Front Burner - China's plans to dominate space

Episode Date: January 8, 2019

"By 2045, China wants to become the strongest space power and space technology-based power in the world," says Namrata Goswami, an expert on China's space program. One step towards that goal is the launch of a research mission to the far side of the moon, where right now a Chinese rover is at work exploring. It was a complicated technological feat, and Goswami says it's just the beginning of the country's plans.

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about hidden disabilities. Short Sighted, from CBC's Personally, available now. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Jamie Poisson. For a long time, China wasn't a huge player in space exploration. They launched a few rockets, sent up an astronaut in 2003. But the last few years, China has really ramped things up. They've put a ton of money into their space program.

And last week, a Chinese probe, the Chang'e 4, landed on the far side of the moon. It's so meaningful. It has so many resources and we have mastered the technology. Nobody's ever done this before. It's super tricky and a really big deal. Even NASA tweeted congratulations. And while this is a very cool science story, there's also something much bigger going on. China says it wants to be the most dominant player in space by 2045.

And when you're the most dominant player, you get to write the rules. So what does that look like? And where does a country like Canada fit in? That's today on FrontBurner. front burner. I'm joined today by Namrata Goswami, who studies global conflict and space. Hi, Namrata. Hi, Jamie. It's a pleasure to be with you. A few days ago, the world watched as China landed a probe on the far side of the moon. The probe landed accurately and steadily, hitting the bullseye. So can you tell me why this was such a big deal? Sure. Technologically, it's an enormous achievement

because mainstream media, there is a mention of the far side as the dark side, not because it's dark or it doesn't receive sunlight, but because we don't know about it. Humanity has never been able to land there before the Chang'e 4. Basically, the far side of the moon consists of craters, and most importantly, it's believed to have resources. And so it's a very exciting feat that China has accomplished on New Year's Eve. Landing on the moon, where does this

fit into China's plans for space? The moon is critical because the moon is the nearest body that you can actually establish presence to then go for deep space exploration. The important link here is that you establish a base on the moon for easy access cost effective access to the asteroid belt uh asteroids have gold asteroids have cobalt asteroids have iron that can then be extracted with a technology that is still not developed but there is the ability to develop that and china's investing in it to then extract those resources and bring them back to the moon, and then to develop the capacity to bring them back to Earth. That's the long term goal for China. So the moon having a lunar base or a lunar palace on the moon is the first step in a much longer strategy of resource extraction for China. of resource extraction for China? So I say this with a measure of seriousness, because sometimes there is a counter argument that this is mostly science fiction,

it's not going to happen. But if you look at what China has done in the last five years, for instance, here on Earth. So last year at Beihang University, they established a lunar palace, a lunar-like structure. Right outside of Yuegongwan, a ca cabin that simulates life in a lunar environment, what's called a bioregenerative life support system. We built some mistakes into the system on purpose to test the sustainability of our lab. Eight students actually lived in that environment for 365 days,

and they actually used their own waste to create a bioregenerative system. Some would say this is very much like the movie Martian, where Matt Damon did a similar thing. That's exactly what I was just thinking about. Yeah. They say that once you grow crops somewhere, you've officially colonized it. So, technically, I colonized Mars. I colonized Mars. So in terms of their goals, they're planning to establish a lunar base by 2030, 2035, between that period. Now interestingly, they're also going to send a robotic probe to the poles of the Moon by 2035.

And that again is interesting because the poles are where you have all the resources and water ice. You do not have that on the near side. Can we talk about why this is such a priority for the Chinese government? I think China's priorities on their space programs, they view these resources as very significant for China's long-term national economic development. One of the biggest concerns for the Chinese Communist Party is that China might run out of resources in the long term. So this is very different, actually, from the discourse you hear in the United States here, where it's much about space science. For China, it's about how space can then go about bringing about national rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

By 2045, China wants to become the strongest space power in the world, meaning it wants to become the leader in space. Once you become the leader, what happens? You're then able to establish norms. You're able to establish governing rules. And I think those are concepts that the Chinese Communist Party are looking at in terms of their space program. The new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics has been clear, and the massive ship of the Chinese nation's rejuvenation is riding the winds and waves.

