Front Burner - A Liberal stronghold falls. Is Trudeau next?

Episode Date: June 26, 2024

The last time a Conservative won a federal vote in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s, it was 1988. The Soviet Union was still together. Brian Mulroney was Prime Minister. The territory of Nunavut wouldn’t be created for more than a decade.But on Monday, in a by-election in the riding, the Conservatives took the Liberal stronghold riding back for the first time in over thirty years. Does this spell electoral doom for the Liberals? Where does the party go from here? And despite his insistence that he’ll stay on, can Justin Trudeau really remain the party leader? John Paul Tasker is a senior reporter with CBC’s parliamentary bureau.For transcripts of this series, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Allie Janes, in for Jamie Poisson. The last time a conservative won a federal vote in the riding of Toronto St. Paul's, the Berlin Wall was still standing.

The Gulf War and the Tiananmen Square Massacre hadn't even happened yet. It was so long ago that it was a year the Edmonton Oilers actually won the Stanley Cup. I'm so sorry, Edmonton. And on Monday night this week, as the Oilers lost in Game 7, results were coming in from a by-election in St. Paul's. It looked like the Liberals were going to pull out a win as they had for the last three decades. That is, until about 4 a.m., when the last batches of results changed everything. Conservative Don Stewart has won the longtime Liberal stronghold. This is a stunning result. Could it get much worse for the Liberals? This is perhaps one of the worst results that they could have had right now because they're going into the summer. Look, this is one

by-election in one riding. Maybe that doesn't sound like such a big deal. But actually, in the world of Canadian politics that's been looking to this vote to gauge the Liberals' standing, this is an earthquake. So does this law spell electoral doom for the Liberals? Where do they go from here? And despite his insistence that he'll stay on, can Justin Trudeau really remain the party leader? J.P. Tasker is a senior reporter with

our parliamentary bureau. He was in Toronto St. Paul's ahead of the by-election, and he stayed up all night in Ottawa on Monday night to watch all the results roll in. JP, firstly, I know you are running on fumes. You have, we're talking Tuesday afternoon. You literally have not slept since yesterday. So thank you so much for being here. We're so thrilled to have you. Of course.

Thanks for having me. So we're going to get into the details, but I first just want to go back to this moment in the middle of the night, Monday night, when you found out that the riot night. And then the last batch of votes around 430 a.m., it switched and it was decisive. Don Stewart really opened up a healthy lead. And then it was all over. I mean, I was in the writing. I heard the tremendous anger and frustration from voters in Toronto, St. Paul's and the frustration with the prime minister personally. So I knew this result was a definite possibility. But to see a ruby red liberal seat flip to the conservatives, it was really a shocking result any way you slice it. I mean, before yesterday's vote, a conservative candidate hasn't been competitive in this riding since the 1980s. The conservatives haven't won a seat in urban Toronto since 2011. And now a conservative is going to Ottawa to represent this riding on Parliament Hill. It's a major breakthrough for Pierre Polyev and for the party in an urban riding in the country's biggest city. So let's rewind for a second to

this campaign. I mean, because even before you headed out to start talking to voters, we were starting to hear a lot about this riding and how, you know, it wasn't as safe as it used to be. And why was that? Yeah, well, liberal support has cratered nationwide. I mean, we've all seen the polls. They're not doing so well right now, right? Pierre Polyev and the conservatives have 15, 17, 18, 20 point lead nationwide. So at some point, that sort of support for Polyev will trickle down to the riding level. Pollsters were not projecting a conservative win in this riding. But yeah, even if Leslie Church snuck by Don Stewart, the conservative candidate in this race, there was still talk about how this is a problem for the liberals because the

liberals won the seat by nearly 25 points last time. And Leslie Church lost by two points. That's a huge swing. So if that swing translated into other writings is applied in the next election, you're talking about dozens and dozens of liberals losing their seats in the House of Commons in the next vote. You know, by my count, at least 55 MPs had a smaller margin of victory than what Carolyn Bennett had in Toronto St. Paul's in 2021. So we're talking about a bit of a liberal bloodbath, right? And now that, you know,

the conservatives have actually won, it's even worse. Like the writing is on the wall for a large number of liberal MPs who just barely won last time, you know, and they're looking around now saying, my goodness, if we lose in Toronto St. Paul's, what does that mean for me in X writing where I only won by two, three, four or five points in some of those 905 seats that were competitive last time? So let's get into the conversations that you had in this riding ahead of the by-election. The Liberal candidate, as you mentioned, was Leslie Church. I know this community. It's where I studied law, began my career and started my family. And now I want to be your member of Parliament.

