Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - Wildcard Draft Picks + Breakout-or-Bust? - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/27

Episode Date: May 27, 2025

Fantasy Football show for May 27, 2025. Toughest players to rank for the 2025 season! Andy, Mike, and Jason discuss players with a wide range of outcomes for fantasy football this year. Will Tyreek Hill bounce back? Will Kaleb Johnson take over in Pittsburgh? Find out what the floor and ceiling is for a handful of players in 2025 fantasy football drafts. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.Get the lowest price on the 2025 UDK at UltimateDraftKit.com - Instant access to the Dynasty Pass with the UDK+(00:00) Introduction(04:45) RJ Harvey Outlook(10:50) NFL News(19:45) Fantasy Wildcards(21:34) Aaron Jones(26:50) Kaleb Johnson(33:58) Jayden Reed(42:56) Tyreek Hill(43:50 Rashee Rice(46:54) Cedric TillmanConnect with the show:Subscribe on YouTubeVisit us on the WebSupport the ShowFollow on XFollow on InstagramJoin our Discord

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Welcome in one and all. Andy, Mike and Jason, the fantasy footballers back with you. Tuesday, May 27th. It's a beautiful day. Hopefully everybody enjoyed the holiday. Not our guys. You can enjoy your work Jason. That's true and I do. We would love, yeah we have the, it's the crunch. It's the ultimate draft kit crunch time. So every year we do a delayed memorial Day for the staff a couple of weeks

after because we have the ultimate draft kit coming out at the end of this week. So we are extremely excited to bring the 2025 UDK your way. Five days away, you can pre-order it ultimate draft kit.com. I did have somebody reach out because we you know we've been doing the show a long time and the UDK has been a key part of people's draft day plans for a long time and so you know and it's grown and it's expanded over the years but I did have some people like literally write in and just say like you know it was funny because one person was like this is my first year getting the UDK. Can you tell me what's in it? That's, he bought it already.

He bought it already. But he wanted us to describe some of the features just a little bit more because sometimes that gets lost when we just bring it up. We used to talk about all the details because it was new, now we just expect, well, everybody has it. Everybody should be using it.

Or more that they know what's in there. But we're in the middle of, one of the big features is we have 100 plus player profile videos. So we break down the situations for 100 players on video, individual profile videos. So we're in the middle of recording those. We record those as close to release as possible. Obviously things change.

That's the neat thing about the UDK is this is a living, breathing, always updated, always changing draft guide from June 1 all the way into your draft season. We're always in there making tweaks and adjustments. This is not like a magazine you buy off the shelf and then it's outdated in a week. That's one of the key features. That's why we designed it as we were used to getting

those magazines and things like that before we had the show. We wanted something that's always up to date. So those videos are happening right now. That's one of the big features. There's custom cheat sheets inside of the UDK. So if you are like me and you like to have a piece of paper printed out, you can customize those. You can customize them to your league. Whatever your setting. You got some weird wild scoring or whatever, you can put that in. And all of our rankings support custom scoring.

This year, especially, we've upgraded the importing functionality. So you can import from ESPN public and private leagues, Yahoo leagues, Sleeper leagues, NFL.com leagues. And then you can put your, if you're not playing on those platforms, you can just add your scoring settings and it will customize the rankings for you. not playing on those platforms, you can just add your scoring settings and it will

customize the rankings for you. All of our stat projections, so every player, every stat are in there are tier based rankings. Jason that I mean that's it's funny because the ultimate draft. The main thing is the tier based rankings that we pour ourselves into and make sure that you know you've got the position separated tiers that are highly accurate rankings historically proven. But then you have a bunch of the other stuff when you want to dive deeper and you want to see the strength of schedule to start the season.

There's some research tools built in. All sorts of research. I mean. Consistency charts. That's a big one. Red zone reports and ADPs across all platforms. One of the things that we've really improved too is just like there's a mobile app and there's a web version so you can use either one and there's player marking so you can go in there and mark players you know if you want to hide keepers for your league. I was gonna say Andy does it the old man way. That's right. He uses the cheat sheet creator, prints things out,

and then physically uses, I assume, some sort of writing utensil. It's usually a marker. It's normally, yeah, it's one that you've got the strong smell from. Yeah, and so that's how he does it. I use the app. I use it on a tablet.

That's how I do it. And that way you can mark who you want to, make sure I don't forget that I want to draft this player and just like track your draft that way. So those are some of the core features. You can read about more of them at ultimatedraftkit.com. And if you get the UDK Plus, you also get the draft analyzer, which releases on July 1st.

So a month after release date. And that allows you to basically just bring in your team that you drafted anytime in the off season and we will grade it we will analyze it we will tell you where your strengths are where your weaknesses are an action plan to improve your team so we break it down you get a grade from us you'll find out which one of us three likes your team the most which is my favorite very stupid feature yes yes we did add that in there so that's that's just an overview of that. Our team has done a great job of upgrading the app this year just functionality wise. It's much more snappy. It's got more function or features and

so we're super excited. That comes out on Sunday. So get it now. UltimateDraftKit.com. Here's your quick question for the day and And I'm curious, Jason, what was discussed on the Dynasty show about this, because I did not hear your discussion, but what do you believe the floor and ceiling for R.J. Harvey is this season? R.J. Harvey, rookie running back for the Denver Broncos, second round pick, went, you know,

the Broncos were a team that a lot of people projected to draft a running back. They did not necessarily think they'd wait until the 60th pick in the draft or go with RJ Harvey. What's your answer to that question? What's the what's the floor and ceiling for RJ Harvey in this offense? I mean the the floor feels like it's got to be around a running back to like running back 24. You've got a really good offense or at least projected to be a quality team with up and coming Bo Nicks and Sean Payton.

