Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Top 10 WR Rankings Episode - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/4

Episode Date: August 4, 2023

What could go wrong? Find out what separates the elite WRs on today’s fantasy football podcast! How concerning is the Cooper Kupp hamstring injury? Fantasy football breakout season coming for Garret...t Wilson? Plus, how to handle players falling in fantasy football drafts. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for August 4th, 2023. Dive into the 2023 Ultimate Draft Kit + Draft Analyzer! UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on Twitter Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Check out today's sponsors: News & Notes presented by USAA. Visit https://USAA.com/Insurance Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:48 Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages. Conditions apply. Scotiabank, you're richer than you think. Hey, this is Austin Eckler and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast With your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright Welcome in Oh, welcome in. Friday, August 4th, the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Thank you for joining us.
Starting point is 00:01:44 Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway. We are here. We're ready to talk. Top 10 wide receivers on today's show. Outstanding performance from Zach Wilson. Oh, yeah. I tried to watch. I wanted to see all the Zach Wilson snaps. Sure. I wanted to see all the Zach Wilson snaps.
Starting point is 00:02:05 Sure. I wanted to see Israel a band of Canada. Oh, hold on. Come on. But I mean, there just wasn't much to much to see. I would say wasn't particularly impressed. We're just more excited that football is back. That it exists.
Starting point is 00:02:32 It's just a reminder. It's like, remember this? Yes. Get ready. Someday it will look like this, but with players we care about. Yeah. Happy to have you with us. Like I said, ultimatedraftkid.com. Head over there.
Starting point is 00:02:43 Jam-packed. Every year it gets a little bit better. I believe, last I heard, over one Harry Potter novel's worth of analysis within the UDK in terms of written word. Interesting. Not in terms of spells. Did we shuffle the players into different houses?
Starting point is 00:03:04 Not yet. That's a great idea, Mike. It's a little different than tier-based drafting. It's house-based drafting. But, no, it's great. You've got to check it out, ultimatedraftkit.com. We do have a Voldemort. That's true.
Starting point is 00:03:18 We're already on our way. Twitter. X. Brooks, you're going to have to change the show docs. Guess so. X is going to give it to you. change the show, Docs. Guess so. I'm just going to give it to you. At the FF Ballers. Follow us over there.
Starting point is 00:03:29 Follow Mike at FF Hitman. Follow Jason at Jason FFL. Follow me at Andy Holloway. And quick question of the day. Alex in Indianapolis says, when a player is falling in a draft, how far past ADP before the value is too good to pass up? I love this question because I think it kind of pulls at the whole ADP world in general of how you view, and that's average draft position. And so every platform has their own average draft
Starting point is 00:04:02 position based on historical drafts that have taken place. I was just in an underdog draft, and I had this exact situation pop up. Who fell? I'm trying to remember who it was. I don't remember it off the top of my head. It was a name that just kept falling and kept falling, but I didn't need that position. I didn't take the player. There wasn't a number I was looking for.
Starting point is 00:04:31 I mean, maybe we would have gotten to this point where I mess up my entire team strategy to take the player, but that wasn't the goal. Like if I took that player, I was going to be deficient someplace else. And so I would just say that like a couple of things at the top, like I don't look at ADP like I'm missing out on something if I don't believe in that player. And then ADP tells me I'm supposed to.
Starting point is 00:04:53 That's one way I wouldn't just take the player because they're falling. And the other way is if I've built the team a certain way and I'm going to disrupt that. Like, Jason, how do you approach it? Yeah, for me it's very different different between whether this is one of my leagues I'm in, like the League of Record or a startup, a redraft, or if I'm doing underdog drafts. Because underdog drafts, for me, there is a number. It's like if there's about 20 spots behind ADP, I'm going to take them almost no matter what.
Starting point is 00:05:23 Now, your example of like if I've got three tight ends, I'm not going to take them almost no matter what now your your example of like if if I've got three tight ends I'm not going to grab a fourth one um so there there's there's rules to that but the reason that I would do that on underdog is because we're pretty good at fantasy football and by we I don't just mean us three. I mean humanity. Average draft position. Just clip that, though. Average draft position has proven especially, it gets better and better every single year, more and more accurate to the fantasy finishes of these players.
Starting point is 00:05:57 So generally speaking, it is a good guide to where people's value would last. But, you know, I try to diversify on underdog if i've got a ton of drafts i i want players sometimes that i that i don't like you know i want to take a shot on them there whereas in my home league it's like i i that i'm with andy i don't i don't care so much about adp i want the guys that I believe in. The only place where it really changes for me is the middle round tight ends. Like I don't like drafting Hawkinson or Kittle or those guys, but if they do, you know, go a couple rounds later, then I'm willing to pull that trigger. Sure. It, the, there is an inner battle for everyone who plays fantasy football, because you have your process, which
Starting point is 00:06:45 has gotten you to the players that you believe in, and then watching someone fall in ADP, you need to leave room. You need to have a margin of perhaps I am wrong. Perhaps my process on this player is wrong, and there's a reason that they're being selected where they were, but in this draft they're falling and then there is the emotional aspect of it of drafting players because you feel like you're supposed to that you don't believe in and then they are bad at the end of the year oh that feels bad it feels really bad like this is this is not a this is not stat or scientifically based.
Starting point is 00:07:26 This is the human element of the game, of the emotional. If I draft someone I knew I shouldn't have because they all of a sudden became a value, I never move away from it. I never forgive myself for drafting that player. And that brings it to the point of feeling pressure to make the pick people think you're supposed to make so you don't look stupid. And inherently, if a player is dropping that you don't believe in,
Starting point is 00:07:57 they're dropping. So other people aren't taking the player you don't believe in. So it can be a bit of a mental hurdle to get over to kind of stick with your process. And ultimately, you don't want to live with that regret. I mean, Brooks mentioned it too. It's like if you take that player you didn't believe in because you feel like you have to so that it looks good as a name on your roster. It's the worst.