Can you tell me a bit about who she is and what she told you that she was hearing from voters as she was knocking on doors? Yeah, Leslie Church is a lawyer and a former Parliament Hill staffer. She worked for Chrystia Freeland, the deputy prime minister, and Anita Ahnd, the Treasury Board president. She worked for her during COVID, so she was very intimately involved in all the procurement of the COVID vaccines and all the other PPE that we need to bring into the country. So she's kind of been in the trenches, for sure.

She's a top staffer, someone certainly in the liberal inner circle, in Trudeau's inner circle. And she went back to Toronto last fall to try and win this thing. She won the nomination and she fought hard to try and take it. But she was telling us at the doors even before yesterday's election result that there was a lot of Trudeau fatigue. You know, she heard a desire for change from a lot of people. And she was trying to tell voters, yes, you may want change, but you don't want the alternative. You're cranky with the liberals, but you don't want Pierre Paul. Yeah, you don't want a right winger. You want to stay with what you know, the liberal party, a government that's delivering, you know, new social programs, farmer care and dental care and housing plan for the first time in a government that's delivering, you know, new social programs, farmer care and dental care and a housing plan for the first time in a generation that might actually restore affordability. So she was trying really hard to fight back against that really potent Trudeau fatigue and animus, because it's not just fatigue in many instances,

it's just visceral, the reaction that voters have for the prime minister at this stage. And so she did kind of concede it's been an uphill battle and it was a bit of a struggle. The fact that we've been through a really tough time. We've survived the first Trump administration. We've been through a pandemic, you know, that has really created a volatile economy around the world for the last few years. People feel that cost of living and they are. They're frustrated. They're cranky. But she thought she might be able to pull it off because there are a lot of people in that riding and in Toronto more generally that are still uncomfortable with Pierre Polyev. Yeah, they're not so much sold on the prime minister anymore, but they're also kind of reluctant to go for Polyev as well. He's certainly not

uber popular in an urban riding like this with a lot of wealthy and white-collar workers. That's not necessarily his demographic. And although times have been difficult, when they look at what's on offer and when they look at the alternatives, voters are wise. And so I'm not going to. But ultimately, enough people did go for him. Right. Well, you followed Church and her husband out on the campaign trail a bit. And what were the voters actually saying to them? Like, you mean you witnessed this yourself? Yeah, people are angry. Frankly, they're pissed. You know, the cost of living crisis, inflation, home prices, the government's handling of the Israel-Gaza war, surging immigration levels. That was a big one. A lot of voters brought that up

with me as well. Those are kind of the sore spots. But also, like I said, frustration with the prime minister. A lot of people, frustration with the prime minister. A lot of people, this was a common refrain. A lot of people saying, look, I'm a liberal. I just can't vote for Trudeau this time around. I think it's probably time for a change away from the liberals to the conservatives. So always been a swing voter, but this time going to be going for the conservatives. Eight years ago when he came into office, I was a firm supporter of his.

And I'm not sure anymore. I'm undecided. Like I said, it's a fraught time, difficult decisions, and I just think Trudeau needs to go. Speaking for myself, I think it's time for a change at the top of the Liberal Party. Mr. Trudeau will be quaking in his boots

very soon because it's just time. And there was a powerful moment actually outside of a transit station in the middle of the riding. Leslie Church was there with her husband and as you say you know approaching voters and one gentleman said check Leslie out um great candidate. Oh I know she's a great candidate she's the she's the best of the bunch. Yeah. Justin Trudeau. I'm sure I'm not the first person that has told you that. And the message was powerful because it's like, yeah, I might consider voting liberal, but man, we got to get rid of that Trudeau. He's just not for me anymore.

