Front Burner - Alberta’s path to a state of emergency

Episode Date: September 20, 2021

CBC’s Carolyn Dunn on Alberta’s fourth wave after what Premier Jason Kenney promised to be the “best Alberta summer ever.”

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Good morning, everyone. This is a great day that we have all waited for for a long time. Today, we are announcing Alberta's Open for Summer plan. It was a joyous day for Alberta Premier Jason Kenney as he laid out his three-stage plan to fully reopen the province, just in time for July 1st, Canada Day.

Today, we are truly near the end of this thing. We're leaving the darkest days of the pandemic behind and stepping into the warm light of summer. In short, it means that finally getting back to normal. And I think it means the best Alberta summer ever. But last week, it became abundantly clear that the dark days of the pandemic, they're not gone yet. We are facing an emergency that requires immediate action to save lives and to prevent an ongoing crisis in our health care system. Last week, Kenny laid out the dire situation to Albertans. The virus is spreading even more

rapidly than their model's highest projections, and the province may run out of staffed ICU beds in mere days. Alberta actually has more people with COVID in the ICUs in Ontario, even though Ontario has three times the population. Today, the path of Alberta's fourth wave. What took Jason Kenney from heralding the best Alberta summer ever to delivering a crisis in the province's hospitals by the fall? My colleague Carolyn Dunn in Calgary is here to walk us through it. Hey, Carolyn, thanks very much for making the time to speak with us today. Hi, Jamie. I wish I was here to report some more positive news, but here we are. I know.

I know. Me too. So let's talk about how we got here. We just heard how back in May, Premier Jason Kenney was sounding really optimistic, okay? Really hopeful about his three-stage plan to reopen Alberta. And by July 1st, Stage 3 had arrived. And when Stage 3 came, what were Albertans allowed to do at that point? Like, what were the rules slash COVID-19 restrictions in Stage 3?

Well, not many rules at all. It was basically a return to normal. Almost all of the restrictions had been dropped. Indoor social gatherings were allowed. Restrictions on outdoor gatherings were completely lifted. Capacity limits for business and places of worship also gone. Laws mandating masks were rescinded, except for in the healthcare settings and on public transit. You still had to wear a mask. But other than that, it was basically returned to pre-pandemic normal. How did you react to that at the time,

as a journalist, that announcement? Well, when I heard Jason Kenney say, our intention, this is open for good, not just open for summer. I thought that is so bold, such a bold thing to say at a photo op that I better save this tape because it occurred to me immediately that could come back to haunt him. And sure enough, it was a good thing I saved that tape and that it was very handy for me because I've used it a few times over the last few days. I bet. I bet. When he said open for good, what was the state at that time of COVID-19 and COVID-19 immunization that made Kenny and his team feel like the province was actually ready to open and open for good. Well, they set a threshold to reach stage three when 70% of eligible Albertans, that's people over 12 years old, when they had received at least one dose of vaccine,

not even double vax. That was the bar and that's when it happened. This is not a guess. This plan is based on the expert analysis of the chief medical officer, our public health team, looking at global experience. You know, I remember thinking at the time, wow, things really look like they're going fully back to normal over there. I mean, for comparison, here in Ontario on July 1st, we still didn't have indoor

dining. Our mask mandate was still in effect and still now is in effect. And meanwhile, you know, I remember you guys had the Calgary Stampede starting on July 9th. And so how were people feeling about this opening up? Did they feel good about it? As far as the medical experts go, there was not a complete unanimity, but there was a majority of people who were saying reopening is just too risky, saying that, you know, Alberta's reopening plan was drafted before the Delta variant was on scene and that all of the decisions that they were making failed to account for the potential impact of this highly contagious strain. And in hindsight, they were right. The people who were wary or who were raising alarm bells, you know, how were they treated, particularly by Premier Kenney and his inner circle? particularly by Premier Kenny and his inner circle? Well, probably not very well.

Issues manager Matt Wolf tweeted, the pandemic is ending, accept it. And, you know, they were really dismissing the criticism as if it was fear mongering. They were also accusing medical health experts and media of wanting the pandemic to continue. At this stage of this, I don't think it's responsible constantly to be spreading fear. We need to embrace the science of the protective effect of vaccines. So the data is in, the global experience is clear.

