Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - The TRUTH: RBs Part 1 + Saquon Smash! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/23

Episode Date: January 23, 2025

The TRUTH series continues on today’s fantasy football podcast! Did Saquon break the TRUTH metrics? The Footballers take a deep dive look at the top fantasy running backs and consistency kings from last season! Who will be undervalued in 2025 fantasy football drafts? Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for January 23rd, 2025. (00:00) - Intro (04:51) - NFL News (14:34) - The TRUTH: Running Backs (17:16) - Saquon Barkley (24:35) - Derrick Henry (29:07) - Jahmyr Gibbs (34:34) - Bijan Robinson (39:19) - Josh Jacobs (45:40) - Kyren Williams (50:37) - De’Von Achane (54:01) - James Cook (56:20) - Fantasy Faceoff Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Check out today's sponsors: News & Notes presented by USAA. Visit https://www.USAA.com/Insurance  Fantasy Faceoff presented by DraftKings Sportsbook Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit airtransat.com for details, conditions apply. Air Transat, travel moves us. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in! The Fantasy Footballers back with you Thursday, January 23rd, Jason Moore, Mike Wright, Andy Holloway. Welcome in one and all. Another fine episode for you on this Thursday. It's like we just recorded yesterday. Feels that way.

Feels that way. Feels that way. Happy to have you with us. We got news to talk about. Mostly coaching staff related. Mostly. Mostly. Let me look. All. Currently it's-

Exclusively. It is 100% of the news content. We're not there yet though. So there's still time for a player breaking news to find its way in. And we have the truth of the running back position starting today the top ten running backs. So that'll be fun. Jason is always you know he can always play spoiler if he wants. He did say running backs were awesome they crushed spoiler. you you had alluded to something special for Saquon Like you were gonna make a whole new

Staff or something. Yep. Did that happen that did happen? Okay, that did have I'll get there when we get there But you don't want to tease it out. I did. This is the tease is that Saquon has something new for him that we have never done before to ensure that he is in the Saquon has something new for him that we have never done before to ensure that he is in the truthful spot, because this episode's about the truth. And if an algorithm is not reflecting the truth, then that's not the algorithm we're gonna use.

You made a new one. You added like a... I took him out, I just took him out of it. I'm gonna be honest with you. I played around with it for a long time to try to get it to work. The algorithm was we stopped using the algorithm. No, we used the algorithm for everyone except Saquon. I took him out because it couldn't

place him at one because it can't give enough bonus points for what he did for 30 plus point games. I guess we're not just teasing it out, but we'll talk about him. I'm guessing somewhere around first when we get into the truth of running backs. That sounds fair. You can go to jointhefoot.com if you want to become a supporter of the show. Get the bonus weekly episode called The Footcast, where we answer your questions each and every week during the off season. It's nice to get an extra episode so you can do that over there. Access to all the premium tools and resources as well. That's JoinTheFoot.com. And it's a good time to remind you if you are, you know, if the off season is percolating,

and if you're looking for a new league, if you're looking for more like-minded people, Papa Josh would love it if I told you to head to BallersDiscord.com. Join our free Discord channel. I don't know if Papa Josh, you know the number of active members off the top of your head. I'm really putting you on the spot. We're at 59.2 thousand. Okay, okay.

So that's a lot. That's quite a few. I thought you were gonna- You can find some leagues over there. Thought you were gonna tease out that we are mere days away from a really big Sunday. Super Bowl Sunday? Some call it that. Ah. Some call it that. When you said days away I was like what is in a couple days? Because that's we're

still weeks away. Oh I forgot there's the week off. Yeah. Whatever. So that would be a weeks away type of thing. It's mere weeks away. Meere weeks and days away. That's great news for me because we are building out this year's dynasty pass, which will be live on a really big Sunday where there's another big game. Months away. Look, when you're in the weeds, man, you're like, uh-oh.

So you're feeling good right now because you just realized you got another weed. You just got more time. You got more time to get it done. Yeah. I'm putting everything on pause. Oh, you're just going to keep the weed on? I get to take a week off now.

The hair takes a nap, and he ends up winning, right? Is that what happened? That's the one I've seen. Hmm. OK, we'll see. So it should be ready. It should be ready by Super Bowl Sunday. The ultimate draft kick always begins.

We'll talk about it more, I guess, in the next few weeks. In the next few years. Let's talk news. News and notes from around the league, presented by USAA Insurance. from around the league presented by USAA insurance the Jets are hiring former Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is their next head coach he was a first round pick when you got a Jets when you got a type you got a type you know the the unproven up-and-coming first time defensive head coach.

How sad are Rex Ryan's teeth right now? Oh man, there. His teeth? Oh well, because that's all you can think of when you think of Rex Ryan. If you look at Rex Ryan all you- So you got a big old smile? What?

Mike, Mike. Mike. Is this a joke? Is Mike playing us right now? No, I don't know. I don't know if you guys know this, there's a big Rex Ryan factoid out there. Oh, I know related to his team. Oh, I know about the feet You I mean I but everyone let me see that on glance. Here's the thing

That's all I know about anyone listening right now who has seen Rex Ryan. That's a regular. That's just a good big smile Let me find I'm gonna dive deeper. I don't understand what's happening. I feel like we're being gaslit right now because Rex Ryan's. So if you search for Rex Ryan teeth, Mike, the first thing you will see is- Are the illuminated teeth. He's got LEDs inside them. The very first thing on Reddit,

why are Rex Ryan's teeth so white? That's it. He's also comes up on the, what's the worst celebrity veneers we've ever seen thread very recently. You pretty much need sunglasses if you're face to face with Rex Ryan. Or only one on our side is Rex Ryan. I think I maybe found an old photo. Oh you found a photo of just normal teeth. These are laser beams. Yes okay thank you. So the picture I put in there that, that's not the same teeth.

