Freakonomics Radio - 507. 103 Pieces of Advice That May or May Not Work
Episode Date: June 16, 2022Kevin Kelly calls himself “the most optimistic person in the world.” And he has a lot to say about parenting, travel, A.I., being luckier — and why we should spend way more time on YouTube. ...
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A few weeks ago, millions of people in the UK celebrated a remarkable anniversary.
The Queen is the first monarch of Great Britain who has ever reached this amazing milestone,
70 years on the throne and still going.
Queen Elizabeth II has become the longest reigning monarch in British history.
She didn't get there entirely on her own.
The queen has a team of advisors known as the Privy Council, from whom she can seek
advice.
This council has existed in one form or another since the 13th century.
So that's nice.
But how about the rest of us?
We commoners with no access to a privy council. To whom shall
we turn for sage advice? Yeah. I'm Kevin Kelly. I'm the senior maverick at Wired Magazine,
and I like to package ideas. Okay. I believe he will do. And when Kevin Kelly says he likes to
package ideas, that means what? I like to edit things, my ideas and other people's
ideas, to communicate and share with others. So maybe I am a communicator, maybe I'm a curator.
A little bit of a fortune teller or not quite? I don't use the futurist word because
most of what we're doing is trying to predict the present.
And that's hard enough.
That's hard enough.
Kelly has published many books, including a few that address how humans intersect with technology.
And he was actually a co-founder of Wired magazine back in 1993.
In 2000, he started Cool Tools, a website devoted to, well, yeah, cool and affordable tools,
which he defines as anything that can be useful.
Hand tools, books, gadgets, even ideas.
Kelly is hard to pin down, and part of his magic is you don't want to pin him down.
Let me put it this way.
If I were the queen, I'd want him on my privy council. And Kelly has just
hit his own 70-year mark, not on the throne, but on the planet. To mark his birthday these past
few years, he has been publishing on his website a list of advice. I started writing down just a
few little notes, and I surprised myself
because I found out I had more to say.
And so I wrote a bunch of them.
I was 68, so I wrote 68 of them the first time.
We liked that list of 68
enough to make a Freakonomics Radio episode about it.
You can find it in the archive, number 419.
It's called 68 Ways to Be Better at Life.
This year, for his 70th birthday,
Kelly blew right past 70 ideas. I realized I had a lot more in me, and I just kept going.
He kept going all the way to 103. My joy in writing them was almost like poetry,
was refining them to see, can I make this even shorter and still have it convey something?
And that has been the writer's challenge.
I don't like to write, but I like having written, and I especially like to write little things.
Today on Freakonomics Radio, the little things Kevin Kelly has written about parenting, about travel, about the future.
So let me just verify. Do I know that I'm going to live to a thousand?
But a word of caution, too.
Maybe advice is not really the right word.
Maybe it should be stuff that worked for me.
It might work for you.
All right, then.
The stuff that worked for Kevin Kelly, starting right now.
This is Freakonomics Radio,
the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything with your host, Stephen Dubner.
We've spoken a few times on this show, Kevin, and I've never actually asked you the question I'm about to ask you because it was so obvious to me, but I'm going to ask it just to make sure.
Do you consider yourself an optimist?
I am the most optimistic person in the world. It's certainly the most optimistic person that you know. Let me put it this way. I am the most optimistic person I know.
Would you say that your optimism has increased with age, decreased with age, or stayed roughly the same? or because I'm smarter than I was before. But I am more optimistic now than I have ever been before.
And I think it's in part because I've been able to articulate my optimism,
because I have reasons for it, and because I've seen it at work.
So give us a few reasons to be optimistic right now in 2022, especially for someone who hears you say that you're so optimistic and thinks,
oh, well, he's crazy. There's no reason to be optimistic about anything.
There are several reasons to be as optimistic as you possibly can in general. And then there's
other reasons why we should be optimistic at this point in history. I think the reason to
be optimistic in general is that we kind of have a moral duty to
do so because anything good these days is going to be complicated. And it's very unlikely that
we would make a world that we want of this complexity inadvertently without having an idea
in our head of what it is. And so,
there's an element of optimism that is pre-visioning, of imagining the good world
that we want in order to make it happen. That is a work of optimism. I think optimists understand
that problems propel progress and that progress is real.