This is the most cautious, one of the most cautious plans in the world. So I think this brings us now to like the end of July, beginning of August. And at the end of July, as it starts to become possible to observe what the effect of the reopening is, just talk to me about what started to happen with COVID-19 case counts in Alberta. Well, as soon as the data catches up to the reality, you know, the testing is always delayed. Everything is delayed in COVID. But cases are starting to creep up. But we know with any of the COVID variants, they grow exponentially. And Delta is like coronavirus on crack. It's extremely transmissible. The experts are warning that the doubling rates just keep getting shorter. So the caseload is doubling in a shorter amount of time.

And they were predicting exactly what we're seeing today. Some doctors are blaming the stampede, while others say it is the ripple effect of lifting restrictions. Because we've had almost a threefold increase in our cases, and we know that these are going to continue to increase for the next 10 days at an exponential rate. I know I remember July 30th, you know, it's announced that at least 113 people were confirmed to have caught COVID-19 at the Calgary Stampede. Dr. Dina Hinshaw, Alberta's chief medical officer, she came out and she acknowledged the rise in cases was creating, quote, anxiety in some people. But she added that while COVID-19 cases may rise in the coming weeks and months,

a surge of hospitalizations and other severe outcomes is much less likely thanks to vaccines. Yeah, I guess with the benefit of hindsight, again, what she wasn't seeing was the so called pandemic of the unvaccinated. And sure, there were 70% of eligible Albertans that had one vaccine, but that just wasn't enough. And there were large pockets of unvaccinated people throughout the province. And they were concentrated too, right? I mean, there are actual communities where it's as low as, you know, in the 40s. And so the number of unvaccinated people or people who have only gotten one vaccine are the people who caught COVID and

their cases are literally collapsing the health care system right now. She was counting on vaccinations that just weren't being taken in the percentages necessary to truly mitigate the spread and severity of this virus. I want to talk to you about something else that happened at the end of July, and that was the announcement of an even further lifting of restrictions to come, right? And so tell me about that announcement. After the past 17 months of restrictions, I know this will likely feel like a dramatic shift for many. We have grown accustomed to protective measures, so some anxiety is only natural. Well, it was a big one and it was a shocking one, actually, to many people. It was basically moving to end contact tracing and isolation requirements.

So phase one at the end of July. As of tomorrow, quarantine will no longer be universally legally required for close contacts of confirmed cases. Contact tracers would no longer be notifying close contacts of anyone who had been exposed to COVID-19. And asymptomatic testing of contacts who may have been exposed was no longer being recommended. Then phase two of that is by mid-August, isolation, if you have a positive test, was no longer going to be required. Right. And mask mandates fully lifted.

So basically, you test positive for COVID,, well, go to work. Go shopping. If as long as you're feeling okay. I remember there was some really striking comments too made by doctors who basically said that there was nowhere else in the entire world except now in Alberta where you don't have to isolate after testing positive. Within the medical community, there is plenty of concern. There is a general feeling of shock amongst the colleagues I work with in the hospital that we're doing the absolute wrong thing. I don't want to take this on. I don't want to take on this government. And this was such a big reaction that Dr. Dina Hinshaw, I remember

she actually apologizes for causing confusion, fear or anger in communicating her plan. But she still stood by this plan, right, Carolyn? And at least at least at that point she did. And so what was the justification offered for this move by Hinshaw and by Premier Kenney? Well, I think they were still thinking that even if COVID was spreading around, there'd be so many people who were vaccinated and not getting seriously ill from it that it almost wouldn't matter. It would be like a regular kind of flu season, right? And the significant investment in a widespread contact tracing is not something we can live with for years to come. If we don't help people make this shift now,

the question is when would we make this shift? When would it be more appropriate? But they were also talking about moving on from COVID as the only public health priority to free up resources and to be able to turn attention back to other public health issues like the flu, things like syphilis. And there's a million other, you know, smaller public health issues that probably are falling down on the priority list. And they really wanted to turn their attention back to that. And again, I think there's no perfect answer. There never has been in this pandemic.

