Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Top 10 Things to Remember for 2026 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 3/5

Episode Date: March 5, 2026

Fantasy Football show for Mar 5, 2026. One of the most important episodes of the year! Andy, Mike, and Jason reveal their biggest lessons learned from last season. Draft tips & trade advice for the 20...26 fantasy football season and dynasty leagues! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Starting point is 00:00:05 Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Thursday, March 5th. Very special episode for you today. Excited to have you with us, Andy, Mike, and Jason, the Fantasy Footballers. Back with you. Al Borland, Papa Josh, the Falcon over there in Ducers' Allie, hanging out with us as Well, 10 things to remember episode today.
Starting point is 00:00:56 It's a big episode. We've been doing this one for quite a while. And, you know, the season is long. The fantasy football world, the NFL at all is changing and transforming and trends are emerging. It's always teaching. Yeah, we're always learning. I mean, there are now at least 120 things to remember over the last 12 years. I will say that you can't go back.
Starting point is 00:01:21 back to the things to remember from previous episodes and have it be relevant. That's the point of why we're trying to remember what happened in the latest year. Because things change. Like some of what I'm talking about today are like, these are new trends. These are different than what we have, what I would have said five years ago. I wrote an article on pretty much the opposite of one of these things about five years ago. It's just changed. It's just as the data changes.
Starting point is 00:01:45 Oh, man, you look so dumb in that article now. You know what I mean? Like, everyone should pull it up. Sure. I mean, the data was great then. No, you got to change your opinions. That's a big part of the show is we always talk about staying water and and adjusting your opinion.
Starting point is 00:01:58 Even like a bonus thing to remember for us is don't get take lock in February, March, and April. Because a lot of situations, you fall in love with players and you fall in love with, you know, where somebody signs and then the draft changes the way that their projection looks and spring training. All of us are spring training. Yeah. I got base. I got. I got the baseball cap on today.
Starting point is 00:02:22 Oh, come on, man. Training camp. Now, I think I'm getting cheers out there. The people are at the spring training games right now. Yeah, there's a dozen people listening that are like, yeah. And, no, when training camp starts, all of a sudden, you're like, wow, they don't believe in that guy the way that I did three months ago. And we have to, we have to remember this, you know, July, August, September. So, but it's a big show.
Starting point is 00:02:43 We got 10 things to remember for 2025, lessons learned. A couple other reminders. The combine just happened. And so we have our update to the Dynasty Pass. I don't think is the post-combine update live yet, Mike? It's probably moments away. Yeah, it is very close. There's a chance then when you're hearing this that it is up,
Starting point is 00:03:06 but it is being worked on. Yeah, talk to the people about the Dynasty Pass and some of the upgrades and features coming out right now. So with all this new information, we have risers and fallers. So, you know, that article is, or not really article, you know, just blurbs on players who's trending in certain directions of a new three-round mock draft, which Jason, I think you guys also did a rookie mock draft on the Dynasty Pod this week, if you want even more access to that information. And then brand new this year.
Starting point is 00:03:41 So this is an announcement, brand new for the Dynasty Pass. we are adding some scouting reports of like the bigger players you know so a specific blurb about that guy some strengths some weaknesses so the dynasty pass always getting better but look for look for round two to be dropping very very soon yeah and all that stuff will be there essentially today or tomorrow i mean it will be there and then we have some other stuff in store that i am super excited about always cooking but uh that's that's coming that's coming a little bit later quite a few things in that category of excited about future launches. We're always adding things to the ultimate draft kit.
Starting point is 00:04:20 And a reminder, too, if you picked up the ultimate draft kit, maybe you participated in the promo during the month of February. And you were trying to get into the listener league and you got the UDK. From basically the moment you buy it until kickoff, if you want, you can expand that purchase into an ultimate subscription as well. And we give you a pro-rated credit for what you purchase. So join thefoot.com's the community if you want to do that over there. No quick question today. We got news to talk about. See what you do.
Starting point is 00:04:49 Got the 10 things to remember to talk about. Let's do it. News and notes from around the league. Well, the Cardinals have, they've informed Kyla Murray that they intend to release him on the first day of the league year next Wednesday. Boo! He put a post out. This is a big domino. For free agency?
Starting point is 00:05:11 It just, it changes everything. Like we did, you know, free agent predictions. and I had talked about, we're like, hey, Malik Willis, what's going to have it with him? I had thought, I had thought the correct thing for the Cardinals to do would be, just keep Kyler Murray for one more year and then go reevaluate and go from there. Obviously, that is not what happened. I got that one wrong. But I was saying, like, well, Malik Willis, I think there's two teams that are real serious,
Starting point is 00:05:40 you know, that he could go to. Now I think it's like, oh, Malik Willis, we'll go to the Cardinals. I genuinely think. And it will be dumb. See, I'm not in that camp. I'm not in that camp. I believe that there's not going to be, and we've talked about this a lot before, if we play the fantasy football manager, the dynasty league manager,
Starting point is 00:06:01 we look at Arizona and we say we're going to plan for 2027, 2028. That's how we would build it out. Accumulate picks for those years, maybe tank and get a quarterback. That's a fantasy football manager. but there is really no patience in the NFL for almost any franchise. The coaching staffs, the players on the team, there just isn't. You know, you bring in a new head coach. And I talked to you about this.
Starting point is 00:06:24 We debated it. To me, it was like Michael Bidwell saying, look, we're bringing this new coach in here. I'm not going to let Kyler be the detriment to a third head coach. Yeah, you were very correct on that. It was Cliff. It was Gannon. Now they want a fresh, clean slate for LaFleur. I think I'm pretty.
Starting point is 00:06:42 predicting it now. I believe Arizona will make three splashes this offseason. I think one will be the quarterback at a amount of money you guys don't like, but I like Malik Willis. I think he's a good quarterback. Is he better than Kyler Murray? I think so. By a wide margin. No, not by a wide margin. No. That's where it's a... I do not think to let go of Jacobi B. Bressett will be there as a mentor slash backup. I think they will sign Travis E.T.N. or a splash running back, but he seems to be the one that I'm focused on. And I think that they will make some significant move on the defensive side of the football via trade. Like, I don't know if it's Max Crosby. I don't know if it's somebody like Trey Hendrickson coming in. I think the Cardinals will make three splashes. None of this is me
Starting point is 00:07:25 saying it will work. It is just what I, the vibe I'm getting out of Arizona, we live here. I think there is an impatience. I think there's a focus on competing this year with LaFleur. None of that will work. But I think that is what they will do via their actions. I don't. I know he hates the press, that he's the worst president in the land. Well, he is. He is. And he will continue to be by swinging the pendulum in the public eye and trying to make a splash. That's what I believe will happen.
Starting point is 00:07:54 One of the issues with them thinking that the patience has run out and that, you know, they're going to go hardcore this year to try to rectify things is they did cut Kyler early. So they are taking the most of the cap hit this year, which I think is smart. It's like this is not a team that's going to win this year, be competing for a Super Bowl. So like, let's just take that money on now. The issue that I have in the, why I booed this is because you could have traded him for a pick. The issue. I don't think you could. No, no, no.
