Front Burner - A look back – and ahead – at the war in Ukraine

Episode Date: January 3, 2023

Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed US congress and is now pushing a "no-compromises" path toward ending the war in his country. But neither Ukraine nor Russia have shown any signs of compromise in the ten months of conflict, and as the fighting rages on, peace seems out of reach for now. Today on Front Burner, BBC diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams explores how far apart the Russian and Ukrainian sides are, what their standings are internationally and what that could all mean for a new year of war.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. What you're hearing is part of a video from Ukraine's National Guard. It supposedly shows a soldier blasting a Russian missile out of the skies above Kyiv using a portable air defense launcher.

Ukrainian officials say this was part of a barrage of 69 missiles, where 54 were intercepted. And while those explosions have become a familiar sound over the last 300 days, this barrage is yet another military escalation at a time of diplomatic escalation too. May God forever bless the United States of America. Merry Christmas and happy victorious new year. Slava Opre. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky addressed U.S. Congress last month and is now pushing a, quote,

no compromises path towards ending the war. So today, I want to zoom out and talk about where over 10 months of fighting has brought us. I'm joined once again by BBC diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams, who's going to tell us how far apart the Russian and Ukrainian sides are and what that could mean for a new year of conflict. Hi, Paul, thank you very much for coming back on to FrontBurner. It's good to have you. Very glad to be with you. So let's start with the front lines. In the first months of this war, Russia, of course, quickly secured a wide band of territory in the southeast and pushed in from the north for the capital, Kiev.

But some 300 days later, where are the toughest battles of this war actually being fought today? What we've seen in the last few weeks is a concentration on the east in the area known as the Donbass. There is a ferocious battle going all across the line of conflict, the forward lines in the Donbass, and particularly between Svatov and Kramina. It's a main artery for supplies. I mean, if you look back at the past 300 plus days, forced supplies? I mean, if you look back at the past 300 plus days, really, the Russians were on the front foot for only about a couple of months. And ever since then, it's been a story of one setback after another. We had the withdrawal from around Kiev. We had the lightning Ukrainian

attacks in the summer in the east. And then towards the end of the year, the recapture of the city of Kherson down in the south. You know, a real consistent picture of Ukrainian success and Russian failure. On roads across the Kharkiv region, scenes of destruction and defeat. Russian military vehicles lie attacked and abandoned. Ukrainian forces have claimed a major victory, advancing swiftly across swathes of enemy-held territory, capturing equipment and cutting Russian supply lines. Since the arrival of the winter, which is pretty much in full swing now, the fighting has, not surprisingly, slowed down.

And most of the reports you see suggest that in the areas around Russian-controlled territory in the east, in the Donbass, we see, you know, daily artillery battles and really not much changing on the ground. For the time being, it seems that winter is having its rather predictably chilling effect. Are Russia's tactics and attacks changing here? What we've seen since early October is the phase that we are still in. Concerted attacks from the air using missiles and drones and very, very much targeting Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, in particular its power network. President Zelensky says four and a half million Ukrainians have no power, and he accuses Russia of energy terrorism.

Hundreds of strikes by Iranian-made drones and Russian missiles have damaged at least a third of the country's power plants, nearly all of its major substations and distribution lines. The area around Kiev, the capital, has taken probably some of the worst punishment. But there has been this attempt to kind of break up the power network, to really plunge Ukraine into darkness and cold in an attempt to kind of into darkness and cold in an attempt to kind of break the morale of the Ukrainian people. And that is continuing to this day. I think the only change, perhaps, or the only changes are one, the barrages seem slightly less ferocious in terms of the number of projectiles involved.

And crucially, the Ukrainians have got much, much better at shooting the missiles and the drones down. You know, they continue to make their demands of the West for more air defences, and they are getting more air defences, but they are also just getting better and better at intercepting the missiles. So even though these things do cause a great deal of damage, will knock out power to entire cities and areas for hours at a time, the Ukrainians have got pretty smart. And at the moment, I don't see this tactic, this Russian tactic working, if the intention is to break the will of the Ukrainian people, because that's just not happening. Ukrainian people, because that's just not happening. Yeah. I don't know if you saw this video that was circulating of a bunch of people who went out on their balconies on New Year's Eve, even though there were missiles coming, and sung the Ukrainian national anthem. Like, it was pretty incredible, considering how dangerous it seemed.

