Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Trusting Rookie QBs + Nico Gets The Bag - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/30

Episode Date: May 30, 2024

Caleb Williams or Kirk Cousins in 2024? Redraft and dynasty questions answered on today’s fantasy football podcast! What’s the upside for Trey McBride? Are there "injury prone" players? Plus, rankings reactions to the big Nico Collins contract extension! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for May 30th, 2024. Get the lowest price on the 2024 UDK before June 1st at UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,

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Welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers Podcast, Thursday, May 30th. Mike Wright, Jason Moore. I'm Andy Holloway. The final episode before the Ultimate Draft Kit is released to the world, which we release it very much like an animal out into

the wild. It's caged. It's been caged up for a while. And then now we take it out to the open plains and we release it. It's much more... mean i don't look when you release an animal from a cage there's a lot of different directions that the direction can go that i think that the udk goes full jurassic park we're you know what i'm saying

we're we're we're turning the power off is this just letting people go just get they didn't release the dinosaurs on purpose yeah but we're doing are we releasing a lion or are we releasing like a small bird i see it's a lion yeah so it's gonna rip your face off that's right we put it up and we run and we just let it do what it's gonna do okay but uh uh that will be saturday june 1st the ultimate draft kit, all our tier-based rankings, all the premium stat projections. We just completed the recording of 100-plus video player profiles, so we dive into just like a brief three, four-minute overviews of our perspective on the top 100 players in the game. Those are extremely valuable.

If you haven't watched those before, because I know there's a lot of stuff in the UDK. So you got the UDK before, and maybe you've never really watched those. We've got like one video where you can watch them all together. I think they're extremely valuable. I learn a lot doing it. I think you'll learn a lot watching it or listening. We have the custom cheat sheets. So you can import your league scoring settings,

print it out, cheat sheets. If you'd like to do that, I'm still a cheat sheet guy. I prefer to do it on paper at the draft, but we have the app and we have the web interface where you can mark players, which you can do that and use the cheat sheet, but you can just use the app to actually follow along with who's drafted, mark them drafted,

which players you want to stay away from. We all have, we've gotten together and we've figured out some sleepers, some breakouts, some values and busts that we all agree on. And there's a whole lot more consistency charts. And like you said, the mobile app, risk and upside, and a ton of tools like market share, target share, strength of schedule. And that's all part of the regular UDK that comes out on June 1st. You got one more day to get it pre-order pricing and then boom, blam, it's out.

At order price. At the lions out the cage. UltimateDraftKid.com for that. This was our last show before it's released, so we wanted to draw your attention there. And the quick question, I'm going to throw the question out there, but it's kind of more of a discussion. Okay. The question is just, should I trust rookie quarterbacks?

No. Uh-uh. Okay. So, I mean, they're valuable. Nice and quick. That's the default reaction. And so, I thought that I would do a little digging, look at the numbers. We had an article that came out around this topic back in 2018.

It's not 2018 anymore. It's been a while. We've had a number of new rookie quarterbacks come into the landscape. So I want to share the data that I have mined and just get your reactions to it. Because, you know, Caleb Williams is going to start this year number one overall pick in the draft last year we had Stroud we had Bryce Young we always talk about Herbert's great rookie year but then you have other players that struggle so we've bantered all around this topic talking about the upside the downside

so I wanted to look here's some information for you. There have been 28 quarterbacks drafted inside the top 10 picks since the 2010 season. So 13 years, 28 quarterbacks within the top 10 picks. That is 10 of the 28 quarterbacks have been the number one overall pick in that span. So three years there wasn't a quarterback drafted number one overall. The rest of those years, we had a quarterback go number one. So when you look at the data, some interesting things. In the last 13 years across 28 rookie quarterbacks, only three receivers out of 30 that I looked at reached a 100 reception plateau it's not great

so three of 30 hit 100 it was reggie wayne makes sense with andrew luck with andrew luck okay it was keenan allen okay with herbert and it was Adam Thielen. So that is which was last year, by the way. Right. Last year with Bryce Young. I remember. I'm old enough to remember when I caught a hundred passes from Bryce Young. Don't laugh that much, Al.

You laughed way too hard at that joke. The bit is too good. The bit is fine, but Al finds it so funny. The problem is, Jason, you needed to go with, what? I don't remember that. So that's 11%, by the way. Wait, Adam Thielen with Bryce Young was one of those three? He was one of the three.

That feels so wrong. That's 11%. 100 receptions. That's a strong amount. Oh, that's a great, great number. But that's a strong oh that's a great great number so but that's only 11 of the receivers that i looked at okay um in the last 13 years across the 28 rookie quarterbacks only seven of the 30 eclipsed a thousand yards and that is a that's 25 much more achievable number than 100 receptions which by, by the way, one of those was Delaney Walker with Marcus Mariota,

so a tight end. So I basically looked at the quarterbacks drafted in the top 10. I looked at who their top receivers were. Sometimes I considered just one of them. Sometimes if the reception totals were close, I'd look at more than one. Sure. You know, for example, Jake Locker was one of the guys in 2011, and his top receiver was, can you even guess?

