Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - The Overreaction Episode with Special Guest Kurt Warner! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/9

Episode Date: May 9, 2024

Fantasy Football Overreactions for 2024! On today’s podcast, players and situations that fantasy managers are overreacting about after the NFL Draft. Find out who will be overvalued and undervalued in fantasy football drafts! Plus, an interview with very special guest Kurt Warner! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for May 9th, 2024. Get the lowest price on the 2024 UDK at UltimateDraftKit.com - Dynasty Pass content available NOW with the UDK+ Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on Twitter Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages. Conditions apply. Scotiabank, you're richer than you think. Hey everybody, Kurt Warner and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Welcome in. Thursday, May 9th.

Jason Moore, Andy Holloway, the fantasy footballers with you today, this morning, this evening, whenever you're listening. Excited to have you here. I hope you're listening at midnight. I just hope you couldn't. Why? Because you couldn't sleep? You couldn't sleep and you're like, I don't know what to do.

And then it's like, you know what I'm going to do? I'm going to spend some time with my best friends. Minus one. Minus one. Well, plus one and Jay Grizz. Jay Grizz is still their friend. But yes, Mike, unfortunately, still down with the sickness. Yeah. Yeah, he got, I mean, we said this on the footcast.

He got big headed. He got prideful. He didn't think he could get sick. No, no. He started talking like that. Yeah, about January, he was like, I'm impervious. Yeah, I came back from Columbia in January. Had COVID.

Gave it to you. Oh, not Mike. No, Mike didn't get it. No, no, no. He was like, yeah, I can't even get this. I got tattoos. I can't get shit. Oh, look how tough I am.

Look how large. I'm Jay Griss. I'm Jay Griss. What in the world was that? That was the most ill-timed thing I've ever seen in my life. I thought we had technical difficulties. Okay, so let's just walk through this. We were riffing. Oh, I was on a roll.

We were riffing about mine. I had so much material ready to go and then apparently i'm guessing that the deuces were uh like all prepped with this jay grizz thing and they were so excited to pull out this whatever just happened i don't know what just happened i'm honest i just unmuted his mic you oh yeah you unmuted jay grizz'suted Jay Grizz's mic? Yeah. And that's what Jay Grizz did? Right in the middle of our funny thing. So this is a Jay Grizz problem?

Jay, watch yourself. Watch. I'm telling you right now, there are other cardboard animals out there, and I will go get an octopus in that seat if I got to do it. Well, that's a weird one, but yeah. A cardboard octopus is weird. I'm sorry, everybody.

This is, uh, this is an actual special episode. It really genuinely is because we have our overreactions for 2024. We're going to bring up a couple of things that we think the fantasy football community will be overreacting to as they go into draft season. But we also have a very special guest on the show today, the specialist, in my mind.

Genuinely, there is not a human being on the planet, I'm guessing, that you would rather talk to than the one we're talking to today. He is an icon of sorts for you yes uh as a man as a player as a local hero yes the one the only kurt warner it's pretty cool i'm i'm excited for you like i'm excited i love kurt warner he's one of my all-time favorites but i know for you this is this is like dad you know this is I mean? This is January 18th, 2009 NFC Championship game.

Greatest sports memory of my life. Mine too. You were there. I was there. Mike was there. Y'all know we're Cardinals fans. We're a long-suffering bunch, but Kurt Warner brought redemption to the Valley. Hope. A moment in the sun. Yeah. And also

not only Hall of Famer, but Hall of Fame analyst. And we wanted to talk to him about some of the reactions, overreactions with a rookie quarterback class where six players were drafted in the top 12. And so we will discuss that later on the show. Very, very excited to do that. And like you said, I mean, we've had Hall of Famers on the show before. We've had Patrick Mahomes on the show. Very, very excited to do that. And like you said, I mean, we've had Hall of Famers on the show before. We've had Patrick Mahomes on the show.

Yeah, we've had a ton of incredible, legendary guests. This is the peak for me because everyone has their life. How does it feel to know that there is nowhere to go but down from here for you? Like there isn't someone else to re-peak. Yeah, I mean, if Larry wanted to come on, I wouldn't complain. No, but like that's, I mean, still. But this is the peak. Yeah, no, I'm walking away.

This is Everest. Yeah, no, it's very exciting, and I think it'll be a very fun conversation, and I have some fun things to bring up on top of the discussion about Ricky quarterbacks. We'll have to get Michael Keaton to come on the show. That wouldn't be so bad. Yeah.

But fun show today. Like I said, overreactions, the Kurt Warner interview, and then a reminder of the ultimate draft kit comes out on June 1st. That is very soon. It is almost out. We are weeks away. I know we are about two-thirds done with all the statting behind the scenes. The new stuff that we're bringing up is

great, and you only have a couple weeks left if you want to get pre-order pricing. Right now, the Dynasty Pass is out. The Best Ball rankings are out. The rest comes out on June 1st, but it is still pre-order pricing right now. What are you laughing about? I'm remembering what Al did

back there with that drop it's just frightening i'm a little thrown off it was surprising and i know that there's some effort that was put in by somebody to make that happen yeah well it's just you know timing is hard timing timing is timing we make it look easy right but like you know the guys back there we were in the middle of making fun of mike one of our favorite things to do it's a fundamental part i was just about to bring up his forehead like i was ready to roll right there i mean right there right yeah it was a big area to land and oh man they missed the runway maybe later on the show quick question of the day. This one comes from Instagram, from TheDocHalliday.

Who will be a more valuable asset this year in fantasy? It's two interesting names. T. Higgins, Stephon Diggs. Yeah, this will be very, very interesting. The whole Houston Texans wide receiver core is going to be one where people are going to call their different shots and not everyone can be right there will be value to be had there and it can go literally any of the three like Tank Dell, Stephon Diggs, Nico Collins you could sort them in any order. Two of them, very likely to have huge seasons.

Yeah, and honestly, that's the hope is that you have two of them with huge seasons because right now my problem is I've got three of them with good seasons. And what that means is that none of them have great seasons. So I was very open to the idea that maybe Stephon Diggs could have a resurgent year on the footcast. Somebody brought up the fact that, oh, is he going to be this year's Mike Evans where he's undervalued because he's changing – well, Evans didn't change teams, so he changed quarterbacks.

And I was open to that possibility. I did not in there when I looked at the stats that I put in. I have C.J. Stroud at seven. So C.J. Stroud, I don't have a down year from C.J. Stroud. Yeah, why do you hate C.J. Stroud? I've got him at six. Oh, do you? Yeah, I do.

That means he's probably a – I have Jordan Love at six, and that would probably be the difference. Yeah. But Tank Dell, Nico Collins, I have as top 24 receivers, and I have Diggs outside of that group at 32. So there's a new contract for Dalton Schultz. There's a great pass-catching weapon in Joe Mixon. There are a lot of things to consider there, and I am a little bit worried

that Stephon Diggs, after finishing the second half of the season as the 76th best fantasy wide receiver in football, might be closer to entering his Odell Beckham one-year deal stage of career than the resurgence that we saw from a Mike Evans or the type of I'm going to change teams and explode like DeAndre Hopkins did in his prime going to Arizona I am just not confident of that and I I think CJ Stroud is a heck of a quarterback. I don't think he's the kind of quarterback that's going to get bullied into targeting somebody that isn't making a difference on the team.

And this is not a situation – like in Buffalo, you could argue that Diggs is going to get his. He's going to make sure it's known in the locker room. That's what you've got to do. Well, and there weren't other great options there either. Correct. And we know he loves Tank. C.J. Stroud loves Tank Dell.

