Frequent Miler on the Air - Predicting the 2020 future

Episode Date: January 4, 2020

Greg and Nick confess their miles & points sins and review their predictions for 2020. Example: Will Chase raise the Sapphire Reserve annual fee this year? Greg says no, but Nick says yes. Here's why...

Welcome to Frequent Miler On The Air with Greg and Nick. This week... Can I say, welcome to... Uh-oh! 2020. For those listening and not viewing, Nick just put a ridiculous hat on his head, which longtime readers who have seen you in pictures probably will not be surprised about you putting a ridiculous hat on your head.

This one's a little different anyway it's it's a happy new year hat it is and and it and it looks good on top of your headphones i bet it does it's it's a great luck i won't keep it there the entire episode uh because we just got back from from uh from right? This is our... It is. You did. We did. We did. This is the time travel episode where we just got back from the future, and we're going

to tell you all about the year 2020. That's what this whole episode's about, right, Nick? Right. I mean, we know what's going to happen this year, and so Greg and I are going to tell you what's going to happen, or at least we're going to see if we both saw the same future because we traveled to the future and back separately so that's right we took separate uh vehicles you took the tardis and i don't have a name for mine. But anyway, let's get this thing rolling. So what happened in 2020?

Or what is it that... No, no, no, no. You know we have to start every episode. I know it's been a year, so you don't remember this. It has, it has. But we have to start every episode with your favorite feature. That is my favorite. Drum roll.

Which is reader feedback time. And guess what? I Drum roll. Which is reader feedback time. And guess what? I just made us think about reader feedback time, and we're not going to do reader feedback time this week. The reason is this. Instead of reader feedback time, it's Greg's confession time. You are going to hear my confession and hopefully absolve my miles and points sins. Are you ready? I'll see what I can do. No promises. Well, I need this.

It depends on how badly you've sinned this year, Greg. My point soul is hurting. So, yeah, here's what I did. I had the choice. I was booking an award. Right. And I had the choice of spending 47,000 Singapore miles or 60,000 Alaska miles. All right.

I'm following so far. And I'm hoping that what you're going to tell me is that you, for some reason, decided to spend the Singapore miles. I wish I could say that, but no, I spent the Alaska miles. What? So, yeah, I know the ultimate sense. So, I not only spent more miles, but I spent a much more valuable currency. Right. I don't even know what you booked, but for readers who need to put that in context, 50,000 Alaska miles is enough to fly one way in business class on Cathay Pacific from the continental US to basically anywhere in Asia with a stopover in Hong Kong as long as you want. So you spent $60,000 instead of $47,000 Singapore miles.

I know. It was bad. So here's what – there were two things going on here. One is my bad memory. I had looked up the Singapore award prices earlier, and I thought I remembered that they were $55,000, not $47,000. But when I looked before this episode, I was like, wow, it's only $47,000. What was I thinking? So $55,000 versus $60,000 didn't seem like a big difference.

But the other reason, but you would still say, well, you should use your Singapore miles before your Alaska miles, right? Probably. Probably. But here's what it came down to. I don't actually have any Singapore miles at the moment. There aren't any transfer bonuses at the moment.

So it was really a question of, do I use Alaska miles or transferable points? And that changes things a little bit, right? Right, right. So, now, you know, now which of those is more valuable is part of the question. And that's not an easy question to answer because alaska miles there's some things that they're so incredibly valuable for and you can't transfer to alaska miles for most from any of the one-to-one transferable points currencies so it's it's a little bit hard to think about giving those up on the other hand obviously transferable points currencies I can use to book almost any award flight as opposed to just the ones that Alaska's partnered with. So the last factor is that most of my little over 60,000 and my son had a set of a little over 60,000 that were sitting there not getting used because I usually like to book everybody together in one award booking.

And so they were just sitting there languishing. My sons were actually about to expire, so I had to do something to generate activity in that account. And I thought, I'd almost rather just empty out these accounts in order to book this award and then kind of forget about those accounts and I have my main account. So what do you think? How bad is it? Am I going to go to the miles and points dark place?

Maybe just purgatory. I don't know. You know, when I look at that, you made a good argument as to why you may want to use up the currency that's locked into one airline over the transferable currencies. Because the transferable currencies give you a greater range of options. However, I still think, especially given the 60 versus 47k difference, I still think, boy, I would have rather used other currencies because you can generate those points. You can regenerate those 47,000 points so easily. When you look at the fact that probably almost all of your membership rewards points and almost all of your Chase Ultimate Rewards points are earned at a rate of more than one per dollar spent, you're probably earning at least 2x and probably 4 and 5x

in many situations. It's very easy to replace those, whereas it's not very easy to replace the Alaska miles. So in that case, because it is so cheap to put those miles together, I would probably say that, yeah, that was a pretty bad sin. But you can fix it. Because obviously, you would have to pay a fee to Alaska in order to cancel. Ordinarily, you'd have to pay a fee to Alaska in order to cancel. Ordinarily, you'd have to pay a fee to Alaska in order to cancel. Now they've gotten rid of the free cancellations far in advance that they used to offer. However, since I know that you're Delta Diamond, I know there's a decent chance you could probably do a status match over to Alaska. Although now that I say that out loud and think of it, you booked it out of multiple accounts. So that won't really do you very much good unless everybody can match over to Alaska. I can do that. I can do that with my wife's account and so i could

fix it for one of the tickets right better than nothing i guess uh it i it'd be harder to do but is it worth it is it worth it and is it worth earning a status match for that i don't yeah i don't know but the funny thing is that possibility is a big reason to i didn't mention this up front but why i originally looked at alaska is i thought i'm gonna book this with alaska because this particular flight i thought there was a chance that i might have to change it and so i thought i know i can do a status match and then i can make free changes and if i you know if i am successful with the status match i can make changes and that that was why i did it and but then i i ended up changing it up by by booking

out of these other accounts so anyway and i have to say that just a story to really you know show people who are listening and watching that there are no perfect right answers and and and even people who are so-called experts at this don't always do make the right decisions about it all right or there isn't always a right decision either yeah yeah it's debatable i do i do feel really bad though about using alaska miles in this case it's like one of the awards where they charge too much and that's rare with alaska and if you feel that badly, then I know you're not at least getting the value of a stopover, or at least I think you're not getting that value. So then, yeah. I even tried to figure out how can I use a stopover here when I don't need one, but I couldn't come up with a good one. Extra painful then.

