Frequent Miler on the Air - Which cards will be couponized next? | Coffee Break Ep51 | 4-1-25

Episode Date: April 1, 2025

There's been a trend where credit card issuers increase annual fees on rewards cards, and attempt to make up for it by adding credits and rebates for somewhat random things (which often require a lot of mental effort and organization to put to use.) Today, we'll speculate how far this trend is going to go... (01:03) - Recent history of couponization (05:51) - Expected refresh of Platinum card Check out the Coffee Break episode 47 where we discussed an expected refresh here, or read more about even more refreshed Platinum card predictions here. (06:43) - Next Airline Card(s) (12:14) - Next Hotel Card(s) (15:20) - Next Consumer Transferable Points Card(s) (17:35) - Next Business Transferable Points Card(s) Visit https://frequentmiler.com/subscribe to get updated on in-depth points and miles content like this, and don’t forget to like and follow us on social media. Music Credit – Beach Walk by Unicorn Heads

Welcome to Coffee Break, where we focus on a single topic related to miles and points. And each Coffee Break is limited to 20 minutes or less for your money back. Today's Coffee Break, which cards will be couponized next? There's been a plague of couponized cards. So what we're talking about is credit cards where what happens is the issuer increases annual fees and to make up for it. What they do is they add these credits for kind of random things that often have nothing to do with the main purpose of the card to try to convince you that getting, you know, eight dollars a month in rideshare credits makes up for an increased annual fee as one example. And so what we're going to do, I'm going to go through a brief history of the couponization of credit cards in America today. And then Nick and I are going to predict what's gonna be couponized next. So going back to July, 2021,

this is when I believe it all started, the Platinum card, the American Express Platinum card, they increased their annual fee to 695, I think it was around 550, something like that before that. And they added all these random coupons. They added a $20 per month digital entertainment credit, $15 per month of Uber credit, except in December where it's more,

$25 per month Equinox. I mean, it just went on and on. So that was kind of that, and it became known as the coupon book. And then not surprisingly, not very long later, the Business Platinum card was similarly refreshed with higher annual fee and some coupons. And then since then,

so about a year after the Business Platinum card, in September of 2022, Marriott Bonvoy Brilliant card was refreshed, but it was light on coupon. It had a little bit of couponization going on, but it was like dining credits. And you know, okay, one thing. They also introduced the Bevy and Bountiful Bonvoy cards, which didn't really have coupons. So the Marriott brand wasn't all in on coupons at that time, September of 2022, July of 2023, Citi Advantage Executive card, that was fully overhauled. And I believe this was the first co-brand

to fully embrace the idea of unrelated coupons. So they added like Grubhub monthly Grubhub credits, Lyft credits. It was something like your third Lyft ride per month or so. I don't remember. And Avis and Budget rental car credits, which seems totally random to me. But that's what we saw in the City Advantage card, executive card, July of 23. A couple months later, the Amex business gold card was refreshed with some coupons. And then the same month in October of 23, the Hilton, Surpass and Aspire cards were

updated. They were pretty light on coupons as well. You know, you're looking at things like Hilton credits, or in the case of Aspire, some airfare credits, which are kind of unrelated, but they had airfare credits of a different type before that. So I don't see that as being really couponized, but then go all the way to February, 2024, Delta, refresh their cards, they were all in.

They had rental car, not rental car, sorry, they had Rezzy credits, they have... Hotel stay credits. Delta stays, right, right. And I'm forgetting, ride share credits. And so they were, I guess, the second co-brand to go all in on coupons. And then in March of 24,

the Hilton business card was refreshed, light on coupons. So Hilton, not into the whole coupon game. Then in July of 24, the Amex Gold card, which was already coupon-ish, was refreshed with more coupons, not surprising there. And then in March of 2025, and this is what led to us having this top of mind, United went like, they doubled down.

Not only went all in, they were like, everything everyone else has done before, let's do that, but worse. Worse. So they added hotel coupons similar to Delta's, but not as good. They added rideshare credits similar to Delta's, but not as good.

They added car rental coupons similar to the AA executive card, but not as good. They have Instacart, you know, so it goes on and on. So that was the March, wow, onslaught. And now we're gonna ask what's next. What's next? I mean, because we have to imagine that this is an epidemic that's gonna spread to other cards.

Issuers seem happy with this and it probably does help them market cards to say, hey, it comes with a million dollars worth of credits every year without in the headline saying that you have to use little by little on these qualifying purchases and may not come back as cash or yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, you know, they don't wanna tell you, well, the card costs $2,000 a year or whatever the annual fee is without also saying, but you gave $5,000 a year back, you know, by spending $12 every day at a dollar store or something. Right. Right. Exactly.

