Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Trending or Ending + NEVER AGAIN Players - Fantasy Football Podcast for 3/18

Episode Date: March 18, 2025

Fantasy Football show for Mar 18, 2025. Which player trends will continue in 2025? Patrick Mahomes, Kyren Williams, rookie TEs, and others discussed! Plus, “Never Again!” fantasy football draft picks from Andy, Mike, and Jason. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.Get the lowest price on the 2025 UDK at UltimateDraftKit.com - Instant access to the Dynasty Pass with the UDK+Introduction - 0:00:00Never Again Players - 0:02:27Trending or Ending - 0:18:11Patrick Mahomes - 0:19:28Kyren Williams - 0:27:55Alvin Kamara - 0:34:40Rookie TEs - 0:39:20Outro - 0:45:15Connect with the show:Subscribe on YouTubeVisit us on the WebSupport the ShowFollow on XFollow on InstagramJoin our Discord

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Oh welcome in Tuesday March 18th the fantasy footballers Mike Wright Jason Moore. I'm Andy Holloway Happy to be with you Fun show today Good quick question, and we've got NFL news that will catch you up on next week We're recording this show a little bit early So if you know we have a trickling in of a few more free agent signings. We'll cover it then we have They heard the free agent part two.

Yeah, there was not that much left. The trickling in can just trickle right into the sewer. Right, it was not a frenzy, is what we said. Some things to talk about, but we'll catch up on the news next week. We have trending or ending on the show today. That's gonna be the main event. We'll talk about some player trends

and whether you believe that they will continue or not. It's always fun to debate these. I saw the first name on the list and it was, it was a player we were talking about last off season as maybe having, you know, I know Jason had some confidence in a change and it didn't happen. Infinite sadness right now. So we'll get into that.

A reminder, the giveaway right now, assign Drake London Jersey at footclangiveaway.com. It's free to enter. And the Ultimate Draft Kit available at ultimatedraftkit.com. You can get it at pre-order pricing right this minute. If you're watching on YouTube, make sure you subscribe, click that bell.

If you are listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, click that follow button. Leave us a review if you have a couple of moments. It really helps the show out and we'd appreciate it. And you can follow us on X at the FF Ballers. Jason is at Jason FFL. Mike is at FF Hitman and I'm at Andy Holloway on there. Quick question of the day, it's it's a fun one. We've all been

there. Kyle on X writes in and says, who is a player you said, in all caps, never again yet still continue to pick in your drafts. Oh man, for me, it's a Breeze Hall. You're still. So, still on which side? What do you mean by still? I mean still that you will draft this, man. I don't know that you've said a kind word about Breeice Hall and Bitterness like our years Yeah, well, I don't know that he's given me anything to say yeah, we're back

Yeah, well that this is this is the type of thing where it's like I do you feel like you did this last year Is that what you're saying is that you felt like you I've been disappointed in Him I was disappointed this this past year dealt with it a lot And I feel like I want to be out, but I'm not entirely sure I'm out because He has a talented player. He is a good pass catcher You know and I'm still holding our be one being drafted on underdog is he an RV or be a lot of back end These are just the kind of things that you say to a man who? being drafted on underdog. Is he an RB1? RB11. Yeah, back end. These are just the kind of things that you say to a man

who tries to quit something and can't quit. That feels a little high. But I mean, we have seen him be so special on the NFL field, and he is still so young. What's the trick in changing expectations for a player? Because I think that's actually the greatest challenge that we're talking about here is you expect you have expectations for a player's level, tier, whatever you want to call it, and maybe they're not what you thought they were,

but they are still valuable, but you have to like, do you feel like you can ever get rid of those expectations because you have been so invested in Ries Hall in the past like that's why he's the yeah on a personal level I can get rid of those expectations for sure. I don't have the expectations that he's going to Be the number one running back, you know two years ago. Who's the number four running back till he has a big week one And then oh we're back yeah, but I You know, it's it's just a matter of you're right it's about the expectations and I think that people need to adjust a little bit quicker and lower so. I feel like putting him down at RB11 is that's a big adjustment. Would you Mike draft him at RB11 do you you think that that's, you know, what is your expectation for his finish?

