Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - The TRUTH: RBs Part 2 + Surprising Stats - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/30

Episode Date: January 30, 2024

RB deep dive on today’s fantasy football podcast! Conference Championship reactions and THE TRUTH about running backs continued! Get a closer look at last year’s fantasy performances from Tony Pollard, James Cook, Isiah Pacheco, and many others! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for January 30th, 2023. Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on Twitter Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,

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Welcome in. the fantasy footballers mike right jason moore andy holloway tuesday episode of the show happy to have you with us our first opportunity to react to the championship weekend, and we have running back truth on today's episode as well. So let's react. Let's talk about it. Let's work through our feelings. Jason, we may or may not have made a list of the eight playoff teams.

Everyone in our studio put together their list of who they're rooting for the most. Oh, everybody wants Detroit, the underdog, the great story, or whatever. And the bottom of that list. For almost everybody. In fact, it might have been everybody. The bottom of the list was the San Francisco 49ers because- We're Cardinal fans. Yeah, divisional.

Never going to root for those turds. And then the Kansas City Chiefs because I think mostly it's boring. Yeah, I mean, what is it, four or five years now? I am bored. How are you? I'm bored in as much as I was bored with the Patriots and as much as I was bored with any dynasty in any sport that isn't my team. Yeah.

I'm not saying I am not biased. I guarantee you Chiefs fans are not bored and 49er fans are not bored. They're excited. I get that. But there's not a part of you that. There's a part of me that recognizes history. The history. I'm saying like my journey with football,

like back when I started really fully caring and being a diehard of the league, not just paying attention to my team, I was not really in the Tom Brady era. I mean, I saw a lot of Tom Brady, saw a lot of Tom Brady wins. But to me, when I think about myself, he's not a quarterback of my era. Really? Yeah, it's slightly older. And maybe that doesn't make sense for people just saying, when I jumped into the NFL, and this to me is like cheering for LeBron. This is your Jordan?

It's like Jordan was a – we were super young when Jordan was dominating. And LeBron comes around and you go, can he become the greatest of all time? I'm going to root for that. If he's already winning, I'm going to root for it. So now I'm kind of on the side of, I get it. I would have loved to have two fresh teams in. I really wanted Lamar Jackson in the Super Bowl. But now that Mahomes is in, well, make Mahomes clearly the best of all time.

I think we're all rooting for the Chiefs now for that reason. We are. Because of the 49ers situation. But I just, if you're not going to beat Patrick Mahomes now, AFC, when are you going to do it? I mean, this was a really sort of pedestrian year filled with drops. Well, the offense, but the defense was excellent. Yes, the defense was excellent, but yes, I'm talking about the Mahomes offense.

I mean, you are without any real options at wide receiver outside of Rashi Rice, and you still get it done. Sir, your defense. You forgot the game closer, my man. The defense held Kansas City to 17 points. You're talking about MBS. Yeah. And what Detroit could have done with him on third down.

That would have really helped the Josh Reynolds situation. The Detroit game is one that's been rehashed in the media constantly, 34-31 San Francisco. Massive lead for Detroit. 24-7 at one point. We've all gone through the narrative storyline of Dan Campbell's not kicking the field goals. Look, it's a results business.

You make a certain call, and if it doesn't go your way, you're definitely going to be wrong. I'm in the middle of this situation. The numbers, the math says that 15 out of 20 times in the season when they did this, when they went forward in that situation, they got it. And they were two for two in the playoffs up to that point. Badgley, low field goal percentage beyond 40 yards. That being said, the one I take more issue with was the first one,

not the second one. The second one I think was the right call to go for it when you knew that San Francisco was going to get the ball back. They had the momentum. You need to take some clock up. I'm fine with that one. I don't know if Badgley hits a 45, 46 yarder anyways. The first one when you had a chance to make it a three-score game

to me, that was the mistake because three-score game to me, that was the mistake. Because three-score games, psychologically, it's impactful, right? San Francisco, you know, it gets in the back of your head. We got to be perfect to get back in this game. You're talking about the end of the first half. I'm talking about the time when Josh Reynolds had the drop. Yeah. Yeah.

And the first one was, am I remembering it right? The first one was far more egregious than the second. The first drop was, yeah. Like they both should have been caught, but the first one was like, holy crap. The second one was a third down, and then they end up having to punt because of it. The first one was a fourth down, and it was a harder catch. Oh, that was the harder catch. That was the more difficult catch, but still very catchable.

But to me, that was the mistake. Like if you look at it from a you know momentum standpoint to me you kick that field goal you go up three scores and then you put you put the 49ers in position they're not normally in which is like which they were already and credit to brock purdy credit to the defense credit to you know you had to have a fumble and a fourth down failure and two touchdowns to get it done but and a bobble insane yeah i mean the iu touchdowns to get it done. And a bobble, insane bobble catch down the field. Yeah, I mean, the IU catch was ridiculous because that ball was not a good ball. The string of events that brought the comeback were incredible. But, like, the Lions were here.

They made it this far in part because of how they played. Exactly. You can't – throughout the entire season, they made several aggressive decisions that worked. They made some that didn't, including the referee debacle of who is eligible, who is not. But this is who the team was. I mean, it would be like the Baltimore Ravens who –

I'm all about throw first, but their game plan of – it would be like the Baltimore Ravens who I don't I'm all about throw first but their game plan of basically never running the ball and Lamar not running the amount that we're used to their offense turned into a team that

hadn't got them to this point and they scored 10 points because of it yeah Lamar Jackson this is from jared bailey on twitter on foreign playoff games when his opponent scores more than 13 points it's not great that's that's and jason you were saying it to the chief scored 17 points yeah you're the you are the number one seed in the afc at home you're gonna win the mvp award. You held the other team to 17 points, and you lost. That's a brutal, brutal loss.

And some blame really does need to go Lamar's way. There were so many plays he should have ran where he didn't. Yes, I agree. And there were – I know it was raining. Maybe call the game different. But over and over and over and over, he just overthrew that nine route on the sideline. He missed throws. He made some baffling scramble

decisions. They're not a comeback team. And this is why the Kellen Moores and the Monkins of the world don't always aren't as popularized at the NFL level as they are in fantasy football. We like throw first for fantasy.

