Front Burner - As Omicron spreads, governments scramble

Episode Date: December 16, 2021

With the holidays approaching and the Omicron variant spreading rapidly in Canada, people are reconsidering their response. In a busy week of Omicron warnings, Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said cases are expected to “rapidly escalate”; in her fiscal and economic update, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland committed a $4.5 billion “variant response” contingency; and Canada advised against all non-essential international travel. Provinces are expanding testing and booster access. Today on Front Burner, a discussion with Globe and Mail health columnist André Picard about our pandemic cycle of delay and panic, and the lessons and tools that still might make us better prepared for Omicron.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Angela Starrett. For sure, we are seeing community transmission, possibly in its early stages, but this can rapidly escalate in the days to come. This is the warning from Canada's top doctor that kicked off an avalanche of Omicron concern this week.

Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam talked about the variant's great spread potential on Monday. What we're seeing in Ontario, I expect to be seen in other areas of the country. Then, on Tuesday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland was promising cash in her economic update. And we are provisioning an additional $4.5 billion to pay for possible further costs of fighting Omicron and other COVID-19 surges. That night, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with premiers. That night, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with premiers. And by Wednesday, as some provinces were expanding boosters and rapid testing, the Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs advised against non-essential travel. We are asking Canadians to be cautious heading into the holiday season.

If you do not have to travel internationally, please do not. But with cases already rising in Canada, and as Tam warns we could be days behind the UK's massive outbreak, I can't help but ask, didn't we know Omicron was a threat weeks ago? And it's not just our governments suddenly feeling like Omicron is real. With the holidays approaching, people are rethinking, sadly, whether it makes sense to gather with their loved ones. So today, I'm talking with Globe and Mail health columnist Andre Picard about why we're caught in the cycle of waiting and panic, and which pandemic lessons we've actually learned. Hi, Andre.

Hi. So I guess the emotional fatigue from four waves of COVID is one thing. And I think even worse with Omicron and all these questions about immunity is that it almost feels like we're kind of where we were in 2020, like starting at this place where we don't really know what's happening again. But I'm wondering if you could compare for me here, where are we actually at right now versus March of 2020? Yeah, it is very similar in that we have this new variant. So there's a lot of unknown. There's a lot of uncertainty like there was at the beginning of the pandemic.

But we have a lot of big advantages now. We have two years of experience almost. We have vaccines. We have boosters. We understand better how things like masks work, the importance of physical distancing. We have rapid testing now. We're paying more attention to ventilation. So we're in a way better spot.

Right. And do you think Canadians are taking this seriously? Or do you think it's more that we have the tools at hand to address it in a more effective way? I think people are taking it seriously overall. But I think there is, as you mentioned before, there's a lot of pandemic fatigue. We're tired of hearing, you know, the sky is falling, the sky is falling, the fifth wave is coming. So we're getting tired of these messages. And, you know, things never turn out quite as bad as they could, which is good.

But people are kind of saying, I'm tired of doing this. I just want to get on with life. So it's a much more difficult political and scientific and communications environment, even though we have all these advantages. And I mean, you know, the timing can't be worse. Again, Omicron cases are climbing right as we head into Christmas and New Year's and holidays. People are wanting to travel. What's waiting for us if Canadians decide, you know, well, I'm vaccinated. The pandemic is over, quote unquote, over for me. I'm throwing a huge holiday party. You know, screw'm vaccinated. The pandemic is over, quote unquote, over for me. I'm throwing a huge holiday party. Screw it all. Yeah. I think what awaits us is more pain and more misery. There's

definitely going to be a spike in cases. There's going to be a huge fifth wave and we have some control over just how big the wave is going to be. So, you know, I started saying in September, it's almost inevitable that we're going to have a fifth wave in January. You just have to look at the patterns of how the disease was spreading. And people didn't want to hear that, but it's almost too late now to do what we could to prevent this entirely. But we can still do a lot through our individual behavior to control the spread. Right. And I know the data we're getting is still, it's still pretty early, but just how quickly does it look like Omicron is able to spread? It looks like it spreads two, three times faster than Delta, which spread two times faster than Alpha. So it is significantly more, but the offsetting part of this is it looks like it causes

