Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - The TRUTH: QBs Part 2 + Deep Dives, Pendulum Swings - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/21

Episode Date: January 21, 2025

More TRUTH about the QB position on today’s fantasy football podcast! C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, and many others! Get a deep dive look at consistency numbers, weekly performances, and future outlooks. Plus, reactions to an exciting Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for January 21st, 2025. Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Check out today's sponsors: News & Notes presented by USAA. Visit https://USAA.com/Insurance Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit airtransat.com for details, conditions apply. Air Transat, travel moves us. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in! Tuesday January 21st, Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway, the fantasy footballers back at ya. It was a good weekend of football. I don't know if I'm looking forward to, I mean it was, it was a good weekend of football,

it was a wild weekend, lots to talk about. We've got our Truth series going on right now. Part two of the quarterbacks, but I can't tell you how much I'm looking forward to Buffalo Kansas City. Very much. I rewatched the epic of the comeback every time I watch that I'm still blown away by the reality of it where they throw a touchdown pass and there's 13 seconds left on the clock for the Chiefs and They give up two plays, you know, you stop one or you make one short. It's over There's no chance the fact they won those men

Those were the good old days because I don't think that's what we're gonna get at all. Those two teams are not the same. No, and one of those two teams is the worst. Just the absolute worst. I don't- Full turn. Yeah, I don't wanna always go with kind of the mob mentality when it comes to, oh, the referees andes and oh look we should appreciate greatness and all this stuff Like no, they they're really annoying like Patrick Mahomes

Dives Yeah, he's oh, it's a flop dude This is the flop at the end where the ref didn't call it and it was just, it was full soccer flop. Shameful. That's like, that is shame upon your house and shame upon your name. Get that crap out of here. We need like-

Harsh penalties for flops. Yes, quick through. We gotta get this through of the, we can take the New York, New York can look at face masks if they happen, if they didn't, the helmet the helmet the the call on That my homes did get and you're like, oh I can see what the ref saw with the whiplash of the head But he was he was nowhere near it that and then flopping

Flopping is a 15 yard foul flopping should be penalized for sure so that you don't not incentivize doing it because in truth It's a smart play like he should do that if this was if I'm a Chiefs fan I'd be like why didn't you throw your hands up and fall over because draw the penalty but nothing to lose only 15 yards to gain yeah first down 100% so I put a poll out this morning because I love I love greatness I I grew up I mean we all did we grew up diehard Phoenix Suns fans like in Arizona that was all there was and our Charles Barkley era we we didn't get a championship

Why because of Michael Jordan Michael Jordan stopped us from having enjoyment in life Do not love Michael Jordan everyone loved Michael. You didn't get tired of watching Jordan Jordan. You were like, that's greatness. I want that. I wasn't tired of watching the homes win championships when it was fun. And when they were like a, an entertaining team that didn't seem like this boring plotting villainous villainistic, you know, that's new type of team. So I put a poll out this morning. I said in the year 2025, how do you feel about the Kansas City Chiefs? Three options.

I'm a Chiefs fan. I still like the Chiefs. I can't stand the Chiefs. And 76% are on I can't stand the Chiefs. I mean, there's always gonna be a vote for jealousy, right? When another team is doing well, but this is, you know. Chiefs fans got to get it, right? Mahomes doesn't control the late hit call.

He doesn't control the sliding. I mean, that call was terrible. The slide, the half slide Texans players colliding and they call the pin. That was a terrible, awful call, but he doesn't control that call. the side-line, the flopping. He controls the Vlad A. Divac. And that part is kind of eye-roll. And they just, they seem to win these games in ways where it's slow and plotting, and the other team just barely falls short, and you just barely get it done. And... Well, I've got good news for you. Right now, it appears to be 23 degrees and 17 mile an hour winds for the upcoming season of the U.S. Open. And that's a pretty good thing. just barely falls short and you just barely get it done and Well, I've got good news for you right now

It appears to be 23 degrees and 17 mile an hour wins for the upcoming contest So I don't think we're gonna get that crazy amazing back-and-forth affair. All we need is one where the Bills win So But I mean that was not you know, the the chiefs beating the Texans was not the surprise of the weekend the surprise of the weekend was The legend that is being built in Washington the commanders 45 the Lions 31 the turnovers the performance of Jaden Daniels I Tweeted it not to twist the knife just the reality

I mean that the commanders are everything that people thought the Bears would be. Yeah? With, you know. Wow. They really are. They are. The rookie that could lead you to a Super Bowl, the defense that performed well, and that has to hurt. I know it hurts for Bears fans.

I got close friends that are Bears fans, and I'm sorry. You just got Ben Johnson. Yeah, you got the bell of the ball. And hopefully that, I mean, you did everything you could do this off season now, getting Ben Johnson to give yourself a shot, but there's just this quick finality with the playoffs. It is just hard, it's just like 15 and two,

the line, and it's just over. The whole season. It's just done. The whole season. And now no offensive and defensive coordinators. They'll both be gone. Yeah, they're about to lose everybody. And how is no one else at the quarterback position doing this VR thing?

It keeps coming up of like right at the beginning, Jane Daniels, we put him on this the this VR regiment, which yeah I was reps at 1.75 speed like it's it is brilliant like the hardest part about being the quarterback is getting Actual live reps because even when you're in training camp and you're going against your team like they're not Like they're they're instructed don't touch the quarterback. They're you know touch the quarterback. There's things that are not, it's not full game speed. No matter how much you want to compete against your own teammates, it will never be the ferocity of which another team could do.

So finding another way to just get, see defenses, react, try and make the right call, it's amazing. I'm sure there's other quarterbacks and teams using this. I think it comes down to just, people can't explain what he's doing. And it comes from hard work, whether he's doing the VR or showing up early, whatever the case may be,

he's been working his butt off and he is so unflappable, 45 points against the Lions, regardless of the defensive injuries, the fourth down play is so unflappable, 45 points against the Lions, regardless of the defensive injuries, the fourth down play is so impressive. Always seems so calm, under pressure, the moments don't seem to get to him. He does not appear rookie-like in any way, shape, or form.