Wait, Jake Locker, so the Titans. I mean, you won't guess, but try. Was that, wait, Kenny Britt? Kenny Britt was my guess. Kenny Britt actually was in this sample, 2016 Jared Goff, threw it to Kenny Britt. Kenny Britt had 1,002 yards. For Jake Locker, it was Nate Washington. Oh, yeah. Who Britt had 1,002 yards. For Jake Locker, it was Nate Washington.

Oh, yeah. Who actually had 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns for Jake Locker as a rookie. Okay. And so here's the average. Here's the average, the leading receiver for a rookie quarterback in that span. They averaged 69 receptions. You can make a sound if you want. 837 yards, 4.3 touchdowns.

I'm assuming not very pleased with those. No, you're not very pleased. I think this is really what it is, is if you want to make a generic bet, if you want to just not look at the specifics, a bet against a rookie quarterback is a good idea. If you're looking at pass catchers, if you're looking at the rookie quarterback's own fantasy finish, you want to universally, you know, the odds are against it working out.

But on a case-by-case basis. Let me give you more data. Okay. Because there's more to consume here. That's the average if you look at the top 10 quarterbacks. But if you take the number one overall picks, which is 10 the 28 in that in that sample which is what we're talking about with caleb williams it's a lot more intriguing if you were a number one overall pick your leading receiver put up 82 for a thousand and eleven and four so your numbers were i thought okay i thought

like i was so confused one thousand eleven yards11 yards? Correct. Okay. Because it sounded like 1,011. And then I was like, what's the four? Four fumbles? It jumps from 69 receptions and 837 yards to 82 and over 1,000. So if you were not the overall number one pick, it goes down to 63 for 769 and four. So if you were the overall number one pick, you have a much better chance of producing a receiver that puts up 82 for 1004 now no quarterback no rookie ever in that sample has put up a double double digit touchdown score okay there's been

zero so nobody's ever scored double digit touchdown so touchdowns, so your odds, DJ, more of double digits are not there. The issue, the yardage can come for rookie quarterbacks easier, and they don't come a lot. There's not a bunch of people that have thrown for 4,000 yards as rookie quarterback. But the real issue is touchdown passes from rookie quarterbacks. You know, the line right now for Caleb Williams is 23-and-a-half. And so you're like okay if you want to go over that he's throws 24 touchdowns he's in elite company I think there's only three guys that have ever done it um and those three guys Justin Herbert had his great

rookie season um you had Baker Mayfield with his really good rookie season and then and and uh it's daniel jones so believe it or not who got to 24 but like it it barely ever happens to so when you're looking at the receivers touchdowns i think you've got to be weary of that the touchdown numbers have just never been supported in high amounts now the other thing that i noticed from the sample is that the majority of all these rookie quarterbacks whether you're the first pick or the top 10, you're throwing to garbage receivers more often than not. The number one receivers in this list, it's Brian Hartline, it's Kendall Wright, it was Zay Jones one year, it was Robbie Anderson, it was Devontae Parker,

it was Jameson Crowder, it was Alan Hearns, and the ones that did produce were the guys that had careers that already were worthy of production. Reggie Wayne. Steve Smith, he went for 79, 1394, and 7. That was a dominant season. Reggie Wayne, 106 for 1355. Delaney Walker was 94 for 1088 with Marcus Mariota, which is wild.

And Keenan, 100 for 992. But most of the time, these rookie quarterbacks come into a situation where they don't have the receiving core that you would hope for. It's a little bit interesting this year because all of that data, like Caleb Williams, you know the number for the leading receiver for number one picks in the last 13 years is 82 for 1,004. And he also has guys that have done it. Keenan Allen was one of the ones that was an example,

but DJ Moore did it last year. So, you know, basically it looks like rookie quarterbacks can support top-tier seasons from top-tier players if they're the number one overall pick. Right, but they also then need a really hyper-focused target share. And that's where the Caleb Williams thing becomes even more interesting to me because it's Caleb Williams and DJ Moore, and then they draft Romo Dunzay. That's it going forward.

Okay, maybe DJ Moore maintains his insane target share that he had last year, but you have two true number one wide receivers so i mean how are they both going to push the target share number that you need from because you need the targets from the quarterback of you know with a little bit more inexperienced a little more inaccurate things of those things so you need an inflated target share to get to those numbers especially because rookie touchdowns aren't there yeah and historically the touchdowns haven't been there so it's how does that split for chicago how does it really shake up we've never we've never seen it i mean that's one of the things you know when you talk about some of these research um pieces you're already dealing with a small sample size, but we don't have another sample.

Like Reggie Wayne was awesome with Andrew Luck, right? But there wasn't, the number two wide receiver that year was Donnie Avery. They did have T.Y. Hilton, but that was rookie year T.Y. Hilton. It was Reggie Wayne and nobody. Steve Smith, I don't remember who the number two wide receiver was that year for rookie Cam Newton, but like Steve Smith was the guy. remember who the number two wide receiver was that year for rookie Cam Newton, but Steve Smith was the guy. So it will be so interesting. You've got a legit prospect coming into at least two great wide receivers, and you hope three.