less severe illness. Now, I hesitate to say that because it makes people complacent. And when you do the math, it's sort of like there's going to be a lot more cases, but fewer people sick, but it's still going to be a big stressor on hospitals. There's still going to be a significant percentage of people who get severely ill, even if overall it's not as serious. So it's hard to balance to do that calculus as an individual, let alone as a society. So we have to try and find the way to handle this. You just mentioned that there's data suggesting symptoms are less severe, but do we know that for sure yet? We don't know that for sure. We're getting more and more research. It's looking like that,

but there's all kinds of caveats to that, right? So I think the most important one to remember, this is really, this has become a pandemic of the unvaccinated now. And I think we have to remember the unvaccinated are at the same risk today as they were in March 2020. It's as if there's no vaccine. They have the highest risk of hospitalization and death by a long shot. People who are vaccinated, the new thing with Omicron is they have a greater chance of being infected, but they have a much lesser chance of being sick. So there are these trade-offs.

Vaccination has become, if anything, more important, even though the vaccine is not as effective against the variant. That seems paradoxical, but that's the reality. And I know it's really hard right now to say exactly how many cases caused by Omicron are in Canada, but what do we know about how many of those are in this country? We just have, we have some genomic testing. So we have a little bit of an idea. What we do know is the trend line and the trend line is it's the numbers are jumping, they're doubling, tripling every day. So by the time January arrives, within a couple of weeks, Omicron is going to be the dominant strain. There's almost no question about that. So we're seeing

what happened with Delta. It rapidly took over the previous strain, and we're going to see that it's going to be the dominant strain by the new year. And again, there's good and bad in that. Right. It can be frustrating to see Canadians choosing not to get vaccinated or wear masks, especially with Omicron spreading. But it's also strange to see, I think, in many ways, what our governments are allowing. I mean, I went to a hockey game last night with thousands of people. I guess that was my choice.

Queen Hughes comes up front. Centers, putt, calls and scores! You know, we saw our provincial health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, at a football game getting autographs from folks. What are the lessons from previous waves that provinces are failing to learn here? I think what concerns me the most is not that these events are taking place, but kind of the mixed messaging that we're getting. So we're saying, you know, it's okay to go to a hockey game with 20,000 people, but at

the same time, we're telling people don't have more than 10 people for a Christmas party. So there's this real cognitive dissonance there. Now, that being said, there's all kinds of things. These buildings are well ventilated the NHL, for example. So that, I think, should give us a cause for concern. Thankfully, a lot of hockey games are being cancelled. But I think the governments have to get their messaging much more clear on this so that it makes sense to your average person. I mean, we've talked a bit about how we don't know everything about Omicron yet. How much precaution should the provinces be taken, given that we're kind of in this we don't know stage right now? Yeah, this has been the reality. We've lived with uncertainty a couple of years now.

And I think the lesson is, and the mistake we keep making over and over again, is waiting until things get too bad to act. So we should be, I think Omicron is a chance for us to do things a little smarter, to be a little bit more proactive. Let's not wait till there are 10,000 cases before we have another lockdown. I think we have to bring in measures carefully, but more quickly than in the past. And I don't think that any jurisdiction in Canada has really learned that lesson well. If we look around the world, the countries that are doing best, there's no question are those that act swiftly. They don't always get it right, but they always

do things quickly. You know, I've been saying for many months, it's easier to be fast and fail than to be slow and fail. The being fast one pays off more. Do you think at this point, the provinces should kind of be taking a step back? You know, let's give it a week of not going into restaurants or let's not do hockey games right now. I think we have to try and find that balance. I don't think we have to be as locked down as we were a year ago because we do have a lot of people vaccinated, an incredible number, more than 80% of Canadians. So there has to be some payoff for that. There has to be a reward for that. But I think what we can't afford to do is what I'm seeing some provinces do, which is lift restrictions now. Right. And Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with premiers Tuesday night. While Alberta is moving to

give out free rapid tests and lower ages for booster shots, it's also lifting some rules on social gatherings. So more than two households and the unvaccinated can gather indoors if there's less than 10 adults. Is Jason Kenney balancing his response here or sending the wrong message? I think he's once again, I think he's doing what he did in July. I think he's making a big mistake, bad messaging. The really concerning part of Alberta is to say that there's no distinction between vaccinated and unvaccinated. That's simply nonsense. We know that the vaccinated, the unvaccinated are a much greater risk for spreading, for getting sick, and they have to be treated differently. You know, I know there's all this rhetoric about you're setting people apart, you're picking on people, but people who are unvaccinated should be picked on.