And I know, going back to the VR thing, he credited, like, when we were talking about him as a college prospect, he was talking about that was what he was giving credit for his transition from the ASU quarterback we saw to the LSU sensation. He said it was the VR stuff. So I didn't know until this weekend that when he was- And Malik neighbors. Well, sure. And Brian Thomas Jr. The weapons certainly help, but he doesn't have them for the commanders.

It is interesting, I'm sure next year a lot of programs will be picking up the VR headsets, putting them on. And the Let's Call of Duty, more VR. Ah boy. The hit that Jared Goff took there on the interception. Oh my goodness. I think if that were Patrick Mahomes, like they would have called the game.

Yeah, yeah. They would say, no, that's an instant forfeit for the Washington commanders. You can't do that to Patrick. And Jared Goff's over here just like, no, no, call it all? OK. Cliff Kingsbury getting it done. He'll have offers.

Whether he takes them, I don't know. The Rams, they lost to the Eagles 28-22. Exciting game. It was. It was, it was an exciting game. And then. Hopefully, Jalen Hurst is okay. The two point conversion heard around the world.

Oh man. Buffalo 27, Baltimore 25. You know, the game was not lost. I mean, it was lost on that play, but it wasn't, right? Like, you know, the game was not lost. I mean, it was lost on that play, but it wasn't, right? Like, you know, you had the- It was lost on the Mark Andrews fumble. Yeah, and the catastrophic fumble by Lamar Jackson, too, that put him, you know, in position to win.

It's just sad because, like, I've already seen the tweets. You know, you knew they were coming. It's so predictable that, like, oh, Lamar can't win in the playoffs. It's like Lamar, that's what's not, I know Lamar had the phone, but Lamar was there. He was, you know, they could win the game if Mark Andrews catches the two point conversion

that was in his hands. He did play great, he missed throws. He didn't have the weapons in the wide receiver room that he needed. You know, you look at what, I think John Gruden came out and talked about the fact that like Mark Andrews was put in a position where he has to be everything for these drives. That final drive was, I mean, Zay Flowers missed the game

and then that final drive Bateman was out, right? Yeah, and you have, like, why should your tight ends being, you have to clear, run clear out routes? Like, you're gonna be exhausted at that position of the game, you need more players. Look, Lamar Lamar could have played better. Lamar missed Derek Henry down the left sideline. That would have been a guaranteed touchdown early in the game. Um, you know, it's always a player too. It's not,

it's not generally like catastrophic failure and three turnovers to zero. Yeah, you lost the same with Detroit. The turnovers were huge this week. If you look at the losing teams, all four losing teams outgained the winning teams in total yardage. The Texans, the Lions, the Rams, and the Ravens all had more production in yardage but lost the game. Yep, yep, yep. All right, let's talk some more news. News and notes from around the league, presented by USAA Insurance. Well, the Bears did hire Ben Johnson

as their new head coach. Okay, best you could do. It was a mad dash to see who could get Ben Johnson. Jacksonville wanted him bad. The Raiders wanted him bad. Cowboys were like, nah, we're good, man. They got the rise on somebody. So we here.

Yeah, Brian Schottenheimer. They can't possibly do that. They can absolutely. If there's anyone that can do it, it's Jerry. Ben Johnson goes to Chicago He is prepared to bring in Jason's favorite head coach of all time Dennis Allen as their defensive coordinator That's fine is the coordinator and the Colts hired Lou and Arumo as their DC longtime bangle DC who had a

You know a great run had a Super Bowl run with a good defense there. Falcons hired former interim head coach with the most manicured gray beard of all time. That is a very, it is a very fancy gray beard. It's a fancy gray beard. You don't usually see the gray beards so manicured and trimmed. That is from the commercials.

The people that, oh yeah, dude, he could get a great beard dye commercial. Yeah, but then he doesn't have his gray beard anymore. Exactly. I bet he likes the gray beard. No, they have the dyes that accentuate the gray. Oh, the touch of gray? Touch of gray.

He could be a touch of gray guy. D'Amico Ryan says it's too early to put a timeline on whether Tank Del can even play in 2025. Oh brutal. You know I want to give a lot of credit to Houston going into Arrowhead they were actually in a position to compete they moved the football and it was a couple plays you know and and what what else is new for them. They didn't have digs they didn't have Tank L. Or the refs. Yeah, it was tough sledding. But yeah, I mean, I think right now you have to,

you go into next year assuming you don't have tanked L. Certainly for fantasy football, he's not gonna be on the radar. And then we had Cooper Kupp, who was basically deleted from the offense over the last quarter of the season. Courtile, I've seen that word used a lot. Courtile. The last courtile of the season. Cortile, I've seen that word used a lot. The last cortile of the season.

Oh, we're fancy. And what was the word you used earlier? Villain something? Villainization or something. But Cooper Cubs said he plans to play next year, but not sure of his future with the Rams. So maybe some discussions have already happened. It sounded like he plans to play next year, but not sure how well.

Like, you know, he's not sure, you know, what type of player he is anymore. It was so weird. Cut candidate. Yeah, they would save money, but they could also just rework things. He could def- I think he could go Adam Thielen somewhere. You know what I mean? Go and be a productive player for a team that needs someone and we're gonna break. Sorry, Coop, we love you.

A big Cooper Cup fan, but we got. Touch of Gray? Touch of Gray for Cooper? He will be 32 next year. Jokes to be made, you know? Yeah. Oh, welcome to the club. Yes.

That was today's Nudes and Nodes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USA.com slash insurance. Let's jump back into the truth. You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers? I want the truth.

You can't handle the truth. Okay. Look, we've had the truth graphic there for a long, long time. Right. I think we've had the truth graphic there for a't handle the truth. Okay. I, look, we've had the truth graphic there for a long, long time. Right. But I saw something for the first time

and look, if you're listening, you didn't see it. But if you're on YouTube, you saw the graphic introducing the segment. Okay. I saw something for the first time that made that graphic even more- Did it have to do with your hair? Yes.

That's the first time I've ever seen it too. So the first clip of me. So for those listening at home, and I'll hit it. I didn't see it. I'm going to hit it again, and you will watch. That's amazing. So for those watching at home, there's two scenes of me wearing a judge's wig.

