Front Burner - Conservative kingmaker picks his candidate

Episode Date: March 11, 2020

The temperature of the federal Conservative leadership race has just been cranked up by Alberta Premier Jason Kenney. Kenney stepped out of Alberta’s legislature to give an unambiguous endorsement of Erin O’Toole, and a jab at rival candidate Peter MacKay. Vassy Kapelos, the host of CBC’s Power & Politics, joins us to discuss why Kenney is taking sides and how it might influence the race.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Aaron and I have known each other and been friends for about 15 years, and I've always been a fan, partly because of his service as an officer in the Royal Canadian Air Force. My dad was an RCAF officer as well. But we got to work together very closely as ministers in Stephen Harper's cabinet.

That's from a video just put out this week. It's Alberta Premier Jason Kenney talking. In the video, he's looking very relaxed, taking an outdoor stroll through a snowy park with his old friend, conservative leadership candidate Erin O'Toole. Just a couple of guys in blue suit jackets. And while it might look like any number of videos addressing one political issue or another, well, it's actually a pretty big deal. In the video, Kenny is doing something provincial leaders rarely do, endorsing a candidate in the race for the party's leadership. I also believe Aaron understands the importance of uniting our big tent coalition, respecting all kinds of conservatives,

bringing them together. And so this video and an accompanying letter that came out just a few days earlier, it was a clear shot over the bow of the presumed front runner in the race, Jason Kenney's other former cabinet colleague, Peter McKay. And this leadership race,

with the price of oil plummeting, economic turbulence, fear of a possible global pandemic, well, the stakes, they seem very high. To help us parse this endorsement, what it means for the race, and how it reflects divisions within the conservative party, I'm joined by Vashi Capellos, host of Power and Politics. I'm Jamie Poisson. This is FrontBurner. Hey, Vashi. Hi, Jamie. Thanks for joining us today. Great to be back. It's been a while since you've been on, so I'm very, very happy that I got the chance to talk to you about this. Me too. Okay, so let's start off with this video of Jason Kenney endorsing Aaron O'Toole. His support for O'Toole is unambiguous.

In this video, he's walking with O'Toole and talking about essentially what a big fan he is. And why is Kenney saying people should support O'Toole? I think for a number of reasons. And lots of them are echoed in the letter, the endorsement letter that he put out initially saying that he was behind O'Toole. endorsement letter that he put out initially saying that he was behind O'Toole. It talks a lot about sort of this idea of a true conservative, the most conservative. And I've always been impressed by Aaron's approach to politics. He is a principled conservative. He doesn't run away from a fight. He doesn't get intimidated by the left or the media. He also references like his values and the kind of guy that he is, the person that he knew when he was working with him, his military history.

So he kind of sings from the song book that O'Toole has already been like a narrative that he's already kind of put out there about himself. And, you know, tries to say like, this is the guy that you should be voting for, the best person suited to run this party, this party being a very conservative one. And is that in keeping with O'Toole's record? I know that that's how he's been positioning himself in this race. But for those who are not super familiar with Aaron O'Toole, can you tell me a bit about his history? Yeah, for sure. I mean, it's hard to discern whether what's being put out now matches necessarily with his quote unquote record because it's not, I mean, he was a cabinet minister briefly when he held the Veterans Affairs

portfolio. And that was after like a terrible time in the Harper government where veterans were concerned, a lot of controversies. He ended up taking over the file, you know, not too long before the next election. So he didn't have a huge amount of time in there. And then since then, in opposition, he's primarily held the role of foreign affairs critic. He has been hawkish or, you know, quote unquote conservative on that file. I think of a few issues, for example, around Israel or around Huawei and China and doing trade with China, in which, you know, he expresses very traditionally conservative views, and he has so far.

The government has made serious missteps on security and trade issues with the Chinese government and is avoiding tough decisions when it comes to Huawei and other issues. So that kind of matches up with what he's putting forth. But on like a whole host of other issues, I'm thinking of climate change or the economy or social issues. It's not like there's a huge record that we have to hold him accountable to. I mean, he was an MP, so certainly he voted along conservative lines most of the time, if not always. But it's not as though he I mean, he did run as well as leader before. But there is just isn't a huge amount of stuff to sort of like compare and contrast. especially in this letter, is certainly insinuating that Peter McKay is something else. And so what is he saying there, sort of reading between the lines?