Starting point is 00:08:24 It was absolutely out there reported that basically the reason that we didn't have a suitor is because we were trying to trade the contract. Yes. We're trying to get another team to pay the money. And that's why we couldn't trade him. So what ends up happening now is Kyler's a free agent. gets all the money that he's going to be paid is 100% from the Cardinals now. And what happens is he's going to go play on a minimum contract because offset language in the contract would say like the only way that he would make more money next year.
Starting point is 00:08:55 Like if another team comes out and says, I'm going to pay you 10 million, it's irrelevant. All that does is mean the Cardinals don't have to pay 10 million of it. Kyler doesn't get any more money. So he's just going to go to wherever he thinks is the best destination. And that team's going to get a smoking deal, which is why. people didn't want to trade picks. I just wish that they weren't so stupid as a Cardinal fan. This is why this happens all the time.
Starting point is 00:09:19 Not just the Cardinals. This happens every year three or four times to players that were like, oh my gosh, why'd they cut that guy instead of trade them? It happens all the time. Yes, it does. It really does. And it's usually the same franchises. And so we're not alone in being a poorly run franchise.
Starting point is 00:09:35 Well, you can't, the way that the structure of the money works, we weren't going to be able to make a deal where we take some of it on and then work a deal for an eighth round. I mean, that just wasn't going to happen. Yeah, I agree. We would never get an eighth. But now. Yeah, I always bring the eighth up because it's the invisible pick. But now that the, now that Kyler will be a free agent, it's like, okay, the, you know, the rumor.
Starting point is 00:09:59 Vikings. The Vikings. It does seem. That's the easiest one to go to. And, well, I mean, we definitely shall see. but it's like that would be very, very interesting. Can, like the Kevin O'Connell Magic that has worked seemingly on every quarterback, not named J.J. McCarthy to the tune of great success.
Starting point is 00:10:23 If Kyler goes there and you, like, it changes, this is what I'm saying, this particular domino, you know, you know the meme where it's like the guy puts down the tiny domino and you're like, you end up somewhere that seems, Crushing a building. Completely unrelated, except, no, it was. It was Kyler got released. Now, this did this, this, this, this, this, this to this. So it will be a very fascinating butterfly effect that will have really, really large implications for the NFL and for fantasy. We just talked about it on Tuesday. We brought up Kyler's name in Minnesota and how much different we'd feel about the Minnesota offensive weapons of Kyle was the quarterback. For sure. We talked about J.J. McCarthy being the guy that got the audition that doesn't sing very well. And everyone knows that he probably shouldn't play that role. And they may give him a shot.
Starting point is 00:11:13 And I mean, I don't see them cutting or trading him. I think it will be a camp competition. I think it will probably be obvious that Kyler wins it if he was there or whoever else they sign. You've got to give your Vikings fans hope. Even if you give J.J. another shot, you've got to give them hope that you can make a pivot quickly in the year and fix your season. Now, McCarthy did, to his credit, win five consecutive games to end the year.
Starting point is 00:11:38 And his final four games, which were not complete games, because part of the knock, you're like, dude, McCarthy just keeps getting hurt over and over and over. Maybe that was very, very bad luck for one season, or I guess too, because he lost
Starting point is 00:11:54 his entire rookie season to meniscus. But that is a factor. McCarthy did play better over the final four games, but I would, I get it. I get if the Minnesota Vikings are like, that was not enough and we're going to go with Kyler Murray, which is, it's so, these situations are so wild of Arizona is like, no, Kyler Murray, you are not good enough.
Starting point is 00:12:20 Get out of here. You know what we're going to do? We are going to eat a substantial amount of money that we will continue to pay you because you're so bad for us. And then they're like, then they get to free agency and all the teams. like, oh man, Kyla Murray is available? He's better than your, he's better than just, the bottom half quarterbacks in the league.
Starting point is 00:12:42 He is clearly better. If you look at the Arizona Cardinals record, I don't have it pulled up in front of me, but he's almost 500 in games where he started on the Cardinals. And when he has missed those games, we're like four wins and 30. And one and nine with Jacoby Rosset. I mean, Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones Sam Darnel Yeah
Starting point is 00:13:03 Teams You know It's a matter of running out of Like I told my son I go you hear we cut Kyler Or we're going to cut Kyler He goes oh thank goodness I go what do you mean
Starting point is 00:13:12 He goes yeah it didn't work the last five years Why are we kind to keep trying to do it And that's exactly why he's cut Yeah It's like sunk cost fallacy You're going to keep them for two more years And fail two more times With a couple more bags of elves
Starting point is 00:13:24 I mean I don't It gets moving on I think it makes complete sense The franchise pretty much had to move on for fans are sick and tired of it. But honestly, this episode is 10 things to remember. One of the things that we could very well have had as our, you know, an 11th thing to remember is that good players drafted well to bad franchises
Starting point is 00:13:49 can turn it around when given another opportunity. You just mentioned Baker and Darnold and these guys who were top picks in the NFL draft and they, they flamed out. They didn't succeed the way that they had hoped when they were drafted, but then you look at like, okay, it didn't work out for the Jets. It didn't work out for the Browns. It didn't work out for the Cardinals. It's like always those franchises. And then lo and behold, you go to the Buccaneers, you get a team around you, and there's MVP chance. You go to the Seahawks and you have a team and a franchise around you. You win the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:14:20 It's like that Kyler could go somewhere and be really important for fantasy next year, not just himself, but also the weapons. I mean, Justin Jefferson, heck yeah, or wherever he goes. Or he could end up on the Jets. He could be on the Jets. Yes, come on Jets, do it. The Jets are the best hope for the Cardinals to get offset money. Because I feel like for him to go to the Jets, he may get more than a year. And I don't want to speak for you guys, but I feel like if he goes the Jets, you'd be like, well.
Starting point is 00:14:52 Yeah, no, I. Good luck, New York. Yeah, we've seen the movie before. We saw Justin Fields in the Jets. Right? I mean, that wasn't the reclamation project that we hoped it would be. So speaking of the Jets, they franchise tag Greece Hall. Yep, they, I mean, these franchises. This is, I had told, I told Jason in the office, I was like, here's what I need the Cardinals to do.
Starting point is 00:15:16 And this was before the Kyla Murray News broke. I'm like, I need the Cardinals to cut Kyla Murray. I need them to give Malik Willis a bag of money. Huge, like 30 million a year. I'll have Jeremiah Love with the third overall pick. So then I could just, I will wipe my hands and I will be completely removed as an Arizona Cardinal. You'll be rooting for Jeremiah Love. Oh, for fantasy, 100%. You'll be a fan.
Starting point is 00:15:41 You don't know. When the Cardinals are a top five pick again in the draft, I'll say, you don't know where Mike and I are right now. I don't care. I told Mike after he said that, I was like, dude, I had a daydream. I literally was daydreaming about this And Andy this will make you big mad I had a daydream about using this show And this platform
Starting point is 00:16:05 Look my son is Jacking Nuzi right now You can leave a team No no no no That's small potatoes Andy To lose than that To lead a revolution To tell people across this great country
Starting point is 00:16:22 That you do not have to be holding to stupid idiot managers because of where you live or are born. Why do I owe Bidwell Jack freaking squat? He's stupid. I don't know. All I know about him is he's a bad owner and manager. I should not be
Starting point is 00:16:39 loyal to him. He has done nothing to earn it. Okay. I hope. And I want ever, I don't want to leave the Cardinals. I want all of us to leave the Cardinals. I want tens of thousands of people around here to just say, done. This is why you're a big Brazil fan in the World Cup. Huh? Huh? Yeah. You leave the USA and you go for Brazil, right? I have reasons.
