Front Burner - Can Ukraine win without U.S. money?

Episode Date: December 12, 2023

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is heading to Washington to make a desperate plea for weapons, as a $60 billion military aid package for Ukraine is tangled up in U.S. domestic politics. Meanwhile, trench warfare with Russia grinds on. With international support faltering, and a failed counter-offensive, can Ukraine win its war with Russia? Francis Farrell, a reporter with The Kyiv Independent, details Ukraine’s dire situation. For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Damon Fairless. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to be in Washington today. He's meeting Joe Biden at the White House and then speaking with lawmakers. This visit comes at a critical time in Ukraine's war with Russia.

For nearly two years, Ukraine has depended on support from the U.S. and other Western allies. But the billions of dollars coming from the U.S. is at risk of running out. As a $60 billion package President Biden wants to send to Ukraine gets tangled up in a political tug of war. This cannot wait. Congress needs to pass supplemental funding for Ukraine before they break for the holiday resources. It's as simple as that. Frankly, I think it's stunning that we've gotten to this point in the first place. While Congress, Republicans and Congress are willing to give Putin the greatest gift he could hope for. Elena Zelenska, Ukraine's first lady, told the BBC on Sunday that this U.S. aid is the difference between life and death for Ukrainians. We cannot get tired of the situation because

otherwise we will die. And if the world gets tired, they will simply let us die. And given what is happening, this danger that the aid will slow down constitutes a mortal danger to us. Despite fierce fighting in recent months, the front line has barely moved. Russia has stepped up its missile attacks on Kyiv in the past few days, and Volodymyr Zelensky is facing tough questions at home over his leadership. Francis Farrell is a reporter with the Kyiv Independent Newspaper, and he joins me now to talk about this. Hey, Francis, thanks so much for coming on the show. Appreciate it.

Yeah, great to be here. Thank you. Okay, so let's start off with money because Ukraine is quite dependent on funding, in particular from the states. And there's, I guess, the potential for that U.S. funding to dry up. The U.S. has sent billions of dollars to Ukraine since the beginning of the war, but the $60 billion or so in new money that Biden wants to send to the Ukraine has been hung up now by lawmakers in Washington. So I guess my first question really is, what would the end of U.S. funds mean for Ukraine's war effort? I mean, it's the kind of darkest question at the moment going around in Ukraine. But there was a

Washington Post article about this recently about how actually most of these funds, they don't go straight into Ukraine's coffers. they actually go to american defense companies first and foremost for the weapons and the ammunition that goes to ukraine with which obviously ukraine is fighting this war and we've seen this trend over time where slowly and surely stocks of soviet made munitions especially shells shells, air defense missiles, and so on, are slowly drying up. You see this gradual transition towards NATO weaponry, NATO caliber artillery ammunition, and so on. That has become the bread and butter of what Ukraine is fighting this war with at this point. the bread and butter of what Ukraine is fighting this war with at this point. The availability of artillery ammunition is probably one of the most important indicators of which side is going to be

able to conduct offensive operations, how well one side can defend. And I can say that if that just stops coming, it's a pretty simple equation. Ukraine will have to start rationing it and they'll have to use less and less of it. And if it actually runs out, then that's, again, a really dark scenario because Russia will be able to start moving forward and Ukraine won't have anything to hit them with. There's only so much that bravery in this sense can do for you if you don't have any ammunition. Just last week, Biden announced that the U.S. is going to send $175 million in military aid for weapons and equipment. That's previously approved money, and it's what's called a presidential drawdown. So that just basically allows for quick discretionary military funds in kind of emergency situations.

So I'm just curious, you know, how far would that money go, that $175 million? curious, you know, how far would that money go, that $175 million? Normally the scale of it is about half a billion here or a billion here, or perhaps a smaller one would be $200 million. So, you know, in the grand scheme of things, unfortunately, $175 million is definitely one of the smaller packages. And I think Washington did say that this could be one of the last ones, actually, if this extra funding isn't approved. So it definitely doesn't go a very long way, to be honest. Yeah. And we've heard that from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken as well, just that kind of warning that this might be the end of it if there's more funding. They're in a ferocious battle now in the South and the East. We are running out of funding for them,

by the way. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. And, and it's a very, we're in a very strange time at the moment in general with this, we see Zelensky going to Washington now to try and make a final push to,

to get this, to get this passed because unfortunately we're in a kind of state in the war a new paradigm i guess where once it's clear now that ukraine's big counter-offensive on which so much really hinged um kind of failed in the end to to make a strategic difference the the conversation has shifted from one of, okay, a quick Ukrainian victory, or perhaps a stalemate. And now it's a question of, well, we could have a stalemate, Ukraine could continue to hold the line, or if suddenly there's no more ammunition to fight with, it could be Russia who has a very simple road to victory.