Starting point is 00:08:21 Oh, I got a heck of a value on this guy I don't like. It's the worst. Yeah, and here's the other thing, and maybe it's a good August reminder now that we're into five days a week. None of the players in the NFL perform based on their average draft position in fantasy football.
Starting point is 00:08:41 There is no direct correlation to performance. You're saying they don't look at it? They don't look at it. They don't care about your fantasy team? No, they don't get a little ADP injection on the sidelines from the training staff that helps them perform. They're at the goal line and the coach is like, well, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on.
Starting point is 00:08:59 Get the backup in there. We got to get him some more points. Here's a good example of an area where I am bucking some trends adp wise carolina's wide receiver room okay uh adam theolin jonathan mingo are traditionally the two players in terrence marshall right those those names they come up i'm drafting dj charke above all those players okay and because that know, we have this established average draft position that just comes out and then everybody just does it. But I think DJ Chark is a really talented player that is going to be able to earn opportunities there.
Starting point is 00:09:36 And I don't really care what everybody else thinks about how that room's going to go. Now I'm going to pay attention to preseason. I'm going to pay attention to camp and reality, but I'm not, you know, we, we get these average job positions going in February March April like they they kind of persist for a really long time uh JSN Tyler Lockett that's been an interesting ADP thing to watch yeah uh that that one got pretty crazy pretty quickly um because you know when when uh something happens months ago and an ADP is quickly established,
Starting point is 00:10:08 it's really hard for anyone staring at that to not just obey it. That's obey the ADP. And so it just kind of sticks. And when things change, they don't catch up quick enough. So as we get closer and closer to the end of august to your actual draft be willing to know that if if new information has happened and changed recently over the last couple weeks adp will not reflect it as well as it should so be a little bit more aggressive there oh because it's lagging yeah yeah yeah and if you drafted jsn and around behind adp three months ago you're like oh man i took the value i wanted and then now he's behind tyler lockett in drafts so it's not a value anymore so yeah it's it is an
Starting point is 00:10:52 interesting discussion as a whole because i think that the overarching thing is there's a lot of pressure when you're in those drafts because every time you click below like if you're on a platform espn yahoo whatever sleeper and you see that list and you take a player three or four below, you feel like you did something wrong. Yes. Yes. Even we feel that way. Our job is to talk about fantasy football,
Starting point is 00:11:18 and I still feel the pressure of an online draft room and the guy who's at the top of the ADP. I'm like, well, it's the best guy left, right? It has to be. You can take advantage of that in the fact that the other people in your league are going to feel a lot of pressure to take those top guys. You've got to fight against it. But it's hard because you also pick and then you wait maybe 15 picks
Starting point is 00:11:39 before you pick again. So good question. Thank you, Alex, for sending that one in. Let's jump into the news news and notes from around the league presented by usaa insurance well we got some news from the seattle running back room zach charbonnet cobbler strikes again peach cobbler with the unknown injury for Zach Charbonnet. He's back. He's back on Thursday in practice.
Starting point is 00:12:07 Indefinite means whatever you want it to mean. Look, we got to figure out this word indefinite because it is ominous and terrifying. Yes, Pete Carroll used it. Technically, it was appropriate. Lasting for an unknown or unstated length of time. Yes. Pete Carroll used it. Technically, it was appropriate. Lasting for an unknown or unstated length of time. Yes. But usually when you say that, you're like, this guy's going to miss some time. I just don't know how much.
Starting point is 00:12:36 You're not like, if someone's going to miss three days, you go, yeah, he'll be out a couple days. I would use only that word. If I was a head coach, I would never use another word. You're not accountable to that word. And you're not even, like as a coach, you don't know. It's the training staff. Like mid-game, when they're trying to talk to you, oh, we saw your center got a little shook up there.
Starting point is 00:12:58 How long, is it going to miss time? Indefinite. We just don't know. Next snap, they're back. That's a good bit. I didn't know. I didn't know. I mean, a coach could get away with that well yeah because they i mean you don't actually know so maybe indefinite does sound more ominous than just saying like i'm not sure when he'll be back i hope he's back soon like if you say that it is saying the same thing because you hope they're
Starting point is 00:13:20 back soon we have a follow-up quote from pete carroll on zach charbonnet he said quote so now we know what indefinitely is he said that what freaking pete carroll oh he's with us gosh darn it he's he's a clever he's the sneaky snook yeah he really is uh kenneth walker didn't practice groin injury but they're not concerned about that injury. According to the team. They said he'll be back. Elijah Mitchell, out of practice with another injury. His punch card for the year of injuries, starting to get it filled.
Starting point is 00:13:54 The 49ers backup situation is something that needs to be monitored. You would have presumed it was Elijah Mitchell because it has been him before the Christian McCaffrey thing, but Elijah Mitchell can't seem to stay on the field we've seen uh last year's third round pick Ty Davis Price getting some run with the ones but I've also seen some beat reporters that I I trust saying that Jordan Mason looks like he would be the next man up currently if Christian McCaffrey were to miss time. And let's go here.
Starting point is 00:14:29 Broncos head coach Sean Payton said Javante Williams is going to play in the preseason. This is insanity. It's great. If Javante Williams is truly healthy, this is fantastic news, incredible talent. Even if he's getting snaps in the preseason, you still don't know what his workload is going to be. How soon will he be truly the guy?
Starting point is 00:14:55 Will he ever be a workhorse? We don't know that. So this actually, while this is great news for Javante Williams, the player, the man, the truthers, the Javante Williams truthers, it makes the situation all the more messy where it felt like you could get Samaj P. Ryan, who's a good player, at a decent value in the draft and fill in for two to four weeks while I'm trying to figure out some things up in the running back position.
Starting point is 00:15:19 Now, who knows if that's true? I mean, what are you guys doing with this information? Are you moving your risk down on Javante? Are you moving him up? How have you reacted? I have been continuing to watch and monitor the situation, and I want to be aggressive to jump in if this just continues progressing. I think it'll get me a discount on Pirine,
Starting point is 00:15:44 who I think will be very valuable throughout the whole year. So, Javante, I don't think is going to be... Like, I think Samadji Pirine's good. Yeah. So, in that regard, like Javante, we were waiting last year to have that big opportunity. Only got to see him for, what, three and a half games? I'd say it was just a few.
