Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Too Hot to Handle! + Risk vs Reward - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/1

Episode Date: July 1, 2025

Fantasy Football show for July 1, 2025. Rising temperatures and draft costs! Find out which players are “too hot to handle” in 2025 fantasy football drafts! Jayden Daniels, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Omarion Hampton, and others discussed! Plus, reactions to Jonnu Smith traded to the Steelers and more! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.2025 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at https://www.UltimateDraftKit.com(00:00) Introduction(06:35) NFL News(06:40) Jonnu Smith / Darren Waller Trades(19:10) Too Hot To Handle(20:40) Jayden Daniels(26:05) Jared Goff(30:30) Omarion Hampton(36:55) D’Andre Swift(40:10) Jaxon Smith-Njigba(44:45) Travis Hunter(49:55) Tyler WarrenConnect with the show:Subscribe on YouTubeVisit us on the WebSupport the ShowFollow on XFollow on InstagramJoin our Discord

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers, it is July 1st. Jason Moore, Andy Holloway and a cardboard bear extraordinaire. Jay Grizz in the building today. No, Mike. It's a weird welcome. It's a weird show because we haven't been here for a while.

That's right. But it doesn't seem that way to you. Right. We's magic. We pre-recorded some episodes, and we all took our annual summer family vacations. We try to do it at the same time so that no one misses a show. Right. Because we pre-record them together.

That's right. We leave at the same time. We all come back. Yep. Boom-bam. Boom-bam. I mean, 10 Sundays till football. 10 Sundays until football.

So we're getting the family time in Pre-recorded a couple of episodes episodes. We had a mock draft show. We had an AMA show Everybody survived the the flights back from where they were and then fortunate But you you're completely upside down time wise because you went overseas for the first time in your life. That's right I woke up at 3 a.m. this morning. Yeah. And we thought we were good. And then we got word this morning that Mike met his demise with somebody. Somebody in the plane gave him something. So we'll see if he's back later this week. But we've got a great show ahead. Just the two of us and the cardboard bear, Jason. So lots going on. I mean, even on the drive in to work today, we got more

NFL news, almost like a punctuation mark at the end of the Steelers Dolphins News of the Weekend. It felt less like a punctuation mark and more like a punchline. Like it felt like a joke to me. It really is. These back. Who would have thought Darren Waller would be back in the NFL? We're all wondering, you know, the rumors are the Dolphins are looking to trade for a tight end or replace John Smith. We'll get to all this in the news, but as we look, is it going to be Kyle Pitts? Oh, is it going to be Michael Mayer? It's like, what about the guy who retired a couple of years ago?

Yeah, we'll have to update the graphics there. He's going to have a New Jersey on. But yeah, we'll talk about that momentarily. One of the big announcements that we want to make, because it is July 1st, it means a couple of things. One, we are moving to three shows a week. There will not be a show on Saturday this week, July 4th, the day before, 4th of July weekend, there won't be a Saturday show, but then it will be three shows a week for

the rest of July. And we move to five shows a week starting in August through December and the end of the NFL season. So we are almost there. This is one of the reasons why we're snuck out of town for a minute. July being here means that the draft analyzer has launched. Yes! So all of you that have the UDK Plus, or if you're an Ultimate Foot Clan member, you already have the tool.

If you've done any drafts, or even if you do a mock draft, or if you've got a dynasty league and you just want to check on your roster, you can import or manually put them in across many platforms and get your grade. Now this year we're grading the entire league. So that was really cool to see in our dynasty league how bad your team was Andy. Oh, it's as bad as it gets.

Because you tore it down to the nubs for a rebuild. But I love that we've never had the tool to compare the whole league until after. Is that right, Al? Am I an F-? You are an F. I don't know if it was minus or not. I mean it should be an F-. Yeah, I mean it's on purpose, so you can't feel bad about it. I actually feel better about it. Not like I did it right. I stand corrected. You have a D. You're the only one in the league with a D, but you do have the D. Yeah, okay. Well, no, this is a new feature, and what's cool is it breaks down not only the grades of your opponents in your league,

but it also breaks down their position grouping. So it's a really unique tool, in addition to the draft analyzer, that allows you to target teams for trades. So, you know, a lot of dynasty teams will get plugged in right now because those drafts have happened, and rookie drafts have happened.

And then later through August August you'll plug your redraft teams in there and then you can identify weaknesses on your opponents which is brand new this year and you can make trades based on that we're working on some in-season trade tools we're just trying to make the products better I mean that's the everything's always LDR of it all everything's always updated if you want our help throughout the season and in draft season, get the Ultimate Draft Kit at ultimatedraftkit.com. I mean, I was changing stats at 36,000 feet because John New Smith got traded.

That wasn't going to wait around. I thought it was 37,000. You were only flying at 36? Yeah. Sorry. It was... And they were showing it in meters. Ridiculous.

Did they change to feet like halfway over the ocean? How does that work? I think it's the- Did they get back to your home style? British Airlines on the way back, so the whole thing was better. And you did have a good time on the trip despite the waking up at random hours?

Despite the time zone change and Parisians, we had a great trip. I did, in general? I heard it was very hot in Paris. Which was not the break you wanted from Arizona. No, it was brutal. But it was a great trip. Alright, well we have a lot of news to talk about. We also have a fun segment today called Too Hot to Handle. We'll be talking about some players whose average draft position might be a little too steep.

