Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - The TRUTH: WRs Part 2 + Start Your Engines! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/6

Episode Date: February 6, 2024

What’s the TRUTH about DK Metcalf, Calvin Ridley, and Chris Olave? On today’s fantasy football podcast, a closer look at 2023 performances for wide receivers! Learn the TRUTH behind the fantasy fi...nish, and which players have the chance to take a step forward in 2024! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for February 6th, 2024. Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on Twitter Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,
Starting point is 00:00:19 including a new chance to win cash every minute in the app. Get into the game with Monopoly Double Play at McDonald's. While supplies last, one in five chances to win game piece prizes at outset, chances to win Double Play prizes based on time of code entry, and draw prizes based on number of entries in each draw. See rules in the app. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
Starting point is 00:01:23 Tuesday, February 6th. Heading towards the Super Bowl. Jason Moore, Mike Wright, Andy Holloway. Gentlemen? Yes? How we doing? I was waiting for a start your engines, but okay. What? Like a gentleman?
Starting point is 00:01:40 No, no. Start your engine i understand yeah as i'm aware of the phrase but your your word association for gentlemen when it's said like that in that particular i think it was the tone it was it was the beginning of gentlemen speaking of tone start your engine we just caught um we did a live podcast back in Toronto, Canada. Yeah. Which was, Brooks, do you know what year that was? Probably 19? No, that would have been 18 maybe? 18? Yeah, I think back in 18, 18 earlier.
Starting point is 00:02:13 Yeah. And I pulled this thing up because we were reviewing the places we've been with the podcast. We needed a list of the live event for something. And we see Toronto and then we pull it, and Jason's voice is super high. Well, I was up north. What has happened to your voice? You have a much deeper voice now. Yeah, you should have heard me in Columbia.
Starting point is 00:02:37 Is it the smoking? When I was in South America, I was down here, guys. So this is proximity to the North Pole. That's exactly right. To the equator. Is it exactly right to the equator what is it the deepest at the equator higher to the yeah no like if he went to the south pole oh it would it would be inaudible correct oh register that's so low you can't hear like shack yes shack would be me at the south pole what is it it was aug August of 2017. Wow. No, I just, you know. 2017?
Starting point is 00:03:05 Yeah. Start your engines. That's all I'm saying. That's, yeah. We have a truth episode today, the wide receiver part two episode. We've covered the quarterbacks. We've covered the running backs. All of those episodes, I encourage everybody listening,
Starting point is 00:03:19 if you didn't catch them, go back, give them a listen. You'll find out the reality of a number of the highest draft picks at each of those positions, what the truth was about their consistency, how they performed against good and bad defenses, home road splits. Did they actually help you win a championship? And I think we'll do some more. We'll be sharing a breakdown of the most consistent players at every position as well on social media.
Starting point is 00:03:46 I encourage you to follow us on X at the FFBallers. We're on Instagram. We're on TikTok. Yeah, we are. And we'll be sharing more truth information there. Did you have something to add, Jason? I just found how you said TikTok. I said it like an old man.
Starting point is 00:04:05 Yeah, you did. Yeah. All right. The emphasis on the- On the TikTok. Oh, man. Yeah. That was rough.
Starting point is 00:04:15 I am not as old as you guys. That's just important. Yet. Yet? Yet. That's right. But the truth episode- I don't think ever is.
Starting point is 00:04:26 I could die first, Mike. Wait, is that the path to get me older than you? Yeah. Right? I mean. Wait a minute. Yeah. If you lived to 60 and I lived to 50, you got older than me.
Starting point is 00:04:38 Okay. But your corpse will all. I mean, that still ages, doesn't it? My corpse does not age. But. I start over. Now I'm. But hold on. I'm one day old. But hold on.
Starting point is 00:04:45 Oh, you're one day as a corpse. Yeah. But people always put up the tweets of, you know, so-and-so. It's their birthday. Oh, it's their birthday. They would have been 72. You saying that that doesn't count? I'm saying I would have, but I'm not.
Starting point is 00:05:00 He has a point because- Could have, should have, would have. Right. He has a point because if he's 50 and he dies at 50, right? Yeah. And he's got a 50-year-old corpse. And I lived to 60 and I die. And then my corpse is next to him.
Starting point is 00:05:12 And then somebody goes and digs up those corpses. I'm the older corpse. That's how you get older, is death. It's all so clear. It's all so clear. We have started our engines fellas five days five days until the ultimate draft kit pre-sale super bowl sunday the dynasty pass will be available immediately if you pick up the udk plus very excited about this year um The newer app is going to be available very, very soon ahead of Super Bowl Sunday, so you
Starting point is 00:05:49 can get all primed up and ready to go. But the pre-sale starts this Sunday, UDK time. UltimateDraftKid.com. Head over there. Pick it up. You won't regret it. And what else is going on? We got a quick question, Brooksy?
Starting point is 00:06:05 Oh, yeah. All right. Super Bowl time. Super Bowl time. At Braden Holstead, 1814. See, that's an old guy. Yeah. 1814.
Starting point is 00:06:16 That was a long time ago. Wow. I have my homes in Purdy in a one quarterback dynasty league. Should I trade one of them? Which one? And what should I be trying to get for them so my answer would be probably not um because in a one quarterback dynasty league it's trading a quarterback is very difficult now guys, guys, the higher-end guys, yes, they're in demand, but will you find a perfect match for a team that's willing to overpay or even just pay what you think you should get for someone like Patrick Mahomes?
Starting point is 00:06:59 And it's dynasty, man. This year especially, if you were in a dynasty league and you didn't have a backup option, look around your league at how many teams just got ruined because of quarterback injury this year. They're not just readily
Starting point is 00:07:16 available on the waiver wire. The backup, like Jake Browning was probably on the waiver wire after Joe Burrow got hurt, but even in some dynasty leagues, those guys are rostered as well. Any backup quarterback that you feel somewhat confident in, they're on rosters. So I look at it that the market won't give you the value
Starting point is 00:07:37 that you should get for these players, the impact they can have on a starting roster, and the security of needing two quarterbacks. I usually like to have three, if at all possible. impact they can have on a starting roster and the security of needing two quarterbacks i usually like to have three if at all possible so i'm probably not trading either of these guys do you do you agree with that jay because i would actually i'd be on the other side i would try to trade brock purdy if i were to trade one of them it would certainly be brock purdy i i don't feel like you're trading patrick mahomes near the value that you should get for Patrick Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:08:06 Obviously, his name carries a lot of weight. You could still get something good. But what can you even get for Brock Purdy? Let's say he wins the Super Bowl this Sunday. Yeah. That's probably, you know, you're talking peak value for a young quarterback like that. You could probably move him for a less heralded backup and something. And that would be the place I'd want to be because, you know,
Starting point is 00:08:29 I understand having two quarterbacks is very crucial, but I think you could go get another name. You know, last offseason, you could have traded a lot. Trevor Lawrence looked like the trajectory was really good. The value on Trevor Lawrence now is much lower than it was last year. So I'd be happy to move laterally in what i believe is production at quarterback to backup if i could cash in on brock purdy's peak right but but trading in a one quarterback would you trade it's just the i gotta trade for you okay one sec but okay in a one quarterback who who in
Starting point is 00:09:03 your league doesn't have a starting quarterback who is like – I mean, Brooks. I mean, Brooks is in our dynasty league. He spent the whole year without a quarterback. He has 14 on his roster. Russ was his at the start of the year. I mean, I would be shooting for that team that's been let down by the trust
Starting point is 00:09:19 that was put into Trevor Lawrence or the trust that was put into somebody else and wants the new hotness. And Brock Purdy, you know, he's not going to get a long-term deal after this season because they literally can't do it. So that means he's got to play another full year without a guarantee, which is scary because it's San Francisco. They rotated through people. But, like, here's an example.