RB11. I would not. You won't? Sorry, I would not at RB11, no. Trying to pull it up so I could see who's going. Not with Braylon Allen there and Justin Fields taking over. He finished at RB17 last year. His yards for Kerry have gone down every year

for the last three efficiency wise. Somehow Bressal has no thousand yard seasons yet. So you've also got an injury, you know, year one, yes, it was an injury. Well, not a thousand on the ground, right? Right. I mean, he has to have a thousand total scrimmage yards. Yes. Najee Harris has four consecutive thousand on the ground seasons.

Yeah. That's all I'm saying. It's one of those things where to me it's adjusted expectations. He also bumbled the ball six times last year. That's crazy. I think they were uninterested. So going right behind Breeze is Kyron, who we're gonna talk about in a second.

I'd much rather have Kyron. Oh yeah. Chase Brown. As it is now. Where things stand right now, I would take Chase Brown. But Chase Brown going at RB 13. And James Cook, I would take James Cook as as well Brown to 13 is people are hedging of Just in case Cincinnati drafts a running back. Come here is behind him

Can walkers behind him? Oh Man, see I don't actually know Maybe I just don't like that. Hey, I don't like that area for breeze new head coach, new quarterback. I'm out! Pfft. Ha ha ha ha ha ha. Until draft day.

Yeah, I mean TBD. Okay, so I mean Breeze last year, 209, 209 attempts, 876 yards on the ground. Are you Braylon Allen fans? I like Braylon Allen, yes I like Braylon Allen, yes. Like Braylon Allen could take over, you think? No, no, no, no. You don't believe that.

No, I think he's a NFL player. Isn't this, won't it? I mean, like a guy who should be an NFL player. He plays in the NFL! I mean, we could say that about every guy who's in the NFL. Isn't this the final year before they have to make a fifth year option decision on Brice Hall? Brice Hall is a second rounder. Oh, yeah. He doesn't even have it. Yeah, so he is in...

Wait, so he'll go, he'll be free agency. Are we year four? Yeah, this is gonna be year four. Yeah, so this is contract year. I just wonder... Yeah, there was all the reports of the, like, they don't know if they're gonna try and sign him early. That feels like it hangs over a little bit in terms of how you might use him. They're gonna make him work. I'm almost there with Kyler. And I am with you. Are you? Dude. I think I'm at the never again. Last year. It's hard to pass on Kyler in the middle rounds because of what. Should be? What should? I think that's the right way to put it. It's not even could. It's it is it should be, what should, I think that's the right way to put it.

It's not even could it's it is it should be. Yes. Yes. It's like when he doesn't perform, that is a complete shock because of the tool set and the, the fact he can run the football. And yet it happens so often where, look, I think the real come to Jesus moment on Kyler last year was a dominating victory against Chicago at home. And he was a single digit fantasy quarterback.

It told me that what once was, which was the Cardinals can't win without this exact certain game plan from Kyler Murray with the rushing yardage in the passing game, yeah they can. And they're working to improve their defense again. It's strange, I mean everything goes with the quarterback. I just think, I'm getting close to that point where I don't wanna make him that steal that he should be in the middle rounds, and I might just wanna pass on that and try something else. I mean, half of the first 10 games for Kyler,

he was 20 or more points. This is literally how it always is with Kyler. There's always, like, if you don't want to give that line, go ahead and give, go ahead and tell us where his fantasy finishes have been in the past. Yeah, like on his career? Yeah, go ahead and let us know where he's been before. He started seven, his rookie year.

Yeah, quarterback seven. Has the incredible year where he's the quarterback two. Quarterback two. Almost 4,000 passing yards, over 800 rushing yards. 11 rushing touchdowns, I do not remember that at all. Do you guys remember that? 11 rushing touchdowns? I only remember it right before I draft.

Did that happen? No. That can't be a real stat. I'm throwing that away. Yeah, no, that happened. If you disagree with it, it's gone. How did you? I mean, it was pre-ACL, right?

I mean. Yes, it was pre-ACL. But the next year was five rushing touchdowns. I mean, to go from what he did as a sophomore to where we are now with Kyler is it's extremely disappointing yeah you have thoughts on Kyler Jay this is a perfect answer to the question because when you miss out on the studs at the position and you're looking for someone later, you know, there were only three players who had more rushing yards than Kyler did last year at the quarterback position.

And so that's the type of asset you want in fantasy football. It's the type of ammo that talks you into a pick for sure. Yeah, and I could easily see myself drafting him again. Yeah, because we can all easily see it. It should work. Because it should work. If Marv takes a step. If he takes a step.

