Front Burner - Brexit's lessons for Alberta

Episode Date: October 5, 2026

Ten years ago, Britain voted 52 per cent to 48 per cent to leave the European Union. The result reshaped British politics, triggered years of negotiations and remains deeply contested a decade later. Now, as Alberta prepares to vote on whether to begin a process that could eventually lead to separation from Canada, there are obvious differences between the two situations, but also some striking parallels.We hear from three people who experienced Brexit from very different perspectives: a former Conservative MP who supported leaving the EU, an Alberta separatist who says independence needs a concrete plan, and a Brexit scholar who warns that the political fallout from a referendum can last for years.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

Listen to this paid content by Beneva, now on CBC Listen. There are many factors that need to be considered in business. Experience and information can help you make informed decisions. Join host Catherine Duranso and her guests, as they deep dive into the world of insurance and financial products. From claim prevention, consumer psychology, and organizational health, each episode gives you real-life examples and practical advice. Tune in to Beneva's brand new Ask the Experts podcast to learn more. This is a CBC podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson.

We are approaching one of the biggest decisions this country will face in our lifetimes, whether to remain in a reformed European Union or to leave. Ten years ago, British Prime Minister David Cameron asked the people of the United Kingdom to vote on whether or not they wanted to leave the European Union. This will be your decision. And when the choice comes, you'll have an important choice to make about our country's destiny. And though Cameron had many, many complaints about the EU,

there's too much interference, too much bossiness from Brussels, and we need to deal with that. He insisted that he wanted to stay and campaigned for the remains side. The choice is in your hands, but my recommendation is clear. I believe that Britain will be safer stronger and better off in a reformed European Union. We know how that ended. Britain voted 52-48 to leave.

David Cameron resigned. The country's been living with the decision ever since. My fellow Albertans, tonight I wish to speak with you about the debate we're having in this province on the future of Alberta and Canada. Fast forward a decade, and what's happening in Alberta feels a bit familiar. Kicking the can down the road only prolongs a very emotional and important debate. And musseling the voices of hundreds of thousands of Albertans wanting to be heard is

unjustifiable in a free and democratic society. It's time to have a vote. Understand the will of Albertans on this subject and move on. Premier Daniel Smith has called a referendum that puts the prospect of separation on the ballot. On October 19th, Albertans have two options, vote to stay in Canada, or vote to hold another binding referendum on leaving the country. And despite Smith's long held feelings about the feds over in Ottawa. I know how frustrated so many of you have become with our country and the feeling of having politicians living thousands of miles away, passing laws and rules that have cost you your loved ones, jobs, careers, dreams, and opportunities for a brighter future.

She, too, has made her position on the ballot question clear. She wants a strong sovereign Alberta within a United Canada. As most Albertans know, I have repeatedly stated, I do not support Alberta separatist. from Canada. I personally still have hope that there is a path forward for a strong and sovereign Alberta within a United Canada. Parts of both Cameron and Smith's parties push for the vote. Both leaders catered to those factions by making it happen. In both cases, those factions felt held back and made poorer by the body they were pushing to separate from. Immigration played a role in both votes too, and in both cases, the more extreme ends of the movements veered into

nativism. Sitting front row for both pivotal votes was Mark Carney, then governor of the Bank of England, now Prime Minister of Canada. I saw firsthand what happened in the United Kingdom. When the view was, vote for this, it'll be soft, and then we'll negotiate, et cetera, and they end up. And they're still 10 years later trying to undo what people didn't think they were voting for, but what they ended up having. And look, there's so many differences between these referendums too. Like the UK was an already independent country leaving a political and economic union, while Alberta is a promise that has never existed outside of the Federation of Canada. The UK was voting to straight up leave, while Alberta's referendum question is voting on whether or not to have a

binding vote on leaving. And in the UK, the polls were pretty close and got closer in the lead-up to the Brexit vote. Well, in Alberta, the polls have not been particularly close at all. And lately, they've been drifting further apart. Still, people from all sides of these issues see lessons that can be drawn from Brexit in Alberta now. And we want to hear from them. So today, three lessons from Brexit for Alberta from three very different perspectives. Lesson number one, don't condescend. You know, the UK, by the time we left the EU, about two-thirds of our laws would be made in Brussels and by people who were largely not elected, not accountable to the British electorate. And that didn't sit very well with me in a lot of the people I represented.