Okay, that's your reasoning for being optimistic generally.
What about at this particular point in history?
If we look at the reality of today, we see that things have been getting better for most of the things that we care about over time.
But they aren't getting that much better.
It's a tiny, tiny little bit of improvement over
each, say, year that is often invisible, except if we look in retrospect. And if we look in
retrospect, we see that progress is real. Now, it could all of a sudden stop after 300 years.
It could stop tomorrow. That's possible, but it's unlikely. So, statistically, it's going to continue at least
next year. But there is a problem, which is that it's hidden in a certain sense. And
one of the things about pessimists that make them sound so smart is that the problems are visible.
They're very, very visible. And so, part of being optimistic, I think, is understanding that there's a bias in all media, which is that what optimism is mostly about is what did not happen.
What did not happen was I wasn't robbed on the way to the grocery store and my 12-year-old daughter did not die of smallpox. a sense in which only the bad stuff is what we hear about in the last five minutes, whereas
if we were only to write headlines every year or so, they would look very differently.
So this year, in conjunction with your turning 70 years old, you published your list of advice.
This year, you called it 103 Bits of Wisdom.
I wish I had known when I was young.
Here's one. Cultivate 12 people who love
you because they're worth more than 12 million people who like you. What's that all about? What
inspired that? I think the obvious reference is to the likes and follows on social media,
where you have people really trying hard to have a lot of followers. I know a couple people,
friends, who actually have like a million followers on some
of these. And I've asked them occasionally, like, what do you get out of that? And it's remarkable
how unproductive having that many followers is. That kind of striving for liking is not very
fruitful. I don't really care whether people like me. I care if they respect me.
I actually respect people that I don't like. And so, it's trying to shift the general relationship
that we have with each other. I mean, part of the thing about having brothers and sisters
and coming from a big family is that you're kind of allowed not to like everybody in your family, but you still can love them and deal with them.
Here's one I love. 90% of everything you write is crap. If you think you don't like opera,
romance novels, TikTok, country music, vegan food, NFTs, keep trying to see if you can find
the 10% that is not crap. Advice for finding the
non-crap 10%? I have to say, this one I'm talking to myself because I often get very impatient. So,
the only bit of advice for me is to keep returning to it with as much grace and open-mindedness as
possible because, you know, nine times out of ten, you're going to be very disappointed. And so, like, why are you going to go back the tenth time?
And, of course, your life is limited.
We can't try all the stuff that we don't like.
But when I have a chance, and it's not too difficult,
I'll give things a second or third or fourth chance.
And occasionally, I do change my mind, and it's like, wow,
I'm glad that I pursued that because I didn't see it in the beginning. Now, you would seem to be in a minority in that regard. There's research,
it wasn't super scientific research by Robert Sapolsky that showed that most people, by the
time they reach, let's say, between 30 and 40 years old, they're pretty locked into their
preferences in terms of the kinds of food they'll eat, the music they'll listen to, the people they'll hang out with, and so on, and that we form habits and we form an identity of
ourselves that says, I'm the kind of person who eats this, listens to this, does that.
Do you have any advice generally for being more fluid, I guess, as you get older?
Don't sit in the same chair every night. I mean, I deliberately try not to do that at the table to make sure I don't get
into these ruts. And I ask my kids to make me a playlist for birthday presents. Give me all the
music you're listening to as a way to hear new things and see if I can get into it. When you go
out to eat, order your favorite thing and then order something you've never ordered before.
I think it has to be a very deliberate thing.
It doesn't really come easy.
Here's one that resonated with me in part because it's very practical and in part because it has happened to me.
