Front Burner - A vaccine is coming to Canada, but when?

Episode Date: November 30, 2020

As Pfizer and Moderna's vaccine candidates get closer to being approved in countries around the world, many Canadians are wondering when they might be able to get a shot here. Prime Minister Trudeau has said most Canadians could be vaccinated by next September, but the details on when those vaccines may arrive in the country — and how they'll be distributed — remain hazy. The government is also facing questions about whether other countries could be way ahead of Canada. Two parliamentary reporters — CBC's J.P. Tasker and the Globe and Mail's Marieke Walsh — break down everything we know, and don't know, about Canada's vaccine rollout plan.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Jamie Poisson. So lately, there has been some hopeful news on the vaccine front. Reports that vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are looking promising. And on Friday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau declared that the majority of Canadians could actually be vaccinated by September.

I can understand the eagerness with which people want to know, when is this going to be over? When are we going to get the vaccines? What we can say is we are working extremely hard to deliver as quickly and as safely as possible. But while more details are starting to really trickle in here, it's not clear when the first coronavirus vaccines will actually arrive or what the plan is for distributing them. This is all coming amid criticism that other countries could be way ahead of Canada. So today I'm joined by two parliamentary reporters who've been looking closely at this. Marika Walsh with The Globe and Mail and my colleague J.P. Tasker.

We're going to talk about everything we know and everything we don't know about the Canadian vaccine rollout so far. This is Frontburner. Hey, guys. Hey, Jamie. Hi, Jamie. Hi, J.P. It is so nice to have you both on. Thank you so much for being here. And okay, I want to start today by talking about how we actually get these vaccines. And I know that we can get them one of two ways. We can ship them in, or we can make them here. And I want to get to homegrown manufacturing in a minute. But first, let's talk about shipping them in.

Marika, Canada has made deals with seven different vaccine companies, including the two frontrunners, Moderna and Pfizer. Also, there's AstraZeneca, which has hit a bit of a hiccup recently, but also thought to be a frontrunner. And what do we know about what these contracts say in terms of when we'll get the vaccines and how much of it we're going to get? So I think I would say that we don't know a whole lot about the details in the contract. We have the sort of high level numbers of how many total vaccines we are expecting and then how many we have options to buy on top of that. But I think that there are still a lot of questions about, you know, when those numbers will roll out, how that lines up with other countries' requests as well and contracts as

well with those companies. And all of it is very complicated. And there are, as the government keeps saying, many moving parts. But more and more questions are being raised right now because we are seeing more details from other countries in this front. But certainly we are seeing from the opposition that they are saying that there is not enough transparency around the contracts. And so there is this lack of understanding really around the expectations of them. So I want to ask you about the idea that there's so few details. On Sunday, our colleague Rosemary Barton spoke with the chairman of Moderna, and he did say that Canada has ordered 20 million doses with Moderna with the possibility to get

more, and that because we signed up in August, we will be getting at least some of that in the first quarter of next year. Does that assure us that we get a certain number in the first batch? Yes, yes, indeed. And nothing that happens subsequently can affect that. As we get more and more data, we expect those amounts will shift, but not to the detriment of those who have signed up early on. Does that clarify anything for you? I think that it is in a way saying what we have already known.

For the past week, health officials have been trying to reassure Canadians and in a way do some damage control after the PM's comments earlier last week that Canada would be getting vaccines later than the countries that are themselves actually producing the vaccines. The very first vaccines that roll off an assembly line in a given country are likely to be given to citizens of that particular country. But shortly afterwards, they will start honouring and delivering on the contracts that they signed with other countries, including with Canada. That led to some confusion, a lot of surprise, and I think some more heightened anxiety around what exactly to expect in the year ahead.

I think that, you know, we have seen health officials and now Moderna saying Canada is going to get something from this first batch, but something is not a lot of detail when you are wondering how this is going to roll out and when you or grandma or you as a health care worker will get it. And again, part of that is because there is just so much uncertainty around manufacturing scale up and just how quickly things will be approved, just how quickly we will be able to get our logistics in place to even accept a vaccine. So, you know, there is certainty that we will get the vaccine. It's the specifics around the when and the how many, I think, that are raising so many questions. JP, I just want to dig into this idea that other countries could be ahead of us here that Marika just mentioned.

There are opposition MPs that are saying, like, we're at the back of the line. Canada is at the back of the line here. And do we actually know if this is true? So we're not first in line to get a vaccine, but we're also not the last in line for a vaccine. There's been a lot of political rhetoric about that over the last few days, but it's just not true. Canada will start to see some vaccines before other countries in the first few months of 2021. But I mean, it's still quite sobering as a Canadian to read what the U.S. has planned for December.