Let us unite closely, enhance our confidence and overcome difficulties in order to move towards building China into a world leader of science and technology. Are there other places in the world, so not in space, but other places in the world where the Chinese government has pursued this strategy here on Earth? Well, there are two places where you can see a kind of a connection. One is, of course, islands in the South China Sea. The South China Sea islands and the sea there has numerous resources, in fact, millions of dollars worth of oil. China has even gone so far as to construct manmade islands in the area, turning some of them into military bases with runways and missiles. And then Tibet. If you know, in the 1950s turning some of them into military bases with runways and missiles.

And then Tibet. If you know, in the 1950s, the argument given by Mao on Tibet was that if you do not occupy Tibet, China is going to not have access to water. Most of the rivers of China flows from Tibet, the huge mineral resources in Tibet. China has long claimed sovereignty over the country and in 1950 sent in troops. An action Beijing says liberated the region from brutal feudalism. But many Tibetans say it was an invasion. So I think there are similar strategies that China has followed. You identify an area, you see that it's rich in resources,

you develop capacity to extract those resources and to establish presence. And then you argue that because of first presence, you have entitlement rights. Right. And because you were there first, you can write the rules of the game, essentially. Yes, absolutely. One comment from Chinese President Xi Jinping, which I found quite striking. He said that the spirit of aerospace is akin to the spirit of the Long March, which is instrumental in establishing the People's Republic of China in 1949. What are your thoughts on that? That's extremely significant. Another significant factor is that just in last two years, if you look at the promotions that have been

conducted under the Communist Party of China, for instance, promoting governors and mayors of very significant economic provinces and towns and cities. They have been space scientists, and that has not happened before. You didn't have space scientists occupying those positions. And that means that under presidency, the commitment to space and the resources that China brings is going to be long term and is going to continue. The last time that we saw a space race, a race in space, was during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. We've been talking about how China is

putting a lot of resources into space right now. But what about other global superpowers like the U.S. and Russia? So in the United States, the focus on the moon was extremely strong in the 1950s, 60s, 70s, as you know, the famous race to the moon. The U.S. felt that in the battle for ideology and battle for legitimacy and reputation, it's extremely significant to then be somewhere first in space. We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard. Because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills. We all know the U.S. space program suffered because of lack of funding from Congress, because many of the programs did not get approved.

You saw George Bush Sr.'s program of space exploration initiative that he announced from the steps of the National Air and Space Museum in D.C. We must commit ourselves anew to a sustained program of manned exploration of the solar system and, yes, the permanent settlement of space. Scuttle by Bill Clinton did not support it. So if you look at the U.S. space community, they had conversations in the 90s, 80s about establishing a lunar capability,

about looking at the moon as a base for then doing further deep space exploration. But somehow that has got lost today. Recently, there was a lot of news, though. NASA captured an image 4 billion miles away. We had a rough color from Hubble, but now we can definitively say the Ultima Thule is red. Yay! That's pretty impressive though, right? It feels like they're doing something. Yes, but I think the important point is that for China,

the strategy is so smart and so clear. It's not about doing just space science. It's not about just going somewhere and then coming back. It's about looking at space as a geography, as a place where you establish presence. We've been talking a lot today about space as a potential place for resources, but you also hear people talk about space in terms of defense, which sort of feeds into what you were just saying. You know, this idea of a space force is something that USVP Mike Pence talks a lot about. Space is a warfighting domain, just like the land, air and sea. And America will be as dominant there as we are here on Earth. How does security play into all of this?

If you look at the U.S. military's dependence on space assets for precision-guided missiles, for GPS, for how their nuclear submarines, where they are, how they need to proceed, it's all space, space assets. And think of a situation where such space assets are going to be vulnerable. And China proved that it could do it in 2007 when it conducted an anti-satellite test, when it killed one of its own all-weather satellites. In a sense, that particular scenario is very possible. And I'm

sure China is aimed at making sure that the United States feels vulnerable in terms of its defense. making sure that the United States feels vulnerable in terms of its defense. It also feels like there's a lot of momentum in the U.S. towards private space travel. People like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are putting a lot of resources into space tourism. How does that fit into all of this? Actually, that's a great question, because in my perspective, the U.S. private sector is now becoming the entrepreneur, becoming the foremost player in terms of space. And you're right, it's Elon Musk who's been able to prove the possibility of reusable launchers, which is fantastic in terms of cost.