But we do need to think about COVID as one risk among many and not as the dominant risk that everything needs to focus on. Dr. Hinshaw has at times been celebrated for being the voice of reason on COVID in Alberta, but Kenny said... We accepted, without modification, the proposal that came forward from the Chief Medical Officer of Health, which is based on science and data.

So what do we know about how her recommendations compared to the government's approach, to the UCP's approach? Well, technically, we know nothing for sure. Unlike Ontario, for example, that has a science table that makes a list of recommendations among the group of them, and then the government accepts those or doesn't accept them. The chief medical officer of health in Alberta makes recommendations to cabinet. And that is not public. So purely from a public transparency point of view,

it is a failing of the system that has been sort of a light shone on it during COVID. But at this point, you know, we have no choice but to just accept what's being said, because there's literally no way barring cabinet leaks to show anything otherwise, we have to, you know, believe that Kenny says that he took that plan, went with it, exactly as she recommended, because how do you prove otherwise? Okay, and so by mid August, the province does back off their controversial stance, Okay. And so by mid-August, the province does back off their controversial stance, which allows people with COVID-19 to not isolate. And so why do they do that? Why do they back off of that decision? Well, I guess the numbers don't lie and the numbers are public. The rates of

hospitalizations from COVID-19 were significantly greater than what their own internal modeling had suggested. Our initial modeling showed that at this time we would expect to have about 90 total cases in hospital. Compared to 146 cases in hospital today, this is an increase of 62% over our projections. But Dr. Dina Hinshaw said there is no threat to hospital capacity at this time. Anyone who needs treatment will be able to get it, either for a COVID-related illness or for an unrelated issue. And that got, again, public health and data experts in a bit of a tizzy. COVID cases and hospitalizations are again spiking in Alberta,

but so far no move to bring back restrictions. The premier and his chief medical officer of health haven't spoken publicly in weeks. Where is Premier Kenney during this time as cases continue to go up? So that's a good question. We know that he was on vacation for a couple or a few weeks, which is, you know, fair enough. But his health minister and chief medical officer of health and virtually anyone who had any role in the pandemic was completely or virtually completely absent during this time. Why do you think they were so absent during this time? Well, you can only speculate. I mean, the premier has said, look, I was on vacation and I'm a person with a heavy work schedule, so I need to be able to take a decent break sometimes. And I think that that is absolutely fair enough. It's important that

a person in my position doesn't burn out, has a chance to recharge my batteries. I can tell you, in my position, doesn't burn out, has a chance to recharge my batteries. I can tell you I was in touch with my office, with senior ministers. But the plan wasn't going the way that they had hoped. And so people are sort of at least speculating about why he might have stayed away. One, he was going to have to answer to this plan that just wasn't working. Also, that he was going to have to do this in the middle of a federal election. It went so differently than how he hoped it was going to go. And, you know, there were real political implications for how that might affect a conservative campaign of Aaron O'Toole. Yeah. Probably just worth mentioning here,

while all this was happening in August, you could still buy hats from the UCP's website that say, Best Summer Ever Alberta 2021. Yeah. Yeah. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years.

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So meanwhile, you know, as cases continue to skyrocket across the province by September 1st, now we're in September, there were 12,290 active cases and 465 people in hospital. And after not being seen for 23 days, Kenny does come back from vacation with a Facebook Live event on September 1st. And there, he again defended his government's approach to COVID-19 and placed much of the blame for the increasing case numbers on a lagging vaccination rate in the province. Increasingly, it's become a disease of the unvaccinated. If we had, instead of 78% vaccine coverage, or let's say 69% full coverage,

vaccine coverage, or let's say 69% full coverage, if we had 90% coverage, we would not have meaningful pressure on the healthcare system. But while Quebec and BC and Manitoba, Ontario had all said they're going ahead with some kind of vaccine passport to access some public spaces by this point, Kenny rejected that notion and instead on September 3rd announced a different kind of vaccine incentive, a $100 preloaded debit card to anyone getting their first or second shot. I wish we didn't have to do this, but this is not a time for moral judgments. This is a time to get people vaccinated. We have done everything we can, left no stone unturned. And do you have a sense of what impact that's had on vaccination rates in the province?