This is Andrew Percy. He was a conservative member of the British Parliament from 2010, pre-Brexit, to 2024. And while that two-thirds number has been disputed, it was a big talking point. Yes, I was one of the ones who there were about 100. 10 of us who rebelled in a vote on the Queen's speech, which is the government's agenda, I think in like 2013 or 14, to call for a referendum on the EU. And that subsequently went into the Conservative Party's manifesto in 2015, and we won that election, and therefore we called the referendum.

Percy was a committed lever, and he found the Remain campaign in Britain at the time a bit insulting. In the Brexit referendum, I'm afraid for them, the Remain side, stay in the EU side, just kept doubling down on these, you know, alarming predictions of what just people by the end just kind of thought, well, I don't believe any of this. This is just now ridiculous the things they're saying. The idea that, and also it felt like bullying and a bit patronising, like if you dare to vote to leave the EU, we're going to cut your local hospital services, will cut the NHS, we'll tax you more. They even said that we're going to have to put up tax on alcohol. So, you know, it was this strange thing of vote to leave the EU and we'll punish you with a

punishment budget that will cut your health services, raise your taxes, and put the price of a pint of beer up, it just became so ridiculous by the end that a lot of people looked at and thought, I'm sorry, this is, this project fear is just not going to work. Project Fear was a term used by Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers to accuse the Remain side of essentially scaremongering. Today, the most apocalyptic predictions of the failed Remain campaign haven't come to pass. But 10 years later, a clear majority of Brits think Brex was a mistake. Not Percy, though. Of course, people who never wanted Brexit, which was largely most of the establishment in the UK and certainly most elected officials, and they continue to push

this nonsense that Brexit has been a disaster. And you say to them, but why? And they can't really point to anything. Because actually, the UK economy has outperformed the economies of France and Germany in all of the quarters combined since we voted to leave the European Union. So it's fine for people to, you know, in their cocktail parties and all the rest of it, run around because they never wanted Brexit saying how terrible it's all being. But actually, the data and the metrics don't support that. The evidence isn't there to support that. You know, and when you add COVID into the mix as well and all the rest of it, it's pretty much impossible to say what would have happened if we hadn't voted to leave the EU. I'll note here that economists largely disagree with that assessment. They believe Brexit hurt Britain's economic performance.

though it is difficult to disentangle the impact from COVID. Today, Percy lives in Vancouver. He's a VP at Crest View Strategy. And though he's glad the UK left the EU, he wants Alberta to stay a part of Canada. So he offers this advice from his own experience. One of the biggest criticisms that was leveled at the Remain campaign and the Brexit referendum was that they were a bit patronising. And, you know, it was almost like people who were going to vote to leave are too stupid.

they're ill-educated, you know, they're all racist. And people felt like they were being taught down to, almost like saying to people, you're too stupid to know what's good for you. And I think, you know, for those of us who do want to keep the country together, I think the lessons that should be learned from that is don't patronise people for daring to have a different view. Don't be rude about them. Don't talk down to them.

You need to make the argument for why, you know, Alberta should stay in Federation, or why the UK should stay in the EU without. being patronizing and dismissive of people who have genuine concerns about the way things are running on and don't feel invested in the system. There was a moment this summer when Percy was worried that the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, hadn't learned that lesson from Brexit. I will say, I will make the following observation, though, about the question. And this is an observation from experience. In these separation issues, it is often advanced that vote for this and it's a free option.

vote for this and we will strengthen our hand in a future negotiation. That is a very dangerous bluff. That is a very dangerous bluff. Yeah, dangerous bluff. That was it. Yes, dangerous bluff. Now, I think that's, you know, I think that's an unfortunate use of language and I don't think it's going to work on people who you're trying to convince right by. It almost sends a message like, you know, you're, you're being hoodwinked, you're not bright enough to figure it out. So I was a bit fearful at the beginning that maybe some of those lessons, hadn't been learned, but I think probably now they have, because you are seeing a very positive narrative about Alberta, Canada, working in partnership, delivering for the economy, you know, all the oil and gas stuff, pipelines, all the rest of it. So maybe lessons have been learned.

Today, we're ready to move forward for Albertans, for Canadians. And I'm proud to announce that the government of Canada is officially listing the West Coast pipeline, now known as Pacific Link, as a project of national interest. There we go. All right. Well, I'd say for starters, look at Brexit, and obviously they weren't bluffing. This is Corey Morgan.