And I want to come back to that. But before I do, I want to ask again about the support for Ukraine. So beyond the US, how do things look in terms of international support for Ukraine? Well, beyond the US, obviously, then you have the European partners. And there, again, there is trouble. I mean, Europe has notoriously kind of been complacent with their defense obligations, even within NATO before the full scale war in Ukraine. very much dependent more on the US than on Europe, because Europe just can't provide aid at a rate that matches what the US is giving. And again, here, like, quantitatively, the most important thing is artillery ammunition, and the Europeans have just been really slow scrambling to even start upping production on their end. Of course, they have given a lot of important systems. So a lot of artillery howitzers, self-propelled howitzers, tanks, of course, the Leopards

and the Challengers, and air defense has been crucial as well but again when it comes we're talking about a full scale tussle a numbers game between the military industrial complexes of of russia and the west and unfortunately because there was so much delay in giving and so much reluctance which is still there with some systems to to give give Ukraine the really game-changing systems which it could have quickly won the war with. Now it is really down to a numbers game of artillery shells and drones and people. That's a game which is just a lot harder to fight for Ukraine and one where Russia really seems to have the advantage.

So I'd like to come back to this change in the war. But before I do, let's talk about President Zelensky. He's been a popular leader. I mean, at the outset of the war in particular, he was kind of a rock star in some ways internationally. From the battlefield to the bunker to meeting with heads of state. Over the past 10 months, Volodymyr Zelensky seems to have been everywhere. And it's that fighting spirit, along with Zelensky's decision to remain in Kiev and rally his country, that made him Time

Magazine's pick for person of the year. But in Ukraine right now, where's his popularity? How's he doing there? Surveys have been conducted. And at this point, he still has a high rating of popularity, but it is starting to slip. And when it comes to the trust, that's the interesting one where he's starting to lose in the trust ratings to the army in general, the military in general, and specifically the commander in chief of the military, Valery Zaluzhny. So, I mean, what we see here, there was discussion back and forth about whether or not Ukraine should hold elections, but whether or not that happens, what we are seeing is a return of political competition. And, you know, the end of this kind of completely one-sided idea of complete political unity,

and now the return of a very open and very often very valid criticism towards the country's leadership. Let's talk about some of that criticism. So Vitaly Klitschko, who's the mayor of Kyiv, recently said that Ukraine was drifting towards authoritarianism. So much so that he warned that Ukraine could resemble Russia in the near future, at least politically. And that was with an interview with Swiss media, I think.

What was he referring to? What did he mean? First of all, it's worth mentioning that that itself was a very politicized statement. Definitely not objective because Klitschko himself has been a political and personal rival of Zelensky since a long time ago, since Zelensky came into office. And so, you know, it's kind of in his interest politically to stir the pot. And we don't really know exactly who the main challengers will be in this new political

competition to Zelensky, but Klitschko could well be one of them. But of course, you know, there are elements of a predominantly democratic country and society which come under threat and potentially, usually for good reason, in the case of such an existential war for survival. And then you have to find this middle ground where that's seen by a society as acceptable or already already too dangerous you know for example you have the the consolidation of of television uh channels into this unified 24-hour telemarathon which gives very little in terms of actual useful information about what's going on in the country and this general idea of censorship and propaganda

during wartime unfortunately that ugliness is starting to come more and more up to the surface now. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income?

That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. So we heard last month the head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Zeluzhny, he used the word stalemate to describe the war because it's been nearly impossible for Ukraine to reclaim much territory. In a surprisingly candid essay, Ukraine's top commander, General Valery Zeluzhny,

said Ukraine needs more Western technology to help clear mines, stop Russian drones, and to help build up its own defense industries. And since he said that and referred to it as a stalemate, the tension between Zelensky and President Zelensky has been clear. So I'm curious how that relationship is being perceived in Ukraine. Yeah, so that was indeed the trigger. And since then, we've had Zelenskyy reacted in an interview to The Sun. It was a kind of veiled stab, I guess, at Zeluzhny saying that military people should not get into politics. And he, you know, he openly rebuffed Zeluzhny's, I think, very clear cut and objective observation about how the war looks at the moment. I believe that today, indeed, the situation is difficult. I don't think that this is a stalemate.