The rules should be stricter. There's no question. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. not know their own household income. That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. While dozens of individual schools are closing, to COVID outbreaks, some of the strongest provincial action we're seeing is New Brunswick starting its holiday break early.

Ontario students are being given rapid tests to bring home on their break. I mean, what more should be done to stop spread in schools, especially so many where kids aren't vaccinated yet or just getting vaccinated now? Yeah, there's a real sense of despair among parents. That's the thing I'm really hearing a lot of today because we're starting to hear rumblings about will kids go back to school in January? Will things move online in some provinces? And that makes parents understandably very depressed that this would happen.

I think the school question, though, is very complex. I've said all along that we have to choose our battles. I've always thought that getting kids in school should be a number one priority in society. So we should figure out how to do that safely rather than just fall back on putting this burden on parents, which is really unfair, especially for poorer parents. So there's a lot of advantages for having kids in school. When they're not in school, what are they doing? They're not necessarily safer. So we have to figure out, you know, better ventilation. I think we really have to step up vaccination of children. It's going

relatively well, but it's really slow. The rollout has not been going at any breakneck speed. So we have to work on that stuff rather than just say, oh, let's close down schools and go online. I just think that schooling has to be a priority in society. I want to talk about some of the reasons you said we're in a better position now than, say, in March 2020. One, of course, is that, as you say, over three quarters of all Canadians are fully vaccinated. But with concerns, are vaccines work less against Omicron? How important does it look like booster shots are going to be? Yeah, booster shots, there's no question they're going to be important.

I don't like to use the language booster shots either. I think a third dose, I think we're realizing this is a three-dose vaccine, like many other vaccines are three doses. That's kind of normal, and we forgot that in this discussion. We got a little enthusiastic, I think, thinking two doses would work. So I think three doses has to be the norm. But the question is now, who should get the boosters first? And I think there's a little bit, again, there's a lot of rhetoric in recent days about let's let everyone get a booster. I'm not sure that's useful. I think we have to really focus on getting people who are

most at risk. So elders, people with chronic illnesses, healthcare workers, teachers. And I think, and Bonnie Henry has been very good at this. She's talked about, there's not really an advantage to rushing people to get a booster if it hasn't been at least six months or eight months since their last shot. And I think there's some people are getting worked up about this. I want my booster now, but it's not necessarily going to be that helpful for especially for younger people, those under 50. So I think we have to be careful there to make sure we use the vaccines we have wisely. What's the argument, I guess, why not act fast and give boosters to everyone over 18 because it might help? everyone over 18, because it might help. Yeah, I think it might help.

But I think the argument is that if you just open it up to everyone, you advantage, you kind of just attract the worried whale, to be honest. You get people who are not going to have a lot of great benefit from getting it, and they may be bumping others who do need it. So I'd like our efforts to really be on communities that were neglected. We saw this in the previous waves. It's harder to vaccinate some communities, and we have to make more effort there rather than just open up clinics for everyone who can easily get there and who won't have a great marginal benefit from it.

Now, I know it's an unpopular opinion. People don't like to hear this. They really want to be out there, be proactive. I'm going to get my shot. But we have to look at the big picture. Everyone has a role to play in the next phase of our provincial COVID response. It's all hands on deck. And it starts with booster shots.

Nothing matters more than getting these third shots into arms. As we're talking here on Wednesday afternoon, we just found out Ontario will offer a third dose to everyone 18 and over starting Monday. What's your reaction to that? Yeah, I think, you know, it was predictable. We're going to see a lot of provinces say that everyone can get the shot because it placates the public. But again, I think it's not great policy. I think the policy

should be much more targeted. We should do this smarter. It'll be great that we boost a lot more people, but it's not going to make a great marginal difference. So I think it's a bit understandable in Ontario. Ontario has been highly criticized for being slow on everything. So they're trying to get ahead on this one. I understand it politically, but I think scientifically, it doesn't make a lot of sense to do that. I want to talk about rapid tests a bit. You know, the federal government has already bought over 94 million of them and has earmarked 1.7 billion to buy even more. On Wednesday, Alberta promised to make them available for free. And we're talking just before Ontario details how it'll handle them out in public. So how, in your