Yeah, I think that's a really important sort of observation to make in all of this, because this again feeds into one of the primary narratives that has emerged throughout this race, feeds into one of the primary narratives that has emerged throughout this race. And that is who can more accurately or best represent conservatives, right? Who is the most conservative, the true blue conservative? And what Aaron O'Toole has, I think, to a certain degree, successfully been able to do is say, I'm actually the true blue conservative. And all Peter McKay is going to offer you, members of this party, is a little bit to the right of Justin Trudeau. So liberal light. And he has really enforced that message over and over again, kind of spread it over and over again. And then you have Jason Kenney come

in, who is a symbol of that true blue conservatism to a lot of conservatives in this country, a very popular conservative at this time and in the past, echoing everything that Erin O'Toole has said. So I think while it has implications for Erin O'Toole, it also has implications for Peter McKay because I don't know necessarily if this will prove to be true, but you'd hear from a lot of pundits that perhaps one of his vulnerabilities is this idea that he's on the more progressive side, that he's not going to

be sort of a big tent guy who encompasses all the social conservatives or more hawkish conservatives. I mean, that's not always true, I don't think you can say, but I think that's the that's sort of the picture that's being painted. And Jason Kenney certainly enforced that. And in this letter, Kenney writes, quote, no one will have their deeply held beliefs dismissed as a stinking albatross under Aaron O'Toole's leadership. And that is like a pretty direct hit at something Peter McKay recently said, right? Totally. So that this is a huge deal. If you remember to just after the campaign and everyone is, when is Andrew Scheer going to resign? Does he have to resign? Should he resign?

Like that was the entire conversation around the conservatives following their performance in the last election campaign. And in comes Peter McKay and everyone's refraining from commenting. Like everyone of sort of significance in the conservative party doesn't say anything at this point. Just like, oh, we've got her back. Even Aaron O'Toole. I remember interviewing him. He's like, I'm an army guy. I have my leaders back. But then comes Peter McKay, who is doing an interview in Washington, kind of like a panel in Washington. And he ends up saying that those social issues, so all the stuff that happened during the campaign with Andrew Scheer, hung around Scheer's neck like a stinking albatross, and then says that Scheer couldn't

basically adequately deal with it. People did not want to talk about women's reproductive rights. They didn't want to talk about revisiting the issue of same-sex marriage. And yet that was thrust onto the agenda and hung around Andrew Scheer's neck like a stinking albatross, quite frankly. And if you look back now with the benefit of hindsight, that was basically the beginning of the end for Andrew Scheer because it didn't take long after that for others to pile on and then eventually, you know, him to actually resign.

And so that was, this comment from Kenny in the letter was a direct sort of shot at that and at what Peter McKay had said about Andrew Scheer. How big of a deal do you think this endorsement is? You know, is this the single biggest conservative endorsement that a candidate could get in the country? Or, you know, is there a bigger one? Like if Stephen Harper came out? Yeah, that's that's exactly what I think. It's the second biggest. I think it's a big one. I think Stephen Harper would certainly be there. There's no question. He's probably the most revered person by political leader, at least by conservatives at this point. If he were to come out and say vote for A or B, I think it's almost guarantees a victory for that person to a certain degree, unless something crazy happened. No indication that anything like that's going to happen right now. I'd be shocked. I mean, I know a few weeks ago there was a picture of him with Peter McKay,

and Peter McKay put it on his Twitter. I'd be really surprised if he weighed in, but you never know. I don't know. Who knows? I want to talk a little bit about the history between these men. You know, they are all former Harper cabinet ministers. Aaron O'Toole, Peter McKay was Harper's justice minister, foreign minister, defense minister, Kenny was his immigration minister. But also McKay and Kenny have like a lot of history here. They sat on opposite sides of this historical division in Canada's conservative movement, a division that's reflected in the two political parties, which back in 2003 merged to become the Conservative Party of Canada that we know today. In 2003, McKay, as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party,

agreed to merge with the Canadian Alliance, creating the new Conservative Party of Canada. And give us Cole's notes of how those parties merged, the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance, and where McKay and Kenney came out situated during that merger. So the merger is certainly significant to the history of the Conservative Party, and it persists in being significant because even now, all these years later, everyone's kind of like, oh, are the two sides going to be able to stay together? This idea that the more progressive wing of the party can merge with what was the reform slash alliance wing of the party, the more

true blue, I hate to use the term again, but side of the Conservative Party rather than the red Tory side. Now, it's hard to say exactly the implications for McKay and Kenney only because Peter McKay is often thought of because he was the leader of the progressive conservatives at a time as this, you know, major red Tory. He actually has a lot of pretty hawkish views that were, you know, evidenced through his time in the portfolios that you already named off. Who expressed regret over the death of innocent civilians, but maintained the government's support of Israel. For me, it's not a difficult choice between siding with a state that's being attacked by terrorists and a group of cold-blooded killers. But at the same time, there were lots of internal rifts that ended up persisting, right?