You got Trey McBride. If Marv takes a single step forward and becomes a thousand yard and, how many touchdowns was he? Yeah, eight touchdowns, let's see. If he's a thousand and eight and then Trey McBride is doing his thing, like, ugh.

But now you're probably in a category, you know, Kyler's probably going ahead of Herbert, right? I can tell you in just a moment. Let's do the same thing. Kyler in basketball right now is the QB9. Okay. You said Herbert? Yeah.

Yeah, QB13. See, that's why he will continue to be drafted, and maybe he should, but it's because you're like pocket quarterback decision versus the rushing upside of Kyler. Yeah. But what we saw last year in being from Arizona and watching this team, it's like Kyler has games that he looks like the MVP of football Yeah, and then he has games where he starts slow and but don't worry He will also finish that game slow if he won't change mid game It's unbelievable how bad he can be in certain games where it looks like he can't see the field It looks like he can't see over his offensive line or know what's happening, but then other games

He carves up a defense, you know, like he's brilliant. 47.1% of his games, this last, of his last 17 games, he scored 20 fantasy points. That's a C in consistency. It has been a very not fun process to have Kyler. And so this is one of those where, yeah, you you you don't want that experience you Fantasy shouldn't hitch your fantasy team to Kyler. See but at wagon Yes, yeah, but you but it But where he's getting drafted There's just not other people that have that dual threat upside stretch run last year in playoffs for Kyler. Quarterback 23-18, 11-22, 13-14.

Oh dude, Stroud's at QB 17? Oh man, people are mad at C.J. Stroud. Name some quarterbacks around. Going around Stroud. Yeah, right above him. Right above Stroud would be. Is Trevor Lawrence above him? No, one pick behind.

Drake May. Drake May is ahead of Stroud. Dak. Bo above Stroud would be. Is Trevor Lawrence above him? No, one pick behind. Drake May. Drake May is ahead of Stroud. Dak. Bo Nix. Bo Knox. Bo Nix is QB7. People are all in on Bo Nix. Are you going with Bo Nix just to detour here?

Is that how much do you think of him like you thought of Stroud? Or do you have more confidence in Bo Nix? I think I have more confidence in Bo Nix. Because Stroud had a rookie year that was more impressive than Bo Nix, but Bo Nix had a great year. Not for fantasy.

Stroud did not have a fantasy productive rookie season that was really valuable. Was Nix actually better as a rookie? Yeah, Nix had a very good. 316 points, I'm looking at this real quick. Yeah, but it was because Bo Nix runs the ball again you need that dual threat he had 430 rushing yards. Oh man it's actually a big difference yeah. Oh no I guess not that big. 275 to

360. That was a roller coaster there. Yeah I looked at last year for Stroud and he was at 220. But 275 versus 316 and half point that's a big gap four point quarterback sorry I just wanted to see that number that was just the that is a shocking correction to me on Stroud it feels like it could be an overcorrection but you also have to keep in mind they lost tank Dell yeah they're you know the the the wide receivers are worse their offensive line right now they've deleted it, they've traded their star left tackle. So it's hard to imagine Stroud being a fantasy star.

But you'd both lock in Kyler Murray over CJ Stroud. I would. Yes. Yeah. So the never again player that you continue to pick, Mike, I said Kyler, Jason said Breeze. Who's your name? Kyler's a great answer. For me, it's Jalen Waddle.

Writing's already on the wall. Because he is good. He is a good player. And three years. That'll get you. I mean, honestly, for fantasy football, it is one of the things that I want in my players is I want to believe that they're

a good player. And I fully believe that Jalen Watto is a good to great wide receiver. He was the wide receiver seven in fantasy three years ago. We've had the two down years. This is the Terry McClory and DJ Moore argument, which is like, we all said never again to those guys. We kept drafting them because you knew they were actually good players. And then eventually the situation corrected itself for DJ Moore and Terry and we had

incredible fantasy football seasons for them. I don't know what the Miami offense is gonna be. Are we going to have any shift back to them pushing the field vertically like they were two years ago or is it is this the new normal for them where they they want to run a lot and they want to throw the ball short to HN and John Smith but Waddle is good so I will continue to draft him. Yeah you feel that the temptation will not be resisted. Man. No. 23% of his game. Oh it was the benchmark.