And you hope for a pass-heavy offense, and you don't know if Roma Dunze is going to factor in in a big way target share-wise in rookie season. So it should be pretty interesting. I have the wide receiver, too, for that Carolina Panther team, Jason. Oh, great. Wait, wait, wait. Can Andy guess it?

I know I can't. I thought. I'm trying to. It's a name you know, but I don't know that you're going to guess this one. And it's not Greg Olson because he was third on the team with 540 yards. Muhammad? What was his name?

Muhammad Sanu? No. Mushyu? No. Mushin Muhammad? No. It was Brandon LaFell. Okay. Wouldn't have got that. Yeah.

That's the point. That's a name that's in there. Oh, by the way, that was the right name for a Panthers wide receiver, Mushin Muhammad. You guys don't remember him? Vaguely. The name's in the back of the head somewhere. All right.

Yeah. So there you go. I mean, what Jason said is the hardest thing is very, very limited sample size of these situations. Sure. But so after you have done the deep dive here statistically, how do you feel about, like, DJ Moore, you've been over the offseason, you've kind of been pretty bullish

do you still feel that i still feel pretty bullish about dj okay but it didn't really move me too much okay on caleb wayne specifically but that's because of what i believe about the target share and the roles like if you i mean it's tough like keenan allen and dj moore are just fundamentally different wide receivers. Yeah. And it's not like you're splitting the same kinds of targets down the field. So it does come down to Roma Dunza's involvement. And, you know, there are some people that think he's not ready at all.

And there are some people that think he's going to make an immediate impact. And that will make a big difference. So I don't know if that changes any of the opinions. All of our data before had been just like rookie quarterbacks that were drafted anywhere in the first round or played 10 or more starts. Not a lot of data that we had in our old article about top 10 or number one overall. Specifically.

So then did that shift how you think about Terry McLaurin at all since he'll have Jane Daniels? Yeah, I mean, I think the major point here is that you're not going to get big touchdown totals. We know that on both sides. We know it on the receiver side. You don't even luck into double digits. And we know it on the quarterback side with what you guys said about Daniel

Jones and Baker and Herbert. So, I mean, like your odds are low for those things to happen. So you're having to make a really, really big bet. And then like McLaurin, does he have a history of double-digit touchdowns? No. So, yeah, I don't know if I was very high on the prospects there anyways, but, yeah, it puts some doubt.

I mean, Drake May with Jalen Polk, what he's got to be able to do, how much of a target share there, That puts some question in my mind. I mean, I don't know if it does for you. My expectations for Polk are they're not necessarily high. It's more of been talking about his value compared to other wide receivers in rookie drafts of this guy is a starter. We won. Yeah, so we'll find out.

Caleb will put it on display this year as will daniels and may and we'll get to see some more numbers added to the stats news and notes from around the league well nico collins who was the byproduct of a rookie quarterback last year. Do we got that drop anywhere? Are you talking about this one? Yeah. Nico. I noticed that drop.

It never accumulates on the screen. Because it's filling up a giant pit on the bottom. For us to grab. So, Nico Collins, three-year, $72 million extension, $32 million guaranteed at signing. This is a big, big deal for Nico Collins, for CJ Stroud over the next couple of years. He's going to have Nico and Tank Dell. And it was a huge year for Nico last season. Does it make you feel like Stephon Diggs is a rental?

Like from a dynasty perspective, do you see the – like what would you put the odds? Now that you know that Tank and Nico are locked in, they're long-term, they're sitting there with Stroud. But Tank is very cheap. Yeah, that's fair. Tank is cheap. Stroud is cheap comparatively because he's on his rookie deal. So I don't –

I think it's probably a rental, but if Stephon Diggs shows up and all the fears of him being washed are gone, then I think that they sign him. They give him a tour. They time it up so that he's kind of off the books as they're having to pay Stroud or Tank.

DeAndre Hopkins is going to play his second season in Tennessee this year. That could happen with Stephon Diggs in Houston next year, but you're talking about Diggs is going to play his second season in Tennessee this year. That could happen with Stephon Diggs in Houston next year. But you're talking about Diggs is going to turn 31 this season. He'll be 32 middle of the way through next season. So him being a temporary asset is not a – What about the season after that? He'll be 33.

Wow. Keep going. 34. What? Yeah. Hold on. Hold on. And so on.

And counting, as Mike would say. Yeah. Hold on. Hold on. And so on. And counting, as Mike would say. Yeah. But so, I mean, I think Diggs, whether it's a one-year rental or not, he is a depreciating asset. Agreed. Yes. And this is great news for Nico. I mean, Nico, from a Dynasty perspective, I didn't know what to do with him. Ironically, we had the Dynasty show come out yesterday, which we recorded about two hours

before the news broke. And I was talking about there's still the concern for me for Nico long-term that he doesn't have a deal signed. Man, this offense, I just don't see how it doesn't work. It's going to be exciting. And that's exactly what fantasy football does. It sets you up to knock you down. Yeah.