And that kind of solidified it for me. I really came away from the writing with my eyes opened to the possibility that this could go to the Conservatives and with maybe much more of a clear sense of just how frustrated Canadians are with the Prime Minister after nearly nine years in office. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. through Angel Investment and Industry Connections. That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples.

I'm wondering, you know, because I know you talk to a lot of people who had voted liberal in the past and who were saying that they weren't going to do that here. Like what kind of message do you think they were trying to send? Yeah, I mean, the liberal brand is not dead. It's certainly not dead. There are still I mean, we know Leslie Church almost won. Right. It wasn't exactly a landslide for the conservatives. There are still a large number of liberal voters in this riding. I don't want to downplay that at all. And it has been liberal for 30 years. But people, like I say, frustrated with the prime minister and want to send a message to him because they knew that even if this goes conservative, which it did, it's not going to bring down the government. Right. It's just one seat. It's just a by-election. It's not actually going to change who is in charge. But they can send a very clear message that they're frustrated with the direction of the country, how the country is faring right now. This is something I also heard a lot. Trudeau's got to go. I'm a liberal. I'm going to vote liberal next time. But I really want to see Trudeau go. I want to see a leadership election. We want to see someone else come in. And we're hopeful that

maybe if we do turf the liberal candidate in this race, that maybe party HQ will wake up. Maybe the prime minister's office will wake up and say, you know what, maybe it's time to let somebody else step in. I mean, speaking of Don Stewart, the conservative candidate, I know he didn't agree to an interview with you, but I don't think I'm saying anything radical to say this is not a household name. I'm Don Stewart, your conservative party candidate in Toronto St. Paul's. We've got an election in one week on June 24th. So get out and vote and let's bring it home. Did you get much of a sense that, you know, people were that you were talking to in the writing were enthusiastic about him,

about voting for the Conservative Party? Or, you know, were most of them kind of in the camp of people that you were just talking about who were that this was a protest vote against Trudeau for them? Yeah, like I was in the writing for three days. were just talking about who were, that this was a protest vote against Trudeau for them. Yeah. Like I was in the riding for three days. We went to three different locations. We spoke to a couple dozen voters on and off camera. I don't think a single one knew Don Stewart's name. I don't think anyone unprompted could tell us who the conservative candidate was.

He's an unknown, you know, few people have ever heard of him. He's an associate of Pierre Polyev's top campaign advisor, Jenny Byrne, who calls a lot of shots at the Conservative Party headquarters. And that may be why he got the nomination in that riding. This wasn't about Don Stewart. This was about people flocking to the anti-Trudeau candidate, pure and simple. It didn't really matter who the Conservative candidate was at all, frankly. That's what this election was all about. It truly was a referendum on the prime minister. I mean, it's clear that both parties recognized that this was a high stakes by-election, right? This was not a normal vote. I mean, they put in a lot of resources, they flew in their big guns. So who did we see flying in from the liberals and conservatives to help campaign?

There were more than a dozen liberal cabinet ministers that cycled through Toronto St. Paul's over the last number of weeks. Chrystia Freeland, who is in the riding just to the south, practically moved into the riding. I have been out campaigning, knocking on doors a lot in St. Paul's. She was there almost every weekend stumping for Leslie Church, her former staffer. Leslie is working her heart out and the whole team is there with her. And, you know, honestly, I lost count of how many liberal backbench MPs cycled through there. There were a lot of those two.

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Anthony Housefather, Judy Skro, Talib Nur-Mohamed from B.C. I mean, it was a cross-country effort. Everyone was going through that ride and going out knocking doors, canvassing voters, trying to stump for Leslie Church, trying to get her over the line. So I'm delighted to be here today with my good friend Sean Fraser, and we are talking to people about Canada's housing plan. And in the end, it wasn't enough. They certainly threw everything they had at this by-election.