That is a consistency score of an F. I'd give him lower if I could. Can we can we F-? Can we G this guy? Yeah so I that that's that's gonna be a tough one to draft. Wived Jalen Waddle what if I told you that right now in best ball he's the wide receiver 31? Okay, let's do the same experiment. Who's going right above him? Right above him would be Christian Olave, Jordan Addison, Rashid Rice.

I would take all three over Waddle. Yeah, I would too. Rice is- Who's going behind him? Rice is difficult with the legal situation that we just don't know yet. Yeah, I would too rice is going behind them rice is difficult with the the the legal situation that we just Don't know yet. Yeah, who's going right behind? Courtland Sutton, I think I would take Sutton over waddle Chris Godwin who will probably rapidly rise Yeah, he will not stay at 33 and then Pickens is at 34

Would you go waddle or Pickens? I think I'd go Waddle. Both would, I'd make a gross face with both picks. Yup. I'd be like, mmm. But he's good. He is good. He is good. Look, you talk about a course correction on Stroud, that's gonna be the reaction to Miami's

offense. It's like, Tua was a very good quarterback at the end of the year, but their fantasy production was very, very bad. Yes. Like, I think he was like a record-setting completion percentage over the very back part of the year, if I'm not mistaken. Well, when you're just slightly tossing a ball forward.

Even fantasy wise he had QB 2, 5, and 4 in back to back to back weeks. But it's seven at completion, but 317 yards. 365 yards. 331 yards. How are you putting up three straight games of over 300 passing yards? When he came back?

When you're not going down the field. 74% complete. Shanu Smith, baby. I mean 74%. But their points four as a team down nine a game from number two to 22. Open it back up. They've got to figure some stuff out. Well, we'll be talking about offenses and whether they're willing to open it back up here

in a second. We'll take a break and we'll jump into trending or ending. All right, Andy, Mike and Jason here. The fantasy football is ready to break down some interesting numbers and some interesting players and what we believe going into 2025. Trending or ending? Yeah the graphics are on an absolute heater right now. The graphics have been

very good. Somebody has decided to step it up. Yeah. About time. And I don't know why, it took 10 years. All right, I mean, this is what happens when you hire a graphics person. Oh, to work here in the studio? Your old guy who's doing graphics is like, uh-oh. Uh-oh.

Getting a little thirsty? I gotta step up my game. I will commit more than six minutes to this one. Oh, I can still see the picture of the, uh, the judges, the judges hair over my hair. That was the beginning of the end. That was all right. Uh, trending or ending.

Uh, this is going to be a big discussion here. These are all, by the way, we're looking at multi-season trends. So two years. The last two years, are these trends continuing or are they ending? And it's Patrick Mahomes. He's had two consecutive years with fewer than 30 passing touchdowns that has moved him from the must-have always- You could say fewer than 28 passing touchdowns that has moved him from the must-have always. You could say fewer than 28 passing touchdowns.

Sure, yeah it's been a big adjustment for the Chiefs. Now they were Super Bowl champions in 2023, runners-up in 2024, but you've got a fantasy quarterback that was the QB 8 and this year the QB 11. You talked about our consistency rankings. He is in F 23% of the time above 20 points. We're talking about a player that was, that was the, a huge part of the conversation every week in fantasy to a player that was barely talked about last year, right? I mean, this was not somebody we were eager to start at any point frustrated to a player that was barely talked about last year, right?

I mean, this was not somebody we were eager to start at any point, frustrated to watch the games. You talked about Miami not airing it out. That is the story in Kansas City. Kyler was better. I mean, for how, we just had a whole tirade of how the season felt awful for fantasy purposes for Kyler. And it was a better overall fantasy season than Patrick Mahomes. And it is terrifying.

He won't get over-corrected like Stroud. Where is Mahomes going? An underdog right now, QB6. I think that sounds about fair for someone who can do what Mahomes is doing, but you're three years removed from that actually happening. And so, Jay, are you taking that chance at QB6, or is this who it is? Is this the trend? So the issue that I have, there's like two different things you can look at. One that

makes it feel like a trend and one that makes it feel like it's going to end. If you want to look at touchdowns, right? Touchdowns are one of those things that some years you have a bunch, some years it's down. He went from 50 to 26 in Yeah. In years two and three of his career. So they fluctuate and then back up to 38, 37. Yeah, and you go back and you look at Tom Brady. Tom Brady went 50 in 2007. The next full season, 28. He wasn't bad at football.