Loves Tank Dell. I hope you listening find someone in your life that you love as much as C.J. Stroud loves Tank Dell. And this is essentially a one-year deal. So if you don't, you cause a problem, you don't contribute the way that we need you to contribute. Guess what? We made the playoffs and we did it last year without you. That's the view that I am you to contribute guess what we made the playoffs and we

did it last year without you that's the view that I am taking and they did it without Tank Dell at the end of the year so you get those guys back that is a long way of answering T Higgins yeah T Higgins is the answer I guess for both of us T Higgins is in his own right quite a conundrum he came in last year he was almost a top 12 drafted wide receiver. He was on, he was like that 12, 13 range and deservedly so from what you saw on the field prior to that, the issue now has been, he has not been able to stay healthy. He, you know, he missed a couple of games, but really he missed, you know, he had two games last year where he had a very, you know, a few snaps and basically didn't play.

When he is out there active on the field with a healthy Joe Burrow, which honestly I don't know that we really saw that last year, he's a dominator. He is a really, really good – he's a top 15 wide receiver. They lost Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon, and I think that T. Higgins has an awesome season. He's probably going to be a draft day value because I'm guessing he's going to be drafted somewhere in the mid-20s at wide receiver.

We are in agreement about T. Higgins there, so savor it. I don't plan on agreeing with you more than three four times the rest of the year the year not the show no the year wow i'm gonna try to get one more today i'm gonna front load these agreements i'll give you a coupon you can use it on any argument though so at some point in time you can actually give me that i will i will have it here under the desk and you'll someday i will save it for an argument this season hey deuces write this down this is a real thing i want that note and i will use it sometime this year but i'm gonna i'm i'm not front and loading that one the golden ticket you're saving it oh yeah so if we're in a thick argument you'll bust it out i'm gonna wait until there's one that we both really believe

oh no where i believe it and i believe you're wrong but you know i'm wrong and i'm gonna i'm gonna make you change your mind. So the producers get that coupon ready and do that instead of whatever you were doing with that Jay Grizz sound. All right, into the news we go. News and notes from around the league. I'm pretty sure the Jay Grizz song was good. I just could not appreciate it because it was like being hit in the face

with a manhole cover on the show. It was just so – it was like – It was like J.D. McKissick drop. Right. It was like they were waiting for their moment but forgot to wait. They were like, oh, this is going to be a good bit. I can't wait for the right – oh, it's right now. The moment is right now.

The drop had a countdown on it, and you weren't't gonna be able to hit it if you didn't hit it before zero um all right in less uh exciting news what are we doing here man the chiefs wide receiver rushy rice he's under investigation for an alleged nightclub assault now. I believe this was in Dallas. This is, it's not good. The dust hasn't settled on this whole multi-vehicle crash suspension. Now you're seeing some of the dust coming off of the scouting reports that talked about Rushie Rice has off-the-field issues and it's problematic that

some teams took him off their board so it's not a good look the nfl from from what i hear from other insiders it looks like the chiefs are still preparing to lose a significant you know a large chunk of games here for rushy rice and it's it's unfortunate because Rushie was coming into a situation here where he could have developed into the dude this year early, often, and established himself. Now, I don't know if that factored into grabbing Xavier Worthy. Maybe it did. Maybe it's like, well, I don't know. We've got to trade up, and we've got to have another wide receiver on the roster. Maybe they don't even draft him, or they get someone a little bit later if they don't have anything over Rushie. But it's not a good look, and it's just not wise. It's a knucklehead problem, as Barkley would say.

Yeah, this is a dynasty problem now. It's not just a dynasty problem in as much as, oh, what's he going to get for this suspension? It's a dynasty problem in, like, what headline does he make next? There is some concern there. I'm not saying he's irredeemable i'm just saying that you have to have a fundamental change if in the middle of trying to let the dust settle you're engaging in a an alleged nightclub assault before you can even lay low like this is from a fantasy football perspective i'm going to say something i hate which is these you don't care well these things won't matter they won't they they almost never

do i think they already have i'm my point is if he's good on the field he will get back on the field and he will get paid he will get a contract he will get the ball and so what he what happens off the field maybe it has an effect in like the the Xavier Worthy situation where maybe they work in other targets but the truth is talent wins out on the NFL field regardless of off-field issues there was a point in time where we thought Tyree Kill was never going to play football again because of his off-field issues and that's when the Chiefs you know reached for McCall Hardman and they they weren't sure. And now Tyreek Hill has spent the last couple years being, he's the number three pick at worst in your fantasy football drafts.

We had a big disparity in our rankings of how many targets we thought Rushie Rice was even going to get this year. And I am of the opinion that if you work yourself off the field with an off-the-field incident, and the team has success without you on the field, that your role could diminish your dependent dependent you want players that the team depends on for production is all i'm saying and if rice is not dependable you can build an offense with patrick mahomes and you don't need him. Yeah, but Sky Moore and Kadarius Toney and Justin Ross aren't going to take advantage of the

opportunity. But Worthy will. And Hollywood Brown might. Yeah, I mean... And those are players that can start every snap. Yeah, but they're going to be in three wide receiver sets. I think they need one more guy here to push Rush in and they don't have it. Well, I would... You're projecting... Like Rush

Rice last year had a good season, 79 for 938 and 7. As a rookie. As a rookie. And he really was not that involved in the first half of the year. It wasn't until after their bye week that he started getting utilized more, being relied upon more. Yeah, yeah.

It'll be a weird season. For those of you that have Rice, you're going to be waiting to find out what the final verdict is on a suspension. We were talking about T. Higgins, former running mate. Tyler Boyd signs a one-year contract with the Titans. Reunates. Reunates. Reunates.

See, that's the moment to hit that drop. When I screw something up and we need to distract. Or like it when you stop talking. I'm Jay Chris! I'm Jay Gris. I'm Jay Gris. Two growls. Okay.

It's got a vibe. Jay Gris. You don't want to overplay it, but it's nice. He's trying to be the star of the show. But at least then we were done talking. Yeah. Reunites with head coach Brian Callahan, who is in Cincinnati. And goodbye, Traylon Burks.

You came, you saw, you didn't conquer, and it's over. I don't think this affects Traylon Burks that much because, and don't hear what I'm not saying. Because he wasn't going to be involved anyway. Correct. Yeah. If you listen to the coaches talk about the slot role and they need someone to step up and they're excited to try them out,

and that's who they talked about. They're like, Kyle Phillips has a great chance. He's shown some flashes. Kyle Phillips is who really takes us on the chin. Kyle Phillips was cut from my Dynasty team this morning. That makes sense because Kyle Phillips just became a backup slot receiver for Will Levis. So Tyler Boyd

will go into the starting role as the slot and now there's three really good veteran wide receivers for Will Levis to airmail it over. So it'll be a really interesting offense. I can't. Like, I'm most excited maybe for the Titans of all the teams out there because Will Levis has the opportunity to be great if he can just be good. And that's what we're probably betting on twitter said the titans wide receiver

core is like microwave french fries and i thought that was very funny because ridley he's been through two cycles of teams hopkins two cycles of teams boyd one year deal it does feel like it does it might not be as good as we think you know you're right we're getting a little caught up in the names like calvin ridley deandrere Hopkins, and Tyler Boyd is a great wide receiving group three years ago. Yeah. Great. Yeah. World class.

But this is a little old. You don't know who I signed in place of Kyle Phillips. Oh, I can't wait. Justin Ross. Oh, man. Someone's taking the rushy news real personally. You know, just wait and see. All right, that is it for News & Notes.

We're going to take a break, come back with our overreactions for 2024, try to set you on the straight and narrow. All right, apparently we have a drop for this segment, so I'm going to push that button right about now, right in the middle of when I'm going to talk. I'm not going to do what you all think I'm going to do, which is just flip out. I enjoy this show.

This is a good time. This is a great show. I will say this. I know when they... i'm so tickled by by the events of today by the events of today and then popping in with jay grizz at the most inappropriate time um but the sad part is is that when they play that drop for the audience listening if you're not on youtube watch on youtube at the youtube.com slash the fantasy footballers.

