There aren't Steelers fans that like this move right now. And Manny Sanders for Denver had a couple great years. Yeah the Steelers fans hate this move. Oh for sure. I do think that they got the wrong end of it. Absolutely. Now, Pickens doesn't have a contract. Yeah. And it didn't come with a contract extension in Dallas. And there's some more prove it aspects there.

Aaron Rodgers coming in, potentially. The wide receiver options outside of DK Metcalfe are abysmal. We have an entirely unproven, we hope, Roman Wilson's around in year two. It's not often you miss or are irrelevant in year one and it's big time in year two. It is, but Jason loves... Oh, Roman Wilson was the third round pick.

I liked Roman Wilson coming out of college, but let's get on the field. I mean, you couldn't do it and having productive options outside of one receiver in Pittsburgh hasn't happened recently either. Calvin Austin, I would put my money on Calvin Austin having a better fantasy season than Roman Wilson. As much as I hope and liked Roman Wilson in college, that's just where I'd place my bet right now. It is usually a bad sign for a rookie to be so,

even like, he was injured. Roman Wilson missed his rookie season for all intents and purposes. I think he only got on the field in one game and then was not active outside of that. So to me that at least gives potential that we just didn't get to see. It's not like he was on the field and failed. That is like a pretty assured hit rate of future failure. Wasn't there some of that in camp though? Yeah, he got injured in camp. He got injured several times, right? Yeah, he had a brief moment in time where he was around Robert would sign there. Don't forget about that

That's so boring by the trees, but he could get work Scotty Miller's there and they could add They could be a team that it goes and adds a free agent Kenan Allen or something like an Allen Yeah, Mario Cooper's like Yeah, I mean if Kenenan or Mario Cooper landed, it would be, none of us would feel like they got a lot worse losing Pickens in that situation, but there you go. And on the other side, it's great for Dak, CD, maybe some of the deep shots don't go his way, but-

It's still, it makes your offense overall better, and you don't need to, CD Lam is a true number one. I'm not concerned about him in the slightest.'s like like I said I love I love this fantasy purposes for so many guys it really on it it was there was a clog and it and the plumber showed up and fixed that for us work and it was fantastic work and then on top of that like for the Cow Cowboys, this bet of, which is essentially a third, you know, if they get to the end of the year and they go, ah, we just, we can't make the money work and we can't pay Lamb, DAC, and also pay George Pickens, which not

saying they can, they can't, but even if they don't, now George Pickens is going to go out and he's going to get a bag of money from someone and now you have a, that's compensatory pick. Spoken like a true dynasty manager of George Pickens is gonna go out and he's gonna get a bag of money from someone and now you have a that's a story spoken like a true dynasty manager of George Pickens well live in a good life I'm trying to give the Cowboys credit for actually doing something really really well Jags did not do something well they paid 39 million dollars to Gabe Davis three three-year deal and now they have released him he He played ten games last year. He's still just 26. I like to say he sucks because I think he sucks. You know where he should go? The bills. I mean, he could just give him another touchdown option. He worked out there. He's just done.

He's just done. He just done. He tore his meniscus in week 11, so that's part of it. And then obviously with them drafting their new rookie wide receiver slash cornerback and having Brian Thomas Jr. I guess that's the good encouragement that Travis Hunter's going to be a full-time offensive player. Yeah.

You don't cut Gabe Davis right there after you lose Ingram and Kirk. I had done the Jaguars team and statted them out with Gabe Davis on it prior to this release and it didn't change much for me, I'll say that. No, no. So Gabe Davis, it was a three-year 39, this was 24, fully guaranteed.

His dead money this year, will be 20 million dollars do you know how many receptions that Gabe Davis had last year man I don't I'm gonna guess 40 or less yeah I'm gonna go 16 I'm gonna tell you he had one reception for every million dollars of dead money that they owe. 20. 20 receptions. Bum. 24 mil.

He's a bum. Hey. But shout out to UKD. But he's rich. Dallas Goddard agreed to a restructured deal for 2025 to stay in Philly. Goodness, that was a really weird long posturing. Yep, he's's gonna hang around for

another year and I mean it was like this big old fight yeah Philly where reporters were like you know is there any chance he actually plays next year and I'm not sure and it's like they just restructured to take a couple million away from yeah it's weird yeah yeah well he was he was trying to position for a better situation maybe yes all right I think that's it by way of news unless you guys have anything else we can take a break and jump into our Overreactions sound good. Let's go I Guess one thing I didn't mention that we could you know just to make you roll your eyes

You know if they if they weren't't rolled into the back of their head because you were proud of the Cowboys, we do have the running back situation there where Ryan Schottenheimer was noncommittal on whether there would be a lead back or a committee approach among Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, Deuce Vaughn, Jaden Blue, yada yada.