Well, first on people, it ticked them off. People who had already been vaccinated, there was a lot of criticism for rewarding people who in their minds hadn't done the right thing, but it didn't cause a flood of vaccinations. It did cause an uptick. There were more appointments booked, but it was widely panned and not particularly successful or we wouldn't be where we are today.

As Alberta's hospitals fill with COVID-19 patients, many surgeries are being put on hold, including 31-year-old Eric Mulders, scheduled to have a cancerous brain tumor removed this week, but no more. I was probably shaking for an hour afterwards. And that brings us to where we are today. Let's start with last week. We all wish we could simply turn the page and leave COVID in the past. But this disease is an invisible and ever-changing foe. And we have no choice but to face the grave threat of this fourth wave head-on. Kenney comes out and announces he's declaring a state, a public health emergency, and that there may not be any staffed ICU beds left in 10 days. It's a grave announcement, and it's one that contains an apology from the

premier. And can you tell me about that apology? Well, it was as close to remorse as we've seen from Jason Kenney about any of the pandemic handling. We believed that we could prudently move away from addressing COVID as a pandemic and towards an endemic. It is now clear that we were wrong. And for that, I apologize. However, in the same press conference, Kenny clarified that he wasn't actually apologizing for lifting public health measures in July. He thought that that was the right thing to do.

What he was apologizing for was just saying that they're open for good. Okay. We actually saw that case counts and even the Delta variant continued to stabilize and even come down through most of July. It's under a different name, but I know they also announced a vaccine passport program. So what this means is that anyone who has valid proof of immunization or has a negative result from a privately paid for COVID test can access some services, businesses or events without

having to physically distance. And what does that look like now? Well, you know, just in the few days since that's happened, the demand for the COVID-19 vaccinations, the bookings have tripled in Alberta. One thing to note, though, is that in Alberta is incredibly, incredibly dire right now. The state of emergency has been called. Nearly 78% of all COVID patients in Alberta's hospitals are unvaccinated or partly vaccinated. Alberta's death rate is triple every other province except Saskatchewan. The leaders of Alberta's largest health unions are calling on Kenny to ask Ottawa to bring in the military. And so I know that there is a lot of anger at Kenny in Alberta right now,

both from those in his base who were told he'd end COVID measures and feel betrayed, and those who feel Kenny acted far too late and is responsible for the fourth wave's growing death count. So it kind of feels like a lose-lose scenario for him. So Carolyn, what do you ultimately think kept Kenny on his pandemic is over track for so long. If you had to name just one thing, is it politics? Is it the province's culture? Is it because he believed this was the right course of action? Is it hubris? Ideology, if you want me to say one word, I really believe that Jason Kenney believes in the least amount of government intervention in any circumstance, including apparently a public health crisis. You know, he believes in personal responsibility over government mandates.

That much is true. And this just hasn't worked out for him. The personal responsibility part of the equation just didn't follow. So the hubris part, I suppose, comes in when you see how long it has taken him and his government to change course, even with this startling data upon them and admit that they made some mistakes. What does his political future look like, you think? Well, the knives are out for Kenny within his own party. There's no question about that.

There are MLAs, the money people in the party. You know, he's not bringing in donations, half of what the NDP is. The NDP is doubling not just the money, but also the UCP and the polls. So you put any leader in that position, and there's going to be questions about their leadership. The only obvious thing that is really kind of stopping this process of going after Kenny's leadership quickly, or even before now, is that there's no heir apparent, you know, this was his party that he started. And there's no one obvious sort of sitting and waiting in the wings of this new party.

So killing the king might just mean killing the party. Okay. Carolyn, thank you. Thank you so much for this. Always great to come on with you, Jamie. All right. So before we go today, just a very friendly neighborhood reminder that it is election day. And regardless of who you vote for, I really do hope that you'll all get out there and vote. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening to FrontBurner.

We'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.