But we'll discuss whether we agree. about some players whose average draft position might be a little too steep, but we'll discuss whether we agree and a couple other reminders you can watch the show on YouTube, youtube.com slash The Fantasy Footballers. Now is the time to subscribe, click the bell, make sure you catch our live events including Sunday Live every single week of the year where the hitman himself or one of us will be with you in the morning getting you ready for your matchups and start sit decisions decisions and make sure you follow on Spotify and Apple right now drop us a review we would really appreciate it it helps the show out let's jump right into that wild news

news and notes from around the league from around the league. Well, we thought it could happen and there were rumors and Arthur Smith has, has a, an infatuation for somebody and his name is John who Smith. John who Smith was traded after a, uh, career best year in Miami. A lot of implications from this move, but he goes to Pittsburgh along with Jaylen Ramsey in a seventh round pick, and then they sign John who do a one year deal, which I mean, we can talk about Pittsburgh in general.

Pittsburgh seems like one year is really a good descriptor of their strategy right now with Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Ramsey at his age, older than Minka Fitzpatrick, and then Johnny Smith on a one-year deal. I'm very curious your reaction to this. I know you like Tomlin. Pittsburgh is weird. Yeah, I mean, they are obviously going for it. They believe they're in a win-now mode.

And obviously, if you've got Aaron Rodgers, that is what... If you make the decision to grab Aaron Rodgers and put him at the head of your franchise, you need to do exactly what they're doing. You need to say, okay, this is our window as a year, so how do we have the best team now? And if we need to tear it down and rebuild after Aaron Rodgers is gone, then that's what we'll have to do. So I don't blame them for any of these moves. I think for fantasy football purposes, the John U'Smith trade is pretty massive. Like it had a larger effect.

A lot of times people change teams, a trade happens, a free agent signing, and very little changes. But here, John O'Smith went from my tight end four, who on, you know, last week, I was super excited to draft him. Yeah, it feels like one got deleted. Yeah, he's deleted, he's done.

Pat Fryermuth is deleted, he's done. They're going to cannibalize each other. On the Dolphins side though. The fantasy football porpoises side. Yeah, I mean there was, John who was a real, real problem in his target market share for Tyreek Hill, for Jalen Waddle, and then Devon Aitchin has more room.

That's the area of the field where it was like it was all John Woo and Aitchin with those short dinkid dunks. So those three all get a bump up, and now obviously we've got to factor in the Walrus showing up, but I don't personally think that the Walrus is going to have a massive impact. I don't think he's going to have a 20% target share like John who Smith had at 33 years

old coming off of retirement when he didn't look good last time we saw him. I tend to agree. I mean, he'll be he'll make an impact in the red zone most likely, but from a total reception standpoint, it won't be close to what Johnnie did. I'll go back to the Steelers. We'll just talk about that for a second. I think right now we know how devoid of pass-sketching options they are at wide receiver. You can say you like Calvin Austin. He's a role player. DK Metcalf is their guy.

But now you're looking at a lot of 12th personnel. I mean, and a lot of the running game balance. I mean, I think, you know, you look at them, they can run Freyermuth and Johnnie Smith out there. Johnnie Smith will do a bunch of different things in the offense the way he did with Arthur Smith in Tennessee and Arthur Smith in Atlanta. And we kept wondering in Atlanta why Arthur Smith

was giving Johnnie Smith a bunch of work and Kyle Pitts was nothing. Now we kind of understand, we Johnny Smith's impact because John who's better yeah he's a better player and he's more versatile he does more things you can you can throw him the ball behind the line of scrimmage you can hand him the football he can play fullback so Arthur Smith will do a lot with them and it's kind of a weird situation for fantasy players because look I'm confident in DK Metcalf

I think he's a great value in drafts right now But now it look beyond that you just deleted both tight end both of those tight ends seem like they're not gonna be week-to-week starts You also have a running back situation you you like Caleb Johnson. I like Caleb Johnson But it's still an enigma right now. It's still a question mark. You have Jalen Warren well, you hope that the 12 personnel, like he will run, Arthur Smith runs two tight ends far more, far more than anyone else in the league. By the way, they have three good ones.

Right, yes. They're in Washington too. Yeah, a great sixth offensive lineman in Washington. So I think this is good news for Caleb Johnson. But it's just the second pass catcher on this team, which I thought Pat Fryer-Muth had an avenue to get Luth the Muth. And that just seems gone because they're both going to

have enough opportunities from game to game, but you can't, I don't think we'll have any kind of predictability where we can decide I want to start Pat Fry and Muth this week or I want to start John Smith I can't imagine either of them have such a stranglehold over the target pecking order so it just feels like two players that got deleted and they we know the evidence of Arthur Smith they're not gonna throw the ball as much as we want them to no they won't so So, I mean, that's just gonna be, it's just interesting, I mean, the Steelers,

they still have to figure out T.J. Watt. I mean, that's still something hanging out. They'll figure that out. Over the team, and then the Dolphins, the initial reaction for me was consolidation of targets. Tyree Kale, Jalen Waddle, Devon Achan, all get a bump. I loved Achan already. It's kind of a little bit maybe unfortunate ADP-wise

because I think he will rock it up. But you and I, we made our adjustments. We got him at three and four. Yeah, I was really surprised that he ended up at three for me, but I look at the area of the field and the quick targets, the two alikes, and the personnel of who that could go to. And so I don't know once I put in Darren Waller, that news just broke this morning, so I have not yet updated the stats. Maybe that pushes A-chan back to running back four, but I mean, he is very, very high. And if you look at-

Top tier. Yeah, top tier with the amount of targets that, very high. And if you look at- Top tier. Yeah, top tier with the amount of targets that are coming his way. If you look at the Dolphins in 2023 versus the Dolphins in 2024, you can see, just look at the wide receivers and tight ends in their target shares.