mind, should provinces actually be using their rapid tests right now? Well, they should have been available much sooner. We've really been laggards on testing in Canada, especially rapid testing. So they have a real utility, I think, especially in workplaces, parties, for example. I think the practical way to use it now is, say you're having a Christmas party, you're having 10 people, get all 10 of them to do a little quick swab before you get together. And that gives you some comfort. They're not 100% accurate, but it's the way I think they're going to be used in Canada. So then the question becomes, how do you distribute them and how do you distribute them fairly? So provinces like Nova Scotia are distributing them in stores, for example, you can pick up anywhere. Ontario is giving five tests to every school child. Quebec's doing something similar. So there's various ways of doing this.

But, you know, we have to make these things available. But I'm worried that this has become the latest fad. This is going to be the thing that solves the pandemic. And it's just one more little tool that we have to use among many. Yeah. I mean, is there a problem if we start using rapid tests for everything? Well, they have a limitation. A rapid test tells you who's infectious. It doesn't tell you who's infected. You still have to do the PCR testing. So there is some utility for it. But again, I worry that people put too much faith in,

oh, I have a rapid test, so I can go nuts. I can do whatever. I can go dancing with 5,000 people. You know, that's the concern. And I want to talk a bit about the future of public health here. So experts have long predicted that COVID, you know, won't disappear. The cases will just get less severe and it'll eventually circulate more like a cold or a flu. So we call that an endemic disease. If the indications Omicron cases are less severe are right, at what point do we forget about the pandemic measures we talked about and treat COVID, you know, more like a flu?

Yeah, so it's a good question. You know, there's not a clear line on when something becomes endemic. Politically, it's essentially when we come to accept a certain amount of death, right? That's the crude way to put it. We don't like to think of it in that terms, but that's how we've come to think of the flu. 3,500, 5,000 people die of the flu every year. My answer to that is often, well, maybe we should be rethinking that. Maybe COVID has taught us some lessons. Maybe we shouldn't just accept that thousands of older people die of the flu each year. We virtually eliminated the flu last year with our pandemic measures. So can we retain some of that?

So, you know, going forward, I can't imagine why we would ever go into hospitals or a nursing home without wearing a mask, regardless of whether COVID is endemic or not. There's just so many benefits to it. So I think, I hope this has some lasting impacts, makes us think differently of how much death and illness we accept in society without second thought. And you mentioned we're making some of the same mistakes we made with COVID in 2020. So what does the way we're handling Omicron tell us about how ready we are for future pandemics? I think, you know, Omicron is another test.

It's almost a test of how we're going to deal with the next pandemic. And it's not comforting at all, I don't think. You know, we've been impacted a lot by COVID. There's been more than 5.3 million deaths around the world. But it could have been much, much worse, right? This is not a really most people who get this virus don't get sick or die. Imagine something much more deadly, something that spreads more readily through the air, you know, an Ebola that spreads in an airborne fashion, there would be not 5 million deaths, there'd be 50 million or 100 million.

That's, I think, what potentially lies in our future. So I think we, I hope we've learned from COVID that we have to act more swiftly, that we can't assume that everything's going to be okay. So I worry that the next pandemic will actually be much worse and we won't be any more better prepared. Andre, thank you so much for this. It's been really great to chat with you today.

Well, thank you. Sorry for being so depressing, but there you go. So shortly after Andre and I spoke on Wednesday afternoon, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced significant changes to the province's COVID policy. We will meet this new enemy with full force, because right now the best defense is a lightning fast offense. right now, the best defense is a lightning fast offense. We mentioned how everyone 18 and up will be eligible to book their booster starting Monday. But the province is also shortening the time Ontarians need to wait after their first two doses from six months to three months. In a testing blitz, the province says it will give out up to two million free rapid tests between now and mid-January. They'll be passed out at pop-ups in places like malls, libraries, and some LCBOs.

And finally, Ontario is putting capacity limits on large venues like sports stadiums. Any indoor venue larger than 1,000 people will be capped at 50%, so only half-packed Raptors games. That's all for today. I'm Angela Starrett. Thanks so much for listening to FrontBurner. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.