He's the founder of Pathway to Independence, a third-party advertising group in this referendum, and a longtime supporter of Alberta Independence. Heat-clocked Carney's dangerous bluff comment to. It's not a bluff. So he hasn't learned one of the lessons from Brexit, which is not to underestimate where people may go when given the choice on the Democratic option.

I think, though I don't want to give them good tips, the federalist side should take a little care with how they're approaching things with the current campaign in Alberta, because I've seen a lot of parallels from that back then, and they might not be turning the populace the way they think they are. Typical grassroots citizens don't like being talked down to.

They don't like being told how to vote. Morgan thinks there's something that's getting missed in a lot of the mainstream understanding of the separatist side. It's the depth of frustration, the sense of futility, and not understanding that it's the system. That's what the committed people to the independence movement have come to a conclusion of. It's not a matter of which party happens to be in power, though that tends to be a flashpoint if conservatives lose elections. It's not a matter of another nationalized pipeline gets built to a coast, though that's a matter of. turned into a symbol of showing the economic blockage in trying to get things out from Alberta, but it's something much bigger and they want to see real change. I don't think they understand

that this isn't just a short-term protest movement. I read another article dismissing this is, these are just the remnants of the truckers convoy and they're just upset about vaccinations and things. Certainly there's some of those people who are upset within the independence movement, but no, it is much more than that. And there's a level of, of engagement that's happened that we never had before. And it's a change in the Alberta culture altogether that's really been fascinating to watch. Unlike the former MP, Andrew Percy, Morgan is not convinced that Brexit has been a success. The people voted. They got it across the line, but then they took their hands off the steering wheel and put it back into the hands of the

political parties. And then that ended up driving the whole motion off the cliff anyways. And And you had sort of a half-ass Brexit, which was potentially more damaging than the status quo. But I don't think that was the intent. So he thinks the Alberta independence movement can learn from that. Lesson number two. The lesson is to make sure you have a plan. It has to be more than just voting out. You've got to be voting yourself into something.

What are you looking to create? We already know what we don't like. Okay, that's fine. And we've identified that. That's a useful tool in getting people upset and engaged. but you still must be voting for something. How would we move this structure, this system after a independence vote into a new one? How would we work towards negotiations?

How would we build a new sort of system or something like that? Having that framework in place could keep people guided productively rather than just scattered after a yes vote. Now we know saying now what? And moving towards that actual transition to a new independent state. After the break, the third and final last, lesson, one that three very different perspectives all agree on. Listen to this paid content by Beneva, now on CBC Listen. There are many factors that need to be considered in business.

Experience and information can help you make informed decisions. Join host Catherine Duranso and her guests as they deep dive into the world of insurance and financial products. Flame prevention, consumer psychology, and organizational health. Each episode gives you real-life examples and practical advice. Tune in to Beneva's brand new Ask the Experts podcast to learn more. The following is paid content for Desjardin. Lately, it feels like everyone has a take on Gen Z.

There's a misconception that everybody in our generation wants things handed to them, which is so unfair. A lot of the circumstances that other generations got to have, we simply do not have. So when Dejerdin asked me to go out and hear directly from young people, I was all in. Because between sky-high rent, $10 lottes and the AI Revolution got a lot to impact. We went out to see what Gen Z's reality actually looks like and we made a web series out of it. It'll be on CBC Gem.

It's called Count Us In. And honestly, I think you guys are going to love it. Well, I have to be honest, I had a feeling of deja vu. This is Ian Cooper. He was born in Alberta. Now he lives in Ireland, where he's a senior research fellow at the Dublin City University Brexit Institute. He wants Alberta to remain in Canada, just as he wanted the UK to stay in the European Union. And even though his opinion is the majority opinion in Alberta, he's not entirely at ease.

There's definitely a risk of complacency. I think that to be fair, in the case of the Brexit referendum, the turnout was quite high. I mean, it was over 70%, as I recall. But even so, there are a lot of people who probably didn't bother to vote because they thought, oh, well, then the the remain side is going to win. The polls in the UK were super tight, neck and neck, in the lead-up to that vote. But the sort of dominant cultural narrative was that the status quo would ultimately prevail. And so you might have a similar dynamic in Alberta. People assume that the vote to stay or the vote to not start the process to leave will win,

and so they won't bother to go out and vote. And so that is definitely a danger. And I think that another related point is, we haven't really talked about the nature of the ballot question, right? The fact that it's not a direct yes, no question on separation, that might give voters who are on the fence a feeling that, oh, well, we've got nothing to lose. We'll just vote to start the process. And then that way, even if they don't necessarily want separation, they want to say. send a message to Ottawa and strengthen the Alberta government's hand in its dealing with Ottawa.