Starting point is 00:09:44 Yeah, give me some names. And I'll just throw it out there. You tell me if it's stupid. Would They rotated through people. But here's an example. Yeah, give me some names. I'll just throw it out there. You tell me if it's stupid. Would you trade Brock Purdy away, if he's your two, for Baker Mayfield and a second-round draft pick? I would not. You'd rather have Brock Purdy? I would, yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:01 Okay. Brock Purdy's 24. I think he's going to have a long-term theater. Would you trade Brock Purdy away for Trevor Lawrence? I'm just curious. Oh, yeah. Okay. Brock Purdy's 24. I think he's going to have a long-term. Would you trade Brock Purdy away for Trevor Lawrence? I'm just curious. Oh, that's interesting. That is a fascinating question. Because I would assume, based on this last year, you could do that.
Starting point is 00:10:14 And you could probably get a third-round, second-round pick with Trevor Lawrence. Oh, my gosh. I don't know that you're going to get plus, but I would rather have Trevor Lawrence. So, you know. I don't know, man. That's the way I'd be thinking, though, is maybe Baker's not the name that matters to you. I think your point in who's going to trade for Brock Purdy says that you're not doing a quarterback. It's not going to be for Baker or for Love or for Trevor Lawrence.
Starting point is 00:10:37 It's going to be this is a quarterback-needy team. They're desperate for it. You're finding the team that doesn't have a quarterback. So, really, you're trading Brock Purdy away for a mid-level wide receiver. Would you give up a late first for Brock Purdy in your situation in Dynasty, Brooks? Can I tell you after the Super Bowl?
Starting point is 00:10:53 See, that's what I mean! If he wins the Super Bowl! Yeah, if he wins the Super Bowl, then you're saying you probably would, right? I'd consider it. It's been a tough ride for me. So, yeah, I i mean if i could unload brock for a first which i don't think you could do in most situations but if i could for a first and i've got my homes i would here we are pretending brooks has any picks that's true yeah
Starting point is 00:11:15 but just the the point being like in our 12 person team there's essentially one there's like one trade partner and meaning that no one really has the leverage. And to your point, don't force a trade. Correct. He's going to be of great value to your team because players get injured and you need more than one quarterback. Don't force it. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:11:35 But in my opinion, this might be the moment where if someone is searching for one, you would cash in. Mahomes is the one you want long term. Those things are going to ebb and flow from a good season to a medium season. But Mahomes is who you want. Yeah, I would love to trade Mahomes for another star plus a first. You can do that some years. You're not doing that the year that he's, you know, he was the quarterback eight this year. He'll be you know, the previous three years he was a top five quarterback.
Starting point is 00:12:03 The last year was the quarterback one. Wait for another outstanding season, and then you can get a haul. Then you're trading Mahomes for a really, really good – for Herbert and a one or Burrow and a one or Stroud and a one after Stroud shows that he's worth it, something like that. All right, I'm not going to hit the drop. I'm just going to give you some quick news before we get into the truth. Cliff Kingsbury was hired and then not hired by the Raiders.
Starting point is 00:12:34 He was the leading candidate to get hired by the Raiders. And then he removed his name. Yeah, and he did because Washington called him right before he signed it and said, hey, we're actually going to sign you. And so Cliff Kingsbury is the new offensive coordinator of the Washington Commanders who pick at number two, which has caused the entire earth to begin to question whether they will get Caleb Williams at two now
Starting point is 00:13:00 because Cliff was Caleb Williams' offensive coordinator at USC. I don't really read too much into that. I think Caleb Williams is going number one, but we'll find out. He still could go number one. Yeah, you're right. Oh, man. If the Bears get the Manders to go up to one. It could happen.
Starting point is 00:13:19 Yeah, that seems like not even an unlikely scenario. The Saints have hired Clint Kubiak as their offensive coordinator. Koops, run the ball. The Raiders hired Luke Getze to be their offensive coordinator after being spurned by Cliff Kingsbury. And the Chargers are looking to hire Greg Roman, which I want to talk about this for a second. Okay.
Starting point is 00:13:43 We had the hiring of Jim Harbaugh, and then we went back and looked at how much the 49ers ran the football with Jim Harbaugh. And then you look at what Michigan did, right? They were one of the lowest passing offenses at the college level. Then you look at the hiring of Greg Roman. What does Greg Roman like to do? Run the ball.
Starting point is 00:14:02 Run the football. And then I have seen some interest, some rumors, some rumblings in the bushes. Saquon Barkley to Los Angeles. Ooh. Because to be – you know, we talked about the reason he did that with San Francisco. You know, it's chicken or egg, right? Like you had Frank Gore to hand the ball off to all of those years and a running quarterback
Starting point is 00:14:25 yeah i was gonna say cappernick a quarterback with with uh frank gore it was using your personnel but obviously if you've got a system you want to run you need the person you need personnel so it was the first potential destination for saquon where you'd be like i'm very in on that because it would be heavy usage it'd be an offense that's built to do it and you know most of the time we want these guys going back to where their workhorses I'd prefer Saquon in Los Angeles than I would New York oh for sure because if Saquon goes to Los Angeles that is a replacement of Eckler they're not going to sign Eckler and then add Saquon so now you you have him in a workhorse situation for a much better offense,
Starting point is 00:15:05 much better quarterback. Speaking of the quarterback and Greg Roman coming on board, we don't know what role Greg Roman is going to be hired in, but apparently he's coming on board. But my first thought was the rushing ability of Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert is an athletic quarterback who has not – He comes to Josh Allen athletically yeah exactly athletically he's close to josh allen but he's capped himself at 302 rushing yards in his career and i think
Starting point is 00:15:32 that you could see a lot more utilization of his legs as a strength um and that's exciting for fantasy purposes i got a sidebar over here guys because i, because I wanted to make a Jim Harbaugh khakis joke, but I didn't know if he actually wears pleated khakis because I was going to go hard to pay. Which is important for the joke. Oh, it's important for the joke. That was the crux of the joke. Okay.
Starting point is 00:15:58 So I just searched Jim Harbaugh khakis. There's some evidence of pleats and things like that, but then there's also the people also ask, where does Jim Harbaugh buy his pants? And there's an article that's sourced that he gets his khakis from
Starting point is 00:16:15 Walmart. Why is this on the internet? Why are we putting up articles about where Jim Harbaugh buys his khakis? That's when you know you've made it, man. Good job, Jim. According to our research department, led by Kyle the Borgogin. Oh, this is a big update.