Starting point is 00:17:04 You can't go to country. Why can't you go to country? Because it's a man. This is a bidwell. Bill would. Michael. Billwell. All the bidwells, but Michael Bidwell is the owner of the Cardinals. We don't want you. It's like, it's not even the city or the state where I live. That's not ours. It's not theirs. Get out. And we're when they're good one time in the next 30 years, you don't get to celebrate. Oh, no. Oh, no.
Starting point is 00:17:29 You know what I'll do? I don't know 15 times the next 30 years? Mike, didn't you go to the Super Bowl in Tampa when the Cardinals were there? Yeah. Okay, why? Because they had earned it. We are. We are Cardinals fans.
Starting point is 00:17:39 I'm just saying, I'm just saying the whole thing where I was born here, I was raised here, and so therefore I have to give my allegiance to a bad king. You know what I mean? Like, that's what it is. If you, you don't have to give your allegiance to bid, Well, people are fans of their home team while hating a lot of the parts of it. You just want them to succeed because they're your home team.
Starting point is 00:18:00 That's all. But we know. There are very few franchises where you're proud of the every piece of the management. Of course. All teams make mistakes. And you can't just like, so what are you going to do? You're going to go root for like another winner? Just pick a winner?
Starting point is 00:18:15 No, I'll just play fantasy. I'll just play fantasy. So you're leaving all allegiance to NFL. To fandom. This is what you feel like you have to send a message to Michael. I think I would do a case. I'm not going to get in your way of sending a message. You do what you want to do.
Starting point is 00:18:28 That's where I'm, I'm still a Cardo's fan, but I'm like. But we also know that you don't know what Rudy is. You don't know what rooting is. Good point. So I'm not really worried about you. But what is it say when you know, it's like, oh, I got one foot out the door, right? I got two feet out the door, so I'm not sure where I'm back anymore. You're not even in the room.
Starting point is 00:18:44 I'm not in the room. My hand is still holding the door. You can be in the room with two feet out of the door. Oh, you're playing a little of, uh. Like my hands on the on the, the door. You know, I'm like leaning on the door frame, but I'm standing outside. What does Michael Biddle have to do to like bring you? Sell the team.
Starting point is 00:19:01 That's what he has to do. Okay. Somebody needs to hear any more of this. Breeze Hall. Oh, people are loving it. Breeze Hall to the Jets. This is a situation where they open the door for Breece Hall. They're like, get on out of here.
Starting point is 00:19:12 And then he tries to walk and they've chained him to the room. I mean, they hate this guy. And he's like, can't you let me leave? They say they're working on a long-term deal. Okay. This is not good for Brayle and Allen. on dynasty managers. No. They put the version of it where he can technically go out and try to get a contract for someone else. Wait, they did the transition tag? I thought it was a franchise tag.
Starting point is 00:19:33 I mean, that is a franchise tag. No, but you specifically say... You cannot do that with a franchise tag. You can only do that with a specific... Yeah. With what they gave Daniel Jones. Right. The transition tag. Right. I'm just saying you have like a, basically a hierarchy of options for who you franchise and how you franchise them. I don't know if it's technically called a franchise tag, but the transition, if you transition tag someone, that is using your, your franchise tag on that player. But that would require another team, not only signing briefs, but then sending two first round picks. So he's not going anywhere for sure. He is a jet, and that is unfair to him. He came out and said, hey, I don't mind betting on myself. So, hey, the good news for fantasy,
Starting point is 00:20:11 he's in a contract year. Show me the money. Yeah. Transition tag for Daniel Jones. It comes in at $6 million cheaper than the quarterback franchise tag. So the transition tag is going to save them some money. Jones can go out and give an offer sheet. The Colts would have a right to match. But it seems like Daniel Jones will be there. You talk about Domino's falling. Daniel Jones not being on the free open market is a significant
Starting point is 00:20:33 deal. And then we got two more pieces of news. One of them. One's breaking right now. One of them is big news yesterday. The Bears, I mean, Drew Dolman, Pro Bowl Center for the Bears' incredible offensive line at 27 years old who signed an extension last offseason.
Starting point is 00:20:49 He's retiring. Bears' Twitter spent the entire morning. thinking that was the day they were getting Max Crosby. All the betting odds were like, we're the favorite. Something's coming down. And then they're like so excited. And it's like, boom, you lost your role. Young Center.
Starting point is 00:21:05 That was awful. Star Center. So that's huge. And I think there was reports, I don't know the name, but they're already like bringing in other centers to talk to right now. Also, I guess this is breaking news. It is. As of right now. Breaking news.
Starting point is 00:21:23 Huge trade. the Rams have traded a first round pick in this draft, 29, a fifth, a sixth, and a 2027 third, which is a lot of their picks. They, you know, less need is always, I don't care about them picks. Yeah, he's the, you and Brooks of dynasty managers. They're like, let me go get a vet. I don't want picks. They trade, he traded all those picks to the chiefs for, uh, all pro cornerback,
Starting point is 00:21:47 Trent McDuffie. They were, um, apparently won Trent McDuffie short last year from, and they might have been. They might have been a trim Duffy short. I mean, they were able to score on the Seahawks, no problem, but they couldn't stop them. Yeah, that's a big trade. This is probably a great trade for both teams. Chiefs are going to end up with another first round pick here. It really probably is because the Chiefs let go, their offensive tackle that played, like, started the whole season.
Starting point is 00:22:11 So they have to replace a tackle in the draft. They've got the ninth pick. A lot of people are saying, oh, if Jeremiah Love is there, they would grab them. Hard to imagine that when they... More flexibility. Yeah, exactly. It allows them to fill other needs. And they, I mean, they're at the point where they have to just, like, do the rebuild so that they can go for three more.
Starting point is 00:22:34 Yes. Where, like, don't just. For the chiefs. Yeah, yes. Like, don't be, don't be splotchy and like, hey, we're sort of good. Like, no, man, like, rip it down real quick. So you can do a real quick rebuild because you have, you got Mahomes. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:22:47 So, like, you can still tread water with Mahomes, make the playoffs with my homes. You can rebuild really, really fast. So trading, one, a great player. but into all of those options. That's, man. Yeah. All right. We're going to take a break and we'll jump into 10 Things to Remember.
Starting point is 00:23:09 All right. It's time. Big episode. 10 Things to Remember from 2025. Let's get into it. Don't forget to remember these things. All right. It looks like I am going to kick us off with number 10.
Starting point is 00:23:31 All right. Number 10. It is titled My Players. are going to get hurt, a.k.a. draft like a general manager, not like a fan. Look, injuries, this is, these are a foregone conclusion in fantasy football. You have to embrace it in spite of what Mike and CMC managed to pull off this year. Sometimes there's magic.
Starting point is 00:23:57 Yeah, sometimes Mike can turn on the madden. Dark magic. Mike turns on the setting in Madden. The injuries are now off. But historically, that's not the case. Look, 98% of all NFL players show up on an injury report every year. So you're talking about everybody. It doesn't mean that being fortunate with injuries is not going to determine success for fantasy football.