I didn't hear a lead back there. I was gonna say, you can't, that's not a decision. I have an incredible idea Dallas, zero running backs on the field. Go six wide? Yeah. And throw everything to CD Lamb. If you read their depth chart at running back over and over again, you will continue to add pass attempts to their stat line, Jason, inside of your Google doc. you will continue to add pass attempts to their stat line, Jason, inside of your Google Doc. Mm hmm. All right, let's jump in. I'm not going to do what you all think I'm going to do, which is just flip out. Overreactions for 2025, what are we expecting fantasy players to overreact to?

Why should they be careful? Who wants to kick it off any volunteers? I will I will go ahead and kick it off here because I don't know if you've seen this one yet Jason I have oh I I did go ahead. This is I haven't seen any of your guys This is about not overreacting and I am saying don't really talking to me I am I'm talking to you and I'm talking to the world don't bury Breeze Hall he's not dead yet so I'm actually in on that I'm actually in on

that please tell me more I tried to trade for him in dynasty oh you trying to get him I tried to offer him a couple offers it has been a murky off season at best here for Jason and his relationship with one of his favorite running backs in recent memory of Breece Hall. Last year was disappointing.

He finished at the running back 17. This was a guy you drafted hoping, I might have the RB1 here, and he gave you 13.3 points per game, and it felt bad because that's not anywhere, like when you're going for that elite ceiling of a season, when you finish at running back 17, it's disappointing. But here are some numbers of, don't bury him yet.

He had the fifth highest offensive snap percentage among running backs. Like even with, they started working other guys in, he was still on the field a ton. He ranks fourth in yards after contact per attempt since entering the league. So counting all of his three years. And on top of that, he's still a great pass catcher.

And if you want someone who can actually get into the top, into that top five, you really need to have pass catching. And we have over the last decade only the only running backs through their first three years who have averaged five or more targets and 13 rushing attempts per game, which that that is a ton of work. Those names of the guys in their first three years who hit that mark Krishma Caffrey, Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, and Brice Hall. This is a really good list to be a part of. I think he's such an interesting situation because I'm with

you on the overreaction. I think the burns are major. Jason has accentuated them. He has not put any, like there's no burn cream, there's no treatment. He's not fighting fires. He's showing took my extinguisher off the wall, threw it over the neighbors fence, like I'm gonna let this thing burn. Yeah, he's letting it sizzle. But the only thing about Bree Sahl that changes this year for me is that the potential outcomes for him have changed. You are, you're at a point now where what? Where two coaches removed from his draft coach. Yes. We have talent in the backfield beyond Bree Sahl and you know you're going to get towards the end of contractual situations. So I don't look at him like his risk rating is higher for me. That's fine. His projection is lower than it would have been in the past but the possibility that he still has upside is it's a hundred percent there. Like if you end this year and he's the running back 11, the running back 9, running back 13, like not surprised. I think that's

very possible. To not bury him, and to speak to those points Andy, you have at least metrics wise, look Braylon Allen who I really liked as a prospect when he came in and when he first started getting some work it looked like This is a this is a dude who really could challenge Bruce Hall for some of these attempts, but metrics wise Only Gus Edwards logged a worst explosive rush rate than Braylon Allen. Hmm. He was 43rd enforced miss tackle rate He was 50th in yards per carry like the actual production rate. He was 50th in yards per carry. Like the actual production wasn't as good at the by the end as we thought it would. And then looking at the offense, the offense was was so bad with with Rodgers and with Nathaniel Hackett. Looking in

Justin Fields is now their quarterback. Look at him last year. Rodgers had a lower completion rate than Justin Fields. He had a lower yards per attempt, a lower a-dot, and a higher off-target rate. We're talking about Rodgers versus, like, Fields was a better thrower of the ball last year, and while it is a truth, for the most time in fantasy football, that when you have a mobile quarterback, it can be worse for the running back because you see fewer targets. But Justin Fields, last year, a 15% check down rate. Like that is, only Andy Dalton had a higher

check down rate among qualified quarterbacks. Fields was actually thrown to his running back. That is... If we're not going to lose the targets... You buried the lead. I feel like that's the best thing you said. I had to get there, man. I had to get there. Now let me ask you. You say don't bury him. Is this a back that

can be a top five running back in fantasy? Because right now he's being drafted at 10. I would say, I would not project that at all, but when you're making the ceiling case for guys in that range who have the actual physical ability, because a running back needs certain things to break right on his team that are out of his control. And if some of those things break right, Brice Hall I think is still good enough to be five. But he, I mean, I would be pretty surprised if he's not a top 12 running back at the end of this year. Well, I hope you are right.