Starting point is 00:16:09 And I'm excited to see what both of those guys can do in the backfield. It's really great news for Javante to get out on the field, get this worked through, and maybe he's a second-half league winner. That was today's News & Notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Wide receivers. Well, if you missed it yesterday, we started the wide receiver rankings countdown, went from 20 to 11.
Starting point is 00:16:38 There are a whole bunch of wide receiver twos, talented wide receiver twos out there, that we talked through. You can listen to that show. Today we start with the number 10 overall receiver in our rankings being drafted as the wide receiver 10. Okay. We all have them ranked very closely. Jason at nine, Mike and I at 11 is, uh, he's a late second round draft pick.
Starting point is 00:17:01 It is sophomore Garrett Wilson. Last year, you got to see it on display against all odds really productive rookie season rookie of the year right offensive rookie that's right 83 for 1100 and four well really productive half a season yeah I mean he busted in 47 percent of games despite the output being at that level. And those games, those 47%, we call those the Zach Wilson games. Yeah, I mean, it's a big transformation and change for him this year.
Starting point is 00:17:35 Just statistically speaking. Right, right. Just, you know, because of the math. So where are you with Garrett Garrett Wilson ceiling with Aaron Rodgers is it a breakout 1500 yard season is that in the cards for Garrett Wilson the yeah it it is I mean that's the ceiling the ceiling is you know 10 touchdowns 1500 yards a true breakout it's like a top three guy. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, we talked about, I think, Andy, you brought up a couple weeks ago that you believe he has the ability to finish as the number one overall wide receiver.
Starting point is 00:18:14 With Aaron Rodgers, if he were to get 12, 13 touchdowns, that could be in the cards. And if you look what he did rookie year, you know, the jokes about Zach Wilson, he scored 6.7 fantasy points per game was Zach Wilson 14.2 without Zach Wilson now he gets Aaron Rodgers yeah 23 years old right at that prime age for a huge breakout we'll have every opportunity in this offense is the most explosive the most athletic camp has been great and um you know the price is pretty high for garrett wilson it's it's it's pretty well baked in but the ceiling could be higher than where he's being drafted so i don't personally have a problem with it starts the season against buffalo dallas new england
Starting point is 00:18:57 kansas city denver philly who so we've talked about the jets start' start to the season. That's suboptimal. And you're going to see what this team has right away with the Jets. So anything to add on Mr. Wilson? He's really good. Yes, he is a tremendous player. We're all in. I mean, the fantasy football community at large is in on Garrett Wilson. The ADP is a little scary because you're basically all but guaranteeing
Starting point is 00:19:35 that the breakout is going to happen. But all the background stuff for Garrett Wilson with the perceived upgrade of Aaron Rodgers you know I kind of tongue-in-cheek brought up well what if Aaron Rodgers is like what if this is another situation of the Denver Broncos happening we don't think that's the case but it's like there's there's definitely some some risk with Garrett Wilson but he it's exactly the profile that you want to bet on because you want the upside of if Garrett Wilson hits, top three is in the range of outcomes. Yeah, I mean, he's the number one on this team that is clear
Starting point is 00:20:15 and evident, and I have no problem with him at that draft price. The next player we have ranked higher, clearly, because it's number nine, so I'll just move it along, but it's Amon Ross St. Brown for the Detroit Lions. But when you're looking at these two, you know, talking about the risk of Garrett Wilson, Amon Ross finishing in the top three would be pretty surprising to me. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:20:39 Like, Amon Ross is sensational. We have him ranked very high, but just saying, you know, the risk of drafting a player who is slightly more proven in Amon Ra versus slightly unproven for Garrett Wilson. But you want ceiling. If it was full point per reception, I could be talked into Amon Ra above Garrett Wilson. I have him one spot below.
Starting point is 00:21:02 You guys both have him higher. But certainly in half and standard leagues, I want Garrett Wilson. I have him one spot below. You guys both have him higher. But certainly in half and standard leagues, I want Garrett Wilson. I want the touchdown upside. We've seen – like that's something that Aaron Rodgers has always been able to do is provide high touchdown totals for his number one receiver. You know, Devontae Adams, it was an automatic situation. He's given the keys to the red zone a lot of the time. Aaron Rodgers is efficient down there, effective.
Starting point is 00:21:28 I think Garrett Wilson is a much higher upside play than Amon Ra. Agreed. But Amon Ra is going to be an automatic producer for your roster. So let's turn there. Being drafted one spot higher at wide receiver nine on average. Like I said, you guys are both a little bit higher on him than garrett wilson and he is tied for the most receptions 196 through the first two years of his career with michael thomas and justin jefferson so this is a a very you know if you listen to interviews with him or you you watch training camp video like this is a very driven
Starting point is 00:22:02 individual to be great. I think there were 20 wideouts taken ahead of him. How many wideouts were taken ahead of him? I don't remember where he can list them all off the top of his head. He has had a persistent chip on his shoulder as a wide receiver since he came into the league, and this team has a lot of weapons. And we're not going to see Jamison Williams for a while. Marvin Jones is older. Sam Laporte is a rookie.