OK? OK. So before I reveal the problem, I want you to watch again with close eyes, Jason. See if you can notice the problem. ["You Can't Handle the Truth"] Hahahaha! You want answers? I think I'm entitled.

You want answers? You want the truth? You can't handle the truth! Oh yeah, oh yeah, there is no... No effort? No effort needed to see... In one of the scenes, you're wearing the wig. Yes, like a person would wear the thing. One of the scenes you're wearing the wig. Yes, like a person would wear a wig. The other one you're wearing it like a hat.

A wig hat. I cover, I mean, that's not even true. That's not even true, Mike. Our graphics guy put so little effort into that that they just put a wig over my hair, but like half my hair was showing. Half your hair was showing. Like it's a Photoshop thing.

You just move it down like. Move the hair. Brian is dying right now. Push the down arrow, hold shift, push down like three times, and you're good. That was. This is not hard. I can't believe we all saw that for the first time.

It has gone many years. Wow. Well, enjoy that, Foot Clan. Well, we're into the truth part two, our last episode. If you missed it, go back, listen. It was the truth of the top 10 quarterbacks. Today we're in part two. We are looking at the next tier and there will be a lot of debate on today's show about the future of some of these guys because, you know, what was the truth about their potential?

We'll talk about it. 45 different quarterbacks this year finished as a top 12 quarterback. So had at least one top 12 quarterback week, a quarterback one week. Right in line with what we're used to seeing. 46 last year, 45 the year before, 49 the year before this. We bring this stat up every single season

in the draft time when you're talking about quarterback strategy for the streaming option for the late round quarterback people out there and in here. There are options from the waivers that you will never think of. For instance, Malik Willis had a top 12. Drew Locke.

Drew Locke had the epic game. Yeah, man, if anyone played Drew Locke in that game. I was going to say, some were not predictable. Marcus Mariota did it twice while not playing a full game. Yeah, he didn't start either. So no one, for fantasy purposes, started. We should really have this number be 43. OK.

But it's kind of there to highlight the reality that there's contributions well beyond the prototypical starting options. Just so you remember from last episode, what we're doing is we're looking at their fantasy finish and we're contrasting it with their consistency. And we're evaluating consistency on the basis of how many great games did they have 26 or more points?

How many good games 21 points or more and how many bust games so you're over 15 and so Under 50. Sorry. Yes under 15 Kyler came in at 11 in the fantasy finish. He was drafted as the quarterback 8. He is one of the Mount Rushmore of busts to me this year because of the... you took him in a spot where he needed to be your guy and he wasn't quite bad enough to let you pivot off when you should have and not quite good enough to win you games. Now outright busts are

easier to deal with. If you got Travis ETN, you moved on. You weren't spending every single week thinking, oh, I gotta find a way, I think I should start Travis ETN this week. You just went, well, that sucks. You lit the pick on fire, and you found someone else to try to get you fantasy points. Kyler, the whole season, I mean, the thing is- 44% of his games were busts.

That is awful. And he was so much worse in the second half because the first half of the season, his consistency score was number five. So he really was like the drug you shouldn't have. It's like, ooh, you like this. This feels good. You've got something nice here.

Boom, you're addicted. Now you're on the streets. That was Kyler. Yeah, Kyler had a... Bump people on the streets! That was Kyler. Yeah, Kyler had a- Putting people on the streets? Yeah, I mean homeless. Whoa! Wow!

This was a situation where you ended up in a meth house if you kept with Kyler Murray all season long. We're getting to the point now where Kyler, he'll give you a Jay Cutler game, right? He'll give you the big performance from time to time. But we're at the point now where the excuses are, we're running out of excuses for cut all he needs is a top tier wide receiver option. So let's draft Marvin Harrison that you can't turn into one, uh, Trey McBride, best tight end in football, maybe that's not enough. You can't throw for 4,000 yards.

You can't 21 touchdowns. Um, didn't run the football when he needed to. You know, you talk about what Jayden Daniels does well. He picks his spots to run and he always picks the right spot. It seems like only 13% great games. That's a departure from the Kyler Murray we've seen before. 38% good, 44% busts. Um, you know, it, him as a running quarterback over 500 yards rushing, you're always going to have

the ceiling possibility, but that is part of the drug, right, it's like, I just need a little bit. You think you've got a floor, usually with mobile rushing quarterbacks, it's like, well, we know he's gonna get 30, 40, 50 yards a game, so you're starting with a three, four, five point baseline in fantasy points scored. But the issue with Kyler this year was sometimes he just didn't run. And that was the success or failure for

fantasy purposes. In games where he had 20 or more rushing yards, he averaged 21 fantasy points per game. Yay, great. But then in games where he had fewer than 20 rushing yards, it was 12 and a half fantasy points So there were so many times as a cardinal fan that I'm watching these games I'm like, why aren't you running there scramble you have you have a superpower You literally are so much faster than everyone on the field and he just chooses To not use it not exploit it It's like when it's like when Superman is Clark Kent.

And he's like, Clark Kent, he can't be in this sport. I can't, my dad's going into the tornado. I can't do it. Because of the glasses. Yeah, because it's Clark Kent, people will know. I think Jason made kind of the point on Kyler that should be seen, what the truth is, is he never became a better passer this year. His good games were when he ran. It wasn't like

sometimes you got a great passing game. Do you know he had 12 games with two or fewer touchdowns? And most of those were zero or one. He only had, he had a three touchdown game early in the year, and then he had a week 18 when no one cared and he threw four touchdowns. Otherwise you literally didn't get anything in the passing game that you expected from him. 21 touchdowns you know it's a really really disappointing year. Very very disappointing and possibly even more disappointing is that next year, I have to leave the margin that things get better. Because I believe that Marvin Harrison gets better.

Yeah, I would agree with that. I really, really do. And it's like, well, part of that will be his connection with Kyler and Kyler getting more done in the passing game. And this is not me saying, in January, I am so in on Kyler and Kyler getting more done in the passing game. And this is not me saying, in January, like I am so in on Kyler Murray. I hate that it has to even be an option. Because I want to be out.