No, he did, that's what the veneers are. They're a new set of teeth. He's got the Ross from Friends teeth. Those are some white teeth. Yes, okay Mike, I'm seeing the picture. I just can't believe you haven't seen Rex Ryan in the last few years. I don't tune into Rex Ryan anything. He's always on ESPN. I don't tune into Rex Ryan anything. He's always on ESPN It's like how I don't do it into anything Rex Ryan. Yes, mr Ryan, what shade would you like to go on these teeth? Get those out of here. Bring me a sheet of paper

I'll show you how white I want it. I think translucent option I think the point was those teeth don't have a head coaching job, Right. It's Aaron Glens. Yeah, congrats, Aaron Glens. Liam. So fantasy football wise, this is, as of right now, a total. Yeah, I mean, defensive head coaches. These guys, they got to find the OC. Some of them can. And some of them never do.

He has done a great job with Detroit. Sure, yeah, I think the hire is fine. Even with injuries, they've played very hard for him. I think that the hire is, I mean, coordinators for this type of rise of a team, those guys deserve a chance. Yeah. Like you're a part of it. But being the fantasy show is like, OK, that's great.

Who's your OC? Even taking fantasy out of it, I can't imagine I would. If I was a general manager, I would be very hesitant. I mean, I don't know Aaron Glenn. I haven't interviewed him and been blown away and been won over. I think he did an amazing job. But I do think building a franchise,

it puts you at a disadvantage if you have a defensive head coach, because if your offense clicks and does well for a defensive mind head coach, you're gonna lose your OC. He's gonna become a head coach, and then you gotta keep recycling. Well, and this is, you know, Dan Campbell and his, you know, Ben Johnson leaving,

and then you have this news, which is very good for a player we were worried about, Baker Mayfield is not losing his offensive coordinator. They decided, the Buccaneers did, to offer Liam Cohen a bag of money to turn down the potential Jacksonville job. I think Liam Cohen went to Jacksonville and was like, nah. They fired their GM today. Jacksonville.

Yes, Trent Valkey is fired. But Liam Cohen is staying, so Baker Mayfield will not have a new OC again. Great news. And that's exciting. And the Patriots are expected to hire, once again, for the third time, at least the third time, Josh McDaniels as their offensive coordinator

to join Mike Rabel. What are they doing? Yeah, I mean, you said for fantasy football purposes you know with with the Jets we're not sure we're not sure until Aaron Glenn finds his offensive guy. Well Vrabel has found his offensive guy. We have plenty of data here. How do you feel about the third try here? I feel like they are assembling the hits, the greatest hits of Patriots. Romeo Cornell on the way back soon?

Just wait, just wait. Who is the other, the former Notre Dame coach? O'Brien? No, no, no. Oh, oh, oh, that was not. Oh my gosh. Oh, he's got a sports XM show now. Charlie Wise, thank you. Yeah, there's got a people are gonna kill us now

Thank you, thank you all right Kevin, oh, did you want to talk about it Rex Reigns teeth Kyle Yeah, were you aware of his teeth Kyle? I don't care about his teeth, but where you are aware of where I'm proud of you For not caring you're a better man than us. Were you aware? Not really. Oh, yeah,, that's another man who has not watched Drexel. I don't know why you can watch and not be aware. They're like flashlights in his mouth. Yeah, yeah, I mean, thank you, Jason. The Vikings have agreed to a more... Guys, I'm just learning about this, so this is... I'm trying to get all this information in real time. How do, sign me up. How do I get, how do I get teeth this way?

You want those teeth? Yeah, you can read menus at dark restaurants now. It's amazing. I mean, you don't even need to do the old person thing with your phone at all. You just hold it closer to your face. Hey, Rex, can you smile for me? Have trouble reading this.

Rex, read for the table. I can't get these desserts, I can't make it out the powers out. Let's go to Rex's room I have to imagine in the dark. He clothes like legit. They're pretty white. That's wild I didn't know this was gonna be the podcast today Kevin O'Connell multi-year extension with the Vikings the best part here is my god Part is how completely outdated this is. This is not irrelevant personnel. This has nothing to do with anything going on.

This is a years old thing that happened. This is everything. And that's what today's episode is about. Do you think that newfound confidence though with these chompers was that he could go back in there and get the job? Oh man, he thought he could shine bright in that room, you know? Yeah, he did. Okay. So stupid.

Kevin O'Connor, yeah. Third try here. Kevin O'Connor, multi-year DL. Of course. With Minnesota. The, man, the whole teams want to trade for Kevin O'Connor thing. That just, like, I don't doubt that just, like, I don't doubt it was true. Yeah, I would have loved for my franchise if we don't have a good coaching solution to be like, oh, that guy, he's turned around

the Minnesota Vikings program with Sam Darnold? He didn't have a contract, though, right? He was about to be up, yeah. Okay, so maybe that was what kind of spurned those rumors. But yeah, so he's back, that's great news. All right, we will have a full coaching changes episode in late February.

Oh, so much Rex Ryan in that episode. I wish, I wish. Now, Mike, now that you're aware, how disappointed are you he didn't get the job? Oh, so man, so disappointed. 2025 would have been lit, you know? The content that we could have come out that's all that matters we're pulling all these things off Just this is off the top of the head if you gave me some time in the lab Oh, I think about good teeth jokes. You don't know about it in five minutes ago. So just imagine what you could do

This is great. Congrats everybody. I'm not even here It was rumored they called him in for a secondary view, but he was getting his teeth whitening I'm not even here. It was rumored they called him in for a second interview, but he was getting his teeth whitened and could not make it. And that's why he didn't get the job. Sorry, is it a Wednesday, Friday, or Tuesday? Because that's what teeth whiten. Does he not drink coffee or anything?

You know what it is? It's been more amplified. Oh, I can't believe we're still talking about this. It's been more amplified because he's on ESPN and he gets the orange put on. Yes, I can see that. So they put the orange on. He's got the skin tanner on.

And when you've got that combined with the teeth at this level. Like everyone's, your teeth, they stain. Is there like a stain repellent you can put on your teeth? I think veneers don't stain. That's not possible. That's accurate.