You can't say they didn't try. They certainly did, but it wasn't enough. Okay, so let's get into what this truly stunning loss means. So Trudeau has been fighting back calls, you know, arguably for some time to step down. And when confronted with his bad polling on Power and Politics last week, he brushed it aside and said, I think, first of all, Canadians are not in a decision mode right now. How could these results change that? Well, there was a decision last night, wasn't there? I mean, some voters were in decision mode over the last couple of days and they made it pretty clear where they stand. Definitely decision mode. There were real ballots counted last night until

the very early morning hours, as I can attest to. You know, it's a sign that the Liberal Party support has cratered, even in strongholds like this one. I mean, supposedly safe Liberal seats aren't necessarily safe at all at this point. the prime minister's future. And while he said he's not going anywhere, he said he will lead the party into the next general election. He said that repeatedly, as you said, you know, he's been under fire for a long time now. This is not a new development. He said, I will be there in 2025 to take on Pierre Polyev. But I think last night's result does change the game a bit because it's going to lead to some anxiety in caucus and it's going to bring out inevitably some challengers to his leadership. You know, I don't expect liberal MPs to stay It's going to lead to some anxiety in caucus, and it's going to bring out, inevitably, some challengers to his leadership. You know, I don't expect liberal MPs to stay quiet after a result like this, after a truly

shocking result. They can't just roll over. I think there has to be some push from the inside for some sort of change, even if it's not dumping the prime minister and dumping Trudeau as the leader. There will be some sort of demonstrable change. I think there has to be. You can't just lose a seat you've held since the early 90s and carry on as if nothing's changed, as if there's nothing to pursue. I mean, this is such a wake up call. Obviously, a lot of the people that you talk to in the writing frame this as a referendum on Trudeau's leadership.

They, as you said, they delivered this incredible loss. But for the people who wanted to vote for the liberals but felt that they couldn't, you know, the kind of people that you were talking about, do you think Trudeau's doing a disservice by sticking around? Potentially. Potentially. I mean, I was kind of shocked by the number of people who said, you know, look, I'm not a conservative, but I'm still going to go for Don Stewart, the conservative candidate, because a lot of people in this writing are saying to me, I want climate action. I don't want big cuts to government. I support gay rights and abortion. I'm not at all socially conservative, but I just can't vote for Trudeau anymore. That's what I heard. people are not necessarily sold on Pierre Polyev, at least in writings like this. We know maybe if we go to rural Saskatchewan or somewhere else where, you know, it's going to be a cakewalk for Polyev. But in some of these really close competitive writings where this could be the difference between, you know, a respectable showing and a super majority government for the conservatives and Polyev, you know, people haven't come around to him just yet. So I think

there's still an opening. It might the window might be closing, but I think there's still an opening potentially for some other liberal leader to step in and maybe woo back some of these people who have really soured on the prime minister. You know, sources recently told our colleagues at Radio Canada that Trudeau's former right-hand man, Jerry Butts, is now giving advice to Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor and someone often mentioned as a potential future leader. I mean, are you getting any signs that we're going to see actual leadership rivals openly stepping up in the party? It's possible. But, you know, all these potential leadership candidates are deferential to the prime minister. You know, if there's a surge in caucus discontent, if there's a public movement to oust Trudeau, we may see some people emerge to challenge the prime minister. But this is really, this is really the Trudeau party.

A number of MPs, liberal MPs, they're not dyed in the wool liberals. They were recruited to the party because of their professional credentials. They were, you know, outstanding citizens. They were leaders in charities and academia and business and what have you. They didn't necessarily come up through the party ranks. They owe their jobs to Trudeau and his team. And so there may be a reluctance to try and purge him, you know, in caucus. There may be people who are upset and anxious and maybe they're rah, rah, rah, we got to get rid of him today. But I wonder if that sentiment fades away when they realize, you know, we've actually won a few times under Trudeau. We owe a lot to him. This is the reason I'm an MP. I'm going to be able to collect a pension next year

for the rest of my life because I've been able to be able to collect a pension next year for the rest of my life because I've been able to win with this guy. And I wonder if that will hold them back from really trying to dump him. I think that that could be a roadblock. I mean, given the kind of sign that we're hearing, like not just in this election, right? I mean, you mentioned the polling several times. Like there are a lot of signs that things are not going their way. Like is there no one in the party that would have, you know, his ear enough? I mean, I'm not saying what the liberals should do or not, but you'd think that there'd be like a move within the party to kind of be like, look, things are not looking good. Like we need to do something here. about their frustration, they don't bring it up at caucus all that often. They don't bring it up behind closed doors. They don't bring it up to Trudeau face to face at those caucus meetings. They're venting to people like us. You know, they're coming to us saying, things aren't good.