We liked what Kellen Moore did and what we thought he was doing in Dallas. But, look, at some point in time, you've got to run the football. Yeah. Also, hold on to it when you're diving into the end zone. Oh, gosh. Well, I mean, look, the two rookies. And then don't slice your hand open because you get real mad. If you want to know why rookies don't get opportunities sometimes or were mad that

david montgomery had the ball too much to start the year like unfortunately it's like gibbs and zay flowers if they don't make those two plays literally both teams might have won those games those are massive massive plays they call they call that a rookie mistake yeah for a reason it was uh and montgomery was so good in this game that it was that would they both were but call that a rookie mistake for a reason. It was, and Montgomery was so good in this game that it was they both were, but that was another shocking thing of when they were losing

the lead, it felt like why aren't you going to Montgomery? He's been playing fantastic. What's crazy is, and I think it was Emmanuel Ocho that brought it up, but there were 10 possessions in the game for Detroit. They scored a touchdown or a field goal on five of them. Then there were two possessions that they turned it over on downs

that were field goal eligible. So if you had kicked it there and got points, you would have had points on seven of 10 total drives in the game. And then in the three different possessions where they didn't score, they still held the ball for like three minutes and took up time and took up clock. So it's like they played as almost as flawless of an offensive game as you can get,

but the mistakes and obviously not converting those. I mean, it's a, it's why it's the playoffs. So it was, uh, it's the chiefs. It's the 49ers in two weeks.

And then we will be on to 2024. And I can tell you right here, right now, the Dynasty Pass, which will debut on February 11th with the Super Bowl pre-release of the UDK. The Dynasty Pass, the crew is hard at work. We're already in the scouting process for rookies. Yep. You know, quite a few wide receivers that are going to make headlines this year. If you want a review, kind of it's like an overarching view of this year's class,

tomorrow's Dynasty Pod episode is about that. It's not a deep dive into these guys, but just getting you familiar with the movers and the shakers and this dynasty, talking some strategies. Yeah, it's very valuable if you want to start getting those names in your head. I am curious, Mike, did you guys discuss which players all have a chance to get having zero picks in our dynasty rookie draft? I think you're not going to get any. Yeah.

Oh, I see. I see what you're saying. But you, but just for clarity, that's also for the next three years. We all do things differently. Let's talk a little bit of news.

News and notes from around the league. Well, after a lot of Bill Belichick chatter, the Falcons hired former Rams DC, former head coach Raheem Morris. So the Falcons bring in Raheem Morris, and then they bring in passing game coordinator Zach Robinson from the Rams as well. He'll be their new OC, and we all exhale

and have a summer of potential here with Kyle Pitts, Bijon Robinson, Drake London, and whoever their quarterback is. It's, I think, about as positive as it can get. The hiring of Raheem Morris, I mean, fantasy-wise, you're like, oh, come on. We got another defensive-minded guy up front. But, I mean, the impassioned support of him from, I believe, Tomlin had one out there for sure, which that carries weight. And then I think Kyle Shanahan had one out there as well,

saying that it's about time that Morris is a head coach. Okay, you need someone who can run the group, but then the concern becomes get someone who knows offense in there. And the Cologne de McVeay has been spritzed yet again. We'll see if it works, but at least get someone from that McVay tree over there in Atlanta. You're right, Andy. We have some hope.

And when you say about time, about time he got another job, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's what I'm saying. Because he was a four-year head coach. He actually was an interim head coach in Atlanta for part of a year after Dan Quinn, but he was a three-year head coach. He actually was an interim head coach in Atlanta for part of a year after Dan Quinn, but he was a three-year head coach in Tampa Bay previously in 2009, 10, and 11. But, yeah, he's one of the more respected, trusted leaders in the game.

And, yeah, there's a lot of optimism there. I think the retread fears were there for the Bill Belichick to Atlanta. I mean, you know, you're going backwards in some ways. I mean. Yeah. It looks right now like Bill Belichick will not be a head coach in the NFL. Him and Pete Carroll forcibly retired. I don't know who it was talking about Belichick to the Chiefs.

What? To the Chiefs? Yeah. What? As what? Well, there's a lot of talk of Andy Reid retiring after this year. So, you know, it's a good storyline, right? That's wild.

Reid is on a trajectory to now become the best coach of all time. He could snatch it from Belichick. I will not be surprised, though, if he walked away. I don't think he's the kind – Belichick's the kind of coach that would take that job to make sure he secures the records. To me, Reid is not a records guy. Could be, but it's right there. Yeah.

I think the team is preparing and just counting their blessings for every read year that they get dave canalis jason head coach of the carolina panthers yeah any thoughts on whether you think he'll get a head coaching job this year uh obviously he's gonna get a head coaching job this was really funny the last episode on the running back truth part one we were talking about rashad white and about how I believe his entire staff, the GM, the head coach, the offensive coordinator, should all return.

And that would be really, really good for Rashad White because they've already shown their trust and their belief in him. So I said, I did not think that Dave Kanellis would be a head coach, but he is a head coach. A few moments later, it was literally simultaneous. He was signing papers while you were condemning him.

Yes, it was just like the only time that's ever happened was the Cortland Sutton immediate moment signing. I mean, that's an immediate frozen hot take. Yeah. Oh, yeah. So, obviously, it does have some impact on the Buccaneers losing their offensive coordinator. This is the same thing that happened. We talked about how Geno Smith, how Baker Mayfield was like the the the 2022 Geno Smith, the resurgence. He had good receiving options. One thing in common there was Dave Canales, who was the quarterback's coach for Geno Smith in Seattle, and then he moved away, went to the Bucs, and all of a sudden Geno

had a down year. Now he moves away from the Bucs, and if Baker resigns, it'll be interesting to see if he pumpkins like Geno did. Well, and it's the best-case scenario for Bryce Young. Bryce Young needs the best shot at success, and why not bring in the guy that's literally made Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield into something? And Bryce Young seems to need a lot of work, like some fundamental work, to succeed at the NFL level.

If I'm a Carolina fan, I'm pretty happy. Yeah. Joe Brady promoted to full-time offensive coordinator with the Bills. Hooray. He was their interim. He's got the Stephon Diggs eraser on the back of the pencil. And we'll see if that happens next year. He'll be an interesting draft pick.