In 2023, before John O'Smith, 68% of the targets went to wide receivers and only 9% went to tight ends. They were not throwing the ball to the tight end position much. They didn't have a tight end of note. And then last year, it dropped from 68% to wide receivers all the way down to 50%, which is terrible. And tight ends, 9% went all the way up to 27%. It was really frustrating last year, if you remember.

We were watching these kids just being like, stop throwing it to Johnu. He's fine, he's good for tight end. But it was like get the ball to Tyree kill get the ball to Jalen Waddlemore Those are bigger plays So, you know, hopefully this is good for fantasy football and and those three more important players than John Smith Yeah, and people want to talk about Malik Washington who will have an opportunity, but they you got to remember they also added nine Touchdown Nick Westbrook Akine from Tennessee who will have time on the field. It won't just be Malik Washington. So now you have Waller in the mix. And so it's hard to really project a huge breakout,

I think, from Malik. Me personally, I don't project that, but it's within the realm of possibility. And then they go and pick up Darren Waller. Waller I see as just, I mean, we don't have him stated yet, we just got this news, but probably tight end 13 to 20 something in that range. I mean, where do you? No, that'll probably be where he lands. If I had to throw a number, I would have said like tight end 16. But genuinely, once you're tight in 7, you're irrelevant.

Right. Yeah, no, it's just... You're not making a fantasy impact winning, you know, you're streaming the position at that point. Alright, so that's the initial breakdown on all those moves, and all of that will be updated in the Ultimate Draft Kit. All our stat projections have been updated outside of Waller, which we'll do shortly after this episode a Couple other news blurbs Adam Schefter said there's quite a gap between the commanders and Terry McLaurin not surprised there Yeah, I'm a corn knee his age combined with the production He's going to think more of his season than than they probably will yeah I am surprised simply due to the fact that he's such a core locker room You know the like the leader of the team,

I'm surprised that it's not getting a deal done. It shouldn't be surprising. They should not be giving Terry McLaurin a massive contract at his age just because he had a bunch of touchdowns last year. So obviously, there's something's gotta get figured out there. Yeah, I wonder if this will be a lot of smoke

and McLaren will show up or, you know, they can't sign him to a long-term. No, that's what I was gonna say. They need to give him a big money, one-year extension. Yeah, move some money. Or make it like a two-year deal or do one of the fake three-year deals where there's like no money in the third year

and it's really a two-year deal. Yeah, no. Make it sound good on paper, but then, you know, you've got a rookie quarterback, so you can pay. Like Sutton once. Probably the same thing they need to do with Sutton in Denver. Sean Payton, speaking of Denver, too early to project the running back depth chart. This was discussions around J.K. Dobbins,

we got R.J. Harvey, so. It'll be really interesting. I'm starting to think J.K. Dobbins might be one of the best picks in fantasy. That's gross though. That sucks. It is, but he is not going to be drafted until double-digit rounds. And I think that if you look at everybody being drafted, and I don't know where he is right now. It's got to be

low. It's got to be in the 12th, 13th round. There's not running backs who have a chance. So yeah, he's running back 43 in the 12th round right now. Yeah, it's worth a flyer. There's a chance he's the starter. There's the chance that he is the main fantasy scorer this year over RJ Harvey. You're not wrong. It's just, it's not fun. It's fun if he's the star it's yeah, if you have him sure But it's one of those things that the process for that to be true. I think is annoying to fantasy players

Because it means that RG Harvey's not what they wanted him to be and so it's gonna be sure he would be a bust Yeah, no that that's that's fair And I will say that usually the fantasy community over the last five years we get it right more often than not the running back who is the first one drafted is usually going to be the starter that will obviously be RJ Harvey right now he's going in the sixth round running back 24 so and and he is the more explosive player at this stage of their careers all right other than that we had a small report actually I, I saw multiple reports of this. And this is important.

Going back and forth, actually. Oh, really? There was a report earlier that Kenny Pickett had the lead. This is such a snip, snap, snip, snap. But then it later came out, Cameron Wolf, at least reporting that Joe Flacco is the favorite to land the starting job. Fantasy players want Joe Flacco?

The Browns might not want that. Might not be the best thing for their future. Kevin, Kevin, listen up. I was looking in our studio to see if there was a Kevin in here. No, Stefanski is not in here, but he's listening. Kevin, just put Joe behind center, okay? Just put Joe, get rid of Kenny Pickett.

He's not gonna be your future, he's not gonna be your present. Let Joe Flacco air it out, give us Jerry Judy, give us David Najoku, give us some great- Cedric Tillman. Oh yeah, Cedric Tillman. And then develop Shadoor Sanders. Like that's, we're done here.

Kevin, just obey. So just cut Pickett. Yes, get rid of him. Okay. You traded like a fifth for him. That was probably compelling enough for him to. I think so. To make a change.

Yeah, I'd like to see Flacco. And look, every team in the NFL has a shot. With that defense, who knows? You could win games with that defense and Joe Flacco, you can't win with Kenny Pickett. I don't think, I don't think you can. But I can't wait to hear in our comments the people that believe that you can.

All right, we'll take a break and we'll get into Too Hot to Handle. ["Too Hot to Handle"] All right, it's time to take an in-depth look at where players are falling in average draft position and whether we think you're going to have to stay away. Too hot to handle. All right, we're going to talk about some players, Jason, that are looking maybe too hot to handle at their current average draft positions, although I don't know if we'll agree on every single one of them. Well, I hope we don't talk through some players.

