Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Top 10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your Fantasy League - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/16

Episode Date: August 16, 2023

League-winning tips and advice on today’s fantasy football podcast! Andy, Mike, and Jason deliver lessons learned and actionable tips for fantasy football managers! Don’t miss this special episode! Plus, team defense and kicker draft strategies! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for August 16th, 2023. Dive into the 2023 Ultimate Draft Kit + Draft Analyzer! UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on Twitter Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Check out today's sponsors: News & Notes presented by USAA. Visit https://USAA.com/Insurance Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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You must wield the UDK and send your opponents back to the Shadows. You shall not pass on this chance to send your reed mates into the deep fly you fools to autumn draft kit.com welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers Podcast, Wednesday, August 16th. 22 days until kickoff. Beautiful. 22 days of fantasy football drafts. Tilting. Injuries.

My friend, there are far more than 22 days of tilting ahead of us. We're just in it right now. Yeah, this is when we... You tack 100 days. This is when we don't tilt. This is where you're undefeated. You're undefeated until kickoff. You haven't lost a game.

And hopefully, you're drafting late enough where you're not losing players either. Yeah, we're in one draft right now. A real slow family draft. Because if we don't start the family draft about 22 days before kickoff, it won't get done in time. No, it's slow did you see who i picked this morning yeah yeah i did uh i believe it was the bijan robinson experience for jason moore that's right i'm on the clock my son was my son was picking directly before you and he came up to me and he said, do you believe in B. John Robinson?

Because he was thinking about the pick, and I go, yeah, I do. And he goes, I just don't trust rookies. Oh, man. So I think he went Derek Henry over B. John. He did. The juxtaposition of knowing your son. Just young people. Yeah.

Like, hmm. Yeah. He asked me who I work in the field professionally. I just say like a younger kid saying I don't trust that young person out there is pretty funny. Have you thought about showing him the show that we do and he can know like how good rookie running backs can be. I he's not a fan of the show. we do and he can know like how good rookie running max can be. I,

he's not a fan of the show. Oh man. Yeah. He unsubscribed long ago. Yeah. It's because of his dad. Oh boy. Oh boy.

Um, we have a great show for you today. Oh, happy Wednesday, everybody. Oh, it keeps going. Yeah. It really should never stop.

Yeah, that was requested on X from X.com. Look, I can't do it. I just can't. You can't make the move? It's really hard. They still have not. No, they have. The link's flying out. Mike, you shared a tweet post yesterday, and it was X.com.

Yeah, but when you click on it, it changes to Twitter.com. Oh, okay. All right. They can't fully commit yet. It takes a long time to make a transition to a single letter of the alphabet. I don't know if you knew that. Yeah, the Ultimate Draft Kit available now. We're giving away an Ultimate Draft Kit for life,

along with the Derrick Henry signed jersey, T. Higgins signed mini helmet. All you have to do to enter, go to ultimatedraftkit.com, pick up the UDK by this Friday. We will be having a live stream at 6 p.m. Eastern on Friday. And if you are one of the people that picked it up before that time you will be eligible to win a udk for the rest of your natural life and science they're making advances i mean this could be you might live to be 150 you might live to be 175 do you know how many udks that is i was say, if you make the transition to cyborg.

Oh, no. I think we will still honor. Will we honor it if what percentage of their body has to be still flesh? Ooh. You got to. Still flesh. I think you got to be 51% human. So if it's more than 50?

Yeah. If you go 51% machine, that will null and void the agreement. Is that in the contract? Yeah. The cyborg clause? It's really the only clause in the whole thing, though. It is the contract. Must be 51% or greater.

Flesh. Flesh, yes. Thank you. Yeah, you have to say flesh. At the FF Ballers over on Twitter and X and whatever else it is called, thecommunityisjo jointhefoot.com. Thank you for joining us today. This is a big episode.

It's one of our fan favorites each and every year. In a lot of ways, it grows more difficult to pull off each and every year. This is the ninth season of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. This is the ninth episode where we've done the top ten tips and tricks to win your league. It is a very valuable episode. We spend time thinking about new, powerful, impactful tips, tricks, information that can get you to the front of your league.

And we're going to reveal those on today's show. Should be very exciting. The quick question today, I don't like it. I don't like it one bit. Where's the DST and kicker ranking show? Look, this one's from Holland Pack on YouTube. And I know, Holland Pack, you are the one who asked this question, but you don't even want this yourself. No one wants this. Nobody.

You want shows dedicated to your two final picks? Brooks, what's the real question you have for us here? All right, guys, what's your strategy when it comes to drafting defenses and kickers? My strategy when drafting defenses and kickers, I will take the defenses part. It is to look at the early season schedule and combine that with teams that I believe in their defenses.

So I generally won't end up with one of the top two or three defenses drafted, but then I will hone in on that early season matchup, and then I'm going to stream defenses the rest of the season if I was so lucky to have stumbled into an every week defense then more power to me but that's my strategy with the defense yeah and usually you're going to go in and what we obviously have the rankings for you on the website we've got them in the ultimate draft kit as well that you you know you're going to go in targeting a handful of defenses you look at those early you know strength of schedule yeah the strength of schedule look at the first for me I look at the first two weeks I mean if if it goes longer than that huzzah great but really I'm streaming the position so I just want to get off

to a good first two weeks it just so happens that some of the defenses that you want to target in general, like if you took strength of schedule out, also this season have a really nice opening schedule. I'm talking about the 49ers and the Eagles. The Eagles start with the Patriots and the Vikings. I think that you're going to have a lot of good fantasy points in those matchups and then the Niners they start with the Steelers and then the Rams and then the Giants and then the Cardinals I think that's like a really nice stretch run so maybe you pull the trigger you know around earlier on the 49ers if you if you want the chance to have a plug-and-play season long. Is the start against the Cardinals a hot tip already this year?