But also good night, man. Yeah. Good night. I am just looking at pictures. This is great stuff. After picture. Ladies and gentlemen out there who were not aware of this, go search and if you find a picture of Rex Ryan in.

All these pictures in Slack are killing me. Here's what I want you to do right now, because we're recording this the day before. The Falcon, the picture you just shared in Slack, I want you to no context tweet it right now because we're recording this the day before. The Falcon, I want the picture you just shared in Slack, I want you to no context tweet it right now. Yes. Tweet that picture, do not say a thing, people will find it tomorrow. That guy is going to a rave. It's impressive. All right. We have... He's ready. Guys. This is the truth about Rex Ryan episode. We're gonna get to running backs, I promise. It's the off season. Yeah, that was today's News and Notes presented

by USA Insurance. Learn more at usaa.com slash insurance. Here we go. ["The Truth Is Here"] You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers? I want the truth!

You can't handle the truth. ["The Truth Is Here"] Did you make that graphic Falcon? Or was that something you found? He wishes. It was Grock. Oh, Grock made that for you? Okay. Moving on to a rather important position

in fantasy football this year. The running backs, the top 10 running backs, what is the truth? We look at consistency, we look at performances relative to their fantasy finish and tell you the impact that these guys really made on your team. So you have a proper evaluation of the season

and an outlook for next season that is right and fair. And we often bring up, like you can go back and listen to these again in about six months because when you're getting ready to draft, there are players who have, there are distortions to how consistent and helpful they were for your team. For sure. We'll talk about a couple of them today

that we gotta figure out what the truth is. I think there's one player on today's show that I'm not sure what the truth is, so hopefully you two can illuminate that for everyone and myself included. I can't think of anything. Yeah, you just say illuminate. You think about them teeth, man.

Yeah. 2024 crushed for running backs. Most total rush. In the rushing department, yeah. On the ground, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I guess I assumed... Yeah, I got what you're saying.

No, receiving production for Running Backs was actually down overall. The most total rushing fantasy points for Running Backs since 2011. The second most rushing touchdowns since 2011. And the receiving production did take a step back. It's the fewest receiving yards at the position since 2011. You know, I'm not surprised in some regard that that number has, you know, some of the more prolific running backs

in the receiving game aren't there anymore. They're getting older. Yeah, I mean, Austin Eckler. For a long stretch, there's 100 receptions a year. And McCaffrey missed basically the whole year. So it does make sense. And Kamara got injured as well. Yeah, so, you know, here we go.

We're gonna talk about the top 10 running backs. And I'm, you know, the breakdown here, 21 points is a great game. So we look at how many great games they had. Good games are 12 or more points. Bus games fewer than seven. We don't count miss games due to injury against their consistency score.

And Jason, just to make sure, we left week 18 out again. We did. Week 18 does not apply here. So number one, I guess in a new category, Saquon Barkley. He was the number one most consistent running back by our consistency metrics, 44% great, 75% good, only 6% bust games.

It was one bust game. It looks like that was week six against Cleveland. Yeah, I mean one bust game is great. When we were looking at the actual algorithm That's been you know tweaked and honed in on for a decade now at what we believe is the most accurate representation of the truth of these players You actually had Jameer Gibbs and B. John Robinson who had no bus games the entire season kind of grading out ahead of Saquon From a consistency standpoint, which makes sense because you didn't have that bust. But I can't in good

conscience say that Saquon was behind those guys in truth because our great games, biometric and half PPR, are north of 21 fantasy points. That's a great game. If your player goes out and scores 22 points, you had a great output from that and they should be scored as such. When a player goes out in half PPR and goes north of 30, that is a weak winning performance. We don't score for that because it's not very common. J know, Jamir Gibbs had one of them. We don't award bonus points for that is what you're saying. Right. Kieron Williams had one of them. You know, you had-

Saquon had five. Saquon had five. Yeah. Five times. He just flat won the week for you. So I was like, no, I don't want to skew and add in these crazy outlier games for, you know, that ruined the other players' rankings. I'm just taking Saquon out, putting him where he belongs with the crown on his head, and then, I mean, there was nothing bad about Saquon.

Seven runs of 40 plus yards. That's more than Todd Gurley ever had in his career. Four runs of 60 plus yards. Not including the playoffs, which he's already done it. Yeah, four runs of 60 plus is the same amount that CMC has his entire career. So there were breakaway runs and a lot of that came as a result of Saquon's talent and ability being combined with the elite offensive line production. 66.2% of his rushing yards came before contact

that is the highest rate among running backs with 200 plus carries in the last 10 years. The offensive line, it was basically like, sometimes you should take the layup in fantasy and not figure out why it's gonna fail, I guess, because you knew Saquon was doing everything with nothing in New York, and then you knew that, you know, players in Philadelphia were succeeding

at such a great level just because of the offensive line. De'Adre Swift, Miles Sanders, those players did not depart and look special, and then you say, okay, we're gonna give you the best offensive line to the best player, or one of the best players of the position players at the position Here's what should happen. It did happen. This is a case of it happened exactly how you would predict it to happen if everything comes together, I think the

Because I was on the side, you know guilty of I was not off not not anti-sequin, but I was a not off, not anti-sequence, but I was a little nervous, a little skeptical of what the changes that were gonna happen, and it's like, well, Jalen Hurts is good for, you know, what? 10 plus, rushing touchdowns. Can this offense with AJ Brenner-DeVante, so because passing touchdowns are gonna happen too,

and you have to just slot in 10 plus to Jalen Hurts. How about 14? How does Barkley, yeah, you got 14 this year. Yeah, how about 14? And Barkley's at 13. That was, I think that was the bigger surprise to me. It wasn't the, Barkley's gonna rip off huge games, cuz his athletic profile, he's

one of very few running backs in the league that can hit a 75-yard rushing touchdown. Not everybody can do that. People get caught. Saquon Barkley will not be caught. But to get to the point where you're like, 13 touchdowns, that was the part that I was hesitant and nervous about coming through. And the egg is on my face. is that was the part that I was hesitant and nervous about

coming through and I mean the egg is on my face. That was, it did not work out that way. It was across everything. I mean obviously he could have broken the rushing record if he played in week 18 so it wasn't just touchdowns. It wasn't just big plays. And I think a lot of this was the fact that the Philadelphia Eagles defense

was so much better this year that they were in a lot of winning game scripts where Jalen Hertz didn't need to air it out a lot. I don't expect their defense is very young. You know, they're two rookie corners that they both hit on this last year. Jalen Carter, their defensive line. So going forward to next year, you have to imagine it's not going to be necessarily as lapping the field as this year because Big plays are hard to come by but he Should be the number one running back drafted and there's no reason to look at next year and say that

Anything shouldn't work as well. I that anything shouldn't work as well. I was in the camp too where I was nervous about things going as perfectly as expected. I ended up trading Saquon in the pre-season and getting Gibbs and I lost. Yeah. I lost the trade like that. We're gonna talk about Gibbs in a minute.