Welcome to Cleveland Browns offense. Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Baker Mayfield, coming in off of the best rookie run you've ever seen touchdown-wise. It's hard to not see comparisons between those. I do have the Baker Mayfield fears. Field and fears. No, keep saying them as the same word. Yeah, but it is very difficult right now,

or maybe you didn't even play fantasy when Baker Mayfield had his rookie year. Going into year two, he was outrageously high. He was as high as C.J. Stroud is right now in Dynasty. He was like the quarterback four off the board and and he was the future he was a guaranteed awesome next great first ballot hall of famer and you have three wide receivers mike digs nico tank dell all being drafted inside the top 25 there's gonna be something wrong with that probably yeah they're in the top 25. And if there's not, then C.J. Stroud's a top three guy.

You can't really have a world where C.J. Stroud can support three top 25. I mean, if you look back in history at the teams where you did support three top options, which has happened before, those are Aaron Rodgers when he was the number one or number two quarterback, Peyton Manning when he was the number one or number two quarterback Peyton Manning when he was you know the number one or number three quarterback I think Andy's right if all three guys hit on their ADP then Stroud is to the moon which is probably why we're saying like one of these guys isn't going to work out I think the three of us all feel like Diggs is the maybe just last year the wide receiver 25 was jacoby myers who had 71 for 808 touchdowns like if that's one of the three but that would be the third yeah but it's just it touchdowns

touchdowns all the matter if i could quickly do the math on the wide receiver 14 15 and 25 numbers from last year and what that would mean at a minimum for Stroud, that would be interesting because that's where they're going. It would be. So, Ayuk was 14, Debo was 15. That's 14 total touchdowns plus Jacoby at eight. So, that's still not getting you up to the echelon that we need. No, but that's 22 among three players. That's wild.

Yeah. Get a little Schultz in there. Mix a little mixing in. Don't forget about Bobbyby tree he's still on the roster he's still on the roster i believe oh debo had rushing touchdowns though yeah yeah yeah a little cheaty all right all right well there you go nico calls i honestly feel like nico is do you feel like he's the safest of the three? I feel like with this deal, he's now the safest of the three. The only reason he wouldn't be the safest is because of average draft position.

Right now, he's up at wide receiver 15, whereas Tank Dell's down at 25. But you don't deal with the injury with Nico. You already have the rapport established. And I do think that Diggs coming in this doesn't like oh there is part of it where it's like okay well you can't throw it to everyone at the same play so the target share goes down but also you can't defend these guys who are you well noah brown had huge years last year or he had huge massive years huge years the biggest years it was like a dog year for noah brown um he had seven of them last season.

You think that this kind of speech impediments that we have will continue the older we get? No, I'm sure our brains are getting sharper and sharper. But no, Noah Brown had monster games. Yeah, and they were down the field when things opened up, and you saw that with Nico. Schultz got the bag, though, too. Yeah, man, I think Nico is going to have a monster season. I'd be most worried about Tankdale coming off

of injury plus the offseason incident mixed with Diggs. I love Tankdale. I think he's a great player but I could see him having the occasional letdown if Diggs is still the guy. Sure. Unfortunately. Any other news to get into?

No, sir. No, nothing else? All right. Let's take a break, come back with some questions. I definitely think you should go and check out the Dynasty podcast that these guys recorded yesterday, mostly because Jason time warps inside the episode. And that's all I'm going to say.

That was a fun time warp. Jason went through some things. You talk about Noah Brown having a bunch of years. Yeah. Jason threw some in. Mailbag time. Mailbag. Mailbag, yeah.

Get the UDK. All right, if you have a question for the show. Who said that? Visit the website, thefantasyfootballers.com, where you can find the UDK, but also the Submit a Question button. Or you can dial our voicemail hotline, send in a question that way, 302-464-TFFB. If you mess up your question on the voicemail, our producers will hear it and laugh. Yeah.

But it'll be okay. Yeah. And we probably won't play it on the air at that point. We do have a voicemail question. We're going to kick it off. Brandon from Kentucky has a Dynasty question. Hey, this is Brandon from Kentucky. Thanks for everything you do for the show.

I was wondering, in a Dynasty one-quarterback PPR format, would you trade A.J. Brown straight up for Jonathan Taylor? Thanks, guys. I will jump in. So the question was, this is Dynasty. A.J. Brown straight up for Jonathan Taylor. A.J. Brown's about to be 27. Jonathan Taylor will be turning 26 this year.

And I would not. I can understand that that's kind of the value of what it would take to get Jonathan Taylor. He's a pretty hot commodity at the running back position, a little harder to find. But A.J. Brown with the new deal. Yeah, there's no way.

And him being locked in as – like he's – A.J. Brown to me is just outside of my tier one dynasty wide receivers, which are Chase, Jefferson, well, now I'm going to lose, Amin Ra and CeeDee Lamb. Those are the four that are at the top to me. And A.J. Brown is just right behind there. After the 2025 season, Jonathan Taylor will be older, looking for a new contract, all of that. Really?