Just rub that in a little bit. Yeah, thanks a lot. Let's get back to the show. Back to future or back from the future we're back from the future a year ago time travel a year ago right before the year uh changed over to 2020 i published predictions for the year. So let's go over them and see how we did. We each did, actually, me, you, and Stephen, each predicted things. So we'll actually start with yours. You said at least one chain will eliminate resort fees. Now, in my experience over the past year in 2020, that didn't happen.

Although it looks like there are several reports that some of the hotel chains are thinking about it. Is that what you saw when you went into the future too? No, no. I looked at this and I said, okay, wow. Look at what the resorts are feeling now. They're feeling the pinch because finally Expedia is hitting them where it hurts in the wallet by deprioritizing those listings, by essentially now figuring in the cost of resort fees and not allowing hotels that are charging resort fees to just cut their nightly rate and add a resort fee later and end up higher in the search results. So Expedia is punishing hotels that are charging those resort fees. That is hitting them in the wallet. And so somebody decided to cut those out. So that has to

happen, right? Wouldn't it have to? I do think it will happen. I just don't really think it will happen in the next year. And since I just switched from pretending that we came back from the future, let's stop that. Let's go ahead and stop that trade. Yeah. Well, you know, and here's the thing, and Greg makes a good point here in the sense that it might seem unlikely that somebody is going to do it in 2020. But on the flip side, I don't necessarily think it's going to be Marriott that gets rid of resort fees this year or Hyatt that gets rid of resort fees. But I think that there's a decent chance that a smaller chain that wants to both A, get the media exposure for saying that they've gotten rid of the resort fees and b stop getting punished in search results for having the resort fees so i think you're going to have

one of those smaller chains that's perhaps less popular with americans so i don't necessarily think it's going to be a big huge major chain that gets rid of them in 2020 but i i think somebody's going to maybe it'll be windham maybe it'll be a core it'll be something probably a little bit smaller but i think someone's going to do it you know be Wyndham. Maybe it'll be Accor. It'll be something probably a little bit smaller, but I think someone's going to do it. You know what else we might see is one of the big chains picking out a brand to try it out with. That's true. This brand won't have resort fees. And they'll see how it goes. And then if it doesn't go well, whoever decided will get fired and they'll move on.

Well, that would be easier to do, especially with these chains that have like a million brands now. We just saw recently that Hilton's adding another brand. It would be such an easy thing for them to do. Right. Although maybe the hotel owners,

though, would be not happy with that at all. Well, it depends. I mean, if they get more bookings because of it, then they should be happy. I think that there are going to be hotel owners

that see bookings drop by a margin that they don't like. And so that's going to either lead them to want to switch brands or get rid of those resort fees. I know we can all be hopeful for it. Greg thinks it's not going to happen. Maybe he's right. I think I'm right. I hope you're right. I hope so, too. All right. Your next prediction was that American Airlines would become a transfer partner with Citibank. Right. And I'll readily admit this is the weakest of my predictions because this is the one that I feel like has the best chance of not coming true. I feel like it was definitely a fringe prediction.

However, I feel like Citi slashed the travel benefits on their cards. They've got to do something to make up for that. We haven't seen them make any effort to add additional benefits yet. So if they're not going to add additional benefits, they did increase the value of the double cash by making those points transferable to thank you points, but the rewards transferable to thank you points. But I think they either need to add a transfer partner or some additional benefits. They haven't made any transfer partner or some additional benefits. They haven't made any headway on announcing additional benefits. So my guess is it's going to be a transfer partner.

And the cheapest of those for them, I would think, is AA. Though, of course, AA might not be happy with Citi right now after they've shut down so many accounts recently for Citi letting people abuse the heck out of those mailers. So I don't know for sure that AA will be the one, but I feel like that has to be the one they have the best deal negotiated with, right? Yeah, I wish you were right. I hope you're right. I just think that if Citi could have made it work with American, they would have done so two years ago. They already had the relationship with American for years. And when they first introduced transferable points, we all thought, wow,

that's strange that American isn't in there. Then each time they added a new one, we thought, wait a minute, why isn't it American? And it's been a while now. They've had plenty of time. I'm sure they've approached American Airlines numerous times with various proposals. It's either American, this is my thinking about it, either American just doesn't want it to happen, so they're refusing, or they are charging too much for that to make it happen. I think it's got to be one of those two. And so I don't know that there's anything in the environment that will change that. You know, whatever the block is, I don't see anything having happened this year that necessarily makes that different. So again, I really do hope it happens.

It's the only of the big three US airlines, right, that doesn't have a transfer, that you can't transfer from a transferable points currency. Which supports the point you're making that it would seem like the block must be on AA's end, whether it's AA not wanting to or AA wanting too much for their miles one way or another. I suppose that does make sense that that would be the block. I don't know for sure. I've heard varying theories about who is paying for the miles on the city AA cards. I've heard some people saying that American was supplementing that cost in some way. And that's part of the reason they shut down the accounts. I've heard other people saying that Citibank was paying for the miles altogether. So I don't know what the internal dynamics of that is for sure. But I'll be curious to see how that affects Americans' attitude towards this in the future,

whether the fact that they suddenly are selling a lot, many fewer miles, perhaps, if maybe that pushes the envelope a little bit. It'll be tight as to whether or not that's going to happen in 2020, but I'm hopeful. Yeah. I guess another possibility, I wonder if Barclays would protest that kind of thing because they don't have a transferable points currency. They did for a hot minute. Yeah, they did. And they kind of still do, I'm sure.