Starting point is 00:24:17 Obviously, it does. Mike, I mean, he stayed healthy. You won a championship. The NFL- I didn't stay healthy, but McCaffrey did. No, no, McCaffrey did. But in the NFL, it's the same way. The final four teams in the NFL that made it to, you know, the final four,
Starting point is 00:24:33 Seattle, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, and the NFC, 25 players combined on the injured reserve. The Cardinals had 22 alone on their team. So injuries make a big difference in the NFL as well. But when you look at fantasy football, I just want to give you some context. On average, three of the top 10 players drafted every year in fantasy miss four plus games. This year, we got a little bit more lucky with the top 10 this year,
Starting point is 00:25:00 but look at the second and third round. When you go outside the top 10 basically, Malik Neighbors, 13 games, Nico two, Jacobs two, Puka one, Brian Thomas three, A-chan one, Drake London five, Buck Irving seven, A.J. Brown, two, Brock Bowers five, Lamar Jackson, four, it keeps going. Hampton, eight, Daniels 10, Tyreek 13, Kittle 6. Those are the like sequential picks in the second and third round. You need to start building your fantasy football team like a general manager does in the NFL. they are building their rosters not based on perfect health.
Starting point is 00:25:36 It looks the best, right? We love it when we put the perfect starting lineup together. And what you'd love to be able to do on paper is build the perfect starting lineup that looks amazing. Lock them in and then spend your entire bench on upside, right? Not a player that's already established and guaranteed production, but a bunch of upside players. But general managers in the NFL, they build their teams on attrition. They understand that they're going to miss players. Now, maybe not 22, like Arizona.
Starting point is 00:26:01 You can't build a team strong enough to withstand 22 injuries on Arizona are on injured reserve. But it is obviously bidwell. Yeah. He Nancy Kerrigan them. Have you seen the grades for our training facilities? The chain facilities may play a role as well. We didn't put them next to a power plant, but it's not good. But look, don't overstack your bench with all upside stashes at the expense of playable depth.
Starting point is 00:26:28 I feel like Mike has been pretty. Pretty gifted in this department for years where he builds rosters that I look at. And what I actually, I think the most actionable thing here is let's say you put, you make good picks later in the draft. And you put some nice bench assets, free agency or, you know, you go onto the waiver wire. You add some pieces and they perform. That's my moment generally where you flip them into. I flip them. I take a starter and a bench player that's performing and I try to turn them into somebody better.
Starting point is 00:26:59 And I do it all the way through the bench. then I use the bench to fill up on more waiver-wire pickups. I think that for me, my thing to remember is I need to adjust that a little bit and really keep some solid startable assets, not look at them all as trade chips and trade bait, and really plan on those injuries to happen so that I can survive. Mike talks about another thing in years past, you know, kind of getting through the season in different phases, right? There's different parts of the season that you need to get through.
Starting point is 00:27:28 Players are going to get hurt, survive every window of the season to make the playoffs. If you want to consolidate right around the trade deadline a little bit, if that makes sense, you've survived a bunch of weeks, sure. But don't just stack your bench with upside stashes. And then all of a sudden you've got to put a player in that has no potential to play. It's a rookie that hasn't started. You need to be able to step in. Those guys are going to get hurt. It's a guarantee. Yeah, I mean, Mike had like Jalen Warren and Charbonnet just kind of resting behind it. I'm like, why isn't he trading these guys? It's the, you know, like if you hear people talk about the zero rb build like it's anti-fragile yeah yeah exactly that's what it is is going on the
Starting point is 00:28:07 the philosophy of that these players will get stronger as the the year goes on because i know that the guys drafted in the first round or they're going to miss time uh so it's being being aware of that i think the you know combining that tip andy with the the the understanding the nuances and the differences the time of year what your team needs through the first four weeks and then what you need through the next four. It all holistically plays a part in creating your best chance at winning a championship. No, it makes sense. And I'm just looking from picks 11 through 406. So I think that's 28 picks. Six of the 28 didn't miss a game. So you're going to miss time. So remember it and plan accordingly. all right time to move on number nine so be willing to stand your ground on your rookie takes
Starting point is 00:29:08 this is a chance to do no it's actually i have a couple different ways i want to talk about this because it's rookies are it's such a wild and like it's not a straightforward path for rookies in fantasy football. And yet if you've been playing, you know, for at least five years or so, you understand that rookies are often a humongous part of fantasy football success. Now, because rookies get better as time goes on and then like the guys who are making impact, impact players over the second half and in the playoffs, a lot of time we see that it's a rookie, but it can take time.
Starting point is 00:29:54 and this is where it's difficult because to get those players on your team, if you want to draft them, you've got to draft them early. But you're drafting them early knowing that there's a chance that this might, may not start working at least for like two months into the season. Trayvion Henderson was it, you know, through the first month of the season, it was an absolute disaster. And then through the first two months, a catastrophe. You know, he was on our show.
Starting point is 00:30:24 So week six, we bring up like drop candidates. People wanted to drop Trayvion Henderson. And it was, I don't really have a, like I can't convince you not to drop this player who's not getting any opportunity. It's all Ramandre, all this. And then, of course, Ramandre misses some time. And then you have the magic there right in the middle of the season where Trayvion Anderson is winning weeks by himself. You know, from week nine on, he was the running back nine averaging almost. 17 fantasy points per game.
Starting point is 00:30:57 And then that span week 9 through 12 with no remandre. I mean, it was it was ludicrous the points he was putting up. Tederoa McMillan. It was a slower start for him. And then he ends up being the offensive rookie of the year. It started out slow, but the target share was there. And in fact, he was one of six rookie wide receivers over the last decade to finish with a 26 plus percent of the targets. And it just, it can take time.
Starting point is 00:31:27 So that's why I say when you draft those rookies, it's hard because you've got to draft them early, but you know that you're drafting them for a certain time of the season. Of course, you want them to hit right away, which does happen sometimes, but you've got to be ready. And then I also wanted to talk about this from the standpoint of dynasty rookie drafts are coming up. You do not have to be beholden to this is how you're like, I'm the 105.
Starting point is 00:31:54 I'm slotted for this player. It's okay. It's okay to take chances on the guys that you prefer because it's fantasy football. It's wild, man. Stuff goes sideways. It goes haywire all the time. And you're looking at the, like, oh, well, this wide receiver got drafted in the top of the second. I had the 108, so I couldn't possibly take him.
Starting point is 00:32:20 Just do it. You're like, because you know what? If I draft that player, everyone's going to be. make fun of me. Yeah, you ever looked at the... They're going to mock my bet. Ever looked at rookie drafts? And I'm going to, they're going to hurt my feelings and I'm going to feel real ashamed that I did that. And they're telling you how stupid. I'm going to take Roy's Freeman because they told me to. Right. You just... No, man, if you don't want to take that guy, don't take
Starting point is 00:32:37 him. Take someone else. It's, it's okay to withstand the, the peer pressure of, you have to take this guy right here. You ever seen the NFL draft? And there, there is a really important distinction here because I think it is important that we say it is totally acceptable and good to mock and make fun of people. Oh, of course. That's the game. Against the game. Grain. That's what you want to do.
Starting point is 00:33:05 Now, if you're the person getting mocked, you have to ask yourself one of two questions. One, was this a player I believed in, and I like this pick, and I'm getting mocked, and so I don't care. Great. Or, why am I getting mocked? Oh, I had no clue. I didn't know. Then it's like, look at yourself. I'm saying, don't Raiders this thing and draft a kicker in the first round.