Like it was pretty incredible considering how dangerous it seemed. Yeah. I mean, you know, there have been moments throughout the war when we have seen these scenes and they are utterly startling. I mean, you remember right at the beginning when the Russians, you know, armored columns were sweeping into towns in the east and, you know, unarmed civilians were out there, you know, hurling abuse and waving the Ukrainian flag and standing in the way. You know, those days seem a long time ago now. But yes, you're right. At each stage, the Ukrainians seem intent on demonstrating that they are not cowed, they are not afraid, but they are also kind of used to this now. And I think it is their way of saying this isn't working. In those early months of the war, journalists and NGOs

started making reports on executions of civilians and sexual violence by Russian forces. There have, of course, been some horrifying reports throughout the last year. Entering this year, what kind of picture do we have now of how civilians have suffered under this war? Well, they've suffered in so many ways, Jamie. I mean, you talk about those horrendous reports, particularly the ones that we heard from the areas around Bucha and other suburbs of Kiev after the Russian withdrawal early on. And those remain some of the most searing images of all. And there have been similar reports

some of the most searing images of all. And there have been similar reports from other places where the Ukrainians have retaken territory. I mean, when they retook Kherson, for example, there were a flurry of reports suggesting that they had unearthed bunkers and cellars where people were being tortured, including in one report, I seem to remember, even young people, children who had been abused. But everywhere the Russians have been, there have been these reports of abuses and suffering. And of course, don't forget, some cities, and one thinks primarily of Mariupol down in the south, which fell very early on, were utterly obliterated. And you know, this Russian tactic of if they really want to take a city,

they will just pummel it. One city in particular has been the site of staggering attacks on civilians. Mariupol, in the southeast of Ukraine, where nearly half a million people once lived, has been devastated by Russian attacks. Thousands upon thousands of civilians were killed in their homes and on the streets as Mariupol was bombed from the air and shelled from the surrounding Russian positions. And that kind of treatment has happened in other smaller towns as well. But Mariupol remains one of the kind of iconic, destructive scenes of this war. What about the refugees? Of course, we saw this exodus from the country. What kind of

challenges are refugees facing across Europe, I guess, as this war drags on? Well, I think, many, many challenges. And that perhaps is where war fatigue, as it's sometimes called, will creep in. So take my country, the UK. We announced a scheme back in the spring. We were criticized at the time for being quite slow to do it. People were invited to welcome Ukrainian families into their homes. But after six months, which was the kind of opening period, you started to hear reports of people getting tired of hosting refugee families and of situations where it hadn't worked for one reason or another. For the most part, people have welcomed Ukrainians into their homes. You still see

around London and indeed around the country, Ukrainian flags flying in people's front windows. The signs of solidarity are still very, very much there. And I think you see that also across Europe, but in some countries, particularly a place like Germany, which, of course, had welcomed in excess of a million refugees from the Middle East and elsewhere in the big, big wave of immigration that we saw five or six years ago. immigration that we saw five or six years ago, there, a certain amount of fatigue and skepticism does creep in, not least, of course, because Germany is one of those countries that's paying quite a heavy economic price, as it tries to wean itself off cheap Russian energy. And so the combination of a kind of economic price being paid, and the need to look after tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees. You know, that is quite a lot to ask of people. And it is not

surprising that you hear people grumbling. Can you tell me a little bit more about how people in countries like Germany are feeling? So, of course, as you said, they're heavily reliant on Russian energy, even for heat. And so has there been an enormous fallout from this? What is the mood like right now in Europe, especially in countries that are so reliant on Russian energy as this conflict keeps going? One of the kind of success stories, in a way, of the past year has been Europe's collective effort to wean itself off Russian oil and gas. The European Union is considering its sixth and toughest round of sanctions yet against Russia, including a total ban on oil imports. The Secretary of State for Business and Energy, Kwasi Kwarteng, he has put this out on social media saying, the UK will phase out the import of Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022.

It hasn't, it's not complete, but it is probably infinitely more successful than anyone might have imagined early on, through successive waves of sanctions and then a very concerted effort by the leadership of the EU to marshal everybody and make sure that people are prepared to do this collectively. And that has been a marked success. But you're right, it comes with a price. You know, energy prices have gone through the roof here in the UK and elsewhere. You know, it's not the same in the United States,

which is energy self-sufficient. And so there is definitely pain associated with this. And of course, that must feature very prominently in the Kremlin's calculations, that at some point, the Kremlin hopes, the West will grow tired and exhausted by this effort to support Ukraine. As long as the United States continues to sort of lead this campaign of support for Ukraine, I think you will see the Europeans, for the time being, you know, falling in line and lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization,

empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people, and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo. 50%.