You write, when checking references for a job applicant, employers may be reluctant or prohibited from saying anything negative. So instead, you write,
leave or send a message that says, get back to me if you highly recommend this applicant as super
great. And if they don't reply, take that as a negative. Does that actually work? Do you know
people who've had success with that method? Yes, I have used that method. There is a kind of a weird cultural moment right now where there actually are companies that cannot comment on previous employees and stuff. There is a bias to say anything negative for various reasons. message on an answering machine earlier and now with an email saying, you know, only reply if this
person is super great. And sometimes I have not heard back anything. That's a sign. And other
times I've heard back, yes, you're lucky to have this person. You write, to keep young kids behaving
on a car road trip, have a bag of their favorite candy, and throw a piece out the window each time they
misbehave. Okay, you have three kids. They're grown now. Did you actually do this?
Well, we did it once. And once is all that you have to do.
When I read that, I thought, well, if that works, it works because of what economists call loss
aversion, right? It's more painful to lose something than it is to gain the same thing.
Do you think that's why it does work, or is there something even simpler than
that? Yeah, it's just loss aversion. And I want to add, I amended my thing to unwrapped candy
because I got penalized on the internet for littering. So that's one of your 103 pieces
of advice. But there's another one that this one seems to run contra to, which is the following.
You'll get 10 times better results by elevating good behavior
rather than punishing bad behavior, especially in children and animals.
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.
Can you square that circle?
I can't, but it is true. It is true that it's more effective to try and encourage
good behavior than it is bad behavior.
Now, I realize this is not your realm, but how do you think the argument you're
making here about generally rewarding good behavior rather than punishing bad, how do you
think that intersects with a current movement in the progressive political movement to, let's say,
abolish policing and incarceration? I will say that we as a society are pretty confused about what we want to do
with, say, criminal behavior. We have a whole system which is really not clear. Is it punishing?
Is it rehabilitation? Is it restitution? We are really confused about what the intention is,
but I don't know what the correct answer would be.
I believe in moral progress. I believe that we actually are behaving better than we were
a thousand years ago or two thousand years ago, and that we collectively, humans, are inventing
ourselves. We're inventing our humanity. Our sense of fairness and all these things are things that
we have invented. I don't think they come naturally.
I think they come from growing up in this system, being trained.
We may over time absorb some of this genetically as we have changed our jaws from cooking and
things like that.
So I make this claim that humans are the first animals we domesticated.
And we're still domesticating ourselves.
And this issue right now of what do we do with bad behavior
or even really harmful bad behavior and I think we're kind of changing our minds about that and
that process is very messy and there's lots of things that don't work I think we're nowhere
close to having a good solution to it and, confusion indicates that we have a lot of work
to do ahead in trying to understand what the optimal thing is for a society. But it's clear
that, you know, you need police. It's clear that we need somewhere for people to go. But,
you know, in between, there's a lot of room for improvement. Ask anyone you admire, you write, their lucky breaks
happened on a detour from their main goal. So embrace detours. Life is not a straight line
for anyone, you write. What I want to ask you about is the lucky part of that. Do you think
it's easier for us to see the lucky breaks in other people or in ourselves, because it strikes me that a lot of
people, myself included, probably you included as well, when we accomplish something, we tend to
attribute it to our grit and or talent, et cetera, as opposed to the fact that, you know, I happen to
have been born in an amazing place and time, you know, America, mid-20th century, late 20th century.
I happen to have been born inth century. I happen to have
been born in good health. I happen to have been born into a family that was, you know,
honest and honorable and so on. We do know there is a growing literature about the role of luck
in success, and I am curious to know how well you think we are generally at recognizing our own fortune? Yeah, I would say we are not very good about acknowledging the luck in our own lives.
One of the metrics that I use for people that admire is the degree to which they acknowledge
luck in their lives. And I have very little patience with particularly successful people
who don't acknowledge the luck. And if
I have gained any knowledge or wisdom over time, it is my increasing realization and admittance that
I am the product of luck. There's just no way around it. But having said that, I think you can
still choose luck. I have to say this very carefully in the sense that there are people
who are luckier than others, and it's not because of how they were born. I have to say this very carefully in the sense that there are people who are luckier
than others, and it's not because of how they were born. I think there's probably different
species of luck. The little bit I've read about luck is that people who have decided that they
are lucky are luckier. And so, lucky people are expecting to be lucky, and that expectation
is self-fulfilling. It's kind of like that
increasing returns. It's because I have been lucky, I expect to be lucky, and therefore,
I am going to be more lucky. In the same way, if you decide that you're an unlucky person,
you're not going to be lucky, and that's also been proven.