Gibbs was great. You lost. And the touchdowns were, you're like, oh, it didn't see it being that great. But one of the bigger concerns was, okay, the Jalen Hurts, mobile quarterback, not a huge passing volume, just in general. We need to be at the top. Receiving does have to be in your profile unless you have an outlier year.

So it's like, if at the beginning of the, with all of the, oh, there's some unknowns here. He said, okay, Saquon's going to catch 33 passes for 278 yards. You go, oh, he's not the number one running back. No way. No, he's like, maybe. And tell him that Jalen Hurts is going to score 14 times on touch pushes. Maybe Saquon's a top five.

Yeah. Did he have such a, So this was a unique season. But he is a unique player. I think it's important to say it was a unique season that will probably not be repeated, too. Because Saquon has had a prolific injury history in recent years, avoided that entirely this year, which is super impressive.

I feel like we had at least a few times, too, during the season. We're like, oh, there it is. Yeah. There feel like we had at least a few times, too, during the season. We were like, oh, there it is. Yeah. There was the Saquon's d- oh, no, he's back. He's back. Everything's OK. First 16 game.

So he missed the last week, right? Correct. Yeah. So they sat him down. First time he's played six. OK, he played 16 in 2022 and in 2018. But he's had a lot of years where he's been banged up and the snap counts haven't been high. He's done okay for a career. Career high

and opportunities. So it's wild. We'll take a break. We'll jump in with number two, another elder statesman getting it done. Calling all sellers. Salesforce is hiring account executives to join us on the cutting edge of technology. Here innovation isn't a buzzword. It's a way of life. You'll be solving customer challenges faster with agents, winning with purpose, and showing the world what AI was meant to be.

Let's create the agent-first future together. Head to salesforce.com slash careers to learn more. Derrick Henry, 31 years old, drafted as the RB9 arrives in Baltimore, has a ho hum first week. It's okay, not a great week. First week people were freaked out. No, this is like week one. You're like, why is Derek Henry off the field so much?

And then right after that, we got the Harbaugh. We did not bring Saquon Barkley and I'm sorry, Derek Henry. We didn't bring him in here to give him every single touch. And it was, oh, oh no, this is gonna be what the fear side was of he's old, he's on a new team. Week one was when Jason felt so good about Isaiah Pacheco over Derek Henry.

Heck yeah, and week two. I was happy just because Pacheco was good both weeks, but that was wrong. So Derek Henry ends up number two in fantasy points, number four in consistency. He was the number one most consistent in the first half. It did slip to number six in the second half. 38% great, 81% good, 6% bust.

There were, despite the amazing season, there were times, I think that there was some frustration in the amount of snaps that like Justice Hill would be getting two minute drills, certain situations, rarely busted one time. Most consistent season of his career in terms of good games was 2024, 81% of the time. So even all those prolific top tier fantasy seasons, he never had this much consistency as he had in Baltimore. And that's, I mean, you gotta look at Baltimore's record, right, and how well they played on a regular basis.

On, Kyle's hitting us with this hot stat here, if Baltimore was leading or tied on 81% of his rush attempts. Like, that is- This is another one that just played out exactly how you'd be like, oh, perfect scenario for Henry. Put him in a team that was always winning. And we did talk about that a lot. Because the good Tennessee years,

they were winning a lot of games. Well, I mean, that was his career. We brought it up. In wins, this is across his career, he averages 19.2 fantasy points per game. In losses, 9.8. It is as big a split as any, you know, it's like the

historical Big Ben home road splits. Like it's one of those where you can bank on it if they're losing because he's not a pass catching back. If they're really, really losing a game, he can't do what he does. If they're winning, it's because he did what he does. So it's nice when you go to a team where you're like, how many games are they gonna win 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, you know, next year going into next season, you have to imagine they're going to win a lot of games again. Highest yards per carry in the NFL. Much better at home. 22.1 fantasy points versus on the road at 16.7. Saw 91% of Baltimore carries inside the five,

which is the highest percentage in the NFL, right? And like you said, just amazing. When the team is winning, he is, he takes the momentum and literally runs with it every single time. Like it becomes much more of a judgment call on the defender on whether they wanna try to stop this guy with their whole heart.

Yeah, the business decision. Yeah, so entering year two now for Derek Henry. And you had some hilarity of, like when you have running backs for Philadelphia or Buffalo and they get in close and you're like, oh, Josh Allen's gonna steal my James Cook touchdown. I know he's gonna do it. And it was, Lamar did steal touchdowns,

but because of play action. Like it was the, it was not the read option. I mean, Lamar had four rushing touchdowns on the year. So it was just, Lamar had four rushing touchdowns on the year. So it was just, if you had Henry, oh man, that was the worst when you get into the goal line. You just knew. You're like, it was done. They're gonna hit the play action

because if I were calling a play, even if I have Derek Henry, I think I'm going with the play action here. Yeah, they didn't do it that much though. I mean, he had 10 rushing touchdowns inside the five. When they got down there, they said, hey, big guy, go into the painted area. Yeah, 16, he was at 1921 yards.