I think it's going to be a good one. The Clayton Toon experience may be how we're starting the season. If not, it'll be Colt McCoy. And so that would be a potential home run. Yep, could be. I'll jump in here for kickers. There's just a couple handful of tips. Number one, you want to target a high scoring

offense that seems that like you should realize that but like follow uh uh you want teams that are in the dome i jason and i are legendary for complaining about when a new studio is or a studio a new stadium is not a dome. So stupid. It's ridiculous. It's dumb. And you're actually going to hear more about that later on. Are we? When there are tips and tricks. And you'll go, oh, maybe those two guys are smarter than I thought.

Wait, you're talking about you two? Yeah. Yeah, that big dome. And what's crazy is that person you were just emulating, they already thought we were really smart. That's true. Einstein levels after this one. So you want teams that score a lot of points,

they have a really strong passing attack because more points for an offense is more opportunity for a kicker. And not just talking about extra points. We're saying if they move the ball, then they get on the other side of the field and they kick field goals. Yeah, if you're not punting, that's a pretty good sign for a kicker. Some tips there,

and of course, be ready for the boom-boom kicker. Jason's most highly researched subject when you talk about smarts. News and notes from Around the League. Presented by USAA Insurance. news and notes from around the league presented by usaa insurance i mean one piece of news right at the top is that the megala show is 10 days away oh 10 days away from uh the fantasy footballers live in los angeles go to ballerslive.com if you want to

come see us uh that show is going to be insane yeah um jason get some sleep we're gonna need you at full force i'm planning on sleeping after this show until then at full hybrid i will not be on the the shows in between all right that makes sense yeah honestly great choice um i'm gonna blitz the news real quick before we get into our tips and tricks. Aaron Rodgers, calf injury. What's going on with these calf muscles? Quarterbacks are ignoring them these days in training. You've got to start with your calves on leg day. That's how you get them big and juicy.

Thanks, Mike. So this was the same calf he hurt at OTAs? Is that true? I don't know. I don't know if it's the same one or not, but he did injure his right calf during OTAs. We'll monitor that. Javante Williams will play in the Saturday preseason game against the 49ers. Unbelievable.

So that's exciting. The fact that Javante is back out there, impressive. Lions wide receivers getting beat up today. Almon Ross, St. Brown hurt his lower right leg on the first play of seven on sevens. Working with the trainers last we heard. And then Jamison Williams pulled up, grabbing the old hamstring. Big come a blowout.

He has six weeks to heal up though, don't he? Yeah, he does, but this... I mean, if Jameson Williams misses the rest of training camp and then goes into a six-week lockdown where you can't be with the team, that's just bad vibes. Justin Ross left practice early, Chiefs wide receiver.

This one didn't look serious. Russell Gage is very hurt. Non-contact knee injury. It looks like a severe injury that will end his season. And Russell Gage will be removed from that wide receiver room in Tampa Bay. It's a huge bummer. He's had some injury issues, and you hate to see that. Cordero Patterson out a few weeks for the Falcons.

I saw another report this morning expectations from the athletic beat writers covering the Atlanta Falcons. Had projected 300 total touches for Bijan Robinson over the course of the year. And 175

touches for Tyler Algier over the course of the year. That sounds about right to me. I think he'll be north of 300 total touches, but Tyler Algier over the course of the year. That sounds about right to me. I think he'll be north of 300 total touches, but Tyler Algier will certainly, certainly be involved. Bill's running back Damian Harris finally returning to practice or at least back in uniform for practice today. And what else do we have?

Malik Willis likely to win the backup role over Bananarama. Will Levis. Oh, yes. I live for this. What? Yeah, Bananarama has not been very good so far through camp and preseason. So we'll see. Because Malik Willis, also bad.

He was terrible last year. He looks a lot better this year. He was a rookie last year. He looks a lot better this year. He was a rookie last year. We can leave some margin that Malik Willis was able to improve and be ready for the actual NFL. But if the Malik Willis of this year is the one that was on the field last year and Will Levis can't beat him. Is there a more wasted pick in the NFL than shooting for the quarterback position

in the late first, second round? Well, Malik Willis was not a first or a second. He was third. But Levis was an early pick. Levis was an early second rounder. I don't know. I just feel like the odds of you really hitting a home run in those rounds at quarterback

versus literally setting the pick on fire. I mean, I guess everybody needs a backup quarterback, but I wouldn't spend a second or third rounder on him. I mean, Jalen Hurts was a second rounder, right? Yeah. I'm pretty sure he was. All right. Sure, Jalen Hurts. Derek Carr was a second rounder, I believe.

So it does happen. Andy Dalton? Was Dalton the second rounder? Andy Dalton was. Yeah, I think he was the second. I guess in my head I'm thinking E.J. Emanuel into the first round. I'm thinking Geno Smith, which, look, it's fine now, but it wasn't fine for the Jets.

To be fair, you can burn one-on-one. I meant Johnny Manziel. Yeah, but Baker and Darnold and Zach Wilson. I said late first. I mean, you can burn the pick when it's early in the first as well. Yeah, you can trade away, like, multiple first-round picks. For Trey Lance. And for Trey Lance.

And then just, what was the haul? What they traded away turned into Jalen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Bradley Chuck for Trey Lance. I think that's called a whoopin'. Just a whoopin'. Get a bend over. Get the paddle. That's a whoopin'.

That's a paddlin'. Also, Miles Sanders won't suit up Friday. Getting better with the groin injury. That's good. That was today's News and Notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Let's do it.