I'm feeling down. I'm feeling depressed. It's not looking great. But then they don't raise it in the caucus meetings as often as you might think, you know, so they're not really telling the prime minister like it is. That's why I'm like, I'm hesitant to say there's going to be a leadership election anytime soon, because I don't know what sort of movement there will be to send Trudeau packing. I just, I don't think there will be anything consequential materialized unless there's a huge public upswell, you know, but it's not like he has all these liberal MPs that are nipping at his eels.

It's just not how it goes. So Pierre Polyev is already calling for an election in the wake of these by-election results. And, you know, what is his argument? Well, he's saying Trudeau can't carry on as he is now. He's saying the prime minister's cooked. You know, if you can't win Toronto and St. Paul's, where can you win? And we might as well go to an election and hash it out. But I'll tell you, some conservatives did not want to win this by-election. Behind the scenes, they were telling me, do we really want to win this thing? Because they know that this will prompt all these questions we've been talking about,

whether Trudeau can stay. And it might get to a point where it's untenable for him to stay. And the conservatives absolutely want to run against Justin Trudeau in the next federal election. They don't want to run against Mark Carney. They don't want to run against a more moderate liberal. They want to run against Justin Trudeau because they think, and they're looking at the polls and the data that tells them this, they think they can easily win, that it's going to be a massive conservative majority government. So they were a little reluctant to win it because when you win it, now you've prompted all these questions, but you know what? They couldn't control it because voters were just so motivated to vote against the liberal candidate in this race

and that's it got away from them it got out of control for them because voters had their say and didn't matter what the conservative organizers did or how many people they put on the doors or how many people they got working on the get out the vote campaign effort over the last couple of days it didn't matter because they already made up their mind. They were already going to turf the liberal candidate in this race. And so now they got to deal with that. And what the conservative line is now is let's go to the polls. Let's go to an election because they want to take on Trudeau. They don't want to have a liberal leadership election and somebody else emerge that could be potentially a more potent person with voters. So look, I know nobody likes these questions, but I'm going to ask you anyway, JP, what do you think are the odds that Trudeau makes it through the summer as leader of this party?

Oh, no. I do hate these questions because I do not have a crystal ball. I don't have my tarot cards on me. No, I'm just kidding. I genuinely don't have my tarot cards on me. No, I'm just kidding. I genuinely don't know. Like I said, a number of liberal MPs, a huge number are Trudeau loyalists, first and foremost. They're not necessarily party people, so they may feel like sticking with the devil they know. And Trudeau is really motivated to go toe to toe with Polyev in a general election. He's yearning to get in on that fight. You know, he wants to take it to him in a general election. Polyev wants to take on Trudeau. Trudeau wants to take on Polyev as well. He is just raring to go. So I think that's why he stays. He thinks that Polyev is a threat to the country. He really does believe he's a risk. He does not support anything Polyev supports, basically. So he's worried about the country in a sense. That's why Trudeau wants to stay on and thinks that he's the

best position to keep the party in a good spot. But if there's a strong movement to oust him, that changes everything. If there's enough nervous MPs, if party brass, if some old time liberals who have been skeptical of Trudeau from the beginning, if they start to organize against him, the summer could just get a lot more exciting for political watchers. I can tell you that. All right, JP, speaking of political watchers, we have a very tired one on the line here. Thank you so much. How many hours have you been awake now? Probably 24 at this point, or at least. At least? No, it's like 36 hours, something like that. All right, let's get you off the line, get you to bed. Thank you so much for all your work on this and for talking to us. Thank you so much for having me. All right, that is allbc.ca slash podcasts.