But you know, I think that we both have talked already previously about how we expect that the platinum card will get refreshed sometime soon. So on episode 47 or coffee break episode 47, we were predicting the refreshed platinum card. We haven't yet seen it yet come out in real life, but then Greg actually published a do-over post, re-predicting sort of what the refreshed platinum card will look like with even better predictions I think. Well yeah, because in our Coffee Break episode, I had forgotten to predict Rezzy credits,

which just seemed like such an obvious no-brainer that they'll do that, the same as they have with the Amix Gold card. So I redid it and adjusted some of the predictions there, but check out that post if you're interested in seeing the specific predictions. But now it's time for us to predict other things. So let's do this by category. So what do you think, Nick, the next airline card or cards will be couponized? I think it's almost inevitable. I would bet like almost everything

on the Southwest cards getting couponized in the not distant future. I think that makes a lot of sense because they're gonna need people to still want the cards after they completely torpedo the Experience of flying with Southwest and and also they have already devalued the points I think they got to do something and they have so many cards that they have the opportunity to do exactly what United Has done with the United cards and not that I think that that's a good thing or a positive development necessarily, but I think that they're gonna go after that.

I have to imagine they gotta do something to entice people to wanna keep the cards by saying, hey, you've got tons of credits now. The cards are totally refreshed and renewed and enhanced for you. So I see that happening. Whether or not, I think the difficult line for them is going to be deciding, are they going to increase the annual fees on

all of those cards too? Because I don't know if that works. Right. I 100% agree with your prediction. And especially I was going to bring that up that I think this is going to be the rare case, the only case I can think of where cards get couponized without increasing the annual fee. And it's not because they don't want to, but because they're on thin ice right now. Southwest has made so many unfavorable customer changes that their credit card line is probably the one place they can really rely on good revenue and they don't want to lose customers there. So our prediction sounds like both of us is that

Southwest is next but with the addition of coupons without raising annual fees which is a good thing because then if you can use the coupons all the better. Yeah and I can imagine them making a splash with some coupons that people like long-term Southwest loyalists like at least in the beginning hopefully. Hopefully we'll see. Any other predictions on airline cards? Is that just, that's it? Is your next? I think some of the other American Airlines cards

are likely, but probably not this year. So I'm predicting that, because Citi is taking over the Barclays American Airlines relationship. I would think that either, well, maybe end of year or maybe January, February of 2026, we'll see some more couponization. We'll see some refreshed Advantage cards coming out,

I think. And then we'll see something then. I think you're right that we'll see some refreshed airline cards coming out. I'm not convinced that they're going to be couponized because city hasn't made much of an effort in this realm just with the really expensive Executive card and city doesn't seem to care much about what anybody else is doing most of the time So I don't know. I'm not I don't feel as convinced although you may well be right I think one that so this isn't a specific hotel card

I was gonna kind of save this for later because because this is my off-the-wall prediction so I'll bump right in the middle here with my off-the-wall prediction and that's that I think Cardless has to do something in this realm. Cardless issues a bunch of foreign airline credit cards that are programs that want to get more U.S. members and probably want more engagement out of those members. And right now the cards are mostly kind of, I mean, you know, there are some that might be a good fit for you depending on the situation. I think that tying some incentives to use those cards regularly would go a long way to helping Cardless increase their customer base, or at least I think they would think

it would. Now, that's not to say it's going to be appealing for all of us that don't want to deal with a million new coupon credits, but I think that that's something that they could probably sell pretty easily to the foreign airline programs, particularly coupons on brand, I think would be an easy, easy sell. And then if they can build some relationships with companies like Lyft seems pretty hungry to partner up and, and, you know, become front and center, probably because they, I assume they don't have the majority

of the market share on the U.S. And we've seen Avis and Budget kind of make a splash lately. And that's something that I've wondered if that's really pushed more by Avis and Budget. You know, we saw in the past, Hertz had a partnership with Chase where some United cards had some Hertz benefits. And, and Capital One, of course, with the Venture X

has Hertz president circle, and then it was going to go away and then they negotiated to keep it but not much noise out of Hertz in a while and I used to get great targeted Capital One shopping offers for Hertz like 30 percent pretty regularly. I haven't seen one of those in a long time but I keep getting Avis and Budget targeted offers from Capital One shopping so it seems to me like maybe Avis and Budget are pushing there, so I mean, Cardless has some doors they could knock on. Yeah, that's really interesting.

I like that prediction. Do I think it's likely? I don't know. It makes sense, but I'm going to briefly defend my AA pick, which is I think Nick is totally right that Citi doesn't care what other people do, but American Airlines, I think, is totally right that Citi doesn't care what other people do, but American Airlines I think apparently does. And I think the co-brand is more often driving these things. And the reason I say that is because of Hilton, because Hilton chose not to do it despite the fact that Amex has

been all in on the thing. And of course Hilton cards or Amex cards. So the fact that Hilton didn't do it and AA has already shown their interest in doing it with the executive card, I think we will see it on the city side. Good justification. All right, what's up next? What about hotel cards though?

Hotel cards, I think that Marriott is likely because Chase and Amex both have expressed an interest, obviously, in couponification here. They both have a system built for it. One of the reasons why I don't think we'll see Capital One jump into this realm is because they don't have a robust system of card linked offers. And I know Cardless doesn't either. I just predicted that.