That was halfway through his career. Then 36, 39, 34, then 25. Like those things happen. The touchdowns are not as Predictable as all the other stats and they're supposed to be for Patrick Mahomes But I believe his touchdowns will rise I think those will come back up the issue that makes it feel like a trend is

The style of football that he's playing and the yards per attempt. That's one of those things where he was always living in the eights. You know, 8.1, 8.8, 8.3, 8.1. Those were his yards per attempt and that's just how he played football. And he'd bypassed the sevens basically and now last year 6.8 yards per attempt. He didn't even hit 4,000 passing yards, so it's really hard for me to take him at quarterback six. Well, and combined yards per attempt going down and total attempts declining for consecutive years.

So, you're passing less for fewer yards. While winning Super Bowls and getting to Super Bowls. So, this isn't like a, we've got to fix. The Kansas City Chiefs and Andy Reid are not thinking that they have a problem to fix. I agree with you. Because they don't have a problem to fix. See, some people think because of the embarrassing Super Bowl loss, that means that they're going to completely try to reset the offense.

I don't know if that's true. I think genuinely, I don't think Patrick Mahomes is playing at the same level. He's still great, but I don't think he's playing at the same level. And I don't think we've had one single conversation where we blamed him for Travis Kelce's production. Because Kelce's got the crutch of,

you can automatically just point at age. But we've never once said, okay, could Mahomes have had anything to do with Kelsey's decline in production? Interesting. Yeah, and when you watch, he does not look as good. You know, there were a bunch of plays, obviously the Super Bowl, that pass rush

really ate him alive. You don't wanna make one game be who he is, but he did not look as good as he used to. If you want to look at a more objective metric for the quarterback play, his passer rating has been lower the past two years than the previous five by a decent margin. It's not bad.

He's still great, but this is a fantasy discussion on whether the trend continues or ends, and I am on the trend continues category. I am as well. I will not be drafting him at quarterback six. So QB6, Andy, you'd be out on that? Yeah, that's too high.

That's just too high. Some context here would be, so you could bypass Mahomes and go Bo Nix, Baker, Kyler. Oh, then Mahomes at six, that's a tricky situation. When you just read those names, what that said to me was, I want a top five quarterback. And we're always late round quarterback and trying to find the steel at the end. And maybe there will be some that are much later that I think have the value

to use my early picks on more premium positions. But at the same time, the way that these mobile quarterbacks, the Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts over the last couple years, Lamar Jackson this last year, Jaden Daniels, they are really the ones on rosters winning championships. They really are. And so Jaden Daniels, late round, great, that works. But you've got to find that this year and fantasy drafters were getting smarter and smarter and smarter every single year. There's not the glaring obvious mistakes where you're like, that's clearly who it should be.

I mean, obviously this last year there was one and that was one of your my guys. It felt like we returned a little bit to finding that nugget with Jaden Daniels, because it was like Lamar and Allen in years past. Felt like we got back there a little bit with, but you obviously have to pick the right one. It wasn't, I mean people were drafting Stroud, people were drafting Anthony Richardson, and those were not the right ones.

This player in the tier could be too low, but I think it's interesting. Who was better passing stats at the end of the year. We're talking, you know yardage and touchdowns My homes or Matthew Stafford who has just added Devante Adams. So it's a Tracted Cooper Cup right Is that addition by subtraction? No, no, no. I'm saying you can't just simply be like he added Devontae Adams. Now his pass, his core is so much better because he also took a massive hit. I'm only juggling because I just know you love that guy, man. Adams

was objectively good last year and Cooper Cup at least for that the end of the season was objectively not. I will still take my homes. Okay. Stafford has the personnel to have big games but he's had that for a while and Stafford still just muddles around. I mean what was his numbers last year? The numbers were not great but you but you have to go back a while. It's the first year when he was with the Rams, he had the sensational almost 5,040 touchdowns. I can't go back with him.

Stafford has not been. 20 touchdowns, 24, 10. That's what I was going to say. It's the touchdown throwing that has been his fantasy problem. Right, but was that a Cooper Cup problem? I think that was a Kyron Williams problem I think you know the touchdowns on the ground when they get near the goal line they're very good at that Kyron Williams trending or ending top six fantasy running back he has finished as the RB six and back-to-back. Oh, no Don't do it. Karen. Don't do it

Jason can see a 666 faster than anybody. I Mean you know your numbers man. Yeah, that's that's scary. Ah Trending or ending Kyron as a top six fantasy running back? When you predict a fantasy finish for a running back, it is about that player, but it's also about your confidence in other players. And I, ugh. I feel like if I say ending, I'm a Kyren hater.