I agree. I want to be out, but he. He'll be in the double digit round. He'll be around. He'll manage to pull us back in. And I'm talking about myself. If he's a ninth round pick, he's one of those mobile quarterbacks that falls towards the double digit rounds. You highlight and target those guys.

That's why, you know, Jaden Daniels was my guy for Andy because he was like the last drafted quarterback that scrambles. I feel really good about that now. Yeah, that worked out pretty well. Yeah, but that you know, this is the truth series. You're also gonna go into next year seeing, hey, Kyler was a top 10 quarterback this year in fantasy. He finished as the quarterback 10. I mean, that was not the experience. And so I think you got to pump the brakes and be cautious next year when drafting them. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's his story. So we'll take a quick break and we'll jump back into

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All right, Donald Kyler moving on to number 12 on our list. Brock Purdy consistency rank was higher than his fantasy finish. He was eighth in consistency, seventh in the first half, 12th in the second half. I feel like Brock Purdy did the best he could do this year. I am in complete agreement.

No Brandon Naug, no Christian McCaffrey for almost all year. And you know what I'm gonna say? No Debo. Yep, yeah. Not really. 47% good, 40% bust. He will always be fringe.

Ran for 323 yards, that's nice. Five touchdowns on the ground. But all the injuries to the offensive line, even left tackle, right? You talk about protecting Brock Purdy. I think he did the most with what he had in a absolute trash season for the 49ers. Yeah, I'm in complete agreement.

I mean, it was last year with an additional game, he was a 4,000 yard passer and a 31 touchdown. That's what he put up on the season. It was a 7% touchdown percentage for percent of his attempts that turned into a touchdown. And this year, it plummeted all the way down to 20. He is like, he is what we talk about where a pocket passer can just, it can fluctuate so tremendously.

Not just a, I went from 35 down to 30. It's like, no, this is what can happen. If the team around you doesn't hold up, things fall apart for these types of guys. Even though, I mean, at the beginning, Brock Purdy was kinda keeping things alive with running a little bit. So next year, once we get everybody in, seeing what the team looks like,

Brock Purdy will be a break glass. He's not someone with a draft, but perfect quarterback too. That's what I was going to bring up. I think in Superflex leagues, Brock Purdy is a name that I will be much more excited about because he is pretty consistent. He was the consistency rank of number eight. So that's great if you're drafting him

as your second quarterback. The issue with Brock Purdy, and I think you will always have this issue, is the lack of great games. He only had two games that qualified as great this season. He's not gonna win you a championship. If you're in a single quarterback league he's not taking you to you know beyond the playoffs to win championships. It's just not his style because this is a run first team. If they're doing great they're going to have rushing touchdowns

You do wonder you know the offseason is gonna be a commitment of money to Brock Purdy. Yeah, it's also the last Small window for Christian McCaffrey in the NFL so you do wonder if if some of the identity of this offense could change over time They gave Brandon I eat that money. He'll be back. So that would be something to watch. Justin Herbert came in at 13. Justin Herbert never had a great game. No games of over 26 points. The story for him, 504 pass attempts. This was a guy that had almost 702 years ago. He finished 13 in consistency as well. This was not a fantasy relevant guy, but this was a player that you saw the transition

over the second half of the year where their neutral pass rate, yards per game, EPA per pass, explosive pass plays, they all went up tremendously from week six on. So you saw the writing on the wall. I said the entire year, the Chargers were a team that was a couple players away to me.

A difference maker a little bit more in the running game, I think, than J.K. Dobbin, somebody that can catch the ball would have meant a lot. And then another prolific wide receiver option or tight end option. I don't care which one, whatever they take, you know, Lad McConkie, Quentin Johnson, if you want them to be your guys,

then you need a more prolific tight end and a more prolific pass catching running back. You're right on the edge, I think, but you do know that Harbaugh, if he gets his way, would love to run the football and play defense. Yeah. I mean, that's historically what it's been. It'll be their decision in the draft or free agency, I guess, is gonna be fascinating because they do, they need, I mean, McConkey could be like a 1A.

I think McConkey could be great, but you do need somebody else, but they will put a priority of some kind to the running back position, so it's like which weapon do they invest in heavier and I think that won't say a lot to what their plans are for the next year Jason let me ask you a quick question about Herbert before we move on well Justin Herbert be a fantasy relevant quarterback over the next five years yeah I really do think

he will be a hardball wants to play defense and run the ball but he was a quarterback and he sees what he has in Justin Herbert as I mean you just I really do think he will be. Harbaugh wants to play defense and run the ball, but he was a quarterback, and he sees what he has in Justin Herbert as, I mean, you just watch how he talks about Justin Herbert. Find yourself someone who loves you the way that he loves Justin Herbert. The first month of the season, when they started out running, playing defense,

they were only letting Herbert throw the ball 22 times a game on average. From that point forward, they had their bye week and you saw 31 pass attempts a game the rest of the season to a lot of success. I think they'll end up with a better weapon or two. I expect them to really try to get a tight end. Maybe Tyler Warren, the rookie, I think he'll be associated with this team. Will Disley is fun We love playing the drop but his utilization showed how good a

Legitimately good tight end would be for this team that would help in the run game You know kind of a dual threat tight end would be great. So I I think the talent of Herbert will not You know, it won't be put to the side over the next five years for fantasy purposes. Caleb Williams at 14, consistency of 16. This was not the dream season you would have hoped for. Head coaching change. Weird. You know, 68 sacks taken, most in the NFL. 19% great, 31% good, 56% bust, not relevant for fantasy.

There was a small moment, I remember, during the season after weeks five and six, going into the bye, coming out against Washington, who their defense hadn't really stepped up yet. That week eight game was the defining moment to me of Caleb Williams' season. They were four and two and they never recovered from the Hail Mary. So he took a million sacks.

I mean, he put the Sam Darnold playoff performance into routine. He was pressured like crazy. He was 69% catchable target rate, so 44 out of 47 quarterbacks. So that's your red alert. That was your like, hey, you're not, you gotta do a lot more at the NFL level

than extending a play and making a wild across your body throw and highlight throw. It was- The normal plays, the normal NFL plays were not there for Caleb Williams. No, no sustained drives. He showed flashes of why he was drafted number one. I saw enough to believe that he will get better.