Starting point is 00:22:23 Jameer Gibbs is out of the backfield. I don't see how it goes wrong for Amon Ra outside of injury no it that's the thing about Amon Ra is he is as safe as it comes in half PPR scoring he was the wide receiver eight last year and he scored six touchdowns that's right that's that's I mean he could absolutely score a ton more he he had 106 receptions and only six touchdowns finishes a top 10 wide receiver the offense now you've got another you know year with golf and everything is you know full steam ahead for him I would agree that the you know the the area that he lacks is the downfield stuff, right? So 1500 yards, that's not going to happen for a player like that, who's a possession receiver. So you're right, he's better in full PPR. If I'm staring down those two guys on the clock, I mean, I've got Amin
Starting point is 00:23:18 Ra at my wide receiver seven, my stats have him finishing the season better than Garrett Wilson. I think that the odds are that he will finish higher than Garrett Wilson, but the conversation is definitely which one has the higher ceiling. If you're in the Ultimate Draft Kit, pay attention to the upside meter that we have there because that is the difference there. I would probably still take Garrett Wilson ahead for the shot of superstardom. And just to highlight that a little bit more. So Amin Ra, you know, the season opened very well. Wide receiver 14, wide receiver three gets banged up. Okay. You know, it kind of in and out of the lineup, getting low snaps, low opportunities. Once he was
Starting point is 00:24:01 back and healthy, that's week eight. So from week eight through the rest of the season, in actual total points, he was the wide receiver six in that span. And yet, in that time period, on a weekly finish, he was in the top ten three times. And every other game, he was outside of the top 20. Now this is, it's not bad because in those weeks you're just saying that some spike weeks are happening for other players. He's very consistent. It's a lot like Keenan Allen.
Starting point is 00:24:33 It is a lot like Keenan Allen. Where it's just he is a true – it depends on how you play. He's a chain mover. He's a chain mover. He's a stable piece to your fantasy football team through, because you know the yards will be there, you know the receptions will be there, but overall he's not going to be jumping into the top five on a weekly finish as much as these other players.
Starting point is 00:24:57 Yeah, and we did talk about a little bit of positive regression potential inside the red zone for this team through the air right if because of you know jamal's touchdowns yes and so you could hope but these type of players like keenan you kind of peak at maybe an eight touchdown year you sit around four or five every year and then you soak up ppr points and uh amon raleigh's that type of guy. Quick break. Back with number eight. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage.
Starting point is 00:25:36 For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. All right, at number eight, we have a 24-year-old wide receiver
Starting point is 00:26:04 being drafted as the wide receiver seven. We've got him at eight. Mike's the highest at six. I'm at eight. Jason's at 10. And that would be CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys. The breakout finally happened last year. Wide receiver six overall was fourth in reception and targets,
Starting point is 00:26:20 led the league in slot receiving yards. And from week eight on, he was the wide receiver, two in fantasy points per game. So we've seen it. With an offensive coordinator we trust, now we have to trust C.D. Lamb to do it in spite of maybe a slight change in offense because Dak has been turnover prone also in training camp from what I hear.
Starting point is 00:26:51 I'm not worried about that, honestly. I'm worried about it when it comes on the heels of the amount of interceptions he's thrown. Just a quick aside. Mistakes are supposed to happen in training camp. So this is just like I'm talking about quarterbacks throwing interceptions. Don't freak out. I don't blame Andy.
Starting point is 00:27:13 I don't blame you if Dak was struggling with that the last couple years, and if you're like, oh, well, the struggles continue. But don't overlook into interceptions during practice. The quarterbacks are encouraged. Make these throws. Just try it. See what happens because you want to know what's going to work here as opposed to figuring it out if it's going to work during a game.
Starting point is 00:27:35 Yeah, and I know that this offense, part of the transition, Kellen Moore leaving, Mike McCarthy and company, Brian Schottenheimer taking over, is to put them in a position to protect the football. Score less. Their defense is strong. And, well, it's tough. It is tough. I mean, he was on pace for, you know, over the last 10 games,
Starting point is 00:27:58 24 interceptions on the year. That's a huge problem. Happened in the playoffs as well. What was Dak's injury? Dak hurt himself. It wasn't in his hand? It was a thumb. Yeah, so I don't know if that factored in or not,
Starting point is 00:28:11 but the guy did break his thumb. Like, was it his throwing hand? On his right thumb, yeah. So I don't know. Maybe that factored in. Yeah, so the team is transitioning. CeeDee Lamb, will he have the same opportunity to put up this kind of a season? So the opportunity is the scary part for me.
Starting point is 00:28:30 He has the same talent. He's an exceptional wide receiver, and he's got the same quarterback. So you've got a lot of safe qualities here, but the opportunity is what's scary because last year you had Michael Gallup who wasn't fully, you know, he wasn't all the way back to full health. And you had the departure of Amari Cooper. You had Kellen Moore with a fast pace of play. And I don't think that the offensive coordinator shift is going to make them
Starting point is 00:28:58 run the ball even more. They ran so much. But I think it will slow them down. I think they will – Pace of play. Pace of play will slow down. Total offensive snaps will go down as they want to rest the defense and play old school football a little bit. Not so much that we're only going to run, but then you add Brandon Cooks in and
Starting point is 00:29:18 there's just a little bit more competition for targets and a little slower pace of play. That's why I've got him at wide receiver 10. I mean, I'm still in on CeeDee Lamb. I don't think he has a bad year by any stretch, but I think it is not as good as last year when he was the wide receiver. And I think it's important to say this right now because we're counting down the top 10 wide receivers. So when you hear us say something negative, it's because we're trying to find a way
Starting point is 00:29:46 to differentiate between these players. These are all players we think are great. They wouldn't be in the top 10 if they weren't. So it's like, we're not going to come on the show and be like, number eight, CeeDee Lamb. He's awesome. All right, number seven. He's awesome too. We're looking at some ways to differentiate and give you information to make an informed decision in your draft. And so I think CeeDee Lamb's a great player. He's 24 years old. I think he's a pretty automatic pick. I think he's a pretty great, consistent option for your team, but there are variables in play for CeeDee Lamb that weren't there last year. And so we need to see what happens there. I'm not particularly, myself, I'm not particularly concerned about Brandon Cooks or Michael Gallup in the offense. You have so many abandoned targets that Dalton Schultz had in the offense last year, but
Starting point is 00:30:40 those are good points. I mean, they are going to be a slower offense. They have a great defense. They were number one in turnovers force last year. They can win a lot of ball games that way. And so, you know, is this a situation where you're going to see maybe less production in the second half of games if they have a lead that they've gotten in the first?