And I feel like I've been labeled that before. So you're going to say trending then? But I'll go in there. Yeah, you're a Kyren hater. You are, and always have been. I guess so. I mean he was... I think the reason you hate him is because 82%

of his games were great. And he has an A consistency. And if you had him you won championships right just once a week after week after week you just kept winning owl how did how did your season go okay it went pretty well but did you have Kyron I did do you you got a trophy? I do. Okay. Well let's just, let's put it to the test real quick cause maybe, maybe I'm wrong.

You're taking Saekwon over him. Yeah. You're taking Gibbs over him. Yes. You're taking Bijan over him. Yes. Are you taking, are you taking A-chan over him?

No. Or Henry? Henry, yeah. Maybe. Henry and Kyron are. Henry and, are you with me on McCaffrey Jay? Are you ready to. Yeah, are you taking CMC? Are you taking CMC? Cause I would take McCaffrey and Kyron. I would take Kyron. You're trending then. Yeah, I'm definitely trending. You know, he was one of those guys- I feel like maybe I should be trending. Going into last year that I was very personally bullish on not being Blake Coram'd, that Kyron was super good for this offense, and that they wanted to use him the way that they did and had success with.

And I am still just as bullish going into this next season, but I love his That that is not very it's not widespread. That is not universal a lot of people have doubts Let me give you some numbers on Kyron and then we'll look at the underdog ADP, which is kind of wild He has led the NFL in each of the following categories as a red zone player Red zone touches percentage of teams rush categories as a red zone player red zone touches percentage of teams rush attempts inside the red zone red rushing touchdowns inside the five which is 14 of them and over the last two years he has 31 total

touchdowns in 28 games played where only Gibbs can match that yeah so that that's what I was talking about under dog 80 is our is 12. But of 46 qualifying running backs with 100 or more carries, Kyron was 44th in explosive rush rate, which is percentage of your carries that go for more than 15 yards. He was 45th in fumbles. He was 34th in yards per carry. Again, over those 46 qualifying running backs

who had the 100 plus carries. So the efficiency, could compare to... Is he a super Nagi? No, no I think he's better than super Nagi. He... I mean based on those numbers you're telling me that Nagi had a higher explosive run rate. Well yeah I mean specifically 15 yard runs or more that's just not really his style of play. When I think of players that are at that level of like you score a bunch of touchdowns, you're super involved in the offense, Najee does come to mind a little bit. That's why I was curious.

I got you. I think he's better than Najee. He's on the cusp of contract situation too, right? Yes. They've at least vocally come out and said they want to get him a long-term deal. Get him a deal. I guess not learned their Todd Gurley lesson. He's at 4.1 a carry. Yeah down from five. Well he won't get Todd Gurley money. No no no I'm just saying don't pay lots of money to extend running backs. I mean 356 total

opportunities last year up from 276 the year before yeah, that's a beast that was you know He had missed some games the year before but that was the year. He ended so strongly There was almost nobody better than him over the back half of the year He was on 378 opportunity pace that year Yeah, I mean and he pretty much hit that Two years ago when he was the running back six, he only played 12 games. All right, I'm switching. Oh! All right.

I'm going trending. I think he's my five or six. And that would put him in trending. Who in the world? So RB12 in basketball? Correct. Give me some of those names ahead of him. Yeah.

Is it like mixing ahead of him He's been in like what like the third round so right ahead of him with it with Breeze Hall But it's all ahead of him. Yeah, Breeze Hall is one spot ahead of him Bucky Irving. That's an interesting one Bucky or Kyron Who's got the higher chance of being the RB one on the year? Bucky or Kyron I being the RB one on the year. Bucky or Kyron. I think Kyron. Cause I'm trying to figure out why he's 12.

Cause in best ball maybe, I feel like they would rank players that they believe could have a higher ceiling somehow. Yeah, I'm telling you, people hate Kyron Williams. Explosive plays do make an impact. I feel like people hated Josh Jacobs. But Josh Jacobs keeps being productive and people hate him too.