You've got a running back core that is so in need of RJ Harvey or anyone who is talented. They've got an itty bitty baby in McLaughlin. They've got Audrick Estimé who's just a first and second down banger. And Gervonta Williams had so much opportunity last year. The way that they use the running backs in the passing game is incredible. Number one in target share. Yeah, and it's not surprising. This is like Sean Payton's way. We have like 15 years of all sorts of running backs. This isn't an Alvin Camara skewed thing

There are so many different running back course He has had and he always has his quarterback target them a lot And so RJ Harvey should get a lot of targets a lot of carries So I think that gives him a nice high floor. What is his ceiling? Yeah, that's the more interesting question to me is like What could he actually finish at? I think in the range of outcomes, there's a top 10. See, I agree with that. I think that the situation that I compare it most to

was actually Kareem Hunt in Kansas City. Because Kareem Hunt was not a first round pick. He was third, right? I believe that's right, yeah. And yet, going into the drafts that year, you realize that he was gonna be the guy in Kansas City. Who was it that got injured ahead of him? Spencer Ware.

Yeah. Yeah, when he got hurt, you knew that it was an Andy Reid offense, right? You got a Sean Payton offense, you got an Andy Reid offense. You have a guy that they hand-picked in a round that wasn't the first round. It seems like the Broncos had their eye on RJ Harvey.

And so to me, they have a plan for him. So how high is that? I genuinely, this is not a projection that he will get there. But I think the range of outcomes is like six. I think it could be the RB six. Yeah. In a perfect, perfect world. Staring down Givante's 70 targets from last year,

like that is, that's some juicy stuff. Now we, you know, he, Gervonta was only 139 attempts and Peyton has used multiple running backs. Like the- Which he still will use. Yeah, yeah, he absolutely will. And so it's just, that's where where that's where the ceiling will shake out of how much of the actual timeshare is he going to be in charge of because I I do think that

estimate will be involved as well and so an estimate could end up being the the goal line back right would be really hard on her yeah so there's there's still a lot of variables out there bouncing around for RJ Harvey, but the overall situation is something that you want to invest in for fantasy football. Here's some data for you, because we don't have a lot of day two running backs that get drafted in fantasy in the top five rounds of fantasy drafts. We've only had 11 of those in the last 15 years. And so it's rare when you get drafted later

to end up in the top five in fantasy, top five rounds. Only four of those 11 finishes top 24 running backs and only four of those 11 had more than 250 opportunities. So you know it's nice if you look at a player like Kareem Hunt to use him as a sample but he is the sample gone right. That's a fascinating, a fascinating stat. Yeah it's very very low odds that you're gonna get 250 plus opportunities or finish in the top 24 even if you've convinced the world to draft you in fantasy. Yeah because it round two is great for long term like you know dynasty we talked about that of

he got round two draft capital this is sensational but if for immediate day one impact it's not as common. So that'll be, I mean, he's one of the more exciting players to watch this year. I was really curious, seeing that most of them do not get 250 opportunities, I was like, what did I give him? I have him down for 243 opportunities.

We all seem to have him ranked kind of near the floor right now. Yeah, I have him right now as my RB 23 Okay. All right. Let's talk some news News and notes from around the league Well, I don't know if this is good news or bad news, but Gervonta Williams told a Cowboys team reporter that he feels, quote, completely like himself. Two years removed from a knee injury. Does that, does it tempt you to believe?

This quote doesn't, but his ADP and the situation of the Cowboys is, it will be very difficult for me to not have a couple teams with Givante on there of Justin Case I agree the the player saying he feels good means Jack yes walk great. I mean he's never gonna be like man. I feel slow Did you ever have you ever heard a player say like man? I feel like I just I don't got it I mean, maybe when they retire this will come off Like a Rico Dowdle insult, but I want you to not take it that way Jason did you ever really feel that Rico Dowdle was?

Special no, okay Did the league didn't either because he had an opportunity this offseason to go someplace and he is a backup to Chuba Hubbard, right? Rico Dowdle was very he had success in this offense. Yeah, the second half of the year once they gave him the work, it was very good. And the other thing Mike said, which is true and I just moved Gervonta up a little bit in my rankings, which felt gross. It didn't feel like great. Yeah, I get that.

Don't tell anybody about that. The thing that is actionable is that right now in their OTAs, he's receiving the lion's share of the first team. And we expect him to be first in the rotation. But there is a world here where he's not just first in the rotation, he's just the best one that they have, because they don't got a lot of good running backs there. And he is the main running back, the primary ball carrier. So if that's the case for a good offense, I think everyone views the Dallas Cowboys with Dak and CD and George healthy

that the- George. Yeah, I don't think you were- No, you weren't. This was a foot cast thing. Yeah, this is, I don't think you were. No, you weren't. This was a foot cast thing. I don't understand. You only say George now. That's the gag.

