Front Burner - Amidst ‘profound political crisis,’ UK heads to the polls

Episode Date: December 9, 2019

The UK election campaign is entering its final days. On Thursday, the country will head to the polls for the third time in under five years. The incumbent Tory, Boris Johnson, is promising to “get Brexit done.” Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is proposing another referendum. Both leaders are grappling with grim popularity ratings. Today on Front Burner, BBC’s Rob Watson lays out the high stakes, saying “the UK has never faced a peacetime challenge like Brexit.”

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Jamie Poisson. Pretty much since FrontBurner launched about a year ago now, we've been telling you, Brexit is a mess. So with the United Kingdom going to the polls in just a few days, you might be thinking to yourself, finally, this whole thing is going to get sorted out nice and neatly, once and for all.

Well, don't hold your breath. I'm afraid listening to Mr Corbyn, it's absolutely clear, Parliament, our country, would spend a whole year more, probably more, locked in debate about Brexit. Mr Johnson will spend at least seven years negotiating with the USA on access to our public services on the price of medicines in Britain. Today, I'm speaking with Rob Watson. He's the BBC World Service's UK political correspondent.

He's going to explain why the stakes are higher than ever and the prospects of stability are slim. This is Frontburner. Frontburner. Rob, thank you so much for coming on to the podcast. Welcome to Frontburner. Well, it's an absolute pleasure to be with you, Jamie. And to set this in some kind of context for you, so as no one thinks that, you know, that we shouldn't be talking about this, why on earth are we bothering? I mean, I do not think it's an exaggeration to say we are speaking, Jamie, at a time of Britain's most profound political crisis since the end of the Second World War in 1945.

I mean, it is that big. Tell me more about that. Why so? Why are the stakes so high? Well, the stakes are so high because what's at stake is nothing less than not just the United Kingdom's future relationship with the European Union, with Europe, of which, of course, it's been a member of for 40 years. But about more than that, it's about the UK's entire place in the world. I mean, if it's going to be less close to Brussels, does that mean it's going to pivot to become much closer to North America and in particular, the United States? Okay, so let's try and unpack what you just said there over the next 20 minutes.

You know, I know that Prime Minister Boris Johnson called this election in the first place, the third in less than five years for you guys. I don't want an early election. No one much wants to have an election in December. But we've got to the stage where we have no choice. So why did he do it? Why did he call this election? Okay, so there's the official reason and then there's the unofficial one, right? Yeah, which is always the more interesting one.

Yeah, so I better give you the official one first, the one that Mr. Johnson gives. And that is that, look, he'd reached this deal with the European Union, but he said he couldn't really get it through Parliament properly because the Conservatives didn't have a majority. Right, his party didn't have a majority. Yeah, so he wants to have an election. I've got to the stage where I'd be wanting to chew my own tie in frustration because, in a sense, we're so nearly there. We've got a deal oven ready. deal, oven ready?

I mean, the unofficial reason is that, seen from Mr Johnson's point of view and the people around him, they just think we're never, ever going to be against anyone more hopeless than Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, than we've got now. So, hey, guys, let's get on with it. You know, let's take advantage of the main opposition party being so weak and its leader so unpopular, because I think it's worth noting just sort of quickly in in passing jamie i mean ever since this question was asked about how do

you rate leaders uh first asked in the uk in the late 1970s nobody has polled worse than jeremy corbyn so so what why i mean i suppose people would say there were that there were four reasons one is that one you know which is why why is it that some people aren't popular? I mean, why is it you like some people, not others? In other words, the one that's really tricky. I mean, I guess, secondly, you would say that maybe just his policies aren't appealing to everybody. I mean, he's an absolute avowed socialist. The problem with this country is we've gone too far down the road of free market economics we've created too

much inequality so that and then then the third one i think is just this idea of you know in our country a bit like in canada you know her majesty's opposition which is what he leads i mean they're supposed to do that they're supposed to provide a bit of forensic opposition a kind of critique to the party that's in power. And given how utterly hopeless the Conservatives have been under both Mrs May and now Mr Johnson, you had a thought you'd be able to lay a blow on them. But he's hardly landed a punch. And then the fourth thing, of course, is the accusations of anti-Semitism swirling around the Labour Party. You see, what Jewish members of the Labour Party say is, if this was black or Asian people who are victims of racism,

you would listen to them. But when Jews say that your party under your leadership is infected with anti-Jewish hatred, you say, no, no, I know better. I don't know better than anybody. I listen to people and amend, if necessary, the rules and processes. And tell me more about that. I don't know a lot about that.