The opportunity cost is what we're talking about. You know, ADP is so important for fantasy players to, you know, everybody wants to draft and get value. And if you draft the player at their ceiling, they have to perform up to that ceiling for them to be worthy of the draft pick. And it can be very, very difficult for that to happen. Look no further than a few years ago, Baker Mayfield with Landry and Beckham looked at CJ Stroud last year. You draft the player at a certain point in your fantasy draft and you put yourself in the position where you're locked in with them.

And it can hurt you. So we'll talk through it. These are basically bust picks. These are piss picks where these are. Are they now? Yeah, you don't wanna piss away these picks. You know what I mean? Yeah, no, well done.

But this is, it is the opportunity cost. If J.K. Dobbins is gonna, J.K. Dobbins can't be a bust. It's impossible to be a bust in the 12th round. Correct. So this is more- That's not a piss poor pick. Exactly. This is more about, should they be going where they're going? So, let's start here at the tippy top of the quarterback position because Jaden Daniels is being drafted higher than any other sophomore quarterback in fantasy football history. So that statement alone... It reminds me a lot of Marvin Harrison last year being

drafted higher than any rookie wide receiver in the history of fantasy football. 305 as the quarterback three right now. Jaden Daniels did not finish as the quarterback three. He was the quarterback five last year. He had 148 rushing attempts. That's the seventh most all time for a quarterback. And I see your head kind of- This is so hard, man. Dive down.

I don't think it would be wise. This is my personal opinion. I don't think it's wise to draw the connection between Jaden Daniels and CJ Stroud. I think that would be a mistake. For fantasy purposes, they play so wildly different. CJ Stroud, not a great mobile running quarterback. For fantasy, Jaden Daniels has a superpower. And so I think the only correlation there between Stroud and Daniels is simply the group think of year two always gets better. That doesn't

always happen. Year two is not always better. You've talked about the schedule for Washington. I've talked about the fact that there's headroom obviously in the passing touchdown department. He only threw, I mean only, I mean it's a lot, 25. But it's, there's room there, 3, but it's, it, it, there's room there, 3,500 passing yards. There's room there. It would come probably at the expense of the 891 rushing yards. If he threw the ball more, but he scored six times on the ground, 25 passing.

So 31 total touchdowns. Um, it does not always get better. The question here is, will you be disappointed with Jaden Daniels drafting him in the third round, which is behind two other quarterbacks? So you're not taking him as the first quarterback overall, obviously. But, you know, are you going to be disappointed with the opportunity cost of Jaden Daniels when there are other players on the board? You know, in our mock draft, Jalen Hurts went much later. I took Joe Burrow much later. You have players like Baker much later in the draft six round and then you have other position players like

Kyron Williams going around that spot Chase Brown going around that spot Garrett Wilson Like it is not and non it is very consequential to make that decision Yeah, this is gonna cost you a lot and you're calling your shot for an upgrade. If he does what he did last year, which he was a consistency score of an A, he helped people win championships and that, you know how good he was, but he helped you win championships because he was a later round pick. So you already had your stable of running backs and wide receivers solidified. The question is if he were to do what he did last year again, which I think is a very fair baseline to start from, some things are gonna get harder

for him with a year of tape and a much more difficult schedule in year two. Yeah, so if he did what he did last year, are you happy at 305? I think you're not crushed. I think you're okay, but I don't think you're happy. I don't think if he does what he did last year, finishes as the quarterback five, and you're drafting him in the third round

as the quarterback three, no, I don't think you won the championship. I don't think you- Okay, that's a good way to put it. At the end of the year, I don't think that that pick helped you win the championship. The question is, for this to be good, is Jayden Daniels truly that dude where he can go out there and throw for 4,000,

rush for 800, throw for 30 plus touchdowns? I do think he could do that. I do not think it is probable that he would do that. But I do think that is within the realm of outcomes or the range of outcome. Where do you have? Do you know where you have him right? You've got him at quarterback for? Yeah, and I was going to say I would feel really cozy with him in the fourth round, because I grabbing three more names ahead of him in the draft and then going to Jayden

Daniels. Like I guess that's a way of saying I think he is a little bit too hot to handle. And we had the show, the underrated, overrated. I was the only side of underrated for the Washington offense. You two both went overrated on Washington. I have him projected for 4,000 passing yards, because his passing attempts,

they went way up over the second half of the year as he became more comfortable in the pocket and this was an elite season I mean this was borderline MVP type of year for Jaden Daniels as a rookie so but I do have him at four and it really again it's a comparison of who you could take later and I'd be very happy with Jalen Hurts, and I'd be very happy with Joe Burrow, and I'd be pretty happy with Baker Mayfield. And if because I'm happy with those other positions and I could stack up running back on wide receiver,

I do think he leans towards too hot to handle. Yeah, I am fine with where he's going, but ironically, I would take Jalen Hurts over Jaden Daniels, like straight up, if they both cost the same thing. The fact that Jalen Hurts is around later, and I compare him with one of his wide receivers I like more, like if I'm building a stack, I don't really want the Jaden Daniels, Terry McLoran stack

as much as I would want the Jalen Hurts and either one of his main two wide receiver stack. So I lay on the two hot to handle. It makes sense, and it's not an insult to Jaden Daniels. It's a reaction to the reaction of the fantasy community and where he's going. I will say where he is going. There seems to be a break between players,

like ahead of him being drafted, Kyron Williams, T Higgins, Trey McBride, I see those guys as awesome, extreme difference makers. Behind Jaden Daniels, those players, there's Terry McLaurin and James Cook and Breece Hall. And none of us are taking McLaurin over Jaden. No. In the third. No. So I don't think he's going in a terrible spot. It's just a matter of what other quarterbacks

you believe are better or worse than him speaking of other quarterbacks It's it's actually interesting to bring this name up, but Jared Goff Is the only quarterback to finish in the top ten each of the last three years and yet? Eighth round Jared Goff top of the eighth round is the highest he has ever been drafted So his current price 802, lots of off season discussion around the offense, does it take a step back? Simply based on the law of averages,

the fact that you can't keep doing what you're doing and now you've lost your offensive coordinator. Sorry, he's one of three quarterbacks to finish inside the top two. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts. I misspoke. And Jared Goff. Allen Hurts and Goff. So the other two you're paying a really high price for. Jared Goff has always been sneaky good, sneaky good games, top tier performances, but not necessarily...