That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. Speaking of the United States, President Zelensky made his first trip out of Ukraine, known trip, I guess, out of Ukraine since Russia's invasion. first trip out of Ukraine, known trip, I guess, out of Ukraine since Russia's invasion. He spoke to U.S. Congress over, I think it was just before Christmas, right? And he also did a feature interview with David Letterman for Netflix. And talk to me a little bit more about what you think he's doing there. I think the timing of this, just as winter was setting in, was crucial because

Zelensky is, of course, conscious that, frankly, his country would be part of Russia now if the West had not responded the way it did. And the West has to keep responding in that way, as far as Zelensky is concerned, in order for his country to have the slightest chance of winning this war. And so at a time when there were some grumblings, particularly among Republicans, questioning whether they should simply just foot the bill every time the White House asks, and we're talking about billions upon billions of dollars already spent,

it was important for him to come there, to show his face, to speak in English, which was an unusual thing. He doesn't normally do that. To communicate as directly as he possibly could in order to keep that support, that political support, that military support coming. And your support is crucial, not just to stand in such fight, but to get to the turning point to win on the battlefield. We have artillery. Yes. Thank you. We have it. Is it enough? Honestly, not really. And I think, you know, as far as we can make out, he did a pretty good job. Of course, he didn't, you know, he has a tendency to chide. He doesn't just say,

thank you very much. He says, well, thank you. Yes, but we need more. And he's always saying we need more. He said, thank you for the Patriot missiles that the United States finally agreed to provide after months and months of debate. But he said, you know, we still need more. And that's been a characteristic of the Ukrainian leadership throughout this. They're not afraid of making what seem to be almost unreasonable demands, because at the moment they know, or at least their argument is, this isn't just, you know, this is not just Ukraine that we're fighting for. This is the future of the kind of international order. It's the future of Europe. Your money is not charity. It's an investment in the global security and democracy that we handle in the most responsible way.

And I think he knows that the West, generally speaking, still believes, or perhaps believes more strongly than ever, that Vladimir Putin simply cannot be allowed to win this war. That would be catastrophic, not just for Ukraine, but for Europe and the international order in general. Talking about the international world order, we're of course talking about Ukraine and its allies. What about Russia? There have been question marks this whole year of how allied places like China and India are with Russia. And so where has Russia been finding its allies and where does it stand right now? Yeah, you're right. We shouldn't kid ourselves that the world is united in opposition to Vladimir Putin and his war. It's not. And if you look at the global south, as it's often called, you look at South Africa, India, China, they're not inclined to take a

straightforward view of this at all. And, you know, for all sorts of reasons, economic and historical, they kind of see both sides. And of course, you know, in the case of China, you had a leader who met Vladimir Putin literally, you know literally days before the war broke out. They reached this far reaching strategic agreement. As the Winter Olympics got underway in Beijing, President Putin of Russia was the star guest, meeting President Xi Jinping before the official opening. China and Russia announced a new partnership, with China saying it'll back Russia's foreign policy aims and saying it supports Russian demands that NATO halt its expansion.

That is seen as an implicit reference to the situation in Ukraine. And that alliance is still there. And in fact, Vladimir Putin just the other day invited President Xi to Russia for a summit in the spring. We'll wait and see if that actually happens. But I think it is worth noting that for all the kind of rhetoric, you know, and China is inclined to blame the West for this crisis, we've not seen much in the way of actual tangible physical support for Russia's war effort from China. And that must be a source of dismay for Vladimir Putin. And because as the a source of dismay for Vladimir Putin,

because as the war has gone on, he has been looking around everywhere he can for military support. And the only places, frankly, he's been getting it are places like Iran and North Korea, where he's willing to take it, but it may be of limited utility. Obviously, he would love to have a military superpower like China on his side. And it's not really clear that he does. And what about domestically, right? So you mentioned before that the sanctions that the West, the U.S. and Canada included, have been layering on to Russia for the last 10 months. They're targeting oil and energy, oligarchs, banking and manufacturing. oligarchs, banking and manufacturing. And is that having any impact on his grip on power, on his ability to continue waging this war? Well, those are two distinct things. On the

ability to wage war, I think experts would argue, and perhaps Western military officials would argue, yes, we are seeing an effect. So, for example, several months ago, we started seeing Russia using air defence missiles in an offensive ground-to-ground capacity. In other words, missiles that are designed to shoot other missiles or aircraft out of the sky being used to hit targets on the ground. or aircraft out of the sky being used to hit targets on the ground. Now, that was seen as evidence, early evidence, that the Russians were already beginning to run out of the sorts of munitions that you would normally use for that kind of operation. And you do hear Western officials and Ukrainian officials saying that at some point, the Russians are simply going to run out of this kind of equipment. You kind of think, well, yeah, we heard that before, and they still haven't. But at some point, they are going to have to