Jay Grizz got the camera. He got the close-up. But that means you couldn't see Andy and I's faces going, what just happened? But I know that we have other cameras recording our faces, and I want to see what our looks were during that moment, and we'll try to get that out on social. All right. Looking at, we each chose, I i believe two overreactions yes last year you had a home run with not overreacting to the and and

really i'm setting you up for your first one here because last year you cautioned us to not over react oh it was baltimore wasn't it uh it was the dallas cowboys offense getting rid of kellen moore wanting to run the ball more don't't worry about not throwing the ball enough. And lo and behold, Dak Prescott was all right at quarterback. CeeDee Lamb, I think wide receiver checks notes, won. So, yeah, the passing game was okay. And now here you go with pretty much a similar don't overreact. And I think it's appropriate because what made the Cowboys such a big, buzzy fear overreaction last year

was because how fun it was to simply react to the Cowboys. It's fun. And so we've got that position right here. It's fun to assume this and overreact to it. Which is the fact that you're going to have Jim Harbaugh and the high-T offense and Greg Roman befuddle and destroy Justin Herbert as a fantasy football option and not have any fantasy value pop up in the passing game.

This is our favorite narrative. Last year it was, like you said, Mike McCarthy. He wants to run the football. Score less points. Goodbye, Kellen Moore, and we're going to run it, and I'm going to call the plays, and it's going to ruin everything. I heard this a long time ago from, what was it, the Isaiah Crowell. Who's the Cleveland head coach?

I almost said Marvin Lewis, but it's not Marvin Lewis. Hugh Jackson. Yeah, your favorite. So, I mean, look, it's the NFL. Like, you can want to run it more, and he's going to do it. I mean, like Greg Roman and Harbaugh and and this team is going to become more high-T. But you know who is high-T as well? The Detroit Lions.

And that was an explosive passing game. It's about efficiency, and it's easy as fantasy players to swing the pendulum too far. We want an edge. We want an opportunity to say we know what's going to happen and it's going to be different than what people expect, and so we're going to lean in in one direction. And we forget that Justin Herbert is a a world beater at the position in fact

he was the quarterback one in points per game through six weeks last year jason he was uh you know you were a big fan of him going into the season he was he was averaging 23 and a half fancy points a game almost completing 70 of% of his passes. But Andy. Yes, sir. But they lost Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Yeah, it didn't much matter. It didn't much matter. Well, it didn't much matter.

They lost Williams early last year, and he was still leading. I see what you're saying. You're saying in this offseason. Yeah. Yes, there are things stacked up against our ability in our brains to see what's going to happen. And when that happens, we overreact. We don't have the recipe of the resurgence of Justin Herbert and which receiver is the one.

And because of that fog, it's easy to take the easy way out and say it's a Gus bus and it's four passes a game and they're just going to grind it out. I think one of the things that helps your argument there is talent matters. When you say you want to run the ball, like teams are like, we're going to run the ball so much. Well, when you're down a lot in the fourth quarter because you don't have a good team, you can't. You have to throw it. And so it's like the opposite is true.

The reason the Cowboys ended up throwing the ball so well last year is because they have CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott. Good options to do that. Justin Herbert's a great quarterback. You don't have Justin Herbert and be like, let's not use him. It's third and eight.

We're going to run the ball because I love testosterone. Let me throw some numbers out that are gonna be kind of interesting to you uh russell wilson 452 attempts 483 attempts 427 attempts 516 attempts these were years in seattle where and it wasn't like he was rushing for 800 yards in these years he was rushing 300, which is in the realm of possibility for Justin Herbert in a Greg Roman offense. He was finishing as the quarterback one, the quarterback four,

the quarterback five. You need efficiency. You need a touchdown rate that is higher than the league average. And Greg Roman, we have a lot of data to look at. Four years in San Francisco, two in Buffalo, four in Baltimore. Here's what we know about Greg Roman. They're going to win football games because he was double digit wins in like six of the 10 years he was, and almost, I think, one below 500 year. So they're going to win games. They're going to be very low in past attempts. I'm not fighting that narrative,

but the average touchdown percentage for his quarterbacks is 5.3% over a 10-year span. That's well above the league's average. Herbert's last couple of years, he's been lower. He's been at 3.6 and 4.4 in that offense. And, you know, if you're throwing 5.3%, just given the average, which, by the way, Lamar had a 9, a 6.9. He's had some higher years.

You need efficiency from Justin Herbert. If your offense moves the football and you have opportunities to throw it into the end zone, I just think it's being overvalued, this idea that the high-T offense is going to destroy him. And if you are in a four-point passing touchdown league and you throw 25 passing touchdowns and you run for three which is something he has done before and can do again that counts as like 30 passing touchdowns I was really surprised and that's conservative I was really surprised when he ended

up in he ended up in my top 10 quarterbacks and I was really surprised and part of that is the rushing volume that I expect to happen because you have last year before he was injured he was actually on pace for 323 rushing yards and 4.4 touchdowns so if you're telling me he has 350 370 rushing yards and four or five rushing touchdowns that will apps that will make a huge impact on fantasy football and just for you know context sake when i'm throwing out those attempt numbers this was a player who when he finished as the quarterback two had 672 attempts when he was the quarterback 11 he had 700 attempts that's insane and i'm telling you russell wilson put up top five numbers with 300 rushing yards with 470 attempts or 516 attempts. So the world of efficiency exists.

This is the National Football League. It favors the passing game. And I just think that is one of those situations where, look, don't go to my rankings on June 1st and expect to see Justin Herbert in the top five. It's about range of outcomes. It's about the upside of a player and not discounting them at a value in the draft when they could have a better than expected year. Also, Vlad McConkie is so good. Vlad McConkie?

Can I ask you a quick question? Yes. Do you have anything for me? I have been given a very quick turnaround time. The producers are trying to make up for today. I have a very formal, if you want to throw it onto my camera here, we have a golden ticket, one free Andy Holloway agreement. Oh, right.

Now, this is, I mean, I got one for you. You don't have like a whole sheet of them. No, but I've got a photocopy machine so you watch out no I got one just save it yeah I'll save it for the right moment and it will be used this season I won't forget I'm going to leave it right here

you'll have to figure out which of your bad arguments you want me to agree with well let's start with this bad argument I'm going to say let's not overreact to incoming rookies impacting established veterans more specifically there are elite running backs that come in and then there are good running backs that come in this is a draft class that was you know it was talked about that it was a really, really bad running back draft class. First of all, it was bad because there weren't really the elites of the elites, and there's not.

There is not a Bijan Robinson. There is not a Brees Hall. There is not a Jonathan Taylor. There is not a Saquon Barkley. However, Jonathan Brooks did go as the first running back off the board to a situation that wants to utilize his multi-purpose skill sets. He was, him and Trey Benson were at least the two best of this season in my view. They were the first two drafted in the NFL's view as well. So I take Jonathan Brooks out of this. We've seen recently where the second round, when you're the first or the second running back taken

and you're high in the second round, I mean, that is Jonathan Taylor. That is Brees Hall. Those guys were great. We loved them pre-draft, but running back position is mattering less and less, and so they drop in the draft. So I see Jonathan Brooks as a really good asset in fantasy and dynasty and all that. Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard are not incumbents that you should be like, well, they were so good that their job is secured. I'm talking about guys like last season,

Travis Etienne. Travis Etienne's a very good running back, but they spent a day to pick round three on Tank Bigsby. Still an absolute world-class running back name, but not a world-class running back performance. The world-class running back performance was Travis Etienne's when he finished as the running back three on the year despite a day two running back. We were also worried about uh Charbonnet I mean I I was very worried I loved Charbonnet's film and then a day two pick on

Kenneth Charbonnet so Kenneth Walker who did you say Kenneth Charbonnet I sure did I sure did because I was you're having a little I was on my way to Kenneth Walker. Yeah. So I did that. I apologize, Zach. Yeah. But Ken Bone Walker III, he was very good last year. He missed a couple games. He was still an RB2. Looked good on the field.