I mean, think about going into a redraft situation and what do you do with Stephon Diggs? Yeah. I mean, he won't be drafted where he has been the last couple years but it will be it'll be tantalizing to a guy who's probably going to go wide receiver you think it later than wide receiver eight yeah so where would you put where do you i think i think he's going to be like 12. Okay. But I'm saying drafting a wide receiver 12 who you know is like a half a year

removed from being a dominant top three fantasy wide receiver. So that's going to be very tricky to not actually go after him. All right. All right. Kellen Moore, new offensive coordinator for the Eagles. I love this personally. I think we were talking this morning, Andy and I, about the coordinators. You lost your OC and your DC for Philly because of the Super Bowl run,

and you tried to do next man up. You tried to do, hey, you guys were behind them. It's your turn to get the job. I hope you're ready for it. They were not ready for it. Even when they were winning games and were 10-1 or whatever, it was like, you saw, we talked about, the offense doesn't look the same. The secondary is not very good.

And so now, for the second year in a row, you're replacing your OC and your DC, which sucks. But you're going from, I hope you can succeed at this job in the NFL. You're getting the opportunity. To, you two gentlemen have succeeded in the NFL for multiple teams. I know Kellen Moore was, you could argue it was a little bit disappointing with the Chargers this year, but the Chargers offense was pretty good to start the year. Then they lost Mike Williams, then they lost Eckler to injury, then eventually lost Herbert for the end of the season. So I think Kellen Moore is a good offensive coordinator. I'm excited. I'm

happy that the Eagles franchise is bringing in two known commodities. I think it'll be good for a bounce back and gives you just confidence in a resurgence of the powerful offense from two years ago. Yeah, it at least gives you optimism that they can get back to that point. If you move forward with the exact same coordinators, that would be kind of a discouraging place to be. They're going to throw everything at fixing it. TJ Hawkinson underwent surgery yesterday to reconstruct his ACL. This is quite the delay from the injury. Oftentimes they let swelling go down,

and they do what Matthew Betts has dubbed the prehab, where before surgery you do some work to help make the rehab after surgery faster but you're gonna need it to be yeah you you are because a nine month timeline puts him into october yeah it's basically halloween it's the end of hawk of uh hawk to, baby, it was right there. Well, we can all look forward to Hawktober when he returns, right? So it does seem like a real strong candidate for the pup. And or if for some reason.

Nope. I'm getting news, Jason. He is ahead of schedule. Oh, really? Incredible. He woke up. He got out of post-op, really? Already. Incredible. He woke up. He got out of post-op way faster than he's supposed to. Yeah, it should be like another hour he's still in there.

Way ahead of schedule. I don't even want him ahead of schedule. I need October to happen. But I do think it's worth knowing if he is ahead of schedule, which he will be because everyone is, and somehow does not go on the pop. I would be, I would just be very pessimistic towards his production at the beginning of the season. If he beats that timeline, unfortunate injury for a guy that was, you know,

first half of the year when cousins was healthy and he was there really nice for fantasy football. All right. That'll do it for news. Quick break. And we'll come back with the truth. All right, we're back. It's time to open up the second part of our truth episode on running backs. We talked through the top 10 running back finishers last week.

And, you know, more interesting names today. So let's get it going. You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers. I want the truth. You can't handle the truth. All right.

Last week we talked about the declining numbers at the running back position in terms of receiving work. Injuries definitely impacted that under utilization of talent at times, Bijan Robinson. And blocking. Yeah, and you even had just the overall rushing numbers have been down in terms of the league leader for the second consecutive year. But right now they're being asked to block a lot, like you said, right?

It's a passing game. The most trusted pass blockers, they're on the field. You're excited about that hold. Oh, they get third down. But if they're in there blocking, they're not catching the football, and the block rate for running backs is the highest since 2017. Yeah, they were asked to block on 18% of their passing plays. That's not including fullbacks.

So there is a lot of stand in here and protect the quarterback going on. Now, whether that is prescriptive of it's becoming more of a passing league, you're going to see this more often or just random. You know, I lean towards it being a little bit more noisy. You look over the last week, we've got the data here looking from 2017. The last time it was the highest it had been at 17.5, the following year was the lowest it had been with 15.9. So you had a lot of quarterback injuries,

probably needing to protect the less experienced guys in there. I don't think this is prescriptive for what we're going to see next year. I do. Observationally, and we'll get into the tight end truth episode, so I'll be curious if I'm just flat wrong because I haven't pulled that data up yet, but running backs targeted on

18% of the routes this year. That's a drop from last year. The tight end screen game and the emergence of some of these rookie tight ends, I am curious. Tight end involvement, Trey McBride and Musgrave and obviously Laporta and some of these other players involved in, even like the comical John Smith involvement in Atlanta where it's like all of a sudden John Smith's getting screens on every play. I'm curious what the tight end involvement and whether

that had an impact on that targets per route run, target percentage on routes. We'll take a look at that later on. Last week on the first episode, it was McCaffrey, Mostert, Achan, Etienne Hall, Mixon, Williams,

White, Henry, Robinson, and the Gibbs-Montgomery combo we talked about. Looking at the truth data, looking at the amount of great games each player has, 21 or more points, good games, 12 or more, bust games, seven or fewer. So let's move to number 11. I can tell you as someone who drafted this player, played this player, traded this player, it was a weird year for this player, and yet I think we all know very weird

i think we knew the talent from the first snap of the year but utilization was a little bit difficult and you'll see it in these truth numbers james cook at 11 drafted in the seventh round is the running back 30 so by that standard obviously a huge value in fantasy drafts consistency rank 21 and you might say to yourself oh he must have been really consistent in the second half well not that consistent i mean he was 16th in the second half 25th in the first so it did get better i know i struggled with always getting the wrong week with james cook in the first half of the year it's one of the reasons i moved him at the trade deadline is it was like okay i know what he's capable of but the first half of the year it's one of the reasons I moved him at the trade deadline is it was like okay I know what he's capable of but the first half of the year was you know up and down and he really

didn't have any of those top tier performances like he did from week you know in week 14 and 15 so it's 35% bust rate for James Cook 47% good 12% great um it just It's such a shame with him to not really be allowed the goal line work. I don't think, you know, we see it all the time where you've got packages and your system, whatever your offensive coach comes in with, says we're going to work the goal line package with this player. And so when they get down inside the 10, inside the five, they send in their, you know, what they've been practicing. It's just what happens. And it is what happened with the bills. And it is what will continue to happen next year on the

course of the entire season. Uh, you, you had, you had James cook with five carries inside the five through 17 games. I mean, you saw it all the time. He would get them there. He would be awesome. He would be gashing the defense, and then it's like, thank you for your service. You are no longer required. I'll take it from here, James.