Tips and Tricks. All right. The top 10 tips and tricks to win your league for 2023. I mean, we've had a pile of these uh we have a book we have a book full of tips and tricks um but very excited about this episode going to share some uh very helpful things that we think will weigh into decision making throughout the season um received a funny video from the borgogon today from a friend of his in his league

who has listened to two episodes ever of this show. Not a really experienced fantasy player. He listened to the Tips and Tricks episode from last year and the year before. He has won two consecutive titles whooping the Borgogon. I'm not sure if that's as toot-toot as you think it is. That could be that this is the only episode.

This is the only good advice that we give all year. It's just the best advice. It's just the easiest to digest because it's just 10 tips and tricks. Let's begin. Number 10. Upside wins championships. And I know that this seems obvious and easy and normal, but then you look at ADP and you're going to just see everywhere throughout the draft from the beginning to the end, guys

that are floor plays and guys that are ceiling plays all over the place. And the truth is that if you want to win a championship, you need the huge breakout players. You need these sensational superstars. You know, I won last year in our League of Record. I don't remember that. I think primarily, I will make sure you remember it all the time with Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts was, you know, the big breakout player that, you know, he didn't go in the draft where you thought, you know,

where he should have been going in the draft and just massive upside. We did some research, Matt DeSorbo on the website. He found that a player's ebbs and flows of their point distribution is 33 to 50% more important than the raw points that they scored. So it's like, how does this player score? Can they really win a week for you? Do they make an impact on your roster? And, you know, when we're looking, I want to give a couple examples from this year's draft of players that are going next to each other that when you're in that situation, I want you to be thinking of like, which player could be a breakout? Because go back and look at whoever won your championship in your league. They have two or

three breakout players. Always happens. You have to have them if you want to win. But before I talk about this year, I think it's easier to understand looking at last year because it sounds stupid now, but when you look at last year, right in the same round, you had Ramondre Stevenson and you had 29-year-old Melvin Gordon. They were going next to each other in the draft. Melvin Gordon didn't have upside to break out into anything new and special. Ramondre did, and one of those was a great pick, and one of those was not. Or how about later in the draft at the quarterback position, you had Derek Carr, who was good. He wasn't a bad pick. He was a floor play. He finished as quarterback. know he finished like he always does yeah yeah like he always does high in qb2 quarterback 13 or something um it's not like he was a bus it's just he doesn't have the upside and right next to him actually around behind him was justin fields

and justin fields helped get a lot of people to championships um you know you had in the fifth round jaylen wattle and and Allen Robinson where it's like you want the guy who can just break out did you hear that they went together yeah yeah they they they were they were near each other so let's look at let's look at this year I'll give you a couple examples um of players that are right next to each other in ADP. You're going to be staring at these players, and you just got to think, like, who could do it? Who could break out? You want Kirk Cousins, or do you want Anthony Richardson,

mobile, super athletic, rookie quarterback that could just go ham? You know, he could end up a top five quarterback this year. And Kirk Cousins, he will do what he always does. He's just like Derek Carr. Kirk Cousins will be fine. He'll have some weeks here or there, but he will finish as quarterback 10, 11. Yeah. How about this?

I think Brandon Cooks is going to be good. As do I. His camp reports have been really positive. But right next to Brandon Cooks is Jahan Dotson. One of these two players has the true breakout potential on their offense to become an alpha fantasy asset, and it ain't Brandon Cooks. So a couple others. You've got Christian Kirk going next to Javante Williams right now. Christian Kirk is going to be fine.

These aren't bad players. They're safe players. They're known commodities. But you're not winning a championship with Christian Kirk and Brandon Cooks. I was looking at another one at the running back position. David Montgomery going right next to James Cook. David Montgomery is going to be fine. He's going to get touchdowns. I've talked about how I like David Montgomery,

but if you want to win a championship. Well, he's the Melvin Gordon in the example compared to the Ramondre Stevenson in the example that you gave earlier. Exactly, and you're going to have swings and misses, right? You're going to take Kadarius Toney because of the glorious upside swing for the fences, and sometimes it's just a strikeout. But that's fine. You've got to hit on some breakouts.

So when you're drafting this year, focus on getting a player who legit could break out. I was going to say, for a baseball metaphor, to my knowledge, no one has ever hit a home run while bunting. Has that ever happened? Not to my knowledge. Like I've not dove into the research. Not even an inside the park home run on a bunt.

Yeah. The phrase that Kyle uses often is injecting volatility into your lineup. And if you look at it through the lens of what you're saying of like, okay, maybe you swing and miss sometimes. Well, let's just throw it out there as a flat 10 draft picks. If you hit home runs on five and you fail on five, well, guess what you get to do? You get to tune into the show, use your brain,

and pick up five new players, and then you add those guys to the other five that you found in the middle of nowhere that have the volatility and upside. So there have been only a handful of bunt home runs in baseball history. Okay, so it has happened. It has happened. So you can draft Derek Carr and win a championship.

That's what you're saying. It's just rare. It's rare. All right, quick break and back with the rest of the countdown. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the countdown. ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. I mean, ultimately, having Mike and Jason accurate on a baseball metaphor was an

impossibility. I said to do my knowledge. Right. You did qualify with do my knowledge. Right. You did qualify with your limited knowledge of baseball. All right, let's move on. Number nine. All right, we're going to call this one, and this ain't your mama's play calling.