He's the worst, man. He's the worst. He's the worst. He's the worst pick. I can't fathom. In eighth round. I can't fathom taking Jared Goff in, you know, maybe there's some formats. 2QB, okay. But if he's my, if I'm in a single quarterback league, Jared Goff's not consistent. Jared Goff, they've got such a good running game, you can have a dominant performance from the Lions where Jared Goff didn't throw a bunch of times. Let me make it really simple,

and I was trying to paint the other picture, but if you're gonna lock a guy into your starting quarterback position the entire year, Jared Goff or Bo Nix? Bo Nix. Jared Goff or Kyler Murray to be locked in? Kyler. Jared Goff or Jordan Love to be locked in?

Jordan Love. Jared Goff or Brock Purdy to be locked in. Brock Purdy. All those guys are going way behind him. Way behind him in the draft. Way too hot to him. And to be clear, I don't necessarily think those names you brought up should be locked in.

No, but comparatively to Goff based on consistency. But like Dak Prescott. Yeah. Dak Prescott or Jared Goff, I think I'd rather have Dak Prescott. And he's so, so many rounds later. Jared Goff is going to finish this season with a good season total.

And we talk about this on the Truth series. If you're with us in the offseason when we go through the Truth of fantasy quarterbacks, sometimes you're Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers, every single year, was a quarterback one. Yeah, QB10, QB10, QB10. Yeah, keep it 10, keep it 10, keep it 10. Yeah, and it's like, oh, that sounds so great. He's been a top 12 quarterback for six straight years.

You don't like him? But then you play the season, the fantasy season, and if he's your quarterback every week, you're losing mo- he is not a difference maker. He's not consistent. He's not gonna go out there and every week win you games. He's gonna lose you as many as he wins. He's a C in our grade for consistency.

So I don't know, man. I can't imagine that I want to spend an eighth round pick on Jared Goff. If someone else grabs Jared Goff ahead of you, are you gonna be like, no! No, you don't care. No, you're probably. Drats!

It's the worst situation because what is a quarterback in the eighth round? Are you drafting an every week starter? You shouldn't be. I mean, you can't. I mean, you hope to. And if you're not, are you drafting a second one? Are you really taking Goff and pairing him with

Caleb later or Herbert later? I mean, it just, it's an unnecessary selection, I think, in the eighth round. I'm with you, it's too hot to handle. It's no disrespect to the near MVP Jared Goff last year, but. You also have, obviously Ben Johnson is gone, and their center, their awesome center is gone. Jared Goff has never been one

that was great under pressure. So if that offensive line ends up leaky in the middle, that won't be great for Goff. All right, this one might be more difficult, Jason. Too hot to handle. Amari and Hampton. This one will be more difficult. The running back. You are correct. The running back for the Chargers currently being drafted at 411 as the RB 18. This is the 22nd overall pick in the NFL draft. This is a player you and I adored on film. It's great that Mike's absent for this discussion.

Because you and I can just talk about the glowing reviews we have of Omari and Hampton. He was unbelievable. He is a perfect NFL running back. He is a three down back that will block better than anyone out there. He will pass catch, he will goal line short yardage, he will break long plays.

He is a perfect running back prospect who was drafted in the first round to a team that wants to run the ball. He also should instantly look much better than Najee on film. Like it should be one of those things that's very quickly apparent on film, but there are other elements in play. Najee's there, man. There are other elements in play. Nagy's there, man. Nagy is there.

The team has spoken so highly of him. They pursued him. I don't know if they pursued him thinking they would take Hampton at 22 or not. And rookie running backs make a huge impact, but... I don't know what to do with Hampton. But if you take him, he might not start for a while. He might not start, and he might finish the entire year just being a timeshare running back.

And Najee is 12 spots, or 12 running backs behind Hampton in drafts, which makes sense. But you talk about like, Najee at 7'10' could start, and could produce. Omarion Hampton, when you draft Ashin Genti, you are getting a three down back. He's going to be on the field for 60 plus percent of the snaps. He's going to have an incredible volume of work. And Omarion Hampton was drafted to be that player for the Chargers. The

question is win and I don't know if it's even in 2025. If they want to win it should be but that doesn't necessarily mean it will be. Najee is not as good as Hampton but Najee is not bad. Najee is not a detriment to your team. Giving the ball to Najee is not going to hurt your offense so drastically. Not bad, Najee. It's not, yeah, he's not bad enough to make it to where Harbaugh and Giro are gonna have to make

that decision and say, look, we've gotta go more to Hampton, we have to go more to Hampton because our drives are being stopped by Naji We're just got to make that transition That's my fear is I think Naji is good enough where they will never this season and that's actually my belief I don't think Hampton this season becomes The bell cow so you don't think he will but there's still a chance. He does. Oh for sure The problem one of the problems I have is this the juxtaposition with like Quintchon Judkins in Cleveland

Mm-hmm who is? Drafted in the seventh round right now. Yeah, cuz nobody wants to touch a Cleveland Brown player But Judkins from week one should be the guy Yeah, I agree. It's not just him. I think this something And you know my love for Caleb Johnson. Caleb Johnson is again in the seventh round. There's other rookie running backs that are. Did I pluralize?