Yeah. Was that the voice of Latavius Murray? That's all of them. Yeah, he was a between-the-20s gasher. I mean, number one in yards before contact, identity. I think this is where you look into the future. Murray has 12 carries inside the five. That was stupid.

What are you doing? Look at the second half of the year and the utilization when they were finding their rhythm and when Joe Brady took over. Yeah. And then look to next year. The same way that you look with questions around Stephon Diggs, you're going to look at James Cook and say, okay, he's part of their identity. Now,

I would not be shocked if they had a name of relevance this offseason because they kept trying. It was Damian Harris to start the year. Damian Harris is gone. Then it's Latavius Murray. Then it's like, ah, clearly they kind of soured on Murray.

Then it's Leonard Fournette off the waiver wire. And then Fournette really didn't get enough opportunity. Then it was Ty Johnson. Ty Johnson. Yep. So I think they were trying to find the thunder to the lightning, so to speak, and they ended up with just. Just lightning.

Yeah, just lightning. So, you know, great offensive line great opportunity great offense some consistency and no coordinator coming back but this was the highest bus rate of a top 12 running back since 2017 so that's the truth that you're looking for that's really the truth you you can't sit here next year going into the draft season talking about how he was a running back one last year yes that is true oh he was a he was a top 12 running back but um that's not the experience that anyone had with him even the second half yeah it was it was tough because all it was was validation of the talent on these certain games where you're like oh man that that

was a top five performance that's what he's capable of on a weekly basis but you're always going to be second fiddle to josh allen josh allen's legs uh you know when you have a rushing quarterback that's always going to be a factor as well yeah so i i had what how many rushing touchdowns that allen have oh gosh over 15 i think it was 15. Somewhere around there. Maybe that's burying the lead a little bit, saying you had to fight Murray. Well, you had to fight Allen, too. Yes. Yeah, but give him those 12. Give him those 12 you gave Murray. Give him 10. Give him 10. Let Murray have

two. But I will not be drafting James Cook as a running back one next year. Saquon Barkley at 12, Mike. Will you be drafting him as an RB1 next year? 26.9 years old, the RB4 in fantasy drafts, consistency rank was 15. It was actually

fifth best in the first half of the year. He had missed some games. 20th in the second half. It was a red light, green light situation. Number one, the number 41, then a bye. Number five, the number 46, the number eight then a buy number five the number 46 the number eight the number 35 the number five like my eyes were impressed with saquon all year

heck yeah yeah because 30th ranked often like we talked about breach hall's efficiency and who was the the offensive line behind him tennessee yeah so those are the worst well you know the next worst was the giantsants at 30th. Yep. Obviously, we need the information of what team is Saquon Barkley on. But I think the questions of do we still have another year of Saquon because he's about to hit 27. He's about to hit the age cliff that comes for a lot of running backs. But Saquon will have at least one more year.

So yes, as of right now, I would be drafting him as an RB1. It's so interesting of the devil you know and the one you don't. Barkley on the Giants is the focal point of the offense. Is it better? Do we want him on the Giants, or do we want him to go to a different team? I think all you need is you need Saquon alone. You just need him to have the role of a workhorse, and more than likely you're going to get that next year.

He's going to require a lot of money and the team that invests in him will probably be doing so in an attempt to make a uh you know to make a real powerful acquisition now if he chooses he's gonna get franchised for one more year that's my that's what i think that's what i think is yeah to happen. Wow. Either that or a massaged franchise evasion by the Giants to keep him for another year. That's my prediction. I think he's very open to coming back, and to me, my answer to that question would be I would want him on the Giants.

Okay. Maybe that's because I don't have the imagination at this present moment in January of these other opportunities that could be out there. I mean, I guess you could put them on the chargers or something and, and excite the, uh, the possibilities. Um, but man, the odds of, you know, franchise him. It's just so, it's so mean, it's just mean spirited. You just said he's about to hit the age cliff. He's got one year left. You just gave them the information they needed, Mike. The franchising.

They have it. I'm not saying that business-wise it is the incorrect thing necessarily because you still have to deal with the ramifications of the locker room and all the other guys seeing what you're doing to the star player. Someone was just – there was an interview I caught a reel of. Someone from the Giants. But anyways, talking about how did you pay Daniel Jones before you paid Saquon Barkley.

That is a thing that happens. These guys support their brother and want him to get paid for seeing that. But what I was going to say of, if they franchise him again, I don't know that he just comes back in week one and is like, yeah, okay, let's do this again. Like, there could be a huge offseason. Okay. Yeah, hard to be a. Okay. Yeah.

Hard to be a running back. Yeah. The takeaway. He seems very open to it. To being a running back? No, to getting a franchise tag. Yeah. He wants it done early so he can focus on the season.

I think that would be nice. I think the truth about Saquon is he looked very good, and he should be very good for fantasy next season. You hope that they improve the situation around him. The quarterback play on the offensive line made it difficult. If he's got a better offense, he's going to be better for fantasy. He's in here at 12, making the top 12 despite missing three games during the year, but he finished at RB9 in points per game. Yeah.

So the story of Saquon is, look, I would have rather had Saquon Barkley as my running back than James Cook. Oh, for sure. At 13, that was David Montgomery who we covered with Jameer Gibbs in the first part. So we'll move to 14. 14. What a weird year. 14 was Alvin Kamara. He was awesome. The consistency rank for Kamara was three on the year. So the third most consistent running back. The first half was number two. The second half was 11.