Yeah. Yeah, where is Jacobs going? Josh Jacobs at the RB9, an underdog right now. It, the, going- Oh, Ash and Genties up there, yeah. Going from Kyron's sophomore year where he was everything to, he's still great for fantasy football,

but you saw the efficiency dip way back that just that that's usually a pretty big red flag but if this team is committed to him getting that amount of work he can easily do what he did last year and then has room to be better do you what is your formal is it trending or ending for you Mike I gonna, between those two I would say closer to trending. Okay, we'll, we got a couple more names for you after the break. Trending or Ending? Trending or Ending?

Alvin Kamara, the last two years he's averaged 15 plus fantasy points per game. He is. He's just like a cockroach. On the edge of 30. You can't kill him. No, you cannot. In fact, he went from 15 points per game to a low ADP to 16 and a half points per game last year. And just for context, here is a list of running backs age 30 plus to average 15

plus fantasy points per game since 2010. Our good old friend Fred Jackson, Adrian Peterson in 2015, Mark Ingram in 2019, Mostert last year and Henry last or sorry Mostert two years ago Henry last year. Like Kamara has played eight seasons, and assuming I'm doing this correct real quick, that was his fourth best season in points per game. Gosh. That's the value of-

And it's two years after trying to kill him. People tried to end him. Yes! Yeah, I mean, I'm pretty sure he was their leading receiver in receptions last year. So, you look at that wide receiver. Yeah well that's, it's the receiver room and it's also Derek Carr type of play at the beginning there. Yeah I mean but he's got Derek Carr and he's got a bad receiver core so like why would we think that that's going to change? Now you can easily make the ending case because it will end based on

age and you could say you know if his efficiency keeps just getting worse he can be targeted but not be I mean 15 fantasy points per game is a very very high bar and half PPR to get and he just signed a two-year 24 and a half million dollar contract in October oh man the bet on Kamara. 22 million dollars of guaranteed money. And his, what is his ADP? Let me find it for you. He's RB 18 in basketball.

18, so going right around. He will permanently be in this category for the rest of his career, and whether he outperforms it or not will be the trending or ending question. Yeah, it'll just be when does it end? You know, it's not ending, it's like over. He's gonna be good until the until you know he's washed. And he did the right, I mean like he played the Drop My ADP game really well,

which was he had a low ADP, played amazing, then got hurt and sat out your playoffs and hurt you. And you know, now he's back probably under drafted. Yeah. I could have used him against you, Mike. Yeah, I get that. The weirdness, the swinging of the pendulum of how wild we're willing to go with this. It's like last year, not only did running backs stay healthy and were awesome, like old running backs that we have historically been able to bet

against very successfully. You have a strong probability chance if you say this running back is 28, 29. Not for me. They all worked out, I see. They all worked out. Mixon and Jacobs. It's an in jake of isn't it's like ah dude it can't that has to be an anomaly well the bar here for

trending or ending is the 15 plus fantasy points per game which he was only barely you know he was right on in 23 barely ahead of it in 24 you know you got kelly more coming in I don't know how that impacts your view of the team. I think I'm gonna go ending. I think he's gonna be a fantasy relevant 12 to 14 points per game guy. Yeah, I actually agree with you that he probably does not get to 15, but I'm totally in on him next year.

This is, if the bar is only, will he get to 15 fantasy points per game? Probably not, because you will have some changes there with the coordinator and the offense as a whole, but he is obviously the best, most reliable offensive weapon. So he'll be targeted a lot in the passing game. He'll be used around the goal line. He'll be good a lot in the passing game he'll be used

around the goal line he'll be good for fantasy but I doubt you know and I wouldn't I wouldn't be surprised if they draft another they've got to plan for their future at running back this is such a loaded running back draft class and it seems like Kindre Miller is not it so I would I think I would be pouring out I'd be surprised if we go through the draft and they don't draft a running back. So in on Alva Camara, not on 15 fantasy points a game. Mike? It's a cop out, but I'm with Jason.

All right. Let's pivot from a player to a fantasy trend that we've seen for two straight years. Rookie tight end dominance for fantasy football and it's fair to say dominance because in twenty twenty three rookie Sam Laporta was the tight end one in twenty twenty four rookie Brock Bowers was the tight end one and this year Tyler, Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, both projected to be top 20 picks, at least according to the mock drafts that we've been seeing. Both very talented. Jason, you just did a dynasty episode on these tight ends,

so I'd love to hear from you first. I know it's been a, it's hard because you have history over long periods of time, but you have transition and team philosophies. You also have talent questions with Leporta and Bowers that obviously they worked out perfectly, but they weren't necessarily the most, like we've had Pitts and we've had Kincaid and we've had other players. So where were you on Warren and Loveland from a talent perspective? From a talent perspective, they're very good. I've got Warren ahead and I also personally