I guess whoever still has that card still has the ability. Yeah, but obviously they wouldn't want it to happen because it would be a competitive disadvantage to them, I think, potentially. Anyway. Okay, moving on. Your next prediction was that loyalty programs will become more aggressive in targeting gamers. Yeah, let's move on. That's going to happen. Unfortunately, agreed.

Your next prediction, we'll see another credit card offer an entertainment bonus category like city bank does on a few other cards um i said i think that'll happen eventually but i didn't think it would happen in 2020 not not for any particular reason other than it it's like rolling the dice on a on a on a low probability thing i i you know might happen in 2020 but i i don't i don't see uh it as something that people are necessarily rushing rushing into but i i get your your logic about how it's a uh a category that people are interested in and and excited about and they market too well you know and I think I saw it was at the deal mommy who just shared a post on Twitter, maybe today or yesterday, from the Wall Street Journal, an article from the Wall Street Journal

about the big business of people selling tour packages aimed at getting people good Instagram photos. And it seems that there is a large contingent of travelers out there anyway, who are very focused on Instagramming their vacations and kind of impressing their social networks and whatnot. And people are very much into experiences in that way. I feel like millennials particularly are into experiences for better or worse, both because they appreciate experiences and because they want to be able to share them with their social networks. And I think that we're seeing lots of different hotel chains market to that. Surely the most recent offering from Hilton,

they've basically said that they're targeting well-to-do millennials or well-to-do younger professionals. And so I think that there are more and more companies focusing on that group that is after those types of experiences. I feel like the next logical step is for the banks to say, okay, well, let's bonus that just in the same way that dining has become a big bonus category because people are eating out more and more. And travel rewards became bigger and bigger over time as people began traveling more. I think entertainment is the next big category. That that's my so we'll see we'll see we'll see and then amex will offer an awesome new benefit on the platinum cards you disagreed with that you see you were like ah they're gonna offer something but we're probably not gonna agree that it's awesome oh that's right i did i did so so i completely agree that it will happen, that there'll be new benefit, especially in

the business platinum card, because that's where that's the card that got hit the worst, I think. Mm-hmm. If it's a way or whatever it is, the baggage thing, I don't think a lot of us will call that awesome. Depends on how much it is, but perhaps you're correct. Yeah, and there's things like We oh, wow, that's awesome. That's the part I don't think will happen.

You may well be right. amount of value they took away between that WeWork benefit and the GoGo Wi-Fi benefit. It's a fairly significant dollar figure and benefit for small business owners with the card. So I feel like there's certainly an opportunity if they're willing to spend whatever those things cost them. And of course, obviously, they're not paying retail prices for these things, but whatever it was, then I think that there's at least room for a pretty interesting new benefit. And I think that the fact that they've for a pretty interesting new benefit. And I think that the fact that they've been creative on the green card by adding the away travel credit, the lounge buddy credits are obviously making new partnerships. And if those are the partnerships they made for their their cheapest low end, essentially card, I shouldn't say cheapest, it's not a no

annual fee, but their their low end charge card, at any rate, I've got to imagine that they may have other new partnerships in line for the business platinum and or much better credits, I would think, on the card that costs $500 and change a year. So I would imagine that there's going to be something pretty good. Now, you're right. Of course, we may not all agree that it's awesome, but there's certainly room for something to come that's awesome. Sure. Yeah, absolutely. There's room for it. We'll see what happens. And I'm sounding like a broken record, but I hope you're right.

We'll see. You just don't think I am. We'll see. I'm going to say the exact same thing about the next prediction that I hope you're right, but I don't think so. That Capital One will shake things up with its rumored ultra premium card. What do you think is going to happen? You know, I don't have a great prediction as to what it's going to be.

I just feel like Capital One seems like they are laser focused on, maybe laser focused is a bit of an exaggeration. They're quite focused on increasing their footing in this space. I mean, they surprised us all with the ability to transfer those venture rewards and Spark Miles rewards to transfer partners. We didn't see that coming at all. And then they followed it up right away with transfer bonuses. They've been pretty good with the transfer bonuses left and right. I feel like they are certainly working on trying to do things that impress the Miles and points community. So I imagine that that's the next step. It's obviously a profitable space. Other issuers have clearly been enjoying these ultra premium cards. They've been offering them for quite a few years and now increasing the annual fee and decreasing the benefits. But apparently it's been working out OK for them. So I expect Capital One to do something that we don't expect. And so it's hard for me to pick exactly what that's going to be.

But I think that they have definitely been able to surprise us. And I am surprised that they were able to surprise us in terms of adding the transfer partners. You know, I'm surprised that that information didn't get leaked, at least not that I recall. Right. Do you remember that being leaked in rumors ahead of time? Not at all. Yeah. I mean, they kept that under wraps and I think they seem like they're responsive enough and interested in learning about what they can do better. So I think that they're going to do something out of left field on this. I made a couple of predictions in the post, but

realistically, I think it's hard to say. I bet that they're going to do something we don't expect. That'll be fun. I hope that's hard to say. I bet that they're going to do something we don't expect. That'll be fun. I hope that's true. Hopefully it'll be a good bonus category. Or I would love to see one-to-one transfers. That would be great. If you made the points on that card one-to-one transferable. If you get that card, you get one-to-one.