Starting point is 00:31:00 We talked about it with Philly. Maybe that's what you see in this offense. Maybe they're not stretching the field as much in the second half, and they're just on the ground. Something I don't know that I've really thought about, because the offseason narrative has been very fun. Mike McCarthy has provided with the soundbite of saying that they were essentially saying we're scoring too much, we need to run the ball more
Starting point is 00:31:23 and let the defense rest, which it's fun to talk about that. Will they really be able to do that? Now, the offensive line, it's not what it was. I think it'll still be one of the stronger units in the league. But looking at the running back room, Tony Pollard's the guy. Tony Pollard's about two 15. Is it, did he get up to two 15?
Starting point is 00:31:49 I think I'm pretty sure he's two 15. So he's, he's at about two 15. Uh, we know that Ronald Jones is facing, uh, facing a two game suspension. If he even makes the team and Ronald Jones is a smaller guy.
Starting point is 00:32:00 Malik Davis is barely over 200 pounds. Deuce Vaughn is barely over 100 pounds which is i'm joking but like this but also kind of true the size of these players that they have that the cowboys said that and then they're moving forward like this is this is a smaller running back room this is not the the type this is not the archetype of player like Zeke where like we can give him the ball on the ground 20 plus times a game and we know that he's not going to wear down. Like can they actually do that with anybody on this team? I don't know. I don't know. It surprises me too because you would expect another bruiser to be added to this backfield
Starting point is 00:32:41 and it hasn't happened. So something to watch with Dallas. At number seven, Devontae Adams. Yeah. 30 years old, second-round draft pick. Being drafted as the wide receiver, eight. I am at five. Jason at eight, Mike at eight. Last year he was the wide receiver, three.
Starting point is 00:33:01 He led the NFL in percentage of first read targets, which is a new stat from fantasy points that I've really enjoyed looking at. You know, he's been top three in fantasy for three of the past four years. Obviously last year it was with Derek Carr and previously with Aaron Rogers. I don't know if I can make him a, my guy because of where he's being drafted. Absolutely you can.
Starting point is 00:33:28 But I am strongly considering it. Hey, look, we make the rules. Yeah. I don't know if you're aware of this, but we make the rules. What are the official my guy rules? We make the rules for this show. It's in consideration. Okay.
Starting point is 00:33:41 Because I think this is a crazy opportunity to go running back in the first round and maybe draft the best wide receiver in the second round. Like I'm not saying Adams is going to be number one, but he's got as good a chance as anybody to be in the top three, in my opinion. Obviously Jefferson is there, but if, you know, if Adams outperformed chase, wouldn't be surprised. If Adams outperformed Tyreek, wouldn't be surprised.
Starting point is 00:34:05 So that possibility being drafted at wide receiver eight, I'm very bullish. You guys have him at eight where he's being drafted. So you are with the rest of the earth on that one. I'm totally with you on it. Which has to be just Jimmy G. That is where I was going to go. I'm in lockstep with you on the opinion of Devontae Adams, the player. I don't think that he has lost anything.
Starting point is 00:34:27 It was a great season, but you did have certainly some games where you're like, what the heck is going on? Why can't Devontae Adams catch a target here? But Jimmy Garoppolo has, in his career, been a I need yards after catch. Like this is how my wide receivers produce. This is what he did in San Francisco. It's quick where a pass is close to the line of scrimmage. Let my wide receivers work.
Starting point is 00:34:58 If that shift happens, can Devontae Adams still get it done? As where last year with Derek Carr, this was like big, big A dots, average depth of target for Devontae Adams. His yards per catch were the highest of his career, I believe. Yeah, that's true. By a wide margin. Yes. And he was a touchdown machine as well. So my concerns are all related to jimmy garoppolo mixing in is he going to mesh
Starting point is 00:35:29 with what davante adams needs let me let me put this in your brain as one area where he may overcome an a dot issue and see if you agree his career catch percentage is 66%. From the time he became an elite player with Aaron Rodgers, his catch percentage was 68%. Last year, he had 180 targets in that offense, which, look, you're not going to have as high a catch percentage when your average depth of target is deep. He caught 100 passes out of 180. That was like 56%.
Starting point is 00:36:01 If he's getting the ball closer to the line of scrimmage and he's getting 180 targets, the PPR numbers are going to make up for some of that ADOT. So I think that you're going to end up in 3-5 with him. I just don't fear Jimmy Garoppolo in contrast to Derek Carr that much. I would agree with you
Starting point is 00:36:20 in general. He's not going from greatness to terribleness. They're near each other. The one concern I have is touchdowns. 14 last year. Exactly. He had 14 touchdowns, and I do think that that is different.
Starting point is 00:36:42 When you get in the red zone, the red zone work, I would trust Eric Carr more than I would trust Jimmy Garoppolo. Double digit, six of seven years. Devontae Adams is awesome, and he is loud. He will demand targets. He will have 160 targets. So if you've got talent and you've got opportunity, that's great for fantasy football
Starting point is 00:37:06 he's not costing what he usually costs which is a first round pick so I think there is value here but I I would be surprised if he finishes inside the top five just because I don't expect him to keep the double digit touchdown streak going so Kyle just shared this stat with us that nine of the 14 touchdowns for Devontae Adams were 20-plus yards or more. Like that's a monster score where can Jimmy Garoppolo do that? I know the NFL, the Raiders are betting on it at least. They're betting that Jimmy Garoppolo is a good starting quarterback. Is he?
Starting point is 00:37:44 Like he was playing with Kyle Shanahan who basically every quarterback except for Trey Lance that we see start for Kyle Shanahan, they're very adequate. The offense does it. As long as the quarterback doesn't screw up, the offense will take care of itself
Starting point is 00:38:01 where I don't think that's... The offense isn't going to take care of it for him with the Raiders. Jimmy Garoppolo is going to have to carry. Can he do it where I don't think that's the offense isn't going to take care of it for him with the Raiders Jimmy Garoppolo is going to have to carry can he do it I don't know yeah we're going to find out I think I'm on the side of yes sure and I understand doubting Jimmy G no question number six A.J. Brown Eagles wide receiver the wide receiver six in ADP right now, top of the second round. We all have them ranked the same. And last year it was massive volume.