Yeah, that's, that'll be a tough one for fantasy players where they pull the trigger. But right now, ADP-wise, wise underdog sleeper They don't seem too afraid. It seems like when you get beyond the big names and You want to lock in somebody that looks like they're gonna get all the work They're choosing Breeze Hall in the same, you know, is he and mixin and Jacobs like Where are those guys going relative to Breeze Hall right now? Where's Mixon? I'd have to go look, I can tell you. One sec.

Yeah, I'd be curious where Mixon is going relative to Breeze because I would project the Houston Texans to be a better team and we like that at running back. Mixon on Sleeper is going at 18 versus running back to 10. I mean James Connor or Breeze Hall. I'm sure Connor's going behind him too. Connor's going behind Mixer. Jacobs is probably going just ahead of him. Yeah a couple spots. But I mean you're in a category of like if they get all the

work that's checking a lot of boxes for fantasy players. All right my overreaction no one's gonna like this because we're still in the offseason right? The season hasn't started? That is correct. And who wins every offseason? What team what team is the champion of the offseason? The Dolphins? Oh, no, no, no are winners of the office. No, this team has won it like three years in a row This is this Chicago Bears. Yeah, the Bears are Super Bowl champions of the offseason three straight years. They got the rings Here's my overreaction Don't overreact to Ben Johnson and the Sun and him becoming the head coach of this team and and that it will somehow guarantee a bunch Of fantasy relevant players in Chicago. Oh

The people don't like it do not like that. I'm setting that's all the Bears fans The people in Chicago are writing I am rooting for him to succeed. I would I like Caleb Williams I hope he succeeds and is a fantasy relevant quarterback, but he might not be I like Roma doonsay I hope he has a breakout campaign. He might not be There are a lot of players on this team that people want to be fantasy relevant including a rookie tight end drafted at number 10 But we always always look at the coaching transition During the offseason with rose-colored glasses, all the positives. Why do you get hired as a head coach? Because you

did something good last year. Yeah, I mean you are coming off of a successful season in whatever capacity, like Canales, right? I think he's a great coach. It wasn't all roses last year in Carolina, quite the opposite. And Ben Johnson's got a lot to work on. We think he's making all these great moves. That's what the Bears do every off season. Over the last decade, first year head coaches, just to get it out of the way, it's a 426 winning percentage. So you're a, you're a first time head coach. You're already behind the eight ball on, on the averages there. This is the fifth head coach the bears have had since

we started this podcast. Wow. That's, you know, Tressman and Fox and Nagy and Eberfluss. The last two, they provided a lot of good content for the podcast, but not good football for the Bears fans. You cannot always wave a magic wand in one year. It's very difficult. And last year, this was not,

this wasn't like a moderately Okay, offensive team giving you fantasy production. This was Still had Caleb Williams, right? You still had the main cook in the kitchen and you were the 32nd ranked in yards per game as a rookie 28th and points per game Dead-lasts and expected points added on first down this team was bad. And so do I think they'll be better? Yes. But there is a lot to worry about and a lot of mouths to feed. You have, you know, we've gone through our projections. I've looked at the Bears. It's like you're

throwing the ball to Loveland and DJ Moore and Burden and Odunze and Komet's still going to be in the mix a little bit. And you've got Swift out of the backfield. And like, there's just a lot of players where I don't think it's gonna be easy for us on a week-to-week basis to sift through who's going to produce if this team is a middle-of-the-pack offense. Like I think everybody wants to project Ben Johnson making them a top-10 offense but the more realistic outcome is that they'll be middle of the pack and that's a huge improvement for this team So to me the overreaction is just the optimism. I think we've been here before

We've awarded them the offseason, but we need to temper expectations and it was kind of something we had to try to do last year Last year there was tons of excitement around the wide receiver room. Well last year. I mean what? Would they have three top? around the wide receiver room. Well last year, I mean, what, would they have three top 36 ADP wide receivers? Exactly. And it was, like this is, Guys, this is not possible.