It's not a gag, it's how I can remember who he is. George, AKA. George Pickens? Yeah, see? AKA what? George is his only name that will be ever said by me. Okay, all right. With the Cowboys, like last year,

not confidence necessarily that the player was awesome, but the confidence that it would end up being Rico Dowdle was like it seemed clear looking at the depth chart. Looking at the depth chart of the Cowboys this year though, it's not clear. Although I would have Gervonta a bit higher if I felt really confident, but you know, like Miles Sanders is there. And he's been a starter. He has experience and then later on...

He's been as disappointing as Gervonta Williams. He's very rich. And then they drafted Jaden Blue. It's someone, it's very likely that someone emerges from here and right now the bet is going to be Javonte Williams. It's just that need more need more information at a camp how things are shaken out. All right we have, there was some conversation around the Lions throwing the ball down field more. They have John Morton as their offensive coordinator with Ben Johnson leaving.

The purpose behind that in part, Dan Campbell talked about it. It was to keep stability. It was to keep continuity with the things that they've been doing. I brought up, not Javonte Williams, good inspiration, Jameson Williams. On recent shows, I'm very, very excited

about Jameson Williams this year. This would obviously be a good thing for him if they got the ball downfield more. He had, Jared Goff had the third lowest percentage of attempts, 20 plus yards downfield, which is surprising, because they were such a great offense. It's just-

It's a little boo. And if you look at the Broncos last year where John Morton is coming from with a rookie, they, Boeniks actually aired it out downfield quite a bit. It was significantly more than Jared Goff. And then as far as continuity, John Morton, right before, he went from the Lions to the Broncos, now is back with the Lions. And then the New Orleans football squad, they're trying to figure out who's gonna play quarterback. Their win total's sitting at five and a half this year, and Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shuck,

supposedly going to battle for this opportunity. Well, Painer hurt his oblique, I think it was. Yes. So that is a big time bummer to be in a, like a quarterback competition right now, and you can't throw for a while. Yeah, the news was basically that Spencer Rattler was looking really, really good. And when the news comes out that Spencer Rattler

is looking really good. Yeah, lower your win total. Lower your win total, exactly right. Yeah, all right. I don't think we have other news. Al, do you have anything back there? I'm looking over at Deucer's Alley. Everything's safe back there.

Everything good. Everything's all good back here. The Falcon immediately went to a nose wipe. I got a double check that like everybody's got their shirt on. Like nothing's wrong back there. For now, it's a bunch of degenerates. Yeah, well, they don't call it deuces alley for nothing We'll take a break and then we're gonna bring some wild card players

Is it news that we're still waiting for Aaron Rodgers to make a decision and he's doing he's doing interviews and stuff Yeah in front of a crowd and he's doing interviews and stuff like in front of a crowd. And he's doing his dumb. And he's teasing. Yeah. I mean, he's the Steelers quarterback. Like, he is the Steelers quarterback. I don't know what agreement, and I don't know why he won't just go sign right now,

but everyone knows he's gonna play for the Steelers. And what you're alluding to is he was asked like, oh, would you ever play for the Chicago Bears? And he like no but I might play in Chicago this year and it's like well that way the Steelers the Steelers have a game he is do the Saints play in in Chicago this year I don't believe okay he's a troll he's a troll and and look I would at that age the last if you're not on the team you don't got to do any other workouts you don't got to go to any of the events. Hey, you just troll.

Just from the outside. There was a rumor that- It'd be pretty cool if I was the quarterback. The backup plan for the Steelers would be Kirk Cousins if Rogers didn't work out. Yes, that I can get behind. No. Yes. No.

The Saints do play in Chicago, by the way. Oh, they do? Okay, so. Yeah, I think that's why the Saints- Captain troll. The Saints got thrown out as another possibility the way. Oh, they do? Okay, so. Yeah, I think that's why the Saints. Captain troll. The Saints got thrown out as another possibility. You know what I can get behind? Retirement?

Steelers. No, no, no. Mr. Tomlin, do something. Do something about, just somebody do something about the quarterback situation at Pittsburgh. If you. Because it is a disaster.

If you knew that Aaron Rodgers was gonna be your quarterback and it was just a posturing move to wait, you wouldn't need to do anything. Yeah I'm talking about just overall... You're saying he's not the answer. I'm saying BS. Oh I gotcha. Yeah Aaron Rodgers on this team. Aaron Rodgers goes to the Steelers. They're probably above 500. They probably sneak in and get a wild card spot, and then they lose in the first round again. Aaron Rodgers is their path to finally getting a good quarterback and finally finishing under 500. That is the future for the Steelers

that they don't know they want, is they want Aaron Rodgers to come on board so that they can finally have a losing season and get a decent quarterback. Dude, they won with Kenny Pickett. Oh, I know, and they would win with Mason Rudolph. They'll win with Aaron Rodgers. I'm telling you. He's a decent quarterback. They won with Kenny Pickett. Oh, I know. And they would win with Mason Rudolph. They'll win with Aaron Rodgers.

I'm telling you, Mason Rudolph is better for that team. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Rodgers will take it over and find a way to light it on fire. Jason's got it. I just want, I want Pittsburgh to have a good quarterback. Go get Kirk Cousins. I want them to have a good quarterback. Yeah, he said good. Man, good.