And what we're talking about is this tendency and fantasy, and look, it's just human nature. When you've seen something happen in the past, it's hard not to project it to be identical in the future because it's all we have to lean on so often. But when looking at past team trends, it's so easy to settle down into this is what they have done. For example, we can spend an offseason talking about,

well, this team is 30th in pass attempts last year. The quarterback is a meh quarterback. I don't have confidence, so I'm going to downgrade all their wide receivers. Their pace, it's bad. Every year, though, and we've learned this, especially doing this podcast as long as we have, and the way that the NFL has trended

when it comes to hiring offensive coordinators, head coaches, every single season we have new out-of-the-box play callers that join a team and literally that change shifts the entire outcome of the offense for the upcoming year. And as fantasy players, we want to be ahead of that curve because you're not going to have time to react three, four, five weeks later into the season. You're just going to be sitting there going, man, why didn't I believe in that fundamental change in the coaching staff, the play calling? The best example of this that I can think of is the way we approach the Miami offense heading into last season.

Mike McDaniel, brand new head coach, offensive mind, Tua Tungavailoa, lack of confidence in the fact that he could change. By week two and six touchdowns in a Baltimore game, you knew something was fundamentally different with this team. And if you had invested in any of the Miami offensive pieces in fantasy, you had found a gold mine relative to value. You just talked about a fifth round, what, wide receiver seven in Jalen Waddell? Mm-hmm. And so I want to point out a couple of offenses going into this upcoming year that you should keep your eye on and that the perspective you have now

may be so different two, three weeks into the year. We'll start with the Washington Commanders offense. Eric Bien-Ami taking over as the offensive coordinator coming out of Kansas City last year, dead last in first half pass rate. It's not going to be that way this year. I don't even care if they switch quarterbacks halfway through the year. That is going to change. They were really bad in passing efficiency, but you should see a spike

and a change with this offense. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dodson are stars. They lacked the ability for this offense to creatively involve them. So Washington's a team to pay attention to. Been talked about a lot this offseason. Todd Monken, Baltimore, the new offensive coordinator. Things are going to change so much in Baltimore. Whether it works, we'll find out.

But the blueprint is going to be completely different. Last year, they ran three wide receivers on 12% of plays. Disgusting. So far in preseason week one, it's preseason. 81% of the time, they were running three wide receiver sets, which is, look, the NFL average was 61%. They were at 12 percent so Todd Monken is known for a more creative pass heavy offense with fast pace and that gives room if three wide receivers are out there 60 to 80 percent of the time there's a pretty good chance that all three of them you maybe you don't have to get it exactly

right maybe all three of them out produce their draft costs because it's very low for those three guys. Beckham, Flowers, Bateman. Two other offenses I'll throw out there real quick. Indianapolis with Shane Steichen, the offensive coordinator from the Super Bowl Philadelphia Eagles. Super Bowl attending. Yeah, Super Bowl attending.

Sorry, Philly. I felt like I covered it, but you really wanted to turn the knife. Last year, Indianapolis offense, it was terrible. Dead last in turnovers per drive, red zone efficiency. I wonder why. They're going to slow things down a little bit,

but because that's the recipe. I mean, they've beat Kansas City a couple times doing that. That offense could be better than you think. And guess what? Michael Pittman's a super discount right now in drafts because high expectations are not there. Jason, you're grimacing.

Well, we'll get to another tip here in a second that says you're going to need this to change. I mean, Shane Steichen better change that. Well, look, Cam Newton joined the Carolina Panthers with the exact same fantasy expectations for Steve Smith. We were surprised. Over 4,000 yards passing. You just talked about injecting volatility into your lineup

with Anthony Richardson. There are opportunities to be surprised, and I think a player like Michael Pittman has a pretty decent floor regardless of whether that upside hits. And then Sean Payton in Denver. Can he transform an offense that was literally unwatchable? Yeah. I would have rather have been violently ill than consume another Denver game.

It was the worst offense in the league. Offensive scoring, they were the worst. The Texans were better. Every team was better. When they were on offense, I would go out back and pull weeds because it was more enjoyable. But the nice thing is – I'm going to go have some fun.

Yeah, I'm going to go enjoy myself. Like you're pointing out, huge change this year, and I do think that with the addition of Jarrett Stidham, they can get better. Look, New Orleans – Not according to practice reports. It's not going well for Stidham. New Orleans. Not according to practice reports. It's not going well for Stidham.

New Orleans was a great third down machine. Last year, the Broncos were dead last in third down conversion. I'll be excited to watch what happens. Judy, post-hype sleeper Cortland Sutton. Dulcich been making plays in practice. Adam Trautman, Javante Williams, Samajie Pirine. There's a lot of names. It does mean you have to cast your lot with Russell Wilson,

but maybe you just put that out of your brain and say you're casting your lots with Sean Payton. Before you move on from this tip, because I just want to throw one other team out there. You've named all these teams that basically just had really bad offenses. They've made these shifts, and you hope they get better. But sometimes the shift doesn't have to come just from a bad offense. I would also keep my eyes on the Chargers with the addition of Kellen Moore and a first-round wide receiver and some health there.

You're saying a level up. Even though they were good, I think they could level up from that spot. All right, moving on. Number eight. We're going to call this one Tears for Fears. We did mention that this is the ninth year of the podcast doing these types of shows. Coming up with new stuff is important.

We want to gain an edge. But we got to do a callback for this one because the number one tip that I can give anybody during the draft season is you have to group your players in tiers, also known that you can call it into a bucket, where you see the median outcome for these players is very similar. It's the foundation of the ultimate draft kit. When we have our projections, it puts these players together.

Do not use a top 200 rankings sheet. People love it. You have forced us to put it in the UDK. We got backed into an alley. We should make them solve like a math problem to get access to the top 200. Because it just, it gives you no context at all. It doesn't really help you during the draft.