Starting point is 00:33:27 That's not what I'm saying. I thought you were going with. Wasn't it the Raiders? Yes. Who just drafted two years ago. They drafted the wrong human being. They called the guy with the same name that wasn't the one they wanted to draft in the third round. That might go in your bucket of bad franchises to do bad things.
Starting point is 00:33:46 Yes. So I'm saying rookies can take some time, but also specifically for your rookie draft. man pick the players you want it's it's okay because you maybe you're wrong maybe you're wrong on that player but follow your own path don't don't let the don't let the peer pressure and consensus bully you into taking a pick you don't want to make it's extremely painful if you don't take the player you have conviction about you take somebody else due to consensus so much worse and then that player turns out to be something great because you know you didn't stand on it so it makes sense Number eight. This one is a question on trends in the NFL. My question is, is the famous sophomore leap for wide receivers actually dead? This is over the, this is what I was talking about at the beginning of the show where in 2021 I wrote an article.
Starting point is 00:34:41 It was basically a cheat code. You looked at the previous five and 10 years. And that year two wide receiver was like, just draft them. Even if you're not sure, even if you don't believe, The year two is when most of these guys are really breaking out. Now, what we've seen over this last five years and the last decade is that more and more frequent, is it, that wide receiver ones break out in year one. The alpha's come out and they get the opportunity from day one to just be on the field at all times. And it has had a reciprocal effect on the year two breakout.
Starting point is 00:35:16 I was noticing this trend over the last couple years, but this last year really put a, put a nail in the coffin. So in 2021, you look at the wide receivers that were drafted in the first eight rounds, five of six of them improved in their sophomore year. That's great. 83% fires like, yeah. Sophomore bump. Yeah, the sophomore bump.
Starting point is 00:35:36 The article was right. But then as time has gone on, 2022, only three of six improved. And some of those like Jehan Dodson. He was the hotness from his rookie year. He went hardcore the other way. He went hardcore the other way. Christian Watson went down. Garrett Wilson, who was the number one drafted there, he had a down year, didn't even score 10 fantasy points per game that season.
Starting point is 00:35:57 The following year, the 2023 class, two of five improved. So now we're sub 50% actually being better than they were their rookie season. Certainly it rebounded last year. It certainly did. It rebounded all the way to zero of the top five improved in the 2024 class. So, Malik neighbors, BTJ, McConkey, Marv and Xavier worthy. This one was brutal.
Starting point is 00:36:24 They all, I mean. They burns too bright. And so that is part of it, right? You can't just be like, here's a trend. It's like, here's a trend. Why? Part of it is. They dominated as rookie.
Starting point is 00:36:33 Yeah, exactly. They dominated rookie years. Ladd McConkey, BTJ, and Malik neighbors were all fantasy wide receiver ones. They were top 12 in their rookie season. So it makes sense that it's harder for them to take that step up and, and go. but it's happening more and more frequently. Now you look at this year. And I guess what this is to me, what I want to remember is that I have gone into old drafts, you know, three years ago, four years ago, where even if I really didn't believe in a player, if he's a year two wide receiver
Starting point is 00:37:06 at a place where, you know, I'm just pulling the trigger. I'm just shooting on probabilities. This year you got, you know, Ibuka, who was the hotness this year coming into year two? Is he going to get better. Mike Evans might leave. There's going to be a lot of reasons. I'll bet if Mike Evans leaves. He's going to shoot up draft boards. People will forgive him and be in. Matthew Golden, sucked this rookie year, had all the opportunity, but he's still a first round wide receiver
Starting point is 00:37:31 on a good offense, year two wide receiver. Go all in. You know, Luther Burton was the hotness at the end of the season. It was like, wow. How many guys can be the hotness? Well, there's different parts of the season. You know, it's like if you're in Arizona or if you're in New York, there's summer and there's winter. Right.
Starting point is 00:37:48 That's what I'm saying. But just some are here, though. So I don't think it is quite the guarantee. And I don't, I wanted this to be a little shorter and have this be a question and a conversation piece on whether or not we should stop just automatically assuming that in year two, these players take a leap forward. That doesn't necessarily always happen. However, the data is starting to say year three, which is, it has been more and more frequent. That was JSN. That was Zayflowers after a down year two got better in year three.
Starting point is 00:38:18 some of these guys are starting to you know even somehow Puka was significantly better in year three even though he was great already but I'm not sold on just saying that in year two they're always going to get better as a wide receiver I mean unfortunately and it's a
Starting point is 00:38:34 cop out to a degree but I mean trends are based on context you talked about how insane the numbers were last year for those guys my league neighbors hurt or not was probably not beating 146 points per game or was going to be tough to do it. Brian Thomas Jr., certainly.
Starting point is 00:38:50 I mean, those numbers, Ladd-McConkie all alone there, it was going to be really, really hard. So there's going to be nuance. There's going to be, what do you define improving as? And how much does that matter in the equation? So, you know,
Starting point is 00:39:05 there are players that, you talked about it, Luther Burden, it's like, that's not a difficult one to see him having a better sophomore year. Because he barely got it rolling. Slow start. I mean, he really didn't ever get it cooking for, you know, consecutive of weeks. So that one's an easy one to see. Now, you know, Obuka, a lot of variables in the equation. Matthew Golden, he better improve or he's in the UFL. So it's good to look over a long period of time and
Starting point is 00:39:31 see what the trends are so you don't just lock into a strategy that is eventually going to burn you. Tetaroa McMillan was really good as a rookie. And so he's the one. And you look and it's like, well, he's going to take that leap forward. And he's, He's being drafted almost as a wider receiver one. Right now, it's too early to know. But he's the wider receiver 13. It reminds me a lot of his comp for me was Drake London. Well.
Starting point is 00:39:56 He showed. And it was like year two, it took year three before he really is. It's a perfect transition to the next one. All right. Number seven. Which is bad teams ruin good players. Yeah. And bad owners ruin good franchises.
Starting point is 00:40:11 Yeah, bad teams ruin good players. Ask yourself, if I remove the player's name, and just describe their situation, right, like a new quarterback, an uncertain offense, a transition year. You've got to ask yourself, would I draft that player in the first two rounds or at their ADP? And usually you would say no if you remove the player's name from the situation. So I'm going to describe a couple situations to you,
Starting point is 00:40:32 and you tell me how in you are. All right. First one, a wide receiver on an offense with the fifth starting, different starting quarterback in five years, with an offensive coordinator that you openly hate. on a team who has fewer scoring opportunities inside the red zone than anybody in the entire league. Does that sound like they're worth the risk of a top two
Starting point is 00:40:55 or a top two round pick? No, that sounds like a bad bet. That bad bet we made for years with Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson was that bad bet. We did it in 2023. He was drafted as the wide receiver 9. It was Aaron Rogers. It was Nathaniel Hackett, that combination.
Starting point is 00:41:12 we still win in on him at ADP. We're at Hackett now. Yeah, I know. Yeah, he's here. In 2024, we did it again with Garrett Wilson. Wide receiver 7 off the board. Aaron Rogers was the quarterback. We didn't have a lot of confidence in that.