So essentially, ever since Jeremy Corbyn became the leader of the opposition Labour Party in, I'm trying to think when it was now, after the election in 2015, I remember standing there and when the result was announced, there'd been hundreds of allegations of anti-Semitism. And what people have said is what has happened is that hundreds of people, well, thousands and thousands have joined the Labour Party since he became leader. A lot of people who, and not all of them, obviously, but a sort of a significant minority

who have that what's known as the sort of modern far-left anti-Semitism, which is, you know, seeing Jews as capitalists and seeing Israel as this sort of evil outpost of Western imperialism in the Middle East. Obviously, I'm very sorry for everything that's happened, but I want to make this clear. I am dealing with it. I have dealt with it.

Other parties are also affected by anti-Semitism. And so you mentioned, you know, he's an avowed socialist. How does he want to change the economic structure of the country? Well, you know, in some ways it's a bit less radical than it looks. So in the UK, the state kind of spends about 39% on the conservatives, under the Conservatives of the nation's wealth on public services, so schools, health. Jeremy Corbyn is talking about getting that share of the state, what the state does, up to about 45% of the economy,

which is kind of broadly in line with the rest of Europe. If every single bit of our manifesto was carried out tomorrow, we would just about reach the level of the public services of France or Germany. That is how far backwards we've gone. Why are so many children in oversized classes? Why are there so many people waiting for social care? So in that sense, you know, the sense in which he wants to have a bigger state, a more active state, it's not massively out of line with the rest of Europe. Some of the other things that he wants to do, which is taking back

chunks of the economy into public ownership and having much higher taxes on the rich, well, that is clearly somewhat different to the rest of Europe. I mean, not massively, but you can see the direction of travel. I mean, he just basically thinks that the state should be far more involved in the provision of all the things that people want in their lives, and the state should be far more involved in the provision of all the things that people want in their lives, and the state should be far more involved in the economy. We will unleash a record investment blitz, rebuild our schools, our hospitals, care homes, and the housing so desperately need.

We will scrap university tuition fees. The very fastest full fiber broadband for free. And is it sort of, is it fair for me to say that this is is the political party furthest to the left that the UK has seen in quite some time or ever? Oh yeah, absolutely. This is the most left-wing incarnation of the Labour Party since the end of the Second World War.

And of course, at the end of the Second World War, Mr Churchill, Winston Churchill, lost his job. Out of the second world war mr churchill winston churchill lost his job out of the election melting pot comes his successor the electors have thought deeply and they realize that labor's policy is the only policy that can lead us to peace abroad and social justice at home and the new labor government did nationalize did put into public ownership all sorts of things the steel industry and provided a national health service, free education, all that kind of thing. But here's one of the weird things, Jamie. If you tell, if you put a lot of the policies that Jeremy Corbyn advocates to people, they say, yeah, we like that.

But actually, once you tell them it's a Labour Party policy, they're less enthusiastic. Oh, that's interesting. Yeah. But I mean, you know, but people are like that in all sorts of countries, all sorts of policies. You know, and of course, Boris Johnson isn't particularly popular either, right? We've done an episode that outlined some of his most famous gaffes. Get me a ladder. The man who once compared Muslim women in burqas to bank robbers and letterboxes.

But can you tell us a bit more about why Mr. Johnson is also dealing with pretty grim popularity ratings too? So that is a very good question. And I guess I would say that the context here is, I think it's what's known in North America as an ugly baby contest, right? I mean, I've said that, I've said that Jeremy... What is an ugly baby contest? Well, I heard that when I was living in North America. I think that's what they used to say about unpopular candidates in the United States. Because that's what you've got here. I mean, you know, whoever wins this election, it won't be because they're really liked. It's because they're somewhat less disliked than the other person.