Right. That would be special. That would be special. That would. And you can combine Capital One Miles, of course, remember, with your other Capital One Miles cards or with other cardholders. So I think if they just did that, just made the points transferable one-to-one, if you have the $500 a year card or of them are really into the miles and points game, the hobby. And so there's actually an okay chance that at least one of them is listening to this. If you are, hey, it's good to see you again. But also, yeah, think about what Nick just said.

If we could get one-to-one transfers as a benefit of holding that card, that would be a huge benefit. And it would make Capital One Miles an ecosystem that is, I think, suddenly comparable with Ultimate Rewards and Membership Rewards and City Thank You Points fully. I think right now they're kind of like the little brother currency that is potentially okay, but usually not amazing. I think if they did that, they would be a full-on competitor.

Agree. Agree. All right, cool. So that's going to happen. I changed my mind. I just want it to happen. So it's going to happen. So you're going to get on board. Yes. All right. So you also said that Chase or Citi will have a $150 to $250 card. What's that all about? Well, I mean, you look at the fact that Amex has been introducing these cards in kind of that mid-range for a while now. The gold card seems like it was wildly popular. So I think that that, to me,

says, you know, why aren't these other issuers doing that? So obviously, Chase has added the Southwest cards in the middle and the business cards somewhere in between that ultra premium and the traditional, like, well, just under $100 annual fee type of a card. So I just think it makes sense from a competitive standpoint that they would have those other things, just like Samsung has a million Galaxy phones. There's the Galaxy S10 that you see advertised all the time, but there's like a Galaxy A50 and a Galaxy J this and a Galaxy whatever the other thing is for people who are only willing to spend $100 on a phone or $200 or $300.

They want to capture every market segment. So it seems logical to me that Chase and Citi would see, hey, there's some money to be made here in this segment that we're not serving the people who aren't willing necessarily to pay $500 for an annual fee, but are willing to pay more than $100 for an annual fee. So I think it just seems like a space where they ought to be competitive. And so I think it logically makes sense that they would. Now, all that said, I think that someone in the comments had made a point that just escaped my mind. And oh, the in the comments of that post, somebody

made the point that I think perhaps would have been a better prediction. So I'm going to say that I still think that this is possible. Better prediction that I think would be interesting is one of them offering rewards on grocery spend. Yeah. Yeah. I remember seeing that comment and I agree totally. That would be very interesting. It's surprising how little that's done. Why does everyone let Amex get the monopoly on that, basically? I don't know. Maybe because they know it's such a loss leader. Yeah, perhaps. But I think that would have been a better prediction for me to have had that either chase or city comes out with something that bonuses grocery store spend but i think that mid-range card it just you know

if your competitors are coming out with a product wouldn't you want to compete you don't think they're going to why not because they're slow to do things well right but you know it's not like this isn't like a you know just an overnight sensation kind of a thing annex has been doing this for quite a while with cards in that middle range the gold card was the one that i think has been very popular over the last year but then the next year you don't so if you don't think it'll happen in the next year how long do you think it'll take let's look at how long it sometimes takes for these things depending on the bank but the sapphire reserve came out what three years ago i think or four like that maybe three or four yeah i don't know and we're we're still talking about capital one trying to come out with a competitor to that now some other banks have clearly i i think a lot

of times they're sort of not all the way through but but you know like um but us bank for example came out with a very direct competitor and i think i think it's a really strong competitor to it um they're missing the transferable points unfortunately that's that's the one thing holding that card back but um yeah so i i just i think these things take a long time and but but i do think that the um the other thing i think is that chase particularly has staked out a very specific ground for their ultimate rewards card they have they have a set of no fee cards they have a set of preferred 95fee cards. They have a set of preferred $95 cards. And then they have the reserve, the $450 card.

What I'm surprised about is that they haven't yet come out with a business reserve card that's at that $450 point. Makes sense. That's what I'd expect to see before that. Citi, they seem so random in everything they do. I don't think that guessing based on logic will get you to what they're likely to do. That may be true. Now, you made me think as we were talking about that. So, did the Prestige card come out before or after the Sapphire Reserve? I can't recall.

Well, there was a version of the prestige card for a long time before, I believe. I think that's been out for a really long time, but it used to be completely different. It had, yeah. I mean, yeah. It had these flight point things that were, I can't even remember how it worked. It was really weird how it worked um and then they changed that up and then a few years later they changed it up again i can't remember when they made the biggest change whether that was before or after the

sapphire reserve i think that was before actually it might have been i can't recall because i was going to say i mean it seems to me like the altitude reserve came out since uh capital one started and i feel like there were a couple of times we said, is this the Sapphire Reserve killer? Is this the Sapphire Reserve killer? And so I think that there have been a number of instances of other banks introducing higher end premium cards in these couple of years. So, you know, you look at Altitude Reserve, Bank of America, Premium Rewards with Platinum Honors. You got the other one that just popped into my mind and then went back out of it there's a fourth card but i'm losing it

right at the moment but i think it's at least possible but all right i don't disagree that it's possible we'll see we'll see all right next this oh i think we're moving on to steven's predictions now uh-huh we're all done with next all done we found out none of them are gonna happen all i can say is your 2019 predictions were a little suspect they were really really bad previous years have been really good but yeah the most recent set didn't work out so much. Not so good. And I had to stretch and erase the, you know, I had to erase the word Delta and stick in United in order to get just one right. But who would have ever guessed that United

would take the lead on anything, right? Nobody, nobody. You can't blame me for missing that one. Not too much. Anyway, Stephen says that Capital One is going to add Virgin Atlantic as a travel partner, as a transfer partner. Yeah, that's going to happen. You know, I would say, yeah, I tend to agree with your logic, except they haven't yet. Why hasn't it happened yet?