Starting point is 00:41:29 Last year, you finally got an adjustment in the ADP. We wizened up a little bit. How bad were the Jets? The Jets, over the last three years, dead last in those red zone plays. Tied or trailing on 93% of offensive snaps. You have to pay. attention to the context these guys get drafted
Starting point is 00:41:44 into. Let me do one from this year. Older quarterback who was cast off from his former team. New head coach, born before the invention of the transistor radio, offensive coordinator who hasn't been in the NFL in more than a decade. Oh, wait. We drafted two players
Starting point is 00:42:00 this year in the first two rounds of fantasy. Obviously, that was Ashton Genty and Brock Bowers. Did not work out for fantasy managers in the, you know. Bowers did. Other than the injury. Yeah, I mean.
Starting point is 00:42:15 Second half, he was very good. Yeah, I mean, I think there was still some underwhelming vibes with some of what he was able to do. You know, you started the year before the injury, and maybe that was, you know, playing through it and stuff like that. But it was, it was tough. It was tough when you have to look at all of these risk factors, quarterback transitions and changes,
Starting point is 00:42:39 offensive coordinators, lack of faith in a coach, and then say to yourself, well, it's all just going to work out because this player is talent. We did this. We did this game with a lot of players that we liked over the years. We did it with Tara McLaurin.
Starting point is 00:42:51 We did it with DJ Moore. We did it. You know, if you don't have all those externals, you have a lot more to overcome and you just need to factor that in and ask yourself whether the risk outweighs the draft cost. Yes. Is the team environment so completely disgusting and gross
Starting point is 00:43:08 that it can ruin a great player? And it is very possible. to do that. And so you need to be careful. I need to be careful. And when the draft happens and these sexy players start going to teams that we don't have confidence in, you need to make sure that those situations are not going to destroy them. This is where the transition from Tetaroa McMillan is a year two watch. I love Ted. I love Ted. I love Ted. I think he is great. I think he's a good point. He's going into year two. It's not a guaranteed leap forward. He's on a team that you don't expect to be great. They don't work better than we thought for sure, but the quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:43:40 but the quarterback is not prolific, at the very least, we can all agree on that. Correct. Yeah. So it puts a little pause in there. Obviously, the Jets project to be bad. Who are the other teams that, like, you think about? I mean, Cleveland on offense right now. Oh, okay.
Starting point is 00:43:53 Yeah, you draft somebody, Cleveland on offense, Arizona on offense without a quarterback. The nice thing about the- Minnesota, if it's JJ and no one else. The nice thing about the Browns is they've done us a service, and they have no one really worth drafting. You know what I mean? They're like, let's not have a fantasy. Judkins.
Starting point is 00:44:07 Yeah, depending on the injury and his timeline back, yeah. how dare you Harold Fanon Yeah you are you are Mr. Fanon I do I do like Fanon over the other guys But we'll talk about whether I'm Mr. Fanon or not That's actually why we have Fanon lower than the other two Of the sophomore tight ends
Starting point is 00:44:24 Let's take a break and we'll we'll keep going All right we're back in the 10 Things to Remember here we go Number six So speaking of philosophies that Change over the course of time is I am now firmly in this area. You know, we have dabbled, talked about this strategy. I don't know just how like rubber stamped I would have said that this strategy was.
Starting point is 00:44:56 You know, when we started this show, you don't do this. No. And now I'm like, you know what? When you leave your draft in a single quarterback league and you draft two quarterbacks, I think that's okay. I think it's not only is it okay I think it there are situations where it is in fact a very smart thing to do you know just you're you're increasing your odds of
Starting point is 00:45:21 finding a difference maker for that single quarterback position the opportunity cost is like okay do I hit on one of these sleeper wide receivers who is he's fourth on his depth chart or it's the it's the RB3 on a team you know where we've seen great returns for that. It's a game of probability. Just always remember that for fantasy football. There is no binary black or white.
Starting point is 00:45:49 Everything is great. Everything is probability. And the way that things have gone lately, hitting on a later round quarterback, where that guy becomes a potential difference maker for you, the odds keep going up every single year, where it used to be, these are the quarterbacks who will be good, we've nailed it,
Starting point is 00:46:08 We know they're going to be great. But it's like this past year, you know, you had going late, DAC, who, DAC just always goes late. And you just just always be grabbing Dak as a second quarterback. But Caleb Williams made the jump. Drake May, you know, almost the league MVP, was going in the 12th round as about the 18th quarterback or so. It's a strategy where it felt like a misuse of,
Starting point is 00:46:38 of your resources, but now I think that it can be really the move that you need to go to. And I'm not talking when you've drafted Josh Allen, when you've invested heavily one of your very, very high lucrative draft picks on a quarterback. We're talking if you get a guy in the middle, why not take a player late? Because so many times now we're seeing those are the quarterbacks
Starting point is 00:47:03 who are taking the jump and they're becoming the player that it's a week-to-week thing. It does fold into the, all your players get hurt situation. Yeah. I mean, that does happen at the quarterback position. They're not immune from it, obviously. So, but saying that that's okay, that is a transition from where we used to be. Yes, it is. For sure.
Starting point is 00:47:21 Number five. All right. This one will affect Fanon a little bit. The tight end dead zone is deader than ever. It's all of them. It's just the whole position, people. There isn't a dead zone. There's some studs, and then there's death.
Starting point is 00:47:40 I don't know if everybody listening would understand what you mean by a dead zone when you talk. We've talked about R.B. Dead zones. Maybe we should talk through that. So the tight end dead zone has, at times, you know, changes based on the year. But, you know, the fifth, sixth round tight ends historically have always been just terrible bad. It's just awful. Waste of picks and you're ruining opportunities to draft relevant players at other positions. but what I'm calling the tight-in dead zone, especially this last year, is if you're not
Starting point is 00:48:15 Trey McBride, I mean, you could throw George Kittle in there, but he got injured and Bowers in there who got injured. Everyone else sucked. The difference between the Titan 2, this is fantasy finish at the end of the year, Titan 2 and Titan 12 was 1.3 points per game. It's irrelevant people. It is completely, that's the tightest spread in six years. Fanon was good down the stretch.
Starting point is 00:48:42 He was on the waiver wire. End of the year. Loveland was like, oh, hey, he's breaking out. Waverwire pickup. He was drafted, and then he was a waiver wire pickup because he was averaging like 2.3 fancy points per game. Kyle Pitts, the number two tight in. Waiver wire.
Starting point is 00:48:55 Dallas Goddard was a waiver wire pick. And here's the thing. So basically, my strategy is this. What I'm going to remember is I would love to draft, Tray McBride. I would love to draft Brock Bowers. And then I'm checking out. I'm not going to fall victim to, oh, this player's good, that player's good.
Starting point is 00:49:13 I like this name. I like that name. I'm going to let everyone else go. Here's why. Leporta was the Titan 4 drafted last year. He was drafted over wide receivers and running backs like Jameson, DeAndre Swift. They made differences. Kelsey and Hawkinson were the next
Starting point is 00:49:29 tight ends drafted a round later. They were drafted over Chris Olave and Jalen Warren. They made impacts on fantasy football. Mark Andrews was next. Drafted over Travis E.T.N. and Emeka Ibuka. Mark, Evan Ingram was next. Drafted over Judkins and Giovante Williams. Like, we didn't love Giovante Williams. There's a reason he was in the ninth, tenth, round. But there's opportunity. There's lots of misses in those rounds. But I want to take shots at these guys who actually could make an impact. These tight ends in the middle and late rounds, they're not making an impact.