He just got a contract. He just got paid. He just got paid. And after that season, he has a $2 million dead cap if they wanted to get out before the 2026 season. Oh, you're saying after next year. Yes. Not this year. After next year.

Comparatively, because both these guys just got a new contract. A.J. Brown did and Jonathan Taylor did. After the 2025 season, it would be a $20 million dead cap for A.J. Brown. In fact, the dead cap goes all the way down through 2028. So this is like... It's longevity. In a vacuum, I'm not doing it. The longevity argument aside, I wouldn't do it. But if I had two

of the other top 10 dynasty wideouts, and I need a running back, then you can make that decision. Like, if you want to make a run for the title, I mean, I think there are people out there that would trade A.J. Brown to get Christian McCaffrey for two years to try to run for a title. So I do see a little bit of logic.

If you're super deep at running back or at wide receiver, then maybe you'd consider it. But in a vacuum, I think we'd all say no. Drew Gold writes in off of Instagram with a question. Who has a better 2024 year, Kirk Cousins or the aforementioned Caleb Williams? The timing of the discussion is on point. And, man, if that's where you're going, like that low in the barrel for fantasy quarterbacks, we're talking redraft.

I mean, whatever. It doesn't even matter. Redraft or dynasty. I'm going Caleb here. I'm going to take the shot of the upside because of all the things we laid out. This is a number one overall pick who we don't have comps for what Caleb Williams is walking into. Yes, he's never thrown in the NFL. Could be a colossal disaster.

But Kirk Cousins has the Achilles injury, which he's on the field and still throwing and all those things, but there's a big difference between guys are not allowed to breathe on you in OTAs to 250 pound men coming to take your life away from you.

Does it make a difference to you at all? Eighth round for Caleb, 12th round for Kirk. Are those both far enough back where you're just like, give me the upside of Caleb? Yeah, I think so. Are you on that side, Jason? So I'm definitely on the side that the round and the ADP doesn't really matter. The guys going in the eighth round, you know, DeAndre Hopkins or Javante Williams,

you're not sacrificing so much that if you believe in Caleb Williams and his ceiling well over Kirk Cousins, then, yeah, the savings doesn't matter there. But I'm on the side that I think Kirk Cousins has a better 2024. In order to be successful, you need 4,000-plus yards. You need 30-plus touchdowns. Kirk Cousins has done that several times. He has been very good. You know he can do it.

And if you look historically, like, for instance, over 4,000 yards, very few quarterbacks have ever done it. Over 24 passing touchdowns, very few few quarterbacks have ever done it over 24 passing touchdowns very few rookie quarterbacks have ever done it one guy did both of them justin herbert yeah he did both he crushed he had basically the best rookie quarterback season for a non you know cam newton uh mobile rushing quarterback style um and he was the quarterback eight so it's like is yeah if that's he was the quarterback eight. So it's like – Yeah, if that's your ceiling is quarterback eight. The biggest problem is not the Cousins versus Williams. It's the fact that Purdy, Daniels, Tua, Goff, Lawrence, and Herbert

are in between those two guys in the draft. If I'm sitting Caleb Williams at the end of the eighth round or Brock Purdy in the middle of the ninth or Jared Goff in the late tenth or the Herbert situation that you just brought up in the middle of the ninth or Jared Goff in the middle of the late 10th or the Herbert situation that you just brought up in the 11th that's when my decision gets more difficult it wouldn't be like I'd rather I just would rather have Caleb Williams and see what happens than Kirk Cousins sure I'm fine with that but I do agree with you like Brock Purdy Justin Herbert

Tua I would rather have all those. YouTube question coming in from Bobby. He says, how much does injury potential influence your rankings? If a player is injury prone, how are your rankings impacted compared to a similar player that does not have an injury history? This is a good question. I would start it off by saying I think that there's very few players in the NFL where I actually say that's an injury-prone player. Like even Keenan Allen had that label.

Christian McCaffrey would definitely have had that label after the two missed years that he had. And since that time, he's been an Ironman. So it's pretty rare. Like Christian Watson, for example. Christian Watson, I'm like, I think that guy has a really bad injury problem so much that they're spending the offseason trying to figure out why he has an injury problem.

I brought up, I tried to tease Jason with like, what does a Kyron Williams-Breece Hall trade look like in our league of record? We have those two guys on our keepers, on our rosters, and Jason's first reaction is it'd be pretty hard. Kyron has this offseason injury report. Now, it's May 29th. It shouldn't be in the back of your head, but you want to know why it is? It's because he was hurt last year.

So I think it does have a psychological influence in the back of your head, but you want to know why it is? It's because he was hurt last year. So I think it does have a psychological influence in the way you look at it because you're like, well, I shouldn't think about that, but what if? Yeah, but as far as how it affects our rankings, when we stat people out, there are very few players, and there are a few where I'll basically subtract the game from their actual counting stats. James Conner. James Conner is the name that came to mind. James Conner will not play a full season.