Here's one I like. Actual great opportunities do not have, quote,
great opportunities in the subject line.
Yeah, have you noticed that? I mean, the ones from Nigeria, it's very obvious.
It's just this idea that most great opportunities don't look like great opportunities at the time.
The truly great ones are usually hidden in some ways or disguised or obscured by the problems that prevent other people from taking them. And so, particularly if you're young, you want to be
working in an area where there's no name for what it is that you're doing, where you're ahead of the
language. You have trouble describing what it is that you do to someone else. Your mother doesn't
understand what it is.
You write, your growth as a conscious being is measured by the number of
uncomfortable conversations you are willing to have.
How can people be encouraged to have more uncomfortable conversations?
And let's, for the sake of this conversation, agree that uncomfortable conversation doesn't
mean just shouting at someone, I'm right,
you're wrong, etc.? Yeah, uncomfortable conversations usually entail a certain level
of vulnerability on one or the other or both parties, meaning that you're willing to talk
about something that you may not want to talk about or the other person may not want to talk
about. I don't think this is a matter of plunging deep into the most difficult thing. It's something that you can kind of train
yourself to do. It reminds me of a research paper we featured on this show a year or two ago. It was
about asking what the researchers called sensitive questions. And it found that almost everybody avoided asking the questions that we deem
sensitive questions about, you know, money, sex, politics, et cetera, et cetera, because
we assume the other person does not want to talk about them. It turns out it's exactly wrong.
Right, right. They're waiting for you to ask. I think it kind of related to another piece of
advice, which is if you really make it clear that you really are listening, that is what people want and are willing to open up.
Not start to berate them or express surprise, but really kind of like, I really want to hear your story about this.
That is the key thing, to be a really good active listener, meaning you're reflecting back that
you're hearing that person. By the way, you could ask a question and then listen to someone for
half an hour as they talk, and they will describe you as a great conversationalist,
right? Because you're listening. That's the primary thing, a genuine interest in their answer. And you can ask people
about almost anything with that kind of very sincere listening.
Coming up after the break, we will sincerely listen to Kevin Kelly's thoughts about how
to see yourself better and more. This is Freakonomics Radio. I'm Stephen Dubner.
We will be right back.
When we spoke with Kevin Kelly, he was in a COVID quarantine at home in Pacifica,
California, just outside of San Francisco. He had recently returned from a trip to England.
Most of his travels, however, have found him in more remote places. He recently published a three-volume book called Vanishing Asia that includes 50 years of his photographs
from Siberia in the north to Indonesia in the south and everything in between. Kelly has spent
a lot of time in places many of us have never heard of. Here is one of the 103 pieces of advice he recently published.
Always read the plaque next to the monument.
And let me say right off the bat that that is stolen right from the 99% Invisible podcast.
That is their motto.
It's a good place to steal from.
I was just hiking in the Cotswolds this week, and there was a plaque about a nuclear bunker that we'd walked past and had no idea what it was or that it was even there.
And then there was a plaque for a site that turned out to be a burial mound that they believe was older than the pyramids.
There's always a story about something, and it's not evident or obvious, and it'll always enrich
your lives. And there's a courtesy in the plaque saying, hey, I'm pretty interested in saying you
just spend one minute here, and I'll tell you, I'll let you in on the secret. And then you do it,
you say, thank you, plaque, that was amazing. I'm so glad you stood there all that time.
Are you saying that plaques need to be a little bit more aggressive?
You know, I think with the metaverse and things like this, that we will have a version of plaques where if there's something really interesting, particularly that you're attuned to,
it will be a little bit more active and waving hands saying,
oh, over here, over here, over here.
You're really going to like this.
Really, really.
And so, you know,
they can get out of hand, but I think I'm looking forward to that.