Then are they going to? I don't know. I'm less confident than you are i feel like it logically makes sense but it would have logically made sense to happen already so absolutely i'm a little you're using you're using logic i i used earlier in this conversation against me i am but it's absolutely true why if it didn't already happen there was probably a reason it didn't happen why should we think anything has changed? Whatever that reason was.

Good point. Yeah. Good point. That's my thought. So, sorry, Steven. You lost your first one there. Good luck. And Steven next says, Amex membership rewards will transfer to JetBlue on a one-one basis.

And I said, yeah, I think that will happen as well. I agree. I agree. All right. We'll move on um free breakfast for ihg spire elite members and spire spire elite hard to contain that one go ahead spire elite for those who don't know is is ihg's newish top top tier status they used to used to be platinum was top tier then they added spire elite and just like the old platinum it does not guarantee you much of anything no no and i know that that steven enjoys a fine drink now and then i think he must have had one too many before he was writing that prediction because I don't know where that came from.

But it had to have been from something that was really, really strong and powerful that he was drinking that night because there's no way, no way. You know, I would bet with Steven Pepper that Iaffle House gift card, right? For one of us to get a free breakfast, at least that they will not absolutely not add breakfast for anybody at IHG hotels. So it's just not going to happen. IHG has absolutely no interest in improving the stay experience. It doesn't seem and you know, that's fine. For a lot of people, it doesn't matter that a lot of people have that perspective that they can go to Waffle House and get a great breakfast. So I intend to do it on Stephen's time. So we just lost Nick.

I don't know what happened there, but I guess he was still. Oh, you were still talking. So probably on the podcast. That'll be OK. Hopefully it's up video wise. So sorry about that. That's OK. Are you talking about waffles? Yeah. What I said for people watching the video that missed that little bit is just that at least

Steven or I, one of us is going to get a free breakfast. I think it's going to be me because Steven's going to owe me that Waffle House gift card if he takes me up on the bet. Why are you going so low on the bet? $20? Oh, I would go harder. I just feel bad taking more of Stephen Pepper's money than Matt's. Got it, got it. 20 bucks, that's the limit there. I won't take too many breakfasts.

One breakfast is all I'll take from him. All right. Well, Stephen's next guess is that Citi is going to allow credit card referrals. As you know, they've done it a little bit in a targeted way. So they've targeted some people to allow getting points for referring people, but it's not a public thing. So he says

it will be. I don't have strong views about this, but just sort of guess that it's unlikely to happen in 2020. But what do you think? I agree. They haven't done it yet. And so I guess it goes back to that same argument I had on the Capital One thing. I just don't see them seeing much value in it. Truthfully, I'm not sure that the referral programs make all that much sense. But at the same time, I guess the issuers that use them seem to like them city doesn't seem to i don't see it really adding very much for them i think they seem to think that their mailers and things like that are working out perhaps not so well but uh but i think that i don't see it being extra likely it'd be great love to see it i don't see any reason why

yeah they're gonna okay well we'll see. All right. Next one from Steven. Chase and or Amex to increase referral limits. So it's about the same thing, referring friends. And I thought he had an interesting argument here. Currently, they limit you to $550 worth of referrals, basically, if you convert points as pennies, usually. So they limit you to 55,000 points. Or 50 and change the space. He was guessing that that was driven by tax concerns. Because when you give someone $600 dollars or more you're supposed to

fill out a 1099 and all that kind of stuff now they're doing that anyway and he's saying well they're doing that anyway the the cap doesn't matter so let's raise it up uh interesting logic um i don't think it'll happen me either why not well i think that they and their lawyers want to control who is using refer who who is getting paid basically by getting people to sign up? And so they have select blogs and other publishers that are affiliates that get paid. And there's not that many that are direct affiliates with Chase and Amex, much less with Chase. And they try to monitor everything that they publish to make sure it's correct so that when people are signing up for an offer, they're actually getting what they expected to get. Right. Makes sense. I think if as they increase the limits, it starts making it so that anyone can sort of as their own little business, start referring friends and everything.

And I just don't think they want it to be a business. I think they want it for what it's called, the referring friends. They really want it just to keep in that kind of neighborhood. So that's why I don't think it'll happen. Agreed. Yeah, I don't think it'll happen. I definitely don't think it'll happen. There's no need for them to increase it.

The average customer that they're targeting with those referral bonuses doesn't know probably more than five people they're going to refer a year. So I don't think that, you know, 10 or whatever it is that the cap is at somewhere between five and 10, depending on which card. I don't think the average person knows more people than that, that they're likely to refer in a year. So there's no realistic reason why most people would want any more than that. And absolutely what Greg is saying, not only do I think they want to control who it is that they have sort of affiliate relationships with? I think it also makes it difficult from the bank's end in terms of their business relationships with their affiliates. If anybody can set up a blog and refer an unlimited number of people to the cards, then you would think that their affiliate blogs would be unhappy with that, I guess.

Not necessarily that we would be, but I imagine that some would. That's a really good point. All sales channels might be an issue, right? Right. Right. So the flight attendants walking down the aisle trying to give you cards and the person next to you says, hey, no, sign up through my friend thing. Right. And they lose control then from a compliance standpoint. And that just doesn't make sense to me. So I think absolutely not going to happen. I'd love to see it, but I don't think it are going to remove restaurant access from priority pass um chase i think it's just their sapphire reserve and their ritz card right that have priority pass so you know i i assume he he had in mind the the sapphire reserve version of priority pass but um that which it's worth it's worth mentioning that the Sapphire Reserve and Ritz have slightly different

versions of Priority Pass because Sapphire Reserve allows two guests, right? And Ritz allows unlimited guests. Right. Which wouldn't surprise me at all if that changes next year. If that changes, right. Yeah. But it hasn't yet. But Stephen thinks it'll be much worse than that, that it'll