So why is he so unpopular? Well, I think, you know, the half of the country that voted Remain, you know, basically think that the entire Leave campaign was profoundly deceitful he so unpopular well i think you know the half of the country that voted remain you know basically think that the that the entire leave campaign was profoundly deceitful and was full of of sort of you know half truths and outright lies apart right the the very he was a leader of it brexit bus that he paraded around the uk we sent 350 million to europe we don't and you know we don't no we don't you know we don't admit that that figure is grotesquely misleading at best. I won't. I won't.

Exactly. And that's why I do think that if he, you know, that if he ends up winning this election, I mean, he's going to start in a very tricky position where about half of the population just can't stick you. Does the truth matter in this election? I think it does. And I think it's very important. Racist rhetoric in this country is completely rife. Will you admit that you have personally contributed to this and say the words, I'm sorry? I've written many millions of words in my life as a journalist and I've never intended to cause hurt or pain. Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization.

Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. How is Brexit fitting into the conversation here? Because, you know, I know Boris Johnson, he is campaigning on getting Brexit done. He wants to pass this deal that he's made with the European Union. We can not only take back control of our money, we can take back control of our borders, we can take back control of our laws so that we can do things differently and better from free ports to free trade deals. Where does the Labour Party stand on this?

Here's what I'd say about this election, Jamie. And, you know, you have to pinch yourself at this sentence. I may have to say it a couple of times. This election is all about Brexit. But in in a funny way it's nothing about Brexit so it's all about Brexit in this sense Britain as a country polarised along leave remain lines and so it's about Brexit in the sense that the parties are trying to figure out okay given the voters that polarised how do we play it to our maximum advantage how do we maximize our vote but it's not about brexit in the sense of you know is britain having an incredibly sensible

and profound detailed discussion about the merits of uh of brexit or of not doing it or mr johnson's version absolutely not and i would say it will actually make people's lives better or worse i would say that is storing up huge trouble for the future. In other words, this was supposed to be an election about Brexit. But it's only an election about Brexit in the sense of maximizing votes. So if I just say tell you briefly about Mr. Johnson, and he's making this calculation that look, all I need to do is to appeal to leave voters. Why? And tell them get Brexit done. Because if you think about it, there were 17.4 million people who voted leave in 2016 he's hoping right if i get the majority of those voters but the remain vote that is more scattered amongst all the parties and it could i win i win but isn't isn't this the calculation that theresa may made last time

around and it didn't go so great for her. They still have the largest party in parliament but they have not got a majority and therefore it's been a terrible terrible mistake for Theresa May to throw away the majority that was won by David Cameron in 2015. This has been a nice vindication for Jeremy Corbyn defying his critics with Labour's best result for almost 20 years. Cracking question Jamie I mean I mean, absolutely, it is. I mean, it was slightly different then just in terms of the, you know, just the sheer passage of time. But you're absolutely right. I mean, look, Mr Johnson is running the same election as Mrs May,

which is to say, right, we've got to get on with Brexit, whatever on earth that means. The Labour Party is led by this dreadful old lefty. Vote for me. We're a government that understands that if you're going to have a dynamic market economy, you cannot clobber them. You cannot clobber companies with the highest taxes in Europe, which is what Mr Corbyn and the Labour Party would do.

So what is Labour's position on Brexit? Right. So first of all, I'll come up with a metaphor and then I'll give you that. Then I'll give you their policy. OK. So, you know, in this country, you know, I told you this is a country split along remain leave lines. So it's like saying we live in a country where everybody, you know, they either want to buy an apple or an orange. Right. But Mr. Corbyn is coming along saying, what about a grapefruit? Right, leave or not leave. And he's like, here's something in the middle. What is the grapefruit?