So it wasn't like a happy marriage. It wasn't an easy blending of families right away. There was a lot of back and forth and saying that it would never happen. And then it did end up happening. And then you had a leader like Harper who really, I think when I talk to conservatives, what they love so much about him was that he was able to keep those aspects of the party together, right? That like unity was his strong point. And he did it in a way that at the end of the day, everyone still respected him. That's not to say that those differences or ideological

cleavages didn't show themselves again around the cabinet table. And it's more than just ideology. They just didn't end up liking each other very much. So there's like a bit of a personal dimension going on here. number one fan, et cetera, et cetera. Most of them, and I underscore this with the caveat that this is gossip, but most of them were saying, wow, he really doesn't like Peter McKay to go this far. And we have known for a while, I have known for a while that there was personal differences between them, that they weren't each other's biggest fans. But it does say something that Jason Kenney is so much so not a fan of Peter McKay that even though he's very much so ahead of Aaron O'Toole in the polling,

in the polling, only in the polling, but in the polling, he still thinks it's worth whatever political risk is associated with it to endorse O'Toole. So as you mentioned, there are other players in this race, six other players who put their hats into the ring. Dr. Leslyn Lewis, social conservative from Toronto, Western Canadian candidate Rick Peterson, Rudy Husney from Quebec, sitting MP Derek Sloan, Jim Karahalios, known for his stance against the carbon tax. And finally, sitting MP Marilyn Gladue. And how are they all positioned? You know, if you're going to make a bet right now, and I hate making bets or predictions because I'm always wrong and I always lose money. money. But if I were to, at the end of March, when we come out with that list, when we see that list of final candidates, if there is someone who might end up making the cut beyond Erin O'Toole and

Peter McKay, it's probably Marilyn Gladue. She's a pretty well-known MP from Ontario who has a science background, again, against the carbon tax, but does have a climate plan. She's put out a lot of policies so far. She said there would be no national pharmacare plan. She says there will be no carbon tax. And also things when it comes to students as well as when it comes for first-time homebuyers. And so it'll be interesting to see if she's able to raise that full amount of money and sort of make the cut in the end.

Right, because not all of these guys and women have raised the necessary like $300,000 to even qualify at this point. So we still have to wait a little bit longer to see what the final list is. Yes, you're totally right to say that. We're going to wait until the end of March. So the first deadline was the end of February. That's when they had to get in a certain amount of money. I think it was $25,000 and 1,000 signatures from all across the country. That changes dramatically. They'll have to put in their full $300,000 as well as 3,000 signatures by the end of March. I believe both Erin O'Toole and Peter McKay have already submitted the whole package. Okay. And of course, we've got the convention, the leadership convention coming

up in June, and we're working on a bunch of stuff with you about that. So everyone stay tuned. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Vashi, you know, you mentioned earlier that you're not really sure where the cleavages are going to be here, like what big issues that we're going to see this leadership race kind of home in on. It could be like these ideological divides.

It could be over social issues. It could be over the carbon tax. But it also strikes me that the world is coming at us pretty fast right now. A lot of developments happening today in terms of COVID-19 in Canada and perhaps the most significant is now the country does have its first COVID-19 related death. A devastating day in the gleaming capital of Canada's oil patch. The price collapse has wiped out large portions of value from some of the biggest energy players. On the podcast yesterday we talked about how we are either in or very near a recession. And what impact do you think that could have

on the choice conservatives make about who will lead the fight? And I mean, adding to that, McKay, O'Toole, and Glad you have all said that if they get elected as leader, they're going to call an election for next fall. We could be doing this again in a couple of months. Yeah, they said they'll all attempt to force an election basically in the fall, which is a fascinating point of discussion, I'm sure, for another day. I think that you're super right to be to be sort of looking at the potential impact of what's coming at us and what what canada is headed for i think it's going to have a massive impact on this race and ultimately on

the person conservatives choose and i say that for a big reason if you look at a lot of polling and even if you just talk to a lot of people one of the big things that they trust from conservatives and that they like hearing about from conservatives is the economy. And what has proven successful for conservatives in the past is a criticism of, for example, the amount of spending the liberals are doing. And the liberals have a very detailed defense of the decisions that they've made, but it has certainly factored into the criticism that the conservatives have leveled at them. And often that is a very popular thing among its base. And I would argue even maybe beyond its base, too.