Was clearly ahead of Charbonnet. Charbonnet didn't come in here and overtake that role. You've got Alvin Kamara, who – Another day two running back, Kendra Miller, who is very good. We've been talking about him as a great sleeper pick this year, a great dynasty by low right now. But Kamara was fantastic. He was the running back six from week four on once he got back from his suspension. This year, we have the exact same thing happening. The day two running backs who are good, I'm not saying they're not.

I actually think Tank Bigsby was good. TBD, that looks like an early L. Kendra Miller is good, and he just missed most of his rookie season. Blake Corum, Andy, you liked Blake Corum. Very much. He gets day two draft capital, which is good. Round three. And so I think there's a lot of people that are like, Kyron is not off the board, but he just drops tremendously. They see this as a timeshare. Blake Corham had 27 rushing touchdowns, was a day two running back.

He's going to come in here and split time with Kyron Williams. Kyron Williams made this offense work. Kyron Williams was excellent. This is a system that has always employed a primary back, pretty much a one back system. No, no team outside of the, you know, Christian McCaffrey's whatever team he's on is a true one back system. The closest thing we've ever seen to that in recent memory was actually Kyron Williams last year. And I don't think they want to make him a 95% of snap player, but if he's 70%, that's outrageously high. And I'm not worried about Kyron Williams this year with Blake Corham. Same with Josh Jacobs. They drafted Marshawn Lloyd, a good back, in day two. But Josh Jacobs has the money. He is the veteran. He's going to get the job. James Conner, I love Trey Benson. That's my

running back one. James Conner has the job. Trey Benson isn't coming in here and going to be in a 50-50 timeshare. And even further, like round four, you had Jalen Wright and Bucky Irving, guys that some people really liked pre-draft. So you've got Raheem Mostert and Devon Achan, and you're going, oh, no, is Jalen Wright going to really take things away? No. The NFL needs depth. The NFL needs backups.

Running backs get hurt. This is a good draft pick. All these are good draft picks. I think all of those draft picks were good. That doesn't mean for fantasy purposes that Kyron Williams, Josh Jacobs, James Conner, Raheem Mostert, Devon Achan, and Rashad White take massive hits. In fact, I would say they don't take any hit because of the running back behind them unless they themselves start to suck.

It's a second year in a row for Rashad White doubters because last year people wanted to make Sean Tucker a thing and it was Rashad White uh it's even it's easier to write the narrative for the backup or the day two or the later pick when you don't necessarily love the starter but I think what people don't understand and we saw it Jameer Gibbs was a top uh he was picked 10 uh 12 12 10 12 top 15 pick. It took him time to get onto the football field behind David Montgomery and was a disappointment for fantasy managers early on, and his talent took time to, you know, there's more to running the football than running the football.

Does that make sense? Yeah. Or to being running back than running the football. Pass blocking, rapport with the offense, knowing what the teams are doing. These things, you don't just hand that to Marshawn Lloyd on day one.

You hand it to Marshawn Lloyd in week seven or eight when Josh Jacobs is running for 3.5 a carry. Yeah. You hand it to Blake Corum if Kyron Williams is a later round draft pick doesn't look like your future because he flames out or something but um i just don't want to

overreact i don't want to be off of these incumbents because there's another running back on the team there's always another running as you say people need to make peace with the fact that the depth chart at running back if you're not cmc is messy it just is everywhere it's messy in miami with multiple players that you love. Yeah, for sure. And it happens every year, and there's been multiple years of Seattle drafting a running back. And what was it, Rashad Penny when Chris Carson was there.

So do you, generally speaking, agree with this? We should not overreact to these running backs on day two drafted? Overreact, I generally agree, generally agree yeah okay i could put the golden ticket away oh boy this thing's getting spent quick if you're bringing it up right there all right we got one more each this one is it came out of my projections okay yeah brain as well but after doing player projections in preparation for the udk this one you would need a golden ticket to give me yeah well i look uh stay water my friend we do not like take lock i have never been a dj more truther but last year dj more was unbelievable the wide receiver six. The overreaction that I fear is that he is going to suffer this season

in a tremendous way at the hands of Keenan Allen, Roma Dunza, and Caleb Williams. DJ Moore was a dominant wide receiver one last season. One of my biggest surprises when I got done with the season was seeing Chicago's wide receiver production. And I've got DJ Moore sitting at wide receiver 13. So it's not wide receiver six, but I have him well above Keenan Allen. I am well above Roma Dunzey. And I'm going to tell you why the best talent on the roster. This is a 27 year old wide receiver. This is somebody going a little bit later than that wide receiver 13 in best ball because the doubts are out there. The reaction is out there. We like Roma Dunze. We know what

Keenan Allen did last year, but Keenan Allen is an older player. It's not explosive plays with Keenan Allen, and that is the name of the game for DJ Moore. He is such a great fit in the pass-heavy approach that they have in Chicago now. More three wide receiver sets where he was incredible. He was seventh in wide receivers in fancy points per route run and three wide receiver sets. That's the same as A.J. Brown.

The headline at the top of the stats here is that D.J. Moore is an elite wide receiver one. That's the headline. And that Roma Dunze is a rookie that's going to establish himself and make some plays, and that Keenan Allen is going to live underneath and probably not be targeted the same way he was with Justin Herbert at this stage of his career, at this stage of, you know, basically the last year of his deal.

And so, you know, they're going to see a lot of three wide with Shane Waldron, and he was exceptional in that situation, and I think a player like that demands the targets and will establish himself. He's played with a million different quarterbacks, but the consistent part of DJ Moore is you're going to have big plays, you're going to have big yards after the catch plays. And he has dominated on both of those.

So, look, Adunze, deep plays, he's going to make them. I think his future is very bright when Keenan Allen likely leaves after the season. But this, in my opinion, this is one more year for DJ Moore to be the guy in Chicagoago and i think it's hard for people to see that you said you disagree with me yeah um but i think dj more has it on lock for this entire season yeah i i do have a hard time agreeing with this simply because last year dj more was competing against tyler scott as the wide receiver three Chase Claypool um you still

had Darnell Mooney who represents the Adunze style deep threat I you know Adunze can work on all three levels of the field but I mean Darnell Mooney was the two now you've got Keenan Allen and you've got Roma Adunze so I I struggle to think that the target market share will be good enough from a rookie obviously if Caleb comes comes in and looks like cj stroud last year then you're going to have cj stroud or caleb uh dj moore keenan allen and a doomsday all looking good well we don't make arguments against jamar chase because he has t higgins and tyler boyd the last two years and that's the frame of reference i'm looking into i'm saying that that dj moore is a target demander his play on the field his separation the big plays he's a friend of

quarterbacks he made justin fields look good sometimes that's a hard thing to do as a passer but keenan allen is a target demander as well keenan allen is just a different receiver in every respect though but my point is they can't both get past the ball. So you just can't, you're not going to have one of these guys at 30% target share. I just can't fathom that unless one of them gets injured. But I think, I just think when you bring in a quarterback that's going to fix the situation as much as Caleb Williams has the potential to. This is a Caleb Williams take. That's what this is. My target share is 22.3% for DJ Moore. Last year, it was 28%. I have Keenan Allen's target share at 21.6%. Last year in All Alone Town with the Chargers, it was 24%. I've got a Doonesay at a respectable 16.4% as a rookie.

So this is about uh consolidation to the best and yes a caleb williams take that he can go out there and throw for 4 000 yards or around there and that's enough to me because the reason chase is fine we don't care that he's got teagans and has had tyler boyd is because joe burrows joe burrow and if if i knew for sure that caleb williams was going to come in here and cjoud rookie year one, I'd be right there with you. I really would. If I was going to put my chips on some player to be the – like if one of these wide receivers has a really good season,

it's not going to be Keenan Allen's dink and donk on a one-year contract as the elder statement statesman. And it's probably not going to be Roma Dunzay coming in as rookie. It'll be DJ Moore because he's super athletic and explosive. I think he's starting to – he's inching up that plant the flag territory for me so far. I am just – Got pretty strong conviction.