You know, President Trump's Operation Warp Speed at this point, it's seemingly a resounding success. I mean, this American plan to find a vaccine, to manufacture it in large quantities and get it out into the public is paying off. Literally the day after the Pfizer vaccine is expected to be approved, which is December 10th, the U.S. military is ready to deploy vaccines nationwide. You know, they've had a former four-star general working on logistics for months. He's been in place since May. And he's already cut deals with McKesson, the pharmaceutical distribution giant, FedEx and UPS. They're on board to ship things out literally the day after it gets approval.

And Walgreens and CVS have signed deals with long-term care homes to start vaccinating seniors on day two. We're going to get it down to the states. The states are going to tell us exactly where they want it to be. We can put it in one place in the state or we could put it in 10,000 places in the state. We'll make an initial push once EUA is approved of everything we have on the shelf. And then every week, we're going to maintain a cadence of delivery of vaccine. We know so much about the American plan. We know 20 million Americans will be vaccinated in December if all goes well, 30 million more in every subsequent month. So, you know, officials

in Canada have said, well, we can't really give you too many details because we're still working it out with the provinces and territories. Well, if you want to talk about complicated, you know, officials in Canada have said, well, we can't really give you too many details because we're still working it out with the provinces and territories. Well, if you want to talk about complicated, you know, there are 50 US states, 14 territories, 3000 counties there. They're all part of the vaccination distribution plan. They've already submitted their proposals to the CDC, the Center for Disease Control, which is kind of coordinating all this. So it's not exactly a walk in the park there either. But yet they seem to have everything kind of sorted out. Things are functioning well. And it's not just there, right? It's also in England. England's got a great plan. They've got a thousand clinics that will be set up in communities all across the country. 975 people a week will be vaccinated. So we need to see some

sort of plan because it's just creating so much anxiety at this point to know so few details when we see our allies in other Western countries having such robust distribution plans in place already. Do we know anything about other countries? You know, I take your point about the U.S. and the U.K., but Opposition MP Michelle Rempel is saying... What the minister is saying is that Mexicans will get vaccinated before Canadians. You know, the chairman of Moderna did say quite clearly on Sunday... Canada's not at the back of the line.

You know, Europe only recently signed a deal with Moderna. So it's really hard to figure out where we actually are here in this international queue. Yeah, I mean, the problem is Canada is entirely beholden to Pfizer and Moderna manufacturing plants in the US and abroad. So it's very novel technology. So Canada doesn't have the capacity to make those vaccines. In terms of Mexico, they actually signed a deal with AstraZeneca to develop locally that vaccine in Mexican plants. And Mexico is not the only one. Other Western nations like Germany, France, Italy, and some middle-income countries like Argentina, too, have signed separate side deals with AstraZeneca to make the vaccine domestically.

The federal government here in Canada did not secure those domestic manufacturing rights, so we do not have that option. Marika, tell me more about this idea that the Prime Minister also dropped another bomb. One of the things to remember is Canada no longer has any domestic production capacity for vaccines. You know, I remember just a couple of months ago, at the end of August, he was standing with Industry Minister Navdeep Bains outside this National Research Council facility in Montreal, and he said... We're investing over $126 million to expand the biomanufacturing facility right here. The NRC facility here at Royal Mount is now on track to produce 250,000 vaccine doses per month starting this fall.

And of course, here we are in November, and now he's saying we don't have the capacity to do this. So what happened here? I think that's a really big question that really has not been fully fleshed out yet. It goes back even further, Jamie, to March and April when the government said they were giving $44 million to the National Research Council's Royal Mount facility in Montreal. And that money was to upgrade an already existing facility that would then be able to start producing vaccine. And they said that that facility by November would be able to produce a quarter million vaccine doses per month. And on top of that, when they had this August announcement, they also announced 126

million to build a brand new facility adjacent to that. We expect the facility to be up and running by mid-2021. And so the question now is, so why is nothing being done? Why is nothing being produced right now in Canada? Part of it is, as JP said, that they did not negotiate the licenses to produce the vaccines like the one from AstraZeneca that we do actually have the technology to do the vaccines like the one from AstraZeneca that we do actually have the technology to do if we have the facilities and if we have the license to do it. The other problem is that the NRC has said that they are not able to produce vaccines right now. And they say