Saquon was at 2005 and 16 rushing touchdowns. It was outrageous. Number three, bird of a different feather to some degree, right? Jameer Gibbs came in at number three in fantasy, number three in consistency, and in the first half and the second half, fourth and fourth.

I mean, very consistent. It was wild because of all the players that you would think would have more inconsistency. You would think it would be a guy that was in a committee until the last three weeks of the season. 81% good games, never busted, 31% great games. I had Jameer Gibbs on our league of record team throughout the entire year.

These games would start and you'd have a first quarter of no points and it was all the time. It would be David Montgomery gets the first drive, he scores and if the other team takes, you know it's a three and out here for the Lions. Look, the first quarter would end and I'd be in the single digits, low single digits with Gibbs,

and every game would turn out fine. And I had Montgomery on the other side. We won't talk about David Montgomery on today's episode. That'll be next one. But just spoiler, he was consistency rank number seven. I mean, he was as consistent as it comes. I don't know how this team, and do you have fears with Ben Johnson leaving

that the running game might change or do you have fears with Ben Johnson leaving that the running game might change, or do you have hopes that, as the Gibbs manager, that Gibbs will be more involved and it'll be less of this committee with a new offensive mindset? I think I would expect things as of right now to be very much the same. I think the identity, the way that Dan Campbell wants to be winning football

games is to hit people in the mouth and to use both of these guys that they have huge investments on. Like, Montgomery got a big contract, Gibbs was a high draft capital top 12 pick, right? So I don't think it changes. What changes, the fear of change to me is, because I think the running back split is, that's also part of Dan Campbell. I think he's going to be telling the offensive coordinator, no, we were going to play both guys. The concern would be they were the highest scoring team in football.

The highest scoring team in football is going to have a great fantasy running back, kind of just regardless. And they were fifth two years ago. They jump up to first this year. Can the offense, whoever's designing things for Jared Goff, will it be as successful? Because if they drop back down to fifth, which being a top five scoring offense is great,

you probably aren't getting this Jameer Gibbs. It'll still be great. If you drop down in scoring, it comes out of Montgomery's pocket, in my opinion. I agree. OK. Because you were facing Jameer Gibbs in your title game in our dynasty league.

Yes. And every time he gets given the ball, you're like, he can score. Yeah, I mean, he was number one in explosive runs. 10% of all carries went 15 plus yards. That's absurd. So one out of every 10 times you handed him the football, he got to the point where you were like, oh, he's gone.

Now, you were not always right, but that was the case. 25 runs of 15 plus yards, that is the same as Saquon, and Henry, despite getting fewer carries, he had 250 25 runs of 15 plus yards, that is the same as Saquon and Henry despite getting fewer carries. He had 250 carries for 1400 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns. That number, we'll see. We'll see if that number can stay up there.

But the fact you caught 52 passes, 517 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns, that's a 20 touchdown year from this guy. Yeah, I mean, it was incredible. The thing that I think most managers wanted to see more of from Gibbs was the passing work. He was involved, but David Montgomery was involved as well. If you look at the end of the season when Monte went down, the last five games, that's what you wanted from Jameer Gibbs. The last five games he was on pace for 90 targets. He was used all the time in the

passing game and it was very effective. You know, 9.8 yards per reception on those plays. For running back, that's a great number and it's an easy check down to a first down when you've got Jameer Gibbs. So hopefully the new coordinator comes in and says let's utilize him more in the passing. And they could stay in house. They could end up staying in house for that move. They usually do. I mean I do have fears a little bit of you know the Philadelphia Eagles. They were a great story, had such an awesome season, a great run to a Super Bowl. Their offense was outstanding, their defense was great, and then they lost both coordinators, and they really did struggle. They hired internal

in-house, and they said, hey, next man up, and that didn't work last the season prior to this one. They took a major step back. They had to replace both coordinators again with more proven commodities. So it's TBD for whether it just works for the Lions. I have to imagine they will regress as an offense this next year. Just by the... Just by simple odds. Teams finishing number one in points in back-to-back years is not common. You're telling me they lose their offensive coordinator who has been a big part

of what they've done and they're gonna stay there? It's probably not gonna happen. No, but they could be in the midst of a Rams-like run where you have a good handful of peak years. Yeah. And I would expect that. What's funny is the first three names are,

they're all players who, if you made the bowl case for them before the season, that bowl case came true. I'd say first four. Well, let's to number four Bijon Robinson. Consistency was number two. The second most consistent running back in football, number seven in the first half and really turned it on in the second half. He has been the kind of the posh pick I think for people to put it number one next year or put him at number two next year. put him at number two next

year it's been should we really be looking at Bijan at 22 years old going on 23 with the way he finished the season number two number eight number 11 8 5 2 all these top 10 finishes 81% good games 38% great in a season where you had a quarterback change is this the time that we finally hand the baton to B. John Robinson going into year three? Yeah, I mean, it was handed to him. It really, you know, you start the season and you had a lot of-

Well, us as fantasy managers is what I mean. Oh. Are we ready to hand him the baton at the top of the list? I think some people are. I'm not simply because of Saquon Barkley. I think that that team makeup is one that I want a part of more than the Atlanta Falcons. That would be the whole reason. If you swapped those players, if you put Bigeon on the Eagles, he would be everyone's number one. When you're not even 23 years old, you are

electric every single play, adding more every single play. Tyler Algier is a good player and they need to spell him and he would come in and do some stuff but then it would kill drives because Bijon every time he got the ball would make a cut and just get an extra three or four yards. He didn't have the same amount of breakaway runs like Jameer Gibbs like Saquon Barkley. What do you read into that? Because I noticed that too. That's how it felt. Yeah he was tried and true, but there were not those old school AP breakaway runs that made the headlines. Yeah, and that's, I think, what limits his upside

to just say he's absolutely going to be the number one player. Because those breakaway plays are almost always for the running back position. When you have a 60 yard run, it's a touchdown. It's a house call. So you're taking away, there's a reason Jameer Gibbs and Saquon Barkley have so many touchdowns because when they have these big plays, they end in an extra six fantasy points. Bichon didn't really have that, but what Bichon did have is 75% of the

snaps. And later in the year when they made the quarterback change, 82% of snaps. You started to see him utilized the way that he should be, the way that his talent and body and draft capital allows. And so it gives me a lot of confidence. Like he'll be my number two running back next year. You know what his longest run of the season is? I just looked up because I was curious.