You like Kirk? A lot more than Aaron, yeah. I think Aaron's a better quarterback today than Kirk is. Agree to disagree. You watched football last year? I did. How did Kirk look? How did Aaron Rodgers do?

Much better than Kirk. No. Mike? One of them got benched, despite being paid a bajillion dollars, guaranteed. Well, one of them had a first round quarterback paid a bajillion dollars. Guaranteed. Well, one of them had a first round quarterback drafted behind him. Yeah. Okay. Well, one of them talk about talk about least favorite debates of all time. Like these, I don't want to talk about either of these guys. Let's talk about some wild cards. No, I'm saying no.

Guys, why are the brakes working? Because I cut the brakes. Wild card. Yeah. Fantasy wild cards players with a huge range of outcomes in 2025. Players that- They might cut your breaks. Players that we feel like were very difficult to rank when we were doing projections.

It is a reason why, and we didn't mention it at the top, but it's a reason why we have upside and risk ratings alongside statistical projections. It's meant to symbolize that certain players have a wide range of outcomes. They have high upside, high risk, variables in play. On the show last year, and I didn't realize this till just now,

or didn't remember it till just now, but we talked about Josh Jacobs and Jameson Williams and George Pickens on the show last year, all players that, look, Josh Jacobs ended up being a huge draft value. His upside was fulfilled. And Jamison Williams too, he had a big season. George Pickens, you saw the bat as well. Yeah, exactly.

So we've each kind of picked one main wild card to bring up and then we've got some honorable mention names as well. One of you guys want to kick it off? Sure. I will start here. It's a running back and I think that he's a wild card because as of right now my thoughts on my projections, they areulating. And my opinions of Aaron Jones are like, I don't know that I really want to draft him, but I have to at least recognize what happened last year, where he was very quietly the running back 16th,

over 11 points a game. Like in terms of consistency too, it's a B for the way that we grade, almost 59% of his games, he was over 10 and a game. In terms of consistency too, it's a B for the way that we grade. Almost 59% of his games, he was over 10 and a half points. So he wasn't giving you these huge ceiling games over and over, but he was consistently being a really solid running back too.

And then they give him more money when he's already old. It felt like a really strange thing. And then the bigger piece of this puzzle of making him a true wild card was the trade for Jordan Mason. They went and they saw a guy from San Francisco who started the year averaging 95 rushing yards per game through the first seven weeks.

Jordan Mason was great on the ground. But bringing him, and then they give Jordan Mason money. So it's like what, who is really- It's wild card rating all over. Who is really in charge of here? Like who, because like between Aaron Jones at his age, which another insane thing. This was the most, this was the

highest opportunities the last year that Aaron Jones has ever received. For real? Yes. In his career? In his career. He's been over 300 opportunities two times and it was 317 last year. And by the way his pace didn't change. They didn't say like oh you're you're a veteran so we'll give you a bunch in the beginning and look the split is almost identical. 300 plus opportunities, first half, second half. And if you were watching the Minnesota Vikings, you're like, I get why they need him. The team is just much, much better with Aaron Jones.

But the fact that they brought in Jordan Mason here, who will end up being just better on the ground this year? Jordan Mason or Aaron Jones? I don't know that I can answer that, but there exists a world where Aaron Jones still keeps 70% or so of the job, and he ends up being a solid running back too, yet again. There are certain players that fantasy football players

wanna be done with. Yeah. And I feel like, obviously for you, one of those names is Joe Mixon. Yes. I think you would love nothing more than to never to be done with Joe Mixon. I feel like Aaron Jones is in that same category where like people like they feel like the time is come and gone for Aaron Jones but they ignore the numbers that you just brought up. Now I would like Mixon more than Jones because of the Jordan Mason factor that you brought up,

but this is also an offense that like time and time again, we keep getting surprised with how good it is. Yeah, that's you should want the guy from Minnesota. What's the ADP for Aaron Jones right now? Do you have that up? Let's see. The sleeper looks about the back of the back of the six. That's insane. That seems like like if you're going, if you end up committing to a top tier quarterback, or a top tier tight end, and you end up with some wide receivers up front, and you're telling me you could have Aaron Jones as your RB2, would any of us be like,

extremely hesitant about that? I think I'm hesitant in the terms of... That's about where we have them, by the way. The receiving work, I feel very confident that that will go to Aaron Jones. All for whatever reason, they couldn't, they didn't even really try it last year when Jordan Mason was the true workhorse

for the San Francisco Fournevers. You don't know why? They still didn't throw it to him. Jordan Mason, Jordan Howard? Yeah, oh, Jordan's just, I think that's the problem. It's not a good name for a pass catcher running back. It's Stone Hands,

if your name's Jordan, it's Stone Hands. And so I think that'll go to him, but I just, I can't, it's hard to get a beat on what does this actual split look like, or do we get hot hand every single week? Yeah, I mean, I just was in a draft where I was staring down a couple running backs and Aaron Jones was there and he was a little bit lower in my rankings. I took a look and I reminded myself what he did last year and I was like, oh my gosh, he is the running

back one for a really good offense. I mean, part of it depends on JJ McCarthy. That's another huge wild card to Aaron Jones is like, will he succeed or will he not? I think all three of us universally believe he will succeed and that the Vikings will be a good offense this year. That's my belief. So I ended up drafting Aaron Jones a little bit higher than expected because, yeah, I mean, he feels safe outside of injury, but the injury, the fact that he just had over 300 carries

for only the second time in his career. 300 opportunities. 300 opportunities for the second time in his career, and he's older and he's dealt with injuries in the past, and he's smaller, that's actually my fear. But he also didn't get hurt. Last year, yeah. Right, right, which is, I mean, that says something that he did hold up.