I mean, DJ Moore finished at wide receiver 17 last year, and he had been coming off a wide receiver six season before the trade. You know, I do worry a little bit about Odunze and Moore, you know, ping pongponging back and forth as being the most relevant receiver on certain weeks with how it goes. So, I just think that that's the overreaction of the offseason. That doesn't mean it can't be your optimism for the offseason. I'm fine with that. I'm optimistic too. But the numbers say that this doesn't happen in one

offseason in a division where it's brutal. Like that's a tough division. Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, six games against those teams. They know who you are and they know Ben Johnson too. So it's just one of those things where I think we need to temper our expectations. You heard it here from Andy Holloway, bears suck. I know a couple friends that will, that's what they will have heard. Yeah for sure. If you're a Bears fan, that's the only, despite you saying you're rooting for them and everything, all they heard is that they suck. They didn't hear any of that.

I think it is worth noting that usually like the true bell of the ball, you know, biggest landing spot, which if I think what was that for this off season? It was this higher. I mean, we waited two coaching cycles to get this man a new job because we believe in him. And when you have that kind of hype, I mean, sometimes, you know, the generational talent is Andrew Luck and sometimes it's Trevor Lawrence or worse. So it's worth noting like let's not overreact because people were already overreacting last year to the Bears. I like that argument. Okay, so my thing to not overreact to,

and this comes from the fact that right now we are statting out players. We're going through their projections. We are making their lines for next year, and I'm seeing it over and over and over with the best of the best, the guys who were awesome last year. Don't overreact to players who had an abnormally high touchdown percentage in 2024. It's so hard, like the recency bias makes it so hard

to look at guys who were awesome. Baker Mayfield, Baker Mayfield. Laser Mayfield. Where is, there we go. Laser Mayfield. So clean. Lamar Jackson was unbelievable. So Patrick Mahomes is like the poster boy.

It used to be Aaron Rodgers for this. I feel like that's almost too dated now. Now he's an old man. We don't remember how incredible he was for fantasy. But everyone remembers how great Patrick Mahomes was. You know, throwing 8.6% of his passes for touchdowns. Then the next year was down to 5.4. And it's like, oh, whoa.

Oh, and then it's back up to 6.5 and then down to 5. Touchdowns are not a sticky stat. We say it all the time, but sometimes, I mean, there are a few players, and literally you can count them on one hand where you go, I know that player is a double-digit touchdown machine, but what we really think is we think of like a quarter of the league that way. Oh, he's a big-bodied guy who's had touchdowns in the past, so he has them. So I've got a handful of players that I just want to bring up exactly what they did and how that compares to normal. First up, Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson, the

three years prior to this last year, was awesome. But he threw 4.2% touchdowns, 5.2% touchdowns, 5.3% touchdowns, all in his normal range. And then last year, 8.6. He went from 16 touchdowns, 17 touchdowns, 24 to 41 touchdowns. That's not going to repeat. It never repeats. Like these kind of players, Baker Mayfield, same exact thing. He was awesome and we're like, well, he's got all the tools there. They added a great rookie wide receiver. He's going to be even better this year. The truth is, this is a guy whose touchdown rate has been nowhere near, you know, 4.1, 3, 4.9. And then this last year is 7.

Like a league average guy. Yeah, league average guy. Not bad. 7.2. So it's really hard to be like, well, it's going to fall back down to his norm. Statistically speaking, it usually does. Same thing with Jared Goff. He was up at a very nice 6.9% touchdown percentage. Yeah, he was outrageous last year. And that is not his norm. So you got to watch out for those guys. A couple other players at other positions, James Cook.

My goodness. Last year we were going in saying he can't score touchdowns. Then he tied the franchise record for rushing touchdowns. 43% of his fantasy points came via touchdown. Over the last six years, every single player who's ever done that has had massive regression the next year. Terry McLaurin, he's one of only 10 wide receivers since 2000 with 13 plus rushing. Oh my. They were plush. They were. Yeah. Need a break? 13.

And get you a towel. 13 receiving touch. Time out. I call time. I call time. All right. We got to take a commercial break. Elevator music. What do you want to talk about? I'm calling time. This is my first of four. You're not fogging your glasses though? No, I don't think I fog as much when I'm not fat. Turns out, you get really overheated when you're really overweight. Are you just begging Lefkoe for another chance? Oh, I got to go back.