make some difficult choices. You know, they can't simply empty their supplies, because Russia needs to keep some of its best weaponry back for the possibility of a future conflict with NATO, for example. So they are going to reach a point where it is going to be quite difficult to keep up the intensity of this war. And I think that is something that people are desperately hoping happens sooner rather than later. On the political front, I think most people probably would argue that Putin's grip on power remains pretty absolute. For years, the Western elites have hypocritically assured us of all their peaceful intentions,

including the resolution of the difficult conflict in Donbass. The West lied about peace, but was preparing for aggression. And today they're not ashamed to admit it openly. And they cynically use Ukraine and its people to weaken and divide Russia. We have never allowed anyone to do that. We will not allow anyone to do that. Yes, we have seen the rise of some other actors, the head of the Wagner group, the head of the mercenary group fighting in Ukraine, and the head also of the Chechen fighters who are fighting also in Ukraine. These have become very prominent exponents of the campaign. They've been, in some cases, very critical of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the way it's conducted the campaign. They've been, in some cases, very critical of the Russian Ministry of Defense and

the way it's conducted the war. So you've seen cracks appearing among those who are the most hardline, the people who really want to stick it to Ukraine and do it thoroughly and properly and mercilessly. Those are the people who we hear criticizing the Kremlin, criticizing the way the war is being conducted. But I don't think anyone feels that any of that yet amounts to a serious challenge to Vladimir Putin's authority. It sounds like what you're saying, and correct me if I'm wrong here, is that right now the alternatives, while weak, actually might be worse than Putin? Yes, I think that is a fear. And in fact, you know, there are some people, you know, in the kind of think tank world who are beginning to ask the question, and, you know, this is thinking ahead quite a bit, what do we have to look forward to if and when Russia is defeated?

Because that is, after all, the collective Western desire that Vladimir Putin should be comprehensively defeated in his war aims in Ukraine. What happens if that leads to the collapse of the Putin regime? What kind of future do we have to look forward to in Russia? Are we seeing, as one or two people have suggested, the final death throes of the Soviet Union, a process that began back with the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the events of the early 1990s? Are we actually seeing in the war in Ukraine one final spasm that will ultimately trigger the final collapse of what's left of that project? And if it is going to collapse,

if it does collapse, and if the war in Ukraine is what brings it on, what are we going to see politically in Moscow, but also around the constituent parts of the Russian Federation? It could be incredibly messy, and it could go on for a very long time. Is it also possible that we might see some sort of peace deal in the coming months? I know Zelensky announced this 10-point peace plan. Russia has rejected those terms. But is it possible that some imperfect peace could be reached here and things could just kind of simmer down? could be reached here and things could just kind of simmer down? I don't think anyone is expecting it in the short term. I think there is a feeling generally held that this war has got quite some way to run in terms of Russia's objectives, which still remains the demilitarization and so-called

denazification of Ukraine. In other words, you know, the removal of the Zelensky government, and basically its replacement with some kind of Russian stooge, versus the Ukrainian aims, which are the complete restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty, which means not just a return to the lines that existed on February the 24th last year when this all-out war began, but the lines that existed before Russia annexed Crimea and controlled parts of the Donbass back in 2014 and 2015. That is what Ukraine wants to achieve. That is what Ukraine thinks it can achieve. And I think at some point with this year, we may come to

the point where, you know, we have supported Ukraine so successfully that Ukraine continues to retake territory and we get back close to the lines that existed on February the 24th. And at that point, I think some really, really difficult questions are going to have to be asked of Ukraine by the West. Do you really want to go all out? Do you want everything? Or is this the moment when we can get back to some kind of negotiating table? And if we get to that point, what will Moscow be thinking? Will Moscow be resorting to even worse tactics? Who knows? But it is possible, coming back to your question, that we could see a kind of refreezing of the conflict along the lines that existed, similar to the lines that existed last year. That won't be an ideal solution.

It'll leave an awful lot of Ukrainians still feeling like there's unfinished business and the Kremlin too. But, you know, at some point, exhaustion could kick in and that could become a useful thing because you don't get negotiations unless, frankly, both sides feel that there's no value in continuing to push their case on the battlefield. Paul, thank you so much for this.

It's felt like a really helpful conversation to kind of set the table going into the new year. So thank you so much. It's absolutely my pleasure. Very nice to talk to you again. All right. That is all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening, and we'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.