I think bringing in Ben Johnson as the head coach is fantastic news for hopefully being able to develop Caleb Williams and give him a system where hey let's let's learn how to take the easy stuff the on-time stuff like let's work on you being on time hit that leg you know hit that third that fifth step drop hit your leg on by you know use the slot receiver more I think that this will be really good for Caleb Williams progress going forward, but rookie year was Overall a disaster. I mean the few games he had that were good were against, you know, Carolina

Jacksonville Indy the the end of the year couple games against Detroit when they lost all their defensive players for the most part when he played Top half defenses. he was abysmal. What are your odds with Ben Johnson and all the history in Chicago of quarterback struggles only 3,500 yards didn't break that 4,000 mark this year. What do you put the odds of it working with with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams because you know one hand, you could have that perfect coach, offensive mind, play calling, it could all work out. On the other hand, you could get a Kyler Murray situation that didn't work, Cliff Kingsbury and Kyler in Arizona.

Give me your percentage chance of success. I'm on the optimistic side, but it's not, I'm like 60, no, I think I'm more like 60%, I think it's gonna work out. I'll be interested in two years. I'm 50-50, that's about where I'm not, you know, I'm like 60. No, I think I'm more like 60%, I think it's gonna work out. I'll be interested in two years. I'm 50-50. That's about where I'm at. I was really discouraged and disappointed

with what I didn't see, which was a improvement over time. Yeah, a man who has any composure in the pocket. I mean, he's running around with his hair on fire. Yeah, yeah. He's running around with his hair on fire. Yeah, yeah. He did have... I think he was playing the VR at half speed. You know what I mean? That's what it seemed like. It's so much faster!

It's like, dude, speed it up in that VR! You put it in the wrong setting. He put it in the wrong setting because he's like... I'm here for the story. He couldn't compete. I'm here for the gameplay. He couldn't compete. Yes!

Oh, it's easy mode. That's my way of playing the video game. Caleb, you need to make it challenging. And then Kyler's got the headset on, but it is Call of Duty in there. Oh, it's virtual reality Call of Duty. I saw you. Totally working on things, coach. Don't worry about it.

Did you guys call? Kiltacular. I assume. I just call it Duty, have a Kiltacular, I have no idea. Well, just go with it. Well, I assume that both of you saw, well, before Ben Johnson was hired, the troll by those two teenagers?

Yes. Did you get to see the situation? No, I did not. So two teenagers got his number, and they texted him, hey, it's me, Ben Johnson, I'm your new head. You got Caleb Williams' number? Yeah.

Oh, texted Caleb Williams and said, hey, it's me, Ben Johnson, I'm your new head coach, really excited to work with you. And then they like, so he put that number in and then they FaceTimed him and it's all on video. That's awesome. And then the kids are like, Hey man, it's me, Ben Johnson. And then they're like, then they like shrink

and they go, I'm really sorry for this man. See you later. Oh man. It was, it was. So how you doing, Prussians? You just gotta say your name. It's me, it's me, Ben Johnson, everybody. for this man see you later it was it was uh so you do impressions you just got to say your name it's me it's me Ben Johnson everybody it's me David Gettleman well that's why it's me number 15 number 15 Geno Smith 22 inconsistency tells you everything you need to know about him as a fantasy quarterback which was that's

not good. We almost took him out of here. We took a couple of quarterbacks out to talk about, we're not gonna talk about Ann Rogers today. Like you're just not even worth it? Yeah, it's just not worth it. How was he only 16 over the first half? Because, well, I mean, it was a rough year for Geno Smith.

Oh, I get that, but. He had 21 passing touchdowns and four of them came. Six of the first nine weeks, he was a top 10, top 12 guy, sorry. I don't know, that's just, that's wild to me. Like I said, I mean, 17 touchdowns going into week 18. Some of those weeks, if you remember how the season got started, because we don't do this based on quarterback rank, we do it based on score. So like the first two weeks were great for him, you know, he's the quarterback seven,

quarterback five, and that was maybe okay for fantasy but as far as his performance he didn't get 18 points in either of those weeks it wasn't a really good fantasy performance it just kind of the league stunk to start the weeks he set a career high in completion percentage he's 34 years old I am of the more pessimistic side of what do you know Smith brings to the table? I think he's very capped I think I will not be I will not be enthusiastic about their passing situation with DK Metcalf in particular obviously you saw JSN get it done kind of ties in with that completion percentage, but

You know, it's starting to look more like 2022 was a very outlier type of year for Geno Smith. He had 30 touchdowns in 2022, the last two years, 20 and 21. And so that's just not a fantasy relevant guy. That's a two quarterback guy. Yeah. I'm a little more optimistic than you are on him, Andy, but I think that the Seahawks are going to be very, very run heavy team. Well, they did make the change in offensive coordinator. The Grubb experience was one and done. Yeah, they're also clearly going to move on from Tyler Lockett. He's going to cost them too much money. So maybe at this point in the career, it's addition by subtraction, but it is subtraction of a really valuable asset

that Geno's used for the last several years. I actually think he'll just renegotiate with them. Really? I do. Aaron Rodgers, we're skipping him at 16? Yeah, I mean, we don't know if he's gonna play football next year and he stunk this year. What was the truth? The truth is he stunk this year.

Okay, yeah. Based off of what evidence? Yeah, where's the data, Jason? Yeah, the data was between the ears. Both your eyes and your brain, if you watched it, it was not a good experience. And I doubt he plays football next year. It's certainly not going to be for the Jets. I doubt that as well.

And I don't look out there and see a bunch of franchises that are like, I want to do what the Jets did this last year So yeah, the the risk benefit analysis on Aaron Rodgers bringing him into your team Let's talk about the next man up though in Green Bay Jordan love This was one of the bigger storylines you talk about Kyler and him letting you down in Relation to your draft capital Jordan Love comes in at 17 in fantasy finish, 15th in consistency, was drafted as the quarterback 10 in the seventh round,

so you did think that, you know, there was a part of this season before I traded for Lamar Jackson in our league of record where my tandem of quarterbacks was Kyler and Jordan Love and I really thought, boy, these are gonna be two guys in the second half of the season, you can bounce back, yeah, you can bounce back and forth between them for mediocre production.