I'm still – like I like Caleb Williams a lot. I think he's very, very talented. And I believe he'll be a great quarterback. But I'm still betting on history that rookie year quarterbacks, you know, you're throwing 20 touchdowns you're throwing you're you're you're you're throwing um you know closer to 60 completion than 68 completion you're you know rookie year quarterbacks they they have their struggles what if i told you that the super quarterback that helped dj more the entire season threw for 2500 yards and 16 touchdowns last i would revert you back to the

argument of who the other options were at the time. Because that doesn't always happen though. No, no, no. But 28% target share is what he had last year. Yeah. Because there was no one else throwing balls. I'm just saying his quarterback threw 16 touchdowns. So if you want to break up eight extra touchdowns, if you tell me Caleb Williams can

get to 22 to 24. How many games did he play? Justin Fields? Yeah. He missed four games yeah so he didn't just he could have almost got to 3020 you're right thank you yeah all right we disagree there that's an overreaction i think that will drive dj moore's price down and everyone but jason can take advantage of it so jason what is your second overreaction yeah i will uh get to my second overreaction here my second overreaction is to not... Let me find it.

Are you losing your place? I am losing my place. I thought we were going to break, so I was completely unprepared. I feel like a producer right now. We are going to break. All right, thank you. I was just playing with you. See, we went to break.

Thank you. Now, what I wanted to to talk about have you been able to find your place oh yeah dude this my place was after the break yes so this is like clear where i come in don't overreact to the break that is you think is happening right where were you 10 minutes it might not happen yeah tell me afterwards um i don't want to overreact and this one I'm not sure if you'll agree with like you agreed with my last one but I don't want to overreact the guys who played poorly last year due to injury I don't want to double count the injury players that we've done so many studies uh you know we've got Matthew Betts. He updates his study every year. He does so much work in the injury sphere for us where we look and see people coming back from

significant injuries. Usually that's ACLs. They are not as good the first year back as they are the second year back. It takes players to time to get back to full strength, to the same kind of statistical metrics they were at prior to the injury. And so last year, I want to bring up some players that we saw that sucked, but that were playing injured. And I just want to make sure we don't double count it. Javante Williams. Javante Williams was not supposed to play to start last year. It was off of our radar that he was going to actually start. We didn't believe it until all of a sudden we hear, oh, he's going to play in the preseason. It's like, no, he's not. Not with that injury.

That's impossible that he would be back on that timeline. And lo and behold, he was out there in preseason. They used him. They still loaded him up with 275 opportunities despite his inefficiency. But remember how catastrophic his injury was. We could not possibly have expected him to come back off of that injury on that timeline and really be good last year. Like, that would be such an outlandish outlier type of performance and I know like you say oh Brees Hall had an ACL yeah that came to mind Brees Hall's injury was nowhere near like Javante's we talked about this isn't hindsight

and that's what I want to like remember is that this isn't this isn't something we're only saying now after the fact this was what we were saying before going into the season last year we weren't scared about breeze hall we were terrified about giovante williams but giovante williams went out and did exactly what we were terrified of and now it's like well he's done he's you know it's just like he sucked there's a there's a percentage chance that he is yeah and so he was injured he was inefficient you don't want to double count the injury because you still believe he's young enough to have a to come out and year two Absolutely. And I know

you've statted him that way. I did. More than I did. I was pretty bullish because I the depth chart to me says he's going to get the opportunities again. Samaj P. Ryan is nothing. I don't even know if he makes his roster He likes, you know, Peyton likes McLaughlin. That's fine. He can get

his carries. He's got some juice. And they drafted Audra Kestame. And this time of year, it's like, oh, they drafted Audra Kestame. But halfway through the year, we'll be like, oh, yeah, they drafted a fifth-round running back that doesn't make an impact. For the record, that's where I'm at already. Well, you and I didn't like Audra Kestame already. And thankfully, Mike's not here, right? Yeah. Because he actually thought that that guy could move his legs faster. Just a big old bear. You know, I saw Peyton actually talk about how he liked how fast Audra Gastame, like, quick feet.

I was like, what? He might know better. Did you watch him? Anyways, this isn't just a dunk on Audrick Estimate time. Other players that were coming back off of injury that might have been disappointing last year, Kyler Murray, first year back from ACL. You would not expect him to be great. He also did not have a great receiving core.

But his 17-game pace, once he was back, was 3,822 yards passing with 21 passing touchdowns, 5, 18, and 6 on the ground. He was quarterback nine in points per game from week 10 on, first year back from an ACL injury in this offense without any good weapons. And I believe during that time, Marquise Brown was like the fourth target in this offense. He basically wasn't even around. So when you say, oh, you're adding Marvin Harrison, you're really not even subtracting Hollywood from what we saw.

And then the last name, again, these are overreactions. These are, you know, Javante Williams I think people are overreacting to, Kyler Murray overreacting, and Kyle Pitts. I know it's a fun, crazy name to talk about every single year because it's like, well, but this year it's going to happen. We found out this is a little bit more hindsight because we questioned it during the year watching him. Yeah, he did not look himself. He didn't look himself.

We talked about it through the season. It's like, man, this guy looks like Antonio Gates sometimes out there, especially when he's trying to make a cut. But Kyle Pitts had an MCL and PCL injury that he was struggling with. He had that and then played through it all year, and it looked bad. But if he is just now turning 24 years old, in fact, he won't turn 24 until October, so he'll start the season at 23. He led all tight ends in air yards. Always does.

He gets a quarterback upgrade that can make those air yards near him right which is um really really nice pits ranked fourth in tight ends in slot fantasy points and slot fantasy points per target you know this is a better system coming in a better quarterback and if what we saw was a player year one from a major injury last year, then you have an opportunity that maybe that's just, he needs another year to recover. We see it all the time. And this is, this is grounded in analytics that year two back from these big injuries, the players are just better, especially when they're, when they're younger, Javante Williams, Kyler Murray, Kyle Pitts, they are all young enough where we can kind of excuse some of what we saw last year

because of the fact that they're human beings coming off of a massive injury. Give them another year, and none of them lost their opportunity. Like, none of them are not going to be given the chance to be great week one. And I'm going to say I'm not going to overreact to what we saw last year on those guys. So your three my guys, Javante Williams, Kyler Murray, Kyle Pitts. You heard it. You heard it here. Yeah, I mean, there's a – like you said,

there's a difference between buying like a stupid injury dip on a player on the backside of their career, a la Allen Robinson switching teams, and you're like, oh, it's going to be good for him with a new opportunity than it is a younger player that didn't lose an opportunity that um that still has a lot of potential to shape his and i'm glad you brought up the phrase injury dip because we said before like don't buy the injury dip that's usually a bad mistake but the injury dip is when a player is injured and so he's dropping an adp and it's like oh man i going to get a value on him.

But you're drafting an injured dude. This is the exact opposite. This is finally drafting a healthy dude. You're buying the healthy dip. Javante, look, you said I might not agree. I agree on the Pitts front. I agree on the Kyler front. But not on the Javante front.

But not on the Javante front. Are you using the golden ticket already? No, I'm just flashing it around, you know, showing my mad stacks over here. Yeah, that's good for the pod. YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers. Yeah, well. Okay, well, without further ado,

we do have one more conversation to be had. A big one. And we'll talk some rookie quarterbacks. You talking to me? All right. The fantasy footballers are excited to welcome in Hall of Famer, NFL legend, local legend for us out here. Cardinal hero.

In Arizona. And one heck of an analyst, Kurt Warner, to the show. Thank you, Kurt, for joining us. You got it. Thanks for having me on. Always good to be able to sit down with some Phoenicians and some guys in the area that understand the landscape of football here in Arizona. So good to be on.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. You know, personal thanks for January 18th, 2009. We were all at that game. Oh, yeah. But but let me settle one thing here at the top. We wanted to talk about some of these rookie quarterbacks with you and and get some thoughts at the position. You know, we're fantasy football podcast. We're a fantasy football podcast. And, you know, every fantasy football player is eager to find that next great quarterback. So we'll talk about that.

