Front Burner - Brexit is still a mess

Episode Date: March 15, 2019

A few months ago we did an episode on Brexit. We talked about how the whole Brexit process has been a mess. Well, it's still a mess. This week there were three votes in the UK parliament. First, MPs voted down Prime Minister Theresa May's new Brexit deal with the EU. Then they said no to leaving the European Union without a deal in place. Then they voted to delay making a decision. Today on Front Burner, CBC's London reporter Thomas Daigle breaks down what is going on and what is at stake for the United Kingdom.

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The news is changing every day, and so is their show. Subscribe to Today Explained now. You can find it on your favorite podcast app or wherever you get FrontBurner. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. So a few months back, we did this episode on Brexit. We talked about how the whole Brexit process has really been a mess. Well, it's still a mess. It's official. MPs have voted in favour of delaying Brexit. That means May will now have to go to the EU to see whether it will agree to an extension.

Will they or won't they say yes? Well, like so many things to do with Brexit, the answer is we don't know yet. This week, there were three votes in the UK Parliament. First, MPs said no to Theresa May's new Brexit deal with the EU. I profoundly regret the decision that this House has taken tonight. But then they said no to leaving the European Union without a deal in place. The Prime Minister said the choice was between

her deal and no deal. In the last 24 hours, Parliament has decisively rejected both her deal and no deal. And then they just voted to delay making a decision at all. My colleague Thomas Dagla is here. He's in London and he's going to help explain all of this. This is FrontBurner.

Hi, Thomas. Hey, Jamie. So we're talking late Thursday afternoon here in Canada, but late evening, your time. What happened today? Yeah, MPs here decided to not make any decision yet, kind of just to kick the can down the road. The ayes to the right, 412. The noes to the left, 202. So the ayes have it. The ayes have it. Unlock. They have empowered the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, to ask the EU to delay Brexit.

We've been having this countdown in Britain for two years now, knowing that March 29th, 2019 was supposed to be Brexit Day. But now it looks like it's probably going to be at least a few months down the road. At least that is what MPs have asked their prime minister to do. Right. And you mentioned that now Theresa May has to go and ask the EU if they can have this delay. Like, is the EU going to say yes to this? Is that a sure deal? It's not sure. It is likely that the EU would approve this three-month delay that Theresa May wants initially, but she also wants her Brexit deal approved. There is no guarantee that will happen. And if it doesn't, she's probably going to ask for a much longer delay.

Therefore, the House has to understand and accept that if it is not willing to support a deal in the coming days, and as it is not willing to support leaving without a deal on the 29th of March, then it is suggesting that there will need to be a much longer extension to Article 50. Which could keep Britain strapped in the European Union for maybe upwards of two years or more, maybe lead to Brexit being cancelled altogether. That is what the Brexit supporters are scared of. But maybe that's where we're headed. It's absolutely disgusting because the longer we stay in,

the less likely we are to leave. And the majority vote goes out of the window and democracy goes with it. OK, so let's talk about this deal or this plan that she has, because the reason that there is a delay is because the plan that she put forward couldn't pass in Parliament. So what is this plan that didn't pass this week? This is the withdrawal agreement, it's called, that the British government agreed to with the European Union. It's been put to votes in the British Parliament twice. It failed both times. The ayes to the right, 202.

The noes to the left, 432. The ayes to the right, 242. The noes to the left, 391. And the sticking point is something called the backstop. Now, I don't want to put you to sleep here, but it's a really tricky series of measures contained in this Brexit deal that is meant to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which is continuing as an EU member. So Brexit supporters have issues with this backstop because they say it would keep Britain in the EU's orbit for years to come. So what happened this week is Theresa May went to meet the EU officials in France, the European Commission president, tried to get a legal

assurance that the UK wouldn't be trapped in this backstop. It cannot become a permanent arrangement and it is not the template for our future relationship. The deal that MPs voted on in January was not strong enough in making that clear and legally binding changes were needed to set that right. Today, we have agreed them. But clearly, it wasn't enough

to get the backing of Brexiteers and we still are at the same place we were just last week, really. Why is it such a big deal if there's a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland? There are two reasons why it would be really tricky to have the so-called hard border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the EU member state, the Republic of Ireland. First of all, there's the political reality, which is the fact that Ireland remains a member of the EU. Northern Ireland, part of the UK, is not going to be part

of the EU. And there's trade that's going to go between those two neighbours. It's going to continue to flow across this so far invisible border. This is us just crossing again, right here. That's us in the UK again. So that's about three crossings and maybe two kilometers? Yeah, yeah. And how do you police trade across an invisible border? Especially when the UK is going to have its own trade rules and the EU is going to continue to have its own? It is, as Gerry Duffy says, personal. Even like my son, he's a delivery driver. He delivers sandwiches Duffy says, personal. Even like my son, he's a delivery driver. He delivers sandwiches around petrol stations, around the border. And the run he has mostly is in the north. He works for a company in the south. If all this thing kicks off, he doesn't know, will they have a job?