The key to opening up space orbit, you know, at LEO and beyond, is rapid and complete reusability. There is this commitment from Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, which is looking at deep space exploration. So over many decades, I believe, and I get increasing conviction with this with every passing year, that Blue Origin, the space company, is the most important work I'm doing. So there are these long-term plans from famous entrepreneurs, but my contention is that that's great,

but the problem with the private sector in the U.S. is that that's great. But the problem with the private sector in the U.S. is that it's not organized. It's a disorganized body. And most importantly, it's going to be propelled more by profit than by having a long-term strategy of what your nation or state needs to do. We've talked a lot about the U.S., but what about other big players here, India, Russia? So if you look at the Indian space program, it's one of the successful space programs because if you know that India is the first Asian country to actually send an orbiter to Mars. Fantastic. Ocean already 25 kilometers altitude has been achieved. A velocity of 1.2 kilometers per second has been achieved. orbiter to Mars. And is able to do it in its first attempt. So that proves capacity and capability and cost. And then there is a plan to actually land on the far side of the moon. So you do have

another country in Asia that's coming up with these programs. And then you have Russia, which still has, by the way, it's the only Russia that at this point of time, along with China, that has the capability to transport human beings into space, because we still use their Soyuz space shuttle today. And liftoff. We have liftoff of Anne McLean, David Saint-Jacques, and Oleg Kononenko blasting through the Kazakh sky to the International Space Station. So the Russian program is interesting, but I do not see the kind of articulation of long-term goals from the Russian program like I see from the Chinese space program.

And that's an interesting departure from what you saw in the 1980s and 90s when Russia was ahead. The other thing about the Russian space program is that historically the Chinese have taken the help of the Soviet Union in terms of technology, in terms of understanding about space science and having their scientists being educated in Moscow. But today it's actually reversed. You have a lot of Chinese scientists who come from the U.S., who study in U.S. universities, go back and are doing a lot of innovative things. Is it fair to say that you're not seeing any other countries that are rivaling China when it comes to their strategy in space? It's important to understand that to rival a country, you need to have the same goal. So for instance, between the US and Soviet Union, you could compete with each other because both committed to a particular goal, and that is to establish the first human presence on the moon or to go to space first, right? But for China, the goal is so different,

as I see it articulated. It's not about being somewhere first, being proud. I mean, they're definitely proud about what the Chang'e 4 has done, but they have achieved this mission not because they want to prove that they are capable or it's a stunt to show that, hey, I'm able to do this. But it's such a long-term goal. You know, it's a goal for the next 20, 30 years. And in that frame, I do not see another country being able to rival China to commit that kind of resources. We're here in Canada, we're a middle power. We don't have the same kind of programs as these big global powers that we've been talking about today. We spend the least amount of all of the G8 countries on space

exploration. Given the cost and the scale of what's involved in staying in the game here, do you think it's even worth it for a country like Canada to bother here? The Canadian Space Agency, I think, started in the 1990s. And so it's not a new entrant to the field of space. Canada is known for, you know, forays into space, being part of other space missions, for instance, missions with NASA. And so I think for a middle power like Canada, the important role is to ensure that the rules of engagement, the norms that are set for future in space in collaboration with a body like the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, is extremely significant to say that countries like Canada, Australia,

New Zealand, which has a space agency, Luxembourg, UAE, is to actually take part within a multilateral framework because the importance that multilateral frameworks and countries coming together have in ensuring that great powers like China or the U.S. or India stays within the rules of that particular space industrialization concept that's going to become very important, is extremely significant and critical. For Canada to take part in a multilateral framework is a way forward. Nimrata, thank you so much for this enlightening conversation.

It's really wild to think how close we are to having people living on the moon. Thank you so much. It was a pleasure. The Chinese space program is planning to launch Chung'er 5 later this year. It will be the first Chinese probe to collect material from the moon's surface and bring it back to Earth. That's all for today.

I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks for listening to FrontBurner. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts. It's 2011 and the Arab Spring is raging. A lesbian activist in Syria starts a blog. She names it Gay Girl in Damascus. Am I crazy? Maybe. As her profile grows, so does the danger.

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