actually be where we can no longer use them at restaurants the same way that amex changed theirs i don't i don't think that chase is going to pull a a major benefit like that away from the priority pass that they offer up i think that priority i'm sorry the sapphire reserve is already weak on benefits compared to the amex platinum cards and so i don't think they'd want to give up one of their few uh talking points that you know hey here's why our card's better what do you think right yeah i agree i think it's really a confusing benefit when you start picking and choosing where people can use them. So I'm kind of surprised that Amex did that. I don't know what the cost savings, obviously, it must have been a significant enough cost savings to them. But it seems to me like it just makes the benefit confusing and then cheapens the value of the benefit to the cardholders. It's just more likely to increase frustration when people go to use it and can't or get hit with a bill they didn't expect. So, yeah, I don't see Chase making the change because I think that Chase is at least more customer friendly from that standpoint that I think that they'll have the foresight to realize

that that would be a bad idea from a customer service standpoint. And you're totally right. They are lagging in benefits compared to the Platinum cards, though not necessarily in comparison to the Prestige card. cards, though not necessarily in comparison to the prestige card. So, they're somewhere in between, I guess, right now. But I don't think it'll go away from the chase cards. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I don't think so. Yeah. Okay. Next, Marriott will offer poor promotions. Do we even need to talk about that one? I mean, you're just throwing softballs here. He's playing tee ball here. He's just teeing them up and trying to knock them out of the park here.

No, definitely. That was an easy one, Steven Pepper. It's actually notable because about 10 years ago and before that, Marriott regularly offered great promotions every quarter. They would offer stay two, get one free. You'd get a free cert just for having two stays. Starwood used to have similarly good promotions, too. I ran into those a couple of times also. Yeah, but we haven't seen any good ones out of Marriott for years now, and so I don't see any reason for that to change, so I agree with Stephen.

Nah, yeah, not going to happen. All right, now we get to my predictions. I predicted that Chase will not increase the annual fee of the Sapphire Reserve. So that's only notable because Doctor of Credit had posted that there were rumors that it was going to go up. And I'm looking at it and saying, again, I think that they don't want to be followers following what Amex has been doing with the $550 annual fees. I think they want to do something to preserve their leadership in the ultra-premium space.

And part of that will be to not repel customers with a much higher annual fee. What's your take? I think it's wishful thinking. I think you're off on this one. I think for sure they're going to increase it. I think that they are likely to get people to continue to pay it. I think that the things I've read about their retention numbers in terms of the percentage of customers that they've been able to maintain paying that $450 annual fee is impressive, especially considering the fact that that card was marketed so heavily that tons of the people who applied were probably relatively new to travel rewards. Back when that card debuted with its 100,000 point bonus, it was really easy

for people to be drawn in by that, I think. So the fact that they've been able to retain such high numbers of people at the $450 level tells me the same as any kind of a business. If you got people, lots of people willing to pay your current price, then maybe it's time to increase the price. And since everyone else is increasing their prices, I think Chase is going to follow along with that because they can. I think that they'll hold on to plenty of cardholders still at $550. I don't necessarily think it'll be a good card to hold at $550, but I think it will be easy enough to convince people that they're getting a $300 travel credit and priority pass is worth something and maybe they can toss some other

bone in there in terms of one additional benefit. And they'll probably get people to think of it in such a way that it isn't expensive enough to get rid of yet. So I think you're wrong. I think it will increase. All right. A year from now, I'm going to replay part of that clip showing you how you're saying they're definitely going to raise it. And I'm going to say, wait, they didn't. I hope you're right. I mean, let's flip, turn the tables here and I'll say, I hope you're right, Greg, but it's my turn to say that. Okay. You're not going to say it about the next bullet. My next prediction is that Amex will increase the Hilton Aspire annual fee to $5.50. So I'm being very specific here. I'm saying exactly how much they're going to raise it to. And I think you're spot on. I think you're spot on. I can't argue against that. It just

makes sense. I'm surprised that they haven't already done it. All right. Moving on. What about the Bonvoy card? So I also predicted, but with less certainty, that they would increase the Bonvoy Brilliant cards annual fee to $5.50. Now, the reason I'm a little less certain there is just I don't feel like the value of that card to the cardholder is as strong, or at least the potential value is as strong as the Aspire. So I think it's a little harder case to make that that card's worth 550. I certainly wouldn't, probably wouldn't want to keep it at 550. But, you know, there might be lots of people that would. What do you think? I bet they raise it to 550 and add a benefit. I think that Amex is pretty good about adding

benefits to cards. I think that they enjoy packaging those various benefits. And we see a variety of benefits from the gold card with the Grubhub or seamless food delivery type benefit. Then you see on the personal platinum, the Uber credits and the Saks Fifth Ave credits and on the business platinum, the Dell credits. So they've obviously packaged a number of different types of credits

to try to fit different types of cardholders. I think it's likely they add something, whether it's an airline incidental credit or some sort of a dining related-ish benefit. I think that they add something in order to increase the perceived value and up it to $550. All right. I think you're right about that. Absolutely right. Maybe the away travel credit will end up on this. Oh, God, I hope not. It would be good if they did the airline fee credit the same way as they do the Hilton Aspire. Make those cards roughly equivalent.

Yeah. That would be nice. That would be nice. All right. Next prediction was that Bank of America will offer point transfers to miles from their premium rewards card. So I predicted that in 2019. It didn't happen. I predicted it again this year.

Will it happen? What do you think? I predict that you're going to predict it for 2021 also, because I don't think it's going to happen in 2020. I think we're going to be back here a year from now with the same discussion. I think when you look at Bank of America's interface, it looks like it came from 1986. I don't think that they have a system that I just I feel like their technology seems out of date. And maybe that's just the appearance. And it's the layman in me that doesn't know anything about computer programming. For all I know, they've got it all set up and ready to go for point transfers.