Under the biggest workload of his career was his healthiest year. I would ask you this too, drafting Aaron Jones, how does that feel? It doesn't feel good. He's gonna be in drafts around rookies. He's gonna be around some rookies that you're gonna be thinking about,

do I wanna go try Caleb Johnson in Pittsburgh? Well, let's talk about the next wild card. Oh, is that your name? That's my name, baby. That was an amazing segue. That was, cause you didn't even know it was happening. I didn't know that. Yeah, my wild card is rookie running back Caleb Johnson.

Obviously, we've got the conundrum of wild card or who's the quarterback, but take that out. Right? We all know Teron Rogers. Regardless of that, the question for Caleb Johnson, Caleb Johnson was the sixth running back taken in this year's draft class. Usually that does not sound very good. Yeah, we just broke down all those RG Harvey numbers.

Right, but he was a day two pick, which is very good, because he's a very high quality running back class. And so Caleb Johnson was really a tear break, I think. Remember, the Steelers brought in nine running backs for their top 30 visits, which that's the most we have ever seen in the data that we have since 2015. And when they took Caleb Johnson, most of the running backs that they brought in were still available to be drafted as far as the ones that they brought in for top 30 visits. Caleb Johnson, I loved his film. He was already polarizing prior to the NFL draft. Yeah, I was not on that side. Right. And so you look at our rankings, I've got him right now ranked as running back 19.

Andy, you've got him at running back 32. And I totally see that. Like when you watch his film, I love this film. Other people watch his film and go, I can't stand this film. And he's a very patient, slow starting runner, but he's very explosive down the field. And you look at what they did with Jalen Warren this off season. They gave him a higher than expected tender,

signed him to bring him back. They talked prior to the NFL draft about, he can be our primary runner. But then they went out and tried to, they brought in a million running backs to look at and obviously prioritize that. They didn't have a second round pick, they still spent a day to pick on a running back. Caleb Johnson is coming into a situation where you've got the history of Mike Tomlin until very recently always having that one back system, you know, the Leveon Bell or the James Connor of the past. And

when I hear the quotes from, you know, from Mike Tomlin about this guy, they are, I mean, he's talking, this is what Tomlin said after the draft. He said, I was talking about physicality and a big man agenda. This is a high volume, capable runner who was the center of his offense. A lot of NFL Sunday like runs, if you will, meaning he did it from home position or the pistol position into a lot of loaded boxes. It wasn't a lot of guesswork or Saturday like holes in his tape that made the evaluation a fun one and easy one. I think by the end of this

year, he is the dude for this team. Big breakaway runs coming, but if you want to talk wild card, I mean first of all Arthur Smith is the OC. Oh man. What can we do? How can we trust? How can we trust in anything when he's the OC? That's tough. And then what is the workload of of Jalen Warren? Is he going to be what he has been? Or does he now, you know, there were other quotes from the offensive coordinator after the draft, saying it's a long rookie season, everything's gonna be new to him,

and they'll probably bring him along slowly. So maybe slowly is through camp, and like he earns it quicker, and starting in week one it's great, maybe it's halfway through the year, maybe it doesn't happen. But I do think that the high end for Caleb Johnson is very, very high.

I would put it just as high as RJ Harvey's where. It's a tough one. Especially if Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback. Because there'll be a trust factor there. You know Rodgers is gonna want the guy out there that's pass blocking. And so. The pass blocking will definitely go to Jayalen Warren a very good pass blocker

But you know, okay Caleb Johnson Najee Harris averaged 319 touches per year in his four years with the Steelers three of those years were with Jalen Warren So there's so so many opportunities here And since 2013 every single rookie running back drafted on day two who saw more than 220 opportunities finishes a top 25 running back, every single one. Right. If you get the opportunities that'll work. Right.

I mean, it's a vacated opportunities here are massive. It's just like R.J. Harvey. It is still long odds over the last 15 years to get that many opportunities as a day two pick. I think it's right in front of him. I think a lot of people know that. I think everybody that's trying to trade for him in dynasty is getting their trades rejected

because I think they know. Like Jaylen Warren, regardless of what he has this year, is not their future running back. No. In fact, the beat reporters are saying they don't expect him to be on the roster the next year in a dynasty league Caleb Johnson is amazing because he's very very young, you know We that was the conversation we had on the dynasty show was actually RJ Harvey versus Caleb Johnson Because I think most projections have RJ Harvey with a better rookie season than Caleb Johnson right now

Yeah, but there is a three three year age gap between those players. Ceiling and floor numbers for Caleb. I think the floor is lower with Caleb. I think the floor is gonna be running back 30, running back 32, somewhere around there. I think the ceiling is running back six. I believe this, to me. I was gonna say top 15.

I was gonna say like maybe, yeah, I'd say like 12 to 15. It's a real evaluation gamble because what happened if you didn't follow along, if you're just getting back into rookies this year, Caleb Johnson, his production profile, oh brother, you don't get better than this. He accounted for 43% of Iowa's total yardage last year, 52% dominated

rating. Easily best in this class. Even ahead of Gentie. Why was this guy? But then the combine happened. I was going to say, why was he the sixth running back off the board? The combine happened and he ran a slow 40. And Mike Tomlin talked about that. He's like, he's not slow, he's super fast. And no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. You turn that off. You turn that disrespect off.