Starting point is 00:16:36 Back in 2016, Jim Harbaugh made the switch from his traditional pleated khakis to Lululemon's men's pants. I was just going to compliment his thriftiness, but if he's a Lululemon man now i was just gonna compliment his thriftiness but if he's a lula lula lemon man now he's the opposite of three yeah he's he is throwing money in the garbage well he's very wealthy um i wonder if that was a conversation like somebody came up to him one day and was like it's time all right let's jump into the truth. You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers.
Starting point is 00:17:08 I want the truth. You can't handle the truth. All right. Wide receivers, part two. Last week on the first episode, we discussed the top 10, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Amon Ross, St. Brown, Puka Nakua, Mike Evans, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, and Devontae Smith. Keenan Allen, Nico Collins, Stephon Diggs.
Starting point is 00:17:36 We classify when we're looking at consistency at this position. We classify them into great games, good games, or bust games. Great games are 20 or more points good games 12 and a half or more bust games fewer than seven and a half so we're going to begin with the raiders because davante adams comes in at number 11 and we can have a brief discussion about jacoby myers as well but ad at 11, drafted as the wide receiver, 8, 31 years old. First half consistency was an abysmal 47. It was rough.
Starting point is 00:18:14 The second half was 13, including a – I want to give him credit for a league-winning week 17 performance. Sure. In fact, number eight, number two, two of the three weeks for the playoff weeks, 175 targets. But as you said, the first half of this year was really, really difficult. 175 targets and he caught 103 of them. Yeah, and he went through different quarterbacks to do it.
Starting point is 00:18:43 Yeah, the first seven weeks were Jimmy Garoppolo. So when you see these splits, you know, Jacoby Myers, much, much better in the first half. He was getting those, you know, short, nice targets from Jimmy Garoppolo. It was better for Devontae Adams when Garoppolo said sayonara. Or he wasn't the one that said it. Well, he may still have said goodbye. That's true. Do you say sayonara when being wasn't the one that said it he's well he may still say goodbye that's true that's true do you say sayonara when being being pushed out of a van is that i don't think i don't usually
Starting point is 00:19:13 scream it i think you scream it look here's what i want to point out though because adams finished at 11 right was drafted as the wide receiver 8 jacoby myers finished at 24 was the wide receiver eight. Jacoby Myers finished at 24, was the wide receiver 58 off the board, almost undrafted. However, in consistency on the year, Jacoby Myers had a consistency rank of 20, whereas Adams was 25. So the fantasy finished, pretty big gap between 11 and 24,
Starting point is 00:19:37 but Myers was more consistent. In fact, like you said, in the first half, number nine, that's crazy. Like if you drafted or picked up Jacoby Myers off the waiver wire and you had the courage to put him out there, it was very beneficial in the first half of the year.
Starting point is 00:19:51 Tailed off in the second half, almost, what, 70 fewer targets? Yeah, Aiden O'Connell did not like throwing it to Jacoby Myers. So, you know, when you look at the year for Devontae Adams, I'm not going to go as far as to say this was a bust year. Drafted a wide receiver eight, finished at 11. But it's close. It was a up and down roller coaster year, and he's one of those players that you were stuck playing
Starting point is 00:20:18 because he's Devontae Adams. So bust is too strong a word for me, but disappointment. That's fair. Is probably where I'd put him. I traded for him partway through the season, expecting the classic Devontae Adams to reappear. Kind of did at times, but quarterback consistency, it was obvious that that was the major issue.
Starting point is 00:20:38 Yeah, I don't see the quarterback consistency changing necessarily going forward. I know that there are some rumors, maybe Russell Wilson goes there, but Russell Wilson is not the answer to the problem here. And for me, Devontae Adams, he's going to be, you know, he's 31 years old now. He is on the downward slope. This was obviously a down year from the year prior. And I think that we have looked over year after year, after year, after year, when you get towards the end, I'm not saying that it's over and it's done. He's toasted. It's all busted, but it doesn't go back up. It doesn't usually go like, I dipped down at 31, but resurged at 32. So to me, I don't see him as someone that I'm going to be investing heavily in next year.
Starting point is 00:21:29 And his name is still so big, it would surprise me if he's outside the top 15 wide receivers. I think the quarterback is going to be so important for Devontae Adams. At the last two years, the targets have been there, enough targets to overcome a terrible catch percentage where the last four years his catch percentage were 78-73 in Green Bay, goes to Las Vegas, 56-59%. I mean, that's the quarterback. And his splits against top half and bottom half defenses,
Starting point is 00:22:06 against top half defenses, he didn't even average nine points a game. It was really beating the crap out of inferior opponents. And to me, that's a signal of that's his quarterback. Like the quarterback wasn't capable of matching up against stronger opponents. So if it's – Aiden O'Connell could get better over the offseason if somehow he is the starter or maybe they go out in free agency. But that will be a huge point in my analysis of whether or not I'm in at the ADP of Devontae.
Starting point is 00:22:39 I wanted to look at this because just anecdotally, when Pierce took over as the head coach, it felt like it was better for Adams. And he took over. He started. He coached week nine. Okay. Is that right, Kyle? So from that point on, his pace was 183 targets, 100 receptions,
Starting point is 00:23:04 1,100 yards, and nine touchdowns. Yeah, he got four. But the consistency rank was very good. He had double-digit targets in five games in that span. You know, to that, at least with the head coach coming back in Pierce, maybe you can get one high-target year out of Adams again, regardless of the quarterback. But to your point, Jason, is he going to be a top 15 pick?
Starting point is 00:23:27 Are you taking an older Mike Evans with Baker? Are you taking Devontae Adams with insert blank quarterback here? That'll be, I think, a tough call for people. I kind of lean Evans. Yeah, Evans obviously had the better year this year, and because of the history of Devontae Adams, I would expect Devontae Adams to be drafted over Evans next year. All right.
Starting point is 00:23:52 We will take a quick break and come back with another pair of receivers that finished very close on the same team. Well, let's talk about him number 12 this is um you know believe it or not we don't sit around like staring at the fantasy finish of all the players so occasionally on these Truth episodes, we get... I mean, Jason, you probably knew that Debo was sitting here at 12, but I'm a little surprised. I am too.
Starting point is 00:24:34 Debo's at 12. Ayuk is 14. So we'll talk about both of them here. But Debo had 20... They both had about the same percentage of great games. 21% for Debo, 20% for Ayuk. 57% good, 60% for Ayuk. 21%
Starting point is 00:24:49 bust for Debo, only 13% for Ayuk. So consistency-wise, no surprise. Ayuk was two spots better. He was number six. Debo was number eight. They were both great. The TLDR there is like, if you drafted either player, you were thrilled. You got a value. Right? Late third for Debo, super value Like, if you drafted either player, you were thrilled. You got a value, right?
Starting point is 00:25:05 Late third for Debo, super value for Ayuk in the sixth. Yeah, Ayuk was definitely the better pick. If you experienced Debo, got off to a hot start, had a bad stretch, then got injured. So you had a really hard time with him in the middle of the year. When he came back, he was on fire. So hopefully you held the course and just waited for him to get back after the bye week. But both these guys were great.