Starting point is 00:38:32 He had 146 targets. That was a career high for him. The previous years had been 84, 106, 105. He's dealing with Devonta Smith on the other side, who had 136 targets himself. Dallas Goddard on and off the field last year. But, you know, A.J. Brown is a force. He's a physical dominator. You can throw the ball up to him.
Starting point is 00:38:53 You can throw those sideline, you know, almost jump balls that he ends up winning. There were so many times last year, and I know because I saw the look on Jason's face, where that ball went up and you just knew what was going to happen. so many times last year, and I know because I saw the look on Jason's face, where that ball went up and you just knew what was going to happen. A.J. Brown is just bigger than you, stronger than you, faster than you, and that's been the case. So, you know, where does it go right?
Starting point is 00:39:17 Where does it go wrong for A.J. Brown this year? We got him at six. We obviously think it's going to go pretty well. Yeah, it's going to go pretty well yeah it's gonna go great i mean it's just this is a guy who his first two years in the league was a top 15 wide receiver for fantasy while averaging fewer than 100 targets and now he's in a position where he's getting 140 plus targets he's just too good he's in his prime He's got a great quarterback. So how does it go wrong? Injuries.
Starting point is 00:39:47 End of case. He caught 10 of Jalen Hurts' 22 passing touchdowns. So, you know, could he lose a couple of those? I think, yeah. I mean, that could happen. Goddard or Devonta Smith, variables. But, yeah, it's going to be a really smooth ride for A.J. Brown this year outside of injury. And the nice thing is with those targets, what we saw for probably the first time in his career was consistency.
Starting point is 00:40:16 He's always been a high upside. He can go and finish as the wide receiver one for a week and dominate down the field. But now, you know, over his last 17 games, we have him scored with an A in consistency, 76.5% of his games above that threshold of good games. That is much higher than even Devontae Adams with 180 targets. So I really don't see how it goes wrong outside of injury. I'm very confident drafting A.J. Brown. I believe that he is as close to a lock to be a top 10 wide receiver as you could possibly be. And, you know, if you say, could he be the wide receiver one overall? Yeah, he's got the talent.
Starting point is 00:41:02 He's got the skill. Yeah, he scores 15 times he will be yeah that's what i mean that that'll happen and then when we're we're splitting hairs with these wide receivers it's not a terrible thing to look at the first four games just to see what's going on with their schedule aj brown will be playing at the patriots but then he will play be playing the minnesota vikings at tampa bay and washington That's three juicy matchups. And then just to compare to Devontae Adams, who will be playing at Denver, at Buffalo, Pittsburgh, at the Chargers. So Devontae Adams could be a buy low by week three.
Starting point is 00:41:40 Yeah, but you know what you just showed me? You showed me that once again, the Eagles that first month, they don't get second halves. They don't get to throw the ball. They don't need second halves. I know. I mean, it was good last year without second halves. You want a title with first halves.
Starting point is 00:41:53 We don't need you to get a second half. Number five is a player that A.J. Brown has entered this category, which is elite quarterback combined with elite production over time means they're automatic and stefan diggs is in that category right now comes in at number five i'm at six jason and mike at five being drafted at the end of the first round he's played three seasons now with the bills there is so much consistency in this offense head coach quarterback you know j Josh Stallion himself, season averages with Buffalo 161. That's the targets.
Starting point is 00:42:27 112 receptions, 1,396 yards, and 9.7 touchdowns. So, yes, please. Yeah, you just kind of don't pass on Diggs because of his tweets. Well, okay. Maybe there's more answers to this at this Mad Lib. Don't pass on Stephon Diggs because he keeps doing it. That is something that happens in fantasy. You take the sexier name of the unknown whoever.
Starting point is 00:42:53 Don't pass on Diggs just because it's kind of like his elite play has become routine. Yeah, you're looking at Garrett Wilson. You're like, what if he's Stefan Diggs? No, Stefan Diggs is still. He's Stefan Diggs exactly no Stefan Diggs is he's already Diggs he's still there he still will be him for what he is he is him he is him for at least one more year yeah it's like Garrett Wilson can he get to 1500 yards oh that'd be awesome it's like dig uh Diggs is sitting over there going like I had 1535 yards I had do it every year. I had 1,429 yards. So, yeah. And the competition target-wise is not impressive.
Starting point is 00:43:29 Like, we hope James Cook is good. We hope Dalton Kincaid is good. We hope Gabe the Babe. We hope Gabe the Babe. That's a nickname. It's there. Brooks did it. No, it doesn't.
Starting point is 00:43:40 Are our nicknames good, Mike? I stand behind most of them. The dump truck? Oh, that's great. That's top tier. That was great. And I got to give credit where it's due. That was Kyle.
Starting point is 00:43:51 Yeah, now how do you feel about it? You mean blame. You got to give blame. No, credit. You don't want the tweets. Gabe the babe. All the offensive weapons, Khalil Shakir and other players, they are all projected.
Starting point is 00:44:04 We hope they're okay. But when push comes to shove, Diggs will be the guy. And what's really cool is he was very upset with his targets last year. It's ridiculous. He had 154 targets and he was like. He saw Adams with 180. Yeah. And he's like, I'm not coming.
Starting point is 00:44:20 I'm not showing up for first day of camp. I'm going to send a message because I'm unhappy with my role in the offense. Your role is as a superstar. Stephon Diggs was out indefinitely. That's true. At that time. They didn't know. It was one day.
Starting point is 00:44:36 When you hear him complaining for a team that he's that good with that good of a quarterback, he's got the dream scenario for any wide receiver in football. Paid well. Great quarterback. Clear number one. Piles of targets of targets still unhappy don't understand it but it's just a it's like one of those wide receivers stay hungry like someday they'll look at the dna of wide receivers under a microscope and they'll find that gene that just gets mad at things it's discontent yeah but i do love at wide, I love a squeaky wheel. I mean, I love it.
Starting point is 00:45:07 That's why Adams will not have fewer than 175 targets. Yeah. Because he'll punch another photographer. Ran into, ran into. Okay. Tyreek Hill comes in at number four. I've got him at two. He's my second favorite wide receiver in fantasy this season.