So, Kevin, you are a founding board member of the Long Now Foundation, which is a non-profit
that tries to encourage long-term thinking and long-term problem solving. If you were going to live to, let's say, a thousand years old, or maybe 10,000 years old,
or maybe infinity, how would you live your life differently? Because plainly, scarcity
leads us to make a certain type of decision. And if life were not as scarce, or at least as finite,
I'm curious how the advice you're giving here might change.
That's a really good question. And I have to confess, I've never
seriously considered this idea of, say, living for a thousand years. I am right now trying to
live my life with the idea that I'm not going to live forever. So presumably it would change.
Let me just verify. Do I know that I'm going to live to a thousand?
Yeah. You know, the reason I'm asking this
question is it's always struck me that among the many paradoxes about human life is that
it's precious in part because it's finite.
And, you know, young people, as has been written about since the beginning of time, young people
don't really have a sense often of their mortality.
But as you get older, you do. And that really does change how you behave, how you think about
the world and other people. But if that were not the case, what I really want is the essential
stuff, is how that would change your relationship to what it means to be a human and what kind of
core you would have. I would definitely eat more ice cream, right off the bat.
I have to say, I was expecting something slightly more philosophical than ice cream.
Well, that's the whole point of the ride here.
It's very physical.
It's very embodied in the senses and sensual.
And so I'm going to take advantage of that for sure.
Here's the thing.
I think right now we are still doing mostly short-term things. The kind of projects that I have been mostly involved
with are on a five-year horizon. If you have a thousand years, then I could start doing like
25-year projects or 50-year projects or century projects. And I think that's part of what we have
right now as a society is that we are not doing enough of what we would need to be intergenerational projects, like a cathedral.
It would take 100 years to build and therefore would outlast us and some other generation would have to complete it.
With a thousand-year lifespan, you could do some really big projects that you wouldn't even think about doing the current lifespan.
Do you have any personal cathedral projects,
things that you would be doing if you had 10 times, 100 times the amount of time on Earth?
One of the things that I've been involved with at the Long Now Foundation was trying to build like a 10,000-year library.
I would like to have a way of not just archiving,
but maybe say organizing the world's knowledge to ensure that it was available.
I thought Google did that for us. Wasn't that their intention?
But here's the issue is everything we know about digital information is it's very easy to replicate within time, but it's very difficult to replicate over time.
So will all that knowledge still be there in 100 years?
Like what's it on?
A big solar flare could wreak havoc.
It could eradicate all the data.
So a real kind of civilizational approach
to this information, we really haven't
really grappled with it.
Is there a backup?
Right now, this is true, right now,
there is one crazy guy, one guy who's making a backup of the internet, Brewster Kahle. One guy!
Why isn't that like not just a national project, but like a civilizational planetary project?
So that would be one project, curating the archive of all human knowledge
and then structuring it in a way
that makes it accessible to everybody
and then ways to improve that knowledge.
I would also like to make a version of YouTube
that's closer to Wikipedia.
Right now, anybody can edit Wikipedia
and you can improve it.
Right now, if you have a really good tutorial on YouTube, it's very hard to improve it.
Some of that's because of IP issues, but the tools aren't really ready.
And so that's a short-term thing, but that's the kind of place I would go with if I had a thousand years to live.
You're right. You write, you see only 2% of another person and they acknowledge the fact that you're seeing a superficial percent of someone.
There's a history.
There's all kinds of things going on.
Lots of people's behaviors are formed because of their genetics, because of their background and upbringing.
And those are not always visible.
So part of what you're doing is seeking a deeper and fuller vision of that person. They do something that may
seem strange or even annoying, but saying there's something else going on here. So I think the first
step is simply to acknowledge that. And then, you know, to have these difficult conversations or to
give someone a second chance, that's a good way to go a little deeper.
So I don't think we can even get to this knowing 100%,
even if you're married to that person.
What percentage of yourself do you think you actually see and know?
That's a great question.
I mean, another of your maxims is a great way to understand yourself
is to seriously reflect on everything you find irritating in others.
Yes.
So, I guess that's one way to turn a mirror on yourself. But can you just talk more about that?