But I think that part of what makes this easy is that chase and amex probably have pretty robust systems to identify Qualifying transactions and I don't know whether that's easy to build or not But anyway, so the fact that both of them issue maria cards and both of them are into this and they have the technology To do it. I think it's likely and man I would like to see it on the brilliant card I'm like almost everything else. This is one where I feel like the value is really questionable on the Brilliant card, to be honest. I mean, if you value Marriott Platinum status, okay, I'd like to see some coupons on that one because I don't love the dining credit as it is. I'd like to see something and they can't possibly increase the annual fee. So Marriott cards. Right. Yeah, you know, I'm struggling with this one because

the Brilliant card, absolutely. I think that's a really good candidate. I think some of the other cards are harder because there has to be a negotiation between Chase and Amex and Marriott to make things happen at that like 250. So the cards that are crazy not to be couponized are those $250, I can't even remember what they're called, Bevy and something. Yeah, Boundary Fall, Boundary Fall. Because they're like terrible cards

they're more expensive than better cards that are cheaper. And so, you know, those cards like are just crying for like couponize them, but don't raise the annual fee. Then at the lower end, the cards that are like 95 or 125, that kind of range, there's not much avenue to increase the fee because of those stupid bevy and whatever the other card is, right? Right, right.

And so I don't think anything is gonna happen below the Brilliant card, probably. Like I think that should at that bevy level, but I don't think it will because of the extra negotiation that has to happen because they have to... You don't think they'll just all agree to raise the annual fee to 350 and couponify it? They might. They might. But I just think that the extra negotiation that's needed to keep everybody in step is going to push things back. The one that I think most needs this to happen is Hyatt.

Hyatt's card has been sitting there, like kind of boring. Collecting dust. And Hyatt's been on a downswing with customer changes. And so I would love to see something, but every time I've predicted something happening with Hyatt, I don't know, I've been let down. So I'm gonna go back to, I think the Brilliant card is what we'll see next.

I agree, Hyatt cards could use this. It would be a huge improvement. I don't think it'll happen, but we can hope. We can hope and dream. All right, what about transferable currencies? The next consumer transferable points card that's going to couponify. What do you think, Craig? Yeah, so, you know, I think the ones that are reasonably likely, you've had the Chase Sapphire preferred and reserved, you've got the

Amex green card, you've got the Citi thank you cards, and you have the Capital One Venture and Venture X. I don't see Capital One doing this. Nick mentioned that before. Citi, they already refreshed their Strata Premier card by adding the name Strata to it, was basically all they did. So they didn't couponize that. The green card, the Amex green card has been, that needs some changes, I think.

It's kind of a, I mean, it's a fine card, but it's kind of boring. I think that's more likely to happen than the Sapphire cards, but I could go either way on that prediction. So news out today, the Sapphire reserve today as we record this, so this week, that Sapphire reserve and JP Morgan Reserve card holders are now getting a $10 monthly Lyft credit.

So that's already kind of starting. And then there's other benefits on the other cards that are not a monthly coupon, but at any rate, so that's already added a little piece of couponification. I think, yeah, there's a chance that we'll see further of that with Chase, a chance. I don't know, I'm not yeah, there's a chance that we'll see further of that with Chase, a chance. I don't know. I'm not totally convinced, but a chance. I think the MX Green card is a good prediction, but I'm going to say they'll relaunch an everyday card of some

sort and maybe like an everyday, everyday preferred and couponify the preferred at least. And yeah, yeah, every day or something like that that I think the MX green right now is the intro card to membership rewards and I think it's hard to have a $150 card as your like intro level card so then if you're gonna increase the fee and add coupons it just doesn't seem it seems like it's a hard ecosystem then to get newcomers into who aren't you know looking for a really expensive card right although I could see them not raising annual fee and adding coupons to try to spruce up how attractive or not attractive the card is.

Could be. Things may be. We'll see. Depending on who you are. We'll see. How about business cards? The next business transferable points card to add coupons. What will it be?

All right. I've been betting on this one for a long time. And I'm still going to triple down on this one for a long time and I'm still I'm still gonna It's gotta come true this time. I'm gonna triple down on this one. The business green card. I mean this card hasn't been refreshed since like 1992 thereabouts. I mean I actually have no idea when it was last Introduced or updated, but but I cannot remember it changing ever and It's just a useless card garbage. Yeah

It's yeah The only purpose is to have a downgrade path from the business gold or business platinum And so yeah, I mean that one has to be the next one, right? Yeah I mean you would think you would think it has to be and I wouldn't be surprised if they increase because the annual fee on That one I think it's still $95. I wouldn't be surprised to see that go to at least 150 and add some coupons. But yeah, they have to do something. There's no reason to get that card except I guess if you can't get another card because those cards were traditionally more I don't know, they were perhaps easier to get approved for the what they now call pay over time cards and used to call charge cards. So that's the only only spot it it really fills I think. So yeah, I agree with you. That's the next one. All right. There you have it.

That's our that's the lineup of couponized cards coming soon. Don't forget if you've enjoyed this and you'd like to get in our email list, you want to go to frequentmiler.com slash subscribe to join our email list. Follow us on all the various social media and check out our frequent Mylar on the air episodes dropping every Friday.