Here's the way. So the tiers that help you during the draft, right? Let's say you're in round three, and you're going, do I need to draft a running back or a wide receiver right here? Well, I look at my wide receivers, and these are all just hypotheticals. The wide receiver, oh, I got five guys left here in my tier three that I have grouped together. Or if you want to follow our advice, that we've grouped together

on the Ultimate Draft Kit. But you look at tier three or so of the running backs, and there's two guys left. Well, the chance that you're going to get a running back of that caliber if you pass on them right now is close to 0%. You've got to play the game. If you look at the wide receivers, sure, there's a chance you don't get one of those five, but the likelihood that one of them returns to you

is pretty high, and it removes a little bit of the lights the the lights and the shine of a name because you you can fall in love with with the name of this player and risk it all and say I know I'm getting that player no matter what but the reality is the probability that this player who is four spots down at the same position may be just as good and you're sacrificing a player at a different position and it's not really going to help the foundation the build of your team so like I good and you're sacrificing a player at a different position and it's not really going to help the foundation the build of your team so like i said if you're in a three wide receiver how many elite wide receivers are left in this tier if you're in an auction draft it's it's still the same like know the tiers know when you want to jump into a particular bucket of players and

super flex quarterbacks it it's all the same. It's all supply and demand. Know the tier of the quarterbacks. Super flex just means that some of them are going to go earlier, so you have to know when to go in on certain tiers. It is the way I have been drafting for years. It was the way I just kind of fell into this way of drafting before the show even started.

I would make my own little spreadsheet and I'd color code and I'd say, I like these four players about the same. And it really, really helped during the draft time. It helps you to not tilt. It helps you avoid desperation. Exactly. Yeah, sorry. I just feel like that's

the summary for me when I'm drafting is I don't feel desperate if I know I've got four guys in a certain bucket and three of them are still on the board of my pick and I know how to play the game. It helps you have the advantage of playing the game. Number seven. I call this one.

Oh, gosh. Wide receiver won'ts. Yeah, baby. What? Is that the word won't? It's the word won't talking about wide receiver ones it's wide receiver won'ts okay yeah okay i yeah i see it on paper and it just it made no sense you said it out loud the first time it made no sense we're at about 50 50 percent sense yes okay yeah i'm gonna try it one more time see if we can get it hit me get me wide receiver one that was your best one yet was it was it a little higher than 50 yeah

i won't go that high but all right so so it's a dumb title, but basically, and this is what I was talking about with specifically Michael Pittman here, Andy. You know, we're always looking for just data that can help us make a decision and go, yeah, okay, the odds are that X is going to happen. Well, we took a look, and at the bottom five teams in pass rate over expectations since 2019 and how their corresponding wide receiver one finished. So basically, if you look at the teams that you project to be a very bad passing team, not bad necessarily as in they just suck at it,

but the pass rate, who's going to throw the ball? They're too high-T. Yeah, exactly. They're going to run more. They're going to go slow. Bottom five teams in terms of slow, low-passing offenses. Exactly right.

Well, how does their wide receiver one fare? Because sometimes they've still got a solid wide receiver one as far as their name recognition or expectations or even just talent. But the wide receiver ones over that time, they average 95 targets and 10.2 fantasy points per game and half PPR scoring. That is the equivalent of wide receiver 35. And that is their succeeding wide receiver. That's the wide receiver one and that is their succeeding wide receiver that's the wide receiver one for that team the best one basically averages the wide receiver 35 the only wide receivers to finish with just 13 fantasy points per game in those type of systems are giant touchdown outlier type of guys

it was Debo Samuel and A.J. Brown. Those two guys have gotten it done, over 13 fantasy points per game. That was A.J. Brown with Tannehill on that slower. He was really like the only wide receiver at the running routes at that point. That was a unique situation. So everything we do in fantasy is just kind of bets on probability. It doesn't mean it's impossible for a player to have a good season like Debo did, like A.J. Brown did. But it does say the vast majority of times, no, they're not really great for fantasy.

They're not going to get it done for you. So let's take a look at who we are projecting team-wise, stat-wise, are going to be in the bottom as far as pass rate over expectation. And there's a couple names that sound juicy that you might need to be a little bit worried about if the team does not throw the ball a lot. Let's start with, very similar to the A.J. Browns, same system, same team. We're moving over to the Tennessee Titans. They're the Tennessee Derrick Henrys. They're not going to throw the ball a ton and Hopkins is great. He's a superstar but if the

pie is small and there's just not even if he's great and he's got you know 30% market share which he needs it still might not be enough to actually be valuable. Right now he's being drafted as the wide receiver 21 right behind him at wide

receiver 22 and and I find myself more in on this player it's really a matter of do you believe the Bears will continue to throw the ball less or will they will they step it up I think they will step it up but if they don't DJ Moore is in trouble. We talked about that to start. When the trade happened, it was like, oh, what a bad landing spot. It's really a matter of do you think they're going to stay running that same system or throw the ball more? Michael Pittman with the Colts. The Colts look to me to be a team, especially with a rookie quarterback, that is not going to throw the ball a ton.

They're going to try to slow it down. I do think they'll have Jonathan Taylor there. They've got a mobile rushing quarterback. Why don't you mention that other one, that other name on the list? The Atlanta Falcons also project to be a run-heavy team that does not throw the ball a lot. So Drake London would be – And what's the other guy?

What's the other guy that would be impacted? Oh, I did not look up any statistics on tight ends in these situations. I'm so sorry, Andy. It was just Drake London. Yeah, Mack Hollins. I was talking about Mack Hollins. Definitely not Kyle Pitts. No, but you said the small pie lowers your odds.