They just don't seem to be quite as advanced from an interface standpoint. So I have to think that that probably translates over into their other systems. So I don't think it's a priority for Bank of America. I've never heard rumblings about something transferable coming out of them apart from your predictions. So I don't think it's a priority for Bank of America. I've never heard rumblings about something transferable coming out of them apart from your predictions. So I don't think it's going to happen. Yeah. I think you're probably right about that.

But I like to predict it because I really want it to happen. I think it would go from an interesting program for cash back to a really amazing program for people who are willing to invest with Merrill Edge because of their bonuses that they give you. But again, that could just be wishful thinking. I think it would be a great marketing ploy for them. And they already have some co-brand relationships. So I think they could leverage the co-brand relationships that they have. So I think that there is a decent shot there. However, on the flip side, Barclays tried it and it didn't work out.

Now, that was partly because of the way that they structured the card that was the centerpiece of that. But I think that it's not as easy as it seems. I'm surprised that Capital One jumped into the game in transferable points. I think it would be difficult and I doubt it's going to happen in 2020. I think it'll be rumored for quite a while before it happens. So I think 2021, maybe. All right. All right. So last one, Hilton will not introduce a significant new elite perk. There have been rumors about them. You made a really interesting argument about this. Yeah. So you think that they won't, and that is a different prediction than you predicted last year.

It is. It is. I think last year was their opportunity. They decided not to. And I think they had good reason for deciding not to. I think they realized that what they've been doing is working for them. And what they are doing, what they've been doing for years, is selling elite status very cheaply. Just sign up for a card. You want gold status, sign up for the cheap card. You want diamond status, you sign up for the expensive card. And we'll give you a great free breakfast card and we'll give you great free breakfast and we'll give you a couple other things. And because you're now have that status, you're going to be moving your business to Hilton away from Marriott or whoever,

because you know, you're going to be getting the free breakfast and whatnot. And they don't need to give you more stuff for that elite status. That's what I think. I think that's a great argument, and I think it's logical. It makes sense. They had a chance and didn't do it. I think that that does seem like a pretty convincing argument. On the flip side, I'm going to say that I think you're wrong because I think what Hilton is going to find is that they were able to sell the status really

cheaply, but it isn't always going. I think my guess is that it has not driven enough business for them. I look at my own stay patterns and I like having Hilton Diamond status. So I know that I'll have lounge access and breakfast when I stay at their properties and a chance at an upgrade. But I only stayed at Hilton four or five nights this year. I had no incentive to choose Hilton over something else when I was also going to have breakfast or lounge access at one of those other places. So, now maybe I sit in. Yeah, but most people don't have multiple elite statuses, right? I actually remember years ago, they gave me hilton gold status because of my i was gonna say delta status i think it was northwest status at the time and they

and i i am sure that i did pick hilton over others because like i was like i'm gold i'm gonna go you know get perks and right now maybe you're right this is way before i was into the game you know yeah so yeah when i look back actually a couple of years ago before i had elite statuses a few years back before i had elite statuses with hyatt or with marriott i guess i did always go to the hilton app first before i looked elsewhere and they have so many different brands that typically there's an option for whatever price point you want. And I do love the fact that I don't have to consult a chart. I recently made a mistake with a courtyard and picking the points instead of the breakfast when I checked into a courtyard because despite having done 75 nights last year, 60 of them anyway, actually in hotels, I hadn't stayed enough at courtyard. Confession time is already over.

We already did that segment. You'll have to keep that for another time. Right, right. But it's hard with Marianne. All right, let's move on. We're done with predictions. That's what's going to happen in 2020 and a lot of what's not going to happen in 2020. I think that brings us to question and answer time.

What do we have? And I think that it segues really well because, well, you know what? Let me not even set it up quite that far. So Danielle sent in a question this week and she asked, have we heard any rumblings? And I'm paraphrasing here. Have we heard any rumblings about what Barclays is going to do to replace the Arrival Plus? Because they, of course, pulled that card a while back. There haven't been new applications for that card for quite some time. So she wanted to know if we've

heard anything about Barclays replacing the Arrival Plus, and then if we could do a rundown of other cards that would make a decent replacement for the Arrival Plus if you are an Arrival Plus fan. So two-part question for you, Greg. A, do you think Barclays is going to come out with some sort of a replacement? They had the Arrival, what was it, Premier, the higher-end card, and the Arrival Plus. They've gotten rid of both of them now. Do you think they're going to replace it?

So that's question number one. And then question number two, what is a decent replacement in the wallet for the Arrival Plus? Yeah. I have not heard any rumblings, first of all, one way or another. So, I don't know anything. I would just be guessing. I would guess that they're not going to replace it. I don't know why they took it away. I think they must have decided it wasn't a good product for them. And so, I don't know why they would bring away. I think they must have decided it wasn't a good product for them. And so I don't know why they would bring it back in some other form. So I'll say my guess is

no. As far as what are good alternatives, the best one, in my opinion, if you can move some of your retirement funds to Merrill Edge and open a Bank of America checking account, then either the Bank of America travel rewards card, which is fee-free, or the Bank of America premium rewards card, which is $95 a year but comes with $100 airline incidental credit, either of those will get you at least 2.62% for all spend. Now, the travel rewards, that's 2.62 as applied to erasing travel expenses just like the arrival does. So, instead of two points per dollar with arrival, you're essentially getting 2.62. Or again, if you have the premium rewards, uh,

premium, yeah, premium rewards card from bank of America, uh, you could actually just take it out as cash without offsetting it as a statement credit. Um, and if you have both, you can move the travel rewards points to the premium rewards if you want to take it out as cash. So that's my, that's my top pick. If you, if you have a lot of money sitting around and can park $100K or more of investments with Merrill Edge. For cards that don't require any investments, I think probably we're looking at the Capital One Venture Rewards card. That's another 2X everywhere. I mean, it's very, very similar to the arrival. It just doesn't have that 5% bonus when you redeem for travel

that the arrival had where you got a 5% rebate. It doesn't have that. On the other hand, what it does have is it lets you redeem for much lower quantities. So the arrival required $100 or more for each travel charge that you redeem for. Capital One requires $25? To be honest with you, I'm not even sure. Yeah.