I have no idea. I guess like, I don't know. 37 yards. What? I was gonna guess 36. Mike said 70 something because I was curious. I have no idea. I guess like I don't know 37 yards Oh, I'm gonna guess 36 Mike said 70 something and I retracted. Yeah his longest and on a per game basis If I read them out. Oh, I was just I 13 nightly up 13 19 7 9 28 16 26 13 16 37 9 that I it's just interesting to me because I don't I didn't have any shares of Bijon this year. So I didn't have my eyes on him as closely as maybe a Gibbs or even watching Derrick Henry who's on primetime all the time. Atlanta was not. And so I do feel like this is one

of the quieter, unless you had him, kind of a quiet number four finish. If you had him, you loved the ride. I mean, obviously, zero bus games the entire season. He had almost 2,000 combined all-purpose yards. So this was outstanding. His utilization just kept going north and north. I think with Michael Penick's going into year two, there should be a lot of optimism. To me, it's just touchdowns.

How many can he get? You know, I mean, it's not like he didn't score touchdowns this year, finished the last three weeks of the season two apiece and had 14 touchdowns. You believe in the future of Michael Pinnix and what that will provide for the offense and being, because you gotta be a top tier offense to really put up the kind of numbers that'll get number one.

It's difficult because the Pinnix Junior games, that was the final three games of the year, which was the Giants, Washington, which their defense was kind of relapsing a little bit in that span. And then the final week was Carolina. So it's like, we have not seen a true, Washington, that's a good matchup. But the Giants and Carolina, that's not a battle testing quarterback scenario for an entire season.

No, that's a little upsetting. It was nice though, those last two games, five targets. And you know, Bichon dominated. Bichon was great, but I like seeing in a game script where you're not being blown out, because a lot of times that's where the inflated inflated seven eight nine targets to a running back happens five targets in those games is really nice number five Josh Jacobs

Consistency rank Was number eight first half of the year sucked me first half of the year. He was he was all over the place Some question marks after four weeks you were like oh is this working? Is this working? Number 17 in consistency in the first half. Number five in the second half. 25% great, 63% good. Only one bust gain. Very good against both top and bottom Defenses so whether they were great or not very consistent same with home and road splits and This was not the backfield that maybe The Packers envisioned in the very very beginning

But they knew and one of the reasons I signed Jacobs was they knew he could handle a huge workload and 301 carries later 15 rushing touchdowns 1300 rushing yards contributed in the receiving game Obviously, this was a workhorse role for him and very impressive. He The end of season is so wild for him because I mean It was incredible. It is Definitely propped up by touchdowns. I mean, he had 15 rushing touchdowns on the year,

and the bulk of them came after the bye week, 12 of them. Through week seven. 12 of them were week 11 on. Yeah, I was gonna say through week seven, almost two months of the season, he had one touchdown. It was like- It was like 15. Yeah.

That's a furious pace. I mean, most touchdowns inside the tin of anybody. And then you have, and then over the stretch of that, incredibly effective in the receiving game, but then would have games with literally zero targets. So it's, I'm, he is a very difficult one, a very difficult guy to think about what really happened

and trying to project moving forward because it was so successful. He is a very good running back when he's not Fat Thor. But does this feel sticky for the Green Bay Packers for next year? It does to me. Do they, I mean they have been historically with LeFleur, they've been in a running back by committee,

and I don't think they had the true clientele to run that the way that they want to. They went into this season as far as not into week one, but they went into, after the NFL draft, with AJ Dillon as the backup, and then they drafted Marshawn Lloyd. Like that was, this was gonna be a committee with Josh Jacobs, Lloyd, and AJ Dillon,

and those two guys got injured. The backups, they did their best, but they just had to use Josh Jacobs. So I have a huge question next year as to whether or not Josh Jacobs is like, hey, I proved I could take 344 opportunities, not get injured, be awesome, score touchdowns, I became the machine, and I could see Matt LaFleur

being like, I can't go to an inferior back, like he can handle this. I can see that, but I can also, it's gonna be transactions. It's gonna be transactions to me. What is their actions? There won't be any more, I mean, this is, Josh Jacobs had already secured himself

as a workhorse running back in the vein of Saquon and Henry and those backs. And then they went and spent the money on him. Then he did it and delivered. I'm with you on the, it's not gonna be- But what if they go out and draft a running back? Or Marshawn Lloyd is actually- They have, I mean, they have personnel there already, right?

So- Well, they have Emanuel Wilson, but- Yeah, if they draft a running back super high, sure, you can change the conversation. But what I'm saying is, is Josh Jacobs in league circles and with the Packers, and with his history of running and playing the position. That is who he is. Oh, you don't want to bring up history, Andy. If you want to bring up history,

you're going to find out that Josh Jacobs was the running back eight in 2020. And then he fell to the running back 14. And then he was the running back three in 2022. And then he fell to the running back 27. And then the running back five. I mean, this is a red light, green light situation, so history says he's gonna have a bad year.

I can see all the arguments for him just saying that for next year. He's a year younger than Saquon on a winning football team that got all the red zone carries, and it worked. Next year he will be. This is why he'll be the least sexy pick for people. He's gonna be a really high pick.

That's why it'll be. He'll be a second round pick. People will take so many more sexy names over Josh Jacobs again for the third time in the last four years, they will draft the wrong guy. Whose offense is better next year, the Atlanta Falcons or the Green Bay Packers? Green Bay, absolutely.

Of course it is. Absolutely. Yeah, Jacobs will do what he continues to do because Matt LaFleur is a prolific offensive head coach. They have a franchise quarterback and it will be great. Just saying that coach Matt LaFleur is the one who kept putting AJ Dillon on the field over Aaron Jones.