Starting point is 00:50:01 Najoku drafted over Scataboo and Pitman, who were looking good. So for me, give me Trey McBride and Brock Bowers, and then I'll see you on the waiver wire. I'm going to keep taking shots at all the running backs and wide receivers. I can stock up. Maybe I'll grab that second quarterback like Mike's saying. And it's going to be okay. You're going to be okay because the gap, the difference between these guys, they're really not all that crazy. Never forget David Najoku, T.J. Hawkinson, back to back in our league of record fifth round.
Starting point is 00:50:30 Yeah, I mean. Wasted picks. to lead them from the earth. Take a shot on someone that could actually break out. These tight ends aren't going to be it. And, and, you know, I know Tyler Warren had looked great before the Daniel Jones injury. That's great. He was 10.7 fantasy points of game. That would have been pretty good. But that's a, that's 0.4 points more than what Dallas Goddard scored. Yeah. No, no, you can find value. Yeah. So number four. Well, I'll keep it short. I'll make it simple here. But this is, number four thing to remember, a good waiver pickup is a good waiver pickup.
Starting point is 00:51:03 Sometimes we ignore players on the waiver wire because we think we have those positions figured out on the team. This goes into the staying water. This goes into acknowledging that injuries are going to happen. Player performances, the rookies that Mike talked about, their performances change over time. There were a lot of players that performed really, really well last year. They were sitting on the waiver wire and you might have thought to yourself, I don't need that guy because I have this guy. Harold Fanon was rostered on 6% of teams in week two on the waiver wire.
Starting point is 00:51:33 If you had Brock Bowers, you were going to pass on the opportunity to pick up Harold Fanon because you had the position figured out. Well, an injury happened and you didn't, and that would have been a big, big difference because he was the tight in five for the rest of the season. Same thing went with, remember how hot Baker Mayfield started? This goes to your point with two quarterbacks. If you had Baker Mayfield at the beginning of the season, if you had Bo Nix because you invested draft capital in him,
Starting point is 00:51:55 You're like, I got my position figured out. Well, Drake May was a streamer in week two. Like, I know he got drafted in a lot of leagues. Not every league. Right. And maybe he got dropped after they lost in week one. There are opportunities on the waiver wire, and you might pass on a guy because you think you have the position figured out.
Starting point is 00:52:12 This is a way of saying, like, NFL GMs, they go into the draft, and they draft position over neat or over best on the board. You need to go best on the board sometimes on the waiver wire, even when you have a player that is doing the job that position this week because things changed too much. You might have thought you had plenty of wide receivers and you passed on Parker Washington or Alec Pierce in week 10 waivers where they were on less than 30% of teams. Both of those guys were basically wide receiver ones from week 10 on for your roster. If they're good, if you believe in them, just because you got to figure it out,
Starting point is 00:52:47 sign them anyways. It's funny because we do this elsewhere. Rookie drafts. We have learned lessons over the years of just take the best player. Take the best player available. Yeah, you need running back, but that's, you know, he's just not, it's not as good a pick, you know, at that point in the draft, this wide receiver versus that running back. Just take the best player because it turns out it's going to help you the most, even if it's not the position you think of you. Yeah, you can, you can, if you have two amazing tight ends, that's fine. You can figure out what you want to do with that at that point. There's good problems to have and bad problems to have.
Starting point is 00:53:19 Yeah, agreed. Number three. targets still have to be earned. And I want to bring this one up because we talk about young breakout, hopeful wide receivers, you know, draft capital opportunity on a good NFL team. So this is, it almost is a, you know, it's just an inverse of what you were talking about, Andy, of bad teams can ruin good players. Well, bad players going to good teams doesn't automatically turn that bad player into. to a good player.
Starting point is 00:53:55 And I promise you, I'm talking into Amir right now. So when we're talking specifically about... Talking straight to me, but whatever. No, well, people say we look like brothers. Okay. There's that whole thing. When you, this is also believing in your rookie takes. Keon Coleman, right?
Starting point is 00:54:14 Keon Coleman goes, what, 33rd in the NFL draft. Right the beginning of the second round. Kian Coleman wasn't a player that I, particularly liked my process, didn't love him. But he went in the top of the second round to Josh Allen. And that I allowed that to completely sway
Starting point is 00:54:36 where I was willing to drive Keon Coleman because of course this makes sense. They need a wide receiver. They have Josh Allen. How was this? They... A plus B. Yeah, like Stefan Diggs is gone. We need someone to soak up targets here. well did keon coleman earned targets in college no no he didn't no but now he but now it will definitely work like well like his final college season talking keon coleman targets per round run
Starting point is 00:55:07 23% which that is in that is the in the 22nd percentile mark among day two wide receivers as in he was not earning targets for a second round wide receiver and look where keon coleman's career has gone. It's been a complete disaster. Matthew Golden, first round wide receiver, team that desperately needs a wide receiver. Team, they don't draft, they don't draft guys in the first round,
Starting point is 00:55:34 and they went in on Matthew Golden. Well, Matthew Golden certainly earned targets as a prospect, right? No. His final season, targets per run, 17.7. That is the lowest of any first round wide receiver over the last decade.
Starting point is 00:55:50 Shocker, it has not worked. He wasn't able to earn targets in college. He's not earning targets now as a professional. Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs. Holy crap. Same exact thing. I did the same exact thing with Keon Coleman that I did with Worthy. I didn't like this player as a prospect.
Starting point is 00:56:06 Like the production profile, I don't, I'm just, I'm not seeing it. I'm not seeing it working. And yet Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, gets a first round wide receiver. Of course it's going to work. Because, of course, he's first round wide receiver, right? He's earning targets in college. No, 37th percentile mark for round one wide receivers. That's where Xavier Worthy was.
Starting point is 00:56:28 And it just, it hasn't worked out. So draft capital is incredibly important, incredibly important. I'm so sorry, Mike. I'm so sorry. I'm sure you had a good point. I don't know. We've just been playing around with the bookshelf. I don't know what's going on.
Starting point is 00:56:43 The bookshelf light behind you. Apparently the bookshelf was lit at one point, but it's been a while. And then I guess it turned off. And so he turned it on while you were like talking. He fixed it, right in mid-talk. And he walked back to his seat. And the second he sat down and just turned off, it was just. Our set is a work in progress right now, people.
Starting point is 00:57:00 No, they're working during the show. But good points, good points. Good points. Good points. Good answer, good answer. We did this with Tyree Kel and Kansas City as well. We'll do this. We'll do the TLDR right here.
Starting point is 00:57:12 If guys aren't earning targets in college, just because they go to the best quarterback or the second best quarterback in the league, does not automatically mean that player will start earning targets. They just, you need proof. You need proof. I don't care about your athletic traits.
Starting point is 00:57:30 I think what is, just to, I agree completely. It's something to remember. I think what is difficult for fantasy players and managers is the team's confidence in that player is persuasive.
Starting point is 00:57:43 Oh, yes. So when they spend draft capital to bring a player into an obvious need position, it is very difficult to not find a way in your brain to make that work. I mean, to some degree, that was the case with Clyde Edwards-Zaler, not looking in the Target department, but just looking in the running back department. You're like, oh, maybe I didn't love the film.