Adam, where are you? Invite me back. I'll sit in that hot room and I won't... Over here. Here I am. It's me. All right, time in. Adam.

Back to Terry. Scary Terry was awesome last year. The argument is, well, he got a quarterback quarterback and so now someone could get him the ball he had 13 receiving touchdowns on fewer than 125 targets that has happened ten times before nine of those ten wide receivers decreased their receiving touchdowns next year by the average average for of them, five and a half fewer touchdowns. That is more than he usually gets in a season. Let's make it positive then, because I feel like a lot of our overreactions are going

to be like, don't fall for the trap of the great season. My next one is that exactly. But the positive twist there is let someone else overreact to it. Maybe take advantage in a dynasty or or keeper league of unreasonable expectations for certain players. Take advantage of the overreaction. Mark Andrews this year had 11. He had his career high in receiving touchdowns. Most people are wise to mark. Yeah, that one you're not going to capitalize on it, but maybe you can use it. But like for Terry, just for a quick thought exercise, he was at basically 1,100 yards and 13.

OK, you give him 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns. That is nowhere near the points per game that he put up last year. He's much closer to his normal output of being like an 11 point wide receiver. I feel like I'm going to break our order here. OK. Actually, I'll go to break, and then we'll come back.

And I'm going to follow what you said, Jason, because it ties into it. My second overreaction, it deals with a very specific player. Sweet. And so we'll go to that. And then, Mike, you'll take over from there. Roger. And here we go. So look, Jason, you talked about not overreacting to touchdown percentages at quarterback,

which are, you know, you do get outlier seasons, you get seasons that let you know what a player's capable of. I think that's what excites people, is you now know that Baker's capable of 40 plus touchdowns. He can do it. It's a fact. And you know Jared Goff, like he could have a big week, right? And that's helpful. Even if you don't draft that player to do it again the whole season, I now know that Baker could

do it in a game. He could do it in a series of games. Goff can give you a streaming quarterback performance of five touchdowns, that's nice. So my second overreaction is going to be an attempt to make the same mistake twice. I hope I don't make it twice, but it's related to Saquon Barkley. And it's simply that we can't overreact to his dominance and believe that this is a repeatable thing, what he did last year. It is, it was a magical, incredible season for Saquon Barkley, but I want to walk through really what happened

and what odds you're going to be stacking up against yourself to expect Saquon Barkley to go out there and do what he did last year. He carried the ball, he touched the ball 482 times. That was 378 touches. 378 in the regular season, another 104 in the playoffs, which was the fifth most touches all time in any playoffs. And you have to look at the numbers when a player gets that much work. It's not like Saquon's never been hurt in his career, but if you look at since 2020,

you had 10 running backs that have seen 330 plus touches. Mind you, he hit 378. All those running backs in the last five years have seen a decrease of 45 plus touches the following year, and only two of those 10 played a full season. So it takes its toll on you. It's very difficult. The other things that were outliers in Saquon's season and he's an amazing player, he will be an amazing player this year, much like how Derek Henry will have a good season. He had seven 40 plus yard runs last year. That is more than Todd Gurley had in his career. What? Yeah. Seven 40 plus yard runs, four 60 plus yard runs. CMC's, that's how many

he has in his entire career. So this was just a magical perfect season, but breakaway runs, especially breakaway touchdown runs, those are not sticky year to year, much like that touchdown percentage. You're talking about, he had a magical season, but it's very, very difficult to repeat as the RB one. And look, Mike, in our league of record, you got the number one pick.

You get to decide between Saquon Barkley, who's sitting out there, and Bijon, couple players that drop back into the they're looking good into the lottery out from the lottery, but this is just a Matter of not overreacting to expectations for Saquon Barkley He is entering his age 29 season over the last decade there have been zero Age 29 running backs who have finished in the top five among fantasy running backs.

It's very, very difficult to get that amount of work and do the exact same thing the next year. And it's difficult, even like the Eagles, they bounced back from a few years ago when they made their Super Bowl run, right? We were there, they lost to the Chiefs. They had some bumps in the road between that time. It's hard when you've got the target on your back as a team like that to be, you know, we didn't get a tush push ban this year. Still going to be a lot of Jaylen hurts. So look, I'd love Saquon. He's a top five pick. He absolutely should be there. But I think our expectations need to be, we just need to understand how much work he got last year.