I mean, they did put him on the field over Aaron Jones who was frequently hurt and always been a limited workload player. And a smaller back. And a smaller back. I really can see both sides because I talked about it a lot. I got this wrong. I talked about going into this season a lot. LaFleur himself came out and said, you know me, I want a committee.

I like using multiple backs. He said that so many times. It was clear. And he's got a pretty, you know, he's a trustworthy coach. So I don't know how much of it was the fact that he lost the players they had going into the season to be the committee you know if they get the back but also Josh Jacobs proved he can do it and Did it and is? Capable of doing if LaFleur decides I'm gonna use as a workhorse next year, he's gonna be great, period. That's what people do with Josh.

That's what they do, that's what he's been. So we'll see, we'll see. I do think that this will be the problem with people. This is why he'll drop down, is because people don't like Josh Jacobs for some reason. How low you think we can get him? I think you guys can drive him down even lower. Let's get him to the third, Mike.

We'll take a break. Ah, that's a tough, that's a tough ask. We'll give you the last five names here momentarily. ["Darkest Night of the Year"] ["Darkest Night of the Year"] Kyron Williams comes in at number six, was drafted as the RB8 in the second round. His consistency rank ended up at five. He was number two in the first half. The second half it did dip

to number 12 overall. 75% good games, no bust games, 13% great games. So you didn't have those monster, monster performances on a regular basis, but he, you know, 1200 yards, almost 1300 yards, 14 touchdowns, not a lot in the receiving game. 34 receptions for just 182 yards. So you ask, hey, how does a guy like that end up at six? He didn't really get involved in the receiving game. We should see some changes on the offensive side of the football for the Rams next year.

Yeah. But I mean, this was a successful season. Is that how you would describe the pick? I mean, I think if you took him where he was being drafted, you were very happy. You're very happy. I mean, he was the running back six. He was consistent.

He didn't bust. He won you some weeks and never really lost you. This is a player that I don't fully understand because he's 5'9", 200 pounds, he's a smaller back, he plays so strong and is so hard to take down. I mean, we loved his film in Notre Dame, loved him as a prospect, and it's so fun to watch him. I really enjoy watching Kieron Williams,

I just don't get how it works cuz he has strong muscle Not fast muscle. I do have some very important news. That's that's scientific. You can't argue that Kieron Williams returned How many punts? Oh, yes for the Los Angeles? Or at least the first one how many total punts I'll go Five I'm gonna go for twelve. All right, he received Twelve the whole punt returner narrative returned 21 punts in 2023 so he went down from 21 to 12

So this was one of the things that we talked about going into the season and one of my top 10 tips and tricks to remember Is that if you've got a great player who is succeeding and they draft depth at the position, do not be afraid of just saying that that player's great and they know he's great. Maybe that speaks to your Josh Jacobs argument that they're gonna keep using him that way because this was a player who two years ago

played 76% of the snaps and then they go and draft Blake Corum and you're like well he's not gonna be like that. Do you know how many... do you know the percentage of snaps you played this year? 81% they're like we could do it even more. Blake Corum averaged 3.4 rushing attempts per game. You had a period of time from weeks two to seven where No Puke Nakuwa was on the field. He was a red zone dominator. Over the last two years, he has 31 total touchdowns in 28 games played, only Gibbs matches that number.

And so he's entering the final year of his rookie contract. Does he get an extension? How long will the core of this team stay together? There's always questions about staffers. Get that shmoney, Kyron. Yeah, get that shmoney. The problem is you're playing for the Rams, who I feel like this regime, this general manager, this head coach, learned a very costly lesson when they had the best running back in the NFL in their eyes and Todd Gurley, and they paid him accordingly.

And then the running back did what running backs sometimes do. He fell off a map, he didn't have the same burst all of a sudden, and then you had to deal with cap hits for multiple years, hurting your team's chances. I don't know that they're gonna give him a big enough contract. Kyron needs to go get that money wherever he can get it. Yeah, he does.

I don't know if he'll command it on the open market or not, but I will say from a dynasty perspective, he is one of my, I have fears. I have no fear. Next year redraft, I will be all in on Kyron. I was all in on Kyron this year. The talent's too good, the offense is great. McVeigh knows how to use him. He plays well in the system.

They use him in the red zone. There's nothing not to like about Kyron Williams, but I'm not sure he's here two years from now. Which means you would want to involve the next up as well potentially if it helps you. They were getting Coram going at the end, he broke his arm, which is unfortunate. But Kyron, two straight years at RB6. Oh, don't do it again. There's a fragility with the Stafford situation

that's always gonna be there. I think he's back. Well, I don't mean just him leaving, but the injuries. Yeah. And what is this offense? What is the status with Cooper Cup? Lot of questions here. But I'm with Jason.

I will probably just be status quo with Kierman. He's great and he scores a lot of touchdowns. Devon H. Hanett, number seven. Jason's my guy. His consistency rank though? 17. This is the guy. This is the reality versus the fiction reality situation because drafted at RB 10

and I don't think your answer is I'm happy. I'm happy or unhappy? What was the uh I don't think you're happy. No you're not happy with a second round pick who through the first half of the year was the 27th most consistent running back when you needed him. So I don't not. Not happy, but you know what happened. Yeah, that is, so if we're talking about the truth, I mean, he couldn't get it done in the Tua-less offense. When Tua was out, which was two different stretches, week 17 and week 18 and weeks three through seven,

Tua didn't play for the concussion, and then what was the other injury? Is it back or something? I think it was a hip. Something like that. I think it was a hip. We'll find out. And Devon Aitchin was completely shut down. I mean you're talking a drastic split. To

put it in perspective, tell me if this changes your opinion here Andy on Devon Aitchin. If you remove, only those weeks leave all the two weeks when he played with two his consistency rank would have been number five which would have been ahead of Kyron Williams in the games that to a plate he was fantastic. That would have been 10 games. Yeah. He was very good with two. I mean he was different this year though.. He was very different. He would have had 75% good games, 0% bust games. Now obviously you've got a double whammy of injury risk with Devon Aitcham because he

is in and of himself someone that's been injured before and he's undersized. And then Tua is always an injury risk. This is the first tier of running back that we're talking about today where there are more variables that can go wrong. Yes. They don't have to go where there are more variables that can go wrong. They don't have to go wrong. There are variables that can go wrong. His injuries, two of his injuries, the offensive system, Tyre Kill, Jalen Waddle,

short area targets, no breakaway plays, all of these things. McDonald's. Like the way that A-chan got it done last year isn't the way he got it done this year. Oh, correct. Last year it was all breakaway, explosive plays. This year he was a wide receiver. Yeah, he was. way he got it done this year. Oh, correct. Last year it was all breakaway explosives. Explosive plays, yeah.