You can kind of throw out 17 because he got injured mid game. So really you had one bus game. I don't know if you factored that into the bus percentage that last week. Yeah. The last week is included. He's consistency rank three, including the two bad games, which unfortunately- Which I would kind of throw out the last game because he left in the second quarter with an Is included. He's consistency ranked three, including the two bad games, which unfortunately – Which I would kind of throw out the last game because he left in the second quarter with an injury. Right, but the way that we do it is if you were going to be started that week, which he was active, so fantasy managers would have started him that week.

I could give you the – he probably doesn't move from three up, even if you take that away because Kyron and CMC were so consistent. But it's really unfortunate that those two weeks came in the fantasy playoffs, in the championship matchup where he got injured and the week prior, because he got a lot of teams to the playoffs. He was so doggone good for fantasy, especially if you were in PPR leagues. Well, I mean, almost exclusively in some regards

because you're just, he was a wide receiver. He was a PPR monster. He was only 3.9 a carry on the ground. He only scored in four games on the ground. This is one of the most interesting names possible going into next year. Mike and I were talking about it in the studio when you were out, Jay, just about Kendra Miller. He made a little bit of a splash on the final week of the year,

was injured the entire season. Jamal Williams is obviously going to be an afterthought and not part of the future. So looking at next year, it's like, well, if Kamara goes down to injury, does Kendra take over? You know, we've seen that kind of a takeover with the Saints, with Alvin Kamara in the past. The efficiency on the ground is obviously not what it once was.

Nor through the year. His yards per carry has essentially been going down for the past four years. I mean, that's expected. But also his yards per target over the last four years has decreased each and every one. Part of that is the way that Derek Carr, you know, was giving him negative average depth of target. But Kamara will be fascinating because Kendra Miller.

Kendra Miller to me is the big story heading into next year of he was hurt all year. If he's not hurt all year, does Kamara get that true workhorse usage that he had? Because Kamara has to have that in order to be this level of a fantasy player. People will still be excited, I think. Do you guys agree that the crowd will be excited to draft Kamara again? I think they will, based on how he performed this past year. And because of Kendra Miller already being on the roster, I doubt you have a big off-season splash.

Man, it's so crazy. I think it's dangerous. It's so crazy because I am not – You're not worried about Miller? I'm very worried about Miller in respect to hurting Kamara, and I'm very worried about Kamara overall. Okay, that's where I was. The first five weeks were so powerful for Kamara in terms of massive volume.

But beyond that point, look at his consistency in the second half. It was 11. Still good. But beyond that point, look at his consistency in the second half. It was 11. Still good. But you're talking like fringe RB1 situation. Where is he going to go relative to what kind of value he provides? He's going to be almost 29 years old when the season begins. So I do think there are question marks there. And what else?

You had injuries this year, right? Olave in and out of the lineup. Michael Thomas knocked out of the lineup. Who am I thinking of that also got hurt at the end of the season? New favorite, long target for Derek Carr. Rashid Shahid got banged up. I'm very nervous about Kamara's future. What do you think he is, Nick?

Do you think he's a top 12 running back in fantasy next year? Because I personally, I do. No, I do not. And I am a person who would love to say yes. I have him in really good record. I have him in dynasty. And I do not feel good about it. Relative to, like, I don't think this year is going to be representative of next year.

But if you're right, I'll be much happier. What this year represents to me is the passing work from Derek Carr. Both these guys under contract. They're going to be re-rolling and just the fact that he is used the way he's used

in the passing game. I just don't see that going away even if some of his groundwork goes away. But that's not where his fantasy value is at. Yards per target, 7.1, 6.6, 6.4, 5.4. That was what you were talking about earlier, Mike. All right. Tony Pollard at 15.

Huge, wet bust. Not sure that's the phrase I really – I don't think I really want to settle in on that. I was going to the wet fart. Yeah. The wet fart. Yeah. Okay.

Yeah. That's one way to describe it. Yeah. It's a wet fart. Tony Pollard at 15, drafted as the RB8, consistency rank of 20, was not consistent in the first half, was not consistent in the second half, was awful against great teams. Eight fancy points per game against the top 16 defenses.

He was significantly below average in his percentage of great games. 6%. Significantly below average in his percentage of good games. He was significantly above average in his percentage of bust games. He was just bad across the board. He salvaged a little bit during a stretch at the end of the year where he finally started getting touchdowns there's just no other way to say it other than he was a super disappointment for everything that you thought and and it just it happens every time people we can't we can't

keep falling for the efficient it's not every time. Who's the last efficient running back that got the opportunity? It was great. So Austin Eckler was how long ago when he got that changeover from being back up to the starter? Well, his first, you know, I don't know. Was that like 2008? More than two years ago. Not 18.

Let's see. So 2019. 2019 was when his opportunities kind of went up a little bit more or no was that the the gordon suspension i guess he was probably sharing some time with gordon then so maybe 2021 so melvin gordon yeah 2019 was melvin gordon's last year with the chargers so that's when the the transition was happening it just felt like you know what we saw with lamar miller we that's when the transition was happening. It just felt like what we saw with Lamar Miller. We mentioned this in the draft season of you have this hyper-efficient player who's now given the opportunity to be a workhorse,

and it doesn't always work out. And we just need to be aware of that because it's fair to say it doesn't always. Yeah, there's a lot of guys like that. Andre Ellington, remember him? Yeah. You get the backfield in Arizona. You're hyper-efficient. Look, it's just math, guys. I mean, it's just math.

You can't be as effective and efficient when you get lower value opportunities and carries. Obviously, he did not take advantage of the opportunity at hand. I think the team hurt because of it. You know, not being able to get into the end zone.

Tony Pollard is one of the biggest busts in fantasy football over the last couple of years. The huge thing for Tony Pollard was the goal line work. Like inside the five, he had 16 carries. That's so good. And that turned into three rushing touchdowns. Lowest fantasy point per touch for an RB1 on an NFL offense that averages what they did

in five years. He had two inside the five touchdowns the previous year on only seven opportunities. He more than doubled his opportunities this year and got one more touchdown. With the eighth ranked offensive line. We will see what the Dallas

Cowboys do. But it was like Kyle had pulled some numbers, and I was reminded, oh, yeah. You guys remember Nick Chubb's sophomore season when he had 16 carries inside the five and three rushing touchdowns? Like, he had 16 carries total inside the five and finished with negative nine rushing yards on those attempts. So I'm not disagreeing with you at all. I loved Tony Pollard. I drafted him in a lot of places.