Week through week seven, that part of the season for Jordan Love was, we're ready. We are absolutely ready. Week one had some really weird stuff. Call it the Jayden Reed period of time? Yeah, in that game in Brazil, it was weird. He still managed to be the quarterback 11. Gets hurt right at the end of the game.

Comes back immediately as the quarterback two, a down game, quarterback four, quarterback 11. Here we go, we're ready. Jordan Love. The breakouts happen. Jordan Love is gonna continue off of what he started the past year, and then. So here's the truth. The truth for Jordan Love, and we talked about it throughout the season, it was a touchdown problem, in part caused by Josh Jacobs' greatness.

Josh Jacobs, to start the season, we spoke about the touchdown regression, how many carries he had without scoring a touchdown on the season and that pendulum, I mean that thing got momentum the other direction and flew off the whatever the middle part of a pendulum is. Yeah, know that. The middle part of a pendulum? Because the- I think that's also the pendulum. The last ten, the hanger?

I don't know. What? What's it hanging on? You know what I mean? Like the little- Oh, you're talking about on? Little you're talking about where it's attached. Yeah, the you're saying there's so much weight on one side That it just popped the other side off or what I'm saying this thing It was it was it was propelled and it flew off because Josh Jacobs score. No, you're pendulum score

Yeah, oh, yeah, two or three. They're made of metal seems like every single every single week the last ten games Jordan love who you know last season and to start this season his touchdown percentage was Really really good. He was great in the red zone He always got it done there and then the last ten games of the season if you put that on a 17 full season game pace 17 total touchdowns that you can't have that for fantasy. This was, by the way, let me give you the data real quick. 7% great, 21% good, 43% bust.

So that's a problem. This was a little bit like a Philadelphia light situation though. We talked about what affected Jalen Hurts in our last truth series. This became Saquon's team. That's how winning happened. That was the Packers with Josh Jacobs. Like you said, that was how winning was happening. And so you didn't need to use them as much. So going forward next year, do you expect them to continue the recipe of writing Josh Jacobs and making that the foundation of this offense? I think there'll be more balance.

I think you're going to get, like if I had to predict the next five years of Jordan Love's career, I think you're gonna get about three meaningful fantasy seasons in that group. But I don't think it's gonna be one of those things where that's the only way they win football games. He's the quintessential pocket passer that is good enough to have a great season and

not great enough to be reliable. The way that Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow to me, if he doesn't get injured, he will be good as a pocket passer every single season for fantasy football purposes. Jordan Love, CJ Stroud, these guys have to have the phenomenal passing touchdown season, and those are not, you know, that's just not a sticky stat. You know what you need is one, you need one wide receiver that brings it every week.

You need one dude that can bring big numbers every week for Green Bay, and they don't have that. And it's like, looking ahead next year, what do they do? Like, you have Romeo Dobbs and Jaden Reed, I think they're both in their looking ahead next year, what do they do? Like you have Romeo Dobbs and Jaden Reed. I think they're both in their final year next year, Kyle, correctly if I'm wrong. And then you have Christian Watson tears his ACL in week 18.

So I mean, he will not be ready to start the season. So it's a- Nor has he ever been the guy that you're gonna be able to count on every week anyway. Yeah, he hasn't been able to consistently get it. But at least when he's on the field, Jordan Love is better. It helps the other wide receivers. So it'll be watching them try to figure out, do they get a true number one or do they just

go with these guys who are all good, but no one on that team is elite. 18 was Matthew Stafford. I guess we're not going to talk much about Matthew Stafford. There's not a bunch to discuss. He was very mid-level and I really wanted to make sure that in today's episode we got to Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young. Oh, I can't wait. Those two players have a little bit more conversation needed. As does this guy. 19 is CJ Stroud.

This was more catastrophic by far. This was worse than the Kyler one. Oh yeah, because he was in the fourth round. Fourth round, CJ Stroud. Part of the story was the rookie season. Let's build on it So keep that in mind all of you rookies bone X and Jane Daniels and Caleb. It doesn't always get better The other part of the story was okay. We paid

We paid our guy right we paid Nico Collins. We brought in Stefan Diggs and we've got tanked out going into the sophomore season and They also won football games, so I'll give them credit there, but zero great games. 6% good, which means that this is a guy, he busted 63% of the time. So 63% of the time, you're under 15 points, and all the rest, basically, you're under 21. This was, I would say, You can't win with that.

A pretty good hit for us in draft season He was on our bus list in the in the ultimate draft kit We brought up a lot of the similarities between Baker Mayfield's Amazing rookie season when they then bring in Odell Beckham jr. And it's hard to remember it but sophomore year He was the most overdrafted like like it's a guarantee That you're going to see a complete level up, which needs to happen to be drafted that high. And you just don't want to draft guys at the presumed level up that we haven't seen yet. None of us thought it would be this bad.

No, not like this. By any means. I mean, CJ Stroud was one of the most fun players to watch in his rookie season. And going forward now, I think there are a lot of questions, especially for fantasy purposes, is very Jordan Love. Yeah, I'm not worried that Stroud will be, I think three out of the next five years, CJ Stroud will be very relevant for fantasy. He had major injuries to the wide receiver position.

I thought he played really great down the stretch. I thought the playoff game he played great with what he has, the slowest man on earth, Thornton Schultz running up the middle of the field. Yeah, you don't want, like even these really, really bad fantasy games, you don't watch from an NFL perspective and think, man, CJ Stroud, maybe he really doesn't have it.

Oh, he's not that good. It wasn't like that. It was just- Joe Mixon. Yes, it was Joe Mixon, the same way with Josh Jacobs for Jordan Love. It was CJ Stroud is playing good ball. He's doing what he needs to win NFL games, but for fantasy football purposes he's not running the ball. And if the touchdowns go in the running game, which

now with Joe Mixon instead of Damian Pierce, a lot more likely that that's just not okay for fantasy. If you don't throw at least two passing touchdowns in a game while you're not a mobile Russian quarterback you're taking an L at that position he was on the bus list from this past summer he is a 5.9 consistency percentage and how 5.9 5.9 Mike was the one that really you know kind of put the word out that look, we had a few prolific games that everyone saw last year. And they made you believe that this was gonna be a consistent thing, but we didn't see it consistently yet.