Well, his proposal is we will renegotiate in a matter of just three months a better deal than the one Mr. Johnson got. And then within six months, we will have a second referendum. My role as the prime minister would be to ensure that decision is carried out whatever it is. But nobody voted to lose their job or to lose trade with Europe. And here's the kicker. I mean, this is the one that's really difficult to sell. Oh, and by the way, Mr Corbyn says, I'm not going to take sides. So we'll have another referendum, but I won't take sides,

even though I will have been the one who negotiated a deal. Right. So every time he's appeared, you know, in a debate with Mr. Johnson, Mr. Johnson, it quickly gets around to him saying, well, everybody on the Labour front bench is campaigning to remain, apart from Mr. Corbyn, who is neutral. How can you get a deal if you don't actually believe in it? Why should people believe Boris Johnson when he says that he could,

he can shepherd this exit from the European Union? Well, I think critics would say, and diplomats who'd been involved in this would say, he'd be insane to believe him, that it's a really tall order. I mean, I don't think there's any deal that the European Union has negotiated with any country in recent years that took less than three years. So Mr. Johnson is saying we'll leave the EU at the end of January and we will have negotiated our new relationship before a sort of what's known as a transition phase ends at the end of next year, at the end of 2020. What our deal allows is for British businesses of all kinds to have perfect confidence

in the way we leave the EU because we are in a state of equivalence with zero tariff, zero quota, and we have ample time to build a new free trade partnership. But I think that the true answer to your question, and this will be familiar to people who watch the politics south of your border, and that is the people that want Brexit, your border. And that is, you know, the people that want Brexit, that like Brexit, that just want to leave. I mean, I think they want to believe, Mr. Johnson. And then the other half of the country that thinks that Brexit is nuts and that everybody who was involved in the Leave campaign is about as trustworthy as a, well, I'll leave you to finish that sentence, as trustworthy as a snake or salesman,

think this is just rubbish. How could the other half of the population be so dumb, so credulous as they would say it? In other words, people believe what they want to believe, right? And do you see that the country is just as divided as it was a few years back when you had this referendum which split the country in the first place? Or is it even more divided? The latter. It's even more divided. And if you had to say,

you know, if you had to say the worst thing about the fallout from the referendum, and I guess Mrs. May's handling has got something to do with this, is that, you know, the referendum in 2016 artificially exacerbated divisions that were already here in the UK, divisions between young and old, well-off, not so well-off, cosmopolitan. Rural and urban. Yeah, you know, the kind of things that you're familiar with in Canada and, of course, are familiar with in the United States. So it's artificially exacerbated those divisions.

And then, of course, over the last three years of the sort of Brexit fight, it's just made things worse. And I think, you know, an awful lot of Remainers have taken even more, an even dimmer view of Leavers than they did three years ago. And Leavers tend to think of Remainers as people who just will not accept, you know, the outcome of democracy. Right. You want to just keep asking the question until you get the answer that you want. Absolutely. And that's why I said right at the very start, you want to just keep asking the question until you get the answer that you want. Absolutely, and that's why I said right at the very start, you know, this is the most profound political crisis

this country's faced, because not, you know, not just, it's not just that the parties are in a mess and internally divided and all cross with each other, but the people are cross as well. I mean, this is like a perfect storm. Do you know how you're going to vote yet? Yeah. How are you going to vote?

Conservative. Do you normally? Yeah. No. You don't? But I want to get out of this EU. And you trust Boris Johnson? Not particularly, but he's about the only one that's going to get us out as far as I can make out. Jeremy Corbyn, well, I just don't like him at all.