Did I fail to pluralize? No, no, no, I just, I think that, yeah. Yeah, okay. There are Cleveland Brown players you don't wanna touch, so. So, yeah, I mean, where do you stand? If you're getting Hampton at the back of the fourth as the running back 18, there is no doubt

that Hampton could destroy that ADP. Like, he could finish the season as the running back six, seven, eight. He feels like he's one way or the other. This is not where Hampton ends up. But we love Hampton. You and I both look and say he is superior to Nadji. He is awesome.

Whenever you take, in fantasy football, a first round NFL drafted running back, it works. I will say he's not too hot to handle. I like Chuba right behind him a little bit more. I don't mind James Connor a little bit more behind him. But beyond that, this is as discounted as you, it's not like Hampton's going ahead of Mixon. He's not going ahead of Alvin Kamara.

So I think I'm okay. I think I'm okay. My issue with where he's going is not the veterans, it's the other rookie running backs. I just think there's such a value's the other rookie running backs. I just think there's such a value on the other rookie running backs. But it's Judkins, like I don't want Henderson. You got, are you that into Henderson?

Above, so my rankings for the rookies, Henderson and Judkins are both seventh round picks. I've got Quinchon Judkins and Caleb Johnson ahead of Omari and Hampton. Omari and Hampton's my third, but I've got him just ahead of RJ Harvey and Trevion Henderson, within the rooks. So what's your final verdict?

I do not think it's too hot to handle. I think it's right on the edge. I'm going- And that's good enough for a rookie running back to make an impact. It's not too hot to handle. Okay. It's really not. He could be a steal as the running back, Art 18. And let's say Najee... My belief is that Najee Harris will make this a timeshare for the entirety of the season.

So now let's talk about Omarion Hampton in the timeshare. Yeah, Najee doesn't get hurt. He's not going to... Omarion Hampton in a timeshare is not going to disappear. He's not going to be the running back 40 just because he's sharing time. He's going to be the more explosive player. Man, we just went into this with Gus Edwards last year and J.K. Dobbins too.

Yeah, I... We're the best player played. I look at where he's going and while that might not be the rookie running back I take, I'm fine with him going there. All right, we will take another break. We got some more names to mention. Be back in a second. ["RB-29", by The Bachelorette Band, playing in background.]

All right, too hot to handle. I have a pretty quick reaction to this name. Seventh round, ninth pick, RB 29, Deandre Swift, one of the biggest risers in basketball league since the NFL draft. And for me, not even remotely too hot to handle. I don't want to draft him though. You don't?

I don't. I do want to draft him though. You don't. I don't. I do want to draft him. I want to win dirty. Yeah, that's the way to win dirty. He's, I mean, he's not too hot to handle because he's the running back, what? What's his average draft position? He's being drafted as?

RB 29. Yeah, I mean, that's stupid. He's finished currently in his career as the running back 18, 19, 22, 23, 19 has the best of his career opportunity lined up for him going into this year. Being drafted as running back 29 is, that's basically what his floor is,

and I think that's probably below what his floor is, barring injury. So he's clearly not too hot to handle. I still don't want to draft him, man. I just, what is his upside? Like, I don't think. It's high. I don't think so.

I think it is. I don't think he can be a top 10 running back. You just, I mean, we just talked about. He's not good enough. What they're, I mean, he. He doesn't stay healthy enough. He wasn't good enough in Philadelphia. Exactly.

But he was good enough for your fantasy team in Philadelphia. But he finishes the running back 23, and he played 16 games for Philly. He finishes the running back 23 with a better offensive line. You know, it's- I don't think the expectation to start that year, though, was, like, I think this first three weeks, he barely got any work.

I think he took off, or am I wrong? Let me look into that. In Philadelphia, I mean, he was- Just the first week. Let me look into that. In Philadelphia, I mean he was. Just the first week. Let me put it this way. He was RB 19 last year with a crap offensive line and no offensive coordinator. Right.

So I think he could finish as the running back. His ceiling could be top 12. See, I think his ceiling is like. Or peering in the window at 13. Yeah, peering in the window. Peering in the window at 13 at the other guys that have talent. Sure.

Man, I feel like this is a player we know exactly who he is. He's frustrating. Yeah. He's. Frustrating enough for Detroit to ship him off. Yeah, he's not a bad player. He's... Frustrating enough for Detroit to ship him off. Yeah, he's not a bad player. He's not a great player.

He is not a great running back. He has vision problems. He has health problems. So, I don't know, man. This is a guy who, what, last year, he was the running back 19. You brought that up. Another consistency rating of a C.

Okay, you want Najee on your team or Swift? You want Brian Robinson on your team or Swift? You want Brian Robinson on your team or Swift Brian Robinson? I would rather there's one going behind him Jalen Warren Caleb Johnson Caleb Johnson, baby. Yeah, yeah boy. Your voice deepened and it's scary Etn oh shut up That's it you can't do that. You can't bring his name up. All right, too hot to handle. Jackson, Smith and Jigba going at 211. Wide receiver 12.

Man, Mike has me scared on this one. Mike has me really scared. You can make such a clear and easy argument for Jackson, Smith and Jigba who, as a prospect, what do we think of him as a prospect coming out that year? Was he your number one prospect? He's a great player. He's a great player, he's a great wide receiver.

Last year with DK Metcalf, with Tyler Lockett, he finishes the wide receiver 10. Yep, being drafted at wide receiver 12. So now he's going into year three, he leveled up, he was incredible the second half of last year too. First half of last year he was still figuring it out. It clicked, he was awesome at the end, he was on pace for 1700 yards.