It really hurt the team. But I'm not ready to condemn the future of Tony Pollard. Should he be back with Dallas? Oh, I'll condemn it. Okay. I'll condemn it for what – I don't think he can reach anything that people thought he could reach. I would agree.

I think he could be an RB2 happily in a committee. Yeah. His opportunity going forward as well, I don't believe a team, including the Cowboys, will say this is our workhorse going forward. They were, maybe you could argue, more successful with Rico Dowdle getting the ball than they were Tony Pollard. And he's a free agent. Same situation as Saquon. No, I know you said that.

I'm just pointing it out. Same situation as Saquon. Yeah, they've got to figure out, the Cowboys have to figure out who they're going to have in their running back room. I don't think it's just going to be Pollard by himself. Pacheco comes in at 16, drafted as the RB 29. So you're talking about, where was James Cook drafted? 30. So these are back-to-back picks, Pacheco and Cook.

Consistency rank of 13 on the year year 23rd in the first half number four in the second half obviously the recipe for kansas city became more and more run heavy and pacheco just runs and runs and runs and runs and then they try to tackle him and then he runs even more and then he just nobody wants it more i mean this is thomas rawls all over again he was very very good if you take out the first two weeks of the season because i know we see that he's running back four in the second half but truly you take out just those first two weeks where he wasn't very involved he was the the consistency rank of number four on the course of the season. He was very, very good.

It was a great pick in fantasy, and he's really established himself as kind of the engine to this offense, which sounds so weird to say when Mahomes is there. He makes this offense work without these wide receivers to be able to do anything well i mean we're not so far removed from kareem hunt in kansas city and when you don't split up the work amongst a bunch of different backs why wouldn't you have success in this kind of an offense 21 great 57 good 21 busts 24 years old next yearco, Mike, will be drafted where,

and where will he finish? He will be drafted, let's see, probably round three would be my guess. And I think it's worth it, but the fact that he was the engine, I mean, everything you're saying, he was the engine it i mean everything you're saying he was the engine of patrick mahomes offense and all kansas city needs to do over this offense is make some sort of splash with another wide receiver to pair with rishi rice and

it could that could turn upside down and they go right back to Mahomes is at 5,000 passing yards. If you could keep one running back going into next year between Raheem Mostert and Isaiah Pacheco, who would you keep? Oh, gosh. Raheem Mostert. That's an easy Mostert for me. That is... Man.

I'm not sure Pacheco doesn't get drafted ahead of Mostert. Yeah, that's fair. I think he probably will. Yeah, because of the age. That's a very, very tough call. I think he probably will. Yeah, because of the age. Just value. That's a very, very tough call. I think it's Pacheco. Joe Mixon or Pacheco?

Pacheco. I know he is establishing himself as a truly important piece of a potentially Super Bowl winning team, and should he do that two weeks from now and really cement himself as you know as that engine great but this is a seventh round pick Clyde Edwards a layer should be no he'll be gone gone that's what I'm saying I I think this is a team that's going to go and draft someone or sign someone and not just let it be a pacheco by himself so there is a there is it or you know you bring in a good wide receiver I think there's a way that it gets a little worse for Pacheco by himself. So there is, or, you know, you bring in a good wide receiver. I think there's a way that it gets a little worse for Pacheco in the future. I'm not saying it will, but it won't shock me.

All right, quick break. Back with some more names. All right, as we get to the tail end of this uh last in this episode i want to just throw some more names out there for you guys to just weigh in i mean obviously drum ford at 17 a product of opportunity with with nick chubb going down you can throw nick chubb into this conversation as well if you'd like to um drum ford was fine uh that's the best way to put it he was a top 24 in consistency he was not special in production yeah but if you like if you had picked up jerome ford off the waiver wire with like if you went aggressively after him with fab i think it

paid off for you you had had pretty much an RB2. He was a top 24 running back 11 different times. So, you know, next year, Nick Chubb coming back from IR. That's what it's all about. Jerome Ford is probably just Jerome backup. Yep. James Conner is a fun discussion. He comes in at 18, consistency of 19. First half was 24th.

Second half was 15th. 54% good, 23% great. It's a high number. And 38% bust. Yeah, it's worth knowing the last six weeks his consistency rank would have been the running back one. What? Ahead of Kyron, ahead of CMC.

Six weeks is a good sample. I mean, it's a third of the season yeah I mean he was great and also that was you know when you had Kyler back so there was an actual change in um maybe why the the Cardinals offense was not what you hoped it would be but it was certainly better than with the hodgepodge of backup quarterback here's what I'll say about Connor is that the Arizona Cardinals have a tremendous amount of needs on this team, and running back isn't one of them. Yeah, he's under contract.

They're not going to be investing free agent capital or high draft capital on running back. They better not. In my opinion. I think you know what you have in James Connor. You have so many needs elsewhere. So I think this is one of those, you might not hear another thing about the running back room in Arizona until kickoff.

I think that's a real possibility. And James Conner is just a known commodity for that roster and the coaching staff and the general manager. And they just, they got one more year of Conner. So are these final six weeks going to be prescriptive for all of next year? It's a tough call for a guy that gets hurt every single year and is going to be 29. Yeah, you know he's not playing a full season. His running style is terrible for his body.

Breaks too many tackles. I would love – breaks too many tackles and body parts. I would love to have James Conner on my team as my third running back drafted. I think that's realistic next year where he might... He went in the sixth round this year. He'll probably go north maybe fifth round. Not much higher.

Maybe the same spot. I think he would be a really good fifth or sixth round running back. Kenneth Walker comes in at 19. He was drafted as the RB 16. Consistency rank of 18. Second half consistency of 30.

He was so injured and banged up that second half. What we saw in the first half? You saw elite running back play from weeks two through seven. But he will have the Charbonnet question marks going into next year. And when a rookie gets into year two,

I think we're going to be talking about committee concerns. Sure. Do any of us think that Kenneth Walker can finish next year in the top five? I don't. Top five is a tall ask for him. I think top ten is in his range of outcomes. Yeah. I still think top ten because he was still a committee back

in terms of snap percentage through the majority of the season. No Pete Carroll. Right. What's the situation with Geno? He's not that good. We're back to he's not good? No, no, no. Not that good.