The Honorable Member for Carleton. Well, they're running a $27 billion deficit before the coronavirus crisis kicked off. And what did that buy us? Higher unemployment than the UK, the US, Japan, and Germany. Half of Canadians... Right, it's a vulnerability for the Liberals at times. This presents the Conservatives with a very different set of constraints in that now the economy might need stimulus. The economy has been slowing for a long time.

The Conservatives will argue that's because of decisions in part that the liberals made. But though the liberals plan to run a $26 billion deficit this year, and that doesn't even account next year for the spending promises they made in the campaign, if they want to make a difference to the economy, if the economy does end up getting hit as hard as most economists seem to think it might, they're going to have to inject, economists tell me, anywhere between $20 and $50 billion of stimulus. So just add those numbers together. So all of a sudden, you're the conservatives, and are you going to criticize the liberals for doing so? Can you criticize them for stimulating the economy when people are out of work or worried about staying home sick because their leave doesn't cover it? I mean, it becomes a very nuanced issue where you can't just say deficits are bad and the liberals are running your credit card up for no good reason. There

might actually be a good reason this time. And then you have the added complication of the economy not doing well and the impact on people's lives. And what is it all of a sudden as a leader or potential leader, you're going to get questions. What are you going to do to help these people out? What are you going to do to make the economy better? I think it really sort of focuses a debate and focuses sort of what you're asked about in a very different way than it would have, let's say, six months ago. Right. And I mean, the calculus might change. It just also might not be the right time to try and force an election. Yeah, I have no idea. I mean, this was a, I guess I get it from a fundraising perspective

and why that would rile people up who are really sick of the current government. Yeah, I get that. And I mean, I suppose they did make these comments last week or the week before when Trudeau was getting hit hard over the handling of the coastal gas link protests, right? Totally, the blockades. And I think, like, I get it from that perspective, but logistically it makes no sense because what's happening right now already, even think about the difference between when they sent that letter out and now when we're dealing with coronavirus.

Like, are people's sentiments towards the government exactly as they were three weeks ago when the blockades were happening? I don't know about that. What are they going to be in three months, in six months? What will be happening in the world? And what will this government be reacting to or doing? And how will Canadians view them? I mean, that political calculation has to be part of the decision-making process for the Conservatives if they're going to force an election. They have to think they're going to be able to win. And that's totally dependent on

what's happening at the time. So it's hard to say, you know, in six months, I think I'm going to have a good shot against Trudeau and the liberals when you don't know what's going to be happening in six months. And especially right now, where it feels like every three weeks, there's something new and huge that is changing the way Canadians perceive their politicians. Yes, absolutely. And of course, I know you mentioned that this was a conversation for another day, but they can't just call an election. They also need like the bloc or the NDP to saddle up beside them to bring this government down, which might not be the right time for those parties either. Yeah, the bloc doesn't seems really hesitant all the time to want to force an election. And the NDP is still not doing great financially. I

mean, that can all change as well, though, to, you know, to give some credence to the conservatives argument, like, who knows, again, but I just don't know. I just think it's so far out. Logistically speaking, again, get it from the fundraising perspective, but logistically speaking, it just seems very hard. I couldn't tell you what's going to happen in politics in six months or eight months. There's no way I could even begin to predict it. So it's funny and interesting that they can. All right. Vashti Kapelos, lots to talk about in the coming weeks and months.

Thank you so much. Can't wait. Thanks, Jamie. All right. So just an update on our Tuesday episode on the plunging stock market. If you haven't had a chance to listen yet, I actually learned a lot about what we could be on the precipice of and what options governments, including our own, are weighing. Well, markets seesawed a bunch on Tuesday, an indication of just how fragile the economy is right now. In an attempt to calm fears over the impact of the epidemic, which is increasing in the United States,

President Donald Trump said he's seeking very substantial relief to the payroll tax system there. He also said he was seeking help for hourly wage workers who might have to stay home because of the coronavirus. But no specific plans have been announced yet in the U.S. We're going to keep on top of this story. That is all for today, though. Thanks for listening to FrontBurner and talk to you tomorrow.