And Boris Johnson, well, he seems to tell one lie after the other. So who knows? Is there anyone who's just campaigning on straight up killing Brexit? Yes. So that's a smaller party called the Liberal Democrats, led by a woman called Jo Swinson. Liberal Democrat MPs will be absolutely focused on stopping Brexit. And the more Liberal Democrat MPs that there are, the more likely it is that we will be able to achieve that. And they have just bombed in the election. And I think they made a strategic mistake. In fact, I think when historians look back on this election, on this period, they will say, goodness, what on earth happened? I mean, I'm assuming that Mr. Johnson

wins, Brexit goes ahead. They will say, what happened? Because the opinion polls suggest that actually, there has been a move away from Brexit, support for it in the country. I mean, not massive, but I would say if there was another referendum, I suspect the majority would vote not to leave. Right, because it was razor thin last time around. It was 52-48. And I suspect, I mean, the polls suggest it'd be a similar vote, but the other way if we had another referendum. So what I'm saying is, I think historians will say, well, goodness, well, why didn't those parties that thought that Brexit was a really dumb idea, or at the very least believed that there should be a second referendum, why didn't they form some kind of an electoral pact?

Why didn't the Labour Party that we've already discussed and this Liberal Democrat Party which opposes Brexit, why didn't they put aside their difference and say, you know, let's unite, let's have a pact, let's be the politicians who are for a second vote? Look, I've said for many reasons Jeremy Corbyn is not fit to be Prime Minister. Neither is Boris Johnson. But they didn't do that. And if Mr Johnson wins, I think historians will say that is why.

And so do you think that that is what's going to happen when Britons go to the polls on December 12th? You know, I know that there's a lot of talk about strategic voting. I mean, that is the one thing that could make a difference. I mean, if you decide, because, you know, as you know, Britain is split. It's sliced into 650 constituencies. It's a first-past-the-post system. I mean, if you just thought, if you were a voter who thought, you know what, I'm going to hold my nose. I just vote for anyone who's got the best chance of beating the Conservatives. Then the result could be closer. What do you see for the future of the

UK? How do you see this playing out over the next couple of years? So I think I'd answer the question like this, Jamie. And that is, if I was a politician, I'd be thinking to myself, this would be a good election to lose. And I know no politician thinks that in a democracy. Why do I say that? Because, number one, the UK has never faced a peacetime challenge like Brexit since the Second World War. I mean, it is the most complicated thing. Our membership of the EU has been a cornerstone of our foreign and domestic policy for 40 years. Undoing that, immensely difficult. Okay,

strike one. Feels like a thankless job. Yeah. Strike two, the government's own forecast suggests that there is no version of Brexit that won't damage the economy. And you know, until now, you know, yes, things have happened. The pound has fallen against the dollar, against the euro. You know, there's been a sort of a slowing of the economy, but nothing cataclysmic has happened. Now, all of their forecasts suggest every version of Brexit will be bad. And then there's the third one. And in many ways, this is the real clincher.

And it's this, you know, all the opinion polls suggest that this is a country that's not only profoundly polarised, but it's a country where people really are having serious doubts about politicians, trust in politicians and in the entire political system. I was undecided going into debate I've realised they are all flawed individuals, they are all weak leaders, they've all got bad track records, I can't trust any of them and I still don't know who I'm going to vote for.

No one represented the younger demographic. We do not share the same values. No one spoke up for young people. So the reason why I answered your question the way I did was, would you really want to take power? Would you really want to be the one getting the keys to Downing Street facing that size of a challenge? And a country, an electorate where people are so divided and where people have so little faith in you, in the system, in experts, in facts. I mean, you've got to ask yourself, I mean, would you want the job? Rob Watson, thank you so much for this conversation.

It was incredibly fascinating. Thank you very much for having me and for chatting, Jamie. Speaking of Boris Johnson, maybe you caught Saturday Night Live over the weekend. Comedian James Corden played the British politician to a T, I thought. The Cold Open also starred Paul Rudd as French President Emmanuel Macron and Jimmy Fallon as the Canadian PM Justin Trudeau. It was a spoof of last week's NATO meeting, though for the skit, it was set in a cafeteria where Donald Trump didn't get to sit at the cool table.

Anyways, have a listen. Oh my God, that guy's a mess. Did you hear him talk about climate change the other day? He said we need stronger toilets. He's like dumber than Boris. He's dumber than me. Ha, ha, ha, he's dumber than me. Ha, ha, ha, ha. That's all for today.

I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening to FrontBurner and see you all tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.