Freakonomics Radio - 87. The Season of Death

Episode Date: August 8, 2012

We know that summertime brings far too many fatal accidents. But you may be surprised if you dig into the numbers.

From APM, American Public Media, and WNYC, this is Freakonomics Radio on Marketplace. Here's the host of Marketplace, Ty Risdahl. Time now for a little bit of Freakonomics Radio, that moment in the broadcast every couple of weeks where we talk to Stephen Dubner, the co-author of the books and the blog of the same name. It is the hidden side of everything. Dubner, it is so good to talk to Stephen Dubner, the co-author of the books and the blog of the same name. It is The Hidden Side of Everything. Dubner, it is so good to talk to you again, man. And to you, Kai. I missed you, too. How's your summer been? Good. Busy. Busy, but good.

Good. Tis, of course, the season for outdoor activity, some of which, I'm here to tell you, can have a very significant downside. What? Like sunburn and mosquito? But what? No, I'm actually talking about death. So I hate to be a killjoy in the middle of summer. Okay.

But I thought it might be worthwhile to look at the relative danger of some of America's favorite summertime activities. All right. So let's start with motorcycling. Here's Randa Samaha from the National Crash Analysis Center. Okay. Motorcyclists are very vulnerable road users. For every 100 million vehicle mile travel, there are over 24 riders killed.

So when I was 20-something years old, I told my grandfather that I wanted to buy a motorcycle, and he said, I would sooner kill you with my bare hands. He was a doctor. Good advice, okay. I don't know if you own a boat, Kai, but the boating statistics are a little bit frightening. Here's Mike Barron with the U.S. Coast Guard.

We're roughly down to about, you know, say 6.2 deaths per every 100,000 boats. And swimming, something most of us do. I do a lot of that in the summer. Here's Julie Gilchrist with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Overall, the drowning rate in the United States for all ages is 1.29 per 100,000. And I couldn't find any stats on golfing. That's what I spend my free time. I think that's relatively safe. But skydiving, here's Nancy Corrine from the U.S. Parachute Association.

There's been an average of maybe 22 fatalities a year, which is about seven per one million skydives. Okay, wait. So seven per million versus all those others, which is not so bad, right? So, you know, the motorcycle death rate is based on the number of miles traveled. Swimming deaths, meanwhile, are counted on a per capita basis. Skydiving deaths based on the number of jumps. And of course, a lot fewer people go skydiving every year than go swimming. Help me out here, though, for economics, Obi-Wan. What is the message here? Are we? Oh, I know what it is. We're scared of

the wrong thing. That is exactly right. Human beings are generally quite bad at assessing risk. We tend to get worried about the big anomalous events, shark attacks, for instance, which on average kill fewer. Yeah, you know why? Because they're scary. Well, they are scary and they get a lot of news coverage. And then when they get a lot of news coverage, we're convinced that they're a lot more common than they are. Five people on average worldwide die from unprovoked shark attacks. Meanwhile, in the U.S. alone, in a given year, 4,500 people die from motorcycle accidents and another 4,000 or so from drowning.

Yeah, but here's the thing. I could step off the curb in front of Marketplace Global headquarters here this afternoon on my way to get a cup of coffee. God forbid, but yes, you could. And I could be hit by a bus. I mean, what am I supposed to do? Well, you're going to do what you want to do. Yes, I am. And I'm not saying you should be overly scared of things you shouldn't be. But there is a lot to learn at looking at these numbers, just taking a step back and doing it.

One piece of data that really jumps out at you is this, the ability of alcohol to help make bad things happen. OK, so listen to this. About 30 percent of all motorcyclists who died were legally drunk. The Coast Guard tells us that alcohol was the primary contributing factor in about 16% of the boating fatalities. What about skydiving? I mean, people don't drink and skydive, do they? You know, there are no hard and fast stats on it. We did ask, here's Nancy Corrine again from the Parachute Association.

For the most part, skydivers aren't really interested in doing that kind of thing. Skydiving is fun enough. You're having a good time. And, you know, why would you add that extra element of risk? You know, Kai, this raises an interesting point. If an activity is prima facie dangerous, maybe it scares people away from adding a layer of danger by drinking, you know? Yeah, but hang on a minute, right? Because motorcycling is prima facie, although I always thought it was prima facie, but it's prima facie dangerous, but people drink and motorcycle all the time.

Well, to some people it is, and to some people plainly it's not. I mean, I tend to agree with you, especially riding bike without a helmet. You know, helmets are estimated to prevent about 40% of crash deaths among motorcyclists. And yet there are a lot of bikers out there who would much prefer to ride a bike than to not and to ride a bike without a helmet.

Look, if safety is your number one concern this summer, I'm not saying it should be. But if it is, I've got the ultimate activity for you and everybody out there. All right. What's up? Hit me with it. You stay inside. You listen to your radio. Stephen Dubner. Taking the coward's way out. That's right. Hey, man, I'm all right with that.

Hey, podcast listeners. Coming up on next week's podcast, the second half of our two-part episode, Freakonomics Goes to College. The central question, is a college degree really worth all that money and effort? And I asked Steve Levitt about the magic that happens in the college classroom. Obviously, I teach my students. I teach them very specific things. But I know that when I talk to them years later, they don't remember anything that I taught them. I mean, I can ask them the most simple questions about the material we covered, and they have no recollection whatsoever

of the typical students. That's next time on Freakonomics Radio.