Okay. All right. Not as good as he was the year before. Kenneth Walker we know is very talented. He did miss some time. He was very hurt. But I think he's going to be one of those players that's difficult for me to to trust with in relation to where he's going to have to go and draft right

like if you're drafting kenneth walker um it's it's very etn-esque sure like you're you're you need the the big play rushing touchdown, which they both get a lot. But when they don't get them, it's going to end up being a very disappointing game. Touchdown dependent and not a lot of receptions. I mean, under 30 receptions. He doesn't catch as much as ETN. But Charbonnet was really disappointing to me. I think Charbonnet looked fine with his opportunities.

He didn't get that many. When you had Walker miss a game and you had a week where Charbonnet was a top 12 running back, but what you saw that surprised me was after he kind of showed his flashes and was on the field for 88% of the snaps, 61% of the snaps. When Walker came back the last month, all of a sudden you saw Charbonnet go down to four carries, two carries, two carries, and five carries for that last month. Walker was the starter. Charbonnet was the backup. The scary situation for me here, it's Pete Carroll. Yeah, for sure. Like the fact that the whole offensive velocity, the whole, you know, you don't know what this new,

I mean, right now we don't even know who the head coach is, so TBD, but it's hard to say you've got two talented backs. Kenneth Walker's still guaranteed to be the starter. I would have gone into this season saying that if Carroll was around. My point isn't that Ken Walker can't be a hugely impactful fantasy player. It's more that his pathway to being a disappointment seems so obvious because he doesn't have this huge baseline of pass-catching work. So if you take some touchdowns away from Kenneth Walker, right,

look at the rest of the numbers. 900 rushing yards, 250 receiving yards. Like, if he scores six times, that's not a wild and crazy stat with no Pete Carroll. Sure. But it's going to ruin you for fantasy probably. Yeah. Kyle pulled this gem out among second round rookie running backs over the

last decade with a hundred plus touches. Charbs 6.63 PPR points per game is ahead of only Bishop Sanky. Just say I stand by my, I was disappointing watching Charbonnet play. Yeah. I mean, I was disappointed watching Kenneth Walker play the second half Charbonnet play. Yeah, I mean, I was disappointed watching Kenneth Walker play his second half of the year too. Yeah. I mean, I'm with 30th in consistency. I don't, he'll

be the starter. I'm with Jason of he was hurt. Like if you had Walker on your fantasy roster, every single week was a oh crap. It was, you were, you're on every Friday. It was please, please tell me that Kenneth Walker is practicing so I at least have some hope that he's going to play.

So it was, he was very, which maybe he's just going to be that guy, you know, who gets banged up a lot. Because he also runs very violently. Do you realize how similar his numbers production-wise were from his rookie season? Mm-mm. 12.6 points per game as a rookie, 12.3 as a sophomore. Total points scored, 189 versus 185 on the year.

Almost the same amount of carries. Same touchdowns. Interesting. Same targets, same receptions. Almost identical. What about games played? Same. Incredible work. Same gamesions. Almost identical. What about games played? Same. Incredible work.

Same games played. Only difference is yards per a 10-point from 4.6 to 4.1. We talked about the big play dependency last year, and I think those games already busted out. You didn't get the big play. And I don't know how good Seattle's going to be. That is a fair point. So do you see him just as a running back too?

Yeah. Or are you like avoiding him for where he's probably going to be drafted? He'll probably be drafted in the top 15 running backs. Will you not take him there? You know, when you factor in the rookies coming in, I don't think so. No. I don't think I would take him i mean he dropped he went at 16 this past year and i would have felt better about him this past year with pete carroll

okay that's fair that's a tough one uh naji harris you guys have him in front of you there yes i don't i've pledged not to speak of him yeah not naji finished as the running back 21 uh second year in a row he was okay in the second half um very very bad in the first half so maybe he's a guy that you just avoid drafting and try to find him when the weather gets colder but hard to watch. It really was difficult to actually watch Najee this year. You don't enjoy that experience. What if Arthur Smith is the guy there?

Oh. Because he's been interviewed. There's a chance that Arthur Smith is the offensive coordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers where the revenge of the Sith. Now, he was good for Tennessee, Derrick Henry. And if you, you know, Najee Harris is not Derrick Henry, but he tries to be. I don't understand. Why are you?

What are you doing? Arthur Smith identified the only offensive situation he could improve. I think he's the Steelers. Yeah, the Canada Steelers offense. Smith identified the only offensive situation he could improve I think he's the dealer yeah the Canada the Steelers offense like that's the the bottom of the barrel already oh man I I mean 293 opportunities I'm rooting for it you're rooting for Arthur yeah for sure why are you doing that oh man it's just good for the show. It's good for content. Did you know that Najee was tied with Raheem Mostert for the fourth most games of 15-plus yards?

His second half was very good, and I don't want to undermine it with my lifetime bias. Yeah, RB8 from week seven on. Brian Robinson at 22, DeAndre Swift at 23. Any thoughts on those two, gentlemen? The DeAndre Swift at 23. Any thoughts on those two, gentlemen? The DeAndre Swift is what happened? Yeah, the first half of the season looked so good.

That offensive line was opening up holes. He's DeAndre Swift, guys. He always has been. Man, the second half. I mean, to be... He's Swift. To be honest, though, it wasn't just Swift. It was the team. You had Hurts banged up. So you gotta be 10-1 to have a good year from DeAndre Swift?

I guess so. I mean, that's what it feels like. Well, I mean, A.J. Brown. A.J. Brown was not that good the second half. Yeah, you're right. The Eagles did struggle over the second half. And he's a free agent. Yeah, we don't know where he's going to go.