He hit 22 miles per hour. That was Joyk Bell walking to this team. Oh, all right, okay, he was just nearby. He hit 22 miles per hour on the field, but he's not a sprinter. He doesn't- Took him 80 yards to get up to speed. Maybe, I mean-

Look, he's a polarizing, I mean, their GM came out and said they viewed Jalen Warren as starter worthy That was another comment. Yeah, so it's like that is it's a definition of a wild card I probably don't have the ceiling as high as you but but maybe next year maybe next year I do that Mike you didn't give us a floor and ceiling for Aaron Jones. Oh a floor for The floor for Aaron Jones I think is bad, because there's, the world exists. Like outside the top 36?

Maybe not that low, but outside of the top 30, like that, I think that could happen. And then the ceiling case for Aaron Jones would be probably right around where he finished last year. So like a top 15-ish guy. Okay. My wild card name is, it's a rough one, man. It is, this is like film versus reality to me

in a lot of ways. It's Jaden Reed, wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers. I do not know what to do with this guy. I feel like his range of outcomes and his potential, it's swirling into a tornado of what in the world do you do as a fantasy manager. I believe Jayden Reed is a top tier NFL wide receiver. I believe that everything I've seen on film for two years,

I believe he is their best wide receiver, including the drafting of Matthew Golden. I think Jayden Reed is definitely their best route runner, wide receiver, tons of explosive plays last year, his yards per catch went up three yards. And yet, he's not always on the field. And they use them in different weird ways. Now there's, there's a lot of positive Jayden Reed, you know, propaganda and news this off season. He's up to hul season. He's up to 199 pounds. We like him putting on weight. They say he's the leader of the wide receiver room.

He demanded, you know, like a meeting with the team because of the drafting of Matthew Golden to understand his hierarchy. Say what you will, like we know that a lot of these other wide receivers in Green Bay are heading out the door. Right, like Christian Watson's time there and Dobbs and who knows about Wicks. The weird thing about Reid is that he's not always

on the field. Last year, 63% of the time he's on the field. He's not out there in two wide receiver sets very often. Now the Packers, it doesn't matter sometimes. They're a 80% three wide out set situation. He's just, like he, the first four games of last year summarize why Jayden Reed is a wild card. He finished as the wide receiver one in week one. He finished as the wide receiver two in week four. In between he

was a wide receiver 48 and 42. Like he disappears. He's not a part of the game plan and not a part of the offense and I will tell you, this is going to sound like people won't agree. But when Stefan Diggs was coming up in Minnesota, it was actually very similar. It took, if you go look at Stefan Diggs is career trajectory, he didn't hit a thousand yards till year four. He was a 60% player on Minnesota. But in the beginning, when you watch the fond, when you watch the fond digs play. Oh yeah.

I remember I, I knew Stefan Diggs was something special and that is how I feel by Jayden Reed. Now this year is a defining year for me. This is why he's a wild card. I think your price for Jayden Reed is, it's going to be, it's going to be cheap. Right?

Like the upside for Jayden Reed to me is wide receiver 15 wide receiver 13, 14. Like if the season goes the right way, that's where he could be. But his other end is wide receiver 38, 40, somewhere in that department. So, you know, last year he was wide receiver, you can see it there on the screen, 26 was his fantasy finish, but it was a hugely inconsistent and disappointing year So to me he is like Matthew Golden. The nice thing is is that Matthew Golden does not represent Alpha to me Is that because he wasn't an alpha on his college team? That would be one of the reasons why like a Matthew Golden is awesome for

Jordan love he's awesome for the offense Matthew Golden is awesome for Jordan Love. He's awesome for the offense. He's going to open up the offense in ways that Christian Watson did when he was healthy. But he's not going to be a volume. Like, if Matthew Golden's- I can't wait for Golden to have disappearing games. I mean, the name is just right there, baby.

Just out there being a golden goose. Oh, yeah. Okay. Yeah, switch! I had to get it in quick. I was concerned where you were going. I don't know where you thought I was going. Oh. To the showers? I can see it. I think so. Why do I say words? Goodness gracious, stupid, so stupid. So yeah, look, I'm gonna have Jayden Reed everywhere. I'm gonna have him everywhere. So your end result is that you're in on Jayden Reed. That's very interesting.

Good coach, good quarterback, good offense, good team, good player. That's a five-fingered recommendation. Now that's great, but I will say this. Just the counterpoint, and obviously this is why he's a wild card, I have decided I won't have him anywhere. It's because I'll have already drafted him. Sure, you'll draft him ahead.

No, that's fine. But last year, before drafting a first round rookie wide receiver who will also be on the field and stop him from, you know, having the snap percentage that we want, he had a D consistent, 35% of his games. Like he was actively hurting people last year if you were trying to play him,

even including the games he helped you win. And it came part and parcel with Jordan Love's kind of descent from a quarterback five overall finish. Like, cause Jayden Reed's rookie season, he was a wide receiver 23. Yeah. kind of descent from a quarterback five overall finish. Because Jayden Reid's rookie season, he was a wide receiver 23. With a quarterback five in Jordan Love. So yeah, wild card.