There is, there is the answer of a player like if you're in dynasty and you've got Saquon Barkley and he's the number one running back You should in most leagues be able to find someone who will pay a haul an absolute Hall because they think they're getting the number one running back this next year and they might be but he's older I would like a dynasty and I say are you ready to like this is super cash in this is super cash And he is the he's gonna be 29 central type of player where he's at an age and a value where you almost have to make that move. You've got to trade him for a haul.

It's so brutal. Unless you're trying to run it back. If you're last year's champ, which I'd say you were, then sure. All right, Mike. I'm not saying any of you are contenders. He's 29, right? Yeah. He's 28.

He'll be 29. And watching Derrick Henry, who did it at 31. This will be a great season, but this might not be a win your league automatically season. That's what you got out of him. And every running back goes through this. And so it's just one of those situations where look, what did I say? Two of the 10 running backs with 330 plus touches even finished the full season. That is very difficult to do.

Now the team might not have a choice, but to run them into the ground, but you do have injury risk when you get 400 plus touches on the course of a year in a long playoff run. All right I'm gonna go through a this is some numbers from a study that I recently did over the offseason that kind of flipped a lot of I don't even what to, tables. No, not tables. Pancakes. Ooh, yeah, might've been pancakes. Scripts.

A lot of the things that I thought and that I think are general agreed upon things in fantasy football, it has assumptions. Thank you, Kyle. It has kind of made me have to re-look it. Is rearranging your brain a little bit? A little bit because when we think about wide receivers, you think about the year three breakout,

or if a player has been good before that, the year three, we're going to hit the ceiling. This is the year where everything really comes together. I went back and looked at all players drafted since 2014, time about wide receivers, and it turns out guys who break out in year two, and I consider a breakout as they finished in the top 24 for the first time. Okay, so they finished as in season two,

and we are really bad then at over projecting those players. And as in they're gonna continue to ascend? Yes, well the breakout happened. we are really bad then at over projecting those players. As in they're gonna continue to ascend? Yes, well the breakout happened. Next year they're just, they're going to get better. And I am talking in terms of your average draft position for these players. They go higher than, of course they're gonna go really high

because you're excited about this guy, but they end up not meeting the expectations. So when you, the way I'm breaking this down is, in ADP, you can average out each wide receiver position should score about this amount of points. What I mean by that is like, I draft player X as the wide receiver 14, I expect on average the wide receiver 14 at the end of year

is gonna have, you know, whatever it is, 10 points. I don't have those points in front of me, but. Per game. But yeah, yes, yeah, per game. So slotting points per game based off of where they were drafted. You're like, I'm expecting this point return by spending this draft capital on that player.

So since 2014, 19 total wide receivers finished in the top 24 in their second season. 19 of them. For their first time. Yes. Those players that you would say this is a breakout. Yes. The next year, based off of ADP expectations, nine of those players drafted did not meet their expectation. Almost half of those players didn't come back and give you the points that you needed. And eight of those were considered by me to be big misses. These guys were at two or more points under what I'm expecting them to give my team.

It was a drastically bad pick for me. And here's the names, because these are not bad players. This is Chris Olave, Michael Pittman, Darno Mooney, DK Metcalf, Terry McLorin, Cortland Sutton, Alan Robinson. These are players that we would all agree, the majority of the list, you're like, no, these are good players. But we just juice them up too much if they break out in year two.

It sounds like as fantasy players what we do is that addiction to potential. Yeah. We want, we don't want what has been, we want what could be. Exactly. And so as a consensus we may drive up their ADP. Yes and that's exactly what I'm saying. I'm not saying that their season in totality be a disaster, but I'm saying we are juicing them up just too much. And so nine guys missed, nine of the 19, so 10 hit. But of those 10, two would be considered big hits. Who performs two points higher than their expectations.

That was my biggest question, is the 10 that did. How many hit the ceiling? Really good, two of them. So this is turning things upside down for me, of trying to be at least a little more hesitant and skeptical. Obviously, if 10 out of 19 returned value, that's not bad. That's not catastrophic, but it should at least make you think about things. This year's candidates, Jackson Smith

and Jigba and Zay Flowers. Yeah, JSN's like a wide receiver of 15 right now. JSN is super juiced up and like, look, the second half was, it was absolutely incredible for JSN. Would you consider Jameson Williams in that group? No, he broke out in year three. Oh, that's right, he did. Last year was year three. Yeah, so, but JSN, it's a new offensive coordinator.