If you don't get a touchdown from those players in those games, you could have really low floors. Yes, the floors are low. The average is low and so if you're looking at a wide receiver one that is i would rather have a wide receiver two for a good offense than a wide receiver one for a bad one makes sense number six all right this was pretty simple but a really important reminder as you head into draft season we're going to call it don't double your trouble okay oh? Oh, you toil and trouble?

I don't know. Toil and bubble? No, no, keep trying. Boil and bubble? No, no. You're really undermining me here now. My apologies. Is that a witch joke? Yes, yes.

Yeah, yeah. Double, double toil and trouble? Yeah. Is that right? Yeah. So I had it right. At some point you did. Oh, no, no.

I don't think you ever said don't double your trouble here's what we're talking about it's like what i'm doing right now yeah you're doubling my trouble um this is related to the onesie positions that you take within the first four rounds and when i say a onesie position let me be clear i'm talking about drafting a quarterback in one quarterback league or a tight end in a one tight end league double double toil and trouble fire burn and cauldron bubble. You're welcome, Andy. Thank you.

So I had most of the words. You had a bunch of words that you were throwing out there. Yeah. I have no chance here. We all like positional advantages. We all would prefer to have Travis Kelsey versus everybody else. We'd all prefer to have Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen over everybody else. The problem is you play two running backs. You play two wide receivers,

maybe three in your league. You have a flex position that you fill with a wide receiver or a running back. If you invest, I just want people to understand what they're sacrificing. If they invest multiple picks in the first four rounds on onesie positions, which is why I'm saying don't double your trouble. You want to take one? You want to grab the Andrews in the third? You want to grab the Mahomes or Allen in the second or third? I'm cool with that.

I like having that positional advantage, and you want that guy on your team. But if you do it twice, if you go Kelsey and then you follow it up with Josh Allen, or you go Kelsey and you follow it up with Patrick Mahomes, you are sacrificing a tremendous amount of value at running back and wide receiver that is going to be very difficult to overcome over the course of a snake draft. For example, if you took Kelsey in the middle of the first and followed up with one of the three elite quarterbacks, your team is starting. This is just projecting on mock drafts. You're starting a running back tandem of you get Najee Harris in the third round, then you go Hopkins, Sanders, and Lockett. That could work out for you, but you are sacrificing depth at those positions because you did not invest the first or second round on them. You get a lower tier running back. Mike just talked about tiers. So you're a lower

tier at both of those positions from round three on. So you've got to thread the needle. It's not impossible. Again, people do it. They succeed with it, but you are threading the needle. You don't have margin of failure at those other positions. Maybe, you know, another simulation of that same stack, you know, you got Brees Hall in the third round as you're running back one. There's a lot of risk there at running back one. Then you come back with Ridley as your wide receiver one. I'd really like that to be my wide receiver two with the upside. You are sacrificing a lot of depth and a lot of –

you're putting yourself in a lot of depth and a lot of – you're putting yourself in a position of disadvantage at running back and wide receiver to have those onesie positions where they also have to be perfect. You take Kelsey, he has to be the best in the league. You take Mahomes, Allen, or Hertz, they have to be a top three quarterback or else you are costing yourself tremendously. And that, frankly, it doesn't repeat that way all the time with these players.

Justin Herbert last year, a perfect example, you invest in a tight end early and you go Justin Herbert, you are going to be in big trouble in fantasy. So my recommendation, my tip would be don't double your trouble. If you invest in a onesie position, leave it at either tight end or quarterback and then draft the other one later in your draft. Number five. Calling this one flexy and I know it.

I'm flexy and I know it. Because every day I am shuffling. But look, toil and trouble. See, that doesn't even make sense. No. I should have hit him with a doot, doot, doot, doot, doot, doot. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That works.

That works. Look, we want to win the flex position, right? We got our two wide receivers, our two running backs. But don't forget about that flex guy down there. Get flexy. And here's the thing. In drafts, backup running backs, it's not really the best idea an insurance running back someone who is just here because what if the starter goes down or what if my starter goes down well i'm

going to have this player here there's just it is such a low hit rate of knowing who the true backup is how much work are they actually going to get we all remember D'Angelo Williams uh coming in here for Le'Veon Bell that's all that's burned into your brain because that was a true league winning running back but it just it doesn't happen that way that's why I want to recommend targeting flex with benefits players because these are running backs that you can start but flex with benefits but there are benefits should the player in front of them miss time look we just talked about david montgomery maybe his his true ceiling it won't be there when jameer gibbs is healthy if jameer but if jameer gibbs misses time david montgomery like this isn't a this isn't the

maybe he's the backup maybe he'll be the guy if jameer gibbs misses time is no this is a 1b on the team who just happens to be going a little bit later in the draft aj dylan he still has that upside playing along with aaron jones and and you could start him in a pinch. Antonio Gibson, I think, is one of our favorite, quote, backup running backs because he's taken over the J.D. McKissick role for the Washington Manders. He's going to get those high-value touches in the receiving game. Brian Robinson probably still profiles as the goal line running back, but what if Brian Robinson misses time or he continues to be a plotter

and then Eric Bien-Ami is like, no, I want my athletic Antonio Gibson in there. Samaj P. Ryan for the Denver Broncos. Same situation with Javante. That one's even more volatile. I can't believe that Javante is ready to go. But is he ready to go to the point of like, is he really like,

is, is he actually going to be able to be in football shape? And Charbonnet for the Seahawks kind of fits in there as well. So take a chance on some of these players. This is the whole idea of the zero running back concept of loading up on wide receivers because they tend to stay safe. They don't get hurt as much as the running back position. And then you take running backs later who gain value over the season

instead of compared to your ADP or the early running backs. If they get hurt, you're tanked. You lose a bunch of value. So just remember, flex with benefits. You can play them. And then there's massive upside should something shake out, unfortunately, for their starter. I like it.