I think the Raiders need to hire Bobby Sloak. I would love to see that as their head coach. Are you still in on Bobby? No, no, I am not. I just figured the Raiders are where the coaches go to die. I would love to see that as a head coach. Are you still in on Bobby? No. Oh, OK. No, I am not. I just figure the Raiders are where the coaches go to die. Yeah, just take them off this team

so they've got to get Stroud someone. I got you. His passing up a head coaching job didn't work like Ben Johnson's. No. No, it did not. I think, Jason, the point is the strongest one. It, the bet against CJ Stroud was not this.

It was just, you're paying such a high equity pick for something that has to take, for a player, to have to take a massive, massive step forward. It's just, it's not worth the risk when there are other guys later in the draft at this position which is a replaceable position for for fantasy. So just it I'm sure there'll be someone who gets gassed up into the fifth round you'll go maybe not. There always is. Yeah I mean because let's be honest when it hits it's really fun and exciting and cool and you've got

emotionally yes yes. All right we'll take a hits. It's really fun and exciting and yeah cool and yes emotionally. Yes. Yes All right, we'll take a break. Where's Jaden Daniels go next year like second third round. He will go he will go very early probably quarterback three yeah, maybe quarterback two over hurts Yeah, Josh Allen Lamar and then I'll probably be yeah Yeah, you know that's where he probably belongs Alright, we'll take a break. We'll talk about a few more relevant names when we talk truth of the quarterback position All right, I want to

Breeze through we got three more names that I wanna talk about. Tua, we know what the season was, the concussion, the threat to his career. He was not a great fantasy quarterback once he returned. The way the offense functioned, downfield passing versus short area, Johnny Smith. What is the future? What is the future of the Miami Dolphins where,

I guess, is this the offense going forward? Where Tyreek Hill is still faster than everybody, but you can't come through with good fantasy performances because this is how the offense is running. It's running short stuff. It's running on dump offs to A-chan and and John-u Smith, is, that's what we get moving forward, cause that is, that's a big bummer, if that's what's gonna be the case.

I think that is gonna be what the case is. It's like when the Chiefs just deleted everybody for us. Yeah, I don't know how much I want to give credence to the narrative of the concussion worries, get the ball out quick, don't know how much I want to give credence to the narrative of the concussion worries. Get the ball out quick. Don't let plays develop down the field that can put 2-2 at more risk. It still worked. You know, they won games down the stretch where they were really close. You know, they started so poorly, especially with 2-2's injury, lost a lot of games. They dug themselves a hole that wasn't really

their fault. And they did get close to the playoffs. So you can't really argue it didn't work and even from a fantasy perspective, you know, the second half he was the consistency rank of the quarterback 14, not winning you championships by any means, but so much better than what we saw earlier in the season. I would imagine it's more of the same, especially since they decided to keep McDonald's at head coach, I would... He's McDonald's now? Yeah, he's always been McDonald's. You don't know, do you?

No. Yeah, no. Yeah, he's been McDonald's. No, no, he's not been McDonald's. That's Seattle. No. He's McDaniel's. Nope, check tape. McDonald's. Kyle. Kyle.

You're the footballer's historian. But that's not his name. No, I know, I don't know. Kyle. Kyle, you're the footballer's historian. But that's not his name. No, I know, I know, but where it started, I'm pretty confident that McDonald's was Mike McDaniel. I'm pretty sure. We'll find out. All right, Kyle. You're dumb.

Well, I know that. Drake Mays, 21, Cousins, 22. Let's go to Anthony Richardson, the fifth round pick who finished at 23. He had a consistency rank of 14, 27th in the first half, technically fifth in the second half, but did not play a lot of games. 18% great, 36% good, 64% bust.

Okay. I don't know if you do you want to everything will be completely up to 80p with Anthony Richardson if he if Anthony Richardson is left for the scraps of the waiver wire and he's a double digit guy? Sure. You want to play a game? Oh, let's do it. Oh. Oh. I want to play a game. Anthony Richardson. Versus who? We're going, well, it's not a versus. The game can be different.

You know what I mean? It's just a game. Oh, OK. OK. Out of 43 qualifying quarterbacks, what rank was he in? A-dot, averaged up the target. Oh.

I mean, he would have given it out. He would have given it out and it'd fly. 43 relevant quarterbacks, 43 qualifying quarterbacks with 150 pass attempts, so 43 guys. Check downs and bombs, I'm gonna say he's 10th. Mike? Yeah, I was gonna guess top 10 area, so. Oh, you guys are way gonna say he's 10th. Mike? Yeah, I was gonna guess top 10 area. Oh, you guys are way off.

He's number one. Oh, okay, all right. Number one in average depth of target. Deep throw rate. Well, that's gotta be high. Number one. Okay. Out of 43.

Passer rating. On deep throws or just in general? No, just passer rating. Who, 43? I'm gonna go, I'll go 42. 43. All right. Pacerating on deep throws or just in general just passer rating who 43 I'll go 42 43 43 completion percentage Something I brought up a lot during our live show. We'll go 43 we got 43 out of 43. What about adjusted completion percentage though? Let's adjust that for right for drop for drop

Oh, okay. Well, that's 40 3 2 drops. Oh, okay, well then that's 43. 43. Oh, come on. I'm crushing this. Off. You just gotta go number 143, Mike. Off target rate. 43.

43. Oh, see? See, this is an easy game. This is not a game. Don't worry, there's one more. Yeah, this is just piling on. Checkdown rate. Like, I don't think he checked down a lot. He had screens, but that is correct.

43rd. So that was a Ricky Bobby style. If he ain't first, you're last. Well, that's look at his second half, right? We talk about the consistency score in the second half. He was number five. That's because in those games that he did play and he, he exited some of those, he had 28 points, 20 points, 21 points in three of the five the others though 13.9 and 13 it's it's really you can get big game-winning performances with him here's here's the future of Anthony Richardson that's going to happen he's either going to be a starting quarterback, and if he is, he will be relevant for fantasy football

from time to time, if not all the time. Yeah, I think if he- Or, he will not be a starting quarterback. I agree. And the clock- He has one more year. He's got one more year. He's got one more month.