They're coming in like, we're gonna run, we're gonna run, you have a brand new quarterback. There are, this isn't a completely stable situation that JSN is just, we've transitioned to the next year and everything around him is exactly the same. No, there's a lot of things that have changed here and his draft price is going way up. Am I saying that he got a top three NFL draft pick at quarterback? I mean, that has to be an upgrade, right? I'm Sam Darnold, baby. I forgot. I was like, what are an upgrade right? Talking about Sam Darnold? Sam Darnold baby! I forgot he was a dumb. I was like what is this game you're playing sir? So he's probably still younger than Tyler Shuck.

Yes, we all are. We are? Yeah we are all. If you're listening you are younger than Tyler Shuck. So last year, weeks one through eight for JSN one total touchdown despite averaging nearly eight targets a game. Weeks nine through 16 pulls in five touchdowns in that time on nine targets per game. So it's like the touchdowns went way up just saying that I think there's there's room for some concern and the same for Zay Flowers of will he take that step. Now he's going much later in the draft. I feel like he's not being as, I don't think people are looking at him

the same way they look at J.S.N. right now. J.S.N. fits the bill of how I would have felt, how we all felt about Terry McLaurin after the second year and you're like, okay, now it's time. You know, here's the crown, become a wide receiver one for the next 10 years and that's the thing that goes into question. The combination of what he did at the end of last year with what he

was supposed to be coming in add in the DK Metcalf trade and the Tyler Lockett trade and you're expecting him to be a top 10 wide receiver this year so but I do hear you on the data and there are a lot of negatives in his situation as well the new quarterback You know all jokes about it being number three and Darnold was able to hold Justin Jefferson's value But he's still Sam Darnold right new offensive coordinator. Yeah, the the the possibility that Sam Darnold comes in and You know lands on his face and Jalen Milrow is playing at the end of the year. That is not unforeseeable. Yeah, that one's interesting more so just like you got the two names for this year but

just moving forward. It's rational to me why people do it. Oh, yeah. I've been doing it. A bunch of my My Guy Whiffs are because it's a guy who broke out in year two and I'm so pumped for next year. Yeah, and then they just they don't meet the exp. They don't fall on their face I think I know bring this. Oh, I'm moon. I think Mooney was yeah I think he was my guy for me the years that that happened I think I know why that is happening and I'm curious because you you've got the data, you've been doing the research. I think it is because the truly, really special players are now very often breaking out in year one.

Oh, dude. It is a rookie, you want to go in on rookies from last year who broke out in year one, they're gonna crush. So like I said, so the hit rate, and I define that as in they finish at least one point fewer or better for the expectation. The hit rate on, like I said, the guys who break out in year two, about 52%. If you break out in year one, your hit rate on the next one, 94%.

Oh, that's got me hot and bothered. Yeah, you've already beaten a level. Yeah. You know, you've beaten the game. Wow, that is crazy. Okay, well, that goes great into my... And these things, like, they do... it does go all over the place. It's not just high-end wide receivers. It's, you know, Jayden Reid finishes a top 24 guy as a rookie, but then his draft expectation, because he wasn't drafted very high, he actually beat it despite all the highs and lows of his season. Yeah. Interesting. Okay, so my next thing to overreact, it has to deal with rookies as well. Every year is different. And I don't want us to overreact to the amazing rookie

draft class we just had last year. Try to stop me. I will hopefully succeed actually with you. I hope I do not. We play in a lot of leagues together. But we saw this in 2014. If you have been playing fantasy long enough, that wide receiver draft class was just unbelievable. And it was like two years in a row where everyone was just assuming like, no man, you got to go so hard at these rookies because they were who, you know, they were the Odell Beckhams and the people who just won people's leagues. This last year's draft class was way better at some positions than this year's draft class.