He'll play most of the games. He'll play 14 games. He's going to be good on a per-game basis, but he just will always miss a couple games because of his play style and history. But for the most part, that all goes into our risk rating. So if you're looking at our rankings and you want to know, like, well, who is someone that we are concerned about? Look at that risk rating number, because that's where we will, you know, put that into like this.

This player might be here in the rankings, but he is a risky pick. But for the most part, we try to not double count injuries and overdo them because we've done this long enough to know that there are some injury prone labels. Frank Gore is the Ironman of all Ironmen. He was known as someone that was just a complete and utter injury risk every year. The first couple of years of his career, he was just never able to stay on the field. And then he played until he had grandchildren. Now, I will say the follow up to that then is injuries that are happening in training camp. Yes.

Like especially soft tissue. You're talking someone's like, ooh, they're going to miss the rest of camp with a hamstring injury. That will create a dip in the ADP market. It's always tantalizing. Oh, this player that should have cost me a fourth round pick I'm getting them in the eighth round now those we have found taking taking the risk of the training camp hamstring injury those those can bite you I spent a couple years in a row writing down at the

right at kickoff I would write down all the players that like you know who really struggled who was the injury dip players who had a training camp injury or wasn't quite ready or they should be ready but for week one and at the end of the year I would look and see okay how did how did those fare and there's always one or two that works out yeah but it's like eight or nine that don't. It's just a bad bet. Don't buy the injury dips. Don't tell me what to do.

If I want to buy a dip, Jason, I could be the outlier. I didn't know you were even listening. I wasn't talking to you, brother. Oh, okay. All right. YouTube question. Will Jameer Gibbs have a true breakout season? Or will he share a chunk of time again with another support back?

Both. I mean, some might say that the breakout happened from week seven on last year where he was the RB3, but that also included. The cheap suit 1743, that was not a true breakout. Well, I think maybe classifying it as a dominant year from start to finish. Jason said both. I'm with that. How many times this year will you be frustrated with David Montgomery

as the Jameer Gibbs manager? Ten. Ten? Well, just because I think David Montgomery has ten touchdowns. So every time he scores, you'll be – 100%. It doesn't matter. If you've got Jameer Gibbs and he has three touchdowns and 200 yards in that game

and David Montgomery comes in and gets that fourth touchdown, you're going to be pissed. I know because we've been there. We're selfish. Oh, my gosh. Mike, of all people. Mike is the worst. Mike with Christian McCaffrey. He had like a five-touchdown game.

And you were so mad Elijah Mitchell got the last one. But it's – That just tells me you weren't rooting for Christian the last one. But it's – That just tells me you weren't rooting for Christian McCaffrey. Last year, 13 touchdowns for David Montgomery. But the craziest part of that stat was that he only – in the games he played, he only had three games where he didn't score a rushing touchdown. Yeah. So, like – and now you're two years of

this in detroit you had jamal williams who scored constantly and made what was it deandre swift managers upset yes and then you've got montgomery who the consent it wasn't just chunks i mean he had a three touchdown game one time then it's one one one one1-1-1-1-1-1-1. I mean, he just is there to bother you. But the snaps will go down. Yeah, for David Montgomery. Yeah, the snaps will go down. Jameer Gibbs coming into his second year will get an increase in work. I've only got him with 202 carries, a lot more work in the passing game.

And I've got David Montgomery with 10 touchdowns. I've got this, you know, every player in the league is statted out. At the end, David Montgomery is fine. He's a fine player. And Jameer Gibbs is my running back three. That's a true monstrous breakout. I think Jameer Gibbs is an electric talent that will have rushing touchdowns, will have receiving touchdowns, will get, you know, north of 80 targets.

I've got him at 92 targets. He should be a, you know, of 80 targets i've got him at 92 targets he should be a uh you know a fantasy breaker let me give you a comp well tell me if it's it makes any sense but melvin gordon oh eight touchdowns 2019 in the backfield with austin e, he ended up running back 23 in 2019. Melvin Gordon did. And Austin Eckler that year was the RB6. Yeah. I mean, that seems very similar. The comp to me is like Jamal Charles had a year.

I forget who the other guy was. Was it Thomas Jones? Thomas Jones. Yeah. Thomas Jones was really effective, had a lot of rushing touchdowns. But when you've got the juice. We're bringing up Thomas Jones? All right, go Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.

Are you okay with that, Mike? Yes, yes, I am. Thomas Jones. Well, Jamal Charles, Thomas Jones, they existed together. The reason Thomas Jones is being brought up is because of Jamal Charles. Because even though I loved Alvin Kamara, even as a rookie, he was great, not the same type of player I I see a lot of Jamal Charles type of you know oh yeah oh yeah in Gibbs where you just you do not if you're a if you're a defense don't let him get space because he gone he's just over

well let me let me ask this question here Nick Bryant Bryant wants to know, and it's a big question. I think there's lots of opinions. What are your feelings on Will Levis for Fantasy this year? I'm pretty sure Kyle wrote his mantra in here, which he refers to it as, chuck it deep or get rocked.

I like to think that every snap, he said, and right before he says think that every snap, he like, and right before he says hike in his brain, he goes, it's Levis time. Banana Rama! Look, I I'm rooting for Will Levis. I'm going to put it that way.