Is the 3.2 receptions per game. I just believe he's really, really good. I genuinely do. I believe that too. But I don't know how you have a good player on your team who's catching the ball barely three times a game. That's insane. Yeah, I mean.

You know who that reminds me of? Matthew Golden, no joke. He's like a really good player on his college team that is barely involved. I mean, yeah, look, Stephon Diggs, it took a long time. Yeah, but Diggs was at least, year two, I think he was catching like, over- He had 84 receptions in year two.

He's catching six balls a game in year two. Yeah, you're right. I mean, it's not, he will not level up, fantasy-wise, if he doesn't get more opportunity. Yeah, the team has to make a decision. I just think that he's gonna get more opportunity because that, the team has to make a decision. I just think that he's gonna get more opportunity because that's in the best interest of the team. Well, and also, when you bet,

we talk about this more when we get closer to draft season, but it is a really good bet to bet on wide receivers, later in drafts, from wide receiver cores that are good that you just don't know who, you don't know where the the you know What what the packing order is that's why there's a discount Yeah, but part of that and we don't ever want to talk about it because it's pure luck but part of it is just

Injuries sometimes propel players to have more opportunities Yeah, if you're betting on a talented guy on a good offense with a good quarterback. Yeah, maybe the first couple games You know, it's like he's on the field 60% of the time and whatever, but then next thing you know, one of the wider suit dobs goes down to injury. Jaden Reid has to step up. And I mean, that, that can only happen when you're betting on talent. Right. Cause you have to believe like, cause there've been opportunities for dobs in injury gaps. Right. And that hasn't led to like start amazing start. Yeah, you need to be talented enough to step into it.

It's a good point. We'll take another break and we'll come back with a few more wild card names that we have picked out. ["Wild Card Name"] All right, give me one more honorable mention wild card name that has your brain spinning. I'm going to go first out of order here just because going from Jaden Reed to this player was a wacky and wild trade that we just made in our dynasty league. We traded Jaden Reed

for Tyreke Hill in dynasty. What's Tyreke doing on this show? Tyreek is a complete wild card. I mean, this is a player who two years ago was the wide receiver one. He was the best wide receiver. He was drafted, if it wasn't Christian McCaffrey, it was often Tyreek Hill this last year. And now, this last year, he's old and he doesn't hit a thousand yards.

He goes from 1800 yards to 959 yards with one more game, with way more routes. And he's old. So it's like, okay, is this an age thing? Is this a two a thing? He's 31. He didn't hit a thousand yards. He was the wide receiver 23. But could he just bounce back? Oh, it was the wrist.

It was, you know, I don't know what to do with, like I'm out on Tyree Kill for where he is in drafts. But in the back of your head, you know, something different could happen. Absolutely, I'm not saying I'm out because I'm right. I'm saying I'm just putting the odds more that an older wide receiver coming off of a down year doesn't usually bounce back. but I'm terrified of that.

My name, and I brought it up a couple times because I'm the lowest of this group on it, it's Rashi Rice in Kansas City. Super wild card. Because he's just a weird player in some respects. Like 68% of his receiving yardage came after the catch. That's what he does, man. It is what he does, but he does it at,

like he benefited from all the attention that Travis Kelsey demands when Travis Kelsey is elite and Travis Kelsey is diminishing. And you have Xavier Worthy emerging and you have Hollywood Brown returning. So all of those variables mixed together with an injury that's a six to nine month timeline that, okay, he's back. He'll be at training camp.

Like does it all go his way again to the point where it's worth that draft pick? Like I have worthy ahead of him in my rankings right now. Like I, I don't know of either of those guys is a perennial top 15 wide receiver. I think maybe the Mahomes with these guys era is those guys sit between 16 and 25. I don't know. It's a wild card because the potential for Rashi Rice is top, like I think I have him, his ceiling's probably seven or eight, in my opinion. But I think his floor is outside the top 24.

I agree. I mean, I am pretty confident that Rice will be good, but certainly, I mean, you bringing up the diminishing Kelsey and the coverage changes because they're both working in the same area of the field. Yes, yes. And that's, and Rushy Rice was always basically single covered in the little slant

that worked every single time, but only for three games before he got injured. That's the part where it's like, would teams have adjusted? Does it change? Does he have more in his bag? Right. And is he has he been able to, you know, as a young wide receiver progresses, they get better, they get stronger. Also, you get a better route runner, except he's been

injured the whole year. You just shocked me, by the way. Because I didn't remember that his stint was that short. Oh, it was three games. Like it feel like the breakout. if you had asked me based on memory how long he had played, I would have told you six weeks, eight weeks. So it was only three weeks. It was because of how good those three weeks were.

I mean those three weeks. They were good. He was on pace. They were good. You wanna hear the pace? 163 targets, 1632 yards, 11.3 touchdowns. They were really good. It was nice. And nobody could stop, I remember the three of us

were watching these games together. And we're frustrated. Yeah, but have you seen Cincinnati try to stop somebody? That's fair, but I've seen Baltimore stop people. Look, I was waiting for the adjustment by teams, and it wasn't happening yet. It was like, why are they letting him do the same little? Yeah, I think he's a wild card. I really do.