Starting point is 00:45:26 You guys have him at four, which is where he's being drafted um he's been a top six fantasy wide receiver in five of six years he is the definition of you get it all it's not I'm on raw where you get the PPR not the touchdowns and not the big plays it's not you know uh even what you got with Devontae Adams last year. It was like, oh, it's a two-touchdown game and big plays, and then where was he in the second half? Like Tyreek Hill is, like, it's programmed into Tua's brain. He goes back. It's Tyreek first read and also Tyreek last read because when the play breaks down,
Starting point is 00:46:01 Tyreek is somehow 15 yards away from anybody else down the field. I rewatched the six touchdowns in that Baltimore game, the big comeback. Right. Tyreek Hill is so far away from people in these plays that it doesn't seem fair. Like Tua can't even throw far enough to get to him? Well, no, just that his separation from the defenders is laughable. It's like you're watching a flag football game for your kids where they forgot one kid was back behind there
Starting point is 00:46:30 and they just run wild and free. He's a monster. Like I said earlier in the show, highest targets, highest yards, and receptions of his career, 31% targets per outrun last year for Tyreek Hill. He did all of that. Set those numbers with Tua being injured at times. So, you know, it's not hard to say good things about the top four wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:46:58 It's just that there were really only, other than the final week of the year, week 18, which you weren't playing him, there was really only other than the final week of the year, week 18, which you weren't playing him. There was really one game, one, the entire year that he actually hurt you at all. The rest of them, it was like, I mean, he finished number four at the position five different weeks, number two at the position, two different weeks. It was a really good year for Tyreek Hill.
Starting point is 00:47:21 Yeah, it was. 12% bust. If you're going to say anything bad, it's ironic. Some of his best games were, as far as targets, you talk about he had those times where he finished as the number four overall wide receiver. Two of those games were without Tua. When the backup came in, those were really bad Jalen Waddell games,
Starting point is 00:47:46 and you just threw the ball 15 targets, 14 targets to Tyreek Hill because, I mean, if I'm coming in, I know what I'm doing. I'm going, where's that dude that's wide open and faster than everyone? But it's not like he had bad games with Tua. He had good games the whole season. I do think his, I wonder if Tua is there for all 17 games, if that is, it's great for Tyreek Hill, but I wonder if that's almost his, maybe not his peak, just because it's better for Waddle as the ball might get spread around a little bit from a quality quarterback, but there's no complaints you you can't stop him he's too fast really nice um opportunity at least in week one against the chargers cooper cup mike he sits at three right now i i got him at four mike and jason at three yeah and it is unfortunately a little bit scary
Starting point is 00:48:45 as if you're just tuning back into fantasy. Yeah, if you're just tuning back into fantasy football and getting ready, Cooper Cup has a hamstring injury. He injured it in training camp. They're calling him day-to-day. The quote is he'll be back in the right time and stuff like that. So, I mean, I don't know what Mike LaFleur is doing here.
Starting point is 00:49:09 Just say indefinite. Yeah, taken care of. We got a word to describe what you're saying. Yeah, we don't know when he will be back. Hamstring injuries that shut players down in training camp historically are very scary. It's so hard when the upside is so insanely high. The upside is the overall number one player.
Starting point is 00:49:31 Cooper Cup had not lost it. Despite what the Rams were doing last year, like it was a bad product on the field, they were not a good team, Cooper Cup was still by far dominating. He was the number one wide receiver in points per game over Justin Jefferson by a few points before he got hurt. That was the separation. That's the upside.
Starting point is 00:49:52 Let me test. But, yoo-hoo. Sorry, I just want you to know the pace that he was on because we're talking about all these numbers with all these great wide receivers. It's hard to find complaints. The pace he was on last year before he got injured. Guess his reception pace. Let's go.
Starting point is 00:50:09 160. 153 receptions. All right. 1,700 yards and 12.8 touchdowns. I mean, just the best of the best. He finished in the top 24 and he played nine games. He played like eight games. Let me test hamstring worries.
Starting point is 00:50:26 You're drafting today. Yeah. You're staring down other running backs where you had been drafting Cooper Cup. Eckler Cup. Oh, man. I think I still take Cooper. I'm drafting today. I'm taking Eckler.
Starting point is 00:50:43 I'm drafting today. Why the risk when you get Eckler? I think I Eckler Eckler's worth it Kelsey no you're not going Kelsey over cup no I'd be willing to do that Mike uh yeah I mean I guess I need I need to move Tyreek Hill above him because I would take Tyreek Bijon cup I would that that's the Bichon. Cup. That's the break for me. That's where I would. Wait, how could you not take Eckler over Cup? Or you did? He did.
Starting point is 00:51:11 He did. I said I was going to. I have Eckler just a few spots lower than you guys. Bichon? I think I'd still take Cooper Cup. Diggs? That's a good question. That's a really tough one.
Starting point is 00:51:23 Based on rankings right now, you would. But if your push came to shove and you're staring that down risk-wise, it's a really tough one. Based on rankings right now, you would, but if you have push came to shove and you're staring that down risk-wise, it's scary. It is. I think I would take Stephon Diggs over him. Don't draft till later, people. Jamar Chase at number two, also known as Mike's number one overall wide receiver right now.
Starting point is 00:51:41 Which I just found out this morning. I was unaware that he was your number one. He's been there for a long time i love it okay jason you have him at two i got him at three last year missed some time he's a superstar he is he is a superstar and the reason i have him number one i think there was uh a lot of meat left on the bone there for Jamar Chase. I mean, the fact that he jumped from 81 receptions in 17 games as a rookie, he had 87 catches in just 12 appearances last year. Like, he was already being used more, right?
Starting point is 00:52:24 Like, you saw the target share jump from 24% up to 29%. 29%, that's an elite-level target share. If you're right around that 20%, 30%, like you're going to be incredible when you combine the talent of Jamar Chase. And then you also had kind of the strange anomaly of the yards per catch dipped from 18 down to 12. I think 18 is kind of an strange anomaly of the yards per catch dipped from 18 down to 12. I think 18's kind of an outlier, but 12 seems too low to me for Jamar Chase.