Number four. All right, this one is about finding discount versions of the same thing later in the draft. Is this like buying generic? Yeah, basically it's buying generic. It's saying, hey, I could save some money. It's like the RC Cola of the... I would like to buy the tissues, please.

You know, I'm getting the same thing here or i'm getting 90 of the same thing but it costs a lot less okay and so the tip here is that when you um when you isolate specific examples and you personally believe yeah i think this player is 90 of that player going later, it's really to not draft the first version. That's the tip. The tip is to not draft the brand names, to wait on the generic version that you can get later because fantasy football in the draft, it's all about opportunity cost. That's what we're doing.

Travis Kelsey is great. Travis Kelsey is great. Travis Kelsey is great. Yeah, there's no shade on his output. No, but when you draft Travis Kelsey right now, where he's going the fifth, sixth pick overall, you're sacrificing a huge opportunity. It's Austin Eckler, B. John Robinson, Cooper Cup. Those are the players that are great players.

Now, Kelsey is as well. So it's not a matter of, it's looking at it and going, okay, Austin Eckler, he's going to get 100 targets. Is there a discount version, someone later in the draft that I can get that could give me 90% of what he does? Probably not. There's not a lot of Austin Ecklers out there. To me, I believe Mark Andrews is a discount version of Travis Kelsey. Two rounds later, in the middle of the third round, you can grab him. I've talked about that a lot. Oh, he's the Amazon Basics version? He's the Amazon Basics of Travis Kelsey.

Those are good deals. They're good deals. I don't recommend the batteries. You know, the batteries, they're not good. Yeah, what's going on there? We take a second to really talk about this. We've all noticed this, right? It's unbelievable.

They have to put like 10% of the juice in that battery. Those batteries come like ready to die. I'm not joking. The other day I had to change four batteries. I put in four Amazon Basics. The thing didn't work. Brand new Amazon Basics. Took those out, put four of the bunny

in there. Sure. It worked. I thought the thing was broken. The brand new batteries didn't work, but go on. Terrible example of this situation. The gray ones are better, Al? Yeah. The gray Amazon Basics batteries. Not the orange. Good stuff. Yeah, stay away from the orange. Really? There's tip number

11. Thank you, Al. Bonus tip. You came for fantasy football advice and yet you're getting life advice battery yeah dead batteries are the orange ones go on so this is why i'm personally not drafting kelsey in the first because the opportunity cost that i give up let's talk about the second round quarterbacks um mahomes in the second three rounds later you can get justin her, and I believe he is 90% of Mahomes this year. And that means it's not like he's going to be better. It's now I get another second round draft pick. I get a super valuable player that's going where Mahomes is,

and I'm going to pair him with Herbert, who is 90% of what I would have gotten in the second round. Jalen Hurts. I love Jalen Hurts. But in the second round, how about three rounds later, you get Justin Fields. He's going to be 90% of what you're getting in the second round, and then you get that second round pick. Other examples that I personally think are good generic discount versions, so I am more inclined to avoid the first so that I can just add to my roster with with uh other good options Keenan Allen he's a discount Amin Ra he's a couple

rounds later he's doing mostly the same things in fact I I Kyle put this in here he had to he had to flex because he's uh Mr. Keenan but Keenan Allen had more top 24 weeks than Amon Raw last year, despite not playing until week 11, which is pretty crazy. That's impressive. Khalil Herbert, we brought him up a little bit ago as a cheaper version of Rashad White. So I'll bypass Rashad White. Dallas Goddard, cheaper version of TJ Hawkinson.

And, you know know you look at your at who you believe is the same type of player same archetype who's going a couple rounds later and then avoid the first one number three all right I'm speaking to the heart of fantasy players here and we're going to call this history does not

always repeat itself and this is my warning to the listeners out there be a lot easier if it did if it did look watch out for what i'm calling historical burn bias i want to pull out the tube of aloe vera and give you some you know spread it all over those burns so you can start fresh this year, players that have hurt you in the past, it's very, very difficult to give them a clean slate, right? I don't know if this is like a band comes out with two albums that are terrible in a row, and how are you going to view the next album that comes out? Through the lens of those past two, and guess what? That's not going to give it a fair shake. Christian McCaffrey

is an example of this. He had the injury run of 2020, 2021. Everyone passing on him saying, hey, he's going to get injured again. I'm not falling for that again. Flips the script, goes RB2. Saquon Barkley, same thing. The injury run, he's not a lead anymore. He's going to get injured again. Last year, flipped the script. RB6, monster workload, 371 opportunities. Even Miles Sanders, he's a trap. He's had no touchdowns in 2021. Last year, best season as a pro, big contract in Carolina. We, as fantasy players, spend so much time talking about these names.

We invest our heart and soul into them. Half of you change your team name based on a player's name. When they let you down, we can become a resentful, blinded. Fool me twice. Yeah. Shame on me. It's just you need to see the whole picture, not just what the player has done to you in the past, but what is the truth of their situation, the offense, their actual health.

There are very few players that, you know, you hear us say it all the time on the UDK rankings, we're not baking injury in unless a player is like off the chart historical. He's got an ongoing injury that's chronic, like the girly coming back. Hedarius Tony. Yeah, Tony. But most players, even Tua, we're going into the year looking with a fairly clean slate on the injury front because any player can get injured at any moment.