If you see only 2% of me, let's say, how much of yourself do you see?
You know, I'd be surprised if we see 10% of ourselves. I think we have great difficulty
in understanding ourselves and knowing ourselves. And part of, I think,
what we're going to be seeing as we go forward with neuroscience and artificial intelligence
is acquiring new tools that will help us to understand how our minds work and then individually,
eventually, to understand ourselves a little better, because I don't think we understand
ourselves very well at all. So maybe 10%.
You write, the chief prevention against getting old is to remain astonished. So you're not that
old, Kevin. You just turned 70. But what does astonish you these days?
Oh my gosh.
Is that a long list?
Yes. So many things. I am just completely astonished by YouTube almost on a
daily basis. I am astonished by the amount of creativity, innovation, sharing, and I don't
see how you cannot be astonished if you spent a day on YouTube just going to whatever corners you
can find. It is really underrated in terms of its influence on the culture.
It's underrated as an accelerant of learning.
I am just blown away and astonished by all kinds of things,
including what amazing humans can do.
So you write these lists and you publish them on your site and the people who read you
seem to love them. They leave these rapturous comments. But I'm curious how or if you know
that your advice is any good, because it may be that these are things that have worked for you.
But what about what's called survivorship bias, right? We hear about the things that have
survived. So, I'm curious how you know when you are, quote, right about something.
Yeah. I have no idea whether these are right for others. And for me, that's what advice means.
What I'm saying is that these worked for me. So, it may be that we need a new word. Maybe
advice is not really the right word. Maybe it should be
stuff that worked for me. It might work for you. I think advice is like little hats that you try on.
They aren't rules. They aren't meant to be infallible. They're meant to be useful. And
if it isn't useful, just forget about them.
Do you think there's too much or too little advice giving in the world today? Or I guess
it's possible just the right amount.
Here's what I would like. I would like everybody to do one of these. I would like Steve Dovner
to do a version of his own and send it out. So in that sense, I would like to see more. I have a huge appetite for hearing people try and reduce or extract what they know into something that's readable and transferable. And so I would say there's not enough advice in the world. the act of thinking, which may seem fundamental, but it's an activity that a lot of people don't
spend much time on. And it's hard to blame us people. Life is busy. Thinking hard can be
difficult, can be lonely. And also, I would argue there are a lot of elements of the new
digital economy that actively dissuade us from having to think at all. A lot of decisions are being
made for us without really assessing options or consequences. So, do you think it's important to
actively encourage people to spend more time actually thinking?
Yeah, I mean, I think you kind of almost veered onto Alfred Whitehead's definition of civilization,
which was that civilization advanced to the degree which we
didn't have to think about other things. So instead of having to think about where am I going to get
enough food to eat, we could think about some other things because we have a system called
civilization that provides all the food that we need and more. So I think what I would see over
time is us switching where we spend time with our attention and our
thinking up the Maslow hierarchy away from basic things about survival and shelter, away from just
generic things about having a job and being occupied to higher level things of self-realization
in the larger sense of not just our own individual self-realization,
but where we're going as a society, as a collective species.
And we have collectively a very difficult assignment,
which is who do we want to be as humans?
What do we want humans to be?
And one of the reasons why I'm really keen
on artificial intelligence is that we're going to use AIs to help us answer this question of what do we want humans to be?
Because we're going to be giving them lots of things that we thought we were about and realizing they can do that.
And I think this larger identity problem of not just who am I as an individual, but who am I as a human, is where we'll spend more time.
And as we go on, I think this kind of identity crisis, not just on an individual level, but as a collective level, becomes more and more of the conversation.
When Queen Elizabeth II has a birthday, it is usually celebrated with a parade in front of Buckingham
Palace. Also, not one, not two, but three military salutes. A 21-gun salute in Windsor Great Park,
a 41-gun salute in Hyde Park, and a 62-gun salute at the Tower of London. Kevin Kelly,
meanwhile, has come up with a more modest means of marking his birthday.
These lists of advice and ideas that, if you think about it, may be a bit more useful than
all that wasted gunpowder.