I don't know if there is a minimum. I don't even know if there is a minimum. I'm not sure that there is one. I don't think I've ever read about a minimum. There might not be. But it's certainly, if there is a minimum, it's way, way less than 100. Right. Right.

Well, you know, I'm kind of surprised that Barclays hasn't instituted something else because they had the Arrival Plus, but they also had an Arrival, right? That was like a no-fee version that wasn't a very good version. But I think it was very similar to the Venture One rewards, if I remember correctly. It's going back a few years now since they did that. But I think they did, right? So they had two cards in that ecosystem and got rid of both of them. I'm kind of surprised that they haven't brought up something new like that that appeals from a broader perspective because obviously they tried the transferable points and that didn't work

out. I feel like most of the Barclays cards are pretty niche at this point because they're all, apart from the American Airlines card, I suppose that's pretty mainstream since lots and lots of people fly American Airlines. But the other Barclays cards are fairly niche cards. I mean, you have to be a person who stays at Wyndham or knows how to use Lufthansa miles and more points or something like that. I feel like they need something that's a bit more mainstream. So I'm surprised that they haven't either put out something similar to the Arrival Plus or just like a 2% cash back card, something that could compete. So I feel like I wouldn't be surprised to see something come just because I feel like they must have given up a huge

piece of market share with that. But like you said, obviously, they decided it wasn't profitable for them. I'm going to argue that while the Venture card I think is a better card than the Arrival Plus ever was, because now you also have the ability to transfer to partners on top of the fact that you are getting similar value out of it. I think the best choice if you are an Arrival Plus type of a person is the Citi Double Cash. So I was going to mention that next, but go ahead. Because the Citi Double Cash, of course, has no annual fee, offers 2% back, and I would rather have the cash back than have the awards that erase the travel purchases. And the reason for that is I have other cards in my wallet that offer travel protections, so I would rather be earning cash back and then use one of my credit

cards that has travel protections to actually book my travel and take the cash out of Citi in order to pay for it if that's my aim rather than getting a statement card. It's logically the same thing. It might not feel like you're getting it free, but it's logically the same thing. Logically the same, and you're getting the travel. And you could also, I'm pretty sure you can erase statement charges with the double cash by choosing to take your cash back in that form. Right. And it wouldn't be limited travel purchases.

It could be anything. And as you pointed out, it's not the best card for travel purchases right and neither was the arrival plus for that yeah uh right uh but at least it had no foreign transaction fee which the double cash does so you don't want to use it over internationally that's that's a great point but of course then the other additional advantage of the double cash is that those points are transferable to thank you points and then transferable to Citi's partners. And I think I prefer Citi's partners over Capital One's, at least as long as Capital One maintains their awkward transfer ratios versus Citi's one-to-one transfer ratio with most programs. I think I prefer cities. And when you look at the fact that the double cash has no annual fee, I think that's the best replacement. Venture rewards is a pretty close one. Definitely totally agree with Greg, though, that if you've got 100K to put in Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, if you got 100K you can put on deposit or move retirement funds over your

investments, then I definitely think that the premium rewards or travel rewards or both are the best replacement. They're much better than you would have ever done with the Arrival Plus. So I always thought the Arrival Plus was an odd card, to be honest. I know that there were people who were enthusiastic about it. I was never particularly enthusiastic about that card. I never really saw a ton of benefit beyond the initial bonus on that card because you were never going to be able to really get the full value out of your points with their minimums.

You'd get your 5% back, but you'd really never be able to use that 5% once you've redeemed enough points because you wouldn't be able to meet the minimum. Right. When it first came out, it gave you a 10% rebate. Right.

And it had lower minimums. I think it was like $25 minimum at the time. I think so. Ands i think it was like 25 minimum at the time i think so and so i think it was a i actually thought it was a very solid choice for those who didn't care about miles and points when it first came out and then once they uh reduced the rebate and and raised the minimum i said i stopped recommending it to anybody yeah yeah yeah so i i would love to see it come back in the sense that it's a great opportunity for a welcome bonus potentially. But I don't think that it would be in its previous form. I don't think it would be competitive with the other similar cards on the market at this point.

Yeah. Let me add one more. Discover at Miles first year is they double all the rewards. So it gets one and a half points per dollar. Points can be used to offset travel or can be redeemed as cash as well. And then all of those points are doubled at the end of the first year, so you're essentially getting 3% cash back for all purchases. I know people who sign up for the card every year, so they just keep getting the 3% over and over. So that's an option as well over so that right that's an option as well yeah and that's an excellent option and and perhaps one of the best if you're willing

to do that over and over again also it's worth considering if you're looking to replace an arrival plus that that the discover well what are the discover limitations in terms of making plastic payments there aren't any there it's as open as mastercard yeah and and of course the double cash is a mastercard so you've got lots of options there in terms of making payments and when plastic runs their lower fee-free promotions and you might be able to take advantage of those so those are also some other benefits behind the discover or double cash over the venture rewards perhaps yep all right hey i think we've reached the end of another episode. I think we have. So thank you very much for being here with us. If you are watching this on YouTube or on Facebook, and you'd like to give us a listen instead, if you want to be able to listen

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