And if a player's burned you in the past, but you have an opportunity to get them at a value and they have a clean slate, you're going to make a fair-minded, clear decision. Let those burns go. Don't hold it against these guys because history does not always repeat itself number two number two we want to talk about the dome field advantage see that's how you do it jason right there wide receiver one that's a big gap between those two. So you can use this one just when you're targeting players, but I do also want to talk about the context of streaming quarterbacks

looking for low-end starters. Look no further than players who are simply playing indoors. Kyle took a look at every NFL game played in September. And because we're talking about early, we want to get off to a hot start, okay? Over the past five years, every game played in September. We're talking 271 games. Games that were played outdoors. 54% of them hit their under.

Gross. They averaged 45.4 points per game. What if they got a retractable roof? Okay. We can at least open it when we want to, close it when we don't want it open. 47.7 points per game. 52% hit the under. Okay.

Better? Slightly better. Better? Closer? Warmer? Enter the big, beautiful, air-conditioned, climate-controlled dome. Everybody's comfortable. The patrons, the players, and what happens?

An average combined score of 50.5 points. 54% hit the over. The home team averaged over 25 points a game. You're a dumb salesman that's right i'm glad you're a door-to-door dome salesman that is a badge of honor he's just got to make one sale he does only have to make one sale if anybody out there wants to buy a dome from me just so again outdoors in september 45.4 points in a dome, 50.5. We're hitting the over 54% of the time.

This is what we want. So if you're looking for flex options or quarterbacks to start in September, week one, Tennessee and New Orleans, Mr. Christopher Olave, Tampa Bay at Minnesota, Miami at the Chargers. Week two, Seattle versus Detroit. Detroit is the perfect example of the dome team. When they're at home, comfortable in the dome. I don't want to look at the Detroit sky.

That one you can dome it up. I don't care about that, but man, this is where fantasy and reality depart from me. So the point is there is actual numbers to back up. Playing inside gives you more fantasy production. Yes, there are the NFL people that say, well, no, I want to be out in the elements. I don't. It gives you better football. I want, yes, no, I want more points is better football. Yes, more points is better football. Yes, more points is better football.

The experience of going to a game is better if you can have it outdoors, period. Sure. I mean, why don't you guys move all the stadiums, domes, in Denver so you get the mile-high air, too? You want to do that? All games played in Denver in a dome with rocket boosters on the ball. Rocket boosters? Now I'm interested.

You talk to Russ. I bet if you asked Russ, hey, would you have preferred a dome in Denver? And he would have said, let's ride. You're leaning on Russ in an argument. That's all he says. Look, the data is there. Obviously, those retractable roof ones. Get inside. I'm guessing in September, almost all of them are open.

So it's like those might as well be outdoor stadiums. I'm fine with the retractable world. If it's pouring rain. As Kyle says, Lambo sounds cool until you get pneumonia. Lambo's awesome. Yes it is. Thank you Al. Until you get pneumonia.

Pneumonia's awesome. Underrated. Alright we have one more. Number one. All right, this is our combined tip for this season, the number one spot, and it's simply titled Know Your League's Tendencies. Because this show, we give broad advice.

We talk about things on a player level, team projection level, but we are not sitting with you in that room when the draft happens. I know for sure that despite the ADP, where wide receivers are king, they rule the world right now in the first and second round in most leagues. I know our league of record, it's going to be all running backs. That's just how our league drafts they scoop them up they care so much they hoard them home leagues will be that too right right a lot a lot of them will be but um you know some some leagues it's it's they're still going to be uh

flexing on the late round quarterback and you know you know we we had someone uh right in on our last mailbag show saying i know know my – it was even a Superflex league. They don't draft quarterbacks very high. You've got to know, okay, the guy that is between me and my next pick at the turn is a giant Packers fan. Well, as you say, Al, where do Packers players go in one of your family leagues? Oh, yeah, they definitely go a good full round higher than ADP.

Yeah, I mean, you're fighting over them, right? Yeah, for sure. I mean, knowing who is in your league, what they usually do, it's a true advantage. It really is. And it's not always, oh, I've got a Packers fan. But if you can know, and sometimes you can go back and look at your last couple drafts.

You can actually go back and just look your last couple drafts. Yes. You can actually go back and just look at it and be like, oh. This guy always takes the quarterback early. Exactly. Ben is always drafting the rookies. You know, just take a look and see what tendencies they have because it really does give you a crazy advantage. Yeah, we're trying to equip you to take knowledge about these players

and situations and literally have you go and you inject that knowledge into your league context. Because you might be in an 8-team or a 16-team. You could have, like we're talking about, players that have tendencies one direction or the other. You know your league better than we do. So you go and you take this information and all of your own information and you contextualize it for your league and that's always going to be the way that you get the biggest advantage because it can backfire on on you to like look at a straight adp number and then go into your league and like oh i can no matter what i'm going to be able to get uh mark andrews in the third round

well not if he always goes or the tight ends always go in the first and second round in your league or something to that extent you you don't want to get burned by just counting on other players to draft a way that like the general consensus draft so would you recommend hiring a private detective absolutely if you can afford it yeah okay this is can you write that off i expect both of you by the way and it's our job right yeah wait can we write that off? I expect both of you, by the way. We can. It's our job. Can we write that off? I think we could write that off. I think we could write that off. First of all.

Detective inspecting fantasy football habits. If you draft any players this year in our League of Record draft that aren't playing in domes on a regular basis, I'm going to call shenanigans on that whole tip. Okay. I expect you to commit to full dome players. Full domed them? Domed them.

Thank you. Now you're on Jason's level. All right. That is going to commit to full dome players. Full domed them? Domed them. Thank you. Now you're on Jason's level. All right. That is going to do it for today's episode. UltimateDraftKit.com, the live stream. Giving away the UDK for life. It's on Friday.

And then tomorrow, Mock Draft Mayhem, my guy's episode on Friday. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.