If you want to read the 103 things that worked for Kevin Kelly and see if some of them might
work for you, they are on his website, kk.org, under a section he calls the Technium.
Considering his longtime attachment to new technologies, I also wanted to ask him about
the blockchain and cryptocurrencies, because next week we are putting out the first episode
in a three-part series about the blockchain and crypto.
My little glib answer these days is, I'll talk about crypto, but
while we're talking about it, we're not allowed to talk about money. And those are very short
conversations. And the reason is that the amount of money flowing through crypto is so huge,
and so many of its early uses are finance-related, that it just distorts and obliterates other
aspects of it.
Well, that's because most people who are able to talk about crypto at the moment are involved
in the parts that have to do with making money or speculating.
But there are those people who keep promising that this is an underlying technology.
This is a utility that will change the way we conduct a lot of our activities. So can you say anything more about that possibility?
So I think the underlying technology of blockchain is the true innovation. I think it's going to be
a long while before it transforms things, because a lot of what we're trying to use it right now for can be done in other ways.
There's about four or five different, I would say, tensions in crypto, contradictions that are working against each other.
An example of that would be in the digital world.
One of the things we know about is that there's something called increasing returns, which means that the more people that join a network, the more valuable that network gets.
And so that's why people become evangelists for the fax machine or for other things, because
the more people join onto the network, the more valuable that becomes for them.
But in that network effect, most of the value comes at the end.
You don't want to be the first person to buy the fax machine
because it's completely useless because there's nobody to fax to.
But if you're like the billionth person to buy a fax machine,
you're getting it for $25 and you're getting a multi-trillion dollar network value
because everybody's on it.
Crypto is trying to reverse that.
It's going the opposite direction.
It's benefiting the early adopters first.
The thing we know about decentralized systems is how incredibly inefficient they are.
I mean, evolution is incredibly inefficient. It's a crazy way to do anything where you have billions of eggs in order to one survives.
That's inefficient.
And so when we want to have a decentralized system and that adaptability,
there's a cost, and that cost is inefficiency. And the question is going to be, are we going
to be willing to pay that cost of inefficiency? And are there going to be other things in between
that may not be as inefficient? And I think when it does arrive, it's going to be like plumbing.
It's like, yes, really good idea. Yes, very boring.
Who wants to talk about it? I'm glad it's there. Keep it going. But it's not going to be sexy.
If we had talked to Kevin Kelly before starting our blockchain series, maybe
we would have reconsidered or maybe we would have made
a series about plumbing instead, but it's too late now. So next time on the show, we will try
to wade through the hype and figure out what can blockchain do for you? Because this is such a new
space, we have to actually figure out what we want. It's kind of like the birth of the internet.
Nobody knows exactly what it's going to be. There's some chance that we're in the midst of a massive speculative bubble.
We'll speak with economists, regulators, creators, and promoters. Oh, I think it's going to dominate
80, 90 percent. Wait, 80, 90 percent of what? Of the total economy. Come on, seriously? Oh yeah.
We'll hear from artists.
This is the first time ever that artists have shared in a secondary market.
And the power of that isn't just about the money.
And a few realists, too.
I think that's usually a good sounding answer, but it's the wrong answer.
Everything you always want to know about blockchain, crypto and NFTs,
but didn't know who to ask,
or maybe just didn't care, we will try to make you care. That's next time on the show.
Until then, take care of yourself, and if you can, someone else too.
Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Renbud Radio. This episode was produced by
Alina Kullman. Our staff also includes Neil Carruth, Gabriel Roth,
Greg Rippin, Zach Lipinski, Ryan Kelly, Julie Canfor,
Rebecca Lee Douglas, Morgan Levy, Eleanor Osborne,
Jasmine Klinger, Emma Terrell, Lyric Bowditch,
and Jacob Clemente.
We had help this week from Jeremy Johnston.
Our theme song is Mr. Fortune by the Hitchhikers.
All the other music was composed by Luis Guerra.
You can get the entire archive of Freakonomics Radio on any podcast app, along with the other shows in
the Freakonomics Radio network. To learn more or to get our newsletter, go to Freakonomics.com.
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