that essentially what happened is that there seems to be some complications around the construction and the upgrading of that facility and that it's taking longer to get to the level of sophistication and the regulatory rules and guidelines being followed that's needed to be producing this vaccine. But I think that there is a lot of confusion around why that is, why the expectations game has changed so much from March until August, saying we would be able to do this. And then all of a sudden, once we're in November, saying actually we can't. Right. And I think that's something that we all, I think I speak for all three of us when I say that we all are probably looking for a little bit more clarity on that in the days and weeks to come, hey? Yeah, I think absolutely there will be more

questions about that. I, you know, it's something that the opposition is really focused on as well. And so I think I would expect to see that being pushed again. Part of it has been put to the back burner a little bit because of the stumbling block AstraZeneca itself has had, and that it's suggesting that it looks like it will be at least doing some form of a retrial of its vaccine. But Amir Adaran, for example, has said he's a professor at the University of Ottawa, and he's said that places like India and Australia are already stockpiling the AstraZeneca vaccine and making it in their own countries for the expectation that it will eventually be approved by health regulators. And then they could then really quickly roll it out to a lot more citizens because they

have it stockpiled. And the facility that Canada has in Montreal at the National Research Council is actually perfectly equipped for that vaccine. If we had such a deal, which I've been urging for months, and the prime minister's office knows it, then we could do like the countries I've just named and start making vaccines here, which would undoubtedly mean that we get more vaccine faster. This idea of approval, I just want to touch on briefly. JP, you mentioned that the FDA in the U.S. is set to approve the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines at the beginning

of December. And what do we know about Health Canada's timeline to potentially approve these vaccines as well? Because, you know, of course, we can't administer these vaccines unless they're approved by our own regulator here, right? Yeah, of course. So Health Canada has said it expects to give approvals to Pfizer and Moderna, their products at roughly the same time as the United States. So that is encouraging. Public Services and Procurement Minister Anita Anand, who herself is a former contract lawyer, said that the government and her department is in daily contact with Pfizer and the six other drug companies with which the government has signed vaccine contracts. I can assure you that we put in place contracts that indicated once we have Health Canada approval, deliveries will start as soon as possible. So she said that, you know, she will personally make sure that vaccines are in place in Canada shortly after Health Canada gives that necessary regulatory approval.

So we could actually see some products on our shores in January, frankly, but it's just so uncertain. There are so many unknowns that we that we just can't commit to anything. And the problem is this government has not been transparent about what would happen if we don't get that necessary regulatory approval. Like what's the next step? Right? Where do we go from here? But if all goes well, and if the US pharmaceutical giants can meet those delivery timelines, the Public Health Agency of Canada said as many as 6 million doses could be deployed. And every patient needs two doses of that Pfizer vaccine. So we could see about 3 million people get shots in the arms, not too late into 2021.

So JP, let's assume that happens, right? And the first quarter of 2021, we start to vaccinate, you know, earlier, you painted this picture of the United States being highly organized here, bringing in the military. They have a really detailed plan and sort of alluded to the fact that our plan currently does certainly not seem as detailed. What do we know, if anything, about the plans that are in place right now to actually get this vaccine into people's arms? Yeah, I mean, there really isn't a lot of meat on those bones so far, as we've been discussing. There has been some rough suggestions from the National Vaccine Immunization Council, but we really don't know. I mean, it was only last Friday that they appointed appointment on this, right? Major General Denis Faultain, who's a former NATO commander in Iraq, who will head up the vaccine logistics and operations.

The Canadian Armed Forces will assist on planning, including to meet challenges like cold storage requirements, data sharing and reaching Indigenous and rural communities. They're actually creating kind of a special centre within the public health agency, which will be directed by the military to get this out into the country. But no one can say for certain when people will obviously get those shots. We do know that the National Immunization Council has kind of suggested that older people should get the shots first. They should be first in line. People like health care workers, personal care support workers, other caregivers in long-term care facilities should get it, but also like grocery store clerks.