Starting point is 00:58:03 You know, you guys I don't think loved it as much. But then it was like, well, he went to Kansas City. Yeah, yeah. It's got to work. It swayed me. I had the first pick in our rookie draft that year. I freaking loved Jonathan Taylor. I was like, this is the guy.
Starting point is 00:58:17 and then Edwards Zillard goes to the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round and how do you not automatically make that guy the first pick? It would be foolish. So, I mean, everything today is just really working in a symbiotic way of all these things need to be taken into account. We're just finishing each other's sandwiches. Thank you. And it goes into this next one too. Number two.
Starting point is 00:58:44 draft class projections are real they really are we've learned this lesson over the last few years but this last year showed me so we do NFL and fantasy football when we're going through the NFL season we don't have time to just grind college film I don't at least I don't know in the season yeah in season so we're not our attention turns to prospecting right now you know we just don't have time during the season But we always hear the rumors, the whispers, the projections of a whole draft class. In 2024, it was supposed to be this great wide receiver draft class year. Oh, and then it was. I know Marvin Harrison Jr. was disappointing as a rookie. Still not bad, historically speaking, as a rookie. Malik Neighbors was a breakout. Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, just an amazing draft class, seven first round wide receivers,
Starting point is 00:59:40 most over to the last decade. That was what we heard about it. That came out to be true. Last year, we were told this is a running back draft class that's loaded and a bad wide receiver draft class. That's what we knew going into, like, I'm going to go start looking. We were told it's a running back and tightened draft class. And it really, really was. You had Gentie, Hampton, Judkins, Henderson, Harvey.
Starting point is 01:00:06 The second most total touches and yards from scrimmage for rookies over the last decade, despite major injuries to Hampton and Judkins and Scataboo. If they'd stayed healthy, it would have been, you know, the craziest rookie running back season ever. And wide receivers last year, we were told, it's kind of a down year for wide receivers. And it really kind of was. There wasn't a lot of massive production. You know, we just talked about, Tett was okay. Abuka looked like a big stud breakout and then disappeared. It just wasn't great. So what is this year? I'm going to buy into the paintbrush that's painted by the entire draft community, which is... Some are stronger here, some are stronger there.
Starting point is 01:00:50 Yes, it's different every year. And this is what this year is. This year is overall a weaker draft class in general, top to bottom. But its strength is in wide receivers. It's a very weak running back draft class and a pretty deep wide receiver draft class. And why this matters is because if you look at last year, last year is a really strong running back draft class and very deep. If you took shots on those rookies, it really did pay off.
Starting point is 01:01:18 And even the late round picks, the guys that weren't the studs, but they were just in a loaded running back draft class, Camp Scadaboo. Woody Marks had an impact at one point. Kyle Mononga at the end of the season was startable. Bill Kroski matter because it was just a really, that was the strength of that class. And then the tight ends and you had the three rookie tight ends that were due up.
Starting point is 01:01:41 Are you going to remove Mackay Lemon because he's so creepy? No, no, I do think that once the interviews are, yeah, he's, I'm a snake, man. It was, dude, his interviews. It was so creepy. His interviews are crazy. But let me, so, because that was kind of the, um, overall, you know, thought of, the Lemon's interview. It was unique. It was, it was an interesting, you, you think you're looking cool talking like this situation?
Starting point is 01:02:12 Go, go check the tape, man. I don't think you looked as cool as you thought you were going to look. However, we want wide receivers thinking they are that. Diva Town. Oh, yeah. Terrell Owens, come on down to my team. Antonio Brown, you're welcome as my starting wide receiver. Yeah, you could be crazy.
Starting point is 01:02:30 I didn't interpret that as bad because I'm like, that's a guy who when he gets in the huddle, he's going to say, throw me the ball. Throw me the ball. I'm open. I'm always open. Yeah. Don't pick up my kids from school. I'm going to tease something here.
Starting point is 01:02:44 that this has been what I've been working on the entire offseason. It is, we're going to be rolling it out to the dynasty pass at some point in time. The Felix model is a, I mean, this is, I'm so excited about this. I'm going to put out an article detailing it and information to come. But this is more data than I've ever had access to in my entire life. Machine learning, backdate tested, an incredible prospecting model to, try to project fantasy football success at the next level. Backdating it, looking at last year, it's looking really, it would have had Jackson
Starting point is 01:03:24 Dart as a 90th percentile player, Cam Moore down a little bit lower. Last year I wish I had it. Look, Caleb Johnson, he was a 26 percentile Felix score. Maybe I wish I had this last year. Okay. It's getting things right in a way that is genuinely impressing me. And when I look at just that Felix score projection, and these aren't locked in yet because we don't have, the NFL draft hasn't happened. These are projected draft capital, which is everything will change.
Starting point is 01:03:52 But just to give you an idea of the lay of the land for this coming draft class, 90 plus graded Felix score athletes from last year at wide receiver, there were two of them. This year, there are five wide receivers graded in the 90th percentile or better. 80 to 90, which is still good. last year there were five of those players in last year's draft class there's 12 so this is a loaded 17 players in this wide receiver draft class right now pre-niffel draft so that it will change um are are this is where the depth is so later in my drafts this year I'm going to be focusing on rookie wide receivers yeah you in my rookie draft in there I think it's also this draft class is deep I think we're just going to be getting though like
Starting point is 01:04:40 some strong twos. Yeah, I think it's depth more than studs. We don't have a Jamar. Well, I mean, people like I think Tyson. There's a handful of guys who could. I just think that the depth is more of a, you're going to be a short,
Starting point is 01:04:56 you'll be able to shore up that bench and have players who can go into your flex spots. All right, there's one more. Number one. I'm not reading that first one, because that's not, I mean, that's for you, Mike. Oh. But number one is to
Starting point is 01:05:11 We always want to remind people Get your league right This is the time of year To get it going Don't wait until August And be like Ah crap We didn't fix this
Starting point is 01:05:23 We're in the same situation I guess we'll think about it again next year We still got kickers Like if you got issues in your league We still got week 18 championships Take care of it right now And the note for me If you're the champ
Starting point is 01:05:36 Start plotting know what you're going to do on draft day. I've got my ideas floating around. I have applied for another mortgage so that I can... Yeah, no, no, no. So that I can fund the championship party. I'm looking forward to the draft. I'm so not.
Starting point is 01:05:55 My bank account is not looking forward to it. Man, I got to figure it out. Me and Kyle were working on some things. Some ideas are floating around, but now is the time to start thinking about it. the turds in your league. If there's a bad manager in your league that just doesn't add anything, isn't active, it's better to be a great 10-person league than a bad 12-person league with two turds.
Starting point is 01:06:19 Okay? Get rid of the bad managers. Make the changes you need to do. Do it all right now. New rules, new scoring settings. Set up a new way to communicate. Whatever you need to do, get it done. Make your league the best.
Starting point is 01:06:31 It's the one repeatable thing to remember we bring up each and every year. So that is going to do it for today's episode of the first. Fantasy Footballers podcast, you can find the Dynasty Pass, the aforementioned dynasty pass at Ultimate DraftKit.com. You weren't talking about the feline model, right? No. Mason Taylor was a hundred percentile. This is different?
Starting point is 01:06:54 The feelings. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF.F.F. Ballers.

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