You know my home's gonna hit him right in stride. His ADP is a fourth round pick. I don't think I'll spend it. I don't think I'll spend it. I might. I think I will. What's your last name Mike? So it's a don't forget Wait, what is this? What are we chuckling about? The way you said what's your last name? What's your last name? I was waiting for him to say right. Sorry. Thank you, Al. Jason and I were on the same page.

That's not me. What's your last name, Mike? I should have got that one. I apologize. The last name. Final. Cedric Tillman of the Cleveland Browns. Good name.

Good name. Look, this was a very short-lived breakout. It really was about four full games. But I bring him up because, number one, that did happen. And on the other side, you have Jerry Judy, who at the exact same time as Tillman, he was starting his breakout, but then Tillman got the concussion

and was out the rest of the season. And then Jerry Judy, of course, goes on to have just an unbelievable second half and finishes it with over 1,200 yards. But in that month span where, like Cedric Tillman was getting more of an opportunity, because they had just traded Amari Cooper, for those at home who forget what happened. Opportunity popped up. Cedric Tillman was getting more of an opportunity because they had just traded Amari Cooper for

those at home who forget what happened. Opportunity popped up. This third round pick that they had just taken two years ago is finally getting a chance. Talking about Cedric Tillman. And he is coming through in that time period. He's averaging over 75 yards, receiving yards a game and almost a full touchdown. And in that time, Jerry Judy is at 78 yards. Like, so both of these guys are, are doing some serious work. That was the flacco. This was, this was a James James. Oh, James. That gets me to the only thing better than a flack. Oh, is it James? Which gets me to the next part of, do you have to filter? Do you have to get your pan and filter through that this was

Jamis Winston playing and the two wide receivers for the Browns combined are averaging 150 yards. I think Judy's a wild card too. But here's the thing, because Jerry Judy ended up really taking advantage of everything that could possibly go right for Jerry Judy. Of his main, his two main competition wide receivers are gone. His garbage quarterback is out. Jameis the gunslinger is in and then there was you know some more rotation of course through through the end of the season. But Jerry Judy, while people are like I don't you know he he's a while. He's a I don't know I don't know. I'll take him in the sixth Cedric Tillman is

Is he being drafted? He's borderline Yeah, this would be like this would be like the last pick so either get to get a wide receiver thing of a player who? Very small sample I get it, but he was doing the same He's a lowercase wild card. You can barely see him. But at the same time, this was a day two pick, and this isn't his fourth or fifth year.

He got really hurt, man. Remember he was supposed to be coming back every week, and then it was like, uh. I think what happened is, maybe I am off base here, but it also seemed like at the end of the year when they were losing every game and going after the number one pick, why bring a guy back?

Just shut him down. I think he would want to be back though. But you could be right. He reminded me of Nico Collins. It sounds like incredibly high praise, but that type of play. Well, he's a good contested catch, big bodied end zone target. So yeah, it makes sense. He surprised people in a very positive way. He was able to handle high target load in

those games and do a lot with it. But I mean, the troubling part about that is just the quarterback situation and not knowing what in the world's going on from week to week. Oh, absolutely. Over, under three quarterback changes in Cleveland this year. Changes, so that's a good one. Are you counting a guy who goes back in? Yes. Then over.

Three. Like how do you, so can he, let me ask you this question. Let's put it this way. It's probably over three. Yeah, I mean it's like, can he pick it? Is he gonna have snaps for the Browns? Yes, he will start week one.

If Flacco is on the roster, is he having snaps for the Browns? I don't think he'll be on the roster, but yeah, he probably would. Sanders is getting snaps? Gabriel? Gabriel will definitely get snaps. Yeah, and all you need is a few to move on to Sanders.

Sure. I don't know, and they rotated them all last year. So that's the point. They're gonna find a good one. They have so many options. That's right, that's right. So my larger point for Cedric Tillman is if you are into the archetype of,

if you're into drafting Jerry Judy, you should keep an open mind that you might, on some of your teams, want to just draft Cedric Tillman at the end. Yeah I thought Jerry Judy went irresponsibly low in our mock draft on Thursday. I think what Jerry Judy showed ceiling-wise last year made I think he was where did he go was it late 6th? Was it later than that? In our mock? That's about his ADP. Yeah, and I think that's wrong.

No, he went at the back to the seventh. Okay, that's what it was then. It was almost eighth round. That's insane. This was a guy that literally, he was like the best wide receiver in football for a stretch. Yeah, I think the second half of the year,

he was like wide receiver four, finished the season as wide receiver 15. He had 1,200 receiving yards. Yeah, he was great. Eighth round, obvious wide receiver one for this team. The issue is obviously the quarterback. I mean, if Jamis was the quarterback, you'd see, I mean. Draft Jerry Judy. That's just a fun question.

If Jamis was the quarterback this year, where would? Oh, that is, that's a good question. Would Judy be in the like first round? Like no joke, would he be in the second round? He would not be in the first round, but he would be in the third. Yeah, he wouldn't get out of the third I don't think he'd get out of the second. Yeah, that's I mean Yeah, you're right. No, that's a that's a if James had been crowned Well, Tillman would be a fourth then you know what I mean the joke would be number one overall

James Winston is a king. let that man start for us. He is a kingmaker. That'll do it for today's episode. UltimateDraftGit.com comes out on Sunday. We'll be back with another episode on Thursday. Talk to you then. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

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