Starting point is 00:25:28 There's a reason they're in the Super Bowl. Brock Purdy was able to do enough. The offensive system is good, and both players are so talented. I've never seen someone catch all of his deep targets like Brandon Ayuk does. If there's a target down the field, I feel like he's coming down with it. Going forward, I don't know how you doubt either one of these guys. The continuity is going to be there with pretty much the same offensive group next season, and they've proven that they are super talented individuals and they are in an offensive system that knows how to you know
Starting point is 00:26:06 maximize them to me the the biggest challenge with i don't know letting brandon i graduate to a different place in our fantasy vision is the quant you know the 75 catch number right where you know the target totals are not, and maybe you believe they could change, but I don't think in this system they will. Like, I think this is kind of the best kind of year you're going to get from Brandon Ayuk. He's actually one of the players that you know, we joke about Tyreek
Starting point is 00:26:36 Hill, how every time he catches the football he's super open. To me, the second player that comes to mind with that is the way they scheme Brandon Ayuk. These play actions, you see Purdy roll to the right, and then you look downfield, and Ayuk is open by 15 yards sometimes. Going across the middle of the field,
Starting point is 00:27:00 I don't think 100 receptions is in the future for Brandon Ayuk in this system in San Francisco. I think you accept a big play guy that's in the 70 to 80 range, but that might make him a little more touchdown dependent year to year. Yeah, you have two years now of Brandon Ayuk being great. One fewer game this year than 2022, so the targets went down slightly from 114 to 105. Again, one extra game would have had that really, really close. The reception, 78 or 75.
Starting point is 00:27:30 Oh, interesting. But the yardage, 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022, 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns this past year. So the big play was working. What was the catch percentage year to year? Was it the same? You had 68% in 22 and 71 this past year. I mean, he's a star.
Starting point is 00:27:53 Yeah, he is. But that's the question coming into this year was, was the breakout for real? I think that's answered. Now the question will become with near, like, really, really similar peripherals of your targets and your catches and your catch percentage, but over 300 yards extra off of those opportunities, that's where you have to take a step back and go,
Starting point is 00:28:22 is this, will he end up getting overdrafted because of this? Could there really actually be a next step? Or is this, or does the fantasy community say, no, Brandon Ayuk is a high-level wide receiver too? Let's say Debo's drafted a round and a half ahead of Brandon Ayuk. I'll take the last 49er drafted of this pair. I think I would still be on the Debo side.
Starting point is 00:28:50 Would you? Yeah, I worry a little bit on the injury risk, but the consistency, the fact that they manufacture touches for him and you don't have to worry about a big play coming through because to have 17.9 yards per catch and be over 70% catch rate, which is what Ayuk did, it shows two things. It shows two things. One, it shows he's really, really good.
Starting point is 00:29:11 I don't want to take anything away from him, but also, that's just impossible. Like, you can't do that year after year. That's a wild stat. So you would, if they're that close, I mean, this year there's a big gap. Two and a half rounds. If it's a round... If it's a round difference, I think I still prefer Debo with his rushing attempts.
Starting point is 00:29:34 It's one of those things where when they get up in a game, you're still going to hand the ball off to Debo. And yet, two spots better in consistency. It's surprising. I wondered if we had the consistency rank from last year for these two. Do you know it? I think I can look that up.
Starting point is 00:29:50 We have it. Debo 23, IUK 30. Wow, they both took such a big step up. Is that true, Brooks? Yes, sir. Wow. Were they both banged up last year? I guess it wouldn't have even mattered.
Starting point is 00:30:02 Yeah. Hmm. But strong second half. All right. At 13, Jamar Chase. I think a lot of people were... Sad. That's a word.
Starting point is 00:30:12 Yep. I think a lot of people were... Distraught. Mm-hmm. Depressed. I think a lot of people were... Upset. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:30:18 Oh, man. I was looking for something bigger. Yeah. You were really... You were on a roll. I couldn't wait for the run. Here's the thing. Catatonic. I tuned out. I thought the for something bigger. Yeah, you were on a roll. I couldn't wait for the run. Here's the thing. Catatonic.
Starting point is 00:30:25 I tuned out. I thought the bit was over. You were in the bit. You were part of the bit. You were half of the bit. I was getting ready for analysis. Jokey joke time was done. This is a bad year.
Starting point is 00:30:38 He was drafted in the top three. The top of the top. Look, I actually just caught some discussions we had before the season. Someone had shared part of, we went on the Green Light Show with Chris Long.
Starting point is 00:30:56 Yep. And great podcast. And we went on there and we were talking about the consensus in the first round and then when people were starting to depart from it. And the beginning, the first four picks, it was CMC, Jefferson, Chase, and Eckler in some order, generally.
Starting point is 00:31:15 Maybe Tyreek Hill was mixed in there. But Chase was drafted to be a bona fide guarantee for your roster. Just plain and simple, he wasn't. One-third great, one-third good, one-third bust. Consistency of 23 got worse in the second half. Joe Burrow went away. Burrow was much worse in the second half. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:38 No fantasy points. So, you know, Jamar Chase, I think there will be some people that are very, like they're biting their nails when they have to draft Jamar Chase next year. I don't know if they'll be us. They won't be me. That's for darn sure. But it's hard when you go through a year like this where he was on the field and didn't produce. That's what I think is hard for people. Now, we know that when Joe Burrow is back behind center, it's going to transform the output.
Starting point is 00:32:10 So I'll be in on Jamar Chase, but it's a matter of, like, perception. Yeah, I mean, you've got – Like, Tyreek's going to go ahead of him, right? You've got Burrow. Yeah, Tyreek probably should go ahead of him. Burrow essentially stopped playing in Week 12. From Week 12 on, Jamar Chase would have had a 17-game pace of 80 receptions for 1,000 yards and two touchdowns. I mean, if you've got a backup
Starting point is 00:32:34 quarterback throwing you the ball, it's going to be a massive problem. I don't think that we saw anything from Jamar Chase to make me believe that he isn't the awesome dude, incredible wide receiver that he's been since he's been in the NFL and prior. This was the very beginning of the season. You had to hurt Burrow. Joe Burrow was basically a backup quarterback for the first month. His first good game was week five against Arizona. And to highlight that, Joe Burrow, three of his first four games, did not hit nine fantasy points as a quarterback.
Starting point is 00:33:11 So, and we're blaming the calf. Yeah, I am. So the fact that it happened, though, I can't imagine. Jefferson will go above him, right? Yes, for sure. Tyreek will go above him. I think so. CeeDee Lamb will go above him. think so cd lamb will go above him yes
Starting point is 00:33:25 amon ross st brown i don't think so you think that's the line no i think right after right after those guys number four will be jamar chase okay so yeah kind of a lost year for jamar chase we know the talent uh we know what he's capable of and it was just boom bust this year with the quarterback situation he's always one play away and was just boom-bust this year with the quarterback situation. He's always one play away from winning you a week. You're presumably going to have T. Higgins gone. So going into next year, when you're saying he is going to be able to be, you know, the alpha and the omega there at the wide receiver.