Last year's wide receivers, they were historically great. Neighbors, Brian Thomas, Lad McConkie. All three of them, top 10 in best PPR points per game in rookie seasons over the last decade, all in this last season. So three of the 10 best seasons over the last decade were this 2024 rookies. Exactly. And that's pretty, that's pretty hard to repeat. Yeah, that's not going to repeat and you combine that with the fact that, you know, this year pre-NFL draft, like we're all hyped on these rookies now. I really like, you

know, I've scouted a lot of them. I like, I like Trey Harris, you know, he goes 50, picked 55 to a good landing spot. I liked his thing He wasn't gonna look for that but I liked his talent be a disaster but Like he is not as good as last year's draft like these guys this year's class Teterolik McMillan and and Travis Hunter. They are not like these players we were drafting last year at wide receiver. This is a running back draft class. And so honestly, don't overreact to last year's failure at running back either. This class is loaded. Look at last year's

quarterbacks as well. You had both Jaden Daniels and Bo Nicks as rookie season top 10 quarterbacks. 29 passing touchdowns for Bo Nix. That's the second most all time for a rookie. And Jayden Daniels, you can make an argument right now, he is already the quarterback one in dynasty. And so now who's coming in? You know what I mean? Who's gonna come in and be that?

Do you believe in- It's the challenge of, it's the reality that faces NFL executives every year is that you can draft what is there. And so the illusion that all draft capital is equal, right? It's like, if you're a first round draft pick, you're a first round draft pick, so you should play like a first round draft pick,

but there's individuals behind them, right? Cam Ward and Jackson Dart and Tyler Shuck are not as good as Caleb Williams and Jaden Daniels and Bo Nicks. We've had Blaine Gabbard years and Christian Ponder years. We've had rookie wide receivers and running backs that go so high because that's just what is available to NFL teams and they imbue a value. Look, I like Matthew Golden, but the metrics behind Matthew Golden being a first round wide receiver, if you put him in last year's draft class, he doesn't touch the first round. There are so many players, I mean,

you named three of them, but like the variables from year to year, it's almost like a clean slate philosophy where you need to look at the player and the talent and the reality of the situation. In some cases, as much as you do the draft capital. Draft capital tells you a lot about opportunity, but it doesn't tell you that they're gonna execute on that opportunity, their talent does. Exactly right, and the only other one I would throw out there, this is a talented tight end draft class.

So for several years in a row, we've had now a rookie tight end breakout. But Barack Bowers was a generational prospect. We were hearing about him you know, a rookie tight end breakout. But Barack Bowers was a generational prospect. We were hearing about him when he was a rookie, 19-year-old coming in and dominating. He made Lad McConkie literally never have a breakout age because he technically never broke out on that team because it was Barack Bowers' team. And so we got two really good-looking tight end rookies. And I do think that the NFL has changed. And I'm not got two really good-looking, tight-end rookies, and I do think that the

NFL has changed, and I'm not so opposed to a rookie being very involved, getting more opportunity. But don't draft these guys thinking, I'm getting Brock Bowers. You're not. There's one Brock Bowers. What is the draft capital on Colson Loveland right now? So it's really- Do we have any data yet? Not, no, not really. I looked that up and it's not real because at least on the sleeper data that I'm looking

at he has not, he's buried. Because Bowers did not, Bowers draft capital did not chase Laporta's success. People did discount Bowers. Like Bowers was like a seventh or eighth round pick. I mean if you thought you were getting Laporte or anything close, you would have been, this was a third or fourth round pick. So this year for rookies, honestly it's almost a pivot from last year. Go hard and deep at running backs in your drafts. Be a little bit more cautious.

I still love drafting rookies and I'm going to. You just can't imbue last year's talent and overreact and reach on guys that you shouldn't be. It makes sense. I will still be excited at the potential of some of those rookies, but it's all about what you're paying. It's all about the market, the supply, demand, and just probability. Factoring and all that. Fantasy football is not a black and white binary choice thing.

It is a probability-based sport, or game, not a sport. What's going on here, Chuckles? Well, I don't know, I was just thinking maybe. Did you wanna do some mail bag? Maybe we could do some mail bag. I don't know I mean, I know a couple men talk about this for a second I see if some of the benefits of doing a mail bag segment right now my gosh are that the show would go much longer I think one of our deucers in doozers I was ready to close. I'm not going to say who it is. I won't, I won't call them out, but someone doesn't want this toilet trophy. We're just more of a one cut show. We don't really take it. We don't take breaks. Um,

if a deuce or takes a break, they get a trophy, which I would love for them to get Michael's Mike's got a trophy. So anyways, on that note, you know! Oh my gosh! I think we'll let him off the hook. That'll do it for today's episode. Boy, I would have loved to get in some mailbag, but we would have lost the producer. Next week it's dynasty week. Oh baby! Do not miss it. Dynasty week!

Goodbye. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter at The FF Ballers.