But at the top, I just want to make sure we're all in a complete consensus agreement. Santonio Holmes did not get both feet down. We agree? You know, those are things I'm never going to agree on. Whether he got that other toe down or not, the throw, the catch, the effort, it was just incredible. It's just one of those plays that you just

got to tip your hat and go, come on. Ben should have never thrown it. We have three guys in the area. Antonio should have never been close to catching it, yet made the perfect throw, made the catch. Whether that toe scraped the turf or not yes i don't really know but it was one heck of an effort because

we're sitting here and we can't definitively say whether he touched it or not which to me makes it close enough uh in a moment like that where you gotta you gotta tip your hat and give it to him you're a better man than me kirk because because I know the truth. He did not. I said I'm 10, 15 years away from accepting it, so I'm getting there. I'm getting there. But, look, like I said, this is a fantasy football show. I am curious, before we talk about some of those rookies, what's your relationship been like with the fantasy football world,

whether in your playing days or as the NFL and the fantasy game has evolved in your time since leaving the NFL? Probably love-hate, you know, in terms of fantasy. I've played, you know, numerous times, played in leagues with, you know, a family and some friends and what have you, you know, played in some bigger celebrity leagues? The only problem I have with fantasy football, because first and foremost, it's awesome for our game. And it's awesome for the fact that we get so many fans that buy in that may not be what I would call a diehard fan. You know, watch no matter what, have their team. But they get engaged and they become fans of our game and they become fans of our players and they've taken the game to another level because of the fun and the interaction of fantasy football. I say love-hate because if you're more of a true football fan, the problem for me is when

I watch it and I'm cheering for my fantasy team as opposed to watching it the way that I would normally watch it and watch it as a purist and enjoy the moments and enjoy the performances of different guys. Now it becomes, oh, my guys on the other team or, oh, he's playing against instead of just man, that was one heck of a run. That was an unbelievable play. What a great game that was. And you get hung up with, did I score enough points on my team? And, you know, so that's where I fight the battle because I want to cheer for guys. I want to cheer for the game. I want to watch it and enjoy the moment.

And I think sometimes fantasy football can take away from that aspect of things. You know, and I also think, you know, for a true fan, meaning, hey, I'm a diehard such and such. I'm a diehard Cardinals fan. I'm a diehard Steelers fan. That can also mess up your fandom a little bit because, you know, well, I want the Cardinals to win, but I got two guys on the other team on my fantasy team. So I want them to score a touchdown.

But really, I don't want them to score a touchdown. And, you know, it just kind of messes with your mind, but you know, all in all, I think it's a great thing for our game and continues to build what our game is just more as a pure football fan. I wrestle with it quite often. Yeah, no, that, that makes sense. And, and this show in particular, we do try to focus on the entertaining aspects and the

the way it accents the nfl game even though we know how how those realities can meet sometimes oh yeah even personally when i was a season ticket holder and going to the games it's like i hated when i had someone playing against the cardinals because it was like oh i want to win but let's go march on it's like let's win by enough to where march on can score a couple times yeah right um we've been doing a today's show has been all about overreactions to some of the things that happen with the news in the off season um we just had the nfl draft uh which was spectacular and we had 12 quarterbacks go or sorry six quarterbacks go in the top 12 picks. So, you know, historically, rookie quarterbacks, from a fantasy perspective, it's hard to trust them in year one.

There are growing pains. It seems like five of the six are going to have opportunities in year one. The one that likely on the bench, Michael Penick's waiting on Kirk Cousins' time in Atlanta. But we've also seen players like C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert in years past, have very big statistical seasons right out of the gate. So when you look at that crop of incoming rookies, I'm just curious if you think the trend of young rookies having more of an impact

is going to continue, and is that a product of the way the game is played now? What do you think about that situation? Yeah, I mean, you know, I think there is two ways to look at it is that, you know, the nature of our game now, you're usually not that far away from success. You know, you look at Houston, you know, as a team that's picking number two overall. And so oftentimes you see number two overall teams and you say, oh gosh, they're a long ways from having success. And they're a long way from their quarterback being able to have success.

That's not necessarily the case anymore is that, you know, you can be one year away with free agency, the parody in our league from being really, really successful. I think Caleb Williams is in a great situation as well. They go out and get a bunch of weapons around him, giving him an opportunity to put up some numbers. Whether their team wins or not, obviously fantasy football isn't all based on that. So, you know, you've got some teams that have, and some young quarterbacks that have some really good weapons and players around them. And the nature of the league says, okay, if you've got players around you, you're going to have a level of success. It's just a matter of what level is that. And, you know, I think that's the hard thing to always project for many of these guys is I always say all these guys have to get better in the NFL if they're going to be great quarterbacks. None of them can stay who they were in college. But I do think we've got some situations that lend itself to, you know, some of these young quarterbacks having the opportunity to have, you know, a successful year by, you know, fantasy standards,

putting up numbers because of some of the playmakers around them. Yeah, I mean, we talked earlier about J.J. McCarthy's situation in Minnesota. You come into a very productive season from a rookie in Jordan Addison last year. You've got Justin Jefferson, obviously, a play caller that I think is very trusted. Out of those, maybe take Caleb Williams out of the list, but those other five names, did you have a player there that what you saw in film really impressed you and gave you the impression that they could have early success? Well, I mean, I think there's things to like about all of these guys. And, you know, so much of it is fit, situation, you know, are they going to ask you to play the game the way that you can play the game but I mean if you just watch the tape from a year ago in college football I mean Jaden Daniels

was spectacular I mean he was phenomenal he was the best player even above Caleb in my opinion in terms of you know on the field last season he played the best quarterback of anybody again I don't know how that directly translates because he's going to have to be better. But with what I saw and the way he made throws and the decisions that he made and the fact that he's a pocket passer, and I think they've got some really good weapons in Washington, that I think he's got a chance to have success without a doubt. J.J. McCarthy, you mentioned him earlier. I mean, you had T.J. Hawkinson. You had Aaron Jones, two guys that can make the game easier for a quarterback with short throws,

kind of work in the underneath areas, along with arguably the best wide receiver in the league, and a rookie, as you said, that showed he could be a number one when Justin was out last year. So I love the weapons around him. Plus, four guys in their offensive line are number one when Justin was out last year. So I love the weapons around him. Plus, you know, four guys in their offensive line are number one picks, you know, our first round picks. And so, you know, you look at the guys up front and you say, okay, they got a pretty good mix up front too that can help their young quarterback. Now I'll say this, you know, of all the quarterbacks that we're talking about, you know, he's the guy that is, you know, less established, I guess you'll say, in terms of showing what he can be on an every week basis, showing that he can carry a team, showing that he can make 35 throws a game and be really successful with it. We didn't get to see that in college.

But I do think that the supporting cast in Minnesota lends itself to say if he becomes the starter, he's got an opportunity to put up some really, really good numbers because he's got pieces at every level in every area to allow you to complement one another and allow you to have success. Let me ask the opposite. We didn't see a lot of J.J. McCarthy. Don't have a ton of film. We saw 752 collegiate games from Bo Nix.

We have 22 years of him playing college football I'm really curious because this is the player that from pre-draft to after round one I kind of went back and watched the tape and I'm I'm trying to look at how he fits in in you know the the system there for Peyton and all of that and I have not actually seen your take on Bo Nix I'm sure you've said it a million times but I'm curious from your perspective right this is a guy who's about preparation and timing and you know the on-time accuracy which reminds me a lot of like how you were as a player and most of the people that I've seen are like second round grades on Bo Nix obviously that wasn't Sean Peyton's what is Kurt Warner's, what was your pre-draft grade on just the player in the film that you saw?