Starting point is 00:34:03 Will it hurt him not to have somebody on the other side? Because it feels like it could be difficult. I mean, it just depends on if you really believe Jamar Chase is in that level of CeeDee Lamb, of Justin Jefferson. I think he is, but you still need a quarterback that can get you the ball. If Dak Prescott went down this year, CeeDee Lamb yeah not have had a great breakout season and it just Jamar Chase he it's his highs are so high like it's a when Jamar Chase hits it's a week that it's three touchdowns is like you could have benched the rest of your team yeah and maybe still won like Ty Tyreek. Yeah, but his whole career has still had inconsistent,
Starting point is 00:34:48 like not just a game on, game off, like a few games in a row where you're like, where the heck is Jamar Chase? And then he comes back and gives you a week-winning performance. So those other names that we rattled off. Well, that's where Amon Ra is so different. Yes, yeah, but the highs of Amon Ra is so different. Yes. But the highs of Amon Ra are not what Jamar can give you. Yeah, they manufactured
Starting point is 00:35:09 targets for Jamar with the backups because 24.8% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage. Oh, man. The one week with Browning where it was just like nonstop but it was all screens. This is not winning football. Alright, let's change
Starting point is 00:35:25 gears here oh i hit it but no let's change gears here you don't have a drop over there same one i figured it worked sorry would you mind doing this one on your own what oh just yeah just with your mouth i've never done this one. We built this city. Thank you. Oh. That was your backup. Thank you. You're welcome.
Starting point is 00:35:49 It does not have the impact. Michael Pittman at 15 was drafted as the wide receiver. Oh. 35. 35. Michael Pittman was my most reluctant pick in our League of Record draft. When we did it, it was like me and Kyle and Damon were like, you know, should we do this?
Starting point is 00:36:15 Yeah, I guess so. And it was kind of sheepishly, we'll take Michael Pittman. Here's, because this is my only responsibility on this show, I think we got really lucky with Michael Pittman here's because this is my only responsibility on this show I think we got really lucky with Michael Pittman this year me maybe because this is one of the best value draft picks you could have made
Starting point is 00:36:35 wide receiver 35 turns into wide receiver 15 his consistency rank was 15 I mean this is one of the best wide receiver 2's you could have 6% great games but but 44% good, only 19% bust, and had a plethora of targets. 156 targets, 109 receptions, 1,100 yards, just four touchdowns. I think we got lucky with Michael Pittman because we were given Gardner Minshew so soon this season.
Starting point is 00:37:03 Because the reason he was a seventh-round pick, a late seventh-round pick, was in part because we knew we had a significant doubt around volume. It wasn't talent. It wasn't the ability that he could put up a season like this. It was just, will they give him a chance to? And we didn't know what Shane Steichen would do in his first opportunity.
Starting point is 00:37:21 Steichen and Minshew outk the expectations yeah yeah they did one thing though that I I think Steichen brought to the Colts that gives me confidence with Anthony Richardson was the pace of play he played really really fast and we saw this through Anthony Richardson too it wasn't just Gardner Minshew now we only have two games yep where Anthony Richardson played the full game and in those two examples you got week one where Michael Pittman was awesome 19.7 fantasy points and half PPR scoring he was the wide receiver seven and then in week five when he was the wide receiver 37 only scored seven fantasy points so i don't think it's a um well it's actually week four oh yeah week four against the rams where even worse yeah it was he was one catch wide receiver 72 against the ram so you have wide receiver seven wide receiver 72
Starting point is 00:38:16 so that's where i think you're you're probably right andy of we got lucky that – in fantasy terms that Gardner Minshew is a traditional pocket passer. So it's – but he was just – he ended up being so incredibly safe. You know, his splits against top and bottom defense is essentially the same. His home road splits, maybe a point differential between those two so where the turning it to the confidence of two games with Anthony Richardson one incredible one terrible what is Michael Pittman going to end up overdrafted I don't I don't I don't think he's going to be overdrafted but I think he'll be drafted around his ceiling, but his floor is high to me because this is
Starting point is 00:39:08 a situation where he is the primary focal point in the receiving room. I don't expect the Colts to change or do anything. They've got to pay him money. Exactly. I think they will. Assuming that he does resign, which is how most people are viewing this situation,
Starting point is 00:39:24 the Colts just have to. They don't have another wide receiver, man. If they let Pittman go, who are they throwing the ball to? Well, let me just paint the picture of a situation where they don't pay him. Okay. They obviously, who was the rookie last year's name? Josh Downs. I almost said Josh Dobbs.
Starting point is 00:39:44 Yeah, Josh Downs. So they drafted Josh Dobbs. Yeah, Josh Downs. So they drafted Josh Downs last year. They have a laundry list of tight ends in that room. They have a quarterback coming back that maybe your offense is more predicated on. They didn't have Jonathan Taylor for a big part of this year, too. So let's keep that in mind with the volume for Michael Pittman. If you come in here and you say, hey, I've got Josh Downs. I've got these tight ends.
Starting point is 00:40:02 I've got Anthony Richardson. And I'm going to draft one of these electric wide receivers and not pay Michael Pittman because somebody wants to offer him a big old check, that would be their pathway forward. And I don't think that that's a non-viable path for the Colts personally. I think Pittman is excruciatingly consistent, but I also think that you probably have enough with somebody else. But I don't know that they're necessarily going to bring him back. Sure. I think if they don't bring him back, the entire conversation next year is,
Starting point is 00:40:35 why didn't they give Anthony Richardson weapons? This is what we do with every quarterback is that you have to equip him. I also think that there's more touchdown upside with Anthony Richardson than with Gardner I mean you you play with Gardner a whole season you had three touchdowns with them you played two games with Anthony Richardson you you got a touchdown in week one the offense is better with Anthony Richardson and and while he lost the season from a on the field play he's still going to go into his second year he was still there involved he's going to be better next year than he was as a rookie.
Starting point is 00:41:06 I think I'm very bullish on Anthony Richardson's year two breakout, not just as a rusher, though. Agreed. Part of that is sweet Shane Steichen's pace of play over there in Indianapolis. Michael Pittman, just four touchdowns. So if he had scored, you know, you give him
Starting point is 00:41:23 seven, six or seven touchdowns, he would have been a top 12 wide receiver. Yep. And so a hugely successful draft pick in the seventh round and hugely consistent week to week in the top 15 there. All right. DK Metcalf. Oh, man.
Starting point is 00:41:43 Somehow finished the year at 16. Doesn't feel that way at all. In some ways, I feel like DK Metcalf was but a just like a mist, a ghost. A memory. I remember him because he
Starting point is 00:41:58 single-handedly destroyed me in week 13 on Papa Josh's team where he scored three touchdowns against Dallas when nobody played him. Now he's drafted as the wide receiver 16 and finished at 16. But his consistency was 21. First half, 38. Second half, 18.
Starting point is 00:42:17 Geno Smith-Pumpkin this year, 66 total receptions for DK Metcalf. 1,114 yards on those receptions, eight touchdowns, but the reception totals, they were not there. Only 6% great games. I mean, I don't know how to feel about this season. We watched it and we knew, like, Lockett didn't have a great year. Right. You know, Jackson Smith and J Lockett didn't have a great year. Right. You know, Jackson Smith and Jigba didn't have a great year.
Starting point is 00:42:50 Metcalf didn't have a great year. So the passing game took a step back. And now you do have a brand new head coach and a new identity there in Seattle. But is Geno Smith? We're going to find out within, I think, 11 days of this recording whether Geno Smith's even there next year.