But Mike's data on the year two breakout and where their ADP. Mike's dad would like you to know. Mike's dad-da, dad-da. His research on the year that you break out and the following season, whether you meet or exceed ADP production. Basically fantasy players after a breakout,

in year two, we overreact. We overreact. That's the data. And the problem to me. That's what his dad told me. The problem to me is that that makes so much sense. Yes. It makes so much sense.

Because it's the beginning of your career, you flashed incredible potential. Everything I just said. That's the number one type of player everybody wants on their team. Everybody wants that. He broke out, but he's not like being drafted as that top guy yet.

Maybe he'll. Maybe he can be one. That's what it is. Yep. The year two player, we all say he could be the new one. He could be the new. Like overall. Yeah, he'll finish as the best.

He'll be a top, yeah. And the data says that only eight of 19 of those guys meet the expectations in year three, which is a 42% shot. You don't want. Only two of the 19, though, were big hits. Right. As in they crushed, they were league winners,

which is what you're hoping for. When you're drafting at the 211 as the wide receiver 12, this is, that is, I mean. You don't win a championship if he doesn't make a step forward. Correct. And so basically your second pick of the draft, potentially, you might have 30 to 40% odds of that being worth it. That sounds too hot to handle.

I don't, I don't want to always agree on all these players though. Have we totally agreed? Yeah, I believe so. Well, you know what, I'm gonna change on DeAndre Swift. Too hot to handle. Okay, so that you can agree now? Yeah. Okay. Because I think it is a little too hot to handle.

I look at whether it's, Jackson Smith and Jigba at that 2-11 as the wide receiver 12 or around later Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison, Mike Evans, around later, around later. There's wide receivers that I like just as much as him. DK Metcalf's in the fifth round. Who has a better season this year, DK Metcalf or JSN? I hope it's JSN, I hope he takes that leap forward, but the cost, you know, he's going right next

to Chase Brown. I mean, Harrison's a complete round later. I would much rather have- Marvin Harrison. Yeah, I would much rather have Chase Brown as my running back, and then a round later take Marvin Harrison Jr., as opposed to sacrifice that. I mean, let me look what running back is going next to the next running back.

You're looking at like Kenneth Walker over where Marvin Harrison's going? Okay, so we agree. I mean, Tyree Kale, where did he go in your, because he's going behind JSN right now, but where did he move in your rankings after, because to me, I feel like Tyree Kill, where did he go in your, because he's going behind JSN right now, but where did he move in your rankings after, because to me, I feel like Tyree Kill is starting to slip into sneaky categories.

Tyree Kill was pretty much undraftable for me. Yeah, you really spoke out against him. I was out, you just don't have wide receivers at that age bounce back after a bad season, and he played the whole season, I know he had the wrist issue but my biggest issue was the two of John New Smith connection on those dinkin' dunks and that the valuable targets for Tyree Kill weren't coming with John New Smith not there he is my wide receiver 14. He's at 10. Yeah. I'm a little bit afraid to say that, but he's at 10 right now. All right, Travis Hunter is in the seventh round.

Wide receiver 35. Weird situation for Travis Hunter. I don't have strong convictions right now. I do. You do? Oh yeah, this is in no way, shape, or form too hot to handle. Oh, so your convictions are towards Travis Hunter being a steal? Travis Hunter is the best wide receiver in this draft. The issue

with Travis Hunter is a question of does, is he a full-time wide receiver? He wants to be a cornerback, he wants to be a wide receiver. Is he gonna be out there for 55% of the snaps, and then also playing cornerback? Or is he gonna be a full-time receiver and then also play cornerback? Doesn't the answer to that question make him? Oh, it's risky. It's absolutely risky, but it's not too hot to handle.

In the seventh round, is my wide receiver 35 being drafted? His potential as the best wide receiver in this draft class, a rookie, rookie wide receivers, they win fantasy championships. If he comes out and is a full-time player. We're gonna disagree. Oh, fantastic. We're gonna disagree finally,

only because I think the ambiguity, there's a couple things you have to say when you believe in Travis Hunter at this place. One, he's going basically where Tetaroah McMillan is. So I'm getting to make the decision between those two rookies, and I'm gonna take the guy that I know is going to have the target volume, and be the one in Carolina.

So that's part of it. The other part is I am entrusting Trevor Lawrence to supply really functional fantasy value to somebody beyond Brian Thomas. And the fact that the team can make decisions that change week to week on Travis Hunter scares me. Travis Hunter could be a full-time wide receiver for a couple of weeks. And then an injury happens at corner and then they need him to play corner more. I mean, that variability frightens me a little bit.

Will there be games that need him to play both ways so he is lower snap percentage player? I agree that he's the best pure wide receiver in the draft. It's just unfortunate that he's good at other stuff. And so because of that, I don't know how high the ceiling can get for him, and I guess that makes him too hot to handle for me, relative to players I like at that same spot.

Yeah, I mean, I understand. Some people in their drafts, they're cowards. And so I hear what you're saying. Okay. You know, and that's fine to take that approach. They call the brave the ones that lean on Trevor Lawrence. It does make, that're cowards. And so I hear what you're saying. You know, that's fine to take that approach. They call the brave the ones that lean on Trevor Lawrence. That does make sense. Do you have any issue drafting Brian Thomas, Jr.?

No. Okay, so you're leaning, I mean, that's the same quarterback. So if the talent is there for Travis Hunter. Yeah, the talent's there, but the pecking order is not Hunter, then Thomas. Correct. So I think the pecking order in Carolina

is Tedarone McMillan. I think I'm more confident there. So what about some of the vets that are going behind it? Would you rather have Travis Hunter or Calvin Ridley or Khalil Shakir? It depends on the role they play for my fantasy team. I'm not a scapegoat answer, just genuinely like, do I have to start this guy every week?