like Fanon a lot as another incoming- Harold. Harold Fanon Jr. So to me there are three tight ends being drafted this year that have a real opportunity to make an impact on fantasy football this year right away. Obviously Brock Bowers is his own thing. And I'm not saying that the trend is another tight end one season. No, we're not going tight end one. But I shifted and I said this last year,

because I have been historically a very anti-rookie, tight end for fantasy. And the hit rate on that is pretty much like 92%. But the fails were the last two years on two specific players. That part of the trend, I do think, is real. I think you've got to look at modernity with the NFL and see how these players are integrated earlier in their playing careers at tight end.

And the NFL is a copycat league. When they see some of these rookies come in and make an impact right off the bat, more and more teams are going to allow those, especially the highly drafted players to get plugged into the offense earlier. So the combination of this year being a really good tight end draft class with the last few years what's happened in the NFL. I certainly think it's a trend and I said it on our episode, our previous episode that some of the late round tight ends that I'll be targeting might be these rookies over like a Dalton Kincaid who we've seen have a couple years and has a ton of opportunity and still has talent.

But he's failed, I'm gonna take a shot at someone that is fresh and could jump on the scene and make an impact. What do you think, Mike? So, trending, like, Laporta last year was 60, 726 yards and seven touchdowns. Okay, if you wanna give me that stat line and say that either Warren or Loveland

hit that, I think that's possible. We're in a weird, like the combination of Laporta and Bowers to me finishing as the overall number one fantasy tight ends, I think it is a, the Laporta one is throwing off your radar, where Laporta came in as a rookie and had 10 touchdowns. Sam Laporta, great. But is he going to be a 10 touchdown every single year type of guy? I don't think so.

And on top of that, tight end scoring that year was incredibly low. Brock Bowers then coming in here feeling like, oh, well, the trend is rookie tight ends can be this type of an impact. Brock Bowers, go watch Brock Bowers film in college and then watch Warren and Loveland. Like, these, it's not the same. That was exactly what I did. Brock Bowers is, he's so much better than those guys. And I really like Warren and Loveland,

but Brock Bowers is a truly special player where Warren and Loveland. Feels more like Likeland, based on what you're saying. Bust it! That's not good. I don't know, we're all tired. It's the last 10 minutes of the show, I'm gonna give it a whirl.

Trending that if you're gonna say one of these tight ends it's the last 10 minutes of the show, I was gonna give it a whirl. Like trending that if you're gonna say one of these tight ends finishes in the top 10, okay, but I think the bigger question is will one of them be impactful? Meaningful, yeah. Because a tight end seven, like if you had Laporta, unless you survived and made it to the playoff run where he was awesome,

he was killing you throughout the season. Yeah, it makes sense. I think I lean, you know how it is, tight ends are thin. It's a thin group of guys, and when you look at the back, quartile, as Jason would say, of your draft.

Oh, he would go turtile. Oh, I'm sorry, the final Oh yes. Of your draft. Oh he would go, Turtile. Oh I'm sorry, the final turtile of your draft. And you look at the decisions to make with it, is it a Kinkade or a Pitts or a Fryermuth or even a Nijoku without a quarterback or you can take a shot on maybe a better situation for a rookie tight end? I think we no longer have to be scared of it.

I think that might be part of the headline here is let's not be Let's not be so frightened Let's open that's fair. Let's be open to situation. We will open our hearts. Yes to the rookie tight ends Yeah, a reminder everybody the ultimate draft kit You can find it at ultimate draft kit comm that includes all of our tier basedbased rankings, our premium stat projections. We've got 100-plus player profile videos. We've got our custom cheat sheet creators. We've got sleepers, breakouts, busts, and values for your draft.

We've got our custom player marking tools and a ton of other resources to help you win at your draft, including the dynasty pass. So if you play in a dynasty league, that's part of the UDK plus as well all of these tools and resources you can learn more about and pick them up at the pre-order pricing at ultimate draft kit comm if you want to head over there and check that out otherwise and I feel draft is April right yeah dude yeah yeah this how it works now my oh man it's non-stop so very much looking forward to it. Thank you for joining us on today's episode of the show.

We'll catch you again on Thursday. Take care everybody. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join theoot.com and follow us on Twitter at The FF Ballers.