Starting point is 00:43:08 Right. Because they have to guarantee his money. And there's a new coaching staff in place. This wasn't Geno's guy who was there for the comeback player of the year two years ago, so it'll be really, really interesting. I think we all know the talent of DK Metcalf. We're not questioning whether he's a good wide receiver, ago so it'll it'll be really really interesting i think we all know the talent of dk metcalf we're not questioning whether he's a good wide receiver even though he had such a bad first half of the
Starting point is 00:43:29 season but he doesn't seem like he is wide quarterback proof yeah it's crazy because i think dk metcalf is a dominant right wide receiver genuinely like i think he's a top you know five six guy in terms terms of actual talent on the field. But you're right. Now we know that a quarterback can ruin his top 12 potential. We've kind of talked about it a little bit when we gave our overviews of how numbers are going down for offenses because defenses are now going into the cover too, going into far more zone defense, intentionally trying to stop the big play from
Starting point is 00:44:15 happening. And DK Metcalf, as you would expect because he's so big and physical, he dominates man coverage. He had a 2.42 yards per route run and a 32, almost a 33% target per route run. That's an outstanding number. Like those are, that is an elite wide receiver for fantasy football. Against zone, the targets per route run drops down to 16.5% where some, and it's, you know, the 49ers are kind of a, like they have both of those where one of them can destroy zone, one of them can destroy man, where if the NFL is shifting, like and they keep shifting more and more to primarily zone defense,
Starting point is 00:45:00 it will be interesting to see if we ever. Which is where JSN would have a lot of success. Yeah, but I'm saying like do as as the nfl is turning to this do we actually get another truly dominant season for dk metcalf or is this now what to expect did did you read the the zone increase over the last four years i have you can go bring it back so Yeah, so in 2020, the NFL played zone 64% of the time. Then it was 67% of the time the next year, 68% this last year, 71% of the time in zone. Defense is changing. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:45:34 Yeah, and by extension, you have a reduction in production on the offensive side in general, not just man beaters. But I don't think Metcalf is going to be on a short list for me next year i'll just throw that out there like question marks at court uh quarterback head coach jsn's development i think lockett's under contract for another year right yes and then you have like you take week 13 out which was that monster three touchdown week, he's outside the top 20 in finish. He's not a PPR savior. I think he's a player that might slip quite a bit next year.
Starting point is 00:46:13 We saw how far down Mike Evans was this past offseason. I would not be shocked if DK Metcalf had a pretty big slip in terms of where he's drafted. He went 312 last year. I bet he goes just slightly behind that. I think he'll go a little lower, but not too much. Him getting out of the fourth
Starting point is 00:46:31 round seems like the public wouldn't let that happen. You don't think there might be some JSN? There will be, but I'm saying when you get just the mob seeing DK Metcalf's name and what he has done, and look at the physical specimen that he is.
Starting point is 00:46:49 Don't quote the mob, Mike. Stay away from the mob, the sheep. It is ironic. You brought it up, but the truth about DK Metcalf is he did not really help you this year. That is 100% true. You drafted him at 16, he finished at at 16 and he didn't really help to just help hurt me one week um all right quick break back with another controversial name uh okay so DK Metcalf is going wide share 13 in basketball. He's a good basketball player, though.
Starting point is 00:47:25 Yeah, that's fair. I think in that format, he's one of those players that I think that distorts quite a bit. Because I would love DK Metcalf in basketball. Yes. And guess what? He'll only help me there. You know what I mean? Yeah, you brought up the fact that against Dallas, many, many, many people did not start DK Metcalf.
Starting point is 00:47:42 Yep. 100% of all basketball players started him that week. Yeah. Calvin Ridley at 17, guys, and this is one of the dumbest seasons I've ever seen. That's the best word I can use to describe it. Call it a Sammy Watkins. I mean, oh, my gosh. Yeah, that's what this was.
Starting point is 00:48:02 That's what it was. Calvin Ridley is Sammy Watkins. He was drafted at Wider Series 17. He finished at 17. His consistency on the year was 39th, guys. Gotcha. He just ruined people. 53% bus games.
Starting point is 00:48:22 Yeah, the Lizard Prince. He is the Liz prince calvin ridley what in the world you started the year and everyone i mean it was the quickest put the crown on the head yeah um you are back to what you were uh congratulations you are the prince the lizard prince the drumbeat from the offseason. Every beat reporter was talking about how Calvin Ridley is the best wide receiver they've ever seen in Jacksonville. He's dominating camp.
Starting point is 00:48:54 You come out and you start the season. And it wasn't even the first game. Sure, the first game he had 20 fantasy points. He was the wide receiver six. He was the first half. Yeah, it was. It was just the NFL season opened its big red curtains and it was like
Starting point is 00:49:08 the Calvin Ridley show and we got duped. We got had. It was not a good fun experience. The splits, Mike. Go ahead and share. The splits for Calvin Ridley versus a
Starting point is 00:49:23 top 16 defense versus a bottom 16 defense bottom 16 averaged over 15 points a game that was against nine opponents 15 points top half opponents eight games under seven fantasy points per game justed. There are some quotes. Some talk of Jacksonville being disappointed and frustrated with the play of Calvin Ridley last year. And Calvin Ridley is a free agent. They said he was underweight, didn't supply yards after
Starting point is 00:49:55 the catch. Plethora of missed assignments. The Jaguars want a quote big outside wide receiver for Trevor Lawrence, and that position is a priority on day one or day two of the draft. So, I mean, Trent Baalke did say he loves Calvin Ridley, but, I mean, you say things.
Starting point is 00:50:19 I don't think – I think he's going to be somewhere else. And I don't know what that salary will equate to because the inconsistent play makes you wonder if you can depend on him as a one, and he's going to want to be paid as a one. So he seems like the prime candidate to end up on a bad franchise as the best option. So that'll be a very interesting topic. I mean, the story of Calvin Ridley's year was, you know, did you –
Starting point is 00:50:50 could you roll snake eyes? I mean, cast the dice. Can you? Yeah. Can you? Yeah, can you? But, I mean, you know, 53% bust rate, brutal, absolutely brutal. Amari Cooper comes in at 18.
Starting point is 00:51:06 Yeah, you thought it was rough playing DK Metcalf, who busted 19% of his games. Calvin Ridley was at 53. Yeah, I think we've got back-to-back receivers where you're like, eh, they didn't help you. They didn't help your team. Mm-mm. I remember Al Borland after week one was like, oh, baby.
Starting point is 00:51:25 And then, well, Ridley didn't get him there. Yeah, if you had Ridley, you were so hooked from that first taste of smack in week one that you were addicted and on the streets the rest of the year. He was in your lineup. Wait, wait. Wait, what was that, Jason? I'm just saying. Oh, we all heard it.
Starting point is 00:51:44 Yeah. Okay. you got a taste yeah you got it you got hooked and then and then you didn't know how to bend you didn't know how to bench him okay because you tasted it all right and it ruined that smack um hey kids that's golden smack hey kids um number 18 was Amari. Stay off drugs. Yeah, there it is. Don't do drugs. That's where I was waiting.
Starting point is 00:52:09 All right. Don't draft Calvin Ridley. Amari Cooper comes in at what number here? 18? I don't know. Yes, 18. It's two weeks. Nothing matters except for two weeks for Amari Cooper.