Now, Ukrainian media, which is still, most of it is free and quite fair and objective, has started to talk about this openly, you know. And, you know, this tension is understood to be real because it is real. You don't see them taking photos together. You see Zelensky taking photos with the next generals underneath Zeluzhny who are potentially candidates to replace him. And it's just getting worse and worse. This political fragmentation does have implications for the battlefield strategic situations.

Zaluzny is the commander in chief, but Zelensky is the Supreme commander in chief. Peter Bellenhout- Going back to what General Zaluzny said when he made his comment about the war being at a stalemate, he was referring, as you mentioned, to the stalled spring offensive, which began in June and it was really a major operation. And there was a lot riding on it. There were billions of dollars in Western backing, but it really, it really was quite insignificant in terms of the dent it made in the front line. I think, I think Ukraine took something back like 500 square kilometers or something.

So, so I'm curious, is this seen as a military failure there? Yeah, I think, I think at this point everyone is is more or less uh on the same page with that one for a long time while uh you know the official statements were still saying that uh battles and offensive operations are continuing we were all thinking well maybe you know they're on the on on the brink of some kind of breakthrough they've reached this main russian fortified line in the south and maybe they just need one last little push but i think by october uh when we saw russia attack with huge amounts of men and and equipment on avtivka near donetsk uh you know it was pretty clear at that point that they weren't too worried about a Ukrainian attacking breakthrough. And it was around the same time that any progress

whatsoever stalled in the areas where Ukraine was attacking. And, you know, it's worth remembering that indeed this is, you know know maneuver warfare where you break through and surround the opponent has basically come to an end in ukraine for now uh so when we're talking about attacking operations and and gaining territory it's really just one trench at a time, one field at a time, one tree line at a time. It's become very, very hard for both sides. So you mentioned that Russian forces have been focused on Avdiivka just north of Donetsk. Can you tell me what's going on there? Why the focus there? So Avdiivka has a lot of political significance for Russia because it's right outside, I guess, the biggest city in this Donbass region, Donetsk. And it has been this kind of Ukrainian frontline stronghold since the war between these countries started in 2014.

And, you know, over time, Russia made some gains around the city, but they didn't actually, they couldn't push through the city at all, even though it was so close to Donetsk. And now they saw this bulge in the frontline, they saw this Ukrainian salient. And in October, they made a real attempt to quickly surround it. So to capture it in a very quick pincer attack, they sent dozens and dozens of tanks and armoured vehicles to try and overwhelm the Ukrainian defence. But the Ukrainian defence held. These columns of armoured vehicles were destroyed in huge numbers.

So far, the Ukrainians have repelled these assaults, inflicting huge losses on Russia's soldiers. The UK's Ministry of Defence says these are among Russia's biggest casualty rates of the war. But that didn't stop the Russians. They've still got plenty of resources, plenty of warm bodies to throw at the fight. And now what they've been doing plenty of resources plenty of warm bodies to throw at at the fight and now what they've been doing for the last two months is just still attacking but in smaller infantry groups just like they did around Bakhmut so you have a squad of 10 to 20 guys basically just creeping forward some of them are even they're kind of meant to die. Their whole purpose is just to find out where the Ukrainians are firing from. And, you know, again, it comes down to this grinding warfare, bit by bit, tree line by

tree line. So is it essentially that we're looking at a conflict that'll just be, for lack of a better term, a meat grinder for a long time until someone runs out of will and weapons? Is that what we're looking at? I mean, potentially, that's what it has been over all of 2023, basically, if we're being completely honest. And it is an existential struggle for Ukraine

because Russia has made its aim of of you know taking the capital basically ending independent ukraine as as we know it it's it's very clear about that aim and that aim hasn't changed and of course uh for the personalist uh totalitarian country that is that is russia it's for putin it, it seems to be an existential struggle for him as well. I mean, obviously, he went through a lot. He went through a lot of humiliation. He's had to put his whole country on a war footing. He's had a coup almost against him. And he's still going for this and doubling down so it's it's very hard to see how we could reach a point where where one side just decides

we've had enough but I guess that's the most important thing now for Ukraine to to put the pressure back on Russia, because at the moment, unfortunately, Russia's plan of tiring out the West and just grinding down Ukraine in the way they're doing seems to be working pretty well. All right, Francis, thanks so much for taking time to chat. Yeah, thank you. It was a pleasure. All right, that's all for today. I'm Damon Fairless. Thanks for listening to FrontBurner.

And I'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.