But there is no federal directive as to who should get it first. It will be up to the provinces and territories. And I heard Christine Elliott last week, the Minister of Health in Ontario here, she was quite frustrated because she doesn't even know what the logistics are. She does not know when Ontario will get a vaccine, how many they'll get, and what they'll have to do to get it out there into the country, into the province. In light of the present comments made by the Prime Minister, I have no revised estimate. This was as big a surprise to me as it was to you. Scott Moe, the Premier of Saskatchewan, suggested much the same as well

last week, saying, you know, we need, as the provinces, it's going to be up to us to actually give out these vaccines to inoculate Canadians. And we don't have any idea about when these are coming. Why would the federal government sign contracts that puts Canada and Canadians at the back of the line? And will the vaccine be distributed to provinces on a per capita basis, as we've been told would happen? So Ottawa, I think, needs to be a lot more open with the provincial leaders who are going to be tasked with doing all this. And Marika, if I could bring you in here, the provinces and territories, you know, what do we know about how ready they are? You know, JP mentioned they're frustrated with the feds right

now, but are they trying to roll out plans of their own as well while this is all going on? Yeah, absolutely. As ever in Canada, there's a joint responsibility across federal provincial lines, and that's always complicating things. The provinces have been told to be ready for January 1. All of the provinces, just like the feds, knew when those vaccine contracts were made, what options they were dealing with. I think some people maybe weren't expecting this to be so fast that we would so quickly in November see these really good Monday morning news stories about Pfizer and Moderna. And I think it seems from the outside looking in that they were a bit caught off guard and now they

are trying to get their systems in place. It's important to note that Canada does and the provinces do have plans to roll out vaccines on an annual basis, right? We see that with the flu vaccine. It's not as if this is a new thing for them. There are more complex elements with this because of questions around timelines and the sheer volume that we'll be dealing with, and also the technology and that cold storage that's needed for what looks like the two leading vaccines. They have experience in this. It's just that they have not at all made clear to the public how they are using that experience to ensure that this goes well in the year ahead. And I think that's really what the difference is. As JP has detailed, these really specific plans

in other countries are not being met with specific plans yet, at least publicly put forward plans in Canada, whether it's from the federal level or the provincial level. And it's important to note that it's just as important on the provincial level to have that plan in place because I don't think that we're going to get you know hot hot commodities like these vaccines unless we can prove that we have these plans ready and that we can actually rule them out. Dr. Alan Bernstein is the president and CEO of CIFAR he's also a member of Canada's COVID-19 vaccine task force. You can imagine a situation where Pfizer is making a batch and they have, you know, 100,000 doses of a large batch left over and the Americans aren't ready to actually distribute it yet.

They're going to be looking around, who can we send it to? And they're going to look at Canada and say, are you guys ready? You know, are the airplanes ready with minus 70 freezers? You know, do you have the priority list for which citizens are going to get it first, second and third? And they'll ask the same thing of other countries. And it's the countries, I think, that say we're all ready to go. All that's been solved that are going to get those vaccines first. I'll see you next time. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. do not know their own household income. That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing.

In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. So, JP, this is a tough question, I feel like, that I'm about to ask you. But given everything that we've just discussed, the Prime Minister said on Friday that the majority of Canadians could be vaccinated by September. And then Deputy Public Health Chief Howard New came out and he sort of tempered this afterwards. And he was like, maybe December. And so I realize this is a moving target.

So it's why it's a tough question to ask you. But, you know, do you think that really, frankly, either of those timelines are realistic, given the discussion that we've had today about so many unknowns at this stage? Yeah, Dr. Newt sort of dialed that back a bit. I think the prime minister this morning or today sort of elaborated further. And I think you mentioned maybe a date of September. I think it's all in the same ballpark. I keep using my sports analogies. I think it's going to be very challenging.

I mean, we've purchased up to 400 million vaccine doses from seven different companies. So we have a lot of options on the table for what we could use. But I think it's impossible to say for certain that we will have a majority of Canadians vaccinated by September. I mean, obviously, that's what they're hopeful will happen because there is so much on the line politically for this government. I mean, it could be a nightmare if Canadians are watching tens of millions of Americans get vaccinated while we're just sitting up here waiting. I mean, there will be a tremendous amount of pressure on the government to actually produce.

So I think that's why he's putting out this ambitious timeline to kind of tamp down some of the criticism that the opposition has been lobbying his way all week. You know, of course, it is incumbent on the federal government to have some sort of plan. And like we've been saying all along, it's just not entirely clear that they have one fully thought out yet. So I don't know if we can really be putting a date up on the wall and circling some

sort of day in September for when we'll all get there when we don't yet know just how fulsome and how thorough the government's plan is at this point. So I think it's all a bit ambitious, frankly. Okay, thanks, you both. Lots to still follow here. And so I hope that you'll come back on soon and keep us posted on where we're at. Thanks so much. Absolutely. Thank you All right, that's all for today. Thanks so much for listening. Tomorrow, we're going to have an update on the economic snapshot that's being released on Monday. So please tune in if you can.

Thanks so much for listening, and we'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.