Starting point is 00:52:52 Perhaps it's a product of just the way that the NFL defenses are shifting to that shell. Also, the quantity of receptions that you liked about him, that's naturally going to happen. Right, but I think that 12 is too low. That's true. I think he can see that target pace and still be up in the 13-14 range.
Starting point is 00:53:10 Yeah, he could be at 15 like Devontae Adams who had 180 targets and still ended up at 15. What about those bus games though, Mike? He's sitting at 0%. Concerning? I don't even know how that's possible. 12 games, no bus. That seems impossible for a wide receiver.
Starting point is 00:53:27 All wide receivers have bad games, but Jamar Chase is too good. And when you get 30% of targets coming from Joe Burrow, they're great targets. They're on point. They're leading you ahead of defenders. His pace last year was 190 targets. I i mean that's not what you thought of jamar chase beforehand and i don't i absolutely do not believe i don't i don't believe i don't believe daddy i don't i think there's what is that i don? I don't... I don't believe it.
Starting point is 00:54:06 I don't know what it is, man. It just sounds funny. I do not believe at all that we have seen Jamar Chase's best season. There's no way in his career... Yeah, I agree. ...right now, and he's 23 years old let me share something yeah and let me show you upside okay and and the difference you need to understand out there the the massive gap between Jamar Chase and T Higgins in terms of involvement in the offense and actual talent
Starting point is 00:54:39 T Higgins 18% target share Jamar Chase is almost 30% red zone targets 12 for T Higgins, 18% targets here. Jamar Chase is almost 30%. Red zone targets, 12 for Tee Higgins. Jamar Chase had 26 despite being injured. Okay, that 26 turned into how many red zone touchdowns? Five. For Higgins, it was four in 12. So there's opportunity on those red zone targets. We talked about DK Metcalf. It would be kind of wrong to say that his touchdown upside is there,
Starting point is 00:55:07 and then you look at those red zone targets for Jamar Chase and don't say that he could put up 18 touchdowns. That's in Jamar Chase's range of outcomes. He had nine last year. It would be very easy for him to put up 12 to 18. DJ Moore has started playing in the NFL in 2018. Jamar Chase has more career touchdowns than DJ Moore. Pour one out for DJ.
Starting point is 00:55:31 That's just, yeah. But, yeah, he's well worth consideration. Like Jefferson, who we're about to talk about, Hill, Cup, Chase, Adams. All could be number one this year. All could be number one this year. All could finish number one. It's at least worth mentioning for Jamar Chase. Again, if you're just tuning in, you may have missed it.
Starting point is 00:55:53 Joe Burrow suffered a calf strain last week. Was that when that happened? So Joe Burrow will basically be shut down until the season actually starts. We don't love a franchise quarterback having a calf strain on a calf. If you looked at the video, he already had a sleeve on that calf, so he knew something was wrong with it. So that can be a slight concern for if you're out there and you want to completely avoid any risk with these top picks. Yeah, I don't worry at all about the lack of preseason or anything like that.
Starting point is 00:56:29 Yeah. That doesn't scare me at all. It's just a matter of there is a chance of re-aggravation. Yeah. Re-aggravation and tweak one. Tweak one would be bad. Yeah. I don't want to see it.
Starting point is 00:56:43 Justin Jefferson is number one. Is that Ms. Doubtfire? Oh, yeah, it is. Is that what that is? I don't want to see it. Justin Jefferson is number one. Is that Miss Doubtfire? Oh, yeah, it is. Is that what that is? I don't think so. Yeah, that's Miss Doubtfire. No, she's a voice. I don't.
Starting point is 00:56:52 She's a higher voice, dear. She's up here. Well, the pronunciation of the word don't, though, is what we're getting at. That's just Scottish to me. I don't. Or is that Irish? I don't know. No, that's Scottish. scottish to me a dude i don't um or is that irish i don't know no that's scottish give me doubtfire again i don't okay thank you justin jefferson is number one yeah real bold
Starting point is 00:57:16 um look i believe he's a good wide receiver i think he's gonna be getting yards and targets in this offense um he's uh good at catching the ball did you just say you believe he's gonna get yards and targets yeah yeah like when i watch him yeah i see a wide receiver that i believe in and i think that when he's on the field, he's just really nice. Incredibly, Adam Thielen is vacating the second most routes in the NFL. So, you know, Addison's a rookie. And KJ Osborne is a wide receiver, two and a half.
Starting point is 00:57:59 And so everything's guaranteed for Jefferson. He has the most targets through any player's first three seasons of the NFL at 476. I don't think Madison's as good as Cook, especially in the passing game. There's just nothing to stop Justin Jefferson this year. And so he is the safest pick. If you don't want to stress, just take him. Yeah, it's his rookie year. He was the wide receiver six.
Starting point is 00:58:25 Then he was the wide receiver for last year is the wide receiver one with 1809 yards. He had fewer touchdowns than he should have. Like he has positive touchdown regression. He could be better than he was last year. 28 red zone targets and six red zone touchdowns. Yeah. And this will be very surprising, but
Starting point is 00:58:50 he's having a great camp. People are saying... Jefferson? Justin Jefferson is having a great camp. They're just saying he looks really good. Get that hype chain going for Justin Jefferson. Can I make him a my guy? Yeah, you sure can.
Starting point is 00:59:05 That one, I think, is going to be a little tougher to really justify. That would be a fail, a my guy fail, if he finished at two. Yeah. The only way you could make him a my guy is if it's an ironclad guarantee that he's the number one. Yeah. It's tough for someone to be a my guy where, like, the – what, you have 10 out of 12 teams just simply won't even have the opportunity
Starting point is 00:59:32 to draft him? No, I guess I won't do it then. All right, that is it for today's episode of the podcast. Done with the wide receivers, the running back rankings countdown. Next week, we'll be with you every day. The running back rankings countdown next week. We'll be with you every day. Goodbye. Bye-bye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
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