I'm not projecting something special, but I'm rooting for him. He's got weapons. For fantasy this year, I think there'll be three times you'll you'll stream him i love the idea of taking a shot on will levis not because i expect it to pay off will levis is a parlay okay that is what will levis is this season parlays don't usually hit right you're you know you build, oh, it's got three, five legs. I got to have all these things go right. But if they go right, that's going to be

a payoff. And that's how I see Will Levis. I don't expect it to go right, but I see that if it goes right, if Will Levis hits with Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins and even Tyler Boyd now added to the mix, Tajay Sharp out of the backfield. The rushing ability. He should have four or five rushing touchdowns as well. If it hits in his year two, you know, that's that $5 parlay that makes you a grand. And so it's like, because it costs you nothing. Will Levis is on 19th round ADP.

He's not drafted. Even in two quarterback leagues, you know, he is super late. So I like taking the shot. The risk is worth the reward because there is almost no risk. All right. I got to take a break and then come back and I'm aghast over here. Oh, yeah, I hear that. Okay.

All right. hear oh yeah i hear that all right so the next question we had we had some people writing questions about um i guess you'd call them uh homer call outs okay worried that we're ranking certain cardinal players inappropriately okay the. The first question comes from Jbrittle4, who says, did you guys overrate Trey McBride? I have obviously, I mean, we've talked about Trey McBride. I do believe that you guys overrate Trey McBride. However, Mike, do you know where you have him right now? I do.

Do you know where Trey McBride is on Mike's list? Yep, I see it. But I'm just saying, when you say you guys overemphasize Trey McBride, you're speaking of Mike and I. I have him lower than you. I see his ranking on your list. I see him at five now. Right now we're competing who has Trey McBride the lowest.

Or the highest. Depends on what side you want to be on. Or the most reasonable. Yeah, the answer is for Mike, yes. And me and Jason no okay is that a fair answer well so to peel back the curtain Mike you

we've got a bold call yeah we gotta do some explain yourself stuff here you've got them as your tight end one so explain yourself well from week 10 on he was averaging nearly 10 targets a game. If you're looking at yards per route run,

last year there were two starting tight ends who averaged more than two yards per route run. That would be Travis Kelsey. Heard of him. And Trey McBride. Look, I get Marvin Harrison is in this. So David Njoku is your number one then? No.

He wasn't in that. I didn't say David Njoku. Why are you bringing up Njoku up yeah oh just because his end of season was so good that you should just project it wasn't just it was number one tight end wasn't just end of season and look you look you put joe was it was bigger than the joke it was less time than the joke is run the joke who had a longer run okay well you put joe flacco as a starting quarterback instead of uh voldemort maybe Maybe I'm more into David Njoku. But he's going into his third year.

The breakout happened for him. He's still a young guy. He's hitting that age in the world of the tight end. He is approaching the age where these guys start to really peak. And he already broke out. And I think that the offense revolves around Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride it will it will revolve around those two guys and for for all of the hopes and dreams of like well put Marvin into the hall of fame already he's still a rookie

rookie wide receiver and even if he is incredibly, the offense can be those two guys and be hyper-focused onto them. And I see that Trey McBride is going to have a whole bunch of receptions, and I just need the touchdowns to go up a little bit. Yeah, he's absolutely in the conversation. I think there are five tight ends this year that legitimately could be the number one tight end. So he is my five.

But as far as answering the question, did we overrate McBride? Are we too high because we're homers? Trey McBride's ADP, his average draft right now on both underdog and sleeper, he's the tight end three going off the board. Consensus, he's our tight end four. So, no, we're not Arizona-ing him. Well, here's the inverse question from Jordan. Is it me or do you guys have a big bias against Hollywood Brown now that he failed in Arizona

because they think we have Hollywood ranked far too low, which ADP-wise? This one's legit. So this is legit. Maybe. Well, here's where I'm saying it's somewhat legit. I think because we care so much about the Arizona Cardinals, we watch every snap of every game. We try.

But it's impossible when there's so many games going on. We saw Hollywood suck. Like, he was bad. He did not look the same. And if you've listened to the show for a long time, I have loved Hollywood well before he was a Cardinal. Loved him coming out of college. Loved him as a Raven. He was not the same dude last year.

He dealt with a heel injury. Maybe that's all over. We've talked about that before. Wait, do we need to update that jersey again? Yeah, every year you've got to update it because no one wants Hollywood Brown. It's red. You know, like, it's still Chiefs color. Yes, we saw a lot of him.

So I think that does influence, but it's not necessarily a negative thing. That could be a positive thing that we got to see a lot of him, and we aren't convinced that he's going to go out there and play in this system the way that, you know, a lot of people hope, being that convinced that he's going to go out there and play in this system the way that a lot of people hope being that he's Patrick Mahomes' guy. He's also one of the players that I'm reserving some significant adjustment for based

on the way training camp looks and the depth chart and how long Rashi Rice is out. Yeah, Rice matters. It's just one of those things where you don't see a lot of success from the wide receiver, too, if he is indeed the two on this team with Patrick Mahomes.