Brian Robinson, we'll see what Washington does. We'll see if they, you know, do they bring in an offensive mind now that they can actually interview him from Detroit, Mr. Ben Johnson. Antonio Gibson will be a free agent. I think Brian Robinson is a competent guy. If he's put in the right situation, it could be a lot better for him, and I think he will still be drafted later. So the truth, weeks 1 through 11, technically the running back 4 in fantasy

helped by that week 2 performance against Denver. technically the running back for in fantasy, uh, helped by that week two performance against Denver. And I mean, he actually, he got more involved as a pass catcher. You know, the, the quarterback rating when targeting him was actually the highest in the NFL,

1.68 yards per route run. That was the fifth best amongst running backs. So I think there is, there should be some hope for Brian Robinson heading into next year. Austin Eckler finished at 28. Consistency of 39 in the second half, 29 on the year. The running back, too. Fundamentally the biggest bust in fantasy.

43% bust games, 36% good, 7% great. Missed time due to injury just as the icing on the dirty nasty cake. Big wet bust if I've ever heard of one. Yeah, I've heard of that. Just a classic phrase. Everybody says it's not from

me. I didn't make it up. It's a normal cliche. I've heard it a couple times now. Yeah, big wet normal cliche. I've heard it a couple times now. Yeah. Big wet bust. Now I've heard it several times. Now it's just a thing that you should incorporate into your lives. Not at the office. No, no, no.

Hashtag big wet bust. I don't know you want to do that. But don't search for the hashtag. Just don't click on the hashtag. Just use the hashtag. Don't search for it. No, you don't want to participate in viewing Big Web Bust. This is not good. All right.

Not good. But Eckler was one of those. I don't know if he plays football again. If he plays football again, it will be for a franchise that's trying to bring in a name. He will absolutely play football again. Really? Yes. You are living in a place of utter...

You have been through it with him, hand in hand. You went off the cliff in the van with Austin Eckler. Yes, I did. And you're like, I don't know if he'll walk again because you're not able to walk. For Jason's side, I think Eckler was talking about it. It was a video I saw a couple weeks ago at least. And if he plays, it will be up to Eckler. Will he take the lower money?

Because he's not going to get offered. He will. My point is he's come out and already talked about how catastrophic the injury situation was over the second half of the year. He is not looking at his production with the sun setting approach. He's looking at it. Now, yes, there may be a disconnect between money and expectation. That's all I'm talking about. But he will get a deal.

He's not going to get a big bag of money from anybody. He will not get a big bag of money from any team. Nobody's going to come and pay him superstar top five running back money. That would blow my mind. No, but he may get more than you think. That would be something I could see a team with cap space that needs some solidification in the backfield just deciding. I mean, Dalvin freaking Cook got to check this offseason.

Well, Dalvin Cook was coming off a good year. Dalvin Cook was great last year and younger. Dalvin Cook was not in demand of any sort. Exactly. And we all knew that he was done, right? So I guess it's just Eckler's going to have to take a – His role will change. I just don't believe that he –

Agreed. He has been a workhorse. He's been involved in the passing game, involved in the running game, a goal line guy, everything you want in fantasy, he has had all the opportunity. That version of his opportunity is gone. Yeah, it's death. Yeah, yards per carry, 52nd out of 61.

Yards after contact per rush, 47th of 50 qualifying running backs. And he has a life outside of football too. Well, he could become a fullback. Jonathan Taylor at 33, worth mentioning because his consistency was sixth. 33 is not respective of anything. 33 was because he didn't play that much. His consistency

in the second half of the year was three. So Jonathan Taylor He's awesome. Jonathan Taylor's going to be a first round draft pick. As he should be.

I love this offense. Their pace of play. And when you get Anthony Richardson in there, I'm maybe even more excited about it with the sole exception of vulturing goal line touchdowns uh Ramondre big bust yeah he was

RB 11 in drafts 30th inconsistency bad in the first and second half. Inconsistency. Injured. Zero percent great games. 42% busts. Did you guys see the little blurb that the Patriots are not planning on picking up Mac Jones' fifth-year option? No. Shocking. I know. It's not shocking seeing what happened throughout the year of he got benched, but it's shocking of, man. Yeah, you, Drake, may not want to pick up that option yes yeah uh also romandre he's under contract for 2024

already that's the final year of his rookie deal so he'll be there yeah and depending on how far he drops he may be a target he could uh with a new head coach and a new quarterback. Aaron Jones at 37, consistency of 28. Aaron Jones was a lost season. His season got started in Week 15. And so you got about three weeks of top 24 play. And, yeah, I mean, this was a huge bust. I mean, you drafted him at RB15, and he helped you zero pretty much. It sucks because he still looked good.

You know what I mean? Like Week 1, he was the running back one then he got injured and sucked until the end of the year when he got back from injury and looked good again and then in the playoffs was like oh he's this is a really good player but he did not help you for fantasy completely lost season um the question now is just with this Packers offense looking better and better and Aaron Jones showing quality film, should he be a top fantasy option next year? Top? No. Top 24?

Maybe. Yeah. If he's back in Green Bay. Yeah. And he will be, I think. Boy, did we see kind of a change of expectations in that backfield beyond him. I mean, the depth chart changed over the back part of the year. Yeah, A.J. Dillon will be not on that team.

Yeah, chilling like an unemployed man in the office. Yeah, so Aaron Jones' contract, 17 mil cap, but the dead cap is not great. What's the dead cap? It's the 12.3, but I think there is a way for them to drop it down to 4.6 if it's pre or post June 1st, all those magic things that they do with the cap. All right, that is going to do it for today's show. Thursday is going to be the top 10 wide receiver truth episode. Any NFL news we need to talk about there.

You can find us over on X at the FF ballers. If you want to chat with us, you can also contact us individually on X at FF hit man for Mike at Jason FFL for Jason. I'm at Andy Holloway. The community can be found at joinFHitman. For Mike, at Jason FFL. For Jason, I'm at Andy Holloway. The community can be found at jointhefoot.com. 30,000 strong over there. Great opportunity to get into some dynasty startups and leagues over the course of the offseason.

And a reminder, we're with you twice a week, all offseason long. The UDK is coming. February 11th, Super Bowl Sunday. The preorder begins. The Dynasty Pass access will begin immediately. Very excited about what we're bringing. More features to the Dynasty Pass this year,

more exclusive articles, insights, and that is well on its way. So that is going to do it for today's show. Thank you for joining us. Thank you to the Ducers over there in Deucer's Alley. Two-thirds of them. You know who you are. Goodbye. Goodbye.

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.