And did that change at all with the landing spot going 12 to, to Sean Payton? Yeah, I think all of these guys, the top six guys have a lot of positives about them and all of them have some questions that you have going into the NFL. And so, you know, Bo Nix was no different, that there was a lot of positives. I looked at the Bo Nix tape and said, if there's one quarterback that was asked to do more of what you're going to be asked to do at the NFL level than any of the other guys, it was Bo Nix. They asked him to see the field. They asked him to see more combinations. They asked him to get the ball out on time, to go through reads. It wasn't a lot of this pure progression stuff.

And so from that standpoint, I think he showed us that of all of these guys, when you're talking about asking him to make NFL-type reads, play in and play out, his offense was the most NFL-like of all of these guys. And so to me, it goes, okay, that means he's probably going to have a chance at the NFL level. You couple him with, you know, with Sean Payton, and you say, well, that's exactly what they did with Drew Brees. Drew Brees was an accurate quarterback,

get the ball out of his hands, wasn't asked to wing the ball down the field every snap, but get the ball out and get it to the right guy. And they're going to ask him to do a lot if they go back to playing that brand of football. So I think it's a really, really good fit. The one thing you see with Bo Nix is that he didn't push the ball down the field a whole bunch. And again, this is always an interesting take. And I was tweeting about it the other day is we throw around the term arm strength all the time. I saw, I saw his arm strength mean, like, what are we talking about? You know, you hear these guys say, Oh, you don't need arm strength. And then the other guys,

Oh my gosh, does he have enough arm? And I'm like, what do you mean? Like, what, what is it? What's the definition of arm strength? Because all of these guys can throw it probably farther than I ever could. Right. So they can make all the throws that you're going to ask them to make against air. Can they throw an 18 yard comeback? Can they throw a 20 yard dig? Yeah. All of these guys can do it for me. Arm strength comes down to when, you know, when, when things aren't perfect around you, when the pocket isn't perfect and you can't step into it and, and drive your throws, now I want to know, can you make the second level throws? Can you make those chunk throws, 15 to 35 yards when you're off platform, when you got a guy in your face? That to me, and again, I don't even like

to use arm strength because I think most times in those situations, it's more about creating power with your body and understanding how to do that than it is to have a really strong arm meaning I can just if I was just winging it with my arm I can throw it farther than other guys and so you know I'm gonna liken Bo Nix based on what I've seen in college to a guy like Daniel Jones Daniel Jones to me was a really good college player that he did a lot they asked him to do a lot you know he made a lot of plays, but the question I had coming out with him was arm strength. And again, you watch Daniel throw and he's going to throw it farther than I could ever throw it. And he could throw the balls down.

That's not the problem is when things aren't right around him, can he make those kinds of throws? And that's something that he struggled with in the NFL he has struggled to be able to do that doesn't have any problem when the profit pocket is perfect which it hasn't been very often for Daniel Jones but when it is he can step in and drive the throws and Bo Nix is no different but that's my question with Bo Nix like you can turn on the tape and see him make NFL type throws but I haven't seen him make a lot of those throws when things are falling apart around him. You know, when he's got that pressure on him and now he's got to create that power, you know, without being able to drive through with his feet or lead or get momentum going in that direction. So that's my question for him. And when I talk about arm strength, that's what I mean is the ability to create a pace on the football when things aren't perfect, because in the NFL, very seldom are they perfect. You don't live in that perfect world. And that's the question for me, he's going to have to answer. And I'm not sitting here saying

he can't do it. I'm just saying, I didn't get to see it enough where I'm fully confident that he can be that guy. You know, and so that's the big question for me with Bo Nix. But I like the situation that he's going into. If they're going to play more, you know, I'll say Drew Brees-esque, asking him to see the field and deal the football. I think he's got a chance to be very, very successful. I mean, most accurate quarterback of these guys last year.

So he's got a lot of really good tools, but he's going to have to be able to do what I just talked about to be able to elevate himself to become one of the really, really good quarterbacks at the NFL level. Yeah, a lot of really good thoughts there. And I did see that tweet when you were talking about arm strength. I also saw you talking about some of the mental aspects of the game, being able to read defenses. It's funny because we go through the combine process, right? And we see running backs without

pads running straight lines, right? And evaluate that speed. And that kind of seems like a parallel to, okay, we watched Zach Wilson throw one really nice deep ball with no one rushing at him on video, and he's going to be a superstar. So do you think there are some blind spots there in quarterback evaluation that are simply blind spots because we don't have the ability to quantify them, go and measure them, but they're intangibles? Without a doubt. Another part of that tweet exchange that I had is just the idea that we fall in love with this idea that you can't teach speed. You can't teach arm strength. You can't teach body size. I get it. I understand the point and there's validity

to the point, but I'm also a firm believer that just as hard as it is to teach those things, it's that hard to teach a quarterback to process at the NFL level. So you have to think fast and react properly and be able to see and get the ball out of your hands in a positive manner and make those throws that you have to make that that's just as difficult as teaching a guy to run faster. Right. And so I think we lose sight of that when you talk about blind spots, I think that's a blind spot is that we think, Oh, I can teach him to process. I can't teach him to throw at 70 yards where I'm completely the opposite. Like if my guy can process and he can only throw at 55 yards, I can work with that. You can run an offense that way.

If he can get it out on time and he can have anticipation, if you only can throw it 55 yards, that's all you need. Very seldom in a game do you see guys throwing it farther than that anyways. And so I think that's the lost part of it. And I think it's lost because we don't have a way to evaluate it. I don't know if a guy can process at the NFL level till he shows me he can process at the NFL level. I can give him any test I want to give him.

Oh God, I'm going to have him hit, you know, lights on a wall. Right. Faster than everybody else. Or I'm going to ask him to, to remember this play for 10 minutes while I talked to him about something

else. And now he can regurgitate what I just told him, put it on a board. I don't care. None of that has anything to do with can he run this play and run it effectively and have all the answers and think fast and all of that. I've seen lots of guys that can take three minutes on a play on a board and give me every detail that I need to know about that play on the board to the point where you're just like, wow, this guy knows it all. Yet it takes him six seconds to process that three minutes on a football. Yeah. Yeah. CJ Stroud did. I got to do it in four seconds. Really bad on his S2. Yeah. Who's that?

I was just saying CJ Stroud last year, you know, he failed that S2 test, you know, people worried about, can he process? I don't even know what, yeah, I don't even know what that S2 really entails. But, yeah, I mean, I got people talking to me all the time. It's like, okay, you know, I'm going to do this. I even had a quarterback coach reach out to me today, and he goes, what do you think about in between plays, you know, if I give my guys trivia or if I ask them to do a crossword

or I've seen people go, we're going to make them play chess in between throwing a route. So they have to think. And I just sit back and go, what does that have to do with anything? Like, I don't know what that has to do with anything. Like, in a game, I don't really care if he's thinking about chess in between plays. I just want to think about the play that I'm giving him. Like, can you run the play that I'm giving you?

And I think CJ Stroud is a great example of that where, yeah, we did this test and we're like, let me play. Kid plays football. You knew it in about 10 minutes, right? 10 minutes of watching him. He's got great technique. He gets the ball out quick. And, you know, the funny thing about C.J. and I talk about all the time and I got people from Ohio State fans that argue with me.

But when I watched C.J. Stroud on film in college, I thought he was a good player, like really good player, had a chance to be really good in the NFL. I did not see him play football the way that he did last year with Houston. They weren't asking him to do the same things. They played a short to mid-range game last year, getting the ball out of his hands, seeing it, you know, quick release. I didn't see that at Ohio State. Didn't mean he wasn't a good quarterback. I just didn't see everything that C.J. Stroud was. And that's another aspect to this is that some guys don't get a chance to be all that they can be at the college level. And, you know, J.J. McCarthy could be an example of this.

He didn't have to do all of that. We didn't ask him to do those things. I got it. I don't know if he can because you didn't ask him to. But maybe he's just a sleeping giant where it's like, I can do all that. I didn't even get asked to do it. And CJ showed us that last year as he played at such a high – I thought he was a top five quarterback in the NFL last year.