In a genuine way, it doesn't matter at all what wide, I mean, unless this is my first wide receiver I'm drafting somehow in the seventh round. No, but this is your flex spot? No, I mean, Travis Hunter's upside is worth it to me. His upside is his athleticism to have just constant breakaway sensational I mean he was what was he the second pick in the NFL draft they well yeah they trade the

number two overall tons of guaranteed money this is this is an incredible incredible player I'm if I can draft incredible players in the seventh round I'm gonna take the risk. And the best part is, this ambiguity might keep him there come August. It will. I sure hope so. It probably will.

I mean, you do, I mean him and Roman Dunze, you have at least the same argument there, because a Dunze has to- They're going right next to each other in chess. Has to share, you know, which offense do you like more, neither guy's gonna be the one. So who would you rather have of those two? Rome.

I would rather have Travis Hunter. Yeah, they're basically back to back. That's a fun bet at some point. But I do think we need to stay water with Travis Hunter and how this off season goes. Because if I feel like this team is, the way they're utilizing them in camp is a focal point and offense only and that type of thing,

I reserve the right to change. It's tough because when you look at their depth chart, you realize what they drafted Travis Hunter to be. You know, they got rid of Christian Kirk, they got rid of Gabe Davis, they got rid of Evan Ingram, they've got Brian Thomas, Jr., but then they need Travis Hunter. They need those two guys to be full-time wide receivers.

They do, they do. It makes sense. It's a close one. The last name I wanna mention is a player that I am, I'm pretty infatuated with. Oh, then I know who it is. It's Tyler Warren. The tight end 11 going in the ninth round. This is the third highest rookie tight end draft spot in fantasy football history. Is that true? Wow. Thanks, Brock. That way in the night. But this is big. I mean, Brock Bowers was an afterthought in drafts last year. He really was. He was a seventh round pick. But Titan 9. If you're

drafting him as Titan 9, I mean I remember, and I'll just own this, it's disgusting. But we all did it. I bypassed Brock Bowers and traded up for Kyle Pitts last year in our league of record draft. Yeah. I mean that happened. How's that feel and by train? It feels as gross as anything could be It feel like I know Mike's not feeling well right now I felt worse when that happened, but it wasn't nobody reacted at the draft It wasn't an illogical decision at the time the Brock Bowers was an eighth round pick Yeah, and when he was drafted in our league, it was like, okay cool. You you're taking your shot on him. Everybody hated. Everybody hated the Raiders. He still did it.

Tyler Warren is so talented. And we're sitting here going, oh, Josh, Downs might be better than Pittman, and Pittman might be better than Downs. Hello. Yeah. Anytime you have that discussion at all, you might wanna open your eyes to the super freak

at tight end that you put on the roster that that discussion of downs of Pittman is the reason why I like Tyler Warren as My favorite rookie tight end this year is because he could easily become the two and targets on this team I don't I don't see that for Colson Loveland So I I love Warren this is not too hot to handle no I agree this is not too hot to handle. No, I agree, it's not too hot to handle. I'm fine taking a shot. We talked about this earlier this episode. Once you're tight end seven, you're irrelevant.

You're not a difference maker. So when you're drafting someone at tight end 11, you're streaming the position. Let me just find out. Let me take the shot of week one, see if he's on there and gets two targets or 10 targets. This is like the end of an opportunity for me at tight end too. I mean, tight end also is that the guys behind him

don't have tremendous, Goddard, okay, no upside. Ferguson, I don't see upside. Dalton Kincaid, you can argue that it'll be all right. You won't, you won't make that argument. I won't, but you can see the path for true upside there. Tucker Kraft has some upside, but there's a lot of, okay, there you go. I mean, Colson Loveland's back there and Kyle Pitts is back there. Yes, Kyle Pitts still being drafted by people. Still being drafted. I thought he'd end up in Miami. Yeah, yeah. I thought that'd be the name, but no. No, Kyle Pitts is still being

drafted by people. But I think Tyler Warren's fine right there. I mean, this is a round and a half later than Bowers. I think where the rookie tight ends are being drafted this year, and it's weird for me to say this, I think they're all fine bets. I mean, whether you're talking Colson Loveland, he's going pretty near him, or even go later.

Jason, the rookie tight end guy. Yeah, but Terrence Ferguson? Yeah. Yeah. I mean Mason Taylor, the Rams and Jets respectively, rookie tight ends. I think both of those guys are gonna be pretty full time players.

Yeah. At least Mason Taylor. This is a really deep tight end draft class this year. So I don't have problems with any of the rookie tight ends drafted this year in redraft. Amazing, amazing, amazing sentence. I do remember saying earlier draft season last year that if Brock Bowers were to do it again.

You'd change your tune? That I would adapt. Okay, all right. I think that's gonna wrap it up for today's episode of the show. We wanna get this thing out to you upcoming shows We have the AFC North breakdown Coming up on Thursday

Hopefully we'll have Mike back by then but we'll be going through each of the divisions We'll get another mock draft in there down the line and a reminder again the ultimate Draft kit you can go over there the draft analyzer released today It's available as part of the UDK plus, or if you're an ultimate foot clan member at join the foot.com, either way you get it. And you can check that out ultimate draft kit.com. All right. That is going to do it for today's show on behalf of the bear and Jason Moore. I'm Andy Holloway. Shout out to the deuces back there in deu Alley. We'll be back on Thursday.

Take care.