Starting point is 00:52:27 I think you're right. I mean, I think you couldn't have had Amari. At least for the story. Week 16, Amari Cooper, playoffs week one was everything. You went through, what was it, four quarterbacks this year in Cleveland. I think from watching football throughout the entire year, I think we would all agree Amari Cooper is still a great wide receiver. Yes.
Starting point is 00:52:51 His body control around the sidelines and his deep play ability to come down with the catch was on display the very few times that his quarterbacks allowed him to. Still had 20% great games despite four quarterbacks. 47% good games. That's awesome. A 40% bust was a big problem. You didn't know what
Starting point is 00:53:11 one quarterback was going to prefer versus the other. It got real good with Joe Flacco at the end. He was better against bad defenses. Here we are. We're going to be back with Watson next year and he's going to be almost 30 years old. Yeah. This last season we went into the year not knowing what Watson was and some people
Starting point is 00:53:31 were doubters and some people were believers. And then your Amari Cooper position was kind of based upon that. But there's a difference this year because last year I don't think we were sure Amari Cooper still had it. Yeah, because he got traded away for nothing. Exactly. The Cowboys kind of said, we don't want you. We don't think you are worth the money. And then what he proved to me this last year was Amari Cooper
Starting point is 00:53:58 absolutely still has it. He looked like a dominant wide receiver. He just didn't have good quarterback play. Now, will he have poor quarterback play again next year with Baltimore? Yeah. Yeah, he will. In my opinion, he will have poor quarterback play again. Yeah, it's tough.
Starting point is 00:54:17 I mean, he was kind of the cursory case last year when he went to Cleveland of the opposite of what the Hopkins situation was where he switched teams and then delivered great value for fantasy whereas Hopkins switched teams and this year that wasn't the case uh younger more talented than where Hopkins was with the switch but you know if you look at the splits with and without Deshaun Watson over the last two years was better without him more targets more receptions yeah more touchdown higher touchdown pace higher yardage it's not drastic but it the numbers are better without him no if you look at the Watson I think this would be interesting for people the Watson only numbers is that that's a pace of 72 receptions for 1200 yards and six
Starting point is 00:55:06 touchdowns and that is a very valuable fantasy football season yes and so if for some reason you want to believe that Watson will improve maybe you get a little bit more out of Amari Cooper than you expected I don't I mean he went as the wide receiver 19 in the fourth round I'd be shocked if he went higher than that this next year. He's probably going to be pretty close. He'll probably be right around there and I'll draft him there. Well, let's have a tough discussion here.
Starting point is 00:55:34 Chris Olave of the New Orleans Saints, just 23 years old. He was drafted as the wide receiver 12 in the top of the third round, but finished at 19. Had a consistency rank of 11 so when you factor in you know everything that he went through this year 11 is pretty nice 10th in the second half 18th in the first half zero percent great games 56 good games 19 bust It was mostly worthwhile to play Chris Olave.
Starting point is 00:56:06 It just wasn't what you hoped for. Yeah, I mean, you didn't get the giant explosive games. There was no level up. He obviously is a very good wide receiver. He established himself this year as the definite one for this offense. There was a disconnect with him in Carter. You saw it game after game after game, and you kept waiting for it to get fixed. Now, it got better. Like you just said, he was the second half consistency rank of 10, and obviously Carr had some injuries along the way, but
Starting point is 00:56:33 I think with another season, another offseason, Michael Thomas, I have to believe that experiment is now dead. He's what he is. But at the beginning of the year, it was like Michael Thomas was Derek Carr's guy. I think at the beginning of this next season, it will be Chris Olave. He looked very, very good. It's just a matter of he didn't have big explosive games that helped you win any weeks. And that's probably because of Derek Carr. Clint Kubiak will take over at offensive coordinator, right, in New Orleans?
Starting point is 00:57:07 Mm-hmm. Coming over from Minnesota, right, where he – wasn't he calling – he was calling plays for Minnesota last year? He definitely was there after Papa Kub's. I just want to make sure I don't – I want to make sure I don't have that wrong. So – He was there in 21. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:57:26 So I was 21. All right. So Denver's passing game coordinator last year. So he's a couple years from – and he's taken over as OC, right? So Denver's past game coordinator in 22, San Francisco in 23. The last time he was an offensive coordinator was in 21 with Minnesota. Yep. There we go.
Starting point is 00:57:43 So it'll be interesting to see what implications there are. Derek Carr looks like he's going to be the car they're stuck with. Yeah. Yeah. What kind of car is that? Is that an old reliable? Does it get you from point A to point B? It's not the worst.
Starting point is 00:58:00 Do you have to change the oil more than every 3,000 miles? I think it's more about the financing problem. Yeah. It's a lease. Yeah, you're upside down. Yeah, it's not going to pay off, and now they've got- You want a new car, but you're just upside down. Yeah, so you've got a couple more years of Derek Carr.
Starting point is 00:58:19 The latest rumor- Before you can get a new model. Is he's going to restructure in a way that he would be forcibly there for two more seasons. Will force himself there? Is that the same? I don't know who's being forced, but there is a hostage somewhere. Chris Olave, will you be in next year?
Starting point is 00:58:36 He's a wide receiver 12 in this past draft. I will be. I imagine he'll be drafted at 12-13 again. He'll be in a similar spot since 2010. He is one of only 21 wide receivers with 2,000 or more receiving yards in their first two years. He is a good player, but only DeAndre Hopkins and Garrett Wilson
Starting point is 00:59:00 had fewer receiving touchdowns in that time since or other than Olave yeah to me he only had five touchdowns so that was a big part of the story missing deep on these wide receiver twos we're talking about today and even last episode we're talking about guys on the way down like a Stephon Diggs a Devontae Adams versus someone like Chris Olave who has yet to necessarily break out obviously Chris Olave had a worse total fantasy season than those other two guys. But next season, I would definitely take Chris Olave over the elder statesman.
Starting point is 00:59:33 Let me move on and give you just some other important names as we close out the wide receiver episode. Jefferson finished at 29, Addison at 21. But Jefferson, the truth of Jefferson was that consistency rank. He was number four four had the major injury cost people a bunch of their season during that stretch we got to see a lot of Jordan Addison in the first half with Kirk Cousins it was a really terrible second half for Jordan Addison but I think that there are tons of question marks in people's minds around Addison not Jefferson we
Starting point is 01:00:01 all know Jefferson deserves to be picked very highly, and he will be great. But Addison will be interesting because, you know, does Kirk Cousins come back? What is the impact of Justin Jefferson being healthy over the course of the year due to Jordan Addison where, you know, we know how explosive he can be, but dips from, you know, number 70 consistency to 45 in the second half. She had a different quarterback. I just feel like it's going to be a big, swirling mess
Starting point is 01:00:29 for where Addison will go in drafts, knowing that you're drafting a two for his own team. The quarterback's going to be humongous here. Obviously, the second half of the year, you look after the bye week. Week 13 was their bye. They had the late one. And then at that point, you had Justin Jefferson back and Jordan Addison there, but bad quarterback play. They were shuffling quarterbacks every week. Those two guys each had two really good games and mostly awful, horrendous games
Starting point is 01:00:57 with those quarterbacks. I just, you know, it's kind of like the Jamar Chase thing. I don't blame a wide receiver for not having a quarterback that can get you the ball reliably. Jordan Addison was really, really good in the beginning of the year, and if Kirk Cousins is there, I'll be back in on Addison again. What does back in mean, though? Top 24? Top 36? No, I think he'll be a wide receiver, too. Yeah, a low-end wide receiver, too. All right, and then let's talk about Garrett Wilson in the uh when you talk about quarterbacks to let you down um this was not what we wanted he was a wide receiver 10 finished at 32 consistency of 34 played the whole year
Starting point is 01:01:37 um consistency in the first half was 24 second half 38 busted 38 percent of the time good 38 percent of the time no great games no aaron rogers um this was there's just no way to spin this other the best thing you can do for the garet wilson story is just you believe in the player and the talent but now you're gonna have to believe in a one year older off of a an achilles Aaron Rodgers. And I think it'd be naive to not acknowledge the fact that Rodgers playing the whole year is probably longer odds. Not because he's going to re-injure his Achilles, but because he's been banged up and he's old. And he's behind a sieve.