And Hollywood, like, nobody wanted him. Right. He sat out on the market, and he signed a one-year deal. So it's like we're not the only ones seeing that. I think there are a lot of people, like, the ADP for underdog is irrelevant to this discussion to me because of course he's a great pick on underdog yeah because what if he's the one for Patrick Mahomes because Rashi Rice is out and Mahomes wants to drive the ball downfield and Hollywood's one of

the best ever so MVS catches bomb touchdowns yeah you get good games from him but redraft wise I mean Jason is literally on the mark with where redraft ADP is on the.39. We won't talk about Mike and I's ratings. Mine is he ended up where he ended up. And if you want some statistical talk about Hollywood Brown, here's some stats. Since 2020, 54 wide receivers have seen 250 or more targets. And of those 54 in fantasy points per target, he is 46th. What are some of the names around him? On a per target basis, these are the fantasy points per target you would expect.

Hollywood Brown is around Allen Robinson, Michael Gallup, Chase Claypool, Robert Woods. It has not worked in his time in the NFL. Yeah, go ahead. If they don't draft Xavier Worthy in the first round, talking about the Kansas City Chiefs, I'm a little more optimistic and just cross your fingers and hope for a Hollywood Brown. But I don't think that he – when they're fully healthy and ready to go, Rasheed Rice is there, Kelsey is there, Worthy is there,

I think that Brown is a bit part on the offense. The odds of him being MVS are not zero. They're very high. Like that could literally be what he is. I want to circle back to mcbride i want to kind of okay i want to take a breath and i actually want to apologize for my for my um what would you call that uh disgust insulting maybe because i actually think i think it's beneficial to not play it safe on your ranking.

So if you have a conviction about a player, I think it's the best thing you can do. Look, if you're following Mike's rankings, Trey McBride will be your tight end. That's the facts. Because when you combine draft value with potential outcome, you're probably going to have Trey McBride if you are on Mike's side with what

he's going to do. And it doesn't really, like, we're playing to win the game. Right. So I think that ultimately, while I was surprised because I didn't know it, that's what you got. You got my, I didn't know that was the case until middle of the show. But because of that, that doesn't mean that that's a wrong ranking because if you have a conviction about a player and you do have a pile of guys that could all finish number one this year,

I applaud taking the shot in rankings. I think it takes courage. Well, thank you. I have him down for a 25% target share. You didn't even have to use a golden ticket. I got this golden ticket. This golden ticket from Andy. One free Andy Holloway agreement, and I'm still holding on to it.

The longer you go, the more scared I get. Yeah, I'm waiting. Now, you can't use that on a My Guy segment, all right? You don't tell me what I can do. This is golden. It's not a silver ticket. It's not a bronze ticket. You say a bunch of bad stuff about my future My Guy.

Ooh, baby. Yeah, well, here's a question for you Jason. IG question from Tony the Tiger. When making league rule changes, should it be unanimous or majority rules? I think to some degree it depends on your league. There's a league that

I manage where it is iron fist. I'm the commissioner. That's not even unanimous. It's just you're an authoritarian I'm an authoritarian and that's what it is that's what you signed up for but that's my point if you signed up for

the league where it's like I'm running it do you want to be part of my league I mean I'm not like dropping players off your team and adding them to mine but if I say hey we're gonna from a rule standpoint it's your league you're running yeah if i say i invited people into your dictatorship if i want uh you know a point per first down next year i'm gonna add it i'm gonna let everybody know we're doing

this and that's totally fine if that's how it started and that's what you want most of our leagues that we play in our main league of record is the exact this is this is a democracy and this is like you have to have um you have to have for any major rule change major we require like a super majority um it doesn't have to be unanimous you're never going to get unanimous no because there's always one guy yep that just doesn't want to go along with the flow. Some people love saying no. Because it gives them power. Yeah.

Do you, Jason, have any fears of your fantasy league rising up and having a revolution? I have wondered. They all started league with 11? There was one guy who was making some push. Uh-oh. Took him out. Made an example of him.

Made an example. Let the other 10 know. Watch him. He's out of the league. No, you did not. No, I didn't. Of course I did. Okay.

But I did have a situation where one guy left the league and then found his own replacement that nobody knew. And I'm like, nope. That new guy's out of the league. So you booted the replacement. Because they were trying to be responsible. Yeah, good for you. But Iron Fizz League.

What is the name of this league? Jason's League. Yeah, that's the name. All right. Final reminder here, ultimate draft kit.com. Your last chance to get it at a pre-order price. Get the UDK Plus. You'll save even more.

It releases on Saturday. We're looking forward to all of your feedback. Our team is hard at work. We have been busting our booties over here. So shout-out to the whole team, the whole Fantasy Footballers team. To Mike and Andy and Jason. I mean, the whole team has just been incredible. Your league must be real fun.

All right. That is going to do it. We've got some fun episodes coming up, including a mock draft with all three of us, so you don't want to miss that. Take care, everybody. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.