This year he was a wide receiver. Yeah, he was. He was a wide receiver this year. And every running back, every running back's gonna take a hit of some kind. And most are basically missed the year too. If you don't have your starting quarterback, because your offense won't be as good.

Yeah, I don't want to discredit how good he was at Tua. I just, even his good games were different than last year. Yes. So it's hard to predict the future with him compared to the other six. But I'm saying, like, go to the Baltimore Ravens, Lamar misses three games, Derrick Henry doesn't vanish into the mist.

Correct. The Philadelphia Eagles, Sequon Barkley doesn't disappear because different arc type of a player, and the fact, it's, A-chain is so weird, because that, in fantasy, if you're in a half or a full point scoring for, per catch, you want, you want this more, like you want 70 plus

receptions more than you want the 250 plus carries. There's targets and receptions are worth so much more, but if you lose that completely when your quarterback's gone, he's just, he is a very sketchy pick. Number eight is James Cook, who is Mike's My Guy, drafted at RB 14 in the fourth round. Consistency of nine, definitely a win. You saw what he was capable of. I'm taking a win on My Guy. Yeah. Go on. Okay. Thousand yards, 16 touchdowns, 38 targets, 32 receptions, 27% great games, 60% good, 13% busts. He was, he took advantage of bad defenses. They were a team that when they were ahead, they knew the recipe. The recipe was to

hand that football off. He definitely had a lot of big plays. It was fun to watch this year. The identity of the offense changed. And the team struggled to find weapons in the passing game. I didn't need to for a lot of games. But I mean, he had fewer opportunity snaps and yards than last year and yet had 16 rushing touchdowns. But Andy. Oh, voice of public opinion.

Haven't heard from you in a while. I thought that they won't use James Cook around the goal line and he can only have two rushing touchdowns a year and that was the whole knock on him. Yeah it was weird because it's not like Josh Allen wasn't scoring. Two rushing touchdowns rookie year, two rushing touchdowns sophomore year. They're like when we get around the goal line we're not gonna let up. 16! He tied O OJ. I won't have him next year I won't have James go You know

I won't because I think the the passing pendulum will swing back and forth a little bit year to year Ray Davis is a really good player They showed a willingness to use different players in different scenarios and 16 rushing touchdowns is very very very hard to repeat I don't care if you lose Shawn McCoy. I don't care if you're Derek. Well, not Derek Henry can repeat But I don't care who you are. It's hardoy. I don't care if you're Derek, well, not Derek Henry can repeat. But I don't care who you are, it's hard to report that number. Yeah, the lack of opportunities, it wasn't just Ray Davis.

I mean, you got, Ty Johnson's getting important work in here. James Cook, it doesn't seem like he will ever be way over this in terms of opportunities. So he is capped, and his ceiling is capped by the amount of touchdowns he gets, but he's a great, efficient player. Any thoughts on James Cook there? It's just crazy to me that he was the running back 11

last year with two touchdowns. He had 16 this year, and he was the running back eight. Yeah. All right, we'll put a pin in it. We have a second episode for the running back truth coming up, and we will tackle Running Backs 9 through however many we can get through on our next episode. But first.

Fantasy Face Off presented by Draftkings. Look who's back, boys. Mike's got his crown! The king of the castle! Jason and I flamed out this week we'll just be honest about it. Mike continues his hot streak. I was trying to find my notes on the two I picked this week. I had to scroll through so many pictures of Rex Ryan's teeth before I could get to my two picks. Last week, I'm actually rolling out the exact same player this week. I am taking Josh Allen over 228.5 passing yards against the Chiefs. And then I am taking 28.5 passing yards against the Chiefs. Okay.

And then I am taking Travis Kelsey under 70.5 receiving yards. Wait a minute, read that again. Read that again. Alan over 228.5, Kelsey under 70.5 receiving. Well, I have Kelsey under 70 and a half yards receiving, and I have more than Josh Allen, but I got 229 and a half, so.

Oh, you didn't get in fast enough. If he gets 229, I'm gonna be so pissed. You picked the same two. Wow. I did, so tell the people. The two clowns over here just playing in the mud. Mike, what did you do? Things are looking up for you.

That's wild. I, so for this week's pick six, as we're giving you two of our picks, I have Josh Allen. I'm taking the more on the rushing touchdowns. Because when the big games are on the line. Is that 0.5? Yes.

So all he needs is one. When the big games are on the line, Josh Allen runs six rushing touchdowns over his last six playoff games. The numbers are he runs more in the playoffs because he's not taking no chances. And then I'm going to take Kareem Hunt more than 36 and a half rushing yards. He's been getting more work. Pacheco was my last last week because he just Pacheco does not look the same. Not that I think Kareem Hunt is amazing, but it's 36 and a half rushing yards and the Buffalo Bills defense, they're a bit of a run funnel right now.

So I like him more than 36 and a half. So those are our picks, picks, picks for the upcoming championship weekend. That was Fantasy Face Off presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. DraftKings Sportsbook is crowning a king of the end zone every NFL game day. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use the code ballers.

That is the code ballers to compete for a share of $2 million in bonus bets. Only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Don't worry. We've got a foot cast for all of you supporting the show at JoinTheFoot.com coming out later today. And we have another episode, the part two of our running back truth next week. Enjoy the football, everybody.

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