Like, I mean, genuinely- That might be true. To start next season, if a month in he's played four bad games, and, you know, they're gonna put the hook out there and pull him off stage. Well, because you're gonna have a, what, Shane Steichen is gonna be hot seat next year. Hot seat, yeah.

Like, everything around the Colts is terrifying. It's all gonna come down to did you make the right pick with Anthony Richardson, but from a fantasy perspective, this was obviously one of the biggest busts in fantasy football. We did not see on film things that made me believe it will get fixed. But what we did see on film was incredible ability when it worked. His deep passes that connected were amazing. His physicality, his running ability, and you know goal line touchdowns were what you want. They were Josh Allen, Jalen Hertz-esque. And so this is a player because of how bad he was so often. I don't think he gets gassed up next year

Well, look one of the storylines in the offseason that I was concerned about was injury He missed two games this year with a hip and oblique injury. He missed two more weeks with a back injury He missed a play with tired. Oh gosh that dude that that was so bad Why did you come off the field? Were you hurt? Oh no, I was just tired. You're the quarterback, you know? He made plays, but you do, you expect players to be able to make some plays. I would say he made about a play 47% of the time.

That's the problem. You don't, you cannot be a fantasy relevant quarterback. And I broke all the data down when we did the bust episode. You can't do it at 47% passing. It has never been done. It's not possible. You almost have to be at 60% or above. That is a huge gap.

He levels up or he flames out. You're right, Andy. He's not going to be the quarterback for 17 games next year unless he is good. So I will be drafting him next year. I'm saying the double digit rounds as my second quarterback just to see what happens in week one or two. Same as Kyler, same as Love. I mean, see what happens.

The hope for him has always been, and the reason he was drafted so high is really Josh Allen and the transition that he was able to make as a quarterback that had a 50%-ish completion percentage for a year and a half, and then they got Stephon Diggs, he leveled up, he became a good, more consistent thrower. If you watched the first year or two of Josh Allen, you got head-scratching throws that were just like, man.

Josh Allen fixed, he was fixed with mechanics. If you go back and you really look at the way he was fixed with mechanics. Yes. If you go back and you really look at the way he threw the football, you listen to him talk about it, it was one specific trainer changing one specific movement in the way that he threw the football. Well let's get you. Phone number.

Okay. This sounds very easy. Now that we know, let's just ask who that guy. That guy and like five VR headsets. Five to 10. You better burn. VR all the time. Burn them out.

Last name I wanna talk about cause I know Jason wants to talk about it. So Bryce Young who came in as the 25th ranked quarterback, 18th in consistency, 29th in the first half lost his job. Second half 14th, showed some flashes. Um, it was, it was interesting to see at the end of the year. I don't know if Dave Canales figured something out. I don't know if it was a softer schedule.

I don't know if the game slowed down for real for Bryce Young. I think it did. But it gives you some hope. When we're talking fantasy, it's not always about, will you start Bryce Young next year? It's about, can you start his wide receivers? Can you start a running back because they're going to be in the red zone? Or is this offense as inept as it was for a year and a half?

It's nice to see. Yeah, this will not be a projection of, oh, top 10 Bryce Young next year. It's, no, he can give us other players. Like, watching Bryce Young over the second half was so exciting. The man, he got just his confidence back. He was happy.

In a big way, yeah, he was happy. He's doing turnaround touchdown celebrations. Like, he really, really, I think he found it. I don't know, I don't think Bryce Young He's doing turn around touchdown celebrations. He really, really, I think he found it. I don't know, I don't think Price Young will ever be of. Did he ever do the Jameson Williams celebration? Oh! Ooh!

I don't think he was that happy. That was out of control. That was something. Out of control. All right, only two pumps. Yeah, three is the penalty. Yeah, the. All right, only two pumps. Yeah, three is the penalty. The nice thing is the second half of the year,

and for fantasy purposes, what I hope we get from Bryce Young, I think a lot of times he's really seen or assumed because he was a timing passer and he's a smaller guy that's not this incredible athlete that he's pure pocket passer But you know after that bye week when he got back in he was on pace for 432 rushing yards That is a real that's that's a dual threat You know that's kind of the numbers were talking about with with Bo Nicks where you you have games where he's rushing for 30 to 50 Yards, it's not every game, but at least it can provide you a way for they're going to

add another wide receiver here, right? They tried to get Deontay Johnson to fix the problem. Yeah, they didn't have I mean, the gets only one under contract past 2025. So definitely to me, he played the comp to me in the second half of the year, he played more like Baker Mayfield. Yeah, he was eyes downfield, a lot of escape ability, making stuff happen. I think he'll be a very good quarterback too to draft in fantasy. When we're looking at these guys who are gonna be drafted, either not drafted in single quarterbacks

or if you're in a super flex league and they're drafted 13 through 32, he'll probably be a better value than the guys around him. The truth about Bryce Young is that he will be an NFL quarterback, I think, for a little while, which didn't seem like was going to be the case when Andy Dalton took over for him. It is really nice to be drafted with the number one pick,

because I think if he was a second round, if he was a Will Levis, he never would've gotten the opportunity again. Certainly, yeah, the leash is longer. So we'll get into the truth of the running back position have gotten the opportunity again. Certainly yeah the leash is longer so we'll get into the truth of the running back position on Thursday. Saquon is breaking it. Yeah you looked at me like you had stared at these documents. He's not number one I mean I'm going to auto make him number one

because according to our metrics. What is happening with you and the data man? Well we don't have a historical comp for like games over 30 points like he's not getting enough credit for the incredible games which he had five of. How about you we'll give that context. We'll get that next episode. Alright couple reminders here at the end you can go to shotballers.com. Check out the foot clan title swag. If you won a championship this last week, one of the ways that you can help this show, if you have a few free moments, click that follow button this off season. We're here. We'll be producing content for you and throughout the playoffs and into the off season and free agency in the draft and training camp and everything.

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