And there is the whole historic dimension to all this. When you consider the troubles, historic dimension to all this. When you consider the troubles, the violence that erupted for years in Northern Ireland, there is a real belief, and I can tell you this from speaking to people in Londonderry or Derry in Northern Ireland, there's a real fear there. They live near the border, and as soon as any type of border infrastructure goes up, it is really believed there that hardline Irish dissidents are going to shoot at the border. The law of unintended consequences has been one of the main laws of Irish history going back centuries.

Nothing works out the way people expect it to work out. Why? Infrastructure goes up because of a deep-seated belief among many in Northern Ireland that it should be part of a united Ireland across the entire island. And a belief that the British divided that island in two and that they have no reason to be there. So the Good Friday Agreement allowed Irish nationalists to live as if they lived in a united Ireland. In doing what we have done today, we have carried out what I believe to be the will of the overwhelming majority of people here in Northern Ireland.

The chance to live in peace. The chance to raise children out of the shadow of fear. That is all that the people of Northern Ireland have ever asked for. A border would break up that whole peace process and could cause real trouble. We've given the basis of the work, but we cannot make it work. That requires the parties, their leaders, their supporters to do that in the time ahead. But let them remember it was hard to achieve, hard work by them. Let's not relinquish it now or for never. So essentially, a hard border could take Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland back to where they were before this peace.

It's incredibly important. And many observers say that this was not taken into account when the Leave campaign promised an easy Brexit ahead of the 2016 referendum. It has turned out to be the sticking point that has ground this whole process to a halt. So Theresa May has put forward a solution on Ireland that avoids this hard border. So why can't she just get this thing passed? The big problem is no one can agree on what form of Brexit this country should have, can agree on what form of Brexit this country should have, how to exit and whether to keep ties to the European Union or whether they want a hard Brexit without any deal and get out at the end of this month. Theresa May has been trying to pander to both sides and scare both sides,

basically, into agreeing to her deal. She's been trying to tell the hard Brexiteers that, look, if you don't agree to this deal, we're going to end up with a long Brexit delay, maybe no Brexit at all. The danger for those of us who want to deliver, to have faith with the British public and deliver on their vote for Brexit, is that if this vote is not passed tonight, if this deal is not passed, then Brexit could be lost. But at the same time, she's been saying and repeated this week, a bad deal would be even worse than no deal. In other words, I'm

ready to agree to no deal at all. That's a way to scare the EU into giving her concessions. Clearly, it hasn't worked. So is this game of chicken? It feels like this. That's what she's playing. Is it is it going to work when it comes to getting her own party in control? Well, so far, it has not. If you look at the results of the votes this week, you had conservative MPs from the ruling party, even government ministers abstaining or voting against a government motion going directly against the prime minister's wishes. She hopes that this game of chicken is going to now work, especially when she puts these Brexit supporters within her own party up against the wall,

saying either you get a long Brexit delay, perhaps no Brexit at all, or my deal. And that could force them to say, well, it's the best of two bad situations. We'll vote for your deal. We'll get out of here now. Right. I read one quote from an MP in our party that said, essentially, this is the best turd that we have right now. But I have to tell you, it is a choice I do not want to have to make. Between, and if you'll excuse my language, Mr. Speaker,

a turd of a deal, which has now been taken away and polished, and is now a polished turd. But it might be the best turd that a deal, which has now been taken away and polished and is now a polished turd, but it might be the best turd that we've got before us. And that gives you a sense of how people are talking about this. British people are so funny. That's not really parliamentary language, but that's how people are talking about this. That's how crazy it's become. So I don't want to turn this conversation into a version of a flowchart. I've seen these Brexit flowcharts. Some of them are a little bit easier to understand than others. But can you rattle off

some possible outcomes for me in the next few months? Like what could potentially happen here? Well, next week, Theresa May is going to come back to the House of Commons and try to put her deal to a vote for a third time. She hopes third time's a charm. And if it's approved, she's going to go to the EU next week and ask for a three-month Brexit extension, which means Britain would leave the EU at the end of June. which means Britain would leave the EU at the end of June. But next week, her third vote on the same deal, if it fails again, that's when she's going to have to turn to the EU and say, hey, we need a longer extension. And she's not said how long that's going to be, but it's probably in the ballpark of a couple of years as the UK figures out what to do.