And so that lens is quite a dangerous outcome, I think. And I think that this also happened with Brexit because people voted in favor of Brexit. I don't think they really realized that that meant outright that the United Kingdom was just going to leave the European Union. And they weren't going to get another chance to vote later. and there was a long kind of debate about whether there should be a second referendum on the terms of Brexit, which never happened. And so at the time, it wasn't entirely clear that a vote to leave was really a vote to leave in the case of Brexit.

And you have the similar dynamic here that people might think that it's kind of, it gives them a free pass to kind of take a kick at the federal government. This brings us to lesson number three. Don't think this ends on referendum day. The lesson of the Brexit referendum is it can become incredibly ugly and incredibly toxic, very, very fast. That as soon as the vote happened, people were calling each other traitors and morons. And it led to more polarization. It led to people taking sides much more so than they had before.

And in fact, these political identities of being a left. leave or remainer, these became the central kind of political divisions in Britain for years afterwards. It led to an extremely toxic political culture for years afterwards. And I would warn that that could happen in Alberta too. Corey Morgan, the separatist, feels that toxicity is already here. I've never seen anything like I've seen in this last four or five months. The amount of F you trader, hang the traders, you're scum, you're this, you're that. I mean, we see that in politics both ways. He thinks that the dynamic might be obscuring the level of support for his side in this.

I think there's still a lot more closeted independent support than people understand and realize. And near the early part when I started my third party advertising group, it really showed that when a gentleman donated $1,000 right off the bat to our TPA, very enthusiastic with what we're doing and everything else. I said, that's wonderful. Can we get a sign out on your lawn? No, no, I can't do that. I don't want to have my neighbors to see it. So if a person will reach into their wallet and spend $1,000, which I imagine he's

of more means than me, but still, it's a significant chunk of change. Yet doesn't we even want to put a sign on their lawn? The support that you don't see could be a lot stronger out there than a lot of people realize. But even if Morgan's side loses, he says he's not giving up. What would I do the day after? Well, I'd sleep because I'm tired as hell. It's been a long campaign. but then we'd have to do like Quebec did.

As I still committed, dedicated independent supporter, how do we create the winning conditions then? I mean, I respect democracy. How do I convince that other 30% of people that we need to get it over the line to choose the same option as us? I don't feel that they have to be forced. I feel they have to be convinced. I hate to shatter those hopes,

but the hardcore is like me, and there's that 20 to 30% of us that are there. We're not going to stop the day after. The issue doesn't go away. the advice I would offer then, though, if they want it to go away, that something has to change in the system because the irritating factors don't go away, even if a majority of people vote against this on October 19th. They have to be looking, I think, critically at stuff just as I am. What can we do to make sure that in that case, Corey Morgan doesn't get enough people to vote for

60% for independence down the road? What are these irritants can we get rid of so that this doesn't gain steam and we don't have to face this every five years until eventually an independence thing comes. That's in their court at that point. Former conservative MP, Andrew Percy, agrees to. The referendum is obviously going to be defeated relatively comprehensively. That's what the polling would suggest. I have a sneaky suspicion that the vote to leave might be a bit higher than many people are expecting, but we shall see. But I think just because the referendum will be lost doesn't mean this sentiment goes away, right? I think the referendum doesn't necessarily lands to boil or get rid of any of that.

I think that movement will remain. And I think a lot of people haven't yet really taken cognizance of that. I think, you know, that would be the biggest takeaway would be, you know, don't think the referendum ends this. You have to keep fighting for your cause, if the cause is, you know, unity after the referendum. Alberta goes to the polls on Monday, October 19. I'll be there the weekend before to hear the big final pitch from both the Alberta independence crowd and the United Canada side. And stay tuned next week when we talk about the other nine, that's right, nine, important questions that are on the referendum ballot.

That's all for today, though. I'm Jamie Poisson. Talk to you again tomorrow. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca.ca slash podcasts.