And I did not see that on tape. I did not see him being able to do that the way that he did and as quickly as he did. And he's a great example of we don't know. We don't know until you're asking somebody to do it, whether they're capable of doing it the way they need to. And that falls into all of these questions. Caleb, you could go back to Caleb.

He's got the best body of work of all these guys. When you look at the two and a half years that he's got, you've seen him do everything. But last year he lived being creative. I need to see him process in the pocket. I saw a Chicago Bears quarterback for two years that lived being creative. He was a great athlete. He made a lot of plays, but he didn't play on schedule in the pocket.

And so he was very inefficient and they didn't win games because of it. Caleb is going to have to be more efficient in the pocket than he was last year. Seen him do it at times. Can he live in that world? I don't know. And so there's questions with all of these guys that I can't answer for you. You know, I would have a better idea if I could sit down in a room and go through tape and ask him these questions.

And I didn't get a chance to do that. Obviously, the teams get a chance to do that. But even with all of that said, you can sound really, really good in a room, right? There's guys in this league that are really, really impressive in a room that, you know, take the Wunderlich test and get 36s on the Wunderlich test. And there's guys like me, I don't know what I got, but I didn't do very well. And, you know, but I can process information. You give me a play and, and that's the other thing is like, they'll take you into a room process information you give me a play and and that's the other thing is like they'll take you into a room and they'll give you a play and then they'll talk to you about your

family and then they come back to the play 10 minutes later and i've always asked like what does that do for me like if you're you're not i'm gonna you're gonna give me a play on monday and i gotta run it on sunday i'm gonna go over that play a million times so by sunday i'm ready like you're not to give me a play and then say, oh, forget about it. Oh, I'll come back to it in 10 minutes and go run it. We're just trying to fool ourselves, I think, sometimes by trying to come up with this thing. Well, man, he could regurgitate this. Just trying to measure what that means. Trying to measure something. Yeah.

I want my guy to take as much time as he needs throughout the week so he's ready to run it on Sunday. I'm not going to try to hold it back from him and see if he can run it on the spot. And so, you know, that stuff to me is where there's so much disconnect and so many blind spots and so many things that we don't know until we know. And it's why the quarterback position is a crapshoot every year. It's 50, 50 with first round picks. And then, you know, the other aspect too,

and I'm just going to go back to Chicago is sometimes these guys are thrown in before they're ready. And so Justin Fields was thrown in and asked to be a starter in the NFL before he was ready. And when you do that, not only was he not ready, but the team wasn't ready. And so over the last four years, he struggled to really grow and get better at being a pocket passer because they threw him the ball and said, go be competitive. We don't have the piece around you. You're not really ready. Take the ball and go be competitive. So what are you going to do? You're going to go out there and do what you've always done. And I'm going to run around and try to make plays and make as many plays as I can. And now after, you know, this many years, it's like, Hey, we've got to let him

go because he hasn't shown us he can be that guy. Well, you know, we forced him almost to be a different kind of guy and he did the best that he could do. But it's unfortunate for him that he didn't get a chance to grow. And that becomes the other aspect is how many of these guys are going to be thrown in too early and not be able to grow into what they could become. Right. Some guys, Andrew Luck, it didn't matter. We can throw him in early. He's got all the pieces. He'll continue to grow while we struggle or as we work through this. Not everybody is like that. Some guys get crushed. Some guys need more time to really focus in on what they need to get better at, and they get

thrown in. In two or three years, we're not not convinced and boom, we're on to the next guy. And so that becomes another element. You know, you think about a Drake May. What's his makeup? You know, can he go into a team that doesn't have a lot of weapons around him and be successful and be able to work through that and get better at the things he needs to get better at?

Or is it going to be, here's the ball, Drake. Yeah, you don't have a lot of help. Just go see what you can do. And now he gets lost trying to be this playmaker instead of learning and growing in the game. Let's say like a Jordan Love. Jordan Love probably wasn't ready to be a full-time starter, but he got a chance to grow into the position sitting on the bench for a couple of years. And we all saw what he was able to do and how he got better and how he was ready for the moment because he was able to grow for a couple years as a quarterback by the time he became a starter last year yeah yeah I first of all they should bring

Kurt Warner into the room with these guys as they evaluate them I would love that I would love that and and second of all uh yeah you're going to see it because five of these six guys are probably going to play early. Real quick, did you agree with the Michael Penix Jr. move? Did you agree with the pick? Disagree with the pick? Lots of opinions. I'm just curious what your reaction was. Yeah, I didn't agree with the pick. Yeah. And not because I thought Michael Penix was probably the third best quarterback in this draft off of tape. Like, I don't know. I'm not in the room. So I don't know how you manage, you know, three season ending injuries and how you put that in there and what you think of that. So I don't know about all that drafting stuff. But just on, you know, tape over the last two years, Michael Penix, to me, was right up there with those other guys in terms of how he threw the football.

And so I don't disagree with it from the standpoint that he's a top 10 pick or that he, you know, was right there slated ahead of some of those other guys. I don't have a problem with that at all. I just I just don't under. And again, we all know that if everything works out perfectly for Atlanta, this could be a great pick. I just don't know what that perfect scenario was in that room when they were talking about it. If you're giving Kirk this money, then you have to expect that he's going to play out those four years. At least I have to expect that if you're going to pay him that much. Going out and getting him and making that commitment to him. I feel like there's a part of that that says, Hey, we made this commitment to Kirk. We need to give him an opportunity to live up to this commitment, not bring another guy in. Um, and then, you know, that's the other piece is that you bring him in and what are we hoping for? Are we hoping we get two years out of Kirk and then, and then we get Michael to play, or we

hope when we get all four years out of Kirk? And now we're going to have to pick up a fifth-year option? Yeah, Michael's 30 by then. And pay a guy that's never played? He won't be that old. And there's other guys that have been pretty good coming in the league. So that's possible. So that's possible.

Long careers in the NFL now. But, again, I just don't know what the scenario was where they were saying, this is what we're thinking, right? We're thinking two years from Kirk, and then Michael will get his shot, and he'll be the Jordan Love. Well, I don't think that's quite fair to Kirk Cousins, who left the situation to go to Atlanta, believing he got four years, believing this was his team for four years.

Now, if you're changing that dynamic, and again, I get it. He made a lot of money and all of that. But there's decisions that go into picking up your family and moving them. And what's my career going to be? Where do I feel comfortable? Why am I going somewhere else? And so without knowing this was a possible piece there, I don't like the decision because I don't understand.

Yeah, I don't understand the room, and I also don't understand, you know, what you're trying to sell to Kirk Cousins, who I believe deserves because of how he's played. He deserves the opportunity to play out his contract without having, you know, all of this going on around him. Same page. Yeah, it just feels like it's bad for everyone involved.

Bad for the rookie, bad for the vet, bad for the other teammates that, I don't know, wanted help to win right now, and the fans. I don't know who won. Yeah, that was tough. Before we let you go, and I want to thank you again for spending the time with us talking through these players. Um, very much appreciate it. I want you to know Rich Eisen, your boy over there, he played with us last year, pretty competitive player.

So if you ever want to dip the toe back into the world, maybe competitively take him down a notch. Cause I mean, I've got to be honest. He was, he was talking some trash. Oh, yeah, that's rich for sure. You're always welcome. So, again, thank you very much. Kurt Warner joining us on the show today. And thanks again, Kurt.

You got it, guys. All right, fun conversation as we conclude this overreaction episode. Breaking news, Jason. I don't know if you knew this. There will be more overreaction episode. Breaking news, Jason. Oh, yeah. I don't know if you knew this. There will be more overreactions over the course of the next several months

before the season kicks off, including that one. And we'll handle all of that. Try to see through all the coach speak and the camp drama and get you to where you're prepared for your fantasy draft, which the Ultimate Draft Kit can help you with as well at ultimatedraftkit.com. So without further ado, we're out of here. Maybe Mike will be back next week. Maybe the producers will learn about timing.

Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on twitter at the ff ballers