If that two year extension becomes a reality, that's when you're looking at something like a general election, perhaps a second referendum. That is not in the cards right now, but it becomes a whole lot more likely if by the end of this month, there is still no deal. Is it also possible that they just can't get their act together and make a decision on anything. And then they are just all of a sudden not part of the EU. This notion of a hard Brexit everybody keeps. At some point, does the EU just say, forget it, like no more extensions. It's done. That could happen this month. It could happen in three months because there's no clear indication when or if MPs here could agree to a deal. And if they don't, the UK could still very well crash out without a deal by accident at the end of this month, especially if one of the

27 EU member states says, hey, I want to make an example of you. I'm not going to give you a deal. I'm not going to give you an extension. You deal with this on your own. And if one of them says nope, even if at the 11th hour, if one of them says nope, even at the 11th hour, if one of them says no, then that's it for Britain. It's looking more and more like a no-deal crash out. Okay. So if there was a crash out, that seems like the worst case scenario. What would happen? The thing about a no-deal Brexit is it's a jump into the unknown. No one has tried to leave the European Union, let alone leave without a divorce deal. So business groups across the country have been screaming at the top of their lungs for

months, for a couple of years now, really, that jobs would be lost, prices would go up, wages would go down, etc., etc. If there's a no-deal Brexit, we at Airbus will have to make potentially very harmful decisions for the UK. Please don't listen to the Brexiteers' madness which asserts that because we have huge plans here, we will not move and we will always be here. They are wrong. Companies that have production models that use parts and services from the European side and from Britain would not know what to do. There are contingency plans in place.

Both government agencies and companies have been trying to plan for the event of a no-deal Brexit. But the warnings every day, I can tell you from living here, here on the radio, watch TV, look at social media, the warnings every day are dire. The government even paid for signs on bus shelters here in London to say, hey, are you ready for Brexit, just in case things go bad at the end of the month. Hospitals and ambulance services have warned of a possible shortage of supplies.

Farms could be on the brink of collapse, according to the National Farmers Union, and a committee of MPs said no deal would be a disaster for the UK's food and drink industry. Some politicians that are in favour of leaving, are in favour of Brexit, say that a hard Brexit would be bad for the country in the short term, but better in the long term. What's the argument there? Brexit was built on the notion of taking back control. And essentially, it's this idea of rebuilding a British empire. They call it global Britain in 2019. But it would be to strike trade deals with countries such as Canada, the United States, China, deals that Britain cannot strike right now, because it's

a member of the European Union and the EU has its own trade deals. So the UK wants to break free. You know, speaking to the Brexit supporters across this country over the past couple of years, the one thing you hear again and again is, well, we're an island nation. We've gone on our own for many years before. We can do it again. It's this notion of independence, gaining something back, which, you know,

you might think it's like make America great again. It's not unlike that at all. I want democracy, freedom for my grandchildren and great-grandchildren. That's why I'm here. It won't affect me that much because I'm ready to go. But for my children and grandchildren and great-grandchildren, I want to keep Britain British. Can you unpack that a little bit more for me, how it's like a make America great again? Many of the people who voted for Donald Trump voted for the notion of taking America back to the glory of yesteryear, taking it back to pre-globalization. glory of yesteryear, taking it back to pre-globalization. And that is the same sort of power that pushed so many people in this country to vote for Brexit.

Remember, the slogan was take back control. Like, again, hearkening back to another time, like something was better before the EU. Sack the apes, drain the swamp. the EU. And it's not uncommon to see once in a while Make America Great Again hats at Brexit rallies. I saw one just yesterday outside the parliament. People were holding up signs outside the parliament demanding a no deal Brexit and get on with Brexit. And someone had a red Make America Great Again hat. Donald Trump himself predicted, and he was asked about it today. He said, I didn't support Brexit, but I predicted it. It wasn't that I was a supporter.

I predicted it was going to happen, and I was right. And people laughed when I predicted it. And I will tell you, I'm surprised at how badly it's all gone from the standpoint of a negotiation. This notion of independence, of hearkening back to some greater time, it's something populist leaders around the globe have been grabbing onto in recent years. What do all the complications you just told me about tell us about the practical reality of actually pursuing these kind of goals? kind of goals. Well, whether you say make America great again or take back control, whether it's Brexit or Trump, it's all about going back to a previous greatness, some other time when this country had more power. That was pre-globalization, pre-technological advances. And it's like that

time has passed. Brexit has shown how difficult it is to go back to something that has been lost and rather than embracing what's already there now. Thomas, thank you so much for taking us through this today. And I have a feeling we'll probably be talking to you again soon. Okay, you're welcome. Thanks. So that's all for today. FrontBurner comes to you from CBC News and CBC Podcasts. The show is produced by Chris Berube, Elaine Chao, Shannon Higgins, and Abby Plenner, with help from Aisha Barmania. Very special thanks this week to Sylvia Thompson, Gabriello Yanello, Laura Antonelli, Carlos Van Leeuwen, and Dan Hudson. Derek Vanderwyk is our sound designer. Our music is by Joseph Chavison of Boombox Sound.

The executive producer of FrontBurner is Nick McCabe-Locos. And I'm your host, Jamie Poisson. Thanks for listening, and see you Monday. slash podcasts. It's 2011 and the Arab Spring is raging. A lesbian activist in Syria starts a blog. She names it Gay Girl in Damascus. Am I crazy? Maybe. As her profile grows, so does the danger. The object of the email was, please read this while sitting down. It's like a genie came out of the bottle and you can't put it back. Gay Girl Gone, available now.