Starting point is 01:02:22 Of an offensive line. So, I mean, this was a terrible, this was a full-on bust pick. It might not have been your fault. You can go hang the blame on Aaron or the Jets because I'd do both. The Jets could have got somebody competent over the next, what, he went out in the first play of the first game almost. So, you had, what, 17.9 weeks to fix the problem, and you didn't? But this was a really, really disappointing year for Garrett Wilson,
Starting point is 01:02:52 for fantasy players. Yeah. The words of solace or some optimism here would be to remind people of DeAndre Hopkins, who highly drafted target or NFL prospect was sought after. And the first few years in Houston were, they were just okay-ish. He was 52, 800 yards and two as a rookie, 76, 1200 yards and six touchdowns as a sophomore which garrett wilson as a sophomore uh trying to find that it was 95 for 1042 and three and then year three he finally got some good quarterback playing he was 111 1500 yards and 11 touchdowns i'm not i'm not saying that's gonna happen i don't love that comparison because it was the Andre Johnson effect in those first two years for Hopkins
Starting point is 01:03:46 that made the biggest impact to me. Yeah, he was the two. He was the two where Wilson's the one. Because you could go back and you could say the same thing about Devontae Adams. I mean, Adams had his first two years were not good. Yeah, but he was also in the shadow of Cobb and Nelson.
Starting point is 01:04:03 Look, I don't think any of us are writing Garrett Wilson off. Goodness gracious. He's, he's one of the most talented players in the game. Like, like you could make an argument to me. I'd,
Starting point is 01:04:10 I'd just take the lowest of Wilson and Olave. If I want to shoot for a 23 year old wide receiver, just let me take the one that drops the lowest in the draft and, and shoot your shot on, on an evolution and a, an Ascension. I'm just a little bit afraid of like we know how quickly it went bad in new york and i'm afraid it might go bad in new york again real quick sure now we know where
Starting point is 01:04:34 the floor is jets fans will tell you it usually does i mean that's just like is your aaron rogers confidence production wise very high no my i even if he healthy? I was a little sad to not be able to find out, because I didn't think Aaron Rodgers still had it. I thought his last year in Green Bay was the beginning of the end. He wasn't that good in Green Bay. He didn't get the Packers in a very weak NFC, a very weak division to the playoffs. He didn't support his wide receivers and then he changed
Starting point is 01:05:06 teams and I I didn't think he was getting better on a new team at an older age so um no I think even if he plays he is not the Aaron Rodgers of old maybe I'm wrong um I hope for Garrett Wilson's sake I am but that was my belief going into last season and we just didn't get to see it give me uh so so we got the numbers of the truth for Garrett Wilson we're we're hoping That was my belief going into last season, and we just didn't get to see it. So we got the numbers and the truth for Garrett Wilson. We're hoping anything better on offensive line and quarterback play will mean. He still caught 95 passes, right? He was the clear go-to receiver.
Starting point is 01:05:39 They were just so bad. He's probably the go-to again. He had 168 targets. It's hard to finish down at wide receiver 32 when you get 168 targets. It's hard to finish down at wide receiver 32 when you get 168 targets. Was I throwing the ball? Jalen Waddell came in at 34. He was drafted as the wide receiver
Starting point is 01:05:56 11. You might say, okay, he missed some time. How did he do consistency-wise? He was 28th. 14% great, 29% good, 21% bust is this is a bust season well so he was better than this on a points per game basis he was basically about the wide receiver 22 on points per game he missed three games uh ended the season injured but when you take out the injured games you just look about how is his consistency we
Starting point is 01:06:25 have 47 career games and we've done this truth episode each year and basically he's very consistently the same which is he's got you know around 15 great games just incredible games he's got a third of his games that are outright busts and then a third that are good. He's not a hyper consistent player. Now this would be more of one of those, like, can he do the Hopkins thing? Can he do the Julio Jones thing where a couple of years into your career when the predecessor who was the superstar wide receiver you know when Andre Johnson or Roddy White say okay now I'm gone can you step up and be that super consistent one I still believe that for Jalen Waddle his talent shows out but while he is the two he's not a consistent player
Starting point is 01:07:18 and I don't I don't think he will be next year or the next year until Tyreek is gone. Yeah, this was, you did. You wanted to see his ability to take over a game and 1A, 1B, but it's not. It's 1A, 2. Yeah. I believe that's called 1, 2. I don't know. You don't need the A there. It felt like calling Tyreek just a 1 was insulting.
Starting point is 01:07:47 I think 1A is way worse. No, 1A is like. But if you don't have a B, is it worse? I feel like I was. Oh, what if it was A1? A1 steak sauce? Yeah, that's how steaks are done. Wait, you know the jingle?
Starting point is 01:08:01 I don't know. Look, Iwata was the seventh wide receiver last year. Yes. Number seven. He caught three fewer passes than last year, but he did the inverse of the Brandon Ayuk. He went from 1,356 yards on 75 catches to 1,014 yards on 72 catches. The actual opposite of IUK.
Starting point is 01:08:26 Is that a cautionary tale? It is, yeah. I mean, that's the point is when you're talking about a player who is getting around 80 or fewer receptions, you're not going to usually have consistency. The fact that you had consistency from IUK this year is just surprising, impressive, and hopefully that means next year he, for Iuke,
Starting point is 01:08:48 graduates from the 80 receptions. But if you're living in the 80 or fewer receptions, you're not usually going to be a consistent player. There will be some other wide receivers we talk through, but not today. We'll get into it on the Rookie Review Show. Jaden Reed, Rashi Rice, Zae Flowers, Tank Dell, big names you want to hear about. Those will be part of our Rookie Review Show. Jaden Reed, Rashi Rice, Zae Flowers, Tank Dell, big names you want to hear about. Those will be part of our
Starting point is 01:09:07 Rookie Review episode on Thursday. We will come back with the truth about the tight end position and review that. It was interesting this year. See if we can convince Jason
Starting point is 01:09:20 to go in on Brock Bowers in the first round. Probably can't. Not bloody likely. And that'll do it for today. So thank you for joining us. We appreciate you. Make sure you head over to Spotify, Apple.
Starting point is 01:09:31 Leave us a review if you've got a couple seconds today. It helps the show. You can find us on YouTube, youtube.com slash the fantasy footballers. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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